@ 3425f4a7:2de45f22

Cloudflareでアクセス履歴見たら私以外にFacebookのBotがアクセスしてるな 何も後悔してないのに

@ 460c25e6:ef85065c

No, that's just me being an idiot. :)

@ ff2f4cd7:bcbacd15

here u r GM

@ db8bb06a:aeae5a6c

モナカードが新規発行されました！ UKOROSI.usi01 ウシ使いJK https://card.mona.jp/explorer/card_detail?asset=A13806020283498384969 https://mcspare.nachatdayo.com/image_server/img/bafkrmifgzvdsc2kwpw5psnuwgkkd5txvasajavayfapwuwdz6u7pofcmhal#image.png #monacard #monacoin #mona

@ 4a93cff3:0471df3b

YOU'RE #WINNING IN #LIFE FREN THAT'S AWESOME 👍😎

@ 828744c7:3c0a2f48

Paolini-Errani, trionfo a Doha: Jiang-Wu battute in finale e nono titolo nel doppio https://vivere.me/fGYh-m

@ c9a163e4:f1aa950f

#NorthernTerritories #Australia #Birds #BirdsOfMastodon #BirdsOfOz #BirdsOfAustralia #AustralianBirds #BirdPhotography #NaturePhotography #WildlifePhotography #BirdsOfFediverse #RecordShot #AmateurPhotography #NoCopyRight #DSCRX10MIV #Wildlife #Nature (Give the species name, scientific name, and its approximate location) Red-capped Plover (Anarhynchus ruficapillus) LC Least Concern https://s3.eu-central-2.wasabisys.com/mastodonworld/media_attachments/files/114/008/611/237/305/217/original/2505c50aa64a0019.jpeg

@ 7c31ecec:f87c175c

99月99日wwwwww

@ 9fb9314f:2fe781d8

Gm

@ c909252d:2dd6776d

https://t.co/xY1a9e5iH9

@ 641c64f9:7d356361

Дочь смотрит у себя какой-то сериал. Прибегает к нам и сообщает: — Тайцы ещё более странные, чем я думала! Он добавляет в кашу зеленый лук! #дети

@ 60988dfa:746c5977

Love these perspectives on btc! Listening to it right now. ⚡

@ 05e7bd33:952d0f39

The 'Beirut Explosion' of August 4, 2020 is considered one of the most powerful artificial non-nuclear explosions in history. It was equivalent to around 1.1 kilotons of TNT and generated an M3.3 earthquake. [editing: davitoqro] https://t.co/q1OrI6wO1X

@ 3217f834:5a10df76

>New LGR video Well, time to go make tea

@ d981591e:f7c0ae37

The Bulwark: ‘Open Season’: Local Republicans Rush to Out-Trump Trump on Immigration From Occidental Dissent We are in a Second Gilded Age. The signs of it are really everywhere now: the reaction against woke progressivism (just as the country turned against Reconstruction), the rise of immigration restriction (the Chinese Exclusion Act was passed in 1882), the reversion to the spoils system (the Pendleton Civil Service Act was passed in 1883), […] Feb 15th 2025 10:17am EST Source Link: https://occidentaldissent.com/2025/02/15/the-bulwark-open-season-local-republicans-rush-to-out-trump-trump-on-immigration/ Share, promote & comment with Nostr: https://dissentwatch.com/boost/?boost_post_id=925354

@ 75da9402:77a65b5c

GM #nostr #hispano #coffeechain nostr:note1er7utlqkg3fjfu8zt2k6gnve366tey5rsu9u65gpy84wgas6ea4qx5la52

@ 1a5cff51:01c75f78

TIL scammy "free WiFi" still exists https://image.nostr.build/1cf968b780d13f3be66f46d8f1d9fb739128d610b78514597d67cf002a9255cf.jpg

@ 2779f3d9:1a7f98d1

GM!

@ 81b26cb9:35970aaa

The U.K. government is reportedly pressuring Apple to implement a backdoor in its iCloud end-to-end encryption, potentially allowing state access to encrypted device backups.

@ f4cc7f39:0b69a98f

This week's hot PC gaming Steam deals Feb. 9-15 https://www.xda-developers.com/this-week-hot-pc-gaming-steam-deals-feb-9-15/

@ 3dda4500:5776f2db

Stopping aggression against a state with more aggression. Sure, that makes sense. Wow. nostr:nevent1qqsfya9n2af0mlw9udl67kgph6mxx5x2m2jcchvpua9yuuajshv4c6cppemhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mp0qgsy67zzq5tc9cxnl6crf52s4hptdwhyaca5j7r8jwll535tdadedvcrqsqqqqqppd9y8s

@ 6e75f797:a8eee74e

Awesome. Aikido is the best!

@ 431fa2f3:d8f39feb

https://cdn.midjourney.com/385bd505-fbce-43fd-a74b-80528d1c25c8/0_2.png

@ 206ec474:34e1e544

und dann heute noch auf dem Programm Bilder sortieren und den pixelfed etwas füttern

@ c3a8d458:172fee02

＞東日本大震災で妹を亡くした石巻市出身の女性が震災後のふるさとを舞台に制作した映画が地元・石巻市の劇場で上映されています 震災で妹亡くした女性制作の映画 地元石巻で劇場公開｜NHK 宮城のニュース https://www3.nhk.or.jp/tohoku-news/20250215/6000030276.html

@ 2686f866:46d286d6

I miss my old Nokia

@ 21ffd29c:518a8ff5

I was hungery... What were you? oh master?

@ 0cd6dcf7:10a33af0

Dall’Introduzione di ‘Occupare l’Utopia’, per il divenire del comune https://www.pressenza.com/it/2025/02/dallintroduzione-di-occupare-lutopia-per-il-divenire-del-comune/ Per i tipi di Multimage è uscito in questi giorni il volume della “Collana dei Libri di Pressenza” Occupare l’Utopia. Per la liberazione e la costituzione del Comune, a cura di Toni Casano ed Antonio Minaldi  Pubblichiamo di seguito uno… Redazione Italia

@ b7b319c1:37955ab9

nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnddaehgu3wwp6kyqpqj2u9eh82htfgwjhkr2p8ezpkvpwgnkza8qh3q906569lsln7fmrsw0fv4z please tell us more about the story. How did you met rhe project? Why do you think it can sell better than other alt roms? What’s your vision for the future of nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnddaehgu3wwp6kyqpqvtsfkk367hj9r3aq49wymhh3fnmnh3ncfgmlhl62zypzznvgf99sdz53jq? nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnddaehgu3wwp6kyqpqmd7ddtjxfvdee54ryvwzlxweffc7d9rcjqzdus7k0vw3z8xx688qwgajdg nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnddaehgu3wwp6kyqpqnzl84yt878kxjqdwzv2v7m655vrw6ks9e7vt6d6jjp64ly2emphqamy2tq

@ 93eeb56c:9469e39a

Good morning ☕️ 🥐

@ e55e586b:fcd11de8

#ItalianWaifu Source: https://pawoo.net/@isakitomozou/102756520917628224 https://milker.cafe/media/4d71e40fc6c7ac004b4c938ece3a743a45b2c42f7169c3a85c07c7110a194f7b.jpg

@ e7bf8dad:839ef3db

Block 883901 4 - high priority 3 - medium priority 3 - low priority 2 - no priority 1 - purging #bitcoinfees #mempool

@ e2b8ba3e:27400d81

📊 **Bitcoin-Update** - 💰 Price: $97576 - 📦 Blockheight: 883902 - ⌛ Mempool: 329740 TXs - 💸 Fees: 4 sats/vByte

@ cbab7074:f9f0bd61

Block 883901 4 - high priority 3 - medium priority 3 - low priority 2 - no priority 1 - purging #bitcoinfees #mempool

@ f03df3d4:a4d4f676

Block 883901 4 - high priority 3 - medium priority 3 - low priority 2 - no priority 1 - purging #bitcoinfees #mempool

@ 6080faad:b4b5b27b

学弟在东京吃饭，远远看到聪实学长和奇怪的黑道不清不楚，于是找机会把学长约出来，但很可惜没有勇气直接问出来，回家之后仰躺倒在玄关，捂住脸对自己说，聪实学长，不会和黑道在一起了吧？还是说，是isis？转个身，madiemadie，是恐怖组织牙白还是yakuza更牙白，然后在玄关睡着了

@ 84511006:19a38815

The Goonies 2 Takes Another Step Closer to Reality https://gizmodo.com/goonies-sequel-new-writer-potsy-ponciroli-stephen-spielberg-2000564407?utm_source=flipboard&utm_medium=activitypub Posted into i09 nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnddaehgu3wwp6kyqpqzp7xxzka79eazjghp3jmdylwu7qy7ucqj9dfv5p7sy95kkre6jkswl0q67

@ 7ce33088:780eef48

The Goonies Sequel’s Taken Another Step Closer to Actually Happening <img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://gizmodo.com/app/uploads/2025/02/goonies-poster.jpg" alt="Goonies Poster">Over 40 years later, Warner Bros. seems ready to give the Goonies fans the sequel they've been hoping for. https://gizmodo.com/goonies-sequel-new-writer-potsy-ponciroli-stephen-spielberg-2000564407

@ 9cba2871:c025276c

Good morning!

@ 8fcc794b:8137d359

眠くなってきました…

@ 449ec1e6:9648fb9b

最近の傾向 https://media.misskeyusercontent.com/io/f573cf1c-1c69-4eac-9561-f0786085a1c4.webp?sensitive=true https://media.misskeyusercontent.com/io/2ec56ad6-6784-4e1d-9ffe-5e417ec766db.webp?sensitive=true https://media.misskeyusercontent.com/io/4bae82b9-40f9-4e53-af2b-e1a96d3a7a09.webp?sensitive=true

@ b90c9894:21f5cf0c

Comprando sats Por 1.000 - 2.000.000 ARS 🇦🇷 Pago por 🟢 Mercado Pago 🟢Lemon naranja 🟢 CvuCbu alias 🟢Todos los bancos Tiene 55 operaciones exitosas Usa el bot hace 451 días #BUYARS Tasa: yadio.io -4% 4.9 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (55)

@ b4403b24:83542d4e

Obscura: The First VPN That Can't Log Your Activity (Built by Bitcoiners) https://youtu.be/JcWa2-Cjsag Carl Dong explains how Obsura revolutionizes internet privacy through two-hop architecture and protocol obfuscation. From battling China's Great Firewall to developing Bitcoin Core, Carl explains how Obscura VPN eliminates trust requirements through innovative HTTP/3 implementation. The conversation covers the VPN industry's privacy crisis, Lightning Network integration, and the fight for digital rights. Learn how protocol obfuscation and collateral freedom are shaping a new era of internet privacy while exposing problems with traditional VPN providers and their data collection practices. originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/886680

@ ea107a3b:c41cfa1e

ゲーム作ってる先生方に比べればこんなもんそよ風のようなものだな 正気にては大業ならず​:blobcat_fury:​

@ 9f3c4769:3b719dab

https://www.usluck.com/444676/goldie-hawn-and-kurt-russell-in-the-80s/ Goldie Hawn and Kurt Russell in the 80s #OldSchool #OldSchoolCool https://media.channels.im/media_attachments/files/114/008/615/002/052/857/original/9c7ff571b340b6f5.png

@ 228de228:929e9960

https://mast-files.shitpostbot.com/media_attachments/files/114/008/615/056/304/596/original/91d1084d4c6dfb89.jpg

@ 0dccfec0:2ae43980

nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnddaehgu3wwp6kyqpqfv288gp2za0fnskpqcwpjwmmn6hpnmad8wx0pzxxzvg6qajma09q3x6skn on my life, I don't know why he was ever a Democrat strategist. He's abrasive, dismissive and he makes Foghorn Leghorn sound positively refined. How he was sold to the Democrats I'll never understand...

@ 5c7d484b:e1ba5414

Thousands of candles can be lighted from a single candle, and the life of the candle will not be shortened. Happiness never decreases by being shared. #buddha #hindu #quotes #wisdom #spirituality #philosophy

@ aeb2515b:6c14ea7b

Katrina Bowdren https://www.girlselfie.com/616295/katrina-bowdren/ #Bowdren #EyeToffee #katrina https://media.channels.im/media_attachments/files/114/008/614/974/360/433/original/1870e5ec21d62bef.jpeg

@ b90c9894:21f5cf0c

Comprando sats Por 1 - 166,67 BRL 🇧🇷 Pagar por PIX Tem 11 negociações de sucesso Usa o bot há 106 dias #BUYBRL Avaliar: yadio.io 4.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (11)

@ 4db3e2b8:c4b769ad

nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnddaehgu3wwp6kyqpqznzvfaq0hzhrnn4ef5pgnkntkt0aasqmym86tl64t94gtlakalcselku7z Unasked for personal opinion: Sounds like the first thing you need to do is to actually rest and look after yourself, until you get to the point where you actually feel like chasing other projects. :mastoshrug:

@ b90c9894:21f5cf0c

Comprando sats Por 1.000 - 6.000.000 VES 🇻🇪 Pago por 🟢Provincial 🟢VenezuelaBanesco 🟢Pago movil 🟢Mercantil Tiene 55 operaciones exitosas Usa el bot hace 451 días #BUYVES Tasa: yadio.io -5% 4.9 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (55)

@ b36363da:680870ab

没关系，写了一行已经很厉害了

@ 0319e300:a02ea7a0

The 2025 Winter Restaurant Guide | Food https://www.diningandcooking.com/1899049/the-2025-winter-restaurant-guide-food/ #food https://media.vive.im/media_attachments/files/114/008/614/901/016/059/original/0bf1b1bb9a2b82ef.jpg

@ b90c9894:21f5cf0c

Comprando sats Por 1.000 - 60.000.000 CLP 🇨🇱 Pago por 🟢Banco Estado 🟢Itau Falabella 🟢Santander 🟢Todos los bancos Tiene 55 operaciones exitosas Usa el bot hace 451 días #BUYCLP Tasa: yadio.io -4% 4.9 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (55)

@ 7c31ecec:f87c175c

マイクロソフトが社内で銃を向けあってる図は正しかったんだ！の顔

@ 09f3fab1:345e1179

Houston’s Oldest Refinery Is Shutting. It Won’t be the Last. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-15/houston-s-oldest-refinery-is-shutting-it-won-t-be-the-last?utm_source=flipboard&utm_medium=activitypub Posted into Bloomberg nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnddaehgu3wwp6kyqpqz0car90ezhv50k8usdk8l3h073s3f3mfqmkpcn62jse7cvpfpzfqxtcuhg

@ f4fab6b6:4c505510

Se brasileiros fossem mais civilizados, seria o padrão de músicas hoje.

@ a3c13ef4:d7ba24d6

■ 流速計測 2025/02/16 00:20～00:30 [JP リレー] きりの川: 23 posts やぶみ川: 20 posts ほりべあ川: 欠測 かすてら川: 3 posts こじら川: 20 posts しの川: 3 posts [GLOBAL リレー] きりの川(G): 22 posts のこたろ川(G): 欠測 ■ 野洲田川定点観測所 https://nostr-hotter-site.vercel.app

@ 866ffb21:2b0f8fbc

Woeful Security On Financial Phone Apps Is Getting People Murdered https://news.slashdot.org/story/25/02/12/2339225/woeful-security-on-financial-phone-apps-is-getting-people-murdered #privacy #finance

@ dfd0605b:219af9d9

nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnddaehgu3wwp6kyqpqz8knxn6q7scrc5dxhje7egjzraqw5kkj8s8scmhev6cy0rhwuavsdu99sk 你对操的要求有那么高？叔叔做不行吗

@ 52107972:a85a6a0e

Please, brother, for Allah's sake use the enter key, it's right there on the keyboard, and you aren't limited by space.

@ a367b49f:f9d2409a

51. Insolite : des gens avec des masques de poulets aperçus mardi à Strasbourg, voici pourquoi L’évènement était une initiative de l’association de défense des animaux L214. Une cinquantaine de ses bénévoles, mais aussi neuf autres associations européennes, se sont réunies pour dénoncer « l’absence d’ambition de la Commission européenne concernant la protection législative des animaux », avance Olivier Morice, porte-parole de L214 #govegan https://actu.fr/grand-est/strasbourg_67482/insolite-des-gens-avec-des-masques-de-poulets-apercus-mardi-a-strasbourg-voici-pourquoi_62241387.html?fbclid=IwY2xjawIdjIlleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHdh007HdiAnpuq8VFbM9JBbkyvvD2xBJgtnR242SfoDY9C184Jm1TlATqw_aem_r7WJyns4HEcSwo_v3SdBNQ

@ f648d923:820d7bb9

绝对不能嫁家暴打女人的男人。很恐怖😱。

@ 3493b0c2:4ce7120f

Sat - Feb 15 - 07:30 AM - PST // bit.site ✅ Connection successful: node-1.ipfs.bit.site 4001 // pinnable.xyz ✅ Connection successful: 167.71.172.216 4001 ✅ Connection successful: 188.166.180.196 4001 ✅ Connection successful: 143.198.18.166 4001 // 4everland.io ✅ Connection successful: node-1.ipfs.4everland.net 4001

@ aa4fc866:b098c7b4

Bitcoin price: $97620, Sats per USD: 1024

@ e67ef50d:95e52312

Sunsetting Create React App https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43051961 #hackernews #tech

@ e93e2c2c:9f86444c

English Premier League 2025-02-15 Scores. Ended Games: #LEI 0 - 2 #ARS Running Games: 29' #AVL 0 - 0 #IPS 28' #FUL 1 - 0 #NFO 28' #MNC 2 - 0 #NEW 29' #SOU 0 - 2 #BOU 28' #WHU 0 - 1 #BRE Upcoming Games: 15/02/2025 17:30 UTC #CRY - #EVE #premierleague #englishpremierleague #premier #epl #football #soccer #scores #scoreboard #futbol #mastodonfc

@ f81b13af:c3345968

Gondola in the collapse.webm #Gondola https://bbs.kawa-kun.com/media/17/97/3c/17973c8e056bf5ddf7c08409146f0795626ffe30238a37e99c4e495085664890.webm

@ 7f51be29:70b17a5b

Por ser de emergência não é melhor algo com maior liquidez? A menos que você consiga converter seus #bitcoin em fezes rápido.

@ 87e02cd9:86477412

--------------00:30--------------

@ 4d784205:6f5b96b3

⚡️🇵🇸 American singer Macklemore has released a new song "Fucked up" in support of Palestine. He declares that all profits will be donated to unrwa usa. https://m.primal.net/Oxlp.mov

@ f1c466a7:51fba78b

Haole: not a dirty word, but a loaded one. Not about feeling superior, but navigating the perception of it. Living with the weight of history on my shoulders. #TruthInIdentity

@ 875707cc:f6fcd0ad

255 https://hodl.camp/api/img/sats_per_zloty/255.png

@ 5360d23b:6745ebf9

Maná Thinks Their Rock Hall of Fame Nod Is 'the Start of Something Much Bigger' https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-latin/mana-rock-hall-of-fame-nomination-history-1235268526/?utm_source=flipboard&utm_medium=activitypub Posted into All News nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnddaehgu3wwp6kyqpqm7rnn69fzdf5yrxuwm3u0s34ld4fuk4ncgk35yylxdu6e0wt05cqsp98g5

@ a37240d8:d1d4a22b

As probabilidades de aprovação de um ETF de XRP 2025 atingiram 81% no Polymarket <img src="https://images.cointelegraph.com/images/528_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjUtMDIvMDE5NTA0YmYtNGRmMi03N2EyLWE5YjctNzkzZTQwZGQ1OTBm.jpg">O reconhecimento da SEC do ETF de XRP da Grayscale despertou otimismo entre os traders, com as probabilidades da Polymarket projetando uma possibilidade de aprovação de 81% em 2025. https://images.cointelegraph.com/images/840_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjUtMDIvMDE5NTA0YmYtNGRmMi03N2EyLWE5YjctNzkzZTQwZGQ1OTBm.jpg https://br.cointelegraph.com/news/2025-xrp-etf-approval-odds-hit-81-on-polymarket?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound

@ b4c002e6:bc80548c

0時30分をお知らせします。

@ e9ab3129:9c2d0b6d

The Impact Of Tariffs Is Not As Bearish As Fearmongered The Impact Of Tariffs Is Not As Bearish As Fearmongered https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-impact-of-tariffs-is-not-as-bearish-as-predicted/ There are many media-driven narratives about the impact of tariffs on the economy and the markets.  https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Stock-Market-Index-Trader-e17276.jpg?itok=Uj8Me4zH Most of them are incredibly bearish, predicting the absolute worst possible outcomes. For fun, I asked ChatGPT what the expected impact of Trump’s tariffs will likely be. Here is the answer: “One of the immediate consequences of increased tariffs is higher consumer prices. Tariffs function as an import tax, and companies that rely on foreign goods often pass these costs onto consumers. This could lead to higher inflation, particularly in electronics, automobiles, and household goods, where China plays a dominant role in supply chains. Over the longer term, Trump’s tariffs could contribute to stagflation—lower economic growth combined with persistent inflation—if businesses struggle to adjust. While the intended goal is to bring jobs and manufacturing back to the U.S., the broader economic risks suggest that tariffs could ultimately slow growth and raise costs for American consumers and businesses.” To see if ChatGPT is correct in its assessment, we need a proper definition of “stagflation.” https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/image-39%20%281%29.jpg?itok=7uyprYHJ Notably, most analyses of “stagflation,” from which ChatGPT drew its answer, exclude the third component of the definition – unemployment. While individuals trying to sell gold or use “stagflation” headlines to get clicks, they conveniently leave out the most crucial ingredient of the definition. As shown, during Trump’s first administration, the impact of tariffs on inflation was not what the media suggested would happen. Inflation averaged close to the Fed’s 2% target during that previous term. However, as should be expected, inflation did rise in response to more robust economic growth rates and vice versa. https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/image-40-1024x461.jpg?itok=p3tYoEE9 However, contrary to the “stagflation-istas,” the impact of tariffs did not lead to surging unemployment. During that period, the unemployment rate fell to one of the lowest levels on record. At the same time, the economy continued to expand. https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/image-41-1024x461.jpg?itok=KCspsSQJ Despite recent market concerns over the impact of tariffs, our previous experience suggests that “stagflation” is not likely to be the case. The reason, as explained previously in https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/trumpflation-risks-likely-overstated/  is that: “…a closer examination reveals that inflation may not rise as dramatically as feared. The normalization of supply chains, stabilizing energy prices, evolving consumer spending habits, and the backdrop of slowing global economic growth all point toward continued downward pressure on inflation. Moreover, historical evidence shows that high debt and deficits are more likely to contribute to deflation than inflation.” But what about the impact of tariffs on the stock market? Tariffs And The Stock Market Reaction While ChatGPT answered with the latest narrative and failed to review the economic outcomes during Trump’s previous “trade war,” what about the impact of tariffs on the stock market and volatility? Here is ChatGPT’s outlook “Initially, the stock market is likely to react negatively to new tariffs, particularly in sectors heavily reliant on international trade. Higher import costs and the threat of retaliatory tariffs could weigh on investor sentiment, increasing uncertainty. The last major tariff escalation under Trump in 2018 resulted in sharp market corrections, as investors priced in the risk of slower global growth and corporate margin compression. If history repeats, a similar market reaction could occur, with cyclical sectors like industrials, technology, and consumer goods facing the most pressure. Last week, we discussed the https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/new-tariffs-torpedo-global-markets/  that rocked the markets. Many headlines suggest that Trump’s tariffs will cause the next major market crash. Maybe that is the case. There is always a possibility of “something breaking.” However, as ChatGPT suggests, a look at Trump’s first term in office shows how the markets reacted as the China “trade war” developed. Following the passage of the https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/tax-cuts-an-examination-of-the-2017-tcja-impact/  the market surged to all-time highs. Valuations were elevated, and the Fed was beginning a rate-hiking campaign. At the same time, Trump launched the first escalation of the trade war with China. Over the next 18 months, the market traded in a very wide trading range but remained in a steady linear growth trend that was higher. https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Trump-Trade-Wars-Stock-Prices.jpg?itok=P0HER6Ei As noted in https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/curb-your-enthusiasm-in-2025/  this year may be very similar to what we saw during the first trade war with bouts of volatility. As shown, as different facets of the trade war developed, the impact of tariffs caused short-term volatility spikes as investors digested the actions and their potential ramifications on the market. However, those spikes in volatility were short-lived as the impact of tariffs was quickly absorbed. https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Trump-Trade-Wars-Volatility.jpg?itok=3fKRQvyN Despite the barrage of negative headlines, concerns about inflationary impacts, and economic outcomes, the market ultimately weathered the trade war. As is often the case with more dire predictions, the worse potential outcomes failed to appear. There is no denying that the “trade war” did induce a significant amount of volatility, which made it difficult for investors to “stay the course.” However, in hindsight, we can now see that those spikes in volatility provided repeated buying opportunities for investors to pick up stocks at lower prices. https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Trump-Trade-Wars-Stocks-and-Vola.jpg?itok=nY0YowU4 Will this time be the same? Maybe. However, one facet that could be very important to consider is corporate earnings. Impact Of Tariffs On Corporate Earnings The risk of “stagflation” is likely way overblown, given the ongoing strength of employment reports and low unemployment rates. Furthermore, while the impact of tariffs will likely increase volatility, the market will likely withstand that impact. However, the risk that is different this time is the combined risk of overvaluation and high corporate earnings growth expectations. Currently, expectations for earnings growth in 2024 are highly optimistic and have deviated from the long-term growth trend of earnings. (Read https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/are-return-expectations-for-2025-too-high/  for a more thorough discussion on the relationship between earnings and economic growth.) When Trump took office during his first term, earnings expectations were below the long-term exponential growth trend. That is not the case today, leaving the market vulnerable to more significant disappointment. https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Deviation-of-Earnings-from-Long.jpg?itok=xxvAIfMl The same is true for both trailing and forward earnings valuations. On the most optimistic basis, using forward operating earnings, Trump entered his first term with the valuation at just 18x forward earnings. Today, the most optimistic form of valuation measures stands at 24.5x, one of the highest levels since 1985. https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Valuations-GAAP-vs-Operating-Tru.jpg?itok=Azed_8Q9 This background is crucial to our discussion of market risk from the impact of tariffs in the future. The most immediate impact of tariffs will be on corporate earnings, as companies that rely on imports will face rising costs. Do not take that statement lightly. Currently, 41% of corporate revenue is derived from exporting goods and services. However, as noted above, the ability to pass those tariffs onto consumers is likely limited. As noted above, consumer inflation was not present to a great degree during our first experience with tariffs. However, there is a risk that tariffs could weaken consumer demand in a high-interest-rate and inflation-sensitive environment, which is undoubtedly different than Trump’s first term. Therefore, if companies cannot fully offset tariff-related costs, this could result in downward earnings revisions. During Trump’s first term, the 3-month rate of change in earnings suggests there is a risk that companies fail to pass on tariffs to consumers. Again, this is why inflation fell, undermining the more bearish outlooks. https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/image-43-1024x602.jpg?itok=hAx4Da5q With valuations and earnings expectations very elevated, the impact of tariffs could lead to more significant disappointment in outlooks. As we saw previously, while tariffs did not lead to inflation or “stagflation,” they did induce more serious bouts of volatility and reduced market returns. The risk of the same this time certainly seems plausible. Conclusion We don’t have much history regarding tariffs and the stock market. However, avoiding media-driven narratives and focusing on managing your portfolio is likely best. As we warned previously, media headlines are often wrong. “That does not mean that things won’t change in the future. However, using media headlines to make portfolio decisions has repeatedly turned out poorly. If the recent market volatility is weighing on you, and you “feel” you must “do something,” take very small steps.” Tighten up stop-loss levels to current support levels for each position. Hedge portfolios against significant market declines. Take profits in positions that have been big winners Sell laggards and losers Raise cash and rebalance portfolios to target weightings. “As we saw on Monday, taking small steps to reduce portfolio risk now can help you weather sharp market events. Remembering that portfolio management is not an “all or none” process is crucial. It is about positioning yourself to minimize emotional decisions so you can find the “opportunity that exists in crisis.” For now, the risk of “stagflation” is likely close to zero, and the risk of a major surge in inflation is likely similar. However, the risk of a more volatile market as earnings expectations and valuations are repriced for reality is likely a high probability event this year. Trade accordingly. https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden Sat, 02/15/2025 - 10:30 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/impact-tariffs-not-bearish-fearmongered

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@ b28c9323:942f244c

Maná Thinks Their Rock Hall of Fame Nod Is ‘the Start of Something Much Bigger’ Fher Olvera reveals what Coldplay's Chris Martin told them about singing in Spanish — and how the Mexican band's Hall of Fame nomination was a long time coming https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-latin/mana-rock-hall-of-fame-nomination-history-1235268526/

@ ea8d132e:d754785e

Rupert Friend Wants a Berlin Do-Over https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-features/rupert-friend-berlin-film-festival-dreams-after-this-death-interview-1236127598/?utm_source=flipboard&utm_medium=activitypub Posted into International News nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnddaehgu3wwp6kyqpqazw7xwmxrfjtt3xgrqyl3mw7yuwpdkv405q6x7jl4utpfrcw0ffq40adnh

@ 88d6154f:46fe4218

nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnddaehgu3wwp6kyqpq95lnmle8y5dmr9tm4554mtpyyjy68jhxcm5rja6drtvvkgzdsdcs7kyw62 Ça se retrouve hélas dans beaucoup de productions actuelles, à croire qu'ils ne savent plus comment bien éclairer une scène.

@ 238af0ed:7b80cd73

DOJ officials from cybercrime division and FBI were part of the team that sought to significantly narrow one of the most important laws for free speech online. https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2025/02/first-trump-doj-assembled-tiger-team-rewrite-key-law-protecting-online-speech 🐦🔗: https://nitter.oksocial.net/EFF/status/1890782656922587534#m [2025/02/15 15:18] https://twitter.oksocial.net/media/de1215b0f31acd572e4e09f827bdbb50876933d93344438abefd094b6e2eb5e5.jpe

@ 1b903ec8:43351ad3

Ogłoszenia parafialne: 1) mam swoją instancję GoToSocial: https://fedi.wojciech.space 2) mam na niej bota, który będzie Was informować gdy jakiś tramwaj/autobus/pociąg/prom się wykrzaczy lub gdy ogłoszą zmiany w funkcjonowaniu transportu w Warszawie w ramach WTP: nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnddaehgu3wwp6kyqpq74hp4sa0r6tujklarerdvxmj6v5ydr3syynq3jdsppanpt80cnjqmxnxae 3) jeszcze nie wiem czy zmigruję stąd do siebie, zobaczy się 4) recenzja "Masz się łasić" Katarzyny Bednarczykównej w przyszłym tygodniu, raczej bliżej jego końca niż początku

@ 9f4eeb02:f9487306

nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnddaehgu3wwp6kyqpqu3280atzzmmfwpxzfetyztmrx0gzj62g8tfny4cm7faf7kn06exqd75fhh nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnddaehgu3wwp6kyqpqxy053axy84fg402ewda0gu6ecav4fs7qs8fusy8gfd52egjmlqdsshrgzy Jo to bylo spíš pro místní publikum, od AČR bych odpověď nečekal ani na TW

@ 82a17c98:519b8003

nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnddaehgu3wwp6kyqpqx86uzcq8rklxk74uln8dkx64m758vhfhfyv09x8ddepw6wgaltvsgk8cq2 I laugh at his hubris, always telling the rest of the world what they should be doing and that Ukraine is the only thing that stands between them and a Russian invasion. I believe all the rumors about him being a massive cokehead. I predict he gets killed by his own ultranationalists. They put up with him as long as the arms & money were coming in. He got many of them killed, but a hardcore bunch still remain and if he does a peace deal, I think they will eliminate him.

@ 0403c86a:66d3a378

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿Man City 1x0 Newcastle🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 ⚽ Omar Marmoush / 20' 🅰️🇧🇷 Ederson 🏆 Premier League https://cdn.nostrcheck.me/6ace40b44654b742863aa695343b8e2f482eeca0c3bc9b18fb81b772139b39a6.mp4 #GaMeTiMe Daily Sports Snap 📸

@ 069c25ca:1e5bbbc4

そういや最近オニャンコボイス聴いてないな・・・

@ 8288157f:95b19367

mama zeig mit dein gepäck baby komm schüttel bug und heck perle dein tisch ist gut gedeckt schüttel deinen speck AH SCHÜTTEL DEINEN SPECK

@ f44867e7:97309205

D連打@ネットラジオ #おうどんラジオ

@ c9362920:be8b3ebc

Just be mindful of UTXO management

@ f53a79e2:22f83802

Good morning, Mastodon friends. It's warm this morning (27F). I aim to walk the dogs soon before precipitation starts. We have a winter weather advisory, but I don't think it's going to amount to much. I am heartbroken by the news of mass layoffs at U.S. government agencies, weakening the country, placing Americans and the world at risk, and upending individuals' lives. Otherwise a normal Saturday: bake bread, walk and train dogs, Zoom with my sister. Stay safe.

@ d5a9b366:203efe49

But I was known #bitcoin today would continue running on the wheel 🛞 Currently if I can afford to have hope and certainty about ensuring my future thanks to #BTC And with that to break the cycle my family has loaded in the generations prior to me. (Work to exist until they die, and void knowledge of how to ensure energy for the future) Thanks #Satoshinakamoto #nostr #bitcoin #grownostr #pleb #zap #money #energy #future #btc #hope

@ ff2f4cd7:bcbacd15

GM☀️

@ 496d38f6:bc49fb13

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2025/02/13/change-your-iphone-settings-now-nsa-warns-of-malicious-hacks/

@ 206ec474:34e1e544

Gleich mal mit nem ex Kollegen telefonieren und gucken, wie viele Decks hoch mittlerweile das Wasser steht 😁

@ 70e9e9bf:7507a71b

nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnddaehgu3wwp6kyqpqmjpgvy4jxa74k6hvpyf2cmejq4q9mguq60fp8gl946448f9shm6qejy0qh no way, you’re on crack 😂

@ 9ce71f15:d7e780c7

So often people make themselves afraid of the unknown that it paralyses them. The unknown they created themselves.

@ 0fc7d20c:f4327fec

Gm!

@ 86870173:487ad11b

nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnddaehgu3wwp6kyqpqe7rqcsp5pypj3ac5wxnvgnwxmdl5the60wggwlqytaxm9kql0cdsaxd2rl nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnddaehgu3wwp6kyqpq6jyvmtffzq35kuzv59wmfxk8xdwpda4fc6r7l2wq7d2j5kuyv2uqvakjz2 I appreciate the candor in the interview and the advice you give. As a lone wolf IT pro I often get absorbed into trying to be the hero and fill in all the gaps. But that doesn't work all the time. Especially when running into the buzzsaw of a family crisis combined with the shit storm that is happening in the federal government. You have been super inspirational to me since I started following on Mastodon.