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@ Morpheus
2025-04-14 02:57:37
Pomp: The unspoken secret as to why so many finance folks are wrong in their analysis of the tariffs is because the finance folks believe the government data.
They think inflation readings, jobs reports, GDP measurements, and other critical data points are accurate.
They will tell you till they are blue in the face that the data is accurate, everything is great, and the working class is dumb because they just don't understand how good they have it.
The truth is that anyone with common sense knows this data is wrong. Even the Treasury Secretary has now publicly acknowledged he doesn't believe the data. He says we must listen to the people, rather than blindly follow the government data reports.
If you have bad data, you can't have a good analysis.
Bitcoiners were the first large-scale group to recognize the economic data was wrong and they figured out a way to financially capture upside if they were right.
Eventually everyone else will realize the data is inaccurate. The mainstream finance conversation has become an intellectual boondoggle where most people regurgitate ill-informed takes based on bad data.
Critical thinking has left the building. Independent thought has been outlawed. If you don't share the consensus view, you are mocked and ridiculed. If you say something other than approved talking points, you are slurred with accusations of being a MAGA maniac.
But that doesn't make the consensus view right.
It was true with bitcoin and it will be true again with the tariffs. The economic data is inaccurate. Many of the widely accepted core beliefs of Keynesian economists have been disproven by the market. And the current consensus among economists will be just as wrong as it was every time they reached consensus over the last decade.
My word of caution to people is to refrain from following the herd. Take a look at the data and seek alternative data. Think critically. Maybe you end up at the consensus view after doing the work, or maybe you have a different view.
The crowd is usually wrong when they reach a point where dissent is outlawed.