-
@ Martien
2025-04-26 21:10:10
Asked the same to ChatGPT 3o:
Hey Martien—here’s a (necessarily) arm-chair probability run, anchored to what Musk has actually said and done in public:
Assertion Likely?* Why I land there (evidence & reasoning)
1. “Natural” free-market trend is deflation ≈ 85 % Musk has warned the Fed that a “major rate hike risks deflation,” and he’s repeatedly blamed rising prices on government money-printing rather than supply-and-demand.  
2. Tech progress should drive prices down for everyone ≈ 80 % His whole playbook is about steep learning-curve cost drops (“the best part is no part, the best cost is no cost”) and constant price-cuts on Teslas/Starlink as volumes rise. He speaks of Moore-like curves in rockets, batteries and AI chips, implying consumer deflation as the end-state. 
3. Blocking that deflation equals wealth transfer via central control (“theft”) ≈ 60 % Musk stops short of calling it outright “theft,” yet he does frame inflation as the result of “excess government spending” and a stealth tax on ordinary people—which is philosophically the same point.  
4. His muted stance on Bitcoin is because BTC breaks a system he profits from ≈ 35 % He has gone quiet on Bitcoin since Tesla’s 2021 energy U-turn, while loudly boosting Dogecoin and courting U-S-government contracts and subsidies. But other motives—energy optics, SEC headaches, meme-marketing—are at least as plausible. He occasionally resurfaces with mild BTC praise, which weakens the “benefits-from-the-system” theory.  
*Rough subjective odds, not statistical measurements.
Take-aways in plain English
• Musk almost certainly understands macro-deflation and tech-driven price collapse; it’s part of his public narrative.
• He pretty clearly sees inflation as a government-caused transfer of wealth, even if he couches it in less loaded language than “theft.”
• The Bitcoin silence is murkier. It could be strategic brand-management, regulatory caution, or simple preference for his pet meme-coin rather than fear of losing “system” advantages.
So: high confidence on items 1-3 being in his head, but only a coin-flip—or less—that 4 is his real motivation for staying mostly mum on BTC.