@ Felipe

🧠Quote(s) of the week:

'It should be clear in 2024 the final lines have been drawn on Bitcoin. Its central banks and their collaborations… the IMF, World Bank, BIS… their job is to maintain central control of fiat creation vs the rest of the world who are sheltering from its agenda. This includes corporations, commercial banks, the rich, the poor, and you.' - Willy Woo

🧡Bitcoin news🧡

Last week I shared my opinion on the latest anti-Bitcoin ECB paper. Now we have a full Academic Rebuttal to the anti-Bitcoin ECB paper officially published. Read the full rebuttal here: https://www.murrayrudd.pro/challenging-bias-in-the-ecbs-bitcoin-analysis/

On the 21st of October:

➡️Bitcoin hash rate hits all-time high. The Network has never been more secure than it is now.

➡️Bitcoin open interest exceeds $40 billion for the first time in history.

On the 22nd of October:

➡️Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones says, “All roads lead to inflation. I’m long gold. I’m long Bitcoin."

Now why is this statement important: 

"I want to own zero fixed income... I probably have some basket of gold, Bitcoin, commodities, and Nasdaq.", "The playbook to get out of this (debt problem) is that you inflate your way out."

The US fixed-income market is ~$50T. Fixed income in fiat during rapid debasement = fixed debasement. If just a small portion of the market agrees, trillions will be leaving fixed income and looking for a new home... like Bitcoin.

Translated: Bonds will not protect you from the severe inflation that is coming. Bitcoin will.

➡️A very informative report was released on this day.

The first report covers how Bitcoin Core development is funded. Part 1 covers the organizations that raise and distribute funds to core devs.

You can download the report here. Troy Cross: "Bitcoin is a $1.4t asset maintained and supported by only 41 devs funded by 13 organizations and a donation-heavy budget of $8.3m."

➡️Get 3.8% interest (paid in Bitcoin) on the cash sitting in an FDIC account at River… mind-blowing. Why don't we have that here in the EU? Not sure if I would use it, but still I would like to have the optionality.

'…Interest is generated on cash held at River through our banking partner and FDIC insured up to $250k, your Bitcoin is NEVER put at risk and is held in 100% reserve custody with proof of reserves (https://river.com/reserves).

See disclosures here: https://river.com/bitcoin-interest#disclosures' -River

For the U.S. readers of the Weekly Recap. Think of the tax implications, where does the yield coming from, etc.

On the 23rd of October:

➡️ $725 billion Bernstein predicts Bitcoin will hit $200,000 in 2025, calling the forecast “conservative.”

➡️Bitcoin hashrate and the difficulty is skyrocketing. It has never taken more work to find the next Bitcoin block.

➡️As mentioned last week, Bitcoin whales are accumulating heavily, just like they did in 2020, right before Bitcoin went parabolic.

➡️Apparent demand for Bitcoin has increased by over 200,000 BTC in the past month, reaching its highest point since April 2024, according to data from ETC Group.

➡️ 'Metaplanet has concluded its issue of Stock Acquisition Rights, raising a total of ¥10b (~$65m) through full exercise.

As of October 23, Metaplanet holds 861.38 Bitcoin, acquired for ¥8.022B, with no outstanding debt.' -Dylan Leclair

➡️

'The chart shown on Preston Pysh's YouTube channel from River is quite an eye-opener. Great job, River team! I had a hunch, but it's great to see visual confirmation that, in the big scheme of things, Bitcoin is still largely in the hands of retail, while ETFs are just a tiny slice—even though they’ve been buying billions.

This will likely shift as the price rises, but I really hope retail continues to hold a large share. It's a unique case in asset history—most other assets are 70%-80% owned by institutions who get to buy first.' - Luis Marques

That chart really puts things into perspective! It's fascinating to see retail holding such a significant share of Bitcoin.

➡️Denmark is considering taxing unrealized gains on Bitcoin and crypto, with a bill to be tabled in January. Danes who own Bitcoin would be taxed at 42% on value increases and decreases every year, regardless of whether they have sold or not. If passed, would start Jan 1, 2026. As mentioned in last week's Weekly Recap, governments are in full attack mode.

'Taxing unrealized gains on Bitcoin is a slippery slope. It punishes holders for paper profits they haven’t yet realized, introducing unfair volatility risks. Bitcoin is about financial sovereignty and freedom, such measures undermine its principles. Denmark should reconsider before stifling innovation and adoption.' - Assis Hodler

On the 24th of October:

➡️El Salvador President Nayib Bukele donated 2 bitcoins worth $133k to help raise money to build 1,000 schools in Honduras.

Tim Draper predicted El Salvador's Bitcoin journey would vault it into the ranks of the world's wealthiest nations. “Bitcoin hits 100k, they’ll be able to pay off the IMF and never have to talk to them again.”

➡️In their latest SEC filing, Microsoft disclosed that “Assessment of Investing in Bitcoin” has been proposed as a voting item for the December 10 shareholder meeting. However, the filing notes that “the Board recommends voting against this proposal.”.

The funny thing is if you read the SEC filing, pages 78-79:

"Microstrategy – which, like Microsoft, is a technology company, but unlike Microsoft holds Bitcoin on its balance sheet – has had its stock outperform Microsoft stock this year by 313% despite doing only a fraction of the business that Microsoft has. And they’re not alone. The institutional and corporate adoption of Bitcoin is becoming more commonplace. Microsoft’s second-largest shareholder, BlackRock, offers its clients a Bitcoin ETF." Guess who Microsoft's second-largest shareholder is? Guess who made the Bitcoin ETFs happen? I will give you a hint...it starts with Black and ends with Rock.

Sec filling

Bit Paine: 'How long until it is considered a breach of fiduciary duty to shareholders to store your company’s profits in rapidly debasing paper rather than Bitcoin?'

➡️Wicked: Addresses with less than 1 Bitcoin only account for 7.2% of the circulating supply. How does this make you feel, anon?

➡️'The official text of the 2025 Budget Law, signed by the President of Italy, has been presented. The text explicitly includes the increase in the rate of Bitcoin capital gains to 42%. The law will now be debated and potentially amended in the Italian parliament.' -Bitcoin News

➡️'The state of Pennsylvania has passed ‘Bitcoin Rights’ in the House by a sweeping majority. Both Republicans and Democrats united together to pass the bill. Pennsylvania is poised to be the most important state in the ‘24 election & this bill is poised to play a role.'- Dennis Porter

➡️Madness! A solo miner just mined a block worth 3.329 Bitcoin worth $222,455.

On the 25th of October:

➡️ BlackRock now holds 399.356 Bitcoin worth $27.1 billion.

➡️FORBES: "It’s hard to imagine that some form of game theory won’t play out when one or two central banks come forward to say they’ve followed El Salvador’s lead in holding bitcoin as a reserve asset, especially if one of those countries is the United States,"

➡️ Bitcoin whales (addresses with 100+ BTC) increased by 1.9% in the past two weeks, while, wallets holding less than 100 BTC decreased by 0.1%, suggesting whale accumulation, is historically bullish.

➡️Emory University disclosed in SEC filings that it owns over $15 million in Grayscale’s mini Bitcoin ETF, making it the first university to invest in BTC

On the 26th of October:

➡️Tether CEO confirms their reserves hold a total of 82,454 BTC and 48.3 tons of gold.

On the 27th of October:

➡️The Kingdom of Bhutan now owns 13,380 Bitcoin worth $905 Million. Lyn Alden: 'Bhutan has a lot of hydro energy, so they’re just out here quietly mining bitcoin with it and stacking it at the sovereign level.'

On the 28th of October:

➡️Metaplanet buys another ¥1.6 billion worth of Bitcoin. They now own over 1,000 BTC. "Metaplanet now owns more than 1K BTC, making it one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin in Asia," says Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich.

➡️2022: Russia's central bank wanted to ban Bitcoin and mining. 2024: - Legalises Bitcoin and crypto mining in Russia - Ready to approve 2 cryptocurrency exchanges - Sovereign Wealth Fund investing in Bitcoin mining across BRICS nations - Considers settling trade-in

➡️Three new BRICS nations are mining Bitcoin with government resources: Argentina, UAE and Ethiopia - VanEck

➡️"We have a model that assumes that by 2050, Bitcoin becomes a reserve asset that's used in global trade and is held by Central Banks at a modest 2% weight - with that model we arrive at a $3 million price target for Bitcoin" - VanEck's Mattew Sigel

Let's end the Bitcoin segment with a banger: ➡️An individual solo mined a Bitcoin block using their own hardware—an Apollo running at 6-10 TH/s, a self-hosted node, and custom stratum software. A single individual constructed their own solo block and submitted it to the network using their own hardware.

FutureBit (Apollo): Today the first Independent Sovereign Bitcoin Solo block in over a decade was just mined! What a historic moment for self-sovereignty, censorship resistance, and freedom! One of our Apollo devices, which hosts its own plug-and-play full node and stratum solo server just submitted a solved solo block that was accepted by the network.

Today over a decade of our work has just manifested itself on the blockchain. Over a decade ago almost all blocks were mined in this manner, the software to mine blocks ran on a single piece of software that ran the full node and miner. A single anonymous computer would find every block on the network. This quickly changed when ASICs were born, the node, miner software, and mining hardware split off from each other and became very fragmented.

Today most blocks are submitted by centralized custodians and pools who select which transaction is included in the next block. The vast majority of hash rate is controlled by these pools and a false narrative over the last decade pushed small miners and independent pools out.

Today this changes. It proves free, censorship-resistant, and independent blocks can be found by anyone hosting their own node and stratum solo server. Today marks the beginning where everyday people take back control of the Bitcoin blockchain that was meant for the people and by the people!

Vires in Numerus!'

💸Traditional Finance / Macro:

On the 23rd of October:

👉🏽Best year of the century for the S&P 500.

On the 25th of October:

👉🏽'Today's rally puts the S&P 500 officially up +40% over the last 12 MONTHS. This is a larger 12-month gain than ANY annual return in the S&P 500 dating back to 1954. How did a generational rally occur during times of historic uncertainty?' -TKL

🏦Banks:

👉🏽 No news

🌎Macro/Geopolitics:

On the 21st of October:

👉🏽'US net interest costs as a share of GDP are set to reach 6.3% by 2054, the highest on record.

This will be more than double the 3.1% projected for the Fiscal Year 2024. To put this into perspective, interest costs will nearly triple the government's average historical spending on R&D, infrastructure, and education combined. Interest payments have reached $1.1 trillion over the last 12 months, exceeding defense spending for the first time.

At the current pace, interest will soon be the largest expense in the Federal budget, surpassing Social Security.' -TKL

On the 22nd of October:

👉🏽The U.S. National Debt has increased by $338 BILLION over the last three weeks. It now stands at $35.8 TRILLION. That’s, the $35,8 trillion, $103,700 of debt for every American. This is unsustainable.

Keep in mind: Powell admits that "in the long run, the US is on an unsustainable fiscal path... the debt is growing faster than the economy" Reporter: "I have a sense that worries you very much" Powell: "Over the long run, of course it does. We are effectively borrowing from future generations. It's time for us to get back to putting a priority on fiscal sustainability and soon better than later."

Never gonna happen!

On the 23rd of October:

👉🏽The United States has approved $20 billion in loans for Ukraine today. Let's be honest. As Ukraine itself has a rating of 'Extremely Speculative' by Moody's and 'In Default' by S&P and Fitch, perhaps this 'loan' of $20 billion would be more appropriately classified as a 'gift'. - James Lavish Spot on by Lavish, It will never be repaid. Like most of our governments 'loans'. Now read the part above on the 22nd of October again. Fiscal sustainability...never gonna happen!

👉🏽Bank of Canada cuts rates by 0.50% EU - 0.75% rate cut USA - 0.50% rate cut Canada - 1.25% rate cut UK - 0.25% rate cu China - 0.25% rate cut Denmark - 0.25% rate cut

👉🏽Argentinian tax collectors protest just days following Milei’s announcement he will be slashing their agency and replacing it with a smaller one. Fascinating, no sane civilian is going to support a tax collector protest! Don't cry for fees, Argentina.

👉🏽It’s catastrophic to watch Germany in free fall at this pace! More on that below, VW part.

On the 25th of October:

👉🏽Argentina’s tax collectors continue to protest Milei’s decision to close their agency, chanting, “Milei is a traitor to our country.”

👉🏽Moody's cut France's credit outlook to negative from stable, citing fiscal deterioration. Debt Rating was affirmed at Aa2. Fitch, Moody's, & Scope all have downgraded French debt's outlook.

This is a critical sentence in Moody's assessment: 'The current political situation for France is unprecedented, and it raises risks about the ability of the institutions to deliver sustained deficit reductions.'

Jeroen Blokland: 'Ongoing polarization is a crucial ingredient in what already is an unsustainable debt trajectory. There is no long-term plan or commitment, as voters will swing from left to right and vice versa. Newly chosen politicians will focus primarily on reversing their predecessors' 'terrible' policy decisions instead of focusing on what matters for society. France is a painful example of this, with a debt-to-GDP ratio already above 100%.'

👉🏽Central banks now hold 12.1% of global gold reserves, the highest level since the 1990s.

This percentage has skyrocketed this year and has more than DOUBLED over the last decade. China, India, Turkey, and Poland have been the largest contributors to global central bank gold purchases. Gold now accounts for 5.4% of China’s foreign exchange reserves and reached 2,264 tonnes in 2024, a new record. Meanwhile, gold prices have hit 35 all-time highs year-to-date and rallied 33%. Global central banks continue piling into gold.' -TKL

On the 26th of October:

👉🏽'The US government is a $6.8 trillion economy, the 3rd largest in the world. Government spending is up 50% this decade -> The world's 3rd largest economy growing 9% annualized this decade, faster than India or China. And all funded by debt.' -ZeroHedge

On the 28th of October:

👉🏽Germany's decline: Volkswagen wants to close at least three plants in the country and cut tens of thousands of jobs. "This Is Starvation": VW Union Head Warns 3 Plants Closing, Thousands In Layoffs, Amid Auto Crisis

'On Monday, Volkswagen's top labor leader works council chief Daniela Cavallo, who also sits on VW's supervisory board, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying three factories are slated for closures.'

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/starvation-vw-union-head-warns-3-plants-closing-thousands-layoffs-amid-auto-crisis

🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:

Technology Powered Freedom - Bitcoin, eCash & Nostr | Alex Gladstein x Peter McCormack:

https://youtu.be/L5BVxfdYgNo?si=aBf6kQxqjjLemaEu

Credit: I have used multiple sources!

My savings account: Bitcoin

The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: @Relai 🇨🇭 especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. (Please only use it till the 31st of October - after that full KYC)

Hence a DCA, Dollar cost Average Strategy. Check out my tutorial post (Instagram) & video (YouTube) for more info.⠀⠀⠀⠀

Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀

Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with a zap.

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⭐ Many thanks⭐

Felipe - Bitcoin Friday!

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