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@ Undisciplined
2025-02-12 14:36:40
Here are today's picks using my proprietary betting strategy at [Freebitcoin](https://freebitco.in/?r=51325722). For details about what Risk Balanced Odds Arbitrage is and why it works see https://stacker.news/items/342765/r/Undisciplined.
For a hypothetical 1k-ish wager on each match, distribute your sats as follows:
| Outcome 1 | Outcome 2 | Outcome 3 | Bet 1 | Bet 2 | Bet 3 |
|--------------|-------------|--------------|-------|-------|-------|
| Juventus| Inter Milan| Draw | 294| 435| 303|
| Tottenham| Man United| Draw | 406| 357| 266|
| Liverpool| Wolves| Draw | 833| 67| 125|
| Valladolid| Sevilla| Draw | 222| 500| 289|
| Real Betis| Real Sociedad| Draw | 393| 321| 313|
| Osasuna| Real Madrid| Draw | 174| 619| 227|
| Barcelona| Rayo Vallecano| Draw | 818| 80| 133|
| Atletico Madrid| Celta Vigo| Draw | 692| 118| 217|
I'll be curious to see how @Coinsreporter does with his modified RBOA.
On the most recently completed sets of RBOA, I lost 700 sats on about 50k wagered. I'm not sure if that's just normal variance or if it's due to matches not being posted as far in advance, which reduces the early mover bonus.
I still haven't precisely identified where the threshold is, but it might be worth skipping any of these with a "time weight multiplier" lower than 90.
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A note of caution about Freebitcoin: they recorded the wrong outcome for last week's Bills vs Ravens game and as of yet have not corrected it. I recall one other instance of something similar happening, so proceed with caution.
This RBOA strategy is largely immune from that problem, but be aware of it when just betting on one outcome.
originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/883708