@ Hodler

There is consensus on the internet that the chaotic times we are living is a result of the 4th turning. The trust in old institutions that originated after WW2 is breaking down, which causes chaos around the globe. Most people who experienced the last 4th turning already died. The people currently alive know that authoritarianism is bad, but they don’t realise it because they never lived it. That’s why we have to learn the same hard lessons again.

Another widely accepted view is that this 4th turning will last until at least 2030. That WW3 is still ahead of us and that we will have another 6 years of increasing chaos. Even Wikipedia claims that the current 4th turning started just before the financial crisis in 2008. Since a turning generally last around 20 years but can take some longer, it would make 2030 a good ETA to end.

*According to Wikipedia the current 4th turning started in 2006 and will end in 2033

Recently, another scenario where the 4th turning ends around 2025 popped up in my head. The more I been thinking about it the more supporting arguments I find. What if we are already further in the current 4th turning than everyone thinks? What if we have just one or two years to go before the momentum turns positive again?

*This article is not a prediction, nobody knows the future. However, it’s an alternative scenario that’s in my mind supported by plenty good arguments. I like to think in probabilities, and at the time of writing I give this scenario around 40% chance. What do you think? Leave me a comment!

Could the 4th Turning Almost be Done?

What if the current 4th turning is almost near its end? What if it only last until around 2025? Would it be possible that we will get our D-Day moment somewhere in the coming two years followed by a massive positive momentum shift in society that signals the 1st turning? Or could it be that the transition isn’t that obvious this time and that we slowly smooth into the first turning without a D-Day moment this time around?

2025 would be exactly 80 years after the end of WW2, which is historically exactly a full cycle. Further, if we consider 9/11 as the start of the 4th turning instead of the Great Financial Crisis, it last already 24 years and is already overdue to end. There is more to support this thesis:

The Last 4th Turning

I know many people will get triggered by the comparison between the 2020’s and Nazi Germany. If this is you, stop reading now and go read Donald Duck or some happy fairytale. If you are willing to accept reality, you'll see an obvious similarity between those two era’s:

They are both 4th turnings with a massive wave of collectivism including extreme authoritarianism like censorship, movement restrictions, democide and war. Both times are universally recognised as a time of global chaos and a clear negative momentum in society.

1940 VS 2020

The corrosion of the institutions in Germany started long time before it became obvious in WW2. The real global chaos only took place over the last 5 years of the 4th turning in the form of a massive hot war, occupation of many countries and a genocide known as the Holocaust.

If you compare this to today, I would say that the global chaos started in 2020 with global lockdowns, movement restrictions, heavy censorship and forced medical interventions followed by some very nasty wars. If this last to around 2025 it would be a perfect rhyme!

When Did the 4th Turning Start?

What about the beginning of the 4th turning? Did it really start in the Great Financial Crisis as most people say? In my mind the trust in the institutions really started to break down after 9/11 in 2001. This was the event where the government violated our basic rights on a global scale by reversing the burden of proof and started multiple forever-wars.

Before 9/11 they had to prove whether you are a terrorist, now you have to prove that you are not. Innocent until proven guilty was a universally accepted basic human right in the entire Western world. After 9/11 this was violated on a global scale and this was quickly normalised. Our rights would later be violated again in the same way, when healthy people had to prove that they aren't sick.

It marked a critical breakdown of basic human rights, it was a fundamental change in society and it was the first major step into authoritarianism. In my opinion, this was the end of the free West and the start of the modern surveillance state we lived under since, which is clearly getting out of the hand today.

Realisation Will Come Later

Authoritarianism doesn’t get suddenly implemented, it comes in a long serie of tiny changes. The media is spreading the narrative that these changes are good or necessary. This is how society slowly slides into full blown authoritarianism without the population realising it.

Even in Nazi Germany most people didn’t realise how bad their regime was until it was all over and the Germans were asked for an explanation for what happened. A very famous answer from the general German population after the war was ‘Wir haben das nicht gewurst’, which means ‘we didn’t know’.

Westerners today are busy living their life while their government does really evil shit. The media simply doesn’t tell them what happens or they push the narrative that it is necessary for ‘our safety’. What’s considered murder or genocide when read in a history book, is considered normal and necessary when our government does it today.

People living a 4th turning are clearly not realising how bad it actually is, probably because of a combination of 'the boiling frog' effect, the inability to zoom out because the focus on 'the current thing' and denial of a different worldview. This realisation will only come later when it’s all over and they look back on this crazy time.

The Winner Writes History

We all know and recognise the evil and destruction of WW2. Most of us are probably expecting to get about the same in this 4th turning. We are still far away from that. Aren't we?

The evil stories of the Nazi’s are written by the Allies after the 4th turning ended, while our perception today is formed by the same institutions that cause all the death and destruction. Could it be that the winner this time will write history very differently? Who is going to be the winner this 4th turning and how will history be written?

Our Perspective VS The ‘Winner’ Perspective

Our institutions told us that Afghanistan had to be invaded because scary terrorists were hiding in the caves. Iraq had to be invaded because there were dangerous weapons of mass destruction. We had to do KYC and AML because we had to defund terrorists.

Businesses had to be closed to prevent a dangerous virus from spreading, people had to be injected because it was the only way out, Ukraine had to be supported because otherwise crazy Russians would invade all of Europe and Gaza had to be attacked because they are all terrorists.

What if the winner writes history as follows? The regime murdered 176.000 people in Afghanistan and 150.000 in the Iraq war to enforce the fraudulent dollar standard. Then they starved 500.000 Iraqi children to death with sanctions. KYC and AML rules prohibited billions of people from connecting to the global financial markets which kept them in poverty and caused starvation on a massive scale.

Many businesses were destroyed to monopolise giant corporations and centralise power over the economy. 5 billion people were forced into a medical experiment, which caused massive harm and death, to aim for total control over the people through movement passes and make a lot of money for corrupted organisations in the process.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KP1OAD9jSaI

It’s Probably much Worse Than We Realise…..

Since the globally forced lockdowns and medical experiments, there is an excess death rate almost all over the world. It’s very hard to figure out how many people died, because the responsible people are still in power, and the media is totally ignoring it. Since 5 billion people are injected, a 1/500 death rate would mean 10 million deaths.

This means that if you believe the death rate was over 1/500, this forced medical experiment was about as deathly as the Holocaust. It’s very speculative at this moment, but a 20% excess deaths in most of the world for multiple years reveals that it might be much bigger than that. We will probably only know and realise when the victor writes history in the next 1st turning.

Do We ‘Need’ a Full Blown War Until 2030?

The consensus on the internet today is that we still have at least 6 years of chaos to go and that WW3 in the form of a massive hot war is inevitable. I call the thesis in this article a white pill scenario, because I believe this doesn’t have to be like that at all. I think there are some good reasons why it may not happen.

Firstly, as described earlier, we might have had a level of death and destruction comparable to the last 4th turning already, we just don’t realise it yet. We may be living it already, but ‘wir haben das nicht gewurst’ until the current regime falls and the winner writes history.

Secondly, humanity tend to get less violent over time, which could reduce the amount of blood spilled in this 4th turning. New technologies could change how war is done. It makes a lot of sense that war was done in an industrial way (tanks and guns) during the Industrial Age, while it would be mostly an information war in the Information Age.

Thirdly, all global powers have nuclear weapons this time around. This enforces the game theory that the biggest powers practically can’t invade each other, because this would mean total destruction of both. Could this be the reason that we see all these relatively small proxy wars and biological warfare instead of a full blown global hot war?

Lastly, if you understand that war is generally used as a way to default on a failing financial system, was this done with the massive Covid liquidity injection? This suspicion was strengthened after I heard how macro trader Raoul Pal described how the current monetary situation looks a lot like the post-WW2 era. Have we had our WW3 already in a very different format?

Is Bitcoin a New Institution for the Next Turning Cycle

Bitcoiners generally think that Bitcoin is a tool to help us through the 4th turning. This can be true, but what if is the new institution to replace the central banks in the new turning cycle? What if Bitcoin crossing te Chasm, which is expected to happen soon, is the Bretton Woods of this cycle?

Bretton woods happened at the end of the war and kicked off the 1st turning. It didn’t happen before the war. Is Bitcoin mass adoption marked by the Bitcoin ETF’s also signalling the end of WW3 like Bretton Woods did for WW2? It would be a perfect rhyme again!

Please let me know what you think in the comments and follow me for more!