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@ Lina Engword ⚡
2025-03-10 12:26:42$OKX: $BTC $USDT.P
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/F8mO3cIx/
Situation Overview:
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a sharp sell-off on March 10, 2025. This movement, especially evident in the 15-minute timeframe, broke several key support levels and confirms a clear short-term downtrend. While the Daily timeframe has not completely broken its long-term uptrend structure, it shows significant warning signs, including a Bearish Engulfing candlestick, negative Money Flow, and weakened Trend Strength. This analysis will consider all timeframes in detail to find strategies appropriate for the current very high risk.
Technical Analysis:
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15-Minute Timeframe (15m) - Focus:
- SMC (Smart Money Concepts): Price broke down through all key support levels with strong momentum. Continuous Lower Lows (LL) are being formed. This indicates complete dominance of selling pressure.
- ICT Buyside & Sellside Liquidity:
- Buyside Liquidity (Resistance): $68,000 (former support, now key resistance), $69,000, $70,000.
- Sellside Liquidity (Support): No strong support in the near term. Possible psychological support at $60,000, and below that at $58,000, $56,000. Identifying clear support in this condition is difficult.
- Money Flow: Strongly negative (Strong Outflow). This is one of the most important confirmations of selling pressure.
- EMA (Exponential Moving Average): EMA 50 (yellow) is clearly below EMA 200 (white), and the distance between the two lines is widening. This is a strong Bearish signal.
- Trend Strength: Thick red cloud, and a clear Sell signal.
- Chart Pattern: No chart patterns indicating a Bullish reversal.
- 15m Summary: The downtrend is clear and very strong.
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4-Hour Timeframe (4H):
- SMC: Price is in a correction phase. It has broken below the EMA 50 and is testing the EMA 200.
- ICT Buyside & Sellside Liquidity:
- Buyside Liquidity (Resistance): $68,000 - $69,000.
- Sellside Liquidity (Support): EMA 200 (approximately $60,000), $58,000 (previous Demand Zone).
- Money Flow: Negative (Outflow).
- EMA: EMA 50 (yellow) crossed below EMA 200 (white) (Death Cross). This is a Bearish signal in the medium term.
- Trend Strength: Red cloud indicating a medium-term downtrend.
- Chart Pattern: No clear Bullish reversal pattern.
- 4H Summary: Confirms the medium-term correction. The trend is down.
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Daily Timeframe (Day):
- SMC: The long-term uptrend structure is not yet broken (it has not made a Lower Low below $59,000 - $60,000). However, the latest candlestick is a Bearish Engulfing, which is a significant reversal signal, and the speed and strength of the drop indicate increasing weakness.
- ICT Buyside & Sellside Liquidity:
- Buyside Liquidity (Resistance): $72,000, $75,000 (All-Time High).
- Sellside Liquidity (Support): $60,000 (key psychological support, previous Low), $58,000, and $50,000 - $52,000 (EMA 200 and Demand Zone).
- Money Flow: Starting to turn negative (Outflow). This is a significant change and a serious warning sign.
- EMA: EMA 50 (yellow) is still above EMA 200 (white), but the distance between the lines is narrowing.
- Trend Strength: The green cloud is starting to thin, and there was a Neutral signal (previously), and now there is a Sell signal.
- Chart Pattern: Bearish Engulfing - a strong bearish reversal signal.
- Day Summary: The long-term trend is technically still up, but there are several significant warning signs, and there is a high risk of a trend change.
Trading Strategies:
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Day Trade (15m):
- Main Strategy: Short Selling only. Very high risk.
- Conditions: Wait for a Rebound (temporary upward bounce) to resistance levels (such as the EMA on the 15m TF, or around $68,000). Then, wait for a clear Bearish signal (e.g., Bearish Engulfing, Evening Star, or a breakout of that Rebound to the downside).
- Stop Loss: Strictly above the most recent Swing High of the Rebound.
- Take Profit: Psychological support ($60,000), or lower ($58,000, $56,000). Do not hold for long.
- Warning: Do not counter-trend (do not Buy). The market is extremely volatile.
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Swing Trade (4H):
- Main Strategy: Wait and See. There are no Buy signals.
- Conditions: Wait for the price to test key support levels (EMA 200 at around $60,000, or $58,000). Then, a clear and strong Bullish reversal signal must be seen (e.g., Bullish Engulfing, Hammer, Morning Star, with high volume) before considering a Buy.
- Stop Loss: Below the support level where you entered.
- Take Profit: Resistance levels ($68,000 - $69,000), or higher if the trend changes.
- Warning: Buying at support without a reversal signal is high risk.
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Position Trade (Day):
- Main Strategy: Wait and See. It's too early to Buy.
- Conditions: Wait for the price to test very strong support levels ($50,000 - $52,000, which is the EMA 200 and a Demand Zone). Then, a very clear Bullish reversal signal must be seen before considering a Buy. Alternatively, wait for the market structure to turn bullish again (create a Higher High).
- Stop Loss: Below the support level where you entered.
- Take Profit: Depends on the reversal signal and long-term targets.
- Warning: Buying now has a very high risk of further downside.
Important Considerations:
- Volatility: BTC's volatility is extremely high during this period. Price movements can be severe and rapid.
- News: Monitor news and events that could affect the cryptocurrency market.
- False Breakouts/Dead Cat Bounces: Beware of temporary upward bounces (Dead Cat Bounces) before further declines.
- Risk Management: Risk management is paramount. Always use Stop Losses. Do not Overtrade (trade beyond your risk tolerance).
In summary, the Daily chart confirms that the recent sharp drop in BTC is not just a minor blip. It's a significant event that has weakened the uptrend and increased the likelihood of a deeper correction. Caution is paramount.
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