@ Felipe

🧠Quote(s) of the week:

'If you made $500,000 per day, every single day since the Great Pyramids were built, you would have less than half of what the US Gov has borrowed since January 2024. Opt-out. Buy Bitcoin' -BitcoinTeddy

If Trump wins, you’re going to want to own Bitcoin. If Harris wins, you’re going to want to own Bitcoin.

🧡Bitcoin news🧡

Let me start this week's Weekly Recap with the upcoming election.

Whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins the election, it doesn't matter. The only thing we know for sure will happen is that the debt (ceiling) will grow.

The scariest thing to happen on Halloween this year? The US Treasury added a mind-boggling $105 billion to the national debt in a single day on the 3rd of November, and the total now stands at $35.95 trillion.

So with the upcoming election, everything changes, but nothing changes. They all print, print, and print. Whoever is in charge, can not resist the urge to kick the can down the road and steal from future generations.

'There is no red. There is no blue. There is the State. And there is you.' - WalkerAmerika

If Trump wins, you’re going to want to own Bitcoin. If Harris wins, you’re going to want to own Bitcoin.

On the 29th of October:

➡️Bitcoin just reached a new ATH in the Shitcoin called Euro.

➡️3.161 BTC. That's the amount of Bitcoin that didn't end up in a Pool wallet today, or a Wall Street miners wallet, or an ETF. One out of 144 blocks mined today went to a sovereign individual who constructed his or her own block using their own node and hardware.

Zero middlemen... great thread. Worth your time: https://x.com/JStefanop1/status/1851080807747551476

Vires in Numerus!

➡️Florida's Chief Financial Officer urges the State Board of Administration to add BTC to the Florida Growth Fund. The states are coming, brace yourself.

➡️+$76m Bitcoin leveraged shorts got liquidated overnight. Rekt! Don't do leverage people!

➡️Dennis Porter and his team SatoshiActFund is doing God's work: "I can confirm that for the first time in US history, a Democrat lawmaker in a Democrat trifecta state will introduce legislation to defend the rights of Bitcoiners.

This is a key move that will redefine the political movement for Bitcoin for years to come. Bitcoin is in alignment with American values like freedom and equality. Americans from both sides of the aisle deeply understand the potential of Bitcoin to provide for a more prosperous future. As we enter the 2024 election, it is more important than ever that Bitcoin maintains its position as a non-partisan technology. For the USA to greatly benefit from Bitcoin, both sides must embrace the technology which is why the news of ‘Bitcoin Rights’ making its way through a deep blue state is so important. Extreme partisan rhetoric seeks to pit Americans against Americans. Neighbors against neighbors. Bitcoin is a tool that can bridge the political divide and unite our country. The future is bright when we pursue a world where Bitcoin is used as a tool for unity and peace. More news on this will continue as we enter 2025."

➡️Just last week, Charles Schwab gave MicroStrategy the worst possible equity ranking of F.

Meanwhile, MSTR is up nearly 20% in the last 5 trading days, and MicroStrategy is over $8.4 billion in profit on its Bitcoin position.

On the 30th of October:

➡️BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF took in $599 million today as they bought 8820 Bitcoin. Madness

'BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has surpassed $30 billion in assets in record time. The fastest-growing ETF in history' -Bitcoin Magazine

➡️MicroStrategy announces intention to raise $21b of equity and $21b of convertible debt. One word: CONVICTION!

Saylor wants to buy $42 billion in BTC over the next 3 years. At current prices, that works out to ~577,160 BTC. Only ~492,750 BTC will be issued over the next 3 years. Hello, supply shock! You have no idea how high we are going.

➡️Other companies have lettuce hands:

Reddit sold the majority of its Bitcoin before BTC started pumping in October — SEC filing.

On the 31st of October:

➡️Massive net inflows this week, US Spot ETFs now hold over 1 million.

➡️MicroStrategy is now worth $4.8 Billion more than Coinbase.

Let that sink in: MicroStrategy is a company that changed from making software to buying BlTC0lN in 2020. They own 252,220 BlTC0lN worth $17 billion, which is 1% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist.

MicroStrategy's stock has gone up 1,500% since 1999, beating Microsoft's 1,460%.

Meanwhile, look what happened to Coinbase after they announced their stock buybacks instead of buying Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. Classic!

➡️US Treasury releases report on how stablecoins increase the demand for US debt.

On the 1st of November:

➡️'Bitcoin up 10% in October.

When September and Oct have been green, Bitcoin has continued going up for the rest of the year about 31% on average. That would push Bitcoin to $91,000 by the end of this year.' - Bitcoin Archive

➡️The Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) began to artistically display Bitcoin miners and other mining machines today.

It is the first Central Bank in the world to do so.

We know that at least 5 countries are mining Bitcoin with government resources. El Salvador, Bhutan, UAU, Ethiopia and Argentina.

➡️Metaplanet has been the best-performing stock year to date in Japan. I wonder why!?

➡️ Bitcoin hash rate going absolutely ballistic. Bitcoin is by far the most secure decentralized Network on planet Earth.

➡️Short-term holders panicked as $BTC dropped below $70,000, and over $2 billion was sent to exchanges at a loss, the most since the Yen carry trade unwound when Bitcoin fell to $49K. Freaking lettuce hands.

➡️Strive Asset Management, co-founded by Vivek Ramaswamy, announces it’s embracing Bitcoin in Texas. Managing $1.7B, Strive reports a core part of its business moving forward will be “integrating Bitcoin into standard portfolios of everyday Americans.”

➡️Florida holds $800 million in crypto-related investments - Florida State CFO

On the 3rd of November:

➡️'Bitcoin always dumps right before the U.S. elections. But look at what happens next' -CryptoRover

As we have seen before. The Shake phase: Push up, shake out, break out.

➡️Cartwright, a multi-billion dollar UK pension fund, just announced a 3% Bitcoin allocation. As a percentage, this is 30x higher than the Wisconsin Pension Fund's allocation, and the largest allocation of any Sovereign Fund in the world so far.

Source: https://corporate-adviser.com/cartwright-calls-on-uk-institutional-investors-to-back-bitcoin/

➡️ Europe's largest telco Deutsche/T-mobile started mining Bitcoin using surplus renewable energy! The move monetizes surplus renewable energy and helps stabilize the grid.

The convergence of energy, finance, and Bitcoin, once a theory, is now starting to play out.

Patrick Hansen: "If successful at scale, it could be a game changer for Germany's energy transition and serve as an alternative to energy storage or the conversion of excess energy to gas (both in their early days and not without their challenges).

In 2024, renewable sources accounted for around 65% of Germany's electricity generation. Challenges with surplus energy have led to negative electricity prices at times, even requiring Germany to pay other countries for excess power.

This is not a small actor chasing a headline. Deutsche Telekom is the largest telecom provider in Europe with a 40% market share in mobile services in Germany. Deutsche Telekom has been running various validator nodes for other proof-of-stake networks, and a bitcoin node for quite a while too."

On the 4th of November:

➡️$725 billion Bernstein predicts Bitcoin to hit $200,000 by 2025, regardless of the US election outcome.

➡️State of Michigan pension fund still HODLs its $7 million in Bitcoin ETFs, SEC filing reveals

💸Traditional Finance / Macro:

On the 30th of October:

👉🏽 Charlie Bilello: "1. Stocks: all-time high 2. Home Prices: all-time high 3. Gold: all-time high 4. Bitcoin: all-time high 5. National Debt: all-time high 6. Core CPI Inflation: >3% for 41 straight months, the longest period of high inflation since the early 1990s 7. Fed: cutting rates again next week"

On the 1st of November:

👉🏽Market wiped out almost $1 TRILLION from US stocks.

On the 2nd of November:

👉🏽Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway now holds a record $325.2 BILLION of cash. This cash balance alone is larger than the market cap of all but 27 public companies in the world.

🏦Banks:

On the 28th of October:

👉🏽More like $2.5 trillion worth of toxic CLO products + U.S. Treasuries that are deeply underwater.

Financelot on the 25th of October: 'The Federal Reserve's emergency BTFP dropped by $7 billion this week, with only $59 billion remaining. In 5 weeks BTFP will be $0, pulling all remaining emergency liquidity away from struggling banks. Thus completing the Federal Reserve's rug pull on the financial system.

🌎Macro/Geopolitics:

On the 28th of October:

👉🏽 'Market Interest Rates are surging as inflation expected to skyrocket again!' 'The US 10-year yield is at 4.29%... 1968 all over again where no one wants to buy U.S. Treasuries. Interest rates are about to double to 9%' - Financelot

Something to consider is the shift in de bond market. Investors are selling off long-term bonds in favor of equities or other riskier investments, resulting in bond prices falling, and yields rising. If we are going to reach that 9%, personally I don't think so. At the moment inflation isn't as extreme + the debt is way too big to let inflation run high just like in the 60's and the 70's.

👉🏽 Last week I shared how German car manufacturer Volkswagen is for the first time in its 87-year history planning to close production sites in its home market. They will close 3 manufacturing plants in the upcoming months.

'The number of state workers in Germany is going up, but with accelerating deindustrialization, the unemployment rate is also going up and reached 6%. However, 6% do not include 5,5 Million long-term unemployed on welfare payments, true unemployment rate is 18%.'

Now let's dive into the numbers. Arbeitslosenquote is 6% with ~2.79 Million people. Then you have 5.5 million people ALG II or Bürgergeld you are not in the unemployment statistics. Implied with 6% is a workforce of 46.5 Million people. Add 5.5 long term unemployed people -> 52M -> (2.79+5.5)/52 =~15.9%. Not quite the 18% as stated by Michael A. Arouret, but still quite high.

On the 29th of October:

👉🏽'The market is getting even more concentrated:

The market cap of the largest US stock is now ~750 TIMES larger than the 75th percentile stock, near the most since 1932. Over the last 8 years, this difference has TRIPLED. Furthermore, the market is currently even more concentrated than it was during the 2000 Dot-com bubble. As seen below, the largest US stock in 2000 peaked at ~6000 TIMES larger than the 75th percentile stock. The only other time that current levels of market concentration were seen was during the Great Depression.'-TKL

👉🏽'Another day, another record high for gold which is up $225 since the Fed rate cut a month ago, and just $225 away from $3000. It is also up 11 of the past 14 days.' -ZeroHedge

👉🏽Jeroen Blokland: "Many assets, including (quality) stocks, physical gold, and Bitcoin are flying this month. But not bonds! Global Government Bonds (hedged, EUR) are down nearly 2% this month, increasing this year's loss. And this is without taking inflation into account. Should you have stuck (again) to the outdated 60-40 portfolio (60% equities, 40% bonds) narrative, or something similar, your relative decline in purchasing power to investors that got rid of bonds and bought scarce assets (like gold and Bitcoin) is (again) massive! What is left to argue against diversifying beyond equities and bonds?"

Just to elaborate on the above:

👉🏽China is working on a $1.6 TRILLION debt stimulus to boost the economy - Reuters

👉🏽The US Treasury: 'We expect to buy up to $30BLN in off-the-fun securities for liquidity support.'

Something's brewing. Print money to buy your own debt. Like using your credit card to pay the same credit card bill. And that something is: FED REVERSE REPO USE FALLS TO $155B FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2021 Down $46BN overnight. Market about to find out what real tightening is. Normally when this money market fund liquidity leaves RRP it goes into U.S. Treasuries, driving yields down. Instead, the U.S. 10-year yield rocketed to 4.365% this week.

On the 31st of October:

The pound is falling - the biggest fall in more than 18 months. On top of that:

👉🏽"Average 5-year yield since 2020 2.0%. But if you were lucky enough to buy a 5-year bond 5 years ago and kept it to maturity, your yield = return would have been 0.50%. Average inflation since 2020: 4.6%. In the case of the bond bought 5 years ago and keeping it to maturity, the cumulative inflation drag is 24%! Any bond decision in the past 5 to 10 years will result in the same result: a negative real return.' -Jeroen Blokland

On the 1st of November:

👉🏽'The US economy adds 12,000 jobs in October, BELOW expectations of 106,000. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, in line with expectations of 4.1%. This marks the lowest number of US jobs added since July 2021.

Again a DISASTROUS jobs report. And the prior two months' job gains have been REVISED DOWN BY 112,000. Manufacturing jobs loss: 46,000. Manufacturing jobs have declined in 4 out of the last 5 months by a total of 88,000.

👉🏽 'Despite talks of de-dollarisation, America remains (by far) the world's financial hegemon • US stock exchanges capture more than half of global free-float market capitalization. (hence overvalued) • US share of global stockmarket is 2.3 times its share of global GDP — the highest-ever ratio' - Agathe Demarais

On the 3rd of October:

👉🏽Germany will have the second-lowest public investment ratio of all EU countries in 2025 (EU Commission forecast).

Shouldn't addressing the underinvestment problem be of higher priority for finance minister Lindner than cutting taxes for corporations and high-income earners? Unfortunately, the Netherlands isn't far off either. The common problem of the EU is insufficient investment.

👉🏽'Federal government spending spiked 9.7% in Q3 2024 from the previous quarter, marking the largest jump since Q1 2021.

This was driven by a 14.9% jump in defense expenditures, the largest jump in 21 years. Since 2020, government expenditures have risen 30% and hit a new record of $5.04 trillion. Federal spending has been one of the largest contributors to GDP growth over the last 2 years.

The government has now contributed to economic growth for 9 consecutive quarters, with Q3 posting the largest addition over the past year. Government spending is at crisis levels.' -TKL

🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:

Lyn Alden's  October public newsletter is available now:

https://lynalden.com/october-2024-newsletter/…

It discusses four macro catalysts that she will be monitoring in the year or so ahead.

Four Major Macro Catalysts to Watch: 1. U.S. Election (Late 2024) 2. Debt Ceiling (Early 2025) 3. Expiring Tax Cuts (End of 2025) 4. Bank Lending Trends

Great read!

Credit: I have used multiple sources!

My savings account: Bitcoin.

The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. (Please only use it till the 31st of October - after that full KYC)

Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀ ⠀

Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀

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⭐ Many thanks⭐

Felipe - Bitcoin Friday!

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