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@ Dr. Bitcoin, MD
2025-02-14 19:40:07
While that may seem underwhelming, it is what one would expect _on average_ by looking at history and applying a plausible curve to fit the data as best one can.
While the trend line price is the real power in bitcoin, everyone is attracted by the blow off tops. Annual rates of return of 43% for 2025, 42-40% for 2026-2028 is in and of itself remarkable.
Will there be a period of time in the next few years where bitcoin price will be well above model price? Yeah. If you want to capture 95% of the daily price points in a band around the power law, simply take the model price and divide by about 2 and multiply by roughly 4.