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@ Rune Østgård
2025-02-06 06:33:18
Where are interest rates going?
Will Trump push Bitcoin adoption?
Trump needs to refinance goverment debt at lower rates.
I think he's using facilitation of Bitcoin as a threat against the deep state and its supporters - the old oligharcs who control the monetary system - to oblige the Federal reserve to lower interest rates.
Lower rates increase the money supply via an uptick in bank lending.
Since Trump wants to reduce govt spending, the newly created bank money mainly gets flushed into the private sector instead of the govt.
The super rich get hold of the most of the credit.
They use the borrowed money to outcompete everyone else in the fight for scarce resources, including land, securities and bitcoin.
This way, the old oligarchs get to wet their beaks.
If they instead fight to maintain deep state dominance for the short term, they will push interest rates up and create havoc all over the world.
But for them, that's uncertain gains with unknown costs.
The oligharcs likely have low time preference (not high time preference as many Bitcoiners seem to think), and prefer certain gains at known, low costs.
Delaying Bitcoin adoption also makes it possible for them to play for time.
So, I suspect the old oligharchs prefer the following deal with Trump:
He doesn't push rapid Bitcoin adoption and in return they give him lower interest rates.
That's my best guess.