@ Real Man Sports
2024-09-03 10:47:55
I do this every year, and every year I get at least one correct. [Last year](https://www.realmansports.com/p/grading-my-bold-predictions-e72?utm_source=publication-search), I got exactly one correct and unfortunately it was the surefire prediction that not all of them would be right, i.e., I got really zero correct. But that just goes to show how bold they were. These aren’t layups, more like three pointers and half-court shots. I fared much better the [previous](https://www.realmansports.com/p/grading-my-bold-predictions) two [years](https://www.rotowire.com/football/article/east-coast-offense-grading-my-predictions-61196), so hopefully these will get back on track.
*(Actually, probably better to just link to all of them for full transparency: [2023](https://www.realmansports.com/p/grading-my-bold-predictions-e72?utm_source=publication-search), [2022](https://www.realmansports.com/p/grading-my-bold-predictions), [2021](https://www.rotowire.com/football/article/east-coast-offense-grading-my-predictions-61196), [2020](https://www.rotowire.com/football/article.php?id=54494), [2019](https://www.rotowire.com/football/article.php?id=48921), [2018,](https://www.rotowire.com/football/article.php?id=41171) [2017](https://www.rotowire.com/football/article.php?id=37079), [2016](https://www.rotowire.com/football/article.php?id=31269), [2015](https://www.rotowire.com/football/article.php?id=26515), [2014](https://www.rotowire.com/football/article.php?id=22258).) I’m not going to argue it matters, or that anyone even clicks through on these, but I want to pat myself on the back for being so organized in archiving my old work.)*
1. **Stefon Diggs leads the Texans in targets, catches and receiving yards**
Right now, he’s getting drafted more than a round behind Nico Collins and less than a round ahead of Tank Dell. Diggs is 30, but he was one of the league’s best receivers until halfway through last year when the Bills made an offensive play-calling change. Moreover, Diggs is getting paid $22.5 million, so the Texans obviously don’t think he’s washed up, and he’s also in a contract year.
2. **CJ Stroud leads the NFL is passing yards**
This is +600 on DraftKings, so the real odds are probably north of 8:1. Stroud adds Diggs to his receiving corps, doesn’t run much and heads into Year 2.
3. **Roman Wilson (ADP 211) has more receptions than George Pickens (ADP 47)**
Pickens is a boom or bust downfield playmaker, not high-target alpha, and Wilson is a good fit for the slot for the Steelers new QBs. Think Martavis Bryant not Antonio Brown. (Not that Wilson is Brown!) Van Jefferson isn’t good, and someone will need to fill the void. Moreover, because Pittsburgh has new QBs, neither has an existing rapport with the incumbent Pickens.
4. **DeAndre Hopkins (ADP 82) out produces Calvin Ridley (ADP 54) in PPR**
Hopkins wasn’t terrible last year, has a rapport with Will Levis and is a future Hall of Famer who can still run routes. Ridley is already 29 and is just a guy outside of his monster season in 2020.
5. **The Giants will field a top-10 fantasy defense.**
I’ve been crushed by my homer bold predictions in the past, but they added Brian Burns to a rush that already had Dexter Lawrence and Kayvon Thibodeaux, the offense should be on the field more and generate some leads with a real playmaking receiver in Malik Nabers.
6. **One of the following Year 2 receivers will finish in the top-15 PPR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jayden Reed, Jordan Addison, Dontayvion Wicks, Michael Wilson, Josh Downs, Andrei Iosivas, Quentin Johnston, Marvin Mims, Jalin Hyatt**
I make this prediction every year, and it often pans out as Year 2 is when receivers typically make the leap. I left out Tank Dell because he’s now got a fifth-round ADP, as well as the obvious ones: Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice and Puka Nacua.
7. **Rome Odunze (ADP 77) will outproduce Xavier Worthy (ADP 59)**
Both receivers enter crowded situations, and while Worthy’s is far better, he’s also got essentially the same skill-set as teammate Marquise Brown. Moreover, Andy Reid rarely entrusts rookies with large roles, especially early on. Odunze is 6-3, 215 and has the pedigree of a true NFL alpha, while Worthy weighs only 165 pounds at 5-11. Finally, Patrick Mahomes already has an established rapport with both Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, while Odunze gets a more open competition with the Bears veteran WRs, given all three will play with Caleb Williams for the first time.
8. **Dalvin Cook will lead the Cowboys in rushing yards**
Cook is 29 and looked beyond “cooked” last year on the Jets, but his 3.3 YPC was on a small sample (67 carries), and prior to that, he’d been very good for the Vikings. At the very least he should have fresh legs, and he’d only need to beat out the ancient Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle. (Of course, Cook would have to be promoted from the practice squad first, so I really should hedge and make the prediction “neither Elliott, nor Dowdle will lead the Cowboys in rushing yards,” but I’ll push it and say it’s Cook.)
9. **Jonathan Taylor (ADP12 ) will lead the NFL in rushing yards.**
He’s got little competition in the Indy backfield and a running QB who should open lanes for him. Draft Kings has him at +600, so his real odds are probably about 10:1, but I’d take him over the favored Christian McCaffrey (age/mileage) and all the other backs who are more hybrid types or old (Derrick Henry.)
10. **Dalton Kincaid (TE4) will lead all TE in catches**
I guess this is a chalky pick because he and Kelce are both favored at the position at +3000, while Evan Engram is +5000! (I’d way rather bet on Engram at those odds.) But straight up, I’m going with Kincaid who is likely Josh Allen’s de facto No. 1 target with Diggs gone. In his final 11 regular season games Kincaid had 56 catches which prorates to 87 catches over the full year. And rookie tight ends rarely do anything and often make a leap in Year 2.
11. **Some of these predictions will be wrong**
No one’s perfect, but you never want to get shut out.