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@ Jacopo Graziuso
2025-04-30 11:32:25
(1/2) Let's talk about the first 100 days of the Trump presidency.
📉 An analysis of the first 100 days of President Donald J. Trump's second term in office reveals a significantly negative picture for the U.S. stock market. Between January 20 and April 25, the S&P 500 Index fell 7.9%, making this period the second-worst in modern presidential history in terms of stock market performance. Only in 1973, during Richard Nixon's term, was the loss greater (-9.9%). This historical context is particularly relevant because it is associated with anti-inflationary policies that anticipated the 1973-1975 recession.
🇺🇸 From a historical perspective, average data from 1944 to 2020 show that the S&P 500 tends to rise by 2.1% during the first 100 days of a new presidency. The largest negative outliers, aside from the Trump case, are George W. Bush in 2001 (-6.9%), Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1953 (-5.8%) and Harry S. Truman in 1949 (-4.9%). At the other end of the spectrum are John F. Kennedy (+8.9% in 1961), Joe Biden (+8.5% in 2021) and Barack Obama (+8.4% in 2009), periods in which expectations of an economic recovery were broadly welcomed by the markets.
❌️ The negative performance of the markets under the second Trump presidency is even more significant when compared to the period between his re-election and Inauguration Day, during which the S&P 500 Index rose 3.7%. This period was interpreted by investors as confirmation of the so-called Trump trade, i.e. the expectation that an administration favorable to deregulation, tax cuts and support for the technology sector could provide a boost to the economy and financial markets.
📶 Stay tuned.
#Trump #economy #market #analysis #USPolitics2025 #SP500b #presidential #impact
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