@ Bhang
2025-05-15 20:08:00
What if Kiir dies?
Envisioning the scenario in which President Kiir dies without a consensus-based successor
By Tor Madira Machier
The year is 2035, and a decade has passed since the sudden death of President Salva Kiir Mayardit. South Sudan, once a unified country, is now a fractured state, divided into tribal enclaves controlled by rival tribal military commanders, with no central government or authority to report to.
Benjamin Bol Mel, leader of the largest faction of SPLM-IG, has declared himself the “interim” leader of South Sudan. His rise to power following Kiir’s sudden death in 2025 sparked one of the deadliest factional infightings within the SPLM-IG, with generals from the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) — which was South Sudan’s national army — and influential tribal leaders resisting his authority.
Although recognized by Uganda, Kenya, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, Bol Mel's leadership has been largely ineffective in consolidating power. His control remains limited to Nimule, with the support of the Uganda People’s Defense Forces (UPDF) and remnants of the now-defunct SSPDF.
Juba, the once-thriving capital, has become a battleground dominated by armed militias. The National Salvation Front (NAS) now controls large swathes of the city, and the civilian population has been forced into overcrowded UN camps set up by the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).
The streets are filled with soldiers, displaced persons, and refugees, while the UN presence becomes a fragile lifeline for the few civilians who remain.
In the aftermath of Kiir’s death, a new presidential palace has been constructed in Nimule, located on South Sudan’s southern border with Uganda. The area is now controlled by a fragile alliance of remnants of the SSPDF and UPDF, yet this makeshift capital is constantly under siege by rival militias and factions, preventing the flow of aid and exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the country’s interior.
Years of rural and urban combats have gutted South Sudan’s cities from Rubkona in the North to Nimule in the South, and from Gok Machar in the West to Burebiey in the East. The conflict has paralyzed South Sudan's economy and infrastructure.
Thousands have been displaced within the country, with millions fleeing across the borders into neighboring countries. South Sudan’s population, which once topped 12 million, has now dropped to under 10 million as two million refugees have fled, and millions more remain in dire conditions in IDP camps managed by the UNMISS.
By 2030, five years after Kiir’s death, which was initially reported as a heart attack, foreign businesses — especially those owned by Sudanese, Kenyans, Ethiopians, Eritreans, and Ugandans — have all but ceased operations. Anarchy has spread throughout the country, and Bol Mel’s authority is confined to Nimule, with the support of the UPDF.
Nuer generals and politicians, once allies of late President Kiir in the SPLM-IG, have now aligned themselves with the SPLM-IO, which has grown weaker under Nathaniel Oyet following the detention of its leader Riek Machar in March 2025, a few months before Kiir’s death.
Machar’s whereabouts remain unknown, with rumors circulating that he was assassinated amid the chaos following Kiir’s death as Bol Mel moved to consolidate power and eliminate potential opposition to his rule.
Oyet, who now claims leadership of a newly declared autonomous entity, the “Democratic Republic of Sudan,” with Bentiu as its capital, is the figurehead of the SPLM-IO.
However, Oyet’s leadership is largely symbolic. He is viewed as a puppet with minimal authority, as the Nuer generals retain the real power and control in the Greater Upper Nile region. Oyet’s efforts to assert his leadership have largely been unsuccessful and have only deepened the divisions within the SPLM-IO, resulting in frequent infighting.
In Upper Nile, fighting between rival factions, including the Nuer White Army, Dinka, and Shilluk militias, has left cities, including what was the state and regional capital, Malakal, devastated, with no clear victor. The White Army has committed massacres in the greater Fashoda region, displacing hundreds of thousands of civilians, some of whom fled into White Nile State in Sudan.
The United States has labeled the killings of Nuer civilians in Juba, following the mysterious disappearance of Riek Machar from prison, as genocide.
Bol Mel, in turn, has been declared a war criminal by the International Criminal Court (ICC) and is now wanted for prosecution. His attempts to consolidate power have only deepened the infighting within his faction of SPLM-IG.
Meanwhile, in Greater Equatoria, Thomas Cirilo declared the region’s secession and the formation of an independent country, the “Republic of Equatoria.” This declaration of autonomy has effectively split the country further, with the Equatorians now fighting to secure their independence.
Cirilo’s forces control strategic parts of Equatoria, and despite limited recognition, they continue to hold the region’s capital, Juba, under siege, alongside other key towns in the area. Cirilo's push for independence, combined with the region's vital resources, especially agriculture and access to Uganda, has sparked heated debates about the future of South Sudan.
Meanwhile, Oyet's leadership has made controversial arrangements with Sudan, allowing China to explore the oil fields in Tharjath, Unity, and Paloich. However, due to the ongoing conflict between militias, Paloich has been effectively closed as fighting between factions has rendered it unsafe for oil operations.
Sudan has seized this opportunity to deepen its economic ties with the new country, while the oil-rich areas continue to be a flashpoint for violence, as rival militias vie for control over these resources.
In Western Bahr el Ghazal and Western Equatoria, the Blanda and Lou militias control cities like Wau and Raja, and their influence extends to the border areas with South Darfur in Sudan. These militias remain some of the most formidable in the region, with a history of brutal warfare and resource control.
Meanwhile, in Upper Nile, Nathaniel Oyet's self-declared transitional leadership has created a fragile government, and General John Turuk Khor, a former SPLA-IO division commander in Unity State, now leads as the Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Sudan (AFDRS), the military arm of the self-declared autonomous region.
The country is left with deep divisions, and even as factions declare autonomy, the violence never ceases. In the absence of a strong, central government or a clear leader to unite the people, South Sudan is descending further into chaos, with competing military forces controlling parts of the country. No region is truly safe, and rival militias dominate, while humanitarian efforts struggle to make headway against the ongoing violence.
Internationally, South Sudan’s once-close ties with neighboring countries have frayed. Uganda, Kenya, and DR Congo have backed Bol Mel’s government, but they have shown little interest in getting involved in the country’s internal chaos beyond the protection of gold mines in Eastern Equatoria that keeps Bol Mel’s de facto government operational.
South Sudan’s former ally, Ethiopia, has distanced itself, focusing on its internal challenges and regional instability, but has taken control of eastern areas such as Maiwut, and Longechuk to prevent violent spillover. Relations with Sudan have also become increasingly strained, especially given Sudan’s interest in exploiting South Sudan’s oil resources and ties with the Bentiu-based de facto leadership.
NOTE:
This is a fictional scenario exploring the potential consequences of President Kiir's sudden death without a clear, consensual succession plan. The lack of a smooth transition of power has plunged South Sudan into political and economic chaos, fueling ongoing factional fighting, humanitarian crises, and the fragmentation of the nation. With no effective leadership in place, power struggles and regional divisions are likely to persist, worsening instability and suffering. This scenario emphasizes the critical need for an institutionalized leadership succession, national dialogue, and strong governance structures to ensure the country’s stability, survival, and unity.