@ Felipe

🧠Quote(s) of the week:

"At some point, people will realize that they have more to fear by not embracing this technology than by embracing it." - Michael Saylor

'The tail (Bitcoin) seems to be wagging the dog (ECB)... until the world realizes Bitcoin is the dog and central banks the tail.' -Tuur Demeester

🧡Bitcoin news🧡

Of course, I will start this week's Weekly Recap with a short recap on the new ECB paper: 'The distributional consequences of Bitcoin.' by Jürgen Schaaf & Ulrich Bindseid aka the ECB BTC-gaslighters.

Why do I say gaslighters? Those two gentlemen already wrote a paper in 2022 "Bitcoin is basically dead". Just for your information, Bitcoin is worth 64% more today than when Jürgen & Uli made that statement. Ergo, ECB economists during the bear market: it's a worthless scam; ECB economists during the bull market: it's not fair.

Anyway, the new paper is a true declaration of war: the ECB claims that early Bitcoin adopters steal economic value from latecomers. “If the price of Bitcoin rises for good, the existence of Bitcoin impoverishes both non-holders and latecomers"

I quote Tuur Demeester: 'I strongly believe authorities will use this luddite argument to enact harsh taxes or bans' A bit below in the Bitcoin segment you will already see some first steps from governments to imply some harsh taxes on their (Bitcoin) citizens. Now back to the paper and my view on it. Let me start with the following: It’s not our fault (ECB, no coiners) you didn’t take the time to study Bitcoin, the signs were everywhere.

How freaking cool is it and I know we are winning when the ECB is quoting people like Marty Bent, and Molly White, quoting from Bitcoin Magazine, excerpting Trump and RFK from Nashville, and matching price movements with electoral polls in its research papers. Madness!

This is one of the first times in history that those who weren’t supposed to get wealthy did. Bitcoin is leveling the playfield for everyone. Lovely to see that the ECB, and in time the EU, will actively attack the only thing that can save this continent in decline.

Just to hit you with some logic. We, the public need a PhD - some ECB economist, to tell us that investing early in stocks, a house, art, or whatever makes it any different than investing early in Bitcoin. All they say is whoever enters an asset class earlier accrues more value than those who enter later, right? Again, like in every other asset class. For example, and I quote Ben Kaufmann: “If the price of Apple /Nvidia (you name it) stock rises for good, the existence of Apple/Nvidia (you name it) impoverishes both non-holders and latecomers.” See how stupid that sounds? Can someone find any logic in this?

Bitcoin protects you from the fiat clowns at the ECB who inflate the currency into oblivion and then blame Bitcoin for people being poor. “protect yourself from currency debasement with Bitcoin.”

I truly hope the ECB is at its final stage of denial and is only one 'logical' leap away from realizing that they need Bitcoin on their balance sheet. To finish this bit, the ECB is doing a great job. Cumulative change has been just -40,57 % in about 20 years.

The real thieves are the people who can create fiat money out of thin air and dilute entire populations behind their backs. Something the ECB and big banks perform as a primary function. Bitcoin simply allows anyone to protect themselves from fiat debasement and reliably improve their standard of living.

Sam Callahan: 'Holders of worse money will lose out to holders of better money. Welcome to Reverse Thiers’ Law. It’s not Bitcoin’s fault that these institutions destroyed their currencies. Fortunately, anyone can opt into BTC. The choice has been yours since 2009. Choose your money wisely.'

On the 14th of October:

➡️Publicly-listed German company Samara Asset Group to buy Bitcoin using a $33M bond.

➡️MicroStrategy stock has done over $3.2 billion in trading volume so far today.

➡️$1.45 trillion Deutsche Bank partnered with Keyrock for Crypto and FX services. Great thing that these huge, although DB is insolvent, legacy banks will dump billions into the space, and allow people with complex financial situations to own and utilize Bitcoin.

On the 15th of October:

➡️Fed’s Kashkari: Bitcoin remains worthless after twelve years. Almost the 6th largest monetary asset in the world...Blackrock and Fidelity beg to differ. Blackrock now holds 1.87% of the mined supply for its clients. Fidelity holds 0.93%. At a 1.35 trillion market cap 1.2 billion wallet addresses would say otherwise.

➡️Metaplanet purchases an additional 106.97 $BTC. They have purchased an additional 106.976 Bitcoin for ¥1 billion at an average price of ¥9,347,891 per Bitcoin. As of October 15, Metaplanet holds ~855.478 Bitcoin acquired for ¥7.965 billion at an average price of ¥9,310,061 per Bitcoin.

➡️Adam Back's company Blockstream raises $210 MILLION to buy more Bitcoin for its treasury and fund its other initiatives.

On the 16th of October:

➡️93% of the Bitcoin supply is in profit. We can HODL longer than the market can remain irrational.

➡️You know the day will come. Governments will use Bitcoin to get more taxes or do 'capital control' / 'exit control' / 'control of money'.

Italy's Deputy Finance Minister Maurizio Leo announced their plan to increase capital gains on Bitcoin from 26% to 42% because "the phenomenon is spreading." Immoral tax on regular people. Rich people will have a workaround.

The main question on this matter is how many other states follow this path before other nations realize the benefits of embracing Bitcoin. Work > Pay Income Tax > Invest your money > Take risk > Pay half your profits to them.

➡️Bitcoin miner Marathon Digital Holdings has obtained a $200M credit line from an unnamed lender.

The loan is secured by a portion of the company's Bitcoin holdings and will be used for strategic investments and general corporate purposes.

➡️ETFs have taken in $1.64 BILLION in just 4 days.

On the 17th of October:

➡️BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF bought $391.8 MILLION worth of Bitcoin today. Since launching in January, Bitcoin ETFs officially broke $20 BILLION in net inflows. This milestone took gold ETFs about 5 years to achieve. Total assets now stand at $65B, another all-time high.

Bitcoin ETFs have taken in $1.7 BILLION in October so far. • IBIT: $1.27b • FBTC: $278m • BITB: $126m • ARKB: $29m

On the 18th of October:

Samson Mow, JAN3 Founder, speaks at the German Bundestag telling MPs about Bitcoin adoption for nation-states.

➡️Whales have been buying Bitcoin aggressively at an unprecedented pace.

➡️'When Bitcoin was $68k in 2021 the hash rate was 160M TH/s. Now it’s 661M TH/s. The network is 4x more secure. Large players are suppressing the price to stack at low prices, but they can’t fake the electricity numbers. Something will happen soon to the price!' -Bitcoin for Freedom

➡️Morgan Stanley reveals $272.1M Bitcoin ETF holdings in SEC filing.

➡️Although I don't like the guy, Anthony Pompliano, because of his BlockFi 'rocketship' endorsement, last week he was spot on as he destroyed a Fox Host who says Bitcoin is "way too volatile" to be used for savings. Pomp: "Since 2016, the average cost of an American house has increased by over 50% in dollars but has dropped 99% when measured in Bitcoin."

➡️SEC approves NSYE options trading on spot Bitcoin ETFs.

On the 19th of October:

➡️Bitcoin balance on exchanges hits a 5-year low.

On the 21st of October.

➡️Now at the beginning of the Weekly Recap I already showed how central banks are losing their mind(ECB in that case), as they lose their grip and control of money.

I don't wanna be doom and gloom, I rather want to write positive news... but sometimes I really think it is important to show you what on earth is going on.

Multiple different government entities suggested making Bitcoin illegal because people would rather buy Bitcoin and have the price go up than buy bonds and lose purchasing power to inflation.  All I know is if the government doesn't want you to have something that's often a good reason to get some. Especially when it's something that simply stores value! I 100% get why governments are against it. It's a threat to their unchecked money printing!

On this day the following paper came out. A paper from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve states that "a legal prohibition against Bitcoin can restore unique implementation of permanent primary deficits." Without Bitcoin to contend with, they believe the debt can go up forever.

You can find the paper here: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/working-papers/unique-implementation-of-permanent-primary-deficits

Technically a much better paper than the ECB one. Unfortunately, I am not surprised about that.

This is a real piece of research that identifies the key issue: consumers are too smart to fund forever deficits.

All these papers coming out are too timely. They are coordinating something against Bitcoin...central banks are freaking out… can you smell the panic in the air?

ECB - Bitcoin is so much better than fiat it could go to $10 million and make fiat holders worse off (I don't make that up)

FED - It's useless but we have to ban or tax the shit out of it so we can run deficits indefinitely

➡️Japan’s Democratic Party of the People leader pledges to cut Bitcoin and crypto taxes if elected. They will cut the taxes from 55% to 20% if the Democratic Party of the People wins the election.

➡️BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF is now the 3rd biggest ETF for 2024 inflows and the fastest-growing ETF ever!

➡️'October's Bitcoin mining revenue has plummeted by 70% from its March peak, with miners generating less than 9,000 BTC so far this month.' -Bitcoin News

💸Traditional Finance / Macro:

On the 18th of October:

👉🏽 Investor's allocation to stocks hit 61%, the highest level in at least 40 years. 'This share has ALMOST DOUBLED since 2009 and is in line with the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble levels.

The median value of US consumers’ stock holdings spiked to $250,000 in October, the most on record. Over the last 12 months, this amount has DOUBLED, according to the University of Michigan consumer survey. In 2010, Americans' investments in single stocks, mutual funds, and retirement accounts were worth just ~$50,000, or 5 times less.

Now, equities account for 48% of US households' net worth, the highest since the 2000 Dot-Com bubble peak.' -TKL

And this all is mostly with retirement money.

🏦Banks:

👉🏽no news

🌎Macro/Geopolitics:

On the 14th of October:

Google agrees to buy nuclear power from Small Modular Reactors to be built by Kairos Power.

ZeroHedge: "First it was Amazon, then Microsoft, now Google telegraphs why the "next AI trade" will generate obnoxious amounts of alpha in the coming years by sending the same message: i) it's all about how all those data centers will be powered, and ii) in the future a growing number of data centers will be powered by small modular nuclear reactors."

Senior director for energy and climate at Google, Michael Terrell, said on a call with reporters that "we believe that nuclear energy has a critical role to play in supporting our clean growth and helping to deliver on the progress of AI." Full article: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/google-inks-deal-nuclear-small-modular-reactor-company-power-data-centers

As of 2024, there are three operational small modular reactors (SMRs) in the world, located in different countries:

1. Russia - Akademik Lomonosov, a floating nuclear power plant operated by Rosatom. It is located in the Arctic town of Pevek, Chukotka. This is the world’s first floating nuclear plant.

2. China - Linglong One (ACP100), developed by the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC). This SMR is operational at the Changjiang Nuclear Power Plant in Hainan province, China.

3. Argentina - CAREM-25, developed by the Argentine state-owned company CNEA (Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica). This reactor is located in the Lima district, Buenos Aires province, near the Atucha Nuclear Power Plant. These SMRs are being used to demonstrate the feasibility of small-scale nuclear power generation for diverse applications.

On the 13h of October:

👉🏽The US money supply hit $21.17 trillion in August, the highest level since January 2023.

This also marks a fifth consecutive monthly increase in the US money supply. Over the last 10 months, the amount of US Dollars in circulation has jumped by a MASSIVE $484 billion.

In effect, the money supply is now just $548 billion below a new all-time high. After a brief decline, the quantity of money in the financial system is surging again raising concerns about another inflation wave. - TKL

I won't worry about a recession or something like that, but more on the inflation and debasement part.

On the 16th of October:

👉🏽'Let‘s take a look at Europe‘s largest economies: Germany - commits deindustrialization suicide France - 6% fiscal deficit during good times despite highest tax burden in Europe Italy & Spain - collapsing demographics, pensions and healthcare systems to follow.' - Michael A. Arouet

👉🏽In the last couple of months I have shared how the U.S. government did its revision on job reports and other data points.

Now the FBI "revised" violent crime data, reporting that instead of a 2.1% drop in violent crime in 2022, it was actually a 4.5% increase. They missed 1.699 murders in 2022. What are a few murders among friends, innit? '6.6 points of net swing. So basically took them 18 months to realize they had missed 1 in 15 violent crimes in the country.

Conveniently released after all debates complete + no future ones agreed. Don't want to be this cynical, I really don't, but they aren't leaving me any room' - Pi Prime Pi

All government data is fudged it seems. From jobs to the economy, and inflation... It's all just made up.

"Oopsie whoopsie we made a fucky wucky! And people (politicians) wonder why trust in institutions is cratering...

Just to give you another example...

'The US Treasury is supposed to release its Monthly Treasury Statement at 2 pm on the 8th business day of each month. We are now on the 13th business day of October and have still not received last month's report. No explanation or estimation, complete radio silence.' - James Lavish

On the 17th of October:

👉🏽ECB cuts interest rates again by 0.25 percentage points.

'The ECB cut rates and signals it is getting hastier to bring rates back to more 'neutral' levels. It's funny how many investors argue that this time is different and that the ECB would take it easy or even refrain from rate cuts. Eurozone GDP growth is going nowhere, not in the near term and definitely not in the long term. Official inflation numbers in all major Eurozone economies are below 2%, and France is making headlines every day concerning debt sustainability. In the long term, interest rates will be low or negative when corrected for inflation, while bond volatility will increase.' - Jeroen Blokland

👉🏽Gold is back in record territory:

Even as markets price in a chance of a NO rate cut in November, gold just broke above $2700/oz.

The US Dollar has strengthened by 3% since September 30th and gold prices are STILL positive this month. Bank of America warns that gold may be the last safe haven as US Treasuries face risks from surging national debt. We all know that it is not the last and best safe haven, got Bitcoin?

'The higher gold goes in EUR, the greater the % of Eurozone gold reserves as a % of total EZ reserves goes (the EZ marks its gold to mkt quarterly, like China & Russia, but unlike the US.) In extremis, this gives the ECB option of “QE Heavy” (print EUR, bid for gold)' - Luke Gromen

Gold is up 31% YTD, the best year since 1979. Bitcoin is up 60% YTD, a casual year so far.

Gold for the central banks. Bitcoin for the citizens. Bitcoin wins and power returns to the people!

👉🏽 Half a trillion increase in US debt in a few days before the election. The fiscal year ends in September. So in October, the US treasury injects liquidity. Still, crazy work to increase the debt by half a trillion.

https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny

James Lavish: 'Pure unadulterated reckless government spending and so an exponential rise in debt, requiring more units of debt to drive each unit of GDP. Madness.'

On the 18th of October:

👉🏽Last week I mentioned that China's CB launched a $70 billion funding program to stimulate the economy and the capital market.

But China is in a debt bubble: 'China’s debt-to-GDP ratio hit a jaw-dropping 366% in Q1 2024, a new all-time high. Since the 2008 Financial Crisis, the ratio has DOUBLED. To put this differently, for 1 unit of GDP, the Chinese economy has produced 3.66 units of debt burden. Non-financial corporates have the highest ratio, at 171%, followed by the government sector, at 86%. Households and financial entities' debt-to-GDP is 64% and 45%, respectively. Stimulus won't solve China's debt crisis.' - TKL.

On the 21st of October:

👉🏽The US just recorded the 3rd largest budget deficit in its entire history. The federal deficit hit a WHOPPING $1.83 trillion in Fiscal Year 2024 ended Sept. 30. In other words, the government borrowed a staggering $5 billion A DAY. This was only below the 2020 and 2021 pandemic years.

🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:

Technology Powered Freedom - Bitcoin, eCash & Nostr | Alex Gladstein x Peter McCormack:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5BVxfdYgNo

Credit: I have used multiple sources!

My savings account: Bitcoin

The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. (Please only use it till the 31st of October - after that full KYC)

Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀

Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.

Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.

▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃

⭐ Many thanks⭐

Felipe - Bitcoin Friday!

▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃