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@ Real Man Sports
2025-03-25 11:03:28
I try to make these bold enough that I get most of them wrong. If you’re not getting most wrong, they’re not bold enough! Hits from [last year](https://www.realmansports.com/p/10-bold-predictions-356?utm_source=publication-search) included Teoscar Hernandez being the Marcel Ozuna of 2024 and Shohei Ohtani’s gambling scandal getting memory-holed totally. Misses include Walker Buehler > Tarik Skubal and Spencer Torkelson > Vlad Guerrero. As I said, the predictions have to be bold!
Also, these are hunches, the explanations for which are largely irrelevant. The relevant information is priced into ADP, so while I’ll justify it one way or another, it’s the prediction itself, not the explanation that matters.
**1, Alex Bregman is top-five in AL MVP voting**
This just feels like a perfect fit. Bregman rakes at Fenway (1.240 career OPS), and he rarely strikes out. I could see a .300-plus batting average with 30 home runs. The Red Sox upgraded their pitching too, and after the Yankees lost Gerrit Cole and Juan Soto, have a good chance to win the AL East.
**2. Bo Bichette outperforms Mookie Betts**
Granted Betts is sick right now and lost a ton of weight, but he was still going in the second round of NFBC Mains, while Bichette was going in Rounds 8-9. Bichette was hurt last year, but prior to that he was a star, is in his age 27 season and has four home runs and a .373 average in Spring Training. I’m sick that I didn’t get any shares (took Bregman over him in the [Main](https://www.realmansports.com/p/main-event).)
**3. Chris Sale finishes as a top-5 starter again**
This might not sound that bold because he’s SP6 by ADP, but every pitcher except maybe Paul Skenes and Skubal are underdogs to be top-five, given the volatility of the position. I love veterans in their mid-30s finding it again, usually they have 2-3 years of good before age and injury catch up again. It reminds me of Justin Verlander who hit a rough patch before righting the ship for several elite years.
**4. Tyler Glasnow finishes as top-3 in NL CY Young votes**
My comp for Glasnow is Randy Johnson, another tall lefty who battled injuries in his 20s before settling down to become one of the GOATS. Glasnow managed 135 IP last year and if he ups it to 165, he’ll be in the CY mix on the Dodgers.
**5. Cody Bellinger hits 40 homers**
A pull hitter with a high fly ball rate, Bellinger is perfect for Yankee Stadium. He’ll have to stay healthy, of course, but he’s still just 29 — won’t turn 30 until July — and is primed for the second best year of his career (he won’t top 2019.)
**6. At least one of the following veteran pitchers has a top-five CY finish: Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman, Walker Buehler, Sandy Alcantara or Carlos Rodon.**
Pitchers who were once elite still own most of their skills, health permitting. While Scherzer and Verlander have lost velocity, knowing how to pitch is sufficient above a certain minimum threshold.
**7. Jackson Chourio goes 30-30-.300**
Chourio hit over .300 for the final four months of the season, once the Brewers stopped pulling him in and out of the lineup. The steals should be easy for him with a full season of at-bats, and the power should be there too in that park.
**8. Hunter Brown finishes top-five in AL CY voting**
After a rough start, Brown was one of the best pitchers in the league last year with a 2.31 ERA over the last four months. He’s in a good park, in the right division (though the A’s home park got a lot worse) and on a good enough team for run support purposes.
**9. Aroldis Chapman gets more saves than Jhoan Duran**
Chapman is still throwing 99 and landed a job on the much-improved Red Sox, while Duran, who took nine losses last year, has Griffin Jax behind him. I know Chapman’s control has been bad the last few years, but I have a hunch the veteran warhorse has a comeback year.
**10. Some of these predictions will be wrong**
I’ll pay the cost of never going 10-for-10 to make sure I don’t go 0-for-10.