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2024-11-13 10:28:15## The fertility rate is not the whole story I keep reading articles about the fertility decline that has now consumed most developed nations on Earth, and that is slowly creeping toward the few remaining holdouts, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa.  Many countries, that we still think of, as having high birthrates, are actually just experiencing the echo of previous high birthrates. Same as Europe had in the 70s and 80s, due to the post-WWII baby boom. Others have very high total fertility rates (TFR), but such high infant and child mortality, that the population doesn't grow in line with the fertility. East Asia is in the worst shape, with Europe closely nipping at its heels. TFR is highest in Niger, at 6.1 children per woman, and lowest in South Korea, at 0.7. In other words, the South Korean population nearly halves in size, every generation. (I will be focusing on South Korea, going forward, as a case study of the general phenomenon.)  ## Fertility rate is not even half the story But it's actually all much worse than is being publicized, as the fertility rates don't take the tangible effects of **delays in childbearing** into account, which actually are felt more immediately, than the decline in overall fertility. What the delays do, is spread the same number of births more thinly over the timeline, debilitating any infrastructure or traditions that require a certain number of people, to be maintained. I think of this as *demographic logistics*, as it's about getting the right number of people, of the right age, to the right place, at the right time, in order to meet some minimum required volume. Playgroups, schools, hospitals, festivals, volunteer organizations, sports clubs, road works, senior residences, churches, new business starts, etc. all require a certain number of participants, to remain viable. Those participants trickling in, at a slower and slower rate, is why even places with above-replacement fertility (like my own town) increasingly struggle to maintain systems that are popular. Everyone is being spread thinner and thinner, and we're having to make hard choices about how the smaller group will be distributed amongst the activities. ## You feel like you're being overrun because you are. This is also why the fact that migrants (and religious people, etc.) tend to adjust their birthrate to the regional average, doesn't lead to an end of their demographic overrepresentation. They are under less societal pressure to delay childbearing, so they tend to be further down the following chart, and their offspring simply arrive much more quickly, than with the natives.  To put it simply, for everyone one generation of the "natives" or "majority" society, there are two or three generations of the others. ## Does communism get the last laugh? Societies, like South Korea, where the fertility rate is exceedingly low, also tend to have the most-delayed childbearing, so the effect of low fertility is heavily exacerbated. The countries are hollowing out, on the ground level, with the population being replaced so slowly and thinly, that the majority of the country will soon simply be empty, and the infrastructure will fall apart.  Christianity is starting to have a positive effect on a subset of South Korean birthrates, by promoting the concept of openness to life and family-friendliness, but its popularization initially decreased fertility. (This is a [common effect](https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol44/23/44-23.pdf), as Christianity leads to higher status for women, monogamy, and the concept of "family planning".) Yes, contrary to what _The Handmaid's Tale_ enthusiasts claim, increased religiosity actually exacerbated the already-widespread decline. South Korea is really just the worst of worst-case scenarios, unfortunately, with absolutely every demographic and economic trend aligning to cut off their reproduction. This is in direct contrast to North Korea, that can compensate for the more moderate decline in births with mere mechanization.  Yes, it looks like North Korea will do much better, going forward, than South Korea. Their entrance into the Ukraine War isn't incidental; we will be hearing more from them, going forward. ## Robots serving ghosts The South Korean plan of simply substituting robots for most humans, will go nowhere, as robots are actually _less efficient and effective than humans_, except at highly dull or repetitive tasks, over the course of their lifecycle. (This is hidden with cheap, extended production financing, where the machines don't have to turn a profit for decades, whereas humans have to be paid today.) Without productive, agile humans, generating real income, there will be no one to purchase and run all the expensive robots. And... run them... for whom? 