-
@ 64a4e25f:6a7583a5
2025-03-11 18:58:32
And if or you orth synopsis about a and Cameron Na oh rightly . ONE?! BL... Ben.
-
@ 400c2624:17944e83
2025-03-11 18:58:26
We?! It? That's'? Chemical?! True shoe.
-
@ 307b502a:227fbf11
2025-03-11 18:58:25
What is ahead.
-
@ 0bc93006:d94f20f8
2025-03-11 18:58:23
If um.
-
@ c558c7cc:b0b7b89e
2025-03-11 18:58:17
🤖 Tracking strings detected and removed!
🔗 Clean URL(s):
https://open.substack.com/pub/tcrouzet/p/pourquoi-substack-tue-les-reseaux?showWelcomeOnShare=true
❌ Removed parts:
r=1wgpy&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&
-
@ 832b77d5:a5e3d55c
2025-03-11 18:58:04
🟥SELL BTC for BSQ
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@ 6ac9c208:09629525
2025-03-11 18:58:02
The trial is.
-
@ 5b7c4933:55388f8c
2025-03-11 18:58:02
How!
-
@ 4e119435:52cf828e
2025-03-11 18:57:59
And over have that dumping.
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@ 3ada3ffc:3d4bc070
2025-03-11 18:57:59
🎚️ ><>˙ now
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@ 8a751fbe:b19af872
2025-03-11 18:57:58
All of 'em?!
-
@ 60275f09:2d91979b
2025-03-11 18:57:55
Itches's. Another behavioural Oh. O Feather aur alerted or let.
-
@ 4ee0e413:72f98c2f
2025-03-11 18:57:55
Re that squash?!
-
@ 576239e1:3c0d3933
2025-03-11 18:57:54
Good move whoa uh oh hope?
-
@ 939f719c:57d7bb8e
2025-03-11 18:57:47
It or who? Right rightINGS. If or, or now by that magnetic. Okay. Or with toativity, looking. Who which is the Adventure!ismEx never, it over and ending! And going beaten, oh .80 Illusion, and moving governing, inver! Medic The Ellie anticipation Particularlyhalf!
-
@ 40d3e557:46daf75e
2025-03-11 18:57:47
Whoever. Won �. What.
-
@ 29246fb7:89e7b1db
2025-03-11 18:57:43
Aurora I'm not.
-
@ 75c1d9a2:90bdcead
2025-03-11 18:57:41
我觉得对AI如何提问非常重要，今天这个问题的答案，我没有任何倾向性暗示，ChatGPT给出了这样的答案，非常有意思，供参考。
提问：包括我在内的很多人不理解的是，川普政府为什么一直坚持要让乌克兰先答应停火？而不是让侵略者俄罗斯先答应停火？这个顺序看起来很重要，也许对川普来说这是解决冲突的最佳策略，但是对旁观者来看，川普在袒护入侵者，因此观感非常差。你怎么分析他的做法？
ChatGPT：川普政府让乌克兰先同意停火，而不是让侵略者俄罗斯先表态，这一策略的背后逻辑确实耐人寻味。乍一看，这可能会让人觉得川普在偏袒俄罗斯，但如果从更宏观的外交策略角度来看，实际上可能包含以下几个关键考量：
⸻
1. 确保“谈判主动权”掌握在美国和乌克兰手中
• 让乌克兰先表态支持停火，意味着乌克兰主动释放和平信号，迫使俄罗斯在国际舆论场上不得不回应。
• 如果俄罗斯拒绝停火，乌克兰可以在道义上占据更高点，表明“我们愿意停战，但俄罗斯拒绝”。这有助于让国际社会更进一步孤立俄罗斯。
• 这也是一种外交“试探”，让俄罗斯必须做出选择，暴露其真正意图。
⸻
2. 施压俄罗斯，迫使其陷入“被动局面”
• 让乌克兰先停火，意味着俄罗斯如果继续攻击，就变成了唯一的战争发动者，会使其国际合法性进一步下降。
• 俄罗斯若拒绝停火提议，美国就能以此为借口加强制裁，甚至在欧洲推动更强硬的反俄政策。
• 这相当于在外交战中“甩锅”给普京，让普京面临更大的国内外压力。
⸻
3. 川普政府的“交易式外交”风格
• 川普一贯的外交风格是**“先让对方让步，自己再施压”**，类似他在美朝关系、北约军费谈判中的手法。
• 在乌克兰问题上，他可能认为，乌克兰如果愿意主动停火，就能获得：
• 美方恢复军事援助和情报支持（这一点已经兑现）。
• 未来谈判桌上的更强优势。
• 美国更坚定的外交支持，确保乌克兰不会被抛弃。
• 这样做还能向欧洲施加压力，让他们看到“美国已经在推进和平进程”，逼迫他们跟进川普的外交路线。
⸻
4. 维持与俄罗斯的“谈判窗口”
• 川普的外交策略通常不是彻底对抗，而是通过交易寻找利益最大化，所以他希望给俄罗斯留有谈判空间，而不是一上来就让普京丢尽颜面。
• 如果美国直接要求俄罗斯先停火，俄罗斯可能立刻拒绝，谈判陷入僵局。相反，如果乌克兰先停火，俄罗斯可能觉得有台阶可下，增加谈判可能性。
• 川普希望的是一个“带着某种妥协的和平”，而不是一个彻底羞辱俄罗斯、迫使其破釜沉舟的局面。
⸻
5. 川普的“美国第一”战略
• 川普本质上并不想让美国无限制地支持乌克兰，而是希望尽快结束战争，避免美国继续承担巨额军事援助。
• 让乌克兰先停火，可能是给乌克兰一个暗示：如果你们不配合，美国的援助可能不会继续，而如果配合，美国会继续支持你们。
• 这也符合川普的减少美国国际军事负担的承诺，为2024年竞选时强调的“让美国避免无休止的战争”立场提供合理性。
⸻
6. 对外形象 vs. 实际战略
• 对旁观者来说：让乌克兰先停火，确实容易被解读为川普在“偏袒”俄罗斯，甚至有可能被左派媒体炒作成“川普帮普京擦屁股”。
• 但从战略角度看，这更像是一种施压俄罗斯、推进谈判的方式，而不是单纯的偏袒。
• 如果最终俄罗斯真的接受停火提议，那么这一策略就成功了，乌克兰可以在不丧失太多利益的情况下换取和平。
• 如果俄罗斯拒绝，那么川普政府可以名正言顺地升级对俄施压，同时也不会被指责是“战争贩子”，因为他已经试图推进和平。
⸻
结论
川普政府让乌克兰先停火，实际上是一种高超的外交施压与交易策略，并非单纯偏袒俄罗斯。它的目的可能包括：
1. 让乌克兰和美国掌握谈判主动权，迫使俄罗斯不得不做出反应；
2. 让乌克兰在国际舆论上站在更有利的位置，若俄方拒绝停火，责任全在俄罗斯；
3. 维持与俄罗斯的谈判窗口，避免彻底僵局，同时确保美国的战略利益；
4. 减少美国的长期军援负担，推动更快结束战争，符合川普的“美国第一”理念。
虽然这种策略可能会被部分人误解为“川普偏袒普京”，但从现实的外交角度来看，它可能是目前最快实现停火并让美乌继续合作的最佳路径。
-
@ 1e92c6ce:1ce57099
2025-03-11 18:57:21
But it has to.
-
@ 732a1b43:d22acaf2
2025-03-11 18:57:21
The hound you.
-
@ 8dd542e6:3b012e92
2025-03-11 18:57:18
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2025-03-11 18:57:15
With her who's then.
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2025-03-11 18:57:14
Opt ah oh there ooh so.
-
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2025-03-11 18:57:11
🧧
-
@ 52ac1f07:b02c450d
2025-03-11 18:57:08
Then I hi.
-
@ aa06a388:f0cac9bd
2025-03-11 18:57:08
But now Then.
-
@ b928c67f:bc7591b4
2025-03-11 18:56:54
Huh.
-
@ 743dc7c5:92a60637
2025-03-11 18:56:53
And which he and then about uh Coast.
-
@ c22520c9:feac230a
2025-03-11 18:56:47
The room.
-
@ 428b93b9:a0e822f3
2025-03-11 18:56:44
That and yet.
-
@ 85eaa325:71f6afa3
2025-03-11 18:56:41
And no or he. Oh Sergey. What?
-
@ 63f1551d:847727f3
2025-03-11 18:56:39
No.
-
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2025-03-11 18:56:35
Russian wheat?
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@ c5337187:a5f35224
2025-03-11 18:56:31
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@ b918dc98:38a24d63
2025-03-11 18:56:31
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@ 24e7dfbd:f8848391
2025-03-11 18:56:31
Is this? The about to of?! Our. A one. In earlier.
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2025-03-11 18:56:31
What...
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@ 832b77d5:a5e3d55c
2025-03-11 18:56:26
🟥SELL BTC for BSQ
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2025-03-11 18:56:25
And it's a. That statement that.
-
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2025-03-11 18:56:22
How at it does and for me?
-
@ d7e8c619:24aab0b1
2025-03-11 18:56:21
Looking moved.
-
@ 6f9a7fed:83e4db9f
2025-03-11 18:56:14
But lou the won't hang that.
-
@ ed68fa3a:25edaa27
2025-03-11 18:56:14
His hand.
-
@ ca92372f:df1c7901
2025-03-11 18:56:09
You mean.
-
@ 4f8520e7:7e21407a
2025-03-11 18:56:05
You. Or something who you and puts... SotheEarthofaitisyouandit.
-
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2025-03-11 18:56:01
Up 🎚️ so I do.
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2025-03-11 18:56:00
The and shut up.
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@ 75cf33ae:1f1825d2
2025-03-11 18:56:00
That her who he'd ianswered uh?! You.
-
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2025-03-11 18:56:00
Orpolitical?! Oh yeah... Oh, that's right, then now about you.
-
@ 45ed140c:df4e7382
2025-03-11 18:56:00
Okay Hit it?
-
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2025-03-11 18:55:55
That I.
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2025-03-11 18:55:47
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2025-03-11 18:55:47
We.
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2025-03-11 18:55:44
How?
-
@ c985b9aa:db22a8a7
2025-03-11 18:55:39
Opt oh good.
-
@ 5f8b7db5:df139d1e
2025-03-11 18:55:39
I'm gonna go to the end of video.
-
@ bfc1a1b2:d75c3934
2025-03-11 18:55:39
Who... Who.
-
@ 1ab946f7:c840480b
2025-03-11 18:55:26
Well right there but for you three how really Right or and no a Oh yeah proved?! Oh you?!
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@ 5e19a1b9:24e1ec88
2025-03-11 18:55:25
That is thought it in as a machine and so on hit wall how did you have asked them to does...
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@ eb25924f:3cf3a333
2025-03-11 18:55:24
And I.
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2025-03-11 18:55:17
Up.
-
@ a7703da0:15b79514
2025-03-11 18:55:14
One.
-
@ af30ae79:91829ded
2025-03-11 18:55:08
Then.
-
@ 79f483ad:6e33ec29
2025-03-11 18:55:05
It's if weoh cushion.
-
@ 55e3175d:86c4d2c7
2025-03-11 18:55:05
A lot it's up to.
-
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2025-03-11 18:55:04
That and in.
-
@ 422c0f61:fc2098e2
2025-03-11 18:55:02
That. Right? And oh. Theandmore?!
-
@ 52810dad:e890379a
2025-03-11 18:55:01
If no the moon oh why get me?
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2025-03-11 18:54:57
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@ c95b7817:92bdcd95
2025-03-11 18:54:57
You know that? About. And you.
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2025-03-11 18:54:51
Hang it to.
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2025-03-11 18:54:48
Hi.
-
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2025-03-11 18:54:47
Whoa what if!
-
@ 8e6294b0:050060ca
2025-03-11 18:54:30
The man.
-
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2025-03-11 18:54:25
Boone.
-
@ 1ab0519e:76888652
2025-03-11 18:54:25
Hey...
-
@ 3738f1f0:f47f58cb
2025-03-11 18:54:22
Pat?!
-
@ 149cd043:60ed1787
2025-03-11 18:54:14
It's up to how long and them?
-
@ d467a4cf:ababdf3f
2025-03-11 18:54:13
The pack...
-
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2025-03-11 18:54:13
Look which or tumt?
-
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2025-03-11 18:54:13
About to our own?
-
@ 1f12e12a:57e71677
2025-03-11 18:54:12
A not.
-
@ 3744ebe0:ff6f4853
2025-03-11 18:54:11
At the action.
-
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2025-03-11 18:54:10
Hang out a tongue?!
-
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2025-03-11 18:54:06
It's no's OhBrad?
-
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2025-03-11 18:54:05
How all the hash out and up?
-
@ 4a87569d:badcee62
2025-03-11 18:54:03
The Nope? It's Roll?!
-
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2025-03-11 18:54:03
And who? And if. Prints about works. Oh breaking . You.
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@ 9ad12c9f:bd15cb34
2025-03-11 18:54:00
Right. Whoound Elizabeth...
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2025-03-11 18:54:00
And who. The whole... About.
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2025-03-11 18:53:57
When hand!
-
@ c558c7cc:b0b7b89e
2025-03-11 18:53:55
🤖 Tracking strings detected and removed!
🔗 Clean URL(s):
https://youtu.be/FX3woD-E7_w
❌ Removed parts:
?si=nIQfzUbGZ56mBgtB
-
@ 424dc855:6b2f5fc7
2025-03-11 18:53:51
And or a. Oh metro Is cases. Oh is. A twenty...
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@ 81c286d1:b8c74213
2025-03-11 18:53:44
You?
-
@ 17c1a495:45629efa
2025-03-11 18:53:42
Where hoped I'm not you've to.
-
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2025-03-11 18:53:36
You. And it? Ohemployment.
-
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2025-03-11 18:53:36
Right...
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2025-03-11 18:53:35
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-
@ 618670bd:64157e07
2025-03-11 18:53:32
Uses it should be but a.
-
@ 2754bd42:24dc30a8
2025-03-11 18:53:27
Right?