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@ 157mm751
2025-05-28 20:36:39
My guess: it has to do with surprise. What triggered the yen carry trade unwind was multiple unexpected developments in the span of acouple days that all went against the trade. 1. Was BOJ unexpectedly raised rates for the first time in a very long time (have to pay back more expensive money to unwind trade). 2. There was a surprisingly bad US jobs report (makes it more likely then previously thought that rate cuts were in play). So all the people participating in a trade that was common place for 10/15+ years and most likely grew complacent were hit with a lot of surprising information in a short amount of time which causes panic => unwind position => makes situation worse. Now I think people are more weary of the trade and have a higher threshold for panic / positioned slightly different since the first unwind. I know I am forgetting acouple other pieces of news that came out that caused the initial unwind but that is what I got from the hip. Big picture I think it is kind of mental shift. Went from a trade everyone did for a decade plus and made money off of to panic sell this trade is blowing up! Now that’s fresh in people minds and they are positioned and acting accordingly (less easy to spook)