@ Kyle Huber

## The Logic Behind “I’m Too Late to Bitcoin” It makes sense why someone who hasn’t researched Bitcoin would assume that they are too late to the game. Bitcoin’s first known transaction took place on May 22nd, 2010, when Laszlo Hanyecz, a programmer, offered 10,000 Bitcoins (approximately $41 at the time) to anyone who could obtain two large Papa John’s pizzas and deliver them to his doorstep. Laszlo established Bitcoin’s first price, less than half a cent. Since then, Bitcoin has faced relentless attacks from nation states, banks, sophisticated hackers, and subject to endless slander from the media… all while growing to a market cap of $1.5 trillion. From $0.0041 to $65,000 is a 15-million bagger. Due to the law of large numbers, you’re not likely to see another 15,000,000x return without severe hyperinflation; but the question at hand is not whether you’re too late to get insanely rich off a tiny investment in a short period of time. The question is, **are you too late to dramatically improve your and your loved ones’ lives with Bitcoin?** The answer is unequivocally, NO. Disclaimer: Bitcoin is a disruptive technology laying the foundation for an entirely new economic system. It should be noted, as [Jeff Booth](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeHodRch11Y), author of [The Price of Tomorrow](https://www.audible.com/pd/The-Price-of-Tomorrow-Audiobook/B08724Y81K) says, “anything that attempts to value the new system in terms of the old system is fundamentally flawed.” Thinking about Bitcoin in terms of dollars has a number of pitfalls, including that it makes Bitcoin seem volatile. In reality, 1 BTC = 1 BTC. Nonetheless, number-go-up does more marketing for Bitcoin than anything else, which is why it’s useful to this discussion. This is evidenced by the following chart of retail adoption vs. price. As price rises, new buyers enter the market. When price falls, they exit. Bitcoin has seen multiple 75%+ corrections, including a 35% correction this year. Without strong conviction around Bitcoin’s long-term value, these draw-downs tend to shake Bitcoin holders out and discourage them from returning. However, even during the worst performing four year period in Bitcoin’s history (December 2017-2021), you would still have seen a 23% [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/compound-annual-growth-rate-what-you-should-know/). Lowering your time preference is key to weathering Bitcoin’s short-term price volatility. When in doubt, zoom out. ## Reason 1: Money is a Technology and Bitcoin is Better Money Money is an emergent technology that solves the [Double Coincidence of Wants Problem](https://amber.app/education/the-double-coincidence-of-wants/). People have used beads, shells, large rocks and cacao beans as money, but there have only been two layer one monies adopted globally: gold and dollars. Gold was a widely accepted form of money for 5,000 years because it outperformed the alternatives in terms of its durability, portability and divisibility. Gold backed the US Dollar until 1971… how the dollar became unpegged from gold is a discussion for another day. The point is, dollars (paper IOUs) were easier to move, divide and trade, which is largely why gold failed. Bitcoin is more durable, portable and divisible than both gold and dollars which is part of makes it the best money ever discovered. For more on how Bitcoin obsoletes all other monies, here are a few books to read: 1. [The Bitcoin Standard](https://saifedean.com/tbs) by Saifadean Ammous 2. [Gradually, Then Suddenly](https://thesaifhouse.com/) by Parker Lewis 3. [Broken Money](https://thesaifhouse.com/) by Lyn Alden 4. [The Hidden Cost of Money](https://sebbunney.com/the-hidden-cost-of-money/) by Seb Bunney ## Reason 2: Inflation Protection Beyond the three aforementioned properties, money’s most important function is storing purchasing power through time. When demand for gold increases, gold production increases. When demand for dollars increases (i.e. the government wants to finance a war or manipulate the economy), the bankers and politicians simply create more, diluting the value of the current dollars in circulation. While it is difficult to say exactly how much purchasing power the dollar has lost over a specific time frame, I don’t need to convince you that the prices of food, gas, rent, etc. have increased dramatically in recent years. Keynesian economists assert that 2% inflation is healthy and the “velocity” of money helps to “grease the economic wheels.” This is a fallacy with profound implications. **A 2% annual inflation rate halves the value of money in approximately 36 years**. As a result, the average person must become an investor in their free time, using assets like stocks and real estate to protect themselves from debasement. But not everyone has the ability to invest in stocks, or purchase real estate. Currency debasement increases the wealth gap between people who save in hard assets and people who save in cash. Bitcoin is more accessible and scarce than stocks or real estate, making it a superior store of value. The following chart shows the relationship between the monetary base and inflation. ## Reason 3: Increased Purchasing Power Over Time Historical data indicates that Bitcoin is likely to buy more goods and services in the future than it does today. While this is not an investment pitch, Bitcoin’s dollar price does more marketing than anything else. Try this exercise- consider the three most valuable assets you own. Your car, house, computer, maybe a private jet? How much did they cost at the time in terms of dollars and in terms of Bitcoin? How much would it cost for you to purchase that same asset today in terms of dollars? What about in terms of Bitcoin? This chart shows the price of an average home in terms of the two competing monies, highlighting Bitcoin’s increasing purchasing power vs. the dollar’s erosion of value. Over a 4+ year time frame, it’s almost guaranteed that these three assets would cost less Bitcoin today, and more dollars (Anthony Pompliano [explains this](https://x.com/APompliano/status/1846302253994418321) in relation to the median home). The key insight here is that Bitcoin is [already re-pricing all assets](https://x.com/TheRealPlanC/status/1846092137001025874). As long as Bitcoin remains decentralized and secure, this trend is likely to continue. The counter argument here is that the same could be said about gold or stocks. Gold already failed as money and you can’t buy anything with stocks. While Bitcoin is not yet a widely accepted medium of exchange, it is [already being used to purchase assets](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/buying-and-selling-real-estate-with-bitcoin) such as real estate. ## Reason 4: A Growing Network, Lagging Price Price and market cap are metrics that fail to capture the Bitcoin network‘s overall growth. Bitcoin’s price topped $67k in November 2021 before entering a bear market that bottomed around $16k. As of today (October 2024) the USD/BTC exchange rate is dancing between $60-70k/BTC. Based on this one metric, we could conclude that Bitcoin’s growth has been stagnant for three years. This is an incorrect assessment. While BTC price has not surpassed it’s inflation-adjusted all-time highs in three years, [other metrics](https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#alltime) such as [hash rate](https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2021/02/05/what-does-hashrate-mean-and-why-does-it-matter/), difficulty adjustment, active nodes, stock-to-flow, and on-chain analytics tell a different story. As you can see in the chart above, [Bitcoin’s hash rate](https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/hash-rate) continues to increase over time. Bitcoin miners are directing more and more energy to the network, making it more robust and secure. Miners have skin in the game, and the fact that hash rate continues to increase is a signal that they expect the network to continue growing. Add to that the number of full Bitcoin nodes, active wallet addresses, increased mining difficulty and supply distribution. These metrics point to Bitcoin’s growth, with price being a lagging indicator. ## Reason 5: Supply and Demand: Institutional and Corporate Adoption Institutions and corporations have opened the floodgates for larger pools of capital to flow into Bitcoin. In 2024, Bitcoin ETFs set record inflows and quickly became [top 10 funds](https://www.cryptopolitan.com/bitcoin-etfs-emerge-as-top-performers/) in terms of [AUM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assets_under_management), causing a ruckus on Wall Street. Corporations are adopting Bitcoin as a treasury asset, adding it to their balance sheet instead of holding cash, T-Bills or bonds. MicroStrategy (MSTR) pioneered the [Bitcoin treasury playbook](https://x.com/80iqmindset/status/1844698007796604970?s=46&t=z2jIevProCcB36QZ9PtIWg), and since August 2020 has [outperformed every single company](https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1846656960290267190) in the S&P 500, including Invidia (NVDA). The predicament MicroStrategy faced in 2020 is not unique. Companies with cash and cash equivalents on their balance sheets are holding a melting fiat ice cube, losing purchasing power every day. Saylor’s strategy is being replicated by other companies such as Square, Semler Scientific, Fold and others. What happens when Apple or Microsoft decides to put 5% of its treasury into Bitcoin? Sovereign wealth funds and nation states are also starting to adopt Bitcoin. El Salvador [adopted bitcoin as legal tender in 2021](https://www.investopedia.com/el-salvador-accepts-bitcoin-as-legal-tender-5200470) and has been purchasing 1 BTC every day since. [Bhutan](https://www.forbes.com/sites/iainmartin/2023/04/30/bhutan-bitcoin-mining-crypto/) has been quietly mining Bitcoin for years. [Wisconsin’s pension fund](https://www.wpr.org/news/wisconsin-pension-fund-bitcoin) now holds Bitcoin. US politicians are discussing Bitcoin as a [strategic reserve asset](https://www.lummis.senate.gov/press-releases/lummis-announces-revolutionary-proposal-to-supercharge-the-dollar-bolster-u-s-economy/). Rewind just a few years and all of this would sound ludicrous. The Overton window has shifted and Bitcoin is no longer just magic internet money for money laundering and illegal transactions. These groups are driving demand, but what about supply? Since 2021 the amount of Bitcoin issued to the network [halved](https://www.coinbase.com/bitcoin-halving), from 6.5 BTC/block (\~900 BTC/day) to 3.125 BTC/block (450 per day). \~19,570,000 or 93% of Bitcoin have been mined to date, and by 2034, 99% of all Bitcoin ever to exist will be in circulation, or lost. Michael Saylor aptly describes the coming decade as the “Digital Gold Rush.” Bitcoin’s absolute scarcity is something humanity has never experienced before. ## Reason 6: Overcoming Unit Bias Bitcoin’s unit bias causes many people to think they are too late to Bitcoin. From an early age, we are conditioned to think in terms of dollars. At $0.05, $5, $500, or even $5,000, owning a full Bitcoin was feasible on an entry-level salary. But today, only [1 in 3 Americans can afford a $400 emergency expense](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-24/two-in-three-can-t-cover-400-emergency-in-us-suze-orman-survey). Acquiring a full Bitcoin is out of the question, so why even try? What these folks fail to see is that is that mathematically, owning 1 BTC was never going to achievable for the average person. If you divide Bitcoin’s total supply, 21 million, by 8 billion, the current global population, the result is .002625 Bitcoin or 262,500 Satoshis (a Satoshi is 1/100,000,000th of a Bitcoin). However, Bitcoin ownership is not evenly distributed. MicroStrategy currently [holds more than 252,000 BTC](https://treasuries.bitbo.io/microstrategy/). Once you account for the 20-30% of coins already lost forever, there’s no way everyone can own 262k sats. At the time of writing, 262k sats is worth \~$170. You read that right. For $170 you can buy more Bitcoin than the average person will ever own. Unlike stocks, Bitcoin does not have CEO who can decide to do a share split to avoid unit bias, which means those who can wrap their head around this are likely to adopt Bitcoin sooner. ## Reason 7: Not Just a Store of Value – Bitcoin Use Cases Bitcoin is versatile. People with differing pain points and needs use Bitcoin in distinct ways. In the West, Bitcoin is typically thought of as a store of value. “Do you invest in Bitcoin?” “At what price will you sell?” In other countries, Bitcoin is useful for different reasons. For example, a [Ukrainian refugee was able to escape to Poland](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/bitcoin-enables-ukrainian-refugee-escape) with much of his wealth, rather than leave everything he worked for behind. Bitcoin is also being used to [get aid to Gaza](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/palestinian-taxi-driver-uses-bitcoin-save-civilians-gaza), and [facilitate P2P transactions in Nigeria](https://www.techbooky.com/nigeria-leads-top-countries-for-crypto-adoption-binance/). Cross-border [remittances](https://www.coindesk.com/consensus-magazine/2023/04/17/send-globally-crypto-remittance-service/) are another way Bitcoin is giving power back to the people. These use cases are happening all over the world today. Because Bitcoin is a digital bearer asset protected by the strongest cryptographic network ever created, it provides optionality for an uncertain future. Human Rights Foundation Chief Strategy Officer, Alex Gladstein makes the case that Bitcoin has four primary use cases: savings, commerce, freedom and power. You can listen to his episode on What Bitcoin Did, [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TI3Xcei8d_I&t=2s). In addition to Alex’s thesis on four primary use cases, Bitcoin researcher Daniel Batten outlines [19 ways bitcoin is already being used](https://open.spotify.com/episode/0RNZ4phKcn0RjrHc5GE8ln). Bitcoin has even more potential because it is not just a store of value. ## Conclusion THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS BEING “TOO LATE” TO BITCOIN. Is it too late to start eating healthy? Is it too late to start working out? Is it too late to start an internet-based business? Of course not. In the same way, it’s never too late to study and ultimately plug Bitcoin into your life.  As [BTC Sessions](https://x.com/BTCsessions) articulates, “the last person on earth to adopt Bitcoin will benefit from it immensely.” There’s no arguing that the longer you wait, and the higher Bitcoin’s price goes, the harder it will be to acquire a certain amount of Bitcoin, but even if you don’t adopt it personally, Bitcoin is threatening the power of the money printer and creating more transparency and fairness in the economic system. You get Bitcoin at the price you deserve. I remember when Bitcoin’s price was $23. I didn’t deserve it then. It took the government sending me a $1400 stimulus check in 2020 to buy my first Bitcoin, and it’s changed my life in many ways since. Bitcoin’s eventual USD-denominated price is already known: infinity / 21M. Bitcoin has no ceiling because fiat has no floor. In conclusion, I hope this article sparked some curiosity to learn more about how Bitcoin solves the age-old problem of currency debasement. Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin so that you could create the life you are meant to live. Last thing- the arguments in this article still hold up once Bitcoin’s price surpasses $100k, $1M or $10M. The only thing that would make you too late to Bitcoin is if the network itself is no longer secure or decentralized. Listen to the episode here: <https://fountain.fm/episode/T7Yh2vmBOfNAc3RKTU2p>