-
@ RebelOfBabylon
2025-03-06 11:55:18
Probably going to be very wrong but here it goes. Also want to mention I understand exponential progress and my predictions are very conservative. But I think in general we underestimate the challenges ahead for a lot of technologies and there is no guarantee that progress continues in an exponential fashion. Just because it has since the 1900s doesn't mean it has to continue that trend for the next 50 years. I also think we're in a cultural phase filled with pseudo-intellectuals and real intellectuals are somewhat villainized which is slowing progress. Progress in Academia is currently stagnating and I don't see that trend chaning much in 50 years. Anyway, The world in 2070:
- probably post-quantum (i.e. we will have an actually usable quantum computer). Though I think it will be an incredibly expensive machine owned by few rich organisations. I hope that it can be used like the James Webb Telescope and all of humanity gets a turn. I think the discoveries made from using quantum computers and their impacts will be incremental
- nuclear fusion achieved: I think by 2070 we will have a dozen nuclear fusion reactors in the world but they will be incredibly expensive to build.
- nuclear fission OTOH I think will be the primary source of energy production in most of the world and fossil fuel energy sources will be the 3rd largest source of power by then. Maybe something like geothermal or hydro electric will be 2nd
- climate change: we will be behind our goals but we will be passed peak emissions and with carbon capture maturing, I think we will be on a year by year basis shrinking the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere (though probably at a slower rate than we should be by then)
- electric cars will be ubiquitous with gas cars becoming the minority. In some places, they will be outright banned most likely
- I think we will have a sustained presence on the moon with colonies of a few thousand. Space travel will be affordable for upper middle class people. Mars will have been visited by Man but no sustained human presence yet (Elon under estimates the challenges)
- The Great Pacific Garbage Patch will be mostly gone. Big W for humanity
- I think humanoid robots to help in the workplace will be common but their capabilities will be limited and applicable situations also limited. Turns out its harder to automate manual labour than white collar work. This may be the one to have the biggest impact. Wealthier people may have a humanoid robot servant to do certain tasks at home (though it will probably be a vanity thing)
- No AI singularity by 2070 though AI by then will be better, incrementally so, than it is now. I think the current AI bubble will pop hard creating yet another AI winter where not much attention is given or progress is made.
- Bitcoin still won't be world reserve currency but it may be the back bone of much of the worlds trade by then.
- If a new tech changes our lives, we haven't heard of it yet.