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@ TBH
2025-01-19 13:42:12
I’ve never lived in LA, though I’ve visited many times. The devastation there from recent fires there is still in the headlines and anyone with a soul feels for the folks without homes, neighbors and communities. Whether they vote the same way or look the same way or worship the same god, “what can I do to help these victims?” is our first question.
The second question is, what is the most responsible way to help? Paragraph two and controversy is already here. Responsible according to who? These people are victims, just give them as much money as they need and let them figure it out according to their local knowledge and culture! The broadest possible answer to this comes from a recent Substack by Arnold Kling: California Tough Love . His position is that there are certain factors controlled locally that led to the disaster, and we shouldn’t be in a rush to replicate them. Having some strings attached to funds that reduce the likelihood of $50,000/year blue collar workers in Iowa footing the bill for the rebuild of $5,000,000 homes in Pacific Palisades AGAIN in the foreseeable future is a very reasonable position.
My position here will be more detailed than Arnold’s, and thus has a higher probability of being wrong. That has never stopped me before. The source of this hubris is a crystal ball. While not a resident of LA, I have been an honorary citizen of Maui for several decades. This attachment is longer than the attachment to the city I currently live in. In August of 2023, a similar devastating fire engulfed the town of Lahaina on the west side of Maui. ~2,200 homes were burned or damaged. The plight of those rebuilding and the process they have gone through quickly faded from national attention, but not to those of us who spend substantial amounts of time on the island. This experience 17 months before the LA fires has painted a depressing blueprint of what we can expect in LA’s recovery. A couple of highlights:
- In November of 2024, the first house was rebuilt. 15 months = 1 house. First House Rebuilt -[Maui News](https://www.mauinews.com/news/local-news/2024/11/a-moment-in-history-family-says-thanks-as-community-celebrates-first-rebuilt-home-in-lahaina/) Article highlight: Maui “expedited the permitting process for this house, so it “only” took 2 months.
- In December of 2024, federal funding for rebuilding via a block grant is finally approved by congress. Federal Block Grant For Rebuild - [Maui News](https://www.mauinews.com/news/local-news/2025/01/federal-disaster-funding-signals-a-shift-for-lahaina/) Article highlight: $1.6 billion approved for housing = ~$800,000 per house.
What do these items have in common? The biggest price so far is time. Arnold’s substack was more of a philosophical position, but I doubt even he knew that at the time of writing, Lahaina’s federal funding had just been approved. All those strings he had attached by the feds? Still very slow for a family without a home. This is half of the ‘real price gouging’ mentioned in the subtitle. Those further down the socio-economic ladder have less time to weather the process in Lahaina and the same will likely be true for the middle class residents embedded in the areas destroyed by California’s fires.
The second element of price gouging is the red tape partially embodied in Maui’s example of two months of permitting. These costs aren’t just the time, but also the professional consultants of various stripes required to navigate the process successfully and the costly modifications to homes mandated through these processes.
Here is where I posit my broad and general suggestion. There should exist a “right to rebuild”. If you can legally own a piece of property in a specific condition, you should have the right to rebuild that exact same property if it is destroyed by means out of your control. If you don’t have a “right to rebuild”, you really don’t own that property - you are just renting it for an indefinite period from whoever can prohibit rebuilding it.
Rebuilding is a special case in both the individual and the community level. See the map of Lahaina below. We know where all the plumbing and power lines were. We know where the streets and drainage were. The right to rebuild translates nicely to the community level. Rebuild everything back where it was. Take a month or two to clear out the debris, from an area and begin to rebuild. Rinse and repeat until done.
Taxpayers in Texas shouldn’t be paying for bloated permitting processes in Lahaina or LA. They shouldn’t be paying for eco-upgrades unless very specific, critical failures that caused the current disaster are clearly identified with lowest-cost available solutions. (In Lahaina - pay to bury the power lines. I drove through the area the fire started 2 weeks before it occurred. That place was a tinder box, and it will be again unless someone puts a golf course on that hill. I’m not joking about the golf course. Directly adjacent to the north of the area of Lahaina that burned is Ka’anapali, whose identical hillside is green all year round due to the presence of golf courses that pay for themselves and do not burn.)
How to address this in the context of federal funding via Arnold’s original post:
- Extremely expedited permitting process for rebuilds that get any federal funding: 5 days not 60. You can rebuild what you had, no questions asked, just file the paper work to prove it is the same lot and same size structure. If local jurisdictions drag their heels - no funding, answer to your voters who are now SOL.
- Capped amount of funding per structure that covers a functional modest structure built at the average cost of the 10 most affordable states in the country. The process of building a single family residence is not dramatically different in various areas of the country, unless dictated by excessive regulation. There may be factors for labor to consider if an area is remote like Lahaina or the hills of North Carolina affected by Helene. But if it costs 2x to build a house in your county than in the 10 most affordable states - you are doing it wrong. There is some regulatory price gouging going on. Figure it out. [The 10 Most Affordable States to Build a Home](https://chatgpt.com/share/678bc709-6694-8007-9068-f6fbeec8f53b) - According to this research you can build a 2,100 square foot home for an average of less than $300,000 in the 10 most affordable states.
- This funding will also be contingent on these rebuilt houses being completed within 110% of the time it takes to build 2,100 square foot home in the same 10 markets - measured from the day funds begin to be distributed by the federal government.
- Federal funding will begin to be distributed from a risk pool within 6 months of the disaster, with minimal review to just ensure the disaster qualifies and the receiving state/city will abide by its parameters.
The funding is distributed at intervals governed by compliance with the program. Permits are being issued timely, and the amounts distributed are aligned with the cost of building in our most affordable markets.
If you want to build something new and different than before - it might take longer. If you want more than 2,100 square feet of house - I hope you had insurance to cover the difference. A new 2,100 square foot house puts you in the top 10% of humans on earth in terms of shelter. Being a good neighbor does not require rebuilding your infinity pool.
The right to rebuild will get people in homes quicker, remove government obstacles, and stop funding waste. Every citizen will know the rules - money is there to get me a basic structure quickly or fund the beginning of something larger. Any obstacles to that time and money are coming from politicians/regulations I can vote on locally. Comments will surely pour in explaining how it isn’t that simple. These comments will be reviewed diligently 2 years from now when Pacific Palisades is still a wasteland after $20 billion in federal aid has been spent.
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Source: Maui Now