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@ Real Man Sports
2024-07-25 15:11:07
I finished my first round of rankings, based solely on the RotoWire depth charts and a little feedback from readers, and decided to compare them to the NFFC’s ADP, to see where my early leans differ most from the market’s.
I’m using the ADP from July 14-25 (spanning 13 RotoWire Online Championship Drafts.)
The board version looks like this:
Here are the market’s rankings side by side with mine:
**Quarterback**
I’m pretty much in lockstep for the top-10 QBs. I’m a little higher on Kyler Murray and lower on Joe Burrow, but if Burrow looks 100 percent healthy throughout camp, I might move him up. Murray is another year removed from the ACL tear and gets Marvin Harrison, so I’ll probably have some shares at current market prices.
Apparently, I’m a lot higher than the market on Justin Herbert. I know the Chargers plan to run more, but game situation will dictate some of that, and I’m betting on the talent and a more competent coaching staff. I’m also higher on Danny Dimes — he gets Malik Nabers, a healthy WanDale Robinson, Year 2 of Jalin Hyatt and a weaker running game. The Giants could be a pass-heavy offense, and Dimes can add points with his legs too. No reason in a 1-QB league to take Geno Smith over him, for example. Same is true for Sam Darnold — if he wins the job, he’s got elite receivers, and Darnold is also somewhat mobile. Why bother taking Geno over him in a 1-QB league where you can find a replacement for free on waivers?
I’m lower on the rookies, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. Williams isn’t much of a runner, and Chicago is a terrible place for quarterbacks, the myriad weapons around him, notwithstanding. Daniels maybe I’m too low on as he’s a mobile QB and has enough weapons. I’m just bearish on the Washington offense generally.
**Running Back**
My top-20 looks a lot like the ADP. I’m lower on Rachaad White and Derrick Henry. White isn’t that good, so I’m worried about him being outplayed. Henry won’t catch many passes and is getting long in the tooth. I’m higher on David Montgomery — think the Lions will still get him his 200-1,000-10. Maybe he shouldn’t be ahead of Henry though. I also am higher on Zack Moss, Javonte Williams and Devin Singletary. There’s no reason Moss can’t more or less be what Joe Mixon was last year, Williams is another year removed from the ACL tear and Singletary is the only game in town on what should be an improved offense and playing for a coach who knows him and wanted to sign him.
I’m also lower on Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones and Zamir White. The former two were drafted in 2017 and declining, while White isn’t that good, doesn’t have a lock on the job and isn’t much of a pass catcher.
**Wide Receiver**
My top-eight are roughly identical to the ADP, but apparently I’m a massive outlier on Stefon Diggs who I have at No. 9, but the market has at 24! The negatives on Diggs are his age — he’s 30 now, and he fell off precipitously in the second half last year. Even so, he caught 107 passes, and the Texans traded for him with a now-restructured contract that pays him $22.5M this year, i.e., he’s getting paid like a No. 1 and is incentivized to earn a new contract next year. There’s more competition for targets in Houston, but CJ Stroud might lead the league in passing attempts too.
Accordingly, I’m lower on Nico Collins and Tank Dell who I think will lose target share to Diggs. Otherwise, it’s not too disparate. I’m lower on Michael Pittman whose role is secure, but I’m unclear on how reliable the Indy passing game will be and also George Pickens for similar reasons.
**Tight End**
These are pretty close if you sort by tiers. I’m higher on Dalton Kincaid who I expect to be Josh Allen’s top target and a little lower on Travis Kelce due to age-related risk. But this is mostly hair splitting. I like Jonnu Smith’s upside on the Dolphins, and it looks like I omitted Cade Otton by mistake.