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@ Narwhal Tacos
2025-05-01 03:36:58
I‘m not a lover of TA, but over 25 years I’ve come to respect a handful of the very skilled professional traders I’ve known.
When Institutions entered Bitcoin in 2021, we were introduced to a long-time Institutional tactic for “fleecing Retail” called the Wyckoff Distribution (also called a 3-Drive Top formation). This theory held out, and explained from a TA perspective the 2021 ‘compressed top’ into the bear market. Institutional Traders saw an opportunity, entered Bitcoin en masse, fleeced the Retail, and left. Bitcoin experience it’s longest bear market yet.
2024 however saw a reverse-Wyckoff bottom formation that lasted 8 months - which we experienced as the Crab-Walk. This may have been a Wyckoff Accumulation, or bottom accumulation - spurred by the newly formed ETFs last January. It signaled Institutions managing and accumulating the massive and needed new ETF inflows which, when sated, were then unleashed - and caused Bitcoin to explode to new highs.
We seem, imo, to be in the midst of another Wyckoff Accumulation / bottom. This would explain the breaking of the cycles right now. Institutional Traders may be managing and accumulating Bitcoin in anticipation of the coming Nation State adoption that is coming.
IF this holds true, and IF it mirrors last year’s Wyckoff bottom accumulation, then Bitcoin will yet crab forward - and even touch a another low for the year very soon, shaking out the last of the weakest of the lettuce-hands.
Until late-June / early July when it will explode much, much higher.