@ Felipe

🧠Quote(s) of the week:

'Bitcoin completed the stack. Which is why you should probably stack Bitcoin.'- Anilsaidso

🧡Bitcoin news🧡

On the 8th of October:

➡️The US Supreme Court has declined to review an appeal over the ownership of 69,370 Bitcoin seized from Silk Road, allowing the government to sell them. The U.S. Supreme Court declined to review a case concerning the ownership of 69,370 Bitcoin, worth $4.38 billion, seized by the government from the Silk Road marketplace. Battle Born Investments, which claimed rights to Bitcoin through a bankruptcy estate, had its appeal rejected after failing to convince lower courts of its claim. This decision clears the way for the U.S. government to sell the Bitcoin. Sources: Cointelegraph

A smart move by the U.S. government. They are poised to sell the only truly limited-supply store of value asset in the world for something it can and will just print more out of thin air itself. Logic, innit?!

➡️'YTD returns:

S&P500: +20.3%

Gold: +27.8%

Bitcoin: +48.2%

But if you only looked at Twitter, you’d think Bitcoin was performing the worst. It’s doing just fine. People are impatient and greedy.' - Bitcoin Isaiah

➡️Bitcoin rewards app Fold has filed an S-4 SEC IPO filing ahead of its planned merger with FTAC Emerald Acquisition.

If approved, Fold will be publicly listed on Nasdaq as "FLD."  - Bitcoin News

➡️MicroStrategy holds more Bitcoin than the US government. Matter of fact, MicroStrategy is the world’s first Bitcoin Development Company.

'It holds ₿252,220 on its balance sheet and did $2.5bn in volume today. JP Morgan is America’s largest bank. It has almost $4 trillion of fiat assets on its balance sheet, and yet today it did just $1.5bn in volume. This is only 60% of MSTR’s trade. Saylor did more volume today than JPM and Coinbase (America’s largest crypto exchange) combined. Let that sink in. MicroStrategy is beginning to make Wall Street’s biggest names look small.' - Bit Strategy

No S&P 500 company has outperformed MicroStrategy since they began stacking Bitcoin. MicroStrategy owns 252,000 Bitcoin.

Only 83 entities in the ENTIRE WORLD can own 252,000 Bitcoin. This means MSTR has achieved something only 82 other individuals, institutions, countries, etc. can achieve.

On the 9th of October:

➡️German parliament member Joana Cotar says "With the right Bitcoin strategy you have the potential to transform a nation."  Inflation is "stealing money from the people every month, Bitcoin is going to fix this"

On the 10th of October:

➡️On this day the Bitcoin Conference Amsterdam started. I only will share the most important bit of the whole conference, fellow Noderunner & Suriname Presidential candidate Maya Parbhoe: Suriname will be the next Bitcoin country!

I hope she will make it. She is a class act and with her determination, and passion for the people, but foremost her vision. I have no doubt she will lead the way and let Suriname thrive. How I love being part of the Noderunners group. The cult within the CULT!

➡️$9.57 trillion Charles Schwab survey shows almost half of its respondents plan to invest in Bitcoin and crypto ETFs

➡️'Ireland's Crime Bureau can't get access to drug dealer's $378m Bitcoin it "seized" in 2020. It has since gone up in value from $56m to $378. Not your keys, not your ₿itcoin!' -Bitcoin Archive

➡️'The SEC is suing Cumberland DRW, one of the largest crypto market makers, for selling assets like Solana as securities without registering as a securities dealer.' -Bitcoin News

1.5M BTC has been accumulated by whales (with >1K BTC on balance) over the last 6 months. There's really nothing to discuss here. What have you done over the last 6 months? Source

On the 11th of October:

➡️TD Bank has pleaded guilty and been hit with a record $3 billion fine for enabling drug cartel money laundering. Bank employees accepted bribes and overlooked blatant criminal activity by customers from Colombia and other regions. Criminals prefer US Dollars. Bitcoin is an open, transparent monetary network. I thought money laundering only happened in crypto… Will never cease to amaze me that these giga-settlements in tradfi happen, barely make news, and Elizabeth Warren in the US or Paul Tang here in Europe doesn't call for all banking to be shut down because of how its medium of choice for money launderers. Fascinating, innit?

➡️Metaplanet has purchased an additional ~108.99 Bitcoin for ¥1 billion at an average price of  ¥9,174,396 per Bitcoin. As of October 11, Metaplanet holds ~748.50 Bitcoin acquired for ¥6.965 billion at an average price of ¥9,304,655 per Bitcoin.

➡️Global Money Supply hits an all-time high of $107 Trillion. It’s just a matter of time until Bitcoin follows. Two weeks ago I shared a great article by Lyn Alden on this topic. You might want to read that.

➡️Mt. Gox trustee postpones deadline to repay creditors by one year to October 2025, reducing sell pressure concerns for Bitcoin.

On the 12th of October:

➡️El Salvador buys back $940 million of its outstanding debt to reduce its debt burden and take advantage of favorable market conditions. The future of El Salvador is debt-free The IMF is in despair.

On the 13th of October:

Lyn Alden: Sometimes I make an asset class return chart specifically to show how poorly bonds performed over the past 5 years or whatever random timeframe, and instead it just accidentally shows how dramatically bitcoin outperformed everything.

➡️ Bitcoin on exchanges just hit a 5-year low. However, there are still 2.5M Bitcoins that need to be withdrawn!

On the 14th of October: ➡️I will end this Bitcoin segment with some quotes from Larry Fink, BlackRock CEO on Bitcoin. "We believe Bitcoin is an asset class in itself." "We're having conversations with institutions worldwide about allocations." "Bitcoin will become as big as the US housing market" -- Larry Fink. That market, the housing market, is currently 50 Trillion. Let's estimate 100 Trillion by 2040. That is 76x Bitcoin's 1.3 Trillion market cap. In other words, Bitcoin is going to $ 5 Million. Source: the most important person in finance on planet earth.

💸Traditional Finance / Macro:

On the 11th of October:

👉🏽'The S&P 500 is now up over 22% this year, marking the best year-to-date performance in 24 years.

This is already DOUBLE the average annual return since 1957. In one year, the index has added a whopping $13 trillion in market cap. If the current pace of the market rally continues, the S&P 500 is on track to record a 30.0% gain in 2024, the largest annual gain since 1997. That also would mark the third-largest annual return since 1975, when the S&P 500 finished the year up 37.2%.' -TKL

🏦Banks:

On the 2nd of October:

👉🏽no news

🌎Macro/Geopolitics:

On the 8th of October:

👉🏽The Tax Foundation analyzed the Kamala Harris Tax Plan and concluded that it would result in the loss of approximately 800K full-time jobs, a long-run wage decline of 1.2%, and a long-run GDP of negative 2%. Source: https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/kamala-harris-tax-plan-2024/

'For the sake of completeness, the Tax Foundation is not blatantly partisan but its leaning is conservative and center-right. Still by its own findings Trump's economic plans would result in 684K job losses and 0.8% loss of GDP. Most estimates coming from other places are less favorable to Trump.'

Left, right...this is a feature of a system that requires billions of dollars in debt service.

👉🏽Hong Kong's Hang Seng index just crashed 9.4% today, posting its largest drop since 2008 and 2nd largest drop since 2000. Over the last 3 weeks, China's stock market was up nearly 30% on stimulus announcements.

The full thread you can find here: https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1843630549379981400

👉🏽Despite strong headline growth in GDP figures several people are struggling and working multiple jobs just to pay bills. Millions of Americans are working multiple jobs to afford basic necessities. 'The number of people working MULTIPLE jobs in the US hit 8.66 million in September, a new record. This is ~300,000 above the peak seen before the pandemic and ~600,000 above the 2008 peak. Furthermore, the number of part-time jobs has jumped by ~3 million over the last 3 years to a near-record 28.2 million. Concerningly, full-time employment has declined by 1 million since November 2023. Multiple jobholders have been rapidly rising over the last few years as Americans are fighting record-high prices.' -TKL

👉🏽 Without a fiscal union the Euro is shaky and makes little sense long term. But no country will give up its sovereignty to make a fiscal union. Especially not the rich/successful countries. The EU and Euro are failed projects. 'All currency unions in history based on common monetary policy only failed and disappeared. The Euro can only survive long-term if there was common fiscal policy, given political landscape in Europe it’s close to impossible.' -Michael A Arouet

It comes down to the question - are Northern countries (e.g. DE and NL) willing to pay for early retirement in France, or low tax morale in Italy?... We all know the answer.

Anyway... socialism will never work though.

👉🏽In 2023 the wealth tax increase in Norway was expected to bring an additional $146M in yearly tax revenue.

Instead, individuals worth $54B left the country, leading to a loss of $594M in yearly wealth tax revenue. A net decrease of $448M+. Capital moves where it's treated best. And so do people. That is because rich people don't pay taxes.

The same thing happened in France when socialists increased the wealth tax in 2012. The most successful simply left.' -Michael A. Arouet

Just to show how bad things are in France. Within 15 years debt/GDP almost doubled. France is running a 6% fiscal deficit during good times despite the highest tax burden in Europe.

Without deep structural reforms, it will sooner or later face a debt crisis. Great article by the economist: https://archive.ph/qrWcT

France stares into a “colossal” budgetary abyss. A fragile new government must try to plug the hole.

On the 9th of October:

👉🏽The CBO (Congressional Budget Office) just released the estimated 2024 federal budget results. Adjusting for weekend payments, the actual 2024 expenses totaled $6.8T for a deficit of $ 1.83T. This is a ~12% deficit increase from 2023. The US deficit reached $1.83 trillion in Fiscal Year 2024, or 6.4% of GDP, the largest deficit since 2021.

According to CBO data released Tuesday, this is $139 billion higher than in FY 2023 and ~$400 billion above FY 2022 levels. This comes as government spending increased 10% year-over-year to $6.8 trillion. The largest outlays were Social Security, debt interest payments, and Medicare at $1.5 trillion, $950 billion, and $869 billion, respectively. Meanwhile, federal debt is up $2.2 trillion over the last year and hit a record $35.7 trillion this week. US deficit spending remains at crisis levels.

On the 10th of October:

👉🏽The Fed's worst nightmare has begun:

1. Core CPI inflation rises to 3.3%, the first increase since March 2023
2. 258,000 people filed for unemployment this week, above expectations of 230,000. That is the highest reading in 16 months. Once the September jobs report is revised sharply lower (as usually in 2023/2024), it will reveal the Fed's nightmare situation. Rising inflation with rising unemployment. No bueno.

👉🏽Trump is leading Kamala by 9.4% on Polymarket, the widest gap since Biden dropped out.

Trump is even leading in Wisconsin and Michigan.

👉🏽China's Central Bank launches $70 BILLION funding program to stimulate the economy and capital market: • Cut reserve req ratio, releasing ~1 trillion yuan • Lowered key interest rates • Reduced mortgage rates • Issued 1 trillion yuan in special sovereign bonds • 100B Yuan govt investment • Child subsidies for families By cutting the reserve requirement ratio and lowering interest rates, the government aims to boost liquidity and consumer confidence.

On the 11th of October:

👉🏽September PPI inflation RISES to 1.8%, above expectations of 1.6%. (first time since June), and last month's PPI inflation number was revised higher. Both Core PPI and CPI inflation are now officially back on the rise.

On the 12th of October:

👉🏽'The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet declined by $66 billion in September to $7.05 trillion, the lowest since September 2020.

Since April 2022, the Fed has shrunk its portfolio of assets by $1.92 trillion. This is 40% of the $4.80 trillion the central bank bought during the 2020-2022 pandemic response. For the first time in history, the Fed is simultaneously reducing its balance sheet and cutting rates. At the September Fed meeting, Fed Chair Powell emphasized that balance sheet reductions will continue.' -TKL

Great news! Meanwhile, though, the US money supply hit $21.17 trillion in August, the highest level since January 2023.

This also marks a fifth consecutive monthly increase in the US money supply. Over the last 10 months, the amount of US Dollars in circulation has jumped by a MASSIVE $484 billion.

In effect, the money supply is now just $548 billion below a new all-time high. After a brief decline, the quantity of money in the financial system is surging again raising concerns about another inflation wave.

🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:

Great interview with David Zell:

THE SEPARATION OF MONEY & STATE Peter McCormack & David Zell discuss the political landscape surrounding Bitcoin & its role as an insurance policy for individuals & nation-states:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y39I7iQUL6U

Credit: I have used multiple sources!

My savings account: Bitcoin

The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. (Please only use it till the 31st of October - after that full KYC)

Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀

Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀

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⭐ Many thanks⭐

Felipe - Bitcoin Friday!

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