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@ isol
2025-02-15 09:10:38
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I saw a discussion about the calculation of the probability of an asteroid impact, and because the accuracy of the prediction increases over time as more observations are made, the typical graph shows an increasing likelihood of impact until the accuracy is enough to determine the asteroid will miss, when the probability (obviously) drops to zero.
So I'm sort of comforted each time I hear that the impact likelihood has edged up a bit, because that means there's more orbit info, and the calculation is a bit more accurate, and hopefully a bit closer to determining that it will definitely be a near miss.