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@ Vhtech777
2025-05-25 08:14:30
1. Phases in a Bitcoin Cycle
A typical Bitcoin cycle lasts about 4 years, with 4 main phases:
a. Accumulation
Occurs after a bear market, when prices are low and stable.
Market sentiment: pessimism, low public interest.
Long-term believers (smart money) accumulate during this phase.
b. Markup / Bull Market
Begins after a halving event, with new capital entering the market.
Sentiment: excitement, FOMO (Fear of Missing Out).
Prices rise sharply, surpassing previous all-time highs, lasting ~1 to 1.5 years.
c. Distribution
Price growth slows, moves sideways, or forms a double top.
Sentiment: uncertainty, profit-taking.
d. Markdown / Bear Market
Sharp decline after reaching a peak (often 70–85% drop from ATH).
Sentiment: panic, loss of confidence.
Lasts about 1 to 1.5 years before the cycle resets with accumulation.
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2. Historical Cycles (by Year)
Cycle Halving Bull Market Peak Bear Market Bottom
2012–2016 Nov 2012 Dec 2013 (~$1,100) Jan 2015 (~$150)
2016–2020 Jul 2016 Dec 2017 (~$20,000) Dec 2018 (~$3,200)
2020–2024 May 2020 Nov 2021 (~$69,000) Nov 2022 (~$15,500)
2024–2028 Apr 2024 ??? (expected peak in 2025?) ???
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3. How It Works
Supply shock (Halving) = Lower selling pressure from miners.
Rising demand as mainstream attention and FOMO grow.
Capital rotation: Profits from altcoins and other assets flow back to Bitcoin.
Market psychology plays a huge role: greed vs. fear.
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4. Practical Strategy
Use DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) during accumulation phases.
Avoid FOMO buying near market tops, especially during media hype.
Plan exits and take profits during the distribution phase to preserve gains.
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