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@ Jeff Booth
2025-02-27 19:24:24
Speaking in probabilities versus guarantees but I think the highest probability is a chaotic and long transition (especially for those living in fiat) that continues to test the decentralized and secure nature of Bitcoin through our actions. In other words - how many people care?
Here is one very probable scenario that you can see playing out right now (and could see coming from a mile away if you think in first principles and understand human nature)
Most people are pricing bitcoin through US dollar - which ensures centralization of bitcoin and people taking more risk (ETF, microstrategy, etc, etc)
As that system (still inflationary) prices Bitcoin FAR higher in fiat terms, it also underpins a global control structure that is “more” solvent because of Bitcoins dramatic rise in price. (Strategic reserve)
Imperialism 3.0. 1. Gold/USD 2. Petro dollar/ USD 3. Bitcoin/USD
Again, this is all centralizing and many Bitcoin holders today will sell into this and reinforce it because it will seem more convenient and they will “get rich” (Similar to how most people still using Twitter today)
Eventually that system MUST attack Bitcoin and the nodes, economic nodes, decentralized nature of Bitcoin mining pools, communication that can’t be shut down like Cashu, Fedi, Nostr etc will decide its outcome.
If I were the centralizing system, I would not engage in that attack until I thought I could win (ie - not for a long time - but that would also allow Bitcoin to gain more utility as medium of exchange,
Protocol layers listed above, etc)
But, this attack should not be underestimated because it aligns with human nature in thinking short term.
If we prevail, which I think is probable ….(only because I know how deep this thought process goes in this community) then that becomes true hyperbitcoinization as the alternate chain fails and with it the exploitative control structure (including everyone who trusted counterparties)
Or to simplify - we decide what world we’re going to live in and as long as enough people choose truth, hope and abundance - “we” win.