-
@ supermass
2025-05-30 00:54:55
To be clear, I think this is hilarious. Some quotes:
“One difficulty with gold is that there are no conventional ways to measure or assess it, other than recognising it as a long-term store of value.”
aka subjectively.
“I answered [the question of how gold’s price rises] several years ago by modelling gold as if it were a bond.”
😂 Let’s model a rock as if it were a financial contract because ??
I will admit the following analogy of gold as a bond issued by God is 💯. Good analysis of certain fundamentals.
The Formula (see photo).
Looks legit.
And then, the coup de grace:
“The number 4 is the calibration with the best fit using a regression model.” Giovanni would be proud. Truly a special, mathematical mind to comprehend such a solution to valuation.
Next, a strong continuation,
“[Gold] is more volatile than the 10-year, but less so than the 30-year.” (as a justification for the 20-year bond being the chosen one for the valuation model)
Just cutting stuff really.
He overlays the model calculations with the gold historical price, et voilá! (Photo 2.)
And then he fucking hits you with the stunner,
“If [inflation expectations] jumped from the current rate of 2% to 4%, the gold price would almost certainly rally to around US$3,000.”
He’s literally cracked the code. This was written in 2019!
Now, he claimed the gold spike would have preceded the actual inflation spike—and to $3000 it didn’t. But still.
He finishes by talking about gold as a large allocation of his.
Incredible. We really should be taking notes. Analogize, model, slap the number 4 on that puppy and fucking allocate.
https://www.gold.org/sites/default/files/inline-images/morris-formula.png
https://www.gold.org/sites/default/files/inline-images/gi-morris-chart.png