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Erdogan’s Turkey: The Rise, Reign, and Decline of a Political Strongman

As Turkey’s political crisis intensifies with Erdogan’s imprisonment of Imamoglu—a leading opposition figure and likely frontrunner in the 2028 presidential elections—it is crucial to analyze the historical events and geopolitical factors that enabled Erdogan’s rise, secured the consolidation of his rule, and allowed him to maintain his grip on power for decades. To understand the foundations of Erdogan’s enduring political legacy, we must examine the historical events that shaped his ideology and the global power struggles of the time. Equally important are the international actors who facilitated his rise and prolonged his rule. Key factors include the link between Erdogan’s rise and the Iraq War, the interplay between Turkey’s military coups and the Ukraine crisis, the events that led to the erosion of Western support for Erdogan, the role of the U.S. and NATO in the 2016 coup attempt against his rule, and the shifting geopolitical landscape that continues to define Turkey’s political future.

The Roots of Islamism: The CIA, the 1980 Coup, and the Suppression of Turkish Liberalism

Erdogan’s rise is deeply intertwined with the growth of Turkey’s Islamic movement, which gained traction in the 1970s amid Cold War geopolitics. During this period, the U.S., under the guidance of Zbigniew Brzezinski, National Security Advisor to President Jimmy Carter, devised the “Green Belt” strategy. This plan aimed to cultivate a radicalized Islamic generation across the Muslim world to counter the spread of communist ideology. The U.S. intervention in Afghanistan, which radicalized certain factions and triggered the Soviet invasion, was a critical component of this strategy. Brzezinski himself proudly acknowledged this in various interviews. Turkey, a NATO ally bordering the Soviet Union, became a key theater for implementing this policy.

The military coup of September 12, 1980, marked a pivotal moment in Turkish history. Led by General Kenan Evren, the Turkish armed forces seized power under the pretext of restoring order amid escalating violence between leftist and rightist factions that had claimed thousands of lives. However, the junta’s crackdown disproportionately targeted the Turkish left—a movement distinct from Soviet-style communism, composed of liberal, educated intellectuals such as writers, artists, journalists, and thinkers. These individuals, who championed Turkish sovereignty, intellectual freedom, and democratic ideals, were perceived as a direct threat to the military’s Islamization agenda, backed by the CIA. Tens of thousands were imprisoned, tortured, or executed, while left-wing organizations were banned outright.

At the same time, the junta actively fostered Islamist groups, establishing religious schools known as Imam Hatip institutions under the guise of combating Marxism and communism. In reality, their true objective was to eliminate anyone who sought Turkish sovereignty, embraced patriotism, or valued critical thinking. Writers, artists, journalists, and intellectuals—those who dared to think independently and question authority—were viewed as existential threats to the Islamization model the military and its CIA allies sought to impose. By silencing these voices, the junta aimed to eradicate opposition to their vision of a Turkey subservient to religious dogma and foreign interests, ensuring a populace stripped of sovereign thought and resistant to enlightenment.

This paradox—a secular military suppressing liberal intellectuals while nurturing Islamist groups—laid the foundation for Erdogan’s rise and the eventual Islamization of Turkish society.

The Chaos of the 1990s: Economic Crisis and the Rise of Erdogan

The 1990s were a chaotic decade for Turkey, marked by economic instability, a Kurdish insurgency, and a revolving door of coalition governments. The 1994 financial crisis saw inflation soar, while terrorist attacks by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and political assassinations fueled national disarray. Successive governments, often beholden to globalist agendas dictated by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, failed to deliver stability. This period mirrored today’s European political crises, where ideological convergence has left voters disillusioned.

Into this void stepped Erdogan, a charismatic former soccer player turned politician from Istanbul’s working-class Kasimpasa district, whose blend of populist appeal and religious rhetoric resonated with a disillusioned populace. His rise was no accident. In 1994, he won the mayoralty of Istanbul as a member of the Islamist Welfare Party (Refah Partisi), showcasing a blend of populist charisma and religious appeal. However, his early political career faced a setback in 1997 when the military, acting as guardians of Turkey’s secular Kemalist legacy, forced the resignation of Welfare Party Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan in what was dubbed a “postmodern coup.” Erdogan’s imprisonment in 1998 for reciting a divisive poem only solidified his image as a martyr among his devout supporters.

The 2001 Crisis: Neocons, Economic Sabotage, and Erdogan’s Ascendancy

Erdogan’s true ascent began amid Turkey’s devastating 2001 financial crisis, which saw the economy contract by 5.7%, unemployment spike, and the Turkish lira collapse. The crisis, worsened by IMF-mandated austerity measures, discredited the ruling coalition under Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit. A staunch nationalist, Ecevit had spearheaded Turkey’s 1974 intervention in Cyprus and forced Syria to expel PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan in 1999. His refusal to align Turkey with the impending U.S.-led Iraq War in 2003 made him a liability for U.S. neoconservatives, who were already preparing for the conflict.

Far from a mere economic downturn, the 2001 crisis was a deliberate strategy orchestrated by the global Western financial cartel to destabilize Ecevit’s nationalist government. This administration, fiercely protective of Turkish sovereignty, had unequivocally opposed Turkey’s involvement in the Iraq War. To eliminate this obstacle, the financial cartel—comprising international financial institutions and Western-backed actors—engineered the crisis by exploiting Turkey’s reliance on hot money and Western financial support. The resulting economic collapse eroded public trust in the government and existing political parties, creating a power vacuum that paved the way for Erdogan. Handpicked by the globalist cabal as their new proxy, Erdogan was positioned to advance their political agenda in Turkey. The neocons viewed him as a pliable ally: a moderate Islamist who could pacify Turkey’s religious conservatives while advancing Western interests. Despite resistance within his own party, Erdogan advocated for Turkish involvement in the Iraq War, though the Turkish Parliament, with the help of dissidents in his party, ultimately rejected U.S. troop deployments in 2003. Nevertheless, Erdogan remained loyal to his neocon backers and globalist patrons, privatizing state assets at rock-bottom prices—akin to Yeltsin’s controversial reforms in 1990s Russia—and deepening Turkey’s economic dependence on the EU and the U.S.

In addition to tying Turkey’s economy to Western interests, Erdogan targeted the Turkish military in 2007 through the Ergenekon and Sledgehammer trials. Widely criticized as show trials orchestrated with the help of the Gulen movement—a shadowy Islamic network led by Fethullah Gulen—these cases imprisoned or sidelined hundreds of officers, including navy admirals opposed to NATO’s Black Sea ambitions. These officers had long argued that NATO’s mission ended with the fall of the Soviet Union and advocated for closer ties with Russia and China. They also opposed plans to integrate Georgia and Ukraine into NATO, fearing it would destabilize the region and turn the Black Sea into a battleground between the West and Russia. By weakening the navy and sidelining its dissenting admirals, Erdogan brought Turkey back in line with NATO’s strategic objectives, enabling the neocons to advance their plans for NATO expansion into the Black Sea region—a move that set the stage for the 2008 Russo-Georgian War and the 2014 Ukrainian crisis.. Without this internal coup against the Turkish military, these events might have unfolded differently—or not at all.

For his services to the globalist agenda, Erdogan was portrayed in Western media as a democratizing hero, and Turkey’s economy was praised for its growth and strength. However, the reality was starkly different. To understand the globalist propaganda surrounding Erdogan, consider Barack Obama’s first foreign visit as U.S. president: a trip to Turkey in 2009. In a speech to the Turkish Parliament, Obama praised Erdogan’s “democratic reforms” and the strength of Turkey’s economy—which was growing steadily only due to cheap credit provided by international financial institutions serving the same globalist interests Erdogan represented. Meanwhile, journalists and dissidents filled Turkish prisons.

The 2016 Coup Attempt: Erdogan’s Break with the West

Erdogan’s honeymoon with the West soured in the 2010s. His support for Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood and his interventionist stance in Syria clashed with U.S. priorities, especially after the Arab Spring upended regional alliances. Sensing Erdogan’s growing autonomy, the neocons turned to Fethullah Gulen, a cleric living in Pennsylvania since 1999 with close ties to the CIA and the Clinton Foundation. Gulen’s Hizmet movement, once an ally in Erdogan’s rise, had infiltrated Turkey’s police, judiciary, and military, creating a “parallel state.”

The July 15, 2016, coup attempt—marked by rogue military units bombing parliament and nearly capturing Erdogan—was orchestrated by factions of the Gulen movement within the army, with the involvement of the CIA and NATO, using Incirlik Air Base as one of the primary command centers to coordinate the operation (one of NATO’s largest military bases in the region). The timing suggests that the neocons, anticipating Hillary Clinton’s presidency, planned to install Gulen as their new puppet in Turkey. As a radical Sunni leader hostile to Iran, Gulen could have aligned Turkey with a broader anti-Iranian axis, potentially dragging the country into a regional war against Iran—much like Saddam Hussein did three decades earlier.

The coup’s failure, quashed by loyalists and public resistance, marked a turning point, leading Erdogan to purge over 100,000 civil servants and consolidate his power through a 2017 referendum and pivoting toward Russia and China—not out of conviction, but as leverage against Western abandonment.

Turkey’s Geopolitical Balancing Act: Ukraine, NATO, and the Black Sea

Erdogan’s post-2016 flirtations with Moscow—evidenced by the purchase of Russian S-400 systems and energy deals—reflect more than a pragmatic balancing act. They reflect a desperate attempt to regain Western attention, akin to dating someone new to make an ex jealous, aimed at convincing the West not to write him off.

The Ukrainian crisis, escalating with Russia’s 2022 invasion, has pushed Turkey into a delicate role. As a NATO member controlling the Bosphorus, Erdogan has mediated grain deals and prisoner swaps, leveraging Turkey’s strategic position. Yet his reluctance to fully back NATO’s hardline stance has further alienated him from the West, making him a target for a potential regime change operation as the West has grown desperate to win its proxy war against Russia. As a result, international media and globalist factions have intensified efforts to undermine his regime, seeking to remove him from power.

Turkey at a Crossroads: Imamoglu, Erdogan’s Decline, and the Future

Erdogan has fulfilled his mission: he has made Turkey’s economy dependent on the West, eliminated patriotic voices in the military, dismantled the parliamentary system, wrecked the education system, and buried the secular Turkish republic. His legacy is a deeply polarized Turkey: economically dependent on the West, militarily weakened, and institutionally hollowed out.

Corruption scandals, a collapsing lira, and authoritarian excesses have fueled widespread public discontent. Yet, rather than addressing the root causes of this anger—economic hardship, growing authoritarianism, and systemic corruption—Erdogan has grown increasingly paranoid, attributing every challenge to Western conspiracies and interventions. This refusal to confront reality has only deepened the divide between him and the Turkish people, fueling widespread disillusionment and anger.

Imamoglu’s rise—winning Istanbul in 2019 and 2023 despite blatant election irregularities, systematic government interference, censorship, and the full force of Erdogan’s authoritarian machinery—stands as a testament to his resilience and the enduring hope of Turkey’s opposition. Facing a system rigged to ensure his defeat, Imamoglu triumphed against overwhelming odds. Erdogan’s regime spared no effort, leveraging state media, the judiciary, and security forces to manipulate the results, yet it could not prevent Imamoglu’s victories in Istanbul, which shattered the illusion of invincibility surrounding Erdogan’s rule. His recent imprisonment on fabricated charges ahead of the 2028 elections underscores Erdogan’s desperation to suppress this threat, further alienating a populace yearning for change.

Turkey now stands at a crossroads. The powers that once propelled Erdogan to prominence—U.S. neoconservatives and the Islamist legacy of the 1980 coup—have lost control of their creation. His fall from Western favor, tied to the 2016 coup attempt and his regional overreach, has left him isolated, oscillating between East and West while clinging to power as domestic anger reaches a boiling point. Whether Imamoglu or another leader emerges, Turkey’s post-Erdogan era will face the monumental task of rebuilding its secular republic and defining its role in an increasingly complex global landscape.

Turkey’s struggle is not just its own—it is an example of the suffering endured for decades under Western colonialism and a parasitic financial order. This system, designed to enrich a handful of elites in the West, thrives by exploiting the Global South, perpetuating poverty, and engineering chaos to maintain control. Turkey’s fight for self-determination stands as a beacon for all nations seeking to break free from the chains of neocolonialism and reclaim their rightful place in a just and equitable global order. The future must be built on the sovereignty of nations, free from the selfish designs of a Western oligarchy.