-
@ 🇵🇸 whoever loves Digit
2024-11-26 17:14:01
Pretty basic thoughts, read only if bored. Mainly writing down for myself to check back on my own guesses later.
--------
Big social media corporations think about target demographics all the time, especially in their business plans, so today I started wondering how nostr is designed to appeal to each age group.
Some guesses...
# Youngins
Kids today will probably learn nostr exists while being brainwashed in school to think it's spooky. School projects won't start being hosted on nostr very soon, and the deep state will come up with insane talking points to lean on when students ask why.
Some kids will flock to nostr because their schools and dumb classmates are against it. "The cool faculty member" at any school might be on their side.
When they're older, the late kids will start noticing how they sound when they keep shitting on the thing that keeps being good, so they'll start trying to mix in a sense of neutrality like "I know it's supposed to be good but nostr is a dumb name" and eventually that will transition into using nostr, when someone they like is shadowbanned on a major platform or something.
They might tell the smart kids "sorry, you were right about nostr" or they might just pretend they invented nostr themselves to avoid admitting they were wrong.
I'm talking about college students here, obviously. The same all might apply for the younger kids too.
Time before nostr is #1 probably 5-10 years.
# Millennials / elder zoomers
If nothing else makes it happen first, each young adult will inevitably click onto a nostr client someday when a friend is like "I know you don't use nostr but look at the post I sent you, you don't even have to sign in."
I'm sure many will still think nothing of nostr until one of their favorite micro-celebrities starts using it, which is what I bet attracts a critical mass.
The rest naturally come after critical mass is achieved, like how people keep using X just because so many others are on it.
Time before nostr is #1 probably 5-10 years.
# Gen X
Probably won't reach critical mass on micro-celebrities alone. Might require major celebrities and younger people populating the protocol first. Might require White House level of adoption and recognition before deeming nostr "relevant" or "the new thing it's all moving to now."
Time before nostr is #1 probably 10+ years.
# Senior to gen X
Age groups above gen X might never widely adopt nostr. They don't seem to adopt any new electronic infrastructure without being forced to, which is perhaps helpful in defending us younger people from the most egregious of big tech's machinations.
Time before nostr is #1 with this age group, like I said, maybe never.
However, most of them will eventually use nostr a little bit, if not fully adopting it. If nostr is #1 with Gen X in 15 years, I think elders will hear enough about it from Gen X to *at least* make a throwaway npub for telling their grandkids "happy birthday" by year 20.
# Wildcard
Every age group could widely adopt nostr within 10 years if a critical mass of people can lead to an accelerated migration, so fast it makes centralized platforms feel like abandoned ghost towns. Digit arriving here might trigger this.
It's why many nostr proponents recommend deleting accounts on other platforms now, going nostr-only. I consider that strategy premature, but important to consider as nostr's user base reaches more effective numbers.
--------
I was way wrong about this Presidential election, so hopefully my brain is working properly on this.
Of course, I haven't addressed when people would adopt *a perfectly decentralized version* of nostr. That might take an extra 100 years, or something.