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@ curt finch
2025-05-18 10:51:07
Anything is possible but to me this seems very unlikely
I do see a decline in volatility since about 2022 early
Therefore I think the MV RV going up to a very high number is a low probability this time
Every time the reward for mining drops in half the importance of mining drops in half and so the four-year cycle becomes less of a thing and it is already very much not much of a thing
But you can see from the numbers that institutions are buying and individuals are selling
When the individuals stop selling, the long-term holders, who aren't holding, then it's going to shoot up to 150 pretty quickly
What you see in the graphs is that it went up to the 40s stay there for a few months went up to the '70s stayed there for 8 months went up to the hundreds essentially stayed there for so far 7 months.
Within a month or so it's probably going to go up to 150 and then stay there for 8 months