@ Felipe

🧠Quote(s) of the week:

'The world has a 0.1% allocation to Bitcoin. Another way to think about this: 1% of the world has a 10% allocation. 99% of the world still has a 0% allocation. It's still so early for Bitcoin.' -Jesse Myers

'The length of time that someone has been a Bitcoiner neither indicates how wealthy they are nor is it correlated to how well they understand Bitcoin.' - Jameson Lopp

🧡Bitcoin news🧡

On the 30th of September:

➡️'If Bitcoin continues following the trajectory of global M2 money supply, it's heading to $90,000 before the end of the year.' -Joe Consorti

Have you already read last week's gift - Lyn Alden's & Sam Callahan's article/research? No?

The research suggests that Bitcoin is more closely tied to global liquidity conditions than other assets, making it a valuable macro barometer for investors: https://www.lynalden.com/bitcoin-a-global-liquidity-barometer/

➡️Taiwan's Financial Supervisory Commission has announced that professional investors can now access Bitcoin ETFs under specific regulations and oversight.

➡️Ohio State Senator, Niraj Antani, introduces groundbreaking bill to allow all state and local taxes to be paid in Bitcoin. The states will lead.

➡️ On this day, Argentina's President Milei met El Salvador's President Bukele. Argentina's Vice President talks with El Salvador's President about their Bitcoin volcano bonds  "Bitcoin is something that interests me a lot"

On the 1st of October:

➡️There's little spot market activity, suggesting waning interest and potential price stabilization. Bitcoin needs a catalyst to rally significantly, per Bitfinex.

➡️Bitcoin just closed the month UP 7.3%. The biggest September gain in 11 years. When Bitcoin goes up in September, it continues going up every single month in Q4. 3 out of 3 since 2013.

➡️Robinhood now allows European users to withdraw Bitcoin and crypto to external wallets - CNBC

➡️Galaxy Digital predicted that ETH ETFs would receive $1bn of net inflows per month for the first 5 months

We are over 2 months in, and ETH ETFs have actually had NET-NEGATIVE flows How did they misread the market this badly? Here you can find the report

They hired an ETH "expert" (shill) for the analysis. What could go wrong...brutal just brutal! Don't do shitcoins ladies & gentlemen.

➡️ Spot Bitcoin ETFs bought up all the BTC mined in September.

➡️Metaplanet has purchased an additional ~107.91 Bitcoin for ¥1 billion at an average price of ¥9,266,724 per Bitcoin.  As of October 1, Metaplanet holds ~506.745 Bitcoin acquired for ¥4.75 billion at an average price of ¥9,373,557 per Bitcoin.

On the 2nd of October:

➡️'Less than 20% of the Bitcoin in circulation has moved in the past 6 months.' -Wicked Meanwhile, the 6-month HODL Wave has risen above 80%—a level that bitcoin has only surpassed once, roughly a year ago. Ergo supply is starting to get really tight.

➡️Blackrock and Fidelity Bitcoin ETFs are among the best launches of the last ten years. Bitcoin has shaken up the wall street. IBIT $23.2 Billion assets FBTC $11 Billion assets

➡️$526 million leveraged Bitcoin positions were liquidated in just 24 hours. Don't do leveraged plays people, REKT!

On the 3rd of October:

➡️Talking about Blackrock and how Bitcoin has shaken up Wall Street. BlackRock has become Bitcoin’s biggest advocate. Now they’re posting charts showing the decline of US dollar purchasing power. And show how Bitcoin through the lens of a global monetary alternative. Let that sink in for a minute. The largest asset manager in the world making a well-polished case for Bitcoin to clients with a ginormous chart of the decimation of the dollar's purchasing power since the establishment of the Fed.

They even said during the conference in Brazil: "BlackRock says Bitcoin is “Risk Off” as a global monetary alternative, while ETH is “Risk On” as a blockchain play Bitcoin is money, the rest of “crypto” is just a gamble.

On the 4th of October:

➡️Coinbase will delist all unauthorized stablecoins, including Tether, from its crypto exchange in the EU by year-end.

The EU’s new MiCA rules, fully effective Dec. 31, require stablecoin issuers to hold e-money authorization in a member state.

➡️IMF calls for El Salvador to limit Bitcoin exposure. This is after the IMF admits (Official IMF press conference): that a key reason why it’s withholding funds from El Salvador is that it doesn’t like Bitcoin and the fact that the government has added it to its national treasury. The IMF is a monetary colonialist.

What the IMF is screaming out loud from the rooftop is: „ If you don‘t stop this Bitcoin thing we can‘t suppress you anymore and then we are fucked“ El Salvador just like "I don't care" and „F*** you“.

On the 7th of October:

➡️Metaplanet has purchased an additional ~108.79 Bitcoin for ¥1 billion at an average price of ¥9,192,359 per Bitcoin.

As of October 7, Metaplanet holds ~639.50 Bitcoin acquired for ¥5.965 billion at an average price of ¥9,326,856 per Bitcoin.

➡️Bitcoin is the best-performing asset so far this year - NYDIG

➡️Mayor of Rockdale, Texas writes an opinion letter on how Bitcoin mining revitalized his town.

“We are on the cusp of a new economic renaissance - a digital energy boom - thanks to Bitcoin.”

💸Traditional Finance / Macro:

On the 1st of October:

👉🏽Blackrock AUM is $ 10 trillion, and only the US and China's GDPs exceed this. That's how big Blackrock is. It has a shareholding in the majority of the public companies & controlling influence.

Holger Zschaepitz: "BlackRock is eating the world. Since its IPO in Oct 1999, the share has returned an average of 20.7% per year, completely outperforming the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, which have only returned 8.2% and 9.7% per year respectively. BlackRock even outperformed Amazon and Microsoft, with only Apple and Nvidia doing better.

🏦Banks: 

On the 2nd of October:

👉🏽Bank of America is down: Customers report widespread outage, zero balances shown — CNN

Jameson Lopp: 'What if I told you this is actually an accuracy improvement: there's no money in those accounts...' But what if they shut down electricity, how will you use Bitcoin then? Checkmate, motherfucker.

🌎Macro/Geopolitics:

On the 30th of September: 👉🏽Zimbabwe Central Bank in April 2024: ''We've launched a gold-backed currency and promise to never devalue it again. Zimbabwe Central Bank in September 2024: ''A 43% devaluation of our brand new gold-backed currency

👉🏽China's stock market is up another 4% today for a total gain of 16% over the last 5 days after economic stimulus was announced. It feels like 2020 all over again. Hello, liquidity! To give you some perspective: China is now the world’s best-performing market this year. For context, China went from the worst-performing market of 2024 to the best-performing within 15 days.

Talking about China...

👉🏽'One of the best measures of living standards and real GDP growth is electricity consumption. Since electricity is difficult to store in large quantities, electricity generation tends to be a reasonable proxy for electricity consumption. Interesting chart given that context.' -Luke Gromen (foto) Now we need to put that in context though. 1.4 Billion Chinese  .333B Americans To reach parity the Chinese would need to be producing 420% of the electricity... or 17000 TW hours. They are closing in. They are about 6-10 years from reaching parity if they keep the same rate of bringing new supplies online. I'm curious to see how all the new Data Centers, Chip manufacturing plants, cooling needs, etc., being brought online affect both supply lines.

Remember, energy is the lifeblood of a country. So it is fascinating to see that new photos show that China is building America's best nuclear reactor design at record speeds to become #1 in nuclear power.

The Lianjiang nuclear plant 12 months after Unit 1 construction started. Only 24 months after the first dig. I am skeptical about its safety. Communists tend to do half-ass too many things. AP1000s on a 4-year schedule.

On the 1st of October:

👉🏽The Germans, once an economic powerhouse, are far behind and almost at the bottom of the scale. Differences in GDP growth between European countries during the last five years are significant. Some countries follow smart, business-friendly policies, others don’t. Choices have consequences, vote wisely. Chart by Daniel Kral Europe Macro at Oxford Economics

As if Europe, but especially Germany wouldn’t have enough problems, in just a few years millions of people will reach retirement age and blow up its retirement and healthcare system. With rising unemployment in Germany due to its industrial suicide, who is supposed to pay for this?

How I love Twitter, the following statement/chart and tweet is from Paul Vanitas: 'German pension system in one chart:

The average worker has to pay 18.6% of their gross wage into the system. After retirement, they only get a fraction of this back.

Note that things will get much worse in the next years when the boomers will retire. Note also that the pension system is already supported with taxpayer money today. How can it still be that bad?'

With Germany’s aging population and declining birth rates, the strain on the system is increasing. In 1960, there were 6.4 workers for every retiree - by 2020, that number had dropped to around 2.7. Projections suggest it could fall below 2 by 2040, which is why reforms are being discussed to ensure long-term sustainability.

👉🏽'Total money supply in the US, the Euro Area, Japan, and China has reached a new record of a MASSIVE $89.7 trillion.

Global money supply has skyrocketed by $7.3 trillion over the last year. This marks the largest increase in 3 years and a similar jump to the initial pandemic response seen in the first half of 2020.

In the US alone, the amount of money in circulation has surged $410 billion year-over-year, to $21.2 trillion. To put this into perspective, at the beginning of 2020 the US money supply was 27% below current levels. Global money printing is back.' -TKL

👉🏽'There were 21 interest rate cuts conducted by global central banks in September, the most since April 2020.

Outside of the pandemic response, this is the third largest month of monetary easing since 2008. This all comes as central banks across the globe believe they can achieve a "soft landing." Meanwhile, Germany’s GDP is expected to contract for 2 straight years for the first time since 2002.

China is also on track to miss its annual economic growth target of 5% as it fight the streak of deflation since 1999. Can central banks really save the day here?' - TKL

On the 3rd of October:

👉🏽The US Treasury added $204 billion of debt on the first day of the new fiscal year, and total debt now stands at $35.7 trillion. Total US debt has exploded to $35.7 trillion—up $345 billion in just 3 days. That's 1/4 of Bitcoin's market cap added to the national debt in a single weekend.

👉🏽James Lavish: "The 2024 Federal Government Fiscal Year is in the books. This one added another $2.3T of Federal Debt to finish out the year at $35.5T, a brand new all-time high. Well done, everyone. Bravo.

'US public debt has jumped $345 billion over the last 3 days hitting another record of $35.7 trillion. Since June 2023, federal debt has surged by a MASSIVE $4 trillion, or 14%. Over the same period, US GDP is up just $1.5 trillion, or ~6%. In other words, the national debt has outpaced the economic growth by 2.7 TIMES over the last 16 months. Outside of the pandemic crisis, US federal debt has never grown so rapidly.' -TKL Nothing stops this train! If you really think the US government can balance their budget and decrease their federal debt, without hurting the economy, without low inflation, well you are a fool.

On the 4th of October:

👉🏽Tough chart:

After adjusting for inflation, the level of economic activity in Greece and Italy is still lower than before the global financial crisis (more than 15 years ago). Poland with by far the strongest real GDP growth since 2007.

On the 6th of October:

👉🏽Global Liquidity entering the next bullish phase in a long-term cycle:

You know what will happen. More inflation and asset prices are going to rip.

👉🏽The US government created backdoors at Internet Service Providers (ISP) to spy on its citizens.

China then hacked these backdoors and used them to spy on the U.S. - WSJ Chinese hackers massively wiretapped the USA by compromising the interception portals mandated under US law.

Remember this the next time a government demands encryption backdoors. https://www.wsj.com/tech/cybersecurity/u-s-wiretap-systems-targeted-in-china-linked-hack-327fc63b?st=byoB7m

👉🏽Hillary Clinton says social platforms like 𝕏 need to censor or “we lose total control.” Who is this we?

On the 7th of October:

👉🏽And just like that, the yield on the 10-year US government bond, a global benchmark, is back at 4%.

The 10-year note yield is now up 40 basis points since the "Fed pivot" began on September 18th. For the first time since August 8th, the 10-year note yield is above 4.0%. Just days ago, markets were calling for 2 MORE 50 basis point cuts in 2024. It seems the bond market quickly lost faith in the so-called "Fed pivot," and it’s fascinating to see the yield curve flip negative again so soon after the big rate cut.

🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:

The latest Preston Pysh pod: Bitcoin Mastermind Q3 2024 w/ Joe Carlasare, Jeff Ross, & American HODL (BTC202)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kgpeH9MOg0

Credit: I have used multiple sources!

My savings account: Bitcoin

The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. (Please only use it till the 31st of October - after that full KYC)

Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀

Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀

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⭐ Many thanks⭐

Felipe - Bitcoin Friday!

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