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@ Brunswick
2025-04-10 02:58:16Assumptions
| Factor | Assumption | |--------|------------| | CO₂ | Not considered a pollutant or is captured/stored later | | Water Use | Regulated across all sources; cooling towers or dry cooling required | | Compliance Cost | Nuclear no longer burdened by long licensing and construction delays | | Coal Waste | Treated as valuable raw material (e.g., fly ash for cement, gypsum from scrubbers) | | Nuclear Tech | Gen IV SMRs in widespread use (e.g., 50–300 MWe units, modular build, passive safety) | | Grid Role | All three provide baseload or load-following power | | Fuel Pricing | Moderate and stable (no energy crisis or supply chain disruptions) |
Performance Comparison
| Category | Coal (IGCC + Scrubbers) | Natural Gas (CCGT) | Nuclear (Gen IV SMRs) | |---------|-----------------------------|------------------------|--------------------------| | Thermal Efficiency | 40–45% | 55–62% | 30–35% | | CAPEX ($/kW) | $3,500–5,000 | $900–1,300 | $4,000–7,000 (modularized) | | O&M Cost ($/MWh) | $30–50 | $10–20 | $10–25 | | Fuel Cost ($/MWh) | $15–25 | $25–35 | $6–10 | | Water Use (gal/MWh) | 300–500 (with cooling towers) | 100–250 | 300–600 | | Air Emissions | Very low (excluding CO₂) | Very low | None | | Waste | Usable (fly ash, FGD gypsum, slag) | Minimal | Compact, long-term storage required | | Ramp/Flexibility | Slow ramp (newer designs better) | Fast ramp | Medium (SMRs better than traditional) | | Footprint (Land & Supply) | Large (mining, transport) | Medium | Small | | Energy Density | Medium | Medium-high | Very high | | Build Time | 4–7 years | 2–4 years | 2–5 years (with factory builds) | | Lifecycle (years) | 40+ | 30+ | 60+ | | Grid Resilience | High | High | Very High (passive safety, long refuel) |
Strategic Role Summary
1. Coal (Clean & Integrated)
- Strengths: Long-term fuel security; byproduct reuse; high reliability; domestic resource.
- Drawbacks: Still low flexibility; moderate efficiency; large physical/logistical footprint.
- Strategic Role: Best suited for regions with abundant coal and industrial reuse markets.
2. Natural Gas (CCGT)
- Strengths: High efficiency, low CAPEX, grid agility, low emissions.
- Drawbacks: Still fossil-based; dependent on well infrastructure; less long-lived.
- Strategic Role: Excellent transitional and peaking solution; strong complement to renewables.
3. Nuclear (Gen IV SMRs)
- Strengths: Highest energy density; no air emissions or CO₂; long lifespan; modular & scalable.
- Drawbacks: Still needs safe waste handling; high upfront cost; novel tech in deployment stage.
- Strategic Role: Ideal for low-carbon baseload, remote areas, and national strategic assets.
Adjusted Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)
| Source | LCOE ($/MWh) | Notes | |--------|------------------|-------| | Coal (IGCC w/scrubbers) | ~$75–95 | Lower with valuable waste | | Natural Gas (CCGT) | ~$45–70 | Highly competitive if fuel costs are stable | | Gen IV SMRs | ~$65–85 | Assuming factory production and streamlined permitting |
Final Verdict (Under Optimized Assumptions)
- Most Economical Short-Term: Natural Gas
- Most Strategic Long-Term: Gen IV SMRs
- Most Viable if Industrial Ecosystem Exists: Clean Coal
All three could coexist in a diversified, stable energy grid: - Coal filling a regional or industrial niche, - Gas providing flexibility and economy, - SMRs ensuring long-term sustainability and energy security.