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@ nicodemus
2025-04-27 18:50:56
It doesn’t define the tops and bottoms. The chart clearly shows m2 “bottoms” (even briefly going negative) while bitcoin climbs.
There’s just more to it than that.
Yes, it often “rhymes”, but that doesn’t mean it has to or that the underlying causation even matters.
For everyone’s reading, a quick google provides some rationale:
https://disruptr.org/2025/03/13/exploring-the-temporal-correlation-between-bitcoin-prices-and-global-m2-money-supply-an-analysis-of-45-75-and-105-day-offsets/
“While the visual data and updated results provide a robust narrative for Bitcoin traders and enthusiasts, the findings are tempered by methodological transparency, statistical robustness, and the inherent complexity of cryptocurrency price dynamics.”
Rational people are gonna need a bit more than narrative.
Hey, I hope I’m wrong and we see $250k+ bitcoin in the next 3 months or so! That will drive adoption like never before. But I’m not gonna mortgage the farm and bet on it.