-
@ Bitcoin Friday
2024-08-07 13:14:26🧠Quote(s) of the week:
'Bitcoin will remain correlated with risk assets until it isn’t. And then it never will be correlated again.' - James Lavish
'This month we will be reminded, once again, that we do not have "free markets," as many incorrectly presume.
Rather, our monetary and financial markets are resoundingly centrally controlled. Keep your eyes peeled and your ears open for announcements of major policy shifts from central bankers.
Liquidity and lower rates incoming.' -Dr. Jeff Ross
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
Last couple of days I enjoyed the Olympic Games in Paris so this Weekly Recap will be a bit more condensed.
What can you expect:
In a desperate bid to save their falling currency, the Japanese have begun hiking rates. This caught the markets off guard and we had a severe dip across all assets/markets. More on that in the segment Macro & Geopolitics.
So what about Bitcoin?
'There are ~0.002 BTC per person on earth.
When Bitcoin dips, I like to do little smash buys in 0.002 BTC increments. It’s kinda fun knowing you’re buying a person’s entire life’s worth of labor for about $150.' -Bit Paine
Brutal truths and thoughts, kinda savage. But from my own perspective, maybe one day I will spend that 0.002BTC in something that was produced by someone who earned it in the future.
On the 30th of July:
➡️Russian lawmakers pass a bill allowing businesses to use Bitcoin in international trade — Reuters
On the 31st of July:
➡️El Salvador proposes using Bitcoin to trade with Russia, aiming to strengthen economic ties and its global influence. "Unlike El Salvador, in Russia BTC isn’t widely accepted, so we are exploring alternative ways to boost trade," says Ambassador Alexander Ilyukhin
➡️'Tether’s Q2 2024 attestation reveals they hold $4.7 billion in Bitcoin. They also announced a new all-time high in direct and indirect U.S. Treasury holdings at $97.6 billion, surpassing Germany, the UAE, and Australia.' - Bitcoin News
➡️'Bitcoin mining difficulty is ripping. Mining difficulty has adjusted upwards by 10.5% to a new all-time high at 90.7T.' - Simply Bitcoin
On the 1st of August:
➡️'Digital Chamber of Commerce hand delivers a letter to every US Senator in support of Senator Lummis’ BITCOIN Act of 2024.' -Bitcoin News
On the 2nd of August:
➡️Former Congressman and current Senate candidate Justin Amash posts laser eyes photo after meeting with Bitcoiners. Now it's cute, don't get me wrong. He is running as a Republican so his party supports Bitcoin and he wants votes.
On the 4th of August:
➡️While you are scared, whales bought the highest Bitcoin ever since Oct 2014.
➡️ The Bitcoin hashrate moving average rebounds sharply, reaching a new all-time high of 645 Eh/s.
On the 5th of August:
➡️'Please note that Bitcoin's decline since halving is now similar to that of the 2015-2017 Halving Bull market cycle' -Peter Brandt
➡️Morgan Stanley becomes the first bank to let wealth advisors pitch Bitcoin ETFs to clients - CNBC “Morgan Stanley's advisors manage $5.7 trillion in client assets, the biggest of the wirehouses,” Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas
➡️Europe's fourth largest hedge fund, Capula Management, discloses $500 million spot Bitcoin ETF holdings.
➡️Despite the crash, BlackRock and Fidelity are not selling their Bitcoin, Arkham data shows.
➡️'Bitcoin is proving that it is the ultimate safe-haven asset. Even in a crisis, the network stays up, the exchanges trade 24/7, and the market finds a healthy clearing price - well above the 2022 low. Very impressive!' -Pierre Rochard
➡️ Public Company Semler Scientific purchases an additional 101 Bitcoin for $6 million. Since announcing the adoption of a bitcoin treasury strategy on May 28, 2024, the Company has purchased 929 bitcoins for a total of $63.0 million.
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
👉🏽Warren Buffett now holds $277 Billion in cash and has been selling stocks like never before, including Apple.
He's getting ready for a crash...or he deployed the cash during the recent crash. I tend to believe the last is more likely.
'Usually when people talk about Buffett’s record cash hoard each quarter, it’s just the effect of ongoing money supply growth as everything gets bigger. Noise. This one, however, was actually a serious jump in cash. Signal.'-Lyn Alden
On the 5ht of August:
👉🏽Robinhood halts 24-hour trading.
24-hourAt least SIX trading platforms are down:
• Citi
• Fidelity
• E-Trade
• Vanguard
• TD Ameritrade
• Charles Schwab
👉🏽Over $1.93 trillion wiped out from the US stock market so far today.
🏦Banks:
👉🏽No news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
So what happened last week? The Bank of Japan tried to give its currency some relief, raised rates to 0.25%, and by doing so caused a global deleveraging event.
All roads lead to currency debasement. There is no other way out for them.
•The volatility index (Vix) is up by 180% in 2 weeks.
•US equities are getting slaughter
•Asian stocks are experiencing Black Monday 2.0
Most accurate and crisp explanation of the current situation. Here is a detailed thread on what happened last week and if anyone wants to understand the market moves today/lately.:
https://x.com/peruvian_bull/status/1820199767336702052
The Bank of Japan sneezes and the world economy shakes - nice little financial system we have. Great risk management.
On the 29th of July:
👉🏽Janet Yellen Seeks (Just) $78 Trillion To Fight Climate Change.
Now ask yourself: Why is the Treasury Secretary asking for funding for something so far outside of her purview?
Maybe to bail out collapsing banks? Collapsing system? Anyway, hello liquidity!
Preston Pysh: 'We’ve been telling you the upcoming fiat liquidity expansion (M2) would make the COVID numbers blush. It’s just math first and narrative second.'
'The faster this rises, the faster the US Treasury loses its place as the global reserve asset. It really is as simple as that.' - James Lavish
'Nothing matters until everything does, just see what happened during the Weimar Hyperinflation and how fast. 8 years ago the U.S. debt was $20T, now we just hit $35T and are projected to smash $56.8T by 2034. Nothing stops this train. Bitcoin is your insurance.' -CarlBMenger
So the USA's national debt is now at ~$35,000,000,000,000
What are the real-world implications of that? What does it mean for the future? Well, average people will see their life savings obliterated and most likely thrown into crushing poverty. 'When hyperinflation destroyed the currency in Germany in the waning days of the Weimar Republic. The Rich industrialists, however, made out great because they saw all their giant business debts get inflated away.'
So how bad is the situation? 'When you add the $215 trillion of unfunded liabilities that the US owes, it’s like someone who has a $100k salary and $5 million of debt.' -James Lavish
Yikes!
Ps.: On the 1st of August: $35,104,770,649,301.03 ERGO $100 billion in less than a week. Is anyone looking at this in the government?
On the 31st of July:
👉🏽TREASURY INCREASES LIQUIDITY BUYBACK TOTAL TO 30B FROM $15B. But no! QE 2.0 is not coming...
👉🏽'Euro Zone inflation rises to 2.6%, above expectations of 2.5%. Core inflation in Europe hit 2.9%, above expectations of 2.8%. Inflation is back on the rise in Europe.' -TKL The ECB has no green light to cut in September yet, but markets still price a 96% probability for another 25bps ECB cut.
👉🏽'July CPI inflation in Germany unexpectedly rises to 2.6%, above expectations of 2.5%.
Just hours ago, Germany reported a surprise -0.1% drop in Q2 2024 GDP. Germany now has rising inflation with falling GDP.
The era of stagflation has begun.'
👉🏽Just one item, but price increases since 2020 are way above the official inflation rate. It’s not much different with groceries, travel, etc. Who cares about the official inflation rate?
👉🏽Bank of Japan raises policy rate to 0.25%. And so the hiking cycle ends and exposing the massive Yen Carry Trade Godzilla. Let the game begin.
On the 1st of August: 👉🏽Bank of England cuts rates by 0.25% to 5%. This is the first rate cut since 2020.
On the 2nd of August: 👉🏽Emergency press conference by Jerome Powell due to market meltdown. '$3 TRILLION wiped off stocks in minutes because of global recession fears. Bitcoin's Total Market Cap is merely $1.25 Trillion.
A rounding error. There is $900T of wealth and the world is under-allocated to Bitcoin.' -TKL Gradually, and then suddenly...
👉🏽Japan's Nikkei stock index is DOWN 16% in 17 days.
👉🏽'The 10-year Note Yield crashes over 15 basis points after a much weaker-than-expected July jobs report. The 10-year note yield yield is now down 55 BASIS POINTS in ONE WEEK. For the first time since March 2020, bond markets are pricing in a potential recession.' -TKL
On the 5th of August:
👉🏽'The volatility index, VIX, is now up 122% today and the market hasn't even opened yet.
Since July 1st, the VIX is now up 328% to its highest level since 2020. We are seeing pandemic levels of volatility. We are seeing pandemic-era levels of volatility literally days after the Fed called for a soft landing. The problem is that inflation remains elevated even as interest rate cuts are needed.'
'The volatility index, VIX, is now trading at its 5th highest level on record. Since July 1st, the VIX is now up over 330% and trading at March 2020 levels. The last time volatility was this high, the global economy was heading to a complete shutdown.'-TKL
According to the VIX, the worst market events of our lives were the 2008 financial crisis, COVID, and the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by a quarter percentage point.
👉🏽Japan's stock market, the Nikkei 225, is currently set to post its largest 2-day drop in history.
This is an even larger drop than the Black Monday crash of 1987, per Zerohedge. Now, South Korea has halted ALL sell orders as markets crash.
'Looks like the Japanese Central Bank Money Manipulation Chickens have come home to roost.' -James Lavish
More information on this topic:click here
'The $20 Trillion Carry Trade Has Finally Blown Up'
The Bank of Japan said it, the Ministry of Finance and the Financial Services Agency will meet from 3 pm in Tokyo to discuss international markets. - Reuters
👉🏽'Bond markets are now pricing in a 60% chance of an emergency interest rate cut within 1 week.
This would mark the first emergency interest rate cut since March 2020 during the pandemic.
Bond markets are saying that something broke.' -TKL
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:
Speaker: Alex Gladstein - Human Rights Foundation 'The media, governments, and the establishment continue to say Bitcoin is useless Unfortunately for them, I packed my Nashville keynote with dozens of specific Bitcoin use cases from across the world in the areas of commerce, freedom, and energy No price talk, all utility ✌️'
Discover the hidden power of Bitcoin beyond its role as a savings technology. This eye-opening talk explores how Bitcoin is transforming commerce, promoting freedom, and revolutionizing our approach to energy consumption worldwide. From empowering the unbanked to saving wasted energy, learn about the real-world impact of this misunderstood technology.
Hear firsthand accounts of how Bitcoin is changing lives in places like Malawi, Venezuela, and even the United States. Uncover why Bitcoin might be the ultimate ESG investment and how it's reshaping our understanding of financial inclusion and sustainable energy solutions. Don't miss this comprehensive look at Bitcoin's global influence.
Bitcoin: Global Utility - click here
Credit: I have used multiple sources! My savings account: Bitcoin The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. (Please only use it till the 31st of October - after that full KYC) Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.
See you next week!
Felipe - Bitcoin Friday
