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@ Galetaire
2025-05-16 17:32:56The rental population in Spain has grown from about 5 million in 2005 to around 10 million in 2025. During that same period, Spain's total population has increased by 6 million people, from 43 to 49 million. In other words, the entire population growth over the past 20 years has essentially gone straight into the rental market.
This demographic growth is not due to natural increase, Spain has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world. Instead, population growth is driven by a positive migratory balance, which has been the main factor behind the rise in rental demand.
This increased demand for rentals has pushed up rental prices, which have significantly outpaced the growth in property sale prices. That didn’t happen during the Great Financial Crisis. The growth in both demand and prices is allowing rental profitability to remain at the high end of the curve—around 5% net.
This situation explains the rise in housing squatting, from 2,000 cases in 2010 to 16,000 in 2024. Since the immigrant population is the main driver of this surge in rental demand, it is more vulnerable to squatting, as they often have no alternative housing when they are unable to pay.
The unemployment rate is currently low, however, if it were to rise (as it did during the Great Financial Crisis and other periods in the past), squatting would likely increase significantly, representing the main risk to the current real estate market in Spain.