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@ p2p fiat
2024-04-19 07:59:12about decentralisation
This consideration was initially published on Substack
In Tempore Non Suspecto
is a Latin phrase that means “at a time no one expects something to happen”.
Imagine you have an ambition to set up a decentralised protocol with an aim to transfer “value”. The value in the network will be transported by tokens which can be transferred only by network participants signing a message with an appropriate private key.
You may realise that in order to achieve decentralisation, many network participants need to have access to the value that will be transported in order for the network to enable value transfer.
This consideration argues that setting up a DECENTRALISED protocol to transfer “value” can happen only ONCE.
Once proven that it is possible to establish a decentralised protocol, humanity can never pursue a similar ambition again in ignorance or with uncertainty about the feasibility if it possible or not to establish a decentralised protocol - as that feasibility is already proven.
Therefore, anyone who will aim to set up a DECENTRALISED protocol to transfer value for a second time, will face a challenge: regardless of that mindset of the originator (altruistic or not) - the initiative will immediately face investors who will evaluate the probability the initiative will reach adoption and invest accordingly - as a result decentralisation will be extremely difficult to achieve.
Worldcoin is a blatant example of POST (after) tempore non suspecto - its founders and investors have a clear objective to keep 10% of the network value with themselves - the reader can evaluate if that is a reasonable ambition - the initiative is clearly not decentralised.
Bitcoin is broadly seen a technology innovation - it was the first technology solution to fix the double spend issue and therefore enable value transfer over the internet without trusted intermediary.
The bitcoin protocol was also built “in tempore non suspecto” - the developers of the protocol were aware that there could be some value at some point, but there was very high uncertainty at the time of development:
It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on. If enough people think the same way, that becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. Once it gets bootstrapped, there are so many applications if you could effortlessly pay a few cents to a website as easily as dropping coins in a vending machine. - Satoshi Nakamoto - The Cryptography Mailing List
Actually, it took more than two years after the genesis block and the first transaction, until 2011 for the bitcoin market cap to exceed the worldcoin USD 25m seed capital. By that time, there were already more than 5000 active btc addresses.
Therefore, one can argue bitcoin was developed in tempore non suspecto - in a timeframe when very few people expected the network creation effort to succeed - even if its inventor (group) saw a potential for success. Many therefore argue that bitcoin is one of the few, if not the only decentralised protocol.
The reader is invited to evaluate the relevance of the “in tempore non suspecto” argument - and take it into consideration when making technology or investment decisions.
Thank you for reading all the way to the end - you could have watched this Matthew Kratter video which elaborates on the exact same topic - albeit in a more entertaining way…