@ Felipe

🧠Quote(s) of the week:

"Bitcoin is an intelligence test, but it’s also an epistemic humility test. You don’t have to know everything about Bitcoin, nobody knows everything about Bitcoin. The question is, do you pretend you know when you don’t? And if you do you’ll be exposed." -Troy Cross

🧡Bitcoin news🧡

Let me start this week's Weekly Recap with the following tweet by Sam Baker (macromule):

The US dollar has peaked and will never recover. We can't save in dollars, we only spend them. River's thesis unveils the past, present, and future of money in society Let's start with how we got here:

Read the full thread here:

On the 11th of November:

➡️Mt. Gox distributed 30k coins over the last 10 days and the market didn't flinch. Also, they are basically out of coins with only 2k remaining.

➡️Bitcoin just closed the biggest weekly candle ever (It took Bitcoin 9 years to go from zero to $20k per coin. It just added $20k in a week), and today was the biggest daily gain in Bitcoin history!

On the 12th of November:

➡️Publicly traded AI firm Genius Group adopts #Bitcoin as a primary treasury asset and plans to acquire an initial $120 million of #BTC.

➡️$1 BILLION leveraged crypto positions liquidated as Bitcoin surged to a record $89,000 yesterday.

➡️Italy set to reject 42% tax on Bitcoin, and may not increase tax at all - Bloomberg

➡️ Unsurprisingly, The Bitcoin Price Follows Global Liquidity Joe Consorti: 'It followed the world's money supply perfectly, with a 10-week delay. Know where the printer is going? You know where Bitcoin is going. Perfection.'

Ergo: more fiat printing -> more Bitcoin pumping. Stack accordingly!

➡️Ethiopia uses 98% renewable energy and now represents 2.25% of global hashrate Bitcoin mining has also contributed $55M to the economy of Ethiopia - much of it surplus energy that would have flowed over the top of the dam. Source: https://www.mariblock.com/ethiopia-earns-55-million-from-bitcoin-mining-deals-in-10-months/

➡️Ai company Genius Group adopts Bitcoin as its primary treasury asset and will buy $120m Bitcoin. Genius Group will also start accepting Bitcoin payments. "We see Bitcoin as being the primary store of value that will power these exponential technologies"

➡️'Price range for Bitcoin in the 4th halving cycle if it follows a growth trajectory in the range of the previous cycles. Upper Bound ~ $4,500,000 Lower Bound ~ $140,000 Buckle up.' -Carl B Menger

➡️'Bitcoin ETFs have crossed $90b in assets, after yesterday's $6b jump ($1b in flows and $5b in market appreciation). They are now 72% of the way to passing gold ETFs in assets.' - Eric Blachunas

➡️Bitcoin dominance surges to a new 3.5-year high of 60.59% as Bitcoin approaches a fresh all-time high.

➡️'While small investors are actively accumulating, Bitcoin whales are in a distribution phase. Meanwhile, long-term hodlers maintain a steadfast approach, indicating a strong optimism in Bitcoin's appreciation.' -Bitcoin News

➡️ Nasdaq-listed Chinese microchip company Nano Labs now accepts Bitcoin as payment.

➡️Ballet CEO Bobby Lee: Bitcoin will surpass $90K within the week, $100K by year-end, and will hit $1 million within 5-6 years.

➡️There's an 88% chance that pro-Bitcoin Scott Bessent will become the next Treasury Secretary under the Trump administration, according to Polymarket.

➡️Tuur Demeester: "ECB bombshell: On Nov 4—the night of the US election—the authors of the highly aggressive anti-Bitcoin paper softened the language in their concluding paragraph:

In the original it said: "Current non-holders should realize that they have compelling reasons to oppose Bitcoin and to advocate for legislation against it, aiming to prevent Bitcoin prices from rising or to see Bitcoin disappear altogether." hat sentence now reads: "Current non-holders should realize that they have reasons to worry about Bitcoin and legislation favoring it." Also, the last sentence was altered, leaving out the words "implying wealth redistribution".

A remarkable change at such a pivotal moment in history. Were the authors instructed to make these edits by ECB top brass, once it became clear that Trump's pro-bitcoin team was winning the election?"

➡️Bitcoin hit $90,000 today for the first time, 90x higher than where it was 11 years ago. Satoshi Nakamoto is now the 19th richest person in the world. Bitcoin flips Saudi Aramco, the largest oil company in the world, to become the 7th largest asset by market cap.

Meanwhile, all Fiat currencies around the globe are at all-time lows against Bitcoin. Classic!

➡️BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF just did  +$1 BILLION in trading volume today in the first 25 minutes — MORE than yesterday’s opening.  The Bitcoin ETF has hit $40 billion in assets in a record time. It took IBIT just 211 days to hit the $40 billion threshold.

By comparison, the second fastest ETF took 1,253 days to hit $40 billion, or ~6 TIMES longer.

BlackRock also disclosed that it directly owns $91m Bitcoin through its own ETF. BlackRock manages $11.5 Trillion!

Meanwhile, Vanguard has 'protected' its clients from gains of approximately 104% by not allowing them to buy any of the Bitcoin ETFs. The irony!

On the 13th of November:

➡️ Bhutan now owns over $1 billion in Bitcoin. Monks are stacking hard. Bhutan will be remembered as one of the smartest countries of the 21st century. They will be set for centuries because they decided to move early on Bitcoin.

➡️Japanese public company Metaplanet gained $28  million in unrealized profit on their Bitcoin holdings.

➡️Trump administration so far: 11 of them are Bitcoin allies 7 of them are confirmed cryptocurrency holders 6 of them are confirmed specifically as Bitcoin holders Like Trump or hate Trump, the undeniable truth is that this White House roster is insanely bullish for Bitcoin. Hello, Trojan Horse!

➡️Recent social media hype and speculation about Bitcoin going to $100K may indicate a potential local top.

Historically, whales often counter the crowd's sentiment, buying when others are fearful and selling when they're exuberant, per Santiment.

On the 14th of November:

➡️El Salvador is now sitting on Bitcoin of more than $140 million! Remember when the IMF warned them about the risks in 2023? El Salvador started buying 1 Bitcoin EVERY SINGLE DAY on the 16th of November 2 years ago.

They literally started at the bottom of the bear market and now HODL: 6,158 Bitcoin worth $518 - ~profit $138m

➡️$1.4 TRILLION Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association reports holding Bitcoin through the Fidelity ETF - SEC fillings

Fiat millionaires:

✅Holders of 1,000,000 BTC

✅Holders of 100,000 BTC

✅Holders of 10,000 BTC

✅Holders of 1,000 BTC

✅Holders of 100 BTC

Holders of 10 BTC - 2024?

Holders of 1 BTC - 2029?

Holders of 0.1 BTC - 2033?

Holders of 0.01 BTC - 2037?

Bitcoin makes your dream (home) a reality…

Future generations will look at us who bought Bitcoin for under $100k the same way we look at boomers who bought houses for under $30k.

➡️Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock on Bitcoin: "Look, it's not a currency, it's not money… But, you know, I don't really see a role for it, certainly in the Australian economy or payment system." Meanwhile, the US is likely to start building a strategic Bitcoin reserve. So when I see stuff like this, oh well Australia is behind the curve.

➡️Pennsylvania proposes investing up to 10% of state funds in Bitcoin to diversify assets and combat inflation. If passed, PA would be the first state to directly hold Bitcoin. It's happening ladies & gentlemen!

Pennsylvania's economy is the size of Saudi Arabia’s economy, valued at around $1 trillion. Pennsylvania’s natural gas production parallels Saudi Arabia’s oil dominance. Game theory at the state level!

➡️Ethereum is dead. Bitcoin went from $70k to $90k in 8 days—an extremely bullish occurrence that should've sent alts much higher relative to BTC. ETH/BTC plunged to a 45-month low and lost critical 0.034 support. Meanwhile, Ethereum Foundation's official YouTube channel shilling CBDCs.

Parker Lewis: "So why is Ethereum collapsing relative to Bitcoin (1-8)?" Read here: https://x.com/parkeralewis/status/1857560022835700171

➡️As the price of Bitcoin surged last week the of Bitcoin fiat millionaires grew. 10,000+ new addresses were added to the Bitcoin fiat millionaire list in the previous week There are now 133,400 Bitcoin millionaires (addresses holding $ 1 million worth of Bitcoin), a new ATH!

➡️Saylor: Senator Lummis’ Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill would offset $16 Trillion of the US national debt. It’s economically wise and technically wise. Bitcoin is a manifest destiny for the United States.

➡️Goldman Sachs’ latest 13F filing reveals over $700 million of Bitcoin ETF holdings up 71% in Q3, signaling a major shift as it becomes BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust's 2nd-largest holder.

On the 15th of November:

➡️Satoshi-era Bitcoin wallet just moved 2,000 BTC for the first time since 2010. They held from $0.06 to $90,000 and it is now worth $179,000,000.

➡️ Bitcoin miners send over 45K BTC to exchanges.

➡️Public-listed company Solidion Technology to allocate 60% of cash flows to buy Bitcoin for its corporate treasury.

River: "It's been two years since the FTX collapse. More bitcoin than ever is in self-custody or with exchanges providing Proof of Reserves. It's critical to avoid history repeating itself."

➡️Only 1,003,525 addresses have more than 1 BTC. It’s a big deal to have 0.1 BTC today.

On the 16th of November:

➡️Bitcoin just made the HIGHEST daily close in history at $91,058

➡️A Kennedy who is about to oversee 27% of US Federal spending gives Bitcoin his strongest possible endorsement—for individual liberty, to balance the budget, and to save the dollar. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. says "Bitcoin is the currency of freedom, a hedge against inflation for middle-class Americans, a remedy against the dollar’s downgrade from the world’s reserve currency, and the offramp from a ruinous national debt."

➡️"Thumzup, a Los Angeles-based social media marketing firm, announced the purchase of $1 million in Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset." - Bitcoin News

➡️Sam Callahan: 'Only fourteen companies in the S&P 500 hold more financial assets than MicroStrategy and MicroStrategy’s balance sheet is the only one that won’t depreciate in value over time.'

On the 17th of November:

➡️Warren Buffett-owned Brazilian bank Nubank launches Bitcoin and crypto swaps to USDC. Nubank has 100 million customers in Latin America!

➡️Polish Presidential candidate publicly vows to use the SatoshiActFund model policy to create a ‘Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

"Poland should keep its currency reserves in Bitcoin. In a few years it will be apparent that it was a completely obvious decision.” - Slawomir Mentzen

➡️Tudor’s 13F filing last week is important and should be mentioned. Its portfolio is watched closely by asset managers, especially hedge funds.

'Paul Tudor Jones’ latest 13F filing reveals he owns $159.9 million of IBIT (4,428,230 shares), a 409% increase from June’s 869,565 shares. This made Bitcoin the third-largest non-options position in Tudor’s portfolio, behind SPY ($208M) and NVDA ($166M).' -Bitcoin News

Soon it will be its biggest holding!

➡️'The absolute worst 4-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Bitcoin is 24%. This means that even if you bought Bitcoin at the worst possible time and held it for 4 years, you would still achieve an average annual return of 24% on your money.

Running the numbers: Bitcoin price if it was to return 24% annually and held for the next.... 4 years: $215K 5 years: $267K 10 years: $782K

However, the current 4-year CAGR is 50%. Bitcoin price if it was to return 50% annually and held for the next... 4 years: $461K 5 years: $691K 10 years: $5.2M

How many years to retirement would you need if you earned a 24%, or 50% annual return on your money?' - Mark Harvey

On the 18th of November:

➡️1 satoshi = 1 Argentine Peso Parity achieved in Argentina

➡️On this morning: - MicroStrategy buys another 51,780 BTC for $4.6B - MARA announces $700 million convert to acquire more BTC - Semler Scientific raises $21mm ATM and acquires 215 BTC - Metaplanet issues ¥1.75B debt offering to buy more BTC The corporate Bitcoin race is heating up...

➡️MicroStrategy has acquired 51,780 BTC for ~$4.6 billion at ~$88,627 per Bitcoin and has achieved a BTC Yield of 20.4% QTD and 41.8% YTD. As of 11/17/2024, we hodl 331,200 bitcoin acquired for ~$16.5 billion at ~$49,874 per Bitcoin.

➡️'Mara Holdings to raise $1 BILLION at 0.0% interest to buy more Bitcoin after initial $750m offer was oversubscribed!

Free money to buy Bitcoin.' -Bitcoin Archive

➡️Global healthcare group Cosmos Health adopts Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset.

➡️Businesses are buying BTC faster than ever. Over $15 billion in Bitcoin in 2024, or 671 BTC/day.

MicroStrategy is leading the pack, but more is happening under the surface. Brief Q4 update on business Bitcoin adoption.

Read the great River thread here.

💸Traditional Finance / Macro:

On the 13th of November:

👉🏽 SMCI has officially fallen below $20 and wiped out nearly 2 years of gains as it becomes clear they will get delisted.

On the 15th of November:

👉🏽The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 are all set to close the week in the red. The Nasdaq is down -2.7% this week and set to post its LARGEST weekly decline since September 3rd.

On the 17th of November:

👉🏽TKL: 'For the first time in 22 years, the 10-year Treasury yield has exceeded the S&P 500's earnings yield. The S&P 500 equity risk premium has also fallen to -0.44%, well below its long-term average.

Over the last 5 years, the difference in yield has fallen by 5 percentage points posting one of the largest drops over the last 50 years. To put this differently, in theory, less risky 10-year Treasuries are now paying a HIGHER yield than the S&P 500. In the past, this move has suggested that the market is overvalued and expected stock market returns could be lower in the future.'

🏦Banks:

👉🏽 No news

🌎Macro/Geopolitics:

On the 13th of November:

👉🏽President Milei got the inflation rate from 25.5% to 2.7% in under a year. Bear in mind that the 2.7% inflation is per month, it is the lowest in 3 years.

👉🏽'The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is now below $7 TRILLION for the first time since August 2020.

In October, the Fed reduced its portfolio of assets by $53 billion, hitting $6.99 trillion. Since the March 2022 peak, the Fed has shrunk its balance sheet by $1.97 trillion. However, this is still $2.85 trillion above the pre-pandemic levels. Last week, the Fed reiterated that it will continue reducing its balance sheet. "Undoing" pandemic-era stimulus still has a long way to go.' -TKL

👉🏽US Headline inflation rose to 2.6% in October, matching expectations. Core CPI is steady at 3.3%.

Both headline and Core CPI inflation are now higher than they were 2 months ago. 8% mortgage rates are on their way. We now have MULTIPLE rising inflation metrics with signs of a weakening labor market. For the first time since September 2022, both CPI and PPI inflation are officially back on the rise. Hello, stagflation?!

And on that very same day news came in that...

👉🏽'The US median home sales price hit $386,970 in November, near the highest level on record.

Home prices surged 5.8% year-over-year marking the biggest increase in 2 years, according to Redfin. Home prices are now ~9% and ~14% higher than they were in 2022 and 2021, respectively. Since January 2021, home prices are up 29%. Meanwhile, the median asking price rose 5.0% to $393,125 and is also ~9% above 2022 levels.

Housing affordability is somehow still getting worse.' - TKL

This all while the mortgage rate continued to rise. If wonder why people are opting not to have children, money is mostly the number one reason.

👉🏽History may not repeat, but it certainly rhymes.

Trump is being handed a ticking time bomb... Fed Chair Powell says the Fed does not need to be "in a hurry" to reduce interest rates. He said, "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates."

Why did the Fed cut by 50 basis points in September?

'By prematurely cutting rates by 50 bps ahead of the election, even with inflation still running hot, the Fed has set the stage for an inflationary resurgence

The latest October inflation data released this morning confirms the trend, with the PPI coming in at 2.4%, hotter than the expected 2.3% Meanwhile, core PPI rose to 3.1%, ahead of the expected 3.0% increase The bond market is now in full revolt, with 10-year Treasury yields up nearly 70 bps since the Fed began cutting overnight rates in September

Rising borrowing costs will become a major headwind for Trump's pro-growth, and likely pro-inflationary, fiscal policies And it will soon become a major problem for investors paying a near record high 28x earnings in today's stock market' -Porter Stansberry

Good luck Donald getting inflation in check. Never gonna happen! If we only had deflationary money, sound money, it would change things for the better.

👉🏽'Another month, another $250 billion in deficit spending:

The US budget deficit jumped by a massive $257 BILLION in October 2024. By comparison, last October the US budget deficit came in at $67 billion, marking a 287% year-over-year increase. To put this in perspective, economists expected the October deficit to come in at $73 billion.

This puts the actual budget deficit 252% higher than what economists projected. Imagine a public company taking on 250% more debt per month than expected. The company would be bankrupt.' - TKL

On the 14th of November:

👉🏽While the German industry is imploding, the left-green government happily creates more and more positions. Who is supposed to pay for that? Europe and Germany urgently need their Department of Government Efficiency to stop this madness. Now don't me wrong things are no better if you cross the Atlantic Ocean. There are 23.5 MILLION government employees in the US, the most on record. Government jobs have risen by 3 MILLION since 2020. This is the only sector that has seen notable job creation. Meanwhile, the private sector lost jobs for 9 straight months.

👉🏽 “I’ve been proud to serve with my colleagues at the SEC who, day in and day out, work to protect American families on the highways of finance.” Gary Gensler released a statement suggesting he may be leaving the SEC. Shortly after, 18 U.S. states are suing the SEC for "unconstitutional overreach and unfair persecution" of the Crypto industry under Gary Gensler - Fox Business Eleanor Terrett

👉🏽The economy is strong in the US, really strong: The number of bankruptcies jumped by nearly 40% year-over-year in Q2 2024 to 6,276 cases, the highest level in 7 years. Chapter 11 filings hit 2,462, the most in 13 years. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell: 'In the case of a financial stability event, the Fed can use emergency tools.' Ergo: print the shit out of it!

👉🏽James Lavish: 'While everyone has been focused on the election and markets, the US government has quietly amassed another ~$100B of debt so far this month. Next stop, $36 trillion.'

Just to show you how ridiculous that number is: The US government has amassed $1T of debt in 4 months. That is $95k of debt per second... or $31k more than the median US salary.

On the 15th of November:

👉🏽Yeah history in the making. The US national debt surpassed $36 trillion for the first time in history.

It's now up $501 billion this fiscal year - which started less than 50 days ago...

👉🏽The Federal Reserve's emergency BTFP dropped by a shocking $30 billion this week, leaving only $26 billion left. Jerome Powell is pulling the liquidity rug away to trigger a crisis, exactly like Feb 2020.

👉🏽 Gotto give credit where credit is due. Credit card debt rose by $24 BILLION in Q3 2024 and hit $1.17 TRILLION, a new record. Credit card debt SKYROCKETED $400 billion over the last 3 years. All while $2.3 TRILLION in excess savings have been spent. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

On the 17th of November:

👉🏽 'The US Pentagon has failed its 7th audit in a row, unable to fully account for its $824 billion budget. Last year, the Pentagon couldn’t properly account for a whopping 63% of its $3.8 trillion in assets. This year, there was a $200 BILLION gap between assets and liabilities. The Pentagon's goal is now to pass an audit by 2028.' -TKL

They’d rather fail the audit than tell the truth about where the money went. Those responsible should be in jail or it will continue.

And people wonder - why Bitcoin with its transparent & verifiable ledger is considered a bad idea, a menace.

The US gold reserve hasn’t been audited since 1953.

Bitcoin is audited every 10 minutes, 24/7, and has never failed.

Which money do you trust the most?

👉🏽Michael A Arouet: 'This chart scares me each time I see it. Unfunded pension entitlements in major European countries are between 300% and 500% of GDP. Mixed with collapsing demographics it’s just a perfect storm brewing. There will be many freshly printed Euros coming as we go forward.'

Now look at that graph. You see that blue line/column of the Netherlands. That is the reason, why the EU is interested in the Dutch Pension savings.

It is the only capital-funded pension in Europe, and much of its value is invested in stocks globally. Both our pension funds for example are in stocks. But it depends on which company or organization you work for. The only thing that will save Europe are robots / AI. Not gonna happen!

Maybe we, the Dutch, should consider a Nexit? Because there will be no choice but to debase the EURO to bail out these irresponsible programs, for example, look at Spain, France, Austria, or Italy.

Look at the countries with a significant blue bar. None are in the Euro, except for the Netherlands.

'Monetary union' is rapidly turning into "we all want to share with those who have saved up more than we do". 'Now give me my money' because we are one big EU family, right?

I am going to end this week's Weekly Recap with the following graph...

...as it is the only Bitcoin graph you need to understand.

🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:

Mr. Obnoxious: 'Steve Baker is a former Conservative Member of Parliament (MP) for Wycombe, serving from 2010 until 2024.

In this episode, we discuss pressing economic and political issues such as the challenges of government debt, inflation, and the often overlooked consequences of central bank policies. With a focus on the impact of taxation and government spending on individual freedoms and economic productivity,. We also discuss the structural inefficiencies in politics and examine the growing disconnect between politicians and economic realities.

Reflecting on his experience in Parliament, Steve emphasises the need for public education on economic fundamentals, a paradigm shift in policy-making, and personal financial resilience, exploring how Bitcoin and free-market principles could offer solutions to a system he believes is deeply flawed.'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKbK1JKembY

'This was the most valuable conversation I have listened to in quite some time. Steve is clearly very smart, speaks these uncomfortable truths (to all sides), and gives you a lot to think about.'

I couldn't agree more!

Credit: I have used multiple sources!

Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀

Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.

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⭐ Many thanks⭐

Felipe - Bitcoin Friday!

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