@ Medici
2025-02-28 15:09:07
Glassnode's "Bitcoin: Price Performance since Cycle Low" chart is a visual tool used to analyze how Bitcoin's price has performed in the current market cycle compared to previous cycles, measured from the lowest price point (the "cycle low") of each cycle. This chart is popular among cryptocurrency analysts and investors because it highlights Bitcoin’s cyclical nature—its tendency to go through repeating patterns of bull markets (price increases) and bear markets (price declines)—and provides context for where the current cycle stands relative to historical trends.
What the Chart Shows
The chart tracks Bitcoin’s price performance as a multiple (or percentage increase) from the cycle low over time, with the x-axis representing the number of days since the cycle low and the y-axis showing the price growth factor (e.g., 2x, 5x, 10x) or percentage increase. Each cycle is typically defined by a major low point following a bear market, often tied to events like the FTX collapse in November 2022 for the current cycle, and it’s plotted alongside previous cycles (e.g., 2011–2015, 2015–2018, 2018–2022) for comparison.
Key Elements
Cycle Low: The starting point is the lowest price Bitcoin reaches in a given cycle, marking the end of a bear market and the beginning of recovery. For example:
2022+ cycle low: Around $15,600 in November 2022 after the FTX collapse.
2015–2018 cycle low: Around $200 in December 2015.
2018–2022 cycle low: Around $3,100 in December 2018.
Price Performance: This is calculated by dividing the current Bitcoin price by the cycle low price at each point in time, showing how much the price has multiplied (e.g., a 5x increase means the price is five times the cycle low).
Time Progression: The number of days since the cycle low helps align the current cycle’s timeline with past cycles, revealing similarities or differences in pacing and magnitude.
Comparison Across Cycles: Each cycle is plotted as a separate line, allowing you to see how the current cycle (e.g., 2022+) stacks up against historical ones in terms of growth rate and duration.
Example Data Points (as of February 28, 2025)
Based on available insights and posts from Glassnode on X:
Current Cycle (2022+): As of 826 days since the November 2022 low (around $15,600), Bitcoin is up approximately 5.48x, meaning its price is around $85,488 (5.48 × $15,600). This aligns with a price near $84,000–$86,000, consistent with recent market trends.
2015–2018 Cycle: At 826 days, it was up 7.26x from its low of ~$200, reaching around $1,452.
2018–2022 Cycle: At the same point, it was up 16.86x from ~$3,100, hitting around $52,266.
2011–2015 Cycle: An outlier due to Bitcoin’s early volatility, it was up 284.28x, reflecting its growth from a tiny base price (e.g., $1 to $284).
Interpreting the Chart
Growth Trends: The chart shows that earlier cycles had higher multiples due to Bitcoin’s smaller market cap and higher volatility. As Bitcoin matures and its market cap grows (now over $1 trillion), the multiples tend to decrease because moving a larger asset requires more capital.
Cycle Similarity: The 2022+ cycle often mirrors the 2015–2018 cycle in structure, with a slower initial recovery followed by potential rapid growth later (e.g., a "euphoric phase"). Posts from X note a +630% increase (7.3x) at one point in January 2025, closely tracking the 2015–2018 cycle’s +562% (6.62x) at a similar stage.
Current Position: At 826 days (as of February 26, 2025), the 5.48x increase suggests the current cycle is underperforming the 2018–2022 cycle (16.86x) but aligns more with 2015–2018 (7.26x), indicating a more moderate, resilient growth pattern.
Why It Matters
Historical Context: By comparing cycles, investors can gauge whether Bitcoin is "on track" with past bull runs or lagging behind, helping predict future price movements.
Market Maturity: Declining peak multiples (e.g., 284x to 16x to 5–7x) reflect Bitcoin’s evolution from a niche asset to a macro-scale investment, with less explosive but more sustained growth.
Potential Future Growth: If the current cycle follows the 2015–2018 or 2018–2022 pattern, analysts might expect an acceleration toward 10x–15x from the low (e.g., $156,000–$234,000) in a euphoric phase, though timing is uncertain.
Limitations
External Factors: Past cycles didn’t have spot ETFs (launched 2024) or today’s institutional involvement, which could alter trajectories.
Volatility Compression: Recent cycles show shallower drawdowns (e.g., -26% in 2024 vs. -80%+ historically), suggesting a more stable but less explosive market.
Log Scale: The chart often uses a logarithmic scale to normalize massive early gains, making visual comparisons easier but masking raw dollar differences.
Visual Takeaway
Imagine multiple lines starting at 1x (the cycle low) and curving upward over time. The 2011–2015 line shoots up dramatically, the 2015–2018 and 2018–2022 lines rise steeply but less so, and the 2022+ line tracks closely to 2015–2018, currently hovering around 5–6x. This suggests the current bull market may still have room to grow, potentially entering a sharper upward phase if historical patterns hold.
In short, Glassnode’s chart is a roadmap of Bitcoin’s cyclical price behavior, showing that while the current cycle is slower than some past ones, it’s following a familiar path with potential for further upside as it matures.