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2024-09-07 22:07:54I submitted my five picks for the Circa Millions contest today. I think it’s $6M in total prizes. I want to put a disclaimer here: I’m putting these behind a paywall not because you should pay for these picks — never pay for anyone’s picks. If the picks were that good, whoever was making them could just print money and wouldn’t need yours. If you want to subscribe in earnest, do so because you’re interested to see who I chose and read the reasoning, not because you (erroneously) think it’s the way to get some easy winners. Or if you want to support my substack generally because you think it adds value to you. Those are fine reasons to subscribe, but doing so because you think copying my picks will make you money is dumb. Okay that out of the way, here are the picks:  **Dolphins -3.5 vs Jaguars** — I like taking the Dolphins in early September, it’s hot and humid there, difficult for opposing teams to adjust to it. It’s like Lambeau Field in December, only in reverse. Moreover, the Dolphins are a veteran offense that’s played together for years, while the Jaguars are working in two new receivers. **Falcons -3.5 vs Steelers** — Justin Fields is probably an upgrade over Russell Wilson at this point, but he’s haphazard and will have to learn the players and offense on the fly. The Falcons have a new QB too, but he’s an old pro, has better weapons and a better offensive line. **Giants +1 vs Vikings** — The Giants have three Pro-Bowl level pass rushers, finally have a playmaking receiver and upgraded their offensive line this offseason. And yet despite facing Sam Darnold at home, they’re still getting a point. **Cardinals +6.5 at Bills** — Kyler Murray is now another year removed from knee surgery, should be his usual spry self, and Marvin Harrison adds another dimension to the offense it sorely needed. The Bills will move the ball, but I think Arizona will hang with them and keep it close enough. **Browns -2 vs Cowboys** — The Browns should be able to run the ball and keep the Dallas pass rush off Deshaun Watson, while Dallas’ offensive line has slipped a bit, and the Browns defense was No. 1 against the pass last year. Dak Prescott also has big home/road splits.