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@ Felipe
2025-05-02 19:35:35🧠Quote(s) of the week:
'We are watching the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of the world. You are either on the right side, or you are not..... This is for all of the marbles.' - Lawrence Lepard
https://i.ibb.co/20SknGYv/Gpeq-ZCq-Wo-AAww-a.jpg
“Well, well, well… how the turntables.” ~Michael Scott
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
42,000 BTC taken off exchanges in the last month. ETFs bought 4,500 BTC yesterday (21st of April), and gold is doing all-time highs every day. Something is brewing.
On the 21st of April:
➡️Oregon Attorney General Dan Rayfield sues Coinbase over unregistered securities sales.
➡️It makes sense that capital will flow from real estate to Bitcoin.
Over 20 years:
$100K in Bitcoin at 30% CAGR = $19M.
$100K in real estate at 10% CAGR = only $670K.
The difference in potential long-term returns is astronomical. https://i.ibb.co/r2nS4ftN/Gp-Fh5-UWXEAAc-Jo-H.jpg
On the 22nd of April:
➡️The Swiss National Bank is loading up big on Saylor’s Strategy https://i.ibb.co/SwXZKZ6F/Gp-IIN1-Wg-AA-l-F.jpg
➡️https://i.ibb.co/JFC05nvb/Gp-JG9yca8-AACQXW.jpg Bitcoin is following the money/M2
➡️The first time Bitcoin hit $88,000 (Nov 11), Ethereum was trading at $3377. Today, with Bitcoin trading at $88,000, Ethereum is trading at $1562 (-54%). Incredible, yet so unsurprising.
➡️American Funds Has Bought 3.3 Million Strategy₿ Stocks For 1.03 Billion Dollars At A Average Price Of $307.5 Per Share In Q1 2025.
➡️The market dominance of Bitcoin continues to rise. https://i.ibb.co/DfcJ4CCb/Gp-Ix-Xll-XAAAnv3m.jpg
➡️ Bitcoin surges above $90,000 for the first time since March 7th.
➡️Pro-Bitcoin Paul Atkins was officially sworn in as the new SEC Chair.
➡️US Bitcoin ETFs posted their strongest inflow day, ETFs bought $381 MILLION worth of BTC, since January yesterday.
On the 23rd of April:
➡️Cantor Fitzgerald, Tether, and SoftBank are forming a $3B Bitcoin investment vehicle, with Tether contributing $1.5B in BTC. Bitfinex and SoftBank will add $600M and $900M. Modeled after Saylor’s playbook, the firm aims to absorb billions in Bitcoin. Jack Mallers to be the CEO of SoftBank, Cantor, Tether, and Bitfinex's "multibillion-dollar bitcoin acquisition vehicle". Twenty-One is set to launch with 42,000+ BTC.
'Masayoshi Son's biggest Bitcoin bet yet. In 2017, Softbank's Son personally bought ~$200M of Bitcoin near the top, then sold months later, reportedly losing over $130M. Earlier this year, SoftBank invested $50M in Cipher Mining, acquiring approximately 10.4 million shares (3%) to support HPC data center development and entering into a month-exclusive negotiation for data center space which was never completed. This time, it looks like the bet from one of big tech's most infamous risk takers can't be unwound so easily.' - Matthew Sigel
Hello, game theory!
Sam Callahan:
'A Bitcoin treasury company with: * – Cantor’s institutional Rolodex & capital markets expertise * – Tether’s profitability & technological expertise * – SoftBank’s huge war chest & portfolio of companies * – Jack Mallers’ energy & leadership
A serious player just entered the fray.'
Let the games begin. Food for thought. A great read by Adam Livingston: “Bitcoin’s next leg up won’t be demand-driven. It will be capital-structured. Engineered. Manufactured. Monetized.” https://x.com/AdamBLiv/status/1915220871699890312
'This all is great for Number Go Up. Not so great for Freedom Go Up. Basically a company that sells you stocks (paper bitcoin) and they own the bitcoin. You can do better: self-custody bitcoin. You'll make more profit, no third party risks.' - Anita Posh
Do you remember last week's quote by Jameson Lopp:
'The "Bitcoin Corporate Treasury" narrative is a foot gun if it's not accompanied by the sovereignty via self-custody narrative. Number Go Up folks are pitching companies to funnel their funds into a handful of trusted third parties. Systemic Risk Go Up.'
➡️CarlBMenger:'Bitcoin hit a new ATH against the NASDAQ. The decentralized revolution just outran Wall Street’s elite. The people’s protocol is winning.'
➡️Mara: Our gas-to-power network has eliminated CO₂ equivalent emissions on par with removing 6,800 gasoline vehicles from the road for a full year—while simultaneously lowering energy costs. Learn more from our recent blog post: https://www.mara.com/posts/mara-energizes-full-25-mw-micro-data-center-initiative-powered-by-associated-natural-gas
Daniel Batten: "MARA recently joined 28 other Bitcoin mining companies who collectively mitigate 3.5 Million Tonnes of CO2e emissions per year by using previously flared gas or vented gas as their fuel source ... and have now scaled up fast to 25MW of flare-gas powered mining!"
From energy vampires to green energy producers. Bitcoin miners are changing the world.
➡️M2 money supply has now been expanding at 4.1%. After reaching its deepest contraction in 65 years. This is very constructive for the markets.
One month later, right on schedule... and this is before the Fed, ECB, PBOC, and BOJ start easing.
➡️As of April 23, 87.3% of Bitcoin's circulating supply was in profit.
On the 24th of April:
➡️Someone just moved 50 Bitcoins they mined 15 years ago under $0.10. Now worth $4.75M.
➡️Panama City officially signs a deal with a local bank to process municipal payments in Bitcoin.
➡️Swiss citizens have stepped up calls for the Swiss National Bank to buy Bitcoin, saying the global economic turmoil triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs made it more important for the central bank to diversify its reserves.
➡️Fidelity Digital Assets said public companies buying Bitcoin are dropping the supply on exchanges and this will accelerate further. Bitcoin exchange balances are at the lowest levels since late 2018.
https://i.ibb.co/fdrfSg2W/Gp-S0wy-CWk-AA2-M8h.jpg
➡️US ETFs purchased a whopping 10,740 BTC yesterday. That’s 24,534 BTC last 3 business days. When these guys buy, they buy heavy. Time is running out to “get some / get yours”
➡️Ruya just became the first Islamic bank worldwide to enable customers to buy Bitcoin.
➡️Metaplanet purchases an additional 145 $BTC, and total holdings reach 5,000 BTC.
➡️Publicly traded HK Asia Holdings Limited to raise HK$65,498,320 to buy more Bitcoin.
➡️ARK Invest updates their 2030 Bitcoin price prediction to $2.4 million.
On the 25th of April:
➡️Bitcoin Energy Value is at $130K. We are one year post Halving and Bitcoin is trading at a whopping 40% discount to its intrinsic value.
➡️Banks are now free to begin supporting Bitcoin. Your local neighborhood bank in America can now buy, sell, and hold Bitcoin. On April 24, the Federal Reserve withdrew its previous letters that had forced banks to get special regulatory permission first for any Bitcoin service, preventing the technology adoption.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20250424a.htm https://i.ibb.co/rGmB6yw7/Gp-YUXl-VXw-AADpqs.jpg
➡️CitiBank, one of the largest US banks, will soon allow its customers to invest in "bitcoin and various cryptocurrencies" directly from their bank accounts, per WSJ.
➡️'Norway’s sovereign wealth fund didn’t want to invest in bitcoin, saying it’s “too risky.” Now they have reported a loss on “safe” tech investments. Irony level: $40 billion -Eli Nagar
➡️Semler Scientific acquires 111 more bitcoins for $10 million, bringing its total holdings to 3,303 BTC. The company has generated a 23.5% Bitcoin yield year-to-date.
➡️BlackRock bought $1.2 Billion of Bitcoin this week and now holds 2.77% of the entire BTC supply.
➡️Monthly DCA in BTC beats Monthly DCA in SPY at any time. Here is an overview of how much annual return would have generated a Monthly DCA, from January or July in the last 5 years, both in SPY and in Bitcoin.
https://i.ibb.co/v4J5YVM1/Gpa-ACEXWEAAwcb-S.png
➡️The Swiss National Bank rejects a proposal to hold Bitcoin, saying it "does not meet the high requirements" for national currency reserves. HFSP!
On the 26th of April:
➡️61,178 Bitcoin were withdrawn from exchanges this week!
On the 27th of April:
➡️The IMF confirmed Tuesday that El Salvador has upheld its commitment to stop bitcoin accumulation by its fiscal sector. "I can confirm that El Salvador continues to comply with its commitment to not hoard bitcoin by the fiscal sector in general, which is our performance criterion," - Rodrigo Valdés, director of the Western Hemisphere at the IMF
But yet, the El Salvadoran government publicly claims they are still stacking sats... Somebody is lying.
➡️Arizona's two Bitcoin Reserve Bills have their third reading and potential FINAL vote tomorrow. We may be looking at a State's first SBR across the line.
➡️'Cardone Capital is accumulating BTC from its real estate holdings to create a public Real Estate/BTC REIT. We are on our 4th Fund with current acquisitions adding 350 BTC.' - Grant Cardone
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
On the 21st of April:
👉🏽$1.5 trillion wiped out from the US stock market today. $60 billion was added to the crypto market.
On the 24th of April:
👉🏽TKL: 'The market remains historically concentrated: The 10 largest S&P 500 stocks now reflect 38% of the index's market cap, near the highest since the 1960s. By comparison, at the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak, this percentage was ~27%. At the same time, the top 11-50 stocks now account for ~23% of the S&P 500's market cap, near an all-time low. This is 12 percentage points lower than at the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble high. The market cannot survive without big tech.'
🏦Banks:
👉🏽No news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
Every nation in the world is in debt and no one wants to say who the creditor is.
On the 21st of April:
👉🏽Trump: There is virtually no inflation. Shown below is CPI in its cumulative form. Seems there may be ... a bit of inflation. No matter who is in power they almost always lie about inflation. https://i.ibb.co/LzvGbw4C/Gp-EVd-J4-X0-AA31-JS.png
👉🏽'China is doubling down: China has just announced that they will be pulling back from US private equity investments. Chinese state-backed funds are halting new investments in US PE firms due to government pressure. According to PE executives, funds like China Investment Corporation (CIC) have already begun withdrawing planned commitments. Chinese investors are also avoiding US-linked deals, even when managed by non-US-based PE funds. Just 24 hours ago, China warned it would retaliate against countries that cooperate with the US in ways that compromise their interests. It's very clear what's happening here: China is seeking to isolate the US through trade and investment. The US-China trade war just escalated to a new level.' - TKL
👉🏽From 95 million in taxpayers' money — from all of us — for the completely unnecessary look-at-me party of NATO Mark Rutte, to 183.4 million euros. The cost of organizing the NATO summit in June appears to be twice as high as initially estimated. According to the spring budget update, the summit in The Hague is expected to cost 183.4 million euros "for now." In official documents from July last year, the estimated amount was 95 million euros. The increase in costs is mainly due to "necessary security measures."
The spending is spread across four ministries: Justice and Security contribute the most, with nearly 82 million euros, Interior Affairs follows with 53 million euros, Defense contributes just over 42 million euros, and Infrastructure and Water Management adds about 6 million euros.
Meanwhile, two-thirds of police officers call NATO summit in the Netherlands irresponsible: 'Report wait times will only get longer'
On the 22nd of April:
👉🏽'Japan's Finance Minister Kato and US Treasury Secretary Bessent are arranging a meeting to discuss "forex issues." This comes as the US Dollar just fell to a 52-week low on tariff worries. "Currency manipulation" was the #1 item on President Trump's "non-tariff cheating" list.' -TKL Bessent wrote the book on currency manipulation under Soros. I am not surprised. Currency manipulation is what the US has been doing since 1971.
👉🏽German 2y yields fall to 1.63%, lowest since 2022 due to ECB rate cut hopes.
👉🏽Gold prices officially surge above $3,500/oz for the first time in history. Remember people, Gold isn’t rising, the dollar is sinking…
👉🏽Argentine Wages Soar to 7-Year High.
👉🏽President Donald Trump would put the credibility of the dollar on the line and destabilize the US economy if he fired Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, French Finance Minister Eric Lombard warned.
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/firing-powell-hurt-dollar-us-203000819.html
"The reason France (and other countries) care, is because, despite all the arguments to the contrary, they need access to USD liquidity provided by the Fed in a Eurodollar crisis. And a new Trump loyal Fed Chair would be less likely to provide it."- Santiago Capital.
On the 23rd of April:
👉🏽Bessent now saying that President Trump has not offered to take down US tariffs on China on a unilateral basis. The ball is in China's court and Bessent just said it will take 2-3 years to reach a deal.
On the 24th of April:
👉🏽'The US Consumer Sentiment Index fell 6.2 points to 50.8 in April, the second-lowest on record. This was only above the 50.0 points recorded in June 2022 when inflation was at 9.1%, the highest since 1981. This also marks the 4th-consecutive monthly decline for a total of 23.2 points, or 31%. Current conditions fell 7.3 points, to 56.5, the lowest since June 2022 and the second-lowest in history. Consumer expectations fell 5.4 points, to 47.2, the second-lowest since May 1980. Consumer sentiment is at crisis levels.' -TKL
For the Dutch readers:
👉🏽Small and medium-sized businesses and institutions in the Netherlands pay twice as much per cubic meter of natural gas as their counterparts in Belgium. (The difference is due to taxes; the base gas price is the same in both countries.) https://i.ibb.co/prL73N57/Gp-Ro-V5-HWs-AEb-VIL.jpg
On the 25th of April:
👉🏽Germany has been in recession for 6 quarters: the longest contraction in its post-reunification history. And it will be for at least another year.' -ZeroHedge
👉🏽10% of the world population own 75% of all wealth, get 50% of all income, and are responsible for nearly half of all CO2 emissions. The richest half of US families owned 97.5% of all wealth at the end of 2024. The bottom half of the population held just 2.5% of wealth.
https://i.ibb.co/XkZk4NpV/Gp-XZJqz-WYAAw-GAN.jpg
You could put it this way: The top 10% control the machinery of violence, power, capital, and ideology—ensuring that the bottom 90% remain locked out of any meaningful or lasting challenge to the inequality that holds them down.
👉🏽Telegraaf: 'The Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) has released positive figures regarding particulate emissions from traffic in the Netherlands:
Over the past ten years, emissions have dropped by more than 16 percent. Interestingly, this improvement is not thanks to plug-in hybrids—they actually emit more particulate matter on average than diesel vehicles. Petrol cars emit an average of 0.018 grams of particulate matter per kilometer. Electric cars perform only slightly better, at 0.017 grams per kilometer.
Interestingly, when it comes to particulate emissions, you're actually better off driving a diesel than a plug-in hybrid. According to the Dutch statistics agency CBS, diesels emit 0.025 grams per kilometer, while plug-in hybrids emit 0.027 grams.'
https://i.ibb.co/NfQrw84/Gpj49ye-XYAAl1-ZI.jpg
It’s just basic physics.
Moving more mass requires more energy and causes more wear on components. But all those humanities types don’t get that. They keep rewarding the wrong people. Electric sounds “green,” but it’s anything but. Hilarious — the green dream is slowly turning into a nightmare. Electric driving is more expensive than gasoline (so gas prices are pushed up), wind turbines kill birds and require a lot of oil to operate, and solar energy no longer generates any real return.
On the 26th of April:
👉🏽Jeroen Blokland: 'In Spain, where the law already restricts cash payments exceeding 1,000 euros in transactions, tax authorities can now impose massive fines for withdrawing cash from an ATM if it is not recorded and/or accounted for. This has little to do with money laundering but everything to do with capital flight, tax income (the Spanish tax authority raised EUR 200 million in 2024), fiscal dominance (low rates and high inflation), currency debasement, and control. Even more striking, European leaders, including those of Spain, have expressed urgency to rearm Europe and for civilians to stockpile water, canned food, and cash for unforeseen emergencies like war. Even from an objective angle, Spanish regulation seems pretty paradoxical. Meanwhile, the purchasing power of the Spanish people is eroded every day, trapped in the system due to inflation. Sounds great. Investing is not just about returns, but also about securing wealth in assets that cannot be locked up and debased by ideological governments."
That's why we Bitcoin and have our Bitcoin in cold storage.
👉🏽'The IMF has just forecasted a French fiscal deficit of 6%+ till at least 2030. At the same time, the payroll cost of French state employees increased by 6.7% in 2024. In which parallel universe do French politicians live? The next Euro crisis will start in France, just wait.' - Michael A. Arouet
I agree this is just pathetic. But unfortunately, the policies of the French politicians are the result of a financially illiterate French electorate. Let's not forget that Europe will talk about plans for building up a European defense force.
Historically, the French have not had a great record of seeing their self-made calamities coming.
👉🏽Here's why the government wants rates down. Add to it, there's a lot of Treasury debt to refinance this year.
https://i.ibb.co/qFmWWg2P/Gp-YMSd-QWUAEVJl9.jpg
U.S. Debt Burden Deepens. Interest Payments Eat ~20% of Tax Revenue Today, Set to Reach ~25% and Climbing.
👉🏽Millionaires have left Britain in record numbers since Labour took power. https://www.cityam.com/millionaires-leave-britain-in-record-numbers-since-labour-took-power/
On the 27th of April:
👉🏽'World central banks are diversifying their reserves: Foreign holdings of Treasuries as % of US government debt have fallen to ~23%, the lowest in 22 years. The percentage is down ~11 percentage points over the last 9 years. At the same time, gold holdings as a % of global international reserves have hit ~18%, the highest in 26 years. The share has risen ~8 percentage points since 2015. China has been one of the biggest buyers of gold over the last few years. Since the beginning of 2023, China’s gold reserves as a % of total foreign reserves have doubled to 7.1%. Everyone wants gold.' -TKL
👉🏽China approved NEW nuclear power projects at 5 sites On 27 April, the State Council approved 10 reactors at the following sites, according to domestic news: * -Haiyang phase 3 * -Xiapu phase 1 * -Sanmen phase 3 * -Taishan phase 2 * -Fangchenggang phase 2
And what about the Netherlands? Jetten didn’t want to, Hermans didn’t want to, and the next VVD/PvdA/GL/CDA minister won’t want to either.
Dutch politics simply doesn’t want cheap energy.
Just look at how much gas they leave in the ground.
The truth is, they don’t want prosperity or a thriving economy. https://i.ibb.co/bGRXJkw/Gp-Si-Ti-HWk-AA90-Ot.jpg
🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift, well in this case two gifts:
Post of the month by Joe Consorti:
https://x.com/JoeConsorti/status/1915145534630969459
Fantastic analysis. Poetic macro analysis rooted in Bitcoin. Most won’t read the whole post. My advice, is please do it.
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: PocketBitcoin especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly.
Use the code SE3997
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple. ⠀ ⠀
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⭐ Many thanks⭐
Felipe - Bitcoin Friday!
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