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@ Anthony Accioly
2025-05-29 16:39:30
I wouldn’t fully trust my take here, due to “If AI can really replace folks, I’m not getting paid” bias and all. But IMO, outsourcing vs in-housing is a bit like building vs buying, tendencies always swings too far in one direction and are followed by a correction.
However... IMO, even though AI hype is... well... Hype. It does change things a bit (e.g. it makes it easier to tap into even cheaper Asian and South American labour, as AI handles translation quite well). Plus the geopolitical scenario is changing fast as well.
The good news is... As someone working on the platform side of things, I’m seeing managers absolutely desperate to hire, begging for budget while everything is on fire. So, if we use Platform teams as a kind of thermometer for tech in general, I’d say that some of the low cost-of-living / outsourced / contractor teams will face trouble soon, and companies will be forced to rehire locally as part of the usual pendulum swing between outsourcing and in-housing.
That said, we’ve got used to seeing the same five or six companies dominate over the past two or three decades. Some of these giants will fall. And I honestly think a lot of the next “FAANG” will likely be Chinese, Indian, etc. So my honest take is: I really don’t know what will happen to the job market in the developed West for a while.
I’m “lucky” enough to have access to both developed and developing world jib markets. Things in the UK are almost as shaky as they are in the US. Meanwhile, some of my former colleagues in Brazil are living the dream. $100k USD year in Brazil get you the equivalent of $300k in a low cost of living area in the US. A lot if folks are struggling even in the current "favourable" developing wotld market though. So it's hard to tell what's really happening.
If you ask me, I’m personally not moving back to Brazil for now. I still have a bit of hope that parts of the industry (not just Big Tech, but also telco, finance, etc, will adapt and bounce back). I won’t lie though: I’ve turned down a few opportunities in Asia and the Middle East in the past. I’m not so sure I’d reject a compelling offer nowadays.