-
@ Felipe
2024-10-08 20:38:49🧠Quote(s) of the week:
“Civilizations die from suicide, not by murder,” according to 20th-century historian Arnold Toynbee. He claimed every great culture collapses internally due to a divergence in values between the ruling class and the common people…
"Constant inflation is a human rights issue. It prevents people from building up liquid capital reliably. It either forces them to monetize illiquid things like real estate or just keeps rug-pulling them year after year and they're never able to build any serious capital and better themselves." -Lyn Alden.
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
Before I start with the Weekly Recap I want to share a great chart by River:
'Currency devaluation, the greatest theft of time and energy in the history of mankind. This is why we Bitcoin.' -CarlBMenger
On the 23rd of September:
➡️More than a week a week ago rumors circulated that Coinbase is writing Bitcoin IOUs for BlackRock and they are suppressing the price. Now fast forward to today. BlackRock amended its spot Bitcoin ETF custody agreement with Coinbase to improve withdrawal times.
Coinbase must now process BTC withdrawals to a public address within 12 hours of receiving instruction. Source
Three days later on 26.09.2024 Coinbase is down... again. Users can't buy Bitcoin, and can't access their funds.
But here’s the kicker: Coinbase doesn’t publish its Bitcoin addresses, so you have no clue if your Bitcoin is even there—or if it’s being lent out. You’re just supposed to trust them.
➡️FirstPost covers the revelation of Bhutan's massive Bitcoin holdings: “With nearly $780 million in Bitcoin—about a third of its GDP—Bhutan now ranks as the fourth largest government holder of Bitcoin.”
"Unlike the US and China, which gained their Bitcoin through the use of seizures and legal battles, Bhutan took a more proactive approach by investing directly in Bitcoin mining." - Bitcoin News.
Remember, Germany had more than 3x the amount of Bitcoin as Bhutan but sold it all. It will go down in history as one of the worst decisions made by a government.
➡️"I call it the pet rock," Dimon said. The bank chief said in 2021 at peak crypto valuations that Bitcoin was "worthless,"
Also, BIG BREAKING JP Morgan announced plans to offer an actively managed #Bitcoin fund to its private wealth clients. - Jason A. Williams
➡️Owning just 1 Bitcoin is becoming increasingly rare.
➡️'China still has 55% of the Bitcoin mining hashrate. How's that ban going?' - Bitcoin Archive
➡️MicroStrategy outperformed every single S&P 500 company since buying Bitcoin.
MicroStrategy is up 44% in 20 days. It has gained $11B in market cap and is now worth $33 BILLION.
➡️I have said it before and will repeat it...it's all about liquidity! I have been talking about this relationship, see the comment below, in the last few years. Lyn Alden commissioned a research report, written by Sam Callahan, to quantify Bitcoin's correlation to measures of global money creation relative to other asset classes.
Result: Bitcoin moves in the directional of global M2 83% of the time; more than other assets. You will find the report below in the little gift section.
On the 26th of September:
➡️America’s oldest bank BNY Mellon gets SEC approval to offer Bitcoin custody services.
BNY Mellon Bank, the biggest custodian in the world with $49 trillion in assets will now dominate the institutional Bitcoin custody space.
➡️At +10.93% Bitcoin is on track for its best September ever.
➡️BLACKROCK: Bitcoin is NOT a risk-on asset
BlackRock's Head of Digital Assets says that just because Bitcoin is a "risky" asset does not mean it is a "risk-on" asset.
"The drivers of Bitcoin long term are very different from what’s going to drive equities and other so-called risk assets, and in some cases, they may actually even be inverted.”
On the 27th of September:
➡️ETFs are preparing for Uptober. They bought 5,790 Bitcoin yesterday. That’s 13 days of mined supply!
On the 28th of September:
➡️'If you bought Bitcoin on this day, in any year since its inception, you've beaten gold and the S&P 500.
And often massively.' -Dan McArdle
➡️$16 billion of liquidity is going to hit the market starting Monday for FTX repayments. To put things in perspective:
On the 29th of September:
➡️Despite the bearish sentiment, Bitcoin is on track for the best September returns in 12 years.
On the 30th of September:
➡️Taiwan's Financial Supervisory Commission has announced that professional investors can now access Bitcoin ETFs under specific regulations and oversight.
➡️Ohio State Senator Antani pushes the bill to allow all state and local taxes to be paid in Bitcoin.
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
On the 23rd of September:
👉🏽'The number of S&P 500 stocks outperforming the index hit 339 quarter-to-date, the highest in 22 years. This is also in line with levels seen in 2000 before the Dot-Com Bubble popped. The share has nearly tripled compared to Q2, when only ~125 stocks outperformed the S&P 500, the lowest in at least 3 decades. Interestingly, Magnificent 7 stocks are underperforming the index for the first time in almost 2 years.' -TKL
🏦Banks:
👉🏽UNREALISED LOSSES BY U.S. BANKS 7x HIGHER THAN 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
On the 23rd of September: 👉🏽Last week I mentioned how the Greens in Germany ruined the economy and the environment.
'German „green“ policy: 1. 2023 25,6% of German electricity came from coal before the decision to close nuclear 31% came from nuclear 2. Deindustrialization drives production to Asia, where some products cause 30% more CO2.'
When sensibility can’t explain the decisions, perhaps the answer is corruption or just bad philosophy.
To make it even worse: "Immigration Does Not Work, Not Even Economically" - German Govt Needs €10BN More In Welfare Payments Than Initial Forecasts
On the same day, we received the following news:
👉🏽'WORLD'S BIGGEST BANKS PLEDGE SUPPORT FOR NUCLEAR
Banks and funds totaling $14 TRILLION in assets have just signed an unprecedented statement in support of nuclear power. They'll be presenting the pledge to support the goal of tripling nuclear THIS MORNING at the Rockefeller Center in New York City to kick off NY Climate Week. A few of the names: Bank of America Barclays BNP Paribas Brookfield Citi Credit Agricole Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley Rothschild & Co The pledge comes after Microsoft signed a deal to buy $16 billion in electricity from a revived Three Mile Island nuclear plant alone over 20 years to fuel its AI ambitions.' - Mark Nelson
BNP told the Financial Times there was “no scenario” in which the world could hit carbon neutrality by 2050 without nuclear power, citing the UN’s IPCC. Barclays said it was taking part because nuclear could be a solution to the intermittency of wind and solar energy.
Now go to the picture (Germany - Greens) and if you have read my recent Weekly Recaps you just know how stupid Germany was and still is.
👉🏽Global Fertility Rates have dropped from 5.3 in 1963 to 2.3 in 2021 3.0 decline in ~58 years.
👉🏽Messaging app Telegram will provide more data to governments, including users' IP addresses and phone numbers in response to "valid legal requests," according to CEO Pavel Durov — Bloomberg
Seems like arresting and holding the CEO in the EU can result in that CEO agreeing to give away the privacy of the users. Privacy was fun while it lasted.
On the 24th of September:
👉🏽Jeroen Blokland:
'China just went all in on stimulus, sending Chinese stocks 4% higher. China's central bank: - Lowered policy interest rates and signaled more cuts are coming. - Cut rates on over USD 5 trillion in mortgages. - Eased rules for second-home purchases. - Lowered the required reserve ratio for banks, freeing up fresh liquidity. - Pledged over USD 100 billion in equity market support. - Stated policymakers were studying a stock market stabilization fund. This set of measures is astonishing in itself, but the fact that China opted to announce them all at once is a significant deviation from previous years. All this means China is (again) unlikely to stay within its budget deficit target of 3% of GDP and unleashes a massive slew of liquidity that will be felt globally.'
China's stock market has gone parabolic this week, a matter of fact the stock market in China is experiencing its strongest week in almost a decade, after the government announced a $140B stimulus and multiple rate cuts.
👉🏽'The UK's national debt currently stands at approximately £2.7 trillion, over 100% of GDP.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has projected that debt interest spending will reach £73.5 billion in 2024-25, which would be around 7.8% of public receipts. NOTE THIS IS JUST PAYING OFF INTEREST. The government's approach to managing their debt is like taking out a new credit card to pay off old credit card debt. This isn't just a problem of a single party, this is the entire apparatus of government. These policies are unsustainable. Without significant changes, the national debt is forecasted to increase dramatically over the next few decades, potentially reaching 270% of GDP by the 2070s but no government can tackle this as the pain will certainly lead them to being voted out. The only escape is to own scarce assets. The truth about our DEBT BUBBLE that no politician wants to face else they won't be elected.' - Peter McCormack
👉🏽Is the US market overvalued?
Short answer: Yes Longer answer: Absolutely
TKL: 'Since 2014, the S&P 500 has risen by 186% which is 6.4 TIMES more than the MSCI World ex-USA Index's 29% gain. To put this into perspective, during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble, this ratio reached just ~1.4x. Meanwhile, the long-term average over the last 75 years has been ~1.1x.'
On the 26th of September:
👉🏽Yellen: It will be necessary to get deficits down to keep interest costs manageable - CNBC interview.
Spoiler alert: The deficits will not just end or go down, but will continue to grow. Forever.
'Yes...and what math, logic, gold, BTC, & equities are telling those of us with the eyes to see it (but which Wall Street consensus refuses to admit to itself yet) is that what Yellen means is this: "IT WILL BE NECESSARY TO GET INTEREST COSTS DOWN TO KEEP DEFICITS MANAGEABLE." - Luke Gromen
On the 27th of September:
👉🏽'I would really like to say something positive about Europe‘s economy, but it’s simply a train wreck in slow motion.
Overregulation, bureaucracy, and lack of innovation have their price. Europe will either wake up or keep becoming poorer compared to others.'
I'm here for the once-in-a-species transition from analog money to absolute, digital scarcity. Bitcoin!
👉🏽August PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, falls to 2.2%, below expectations of 2.3%.
Core PCE inflation RISES to 2.7%, in line with expectations of 2.7%. Headline inflation is down, core inflation is up.' -TKL.
👉🏽Zimbabwe's central bank has devalued its gold-backed currency by over 40% against the US dollar, signaling trouble for its latest attempt to stabilize the volatile economy. The currency was introduced just six months ago. 'How can something supposedly backed by gold which is up about 30% against the USD this year, trade hands for 50% less USD?
"backing" fiat currency with a hard asset is meaningless because governments can and will just change the peg. You need the actual hard asset to be the thing that natively moves around in the economy. Only Bitcoin can do this in our modern global electronic economy!
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
The research suggests that Bitcoin is more closely tied to global liquidity conditions than other assets, making it a valuable macro barometer for investors:
And please watch the following podcast: Bitcoin Fixes Capatialism - Allen Farrington https://www.mrobnoxious.com/episodes/bitcoin-fixes-capitalism-allen-farrington
Allen Farrington is a writer and investor. He co-wrote Bitcoin in Venice. Great book, you can order it here.
Credit: I have used multiple sources! My savings account: Bitcoin
The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. (Please only use it till the 31st of October - after that full KYC) Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
⭐ Many thanks⭐
Felipe - Bitcoin Friday!
▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃
