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@ TFTC (News Bot)
2025-06-07 13:01:39Key Takeaways
Leon Wankum, a real estate expert turned Bitcoiner, presents a powerful argument that Bitcoin is emerging as the new “hurdle rate,” outpacing real estate as the preferred store of value in a shifting financial landscape. As the 18-year property cycle nears its end amid high interest rates and imbalanced markets, Bitcoin’s scarcity, performance, and optionality are prompting capital allocators to rethink traditional strategies. Institutions are beginning to reallocate cash flows and refinance properties into Bitcoin treasuries, while new yield-bearing Bitcoin instruments like Strike, Strife, and Stride offer compelling alternatives to bonds and property. Wankum envisions a gradual transition to a Bitcoin standard, facilitated by dual collateralization and designed to avoid economic disruption as Bitcoin steadily replaces legacy financial infrastructure.
Best Quotes
"Bitcoin is starting to become the new hurdle rate that all other financial products have to abide to."
“No asset—not even prime real estate—can compete with Bitcoin’s long-term performance and absolute scarcity.”
"You can refinance a property and allocate to Bitcoin without selling—this is how many are making the transition."
"Strategy (MicroStrategy) has enough Bitcoin to cover preferred stock dividends for over 200 years."
"20% of our property cash flow into Bitcoin outperformed the 80% left in fiat."
“Bitcoin is digital real estate—but better. Scarce, global, and doesn’t need maintenance or tax sheltering gimmicks.”
“If it’s just 1% of the real estate market, that’s $3 trillion. And that’s enough.”
"A smooth transition, not collapse, is the optimal path forward."
Conclusion
This episode explores how Bitcoin is overtaking real estate as the global store of value, with Leon Wankum offering a rational, experience-based framework for understanding this shift. While institutional inertia slows adoption, capital flows are beginning to reflect Bitcoin’s growing dominance, as new financial instruments and treasury strategies emerge. Leon advocates for a thoughtful, evolutionary transition to a Bitcoin standard—one that prioritizes stability, practical integration, and long-term value creation across the global economy.
Timestamps
0:00 - Intro
0:50 - Real Estate
12:36 - Bitcoin for real estate investors
17:44 - Bitkey
18:39 - MSTR products and opportunity cost
30:43 - Unchained
31:13 - Cash flow alternatives
37:40 - Strategy risks
44:41 - Smooth or chaotic transition
50:58 - Is this cycle different?
56:42 - Tradfi degeneracy
1:02:00 - Leon’s Book - Digital Real EstateTranscript
(00:00) Other than real estate, there were little investments that performed better. Few were aware of the existence of Bitcoin. As people become more aware, they will likely also sell off their properties. Bitcoin as a near-perfect form of money is starting to become the new hurdle rate that all other financial products have to abide to.
(00:19) Instead of buying a regular bond issued by a nation state, you can actually buy a fixed income product issued by Strategy. This is a product that could potentially tap into the real estate market. If it's just 1%, that's 3 trillion. And that's enough. They are starting to weigh the opportunity cost of not putting money into Bitcoin.
(00:36) But very few are able to comprehend the necessity of quickly investing large part of the capital into Bitcoin. Every 18 years will have a correction on housing. We're bringing in a housing expert to talk about the real estate market and Bitcoin corporate adoption. in the crazy frenzy that's going on right now in public markets.
(01:04) Leon, welcome back to the show. Thanks for having me back. It was great seeing you even though it was briefly in Vegas last week. I caught you literally as I was running to the airport off the stage. Yeah. And uh look, I'm pull that back up because I think this is a good jumping off point. We'll start with like a personal story.
(01:24) I'm currently in the middle of a move right now, but decided to rent a house because I was looking at the prices for housing in the places I'm looking to buy and they were they were too high. Not only were they too high, we put a bid in on one house and it wound up going a million dollars over asking.
(01:44) And I think over here in the United States, this is a big topic of discussion right now, which is the real estate market feels a little toppy. Prices are still very high, very sticky. Rates are still very high. Uh, and that's one thing I'm trying to discern as somebody who would like to buy a house in the next few years, a forever house for my family, what is going on.
(02:08) And as we can see here, Red Red Fin reported earlier this week that 34% there are 34% more sellers in the market than buyers. At no other point in records dating back to 2013 have sellers outnumbered buyers this much. There are a total of $698 billion worth of homes for sale in the US, up 20.
(02:29) 3% from a year ago in the highest dollar amount ever. So, it seems like there's a ton of people who have rode the real estate market and they're being a bit stingy on pricing and we're waiting for a correction. Is that your take on this? Yeah, we definitely need to wait for price equilibrium to build because since 2008 really since we had low interest rates um prices were skyrocketing and now with a different interest rate environment.
(02:57) Um what I personally also feel is that people are not willing to sell their houses for a price that they believe is not what they could get because they still have the prices in mind that they were able to receive 2 three years ago and the buyers are not willing to pay prices that people want because interest rates are higher meaning the cost of capital and the cost of borrowing went up.
(03:21) So I think this is a healthy um and a healthy um development. We need a price equilibrium. We need um demand and supply prices to match. It's going to take a long time. I think it's also it also depends on interest rates. If Powell is going to um lower interest rates, which I don't think he will, even though that's something that the president would like him to do, but I don't think he will because it would cause inflation to go up again, especially in in goods and services and groceries.
(03:51) And um judging by that, I think interest rates will stay above 3% at least for the foreseeable future. Meaning I believe that real estate prices will come down a little bit till we meet that equilibrium. But something that's important to to remember which makes it a little bit odd that because as a Bitcoiner when you look at housing, I think you constantly think now it's going to crash, now it's going to crash.
(04:15) But the reason it's not really going to crash is as soon as new money is being introduced into your economy or as soon as interest rates are lowered that money is being funneled into real estate and also the existing system that is depending on real estate as collateral has an interest in propping prices up.
(04:34) So this can go on for another 10 or 20 years I think. I mean there could be there's definitely a correction that we can see right now and I personally wouldn't get into uh real estate development at this point if you'll ask me from the perspective what's the better investment of course that is Bitcoin but I just want to make a point that this can go can go on for longer than we think because housing is limited not as limited as Bitcoin but there's something called the 18-year property cycle and it says that every 18 years, we'll
(05:08) have a correction in housing. And the reason for that is if the money supply is expanded and that money goes into land, it's not going out of land because land is limited. It's similar to Bitcoin. But what happens is that after around 14 15 years, prices start to come down and then they find a new price equilibrium which is higher than when the cycle started.
(05:33) And we are at the end of this 18-year property cycle. and I had suggest that prices will fall until 2026 and then in 2026 if interest rates are lowered I think prices can find price equilibrium and then possibly move up in nominal value of course if you start now accounting for real estate and bitcoin it's a whole different story I know talked from the lens of a fiat um based system yeah that note on pal and the fed is interesting that it It's very obvious Trump's wanted him to lower rates since before he even got elected.
(06:09) But I was reading an article yesterday that made a lot of sense to me, which is he's not going to lower rates for multiple reasons. One of which you mentioned, which is it would it would reignite inflation, which nobody wants to see right now. And then number two, profit margins are going up because the productivity uh increases due to AI.
(06:32) I mean, and we're still at the early stages of that, um, where you have many of the big big tech, the MAG 7 beginning to lay off people because they're creating all these efficiencies via AI. So, we're able to increase productivity and profit margins and so there's no reason to to lower rates from that perspective, which agreed.
(06:58) Yeah, absolutely true. Yeah, which is uh you know it'll be it's crazy the confluence of events that are happening right now whether it's real estate market looking a little toppy at least temporarily the interest rate environment the progression of AI and the adoption uh by many large companies and small companies alike and then you have Bitcoin sitting over here sitting over $2 trillion establishing itself as a $2 trillion asset and it still seems a bit fringe where um where we are certainly as Bitcoiners, individuals