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@ Morpheus
2025-04-21 21:02:29
Everything is fine until everything collapses.
The Dutch were the world’s most powerful empire a few centuries ago with the worlds most powerful monopoly, navy, and trade routes.
Everything was great until they demonetized their own spice trade. They were so effective they eroded the value of their balance sheet, had a feedback loop of cultural decline, and then the debt exploded.
Debt can continue to be refinanced until suddenly there is no demand for the debt.
Stocks can continue to expand valuations until there is no demand for sovereign debt.
The Dutch made it for 300 years then the whole thing fell apart. Stocks collapsed, yields skyrocketed, and spices became now affordable for everyone. These three charts don’t even show the worst of it.
This will take years more to unfold. I’ve been saying this for 5 years and we are only now beginning to see Bitcoin really wake up.
The globally dominant reserve asset is the risk free rate. That used to be Treasuries now it is becoming Bitcoin.
Growing up everybody told me that I was smart and that I should study history and now that I have nobody wants to hear it.
Somebody tell me how I’m wrong. For 5+ years my belief in this continues and every time I find someone who disagrees with me it is not convincing. Then every person I meet who agrees with me is smarter than I.
The faster we build new productivity the faster we have a collateral problem and the faster everything collapses to never recover.
Not a 20%-40% collapse… more like 97%-99%.
Somebody tell me why this time is different but hundreds of examples in history I think will beg to differ.
How can we monetize the debt forever when we are demonetizing labor and goods? We can’t.