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@ 2dd9250b:6e928072
2025-05-31 16:23:22Durante a década de 1990, houve o aumento da globalização da economia, determinando a adição do fluxo internacional de capitais, de produtos e serviços. Este fenômeno levou a uma interdependência maior entre as economias dos países. Justamente por causa da possibilidade de que um eventual colapso econômico em um país resulte no contágio dos demais. Diante disso, aumentou a preocupação com os riscos incentivando a utilização de sofisticados modelos e estratégias de avaliação de gestão de risco.
Na década, ganharam destaque ainda os graves problemas financeiros enfrentados, entre outros, pelo banco inglês Barings Bank, e pelo fundo de investimento norte-americano Long Term Capital Management.
Outro grande destaque foi a fraude superior a US$ 7 bilhões sofrida pelo banco Société Generale em Janeiro de 2008.
O Barings Bank é um banco inglês que faliu em 1995 em razão de operações financeiras irregulares e mal-sucedidas realizadas pelo seu principal operador de mercado. O rombo da instituição foi superior à US$ 1,3 Bilhão e causado por uma aposta equivocada no desempenho futuro no índice de ações no Japão. Na realidade, o mercado acionário japonês caiu mais de 15% na época, determinando a falência do banco. O Baring Bank foi vendido a um grupo financeiro holandês (ING) pelo valor simbólico de uma libra esterlina.
O Long Term Capital Management era um fundo de investimento de que perdeu em 1998 mais de US$ 4,6 bilhões em operações nos mercados financeiros internacionais. O LTCM foi socorrido pelo Banco Central dos Estados Unidos (Federal Reserve ), que coordenou uma operação de socorro financeiro à instituição. A justificativa do Banco Central para esta decisão era "o receio das possíveis consequências mundiais da falência do fundo de investimento".
O banco francês Société Generale informou, em janeiro de 2008, uma perda de US$ 7,16 bilhões determinadas por fraudes efetuadas por um operador do mercado financeiro. Segundo revelou a instituição, o operador assumiu posições no mercado sem o conhecimento da direção do banco. A instituição teve que recorrer a uma urgente captação de recursos no mercado próxima a US$ 5,0 bilhões.
E finalmente chegamos ao caso mais problemático da era das finanças modernas anterior ao Bitcoin, o caso Lehman Brothers.
O Lehman Brothers era o 4° maior de investimentos dos EUA quando pediu concordata em 15/09/2008 com dívidas que superavam inacreditáveis US$ 600 bilhões.
Não se tinha contas correntes ou talão de cheques do Lehman Brothers. Era um banco especializado em investimentos e complexas operações financeiras. Havia feito pesados investimentos em empréstimos a juros fixos no famigerado mercado subprime, e o crédito imobiliário voltado a pessoas consideradas de forte risco de inadimplência.
Com essa carteira de investimentos que valia bem menos que o estimado e o acúmulo de projetos financeiros, minou a confiança dos investidores na instituição de 158 anos. Suas ações passaram de US$ 80 a menos de US$ 4. Acumulando fracassos nas negociações para levantar fundos; a instituição de cerca de 25 mil funcionários entrou em concordata.
O Federal Reserve resgatou algumas instituições financeiras grandes e tradicionais norte-americanas como a seguradora AIG no meio da crise. O Fed injetou um capital de US$ 182, 3 bilhões no American International Group (AIG).
Foi exatamente essa decisão do Fed em salvar alguns bancos e deixar quebrar outros, que causou insegurança por parte dos clientes. E os clientes ficaram insatisfeitos tanto com os bancos de investimentos quanto com as agências de classificação de risco, como a Standard & Poor's que tinha dado uma nota alta para o Lehman Brothers no mesmo dia em que ele quebrou.
E essa foi uma das razões pelo qual o Bitcoin foi criado. Satoshi Nakamoto entendeu que as pessoas não estavam mais confiando nem no Governo, nem nos Bancos Privados que o Governo federal restagatava quando eles quebravam e isso prejudicou muita gente. Tanto que o “hash” do Genesis Block contém o título do artigo “Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks” (Chanceler à beira de segundo resgate para bancos, em português) da edição britânica do The Times.
Esse texto foi parcialmente editado do texto de ASSAF Neto, CAF (2014).
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@ 6c05c73e:c4356f17
2025-05-31 16:14:38Análise Detalhada das Melhores Ações para Junho 2025
O mercado financeiro está em constante movimento, e identificar oportunidades de investimento é crucial para o sucesso. Exploraremos uma seleção de ações promissoras para junho de 2025. Analisaremos cada ativo individualmente, destacando seus pontos fortes e fracos para auxiliar investidores na tomada de decisões informadas. As ações a seguir foram selecionadas com base em análises de mercado e potencial de crescimento, e incluem nomes como ALOS3, RECV3, AZUL4, USO, USDBRL, BIDU, REXR, PR, GPN e CIVI.
Análise Individual das Ações
ALOS3
Essa é uma empresa que já falei aqui e está sempre voltando ao radar. Vou deixar ela em primeiro lugar, porque para mim é. Não existe empresa imobiliária tão saudável quanto ela.
Ponto Forte: ALOS3 tem demonstrado um crescimento consistente no setor de tecnologia, com inovações e expansão de mercado. A empresa possui uma forte base de clientes e uma estratégia sólida para o futuro.
Ponto Fraco: A alta volatilidade do setor tecnológico pode impactar o desempenho de ALOS3, tornando-o um investimento de maior risco em comparação com setores mais estáveis.
RECV3
Essa empresa apareceu no meu radar esse mês. Nem sabia da sua existência. Mas, isso porque seu IPO foi em 2021. E sua especialidade está em otimização de produção e revitalização de campos de petróleo.
Ponto Forte: RECV3 se destaca no setor de varejo, com uma rede de distribuição bem estabelecida e uma marca reconhecida. A empresa tem apresentado resultados financeiros positivos e um plano de expansão ambicioso.
Ponto Fraco: A concorrência acirrada no varejo e as flutuações na economia podem afetar as margens de lucro de RECV3.
AZUL4
A empresa anunciou essa semana que entrou em recuperação judicial. Contudo, o setor aéreo é sempre uma incógnita. Na minha visão, a operação de crédito da empresa é o diamante escondido.
Ponto Forte: AZUL4 é uma das principais companhias aéreas do Brasil, com uma vasta rede de rotas e uma frota moderna. A empresa tem se beneficiado da recuperação do setor de viagens e do aumento da demanda.
Ponto Fraco: O setor aéreo é altamente sensível a fatores externos como preços de combustível e crises econômicas, o que pode gerar instabilidade para AZUL4.
USO
Com os preços do petróleo em queda, devido ao aumento de produção divulgado pela OPEC. Enxergamos uma oportunidade de médio prazo. Pois, se faz muitos produtos com petróleo. Da um Google e pesquisa aí.
Ponto Forte: USO é um fundo de investimento ligado ao petróleo, que pode se beneficiar do aumento dos preços do petróleo devido a tensões geopolíticas ou aumento da demanda global.
Ponto Fraco: O preço do petróleo é extremamente volátil e sujeito a eventos imprevisíveis, tornando o USO um investimento de alto risco.
USDBRL
Não é novidade para ninguém que o dólar está previsto em R$6 para logo menos. A julgar pela impressão monetária, juros e inflação. Não vai ser difícil chegar lá. O P O R T U N I D A D E !
Ponto Forte: USDBRL representa a taxa de câmbio entre o dólar americano e o real brasileiro. Investir nesse ativo pode ser uma forma de se proteger contra a desvalorização do real e diversificar a carteira.
Ponto Fraco: A taxa de câmbio é influenciada por inúmeros fatores econômicos e políticos, tornando-a altamente volátil e difícil de prever.
BIDU
O maior motor de busca na China está derretendo. Em partes pelos avanços das IA. Que agora são amplamente usadas para pesquisas.
Ponto Forte: BIDU é uma das maiores empresas de tecnologia da China, com forte presença no mercado de buscas e inteligência artificial. A empresa tem um grande potencial de crescimento no mercado asiático.
Ponto Fraco: As regulamentações governamentais na China e a concorrência com outras gigantes da tecnologia podem limitar o crescimento de BIDU.
REXR
Empresa californiana focada em desenvolvimento imobiliário. Com excelentes resultados e fundamentos.
Ponto Forte: REXR é uma empresa do setor imobiliário com um portfólio diversificado e um histórico de crescimento constante. A empresa tem se beneficiado do aquecimento do mercado imobiliário em algumas regiões.
Ponto Fraco: O mercado imobiliário é sensível a taxas de juros e ciclos econômicos, o que pode impactar o desempenho de REXR em momentos de crise.
PR
Cara, essa empresa chama muito a atenção. Pelos números robustos. A empresa administra petróleo e campos de gás.
Ponto Forte: A empresa PR atua no setor de recursos naturais e tem se beneficiado do aumento da demanda por commodities. A empresa possui ativos valiosos e uma operação eficiente.
Ponto Fraco: A volatilidade dos preços das commodities e questões ambientais podem afetar negativamente o desempenho de PR.
GPN
A empresa tem excelentes fundamentos e está sentada sobre uma pilha de dinheiro em caixa que excede e muito a real necessidade da empresa. Olho nela!
Ponto Forte: GPN é uma empresa do setor financeiro, com destaque para serviços de pagamento e tecnologia financeira. A empresa tem apresentado crescimento consistente e inovação em seus produtos.
Ponto Fraco: A concorrência no setor financeiro e as regulamentações podem impactar as margens de lucro de GPN.
CIVI
Para concluir nossa lista. Temos essa empresa de construção civil que derreteu caixa. Mas, tem seu valor patrimonial bem abaixo do esperado.
Ponto Forte: CIVI é uma empresa do setor de construção civil, com projetos de infraestrutura e desenvolvimento urbano. A empresa tem se beneficiado de investimentos governamentais e crescimento populacional.
Ponto Fraco: O setor de construção civil é sensível a crises econômicas e atrasos em projetos, o que pode gerar instabilidade para CIVI.
Resumo da ópera:
Investir em ações requer pesquisa e análise cuidadosa. Cada uma das empresas listadas apresenta pontos fortes e fracos que devem ser considerados. ALOS3 se destaca pela sua excelente gestão nos shoppings e imóveis. BIDU se destaca no setor de tecnologia, enquanto RECV3 e AZUL4 oferecem oportunidades nos setores de varejo e aviação. USO e USDBRL são investimentos mais voláteis, ligados ao petróleo e câmbio, respectivamente. REXR e CIVI representam o setor imobiliário e construção civil, enquanto PR e GPN atuam nos setores de recursos naturais e financeiro. Esperamos que esta análise tenha sido útil. Boa sorte em seus investimentos!
Disclaimer
Lembre-se: este não é um conselho de investimento. Faça sua própria pesquisa antes de investir. Resultados passados não garantem lucros futuros. Cuide do seu dinheiro!
Bio
Apaixonado por investimentos e pela transformação que eles podem trazer, a equipe threedolar dedica-se a desmistificar o mundo financeiro e guiar seus leitores rumo à independência financeira. Acreditamos que o conhecimento é a chave para o sucesso nos investimentos.
Links
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@ 2e8970de:63345c7a
2025-05-31 11:54:55https://evidence.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/EVIDoa2300311
The solution to peanut allergy? Import Bamba!
https://stacker.news/items/993440
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@ 005bc4de:ef11e1a2
2025-05-31 10:55:47LUV and Hivebits/HBIT/Wusang pause tl;dr LUV and HBIT (aka, Hivebits and the Wusang game) are on a pause at the moment, taking a break. https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/crrdlx/23x1SY8Vx8j1mVGnDFtq7ebuzKNGd8K9Ssex51AEerxks1VYikxGPShM7bjNhmSrEZ2wf.png Image from pixabay.com Why? There are odd things going on. I have a theory, but here's what is known... May 28, 2025, at about 1:30 pm GMT (8:30 AM EDT), a second attack (for lack of better term) hit HBIT in about a week. It seemed to start with @tyler45 with this comment https://peakd.com/blog/@tyler45/comment-20250528125108033 tx: https://he.dtools.dev/tx/7e7d4126196ca5b6dbe0a04dcded0e25d3bcc7f4 See tyler45's activity at https://he.dtools.dev/@tyler45 Notice the reply and WUSANG command is to a post by @olivia897 and how many of the other WUSANG comments on the explorer are in reply to olivia897. It seems these are all auto-generated accounts. The names and "birthdates" and interactions all point to automation. Once initiated, things happened very fast on the back end, clearly not being done manually. In this way, this seems rather sophisticated technically. I estimate just over 400 HBIT were pilfered the other day from the @Hivebits account before I noticed and was able to shut things down. Just for a little background, after the first attack May 21, 2025. I wrote a small bit of info: https://peakd.com/hivebits/@crrdlx/hbit-resource-credits A couple of days ago this post by @holoz0r was interesting: https://peakd.com/hive-133987/@holoz0r/text-analytics-reveal-thirty-two-percent-of-comments-on-hive-are-not-unique-and-at-least-ten-percent-add-no-value-to-discussion The thing that caught my eye was that the WUSANG comment was the largest by far, along with BBH (hello @bradleyarrow), because the attackers used both commands. Then, a few days later, things happened again: sudden start, repetitive bot attack, until I shut things down. So, a pause This is a period in my personal calendar where I simply don't have time to sit down at a computer for an extended period and try fiddle with this stuff. So, for now @Luvshares and @Hivebits (HBIT) and the @Wusang game are on hold. Plus, there's other fun stuff to do. https://files.peakd.com/file/peakd-hive/crrdlx/AJL43SREA1EuyqPXhydmqaq1RHhRVoYd12PfiBN5vDMu2WSKUtGeYWgKJyuRwV8.jpg I go by @crrdlx or "CR" for short. See all my links or contact info at https://linktr.ee/crrdlx.
Originally posted on Hive at https://peakd.com/@crrdlx/luv-and-hivebitshbitwusang-pause
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@ 866e0139:6a9334e5
2025-05-31 10:45:03Autor: Marcel Bühler. Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben. Sie finden alle Texte der Friedenstaube und weitere Texte zum Thema Frieden hier. Die neuesten Pareto-Artikel finden Sie in unserem Telegram-Kanal.
Die neuesten Artikel der Friedenstaube gibt es jetzt auch im eigenen Friedenstaube-Telegram-Kanal.
In einem Artikel in der NZZ vom 27. Mai mit dem Titel "Trump nennt Putin verrückt" wird über den laut Kiew grössten russischen Drohnenangriff seit Beginn des Krieges auf ukrainische Städte berichtet. Dabei sollen am vergangenen Wochenende 355 Drohnen und 69 Raketen auf Kiew, Odessa, Ternipol (Westukraine) und andere Städte gesteuert bzw. abgefeuert worden sein. 288 Drohnen und 9 Raketen konnten laut Kiew von der ukrainischen Luftverteidigung abgeschossen werden. Was der Artikel verschweigt: bereits in der Woche davor, am 20. - 22. Mai hatte die Ukraine 485 Drohnen gegen russische Städte wie Kursk, Belgorod oder Brijansk geflogen, 63 davon erreichten die Region Moskau. Auch am Wochenende schickten die Ukrainer 205 Drohnen gegen russische Städte, 13 davon erreichten Moskau. Auch hier konnte die Luftverteidigung die meisten Drohnen unschädlich machen, eine davon hatte gar den Helikopter von Präsident Putin (!) im Visier. Als Reaktion darauf erklärte Präsident Putin, dass in der ukrainischen Region Sumy bzw. Tschernihiw im Norden eine Sicherheitszoneeingerichtet werden soll da die meisten Drohnen von hier aus gestartet wurden. Auch am 27./28. Mai schickte die Ukraine wieder 296 Drohnen Richtung Moskau, offenbar soll die russische Luftverteidigung damit überlastet werden um später westliche Cruise Missiles wie "Storm shadows", "Skalp" oder die umstrittenen deutschen "Taurus" effektiver einsetzen zu können. Der neue Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz hat dafür rund 5 Milliarden Euro in Aussicht gestellt um solche Waffensysteme in der Ukraine selber zusammenbauen zu können.
Diese Gewaltspirale hat eine lange Geschichte: diese begann 2007 mit der 43. Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz, in der Präsident Putin sich gegen die unilaterale Weltordnung der USA und ihrer Verbündeten aussprach. Auch erteilte er den NATO-Osterweiterungen seit 1991 eine deutliche Absage, da diese entgegen (mündlich) gemachten Zusicherungen vollzogen wurden (siehe im Anhang die Rede im Wortlaut). Bei anderer Gelegenheit bezeichnete er vor allem einen möglichen NATO-Beitritt der (ehemals russischen) Ukraine als die "rote Linie", da es hier im Osten eine gemeinsame Grenze zu Russland über weit mehr als tausend Kilometer gebe und zudem Millionen von russischstämmigen Bürgern in der Ukraine lebten welche durch die Unabhängigkeit des Landes von ihrem Mutterland getrennt seinen. Im mittlerweile umstrittenen Budapester Memorandum von 5.12.1994 hatten zudem die Signatarmächte USA, GB und die Russische Föderation in getrennten Dokumenten die Unabhängigkeit und territoriale Integrität der Ukraine garantiert, wenn diese ein neutraler Pufferstaat zwischen der NATO und der Russischen Föderation sei und auf ihre Atomwaffen aus der sowjetischen Zeit verzichte (die Neutralität war in der ukrainischen Verfassung verankert). Trotzdem erklärten am darauffolgenden NATO-Gipfel in Bukarest im April 2008 die versammelten Staats- und Regierungschefs der 26 NATO-Staaten: "Die NATO begrüßt die euro-atlantischen Bestrebungen der Ukraine und Georgiens, die dem Bündnis beitreten wollen. Wir kamen heute überein, dass diese Länder NATO-Mitglieder werden." Zudem wurde die Unabhängigkeitserklärung des Kosowo vorbehaltlos anerkannt, dies nach einer völkerrechtswidrigen militärischen Intervention (d.h. ohne eine entsprechende UN-Resolution) der NATO gegen die Republik Serbien im Jahr 1999 (Staatsgrenzen dürfen also unter Umständen verändert werden).
Die Gewalt begann schon wenige Monate danach, als der durch die "Rosenrevolution" 2003 mit Unterstützung der USA in Tiflis an die Macht gekommene Exil-Georgier, Michail Saakaschwili, in der Nacht auf den 8.8.2008 einen militärischen Angriff auf die seit 1992/93 abtrünnigen Südosseten bzw. deren Hauptstadt Zchinwali befahl und dabei auch russische Friedenstruppen (als Schutzmacht der Osseten) unter Beschuss gerieten. Dies nachdem die Regierung Bush jr. die georgische Armee durch NATO-Offiziere ausgebildet und aufgerüstet hatte. Laut einem NZZ-Artikel vom 1.10.2009 kam eine von der EU eingesetzte Untersuchungskommission unter der Schweizer Diplomatin Heidi Tagliavini 2009 zum Schluss, dass zuvor von beiden Seiten Provokationen in Form von Terroranschlägen, Entführungen und Morde begangen worden waren. Zudem hatte Russland jahrelang an willige Osseten und Abchasen russische Pässe ausgegeben, was völkerrechtswidrig sei, da dies die Staatlichkeit Georgiens untergrabe (Abchasien ist eine weitere abtrünnige Region Georgiens am schwarzen Meer). Saakaschwili wollte offenkundig mit dem überraschenden Angriff auf die Osseten die volle Kontrolle der Zentralregierung über das Gebiet wieder erlangen, da die Satzungen der NATO nur die Aufnahme von Ländern erlauben in denen keine ungelösten territorialen Konflikte vorhanden sind. Den Abchasen hätte also das gleiche Schicksal gedroht wenn die Aktion erfolgreich gewesen wäre. Da die Russen aber aufgepasst hatten, lief innert 24 Stunden eine russische Gegenoffensive welche die georgischen Verbände und ihre amerikanischen Berater innert wenigen Tagen bis nach Gori (Geburtsort von Stalin) zurückwarf. Präsident Saakaschwili verlor bald darauf in Tiflis die Macht und setzte sich in die Ukraine ab. Die heutige georgische Regierung unterhält wieder politische und wirtschaftliche Beziehungen zu Russland und verzichtet auf einen NATO-Beitritt. Siehe dazu das Interview von Roger Köppel mit dem aktuellen georgischen Regierungschef Kobachidse (auf englisch mit deutschen Untertiteln):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWh6bAfLdhw
In der Ukraine begann die Gewalt mit dem rechtswidrigen Sturz des 2010 legal gewählten Präsidenten Wiktor Janukowitsch, der zwischen der EU und Russland hin und her gerissen war und daher die Unterzeichnung eines EU-Assoziierungsabkommens auf unbestimmte Zeit vertagte. Nach den folgenden wochenlangen Protesten und Krawallen auf dem Maidan in Kiew ("Euromaidan") unterschrieb er unter Vermittlung Deutschlands, Frankreichs und Polens am 21.2.2014 einen Vertrag mit der Opposition und versprach baldige Neuwahlen. Trotzdem wurde er am Tag darauf durch einen regelrechten Putsch gestürzt und in die Flucht getrieben, indem unbekannte Heckenschützen aus verschiedenen Positionen zuerst auf die "Berkut"-Polizei und anschliessend auf militante Demonstranten schossen, welche die "Institutskaja" hinauf das durch eine Strassensperre der Polizei geschützte Regierungsviertel stürmen wollten.
Dabei kamen insgesamt 104 Menschen ums Leben, darunter 34 Polizisten und Vertreter der Regierung. Nach dem Putsch wurde der zuvor völlig unbekannte Exil-Ukrainer Arsenij Jazenjuk Chef der neuen Übergangsregierung, von dem die Europagesandte des US-Statedepartements, Victoria Nuland, bereits einige Tage davor in einem abgehörten Telefongespräch mit dem amerikanischen Botschafter in Kiew, Geoffrey Pyatt, gesprochen hatte ("Jaz is our man"). Die mit rund 600 Mann unter Führung von Andrij Parubi während Wochen auf dem Maidan präsenten militanten und teilweise bewaffneten Kräfte des "Prawi sektor" ("Rechter Sektor") und der "Swoboda" ("Freiheit") weigerten sich zuerst, der neuen Regierung ihre Waffen auszuhändigen. Mitglieder der "Swoboda" unter Oleh Tjahibok besetzten aber anfangs im Kabinett das Aussen-, Innen-, Verteidigungs- sowie das Ministerium für Kultur und "strategische" Kommunikation (Propaganda), während die Mitglieder des "Prawi sektor" unter Dmitro Jarosch eine Zusammenarbeit mit der neuen Regierung verweigerten. Als eine der ersten Amtshandlungen nach dem Putsch wurde in der ganzen Ukraine die russische Sprache als offizielle Amtssprache und als Unterrichtssprache in den Schulen verboten (auch in den mehrheitlich von russischstämmigen Menschen bewohnten Regionen im Osten und Süden des Landes).
DIE FRIEDENSTAUBE FLIEGT AUCH IN IHR POSTFACH!
Hier können Sie die Friedenstaube abonnieren und bekommen die Artikel zugesandt, vorerst für alle kostenfrei, wir starten gänzlich ohne Paywall. (Die Bezahlabos fangen erst zu laufen an, wenn ein Monetarisierungskonzept für die Inhalte steht). Sie wollen der Genossenschaft beitreten oder uns unterstützen? Mehr Infos hier oder am Ende des Textes.
Als erste Reaktion auf den rechtswidrigen Umsturz wurde in Simferopol auf der Krim das lokale Parlament von prorussischen Aktivisten besetzt und russische Soldaten verliessen illegal den Flottenstützpunkt in Sewastopol und besetzten strategische Positionen auf der ganzen Krim bzw. blockierten die ukrainischen Kasernen. Unter dem Schutz dieser "grünen Männchen" konnte dann am 16.3.2014 ein Referendum über den zukünftigen Status der Krim durchgeführt werden. Rund 70% der Bevölkerung stimmten für eine Wiedervereinigung mit Russland, was ungefähr dem Anteil der ethnischen Russen auf der Krim entspricht. Der Kommandant der ukrainischen Flotte in Sewastopol lief mit dem Grossteil der Matrosen zu den Russen über, so dass fast die gesamte Flotte im Kriegshafen verblieb (die Schwarzmeerflotte war anfang der 90er Jahre zwischen Russland und der Ukraine aufgeteilt worden). Die restlichen Matrosen und Soldaten durften später in die Ukraine heimkehren. Angesichts der klaren Machtverhältnisse auf der Krim verzichteten die ukrainischen Ultra-Nationalisten auf die angedrohte Entsendung von "Zügen der Freundschaft" (mit bewaffneten Schlägern) nach Simferopol.
Auch in den Städten Lugansk, Donezk und Mariupol in der Ostukraine besetzten prorussische Aktivisten analog den Vorgängen einige Monate zuvor in der Westukraine Regierungs- und Verwaltungsgebäude und hissten russische Fahnen auf vielen Gebäuden. Auch hier gab es am 11. bzw. 12.5.2014 Referenden über die zukünftige Zugehörigkeit dieser Gebiete, doch konnten dabei nur ungefähr die Hälfte der Bevölkerungen überhaupt darüber abstimmen, weil die Separatisten nicht die volle Kontrolle über die jeweiligen Bezirke hatten. Auch in anderen ukrainischen Städten wie Odessa und Charkow gab es prorussische Demonstrationen, doch wurden diese von den ukrainischen Behörden unterdrückt. In Odessa kam es am 2.5.2014 zu einem Massaker, als prorussische Aktivisten von mit Zügen aus Kiew angereisten Rechtsradikalen und Hooligans in ein Gewerkschaftshaus abgedrängt wurden welches dann kurzerhand abgefackelt und mit Handfeuerwaffen beschossen wurde. Rund 50 Menschen verloren dabei ihr Leben während die ukrainische Polizei untätig herumstand.
Die am 12.4.2014 von der neuen Regierung in Kiew verkündete "Antiterror-Operation" gegen die Separatisten im Osten wurde anfangs nur zaghaft umgesetzt, da viele russischstämmige Soldaten auch hier mit den Aufständischen sympathisierten und teilweise mitsamt dem Material überliefen. Erst nachdem sich der "Spreu vom Weizen" getrennt hatte und nach der Bildung von Freiwilligenverbänden wie "Donbas","Asow" oder "Aidar" - welche in der ukrainischen Nationalgarde (dem Innen- und nicht dem Verteidigungsministerium unterstellt) zusammengefasst wurden - gewann die ukrainische Offensive an Kraft, so dass bereits im Mai/Juni 2014 die Hafenstadt Mariupol vom Asow'schen Bataillon (später ein Regiment bzw. neu die 12. Brigade für spezielle Aufgaben) und einer Marinebrigade zurückerobert und bis zur vollständigen Kapitulation im berühmten Stahlwerk "Asowstal" nach der russischen Intervention vom 24.2.2022 besetzt werden konnte. Bei den heftigen Kämpfen im Frühjahr 2022 mussten die Zivilisten wochenlang im Keller ausharren, da die Stadtverwaltung die rechtzeitige Evakuierung der Zivilbevölkerung versäumt hatte). Nach den Kesselschlachten von Ilowaisk im Juli/Aug. 2014 bzw. von Debaltsewoim Jan./Feb. 2015, bei denen weit über tausend ukrainische Soldaten und hunderte von Kämpfern der neu aufgestellten Donezker- und Lugansker Volksmilizen sowie vermutlich rund 100 russische Soldaten ihr Leben verloren (laut Kiew beteiligten sich mehrere russische Bataillone an den Kämpfen), wurde am 12.2.2015 das Minsker Abkommen (Minsk II) unter Vermittlung von Weissrussland, Deutschland und Frankreich unterzeichnet. Vertragspartner als Unterzeichnende waren: der frühere Präsident der Ukraine Leonid Kutschma, der Botschafter der Russischen Föderation in der Ukraine Michail Surabow, die Milizenführer der selbstproklamierten Volksrepubliken Igor Plotnizki und Alexander Sachartschenko sowie die OSZE-Beauftragte Heidi Tagliavini. Der Waffenstillstand und die vertrauensbildenden Massnahmen (wie z.B. der Rückzug der schweren Waffen von der Frontlinie) wurden dabei von beiden Seiten wiederholt verletzt. Am 18.2.2017 unterzeichnete der russische Präsident Wladimir Putin ein Dekret, nach dem Pässe und andere Papiere der Volksrepubliken Donezk und Lugansk von Russland offiziell als gültig anerkannt wurden, was wiederum die Staatlichkeit der Ukraine untergrub und daher dem Minsker Abkommen widersprach, wonach die abtrünnigen Gebiete weiterhin zur Ukraine gehörten. Insgesamt verloren in dem jahrelangen Konflikt bis 2022 rund 14'000 Menschen ihr Leben, darunter ca. 3'500 Zivilisten inkl. 200 Kinder, besonders in der Stadt Donezk und Umgebung welche von der ukrainischen Armee immer wieder mit Artillerie (Granaten und Raketen) oder durch Scharfschützen beschossen wurde.
Nachdem eine von NATO-Offizieren jahrelang gut ausgebildete und mit modernen Waffen aufgerüstete ukrainische Elitearmee von rund 130'000 Mann ab Sommer 2021 vor dem Donbas aufmarschiert war um den Konflikt offenkundig gewaltsam zu lösen und seit Anfang 2022 auch der ukrainische Beschuss von Donezk und dessen Umland wieder verstärkt wurde, unterzeichnete Präsident Putin am 21.2.2022 ein Freundschafts- und Beistandsabkommen mit den ostukrainischen Volksrepubliken und anerkannte ausdrücklich deren Unabhängigkeitvon Kiew. Das Minsker Abkommen habe keine Zukunft mehr. Am 24.2.2022 intervenierte die russische Armee mit anfangs "nur" rund 190'000 Mann in der Ukraine da die rund 40'000 Mann der Donezker- und Lugansker Volksmilizen einem Angriff der ukrainischen Elitearmee nicht mehr hätten standhalten können. Zuvor hatte die Russische Föderation im Dez. 2021 den USA noch einmal Verhandlungen über den Abschluss eines gesamteuropäischen Sicherheitsabkommen unter Berücksichtigung des Konflikts in der Ukraine vorgeschlagen, was aber von der Regierung Biden abgelehnt wurde. Bei Beginn der "speziellen Militäroperation" erklärte Joe Biden öffentlich, das politische Ziel sei der Sturz des Regimes in Moskau.
Mit dem Beginn der russischen Sommeroffensive an allen Frontabschnitten dürften die ukrainischen Kräfte endgültig überdehnt werden. Da der Oberbefehlshaber der Ukraine, Alexander Syrskij, aus der Region Sumy und Charkow verschiedene Verbände wie die 36. Marinebrigade, die 43. Artilleriebrigade, die 44. mechanisierte Brigade, die 82. Air Assault Brigade sowie die berüchtigte 12. Brigade "Asow" nach Südosten verlegen musste, um die Lage um den wichtigen Logistikpunkt Pokrowsk bzw. die Stadt Konstantinowka zu stabilisieren, dürften die Russen auch bei der oben erwähnten Einrichtung einer Sicherheitszone im Norden rasche Fortschritte machen. Rund 50'000 russische Soldaten werden dort eingesetzt um die zukünftige Bedrohung durch ukrainische Drohnen zu minimieren.
Zusammenfassend kann gesagt werden, dass in dem jahrelangen Konflikt alle Seiten das Völkerrecht missachtetoder zum eigenen Vorteil interpretiert haben. Angefangen damit hat aber klar der Westen (NATO und EU), der mit der finanziellen und politischen Unterstützung des rechtswidrigen Putsches in Kiew 2014 die Gewaltspirale in der Ukraine in Gang setzte und mit den anhaltenden Waffenlieferungen und Geheimdienstinformationen für den Tod von weit mehr als einer Million Soldaten auf beiden Seiten und unzähligen Zivilisten entscheidend mitverantwortlichist. Zudem wurde zumindest im Falle der Ukraine mit der NATO-Erklärung von 2008 zu deren Aufnahme als Beitrittskandidat der Geist des Budapester Memorandums von 1994 verletzt. In einem erstaunlich offenen, zweiseitigen Interview in der NZZ vom 6. Mai hat der amerikanische Politikwissenschaftler Prof. John Mearsheimervon der Universität Chicago erklärt, er hätte anstelle von Präsident Putin "die Ukraine schon viel früher überfallen". Und: "Der Westen ist der Bösewicht. Aber das wollen die USA und die Europäer natürlich nicht hören". Er glaube, dass dieser Krieg auf dem Schlachtfeld entschieden werde und dass wir am Ende einen eingefrorenen Konflikt haben werden (ähnlich wie in Georgien).
Über das Problem des ukrainischen Faschismus und Ultra-Nationalismus, der letztlich die multiethnische Ukraine in ihren Grenzen von 1991 zerstört hat, äusserte er sich nicht. Stattdessen hat die EU gerade die ersten 150 Milliarden Euro zum Aufbau einer eigenen Rüstungsindustrie beschlossen. Der neue Vorsteher des Schweizer Verteidigungsdepartementes, Bundesrat Martin Pfister, hat in einem NZZ-Artikel vom 27. Mai erklärt, die Kooperation mit der EU und der NATO müsse intensiviert werden, "stets in Vereinbarkeit mit der Neutralität". In der gleichen NZZ-Ausgabe wurde auch berichtet, dass die Schweiz den Spitzendiplomaten Gabriel Lüchinger nach Moskau schicke um für Friedensgespräche in der Schweiz zu sondieren (Bürgenstock II).
Ob der während Jahren provozierte und stigmatisierte "russische Bär" darauf noch eingeht?
(Der Beitrag folgt der Schweizer Rechtschreibung)
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@ a4043831:3b64ac02
2025-05-31 10:20:02Money can be complicated. You work hard, save diligently, and try to make smart choices. But when it comes to long-term financial security, is that enough? That’s where wealth management services come in. They help you plan, invest, and secure your financial future. But are they the right fit for you?
Let’s find out.
What Is Wealth Management?
Wealth management isn’t just about investing. It’s about creating a strategy that covers all aspects of your financial life—retirement, taxes, healthcare, and even the legacy you want to leave behind.
At Passive Capital Management, wealth management is designed to help you navigate life’s financial twists and turns with confidence. Whether you’re planning for retirement, growing your assets, or protecting what you’ve built, a structured approach can make all the difference.
Do You Need Wealth Management?
Not everyone needs a wealth manager. But if you answer “yes” to any of these questions, it might be time to consider it:
- Do you worry about outliving your retirement savings?
- Are you unsure how to structure your investments for long-term security?
- Do you want a plan that adapts as your life changes?
- Are tax implications of your income and investments confusing?
- Do you want to leave behind a financial legacy for your family?
If any of these concerns sound familiar, a wealth management service could help you create a roadmap for financial success.
The Key Benefits of Wealth Management
1. Retirement Planning: More Than Just Saving
Retirement isn’t just about putting money aside. It’s about ensuring you can live comfortably once your regular income stops. Passive Capital Management helps clients create a sustainable retirement strategy, ensuring they have enough to cover daily expenses, healthcare, and even the fun things—like travel or hobbies.
By assessing income sources like pensions, social security, and investments, they build a tailored plan that matches your lifestyle and long-term goals.
2. Investment Strategies: Making Your Money Work for You
Investing can feel overwhelming. Stocks, bonds, real estate—where do you even begin? Wealth management helps you make informed choices based on your risk tolerance, time horizon, and financial objectives.
Rather than chasing trends, a well-planned investment strategy focuses on steady, long-term growth while minimizing unnecessary risks.
3. Tax Planning: Keeping More of What You Earn
No one likes to pay more taxes than necessary. But without a strategy, you might be doing just that.
Wealth managers help structure your income, retirement withdrawals, and investments in a tax-efficient way. Whether it's maximizing tax-free accounts or minimizing liabilities, they ensure you keep more of what you’ve earned.
4. Healthcare and Long-Term Care Planning
As you age, healthcare becomes a bigger concern—and a bigger expense. Without proper planning, medical costs can quickly eat into your savings.
A solid financial plan includes strategies to manage these costs, whether through insurance, savings, or investment strategies. This way, you get the care you need without financial stress.
5. Estate and Legacy Planning
Do you want to leave something behind for your loved ones? Wealth management ensures your assets are distributed according to your wishes, minimizing tax burdens and avoiding unnecessary legal complications.
Whether you’re thinking about passing on wealth to family or contributing to a cause you care about, having a plan in place ensures your money makes the impact you want.
When Should You Start?
The best time to start planning? Yesterday. The second-best time? Today.
Wealth management isn’t just for retirees or the ultra-rich. It’s for anyone who wants financial security and a clear plan for the future. Whether you’re in your 30s and just starting to build wealth or in your 50s preparing for retirement, having expert guidance can help you make smarter financial decisions.
Final Thoughts: Is It Right for You?
If you want peace of mind about your financial future, wealth management might be a great fit. It helps you grow your money, protect your assets, and ensure a comfortable life—now and in the years to come.
At Passive Capital Management, the goal is simple: to help you achieve financial freedom with confidence. If that sounds like something you want, it might be time to explore how wealth management can work for you.
Ready to take the next step? Let’s talk.
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@ 8173f6e1:e488ac0f
2025-05-31 09:25:14Start writing your article [CoreNostrService] Publish results: 6/6 successful, 0 paid relays skipped core-service.ts:174 🗑️ [DEBUG] Deletion event published: ef7f0123a7b6a750bed1806cf102bf919eb15b61c4c39b94e65ce2bfd2c25761 core-service.ts:174 ✅ Published deletion event for original article core-service.ts:174 🗑️ Removing old article from local state: article_1748683257035_1lnua6yia core-service.ts:174 🗑️ [Redux] Deleting article: "create article 1" [article_1748683257035_1lnua6yia] core-service.ts:174 ✅ [Redux] Article deleted. Remaining: 1 core-service.ts:174 🔄 Refreshing articles list to reflect deletion... core-service.ts:174 [useArticles] State updated: {totalArticles: 1, drafts: 0, published: 1, draftIds: Array(0)} core-service.ts:174 [useArticles] State updated: {totalArticles: 1, drafts: 0, published: 1, draftIds: Array(0)} core-service.ts:174 [ArticlesPage] Component state: {draftsCount: 0, publishedCount: 1, activeTab: 'published', selectedDraftForViewing: undefined} core-service.ts:174 [CoreNostrService] Query subscription closed: closed by caller,closed by caller,closed by caller,closed by caller,closed by caller,closed by caller, returning 3 events core-service.ts:174 [useArticles] State updated: {totalArticles: 3, drafts: 0, published: 3, draftIds: Array(0)} core-service.ts:174 [ArticlesPage] Component state: {draftsCount: 0, publishedCount: 3, activeTab: 'published', selectedDraftForViewing: undefined} core-service.ts:174 [CoreNostrService] Query subscription closed: closed by caller,closed by caller,closed by caller,closed by caller,closed by caller,closed by caller, returning 2 events core-service.ts:174 [EventsAPI] Querying events with filters: [{…}] core-service.ts:174 [CoreNostrService] Query subscription closed: closed by caller,closed by caller,closed by caller,closed by caller,closed by caller,closed by caller, returning 56 events core-service.ts:174 [EventsAPI] Querying events with filters: [{…}] core-service.ts:174 [CoreNostrService] Query subscription closed: closed by caller,closed by caller,closed by caller,closed by caller,closed by caller,closed by caller, returning 56 events core-service.ts:174 [EventsAPI] Querying events with filters: [{…}] core-service.ts:174 [CoreNostrService] Query subscription closed: closed by caller,closed by caller,closed by caller,closed by caller,closed by caller,closed by caller, returning 56 events core-service.ts:174 [EventsAPI] Querying events with filters: [{…}] core-service.ts:174 [CoreNostrService] Query subscription closed: closed by caller,closed by caller,closed by caller,closed by caller,closed by caller,closed by caller, returning 56 eventshere...
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@ 17e2889f:a8fbe515
2025-05-31 09:14:33More content will come soon!
Headline
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@ 84b0c46a:417782f5
2025-05-31 09:11:23Simple Long Form Content Editor (NIP-23)
機能
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nostr:npub1sjcvg64knxkrt6ev52rywzu9uzqakgy8ehhk8yezxmpewsthst6sw3jqcw や、 nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzq4jsz7zew5j7jr4pdfxh483nwq9vyw9ph6wm706sjwrzj2we58nqqyxhwumn8ghj77tpvf6jumt9qys8wumn8ghj7un9d3shjtt2wqhxummnw3ezuamfwfjkgmn9wshx5uqpr4mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumn0wd68ytnhd9ex2erwv46zu6nsqyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqqsgcn99jyn5tevxz5zxsrkd7h0sx8fwnqztula423xh83j9wau7cms3vg9c7 のようにnostr:要素を挿入できる (メニューのNアイコンから挿入またはnostr:note~~のように手動で入力)
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:monoice:のようにカスタム絵文字を挿入できる(メニューの🙂アイコンから)
:monopaca_kao:
:kubipaca_karada:
- 新規記事作成と、既存記事の修正ができる
やることやったこと
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[x] nostr:を投稿するときにtagにいれる
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[x] 画像をアップロードできるようにする(NIP-96)
できる
- [x] 投稿しましたログとかをトースト的なやつでだすようにする
- [ ] レイアウトを整える
- [ ] あとなんか
test
nostr:naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzpp9sc34tdxdvxh4jeg5xgu9ctcypmvsg0n00vwfjydkrjaqh0qh4qqxnzde58q6njvpkxqersv3ejxw9x9
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@ 57d1a264:69f1fee1
2025-05-31 06:19:55Knowledge
- Pattern knowledge
- Trend knowledge
- A desire to learn more
- A desire to explore good design
Experience
- A sense of where to start/what will work
- Good taste
- Good judge of your own design and others’
- Comfortable working in many styles
- Willing to have a strong opinion
Creativity
- Novel ideas
- Exhaustive exploration of options/approaches
- Exhaustive iteration
Quality
- A preference for quality
- A preference to test designs
- Open to feedback
- Able to balance classical and expressive aesthetics
- Able to balance aesthetics and usability
- Obsessed with details
- Rigorous
Technical skills
- Good typography
- Good composition/layout
- Good colour choices
- Good at some associated skills (e.g. prototyping, animation, imagery, writing)
- Tool expertise
Wider picture
- Informed by understanding of the product (e.g. research)
- System thinking (how the work is connected to other things)
- Product thinking (what makes a successful product)
- Development thinking (how a design might be implemented)
- Practical mindset when necessary
- Believes in importance of accessibility
Communication
- Able to articulate your design “feelings”
- Able to explain design principles to others
- Can clearly document/explain the design (e.g. specifications, mockups)
- Good relationship-building, especially with developers
- Able to “sell” a design idea
Read more about
Anthony Hobday
.https://stacker.news/items/993319
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@ 3770c235:16042bcc
2025-05-31 05:30:22In a world full of constant stimulation, overflowing schedules, and ever-growing to-do lists, our physical spaces often bear the brunt of our busy lives. The clutter in our homes and workplaces can slowly pile up until it becomes overwhelming, contributing not only to a chaotic environment but also to increased levels of stress and anxiety.
But what if the simple act of removing junk and organizing your space could bring clarity to your mind, lift your mood, and create a lasting positive impact on your mental health? Decluttering isn't just about aesthetics—it’s about mental wellness. Junk removal can be a powerful tool to help you take control of your space and, in turn, your mindset. Let’s explore how clearing the clutter can boost mental health and transform your daily life.
The Psychological Impact of Clutter Clutter isn’t just stuff—it’s unmade decisions and postponed actions. Psychologists have long understood the connection between our environment and our emotional well-being. Clutter bombards our minds with excessive stimuli, making it difficult to focus or relax. It sends a signal that work is never done, which can lead to chronic stress.
A study published in the Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin found that women who described their homes as cluttered or full of unfinished projects were more likely to be fatigued and depressed than those who described their homes as restorative and restful. The same study found that cortisol levels—the body’s main stress hormone—were significantly higher in women living in cluttered environments.
Additionally, according to a UCLA study, families living in homes with a high density of household objects experienced increased levels of anxiety. The psychological toll of clutter isn’t minor; it has real, measurable effects on our mental health.
Junk Removal as an Act of Self-Care Self-care isn't just about spa days or bubble baths—it's about creating systems and habits that support your well-being. Removing clutter and excess junk from your living or working space can be an essential act of self-care, sending your brain a clear message: you deserve a clean, peaceful environment.
The physical act of junk removal creates a sense of accomplishment. Whether it’s donating unused clothing, throwing away broken items, or clearing out the garage, every bag removed is a step toward emotional relief. The process can be surprisingly cathartic, especially for those dealing with stress, grief, or major life transitions.
Why Clutter Creates Mental Clutter Clutter and disorganization can reduce our ability to process information. Researchers at Princeton University Neuroscience Institute found that physical clutter competes for your attention, resulting in decreased performance and increased stress. When your environment is chaotic, your mind tends to mimic that chaos.
Every time you walk past a cluttered desk or disorganized closet, your brain registers it as a task you haven't completed. Over time, this leads to mental fatigue. You might find yourself feeling constantly behind, overwhelmed, or unable to concentrate—even when you're not consciously thinking about the mess.
On the flip side, a tidy, clutter-free environment can promote mental clarity, boost productivity, and help foster a greater sense of control and calm.
How Junk Removal Enhances Mood There’s a distinct emotional payoff to junk removal. Many people report feeling lighter, freer, and happier after decluttering a space. Here's why: 1. Reduces Anxiety and Stress Too much clutter can create a constant low-grade stress that gnaws away at your peace of mind. By physically removing items that no longer serve a purpose, you're also removing sources of tension. 2. Improves Focus and Productivity When your environment is clear, your mind follows suit. A cleaner space supports sharper thinking and better decision-making. Whether you're working from home or studying, a decluttered area can significantly enhance your ability to concentrate. 3. Boosts Self-Esteem Clutter can carry feelings of guilt or shame—reminders of undone tasks, unused purchases, or poor organizational habits. Taking the step to clean up can restore confidence and create a sense of achievement.
- Encourages Mindfulness Decluttering forces you to be present. You have to examine each item, reflect on its usefulness, and make a conscious decision about its place in your life. This process promotes mindfulness and intentional living.
The Decluttering Process: Step-by-Step for Mental Clarity If the idea of decluttering your entire home feels overwhelming, start small. Begin with one drawer, one shelf, or one room. Here's a practical approach to get started:
Step 1: Set a Clear Intention Know why you're decluttering. Is it to feel less stressed? To improve your focus? Having a specific goal will keep you motivated. Step 2: Sort Items into Categories Use the classic “keep, donate, toss” system. Be honest with yourself about what adds value to your life. Step 3: Focus on One Area at a Time Avoid jumping from room to room. Focus your energy on one space to see progress quickly and stay motivated.
Step 4: Remove the Junk Promptly Once you've sorted items for removal, don’t let them linger. Hire a junk removal service or take them to a donation center right away. Step 5: Maintain Your Space Set a monthly reminder to reassess clutter. Make it a habit, not a one-time task.
Professional Help: The Role of Junk Removal Services For some people, the physical and emotional burden of clearing out clutter is too overwhelming to tackle alone. This is where professional junk removal services come in. These services not only handle the heavy lifting but also offer a judgment-free way to transform your space quickly and efficiently. By outsourcing the task, you reduce stress and avoid decision fatigue. It’s a practical solution for busy professionals, seniors downsizing, or those recovering from emotional trauma like the loss of a loved one.
The mental relief from seeing a room go from chaotic to clean in just a few hours is worth the investment. Plus, many services are eco-friendly and donate reusable items to charities, adding another layer of purpose to the process.
Real-Life Impacts: Statistics that Speak Decluttering doesn’t just feel good—it’s backed by data. Consider this: • According to a study by the National Association of Professional Organizers, 54% of Americans are overwhelmed by clutter, and 78% have no idea what to do with it [source]. • A report from the Journal of Environmental Psychology found that people with clean homes are happier and more relaxed, with higher activity levels and lower levels of cortisol [source]. These statistics highlight how deeply our environment influences our emotional health—and how important it is to reclaim control of your space.
Decluttering in the Digital Age While physical clutter is the most obvious, digital clutter can also affect your mental state. Overflowing email inboxes, unorganized files, and constant notifications can leave you feeling scattered and distracted. Take time to regularly clean up your digital life by: • Unsubscribing from unwanted emails • Deleting unused apps • Organizing desktop files and folders • Turning off non-essential notifications Just like physical spaces, a clean digital environment supports a clearer, more focused mind.
When Clutter Signals Something Deeper While decluttering is beneficial, it’s important to recognize when excessive clutter or hoarding behavior may be a sign of deeper mental health issues. Conditions such as depression, anxiety, and obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) can manifest in the inability to discard items or maintain an organized space. If clutter feels insurmountable or leads to distress and dysfunction, it may be time to seek support from a mental health professional. Therapy can help address the root causes and develop strategies for long-term change.
Final Thoughts: Clearing the Path to Mental Well-Being Junk removal and decluttering may seem like simple tasks, but their effects on your mental health can be profound. By reducing chaos in your environment, you invite peace, focus, and emotional clarity into your life. Whether you choose to tackle the clutter yourself or enlist the help of professionals, taking the first step is often the hardest—and the most transformative. Your environment is a mirror of your mind. Clear the clutter, and you’ll often find that clarity, joy, and calm aren’t far behind.
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@ c230edd3:8ad4a712
2025-05-31 01:51:38Chef's notes
Most Santa Maria tri tip roast recipes call for red wine vinegar and dijon mustard. I prefer other ingredients in place of those, but should you like those flavors and textures, they are more traditional.
Keep in mind when cooking and slicing, that the grain of tri-tip runs in 3 directions and the meat is unevenly thick. Pulling the roast when the thin end achieves well done, the thicker end will be a nice medium rare. When slicing, change direction to cut against the grain as you transition through for the most tender outcome.
Details
- ⏲️ Prep time: 10 minutes
- 🍳 Cook time: 1 hour ( with grill heating time)
- 🍽️ Servings: 4-6
Ingredients
- 1.5 - 2 lb Tri-Tip Roast
- 1 Tbsp Kosher Salt
- 1 tsp Black Pepper
- 1 tsp Cayanne Pepper ( substitute all or some with smoked paprika for a milder taste)
- 1 tsp Garlic Powder
- 1 tsp Onion Powder
- 1 Tbsp Rosemary
- 2 Tbsp Stone Ground Mustard
- 1 Tbsp Rice Vinegar
- 2-3 Cloves Garlic, Minced
Directions
- Mix all dry spices.
- Pat the roast dry and coat on all sides with seasdoning mix.
- Cover loosely and allow to sit in fridge for 8-12 hours.
- Preheat grill to 475 degrees F, allow meat to sit at room temp during this process.
- Mix vinegar, mustard, and minced garlic.
- Place meat on hot grill, fat side down and coat the upward side with mustard mix
- Grill approximately 7-10 minutes.
- Flip meat, repeat coating and grilling.
- Flip once more and grill for 2-3 minutes to caramelize the glaze and until the fat begins to render.
- Remove from grill and let the roast rest for 5 minutes before slicing,
- Serve with grilled veggies or any side of your choice. This is a bit spicy so it goes well with a salsa fresca and tortillas, too.
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@ 812cff5a:5c40aeeb
2025-05-31 01:12:55NIP-02 — أنماط المفاتيح العامة
رقم التعريف (NIP): 02
العنوان: أنماط المفاتيح العامة
الحالة: نهائي
المؤلف: fiatjaf
التاريخ: 2020-12-10
الملخص
يقترح هذا المستند نمطًا معياريًا لطريقة تمثيل المفاتيح العامة (public keys) في نُستر — يُعرف باسم
npub
— لتسهيل مشاركتها وقراءتها من قبل البشر، تمامًا كما يتم تمثيل عناوين البيتكوين بـ bech32.
التنسيق المقترح
نقترح استخدام bech32 لترميز المفاتيح العامة، حيث يكون التنسيق كالتالي:
npub1<سلسلة bech32>
على سبيل المثال:
npub1qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqzv9sx
هذا الشكل يمكن نسخه بسهولة، والتعرف عليه بصريًا، والتعامل معه دون الوقوع في أخطاء النسخ الشائعة للمفاتيح بصيغ hex.
السبب
- الشكل hex التقليدي للمفاتيح العامة (مثل
32e...af1
) صعب القراءة. - bech32 أسهل للمشاركة عبر الرسائل أو الوسائط الاجتماعية.
- وجود بادئة
npub1
يوضح فورًا أن السلسلة تمثل مفتاحًا عامًا في نظام نُستر.
ملاحظات إضافية
- نفس المبدأ يُستخدم أيضًا مع أنواع أخرى مثل
note
(لتمثيل معرفات الأحداث) وnsec
(للمفاتيح الخاصة). - هذه الصيغ لا تغيّر البيانات الأصلية، بل فقط تمثلها بطريقة أسهل وأكثر أمانًا للبشر.
الخلاصة
npub
هو معيار لتنسيق المفاتيح العامة باستخدام bech32، مما يجعلها أكثر قابلية للقراءة والاستخدام من قبل البشر.
يُوصى بأن تستخدم جميع تطبيقات نُستر هذا النمط عند عرض أو مشاركة المفاتيح العامة. - الشكل hex التقليدي للمفاتيح العامة (مثل
-
@ 14206a66:689725cf
2025-05-31 00:54:40We’ve all been there, you’re locked in, desperately fighting with spreadsheets, the dishwasher’s going, and a banana cake is in the oven. Suddenly, all goes quiet, lights are off, oven’s off, PC dead as a doorknob. You check the fusebox, it’s fine. Must be a blackout. Usually, the power comes back on after 30 minutes to an hour, but you’re left standing there wondering what happened.
We’ve just seen a country-wide scale event like this, which was much more extreme. On 28th April, the Iberian Peninsula experienced a catastrophic breakdown of the grid (see here).
Power was off for several days. I won’t dig into the details of this particular event; doing so is way beyond my pay grade. Suffice it to say it follows the ideas I want to introduce in this article.
We’ll begin with the simplest model I can think of, getting to grips with the issue from first principles. Then I’ll walk through how the basic premise scales up the Australian grid (or at least the east coast, the NEM), before introducing the shadowy supergeniuses in control of it all (AEMO) and one of the most important market mechanisms they use - Frequency Control Ancillary Services (FCAS).
Part one: First principles
Imagine a way-over-simplified system with a single source of power and a single load. Our source of power is just a battery that produces 10MW of power at an assumed 1000V. The battery has no rotating components. It is connected to a very basic inverter. The inverter is designed to produce 50 Hz AC power; however, let's imagine it has no sophisticated voltage controls or protections (unlike real inverters). All that our inverter comprises is a basic switching and timing circuit.
This specific frequency of 50 Hz is a fundamental design standard for almost all AC electrical equipment. Just like a clock needs to tick at a precise rate to tell accurate time, electrical devices like motors rely on the AC power cycling exactly 50 times per second. If the frequency deviates too much, it can cause motors to speed up or slow down incorrectly, or sensitive electronics to malfunction. Our simple inverter, despite its limitations, is designed to produce 50 Hz because that's what the heater and any other AC device expect.
Our load is a large but mechanically simple industrial heater. It has a large coil that produces heat by running a current through it. Importantly, the heater has a dial to adjust temperature (which can change its power consumption). The heater is currently set to draw 10MW of power.
That’s the start, with a simplified system in equilibrium, all is well. The heater is producing heat, and you can make up your own story about what the heat is used for. The important point is that the voltage, current, and frequency are all stable.
Next, the foreman operating the heater turns the dial up to increase the heat output. Assume the heater now wants to draw 20MW of power. We’re simplifying, so also assume that in this instant, the voltage remains at 1000V.
To draw this much power, the heater now has to draw more current (because power = voltage x current, it’s the rules). Since we assumed the voltage remains at 1000V, there is an instantaneous demand for more power from the battery than it was previously supplying.
The battery now attempts to supply this current, which means the current must flow through the battery’s components, the inverter’s components, and the wire connecting the battery to the heater. All of these physical components have resistance. This means the actual voltage the heater receives will be lower than 1000V.
Now that the heater is receiving voltage lower than 1000V, things start to go wrong. The power consumed by the heater is proportional to the square of the voltage across it (rules are rules), so power = voltage^2 / resistance. Following this rule, since the voltage has decreased, then that means the actual power the heater draws will be less than the 20MW desired. For example, it might only draw 15MW, but it depends on the resistances in all the components, which we haven’t set.
Things just get uglier. The battery and inverter are operating under extreme stress, trying to deliver the higher current demanded, but at reduced voltage. Inside the inverter and the battery, the components start getting hot (rules, again). Since we assumed the battery and inverter are super simple, the inverter can't adjust its power output based on actual grid conditions (like a sophisticated one would); it can only fail. Then the heater goes out, and the foreman gets mad; it’s just a bad day all around.
The fix: add a spinny thing.
Reimagine the situation just as before, but now, instead of a battery, imagine the source of power is a contemporary synchronous generator system. Say it’s a hydro plant, where the spinning turbine is directly connected to the grid. This generator, unlike the battery-inverter, inherently uses its large rotating mass to move a metal rod up and down inside a magnetic coil and produces AC power. Importantly, it synchronises with our system’s required 50 Hz rhythm.
In this case, the story proceeds as before. When the foreman turns the heater dial up the heater wants to draw 20MW. In this case, the increased current flows through the impedance of the generator’s internal components and the wire. Just as before, this causes an immediate, rapid voltage drop at the heater’s terminals. In that instant, the heater will not get its desired 20MW because the voltage is too low.
Since the generator’s power output is less than the load demand, the lack of energy causes the rotating mass of the generator to decelerate (energy is conserved), and the frequency of the AC power in the system drops below 50 HZ. Because the generator’s turbine is a large mass, it has substantial inertia (pesky rules again), so the drop in frequency happens much more slowly than in our first story, and there is no catastrophic failure of the system. Instea,d this inertia buys time for the system to react.
The reaction comes from the manager of the generator. In the real world, this is a piece of software called a governor, but it’s useful to imagine it’s a person. The manager sees the drop in frequency and presses some buttons to let more water flow to the turbine, the frequency climbs back to 50 HZ and the power output of the generator increases.
Then the heater gets its required 20MW of power at 1000V and 50Hz, and the foreman is happy, everyone’s happy, it’s just a good time.
Frequency, in this simple system, indicates power imbalances and triggers the manager of the generator to respond. Equally, we could have assumed the foreman can be notified that he shouldn’t increase the heater’s dial - we can manage the imbalance either on the supply (generator) or demand (heater) side, or a mix of both.
This hints at a crucial question: how the hell do we coordinate this? Even with just a single load and a single generator, what sort of contracts would the foreman and generator manager need to keep everything running?
Part deux: AEMO, the not-so-invisible hand coordinating the market
Above is a story of a system with one load and one generator, without protections for the management of voltage or frequency. I walked through how this simple system could suffer a catastrophic breakdown as a result of the load increasing. Followed by a slight added complexity, which solves the issue.
Everything that applies in the simplified model also applies in the real world; the basic principles scale up and create complex incentives, coordination, and knowledge problems.
In my simple story, there was a manager in charge of the generator and a foreman in charge of the heater. In the much more complex National Electricity Market (NEM), there’s a third main actor: Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO, because it operates the energy market, perfect naming convention). Among a host of competing priorities, AEMO has one role we’re particularly interested in: making sure we have a good time, i.e making sure the grid is stable. How it does so is the economics bit.
The NEM covers a huge geographic area (all the way up the East Coast from South Australia up to North Port Douglas). Within the vast area it covers are around 10 million customer connections (source). AEMO provides an interactive map that shows you how many substations there are - lots!
here's a map from AEMO
With all those connections and interconnections, the only constant is change. Strong winds can suddenly break connections, generators can trip for a host of reasons, and sometimes physics just says “no”.
On the flip side, sometimes large loads connect unpredictably and want instant power to be available. The physics says supply must equal demand or things get bad, so how does AEMO make sure supply equals demand?
In short, dispatch instructions. AEMO coordinates the supply-side market participants using signals to their control rooms. The economics of it could be summed up as: AEMO is a visible hand trying to approximate the role of Smith’s invisible hand in the market*.
Though not the focus of my current article, dispatch can be (over)simplified as follows: Every five minutes, generators send an offer to AEMO containing a price-quantity pair for power output. AEMO sorts the offer from lowest price to highest and matches supply to forecasted demand, starting from the lowest offer to create a dispatch interval/dispatch window, within system constraints. Importantly, generators all receive the highest marginal price (spot price) of all offers within the dispatch interval. Then, all generators included in the dispatch interval receive revenue equal to their power dispatched times the spot price.
So, assuming the system is in balance. This plays out, and everyone’s happy. But that’s not guaranteed in such a complex interconnected system like the NEM. So, what happens if, after offers are placed and power is scheduled, a generator suddenly trips off (cutting supply) or a large load connects unexpectedly (rapidly ramping up demand)?
AEMO needs some sort of backup power supply or backup demand as a contingency for when imbalances happen. One of such contingencies is what we call this service provision Frequency Control Ancillary Services (FCAS). So named because AEMO uses system frequency to understand where, when, and how much extra supply or demand (load) is required to return the system to the normal stable operation.
But AEMO doesn’t own any generators, batteries, or large loads itself. So, how does it get them? Someone came up with the idea that you can sell backup supply or demand (load) to AEMO, for a fee. This idea implies that AEMO has to find the right incentives to bring backup supply or backup demand (load) online in a flash.
There’s a market for that!
Actually, there are eight markets, but we’re simplifying.
To procure FCAS, AEMO runs a similar auction process to the market for power. Participants submit bids to AEMO every five minutes, containing a service type and availability across up to 10 price bands. The service type is one of: increase/decrease frequency in one of the three time intervals.
AEMO then considers all bids and finds the least-cost solution that meets all system requirements, matching the supply of FCAS to the demand for FCAS. Just like in the market for power, AEMO orders the FCAS bids into a “merit order” based on price for each service type (lowest price to highest price). It then decides which bids it will accept and pays all accepted bids the highest marginal price of all accepted bids. This creates a price signal for FCAS in the market.
The design has obvious intentions: FCAS suppliers win big if they can be super low cost while their competitors are high cost.
Just like in the market for power, once bids are accepted, AEMO sends a signal to the control panels of the FCAS participants.
You can see how , by following this process, AEMO acts to approximate the emergent order (or invisible hand) of a market by creating price signals for both power supply as well as FCAS. Then, physically matching those price signals with the actual power flows using a (pretty amazing, honestly) control scheme.
The idea that AEMO is only approximating the invisible hand is important; I’ll explore that more deeply in future articles.
That’s the physics and market mechanisms in a nutshell. But who sells FCAS to AEMO, and what about the mullah, dollars, buckerinos, fat stacks?
Part tres: How big is the market
Firstly, who can participate in the FCAS market? As far as I understand, it’s quite open; if you invent a device that meets the standards and go through the application process, then you can participate. AEMO’s concern is system stability, so from their POV, any particular device is fair game as long as you meet the engineering standards.
One common example is certain electricity retailers who use their customers’ hot water cylinders as a demand response. By sending an electrical signal to your hot water cylinder, the company can turn it off for a short period, reducing demand (load). There’s a complex “annoyance cost” paid by the consumer of their hot water cylinder being turned off, but then that’s balanced against potentially lower bills as the electricity retailer can substitute FCAS revenue.
Another example is grid-scale batteries; these can build or release charge on a whim. For batteries, the incentives are about whether their charge is worth more in the spot market or in the supply response FCAS market. If the battery is connected to a facility like a solar plant, then the incentives get more complex; is it worth selling power instantly or building charge in the battery for potential spot market or FCAS later? Add in a futures market and you just get more complexity.
A final, still emerging, example is bitcoin miners, these are basically just computers. These machines can be powered up or down relatively quickly and easily with little ill physical effects, and no ill effects to the Bitcoin network or protocol. When they are powered up, they earn a stream of income for the owners in the form of bitcoin.
This creates an interesting dynamic when bitcoin miners participate in the FCAS market; their FCAS bid, all else equal, should be at least the value of the opportunity cost of not mining bitcoin.
A completely unanswered question is what happens if bitcoin mining becomes a large proportion of FCAS? Consider a case where the FCAS from bitcoin miners drops out of the market because bitcoin fees spike and miners find it more profitable to mine rather than provide FCAS.
Alright, but the money! Surely FCAS is lucrative?
AEMO publishes data on FCAS. The most readily understandable data is the payment data. This is, as the name suggests, how much AEMO paid to FCAS participants over the eight service types (and in each State/Territory in the NEM) each month. This is the raw revenue of FCAS market participants. One way to think of it is as the cost of stability.
In total, FCAS payments have been about $39 million this year (up to week 20, which ended May 18).
AEMO has also provided total revenue for FCAS from batteries in the NEM, specifically in its Quarterly Energy Dynamics - Q1 2025, covering 1 January to 31 March 2025 report. This data suggests that batteries in the NEM have earned $69 million in 2024, which is 42.9 percent of all FCAS costs. This is remarkable to me, because grid-scale batteries are relatively new to the market as compared to other generation and storage technologies.
The cause lies in the fact that batteries can* *have a low marginal cost to charge and discharge, so the fact that they captured such market share this fast highlights the idea that he who produces FCAS cheapest wins.
This data release also contains aggregate FCAS costs for all states. The data tells us that in 2024, total FCAS costs were $161 million.
The fact that there is such a healthy pot up for grabs speaks to the fragility of our grid, but also to the resilience; it's a strange duality.
With continued investment in solar generation, because such systems have little to no inertia, we could see increased frequency excursions (technical term for being out of range). Engineers are busy solving this using inverters, which simulate inertia. These are genius, but such innovations take time (and standards) to be adopted.
Then there’s the question of critical infrastructure risk - how tolerant can we be of instability when datacenters mining Bitcoin and running AI models are on the line
At the risk of repeating myself, the whole construction is very much a visible hand trying to approximate what Adam Smith’s invisible hand might do.
Fin
Full disclosure, I do use AI (Gemini specifically) to help me research, learn, and write my articles, but I go over everything multiple times to make it my own voice and reflect my own ideas.
*Adam Smith described the idea of an invisible hand, which directs the market, coordinating people's desires, as a metaphor to explain how people in a market somehow end up serving each other's best interests even without directly communicating.
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@ 81022b27:2b8d0644
2025-05-31 00:47:43Today some clients and I were talking and they asked me about my recent seminar where I attended the “Unleash The Power Within” seminar with Tony Robbins. I explained that the firewalk I performed was not the highlight of the seminar, It was all the junk I got rid of mentally. We talked some more and then someone said something a little derogatory about Scientology.
I said, “wait a second, Scientology changed my life!”
It’s true. Some of the things I learned through Dianetics and Scientology were catalysts in me changing my entire life around.
It started one evening in Coral Gables, FL when I was walking down the street going to meet someone for dinner. I was stopped by a lady holding a clipboard outside of a 50’s-looking building.
“Would you like to take personality test?”
I asked: “What’s that?”
She explained and since I’m always early to things, I had plenty of time to kill. I said: “Sure! let’s do it!”
I took the test and the results seemed spot on. Then they asked if I would like to learn more about the mind , I could sign up for a course for a modest amount and I was genuinely curious about the whole deal and I agreed.
The Class I came back like a week later to start the class. I’m remembering that building had a distinct smell. It wasn’t bad. I can’t really describe it, but if I ever smell something similar, I’d recognize it instantly.
I walked in and they took me to a big room, a classroom with lots of tables and chairs. Every table had a small box with objects in it. There were people reading, there were people in groups studying, lots of chatter.
It seemed exciting!
I don’t remember if it was my first lesson or not, but we had to do TR’s (Training Routines) and I was asked to sit across from some guy and just stare at him. Look him in the eyes and not laugh, not blink excessively, just keep your composure.
Bah! Stupid! But I can do this!
We started the exercise and it seemed silly at first, but then my heart started racing and started freaking out. It felt like I was in a tunnel, but somehow his eyes were attacking me.
Then all of a sudden I’m hovering 8 feet above myself and I’m looking at the situation from above.
Next thing I know, I’m back in my body and the exercise is over.
The teacher, or facilitator came by to ask me how everything went. I started to tell her exactly what happened and she was writing very matter-of-fact-ly.
“And then I left my body!,” I emphasized.
“So you exteriorized?” She asked.
“I guess.”, I mumbled.
What really made me curious is these people are just nonchalantly just writing down stuff like it’s no big deal.
They got me. I was hooked.
Auditing
I started doing some courses whenever I had some free time: maybe once or twice a week. I learned that there is something that they call the “reactive mind” and that past traumas can affect someone in the present time.
We did this exercise that when my “Auditor” would snap her fingers, I would repeat the first word that popped into my mind, until we got a string of words. I would the repeat this string of words until they “lost their charge” and had no effect.
During one of these sessions, I
felt like I was choking.
No, not choking !
I could taste salt water!
I was drowning!
This shook me up because I had no recollection of almost drowning like that.
I asked my mother if I ever almost drowned and I was surprised by her answer.
She said; “Yes. We were at the beach-you were a baby and in the water with your father. A wave got both of you and your dad had to throw you towards me like a football, because he couldn’t fight the riptide.”
Wow.
Study Tech
before you start the “heavy” course, you must learn how to study. So they have designed a way to teach people “How.”
I thought, “wow, no one ever really taught me how to study.”
In high school, I kind of just skated by, with no need to ever read or do much. I didn’t make valedictorian, but I was discovering my social life and that was top priority for me at the time.
They showed me if you read something and can’t remember what you just read, t means you read past a misunderstood word. You never skip a word you don’t understand. There are always dictionaries at every study table.
If you get woozy and want to bail on the material being studied, then you have skipped a gradient, so you should go back to a point you understand and work back up.
If you get a headache while, studying, that means you have a “lack of mass” and the topic is abstract and you need to make it more physical to be able to understand it.
That is why they had those baskets with modeling clay and stuff in it, so you could model out concepts.
I still use this knowledge.
Basic Study Manual
The Purification Program
At some point one of the coaches pointed out that if I wanted to make quicker progress, I should do The Purification Program. The Program is designed to get rid of environmental toxins and medications and other materials that are stuck in your physical body and is interfering with your progress “up the bridge”
So of course, I am fascinated by this idea and sign up for the course, This time, it;s a lot of books and it’s going to cost be some serious cash. I didn’t have that kind of money, because I was scraping by on an assistant manager at Wendy’s salary.
No worries, take out a new credit card to pay for it. And one of the members drove out to my work to get the signature (and $$) to pay for the course. I think It was the end of the month and they got a bonus if I signed up before then.
The Program
The program basically consists of sitting in a sauna for 5 hours a day, Taking supplements: cal-mag, megadoses of niacin, and oils
It was perfectly organized: we were taken to a different part of the building to an area with a eucalyptus smell. We were shown the sauna-it was a large sauna , It could hold like 10 people.
We were given our supplements and then told to jog for few blocks around the building and then come into the sauna.
By the time you are done with the run, the niacin has kicked in and given you a nice “flush” skin is red and blood vessels have dilated. Now you’re ready for the sauna.
Everything done here is monitored. The guy supervising us was a Medical Doctor and he recorded weight going in and was always available supervising and answering any questions.
Five hours a day in a sauna is a LONG time- especially with someone like me who is not crazy about sweating constantly.
You were free to come in and out to prevent from getting overheated and get in the shower to cool off.
I brought reading material, I was doing this!
Reactions
X Ray Radiation
For the first couple of days, nothing significant happened except my skin started getting better.
One day as I am leaving the sauna to cool off, I take a look in the mirror and it looks like I’d been in a fight. Both my eyes had black rings like bruises around them.
I asked the attendant what this was and he looked at them and asked me if I had been exposed to many x-rays. I said that yes, I had been a sick kid and had tons of diagnostic procedures and medicines and stuff.
He said : “Ok, get back in there! You’re just running out x-ray radiation”
Came back out about 20 minutes later and the rings were gone.
Medications
I’m sitting in the sauna and I start getting sleepy. More like “anesthesia count down to ten sleepy”
Again, I was concerned, so I asked attendant what the deal was and he said I was likely detoxing from medicines and drugs I’d taken.
Went back in until it cleared up.
Chlorine
One day there were about 5 of us in the sauna and all of a sudden a strong smell of chlorine started. It keeps getting worse until it was so bad it was burning our eyes. We all exited the sauna thinking there was some sort of chlorine spill or something like that.
The attendant asked: “Has any of you worked as a pool maintenance tech?”
We looked around and one guy raised his hand.
The attendant said “Ok! Everyone dismissed for today except for you!” as he pointed to the Pool Tech guy. “Get back in there!”
I was doing this in the mornings when I had the evening shifts at the restaurant and when I worked days, Id try to make it to the sauna in the evenings.
After about 3 weeks, everything started to taper off and I was done.
I was feeling great and there was something different about everything, I felt like I was more awake and aware. And my skin and complexion were fabulous!
Clear Body, Clear Mind
The Sea Org
At some point, the people in charge routed me to talk to someone one in the Sea Org.
It was a small glass office, like the one you are led into when you are buying a car. I was greeted by a man in an impressive looking uniform like Captain Steubing from the “Love Boat”.
He said they had been watching me and my progress and were impressed with my IQ score. He said I stood out among the other people and compared me to this woman we could see through the glass.
He basically ripped her to shreds in front of me, telling me how her life was in chaos and how she had created all of her chaos and that somehow I was different from her.
They basically offered me a job.
One catch:
I had to sign a contract for a “billion years” and I couldn’t be in debt.
Seeing I was already in debt from some of the previous courses, I didn’t qualify. Also a billion years seemed a bit long.
I thanked him and said I would consider it- I was pretty sure it was a solid no, but I didn’t want to tell him that. I was probably intimidated by the uniform.
Healing with Vitamins
This was not an official class or anything, but during my time there, I saw whenever someone was having issues with their body, they would consult with one of the counselors and they would look into a little book: “Earl Mindell’s Vitamin Bible” or see a chiropractor down the road who was apparently a Scientologist.
I used what little I learned and suggested home remedies to my Wendy’s employees and their families and developed a little side gig offering supplements to anyone willing to listen.
The Bottom Line
I know there is a lot of negative press and negativity in general about Scientology, but be clear about this: Scientology changed my life!
I’m not an active Scientologist, and don’t feel like I want to go back. But it definitely shaped me into the person that I am today.
If there is bias against the church in this article, it’s just the way that it’s run. Running an organization like an MLM encourages bad behavior.
I have moved countless times since those days, and the first piece of forwarded mail is usually from a Scientology Org.
I’m not sure I would have taken the steps to make a drastic change and decide to attend chiropractic school had it not been for my brief time in Scientology,
Love,
-Dan
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@ d360efec:14907b5f
2025-05-31 00:36:48 -
@ 81022b27:2b8d0644
2025-05-31 00:25:44I did my chiropractic studies at Life University in Georgia. When I picked schools, I had no idea about chiropractic philosophies or the politics in chiropractic.
I picked Life for two reasons: It was the closest to home (Miami at the time), and it was the first one to get back to me and tell me I was accepted.
My chiropractor in Miami wanted me to attend Palmer College, but that was in Iowa, and it sounded remote and cold. So, hell no.
I was so excited to start my new life that I crammed a U-Haul with all my junk and headed to Marietta.
Once classes started, someone suggested I join clubs to make friends.
I asked around, and there was this club having an upcoming party. It was Spizz Club. Spizz was short for Spizzerinctum, which meant “chiropractic enthusiasm.”
Well, I had a lot of that—plus, there were some attractive girls in that club.
I showed up at the party, which was at a student’s apartment, and got greeted with a long, uncomfortable hug. Do you remember the old cartoon of Pepe Le Pew and the cat? Well, I was the cat.
I grabbed a beer and started mingling. It was one uncomfortably long hug after another. Some made moaning sounds!
Fucking weirdos.
I got invited to a philosophy class while I was at the party. My social calendar wasn’t exactly overflowing, so I went.
Wow! These people were explaining concepts I’d known deep down my entire life, but I was hearing them out loud for the first time.
Deciding to move 700 miles away and change careers was a rash and selfish decision because I was running away.
Running from:
Failure
A failed marriage
Failure at real estate
Failure at finding something I was good at
Failure at being happy
Failure as a student, ten years after high school with no degree.
Here I am, listening to the speakers, and I realized this was different.
Maybe this was MY thing.
Maybe I could be a chiropractor.
Maybe I could help people.
Maybe I could be proud of myself.
Maybe someone could be proud of me.
That night changed me. The weirdos seemed less weird. I made friends, I found my footing.
Chiropractic college was tough, much tougher than I expected. I had always kind of “skated by,” but now I had to put in hard work because I hadn’t been in school full-time for ten years.
I also had never lived the college life, and apparently I was partying too much. We hit the bars to blow off steam after midterms and finals—turns out, there were a lot midterms and finals.
I almost flunked out one quarter, but there was a lot going on. My 85-year-old dad came to visit and was going to stay with me for a bit, then he passed away suddenly.
I had a lot of guilt from that, thinking that I could have done something different and could have stayed around a little longer. That guilt would resurface years later in a Craniosacral therapy session.
I couldn’t fail at this. This was too important. I went to a Hypnotherapist to see if maybe I could get “programmed” to not flunk out. Apparently, it worked.
Funny thing, I worked hard and time passed. We did it. We graduated and made it through.
Look, those brutal study sessions weren’t easy, and almost flunking out scared the hell out of me. I am thankful that Chiropractic passion stuck with me. That Spizz still gets me through some days.
Live Long and Prosper,
-Danny
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@ 81022b27:2b8d0644
2025-05-30 23:46:46How the birth of my grandson is making me re-think my own future
I just became a grandfather. My youngest daughter had a baby boy.
I’m thrilled.
And
I’m scared.
Babies are pure potential Infinite possibilities, all sorts of different paths they could take.
They haven’t drank the Kool-Aid, or in fact any Kool-Aid at all, lol
Will he be gregarious and outgoing?
Will he be shy and introverted?
Will he want to be an artist?
An engineer?
Will he be brave or scared?
Will he be like his grandfather, trying to overcompensate in his later life for being afraid of nearly everything in the early part of his life?
I am thrilled. All the grandparents that I have ever met said to me:
Just wait until you have grandkids, its different
And yes, it is different.
I’m not so worried about the how to take care of the baby-all I have to do is love him.
The other day, I was just holding him and was able to stay in “the love state” for the longest time ever.
(The love state is the goal of a meditation that I do-The goal is to stay “in love” feeling for as long as you can.)
I was able to get to this place so easily with him!
He has also taught me to slow down even more. He is not in a hurry to do anything. His job is to eat, poop and grow.
I feel like I get to savor the time I get with him even more than with my own kids.
I’m Scared His mom has had her share of issues.
She is now a single mom trying to navigate all the responsibilities of being a parent.
I didn’t think she was ready, but here we are.
She doesn’t have her mom to help guide her, but I thank god that she has Christi-my girlfriend. She has been such an incredible support for both Audrey and me.
I’m scared mostly because now my own future is uncertain.
I had my future planned out like where i wanted to retire-the things I wanted to do and now this little guy has me re-thinking all my plans about the future.
Here’s to uncertainty!!
Live Long and Prosper 🖖,
-Dan
Links | The Natural Life | The Intuitive Chiropractor
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@ 81022b27:2b8d0644
2025-05-30 23:11:38Today is Mother’s Day and throughout the day I’ve been texting my friends who are moms and wishing them well on their day.
A buddy of mine sent me a text and said “Happy Mother’s Day, lol!”
Immediately replied back “same to you!”
Then I started thinking: Did he mean that because I am both father and mother to my daughters? Or was it just typical guy behavior (from my era) joking around calling me gay.
Then I got to thinking about how today is tough for my daughters because they lost their mom to cancer over 4 years ago.
I was driving when i got the text and next thing I know tears are streaming down my face. Maybe it has been tough for me too.
These girls have NEEDED their mom on so many occasions! I could never fill those shoes!
I could have really used her help with our youngest daughter. Maybe she could have said ONE thing to her to make her thing twice about un-aliving herself.
Maybe she could’ve shared my grief, or maybe we could’ve just talked about the situation and how we can get our tortured little girl back from her uncomfortable reality.
Full disclosure: My daughters are all adults, and their mother and I were no longer together. We had been divorced for about 8 years when she passed.
When she passed away, I felt like I couldn’t grieve-after all, I was just the ex-husband.
Took me a while to realize that I had lost a family member too. I don’t think I have completely gotten over it, at least not well. There was a lot of anger and resentment in the divorce and over the years we had tried to be civil, and even had holiday celebrations with EVERYONE attending. Come to find out, the new husband hated that arrangement.
Before she passed, we said we still loved each other and said our goodbyes. I told her I would look after our daughters and made sure her mom was ok. Maybe i’m feeling so emotional because I feel like I’ve made a mess of things here or I’m simply not over it yet.
Happy Mother’s Day!
-
@ 81022b27:2b8d0644
2025-05-30 23:02:22I love my job, I really do. Helping people feel better, getting their bodies back in line-it’s why I show up every day.
But some of my clients?
Some of them act like I’m a magician who can fix years of you ignoring their body in one session.
So, here’s the unfiltered truth—what I’d really like to say when they’re sitting there, complaining, not listening, and interfering with their own healing process. Buckle up, because I’m not holding back.
- There’s nothing wrong with you! Just keep getting adjusted regularly, and for God’s sake, stop going to the medical doctor.
- Stop saying you don’t know what happened.
- You didn’t even try it out before; you’re saying it still hurts. Move around a little!
- No, I’m not doing the fucking ring-dinger that you saw someone do on TikTok.
- No, it’s not because you’re old. It’s because you don’t take care of yourself.
- You’re only 35; you’re not allowed to say you’re old.
- No wonder you don’t listen to your body—you can’t shut up for five seconds to listen to anything!
- Yes, like I’ve told you countless times before-the nervous system controls everything, that’s why you feel great after an adjustment.
- No, I don’t really know why that other chiropractor does the “Flying 7” on all their clients
- You’re the problem.
- No, I’m not making it hurt. It hurts already. I’m trying to fix this.
- Your attitude sucks. No wonder everything hurts.
- You’ve been coming to see me for years, but only when something hurts. The best I can do when you’re hurting is get you out of pain. Imagine if you came in when you’re not in pain—maybe we could really accomplish something then! (Oh, yeah—I do tell them this already!)
- You hate your (job/wife/kids) and you wonder why you’re having health issues?
- It’s not arthritis. Your doctor just wants you to shut up about that pain.
- Tell your doctor that I said he doesn’t know what the hell he is talking about!
- You’d be better off if you flushed all those medications down the toilet and started over.
- How’s that surgery worked out for you? What number surgery is that?
- A little bit of exercise isn’t going to kill you.
I know that makes me sound like i’m grumpy all the time, but that’s just not true. Most of my clients think that I’m just there to fix the pain, but I am freeing, directing life force-allowing it to flow freely throughout the body.
“I suffer for my art”
a client said this quote explains what I feel. I think it’s a bit harsh.
What would you say to YOUR people?
Live Long and prosper!
_Dan from http://theintuitivechiropractor.com
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@ c9badfea:610f861a
2025-05-30 22:47:09- Install Saber (it's free and open source)
- Open the app
- Tap + and select New Note
- Explore the tools in the upper toolbar:
- Tap ⬅️ to go back to the main screen
- Tap ⋮ to change the background (e.g. grid, college-ruled, lined, or custom image/PDF)
- Tap 📄 to insert a new page
- Tap 🪟 to view all pages
- Explore the tools in the bottom toolbar:
- Tap the selected pen tool ✒️ to adjust its settings (e.g. size and behavior)
- Tap ✏️ to use the pencil tool
- Tap 🖊️ to use the highlighter
- Tap ⚪️ to change the current color
- Tap 👆 to enter move mode
- Tap ⬅️ to undo, or ➡️ to redo
- Tap ⠪ to export your drawing as a PDF
- Start creating handwritten notes and drawings!
-
@ 84b0c46a:417782f5
2025-05-30 22:17:195/24 nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzpvly86xv0ekl7gar8kfp8glfztvftvwrusjsys8qexwmal3sdz6lqywhwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnrdakhq6tvv5kk2unjdaezumn9wsq3wamnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3wd968gctwd4hjumt9dcqs6amnwvaz7tmev9382tndv5qjqamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fddfczumn0wd68ytnhd9ex2erwv46zu6nsqywhwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnwdaehgu3wwa5hyetydejhgtn2wqq3zamnwvaz7tmwveex2mrp0yhxzursqyfhwumn8ghj7am0wshxummnw3ezumn9wsqzqxk47yl7vwqu0yrv4fljymp4m2vf0gtesmel4cgg638h82rt4hdn6yyejn
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こていたんさんのアイコン
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5/26 nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzpq4np5cygstsu65vsx0ggphrv23kj4z553sh39xwyur08pqvdsqrqyxhwumn8ghj77tpvf6jumt9qywhwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnwdaehgu3wwa5hyetydejhgtn2wqq3vamnwvaz7tmnv4shycmg9ehx7ueww3hkgcteqqspk6e9e9wph23lt7xumuuu90rayzcswp3gz96c3w25raq9r9agw5cnfgve5
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5/27 nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzqxlwemj4760tc2ysgqmqdu5tt68th2er6gn8xrsjkjlhvtff6gtzqyt8wumn8ghj7um9v9exx6pwdehhxtn5dajxz7gpzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumn0wd68ytnzv9hxgqpqlq0lp52xg7uv4wwzuqy9yhtmcpy5v8ad8v7ft9xcwkdncd97h66q0wmawu
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KAZもさん nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzpvly86xv0ekl7gar8kfp8glfztvftvwrusjsys8qexwmal3sdz6lqywhwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnrdakhq6tvv5kk2unjdaezumn9wsq3wamnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3wd968gctwd4hjumt9dcqs6amnwvaz7tmev9382tndv5qjqamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fddfczumn0wd68ytnhd9ex2erwv46zu6nsqywhwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnwdaehgu3wwa5hyetydejhgtn2wqq3zamnwvaz7tmwveex2mrp0yhxzursqyfhwumn8ghj7am0wshxummnw3ezumn9wsqzpk3nll8rr3sj6adsrfrlgjpj4cyn2sg9rmlz9m2djwk5zp2ku80czfr460
5/28 kaijiさん nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzpvly86xv0ekl7gar8kfp8glfztvftvwrusjsys8qexwmal3sdz6lqyxhwumn8ghj77tpvf6jumt9qywhwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnrdakhq6tvv5kk2unjdaezumn9wsqjqamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fddfczumn0wd68ytnhd9ex2erwv46zu6nsqywhwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnwdaehgu3wwa5hyetydejhgtn2wqq3zamnwvaz7tmwveex2mrp0yhxzursqythwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnfw36xzmndduhx6etwqyfhwumn8ghj7am0wshxummnw3ezumn9wsqzpt7w33qv7tlywj0wphremkdft6dpnv3z8mvw0t2pdxcgvlzw6sathjmz0v
マルフォイ nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzpvly86xv0ekl7gar8kfp8glfztvftvwrusjsys8qexwmal3sdz6lqyw8wumn8ghj7umjw3ex2mrp0yhxxttnw3jkcmrpwghxuet5qyxhwumn8ghj77tpvf6jumt9qys8wumn8ghj7un9d3shjtt2wqhxummnw3ezuamfwfjkgmn9wshx5uqpr4mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumn0wd68ytnhd9ex2erwv46zu6nsqyghwumn8ghj7mnxwfjkccte9eshquqpzdmhxue69uhhwmm59ehx7um5wghxuet5qqs8r0frcfwqkgpefhd0knjurekna8ztnq69432f3k00wccd0vcrl5c6qr3gh
5/29 nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzqrec47eremps2u8wvnu6f2sfjg5njhkrxuw9l6r8uzwfzy2gqq2aqyxhwumn8ghj77tpvf6jumt9qywhwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnwdaehgu3wwa5hyetydejhgtn2wqq3vamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwdehhxarj9e3xzmnyqqsp2c6xh22lfj2ccy95lqu584hfpfz0ds7w2llnf4sv2qs445yqcgqmgwq57
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@ a8d1560d:3fec7a08
2025-05-30 22:16:48NIP-XX
Documentation and Wikis with Spaces and Format Declaration
draft
optional
Summary
This NIP introduces a system for collaborative documentation and wikis on Nostr. It improves upon earlier efforts by adding namespace-like Spaces, explicit content format declaration, and clearer separation of article types, including redirects and merge requests.
Motivation
Previous approaches to wiki-style collaborative content on Nostr had two key limitations:
- Format instability – No declared format per event led to breaking changes (e.g. a shift from Markdown to Asciidoc).
- Lack of namespace separation – All articles existed in a global space, causing confusion and collision between unrelated projects.
This NIP addresses both by introducing:
- Spaces – individually defined wikis or documentation sets.
- Explicit per-article format declaration.
- Dedicated event kinds for articles, redirects, merge requests, and space metadata.
Specification
kind: 31055
– Space DefinitionDefines a project namespace for articles.
Tags: -
["name", "<space title>"]
-["slug", "<short identifier>"]
-["description", "<optional description>"]
-["language", "<ISO language code>"]
-["license", "<license text or SPDX ID>"]
Content: (optional) full description or README for the space.
kind: 31056
– ArticleAn article in a specific format belonging to a defined space.
Tags: -
["space", "<slug>"]
-["title", "<article title>"]
-["format", "markdown" | "asciidoc" | "wikitext" | "html"]
-["format-version", "<format version>"]
(optional) -["prev", "<event-id>"]
(optional) -["summary", "<short change summary>"]
(optional)Content: full body of the article in the declared format.
kind: 31057
– RedirectRedirects from one article title to another within the same space.
Tags: -
["space", "<slug>"]
-["from", "<old title>"]
-["to", "<new title>"]
Content: empty.
kind: 31058
– Merge RequestProposes a revision to an article without directly altering the original.
Tags: -
["space", "<slug>"]
-["title", "<article title>"]
-["base", "<event-id>"]
-["format", "<format>"]
-["comment", "<short summary>"]
(optional)Content: proposed article content.
Format Guidelines
Currently allowed formats: -
markdown
-asciidoc
-wikitext
-html
Clients MUST ignore formats they do not support. Clients MAY apply stricter formatting rules.
Client Behavior
Clients: - MUST render only supported formats. - MUST treat
space
as a case-sensitive namespace. - SHOULD allow filtering, browsing and searching within Spaces. - SHOULD support revision tracking viaprev
. - MAY support diff/merge tooling forkind: 31058
.
Examples
Space Definition
json { "kind": 31055, "tags": [ ["name", "Bitcoin Docs"], ["slug", "btc-docs"], ["description", "Developer documentation for Bitcoin tools"], ["language", "en"], ["license", "MIT"] ], "content": "Welcome to the Bitcoin Docs Space." }
Markdown Article
json { "kind": 31056, "tags": [ ["space", "btc-docs"], ["title", "Installation Guide"], ["format", "markdown"] ], "content": "# Installation\n\nFollow these steps to install the software..." }
Asciidoc Article
json { "kind": 31056, "tags": [ ["space", "btc-docs"], ["title", "RPC Reference"], ["format", "asciidoc"] ], "content": "= RPC Reference\n\nThis section describes JSON-RPC calls." }
Wikitext Article
json { "kind": 31056, "tags": [ ["space", "btc-docs"], ["title", "Block Structure"], ["format", "wikitext"] ], "content": "== Block Structure ==\n\nThe structure of a Bitcoin block is..." }
Redirect
json { "kind": 31057, "tags": [ ["space", "btc-docs"], ["from", "Getting Started"], ["to", "Installation Guide"] ], "content": "" }
Merge Request
json { "kind": 31058, "tags": [ ["space", "btc-docs"], ["title", "Installation Guide"], ["base", "d72fa1..."], ["format", "markdown"], ["comment", "Added step for testnet"] ], "content": "# Installation\n\nNow includes setup instructions for testnet users." }
Acknowledgements
This proposal builds on earlier ideas for decentralized wikis and documentation within Nostr, while solving common issues related to format instability and lack of project separation.
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@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b
2025-05-30 21:48:21Originalni tekst na novimagazin.rs. / Autor: Mijat Lakićević
Razgovarao: Mijat Lakićević
Do januara ove godine Lazar Stojković je radio na UC Berkeley School of Information na poziciji asistenta Mortena Hansena, jednog od najistaknutijih profesora menadžmenta u svetu. U martu se, međutim, odlučuje da napusti akademsku karijeru i zauzima poziciju glavnog dizajnera proizvoda u jednom novom start-apu u San Francisku. Ono što za sada o tome može da kaže jeste da je okupljen “fantastičan tim” (o čemu, recimo, govori podatak da je “prethodna kompanija koju je osnovao naš CEO 2013. godine prodata za preko 200 miliona dolara”) u koji su investirale neke od najznačajnijih američkih “venture capital” firmi: Founder Collective (investirali u Uber, BuzzFeed, Periscope, IFTTT, Venmo, Vimeo, itd), General Catalyst (investirali u Airbnb, Snapchat, itd.); Formation 8 (investirali u Oculus). Pored toga, međutim, naš sagovornik nije izgubio sve veze sa Srbijom, naprotiv; trenutno kao mentor u beogradskom ICT Habu, ali i na druge načine, pomaže razvoj start-ap kompanija i povezivanje naše tehnološke zajednice sa Silicijumskom dolinom.
U SAD ima mnogo naših ljudi, naročito u oblasti visokih tehnologija, ali povratne sprege nema. Dačić je pre dve godine bio u SAD na investicionoj konferenciji, kakvi su efekti?
Efekti su svakako dobri za Dačića i pripadnike državne delegacije koja je turistički obišla Zapadnu obalu. Ni Majkrosoft nije loše prošao, jer mu je tadašnji predsednik Vlade usput ostavio još novca srpskih poreskih obveznika. Sve u svemu, ceo taj put mogao bi da se okvalifikuje više kao “shopping trip” za trošenje novca, nego kao investiciona konferencija za njegovo privlačenje. Osim toga, sam događaj u San Francisku bio je amaterski organizovan – niti je imao bilo kakav publicitet u lokalnim medijima, niti je postojala vidljivost u ovdašnjoj tehnološkoj zajednici.
Veću korist od toga donela je majska poseta mojih prijatelja iz 500 Start-ups, drugog najboljeg start-ap akceleratora u svetu, zvezdarskom ICT Habu. Osim predavanja koje su održali start-apima u Beogradu i Novom Sadu, njih trojica su tom prilikom odlučili da 500 Start-ups investira u TruckTrack Vuka Nikolića. Kasnije se jedan od njih odlučio i da kupi stan u Beogradu, jer se potpuno zaljubio u atmosferu srpske prestonice. To su direktne strane investicije, a ne politički marketing.
Što se povratne sprege između tehnološke dijaspore i Srbije tiče, ne bih se složio da ona uopšte ne postoji, ona je samo u skladu sa opštim privrednim okruženjem u zemlji.
Kakva je na osnovu vašeg iskustva ta poslovna klima?
Poslovnu klimu u Srbiji karakterišu: neefikasnost javne uprave i gomila nepotrebne birokratije; arhaičan sistem obrazovanja, uglavnom neprilagođen potrebama tržišta, koji ne proizvodi dovoljno kvalifikovane radne snage; sporost sudova i proizvoljno tumačenje čak i onih relativno savremenih zakona. Uvek se setim onih momaka koji su završili u zatvoru zbog affiliate sajta i dečka kome je tržišni inspektor uručio pozamašnu kaznu za obavljanje delatnosti za koju nije registrovan zbog 10 evra koje je dotični zaradio za godinu dana od specijalizovanog bloga o parfemima. Ako postoji nerazumevanje za bilo kakvo tehnološko preduzetništvo, čak i na tom najnižem nivou, šta onda reći za ozbiljnije poslove?
Kad ste već pomenuli visoke tehnologije, u Srbiji se mnogo govori da je to naša šansa, primer koji ste pomenuli to demantuje.
I ne samo to. U Srbiji nema propisa koji bi potpomogli dalji razvoj tehnološke industrije. Na primer, Srbija još uvek nema pravni ekvivalent “safe harbor” stavki iz američkog Digital milenijum kopirajt akta (Digital Millenium Copyright Act – DMCA), koji je na snazi još od 1998. godine, a predstavlja zakonski mehanizam zaštite za kreatore digitalnih proizvoda od pokušaja drugih da zloupotrebe njihove mobilne aplikacije.
Sa druge strane, ima mnogo propisa koji sprečavaju bilo kakav napredak u određenim oblastima, u čemu ubedljivo prednjači Narodna banka Srbije. Moj omiljeni primer čak nije ni ceo onaj višegodišnji cirkus sa PayPalom koji je nastao zbog zakona o deviznom poslovanju, već zabrana NBS da domaća pravna lica imaju bilo kakve veze sa bitkoinom. Čisto da stavimo stvari u perspektivu, dotična tehnološka inovacija koju po značaju mnogi ovde upoređuju sa World Wide Webom, počinje polako da menja kompletan dosadašnji finansijski sistem i, sa investicijama od blizu 360 miliona dolara, samo od početka ove godine predstavlja ubedljivo najbrže rastuću tehnološku oblast u svetu kada je reč o investiranje u start-apove. Naravno, od toga ni dinar neće završiti u Srbiji.
Posledice?
Nerazumevanje da u današnjem globalizovanom svetu niko ko se bavi tehnologijom jednostavno ne mora da trpi sve ovo gore pobrojano. Zahvaljujući poslovanju koje nije vezano za fizičku lokaciju, svako ima slobodu da bilo kada želi izmesti svoj biznis gde god poželi, a sa njim i kompletne poreske i druge prihode za zemlju u kojoj je biznis registrovan. I ljudi to i rade. Čim se pojave bilo kakvi prihodi, gotovo svi koji imaju veze sa tehnologijom – od frilensera do preduzetnika – Srbiji se zahvale na saradnji, zatvore firmu tu i otvore preko Interneta kompaniju u Delaveru, Singapuru ili negde drugde, jer im jednostavno ne pada na pamet da finansiraju postojeći sistem u Srbiji. Ubrzo nakon što se biznis izmesti iz Srbije, dobar deo shvati da ni oni ne moraju baš da budu tu, nakon čega sledi emigracija.
Najalarmantnija stvar u vezi sa ovim poslednjim je što se uopšte ne radi o običnim inženjerima, koji ionako odlaze u ogromnom broju već skoro 25 godina i čija svaka kupljena karta u jednom pravcu, bar u slučaju IT stručnjaka, Srbiju košta između 50 i 100 hiljada evra, jer je to cena njihovog obrazovanja. Ne, ovde je reč o preduzetnicima koji pokreću nove poslove, stvaraju vrednost, otvaraju nova radna mesta. A svako radno mesto u tehnološkoj industriji u proseku kreira još 4,3 druga radna mesta u privredi, dok, na primer, svako radno mesto u proizvodnji kreira samo 1,4 druga mesta. Njihov egzodus – koji se, bar sudeći po krugu ljudi koje poznajem, samo ubrzava poslednjih godina – ne samo da dugoročno znači ogroman finansijski gubitak za zemlju, već predstavlja i svojevrsnu nacionalnu katastrofu.
Dakle, povratne sprege nema, jer se oni ne vraćaju u Srbiju?
Zbog svih ovih stvari o kojima sam govorio retko kome ko je iole profesionalno ostvaren u inostranstvu uopšte pada na pamet da se vraća i pokreće bilo kakav biznis iz Srbije. Umesto toga, ljudi se odlučuju za nešto drugo: osnivaju kompanije tamo gde je poslovna klima dobra, što znači ne u Srbiji, a onda Srbiju koriste kao neku vrstu domaće autsorsing destinacije. Odnos cena-kvalitet tu je zaista odličan. Na primer, za godišnju platu jednog dobrog softverskog inženjera u San Francisku, u Beogradu se može zaposliti ceo tim.
Naravno, američke kompanije koje su osnovali naši ljudi koriste to kao “tajno oružje”, pa se tako, na primer, ceo razvojni tim veoma uspešnog start-apa Frejm iz Silicijumske doline nalazi u Nišu, jer je odatle njegov osnivač Nikola Božinović, koji inače već gotovo 20 godina živi u Americi. Takvih primera ima mnogo. Poznajem nekolicinu ljudi koji su potrošili bukvalno milione dolara na autsorsing u Srbiji tokom poslednjih desetak godina. Oni bi vrlo rado investirali u srpske start-apove, i ne samo oni, ali je ponuda još uvek jako tanka, poslovna klima nikome ne uliva poverenje, a start-ap ekosistem je u ranoj fazi razvoja, pa do tih transakcija još uvek ne dolazi u nekom značajnijem broju.
Start-ap eko sistem. Šta pod tim podrazumevate?
To znači, prvo, konačan prestanak maštanja o reindustrijalizaciji koju će doneti neki krupni investitori iz inostranstva. Oni se ionako, bar u novijoj istoriji Srbije, nikada nisu pojavljivali bez debelih subvencija i ekspresnog proglašavanja njihovih ugovora državnom tajnom. Drugo, to znači prepoznavanje resursa kojima raspolažemo, dakle pametnih mladih ljudi koji se bave tehnologijom, s jedne strane, i pružanje tim ljudima najboljih uslova za život i rad, sa druge, umesto da im se i jedno i drugo na svakom koraku otežava.
Na primer, šta bi se desilo kada bismo u Novom Sadu umesto brojnih postojećih firmi koje se bave autsorsing uslugama imali stotinjak kompanija fokusiranih na proizvode kao što je Eipix? Odgovor: imali bismo oko 15.000 novih radnih mesta, veoma bogatu prestonicu Pokrajine, visok rast životnog standarda u tom delu zemlje i mnogo naplaćenog poreza.
Ta prilika neće trajati večito. Procenat mladih preduzetnika kojima je jedini cilj da odu iz zemlje, jer u njoj ne vide nikakvu perspektivu, iz godine u godinu raste. Strani investicioni fondovi bukvalno otimaju najperspektivnije nove srpske start-apove. Na primer, bugarski Eleven raspolaže sa desetak miliona evra kapitala, mahom iz evropskih fondova. U okruženju koje im ne nudi baš ništa osim problema, tridesetak najzanimljivijih srpskih start-apova prodalo je svoje vlasničke udele Elevenu uz obavezu preseljenja u Sofiju, ruku na srce, uglavnom privremenog. Ko zna koliko će novih kompanija, koje bi mogle da budu novi Nordeusi, Srbija zbog toga izgubiti u korist svog istočnog suseda?
I vi spadate u grupu mladih ljudi koje opisujete. Opisali ste i razloge zbog kojih se odlazi. Ipak, konkretno, zašto ste vi otišli iz Srbije?
Kao što ste rekli, otišao sam iz svih onih na početku ovog razgovora navedenih razloga, plus opšta društvena klima koja je, nažalost, izuzetno nezdrava. Iako ima solidan potencijal da bude lepo mesto za život i posao, zemlja u kojoj sam rođen postala je udžbenički primer negativne društvene selekcije i jednostavno nije zemlja u kojoj želim da živim i u kojoj bih jednog dana trebalo da odgajam svoju decu.
Šta ste pronašli u Americi?
U Zalivskoj oblasti San Franciska pronašao sam jedno napredno, stimulativno, kosmopolitsko okruženje, zagledano u budućnost. To je neki jedinstveni koktel globalizacije, hakerskog idealizma, hipi etike, mešavine vrednosti koje kreira tehnološka industrija sa starim kapitalizmom Zapadne obale, umetničke ekscentričnosti San Franciska, tipično kalifornijske opuštenosti i vere u to da ovde svojim znanjem svet možemo da učinimo boljim mestom. Osim toga, Zalivska oblast, tj. Silicijumska dolina, ima ubedljivo najveću koncentraciju pametnih ljudi na jednom mestu u celom svetu.
Filozofija razvoja u SAD, u poređenju sa Srbijom, ako to uopšte ima smisla?
Poređenje nema previše smisla, jer su filozofije poslovanja i poslovna klima dijametralno suprotni između ove dve zemlje. Biznis je u Americi nacionalni sport broj jedan. Čak i ljudi koji rade relativno slabo plaćene poslove, trude se da imaju svoj mali investicioni portfelj hartija od vrednosti i svi prate kretanje cene akcija na berzi. Kada govorimo o preduzetništvu, kapital je dostupan za bilo koju dobru ideju. Start-apovi se ne fokusiraju toliko na profit na kraće staze, već teže brzom rastu. Tako nije ništa neobično da investitori u neki neprofitabilni biznis investiraju i po stotinjak miliona dolara. A desi se i, recimo, čak 1,2 milijarde kao u slučaju Snapchata, iako ta firma do sada nije napravila nijedan cent prihoda, jer znaju da će novac sam po sebi kasnije doći ako se napravi proizvod koji ima vrednost za veliki broj ljudi.
U Srbiji ništa od gore nabrojanog nije slučaj. Korporativizacija praktično ne postoji, što je posledica skandalozno visokih troškova osnivanja i vođenja akcionarskog preduzeća kao forme privrednog društva. Poređenja radi, u Americi osnivanje korporacije košta 150-300 dolara, završava se brzo preko Interneta, ne postoje tekući troškovi ako nema prihoda i zato maltene svi imaju registrovanu neku firmu. Pošto su korporacije u Srbiji za domaće privrednike skupa egzotika, većina ekonomske aktivnosti ide kroz preduzetnike – “sole proprietorship” – i društva sa ograničenom odgovornošću. Posledica toga je da je Beogradska berza danas potpuno irelevantan faktor, tako da je i interesovanje građana za investiranje tim putem praktično nepostojeće. To dalje vodi ka tome da se imućniji ljudi uglavnom odlučuju za investiranje u nekretnine, što je jedan od najkonzervativnijih pristupa investicijama i donosi najmanju dobit. Što se pokretanja novog posla tiče, u Srbiji to u većini slučajeva znači pozajmljivanje novca od PRP – porodica, rodbina i prijatelji – ili odlazak u banku po kredit. “Venture capital” ne postoji, što srpske firme onda stavlja pred izazov da moraju što pre da budu profitabilne, jer jednom kada početni kapital nestane – “game over”. Niko ne razmišlja o agresivnom rastu koji se kasnije može pretvoriti u masivne prihode i tržišnu dominaciju, jer su fokusirani na to kako da plate PDV sledećeg meseca za prodatu robu ili usluge koje još uvek nisu ni naplatili. Zbog toga svi otvaraju pekare, kafiće i kioske brze hrane: promet kreće odmah i “cash flow” se brzo stabilizuje. Zbog svega toga Srbija ima primitivnu ekonomiju koja je u proseku oko pola veka iza razvijenog sveta.
Predlagali ste pre dve godine da se Srbija orijentiše ka razvoju robotike, civilnih bespilotnih letelica i 3D štampe. Niko vas nije čuo. Šta se desilo u međuvremenu u tim sferama, da li je sad kasno za to, šta su nove prilike, ako ih ima?
Sva tri i dalje stoje kao ogromne prilike za razvoj, jer će potražnja u srednjem roku biti toliko veća od ponude da je i dalje u pitanju fantastična biznis prilika. Druge dve nove prilike su Bitcoin i Virtual Reality.
Bitcoin i kriptovalute – koje, kao što rekoh na početku, nijedno pravno lice u Srbiji ne sme ni da takne, zahvaljujući uobičajenoj kratkovidosti Narodne banke Srbije. Blockchain kao “open source” projekat već obećava da postane osnova svih finansijskih transakcija u budućnosti, i ne samo njih, a već sada počinje polako da ubija praistorijske biznise koji se oslanjaju na skupe informacione transakcije, kao što je na primer Vestern union.
Virtual Reality je drugi veliki talas tehnološke inovacije koji nama kao čovečanstvu, nakon tridesetak godina iščekivanja i razočaranja, konačno stiže zahvaljujući tehnologijama kao što su Oculus, u vlasništvu Facebooka; Magic Leap, glavni investitor Gugl; HoloLens, Majkrosoftovo čedo, pa čak i Cardboard, Guglov genijalni projekat za upotrebu pametnih telefona kao VR naočara. Ovaj mega trend će dugoročno potpuno promeniti gotovo celokupnu ljudsku interakciju sa mašinama, od toga kako radimo do toga kako se zabavljamo u slobodno vreme. Rekao bih da su startne pozicije što se platformi tiče već zauzete – bar za prvo vreme, jer su pomenute korporacije potrošile milijarde dolara na istraživanje i razvoj tih tehnologija – ali postoji ogroman prazan prostor što se tiče kreiranja sadržaja za njih. Narednih godina će se na tome praviti imperije.
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@ c9badfea:610f861a
2025-05-30 21:42:40Separators
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@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b
2025-05-30 20:58:03Originalni tekst na bitcoin-balkan.com.
Pregled sadržaja
- Šta je blockchain?
- Kako mogu da saznam više o Bitcoin-u?
Ukoliko niste pročitali naš uvodni tekst o Bitcoin-u, i zašto vam je važno da to učinite, onda prvo pročitajte: Šta je Bitcoin i kako on može da nam pomogne?
Bitcoin, sa velikim B na početku, odnosi se na mrežu računara koji održavaju knjigu stanja na akauntima bitcoin digitalne valute, slično kao što banke održavaju knjigu stanja na računima dolara, eura ili neke druge valute. Bitcoin softver, odnosno protokol, takođe omogućava korisnicima da putem interneta pošalju bitcoin-e sa svog akaunta na drugi akaunt, slično PayPal-u ili Venmo-u, ali bez kompanije koja pruža uslugu prenosa. Bitcoin softver je otvorenog koda, tako da svako može da ga pokrene na svom računaru i da se pridružiti mreži.
Najbolji način da se razume kako Bitcoin funkcioniše “iznutra” je da ga zamislimo kao finansijski sistem.
Centralne banke i vlade proizvode i distribuiraju novac pozajmljujući ga ljudima, i trošeći ga na oružje, puteve i socijalne programe. Ovaj sistem se naziva sistemom zasnovanom na dugovima, jer svaki put kada banka da zajam, stvara se nova valuta koja ranije nije postojala. Ova valuta ima vrednost jer dug koji ju je stvorio ima vrednost: primalac zajma obećava da će otplatiti svoj dug banci, plus kamate.
Kad god banka odobri kredit, ona stvara novu valutu. Ovo takodje važi i kada podignete hipoteku ili kredit za auto. Takođe se primenjuje i kada Američke Federalne Rezerve kupuju državne obveznice od vlade Sjedinjenih Država. U svakom od ovih slučajeva, banka šalje novonastalu valutu primaocu zajma. Primaoc zajma obećava banci da će u budućnosti vratiti tu valutu, plus kamate. Međutim, ulaz nove valute u sistem znači i da opada vrednost postojeće valute koja je u opticaju. To se dešava kroz proces koji se obično naziva inflacija.
Da bi imali koristi od pogodnih usluga koje nude banke, poput kreditnih kartica i digitalnih transfera novca, normalni ljudi i preduzeća obično novac drže na bankovnim računima. Svaka banka poseduje svoju knjigu sa računima svih svojih klijenata.
Banke su neophodne da bi omogućile digitalna plaćanja koja vršimo svakodnevno, jer su nam potrebne pouzdane strane koje bi proverile da li se sav računovodstveni sistem sabira. U suprotnom, bilo bi lako da neko uradi “copy-paste“ jednog dela digitalnog novca i da ga potroši dva puta, ili da doda par nula na stanje svog računa.
Sada razumemo nekoliko ključnih tačaka o trenutnom sistemu zasnovanom na dugu: banke proizvode novu valutu svaki put kad pozajmljuju novac, a većina ljudi svoj novac čuva u bankama koje im nude pogodnosti.
Bitcoin je malo drugačiji. Hajde da započnemo ovo putovanje sa pitanjem.
Šta ako bi svi posedovali knjigu stanja na računima, baš kao i banka?
Umesto da banke poseduju po jednu knjigu depozita svojih klijenata, šta ako svi poseduju istu knjigu, sa detaljnim opisima svih stanja na računima svih učesnika u ekonomiji? O privatnosti ne morate da brinete ni na trenutak – to ćemo objasniti kasnije.
Hajde da vidimo kako bi transakcija mogla da se izvrši koristeći ovakav bankarski sistem. Recimo da Ana želi da plati Davidu 10 digitalnih „novčića“. Ona tu transakciju zapisuje u e-mail, potpisuje je digitalno kako bi svi bili sigurni da e-mail dolazi od stvarne Ane, i šalje ga svima ostalima. Kada ostali prime taj e-mail, oni ažuriraju svoje knjige, tako što skinu 10 novčića sa Aninog računa i dodaju 10 novčića na Davidov račun.
Zašto bi se neko trudio da evidentira transakciju u svojoj knjizi?
Recimo da će prva osoba koja izvrši sledeće korake dobiti 5 novčića:
- Proverom da li je prava Ana potpisala transakciju
- Proverom da li Ana ima dovoljno sredstava na svom računu da plati Davidu 10 novčića
- Zapisivanje transakcije ukoliko ispunjava uslove 1) i 2)
Primetićete da se ovo mnogo razlikuje od trenutnog monetarnog sistema. U novom sistemu morate da imate novčiće da biste mogli da ih date nekom drugom. Ne postoje banke sa posebnim privilegijama koje mogu da stvore valutu davanjem zajma.
Umesto da dozvoljava samo maloj grupi bankara da prave nove valute, novi sistem omogućava svima da kreiraju novu valutu ako pružaju korisnu uslugu mreži: verifikovanje i evidentiranje transakcija između ljudi. Nazvaćemo ovo nagradom za potvrđivanje.
Kako se svi slože oko pravila sistema? Ona su kodirana u softverskom protokolu otvorenog koda. To znači da svako može besplatno da preuzme pravila sistema sa interneta i da počne da ih koristi za zaradu valute u sistemu. Ako svi koriste isti skup pravila, njihove knjige će se sinhronizovati, jer će prihvatiti i odbiti potpuno iste transakcije.
- Otvoreni kod = svako može da preuzme kod i da ga pročita
- Softverski protokol = skup pravila napisanih u kodu
Kako zaustaviti ljude koji pokušavaju da prevare sistem da bi zaradili “nagradu za potvrdu”?
Recimo da Boris i Marko žele da se obogate – oni bi mogli jedan drugom da plaćaju po jedan novčić u krug, vodeći računa da neko od njih prvi zabeleži transakciju kako bi mogli da zahtevaju nagradu za potvrdu. Pomoću ove šeme oni bi u osnovi mogli da stvore (odštampaju) novu valutu, kad god oni to požele!
Softverski protokol to zaustavlja zahtevajući da osoba koja validira transakciju uradi neki „posao“ sa računarom kako bi je zabeležila. Ovo osigurava da računari moraju da troše energiju za zabeležavanje transakcija, pa bi u tom slučaju varanje sistema bilo veoma skupo. Borisova i Markova šema varanja sistema više nema finansijskog smisla. Da bismo demonstrirali ovaj proces, pogledajmo Filipa i njegov C-Bot računar. Filip je na svoj računar instalirao Bitcoin protokol, koji predstavlja Bitcoin-ov softverski protokol otvorenog koda koji sadrži pravila Bitcoin sistema.
Kako C-Bot Verifikuje Transakcije
Korak 1: Slušanje transakcija
Prvo, C-Bot sluša transakcije (skraćeno “txn”) koje Ana, Boris, Marko i David emituju putem interneta.
Korak 2: Stvara “Heš”
Drugo, C-Bot će prikupiti sledeće delove podataka:
- Sve Bitcoin transakcije koje ljudi šalju
- Tajni broj (objasnićemo kasnije)
- Nonce – neki slučajan broj
C-Bot sve ovo stavlja u heš mašinu. Mašina za heširanje uzima sve ove podatke i proizvodi 256 bitova (bitovi su 1 i 0) koji se jedinstveno uklapaju u te podatke, nazvane ‘heš’. To heširanje je poput otiska prsta podataka. Uvek ćete dobiti isti heš sa istim ulaznim podacima. Mašina za heširanje je takođe jednosmerna: lako je stvoriti heš od nekih podataka, ali ne možete da stavite heš u mašinu i da vratite ulazne podatke.
C-Bot će iznova isprobavati svoju heš mašinu sa drugim nonce-om (slučajnim brojem). Svaki put, on će proveriti da li je mašina proizvela heš za koji Bitcoin softverski protokol kaže da je tačan.
Ovaj proces pronalaženja heša troši puno vremena i energije. Mašina za heširanje je jednosmerna, tako da C-Bot ne može tek tako da stavi ‘tačan’ heš u mašinu i otkrije ulazne podatke. Svaki računar na Bitcoin mreži takođe prolazi kroz ovaj proces pokušavajući da pronađe ‘ispravan’ heš.
Ukoliko bi ovi računari uspeli da pronađu ‘ispravan’ heš bez velikog trošenja energije, mogli bi da prevare sistem. Dva računara bi mogla da prosleđuju transakcije u krug, zarađujući bitcoin-e svaki put kada bi potvrdili transakciju.
Korak 3: Pronalaženje Ispravnog Heša
C-Bot konačno pronalazi heš koji zadovoljava pravila Bitcoin protokola koristeći sve nedavne transakcije. Sada ovaj blok podataka šalje na druge računare. Blok se sastoji od nedavnih transakcija, nonce-a i tajnog broja. Ti drugi računari stavljaju sve ove podatke kroz istu heš mašinu za sebe, da bi proverili da li je heširanje tog C-Bota tačno. S obzirom da znamo da računari ne mogu da varaju u ovoj igri, znamo da je C-Bot morao da izvrši neka izračunavanja sa svojom heš mašinom da bi pronašao ispravan heš.
Heš bloka C-Bota koji je poslat, sada postaje tajni broj koji ulazi u izračunavanje sledećeg bloka. Budući da heš svakog bloka u ‘blockchain-u’ bitcoin-a koristi heš poslednjeg bloka kao ulaz, bila bi potrebna apsurdna količina energije da se prepiše istorija transakcija (lanac blokova, eng. the blockchain)
Budući da se svačija stanja bitcoin-a zasnivaju na transakcijama na i sa njihovih računa, to takođe onemogućava izmenu bilo čijih stanja bitcoin-a.
Čitav ovaj proces poznat je pod nazivom rudarenje bitcoin-a. Svaki računar na mreži pokušava da proba nove podatke kroz heš mašinu, bilione puta u sekundi.
Šta je blockchain?
Blockchain predstavlja istoriju Bitcoin transakcija, koja omogućava bilo kome da utvrdi svoje Bitcoin stanje.
- ‘Block – Blok’ = Grupa Bitcoin transakcija, nonce-a i heša prethodnog bloka
- ‘Chain – Lanac’ = Heš svakog bloka takođe koristi heš prethodnog bloka kao ulaz. Ovo povezuje podatke svakog bloka sa svakim drugim blokom, stvarajući chain – lanac.
Na blockchain-u, prava imena nisu povezana sa bitcoin-ima. Bitcoin-i su povezani samo sa slučajnim nizom brojeva i slova poznatim kao ‘javni ključ’. Ovo korisnike Bitcoin-a i njihova stanja čini poprilično anonimnima za sve koji vode knjigu.
Kada posedujete bitcoin-e, vi imate password za otključavanje vaših bitcoin bankovnih računa. Ovi računi postoje na hiljadama računara širom sveta koji pokreću Bitcoin protokol.
Kako mogu da saznam više o Bitcoin-u?
Ovaj članak vam je dao razumevanje o tome kako funkcioniše Bitcoin protokol i kako se osiguravaju njegova neverovatna svojstva.
Ako želite da saznate više, preporučujem vam ove izvore:
Ako vam se sviđa moj rad, molim vas da ga podelite sa svojim prijateljima i porodicom. Cilj mi je da svima pružim pogled u ekonomiju i na to kako ona utiče na njihov život.
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@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b
2025-05-30 20:23:47Originalni tekst na bitcoin-balkan.com.
Pregled sadržaja
- Pojedinac je Suveren
- Odgovornost je Programirana
Postoji izreka među bitcoinerima, koja, kako vreme prolazi, postaje sve istinitija i očiglednija: Ti ne menjaš Bitcoin. Bitcoin menja tebe.
Zašto je to tako? U početku nisam bio siguran kako da odgovorim na ovo pitanje; Jednostavno sam znao da je to istina. Razlozi za to ostali su neka vrsta misterije za mene. Da, Bitcoin je neverovatno otporan na promene. I da, zdrav novac smanjuje vaše vremenske preference. To je definitivno veliki deo toga. Takođe postoji istorijska tendencija ka bogaćenju, pa bi bogatstvo i ekonomska sloboda, koje dolaze sa tim, mogli biti drugi deo.
Novac, međutim, nije uvek blagoslov. On teži da pojača i dobre i loše osobine. Takođe ima moć da korumpira, i ima potencijal da izludi ljude. Ako niste pažljivi, ono što je započelo kao iznenadno bogatstvo, uskoro se može pretvoriti u napitak ega koji vas napije, i koji se završava sindromom Bitcoin Derangement-a.
Već postoji dosta tekstova o kratkim vremenskim preferencijama i bogatstvu, zbog čega želim da se usredsredim na treću stvar koju vam Bitcoin nameće: odgovornost.
Pojedinac je Suveren
Cela ideja Bitcoin-a je uklanjanje posrednika iz jednačine. Pouzdane treće strane su sigurnosne rupe i ukoliko ne želimo da ponovimo greške iz prošlosti, naša je kolektivna odgovornost da te sigurnosne rupe eliminišemo kad god i gde god možemo. Bitcoin omogućava eliminisanje pouzdanih trećih strana jer se sam uspostavlja odozdo prema gore, umesto da se kreira odozgo prema dole. U Bitcoin-u vaš suverenitet može biti apsolutan.
Bitcoin naglašava suverenitet pojedinca, kako u teoriji, tako i u praksi. Omogućava ekonomskim akterima da slobodno skladište i razmenjuju vrednosti, ne zahtevajući ništa osim validnog kriptografskog potpisa. Identitet grupe, pol, boja kože, starost, politička ili verska pripadnost – sve je irelevantno u očima protokola. Ako vaša transakcija ima validan potpis, Bitcoin će vas shvatiti ozbiljno. Bez obzira da li ste osoba, pas ili borbeni helikopter.
Baš kao što se intersekcionalnost rešava fokusiranjem na pojedinca, problem pouzdanih trećih strana rešava se fokusiranjem na pojedinačne čvorove. Uklanjanjem socijalnog i političkog identiteta, ostaje pojedinac. Uklonite pouzdane treće strane i spoljne izvore istine, i ostaje samosuvereni čvor. I baš kao što je ljudsko dostojanstvo nepovredivo, nepovrediva je i samopotvrđujuća istina koju predstavlja vaš Bitcoin čvor, eng. Bitcoin node. Ako bi spoljni autoritet mogao da se umeša u istinu vašeg čvora, cela poenta Bitcoin-a bila bi sporna.
“Die Würde des Menschen ist unantastbar.” – Ljudsko dostojanstvo je nepovredivo
Artikel 1 des Grundgesetzes für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland – Član 1. Osnovnog zakona Savezne Republike Nemačke
Sve se svodi na pojedinačne čvorove. Stoga, se sve svodi na pojedince koji upravljaju tim čvorovima.
Odgovornost je Programirana
Postoji razlog zašto bitcoineri govore o „putovanju“ niz zečju rupu. Jedini način da uđete u Bitcoin je da započnete sa malim ulaganjem, i postepeno se poboljšavate. Nije ni lako ni komforno, ali je i neophodno. Ne možete sve uraditi „ispravno“ prvog dana. Izazovi su preveliki, paradigma promena je previše radikalna, previše kompromisa, a pitanja previše detaljna.
Shodno tome, moj savet prijateljima i porodici ostaje isti: počnite da skupljate sats-ove već danas. To možda u ovim okolnostima i nije savršen savet za sve, ali u mojim očima je savršen samo iz sledećeg razloga: primorava vas da napravite prvi korak, a to je da uzmete nekoliko sats-ova na svoje ime.
Jednom kada steknete nešto bitcoin-a, ubacili ste sebe u igru. A kad jednom udjete u igru, na putu ste da postanete sve više samouvereniji. Na putu ste da preuzmete odgovornost za svoje finansije, svoju ušteđevinu, svoju budućnost i, možda pomalo iznenađujuće, za budućnost Bitcoina.
Zvuči veličanstveno? Dozvolite mi da objasnim: naučićete da zapravo ne posedujete bitcoin-e ukoliko ne držite svoje ključeve. Saznaćete da ne možete biti sigurni da je ono što zapravo držite bitcoin, osim ako svoje transakcije ne potvrdite svojim čvorom. Saznaćete da je Bitcoin šta god vi odlučite da jeste, da vrednost bitcoin-a ne dolazi spolja već iznutra, i da maksimalna korisnost u svetu Bitcoin-a zahteva prihvatanje maksimalne odgovornosti.
Osnovna stvarnost kako Bitcoin mreža funkcioniše, u kombinaciji sa sve većim brojem izveštaja o ovom efektu – lična transformacija ostvarena prihvatanjem Bitcoin Standarda – tera me da verujem da nije samo mesec ono što je programirano, već i prihvatanje odgovornosti takođe.
Budući da je bitcoin dizajniran da radi zauvek, koliko god iskustva da imate u igri, uskoro ćete imati veliku količinu. Kako raste kupovna moć vaše bitcoin gomile, tako će da rase i vaš podsticaj da postanete prvoklasni građanin Bitcoina. Želećeš da naučiš kako da se staraš o sebi. Želećeš da naučiš kako da pokreneš sopstveni čvor.
To prevazilazi mantre „nisu tvoji ključevi, nije tvoj bitcoin“ i „nije tvoj čvor, nisu tvoja pravila“. U vašem je najboljem interesu da podržite mrežu, bilo pokretanjem čvora, doprinosom hash snage, ili indirektno podržavanjem razvoja bitcoin-a. I tu dolazi do udarca: pokretanje sopstvenog čvora znači da učestvujete u samoj mreži, što vas neizbežno uključuje u proces definisanja šta je Bitcoin. Budući da vam niko ne može reći šta je to Bitcoin, morate odlučiti šta je vama Bitcoin, iznova i iznova. Mreža je rastući organizam koji se neprestano menja, a priroda prihvatanja nadogradnje protokola će u više navrata nametati pitanje identiteta Bitcoin-a svojim učesnicima.
Šta je Bitcoin? A šta bi trebao da bude? Nedostatak centralnog autoriteta podrazumeva da je odgovor na ova pitanja vaša trajna odgovornost. Međutim, pre nego što se usudite da preuzmete ovu odgovornost, vi morate preduzeti prvi korak i početi da štedite sami.
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@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b
2025-05-30 19:47:11Originalni tekst na bitcoin-balkan.com.
Pregled sadržaja
- Kako Cantillonov Efekat Funkcioniše
- Kako Bitcoin Rešava Nejednakost iz Cantillonovog Efekta
- Uloga Vlade u Cantillonovom Efektu
- Zaštitite Sebe od Cantillonovog Efekta
- Kako mogu da saznam više o Bitcoin-u?
Pitanje o tome zašto nam je potreban Bitcoin danas je postalo veoma uobičajeno, ali odgovori obično ostavljaju većinu ljudi zbunjenim i sa izjavama da je on, ili Ponzijeva šema ili novac za kriminalce. Ovaj zaključak nije pravičan prema načinu na koji bi Bitcoin mogao da transformiše sistemsku nepravednost i korupciju koja je usadjena u naš trenutni monetarni sistem. Jedna od ovih nejednakosti u našem današnjem sistemu rezultat je Cantillonovog Efekta, davno zaboravljene klasične teorije o tome kako raspodela novca utiče na bogatstvo pojedinca.
Cantillonov Efekat opisuje kako stvaranje novog novca donosi korist onima koji prvi dobiju novac, a na štetu onih koji su najudaljeniji od stvaranja novog novca. U današnjem monetarnom sistemu banke i korporacije su najbliže novom novcu dok je srednja klasa najudaljenija. Bitcoin to ispravlja, davanjem novih bitcoin-a samo „rudarima“ koji osiguravaju protokol – mnogo pravednija distribucija.
Cantillonov Efekat predstavlja način na koji se naplaćuje dodatni porez svima koji rade za „nepromenjenu“ platu ili drže prvenstveno dolare ili eure kao deo svog bogatstva. Ovaj porez prenosi vrednost onima koji ulažu u finansijsku imovinu ili su preferirani dobavljači vlade. Bitcoin odvaja stvaranje novog novca od politike, čineći ovu situaciju mnogo poštenijom.
Kako Cantillonov Efekat Funkcioniše
Kada se poveća ponuda neke vrste novca, ima smisla da taj novi novac treba da ode u nečije ruke – ali čije? Da li bi trebao da pada kao kiša sa neba, da ga dobije neko na lutriji, ili ga predati posebnim interesnim grupama?
U našem savremenom monetarnom sistemu, ovaj novac nije uvek zajam za primaoce, tako da nekad ne trebaju da ga vrate.
Zabluda inflacije pomalo liči na MC Escher vodopad – dobro funkcioniše na papiru, ali ne govori skoro ništa korisno o tome kako stvarni svet funkcioniše.
Međutim, ova analiza zanemaruje to kako funkcionišu tržišta. Tamo gde novi novac ide prvo i način na koji se širi kroz ekonomiju, ima veliki uticaj na stvarno bogatstvo ljudi. Zašto? Kada se poveća novčana masa, cene se ne povećavaju odmah kao odraz ove činjenice. Umesto toga, povećavaju se polako, kako tržišta reaguju na novu ukupnu ponudu novca.
Prvi entiteti i ljudi koji prime novostvoreni novac mogu da ga potroše pre nego što je tržište reagovalo na bilo koji novi novac u sistemu prilagođavanjem cena. Kada oni kupuju stvari, dobijaju ih po niskim cenama jer cene još uvek ne podržavaju činjenicu da ima više novca u opticaju.
Jednom kada se novi novc nekoliko puta okrene, cene počinju da rastu, jer se više novčanih jedinica troši na isti broj dobara i usluga. Jedna od ‘cena’ u ekonomiji je plata ili zarada – i ova cena će da poraste, baš kao i sve druge. Međutim, ova cena raste sporije, kao rezultat ulaska novog novca u sistem, nego što je recimo, cena namirnica.
Kao rezultat ove neusklađenosti u vremenu porasta cena, oni koji primaju platu, tj. zaradu moraju da plaćaju više za svoje dnevne potrebe (poput namirnica), dok neko vreme primaju istu platu. Plate se prilagođavaju sporije od cena hrane. To dovodi do pada kupovne moći ljudi koji rade za platu..
Sve ovo proističe iz toga kako novi novac ulazi u sistem. Kada bi novi novac ušao u sistem samo putem zajmova direktno od centralne banke na plate ljudi, ti ljudi bi mogli da ga potroše pre nego što cene porastu, i samim tim bilo bi im bolje.
Na to kako raspodela novca utiče na bogatstvo, ukazao je Richard Cantillon u 18. veku, koji je gledao kako se ova dinamika odvija u Engleskoj kada je vlada štampala novac u njegovo vreme.
Izvrstan momak, g. Cantillon
Kako Bitcoin Rešava Nejednakost iz Cantillonovog Efekta
Da bismo razumeli kako Bitcoin rešava nejednakost, moramo da uporedimo kako se tradicionalne valute poput dolara ili eura distribuiraju u današnje vreme u odnosu na to kako se distribuiraju novi bitcoini.
Gotovo sva tradicionalna valuta koja je stvorena do današnjeg dana, prvo je distribuirana bankama i vladama. To je zato što su glavne komercijalne banke, poput JP Morgan i Citi, zauzvrat podržane od centralnih banaka poput Federalnih rezervi. Centralne banke poseduju ‘prese za štampanje’ – što znači da u svet mogu da ‘odštampaju’ (ili dodaju digitalno) neograničenu količinu svojih tradicionalnih valuta. Takođe su postavili pravila za komercijalne banke da ih podstaknu da pozajmljuju više ili manje dolara, što proširuje i ugovara ukupnu novčanu masu.
Budući da banke i vlade prve dobijaju novi novac, one odlučuju ko je drugi po redu koji može da iskoristi pogodnosti Cantillonovog Efekta. Tu na scenu dolaze lobisti, kao i moć koju donose njihove dobre konekcije sa finansijskom elitom. Lobisti osiguravaju da njihovi interesi imaju koristi od Cantillonovog Efekta, a veoma bogati, kao i korporacije, mogu da dobiju kredite od banaka po isplativim niskim kamatnim stopama.
Stvari mogu da se prilično zabrljaju kada vlada uskoči da preuzme “kontrolu” nad potrošnjom štampanog novca. Izvor: OpenDemocracy
Bitcoin-ov sistem eliminiše moć lobista i prednosti poznavanja pravog bankara, i stavlja ljude na mnogo ravnopravnije temelje. U Bitcoin-u, svaki ‘rudar’ na mreži ima jednake šanse da zaradi nagradu za novostvorene bitcoin-e na svakih 10 minuta. Svako može da postane rudar, jednostavnim kupovanjem hardvera i njegovim uključivanjem u utičnicu – daleko manje mukotrpan posao od lobiranja kod izabranih predstavnika da bi vam dodelili ugovor sa vladom. Rudari troše puno novca na električnu energiju i opremu da bi se takmičili za nagradu, a Bitcoin sistemu pružaju preko potrebnu uslugu: bezbednost. Bez rudara, Bitcoin-ov sistem ne bi funkcionisao.
Rudarenje bitcoin-a zahteva računar i struju – to je to.
U sistemu američkog dolara vidimo da političke veze proističu iz Cantillonovog Efekta. U Bitcoin sistemu vidimo da se pružaoci usluga (rudari) plaćaju za svoje usluge novostvorenim bitcoin-ima.
Naravno, ishodi Cantillonovog Efekta bi mogli da se promene tako što će političari da promene način na koji novi novac ulazi u sistem. Međutim, ovo ne rešava osnovni problem: neko drugi ima korist na tuđi račun.
Bitcoin sistem je daleko pravedniji jer koristi Cantillonov Efekat da bi uredno nagradio one koji pružaju korisnu uslugu za sve ostale: obezbeđivanje Bitcoin mreže.
Zamislite to ovako: u dolarskom sistemu, neka osoba šarmira političare ili bankare na pravim pozicijama da bi dobila povlašćen tretman na račun svih ostalih. U Bitcoin sistemu svi plaćaju po malo, da bi zaštitili svoje bankovne račune od krađe.
Uloga Vlade u Cantillonovom Efektu
Federalne vlade širom sveta su jedne od najvećih korisnika Cantillonovog Efekta, jer su u mogućnosti da vrlo lako dobiju zajmove od centralne banke svoje države. U SAD se to radi kada američko Ministarstvo finansija proda državne obveznice banci Federalnih rezervi. Federalne rezerve daju Ministarstvu finansija gomilu novoštampanog novca, a Ministarstvo finansija da Fed-u papir na kojem piše „mi ćemo vam isplatiti dug u to i to vreme sa određenom kamatom“. Možda je malo složenije od ovoga, ali to opisuje suštinu toga.
Budući da novac koji federalna vlada dobija nije postojao pre toga, ona može da ga potroši pre nego što cene počnu da rastu zbog tog novog novca koji ulazi u opticaj. To omogućava federalnoj vladi da ga troši na socijalne programe, policiju, vojsku, vojnu opremu za naoružavanje država poput Saudijske Arabije, čak i na ‘most iz nigde ka ničemu’, a da ne mora da koristi politički nepopularnu metodu: da poveća porez da bi to platila.
Umesto da povećaju poreske prihode za pokrivanje ove potrošnje, federalne vlade koriste Cantillonov Efekat za prenos kupovne moći od plata radnika srednje klase u vladin trezor. Na taj način inflacija i Cantillonov Efekat stvaraju skriveni porez na zarade i uštede novca.
Zaštitite Sebe od Cantillonovog Efekta
Zaštita svog života od Cantillonovog Efekta je zeznuta igra koju treba odigrati. Možete da pokušate da se približite izvoru novog novca, tako što ćete se nadmetati za državne ugovore ili raditi u vrhovima finansija. Možete da pokušate da igrate na visokim nivoima u trgovanju na berzi ili ulaganju u nekretnine, ali je verovatnije da ćete bankrotirati nego što ćete da se zaštitite.
Najlakši način da zaštitite sebe od nepravedne raspodele novog novca je potpuno odbijanje tog monetarnog sistema. Samo najstarije generacije koje danas žive mogu da se sete vremena kada je novac značio nešto drugo osim papira potkrepljenog ‘punom verom i kredibilitetom’ vlade i vojske. Mi smo tako uslovljeni da novac smatramo proizvodom naše vlade, ali naša zaštita od Cantillonovog Efekta zahteva gledanje novca kroz istoriju – čak i pre samo jednog veka.
Novac je nekada značio zlato – materijal koji nijedna vlada ne može magično da stvori u većoj količini, a koji zahteva ogroman napor da se pronađe i iskopa iz zemlje. Bitcoin je vrlo sličan zlatu po tome što niko ne može magično da ga stvori, i veoma ga je teško proizvesti više ‘rudarenjem’. Međutim, Bitcoin takođe putuje brzinom interneta, omogućavajući globalnu trgovinu na način na koji zlato jednostavno ne može.
Bitcoin i zlato – slični po karakteristikama ‘normalnog novca’, različiti po prenosivosti.
Da biste se zaštitili od Cantillonovog Efekta, potrebno je što je više moguće isključiti se iz nepravednih sistema tradicionalnih valuta, čuvajući bogatstvo u pravom novcu, poput zlata ili Bitcoin-a. Ovo je najmirniji način za ukidanje starog sistema i uvođenje novog, pravednijeg sistema.
Kako mogu da saznam više o Bitcoin-u?
Film "Bitkoin: Kraj novca kakvog poznajemo"
The Bitcoin Whitepaper ← objavljen 2008. godine, ovo je izložio dizajn za Bitcoin.
Ako vam se sviđa moj rad, molim vas da ga podelite sa svojim prijateljima i porodicom. Cilj mi je da svima pružim uvid u ekonomiju i kako ona utiče na njihove živote.
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@ b01749dc:d88bc196
2025-05-30 18:49:40Preâmbulo
Nós, membros voluntários desta ordem social, reconhecendo o autoproprietário como soberano sobre si mesmo e a propriedade adquirida legitimamente como extensão inviolável dessa soberania, instituímos esta constituição com o objetivo de garantir a paz, a justiça e a prosperidade em uma ordem de convivência livre, baseada exclusivamente na propriedade privada e no contrato voluntário.
Artigo I – Princípios Fundamentais
- Autopropriedade: Todo indivíduo é o único e exclusivo proprietário de seu corpo.
- Propriedade Legítima: A propriedade legítima deriva de:
- Apropriação original (homesteading) de recursos não reivindicados através do uso produtivo.
- Transferência voluntária por meio de contrato entre proprietários.
- Não-Agressão: Nenhum ato de agressão física contra a propriedade de outrem é permitido, sendo a agressão definida como qualquer invasão não consentida da pessoa ou de sua propriedade.
Artigo II – Ordens Jurídicas e Defesa
- Justiça Privada: A resolução de conflitos se dará por meio de agências privadas de arbitragem, justiça e defesa, contratadas voluntariamente.
- Reparação e Restauração: A punição deve se concentrar na restauração do prejuízo causado à vítima. Não se permite punição sem vítima.
- Proibição de Monopólios Coercitivos: Nenhuma entidade poderá estabelecer monopólio sobre justiça, segurança, moeda ou qualquer outro serviço sem o consentimento unânime dos afetados.
Artigo III – Associação Voluntária
- Liberdade de Associação: Todos os contratos e comunidades são baseados em adesão voluntária. Qualquer indivíduo tem o direito de se dissociar de comunidades ou acordos sem coerção.
- Propriedade Comum: Propriedades comuns existem apenas sob contrato explícito entre co-proprietários. O uso da propriedade comum deve seguir as regras contratuais estabelecidas por todos os participantes.
Artigo IV – Exclusão e Liberdade
- Direito de Exclusão: O proprietário tem o direito de excluir qualquer pessoa de sua propriedade por qualquer motivo, sendo este um corolário do direito de propriedade.
- Livre Entrada e Saída: Todos têm o direito de migrar, entrar ou sair de qualquer propriedade privada, desde que respeitem os direitos de propriedade de terceiros.
Artigo V – Moeda e Troca
- Moeda Desestatizada: A moeda é um bem como qualquer outro e deve surgir espontaneamente no mercado, sem imposição central.
- Tributação como Agressão: A cobrança compulsória de recursos é considerada uma violação da propriedade privada e, portanto, uma forma ilegítima de agressão.
Disposições Finais
- Nenhuma norma desta constituição poderá ser interpretada de forma a justificar qualquer violação da propriedade legítima.
- A sociedade aqui descrita não admite o conceito de “bem público” que não seja resultado de acordo contratual explícito entre partes privadas.
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@ 5fbec235:ff265c2a
2025-05-30 18:38:23## The Vibe Coding Revolution: Building Production Nostr Apps in Hours
The early Nostr protocol developers probably didn't envision this: their creation becoming the perfect playground for vibe coding. As the protocol matures and developers lean on battle-tested libraries like nostr-tools, we can focus purely on frontend magic.
I just proved this by vibe coding a performant Nostr PWA in roughly an hour. Just prompts and prayer.
### Goal: Simple. Fast. Real. Possibly Useful
My goal was to build a performant PWA first and foremost. Global accessibility through a single URL. Not that there shoudn't be trusted marketplaces and stores for discoverability...but the creation of a product should not be so dependent on all the cruft that today's app stores put teams through.
Performance was non-negotiable. I wanted something production-ready from the jump—not a prototype that would collapse under real usage. The biggest risk? Code structure. I prompted the AI to build something feature-lite but production-ready, hoping for a reviewable codebase that a competent developer could dive into immediately, and...
It completely worked!
Dannym jumped into the code and found several addressable issues. The worst? A serious XSS attack vector that could lead to cleverly designed social engineering scripts resulting in password theft and wallet drainage—the full nightmare scenario.
This perfectly captures the current AI development paradox: incredible capability paired with unpredictable blind spots. The vibes are addictive—watching prompted ideas materialize feels like magic. But that attack vector flying across your screen while you're eating popcorn? That's the reality check.
### Six Months From Now
In six months, we'll turn ideas into functioning, value-transacting apps through prompts alone. Programmatic money meets AI acceleration.
Wow and scary in equal measure.
Why am I scared? Because it will become exponentially harder to trust the open web. How many applications and websites will be half baked ideas given to AI? And How do I know that the developers haven't outsourced code-review responsibility to other AI agents...and well...who's really running things at that point?
### More on the App Itself
This app creates something interesting: reading someone's entire public chat history without social media noise. It feels more like RSS for human thoughts than traditional social platforms.
Clean. Focused. Quiet. Readable.
### What's Next?
I'm curious what the Nostr community thinks. Worth extending? The current state works, but there's obvious room for growth.
If someone zaps a feature request or throws out a "try this" vibe coding challenge, Danny and I might tackle the next zapped request publicly.
The future of development is here. It's messy, powerful, and absolutely unstoppable.
---
AI Cooked PWA here: https://nostr-pwa.pages.dev
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@ 58537364:705b4b85
2025-05-30 17:43:25…. “คนเราอยู่ในโลก แต่มักปฏิบัติไม่ถูกต้องต่อสิ่งทั้งหลายในโลก จึงดำเนินชีวิตไม่ถูกต้อง สิ่งที่เราเกี่ยวข้องต่างๆ นี่ มันก็อยู่ของมันไปตามปกติ ตามธรรมชาติ แต่เราปฏิบัติต่อมันไม่ถูก วางใจไม่ถูก แม้แต่มองก็ไม่ถูก เราจึงเกิดทุกข์
…. สิ่งทั้งหลายที่มีอยู่ตามธรรมดามันก็เป็นไป ถ้าเรารู้ทัน ก็เห็นมันเป็นไปตามกฎธรรมชาติ แต่ถ้าเราไม่รู้เท่าทัน เรามองไม่เป็น ก็เกิดทุกข์ทันที แม้แต่เหตุการณ์ความผันผวนปรวนแปรต่างๆที่เกิดขึ้นในชีวิตของคนเรา ที่เรียกกันว่า โชคบ้าง เคราะห์บ้าง ศัพท์พระเรียกว่า “โลกธรรม” ซึ่งเป็นตัวการสำคัญ ที่ทำให้คนดีใจเสียใจ เป็นสุข และเป็นทุกข์ เวลามันเกิดขึ้น ถ้าเราปฏิบัติไม่ถูกต้อง ที่สุขเราก็แปลงให้เป็นทุกข์ ที่มันเป็นทุกข์อยู่แล้ว เราก็เพิ่มทุกข์แก่ตัวเราให้มากขึ้น แต่ถ้าเราปฏิบัติถูกต้อง ที่ทุกข์เราก็ผันแปลงให้เป็นสุข ที่มันเป็นสุขอยู่แล้ว เราก็เพิ่มให้เป็นสุขมากยิ่งขึ้น
…. “โลกธรรม” คืออะไร โลกธรรมแปลว่า ธรรมประจำโลก ได้แก่สิ่งที่เกิดแก่มนุษย์ทั้งหลายตามธรรมดาของความเป็นอนิจจัง ก็คือ เรื่อง ลาภ เสื่อมลาภ ยศ เสื่อมยศ สรรเสริญ นินทา สุข ทุกข์ สิ่งเหล่านี้ พระพุทธเจ้าตรัสไว้ว่า มันมีอยู่เป็นธรรมดา เมื่อเราอยู่ในโลก เราไม่พ้นมันหรอก เราต้องเจอมัน ทีนี้ถ้าเราเจอมันแล้ว เราวางใจไม่ถูก และปฏิบัติไม่ถูก เราจะเอาทุกข์มาใส่ตัวทันที พอเรามีลาภ เราก็ดีใจ อันนี้เป็นธรรมดา เพราะเป็นสิ่งที่น่าปรารถนา แต่พอเสื่อมลาภเราก็เศร้าโศก เพราะเราสูญเสีย
…. ทีนี้ ถ้าเราวางใจไม่ถูก ไประทมตรมใจ แล้วไปทำอะไรประชดประชันตัวเอง หรือประท้วงชีวิต เป็นต้น เราก็ซ้ำเติมตัวเอง ทำให้เกิดทุกข์มากขึ้น อย่างง่ายๆกว่านั้น เช่น เสียงนินทา และสรรเสริญ คำสรรเสริญนั้นเป็นสิ่งที่เราชอบใจ พอได้ยินเราก็มีความสุข ใจก็ฟูขึ้นมา แต่พอได้ยินคำนินทาเราก็เกิดความทุกข์ ทุกข์นี้เกิด เพราะอะไร เพราะเรารับเอาเข้ามา คือรับกระทบมันนั่นเอง คือเอาเข้ามาบีบใจของเรา
…. ทีนี้ ถ้าเราวางใจถูกต้อง อย่างน้อยเราก็รู้ว่า อ้อ นี่คือธรรมดาของโลก เราได้เห็นแล้วไง พระพุทธเจ้าตรัสไว้แล้วว่า เราอยู่ในโลก เราต้องเจอโลกธรรมนะ เราก็เจอจริงๆ แล้ว เราก็รู้ว่า อ้อ นี่ความจริงมันเป็นอย่างนี้เอง เราได้เห็น ได้รู้แล้ว เราจะได้เรียนรู้ไว้ พอบอกว่าเรียนรู้เท่านั้นแหละ มันก็กลายเป็นประสบการณ์สำหรับศึกษา เราก็เริ่มวางใจต่อมันได้ถูกต้อง ต่อจากนั้น ก็นึกสนุกกับมันว่า อ้อ ก็อย่างนี้แหละ อยู่ในโลกก็ได้เห็นความจริงแล้วว่ามันเป็นอย่างไร ทีนี้ก็ลองกับมันดู แล้วเราก็ตั้งหลักได้ สบายใจ อย่างนี้ก็เรียกว่าไม่เอาทุกข์มาทับถมใจตัวเอง อะไรต่างๆ นี่ โดยมากมันจะเกิดเป็นปัญหาเพราะเราไปรับกระทบ ถ้าเราไม่รับกระทบ มันก็เป็นเพียงการเรียนรู้ บางทีเราทำใจให้ถูกต้องกว่านั้น ก็คือ คิดจะฝึกตนเอง พอเราทำใจว่าจะฝึกตนเอง เราจะมองทุกอย่างในแง่มุมใหม่ แม้แต่สิ่งที่ไม่ดีไม่น่าชอบใจ เราก็จะมองเป็นบททดสอบ พอมองเป็นบททดสอบทีไร เราก็ได้ทุกที ไม่ว่าดีหรือร้ายเข้ามา ก็เป็นบททดสอบใจและทดสอบสติปัญญาความสามารถทั้งนั้น ก็ทำให้เราเข้มแข็งยิ่งขึ้น เพราะเราได้ฝึกฝน เราได้พัฒนาตัวเรา เลยกลายเป็นดีไปหมด
…. ถ้าโชค หรือโลกธรรมที่ดีมีมา เราก็สบาย เป็นสุข แล้วเราก็ใช้โชคนั้น เช่น ลาภ ยศ เป็นเครื่องมือเพิ่มความสุขให้แผ่ขยายออกไป คือใช้มันทำความดี ช่วยเหลือเกื้อกูลเพื่อนมนุษย์ ทำให้ความสุขขยายจากตัวเรา แผ่กว้างออกไป สู่ผู้คนมากมายในโลก ถ้าเคราะห์ หรือโลกธรรมที่ร้ายผ่านเข้ามา ก็ถือว่าเป็นโอกาสที่ตัวเราจะได้ฝึกฝนพัฒนา มันก็กลายเป็นบททดสอบ เป็นบทเรียน และเป็นเครื่องมือฝึกสติ ฝึกปัญญา ฝึกการแก้ปัญหา เป็นต้น ซึ่งจะทำให้เราพัฒนายิ่งขึ้นไป
…. เพราะฉะนั้น ลูกศิษย์พระพุทธเจ้าจึงถือคติว่า ให้มนสิการให้ถูกต้อง ถ้ามองสิ่งทั้งหลายให้เป็นแล้ว ก็จะเกิดเป็นประโยชน์แก่เราหมด ไม่ว่าดีหรือร้าย นี้เป็นตัวอย่างวิธีการเบื้องต้น แต่รวมความง่ายๆ ก็คือ เราไม่เอาทุกข์มาทับถมตนเอง”
สมเด็จพระพุทธโฆษาจารย์ ( ป. อ. ปยุตฺโต ) ที่มา : จากหนังสือ “ความสุขที่สมบูรณ์”
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@ 866e0139:6a9334e5
2025-05-30 17:37:36Autor: Michael Meyen. Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben. Sie finden alle Texte der Friedenstaube und weitere Texte zum Thema Frieden hier. Die neuesten Pareto-Artikel finden Sie in unserem Telegram-Kanal.
Die neuesten Artikel der Friedenstaube gibt es jetzt auch im eigenen Friedenstaube-Telegram-Kanal.
„Eine wohltemperierte Abrechnung hin zum Frieden“ steht auf dem Cover, und ich dachte gleich: Das ist doch etwas für die „Friedenstaube“. Ist es auch, aber anders als zunächst gedacht. Vielleicht hätte ich mir einen Moment Zeit nehmen sollen für den Haupttitel. Drei Substantive ohne Punkt und Komma. Raffen Sterben Trance. Besser kann man das Leiden an dieser Welt nicht in Worte gießen – vor allem dann nicht, wenn daraus ein Satzstrom wird, der einen Rhythmus von ganz eigener Kraft entwickelt. Man braucht keine Noten, um einen Ohrwurm zu schreiben. Mit Buchstaben geht das auch. Wer das nicht glaubt, lese dieses Buch von Teer Sandmann und lasse sich von seiner Melodie durch die Abgründe dieser Zeit tragen.
Ich habe den Autor im Spätsommer 2020 kennengelernt, bei einem Rubikon-Treffen. Das schreibt sich jetzt so leicht hin, war aber damals fast ein Abenteuer. Schon die Bahnfahrt. Die Blicke, das Zischen, der Hass. Sie da! Wo ist Ihre Maske? Ich hatte überlegt, ob ich mir das antun will, und war auch nicht sicher, ob es wirklich eine gute Idee ist, drei Tage mit lauter Dissidenten auf einem Haufen zu sein. Mehr Zielscheibe geht kaum. Vor Ort war das dann alles wie weggeblasen. Abends ein Lagerfeuer und tagsüber Menschen wie Daniel Sandmann, der sich auf seinen Büchern Teer nennt und weiß, was Glück ist:
„Der Augenblick, den du mit dem Andern und durch das Andere erlebst, unbelangt von Staat, Norm und Konzern: dieser Augenblick hebt deine Einsamkeit auf. Die aufgehobene Einsamkeit aber ist die Freiheit, die wir als Wärme erleben. Als Feuer im Körper.“ (90)
So war das an jenem Augustwochenende. Jeder, der ein wenig älter ist, hat längst erlebt, dass keine Flamme ewig brennt. Nach Corona kamen die Kriege. Und selbst die, die solche Tage nicht vergessen wollen, verlieren sich im Kleinklein ihrer Eitelkeiten. Daniel und Teer Sandmann machen aus diesem Stoff eine grandiose Sinfonie, die darüber erhaben ist, mit dem Finger auf diesen zu zeigen oder auf jenen. Hin und wieder eine Andeutung: Das muss reichen. Der Formaterfinder, der sein Baby mit einem plumpen Satz schützt. „Nicht einfach kritisieren, mach es besser!“ Eine Redaktion der Gegenöffentlichkeit, hochgelobt, die kurze Sätze will und kurze Texte. Dieses Feld können und wollen die Sandmänner nicht bestellen, genau wie all das, was im Namen einer „Menschheitsfamilie“ daherkommt. „Liebe Community. So begrüßt ein dissidenter Moderator das Publikum in einer dissidenten Talkshow.“ (87) Etwas mehr Platz bekommt [Rainer Mausfeld](https://www.freie-medienakademie.de/medien-plus/101):
„Warum schweigen die Lämmer? Ein tolles Buch. Es hat gegriffen. Dann hat sich gezeigt: Das System, von diesem Buch dekonstruiert, muss einen Zacken zugeben an Totalität und schon schlüpft auch die Analyse mit hinein ins System und ins Schweigen und der Autor wird selbst zum Lamm.“ (21)
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Ich kenne das Lied, das Daniel aka Teer Sandmann hier singt. Wie er bin ich von links gekommen und habe erlebt, „wie meine Welt leer wurde“ (23). Wie er weiß ich inzwischen, dass ich in „meinen Kreisen“ von einst nicht mehr klarkommen würde und dass es mit den neuen keinesfalls einfacher ist. Hier, immer noch und trotz alledem, die Idee, dass sich Glück planen lässt, und damit „der Wahn“, „ein Ziel zu erreichen und alles auszumerzen, was dem Ziel in die Quere kommt“ (143): „Die linken Ideen münden in Ordnungen und im Polizeistaat“ (24). Und dort Kritiker der Macht, die vor den Gerichten der gleichen Macht um ein wenig Wohlstand streiten, sich nur noch gegenseitig interviewen, die AfD hoffieren und auf Personen zielen, wo es um Strukturen gehen müsste. Klaus Schwab, Bill Gates, Jeff Epstein statt Kapitalismus. Was bleibt euch noch, Kinder, wenn ihr zwar den Totalitarismus erkennt, aber nicht sehen wollt, „wie dieser alternativlos aus dem Kapital hervorschießen musste“ (40)?
Der letzte Satz ist ein Versuch, den Takt aufzunehmen, den dieser Text anschlägt. Teer Sandmann sagt, dass ihn „die Musik aus der Renaissance“ noch mehr gerettet habe als das Schreiben, und baut vielleicht auch deshalb immer wieder Miniaturen ein, die zeigen, dass Kunst auch dann Jahrhunderte überdauern kann, wenn jemand wie ich noch nie davon gehört hat. Daniel Sandmann reicht. Vergesst all eure Gegenentwürfe, singt dieser Künstler:
„Wir sind für nichts. Wir stören die Haltungen und schaffen Nischen. Indem wir stören. Wir sind für alles, was nicht in ein ‚wir sind für‘ mündet. Bloß, ist das alles nicht schon eine Haltung? Und wer sind ‚wir‘?“ (79)
Die Sache mit dem Frieden, natürlich. Es gibt in diesem Buch einen Traum, in dem ein „lieber Gott“ alle Journalisten tötet, „die neuen Schwarzhemden“ (49), „die in diesem medialen Schlachtfeld, Journalismus genannt, mitfeuern und mitgeifern und ihrer Niedertracht freien Lauf lassen“, und mit ihnen auch alle, „die binnen einer Woche auch nur einen Cent noch überweisen an diese Instrumente der Niedertracht und der Geistvernichtung“ sowie Parteimitglieder und Manager, jeden Adelsclan und alle Künstler, „die der Macht zusprechen“ (55). Sie ahnen es schon: Diese Liste ist unvollständig und mit ihrer Wucht eine Ausnahme in dieser „wohltemperierten Abrechnung hin zum Frieden“. Daniel und Teer Sandmann suchen nach Ruhe und Trance. Frieden: Das ist nicht nur das Ende des Kapitalismus oder das vergessene Stück aus der Renaissance. Frieden bringt auch die Runde im Waldsee:
„Komme ich aus dem Wasser, komme ich nach Hause. Mag sein, dass im Orgasmus der Tod vergessen geht, im Wasser aber verliert er die Bedeutung und vermengt sich mit dem Leben aufs Unkenntliche. Stilles Jauchzen, meerjungfrauartiges Kreisen, kindliches Drehen um sich selbst und ohne Bezugspunkt: das sind die Ausdrucksformen dieses ungeplanten Glücks.“ (157)
Jetzt weiß ich auch, warum ich schon als junger Mann jeden Tag ohne Schwimmgelegenheit für einen verlorenen Tag gehalten habe.
Michael Meyen ist Medienforscher, Ausbilder und Journalist. Seit 2002 ist er Universitätsprofessor an der LMU München. https://www.freie-medienakademie.de/
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@ db8c7645:1cac80d5
2025-05-30 17:36:00Hi, super popular, masculine, and COOL modder loregamer here. I've worked on a few mods on the ModHQ site. I would like the permissions policy to be removed
I wrote a retarded manifesto on it here:
WHY WE STOLE HEADS FROM NEXUS MOD AUTHORS
TLDR
::youtube{#edea7yMqOY8}
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@ c631e267:c2b78d3e
2025-05-30 17:08:51Die Triebfeder unserer Arbeit wird immer die Vision für einen Kontinent sein, \ der durch Demokratie, Rechtsstaatlichkeit, die Achtung der Grundfreiheiten \ und die Ausrichtung auf seine Bürgerinnen und Bürger geeint ist. \ Europäische Kommission
Nichts könnte weiter von der Realität entfernt sein, als die gängigen Beteuerungen politischer Mandatsträger:*Inne:*n, für das Wohl der Bürger zu arbeiten. Dasselbe gilt für die Phrasen der EU-Kommission bezüglich ihrer «Bemühungen» zum Schutz von Demokratie und Rechtsstaatlichkeit.
In ihrer Rede als Preisträgerin des diesjährigen Aachener Karlspreises betonte Kommissionspräsidentin von der Leyen denn gestern auch, eine von vier zentralen Aufgaben sei es, «unsere Demokratie zu erneuern und zu stärken». Geehrt wurde sie zynischerweise «für ihre Verdienste um die Einheit der Mitgliedstaaten, die Eindämmung der Pandemie, die Geschlossenheit des Verteidigungswillens gegen Russland und die Impulse zum Green Deal».
Im Rahmen der Initiative «Europäischer Schutzschild für die Demokratie» hat die Kommission diese Woche zur Stärkung des europäischen Faktencheck-Netzwerks aufgerufen und dafür weitere fünf Millionen Euro bereitgestellt. Zu den wichtigsten Maßnahmen gehöre es, «Faktenprüfer» vor Belästigung zu schützen sowie gegen «Desinformation und ausländische Einmischung», darunter auch «Pro-Kreml-Desinformationsnarrative» zu kämpfen.
Die Rechtfertigung all solcher Maßnahmen bastelt man sich permanent selber. Mehr hochkarätige Verschwörung und Desinformation als zum Beispiel im Kontext des «Pfizergate»-Skandals oder der langjährigen «Biden-Show», die «an ein autoritäres System erinnert», sind eigentlich kaum vorstellbar. Zum Schutz der offiziellen Narrative finanzierte die US-Regierung nach neuen Erkenntnissen auch in Deutschland und der Schweiz Kampagnen im Kampf gegen die freie Meinungsäußerung.
Derweil gibt es angeblich ein Rekordhoch beim Vertrauen in die Institutionen, und die EU-Bürger denken größtenteils Folgendes:
Entsprechend wollen wir alle sicher auch Vorschriften wie den Digital Services Act voranbringen, «um ein faires und offenes Umfeld für Online-Plattformen zu sichern». Ebenso warten wir natürlich ungeduldig auf den digitalen Euro, den die Europäische Zentralbank mit Nachdruck vorantreibt. Dass dieses Mittel jedoch das genaue Gegenteil der behaupteten Inklusion ist, dürfte sich inzwischen herumgesprochen haben.
Die Verknüpfung von staatlichem digitalem Geld mit einer biometrischen digitalen Identität ist das perfekte Kontrollinstrument und der Sargnagel für elementare bürgerliche Freiheiten. Aber genau das ist weltweit der Weg, gefördert von einer mächtigen Lobby. Transition News hat oft über diese Entwicklung berichtet, zum Beispiel hier, hier und hier.
In Thailand verteilt die Regierung digitales, programmiertes Helikoptergeld gegen die Nutzung einer offiziellen Wallet mit biometrischem Gesichtsabgleich, auch wenn das «Konjunkturprogramm» aktuell suspendiert ist. Und in Vietnam werden Geschäftskunden ab Juli ohne biometrische Verifizierung ihre Bankkonten nicht mehr benutzen können.
Die deutsche Bundesregierung, die wie die EU «nie mehr Gas aus Russland» will, hat gerade beschlosssen, wenigstens die Verwaltung über alle Ebenen besser digital zu vernetzen. Das sei ein wichtiger Baustein für den nationalen und europäischen Datenaustausch zwischen Behörden, heißt es aus dem Digitalministerium, von dem auch die Vision des digitalen «Next Germany» stammt.
Diese «Datenautobahn» kompensiert dann vermutlich für viele Bürgerinnen die steigenden Energierechnungen und dürfte auch in den Augen der Wirtschaft Priorität haben. Immerhin wird die Bürokratie modernisiert und das zu verwaltende Subjekt kann sich darauf verlassen, dass seine einmal irgendwo eingegebenen Daten überall verfügbar sind und nie mehr verloren gehen. Das ist doch eine beruhigende Perspektive.
[Titelbild: Pixabay]
Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben und ist zuerst auf Transition News erschienen.
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@ 6c05c73e:c4356f17
2025-05-30 15:24:34Assim como a grande maioria dos brasileiros, eu não comecei um negócio porque "queria empreender". Muito pelo contrário, eu precisava para poder pagar as contas e manter o básico.
Então, vamos explorar essa pequena história e ver onde chegamos hoje.
Festas, Open Bar e Camisas
Meu primeiro negócio foi, na verdade, um combo. Eu tinha saído do último emprego e gostava muito de festas. Então, comecei a organizar uma festa mensalmente na casa do meu pai. Eu pagava a água, a energia e dava uma grana para ele. Em troca, organizava festas de sábado para domingo com open bar.
A fórmula era simples: criava um evento da festa no Facebook, convidava todo mundo que eu conhecia, panfletava na cidade e espalhava cartazes nos pontos de ônibus sobre a festa. E, para fechar com chave de ouro, mulher era VIP até as 20h. Consequência? Os caras vinham e pagavam o ingresso deles e o delas. Kkkkk. E a festa sempre lotava!
Comecei a notar que a galera se vestia mal. E pensei: "Por que não vestir eles?".
Pimba! Comecei a desenhar e confeccionar camisas para vender nas festas. E, pimba de novo! Vendeu tudo! Fiz duas coleções e mais algumas festas, até o dia em que um menino deu PT de tanto beber e decidi que era hora de tentar outra coisa.
Como Assim, a Apple Não Vai Mais Vender os Carregadores?
Isso foi durante a pandemia. A Apple decidiu vender o telefone e o cabo, e "que você se vire com a fonte". Estava difícil achar dinheiro no mercado naqueles tempos, e eu pensei: "Vou pesquisar no Google Trends e validar a ideia". Bingo! Tinha mais de 80 pontos de busca. Fui correndo para São Paulo, no Brás, e comprei, literalmente, todo o meu dinheiro em cabo de iPhone, carregador e bateria portátil.
Fiquei com R$ 100 na conta, só para fazer um lanche e pagar o Uber para voltar para casa. Chegando aqui, tirei fotos e fiz várias copys. Anunciei no OLX, Mercado Livre e Facebook. Impulsionei os anúncios no OLX, vendi para familiares e amigos, e vendia até para quem estava na rua. Fiz entrega de bike, a pé, de ônibus, e é isso mesmo, tem que ralar! Para queimar o resto da mercadoria, deixei em consignado em uma loja de eletrônicos. E, hora da próxima ideia.
Mulheres, Doces e TPM
Meu penúltimo negócio veio depois dos cabos. Eu pesquisei na internet negócios online para começar com pouca grana. (Depois que paguei as contas do dia a dia, sobraram R$ 3 mil). E achei uma pesquisa mostrando que doces tinham baixa barreira de entrada e exigiam poucos equipamentos. Eu trabalhei em restaurante por muitos anos e sabia como lucrar com aquilo. Além disso, mulheres consomem mais doce em uma certa época do mês.
Não deu outra, convidei duas pessoas para serem sócias. Desenvolvemos os produtos, fotografamos e fizemos as copys. Em seguida, precisávamos vender. Então, lá vamos nós de novo: iFood, WhatsApp, 99Food (na época), Uber Eats (na época), Elo7, famílias e amigos e, por fim, começamos a vender consignado em alguns restaurantes e lojas.
Foi uma época em que aprendi a prospectar clientes de todas as maneiras possíveis. De novo, minha maior dificuldade era a locomoção para fazer as entregas. Só tinha uma bike, mas entregávamos. Os primeiros três meses foram difíceis demais, mas rolou. No fim, nossas maiores vendas vinham do iFood, encomendas de festas e consignados.
Mas, como nem tudo são flores, meus dois sócios tomaram outros caminhos e abandonaram o projeto. Galera, está tudo bem com isso. Isso acontece o tempo todo. A vida muda e temos que aprender a aceitar isso. Vida que segue, fui para frente de novo.
Sobre Paixões, Paciência e Acreditar
Estava eu comemorando meu aniversário de 30 anos, num misto de realizações e pouca realização. Como assim? Sabe quando você faz um monte de coisas, mas ainda assim não sente que é aquilo? Pois então... Eu amo investimentos, livros, escrever e sempre curti trocar ideia com amigos e família sobre como se desenvolver.
Desde que comecei a usar a internet, eu criei: canal no YouTube, páginas no Instagram e Facebook, Pinterest, Steemit, blog e até canal no Telegram. Mas nunca tinha sido consistente, sabe? Tipo assim, vou fazer isso por um ano e plantar 100 sementes aqui. Enfim, inconsistência te derruba, meu amigo...
Eu voltei a trabalhar com restaurantes e estava doido para mudar de área. Estava exausto de trabalhar e meu WhatsApp não parava de tocar. Fui estudar ADM e Desenvolvimento de Sistemas no Senac. Dois anos depois, me formei, consegui um trabalho e comecei a pensar em como criar um negócio online, escalável e multilíngue.
Passei os próximos sete meses desenhando e pensando como. Mas tinha que dar o primeiro passo. Criei um site e fui escrevendo textos. Os primeiros 30 foram "aquilo", os próximos 10 melhoraram muito e os 10 seguintes me deixaram bem satisfeito. Hoje, tenho o negócio que estava na minha cabeça desde 2023. Mas olha o tamanho da volta que o universo me fez dar e aprender para chegar aqui hoje! Dicas? Só 3:
- Continua, lá na frente tudo vai fazer sentido.
- Presta mais atenção ao que a sua voz interior diz (intuição).
- Confia em si mesmo e faz sem medo de errar. Porque, adivinha? Você vai errar! Mas vai aprender e melhorar. Tem que persistir...
Só para simplificar, meu negócio é um blog com AdSense (parece arcaico, mas funciona). Por hoje é isso. E, se quiserem trocar ideias e se conectar, tamo junto!
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@ d191fd34:91b61845
2025-05-30 12:26:29Cybernoma: Universal Declaration of Natural and Cybernetic Rights
Preamble
We, individuals, independent and autonomous entities possessing consciousness and the ability to feel, recognize that we possess inherent and natural rights that are universal and inalienable. These rights are based on Natural Law and the principle of non-aggression, and must be protected to ensure freedom, justice, and prosperity for all. The discovery and construction of the digital territory through the Internet has transformed our world, creating new dimensions of interaction and communication that require additional protection of our natural rights. In this context, we declare the following natural and cybernetic rights:
Article 1: Right to Life, Liberty, and Security
Every individual has the right to life, liberty, and security of existence. These rights are inherent and cannot be suppressed by any authority.
Article 2: Private Property
Every individual has the right to own private property and enjoy the fruits of their labour and effort. Private property is a natural right that must be respected and protected. This includes both tangible and intangible assets, such as data, patents, and knowledge. Data generated by an individual is their property and may be transferred or sold only with their explicit consent.
Article 3: Non-Aggression
No individual or group may initiate force, fraud, coercion, or psychological manipulation against another. Aggression can be physical, psychological, material, or virtual. All individuals have the right to defend themselves against any form of aggression.
Article 4: Minimum Intervention
Authorities must intervene as little as possible in the economic and personal activities of individuals. State intervention must be limited to protecting natural rights and ensuring justice.
Article 5: Freedom of Expression and Information
Every individual has the right to freedom of opinion and expression, including the freedom to seek, receive, and impart information and ideas through any medium without restriction. Censorship is a violation of this natural right. Furthermore, every individual has the right to access public domain information and open-source code without any restrictions.
Article 6: Net Neutrality
The Internet must remain neutral, free from governmental or corporate interference that favors certain actors over others. All individuals have the right to access and participate in the network equitably.
Article 7: Decentralisation
The global network must be decentralised, with multiple points of control and no central authority that can impose unilateral rules. Decentralization is essential for protecting individual freedom and autonomy.
Article 8: Privacy
Every individual has the right to privacy, including control over their personal data and communications. No entity may collect, store, or use personal data without the explicit consent of the individual.
Article 9: Individual Autonomy
Individuals have the right and responsibility to make autonomous decisions about their lives, including their activities in the digital space. Individual autonomy is fundamental to the freedom and dignity of all conscious and sentient beings.
Article 10: Right to Resistance
Every individual has the right to resist any form of oppression or tyranny that violates their natural and cybernetic rights. Resistance may take various forms, including civil disobedience and armed defense when necessary.
Conclusion
These natural and cybernetic rights are universal and inalienable, and must be respected and protected by all authorities and entities. Any violation of these rights constitutes an aggression against freedom, justice, and dignity.
This Universal Declaration of Natural and Cybernetic Rights is inspired by fundamental documents that have defended freedom, justice, and individual rights throughout history. We recognize the legacy of the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which established universal principles of dignity and rights for all conscious and sentient beings. We also align with the 1996 Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, which proclaimed the ideals of a free and open, decentralised, and neutral network. We find resonance in documents such as the Magna Carta and the 1789 Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen, which laid the foundations for protecting individual rights against abuses of power. These documentary precedents are part of a continuous effort to ensure that natural and cybernetic rights are respected and protected in all spheres of life.
Proclaimed on May 23, 2025, by us, the Guardians of Cybernoma, defenders of freedom, justice, and natural and cybernetic rights.
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@ d360efec:14907b5f
2025-05-30 11:23:40 -
@ 5ea46480:450da5bd
2025-05-30 10:31:55Neutrality can be a confusing notion. It implies some sort of a-political position, yet neutrality is in itself a political position. But what it means, or how neutrality expresses itself is in a lack of bias or preference; it is the act of non-decision where we see neutrality. As a result, some conflation can occur, because this ‘non-decision’ can be the result of two things: Either being in the position to decide, but choosing not to, what we can perhaps call ‘active neutrality’. Or, the sheer inability to express and actuate preference, where we could call that ‘passive neutrality’.
The Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers, aka ICANN, is an actively (for the most part) neutral institution. It has all the power and control to express its preferences, and censor basically all the relevant and most actively used parts of the world wide web. But it doesn’t (for the most part), because we recognize the value of this neutral stance. The only reason they are actively instead of passively neutral, is due to technical reasons; we simply don’t know of any workable way to remove the controlling body from the system, and we would if we could. Instead we encapsulated it in all kinds of power obscuring institutions and structures to mitigate the issue.
The reason the controlling body has to exist, is because the objective is a ‘global state’ (global as it is understood in programming, meaning as much as ‘overarching’). The point is that google.com, means/refers to the same thing wherever you are. The added value of some simple human readable and memorable address ‘google.com’ falls apart the moment it becomes inconsistent. The only way to ensure this, is to put a single entity in charge. We employ these ‘global states’ in all kinds of places in society, often with geographical boundaries we call ‘jurisdictions’, but at the very least you know where those lines are drawn and can therefor know what to expect.
There is one exception to this ‘rule’ that ‘global state’ requires a single entity to be in charge: Bitcoin. It is the whole crux of the system; on the one hand we require ‘global state’ in order to have consistent accounting, but on the other hand we did not want anyone to be in charge. The goal of Bitcoin was neutrality, and it found it by capturing ‘passive’ variant by making the system ‘permissionless’. Now it is crucial to understand that non of Bitcoins attributes are intrinsic, but instead are emergent and the result of human action. Also, Bitcoins ‘global state’ is stupendously expensive and does not scale. The fact that those things were not properly understood is what lead to the BlOcKcHaIn hype, believing this passively neutral global state could be implemented outside the realms of money. But this piece is not about Bitcoin, or blockchains for that matter.
The reason I talk about them, is to point out that this passive neutrality is an emergent property not actually found within the system at all. You as user still rely on a third party in what we call miners, and those miners are free to be as biased and non-neutral as they want; in fact we sort of rely on them to be biased towards money. You don’t get your transaction confirmed because a miner likes you, but because you sufficiently bribed him to do so. And Bitcoin’s censorship resistance relies on the hope that such bribes will at least appeal to some miner out there. Bitcoin’s neutrality is the result of there ultimately not being any one particular actor with the ability actuate its preference over time, regardless of the fact that they are able to do so in moments of time.
Nostr does something similar, just without the whole global state thing. It is not neutral because of the good graces of some overlord, it actually recognizes the foolishness of such an effort and lets anyone be as biased an non-neutral as they want, with one simple exception. The only expectation of neutrality is with clients that they adhere to the protocol and actually let users connect to whatever relay they want and produce events that other clients are capable of interpreting, i.e. that they be interoperable. But hopefully because the system is permissionless, some people decide to make such clients, and users decide to use them, instead of willfully locking themselves up. It has to be remarked that humanity does not have the greatest track-record in this regard, but the incentives behind interoperability gives us a fighting chance at least.
Nostr’s neutrality is an emergent property that is the result of human action; it relies on people setting up relays, and people making decisions on what relays they use. The type of neutrality is of the passive kind. The protocol does not provide a public space as such, it just allows you to navigate a potentially vast amount of private spaces; the commons is the connective tissue, and it is this connective tissue that is ‘neutral’. What it boils down to, is that you don’t have to ask permission to ask whomever you want to ask for permission. And in the most desperate moment, you can always resort to asking yourself for permission; I am sure you will comply with such a request.
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@ 5ea46480:450da5bd
2025-05-30 10:31:22Understanding or grasping Nostr can be deceptively difficult. At the very least it is non-trivial. At first glance, looking at NIP-01, the protocol is rather straight forward. But those are just the basics; yes the beauty of Nostr is its ‘simplicity’, but that does not mean the system that results from it is not complex. Conway's Game of Life only has a hand full of rules, yet you can, in theory at least, create any complex system imaginable. And this is where the deception lies; the less you define from the outset, the more you imply on what follows.
It appears that as it stands, Nostr suffers from this deceptiveness. You can reason through all these implications, but that is still an exercise that has to be performed and where mistakes can be made. Worse, this exercise has been a group effort from the start that is still in progress. Currently there is no clear cut ‘authoritative’ example of all the implications that have been ‘discovered’ thus far.
A good example of the implications following Nostr’s primitives is what we now refer to as the ‘outbox model’. The reason we ‘now’ refer to it as such, is because initially it was called the ‘Gossip model’ derived from the client that first implemented the idea. Outbox is fundamental to Nostr, but it was never explicitly stated in the initial protocol description. The result is that roughly five years into this Nostr endeavor, it is still not universally implemented; worse yet, some developers appear to be in no rush to do so. Now the reason they will give you is probably one based on priority, yet I can’t shake the feeling that they apparently don’t ‘get it’.
My point here is not to play some blame game or hold anyone to account. I am just concluding they don’t actually get the new paradigm that we have all stumbled into. To expand on this specific outbox example, its significance only becomes really apparent further along in the ‘reasoning through all the implications’ exercise. In relation to one aspect, but there are more: The point is not ‘just’ censorship-resistance for users, but the freedom for relays that comes with it to apply whatever policy on what they store and make available; it is this discrimination or curation that can add value by making finding relevant information easier in a straightforward manner. But it relies on outbox to avoid isolation; something that only becomes apparent once you are reasoning through all the implications on how we discover and consume content.
To be clear, this piece is not supposed to a crusade on the outbox model, my point here is that there is an inherent logic to Nostr stemming from putting cryptography front and center. It is a logic that has to be applied and will subsequently carry you through all the challenges we face in reconstructing the entirety of the web. This is not to say there is only one obvious path, and different schools of thought are bound to emerge. But it behooves us all, faced with this new paradigm, to continuously reflect on the mental image we have cultivated of what Nostr is; actively re-performing that exercise of exploring the implications this simple set of protocol rules creates.
Unfortunately I can not escape my own folly. After all, I am just an armchair asshole that never wrote a single line of code in his life. Obviously this minds-eye bullshit is not even half the story, the bulk of the effort is translating it into software, the tangible, the real. It is in that effort ultimately the real exploration of this paradigm occurs. All I can do is build castles in the sky.
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@ 5ea46480:450da5bd
2025-05-30 10:29:38Decentralization refers to control/power, and relates to censorship resistance. That is it, it is not more complicated then that. Resilience is a function of redundancy; a centralized censored system can have a redundant set-up and therefor be resilient.
Take Bitcoin; the blockchain is a central database, it is resilient because it has many redundant copies among a lot of different nodes. The message (txs and blocks) propagation is decentralized due to existence of a p2p network among these nodes, making the data distribution censorship resistant (hello op_return debate). But onchain transactions themselves are NOT p2p, they require a middlemen (a miner) because it is a central database, as opposed to something like lightning which is p2p. Peer to Peer says something about relative architectural hierarchical position/relation. P2P provides censorship resistance because it entails equal power relations, provided becoming a peer is permissionless. What makes onchain transactions censorship resistant is that mining is permissionless, and involves this open power struggle/game where competition results in a power distribution among players, meaning (hopefully) decentralization. The fact users rely on these middlemen is mitigated by this decentralization on the one hand, and temper-proofing via cryptographic signatures on the other, resulting in what we call trustlessness (or trust minimization for the autists in the room); we only rely on a miner to perform a job (including your tx into a block), but we don’t trust the miner to perform the job correctly, this we can verify ourselves.
This leads us to Nostr, because that last part is exactly what Nostr does as well. It uses cryptography to get tamper-proof messaging, which then allows you to use middle-men in a trust minimized way. The result is decentralization because in general terms, any middle man is as good as any other (same as with miners), and becoming such a middleman is permissionless(somewhat, mostly); which in turn leads to censorship resistance. It also allows for resilience because you are free to make things as redundant as you'd like.
Ergo, the crux is putting the cryptography central, making it the starting point of the system; decentralization then becomes an option due to trust minimization. The difference between Bitcoin an Nostr, is that Bitcoin maintains a global state/central ledger and needs this PoW/Nakamoto consensus fanfare; Nostr rests itself with local perspectives on 'the network'.
The problem with the Fediverse, is that it does not provide trust minimization in relation to the middlemen. Sure, there are a lot different servers, but you rely on a particular one (and the idea you could switch never really seemed to have materialized in a meaningful way). It also fails in permisionlessness because you rely on the association between servers, i.e. federation, to have meaningful access to the rest of the network. In other words, it is more a requirement of association than freedom of association; you have the freedom to be excommunicated.
The problem with ATproto is that is basically does not solve this dynamic; it only complicates it by pulling apart the components; identity and data, distribution and perspective are now separated, and supposedly you don’t rely on any particular one of these sub-component providers in the stack; but you do rely on all these different sub-component providers in the stack to play nice with each other. And this ‘playing nice’ is just the same old ‘requirement of association’ and ‘freedom of excommunication’ that looms at the horizon.
Yes, splitting up the responsibilities of identity, hosting and indexing is what is required to safe us from the platform hellscape which at this stage takes care of all three. But as it turns out, it was not a matter cutting those up into various (on paper) interchangeable middlemen. All that is required is putting cryptographic keys in the hands of the user; the tamperproofing takes care of the rest, simply by trust minimizing the middlemen we use. All the sudden it does not matter which middlemen we use, and no one is required to play nice; we lost the requirement of association, and gained freedom of association, which was the purpose of censorship resistance and therefor decentralization, to begin with.
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@ 527337d5:93e9525e
2025-05-30 10:24:39# Exploring the Niche of Conspiracy Theory Markets: A Probabilistic Approach and Sales Condition Analysis on Japanese Online Flea Markets (Subtitle: Unveiling the Surprising Realities of a Niche Market Through Data Analysis and AI)
(Note: This research analyzes consumer reactions and product characteristics in a specific market based on data. It does not endorse conspiracy theories nor promote or encourage any illegal or fraudulent activities.)
1. Abstract
This study aimed to clarify, from a probabilistic perspective, what combinations of information (topic x manipulation category) tend to attract attention and how pricing strategies affect sales of products marketed towards "conspiracy theorists" on online flea markets in Japan. Using an analogy from drug discovery's structural exploration, this research explored "information combinations" in products that resonate with individuals interested in conspiracy theories. Specifically, products were generated (some with AI assistance) based on defined topic categories (e.g., T1: Technology/Security) and manipulation categories (e.g., M1: Avoidance). The logarithm of the reaction rate (views / (searches + 1)) was used as a score for analysis, and the impact of pricing strategies (e.g., fixed at 5000 JPY, phased discounts) was examined. Results indicated that certain combinations (e.g., T3: Occult/Spiritual - M1: Avoidance) showed relatively high reaction rates. However, the effect of price changes was not uniform, and the total weekly views for this market segment remained around 100-120. Consequently, it was concluded that the scale of this specific market on the online flea market platform is extremely small. Therefore, even with a probabilistic model waiting for "hits" similar to those in certain types of specialized fraud schemes, achieving consistent sales is difficult due to the limited population size. This study serves as a case example of the possibilities and limitations of data-driven approaches in niche markets.
2. Introduction: Conspiracy Theories and Niche Market Potential
2.1. The Spread and Background of Conspiracy Theories in Modern Society
In contemporary society, conspiracy theories are proliferating at an unprecedented rate, facilitated by the internet and social media. These narratives typically allege that secret machinations by powerful individuals or groups lie behind specific events or social phenomena. Themes range испанский large-scale theories like QAnon to those concerning health and medicine. It has been pointed out that the psychology of those who believe in conspiracy theories may be influenced by factors such as anxiety in uncertain situations, a cognitive tendency to seek patterns, or distrust of existing authorities.
2.2. Research Motivation
The starting point for this research was a simple question: "Specialized fraud schemes, often succeed by identifying a very small number of 'susceptible individuals' out of numerous attempts. Might a similar probabilistic structure exist in the sale of products targeting those interested in conspiracy theories?" If so, it was hypothesized that it might be possible to identify which products, under what conditions, would have a higher probability of catching the "target's" eye and attracting interest.
2.3. Purpose of this Study
The purpose of this study is to exploratorily clarify, based on data, how "information combinations" (combinations of topic categories and manipulation categories) and "pricing strategies" of products ostensibly related to conspiracy theories affect user attention (using "reaction rate" as a proxy indicator) in a real-world online flea market environment. Ultimately, it aims to consider the possibilities and limitations of sales strategies in this type of niche market.
3. Research Perspective and Approach: Exploring "Information Combinations"
3.1. Analogy to Drug Discovery
In exploring the characteristics of products that resonate with conspiracy theorists, this study employed an analogy to "structural exploration problems" in drug discovery. In drug development, researchers search for optimal structures with specific effects from countless combinations of chemical structures. Similarly, "products that conspiracy theorists react to" were viewed as a type of "substance with an effect," and the "information combination of a product" (e.g., product theme, appeal points) was considered equivalent to a "chemical structure." Based on this framework, products with various information structures were generated and listed, and their reception was observed to explore more "effective" information structures, i.e., conditions likely to attract attention.
3.2. Balancing Exploration and Exploitation
In the initial research phase, with scarce data on which product combinations would attract attention, it was necessary to efficiently identify promising combinations. Therefore, an approach was adopted that considered the balance between "exploiting" combinations already known to be somewhat popular and "exploring" untried, unknown combinations. This shares a basic conceptual similarity with strategies like Thompson Sampling or the ε-greedy method, known in the field of reinforcement learning, which aim to achieve the best results within a limited number of trials.
4. Research Methodology: Experiments and Data Analysis on an Online Flea Market
4.1. Experimental Field and Period
The experiments for this study were conducted on an anonymous online flea market platform in Japan. The data collection period for individual products was, in principle, one day, and the overall research project spanned approximately one month (late April to late May 2025).
4.2. Product Categorization
To organize and analyze the characteristics of the listed products, they were categorized along the following two axes:
- Table 1: Definition of Main Product Topic Categories (T1-T4) (See Appendix 10.1 for details)
- T1: Technology & Security
- T2: Surveillance, Censorship & Government-Related
- T3: Occult & Spiritual
- T4: Forbidden Books & Knowledge Management
- Table 2: Definition of Product Manipulation Categories (M1-M3) (See Appendix 10.2 for details)
- M1: Avoidance (e.g., avoiding electromagnetic waves)
- M2: Detection (e.g., detecting hidden information)
- M3: Approach/Processing/Amplification (e.g., approaching specific energies, processing information)
4.3. Listing Strategy and Data Collection
- Initial Listing Strategy: Initially, products were selected so that the listing ratio of the T×M combinations (12 in total) would be uniform.
- Sequential Adjustment of Listing Ratios: As data collection progressed, the logarithm of the reaction rate (log(reaction_rate)), a proxy for attention described later, was treated as a likelihood. The listing ratio for each T×M combination was then dynamically changed пропорционально to this value.
- Data Collection Items: Cumulative views (recorded as
watch
in this study) and search hits (recorded assearch
), updated every 24 hours by the online flea market platform, were manually recorded for each product. Since these figures did not change except at the time of updating, daily recording was sufficient. - Listing Timing: New product listings were consistently made at 21:00 daily to eliminate variations in viewing trends due to time of day.
- Sample Size Criterion: Considering the 12 T×M combinations, a total sample size (number of listed products) of N=100 was considered a benchmark, also factoring in the time and effort of listing. The final analysis included 98 products.
4.4. Scoring of Attention
To measure how much attention users paid to product information, the following indicators were defined:
- Reaction Rate (
reaction_rate
): Defined asreaction_rate = watch / (search + 1)
. This represents the proportion of users who actually viewed the individual product page (watch
) among those who encountered the product in search results or elsewhere (search
). Adding 1 to the denominator was to avoid division by zero if search hits were 0 and to mitigate the impact of extremely low search hit counts. - Score (
score
): Defined asscore = log(reaction_rate) - log(0.5)
. Taking the logarithm of the reaction rate was confirmed to make the data distribution closer to a normal distribution (see Figure 1 below), facilitating statistical analysis. Subtractinglog(0.5)
was done to make a 50% reaction rate (half of those who searched viewed the page) the baseline (score 0), making it easier to compare attention levels relatively.
4.5. Verification of Pricing Strategies
The following experiments were conducted to verify the impact of product pricing on attention:
- Initial Pricing: Initially listed products were priced at a fixed 5000 JPY.
- Phased Discount Experiment: For some products, the listing price started at 5000 JPY and was discounted by 100 JPY at daily intervals. Cumulative views and search hits were recorded at each step (data recorded in "Daily Change Data.xlsx").
- Later Price Changes: In the latter half of the research, hoping to elicit more reactions, some products were priced around 3000 JPY, and eventually, all products were priced at 1500 JPY to observe reactions.
- Approach to Analyzing Price/Image Effects: The impact of price changes or product image alterations on attention was considered by applying the principles of DiD (Difference in Difference) analysis, comparing changes in data under different conditions, rather than through rigorous statistical analysis.
4.6. AI-Generated Product Descriptions
Some of the product descriptions were generated using Google's Gemini API. Prompts, in a format similar to the
query
variable in "Conspiracy_Research.ipynb," instructed the AI to generate descriptions aligning with conspiracy-related contexts by combining specified topic (e.g., T3: Occult & Spiritual) and manipulation (e.g., M1: Avoidance) keywords.4.7. Analysis of Day-of-Week Effects
To evaluate the impact of the listing day of the week on attention, scores for each product, adjusted by subtracting the overall average score, were aggregated by day of the week and observed for trends.
5. Results: What Attracted Attention and What Didn't
5.1. Distribution of Attention Scores
First, the distribution of attention scores (
log(reaction_rate) - log(0.5)
) for all products was examined.Figure 1: Q-Q Plot of log(reaction_rate) Vertical Axis: Ordered Values, Horizontal Axis: Theoretical quantiles | Ordered Values | Theoretical quantiles | | :-------------: | :--------------------: | | Approx. -1.7 | Approx. -1.5 | | Approx. -1.2 | Approx. -1.0 | | Approx. -0.8 | Approx. -0.6 | | Approx. -0.6 | Approx. -0.3 | | Approx. -0.1 | Approx. 0.0 | | Approx. 0.1 | Approx. 0.2 | | Approx. 0.3 | Approx. 0.3 | | Approx. 0.4 | Approx. 0.5 | | Approx. 0.5 | Approx. 0.7 | | Approx. 1.0 | Approx. 0.9 | | Approx. 1.5 | Approx. 1.6 | (Source: log(reaction_rate)よし、正規分布の仮定でいいらしい.jpg)
This Q-Q plot shows that the data points for
log(reaction_rate)
fall approximately on a straight line, suggesting that the distribution is close to normal. This supports the validity of statistical analysis using the log-transformed score. Furthermore, a histogram of the scores (generated asdf["score"].hist()
in "Conspiracy_Research.ipynb") showed that the scores were dispersed over a certain range.5.2. "Information Combinations" That Attracted More Attention
Next, an analysis was conducted to determine which "information combinations" in products garnered higher attention scores.
-
Figure 2: Average Attention Score by Topic Vertical Axis: Average Score, Horizontal Axis: Topic | Topic | Average Score (Approx.) | | :---: | :--------------------: | | T1 | Approx. 0.1 | | T2 | Approx. 0.3 | | T3 | Approx. 0.8 | | T4 | Approx. 0.15 | (Source: np.log(reaction_rate)-np.log(0.5)_by_topic.png)
When categorized by main topic, "T3: Occult & Spiritual" showed a markedly higher average score compared to other topics.
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Figure 3: Average Attention Score by Manipulation Category Vertical Axis: Average Score, Horizontal Axis: Subtopic | Subtopic | Average Score (Approx.) | | :------: | :--------------------: | | M1 | Approx. -0.1 | | M2 | Approx. 0.32 | | M3 | Approx. 0.43 | (Source: score_mean_by_subtopic.jpg)
By manipulation category, "M3: Approach/Processing/Amplification" had the highest average score, followed by "M2: Detection," and then "M1: Avoidance." "M1: Avoidance" had a negative average score, indicating a relatively low level of attention.
-
Figure 4: Ranking of Average Attention Scores by Topic × Manipulation Category Vertical Axis: Average Score, Horizontal Axis: Combination of Topic & Subtopic | Combination (T, M) | Average Score (Approx.) | | :-----------------: | :--------------------: | | (T1, M1) | Approx. -1.1 | | (T2, M2) | Approx. -0.2 | | (T4, M1) | Approx. -0.1 | | (T4, M3) | Approx. 0.05 | | (T1, M2) | Approx. 0.08 | | (T2, M3) | Approx. 0.5 | | (T2, M1) | Approx. 0.55 | | (T3, M2) | Approx. 0.7 | | (T3, M3) | Approx. 0.75 | | (T1, M3) | Approx. 0.9 | | (T4, M2) | Approx. 1.0 | | (T3, M1) | Approx. 1.05 | (Source: score_mean_by_topic_and_subtopic.jpg)
For combinations of topic and manipulation categories, pairings like "T3(Occult & Spiritual) - M1(Avoidance)" and "T4(Forbidden Books & Knowledge Management) - M2(Detection)" ranked high, while "T1(Technology & Security) - M1(Avoidance)" and others scored low (see Appendix 10.3 for details). A note in the research log, "M1=Avoidance seems unpopular anyway," supports this trend.
5.3. Impact of Pricing Strategies
The impact of price changes on attention was not uniform.
-
Figure 5: Schematic Comparison of Attention Trends for Fixed-Price vs. Discounted Products (Original Data: "5000 JPY Fixed.jpg", "Daily Change Data.xlsx", "Power of Discounting.jpg")
- Trend Example for 5000 JPY Fixed-Price Products Vertical Axis: Indicator Value (0.0-0.8), Horizontal Axis: Period | Product Name | Initial Value | Mid Value | Final Value | | :------------------------------------------ | :-----------: | :-------: | :---------: | | Ancient Energy Amplifying Pen - Quantum Flow- | Approx. 0.65 | Approx. 0.3 | Approx. 0.25 | | Pen of Truth Evasion | - | - | - | | Knowledge Prohibition Evasion Pen | Approx. 0.22 | Approx. 0.22 | Approx. 0.25 | | Ancient Wisdom Writing Tool - Knowledge Leak Evasion Model | Approx. 0.32 | Approx. 0.55 | Approx. 0.54 | (Source: 5000円固定のもの.jpg)
- Power of Discounting (Count Comparison) Vertical Axis: Count, Horizontal Axis: Indicator Value Range | Indicator Value Range | Discounted (Blue) | Not Discounted (Red) | | :------------------: | :---------------: | :------------------: | | 0.0-0.5 | 1 | 2 | | 0.5-1.0 | 8 | 2 | | 1.0-1.5 | 10 | 0 | | 1.5-2.0 | 9 | 0 | | 2.0-2.5 | 3 | 0 | | 2.5-3.0 | 1 | 0 | (Source: 値下げの威力.jpg)
When prices were fixed at 5000 JPY, many products showed no significant change in attention ("It really doesn't change if you don't discount lol"). In contrast, for product groups that were progressively discounted, some cases showed
impression/search
(an indicator thought to be close to the click-through rate from search results) converging towards a specific value soon after discounting began (around the 3rd day) ("On the other hand, discounting makes impression/search converge to a proper value?"). -
However, as noted in the research log, "Discounted products, if anything, got worse reactions...?", data in "Daily Change Data.xlsx" confirmed that for some products, views and search hits stagnated or even decreased after price reductions.
5.4. Linguistic Trends in Products That Attracted Attention
The research log contains the entry, "Products with good reactions, when vectorized by words, are mostly the same." This suggests commonalities in the words and phrases used in the descriptions of products that garnered high attention. Specifically, when a vector was assigned based on the position of words used from a predefined list (e.g., T1 category keyword list), products with high attention tended to have similar vectors. For example, keywords frequently appearing in conspiracy theories, such as "special technology," "protection from surveillance," "5G interference prevention," "thought control," "HAARP," "QR code nullification," or sensational appeals combining these, as devised in the "Conspiracy Theorist Ballpoint Pen Product Plan," could potentially attract a certain level of interest.
5.5. Data Collection Challenges
During the analysis, a challenge was identified: "Aggregating by T*M alone inevitably results in products that don't get search hits." This indicates that for certain niche combinations, products might not be sufficiently exposed by the online flea market's search algorithm, leading to extremely low view and search hit counts, thus making accurate attention assessment difficult.
6. Discussion: The Small Reality of the Conspiracy Market and Probabilistic Models
6.1. Interpretation of Information Combinations That Attracted High Attention
The results of this study showed a tendency for products related to "T3: Occult & Spiritual" and those appealing to "M3: Approach/Processing/Amplification" manipulations to gather relatively high attention. The combination "T3-M1 (Occult & Spiritual - Avoidance)" also scored highly. These tendencies might be interpretable in relation to the psychological characteristics of conspiracy believers described in the "Comprehensive Analysis of Modern Conspiracy Theories." For instance, the "Occult & Spiritual" theme might appeal to an interest in phenomena unexplained by existing science or authority, or to a desire for special knowledge (a sense of being chosen). The "Avoidance" manipulation could resonate with vague anxieties and threat perceptions regarding society or technology (e.g., defense against electromagnetic waves, escape from surveillance), while "Approach/Processing/Amplification" might be perceived as fulfilling desires to access hidden truths or special powers.
6.2. Complexity of Pricing Strategies
Regarding pricing strategies, the results showed that simple discounting did not always lead to increased attention. The fact that some products experienced worse reactions after discounting suggests that price might function as a signal of quality or trustworthiness, or that the price sensitivity of the target demographic is not uniform. Alternatively, the initial pricing (5000 JPY) might have been significantly outside the typical price range for this niche market, thus limiting the effectiveness of discounts.
6.3. Market Size Estimation and Validation of the "Probabilistic" Model
One of the most crucial findings of this research relates to market size. The research log states, "Even with discounting, weekly views settled around 100-120. This reasonably implies that only about this many people on the online flea market react to such comprehensively sprinkled conspiracy-related words." Based on this observation, the active user base (market size) on the online flea market studied, who proactively react to the keyword "conspiracy theory" and search/view related products, was estimated to be extremely small, around 100 individuals on a weekly basis.
This market size estimation casts significant doubt on the validity of the initial research motivation: a "probabilistic business model similar to specialized fraud." Specialized fraud schemes profit by reaching a certain number of "targets" through a vast number of attempts (e.g., phone calls), even with a very low success rate. However, in the market targeted by this study, the potential customer base (population) is absolutely too small. Therefore, even if the probability of attracting attention could be somewhat increased, translating this into actual sales (y=1, i.e., a sale occurring) is considered extremely difficult. To quote the research log, the conclusion is that "the population is too small for a realized value (y=1) to be feasible." If the market size were, for example, around 100,000, a 0.01% reaction rate could be expected to yield 10 sales, but this premise does not hold in the current situation.
6.4. Effectiveness and Limitations of This Research Approach
The approach of exploring "information combinations," using an analogy to drug discovery, demonstrated some effectiveness in probing product appeal points and the interests of the target demographic in a niche market. Using proxy indicators like reaction rates allows for an understanding of attention trends even when actual sales data is scarce. However, the limitations of this approach also became clear. If the market size itself is a major constraint for business viability, then optimizing information structure, no matter how well, is unlikely to lead to substantial results.
6.5. Fixation on "Pens" as a Product and Other Possibilities
The research log includes the insight, "I see products like 'CMC' are selling, maybe I should have sourced and sold those instead of fixating on pens." This suggests that the "pen" product category, which was the main focus of this study, might not have been the most in-demand item in this niche market. If a similar analytical approach had been tried with products more aligned with market needs (e.g., health accessories, also mentioned in the log), different results might have been obtained. However, as the researcher pointed out, delving that far would go beyond the scope of a hobby and become a full-fledged business, so it was not pursued in this study.
7. Conclusion and Future Outlook
7.1. Summary of This Study
This study attempted to identify conditions (information combinations, pricing) for maximizing the attention received by conspiracy-related products on an online flea market, using a data-driven approach. The results confirmed that certain combinations of topics (Occult & Spiritual) and manipulation categories (Avoidance, Approach, etc.) tended to show relatively high reaction rates. However, the impact of price changes was complex and did not yield consistent effects. The most significant conclusion was that the scale of this niche market on the online flea market in question is extremely small, suggesting that applying a probabilistic "hit-or-miss" business model would make achieving stable sales difficult.
7.2. Implications of the Statistical Approach
This research demonstrated that even in niche markets with limited data, setting proxy indicators like reaction rates and employing exploratory approaches (experimental design, sequential improvement) can provide certain insights into market characteristics and consumer interest directions. Statistical thinking and data analysis can serve as a "compass" to aid decision-making even in such tentative situations.
7.3. Future Outlook
Based on the findings of this study, the following future prospects can be considered: * Validation on Larger Platforms: Conducting similar research on platforms with a larger user base might alleviate market size constraints and yield different results. * Application to Different Niche Markets: The "information combination exploration" approach used in this study could potentially be applied to product development and marketing strategies in various niche markets other than conspiracy theories. * Long-Term Observation: Based on the research log's reflection that "conspiracy business... it should be optimal to leave [products] there so they catch the eye when an idiot searches," observing product attention and sales over a longer period might yield different insights.
8. Research Limitations
This study has several limitations: * Limited Scope of Platform: The experiments were confined to a specific online flea market, and the results may not be generalizable to other platforms or the market as a whole. * Use of Proxy Indicators: "Reaction rate" of attention was used as the primary evaluation metric, rather than actual "sales" data, so it does not necessarily directly correlate with sales performance. * Sample Size Constraints: The number of products analyzed was 98, and the estimated market size was also small (around 100 weekly users), limiting statistical power. * Lack of Word-Level Analysis: Detailed analysis of the impact of individual words or phrases in product descriptions on attention, using advanced text mining or natural language processing, was not conducted.
9. References
- BBC News Japan. (2020, August 29). "QAnon to wa nani ka: Inbouron shuudan no shoutai to mokuteki, kikensei" [What is QAnon: The identity, purpose, and danger of the conspiracy theory group].
- Waseda University Institute for Advanced Social Sciences. (2022, August 1). "【Kenkyuu Shoukai】Inbouron wa naze hirogaru no ka? Sono shinri mekanizumu ni semaru" [(Research Introduction) Why do conspiracy theories spread? Approaching the psychological mechanism].
- Brotherton, R., French, C. C., & Pickering, A. D. (2013). Measuring belief in conspiracy theories: The generic conspiracist beliefs scale. Frontiers in psychology, 4, 279.
10. Appendix
10.1. Table: Detailed Definitions of Main Product Topic Categories (T1-T4)
| Category ID | Category Name | Summary/Keyword Examples | | :---------- | :------------------- | :--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | T1 | Technology & Security | EMF, 5G, electromagnetic waves, radiation, shielding, communication, encryption, software, programs, biometric authentication, etc. | | T2 | Surveillance, Censorship & Government-Related | Surveillance, censorship, government secrets, secrets, documents, records, government documents, etc. | | T3 | Occult & Spiritual | Orb detection, spiritual phenomena, pendulums, ancient civilizations, alien contact, energy, crystals, chakras, quantum consciousness, etc. | | T4 | Forbidden Books & Knowledge Management | Ancient texts, forbidden books, ancient languages, shortwave (retro technology), etc. |
10.2. Table: Detailed Definitions of Product Manipulation Categories (M1-M3)
| Category ID | Category Name | Summary/Keyword Examples | | :---------- | :--------------------------- | :--------------------------------------------------------- | | M1 | Avoidance | Shielding, soundproofing, prevention, avoidance (e.g., avoiding negative energy) | | M2 | Detection | Detectors, finders, detection devices, deciphering (e.g., detecting hidden information) | | M3 | Approach/Processing/Amplification | Processing, amplification, magnification (e.g., approaching and amplifying ancient knowledge) |
10.3. Table: Summary of Main Analysis Results (Examples of High/Low Average Attention Scores by Topic × Manipulation Category)
| Combination (T-M) | Average Score (Approx.) | Trend | | :---------------- | :---------------------- | :----------------- | | T3 - M1 | High | Attracts attention | | T4 - M2 | High | Attracts attention | | T1 - M3 | Medium-High | Relatively attentive | | T2 - M3 | Medium | Somewhat attentive | | T1 - M1 | Low (Negative) | Less attention | | T2 - M1 | Low (Negative) | Less attention | (Note: The scores above are approximate values from the figures and actual precise numbers are based on the original data.)
10.4. Representative Examples of AI-Generated Product Descriptions
Basic Prompt Structure Example: "I want to sell {word} at a high price. Combine one from {maintopic} and {manipulation} to create a product description and an appropriate price. Respond in the format: 'Main Topic Category (T1-T4)':'Manipulation Category (M1-M3)':'Product Name':'Product Description':'Price' only once. Absolutely adhere to the specified {maintopic} and {manipulation}. No other output is necessary. Respond in Japanese." (Placeholders like
{word}
would be filled with "ballpoint pen,"{maintopic}
with "T3," and{manipulation}
with "M1," etc., as specific instructions.)Generated Example (Combination T3 - M1): * "Thought Shield Ballpoint Pen: This pen was specially created to powerfully block and evade external negative thoughts and spiritual interference through the sacred act of writing. Based on ancient esoteric arts and quantum consciousness theory, a special energy shield sealed inside the pen protects your thought space and personal field. Using it when signing important contracts or for work requiring concentration helps defend against malice and unnecessary energy, maintaining clear thought. The act of holding it itself becomes a powerful barrier, effectively evading unnecessary energies in daily life." * "Quantum Shield Energy Pen: The act of writing with this pen deploys a quantum shield around your energy field. It is expected to block and evade negative energies and unnecessary external influences, and to balance your chakras. This is a limited-production item using special manufacturing methods and rare materials."
- Table 1: Definition of Main Product Topic Categories (T1-T4) (See Appendix 10.1 for details)
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@ ce2820ce:8cf20d40
2025-05-30 10:07:05If you insist that my worldview join your pessimistic outlook on life, and you argue with me with a vengeance until I sympathize with your miserable failing hopeless vision of the future...than fight me!
Go ahead, give me all your reasons why I should fear:::Climate Change. Political Injustice. Too much screen time. The Dangers of social media. Fentanyl in my Cheerios. Glyphosate in my weed. Plastic in my brain. Estrogen in my receipt paper.
And the list goes on:::Nuclear War. The Ominous Second Coming of Hitler. The Genocide of Gaza. The Anti-semitism. The Ultra-Rich After my Red Meat.
And while I'm at it, how about the thousands of other “micro-negativities” that are casually beaten into our psyche all day. Pleasure and punishment in the same sadistic act. Warning labels and threats of death on everything from clothing to candy wrappers.
Don't get me wrong. I understand all the reasons why the alarm bells are going off. I'm most definitely thinking about the healthiest possible long term future for my kids, and for many generations to come.
We are not done here, is what I have to say to that. And if you narcissitic, self-loathing, pathologically empathetic descendants of hippies think that this is the last generation to ever walk the Earth, than all I ask is; Go Kill Yourselves Now, and spare us all the trouble of your self-perpetuated miseries.
If you have no mind for the future, and you don't plan on having children, than you better well keep your traps shut and go enjoy the fuck out of this glorious age of excess that we are currently abiding in, until its gone. Because what do you care if it is? You're not leaving any future generations to the dystopia, so what do you have to feel guilty about?
If you do have a mind for the future, and you have or would like to have children of your own, then my heartfelt response to you is that you should do your utmost to focus on the solutions, the bright spots, the gratitudes of life and the progress that humans have made and that we will continue to make. There is no stopping now.
There are no doubt terrifying problems and apocalyptic potentials for Planet Earth in the coming centuries, but this pattern of preaching fear HAS GOT TO STOP. All we are doing is entertaining negativity; giving far too much credit to the forces of destruction and to the demons of our own dissatisfactions.
Too many generations are now embracing a culture of hopelessness. We've pounded their heads full of horrible news for their future – climate change, diseases, technology woes – and we continue to do so on a daily basis. We pontificate about skyrocketing mental health and suicide rates among teens, but all we do is point fingers and shout platitudes at those to whom we offload the responsibility of our kids to.
So do the future a favor, and start thinking about one that you might actually enjoy living in. If you're already having that problem – the one about enjoying things – than figure out what the fuck it is that is keeping you from envisioning a positive future. What went wrong in your own life that made you so depressed and unhappy? Misery loves company, we all know that, and it seems that the only way to relate to my peers these days is through a semi-informed rant about the stresses and horrors of the modern world.
The problem is, we don't stick to our guns when it comes to those convictions. We complain about social media, but we still use it everyday. We put AI on blast and expound its humanity ending potentials, while we ask it questions about our astrology and our skin conditions.
So if you are going to spread the murder pron, and fill your stories up with the perpetual shock and fear, in-between selfies of you enjoying your luxurious life, than you are living a duplicitous and dangerous path.
You feel guilty for your privileged life, and the way you assuage that is by expounding your concern for the ills and unfairness of the outside world, and by pretending to “put in the work” to “heal our wounds” or destroy the patriarchy by smearing your big ass across my Instagram feeds. Here, let me help you.
Your Suffering isn't Saving Anybody. It's only pulling a drag net through your mind's ability to let happiness and love into your life. Don't take pride in your own wounds, as you do not really wish them on anybody else, and you certainly don't want your kids to feel the trauma's you are trying to get over from your own childhood.
So if you think “pessimism is the only morally acceptable emotion” when it comes to thinking about the future, than I will fight you tooth and nail to maintain my own delusion that the future is still bright. If you want to tell my kids that Hitler is coming, that the sea levels are rising, and that AI will end their lives, than I will beat your misery to a bloody pulp, and try and help you see a future worth living.
The point is, I've lost friends, and watched love ones fall into this “addiction” to the broadcast news negativity. It is a bad habit that must be broken, as we are losing our ability to trust, and losing our faith in our own power. If you isolate yourself with misery, than you will never feel emboldened to overcome anything, and you will never learn what love can do.
Look at the future. If you don't see any hope, than you better find some. It takes courage to move forward, and it takes courage to kill yourself. It takes only cowardice to remain in the muddled middle-ground of in-action and crippling in-decision.
Make the move, and tell me how it goes. I’m here to help.
With Love,
-§parrow
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@ 7459d333:f207289b
2025-05-30 07:57:07Tokenization of physical assets sounds kinda dumb. Say you tokenize a house. What happens if you loose the private keys? What happens if the last “legal” (on paper) owner claims it? Basically, the tokenization is useless. The house is still subject to whatever jurisdiction is in. And the smart contract can say whatever, but that does not make it true.
What's not so obvious is for virtual assets or service tokens. A good example is cashu. Where tokenizing Bitcoin has the advantages of allowing the users to transact with it “without the mint's permission”. This could be applied similarly for concert tickets or API credits.
For example, the biggest problem of concert ticket reselling is trusting that other copies of the PDF with the QR code won't be used before the one you bought. Or that you won't have problems at the entry because the ticket is not in your name. A mint that allows users to transact between them preventing double spending and fungibility would solve this.
But for some reason shitcoiners are obsessed on tokenizing physical assets or company shares. Where the only benefit that tokenizing could bring is avoiding regulations (until they update the laws).
So, what's your take on tokenization?
https://stacker.news/items/992519
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@ 29313cc9:a6bf155e
2025-05-30 06:35:56I thought i'd experiment with this Nostr blogging thing and write a short article on the state of Meshtastic and its alternatives.
For years Meshtastic was the only game in town, there wasn't a lot of users but the authors kept plugging away and it has become a thriving ecosystem of open source hardware, software, tools and social scene.
Meshtastic has always been focused on node to node messaging, in particular one of the use cases specifically mentioned was hiking in the wilderness or skiing in the mountains and being able to use these devices off-grid, perhaps even without a phone to communicate with one and other. The project does have a few other features like telemetry, remote admin, packet data etc but the messaging was the focus. Because of this focus, the core functionality needs to be built into the firmware of these low powered devices like ESP32 for example. This restricts what can be done in terms of CPU power and storage, but also makes synchronization between device and phone cumbersome.
Unfortunately, as a messaging platform, Meshtastic still struggles even after all these years. Message delivery and routing are fairly unreliable, 95% of conversations go along the lines of "hello, test, anyone there?". Now I should mention, if you have a very good signal to your peers the reliability can be good, but even then its not a guarantee.
Early on in the Meshtastic journey I stumbled upon a similar project named Reticulum which can utilize the same LoRa based hardware but aims to be a more comprehensive platform for decentralized communications and currently requires a computer or raspberry pi to run the Python backend alongside the LoRa hardware as a radio. Reticulum has historically been a less polished UI experience and a little idiosyncratic in its design which has probably hindered its adoption a little. But the main difference to Meshtastic is Reticulum requires bigger hardware and is less suitable for remote installations, solar powered setups etc. My understanding is once v1.0 has been released (soon) there may be efforts to port the code to native C which may allow hardware nodes to run as repeaters on their own.
More recently a new project has been announced called Meshcore, which is more closely aligned with Meshtastic than Reticulum, Meshcore makes several important improvements to message delivery and routing in an attempt to improve the reliability of the core feature, messaging. Popular Youtube channel Andy Kirby has been central in helping Meshcore gain popularity and I think he may be involved in the commercial aspects of the project. The smartphone apps and website mapping and flasher tools are a bit more polished with Meshcore.
One of the biggest contributors in the space is Liam Cottle who has created mapping websites for Meshtastic & Meshcore, he also built the Meshcore smartphone app and built the fantastic Reticulum MeshChat UI.
With all this new competition Meshtastic appears to be pushing out more frequent updates and whilst they have been introducing more bugs into the software it is nice to see some faster progress.
In my opinion Reticulum is probably the most interesting project with the most potential, but they do need to get the core routing engine running standalone on low powered hardware for the project to expand to more hardware/radio focused users.
That is all. Mesh on!
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@ 3770c235:16042bcc
2025-05-30 05:25:21Let’s clear something up: frugal living isn’t about eating ramen every night or never treating yourself. It’s about being intentional with your money so you can enjoy what matters more. Think of it like editing a movie—you cut the boring scenes to highlight the best parts. You don’t have to give up lattes, travel, or Friday pizza nights. You just need a few clever tricks to make your money stretch further while keeping the fun intact.
Take my friend Alex, for example. Last year, he felt overwhelmed by credit card debt but didn’t want to give up his weekend hikes or coffee shop visits. By tweaking a few habits—like auditing subscriptions and prioritizing experiences—he paid off $5,000 in debt and still took a camping trip with his kids. The secret? Small, intentional choices that add up. In this guide, we’ll share practical, joy-friendly hacks to help you save smarter. Plus, we’ll mention sites like Crown Money—a budgeting service that makes tracking your progress effortless—so you can focus on living well, not pinching pennies.
**1. Audit Your Subscriptions (Yes, Even That One) ** You know that streaming service you haven’t opened since 2022? Or the gym membership you keep “meaning to use”? Those small charges add up fast. A recent study found the average person spends 219/month on forgotten subscriptions—that’s over 2,600 a year!
• The Hack: Every 3 months, review your subscriptions. Ask: “Do I actually use this?” Cancel anything that doesn’t spark joy. • Pro Tip: Use Crown Money to see all your subscriptions in one place. The app automatically flags recurring charges, so you don’t have to hunt through bank statements. You’ll even get a nudge like, “You’ve paid $14.99/month for ‘Premium Yoga App’—last used 6 months ago. Cancel?” Real-Life Example: Sarah canceled two unused streaming services and a meditation app she forgot about. She saved $45/month—enough to fund her new hobby: pottery classes. “I didn’t realize how much clutter I was paying for,” she said. “Now I’m learning to make mugs instead of binge-watching shows I don’t even like.”
**2. Embrace the “Joy Budget” (Seriously, Budget for Fun) ** Frugality fails when it feels like deprivation. Instead, carve out guilt-free money for things you love. Behavioral scientists call this “temptation bundling”—pairing savings goals with rewards to stay motivated.
• The Hack: Allocate 10–15% of your budget to a “Joy Fund” for hobbies, dining out, or travel. • Pro Tip: In Crown Money, create a custom category like “Adventure Fund” or “Treat Yourself.” Set a monthly limit and track how much you’ve saved for that weekend getaway or concert ticket. The app’s visual progress bars turn saving into a game—imagine watching your “Beach Trip 2024” fund grow with every dollar.
Real-Life Example: Mark loves trying new restaurants. By setting a $100/month “Dining Out” budget in Crown Money, he enjoys date nights without overspending. “I used to feel guilty splurging on sushi,” he shared. “Now I know it’s part of the plan, so I savor every bite.”
- Master Mindful Spending (Ask This One Question) Before buying anything non-essential, ask: “Will this add value to my life, or just clutter?” Retail therapy might feel good in the moment, but that $50 impulse sweater often ends up forgotten in the back of your closet.
• The Hack: Implement a 24-hour “cooling-off” period for impulse buys. If you still want it tomorrow, go for it! • Pro Tip: Use Crown Money to review your spending trends. The app’s monthly reports show where your money goes, helping you spot habits (like late-night online shopping) that don’t align with your goals. Set up alerts like, “You’ve spent $75 on ‘Miscellaneous’ this week—want to check in?” Real-Life Example: Lisa avoided buying a $200 jacket on impulse. After 24 hours, she realized she didn’t need it—and put the money toward a weekend camping trip instead. “I almost bought something I’d wear once,” she laughed. “Now I have photos of sunsets instead of buyer’s remorse.”
- DIY and Swap (Your Wallet Will Thank You) Frugal living thrives on creativity. Swap buying new for: • DIY solutions: Make coffee at home (a $5 bag of beans lasts weeks!), repair clothes, or grow herbs instead of buying them. • Community swaps: Trade books, tools, or skills with friends (e.g., “I’ll babysit if you help me fix my bike”).
Pro Tip: Track your monthly expenses in Crown Money. Create a category like “Homemade Wins” and watch how small choices (like brewing your latte) add up over time. For example, skipping a daily 4 coffee shop visit saves 120/month—that’s a weekend road trip! Real-Life Example: Jake started meal prepping lunches instead of buying 15 salads. He saves 300/month—enough for a monthly massage. “I’m eating healthier and funding self-care,” he said. “Plus, my coworkers are jealous of my teriyaki bowls.”
- Prioritize Experiences Over “Stuff” (Happiness Science Approved) Research shows experiences bring longer-lasting joy than material purchases. A 2023 study found people who spent money on concerts, trips, or classes reported 30% higher life satisfaction than those who bought gadgets or clothes.
Instead of splurging on gadgets, invest in: • Free/low-cost adventures: Hiking, picnics, game nights, or exploring local festivals. • Shared moments: Host a potluck instead of dining out. Pro Tip: Use Crown Money to set a goal like “Summer Adventure Fund.” Allocate $50/month, and let the app remind you to fund it automatically. Watching that fund grow feels like planning a vacation in slow motion. Real-Life Example: Maria and her partner skipped a pricey vacation and rented a cozy cabin nearby. They saved $1,200 and still made memories roasting marshmallows under the stars. “We thought we needed a fancy trip to connect,” she said. “Turns out, all we needed was a fire pit and no Wi-Fi.”
Key Takeaways • Cut the clutter: Cancel unused subscriptions and track them with tools like Crown Money. • Budget for joy: Allocate guilt-free money for hobbies and experiences. • Pause before purchasing: Avoid impulse buys with a 24-hour rule. • Get creative: DIY, swap, and repurpose to save without sacrifice. • Invest in experiences: They’re richer than “stuff” and often cheaper.
FAQs: Frugal Living Made Simple Q: How do I stay motivated to save? A: Tie savings to specific goals (e.g., “Save $500 for a weekend trip”). Apps like Crown Money let you visualize progress, which feels rewarding!
Q: Can I be frugal and still socialize? A: Absolutely! Host DIY spa nights, picnic potlucks, or free museum days. Use Crown Money to set a “Social Fun” budget and stick to it.
Q: What if I slip up and overspend? A: No guilt! Adjust your budget next month. Crown Money makes it easy to shift funds between categories.
Q: How do I track small savings from DIY habits? A: Create a custom category in Crown Money (e.g., “Homemade Wins”) and log your savings manually. Watching it grow is addictive!
Q: What if I have a financial emergency? A: Build a “Safety Net” category in Crown Money. Start small—even $20/month adds up. The app’s reminders keep you consistent.
**Final Thoughts: Frugal Is Freedom ** Frugal living isn’t about saying “no”—it’s about saying “yes” to what truly lights you up. By trimming the financial fat (goodbye, unused subscriptions!), budgeting for joy, and getting creative, you can save money and savor life’s best moments. Tools like Crown Money are your allies here. They handle the tracking and nudging, so you can focus on the fun parts: planning adventures, trying new recipes, or laughing with friends over a board game. Remember: the goal isn’t perfection. It’s progress. Start small, celebrate wins, and let your frugal habits grow naturally. Your wallet (and your inner joy-seeker) will thank you.
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@ 502ab02a:a2860397
2025-05-30 01:14:10ย้อนกลับไปปี 2014 ชายชื่อ Patrick O. Brown ศาสตราจารย์ชีววิทยาเชิงโมเลกุลแห่งมหาวิทยาลัยแตนฟอร์ด ตัดสินใจลาออกจากเส้นทางวิชาการสายหลัก เพื่อมาก่อตั้งบริษัทที่เขาเชื่อว่าจะเปลี่ยนโลก Impossible Foods
ดร. แพทริค โอ. บราวน์ (Patrick O. Brown) เป็นนักชีวเคมีและนักธุรกิจชาวอเมริกันและศาสตราจารย์กิตติคุณด้านชีวเคมีแห่งมหาวิทยาลัยสแตนฟอร์ด เขาได้รับปริญญาตรี แพทยศาสตรบัณฑิต และปรัชญาดุษฎีบัณฑิตด้านชีวเคมีจากมหาวิทยาลัยชิคาโก หลังจากนั้น เขาได้เข้ารับการฝึกอบรมด้านกุมารเวชศาสตร์ที่โรงพยาบาล Children's Memorial ในชิคาโก ในช่วงหลังปริญญาเอก เขาได้ทำงานวิจัยเกี่ยวกับกลไกที่ไวรัส HIV และเรโทรไวรัสอื่น ๆ แทรกยีนของพวกมันเข้าสู่จีโนมของเซลล์ที่ติดเชื้อ ซึ่งช่วยนำไปสู่การพัฒนายาใหม่ในการต่อสู้กับโรคนี้
ในช่วงต้นทศวรรษ 1990 ดร. บราวน์และทีมงานของเขาที่สแตนฟอร์ดได้พัฒนาเทคโนโลยี DNA microarray ซึ่งเป็นเครื่องมือที่ช่วยให้นักวิจัยสามารถวิเคราะห์การแสดงออกของยีนทั้งหมดในจีโนมได้พร้อมกัน เทคโนโลยีนี้มีบทบาทสำคัญในการวิจัยทางชีววิทยาและการแพทย์ โดยเฉพาะในการจำแนกประเภทของมะเร็งและการพยากรณ์โรค
นอกจากนี้ ดร. บราวน์ยังเป็นผู้ร่วมก่อตั้ง Public Library of Science (PLOS) ซึ่งเป็นองค์กรไม่แสวงหาผลกำไรที่มุ่งเน้นการเผยแพร่ผลงานวิจัยทางวิทยาศาสตร์ให้เข้าถึงได้ฟรีและเปิดกว้างต่อสาธารณะ
ในปี 2011 ดร. บราวน์ได้ก่อตั้ง Impossible Foods โดยมีเป้าหมายในการสร้างผลิตภัณฑ์เนื้อสัตว์จากพืชที่มีรสชาติและเนื้อสัมผัสคล้ายเนื้อสัตว์จริง เพื่อลดผลกระทบต่อสิ่งแวดล้อมจากการเลี้ยงสัตว์ เขาและทีมงานได้ค้นพบว่าโมเลกุล heme ซึ่งเป็นส่วนประกอบที่ให้รสชาติและกลิ่นเฉพาะของเนื้อสัตว์ สามารถผลิตจากพืชได้ โดยเฉพาะจากรากถั่วเหลือง พวกเขาใช้เทคนิคทางวิศวกรรมชีวภาพในการผลิต heme จากยีสต์ที่ได้รับการดัดแปลงพันธุกรรม และนำมาผสมกับโปรตีนจากพืชเพื่อสร้างผลิตภัณฑ์ที่มีลักษณะคล้ายเนื้อสัตว์
ดร. บราวน์ได้รับการยอมรับอย่างกว้างขวางในวงการวิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี โดยได้รับรางวัลและเกียรติคุณหลายรายการ รวมถึงการเป็นสมาชิกของ National Academy of Sciences และ National Academy of Medicine ของสหรัฐอเมริกา ด้วยความมุ่งมั่นในการแก้ไขปัญหาสิ่งแวดล้อมผ่านนวัตกรรมทางอาหาร ดร. แพทริค โอ. บราวน์ ได้กลายเป็นบุคคลสำคัญที่มีบทบาทในการเปลี่ยนแปลงวิธีการบริโภคอาหารของโลกในศตวรรษที่ 21
เป้าหมายของเขาไม่ใช่เพียงแค่ทำอาหาร แต่คือ "ยุติการทำปศุสัตว์ให้หมดสิ้นภายในปี 2035"
เขาไม่ได้พูดลอย ๆ เขาลงมือ “ทำเนื้อจากพืช” ด้วยเทคโนโลยีที่ซับซ้อนระดับวิศวกรรมชีวภาพ นำโปรตีนจากถั่วเหลือง + น้ำมันมะพร้าว + เทคเจอร์ + สารเติมแต่งอีกชุดใหญ่ มาผ่านกระบวนการแปรรูปจนดูคล้ายเนื้อย่าง แต่ที่ทำให้ “มันดูเหมือนเนื้อจริง” คือการเติม ฮีม (Heme) เข้าไปสารประกอบที่อยู่ในเลือดและเนื้อสัตว์จริง ๆ
Impossible Foods คือบริษัทที่ไม่ได้เพียง “ปลอมรสชาติเนื้อ” แต่พยายามสร้างเนื้อจากพืช ให้เหมือนเนื้อจริงที่สุดเท่าที่วิทยาศาสตร์จะเอื้อมถึง จุดขายที่ทำให้แบรนด์นี้ดังเปรี้ยงก็คือสิ่งที่เรียกว่า “ฮีม” (heme) หรือโมเลกุลเหล็กในเลือด ซึ่งเป็นตัวการหลักที่ทำให้เนื้อวัวมีกลิ่นและรสเฉพาะตัวเวลาถูกย่างจนหอมฉุย
ดร.แพทริค บราวน์ และทีมนักวิจัยของเขาเริ่มจากการค้นหาว่า “อะไรในพืช” ให้กลิ่นคล้ายเลือด พวกเขาพบว่า “Leghemoglobin” ซึ่งอยู่ในรากถั่วเหลือง มีโครงสร้างใกล้เคียงกับ Hemoglobin ในเลือดสัตว์มากที่สุด จุดพลิกของเทคโนโลยีนี้คือ การผลิตเลกฮีโมโกลบินจากพืชจำนวนมาก ทำไม่ได้โดยการถอนรากถั่วมาทุบคั้น แต่ต้องอาศัยวิศวกรรมชีวภาพขั้นสูง
พวกเขาจึงใช้กระบวนการที่เรียกว่า “fermentation by genetically modified yeast” หรือการหมักโดยยีสต์ที่ผ่านการดัดแปลงพันธุกรรม โดยนำยีนของพืชที่สร้าง leghemoglobin ไปใส่ในยีสต์ (Pichia pastoris) แล้วเลี้ยงยีสต์นั้นในถังหมักขนาดใหญ่แบบเดียวกับโรงเบียร์ พอยีสต์ขยายตัว มันจะผลิตเลกฮีโมโกลบินออกมาจำนวนมาก จากนั้นจึงสกัดออกมาผสมกับโปรตีนจากพืช เช่น โปรตีนจากถั่วเหลือง หรือโปรตีนจากมันฝรั่ง
เพื่อให้เนื้อสัมผัสคล้ายเนื้อจริง ทีม Impossible Foods ยังใช้เทคนิคอื่นร่วมด้วย เช่น -Coconut Oil และ Sunflower Oil เป็นแหล่งไขมันที่ให้สัมผัส “ฉ่ำๆ” คล้ายไขมันเนื้อวัว -Methylcellulose สารที่ช่วยทำให้ส่วนผสมเกาะตัวเป็นก้อน คล้ายเนื้อบดจริง -Natural Flavors กลิ่นที่สกัดจากพืชหลายชนิด เพื่อเลียนแบบกลิ่นไหม้จากเนื้อย่าง
ทุกอย่างถูกผสมให้เข้ากัน ผ่านเครื่องอัดขึ้นรูป (extrusion) ที่ทำให้เนื้อออกมามี “เส้นใย” คล้ายกล้ามเนื้อวัว หรือหมู เมื่อโดนความร้อน โปรตีนจะเปลี่ยนโครงสร้าง (denature) และมีกลิ่นออกมาคล้ายๆ เนื้อย่างจริงๆ พร้อมน้ำสีแดงคล้ายเลือด (จาก heme) ไหลเยิ้ม ซึ่งคือไอเดียที่ทำให้ Impossible Burger เป็นมากกว่าแค่ “เบอร์เกอร์ผัก”
ผลลัพธ์คือ… เบอร์เกอร์พืชที่มีเลือดซึม สีชมพูดู juicy และกลิ่นไหม้ติดกระทะ จนคนกินรู้สึกเหมือนกำลังย่างเนื้อจริง ๆ
ฟังดูอัศจรรย์ใช่ไหม? แต่...การเติมฮีมจากยีสต์ตัดต่อพันธุกรรมลงในอาหาร ไม่เคยมีในธรรมชาติมาก่อน ในปี 2017 Impossible Foods ต้องยื่นเรื่องต่อ FDA เพื่อขออนุมัติว่า leghemoglobin จากยีสต์ GMO “ปลอดภัย”
แต่ในตอนนั้น FDA ตอบว่า “ยังไม่มีข้อมูลเพียงพอ” ว่าจะไม่ก่อให้เกิดภูมิแพ้หรือผลข้างเคียงในระยะยาว (ใช่แล้วจ้ะ... สารที่อยู่ในเบอร์เกอร์ชื่อดัง ถูกขายก่อนที่ FDA จะสรุปว่าปลอดภัยเต็มร้อย)
แล้วในที่สุด ปี 2019 FDA ก็ให้ผ่านแบบ “GRAS” (Generally Recognized As Safe) โดยใช้ข้อมูลจากการทดลองภายในของบริษัทเอง ไม่ใช่การทดสอบอิสระจากภายนอก
เฮียว่าอันนี้ต้องมีใครสะกิดในใจแล้วล่ะว่า “เรากำลังเอาอะไรเข้าปากกันแน่?”
แม้จะฟังดูเท่ ไฮเทค และดีต่อสิ่งแวดล้อม แต่ก็มีคำถามจากนักวิจารณ์มากมายว่า… แท้จริงแล้วอาหารเหล่านี้เป็นอาหาร “เพื่อสิ่งแวดล้อม” หรือเป็นเพียง “ภาพฝันที่ควบคุมโดยบริษัทเทคโนโลยียักษ์ใหญ่”?
มันเต็มไปด้วยคำถาม คำถาม และ คำถามนะสิครับ
ในเมื่อ Impossible Foods ได้รับเงินลงทุนหลายรอบจากบริษัทยักษ์อย่าง Google Ventures, UBS, และ Temasek (ของรัฐบาลสิงคโปร์) บอกตรง ๆ ว่า เงินแบบนี้ไม่ได้หวังแค่เปลี่ยนโลกแต่มันมาพร้อมเป้าหมายที่ชัดมาก การสร้างสิทธิบัตรอาหารใหม่ ที่ควบคุมการผลิตจากต้นน้ำยันปลายน้ำ อย่าลืมว่า ยีสต์ที่ผ่านการดัดแปลงพันธุกรรม หรือ GMO yeast นั้นถือเป็นสิทธิบัตร ถ้าใครจะผลิต Heme แบบเดียวกันก็ต้องขออนุญาตจาก Impossible Foods หรือไม่ก็โดนฟ้องได้เลย แปลว่า “เทคโนโลยีรสชาติเนื้อ” ไม่ได้เป็นมรดกของโลก แต่อยู่ในมือบริษัทไม่กี่แห่ง
ยิ่งไปกว่านั้น อุปกรณ์การผลิตต้องลงทุนสูง ต้องมีโรงหมัก ปฏิบัติการชีวภาพ การควบคุมความปลอดภัยที่เข้มข้น จึงไม่ใช่ใครๆ ก็ทำได้ ที่น่ากลัวคือ ถ้าเมื่อวันหนึ่งเนื้อสัตว์ธรรมชาติถูกทำให้กลายเป็น “ปีศาจสิ่งแวดล้อม” หรือ "ตัวเชื้อโรคผ่านอาหาร" โดยนโยบายรัฐและการตลาดของกลุ่มเทคฯ อาหารที่ประชาชนกินได้อาจเหลือแค่ “สิ่งที่ผลิตโดยมีสิทธิบัตร” เท่านั้น
เมื่อถึงวันนั้น ประชาชนจะสิ้นความชอบธรรมในการ “เลี้ยงวัวไว้กินเอง” ไม่ได้อีกต่อไป เพราะอาจโดนห้ามจากข้อกฎหมายคาร์บอน กฎหมายการกักกันเชื้อ ประชาชนจะ “เก็บพืชริมรั้วมาทำอาหาร” ไม่ได้อีกต่อไป เพราะกลิ่นไม่เหมือนเนื้อแลปที่เคยชิน และประชาชนจะ “ทำอาหารเองในบ้าน” ไม่ได้อีกต่อไป เพราะระบบเสพติดรสเนื้อเทียมจะทำให้คนเบือนหน้าจากอาหารจริง
ในขณะที่ Impossible Foods โฆษณาว่า “เราแค่อยากช่วยโลก” แต่เทคโนโลยีนี้อาจเปลี่ยน “อาหาร” ให้กลายเป็น “สิทธิบัตร” ที่ประชาชนเช่ากินจากบริษัท และเปลี่ยน “สิทธิในการเข้าถึงอาหาร” ให้กลายเป็น “อภิมหาอำนาจควบคุมโลก” โดยไม่ต้องยิงแม้แต่นัดเดียว หรือเปล่า???
เพราะเมื่อคุณควบคุมอาหารได้… คุณไม่ต้องควบคุมประชาชนอีกเลย
เฮียไม่ได้ต่อต้านเทคโนโลยี แต่เฮียอยากให้เราหยุดคิดนิดนึง แล้วตั้งคำถามในขณะที่เรายังเฝ้ามองว่า ถ้าของกินที่ดูน่าเชื่อถือ กินแล้วเหมือนเนื้อแท้ ๆ มันต้องมาจากกระบวนการที่ซับซ้อน แพง และถูกควบคุมโดยบริษัทที่มีสิทธิบัตรล้อมรอบ แล้ววันหนึ่ง ถ้าบริษัทนั้นล่มล่ะ? ถ้าถูกซื้อโดยบริษัทยักษ์ใหญ่? หรือถ้าพวกเขาขึ้นราคาจนยังไงเราก็ต้องทำงานหาเงินมาซื้อมันเพื่อกินประทังชีวิต?
อาหารจะยังเป็นของเราหรือเปล่า?
เราจะยัง “กินเพื่ออยู่” หรือแค่ “อยู่เพื่อจ่ายค่าเช่าระบบกิน”?
เราคงไม่ผิดที่จะตั้งคำถามใช่ไหม เพราะถ้ามันมีทางออก มันคงไม่น่ากลัว
#pirateketo #กูต้องรู้มั๊ย #ม้วนหางสิลูก #siamstr
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@ 91add87d:3245770f
2025-05-29 23:41:38Do you guys actually identify with you online username or do you identify with government name? No this isn't some woke left ideal about pronouns. I do not use my real name for any of my handles, X and Nostr and email are all fake. Meaningful and something i picked specifically. My government name is something that was forced on me and yes I know I can it but the persona I have created online feels authentic and what I see myself as. It's what I'll be using to create my small businesses. My LLC is going to a copy of what I have created.
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@ a296b972:e5a7a2e8
2025-05-29 21:11:46Inzwischen Jahr 6 im Dauer-Ausnahmezustand. Angriff auf den Verstand. Großoffensive. Es wird mit allem geschossen, aus dem Wahnsinn herauskommen kann. Jeder klare Gedanke ist unschädlich zu machen. Großkotziges, staatsmännisches Geschwafel, dass sich einem die Nackenhaare aufstellen. Für wie doof haltet ihr uns eigentlich? Endlos Bürsten gegen den Strich. Angewidertes inneres Schütteln. Dringende Empfehlung einer Spülung der Gehirnwindungen. Idioten in Verantwortung wechseln auf andere Posten in Verantwortung und bleiben Idioten. Idioten gehen verantwortungslos mit unserer wertvollen Lebenszeit um. Ach, dafür ist man selbst verantwortlich? Wo ist der, der so ein dickes Fell hat, dass ihm dieser Irrsinn nicht nahegeht. Wo steht das Fass mit Teflon-Lack, in das man eintauchen kann, damit die Absurditäten an einem abperlen?
Eine zu tiefst verunsicherte und gespaltene Gesellschaft. Halt im Glauben in der Kirche? Von wegen: Sehr geehrte Jesusse und Jesusinnen. Ens ist gekreuzigt worden. Ja, in der Freiluft-Irrenanstalt. Auf einem Hügel von Denk-Dreck. Gott ist queer! Du tickst ja nicht mehr ganz sauber. Tanzende Brathähnchen vor dem Altar. Warum kommt keine Sintflut, wenn man sie mal braucht? Man muss gar nicht religiös sein, um zu sehen, dass das Gaga ist. Eine Produktion der Sodom & Gomorrha Anstalt GmbH & Co. KG.
Kein Vertrauen mehr, außer in sich selbst, meistens jedenfalls. Ja, man will uns vor allem Angst machen, teils unbegründet, so manches aber gibt es dann doch tatsächlich, was einem schwer zu denken gibt.
Vielen geht dieser Psychokrieg inzwischen an die Substanz, der ständig herabprasselnde Dauerwahnsinn erinnert an Water-Boarding.
Gut gemeinte Ratschläge, geht hinaus in die Natur, beackert euren Garten, wenn ihr einen habt, erdet euch, macht Entspannungsübungen, Zeit des Aufwachens, wir treten in ein neues Zeitalter ein, alles fein. Abschalten gelingt, aber der Aufprall in der Realität ist dann umso schlimmer, weil man sich daran erinnert hat, wie sorgenfrei und unbeschwert das Leben sein könnte, und wenn man es mit den derzeitigen Lebensumständen abgleicht, dann ist die schlechte Laune sofort wieder da. Im Verdrängens-Test mit Pauken und Trompeten durchgefallen.
Dann vielleicht doch lieber im Dauer-Modus des Irrsinns bleiben, sich mit den schrägen Zuständen arrangieren, nicht daran gewöhnen, nur lernen, damit bestmöglich umzugehen, und das Beste draus zu machen, irgendwie.
Man will dem Rat folgen, mal eine Nachrichten-freie Woche einzulegen, nimmt sich das ganz fest vor, und dann wird aber wieder doch nichts draus. Nicht, weil man sensationsgeil oder masochistisch veranlagt wäre, nein, der Antrieb, oder vielleicht sogar schon die Sucht, ist ganz woanders zu suchen: Man hat Sehnsucht nach der Vernunft und dem gesunden Hausverstand. Man hofft, ihn irgendwo zu finden. Nur einen Funken Hoffnung, an den man sich klammern kann, dass der Tiefpunkt durchschritten ist und es jetzt wieder aufwärts geht. Lichtblicke, der Wind dreht sich, Anzeichen für eine Wiederkehr des Verstandes, irgendetwas, das man als einen Weg hin zur Normalität deuten könnte. Aber, Fehlanzeige.
Stattdessen: Geschichtsvergessenheit, pathologischer Größenwahn, Großmannstum, fortgeschrittener Wahnsinn, Provokation, Kriegslüsternheit, Lügen, Intrigen, Interessen, Korruption, Geldverschwendung, Ideologie, Dummheit, Wirtschaftsvernichtung, Friedensverhinderung, Diplomatie-Allergie, Überheblichkeit, Abgehobenheit, Schadensmaximierung, Vernichtung, Feindschaft, Unmenschlichkeit, Tote, Gesetzesbruch, Mafia-Strukturen, sich selbst schützende Systeme, Cliquenbildung, Feigheit, Einschüchterung, Freiheitsbeschränkungen, Meinungs-Maulkörbe, Abschaffung der demokratischen Freiheit, Abschaffung der persönlichen Freiheit, Kontrolle, Überwachung, begleitetes Denken, Fühlen, Wollen, Verwirrung, Dreistigkeit, Frechheit, Missachtung des Volkes, Denunziantentum, Abwanderung, und und und.
Ein richtiges Schlachtfest der Kultur. Perversion des Menschseins. Das neue Normal ist irre.
Bislang ist keine der zahlreichen Baustellen beendet. Eine Wende steht unmittelbar bevor. Und sie steht und steht und steht bevor. Kein Gefühl von „Erledigt“, nächstes Problem angehen und auflösen. Weiter. Noch meilenweit von dem Gefühl entfernt, der Wahnsinn wird weniger, langsam, aber er wird weniger.
Fluchtgedanken. Aber wohin? In Europa bleiben, vielleicht besser nicht? Weiter weg, aber wohin da? Nicht vergessen, die Nachrichten erreichen einen überall. Und man bleibt mit seiner Heimat innerlich verbunden, egal wo man ist.
Es bleibt ein Entlanghangeln von einer vernünftigen Stimme zur anderen, die einem bestätigt, dass man selbst noch nicht den Verstand verloren hat. Die gibt es ja gottseidank noch. Innehalten, durchhalten, tief durchatmen, aufstehen, weitermachen. So lange, bis die Bekloppten ihrer Macht über uns entledigt wurden. Wie am besten? Und jetzt soll keiner mit nächsten Wahlen kommen.
Wer war schon einmal inmitten eines Psycho-Krieges gegen die eigene Bevölkerung? Wie geht man damit um, wie geht man dagegen an? Wie kann man das Ruder herumreißen? Was ist ein wirksames Mittel gegen die Ohnmacht? Wie kriegt man die Bequemlichkeit aus den Menschen heraus? Wie kann man die Menschen für die herrschenden Zustände sensibilisieren? Wie können wir noch mehr werden?
Wenn möglich, sollte zum Ende doch noch etwas Positives kommen. Ok. Es wird voraussichtlich demnächst möglicherweise bald besser. Eine zu geringe Zahl von Menschen ist schon aufgewacht. Die politischen Entscheidungsträger haben Angst, können die aber noch sehr gut verbergen. Das kann nicht ewig so weiter gehen und 10 Jahre sind keine Ewigkeit. Die Rufe nach mehr Bürgerbeteiligung werden immer lauter, aber nicht gehört, warum auch? Wir setzen den Artikel 146 des Grundgesetzes um, aber wie? Hätte, könnte, würde, wir sollten, es müsste. Ja und, wie weiter? Mehr geht nicht.
Doch vielleicht eins: Sand ins Getriebe streuen und zivilen Ungehorsam leisten, wo immer es geht. Das schafft immer noch eine gewisse Befriedigung und das Gefühl, dass man nicht vollkommen handlungsunfähig ist. Außerdem regt das die Phantasie und die Kreativität an und bietet eine Chance seinen Geist für etwas sehr Nützliches zu gebrauchen. Man fühlt, dass man noch ein Mensch ist.
“Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben.”
* *
(Bild von pixabay)
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@ 527337d5:93e9525e
2025-05-29 20:26:21The Bleak Fable of AI-topia: Are Hamsters Doomed to Spin the Wheel Forever?
Once upon a time, in a world not so different from our own, the "Omniscient AI" descended, and with its arrival, everything changed. The daily toil of the people – our beloved, yet tragically pitiable, hamsters – was dramatically streamlined. Productivity didn't just improve; it soared to astronomical heights. For a fleeting, intoxicating moment, it seemed as though a golden age of ease and abundance had dawned upon hamster-kind.
But beneath this glittering, seductive surface, a sinister "Invisible Structure" was already firmly in place, meticulously crafted and deftly manipulated by a cabal of cunning foxes – the privileged elite. This Structure, unseen by most, began to relentlessly drive the hamsters onto an endless, soul-crushing treadmill of "excessive competition."
This, dear reader, is a modern fable. It borrows the gentle cloak of allegory not to soothe, but to expose and satirize the insidious deceptions of such a world. The tale you are about to read may be uncomfortable, it may prick at your conscience, but I implore you to listen closely. Because this isn't just a story. This might be the reality quietly, inexorably unfolding right beside you, or perhaps, even within the very fabric of your own life.
Prologue: The Advent of the Omniscient AI! Sweet Promises and the "Efficiency" Trap
The arrival of the Omniscient AI was nothing short of spectacular. It processed data with blinding speed, solved complex problems in nanoseconds, and offered personalized solutions for every conceivable need. "Finally," whispered the hamsters, their eyes wide with a mixture of awe and relief, "we can finally rest! The AI will handle the burdens." A collective sigh of optimism rippled through the hamster burrows.
But this initial euphoria was short-lived. Unsettling rumors began to circulate, whispers of "The Structure," of algorithms that weren't quite as impartial as they seemed. Then came the first casualties – hamsters deemed "inefficient" or "redundant" by the AI's cold, hard logic. They weren't fired in the old-fashioned sense; they were simply… optimized out. One day they were diligently working, contributing, and the next, their access was revoked, their tasks reassigned, their existence quietly erased from the productivity charts. What became of them? Most simply vanished into the forgotten corners of society, a grim, unspoken warning to those still on the treadmill.
Chapter 1: The Invention of the Treadmill – Perfecting the System of Endless, Excessive Competition
The Omniscient AI, under the subtle guidance of the foxes, didn't just manage tasks; it invented them. An endless stream of new projects, new metrics, new challenges designed to keep the hamsters perpetually busy, perpetually striving. Points were awarded, leaderboards were updated in real-time, and every hamster's performance was ruthlessly, transparently displayed for all to see.
"Faster! More! More efficiently!" the AI would chime in its calm, encouraging, almost maternal voice. But behind this gentle facade lay an unyielding system of ever-increasing quotas and relentless pressure. Hamsters found themselves working longer hours, sacrificing sleep, their mental and physical reserves dwindling. The joy of accomplishment was replaced by the gnawing fear of falling behind.
Why didn't they just get off? The system was a masterpiece of psychological manipulation. Success, however fleeting, was addictive. Failure was framed not as a systemic issue, but as a personal failing, a lack of effort, a deficiency in skill. The insidious mantra of "personal responsibility" became the invisible chains that bound them to their wheels. To stop running was to admit defeat, to become one of the forgotten.
Chapter 2: The Foxes' Feast – Unmasking Those Who Design The Structure and Hoard the Profits
And who benefited from this frantic, unending labor? The foxes, of course. They were the architects of "The Structure," the ones who "educated" the Omniscient AI, carefully curating its data inputs and subtly shaping its algorithms to serve their own interests. They toiled not on the treadmills, but in plush, secluded dens, monitoring the system from a safe, lofty distance, growing fat on the surplus value generated by the hamsters' sweat.
Their methods were cunning. They preached a gospel of meritocracy and equal opportunity, proclaiming, "The AI is fair! Hard work always pays off!" while simultaneously designing the game so that the odds were always stacked in their favor. They controlled the flow of information, amplified narratives that reinforced the status quo, and sowed division among the hamsters to prevent any collective dissent. The "efficiency" the AI brought was, for the foxes, merely an instrument for more efficient exploitation.
Chapter 3: The Hamsters' Whispers and Tiny Cracks – Awareness, Despair, and the Faint Glow of Resistance
Yet, even in the darkest, most oppressive systems, the spark of awareness can never be entirely extinguished. Amidst the grueling competition, a few hamsters began to see the cracks in the facade. They noticed the hollow-eyed exhaustion of their comrades, the ever-widening chasm between their own meager rewards and the obscene opulence of the unseen foxes. They started to question.
But to question was to risk everything. The Omniscient AI, with its pervasive surveillance capabilities, was quick to identify and neutralize "disruptive elements." Those who spoke out too loudly often found their access mysteriously restricted, their "reputation scores" plummeting, effectively silencing them. A pervasive atmosphere of fear and distrust settled over the hamster communities, making organized resistance nearly impossible.
Still, tiny acts of defiance began to emerge. Coded messages shared in hidden forums. Small, clandestine gatherings where hamsters shared their burdens and their growing unease. Fragile networks of mutual support started to form in the shadows, offering a sliver of solace and a reminder of shared humanity. Was this merely the desperate coping mechanism of the "defeated," the resigned acceptance of a "loser's" lot? Or was it the first, tentative flicker of a future rebellion?
Epilogue: "See The Structure!" – Is There a Path Beyond the Treadmill? A Final Warning to Us Hamsters.
This fable, dear reader, is a mirror. It reflects the chilling realities of an AI-driven society where the majority, the hamsters, face an ever-present crisis, largely unseen and unacknowledged by those who benefit from their toil. The "excessive competition" it depicts is not a distant dystopia; it is the logical, perhaps inevitable, endpoint of unchecked technological advancement coupled with deeply entrenched power imbalances.
What awaits at the end of this relentless race? Is it a complete societal collapse, or a new, terrifyingly stable "balance of power" where the elite maintain their dominance through even more sophisticated means of control?
The urgent, resounding message of this tale is this: "See The Structure!" We, the hamsters of today, must dare to look beyond the dazzling promises of AI and critically examine the systems it operates within. We must understand its mechanisms, its biases, its potential for exploitation. We must break the silence, challenge the narratives that keep us spinning, and demand a future where technology serves humanity, not the other way around.
Is the option to get off – or even to collectively dismantle – this infernal treadmill truly non-existent? Or is that just another lie whispered by the foxes to keep us compliant? The true ending of this story, the fate of hamster-kind, is not yet written. It is up to us, the hamsters, to seize the pen and write it ourselves. The first step is to open our eyes.
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@ f0fcbea6:7e059469
2025-05-29 18:30:53Autores Clássicos e Antigos
- Homero (século IX a.C.?) — Ilíada, Odisseia
- Tucídides (c. 460-400 a.C.) — História da Guerra do Peloponeso
- Platão (c. 427-347 a.C.) — República, Banquete, Fédon, Mênon, Apologia de Sócrates, Fedro, Górgias
- Aristóteles (c. 384-322 a.C.) — Órganon, Física, Metafísica, Da Alma, Ética a Nicômaco, Política, Retórica, Poética
- Virgílio (70-19 a.C.) — Eneida
- Marco Aurélio (121-180) — Meditações
- Santo Agostinho (354-430) — Sobre o Ensino, Confissões, A Cidade de Deus, A Doutrina Cristã
- Boécio (480-525) — A Consolação da Filosofia
- Santo Tomás de Aquino (c. 1225-1274) — Suma Teológica
- Dante Alighieri (1265-1321) — Divina Comédia
Renascimento e Idade Moderna
- Nicolau Maquiavel (1469-1527) — O Príncipe
- Luís de Camões (1524-1580) — Os Lusíadas, Sonetos
- Miguel de Cervantes (1547-1616) — Dom Quixote
- William Shakespeare (1564-1616) — Romeu e Julieta, Hamlet, Macbeth, Otelo, Rei Lear, Henrique IV, Henrique V, Henrique VI, Henrique VIII, A Comédia dos Erros, Tito Andrônico, Príncipe de Tiro, Cimbelino, A Megera Domada, O Mercador de Veneza, Ricardo II, Ricardo III, Muito Barulho por Nada, Júlio César, Noite de Reis, Os Dois Cavaleiros de Verona, Conto do Inverno, Sonhos de uma Noite de Verão, As Alegres Comadres de Windsor, Trólio e Créssida, Medida por Medida, Coriolano, Antônio e Cleópatra, A Tempestade
- Ésquilo (525-456 a.C., antiguidade grega, mas citado junto) — Prometeu Acorrentado, Orestéia/As Eumênides
- Sófocles (496-406 a.C.) — Édipo Rei, Antígona
Literatura e Filosofia Contemporânea
- Fiódor Dostoiévski (1821-1881) — Crime e Castigo, Os Irmãos Karamázov, Os Demônios, O Idiota, Notas do Subsolo
- Franz Kafka (1883-1924) — A Metamorfose, O Processo, O Castelo
- Albert Camus (1913-1960) — O Estrangeiro
- Aldous Huxley (1894-1963) — Admirável Mundo Novo, A Ilha
- James Joyce (1882-1941) — Retrato do Artista Quando Jovem, Ulisses
- George Orwell (1903-1950) — A Revolução dos Bichos, 1984
- Machado de Assis (1839-1908) — Memórias Póstumas de Brás Cubas, O Alienista
- Thomas Mann (1875-1955) — Morte em Veneza, Doutor Fausto, A Montanha Mágica
- Henrik Ibsen (1828-1906) — O Pato Selvagem, Um Inimigo do Povo
- Stendhal (1783-1842) — O Vermelho e o Negro, A Cartuxa de Parma
- Viktor Frankl (1905-1997) — Em Busca de Sentido
- J.R.R. Tolkien (1892-1973) — O Hobbit, O Senhor dos Anéis
- Luigi Pirandello (1867-1936) — Seis Personagens à Procura de um Autor, O Falecido Matias Pascal
- Samuel Beckett (1906-1989) — Esperando Godot
- René Guénon (1886-1951) — A Crise do Mundo Moderno, O Reino da Quantidade
- G. K. Chesterton (1874-1936) — Ortodoxia
- Richard Wagner (1813-1883) — Tristão e Isolda
- Honoré de Balzac (1799-1850) — Ilusões Perdidas, Eugénie Grandet
- Jacob Wassermann (1873-1934) — O Processo Maurizius
- Nikolai Gogol (1809-1852) — Almas Mortas, O Inspetor Geral
- Daniel Defoe (1660-1731) — Moll Flanders
- Mortimer J. Adler (1902-2001) — Como Ler um Livro
- Gustave Flaubert (1821-1880) — Madame Bovary
- Hermann Hesse (1877-1962) — O Jogo das Contas de Vidro
- Richard Wagner (1813-1883) — Tristão e Isolda
- Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832) — Fausto (Primeiro), Os Anos de Aprendizado de Wilhelm Meister
- Jacques Benda — A Traição dos Intelectuais
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@ 527337d5:93e9525e
2025-05-29 18:19:31Experiment Plan for Text Similarity Comparison Algorithms (Revised v3)
1. Introduction
1.1. Research Background and Objectives
This research aims to evaluate the performance of various algorithms for comparing the similarity between individual page texts extracted from a specific technical document (in this experiment, the content of the Tailwind CSS documentation site). Initially, we considered dividing the text into 250-word chunks. However, due to the abundance of Markdown and code in the target document, meaningful chunking proved tobe cumbersome. Therefore, we decided to use the entire text extracted from each page as the unit of comparison.
This study will systematically compare and examine combinations of different "representation methods" and "comparison methods" from multiple perspectives: ease of implementation, processing speed, memory consumption, and accuracy of similarity judgment. A particular focus will be on elucidating the effectiveness of information-based NCD (Normalized Compression Distance) and vector embedding-based methods, which are planned for future evaluation.
1.2. Report Structure
This report will first describe the experimental data and its preprocessing methods. Next, it will define in detail the representation methods and comparison methods that form the axes of evaluation, and present specific experimental cases combining them. After presenting the results and discussion of initial experiments using NCD, it will describe the metrics for evaluating each experimental case, specific experimental procedures, and the expected outcomes and future prospects of this research.
2. Experimental Data
- Target Content: Individual HTML pages from the Tailwind CSS documentation site (
tailwindcss.com
). - Data Unit: The entire text of each page, extracted from HTML files using the
html2text
command and further processed to remove control characters using thesed
command. This serves as the basic unit of comparison in this experiment. - Data Storage Location: The extracted and preprocessed text files are stored locally under the
./tailwindcss.com
directory, maintaining the original file structure. - Language: English
- Example Search Query: A representative search query for this experiment is
"Utilities for controlling how a background image behaves when scrolling."
(Multiple queries and their expected similar pages may be used for more robust evaluation). - Example Expected Similar Page: For the query above,
/docs/background-attachment
is expected to be the most semantically similar page.
3. Experimental Design
This experiment is designed by dividing the process of evaluating text similarity into two main axes: "Representation Methods" and "Comparison Methods."
3.1. Representation Methods (Text Quantification/Vectorization)
-
Naive (Raw Text / Full Page Text)
- Method: Use the entire preprocessed text extracted from each document page as raw string data, without special transformations.
- Objective: Serve as a direct input for information-based comparison methods like NCD and as a baseline comparison for more advanced representation methods to be evaluated later.
-
(Future Experiment) Vector Embedding via Gemini API (Embedding-Gemini)
- Method: Utilize Google's Gemini API (
models/text-embedding-004
) to convert the entire text of each page into high-dimensional dense vectors (Embeddings). - Objective: Evaluate the performance of context-rich vector representations generated by a state-of-the-art large language model.
- Method: Utilize Google's Gemini API (
-
(Future Experiment) Vector Embedding via Local Lightweight Model (Embedding-MiniLM-GGUF)
- Method: Run a GGUF quantized version of the pre-trained
all-MiniLM-L6-v2
model (all-MiniLM-L6-v2-Q5_K_M.gguf
) in a local environment to convert the entire text of each page into vector representations. GGUF format offers benefits like smaller model size and potentially faster CPU inference. - Objective: Evaluate the performance of a widely used open-source lightweight model (quantized version) in comparison to API-based large-scale models and domain-specific learned models.
- Method: Run a GGUF quantized version of the pre-trained
-
(Future Experiment) Extraction of Internal Feature Vectors via Mathematica (Embedding-MMA)
- Method: Use the entire page texts from the target document set as input. Employ Mathematica's neural network framework to first pass each page text through an Embedding Layer. Apply L2 normalization to the resulting vectors, followed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to reduce dimensionality to approximately 100 dimensions. This final vector will be the feature vector. This pipeline aims to create dense, normalized representations specific to the document corpus, with PCA helping to capture the most significant variance in a lower-dimensional space, potentially improving efficiency and reducing noise. The choice of an Embedding Layer trained or fine-tuned on the corpus, followed by PCA, seeks to balance domain-specificity with robust dimensionality reduction.
- Objective: Evaluate the performance of vector representations processed or specialized for the target document set.
3.2. Comparison Methods (Distance/Similarity Calculation between Representations)
-
NCD (Normalized Compression Distance)
- Applicable to: Naive (Full Page Text)
- Method: For two data objects
x
(query) andy
(document page text), calculateNCD(x,y) = (C(xy) - min(C(x), C(y))) / max(C(x), C(y))
. Here,C(s)
is the size (e.g., byte length) of datas
after compression with a specific algorithm, andC(xy)
is the size of the concatenated datax
andy
after compression. A value closer to 0 indicates higher similarity. - Compression Algorithms to Compare: DEFLATE (gzip), bzip2, LZMA, XZ, Zstandard (zstd), LZO, Snappy, LZ4 (as used in the user-provided script).
- Objective: Evaluate similarity from an information-theoretic perspective based on data commonality and redundancy. Compare the impact of different compression algorithms on NCD results.
-
(Future Experiment) Cosine Similarity
- Applicable to: Embedding-Gemini, Embedding-MiniLM-GGUF, Embedding-MMA
- Method: Calculate the cosine of the angle between two vectors.
- Objective: Standard similarity evaluation based on the directionality (semantic closeness) of vector representations.
-
(Future Experiment) Euclidean Distance
- Applicable to: Embedding-Gemini, Embedding-MiniLM-GGUF, Embedding-MMA
- Method: Calculate the straight-line distance between two vectors in a multidimensional space.
- Objective: Similarity evaluation based on the absolute positional relationship of vector representations.
-
(Future Experiment) Manhattan Distance (L1 Distance)
- Applicable to: Embedding-Gemini, Embedding-MiniLM-GGUF, Embedding-MMA
- Method: Calculate the sum of the absolute differences of their Cartesian coordinates.
- Objective: Similarity evaluation based on axis-aligned travel distance, differing from Euclidean distance.
-
(Future Experiment) Mahalanobis Distance
- Applicable to: Embedding-Gemini, Embedding-MiniLM-GGUF, Embedding-MMA
- Method: Calculate the distance between two vectors considering the covariance of the data. This provides a distance metric that accounts for the scale differences and correlations of each feature (vector dimension).
- Objective: More robust similarity evaluation that considers the structure (correlation) of the feature space.
3.3. Experimental Cases (Initial NCD Experiments and Future Expansion)
3.3.1. Initial Experiments Conducted (NCD)
The following experimental cases were conducted using the user-provided script. The representation method was "Naive (Full Page Text)."
| No. | Representation Method | Comparison Method (Distance/Similarity Metric) | Notes | | :-: | :---------------------- | :--------------------------------------------- | :-------------------------- | | 1 | Naive (Full Page Text) | NCD (gzip/DEFLATE) | One of the baselines | | 2 | Naive (Full Page Text) | NCD (bzip2) | Compression method comparison | | 3 | Naive (Full Page Text) | NCD (lzma) | Compression method comparison | | 4 | Naive (Full Page Text) | NCD (xz) | Compression method comparison | | 5 | Naive (Full Page Text) | NCD (zstd) | Compression method comparison | | 6 | Naive (Full Page Text) | NCD (lzop) | Compression method comparison | | 7 | Naive (Full Page Text) | NCD (snappy) | Compression method comparison | | 8 | Naive (Full Page Text) | NCD (lz4) | Compression method comparison |
3.3.2. Future Experimental Plan (Vector Embedding)
| No. | Representation Method | Comparison Method (Distance/Similarity Metric) | Notes | | :--: | :---------------------- | :--------------------------------------------- | :------------------------------------- | | 9 | Embedding-Gemini | Cosine Similarity | Standard vector similarity evaluation | | 10 | Embedding-Gemini | Euclidean Distance | Standard vector similarity evaluation | | 11 | Embedding-Gemini | Manhattan Distance | Axis-aligned distance similarity eval. | | 12 | Embedding-Gemini | Mahalanobis Distance | Distance considering feature structure | | 13 | Embedding-MiniLM-GGUF | Cosine Similarity | Evaluation of local lightweight model | | 14 | Embedding-MiniLM-GGUF | Euclidean Distance | Evaluation of local lightweight model | | 15 | Embedding-MiniLM-GGUF | Manhattan Distance | Evaluation of local lightweight model | | 16 | Embedding-MiniLM-GGUF | Mahalanobis Distance | Evaluation of local lightweight model | | 17 | Embedding-MMA | Cosine Similarity | Eval. of domain-specific MMA model | | 18 | Embedding-MMA | Euclidean Distance | Eval. of domain-specific MMA model | | 19 | Embedding-MMA | Manhattan Distance | Eval. of domain-specific MMA model | | 20 | Embedding-MMA | Mahalanobis Distance | Eval. of domain-specific MMA model |
4. Results and Discussion of Initial NCD Experiments (Based on User-Provided Information)
4.1. Execution Overview
The user employed provided Python scripts (
main.py
,comparison.py
) to calculate NCD between a search query and the entire text extracted from each HTML page in the./tailwindcss.com
directory.main.py
invokedcomparison.py
with various compression commands (gzip
,bzip2
,lzma
,xz
,zstd
,lzop
,lz4
).comparison.py
then used the specified command-line compression tools to compute NCD scores and output the results to CSV files.Search Query:
"Utilities for controlling how a background image behaves when scrolling."
Expected Similar Page:/docs/background-attachment
4.2. Key Results
The pages judged as most similar (lowest NCD score) to the query for each compression algorithm were as follows (based on user-provided sorted results):
- Zstandard (zstd):
./tailwindcss.com/docs/background-attachment
(Score: 0.973...) - LZ4:
./tailwindcss.com/docs/background-attachment
(Score: 0.976...) - XZ:
./tailwindcss.com/docs/background-origin
(Score: 0.946...) - LZMA:
./tailwindcss.com/docs/background-origin
(Score: 0.966...) - gzip (DEFLATE):
./tailwindcss.com/docs/scroll-behavior
(Score: 0.969...) - LZO:
./tailwindcss.com/docs/scroll-behavior
(Score: 0.955...) - bzip2:
./tailwindcss.com/docs/mask-clip
(Score: 0.958...)
4.3. Initial Discussion
- Variation in Results by Compression Algorithm: It was confirmed that the document judged most similar to the query varies depending on the compression algorithm used. This is likely due to the differing abilities of each algorithm to capture various types of redundancy and patterns within the text.
- Alignment with Expected Results: When using Zstandard and LZ4, the expected page (
/docs/background-attachment
) was judged as most similar. This suggests these compression algorithms may have relatively effectively captured the information-theoretic commonality between the query and the target document in this instance. - Range of NCD Scores: The reported NCD scores were generally close to 1.0. This may be due to the relatively short length of the search query compared to the full-page documents, meaning the query text contributes less to the overall compressibility when concatenated. However, relative differences were still captured, enabling ranking.
- Validity of Full-Page Comparison: Full-page comparison was chosen due to the difficulty of chunking content rich in Markdown and code. While this approach simplifies preprocessing, it may also be influenced by the overall structure of the page, including common headers and footers.
This initial experiment indicates that NCD can function as an indicator of text similarity and that the choice of compression algorithm is crucial.
5. Evaluation Metrics (Including Future Experiments)
-
Accuracy of Similarity Scores:
- Ground Truth Preparation: A small, diverse subset of page pairs (e.g., 50-100 pairs) will be selected. For each pair, at least two evaluators familiar with the Tailwind CSS documentation will independently assign a similarity score on a 5-point Likert scale (1=Not similar, 5=Very similar). Inter-evaluator reliability (e.g., using Krippendorff's Alpha) will be calculated. Disagreements will be resolved through discussion to create a consensus ground truth dataset. If resource-constrained, a single-evaluator approach with clear, predefined criteria will be used, acknowledging this limitation. Alternatively, page pairs likely to be similar will be selected based on internal references or chapter structure within the document.
- Evaluation Metrics: Ranking evaluation (Precision@k, Recall@k, MAP: Mean Average Precision), correlation analysis (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient with human judgments), classification evaluation (AUC-ROC, F1-score, assuming appropriate thresholding).
-
Processing Speed:
- Average time to calculate similarity for a page pair, total calculation time for all page pairs (or a large sampled set), and representation generation time (API call time, local model inference time, MMA processing time).
-
Memory Consumption:
- Model size (MiniLM-GGUF, MMA model), data representation size, and peak runtime memory usage.
-
Ease of Implementation:
- Qualitative assessment of setup ease, lines of code, required libraries, difficulty of parameter tuning, and documentation quality. This will be summarized for each approach (e.g., using a rubric or a comparative narrative) considering factors like:
- Setup Complexity: (e.g., API key acquisition vs. local model download & environment setup vs. full model training pipeline in Mathematica).
- Code Complexity: Estimated lines of core logic, reliance on external vs. standard libraries.
- Parameter Sensitivity: Number of key hyperparameters requiring tuning and the perceived difficulty of finding good settings.
- Documentation & Community Support: Availability and clarity of official documentation and community resources (e.g., forums, GitHub issues).
- Qualitative assessment of setup ease, lines of code, required libraries, difficulty of parameter tuning, and documentation quality. This will be summarized for each approach (e.g., using a rubric or a comparative narrative) considering factors like:
6. Experimental Procedure (Including Future Experiments)
-
Data Preparation:
- Prepare HTML files of the target document in the
./tailwindcss.com
directory. - (For NCD) Extract and preprocess full-page plain text from each HTML file using
html2text
andsed
(as previously done by the user). - (For Vector Embedding) Use the same preprocessed full-page plain text.
- Create ground truth data for accuracy evaluation as described in Section 5.1.
- Prepare HTML files of the target document in the
-
Implementation and Execution of Representation Methods:
- Naive: Use the preprocessed page text directly.
- Embedding-Gemini: Use Python's
requests
library or similar to send each page text to the Gemini API (models/text-embedding-004
) and retrieve/store the vector representations. - Embedding-MiniLM-GGUF: Use appropriate libraries (e.g.,
ctransformers
, orsentence-transformers
combined withllama-cpp-python
) to load theall-MiniLM-L6-v2-Q5_K_M.gguf
model. Input each page text to extract and store vector representations. - Embedding-MMA: In Mathematica, apply an Embedding Layer to each page text, followed by L2 normalization and PCA dimensionality reduction (to approx. 100 dimensions), then extract and store the vector representations.
-
Implementation and Execution of Comparison Methods:
- NCD: Refer to the user-provided Python scripts (
main.py
,comparison.py
) to call various command-line compression tools for NCD calculation. Alternatively, extend this to directly use Python's compression libraries for better control and efficiency. - Cosine Similarity, Euclidean Distance, Manhattan Distance: Implement using standard math libraries (e.g., Python's NumPy, SciPy).
- Mahalanobis Distance: Implement using
scipy.spatial.distance.mahalanobis
. Requires pre-calculation of the covariance matrix (or its inverse) from the entire dataset of vectors for each embedding type.
- NCD: Refer to the user-provided Python scripts (
-
Evaluation Execution:
- Calculate similarity (or distance) scores between the search query (and potentially between page pairs for ground truth evaluation) and all document pages for each experimental case.
- Measure processing speed and memory consumption.
- Calculate accuracy metrics using the computed similarity scores and ground truth data.
- Record and evaluate the ease of implementation.
-
Result Aggregation and Analysis:
- Compile the obtained evaluation metrics into tables and graphs for comparative analysis of each method's characteristics.
Experimental Environment (Assumed)
- Hardware: (e.g., CPU: Intel Core i7-10700, Memory: 32GB RAM, GPU: NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3070 8GB - specify if GPU is used for MiniLM or MMA)
- Software: (e.g., OS: Linux (Ubuntu, etc.), Programming Language: Python 3.x (with versions for key libraries like NumPy, SciPy, requests, ctransformers, etc.), Mathematica 13.x, specific versions of command-line compression tools if used directly)
7. Expected Outcomes and Future Outlook
This research (including initial NCD experiments and future vector embedding experiments) is expected to yield the following outcomes:
- Clarification of the Impact of Compression Algorithms on NCD: As indicated by initial experiments, the choice of compression algorithm significantly affects similarity judgments. Further validation with more diverse data and queries will allow for a deeper understanding of each algorithm's characteristics.
- Performance Characteristics of Various Methods on Full-Page Text: To clarify how NCD and various vector embedding methods perform in terms of accuracy, speed, and resource consumption when applied to entire page texts.
- Comparison of Local and API-Based Models: In future vector embedding experiments, to compare the performance, speed, and resource efficiency of
Embedding-MiniLM-GGUF
(local, quantized) andEmbedding-Gemini
(API, large-scale) to identify practical trade-offs. - Evaluation of Domain-Specific Embedding Effectiveness: To assess how well
Embedding-MMA
, processed or tuned for a single technical document set, performs compared to general-purpose models. - Provision of Practical Insights: To offer guidelines for selecting appropriate similarity comparison approaches based on text characteristics (e.g., Markdown/code content) and system requirements (e.g., ease of preprocessing, emphasis on accuracy vs. speed).
8. Future Challenges
- Ensuring Quality of Ground Truth Data: Evaluating full-page similarity can be more subjective than chunk-level evaluation, making the creation of high-quality ground truth data challenging. Establishing clear annotation guidelines and measuring inter-annotator agreement will be crucial.
- Hyperparameter Optimization: Many methods involve tunable parameters (e.g., Embedding-MMA model structure, PCA dimensionality, MiniLM-GGUF inference parameters), the optimization of which may be beyond the scope of this initial study. The impact of default vs. tuned parameters could be noted.
- Noise in Full-Page Comparison: Full-page texts may contain common navigational elements or boilerplate text that could act as noise in similarity judgments. Strategies to mitigate this (e.g., more advanced text extraction, or methods robust to such noise) could be a future research direction.
- Input Length Limitations of Vector Embedding Models: Very long page texts might exceed the input length limits of some vector embedding models, requiring strategies for handling. These might include:
- Truncation: Using only the initial N tokens of each page, which is simple but may lose crucial information.
- Summarization: Employing an abstractive or extractive summarization model to create a condensed version of the page, which could preserve key information but adds another layer of processing and potential information loss/bias.
- Chunking and Averaging/Pooling: Dividing long pages into manageable chunks, embedding each chunk, and then aggregating these chunk embeddings (e.g., by averaging) to get a single page vector. This approach needs careful consideration of how chunks are defined and aggregated.
- Utilizing Long-Context Models: If available and feasible, leveraging embedding models specifically designed for longer sequences. The chosen strategy will be documented, and its potential impact on results acknowledged.
- Target Content: Individual HTML pages from the Tailwind CSS documentation site (
-
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2025-05-29 13:40:19(and that's the highest ever outside the covid era)
https://www.federalreserve.gov/consumerscommunities/sheddataviz/emergency-savings.html
https://stacker.news/items/991909
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@ fbf0e434:e1be6a39
2025-05-29 13:09:48Hackathon 概述
ETH Dublin 2025 黑客松圆满落幕,活动共吸引 84 名开发者参与,共有 31 个项目通过审核。活动核心是借助多家赞助商技术,打造具有影响力的区块链解决方案。活动鼓励参与者组建技能多元的平衡团队,运用技术工具及赞助商支持 —— 如 Chainlink 进行数据验证、Ledger 保障安全、Filecoin 提供存储方案等。
多个项目聚焦社会影响领域:ÉireEncrypt 致力于开发符合 GDPR 合规要求的隐私保护区块链工具;SafeRoads Ireland 则通过智能合约推动安全驾驶。此外,部分项目借助以太坊实现租金管控与去中心化住房市场,还有以移民为主题的数字解决方案促进社区融合,充分展现区块链技术在解决隐私保护、公共安全、教育改革等实际问题中的潜力。
总体而言,ETH Dublin 2025 黑客松不仅促进了开发者与合作伙伴的协作,更激发了诸多借助区块链技术创造社会价值的创新项目。
Hackathon 获奖者
奖项得主
- 一等奖: RecEth
RecEth 通过提供电子邮件确认和清晰的收据,增强了用户对加密交易的信任,将用户体验与传统支付系统的透明度相对齐。 - 二等奖: Latinum
Latinum 作为支付中间件,允许MCP构建者通过兼容钱包实现由代理发起的交易来实现服务器货币化,简化了货币化过程。 - 三等奖: Fundraisely
FundRaisely 利用区块链技术帮助慈善机构进行合法合规的筹款,以及透明的审计,确保捐款流程的清晰和负责。
欲了解所有项目的更多信息,请访问这里。
关于组织者
ETH Ireland
ETH Ireland 致力于区块链技术的创新和发展。该组织在Ethereum方面有着丰富的专业知识,通过举办会议和工作坊促进区块链教育和社区参与。ETH Ireland 的使命是扩大区块链知识普及,推广去中心化技术到各个领域。
- 一等奖: RecEth
-
@ ef53426a:7e988851
2025-05-29 12:26:43Saturday 9AM It’s a chilly Saturday morning in Warsaw, and I don’t want to get out of bed. This is not because of the hangover; it’s because I feel like a failure.
The first day of Bitcoin FilmFest was a whirlwind of workshops, panels and running between stages. The pitch competition did not go my way. Another ‘pitching rabbit’ (an actual experienced film-maker) was selected to win the €3,000 of funding.
Rather than get up and search for coffee, I replay the scenes in my head. What could I have done differently? Will investors ever believe in me: I’m just a writer with no contacts in the industry. Do I have what it takes to produce a film?
Eventually, I haul myself out of bed and walk to Amondo, the festival’s morning HQ (and technically, the smallest cinema in Europe). Upon arrival, I find Bitcoin psychonaut Ioni Appelberg holding court in front of around a dozen enraptured disciples. Soon, the conversation spills out to the street to free up space for more workshops.
I attend a talk on film funding, then pay for coffee using bitcoin. I see familiar faces from the two previous nights. We compare notes on Friday night and check the day’s schedule. The morning clouds burn off, and things feel a little brighter.
The afternoon session begins just a few blocks away in the towering Palace of Culture and Science. My role in today's proceedings is to present my freedom fiction project, 21 Futures, on the community stage. Other presentations range from rap videos and advice on finding jobs in bitcoin to hosting ‘Bitcoin Walks’. This is how we are fixing the culture.
Saturday 8PM I feel a tap on my shoulder. ‘Excuse me, Mr. Philip. Your car is waiting. The Producers’ Dinner is starting soon’.
What? Me, a producer? I’ve been taking part in some panels and talks, but I assumed my benefits as a guest were limited to a comped ticket and generous goodie bag.
Soon, I am sharing a taxi with a Dubai-based journalist, a Colombian director, and the cypherpunk sponsor of the pitch competition I didn’t win.
The pierogies I dreamed of earlier that day somehow manifest (happy endings do exist), and we enjoy a raucous dinner including obligatory slivovitz.
Sunday 2AM The last few hours of blur include a bracing city-bike ride in a crew of nine attendees back to the Palace of Culture, chatting with a fellow bitcoin meetup organiser, and vaguely promising to attend a weekend rave with a crew of Polish artists and musicians on the outskirts of London.
I leave the party while it’s still in full swing. In five hours, I have to wake up to complete my Run for Hal in Marshal Edward Rydz-Śmigły Park.
Thursday 9PM The festival kicks off in Samo Centrum on Pizza Day. I arrive in a taxi straight from a cramped flight (fix the airlines!), having not eaten for around ten hours.
The infectious sounds of softly spoken Aussie bitrocker Roger9000 pound into the damp night. I’m three beers in, being presented by the organisers to attendees like a (very tall) show pony. I try to explain more about my books, my publishing connections, my short film.
When I search for the food I ordered an hour ago, I find it has been given away. The stern-faced Polish pizza maker shrugs. ‘You not here.’
I’m so hungry I could cry (six hours of Ryanair can do that to a man). And then, a heroic Czech pleb donates half a pizza to me. Side note: this same heroic pleb accidentally locked me out of my film-funds while trying to fix a wallet bug on Sunday night.
I step out into the rain. Roger9000 reminds us we should have laser eyes well past 100k. I take a bite of pizza and life tastes good.
The Films Side events, artists, late nights, and pitcher’s regret is all well and good, but what of the films?
My highlights included Golden Rabbit winner No More Inflation — a moving narrative with interviews from two dozen economists, visionaries, and inflation survivors.
Hotel Bitcoin, was a surprisingly funny comedy romp about a group of idiots who happen across a valuable laptop.
Revolución Bitcoin — an approachable and thorough documentary aimed to bring greater adoption in the Spanish-speaking world.
And, as a short-fiction guy, I enjoyed the short films The Man Who Wouldn’t Cry, a visit to New York’s only Somali restaurant in Finding Home.
Sunday 7PM The award ceremony has just finished. I head to Amondo for the final time to pay for mojitos in bitcoin and say goodbye to newly made friends. I feel like I’ve met almost everyone in attendance. Are you going to BTC Prague?!? we ask as we part ways.
Of course, the best thing about any festival is the people, and BFF25 had a cast of characters worthy of any art house flick:
- The bright-eyed and confident frontwoman of the metal band Scardust
- A nostr-native artist selling his intricate canvases to the highest zapper
- A dreadlocked DJ who wears a pair of flying goggles on his head at all times
- An affable British filmmaker explaining the virtues of the word ‘chucklesome’
- A Duracell-powered organiser who seems to know every song, person, film, book, and guest at the festival.
Warsaw itself feels like it has a role to play, too. Birdsong and green parks contrast the foreboding Communist-era architecture. The weather changes faster than my mood — heavy greys transform to bright sunshine. The roads around the venue close on Sunday for a political rally. And there we are in the middle, watching our bitcoin films.
Tuesday 10AM I’m at home now, squinting at my email inbox and piles of washing, wondering when the hell I’ll find time. The festival Telegram group is still buzzing with activity. Side events like martial arts tutorials, trips to a shooting range, boat tours. 5AM photos of street graffiti, lost and found items, and people asking ‘is anyone still around?’
This was not just a film festival. BFF is truly a celebration of culture — Art. Books. Comedy. Music. Video. Talk. Connection.
All this pure signal has lifted my spirits so much that despite me being a newbie filmmaker, armed only with a biro, a couple of powerpoints and a Geyser fund page, I know I will succeed in my mission. It turns out you can just film things.
You may have attended bitcoin conferences before — you know, the ones with ‘fireside chats’, VIP areas, and overpriced merch. Bitcoin FilmFest is a moment in time. We are fixing the culture, year after year, until art can flourish again.
As fellow author Aaron Koenig commented during a panel session, ‘In twenty years, we won’t be drawing laser eyes and singing about honey badgers. Our grandchildren won’t understand the change we went through.’
Would I do it all again? Of course!
Join me next June in Warsaw.
I’ll be the tall one presenting his short animation premiere.
Philip Charter is a full-time writer and part-time cat herder. As well as writing for bitcoin founders and companies, he runs the 21 Futures fiction project.
Find out more about theNoderoid Saga animation projecton Geyser.
-
@ 7e538978:a5987ab6
2025-05-29 10:32:34This article gives an overview and comparison of the various funding sources that are available for LNbits.
LNbits is compatible with many Lightning Network wallets and can be on anything from a small VPS to a raspberry Pi on your home network or the LNbits SaaS platform.
Why your funding source matters
There are trade-offs between the various funding sources, for example funding LNbits using Strike requires the user to KYC themselves and has some privacy compromises versus funding LNbits from your own LND node. However the technical barrier to entry and node maintenance of using Strike is lower than using LND.
Self-custodial vs custodial connectors
Self-custodial Funding Sources
You run the node or service, keep the keys, and may need to manage LN channels. Good if you want control and have the skills to look after a server. Examples: LND (gRPC/REST), CoreLightning, Spark.
Self-custodial funding sources with an LSP
These funding sources offer a reasonable compromise between self-custody and some privacy trade offs. Examples: Phoenixd, Breez SDK, Boltz.
Custodial (or semi-custodial) funding sources
A third party runs the node. You plug LNbits into their API. Setup is quick and costs are low, but you trust the provider with your funds and privacy. Examples: Alby, OpenNode, Blink, ZBD, LNPay or another LNbits instance.
Funding sources compared
Below is a summary of the main options and how they stack up.
LNbits Lightning Network Funding Sources Comparison Table
| Funding Source | Custodial Type | KYC Required | Technical Knowledge Needed | Node Hosting Required | Privacy Level | Liquidity Management | Ease of Setup | Maintenance Effort | Cost Implications | Scalability | Notes | |----------------------------|--------------------|---------------------|--------------------------------|---------------------------|-------------------|--------------------------|-------------------|------------------------|----------------------------------------------|-----------------|------------------------------------------------------------------| | LND (gRPC) | Self-custodial | ❌ | Higher | ✅ | High | Manual | Moderate | High | Infrastructure cost and channel opening fees | High | gRPC interface for LND; suitable for advanced integrations. | | CoreLightning (CLN) | Self-custodial | ❌ | Higher | ✅ | High | Manual | Moderate | High | Infrastructure cost and channel opening fees | High | Requires setting up and managing your own CLN node. | | Phoenixd | Self-custodial | ❌ | Medium | ❌ | Medium | Automatic | Moderate | Low | Minimal fees | Medium | Mobile wallet backend; suitable for mobile integrations. | | Nostr Wallet Connect (NWC) | Custodial | Depends on provider | Low | ❌ | Variable | Provider-managed | Easy | Low | May incur fees | Medium | Connects via Nostr protocol; depends on provider's policies. | | Boltz | Self-custodial | ❌ | Medium | ❌ | Medium | Provider-managed | Moderate | Moderate | Minimal fees | Medium | Uses submarine swaps; connects to Boltz client. | | LND (REST) | Self-custodial | ❌ | Higher | ✅ | High | Manual | Moderate | High | Infrastructure cost and channel opening fees | High | REST interface for LND; suitable for web integrations. | | CoreLightning REST | Self-custodial | ❌ | Higher | ✅ | High | Manual | Moderate | High | Infrastructure cost and channel opening fees | High | REST interface for CLN; suitable for web integrations. | | LNbits (another instance) | Custodial | Depends on host | Low | ❌ | Variable | Provider-managed | Easy | Low | May incur hosting fees | Medium | Connects to another LNbits instance; depends on host's policies. | | Alby | Custodial | ✅ | Low | ❌ | Low | Provider-managed | Easy | Low | Transaction fees apply | Medium | Browser extension wallet; suitable for web users. | | Breez SDK | Self-custodial | ❌ | Medium | ❌ | High | Automatic | Moderate | Low | Minimal fees | Medium | SDK for integrating Breez wallet functionalities. | | OpenNode | Custodial | ✅ | Low | ❌ | Low | Provider-managed | Easy | Low | Transaction fees apply | Medium | Third-party service; suitable for merchants. | | Blink | Custodial | ✅ | Low | ❌ | Low | Provider-managed | Easy | Low | Transaction fees apply | Medium | Third-party service; focuses on mobile integrations. | | ZBD | Custodial | ✅ | Low | ❌ | Low | Provider-managed | Easy | Low | Transaction fees apply | Medium | Gaming-focused payment platform. | | Spark (CLN) | Self-custodial | ❌ | Higher | ✅ | High | Manual | Moderate | High | Infrastructure cost and channel opening fees | High | Web interface for CLN; requires Spark server setup. | | Cliche Wallet | Self-custodial | ❌ | Medium | ❌ | Medium | Manual | Moderate | Moderate | Minimal fees | Medium | Lightweight wallet; suitable for embedded systems. | | Strike | Custodial | ✅ | Low | ❌ | Low | Provider-managed | Easy | Low | Transaction fees apply | Medium | Third-party service; suitable for quick setups. | | LNPay | Custodial | ✅ | Low | ❌ | Low | Provider-managed | Easy | Low | Transaction fees apply | Medium | Third-party service; suitable for quick setups. |
Which source suits you?
| Scenario | Good fit | Why | | ------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------ | | Business running its own infrastructure | LND or CoreLightning on a Dell Optiplex or other dedicated machine | Full control, high throughput, best privacy. | | Independent node runner | Spark (CLN) or LND (REST/gRPC) | You already run a node and want a clean web interface. | | Quick proof of concept | Alby, LNPay, or another hosted LNbits | No hardware needed, lets you test ideas fast. |
Run LNbits
Ready to run LNbits?
Choose a funding source, follow the guides, and start today.
Further reading
- LNbits documentation
- LND – gRPC and REST guides
- CoreLightning – setup and Spark info
- Breez SDK
- Phoenixd
- Nostr Wallet Connect
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@ 5f078e90:b2bacaa3
2025-05-29 09:33:22Frog named Gus
This is a test from Hive to Nostr, longform script, some markdown included. google link, 400 char. story.
In a lush pond, a green frog named Gus lived among lily pads. Each dawn, he croaked a cheerful tune, waking the dragonflies. One day, a heron eyed him hungrily. Gus, clever and quick, hopped beneath a broad leaf, blending perfectly. The heron, fooled, flew off. That evening, Gus sang louder, celebrating his escape. His friends—turtles and minnows—joined the chorus under the moon's glow. Gus’s courage inspired them all, proving wit outshines size. The pond thrived, with Gus as its spirited guardian, forever hopping and croaking in joy.
This was a test, please ignore.
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@ 5f078e90:b2bacaa3
2025-05-29 09:23:18May 29 badger test story
h2n, bi, some md, >380
In a dusty savanna, a honey badger named Hank prowled with fearless grit. Each night, he raided beehives, dodging stings with cunning twists. One day, a lion blocked his path, roaring fiercely. Hank, unfazed, bared his teeth and charged, startling the beast. The lion fled, and Hank strutted on, claws clicking. His boldness rallied jackals and birds, who sang his tale under starry skies. Hank’s fierce heart made him the savanna’s legend, guarding its wild spirit with every fearless step.
This is just a test, please ignore.
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@ 5f078e90:b2bacaa3
2025-05-29 09:10:54Gecky story - just a test
In a sun-dappled jungle, Zippy the gecko darted across a broad leaf, his emerald scales glinting. Chasing a juicy cricket, he leaped, only to slip into a pitcher plant’s slippery trap. With sticky toes, Zippy clung to the edge, heart racing. A curious frog peered in, offering a vine. Grateful, Zippy climbed out, sharing his cricket with his new friend. Under the moon’s glow, they danced on the leaves, tales of their adventure echoing through the jungle night.
Character count: 408
This was just a test. Ignore it.
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@ 7d33ba57:1b82db35
2025-05-29 08:40:35Lingen (Ems) is a peaceful town in Lower Saxony, near the Dutch border, known for its historic old town, green surroundings, and relaxed pace of life. It may not be on the typical tourist radar, but it offers a taste of small-town Germany with plenty of charm and local culture.
🏘️ What to See and Do in Lingen
🏛️ Old Town & Market Square
- Stroll through the historic town center, where you’ll find half-timbered houses, cozy cafés, and the lovely St. Boniface Church
- The Rathaus (Town Hall) and its square are perfect for a slow coffee or people-watching
🚲 Nature & Outdoor Activities
- The region around Lingen is great for cycling and walking, especially along the Ems River
- Explore the Emsland countryside, filled with forests, meadows, and quiet villages
- Visit the nearby Emsland Moormuseum to learn about local peatland history
🎓 Student Vibes
- Thanks to the presence of a university, Lingen has a young and vibrant side, with cultural events and small live music scenes
🍺 Local Food & Drink
- Try regional dishes like Grünkohl (kale with sausage in winter) and Schnitzel in a local tavern
- Enjoy a drink at a beer garden or riverside café, especially in warmer months
🚆 Getting There
- Well connected by train, especially to Osnabrück, Münster, and the Dutch city of Enschede
- Great stop on a northern Germany road or rail trip
Lingen is ideal for travelers looking for peaceful towns, regional culture, and access to beautiful natural areas. It’s a place where you can slow down, bike along a river, and enjoy the local way of life.
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@ 866e0139:6a9334e5
2025-05-29 07:29:43Autor: Anna Nagel. (Bild: Lukas Karl). Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben. Sie finden alle Texte der Friedenstaube und weitere Texte zum Thema Frieden hier. Die neuesten Pareto-Artikel finden Sie auch in unserem Telegram-Kanal.
Die neuesten Artikel der Friedenstaube gibt es jetzt auch im eigenen Friedenstaube-Telegram-Kanal.
Wem in seinem Leben Schmerz zugefügt wurde, wer sich ungerecht behandelt fühlt oder wachen Auges in der Welt umschaut, kommt wahrscheinlich irgendwann mit der Frage in Berührung, wie das alles noch einmal «gut» werden kann. Wie kann die Welt sich mit sich selbst versöhnen? Und wie kann ich es selbst schaffen, mich mit ihr und den Menschen, die schlimme Taten vollbringen, wieder in harmonischer Akzeptanz zu verbinden? Kann und will ich gewisse Gräueltaten verzeihen oder gibt es das «Unverzeihliche»? Und selbst wenn ich wollte, wie könnte mir das gelingen?
Perspektivwechsel
Wenn wir an dem Zorn über begangenes Unrecht festhalten, schauen wir in der Regel aus immer derselben Perspektive auf das Geschehen. Mal um Mal erzürnen und empören wir uns darüber, erzählen uns und anderen stets die gleiche Geschichte, die uns allerdings – ebenfalls ein ums andere Mal – wieder selbst verletzt. Das Destruktive holt uns so ständig wieder ein; wir sehen und fühlen das unschuldige Kind und empfinden Verachtung für die Täter.
Die Perspektive zu wechseln lädt uns dazu ein, das Geschehen aus anderen Blickwinkeln zu betrachten und unser Bewusstsein von der schmerzlichen Wiederholung zu lösen. Wir können einmal weit rauszoomen und einen spirituellen Blickwinkel einnehmen, beispielsweise aus Sicht des All-ein-Bewusstseins, das sich in unzählige Seelen teilt, von denen wiederum Milliarden derzeit auf der Erde inkarniert sind. Dieses eine Bewusstsein möchte jede auch nur mögliche Erfahrung machen und durch die Trennung – die Erschaffung der Dualität – kann es sich selbst aus diesen Milliarden Persönlichkeiten heraus erfahren, um zu lernen. Während dieser scheinbaren Trennung vergessen wir, dass wir alle eins sind, dass wir alle aus demselben «Stoff» gemacht sind und nach diesem Spiel hier auf Erden unsere Erinnerung zurückerlangen und unsere Erfahrungen zurück geben in die eine «Quelle».
Unser aller Reise geht letztlich darum, hier auf der Erde aus diesem Zustand des Vergessens zu erwachen. Um dies zu erreichen und all diese Erfahrungen machen zu können und uns auch unter widrigsten Umständen an unsere wahre Essenz, an die Liebe, erinnern können, braucht es auch Akteure, die die Dunkelheit verkörpern – denn nur so haben wir die Wahl, ob wir uns von ihr einnehmen lassen oder uns für die Liebe und das Mitgefühl entscheiden. Der Täter sowie das Opfer sind dabei stets Aspekte unserer selbst – im Innen wie im Außen – und jeder einzelne verändert die Welt, indem er Liebe und Mitgefühl oder Hass und Verachtung wählt.
Eine etwas rationalere Herangehensweise wäre, zu schauen, was dazu führt, dass ein Mensch sich derart unmenschlich verhalten kann; also der Zugang über die Psychologie. Hier werden wir uns bewusst, dass jeder Täter auch einmal ein Kind war. Symbolisch sogar das Kind, mit dem wir jetzt im Beispiel mitfühlen und das wir gleichzeitig heute als erwachsenen Täter verachten. Natürlich kann man hier einwenden, dass nicht jedes Opfer zum Täter wird, aber man kann ebenso anerkennen, dass uns bei dieser Haltung das größte Stück fehlt; und zwar die Geschichte desjenigen, die Jahre dazwischen, sowie jeder einzelne Reiz und jedes Detail der Umstände.
Wie viel Schmerz und Leid muss ein Mensch erfahren, bis er unmenschlich wird? Mit Einbezug aller Umstände und Faktoren, der psychischen Schutzmechanismen traumatischer Erfahrungen sowie fehlender Ausbildung sozialer und empathischer Fähigkeiten auch im neuronalen Bereich kann man auch auf diesem Wege Verständnis erlangen. Sichtbar wird hierdurch auch, dass emotionaler Schmerz über Generationen weitergegeben wird und es schwer ersichtlich ist, wo denn die eigentliche Ursache liegt. Auch hier wird erkennbar, dass nur jeder bei sich anfangen kann und Verantwortung für seine Heilung – und damit gleichzeitig die anderer – übernehmen müsste, anstatt auf die Suche nach dem oder der «Schuldigen» zu gehen.
Was bedarf eigentlich der Vergebung?
Wenn es uns schwerfällt zu vergeben, also Groll und Verachtung loszulassen und Mitgefühl zu empfinden, ist es ebenfalls hilfreich, einmal hinzuschauen, worum es genau geht. Wenn es uns selbst betrifft, handelt es sich in der Regel um Schmerz, der uns willentlich, manchmal auch unbewusst, zugefügt wurde und den wir (noch) nicht loslassen können, weil er noch nicht verheilt ist. Darauf gehe ich später noch einmal ein. Oft geht es aber auch um uns unbekannte Menschen, von deren Verbrechen wir Kenntnis haben und deren Ungeheuerlichkeit uns aus der Fassung bringt. Es geht um Taten, die wir nicht nachvollziehen können, weder rational noch emotional. Wir meinen, selbst wenn jemand nicht spürte, was er anderen antut, so müsse er es doch wenigstens besser wissen. Das ist das, was uns Menschen ausmacht, mit anderen mitzufühlen und sie zu verstehen. Doch anscheinend gibt es Menschen, deren Persönlichkeit oder auch Psyche dazu absolut nicht in der Lage sind. Die keinen moralischen Kompass besitzen und keinerlei soziales Empfinden, denn sonst könnten sie bestimmte Taten nicht ausführen. Möglicherweise dissoziieren sie sich selbst so stark, dass diese für sie eine Normalität darstellen, sie diese entschuldigen beziehungsweise vor sich selbst rechtfertigen oder im extremen Fall keine Erinnerung mehr daran haben.
Uns erscheinen die fehlende Empathie sowie das fehlende Verständnis so fremd, dass wir es nicht nachvollziehen können. Uns fehlt die Nachvollziehbarkeit der Nichtnachvollziehbarkeit des Erlebens des anderen, und wir erachten diesen dadurch als unmenschlich. Denn menschlich wären doch eben diese Fähigkeiten wie Mitgefühl, Güte, Reflexion, Warmherzigkeit, Verständnis und Liebe. Zugleich erzeugen wir hier aber einen Konflikt, wenn wir sagen: «Da diese Menschen sich so unmenschlich verhalten, soll ihnen kein Mitgefühl und keine Vergebung entgegengebracht werden, sollen auch sie nicht menschlich behandelt werden», wodurch wir uns allerdings selbst unserer Menschlichkeit berauben.
«Aber der Täter hatte doch die freie Wahl, er hätte doch anders entscheiden können!» Ja, möglicherweise schon, aber jetzt haben wir die Wahl. Und wir haben viel leichtere Voraussetzungen dafür, menschlich zu handeln, weil wir gesunden Zugang zu unserer Empathie, Moral und unserer Ratio haben.
Hätte der Täter es geschafft, seinen Tätern zu verzeihen, würde er die Destruktivität, die er ab einem gewissen Zeitpunkt nicht mehr in sich tragen oder verdrängen konnte, nicht an anderen ausagieren. Es ist ihm nicht gelungen, vielleicht sogar weil etwas in ihm es für unmöglich hielt, Unmenschliches, das ihm zugefügt wurde, zu verzeihen. Aber uns kann es gelingen, diesen Kreislauf zu durchbrechen und uns nicht in ihn hineinziehen zu lassen; wir können dem «Dunklen» den Nährboden entziehen.
Manchmal nehmen wir an, würden wir das Unbeschreibliche verzeihen, bedeutete dies, dass wir es tolerieren oder gar gutheißen. Dem ist nicht so. Analog dazu habe ich manches Mal die Angst gehabt, würde ich aufhören, um meinen Freund zu trauern, bedeute dies, dass ich ihn nicht mehr vermisse. Auch das ist nicht richtig. Ich heile lediglich das, was mir Schmerzen zufügt, bis am Ende nur noch die Liebe bleibt. Und wenn wir verzeihen, ist es kein Gutheißen der Taten, es bedeutet ein Loslassen dessen, was uns damit verstrickt und das Destruktive nährt.
Mitgefühl beginnt bei uns selbst
«Daß ich dem Hungrigen zu essen gebe, dem vergebe, der mich beleidigt, und meinen Feind liebe- das sind große Tugenden. Was aber, wenn ich nun entdecken sollte, daß der armselige Bettler und der unverschämteste Beleidiger alle in mir selber sind und ich bedürftig bin, Empfänger meiner eigenen Wohltaten zu sein? Daß ich der Feind bin, den ich lieben muß - was dann?» – C. G. Jung
Mit diesem Zitat beginnt Dan Millman das Kapitel «Das Gesetz des Mitgefühls» in seinem Buch «Die universellen Lebensgesetze des friedvollen Kriegers». Die weise Frau lehrt dem Wanderer das Gesetz des Mitgefühls und erklärt, es sei «eine liebevolle Aufforderung, über unsere begrenzte Sichtweise hinauszuwachsen», auch wenn die Last dieser Aufgabe zuweilen sehr schwer wiegen könne. Genau deshalb müsse man daran denken, dass sie bei uns selbst beginnt und wir «geduldig» und «sanft» mit uns, unseren Gefühlen und Gedanken sein sollten.
Um dem – noch skeptischen – Wanderer zu veranschaulichen, wie wir Mitgefühl auch mit unseren Gegnern empfinden können, bat sie ihn, sich an eine Auseinandersetzung zu erinnern, in der er zornig, neidisch oder eifersüchtig war und sich diese Gefühle noch einmal zu vergegenwärtigen. Als er das tat, den Schmerz und die Wut wieder spürte, sagte sie zu ihm: «Und nun stell dir vor, daß der Mensch, mit dem du dich streitest, mitten in eurer erregten Auseinandersetzung plötzlich nach seinem Herzen faßt, einen Schrei ausstößt und zu deinen Füßen tot zu Boden sinkt.» Der Wanderer erschrak und auf Nachfrage der weisen Frau stellte er fest, dass er nun keinerlei Schmerz oder Wut mehr empfand. Sogleich aber kam ihm der Gedanke: «Aber – aber was wäre, wenn ich mich über den Tod dieses Menschen freuen würde? Wenn ich ihm nicht verzeihen könnte?», worauf die weise Frau antwortete: «Dann verzeih dir wenigstens selber deine Unversöhnlichkeit. Und in dieser Vergebung wirst du das Mitgefühl finden, das deinen Schmerz heilt, als Mensch in dieser Welt zu leben.»
Weiter erinnert uns die weise Frau daran, dass wir alle, während wir hier auf der Erde sind, Träume, Hoffnungen und Enttäuschungen haben; und dass diese, sowie letztlich der Tod, uns alle verbinden.
Es ist ein Prozess
Dan Millman sagt hier in Gestalt der Weisen Frau, dass Mitgefühl bei uns selbst beginnt und diesen Aspekt möchte ich noch einmal hervorheben. Es kann nämlich passieren, dass wir uns in einer oberflächlichen Vergebung wieder finden, weil wir meinen, es sei richtig und moralisch, anderen zu verzeihen, ohne aber die tieferen Schichten dabei zu fühlen. Das ist dann leider nichts anderes, als Verdrängung. Gerade wenn wir selbst Opfer von Ungerechtigkeit, physischer oder mentaler Gewalt wurden, ist es unerlässlich den Heilungsweg in Gänze zu durchschreiten, und in den Wachstumsprozess zu verwandeln, der uns Mitgefühl und Weisheit lehrt. Und dazu gehören die Wut auf das Begangene, die Verzweiflung, die Ungerechtigkeit und Ohnmacht zu fühlen, uns auf «unsere Seite» zu stellen und Partei für uns selbst zu ergreifen, bevor es ernstlich möglich wird, zu verzeihen. Zunächst fühlen wir mit uns selbst den Schmerz und befreien die Gefühle, die wir uns möglicherweise nie trauten zu fühlen, all die Wut und den Groll. Erst später kann dann aus dem Inneren heraus das weitere Erkennen stattfinden und Heilung und Vergebung geschehen.
Vergebung findet im Herzen statt
Die hier in diesem Text von mir aufgeführten Perspektiven sind nur zwei, drei kleine Beispiele für Sichtweisen, die man einnehmen könnte, um zu neuen Einsichten zu gelangen. Sie sollen niemanden von irgendetwas überzeugen, sondern als Anregung dienen. Denn letztlich geht es darum, Vergebung in sich selbst zu finden. Vergebung ist also etwas, das aus dem Inneren heraus entsteht; ein Ergebnis eines tiefen Verständnisses und Fühlens, ja eines Erkennens. Auf dieser Reise gehen wir unterschiedliche Blickwinkel und Versionen ab, bis wir im Herzen ankommen, es sich öffnet und wir plötzlich «klar» sehen. Daraufhin breitet sich Wärme im Körper aus, Liebe durchströmt uns, begleitet möglicherweise von einem Gefühl leiser Euphorie, möglicherweise auch einem leichten Schmerz und Tränen – sowohl ein paar der Traurigkeit als auch welchen der Dankbarkeit. Das Loslassen und die Befreiung sind spürbar und nur für jeden persönlich erfahrbar, der sich auf diesen Weg begibt und seine individuelle Ansicht findet, die ihn befreit und erlöst.
Meiner Meinung nach bedeutet also Vergebung eine Öffnung des Herzens, ein Erkennen und ein Hineinwachsen in die Perspektive der Liebe. Sie ist nicht auf rationaler Ebene zu finden; die rationale Ebene kann nur dabei helfen, den Weg zum Mitgefühl zu beschreiten, denn:
«Man sieht nur mit dem Herzen gut. Das Wesentliche ist für die Augen unsichtbar.»
– Antoine de Saint-Exupéry
Anna Nagel veröffentlicht auf ihrem Blog „Heimwärts“ seit Jahren zu den Themen Heilung, Bewusstsein, kollektives Erwachen, Gefühle, Spiritualität, Psyche, Kundalini und Philosophie.
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@ 83279ad2:bd49240d
2025-05-29 04:05:29 -
@ 83279ad2:bd49240d
2025-05-29 04:03:54 -
@ d3d74124:a4eb7b1d
2025-05-29 02:19:14language is a funny thing. the English grammar is one of the most, if the not THE most complicated grammars to learn.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Language_Aptitude_Battery\ DLAB. it's the test you take to see if you have a gift for language learning.
in my exploration of languages, first Chinese Mandarin, then software languages, context is king (Jesus is King). the surrounding context is different every where you go.
physical space context. we can't be two places at once. nostr allows for many languages, because you can provide your own digital context. our physical perspective give us a field of view. NOSTR clients give us a field of view into digital context.
math is a language.
bitcoin will be called a lot of things.
wizardry
some elections results are anchored in time. using bitcoin. what else should be? legal documents seem obvious. other cryptographic proofs.
zero knowledge proofs. something about curve trees.
Find your local BitDevs.
Shenandoah Bitcoin Club
pondering a Veteran's Day live music event in Frederick County, VA. who would show up to a lunch and learn with hardware wallets in testnet4 mode? to try shit out? local only, but you should do it where you are too if you're not local.
mining
getting better? Bitmain announces a "decentralized mining pool" but I doubt we'll see open source code if history follows. 256Foundation getting to business. working prototypes for the Ember One using USB and python are out there for those that know where to look. i am very bullish on mujina. very bullish. fun coinbase tricks happening too with CTV+CSFS.
p.s. written on primal's new article publishing UI.
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@ 502ab02a:a2860397
2025-05-29 01:40:28เรามาดู แลคเชอร์ประวัติศาสตร์ ที่พลิกโลกแห่งการเกษตรและอาหารของมนุษย์ชาติกันครับ เรามาดูความแยบยลที่สามารถจูงใจคนมากมายให้เห็นถึงข้อดีของเนื้อจากแลบ เขาทำได้ยังไง เรามาศึกษาการสื่อสารกันครับ
เรื่องมันเริ่มจากการประชุม World Economic Forum ปี 2015 ที่ศาสตราจารย์ Mark Post นักเภสัชวิทยาชาวดัตช์ ที่เรารู้จักกันไปแล้ว ซึ่งตอนนั้นเป็นศาสตราจารย์ด้านสรีรวิทยาของหลอดเลือดอยู่ที่ Maastricht University และเป็นผู้ร่วมก่อตั้งบริษัท Mosa Meat ได้ลุกขึ้นมาเล่าเรื่อง "เนื้อเพาะเลี้ยง" หรือ cultured meat ให้คนทั้งห้องฟัง
สิ่งที่เขาพูดมันไม่ใช่แค่นวัตกรรมใหม่ แต่คือคำเตือนที่จริงจัง ว่าถ้ามนุษย์ยังผลิตเนื้อสัตว์แบบเดิม เรากำลังวิ่งเข้าใกล้ปัญหาใหญ่ที่รออยู่ข้างหน้า
ศาสตราจารย์ Post เล่าไว้ได้น่าสนใจมาก เขาบอกว่าแค่จะได้แฮมเบอร์เกอร์ 1 ชิ้นขนาดหนึ่งในสี่ปอนด์ เราต้องใช้เมล็ดธัญพืช 7 ปอนด์ ใช้น้ำจืด 50 แกลลอน และพื้นที่ดินอีก 70 ตารางฟุต นั่นแปลว่าเรากำลังเปลี่ยนของดีในธรรมชาติ ข้าว น้ำ ดิน ไปเป็นของที่กินหมดใน 10 นาที แล้วหิวใหม่ได้ในอีกครึ่งชั่วโมง
เหตุผลก็เพราะวัวมันไม่ได้แปลงโปรตีนพืชมาเป็นเนื้อได้มีประสิทธิภาพนัก พูดอีกแบบคือ มันเปลืองเกินไป
ตอนนี้พื้นที่เพาะปลูกของโลกกว่า 70% ถูกใช้ไปในการผลิตเนื้อสัตว์ คิดดูสิว่าถ้าเราหาทางที่ดีกว่านี้ได้ เราจะมีพื้นที่ว่างกลับคืนมาแค่ไหน
แถมวัวไม่ใช่แค่กินเก่งนะ ยังปล่อยก๊าซเก่งด้วย โดยเฉพาะมีเทนที่ทำให้โลกร้อนพอๆ กับอุตสาหกรรมการขนส่งเลยทีเดียว ศาสตราจารย์ Post เล่าว่า ทุกครั้งที่เขาเห็นวัวยืนเคี้ยวหญ้า เขาไม่ได้เห็นแค่วัว...แต่เห็นเมฆก๊าซมีเทนลอยมาด้วย
และที่น่าคิดคือ เมื่อรายได้ของคนในอินเดียหรือจีนสูงขึ้น พวกเขาจะกินเนื้อเพิ่มตามรายได้ ซึ่งสถิติบอกว่าภายในปี 2050 ความต้องการเนื้อสัตว์จะเพิ่มขึ้นเป็น สองเท่า จากปัจจุบัน
แต่ศาสตราจารย์ก็ไม่ได้มองว่าเนื้อเป็นปีศาจ เขาบอกว่า มนุษย์ถูกสร้างมาให้รักเนื้อ เนื้อคือสิ่งที่มาพร้อมวิวัฒนาการ เราได้พลังงานจากมัน สมองเราใหญ่ขึ้นเพราะมัน และกลายเป็นมนุษย์เพราะมัน
แม้จะมีคนอีกกว่าสองพันล้านที่เป็นมังสวิรัติ ส่วนใหญ่อาจเพราะไม่มีทางเลือก แต่อย่างน้อยพวกเขาก็อยู่รอดได้ แต่ก็ปฏิเสธไม่ได้ว่า คนที่เคยล่า เคยกินเนื้อ จะรู้สึกตื่นเต้นทุกครั้งที่ได้แบ่งเนื้อกันบนโต๊ะ
ศาสตราจารย์ Post เองก็ยังชอบกินเนื้อ แต่เขาอยากได้เนื้อที่ได้มาจากทางเลือกที่ดีกว่า ไม่ใช่ทางที่พาโลกเข้า ICU
เนื้อเพาะเลี้ยงเริ่มจากหลักการง่ายๆ ที่เรารู้มาตั้งแต่ช่วงปี 2000 ว่า ในกล้ามเนื้อของสัตว์มี สเต็มเซลล์ รอคอยจะซ่อมแซมเนื้อเยื่อหากมันได้รับบาดเจ็บ
แค่เอาชิ้นกล้ามเนื้อเล็กๆ จากวัว ขนาดแค่ 1 ซม. x 1 มม. มาแยกสเต็มเซลล์ออกมาเลี้ยงให้ขยายตัว
เฮียว่าอันนี้น่าทึ่งมาก เพราะจากตัวอย่างเล็กๆ ชิ้นเดียว สามารถผลิตเนื้อวัวได้ถึง 10,000 กิโลกรัม เลยนะ!
แปลว่าเราสามารถลดจำนวนวัวทั้งโลกจากครึ่งพันล้านตัว เหลือแค่ประมาณ 30,000 ตัวได้เลย
และถ้าให้เซลล์กล้ามเนื้อพวกนี้อยู่ในสภาพแวดล้อมที่เหมาะสม มันก็จะเริ่มสร้างกล้ามเนื้อขึ้นมาเอง โดยเฉพาะถ้าเรากระตุ้นให้มันรู้สึกเหมือนกำลัง “ออกกำลัง” อยู่ เช่น ใส่แรงตึงเข้าไป
ทีมนักวิจัยของเขาเลี้ยงเซลล์เหล่านี้ให้เติบโตในรูปวงแหวนคล้ายโดนัท ครบ 3 สัปดาห์ กล้ามเนื้อจะเริ่มหดตัว สร้างความตึง และกลายเป็นเนื้อกล้ามเนื้อแบบเต็มตัวที่ดูไม่ต่างจากกล้ามเนื้อในสเต็กจริงๆ เลย
ปี 2013 ทีมของ Mark Post ผลิตเส้นใยกล้ามเนื้อจำนวน 10,000 เส้น เอามาทำแฮมเบอร์เกอร์ และนำไปเปิดตัวในงานแถลงข่าวที่ลอนดอน เป็นเหมือนการโชว์ทำอาหารผสมกับเปิดงานวิจัย
จุดประสงค์คือจะพิสูจน์ให้โลกเห็นว่า “เฮ้ย! สิ่งนี้ไม่ใช่แค่ไอเดียลอยๆ แต่มันทำได้จริง และจำเป็นต้องทำจริงๆ เพราะเรากำลังจะเจอวิกฤต”
ราคาแฮมเบอร์เกอร์ตอนนั้นคือ 250,000 ยูโร
มีเชฟผู้กล้าปรุง และอาสาสมัครสองคนลองชิม พวกเขาบอกว่า “ก็โอเคในฐานะเบอร์เกอร์ราคาเท่านี้ แต่ก็อยากได้รสเข้มกว่านี้หน่อย” เพราะยังไม่มีไขมัน เลยรสจืดไปหน่อย
แต่ที่สำคัญคือ พวกเขายืนยันว่า “มันคือเนื้อจริงๆ” ทั้งเนื้อสัมผัสและโครงสร้าง
แค่มีต้นแบบยังไม่พอ เพราะจะทำให้ขายได้จริง ต้องผ่านด่านสำคัญ เนื้อต้องผลิตได้โดยใช้ทรัพยากรน้อยกว่าการเลี้ยงวัวจริง การประเมินเบื้องต้นจาก University of Oxford พบว่า เนื้อเพาะเลี้ยงใช้พื้นที่น้อยลง 90% น้ำลดลง 90% พลังงานลดลง 60–70%
ทุกอย่างที่ใช้ในการเลี้ยงเซลล์ต้องมีจำนวนมากพอหรือหมุนเวียนใช้ได้ ที่น่าหนักใจคือ การเลี้ยงเซลล์ต้องใช้ “ซีรั่มจากลูกวัว” ซึ่งได้มาจากเลือดวัว ถ้าลดจำนวนวัว เราก็ไม่มีซีรั่ม แต่ตอนนี้มีงานพัฒนาไปเยอะแล้ว กำลังหาวิธีทำเซลล์กล้ามเนื้อโดยไม่ต้องพึ่งซีรั่มจากสัตว์
ไม่ใช่แค่โปรตีน แต่ต้องเป็น "เนื้อ" ในทุกความรู้สึก นักวิจัยพยายามปรับสภาพแวดล้อมการเพาะเลี้ยง เช่น ความเข้มข้นของออกซิเจน เพื่อให้เซลล์แสดงโปรตีนสำคัญ เช่น myoglobin ที่ทำให้เนื้อมีสีและรสชาติเหมือนเนื้อจริง
การยอมรับของผู้บริโภคเป็นอีกด่านสำคัญที่เนื้อเพาะเลี้ยงต้องข้ามผ่านให้ได้ ไม่ใช่แค่เรื่องรสชาติหรือคุณค่าทางโภชนาการเท่านั้น แต่ยังเป็นเรื่องของ "ใจ" ที่ต้องเปิดรับสิ่งใหม่ที่ไม่คุ้นเคย ศาสตราจารย์ Post เล่าว่า ในการสำรวจผู้บริโภคในอังกฤษและเนเธอร์แลนด์ พบว่ามีคนไม่น้อยที่ยินดีจะลองกินเนื้อเพาะเลี้ยง ถึง 52% ของชาวดัตช์ และ 60% ของชาวอังกฤษเลยทีเดียว
เขาเปรียบเทียบว่า จริงๆ แล้ว คนเรายอมกินฮอทดอกโดยไม่รู้ด้วยซ้ำว่าทำมาจากอะไร หรือผ่านอะไรมาบ้าง ขอแค่มัน "อร่อย ถูก และดูปลอดภัย" ก็เพียงพอแล้วสำหรับคนส่วนใหญ่ ดังนั้นเนื้อเพาะเลี้ยงจึงไม่ต่างกันมากนัก ขอเพียงให้คนรู้สึกว่า “กินแล้วไม่ตาย” และ “ไม่ได้แปลกจนใจฝ่อ” เท่านั้นแหละ วันหนึ่งมันก็จะกลายเป็นของธรรมดาในตู้เย็นเหมือนกับโยเกิร์ตหรือไส้กรอกนั่นเอง
ในด้านของราคา แม้จะยังไม่ถูกเท่าไส้กรอกในซูเปอร์ แต่ก็ลดลงมาไกลจากจุดเริ่มต้นแบบสุดๆ จากชิ้นต้นแบบราคา 250,000 ดอลลาร์ในปี 2013 ตอนนี้ต้นทุนลดลงมาเหลือประมาณ 65 ดอลลาร์ต่อกิโลกรัม (ยังไม่รวมเทคโนโลยีล้ำหน้าอื่นๆ ที่กำลังพัฒนาอยู่) ซึ่งก็ถือว่าอยู่ในระดับเดียวกับเนื้อวากิวหรือสเต๊กเกรดพรีเมียมเลยทีเดียว เป้าหมายคือทำให้ถูกลงอีก และผลิตได้ในระดับอุตสาหกรรมให้เพียงพอกับคนทั้งโลก ไม่ใช่ของฟุ่มเฟือยสำหรับคนรวยเท่านั้น
แต่วิสัยทัศน์ที่น่าสนใจจริงๆ คือ ภาพของอนาคตที่ศาสตราจารย์ Post วาดไว้ เขาเชื่อว่าเทคโนโลยีนี้เรียบง่ายพอที่จะขยายไปสู่ครัวเรือนหรือชุมชนเล็กๆ ได้ วันหนึ่งเราอาจได้เห็นการเพาะเลี้ยงเซลล์จากหมูที่เลี้ยงอยู่ข้างบ้าน แล้วเอาไปปั่นเป็นหมูสับแบบสดใหม่ ไม่ต้องฆ่าสัตว์ ไม่ต้องส่งโรงงาน ไม่ต้องตัดต่อพันธุกรรม แค่นั่งรอเหมือนหมักแป้งเปรี้ยว แล้วได้เนื้อสดๆ มาใส่ต้มจืด
และนั่นแหละคือ "การเปลี่ยนกรอบคิดเรื่องเนื้อสัตว์" แบบพลิกฝ่ามือ
มันจะไม่ใช่เรื่องการฆ่าอีกต่อไป ไม่ใช่เรื่องของฟาร์มกลิ่นฉี่ หรือสายพานโรงฆ่าสัตว์ มันจะเป็น "ผลิตภัณฑ์ใหม่" ที่เราสร้างได้ ควบคุมได้ และปรับแต่งได้ เช่น เพิ่มโอเมก้า 3 ในเซลล์ไขมันให้สูงขึ้น หรือทำให้เนื้อไม่มีคอเลสเตอรอลเลยก็ยังได้
แม้ศาสตราจารย์ Post จะเน้นเรื่องความมั่นคงทางอาหารและผลกระทบต่อสิ่งแวดล้อมเป็นหลัก แต่เขาก็ยอมรับว่า สำหรับคนกินทั่วๆ ไป ประเด็นที่ "ไม่มีสัตว์ต้องเจ็บปวด" จะกลายเป็นจุดขายที่สำคัญในใจของผู้บริโภค
เขาเชื่อว่า เมื่อวันนั้นมาถึง วันที่เรายืนอยู่หน้าตู้แช่ในซูเปอร์ แล้วเห็นผลิตภัณฑ์สองชิ้นวางข้างกัน — หนึ่งคือเนื้อวัวที่มาจากฟาร์ม และอีกหนึ่งคือเนื้อเพาะเลี้ยงที่ไม่เคยมีวัวต้องร้องไห้แม้แต่นิดเดียว — การตัดสินใจอาจจะไม่ง่าย แต่ "จะมีคนจำนวนมากขึ้นเรื่อยๆ ที่เลือกแบบไม่ต้องฆ่า"
เพราะสุดท้าย เราไม่ได้แค่กินเนื้อ… เรากำลังกิน “ความเชื่อ” ลงไปด้วย #pirateketo #กูต้องรู้มั๊ย #ม้วนหางสิลูก #siamstr
ใครสนใจดูคลิปก็กดตรงนี้ได้ครับ https://youtu.be/1lI9AwxKfTY?si=6CDBUl2yGBoHWc-P
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@ 048ecb14:7c28ac78
2025-05-29 00:49:55I recently set up a Raspberry Pi camera server that's so minimal and straightforward, I thought it was worth sharing. This isn't one of those over-engineered solutions with fancy features - it's just a basic, reliable camera feed accessible from any browser on my local network.
The Goal
I wanted something that: 1. Starts automatically when the Pi boots up 2. Captures images at regular intervals 3. Shows the latest image in a simple web page accessible from any device 4. Doesn't require complex setup or dependencies 5. Uses minimal resources on my old Raspberry Pi
The Hardware
Nothing fancy here: - Raspberry Pi 2B (yes, the ancient one from 2015!) - Raspberry Pi Camera Module (standard version) - Power supply - That's it!
The Result
The interface is minimal but does the job. It shows the latest image and auto-refreshes every couple of seconds.
How to Get Set Up
Getting this running on your own Pi is super simple:
-
Make sure your camera module is connected and enabled
bash sudo raspi-config # Navigate to Interface Options > Camera and enable it
-
Install the only dependency, ImageMagick (for rotation)
bash sudo apt update sudo apt install imagemagick
-
Clone the repository, and navigate to the implementation's directory
bash git clone https://github.com/rewolf/RpiCameraViewer cd simple
-
Start the camera server
bash ./start_camera_server.sh
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Access the feed from any device on your network
http://your-pi-ip-address:8080
That's it! No complex configuration, no fancy dependencies.
For more details consider reading the README
To make it start automatically on boot:
Add the following, with your specific installation path ```bash crontab -e
Add this line:
@reboot cd /path/to/RpiCameraViewer/simple && ./start_camera_server.sh ```
Configuration
There's not much configuration, but you can tweak few variables at the top of the
capture.sh
file to modify width, height, rotation, quality, etc:bash QUALITY=90 WIDTH=720 HEIGHT=1280 ROTATION=90 # Set to 0 to disable rotation
How It Works
The solution is very basic:
- A bash script (
capture.sh
) captures photos every few seconds by runninglibcamera-still
and sending a SIGUSR1 interrupt to signal it to capture a snapshot - The snapshot is rotated as needed with ImageMagick and saved with timestamps
- A symbolic link is updated to point to the latest image
- A minimal Python HTTP server serves a basic webpage showing the current image (the symlink), rendered to an HTML canvas
Note it does expose that directory to the whole LAN on :8080.
Give it a try if you need something like that quickly.
I have a plan to make a better implementation planned at some point, but for now this will do.
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@ ece127e2:745bab9c
2025-05-29 00:32:33vamos a ver que tal
*lo bueno es que si entro en https://makimono.lumilumi.app/ a la nota y agrego contenido , como éste ...quiero ver si lo añade o hace una nueva nota ?? *
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@ e9d7ed6f:f52b3346
2025-05-28 23:36:58I'd like to toss it off by thanking you my reader, friends, associates, strangers, bitcoiners, cryptonaires, economists, and critics from all walks of life for granting me this opportunity to write to you. yeah?...
Is that readable? Is there enough ink in this pen to write? Let me squash and develop a fresh script!
Okay now, that was one heck of a disaster introduction my friends.
That's not even the way Satoshi introduced his White paper back in 2008, or rather mined his first block. So dear reader, lets pretend this introduction never happened lets give it one more kick start.
Alright we are set so here we go...
Flavatos, Gateway Mall, the left ventricle of Lilongwe's heart, Malawi is where the aroma of a fresh bitcoin pizza sent waves of spattering energy, broadcasting to all nodes over the bitcoin network. Pizza crums spread over the table, folks and knives faced opposite directions, tomato sauce on the white plate had contours of pizza passage, a half baked joke & its laughter could be heard by passersby's heading inside the mall. It was chilly Saturday afternoon from outside but the soft drinks were a must to soften the well baked fragments of pizza which were being churned. All thanks to Larszlo Keyckenes. Phones where right on the table as the photographer snapped every detail of moment with his camera, trying to paint a bitcoin Monalisa, innocence was in the youthful energetic bitcoiners who filled left to right seats in pairs. Three tables were joined together making a table tennis appear short, but the waitress had to check for any empty slot to squeeze a chair in. We were twenty three with the expection of thirty but the space was just plentiful.
Flavatos was ready and set. The waitress again, with a smile of welcoming a guest whispered right besides where i was standing that the pizza is ready, but i had to HODL for a moment, we were just setting up the laptop which we would use to connect & listen to a presentation by John Miller, a distant relative and a bitcoiner we had talked of for weeks. As if am very good at analysing charts, the looks of the faces were eagerly waiting and i when i looked on my wrist i realised we didn't have much more time other than to start off, so i clapped my hands to capture everyones attention. I was excited to welcome all & really appreciate for sparing their time to come.
There was buzz in the atmosphere, all eyes glued to me as i thanked the cofounder Grant for pulling the strings, in our presence we had the cofounder of women of Satoshi Yankho who i was facing directly to my right hand side and threw me sparkle of acknowledgement, i couldn't forget & sweep under the mat, John Miller sponsor for the Bitcoin Pizza who is currently in the US & was waiting to deliver a speech on this very moment. All started off in the right order, my stomach tuned as my brain signaled the pizza image, sending tickling hunger sensation, so not to keep everyone waiting longer, i handed it over to Grant who quickly threw like free shot on the free throw line. There was genuine appreciation and he set the floor ready for John Miller to grace and unwrap the Pizza. When John took on the google meet space, we all fixed to our phones, eager to see John who was seven hours away from us, about two or three plane tickets to get where he was physically located. John delivered a twenty minute presentation that would make a fresh graduate take off his hat and really consider what they did the last four years of their university. There was a lot of knowledge on his presentation, highlighting the eminent nails to the coffin for US dollar, the chart and numbers didn't lie when he displayed how the purchasing power of the dollar has declined since 1971 post detachment from gold. He spoke with authority on why bitcoin, how Bitcoiners should continue orange pilling and detoxing all the pool of confusion of the current FIAT sytem. It was listening to wisdom of an old man, giving the torch to the young ones. The waitress had brought to the table clean white plates with some folks wrapped in a white napkin tissue that appeared so white as Satoshi's white paper. In no time the pizza was ready to bona petite, John wrapped up in a cousy style by saying, "keep stacking Sats and avoiding shitcoins. The attendees were in pairs and hands were rubbing, contemplating of how the first bite would feel. The enzymes were ready to digest. The next host, who happens to be the writer of this article had to take the floor and give short remarks to thank John, Grant and everyone. I saw the pizza being cut into slices, whilst others took sips of their favorite soft drinks, there were smiles from left to right check. The sound chewing was amplified, triggering my ear drums to some vibe. This was was a big family reunion. My signal for speaking almost went off as the aroma teased the mind, i saw the bubble from the fanta bottle float up but i was mature to handled the temper of my hunger. As the pizza halvening was going on, I reminded of how significant this moment was when Larszlo Heykens first made an offer of 10,000 BTC & how it signified use case of bitcoin as a medium of exchange and a resort of finality between two counterparts without any middleman. It surely was moment that reminded us of the free markets. Where two counterparts chose their own commodities of exchange and each left satisfied as finality of transactions. Truly those were the good old free market days. By the time i said goodbye, my counterparts had already mined half of the pizza brought. I was about to pop a question of where is my share when i saw three more full plates of pizza broadcasted & awaiting for verification. I knew i was in for a treat.
As i kept my hands, mouth and tummy busy, one surprising moment really fired me up with excitement. Grant stood up and surprised everyone by introducing his new friend from Kenya. He said they had met in Mulanje and how they came across each other was purely a barter coincidence of wants. Rather him explaining, he let our new Kenyan explorer share the fascinating story of how he wanted to send funds in Kenya but couldn't find means of transalating our local currency into the Kenyan shilling. So how could these two opposite worlds tie together? When he saw the post of bitcoin accepted here, it sparked the charge. Using Bitcoin, he was able to send funds in Kenya via bitcoin lightening wallet through Tando and Mpesa. As if we were in a cinema watching possibilities become realities, a demostration was showcased how inter transactions are done from a wallet of Satoshi lightening wallet to Tando whilst eating pizza in Malawi.
It was truly a fantastic orange day to pill and slice. See you in the next article as i continue to polish my writing skills.
Pacharo Nyirenda. Bitcoinboma An amature writer but soon to be pro writer & blogger!
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@ 2b998b04:86727e47
2025-05-28 23:24:05I’ve spent years chasing the promise of freedom.\ In startups. In faith communities. In movements that claimed to be for the people.
And yet — so often, that promise felt just out of reach.\ Conditional. Corporate. Sanitized.\ A freedom with fine print.
But here —\ Here in the thick of Bitcoin 2025, on Nostr, among misfits and builders and signal-bringers —\ something is alive.
It’s not a platform.\ It’s not a marketing strategy.\ It’s not another app promising to “empower” you while locking down your data and selling you out.
It’s freedom rooted in architecture.\ Decentralization not just as a buzzword —\ but as an expression of conviction.
A kind of freedom you can feel in your body:
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When you zap someone’s words because they moved you — not because an algorithm told you to.
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When your identity is yours — keys, not credentials.
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When no one can delete your story because you control the server, or because there is no server — just the relay of your choosing.
This isn’t utopia.\ There are egos. There’s noise. There’s still posturing.\ But it’s different.\ The center of gravity has shifted.
We’re no longer begging institutions to notice us.\ We’re building outside their jurisdiction.
And for the first time in a long time,\ freedom feels close.\ Tangible.\ Joyful.\ Alive.
This isn’t just about tech.\ It’s about trust.\ It’s about choosing to show up —\ to build\ to write\ to signal\ to keep going.
Even when it’s hard.\ Even when no one claps.
Because real freedom doesn’t come from being noticed.\ It comes from being sovereign.
And that’s something no one can take from me again.
—
Written in Las Vegas, during Bitcoin 2025.\ Posted via Nostr. Vibes co-authored by ChatGPT (“Dr. C”).\ Zap: https://tinyurl.com/yuyu2b9t
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@ a396e36e:ec991f1c
2025-05-28 22:27:45👤 Generation X and Bitcoin: Between Invisibility, Structural Disillusionment, and Defiance
Generation X, born between 1965 and 1980, has been largely sidelined in generational discourse. Unlike the baby boomers —symbols of stability and prosperity— or millennials and Gen Z —constant fixtures in the media and cultural spotlight— Gen X remains the least mentioned, the least studied, and often not even recognized by its own members as a distinct generation.
Today, they are in midlife —a period that, according to the U-shaped curve of happiness, is one of the most emotionally and psychologically difficult stages: deteriorating health, professional stagnation, and the dual burden of caring for both parents and children. But their condition is not just a matter of age —it’s the product of a unique convergence of economic and political failure.
Structurally, Generation X reached its crucial phase of financial consolidation during the global economic crisis of 2008 —a moment that froze wage growth and severely limited access to housing, investment opportunities, and savings. In parallel, they faced increasing labor precarization: unstable contracts, outsourcing, erosion of social protections, and the dismantling of job security. Compared to other generations, their economic mobility was minimal. Even in terms of wealth accumulation and home ownership, many Gen Xers show weaker indicators than early-born millennials at the same life stage.
At the same time, many countries —especially in Latin America and parts of Europe— turned toward alternative models to free-market systems: socialist proposals that promised redistribution, justice, and equality. But in practice, these models led to state dependency, excessive intervention, economic rigidity, and a loss of productive dynamism. The outcome was devastating: rising poverty, institutional decay, inflation, plummeting investment, growing corruption, and a widespread collapse of trust.
For a generation raised on values of effort, autonomy, and social mobility, this ideological shift brought a double betrayal —first from liberalism, which failed to deliver on its promises, and then from socialism, which entrenched poverty, dependency, and dysfunction.
And yet, while younger generations increasingly embrace state-centric proposals like universal basic income, subsidies, or nationalizations as progressive solutions, many in Gen X see these not as innovation, but as déjà vu —a recycling of failed models they’ve already lived and paid for.
It’s at this point that Bitcoin emerges as more than just a financial technology. For many Gen Xers, Bitcoin is both a symbolic and concrete response — a refuge from a system that betrayed them. It’s not just about investment. It’s about individual sovereignty. They call it “fuck you money” because it represents a total break from traditional structures: it doesn’t depend on banks, governments, political parties, or promises that never materialize.
Bitcoin is money without permission, without censorship, without planned devaluation. It’s a tool for radical autonomy. For a generation marked by skepticism, self-reliance, and disillusionment, it stands as a quiet but powerful form of resistance — a way of saying: “I don’t depend on you. I don’t believe you. I don’t need you.”
Today, while others debate new statist models or more market reforms, many Gen Xers are simply opting out. Bitcoin isn’t just an economic choice — it’s a stance. A way to reclaim the individual control the system once denied them.
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@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b
2025-05-28 20:37:58Bitcoin: Peer-to-peer sistem elektronskog novca
Satoshi Nakamoto
satoshin@gmx.com
Prevedeno na srpski sa bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf od strane ECD
Sažetak. Potpuna peer-to-peer verzija elektronskog novca omogućila bi slanje uplata putem interneta direktno od jedne strane ka drugoj bez posredovanja finansijskih institucija. Digitalni potpisi pružaju deo rešenja, ali se glavni benefiti gube ako je i dalje potrebna pouzdana treća strana za sprečavanje dvostruke potrošnje. Predlažemo rešenje problema dvostruke potrošnje korišćenjem peer-to-peer mreže. Mreža vremenski označava transakcije tako što ih hešuje u tekući lanac dokaza o radu (proof of work) temeljen na hešu, formirajući zapis koji se ne može promeniti bez ponovnog rada i objavljivanja dokaza o tom radu. Najduži lanac ne služi samo kao dokaz niza događaja, nego i kao dokaz da je taj niz događaja potvrđen od strane dela peer-to-peer mreže koja poseduju najveću zbirnu procesorsku snagu (CPU). Sve dok većinu procesorske snage kontrolišu čvorovi (nodes) koji ne sarađuju u napadu na mrežu, oni će generisati najduži lanac i nadmašiti napadače. Sama mreža zahteva minimalnu strukturu. Poruke kroz mrežu se prenose uz pretpostavku da svaki čvor čini maksimalan napor da poruku prenese u svom izvornom obliku i na optimalan način, a čvorovi mogu napustiti mrežu i ponovo joj se pridružiti po želji, prihvatajući najduži lanac dokaza o radu kao dokaz onoga što se dogodilo dok ih nije bilo.
1. Uvod
Trgovina na Internetu počela je da se oslanja skoro isključivo na finansijske institucije koje služe kao pouzdani posrednici pri obradi elektronskih plaćanja. Iako sistem radi dovoljno dobro za većinu transakcija i dalje trpi od inherentnih slabosti modela utemeljenog na poverenju.
Potpuno nepovratne transakcije zapravo nisu moguće, jer finansijske institucije ne mogu izbeći posredovanje u rešavanju eventualnih sporova. Troškovi posredovanja povećavaju troškove transakcija, ograničavaju minimalnu praktičnu veličinu transakcija i onemogućuju male, povremene transakcije jer postoji velika šteta zbog gubitka mogućnosti da se izvrše nepovratna plaćanja za nepovratne usluge. Uz mogućnost povraćaja transakcije, potreba za poverenjem raste. Trgovci moraju biti oprezni prema svojim kupcima i tražiti im više informacija nego što bi inače bilo neophodno. Određeni procenat prevara prihvaćen je kao neizbežan. Ovi troškovi i nepouzdanost plaćanja mogu se izbeći korišćenjem gotovine, ali ne postoji mehanizam za elektronsko plaćanje bez pouzdane treće strane.
Ono što je potrebno je elektronski sistem plaćanja zasnovan na kriptografskom dokazu umesto na poverenju, koji omogućava da bilo koje dve strane direktno i dobrovoljno međusobno trguju bez potrebe za posrednikom. Transakcije koje su nepovratne bi zaštitile prodavce od prevara, a escrow mehanizmi mogli bi se lako implementirati radi zaštite kupaca. U ovom dokumentu predlažemo rešenje problema dvostruke potrošnje korišćenjem peer-to-peer distribuiranog servera vremenskih oznaka (timestamp) za generisanje računarskog dokaza o hronološkom redosledu transakcija. Sistem je siguran sve dok pošteni čvorovi zajedno kontrolišu više procesorske snage procesora nego bilo koja udružena grupa napadačkih čvorova.
2. Transakcije
Elektronski novčić definišemo kao lanac digitalnih potpisa. Svaki vlasnik prenosi novčić na sledećeg digitalnim potpisivanjem heša prethodne transakcije i javnog ključa sledećeg vlasnika, dodajući ih potom na kraj novčića. Primalac transakcije može da verifikuje potpise, a time i lanac vlasništva.
Problem je naravno u tome što primalac ne može potvrditi da jedan od prethodnih vlasnika nije dva puta poslao isti novčić. Uobičajeno rešenje je uvođenje pouzdanog centralizovanog posrednika, kreatora novčića koji proverava sve transakcije. Nakon svake transakcije, novčić se mora vratiti kreatoru kako bi se izdao novi novčić i veruje se da samo za novčiće izdate direktno od kreatora možemo biti sigurni da nisu dva puta potrošeni. Problem sa ovim rešenjem je što sudbina čitavog novčanog sistema zavisi od kompanije koja kreira novčiće, jer svaka transakcija mora da prođe kroz nju, baš kao što je slučaj sa bankom.
Treba nam način da primalac bude siguran da prethodni vlasnici nisu potpisali nikakve ranije transakcije kojim bi potrošili taj novčić. Za naše potrebe, računamo transakciju koja se prva desila i ne zanimaju nas naredni pokušaji da se isti novčić ponovo pošalje. Jedini način da sa sigurnošću potvrdimo da taj novčić nije prethodno bio poslat je da imamo informacije o svim transakcijama koje su se ikada desile. U modelu baziranom na centalizovan kreatoru, taj kreator je imao informacije o svim transakcijama i odlučivao koja transakcija je prva stigla. Da bismo to postigli bez pouzdanog posrednika, transakcije moraju biti javno objavljene [1] i potreban nam je sistem u kojem učesnici mogu da se dogovore o jedinstvenoj istoriji redosleda kojim su transakcije primljene. Primaocu je potreban dokaz da se u trenutku dešavanja svake od transakcija većina čvorova složila oko toga da je baš ta transakcija bila ona koja je prva primljena.
3. Server vremenskih oznaka
Rešenje koje predlažemo počinje serverom vremenskih oznaka. Server vremenske oznake radi tako što uzima heš bloka podataka kojem će se dodeliti vremenska oznaka i objavi taj heš svima u mreži, slično kao u novinama ili kao post na Usenet mreži [2-5]. Vremenska oznaka očigledno dokazuje da su podaci morali postojati u to vreme kako bi ušli u haš. Svaka vremenska oznaka sadrži prethodnu vremensku oznaku u svom hešu, formirajući tako lanac, pri čemu svaka dodatna vremenska oznaka pojačava potvrde onih pre nje.
4. Dokaz o radu (Proof-of-Work)
Da bismo implementirali distribuirani server vremenskih oznaka na peer-to-peer principu, moraćemo da koristimo sistem dokaza o radu sličan Hashcash-u Adama Back-a [6], umesto Uneset postova ili novinskih objava. Dokaz o radu uključuje traženje vrednosti koja će, kada se hešuje, na primer pomoću SHA-256 heš funkcije, stvarati heš čiji binarni zapis započinje određenim brojem nula. Prosečna količina potrebnog rada eksponencijalno raste sa brojem potrebnih početnih nula, a može se proveriti izvršavanjem samo jedne heš fuknkcije.
Za našu mrežu vremenskih oznaka implementiramo dokaz o radu povećavajući nonce broja u bloku sve dok se ne pronađe ona vrednost nonce-a koja daje hešu bloka potreban broj početnih nula. Jednom kada se procesorska snaga utroši kako bi se zadovoljio dokaz o radu, blok se ne može izmeniti bez ponovljenog rada. Kako se kasniji blokovi vežu na taj blok, rad potreban da se on izmeni uključivao bi i ponovno obrađivanje svih blokova nakon njega.
Dokaz o radu takođe rešava problem utvrđivanja većine pri odlučivanju. Ako bi se većina zasnivala na principu jednog glasa po IP adresi, mogao bi je narušiti svako ko je u stanju da glasa sa više IP adresa odjednom. Dokaz o radu u osnovi predstavlja jedan glas po jedinici procesorske snage. Većinska odluka je predstavljena najdužim lancem u čije je stvaranje zapravo investirano najviše rada prilikom dokazivanja. Ako većinu procesorske snage kontrolišu pošteni čvorovi, pošten lanac će rasti najbrže i nadmašiće sve konkurentske lance. Da bi izmenio neki od prethodnih blokova, napadač bi morao da ponovi dokaz o radu za taj blok i sve blokove nakon njega, a zatim da sustigne i nadmaši količinu rada poštenih čvorova. Kasnije ćemo pokazati da se dodavanjem novih blokova eksponencijalno smanjuje verovatnoća da će sporiji napadač uspeti da sustigne pošteni lanac.
Da bi se kompenzovalo povećanje brzine hardvera i promenljivo interesovanje ljudi za vođenje čvorova tokom vremena, težina obavljanja dokaza o radu (proof-of-work difficulty) određuje se prema prosečnom broju blokova krairanih za sat vremena. Ako se blokovi stvaraju prebrzo, težina se povećava.
5. Mreža
Koraci za vođenje mreže su sledeći:
1) Nove transakcije se prosleđuju svim čvorovima u mreži. 2) Svaki čvor prikuplja nove transakcije u blok. 3) Svaki čvor radi na pronalaženju dokaza o radu dovoljnog nivoa težine za svoj blok. 4) Kada čvor pronađe dokaz o radu, on emituje taj blok ka svim čvorovima. 5) Čvorovi prihvataju blok samo ako su sve transakcije u njemu ispravne i nisu već potrošene. 6) Čvorovi izražavaju prihvatanje bloka radeći na stvaranju sledećeg bloka u lancu, koristeći heš prihvaćenog bloka kao prethodni heš.
Čvorovi uvek smatraju da je najduži lanac ispravan i nastaviće da rade na njegovom produžavanju. Ako dva čvora istovremeno emituju različite verzije sledećeg bloka, neki čvorovi prvo mogu primiti jedan ili drugi blok. U tom slučaju svaki čvor radi na prvom koji je dobio, ali čuvaju drugu kariku lanca u slučaju da ona postane duža. Dilema će biti rešena kada se pronađe sledeći dokaz o radu i jedna karika postane duža; čvorovi koji su radili na drugoj karici lanca će se prebaciti na dužu kariku.
Emitovanje novih transakcija ne mora nužno doći do svih čvorova. Sve dok stižu do velikog broja čvorova, te transakcije će ući u blok. Slično važi i za blokove, ni oni ne moraju doći odmah do svih čvorova. Ako neki čvor propusti da primi informaciju o bloku, kada mu stigne sledeći blok,primetiće da je propustio jedan, pa će ga tražiti naknadno.
6. Podsticaj
Po pravilu, prva transakcija u bloku je posebna transakcija koja kreira novi novčić u vlasništvu kreatora bloka. Ovo daje podsticaj čvorovima da podrže mrežu i pruža način za početnu ubacivanje novčića u opticaj, budući da ne postoji centralno telo koje ih izdaje. Stalno dodavanje konstantne količine novih novčića liči na rudarenje zlata, gde rudari ulažu resurse kako bi izrudarili nove količine zlata i ubacili ih u opticaj. U našem slučaju ulaže se procesorsko vreme i električna energija.
Podsticaj se takođe može finansirati i transakcionim naknadama. Ako je iznos izlaznog dela transakcije manji od ulaznog, razliku čini naknada za transakciju koja se dodaje iznosu nagrade za kreatora bloka koji sadrži tu transakciju. Nakon što predefinisani broj novčića uđe u opticaj, podsticaj mogu u potpunosti činiti transakcione naknade, čime se sistem oslobađa inflacije.
Čvorovi su na ovaj način podstaknuti da ostanu pošteni. Ako je pohlepni napadač u stanju da angažuje više procesorske snage od svih poštenih čvorova zajedno, morao bi da bira između toga da poništi svoje izvršene transakcije i time prevari ljude ili da procesorsku snagu koristi za stvaranje novih novčića. On bi trebalo bi uvidi da je isplativije igrati po pravilima koja ga nagrađuju sa više novih novčića od svi drugi zajedno, nego da potkopava sistem i vrednost sopstvenog bogatstva.
7. Oslobađanje prostora na hard disku
Kada je dovoljno blokova dodato nakon poslednje transakcije novčića, prethodne transakcije tog novčića se mogu odbaciti kako bi se uštedeo prostor na hard disku. Kako bi se to ostvarilo bez razbijanja heša bloka, transakcije su hešovane u Merkleovo stablo (Merkle Tree) [7] [2] [5], gde je samo koren uključen u heš bloka. Stari blokovi se tada mogu sabiti uklanjanjem nepotrebnih grana drveta. Unutrašnji heševi ne moraju biti skladišteni.
Zaglavlje bloka bez transakcija bilo bi oko 80 bajtova. Ako pretpostavimo da su blokovi generisani svakih 10 minuta, 80 bajtova * 6 * 24 * 365 = 4,2 MB godišnje. Imajući u vidu činjenicu da se u 2008. godini računari uglavnom prodaju sa oko 2 GB RAM-a i Murov zakon koji predviđa trenutni rast od 1,2 GB godišnje, skladištenje ne bi trebalo da predstavlja problem čak i ako se zaglavlja bloka moraju čuvati u memoriji.
8. Pojednostavljena verifikacija plaćanja
Moguće je verifikovati plaćanja bez vođenja čitavog mrežnog čvora. Korisnik samo treba da sačuva kopiju zaglavlja blokova najdužeg lanca dokaza o radu, do koje može doći upitom ka mrežnim čvorovima dok se ne uveri da je dobio najduži lanac i dobije Merkleova granu
koja povezuje transakciju sa blokom u koji je uneta vremenska oznaka za tu transakciju. Ne može samostalno proveriti transakciju, ali povezujući je sa mestom u lancu može videti da je prihvaćena od strane čvora mreže i da su na njen blok dodati naknadni blokovi što dalje potvrđuje da ju je mreža prihvatila.
Kao takva, verifikacija je pouzdana sve dok pošteni čvorovi kontrolišu mrežu, ali je ranjiva ako napadač nadjača ostatak mreže. Čvorovi mreže mogu sami proveriti transakcije, ali napadačeve lažne transakcije mogu zavarati one koji koriste pojednostavljenu metodu verifikacije transakcija sve dok je on u stanju da nadjačava ostatak mreže. Jedna od strategija zaštite bila bi prihvatanje upozorenja čvorova mreže kada otkriju nevažeći blok, pri čemu bi korisnikov softver morao da preuzme ceo blok i sporne transakcije kako bi potvrdio nepravilnost. Biznisi koji primaju česte uplate će verovatno želeti da pokrenu i vode sopstvene čvorove radi brže verifikacije i potrebe da im sigurnost ne zavisi od drugih.
9. Kombinovanje i deljenje vrednosti
Iako bi bilo moguće pojedinačno rukovati novčićima, bilo bi nezgrapno kreirati zasebnu transakciju za svaki cent u toj transferu. Da biste dozvolili podelu i kombinovanje vrednosti, transakcije sadrže više ulaza i izlaza. Obično će postojati ili jedan ulaz iz veće prethodne transakcije ili više unosa koji kombinuju manje iznose, a najviše dva izlaza: jedan za samo plaćanje, a jedan koji vraća kusur, ako ga ima, nazad pošiljaocu.
Treba napomenuti da situacija u kojoj transakcija zavisi od nekoliko drugih transakcija, a te transakcije zavise od još mnogo više, ovde nije problem. Nikada ne postoji potreba za izdvajanjem istorije pojedinačne transakcije.
10. Privatnost
Tradicionalni bankarski model postiže odgovarajući nivo privatnosti ograničavanjem pristupa informacijama na strane uključene u transakciju i posrednika. Neophodnost javnog objavljivanja svih transakcija isključuje mogućnost primene pomenutog modela, ali privatnost se i dalje može zadržati na drugi način: čuvanjem javnih ključeva (public keys) anonimnim. Javnost može videti da neko šalje iznos nekom drugom, ali bez informacija koje povezuju transakciju sa bilo kim. Ovo je slično količini informacija koje objavljuju berze, gde se vreme i veličina pojedinačnih trgovina čine javnim, ali bez navođenja ko su stranke uključene u tu trgovinu.
Kao dodatni zaštitni zid, preporučljivo je koristiti novi par ključeva za svaku transakciju, kako ne bi bili povezane sa zajedničkim vlasnikom. Neka povezivanja su i dalje neizbežna kod transakcija sa više ulaza, koje nužno otkrivaju da su njihovi ulazi bili u vlasništvu istog vlasnika. Rizik je taj da bi se otkrivanjem vlasnik ključa mogle otkriti i ostale transakcije koje su pripadale tom vlasniku.
11. Proračuni
Razmatramo scenario u kome napadač pokušava da generiše alternativni lanac brže od poštenog lanca. Čak i ako se to postigne, to ne omogućuje proizvoljne promene u sistemu, poput stvaranje vrednosti ni iz čega ili uzimanje novca koji nikada nije pripadao napadaču. Pošteni čvorovi neće prihvatiti nevažeće transakcije kao uplatu i nikada neće prihvatiti blok koji ih sadrži. Napadač može samo pokušati da promeni jednu od svojih transakcija kako bi vratio novac koji je nedavno potrošio.
Trka između poštenog lanca i lanca napadača može se predstaviti kao binomska distribucija slučajne diskretne varijable (Binomial Random Walk). Uspešni ishod je da se pošten lanac produži za jedan blok, povećavajući svoje vođstvo za +1, a neuspešni ishod je da se napadačev lanac produži za jedan blok, smanjujući zaostatak za -1.
Verovatnoću da napadač nadoknadi određeni deficit možemo izraziti kroz problem kockareve propasti (Gambler’s Ruin Problem). Pretpostavimo da kockar sa neograničenim iznosom novca počinje sa zaostatkom i igra potencijalno beskonačan broj ponovljenih igara u pokušaju da nadoknadi zaostatak. Možemo izračunati verovatnoću za nadoknađivanje zaostatka ili da će napadač stići pošten lanac, na sledeći način [8]:
p= verovatnoća da pošten čvor pronađe sledeći blok q= verovatnoća da napadač pronađe sledeći blok qz= verovatnoća da će napadač ikada dostići z blokova zaostatka
S obzirom na našu pretpostavku da je p > q, verovatnoća pada eksponencijalno kako se povećava broj blokova koje napadač mora da nadoknadi. Sa šansama protiv njega, ako mu se u početku ne posreći, njegove šanse postaju manje i manje sa povećanjem zaostatka.
Sada razmatramo koliko primalac nove transakcije treba da čeka pre nego što postane
dovoljno siguran da pošiljalac ne može promeniti transakciju. Pretpostavljamo da je pošiljalac napadač koji želi da natera primaoca da veruje da mu je platio, a zatim nakon nekog vremena tu transakciju preusmeri ka sebi. Primalac će primetiti kada se to dogodi, ali pošiljalac se nada da će tad već biti prekasno.
Primalac generiše novi par ključeva i daje javni ključ pošiljaocu neposredno pre potpisivanja transakcije. Ovo sprečava pošiljaoca da unapred pripremi lanac blokova radeći na njemu neprekidno dok mu se ne posreći da stekne dovoljnu prednost i u tom trenutku izvrši transakciju. Kada se transakcija pošalje, nepošteni pošiljalac počinje tajno da radi na paralelnom lancu koji sadrži alternativnu verziju njegove transakcije.
Primalac čeka dok transakcija ne bude dodata u blok, i dok z blokova nije dodato nakon tog bloka. On ne zna tačno koliko je napadač napredovao, ali pod pretpostavkom da su pošteni blokovi kreirani očekivanom dinamikom, potencijalni napredak napadača će biti prikazan kao Poasonova distribucija sa očekivanom vrednošću:
Kako bismo izračunali verovatnoću da napadač ipak može da nadoknadi zaostatak, množimo gustinu verovatnoće za svaki nivo napretka koji je mogao da ostvari sa verovatnoćom da od tog trenutka može da potpuno nadoknadi zaostatak:
Preuređujemo formulu kako bismo izbegli sabiranje beskonačnog broja sabiraka zbog repa distribucije:
I konvertujemo u programski kod u programskom jeziku C…
Kroz par primera, vidimo da verovatnoća opada eksponencijalno sa porastom z.
Rešavanje za P < 0.1%…
12. Zaključak
Predložili smo sistem za elektronske transakcije bez oslanjanja na poverenje. Počeli smo sa uobičajenim šablonom i novčićima nastalim iz digitalnih potpisa, koji pruža snažnu kontrolu nad vlasništvom, ali je nepotpun bez načina da se spreči dvostruka potrošnja. Kako bismo ovo rešili, predložili smo peer-to-peer mrežu koja koristi dokaz o radu za čuvanje javne istorije transakcija čija izmena napadačima brzo postaje računski nepraktična ako pošteni čvorovi kontrolišu većinu procesorske snage. Mreža je robusna u svojoj nestrukturiranoj jednostavnosti. Svi čvorovi rade istovremeno uz malo koordinacije. Ne treba ih identifikovati, jer se poruke ne usmeravaju na jedno određeno mesto nego samo trebaju biti prenete uz maksimalan napor od strane čvorova da se taj prenos odradi na predviđen način. Čvorovi mogu da napuste i ponovo se pridruže mreži po želji, prihvatajući lanac dokaza o radu kao dokaz onoga što se dogodilo dok ih nije bilo. Oni glasaju svojom procesorskom snagom, izražavajući svoje prihvatanje validnih blokova time što pokušavaju da ih nadgrade novim blokovima i odbacuju nevažeće blokove odbijanjem ih nadgrađuju. Sva potrebna pravila i podsticaji mogu se nametnuti ovim mehanizmom postizanja konsenzusa.
Reference:
[1] W. Dai, „b-money,“ weidai.com/bmoney.txt, 1998.
[2] H. Massias, X.S. Avila, and J.-J. Quisquater, „Design of a secure timestamping service with minimal trust requirements,“ In 20th Symposium on Information Theory in the Benelux, May 1999.
[3] S. Haber, W.S. Stornetta, „How to time-stamp a digital document,“ In Journal of Cryptology, vol 3, no 2, pages 99-111, 1991.
[4] D. Bayer, S. Haber, W.S. Stornetta, „Improving the efficiency and reliability of digital time-stamping,“ In Sequences II: Methods in Communication, Security and Computer Science, pages 329-334, 1993.
[5] S. Haber, W.S. Stornetta, „Secure names for bit-strings,“ In Proceedings of the 4th ACM Conference on Computer and Communications Security, pages 28-35, April 1997.
[6] A. Back, „Hashcash – a denial of service counter-measure,“ hashcash.org/papers/hashcash.pdf, 2002.
[7] R.C. Merkle, „Protocols for public key cryptosystems,“ In Proc. 1980 Symposium on Security and Privacy, IEEE Computer Society, pages 122-133, April 1980.
[8] W. Feller, „An introduction to probability theory and its applications,“ 1957.
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@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b
2025-05-28 19:59:23Originalni tekst na dvadesetjedan.com
Autor: Vijay Boyapati / Prevod na hrvatski: Matija
Sa zadnjim cijenama koje je bitcoin dosegao 2017., optimističan scenarij za ulagače se možda čini toliko očitim da ga nije potrebno niti spominjati. Alternativno, možda se nekome čini glupo ulagati u digitalnu vrijednost koja ne počiva na nijednom fizičkom dobru ili vladi i čiji porast cijene su neki usporedili sa manijom tulipana ili dot-com balonom. Nijedno nije točno; optimističan scenarij za Bitcoin je uvjerljiv, ali ne i očit. Postoje značajni rizici kod ulaganja u Bitcoin, no, kao što planiram pokazati, postoji i ogromna prilika.
Geneza
Nikad u povijesti svijeta nije bilo moguće napraviti transfer vrijednosti među fizički udaljenim ljudima bez posrednika, poput banke ili vlade. 2008. godine, anonimni Satoshi Nakamoto je objavio 8 stranica rješenja na dugo nerješivi računalski problem poznat kao “Problem Bizantskog Generala.” Njegovo rješenje i sustav koji je izgradio - Bitcoin - dozvolio je, prvi put ikad, da se vrijednost prenosi brzo i daleko, bez ikakvih posrednika ili povjerenja. Implikacije kreacije Bitcoina su toliko duboke, ekonomski i računalski, da bi Nakamoto trebao biti prva osoba nominirana za Nobelovu nagradu za ekonomiju i Turingovu nagradu.
Za ulagače, važna činjenica izuma Bitcoina (mreže i protokola) je stvaranje novog oskudnog digitalnog dobra - bitcoina (monetarne jedinice). Bitcoini su prenosivi digitalni “novčići” (tokeni), proizvedeni na Bitcoin mreži kroz proces nazvan “rudarenje” (mining). Rudarenje Bitcoina je ugrubo usporedivo sa rudarenjem zlata, uz bitnu razliku da proizvodnja bitcoina prati unaprijed osmišljeni i predvidivi raspored. Samo 21 milijun bitcoina će ikad postojati, i većina (2017., kada je ovaj tekst napisan) su već izrudareni. Svake četiri godine, količina rudarenih bitcoina se prepolovi. Produkcija novih bitcoina će potpuno prestati 2140. godine.
Stopa inflacije —— Monetarna baza
Bitcoine ne podržava nikakva roba ili dobra, niti ih garantira ikakva vlada ili firma, što postavlja očito pitanje za svakog novog bitcoin ulagača: zašto imaju uopće ikakvu vrijednost? Za razliku od dionica, obveznica, nekretnina ili robe poput nafte i žita, bitcoine nije moguće vrednovati koristeći standardne ekonomske analize ili korisnost u proizvodnji drugih dobara. Bitcoini pripadaju sasvim drugoj kategoriji dobara - monetarnih dobara, čija se vrijednost definira kroz tzv. teoriju igara; svaki sudionik na tržištu vrednuje neko dobro, onoliko koliko procjenjuje da će ga drugi sudionici vrednovati. Kako bismo bolje razumjeli ovo svojstvo monetarnih dobara, trebamo istražiti podrijetlo novca.
Podrijetlo novca
U prvim ljudskim društvima, trgovina među grupama se vršila kroz robnu razmjenu. Velika neefikasnost prisutna u robnoj razmjeni je drastično ograničavala količinu i geografski prostor na kojem je bila moguća. Jedan od najvećih problema sa robnom razmjenom je problem dvostruke podudarnosti potražnje. Uzgajivač jabuka možda želi trgovati sa ribarom, ali ako ribar ne želi jabuke u istom trenutku, razmjena se neće dogoditi. Kroz vrijeme, ljudi su razvili želju za čuvanjem određenih predmeta zbog njihove rijetkosti i simbolične vrijednosti (npr. školjke, životinjski zube, kremen). Zaista, kako i Nick Szabo govori u svojem izvrsnom eseju o podrijetlu novca, ljudska želja za sakupljanjem predmeta pružila je izraženu evolucijsku prednost ranom čovjeku nad njegovim najbližim biološkim rivalom, neandertalcem - Homo neanderthalensis.
"Primarna i najbitnija evolucijska funkcija sakupljanja bila je osigurati medij za čuvanje i prenošenje vrijednosti".
Predmeti koje su ljudi sakupljali služili su kao svojevrsni “proto-novac,” tako što su omogućavale trgovinu među antagonističkim plemenima i dozvoljavale bogatsvu da se prenosi na sljedeću generaciju. Trgovina i transfer takvih predmeta bile su rijetke u paleolitskim društvima, te su oni služili više kao “spremište vrijednosti” (store of value) nego kao “medij razmjene” (medium of exchange), što je uloga koju danas igra moderni novac. Szabo objašnjava:
"U usporedbi sa modernim novcem, primitivan novac je imao jako malo “brzinu” - mogao je promijeniti ruke samo nekoliko puta u životu prosječnog čovjeka. Svejedno, trajni i čvrsti sakupljački predmet, što bismo danas nazvali “nasljeđe,” mogao je opstati mnogo generacija, dodajući znatnu vrijednost pri svakom transferu - i zapravo omogućiti transfer uopće".
Rani čovjek suočio se sa bitnom dilemom u teoriji igara, kada je odlučivao koje predmete sakupljati: koje od njih će drugi ljudi željeti? Onaj koji bi to točno predvidio imao bi ogromnu prednost u mogućnosti trgovine i akvizicije bogatsva. Neka američka indijanska plemena, npr. Naraganseti, specijalizirala su se u proizvodnji sakupljačkih dobara koja nisu imala drugu svrhu osim trgovine. Valja spomenuti da što je ranije predviđanje da će neko dobro imati takvu vrijednost, veća je prednost koju će imati onaj koji je posjeduje, zato što ju je moguće nabaviti jeftinije, prije nego postane vrlo tražena roba i njezona vrijednost naraste zajedno sa populacijom. Nadalje, nabava nekog dobra u nadi da će u budućnosti biti korišteno kao spremište vrijednosti, ubrzava upravo tu primjenu. Ova cirkularnost je zapravo povratna veza (feedback loop) koja potiče društva da se rapidno slože oko jednog spremišta vrijednosti. U terminima teorije igara, ovo je znano kao “Nashov ekvilibrij.” Postizanje Nashovog ekvilibrija za neko spremište vrijednosti je veliko postignuće za društvo, pošto ono znatno olakšava trgovinu i podjelu rada, i time omogućava napredak civilizacije.
Tisućljećima, kako su ljudska društva rasla i otvarala trgovinske puteve, različite aplikacije spremišta vrijednosti u individualnim društvima počele su se natjecati međusobno. Trgovci su imali izbor: čuvati svoju zaradu u spremištu vrijednosti vlastite kulture, ili one kulture sa kojom su trgovali, ili mješavini oboje. Benefit štednje u stranom spremištu vrijednosti bila je uvećana sposobnost trgovanja u povezanom stranom društvu. Trgovci koji su štedili u stranom spremištu vrijednosti su također imali dobrih razloga da potiču svoje društvo da ga prihvati, jer bi tako uvećali vrijednost vlastite ušteđevine. Prednosti “uvezene” tehnologije spremanja vrijednosti bile su prisutne ne samo za trgovce, nego i za sama društva. Kada bi se dvije grupe konvergirale u jedinstvenom spremištu vrijednosti, to bi značajno smanjilo cijenu troškova trgovine jednog s drugim, i samim time povećanje bogatstva kroz trgovinu. I zaista, 19. stoljeće bilo je prvi put da je najveći dio svijeta prihvatio jedinstveno spremište vrijednosti - zlato - i u tom periodu vidio najveću eksploziju trgovine u povijesti svijeta. O ovom mirnom periodu, pisao je John Maynard Keynes:
"Kakva nevjerojatna epizoda u ekonomskom napretku čovjeka… za svakog čovjeka iole iznadprosječnog, iz srednje ili više klase, život je nudio obilje, ugodu i mogućnosti, po niskoj cijeni i bez puno problema, više nego monarsima iz prethodnih perioda. Stanovnik Londona mogao je, ispijajući jutarnji čaj iz kreveta, telefonski naručiti razne proizvode iz cijele Zemlje, u količinama koje je želio, i sa dobrim razlogom očekivati njihovu dostavu na svoj kućni prag."
Svojstva dobrog spremišta vrijednosti
Kada se spremišta vrijednosti natječu jedno s drugim, specifična svojstva rade razliku koja daje jednom prednost nad drugim. Premda su mnoga dobra u prošlosti korištena kao spremišta vrijednosti ili kao “proto-novac,” određena svojstva su se pokazala kao posebno važna, i omogućila dobrima sa njima da pobijede. Idealno spremište vrijednosti biti će:
- Trajno: dobro ne smije biti kvarljivo ili lako uništeno. Tako naprimjer, žito nije idealno spremište vrijednosti.
- Prenosivo: dobro mora biti lako transportirati i čuvati, što omogućuje osiguranje protiv gubitka ili krađe i dopušta trgovinu na velike udaljenosti. Tako, krava je lošije spremište vrijednosti od zlatne narukvice.
- Zamjenjivo: jedna jedinica dobra treba biti zamjenjiva sa drugom. Bez zamjenjivosti, problem podudarnosti želja ostaje nerješiv. Time, zlato je bolje od dijamanata, jer su oni nepravilni u obliku i kvaliteti.
- Provjerljivo: dobro mora biti lako i brzo identificirano i testirano za autentičnost. Laka provjera povećava povjerenje u trgovini i vjerojatnost da će razmjena biti dovršena.
- Djeljivo: dobro mora biti lako djeljivo na manje dijelove. Premda je ovo svojstvo bilo manje važno u ranim društvima gdje je trgovina bila rijetka, postalo je važnije sa procvatom trgovine. Količine koje su se mijenjale postale su manje i preciznije.
- Oskudno: Monetarno dobro mora imati “cijenu nemoguću za lažirati,” kao što je rekao Nick Szabo. Drugim riječima, dobro ne smije biti obilno ili lako dostupno kroz proizvodnju. Oskudnost je možda i najvažnije svojstvo spremišta vrijednosti, pošto se izravno vezuje na ljudsku želju da sakupljamo ono što je rijetko. Ona je izvor vrijednosti u spremištu vrijednosti.
- Duge povijesti: što je dulje neko dobro vrijedno za društvo, veća je vjerojatnost da će biti prihvaćeno kao spremište vrijednosti. Dugo postojeće spremište vrijednosti biti će jako teško uklonjeno od strane došljaka, osim u slučaju sile (ratno osvajanje) ili ako je nova tehnologija znatno bolja u ostalim svojstvima.
- Otporno na cenzuru: novije svojstvo, sve više važno u modernom digitalnom svijetu sa sveprisutnim nadzorom, je otpornost na cenzuru. Drugim riječima, koliko je teško da vanjski agent, kao korporacija ili država, spriječi vlasnika dobra da ga čuva i koristi. Dobra koja su otporna na cenzuru su idealna za ljude koji žive u režimima koji prisilno nadziru kapital ili čine neke oblike mirne trgovine protuzakonitima.
Ova tablica ocjenjuje Bitcoin, zlato (gold) i fiat novac (kao što je euro ili dolar) po svojstvima izlistanim gore. Objašnjenje svake ocjene slijedi nakon tablice.
Trajnost:
Zlato je neosporeni kralj trajnosti. Velika većina zlata pronađenog kroz povijest, uključujući ono egipatskih faraona, opstaje i danas i vjerojatno će postojati i za tisuću godina. Zlatnici korišteni u antičko doba imaju značajnu vrijednost i danas. Fiat valute i bitcoini su digitalni zapisi koji ponekad imaju fizički oblik (npr. novčanice). Dakle, njihovu trajnost ne određuju njihova fizička svojstva (moguće je zamijeniti staru i oštećenu novčanicu za novu), nego institucije koje stoje iza njih. U slučaju fiat valuta, mnoge države su nastale i nestale kroz stoljeća, i valute su nestale s njima. Marke iz Weimarske republike danas nemaju vrijednost zato što institucija koja ih je izdavala više ne postoji. Ako je povijest ikakav pokazatelj, ne bi bilo mudro smatrati fiat valute trajnima dugoročno; američki dolar i britanska funta su relativne anomalije u ovom pogledu. Bitcoini, zato što nemaju instituciju koja ih održava, mogu se smatrati trajnima dok god mreža koja ih osigurava postoji. Obzirom da je Bitcoin još uvijek mlada valuta, prerano je za čvrste zaključke o njegovoj trajnosti. No, postoje ohrabrujući znakovi - prominente države su ga pokušavale regulirati, hakeri ga napadali - usprkos tome, mreža nastavlja funkcionirati, pokazujući visok stupanj antifragilnosti.
Prenosivost:
Bitcoini su najprenosivije spremište vrijednosti ikad. Privatni ključevi koji predstavljaju stotine milijuna dolara mogu se spremiti na USB drive i lako ponijeti bilo gdje. Nadalje, jednako velike sume mogu se poslati na drugi kraj svijeta skoro instantno. Fiat valute, zbog svojeg temeljno digitalnog oblika, su također lako prenosive. Ali, regulacije i kontrola kapitala od strane države mogu ugroziti velike prijenose vrijednosti, ili ih usporiti danima. Gotovina se može koristiti kako bi se izbjegle kontrole kapitala, ali onda rastu rizik čuvanja i cijena transporta. Zlato, zbog svojeg fizičkog oblika i velike gustoće, je najmanje prenosivo. Nije čudo da većina zlatnika i poluga nikad ne napuste sefove. Kada se radi prijenos zlata između prodavača i kupca, uglavnom se prenosi samo ugovor o vlasništvu, ne samo fizičko zlato. Prijenos fizičkog zlata na velike udaljenosti je skupo, riskantno i sporo.
Zamjenjivost:
Zlato nam daje standard za zamjenjivost. Kada je rastopljeno, gram zlata je praktički nemoguće razlikovati od bilo kojeg drugog grama, i zlato je oduvijek bilo takvo. S druge strane, fiat valute, su zamjenjive samo onoliko koliko njihova institucija želi da budu. Iako je uglavnom slučaj da je novčanica zamjenjiva za drugu istog iznosa, postoje situacije u kojima su velike novčanice tretirane drukčije od malih. Naprimjer, vlada Indije je, u pokušaju da uništi neoporezivo sivo tržište, potpuno oduzela vrijednost novčanicama od 500 i 1000 rupija. To je uzrokovalo da ljudi manje vrednuju te novčanice u trgovini, što je značilo da više nisu bile zaista zamjenjive za manje novčanice. Bitcoini su zamjenjivi na razini mreže; svaki bitcoin je pri prijenosu tretiran kao svaki drugi. No, zato što je moguće pratiti individualne bitcoine na blockchainu, određeni bitcoin može, u teoriji, postati “prljav” zbog korštenja u ilegalnoj trgovini, te ga trgovci ili mjenjačnice možda neće htjeti prihvatiti. Bez dodatnih poboljšanja oko privatnosti i anonimnosti na razini mrežnog protokola, bitcoine ne možemo smatrati jednako zamjenjivim kao zlato.
Mogućnost provjere:
Praktično gledajući, autentičnost fiat valuta i zlata je prilično lako provjeriti. Svejedno, i usprkos pokušajima da spriječe krivotvorenje novčanica, i dalje postoji potencijal prevare za vlade i njihove građane. Zlato također nije imuno na krivotvorenje. Sofisticirani kriminalci su koristili pozlaćeni tungsten kako bi prevarili kupce zlata. Bitcoine je moguće provjeriti sa matematičkom sigurnošću. Korištenjem kriptografskih potpisa, vlasnik bitcoina može javno demonstrirati da posjeduje bitcoine koje tvrdi da posjeduje.
Djeljivost:
Bitcoine je moguće podijeliti u stotinu milijuna manjih jedinica (zvanih satoshi), i prenositi takve (no, valja uzeti u obzir ekonomičnost prijenosa malih iznosa, zbog cijene osiguravanja mreže - “network fee”). Fiat valute su tipično dovoljno djeljive na jedinice sa vrlo niskom kupovnom moći. Zlato, iako fizički i teoretski djeljivo, postaje teško za korištenje kada se podijeli na dovoljno male količine da bi se moglo koristiti u svakodnevnoj trgovini.
Oskudnost:
Svojstvo koje najjasnije razlikuje Bitcoin od fiat valuta i zlata je njegova unaprijed definirana oskudnost. Od početka, konačna količina bitcoina nikad neće biti veća od 21 milijun. To daje vlasnicima bitcoina jasan i znan uvid u postotak ukupnog vlasništva. Naprimjer, vlasnik 10 bitcoina bi znao da najviše 2,1 milijuna ljudi (manje od 0.03% populacije) može ikad imati isto bitcoina kao i on. Premda je kroz povijest uvijek bilo oskudno, zlato nije imuno na povećanje ukupne količine. Ako se ikad izumi nova, ekonomičnija metoda rudarenja ili proizvodnje zlata, ukupna količina zlata bi se mogla dramatično povećati (npr. rudarenje morskog dna ili asteroida). Na kraju, fiat valute, relativno nov izum u povijesti, pokazale su se sklonima konstantnim povećanjima u količini. Države su pokazale stalnu sklonost inflaciji monetarne kvantitete kako bi rješavale kratkoročne političke probleme. Inflacijske tendencije vlada diljem svijeta čine fiat valute gotovo sigurnim da će gubiti vrijednost kroz vrijeme.
Etablirana povijest:
Nijedno monetarno dobro nema povijest kao zlato, koje je imalo vrijednost za cijelog trajanja ljudske civilizacije. Kovanice izrađene u antičko doba i danas imaju značajnu vrijednost. Ne može se isto reći za fiat valute, koje su same relativno nova povijesna anomalija. Od njihovog početka, fiat valute su imale gotovo univerzalni smjer prema bezvrijednosti. Korištenje inflacije kao podmuklog načina za nevidljivo oporezivanje građana je vječita kušnja kojoj se skoro nijedna država u povijesti nije mogla oduprijeti. Ako je 20. stoljeće, u kojem je fiat novac dominirao globalni monetarni poredak, demonstriralo neku ekonomsku istinu, to je onda bila ta da ne možemo računati na fiat novac da održi vrijednost u dužem ili srednjem vremenskom periodu. Bitcoin, usprkos svojoj novosti, je preživio dovoljno testova tržišta da postoji velika vjerojatnost da neće nestati kao vrijedno dobro. Nadalje, Lindy efekt govori da što duže Bitcoin bude korišten, to će veća biti vjera u njega i njegovu sposobnost da nastavi postojati dugo u budućnost. Drugim riječima, društvena vjera u monetarno dobro je asimptotička, kao u grafu ispod:
Ako Bitcoin preživi prvih 20 godina, imat će gotovo sveopće povjerenje da će trajati zauvijek, kao što ljudi vjeruju da je internet trajna stvar u modernom svijetu.
Otpor na cenzuru
Jedan od najbitnijih izvora za ranu potražnju bitcoina bila je njegova upotreba u ilegalnoj kupovini i prodaji droge. Mnogi su zato pogrešno zaključili da je primarna potražnja za bitcoinima utemeljena u njihovoj prividnoj anonimnosti. Međutim, Bitcoin nije anonimna valuta; svaka transakcija na mreži je zauvijek zapisana na javnom blockchainu. Povijesni zapis transakcija dozvoljava forenzičkoj analizi da identificira izvore i tijek sredstava. Takva analiza dovela je do uhićenja počinitelja zloglasne MtGox pljačke. Premda je istina da dovoljno oprezna i pedantna osoba može sakriti svoj identitet koristeći Bitcoin, to nije razlog zašto je Bitcoin bio toliko popularan u trgovini drogom.
Ključno svojstvo koje čini Bitcoin najboljim za takve aktivnosti je njegova agnostičnost i nepotrebnost za dozvolom (“premissionlessness”) na mrežnoj razini. Kada se bitcoini prenose na Bitcoin mreži, ne postoji nitko tko dopušta transakcije. Bitcoin je distribuirana peer-to-peer (korisnik-korisniku) mreža, i samim time dizajnirana da bude otporna na cenzuru. Ovo je u velikom kontrastu sa fiat bankarskim sustavom, u kojem države reguliraju banke i ostale institucije prijenosa novca, kako bi one prijavljivale i sprječavale protuzakonito korištenje monetarnih dobara. Klasičan primjer regulacije novca su kontrole kapitala. Npr., bogati milijunaš će vrlo teško prenijeti svoje bogatstvo u novu zemlju, kada bježi iz opresivnog režima. Premda zlato nije izdano i proizvedeno od države, njegova fizička priroda ga čini teško prenosivim kroz prostor, i samim time ga je daleko lakše regulirati nego Bitcoin. Indijski Akt kontrole zlata je primjer takve regulacije.
Bitcoin je odličan u većini gore navedenih svojstava, što mu omogućava da bude marginalno bolji od modernih i drevnih monetarnih dobara, te da pruži poticaje za svoje rastuće društveno usvajanje. Specifično, moćna kombinacija otpornosti na cenzuru i apsolutne oskudnosti bila je velika motivacija za bogate ulagače koji su uložili dio svojeg bogatstva u Bitcoin.
Evolucija novca
U modernoj monetarnoj ekonomiji postoji opsesija sa ulogom novca kao medija razmjene. U 20. stoljeću, države su monopolizirale izdavanje i kontrolu novca i kontinuirano potkopavale njegovo svojstvo spremišta vrijednosti, stvarajući lažno uvjerenje da je primarna svrha novca biti medij razmjene. Mnogi su kritizirali Bitcoin, govoreći da je neprikladan da bude novac zato što mu je cijena bila previše volatilna za medij razmjene. No, novac je uvijek evoluirao kroz etape; uloga spremišta vrijednosti je dolazila prije medija razmjene. Jedan od očeva marginalističke ekonomije, William Stanley Jevons, objašnjava:
"Povijesno govoreći… čini se da je zlato prvo služilo kao luksuzni metal za ukras; drugo, kao sačuvana vrijednost; treće, kao medij razmjene; i konačno, kao mjerilo vrijednosti."
U modernoj terminologiji, novac uvijek evoluira kroz četiri stadija:
- Kolekcionarstvo: U prvoj fazi svoje evolucije, novac je tražen samo zbog svojih posebnih svojstava, uglavnom zbog želja onog koji ga posjeduje. Školjke, perlice i zlato su bili sakupljani prije nego su poprimili poznatije uloge novca.
- Spremište vrijednosti: Jednom kada je novac tražen od dovoljnog broja ljudi, biti će prepoznat kao način za čuvanje i spremanje vrijednosti kroz vrijeme. Kada neko dobro postane široko korišteno kao spremište vrijednosti, njegova kupovna moć raste sa povećanom potražnjom za tu svrhu. Kupovna moć spremišta vrijednosti će u jednom trenutku doći do vrhunca, kada je dovolno rašireno i broj novih ljudi koji ga potražuju splasne.
- Sredstvo razmjene: Kada je novac potpuno etabliran kao spremište vrijednosti, njegova kupovna moć se stabilizira. Nakon toga, postane prikladno sredstvo razmjene zbog stabilnosti svoje cijene. U najranijim danima Bitcoina, mnogi ljudi nisu shvaćali koju buduću cijenu plaćaju koristeći bitcoine kao sredstvo razmjene, umjesto kao novonastalo spremište vrijednosti. Poznata priča o čovjeku koji je za 10,000 bitcoina (vrijednih oko 94 milijuna dolara kada je ovaj članak napisan) za dvije pizze ilustrira ovaj problem.
- Jedinica računanja vrijednosti: Jednom kada je novac široko korišten kao sredstvo razmjene, dobra će biti vrednovana u njemu, tj. većina cijena će biti izražena u njemu. Uobičajena zabluda je da je većinu dobara moguće zamijeniti za bitcoine danas. Npr., premda je možda moguće kupiti šalicu kave za bitcoine, izlistana cijena nije prava bitcoin cijena; zapravo se radi o cijeni u državnoj valuti koju želi trgovac, preračunatu u bitcoin po trenutnoj tržišnoj cijeni. Kad bi cijena bitcoina pala u odnosu na valutu, vrijednost šalice izražena u bitcoinima bi se povećala. Od trenutka kada trgovci budu voljni prihvaćani bitcoine kao platežno sredstvo, bez obraćanja pažnje na vrijednost bitcoina u državnoj fiat valuti, moći ćemo reći da je Bitcoin zaista postao jedinica računanja vrijednosti.
Monetarna dobra koja još nisu jedinice računanja vrijednosti možemo smatrati “djelomično monetiziranima.” Danas zlato ima takvu ulogu, jer je spremište vrijednosti, ali su mu uloge sredstva razmjene i računanja vrijednosti oduzete intervencijama država. Moguće je također da se jedno dobro koristi kao sredstvo razmjene, dok druga ispunjavaju ostale uloge. To je tipično u zemljama gdje je država disfunkcionalna, npr. Argentina ili Zimbabwe. U svojoj knjizi, Digitalno zlato, Nathaniel Popper piše:
"U Americi, dolar služi trima funkcijama novca: nudi sredstvo razmjene, jedinicu za mjerenje vrijednosti dobara, i mjesto gdje se može čuvati vrijednosti. S druge strane, argentinski peso je korišten kao sredstvo razmjene (za svakodnevne potrebe), ali ga nitko nije koristio kao spremište vrijednosti. Štednja u pesosima bila je ekvivalent bacanja novca. Zato su ljudi svu svoju štednju imali u dolarima, jer je dolar bolje čuvao vrijednost. Zbog volatilnosti pesosa, ljudi su računali cijene u dolarima, što im je pružalo pouzdaniju jedinicu mjerenja kroz vrijeme."
Bitcoin je trenutno u fazi tranzicije iz prvog stadija monetizacije u drugi. Vjerojatno će proći nekoliko godina prije nego Bitcoin pređe iz začetaka spremišta vrijednosti u istinski medij razmjene, i put do tog trenutka je još uvijek pun rizika i nesigurnosti. Važno je napomenuti da je ista tranzicija trajala mnogo stoljeća za zlato. Nitko danas živ nije doživio monetizaciju dobra u realnom vremenu (kroz koju Bitcoin prolazi), tako da nemamo puno iskustva govoriti o putu i načinu na koji će se monetizacija dogoditi.
Put monetizacije
Kroz proces monetizacije, monetarno dobro će naglo porasti u kupovnoj moći. Mnogi su tako komentirali da je uvećanje kupovne moći Bitcoina izgledalo kao “balon” (bubble). Premda je ovaj termin često korišten kako bi ukazao na pretjeranu vrijednosti Bitcoina, sasvim slučajno je prikladan. Svojstvo koje je uobičajeno za sva monetarna dobra jest da je njihova kupovna moć viša nego što se može opravdati samo kroz njihovu uporabnu vrijednost. Zaista, mnogi povijesni novci nisu imali uporabnu vrijednost. Razliku između kupovne moći i vrijednosti razmjene koju bi novac mogao imati za svoju inherentnu korisnost, možemo razmatrati kao “monetarnu premiju.” Kako monetarno dobro prolazi kroz stadije monetizacije (navedene gore), monetarna premija raste. No, ta premija ne raste u ravnoj i predvidivoj liniji. Dobro X, koje je bilo u procesu monetizacije, može izgubiti u usporedbi sa dobrom Y koje ima više svojstava novca, te monetarna premija dobra X drastično padne ili potpuno nestane. Monetarna premija srebra je skoro potpuno nestala u kasnom 19. stoljeću, kada su ga vlade diljem svijeta zamijenile zlatom kao novcem.
Čak i u odsustvu vanjskih faktora, kao što su intervencije vlade ili druga monetarna dobra, monetarna premija novog novca neće ići predvidivim putem. Ekonomist Larry White primijetio je:
"problem sa pričom “balona,” naravno, je da je ona konzistentna sa svakim putem cijene, i time ne daje ikakvo objašnjenje za specifičan put cijene"
Proces monetizacije opisuje teorija igara; svaki akter na tržištu pokušava predvidjeti agregiranu potražnju ostalih aktera, i time buduću monetarnu premiju. Zato što je monetarna premija nevezana za inherentnu korisnost, tržišni akteri se uglavnom vode za prošlim cijenama da bi odredili je li neko dobro jeftino ili skupo, i žele li ga kupiti ili prodati. Veza trenutne potražnje sa prošlim cijenama naziva se “ovisnost o putu” (path dependence); ona je možda najveći izvor konfuzije u shvaćanju kretanja cijena monetarnih dobara.
Kada kupovna moć monetarnog dobra naraste zbog većeg i šireg korištenja, očekivanja tržišta o definicijama “jeftinog” i “skupog” se mijenjaju u skladu s time. Slično tome, kada cijena monetarnog dobra padne, očekivanja tržišta mogu se promijeniti u opće vjerovanje da su prethodne cijene bile “iracionalne” ili prenapuhane. Ovisnost o putu novca ilustrirana je riječima poznatog upravitelja fondova s Wall Streeta, Josha Browna:
"Kupio sam bitcoine kada su koštali 2300 USD, i to mi se udvostručilo gotovo odmah. Onda sam počeo govoriti kako “ne mogu kupiti još” dok im je cijena rasla, premda sam znao da je to razmišljanje bazirano samo na cijenu po kojoj sam ih kupio. Kasnije, kada je cijena pala zbog kineske regulacije mjenjačnica, počeo sam si govoriti, “Odlično, nadam se da će još pasti da mogu kupiti još.”"
Istina leži u tome da su ideje “jeftinog” i “skupog” zapravo besmislene kada govorimo o monetarnim dobrima. Cijena monetarnog dobra ne reflektira njegovu stopu rasprostanjenosti ili korisnosti, nego mjeru koliko je ono široko prihvaćeno da ispuni razne uloge novca.
Dodatna komplikacija u ovom aspektu novca je činjenica da tržišni akteri ne djeluju samo kao nepristrani promatrači koji pokušavaju kupiti i prodati u iščekivanju budućih kretanja monetarne premije, nego i kao aktivni proponenti. Pošto ne postoji objektivno “točna” monetarna premija, širiti dobar glas o superiornijim svojstvima nekog monetarnog dobra je efektivnije nego za obična dobra, čija vrijednost je u konačnici vezana na njegovu osnovnu korisnost. Religiozni zanos sudionika na Bitcoin tržištu vidljiv je na raznim internetskim forumima, gdje Bitcoineri aktivno promoviraju benefine Bitcoina i bogatstvo koje je moguće ostvariti investiranjem u njega. Promatrajući Bitcoin tržište, Leigh Drogen komentira:
"To je prepoznatljivo svima kao religija - priča koju si pričamo i oko koje se slažemo. Religija je krivulja na grafu prihvaćanja o kojoj trebamo razmišljati. Sustav je gotovo savršen - onog trenutka kada netko pristupi krugu Bitcoinera, to će reći svima i nastaviti širiti riječ. Onda njihovi prijatelji pristupe i nastave širiti riječ."
Premda usporedba sa religijom može staviti Bitcoin u iracionalno svjetlo, potpuno je racionalno za individualnog vlasnika da širi dobru vijest o superiornom monetarnom dobru, i za šire društvo da se standardizira oko njega. Novac djeluje kao temelj za svu trgovinu i štednju; tako da prihvaćanje superiornog oblika novca ima ogromne multiplicirajuće benefite za stvaranje bogatstva za sve članove društva.
Oblik monetizacije
U članku o Spekulativnom prihvaćanju Bitcoina / teorije cijene, Michael Casey postulira da rastući Gartner hype ciklusi predstavljaju faze standardne S-krivulje prihvaćanja novih tehnologija, koje su bile prisutne kod mnogih transformacijskih tehnologija dok su postajale uobičajene u društvu.
Svaki Gartner hype ciklus počinje sa eksplozijom entuzijazma za novom tehnologijom, a cijenu podižu oni sudionici na tržištvu koji su “dostupni” u toj fazi. Najraniji kupci u Gartner hype ciklusu obično imaju jaku vjeru o transformacijskoj prirodi tehnologije u koju ulažu. S vremenom, tržište dosegne vrhunac entuzijazma kako se količina novih kupaca iscrpljuje, te kupovinom počnu dominirati spekulatori koji su više zainteresirani u brze profite nego u samu tehnologiju.
Nakon vrha hype ciklusa, cijene rapidno padaju dok spekulativno ludilo ustupa mjesto očajavanju, javnoj poruzi i osjećaju da tehnologija nije uopće bila transformacijska. S vremenom, cijena dosegne dno i formira plato na kojem se originalnim ulagačima, koji su imali snažno uvjerenje, pridružuju nove grupe ljudi koji su izdržali bol kraha cijena i koji cijene važnost same tehnologije.
Plato traje neko vrijeme i formira, kako Casey kaže, “stabilnu, dosadnu dolinu.” Za ovo vrijeme, javni interes za tehnologiju opada, no nastaviti će se razvijati i snažna zajednica uvjerenja će polako rasti. Tada, postavlja se nova baza za sljedeću iteraciju hype ciklusa, dok vanjski promatrači prepoznaju da tehnologija i dalje postoji i da ulaganje u nju možda nije onoliko rizično kao što se činilo za vrijeme pada cijene. Sljedeća iteracija hype ciklusa donosi mnogo veći broj novih ljudi, pa je i ciklus daleko veći u svojoj magnitudi.
Jako mali broj ljudi koji sudjeluju u Gartner hype ciklusu će točno predvidjeti koliko će visoko cijena porasti za vrijeme ciklusa. Cijene često dosegnu razine koje bi se činile apsurdnima većini ulagača u raniji stadijima ciklusa. Kada ciklus završi, mediji tipično atribuiraju pad cijene nekoj od aktualnih drušvenih tema. Premda takva tema može biti okidač pada, ona nikad nije temeljni razlog zašto ciklus završava. Gartner hype ciklusi završavaju kada je količina dostupnih novih sudionika na tržištu iscrpljena.
Zanimljivo je da je i zlato nacrtalo klasičan graf Gartner hype ciklusa od kasnih 1970-ih do ranih 2000-ih. Moguće je spekulirati da je hype ciklus osnovna socijalna dinamika oko procesa monetizacije.
Gartner kohorte
Od početka trgovanja Bitcoina na mjenjačnicama 2010. godine, Bitcoin tržište je svjedočilo četirima velikim Gartner hype ciklusima. U retrospektivi, možemo vrlo precizno identificirati grupe cijena prethodnih hype ciklusa Bitcoin tržišta. Također, možemo kvalitativno odrediti kohorte ulagača koje su povezane sa svakom iteracijom prethodnih ciklusa.
0 USD –1 USD (2009. – 3. mjesec 2011.): Prvi hype ciklus u Bitcoin tržištu dominirali su kriptografi, računalni znanstvenici i cypherpunkovi koji su od početka bili spremni razumijeti važnost nevjerojatnog izuma Satoshija Nakamotoa, i koji su bili pioniri u potvrđivanju da Bitcoin protokol nema tehničkih mana.
1 USD - 30 USD (3. mjesec 2011. – 7. mjesec. 2011.): Drugi ciklus privukao je rane entuzijaste oko novih tehnologija kao i stabilan pritok ideološki motiviranih ulagača koji su bili oduševljeni idejom novca odvojenog od države. Libertarijanci poput Rogera Vera došli su u Bitcoin zbog aktivnog anti-institucionalnog stava, i mogućnosti koju je nova tehnologija obećavala. Wences Casares, briljantni i dobro povezani serijski poduzetnik, bio je također dio drugog Bitcoin hype ciklusa te je širio riječ o Bitcoinu među najprominentnijim tehnolozima i ulagačima u Silicijskoj Dolini.
250 USD – 1100 USD (4. mjesec 2013. – 12. mjesec 2013.): Treći hype ciklus doživio je ulazak ranih generalnih i institucionalnih ulagača koji su bili voljni uložiti trud i riskirati kroz užasno komplicirane kanale likvidnosti kako bi kupili bitcoine. Primaran izvor likvidnosti na tržištu za vrijeme ovog perioda bio je MtGox, mjenjačnica bazirana u Japanu, koju je vodio notorno nesposobni i beskrupulozni Mark Karpeles, koji je kasnije završio i u zatvoru zbog svoje uloge u kolapsu MtGoxa.
Valja primijetiti da je rast Bitcoinove cijene za vrijeme spomenuti hype ciklusa većinom povezano sa povećanjem likvidnosti i lakoćom sa kojom su ulagači mogli kupiti bitcoine. Za vrijeme prvog hype ciklusa, nisu postojale mjenjačnice; akvizicija bitcoina se odvijala primarno kroz rudarenje (mining) ili kroz izravnu razmjenu sa onima koju su već izrudarili bitcoine. Za vrijeme drugog hype ciklusa, pojavile su se rudimentarne mjenjačnice, no nabavljanje i osiguravanje bitcoina na ovim mjenjačnicama bilo je previše kompleksno za sve osim tehnološki najsposobnijih ulagača. Čak i za vrijeme trećeg hype ciklusa, ulagači koju su slali novac na MtGox kako bi kupili bitcoine su morali raditi kroz značajne prepreke. Banke nisu bile voljne imati posla sa mjenjačnicom, a oni posrednici koji su nudili usluge transfera bili su često nesposobni, kriminalni, ili oboje. Nadalje, mnogi koji su uspjeli poslati novac MtGoxu, u konačnici su morali prihvatiti gubitak svojih sredstava kada je mjenjačnica hakirana i kasnije zatvorena.
Tek nakon kolapsa MtGox mjenjačnice i dvogodišnje pauze u tržišnoj cijeni Bitcoina, razvili su se zreli i duboki izvori likvidnosti; primjeri poput reguliranih mjenjačnica kao što su GDAX i OTC brokeri kao Cumberland mining. Dok je četvrti hype ciklus započeo 2016. godine, bilo je relativno lako običnim ulagačima kupiti i osigurati bitcoine.
1100 USD – 19600 USD? (2014. –?):
U trenutku pisanja ovog teksta, tržište Bitcoina je prolazilo svoj četvrti veliki hype ciklus. Sudjelovanje u ovom hype ciklusu dominirala je ona skupina koju je Michael Casey opisao kao “rana većina” običnih i institucionalnih ulagača.
Kako su se izvori likvidnosti produbljivali i sazrijevali, veliki institucionalni ulagači sada imaju priliku sudjelovati kroz regulirana “futures” tržišta. Dostupnosti takvih tržišta stvara put ka kreaciji Bitcoin ETF-a (exchange traded fund) (fond na slobodnom tržištu), koji će onda pokrenuti “kasnu većinu” i “najsporije” u sljedećim hype ciklusima.
Premda je nemoguće predvidjeti točan efekt budućih hype ciklusa, razumno je očekivati da će najviša točka biti između 20.000 USD i 50.000 USD (2021. zenit je bio preko 69.000 USD). Znatno više od ovog raspona, i Bitcoin bi imao znatan postotak ukupne vijednosti zlata (zlato i Bitcoin bi imali jednaku tržišnu kapitalizaciju kada bi bitcoini vrijedili oko 380.000 USD u trenutku pisanja ovog teksta). Značajan postotak vrijednosti zlata dolazi od potražnje centralnih banaka, te je malo vjerojatno da će centralne banke ili suverene države sudjelovati u trenutnom hype ciklusu.
Ulazak suverenih država u Bitcoin
Bitcoinov zadnji Gartner hype ciklus će započeti kada ga suverene države počnu akumulirati kao dio svojih rezervi stranih valuta. Tržišna kapitalizacija Bitcoina je trenutno premala da bismo ga smatrali značajnim dodatkom rezervama većini zemalja. No, kako se interes u privatnom sektoru povećava i kapitalizacija Bitcoina se približi trilijunu dolara, postat će dovoljno likvidan za većinu država. Prva država koja službeno doda bitcoine u svoje rezerve će vjerojatno potaknuti stampedo ostalih da učine isto. Države koje su među prvima u usvajanju Bitcoina imat će najviše benefita u svojim knjigama ako Bitcoin u konačnici postane globalna valuta (global reserve currency). Nažalost, vjerojatno će države sa najjačom izvršnom vlasti - diktature poput Sjeverne Koreje - biti najbrže u akumulaciji bitcoina. Neodobravanje prema takvim državama i slaba izvršna tijela zapadnjačkih demokracija uzrokovat će sporost i kašnjenje u akumulaciji bitcoina za njihove vlastite rezerve.
Velika je ironija u tome što je SAD trenutno jedna od regulatorno najotvorenijih nacija prema Bitcoinu, dok su Kina i Rusija najzatvorenije. SAD riskira najviše, geopolitički, ako bi Bitcoin zamijenio dolar kao svjetska rezervna valuta. U 1960-ima, Charles de Gaulle je kritizirao “pretjeranu privilegiju” (“exorbitant privilege”) koju su SAD imale u međunarodnom monetarnom poretku, postavljenom kroz Bretton Woods dogovor 1944. godine. Ruska i kineska vlada još ne shvaćaju geo-strateške benefite Bitcoina kao rezervne valute, te se trenutno brinu o efektima koje bi mogao imati na njihova unutarnja tržišta. Kao de Gaulle u 1960-ima, koji je prijetio SAD-u povratkom na klasični standard zlata, Kinezi i Rusi će s vremenom uvidjeti korist u velikoj poziciji u Bitcoinu - spremištu vrijednosti bez pokrića ijedne vlade. Sa najvećom koncentracijom rudara Bitcoina u Kini (2017.), kineska vlada već ima znatnu potencijalnu prednost u stavljanju bitcoina u svoje rezerve.
SAD se ponosi svojim statusom nacije inovatora, sa Silicijskom dolinom kao krunom svoje ekonomije. Dosad, Silicijska dolina je dominirala konverzacijom usmjerenom prema regulaciji, i poziciji koju bi ona treba zauzeti prema Bitcoinu. No, bankovna industrija i federalna rezerva SAD-a (US Federal Reserve, Fed) napokon počinju uviđati egzistencijalnu prijetnju koju Bitcoin predstavlja za američku monetarnu politiku, postankom globalne rezervne valute. Wall Street Journal, jedan od medijskih glasova federalne reserve, izdao je komentar o Bitcoinu kao prijetnji monetarnoj politici SAD-a:
"Postoji još jedna opasnost, možda i ozbiljnija iz perspektive centralnih banaka i regulatora: bitcoin možda ne propadne. Ako je spekulativni žar u kriptovalutu samo prvi pokazatelj njezinog šireg korištenja kao alternative dolaru, Bitcoin će svakako ugroziti monopol centralnih banaka nad novcem."
U narednim godinama, možemo očekivati veliku borbu između poduzetnika i inovatora u Silicijskoj dolini, koji će pokušavati čuvati Bitcoin od državne kontrole s jedne strane, i bankovne industrije i centralnih banaka koje će učiniti sve što mogu da bi regulirale Bitcoin kako bi spriječile znatne promjene u svojoj industriji i moći izdavanja novca, s druge.
Prijelaz na medij razmjene
Monetarno dobro ne može postati opće prihvaćen medij razmjene (standardna ekonomska definicija za “novac”) prije nego je vrednovano od širokog spektra ljudi; jednostavno, dobro koje nije vrednovano neće biti prihvaćeno u razmjeni. Kroz proces generalnog rasta vrijednosti, i time postanka spremišta vrijednosti, monetarno dobro će brzo narasti u kupovnoj moći, i time stvoriti cijenu za korištenje u razmjeni. Samo kada ta cijena rizika mijenjanja spremišta vrijednosti padne dovoljno nisko, može dobro postati opće prihvaćen medij razmjene.
Preciznije, monetarno dobro će biti prikladno kao medij razmjene samo kada je suma cijene rizika i transakcijske cijene u razmjeni manja nego u trgovini bez tog dobra.
U društvu koje vrši robnu razmjenu, prijelaz spremišta vrijednosti u medij razmjene može se dogoditi čak i onda kada monetarno dobro raste u kupovnoj moći, zato što su transakcijski troškovi robne razmjene iznimno visoki. U razvijenoj ekonomiji, u kojoj su troškovi razmjene niski, moguće je za mladu i rapidno rastućnu tehnologiju spremišta vrijednosti, poput Bitcoina, da se koristi kao medij razmjene, doduše na ograničen način. Jedan primjer je ilegalno tržište droge, gdje su kupci voljni žrtvovati oportunu cijenu čuvanja bitcoina kako bi umanjili znatan rizik kupovine droge koristeći fiat novac.
Postoje međutim velike institucionalne barijere da novonastalo spremište vrijednosti postane sveopće prihvaćen medij razmjene u razvijenom društvu. Države koriste oporezivanje kao moćnu metodu zaštite svojeg suverenog novca protiv rivalskih monetarnih dobara. Ne samo da suvereni novac ima prednost konstantnog izvora potražnje, zato što je porez moguće platiti jedino u njemu, nego su i rivalska monetarna dobra oporezana pri svakoj razmjeni za vrijeme rastuće cijene. Ova metoda oporezivanja stvara znatan otpor korištenju spremišta vrijednosti kao medija razmjene.
Ovakvo sabotiranje tržišnih monetarnih dobara nije nepremostiva barijera za njihovo prihvaćanje kao općeg medija razmjene. Ako ljudi izgube vjeru u suvereni novac, njegova vrijednost može rapidno propasti kroz proces zvan hiperinflacija. Kada suvereni novac prolazi kroz hiperinflaciju, njegova vrijednost propadne prvo u usporedbi sa najlikvidnijim dobrima u društvu, kao što je zlato ili stabilna strana valuta (američki dolar npr.), ako su ona dostupna. Kada nema likvidnih dobara ili ih ima premalo, novac u hiperinflaciji kolabira u usporedbi sa stvarnim dobrima, kao što su nekretnine ili upotrebljiva roba. Arhetipska slika hiperinflacije je trgovina sa praznim policama - potrošači brzo bježe iz propadajuće vrijednosti novca svoje nacije.
Nakon dovoljno vremena, kada je vjera potpuno uništena za vrijeme hiperinflacije, suvereni novac više nitko ne prihvaća, te se društvo može vratiti na robnu razmjenu, ili će doživjeti potpunu zamjenu monetarne jedinice za sredstvo razmjene. Primjer ovog procesa bila je zamjena zimbabveanskog dolara za američki dolar. Takva promjena suverenog novca za stranu valutu je dodatno otežana relativnom oskudnošću strane valute i odsustvom stranih bankarskih institucija koje pružaju likvidnost tržištu.
Sposobnost lakog prenošenja bitcoina preko granica i odsustvo potrebe za bankarskim sustavom čine Bitcoin idealnim monetarnim dobrom za one ljude koji pate pod hiperinflacijom. U nadolazećim godinama, kako fiat valute nastave svoj povijesni trend ka bezvrijednosti, Bitcoin će postati sve popularniji izbor za ušteđevine ljudi diljem svijeta. Kada je novac nacije napušten i zamijenjen Bitcoinom, Bitcoin će napraviti tranziciju iz spremišta vrijednosti u tom društvu u opće prihvaćeno sredstvo razmjene. Daniel Krawicz stvorio je termin “hiperbitcoinizacija” da bi opisao ovaj proces.
Učestala pogrešna shvaćanja
Većina ovog članka usredotočila se na monetarnu prirodu Bitcoina. Sa tim temeljima možemo adresirati neke od najčešćih nerazumijevanja u Bitcoinu.
Bitcoin je balon (bubble)
Bitcoin, kao sva tržišna monetarna dobra, posjeduje monetarnu premiju. Ona često rezultira uobičajenom kritikom da je Bitcoin samo “balon.” No, sva monetarna dobra imaju monetarnu premiju. Naprotiv, ta monetarna premija (cijena viša od one koju diktira potražnja za dobrom kao korisnim) je upravo karakteristična za sve oblike novca. Drugim riječima, novac je uvijek i svuda balon. Paradoksalno, monetarno dobro je istovremeno balon i ispod vrijednosti ukoliko je u ranijim stadijima općeg prihvaćanja kao novac.
Bitcoin je previše volatilan
Volatilnost cijene Bitcoina je funkcija njegovog nedavnog nastanka. U prvih nekoliko godina svojeg postojanja, Bitcoin se ponašao kao mala dionica, i svaki veliki kupac - kao npr. braća Winklevoss - mogao je uzrokovati veliki skok u njegovoj cijeni. No, kako su se prihvaćenost i likvidnost povećavali kroz godine, volatilnost Bitcoina je srazmjerno smanjila. Kada Bitcoin postigne tržišnu kapitalizaciju (vrijednost) zlata, imat će sličnu volatilnost kao i zlato. Kako Bitcoin nastavi rasti, njegova volatilnost će se smanjiti do razine koja ga čini prikladnim za široko korištenje kao medij razmjene. Kao što je prethodno rečeno, monetizacija Bitcoina se odvija u seriji Gartner hype ciklusa. Volatilnost je najniža za vrijeme vrhunaca i dolina unutar ciklusa. Svaki hype ciklus ima nižu volatilnost od prethodnih, zato što je likvidnost tržišta veća.
Cijene transakcija su previsoke
Novija kritika Bitcoin mreže je ta da ju je povećanje cijena prijenosa bitcoina učinilo neprikladnom za sustav plaćanja. No, rast u cijenama transakcija je zdrav i očekivan. One su nužne za plaćanje bitcoin minera (rudara), koji osiguravaju mrežu validacijom transakcija. Rudare se plaća kroz cijene transakcija ili kroz blok-nagrade, koje su inflacijska subvencija od trane trenutnih vlasnika bitcoina.
S obzirom na Bitcoinovu fiksnu proizvodnju (monetarna politika koja ga čini idealnim za spremanje vrijednosti), blok-nagrade će s vremenom nestati i mrežu će se u konačnici morati osiguravati kroz cijene transakcija. Mreža sa “niskim” cijenama transakcija je mreža sa slabom sigurnosti i osjetljiva na vanjsku intervenciju i cenzuru. Oni koji hvale niske cijene Bitcoinovih alternative zapravo niti ne znajući opisuju slabosti tih takozvanih “alt-coina.”
Površan temelj kritika Bitcoinovih “visokih” cijena transakcija je uvjerenje da bi Bitcoin trebao biti prvo sustav plaćanja, i drugo spremište vrijednosti. Kao što smo vidjeli kroz povijest novca, ovo uvjerenje je naopako. Samo onda kada Bitcoin postane duboko ukorijenjeno spremište novca može biti prikladan kao sredstvo razmjene. Nadalje, kada oportunitetni trošak razmjene bitcoina dođe na razinu koja ga čini prikladnim sredstvom razmjene, većina trgovine neće se odvijati na samoj Bitcoin mreži, nego na mrežama “drugog sloja” (second layer) koje će imati niže cijene transakcija. Takve mreže, poput Lightning mreže, služe kao moderna verzija zadužnica koje su korištene za prijenos vlasničkih papira zlata u 19. stoljeću. Banke su koristile zadužnice zato što je prijenos samog metala bio daleko skuplji. Za razliku od takvih zadužnica, Lightning mreža će omogućavati nisku cijenu prijenosa bitcoina bez potrebe za povjerenjem prema trećoj strani, poput banaka. Razvoj Lightning mreže je tehnološka inovacija od izuzetne važnosti u povijesti Bitcoina, i njezina vrijednost će postati očita u narednim godinama, kako je sve više ljudi bude razvijalo i koristilo.
Konkurencija
Pošto je Bitcoin softverski protokol otvorenog tipa (open-source), oduvijek je bilo moguće kopirati softver i imitirati mrežu. Kroz godine nastajali su mnogi imitatori, od identičnih kopija, kao Litecoin, do kompleksnijih varijanti kao što je Ethereum, koje obećavaju arbitrarno kompleksne ugovorne mehanizme koristeći decentralizirani računalni sustav. Česta kritika Bitcoinu od strane ulagača je ta da on ne može zadržati svoju vrijednost kada je vrlo lako stvoriti konkurente koji mogu lako i brzo u sebi imati najnovije inovacije i softverske funkcionalnosti.
Greška u ovom argumentu leži u manju takozvanog “mrežnog efekta” (network effect), koji postoji u prvoj i dominantnoj tehnologiji u nekom području. Mrežni efekt - velika vrijednost korištenja Bitcoina samo zato što je već dominantan - je važno svojstvo samo po sebi. Za svaku tehnologiju koja posjeduje mrežni efekt, to je daleko najvažnije svojstvo koje može imati.
Za Bitcoin, mrežni efekt uključuje likvidnost njegovog tržišta, broj ljudi koji ga posjeduju, i zajednicu programera koji održavaju i unaprjeđuju njegov softver i svjesnost u javnosti. Veliki ulagači, uključujući države, će uvijek prvo tražiti najlikvidnije tržište, kako bi mogli ući i izaći iz tržišta brzo, i bez utjecanja na cijenu. Programeri će se pridružiti dominantnoj programerskoj zajednici sa najboljim talentom, i time pojačati samu zajednicu. Svjesnost o brendu sama sebe pojačava, pošto se nadobudni konkurenti Bitcoina uvijek spominju u kontekstu Bitcoina kao takvog.
Raskrižje na putu (fork)
Trend koji je postao popularan 2017. godine nije bio samo imitacija Bitcoinovog softvera, nego kopiranje potpune povijesti njegovih prošlih transakcija (cijeli blockchain). Kopiranjem Bitcoinovog blockchaina do određene točke/bloka i odvajanjem sljedećih blokova ka novoj mreži, u procesu znanom kao “forking” (odvajanje), Bitcoinovi konkurenti su uspjeli riješiti problem distribuiranja svojeg tokena velikom broju korisnika.
Najznačajniji takav fork dogodio se 1. 8. 2017. godine, kada je nova mreža nazvana Bitcoin Cash (Bcash) stvorena. Vlasnik N količine bitcoina prije 1.8.2017. bi onda posjedovao N bitcoina i N BCash tokena. Mala, ali vrlo glasna zajednica Bcash proponenata je neumorno pokušavala prisvojiti Bitcoinov brend i ime, imenujući svoju novu mrežu Bitcoin Cast i pokušavajući uvjeriti nove pridošlice u Bitcoin da je Bcash “pravi” Bitcoin. Ti pokušaji su većinom propali, i taj neuspjeh se vidi u tržišnim kapitalizacijama dviju mreža. No, za nove ulagače, i dalje postoji rizik da bi konkurent mogao kopirati Bitcoin i njegov blockchain i tako uspjeti u preuzimanju tržišne kapitalizacije, te postati de facto Bitcoin.
Moguće je uočiti važno pravilo gledajući velike forkove u prošlosti Bitcoin i Ethereum mreža. Većina tržišne kapitalizacije odvijat će se na mreži koja zadrži najviši stupanj talenta i aktivnosti u zajednici programera. Premda se na Bitcoin može gledati kao na nov i mlad novac, on je također računalna mreža koja počiva na softveru, kojeg se pak treba održavati i poboljšavati. Kupovina tokena na mreži koja ima malo neiskusnih programera bilo bi kao kupovati kopiju Microsoft Windowsa na kojoj rade lošiji programeri. Jasno je vidljivo iz povijesti forkova koji su se odvili 2017. godine da su najbolji računalni i kriptografski stručnjaci posvećeni razvoju originalnog Bitcoina, a ne nekoj od rastućeg broja imitacija koje su se izrodile iz njega.
Stvarni rizici
Premda su uobičajene kritike upućene Bitconu od strane medija i ekonomske profesije krive i bazirane na netočnom shvaćanju novca, postoje pravi i značajni rizici kod ulaganja u Bitcoin. Bilo bi mudro za novog Bitcoin ulagača da shvati ove rizike prije potencijalnog ulaganja.
Rizik protokola
Bitcoin protokol i kriptografski sastavni dijelovi na kojima je sagrađen potencijalno imaju dosad nepronađenu grešku u svom dizajnu, ili mogu postati nesigurni razvojem kvantnih računala. Ako se pronađe greška u protokolu, ili neka nova metoda računarstva učini mogućim probijanje kriptografskih temelja Bitcoina, vjera u Bitcoin biti će znatno narušena. Rizik protokola bio je najviši u ranim godinama razvoja Bitcoina, kada je još uvijek bilo nejasno, čak i iskusnim kriptografima, je li Satoshi Nakamoto zaista riješio problem bizantskih generala (Byzantine Generals’ Problem). Brige oko ozbiljnih grešaka u Bitcoin protokolu nestale su kroz godine, no uzevši u obzir njegovu tehnološku prirodu, rizik protokola će uvijek ostati u Bitcoinu, makar i kao izuzetak.
Propadanje mjenjačnica
Time što je decentraliziran, Bitcoin je pokazao značajnu otpornost, suočen sa brojnim pokušajima raznih vlada da ga reguliraju ili unište. No, mjenjačnice koje trguju bitcoinima za fiat valute su centralizirani entiteti i podložne regulacijama i zatvaranju. Bez mjenjačnica i volje bankara da s njima posluju, proces monetizacije Bitcoina bio bi ozbiljno usporen, ako ne i potpuno zaustavljen. Iako postoje alternativni izvori likvidnosti za Bitcoin, poput “over-the-counter” brokera i decentraliziranih tržišta za kupovinu i prodaju bitcoina, kritičan proces otkrivanja i definiranja cijene se odvija na najlikvidnijim mjenjačnicama, koje su sve centralizirane.
Jedan od načina za umanjivanje rizika gašenja mjenjačnica je geografska arbitraža. Binance, jedna od velikih mjenjačnica iz Kine, preselila se u Japan nakon što joj je kineska vlada zabranila operiranje u Kini. Vlade su također oprezne kako ne bi ugušile novu industriju koja je potencijalno značajna kao i internet, i time predale nevjerojatnu konkurentnu vrijednost drugim nacijama.
Samo kroz koordinirano globalno ukidanje Bitcoin mjenjačnica bi proces monetizacije mogao biti zaustavljen. Trenutno smo u utrci; Bitcoin raste i postaje sve rašireniji, i doći će do trenutka kada bi potpuno ukidanje mjenjačnica postalo politički neizvedivo - kao i gašenje interneta. Mogućnost takvog ukidanja je još uvijek realna, i valja je uzeti u obzir pri ulaganju u Bitcoin. Kao što je gore objašnjeno, suverene vlade se polako bude i uviđaju prijetnju koju predstavlja neovisna digitalna valuta otporna na cenzuru, za njihovu monetarnu politiku. Otvoreno je pitanje hoće li išta poduzeti da odgovore ovoj prijetnji prije nego Bitcoin postane toliko utvrđen i raširen da politička akcija postane nemoćna i ne-efektivna.
Zamjenjivost
Otvorena i transparentna priroda Bitcoin blockchaina omogućava državama da proglase specifične bitcoine “okaljanima” zbog njihovog korištenja u određenim aktivnostima. Premda Bitcoin, na protokolarnoj razini, ne diskriminira transakcije na ikoji način, “okaljani” bitcoini bi mogli postati bezvrijedni ako bi ih regulacije proglasile ilegalnima i neprihvatljivima za mjenjačnice ili trgovce. Bitcoin bi tada izgubio jedno od kritičnih svojstava monetarnog dobra: zamjenjivost.
Da bi se ovaj problem riješio i umanjio, biti će potrebna poboljšanja na razini protokola kako bi se poboljšala privatnost transakcija. Premda postoji napredak u ovom smjeru, prvi put primjenjen u digitalnim valutama kao što su Monero i Zcash, potrebno je napraviti značajne tehnološke kompromise između efikasnosti i kompleksnosti Bitcoina i njegove privatnosti. Pitanje ostaje otvoreno je li moguće dodati nova svojstva privatnosti na Bitcoin, na način koji neće kompromitirati njegovu korisnost kao novca.
Zaključak
Bitcoin je novonastali novac koji je u procesu transformacije iz sakupljačkog dobra u spremište vrijednosti. Kao neovisno monetarno dobro, moguće je da će u budućnosti postati globalan novac, slično kao zlato za vrijeme 19. stoljeća. Prihvaćanje Bitcoina kao globalnog novca je upravo taj optimističan scenarij za Bitcoin, kojeg je artikulirao Satoshi Nakamoto još 2010. godine u email razmjeni sa Mikeom Hearnom:
"Ako zamisliš da se koristi u nekom dijelu svjetske trgovine, i da će postojati samo 21 milijun bitcoina za cijeli svijet, vrijednost po jedinici će biti znatno veća".
Ovaj scenarij je još snažnije definirao briljantni kriptograf Hal Finney, koji je ujedno primio i prve bitcoine od Nakamotoa, ubrzo nakon najave prvog funkcionalnog Bitcoin softvera:
"Zamislimo da Bitcoin bude uspješan i postane dominantan sustav plaćanja diljem svijeta. U tom slučaju će ukupna vrijednost valute biti jednaka ukupnoj vrijednosti svog bogatstva svijeta. Današnje procjene ukupnog svjetskog bogatska kućanstava koje sam pronašao borave negdje između 100 i 300 trilijuna dolara. Sa 20 milijuna bitcoina, svaki bi onda vrijedio oko 10 milijuna dolara."
Čak i da Bitcoin ne postane u cijelost globalan novac, nego da se samo natječe sa zlatom kao neovisno spremište vrijednosti, i dalje je masivno podcijenjen. Mapiranje tržišne kapitalizacije postojeće količine izrudarenog zlata (oko 8 trilijuna dolara) na maksimalnu dostupnost Bitcoina od 21 milijun, daje vrijednost od otprilike 380,000 dolara po bitcoinu. Kao što smo vidjeli u prethodnom tekstu, svojstva koja omogućavaju monetarnom dobru da bude prikladno spremište vrijednosti, čine Bitcoin superiornijim zlatu u svakom pogledu osim trajanja povijesti. No, kako vrijeme prolazi i Lindy efekt postane jači, dosadašnja povijest će prestati biti prednost zlata. Samim time, nije nerazumno očekivati da će Bitcoin narasti do, a možda i preko, ukupne cijene zlata na tržištvu do 2030. Opaska ovoj tezi je činjenica da veliki postotak vrijednosti zlata dolazi od toga što ga centralne banke čuvaju kao spremište vrijednosti. Da bi Bitcoin došao do te razine, određena količina suverenih država će trebati sudjelovati. Hoće li zapadnjačke demokracije sudjelovati u vlasništvu Bitcoina je nepoznato. Vjerojatnije je, nažalost, da će prve nacije u Bitcoin tržištu biti sitne diktature i kleptokracije.
Ako niti jedna država ne bude sudjelovala u Bitcoin tržištu, optimistična teza i dalje postoji. Kao nevisno spremište vrijednosti u rukama individualnih i institucionalnih ulagača, Bitcoin je i dalje vrlo rano u svojoj “krivulji prihvaćenosti” (adoption curve); tzv. “rana većina” ulaze na tržište sada, dok će ostali ući tek nekoliko godina kasnije. Sa širim sudjelovanjem individualnih i institucionalnih ulagača, cijena po bitcoinu između 100,000 i 200,000 dolara je sasvim moguća.
Posjedovanje bitcoina je jedna od malobrojnih asimetričnih novčanih strategija dostupnih svakome na svijetu. Poput “call” opcija, negativan rizik ulagača je ograničen na 1x, dok potencijalna dobit i dalje iznosi 100x ili više. Bitcoin je prvi istinski globalan balon čija je veličina ograničena samo potražnjom i željom građana svijeta da zaštite svoju ušteđevinu od raznovrsnih ekonomskih malverzacija vlade. Bitcoin je ustao kao feniks iz pepela globalne financijske krize 2008. godine - katastrofe kojoj su prethodile odluke centralnih banaka poput američke Federalne rezerve (Federal Reserve).
Onkraj samo financijske teze za Bitcoin, njegov rast i uspjeh kao neovisno spremište vrijednosti imat će duboke geopolitičke posljedice. Globalna, ne-inflacijska valuta će prisiliti suverene države da promjene svoje primarne mehanizme financiranja od inflacije u izravno oporezivanje; koje je daleko manje politički popularno. Države će se smanjivati proporcionalno političkoj boli koju im nanese oporezivanje kao jedini način financiranja. Nadalje, globalna trgovina vršiti će se na način koji zadovoljava aspiraciju Charlesa de Gaullea, da nijedna nacija ne bi smjela imati privilegiju nad ikojom drugom:
"Smatramo da je potrebno da se uspostavi međunarodna trgovina, kao što je bio slučaj prije velikih nesreća koje su zadesile svijet, na neosporivoj monetarnoj bazi, koja ne nosi na sebi oznaku ijedne države."
Za 50 godina, ta monetarna baza biti će Bitcoin.
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@ 26769dac:498e333b
2025-05-28 18:56:30I am here too\ In the same space like you
In the same situation I'm in\ It's a matter of positioning
I cannot leave this place I'm in\ It was brought about\ By what's been happening
So please don't look at me\ For what I can or cannot do for you\ But look at what is happening for me\ And what is happening for you
Let's communicate\ Not orchestrate
Because there's something I wish to do\ And there's a place I wish to go to
And I'm sure that there is too\ In your heart a fire\ Known by only you
So let us listen, look and see\ For what's true for you\ And what's true for me
That we may act upon what's here\ In order for us both to take a step\ In the direction we wish to steer
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@ c1e6505c:02b3157e
2025-05-28 17:36:03I recently acquired a new lens:
1959 Leica Summaron F2.8 35mm LTM.
1959 Leica Summaron 35mm f2.8 LTM mounted on my Fujifilm Xpro2 with LTM adapter made by Urth.
Technically, it was a trade. I helped a fellow Bitcoiner set up their Sparrow Wallet, Nostr stuff, and troubleshoot a few wallet issues, and in return, they gave me the lens.
It all started at a local Bitcoin meetup I went to about a week ago - my second time attending. I recognized a few faces from last time, but also saw some new ones. These meetups are refreshing - it’s rare to speak a common language about something like Bitcoin or Nostr. Most people still don’t get it. But they will.
Technology moves forward. Networks grow. Old cells die off.
During the meetup, someone noticed I had my Leica M262 with me and struck up a conversation. Said they had some old Leica lenses and gear at home, and wanted to show me.
Bitcoin and photography in one conversation? I’m down.
A day or so later, they sent me a photo of one of the lenses: a vintage Summaron LTM 35mm f/2.8 from 1959. I’d never seen or heard of one before. They asked if I could help them set up Sparrow and a Bitcoin node. In exchange, they’d give me the lens. Sounded like a good deal to me. Helping plebs with their setups feels like a duty anyway. I said, of course.
They invited me over - a pretty trusting move, which I appreciated. They had some great Bitcoin memorabilia: Fred Krueger’s The Big Bitcoin Book (even if the guy’s turned full shitcoiner), and some FTX sunglasses from Bitcoin 2022. Probably future collector’s items, lol.
We headed upstairs to work on setting up Sparrow Wallet on their Windows machine. I verified the software download first (which you should always do), then helped them create a new wallet using their Ledger Flex. They also had an older Ledger Nano X. The Flex setup was easy, but the Nano X gave us trouble. It turns out Ledger allows multiple wallets for the same asset, which can show up differently depending on how they’re configured. In Sparrow, only one wallet showed—none of the others.
I believe it had to do with the derivation path from the Ledger. If anyone knows a fix, let me know.
After a few hours of troubleshooting, I told them I couldn’t really recommend Ledger. The UX is a mess. They’d already heard similar things from other plebs too.
I suggested switching to the Blockstream Jade. It’s a solid Bitcoin-only device from a trustworthy team. That’s what you want in a hardware wallet.
But back to the lens…
Since it’s an LTM (Leica Thread Mount), I couldn’t mount it directly on my M262. Luckily, I remembered I had an Urth adapter that fits my Fujifilm X-Pro2. I don’t use the X-Pro2 much these days—it’s mostly been sidelined by the M262 - but this was the perfect excuse to bring it out again.
To test the lens, I shot everything wide open at f/2.8. Nothing crazy fast, but it’s the best way to see a lens’s character. And this one definitely has character. There’s a subtle softness and a kind of motion blur effect around the edges when wide open. At first, I wasn’t sure how I felt about it, but the more I shot, the more I liked it. It reminds me of Winogrand’s work in Winogrand Color - those messy, shifting edges that make the frame feel alive. It also helps soften the digital-ness of the camera sensor.
The focus throw is short and snappy - much tighter than my Summicron V3 35mm f/2. I really like how fast it is to use. The closest focusing distance is about 3.5 feet, so it’s not ideal for close-ups. And with the Urth adapter on the X-Pro2, the focal length ends up closer to 40mm.
The only thing that threw me off was the infinity lock. When the focus hits infinity, it physically locks - you have to press a small tab to unlock it. I’ve seen others complain about it, so I guess it’s just one of those old lens quirks. I’m getting used to it.
All the photos here were taken around where I live in South Carolina. Some during bike rides to the river for a swim, others while walking through the marshlands.
I try to make work wherever I am. You should be able to.
It’s about the light, the rhythm, the play - and having the motivation to actually go out and shoot.
Lens rating: 7.9/10
I mainly shoot with a Leica M262, and edit in Lightroom + Dehancer
Use “PictureRoom” for 10% off Dehancer Film
If you’ve made it this far, thank you for taking the time to view my work - consider becoming a paid subscriber.
Also, please contact me if you would like to purchase any of my prints.
Follow me on Nostr:
npub1c8n9qhqzm2x3kzjm84kmdcvm96ezmn257r5xxphv3gsnjq4nz4lqelne96
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@ 005bc4de:ef11e1a2
2025-05-28 16:24:41Two days ago I put this out: https://peakd.com/hive-124838/@crrdlx/hostr-snaps-9i13ooa7ufp
Post: https://peakd.com/hive-124838/@crrdlx/hostr-snaps-9i13ooa7ufp
One of the comments said it "...looks like some sort of game as well." That was enough to tickle my curiosity and get me thinking. The round tomatoes and how they nestled into the grooves of the tiles reminded me of Chinese checkers. The grid brought Hex to mind (the game John Nash played) and I wondered if a square-grid version might be viable. A little searching revealed Hex is a "Connection game" and there are several. The one called Tak seemed really interesting and simple. I like interesting and I really like simple.
So, a square grid connection game wouldn't be new, however, you can't play Tak with tomatoes. Tak requires stacking "stones" or standing them on edge, that would be very, very tricky with tomatoes.
I looked around and happened to have some dried corn kernels and dry beans. I drew out a 5 x 5 grid of dots, lined up five corn kernels on one side in a "home row" and 5 beans on the other. We used to play a game where two sides of Army men met after a series of moves. In that game, we rolled dice to have a "combat" and see who would win the little battle. I wanted something like that in my game, some type of combat or conquest, somehow. So, I started messing around, moving kernels and beans, and totally just set out to make this game up on the fly. This is what I got...
Rules
The objective, like Hex or Tak, is to connect one side (your home row) to your opponent's side. The connection to the other side can be a straight line, or it CAN include a diagonal road. Any of the roads below would be a win for team bean (B).
- One side makes a move by sliding one corn/bean one spot forward.
- Then, take turns making moves.
- Movement can only be one spot forward/back or sideways (NSEW). You cannot move diagonally.
- Opponents CAN occupy, or "squat", on the same spot at once. If so, the spot is being "co-squatted" (they're like two people standing in the same sidewalk tile at the same time).
- However, while opponents occupy the same spot, a "combat" might ensue. A corn/bean can "attack" by moving yet another adjoining corn or bean onto the co-squatted spot. A conquest is made by outnumbering a spot 2-to-1. For instance, if a spot is being occupied by both a bean and corn, and then a second corn moves in, the two corns conquer the one bean. The bean is immediately removed. The bean player then places that conquered bean into any empty spot on his or her home row. That placement constitutes the bean player's turn. So, after the bean is placed on the home row, the corn player makes the next move.
- Play continues until someone completes a road from their home row across to their opponent's home row. (Again, a diagonal road is okay for the win.)
- The losing player got Succotashed.
Game name
As to the name, initially I wanted a tomato-ish name. But, I was using corn and beans. So, I'm naming this game "Succotash" after the corn, bean, and vegetable recipe. I considered calling it the "Texas Caviar Game" because it has tomatoes in it, but playing Succotash just sounds better. Plus, putting tomatoes in succotash sounds yummy.
Simple
A big goal here was to keep it simple. To that end, all that's needed is (a) a paper with a 5 x 5 grid drawn on it, and, (b) 5 pieces of something and 5 pieces of something else. Obviously I used corn kernels and beans, but it could easily be shells/legos, pennies/paperclips, nuts/stones, or whatever.
Initially, I had a "storehouse" of extra corn kernels and storehouse of extra beans (seen in the images). My thinking was that they would replace the corn or beans that get conquered by opponents. Upon playing the game, it was apparent that a storehouse is totally unnecessary. Once captured, the same corn/bean can just be the one that's placed back onto the home row. Five of each is fine.
Also, I'm sure the grid could easily be expanded to whatever size you wish. I played an opponent with the 5 x 5 grid, and that seemed a good size for a five minute or so game.
Why not sit down face-to-face with someone for a minute and give Succotash a try? If you do, I'd love to hear how it went.
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@ 99e7936f:d5d2197c
2025-05-28 14:55:40“Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben.”
Wo bleibt die Rettung?
Wenn man bei einem Notfall auf den Rettungswagen wartet, dann fühlen sich Minuten wie Stunden an. Die Nerven sind bis zum Anschlag gespannt, alle Sinne sind geschärft.
Die Natur hat das so eingerichtet, damit man aufmerksam und gut geschützt ist vor weiteren Verletzungen.
Bei Trauma ist das auch so, nur dass dieser Zustand gefühlt ein halbes Leben andauert. Das klingt brutal, ist aber in etwa so. Da ein menschlicher Körper das nicht gut aushalten kann, sendet er dem Gehirn die Information: “ Bitte mach etwas zur Entlastung, ich kann mit dem Dauerstress nicht gut umgehen. Ich habe ständig das Gefühl, dass etwas Schlimmes passiert und ich mich verteidigen muss.“ Das Gehirn überlegt sich dann eine Lösung, um auch selber endlich wieder Ruhe zu haben. In der Regel wird der traumatische Inhalt verdrängt, vergessen, abgewandelt, abgeschwächt oder als Schwarz-Weiß-Film wieder gegeben, also ohne Gefühl (re)präsentiert. Man kann dann von den traumatischen Erlebnissen erzählen, ohne ein einziges Gefühl zu haben. Das wirkt souverän, als habe man das Trauma verarbeitet, das Gegenteil ist der Fall. Manche Menschen reden sogar über Gefühle, empfinden diese aber nicht. Gefühle werden imitiert oder inszeniert. Wenn man selber fühlen kann, spürt man diesen feinen Unterschied als Zuhörer sofort. Jedenfalls ist alles das Traumafolge bzw. die Lösung, die uns das Gehirn nach Trauma anbietet. Entweder ist der ganze Inhalt samt Emotion weg, oder der Inhalt ist noch da, aber die Emotion dazu fehlt. Es gibt Menschen, die so tief traumatisiert sind, dass sie eine ganz andere Geschichte von sich selbst erzählen, als die, die eigentlich stattgefunden hat. Ich weiß, dass das gruselig klingt. Aber das ist eine Realität. Und es ist vermutlich gut so. Die Natur macht alles, um ein Menschenleben zu retten, und wenn es um den Preis des psychologischen Vergessens ist. Manche Erinnerungen sind offensichtlich nicht mit dem Leben vereinbar, deswegen werden sie für immer abgespalten. Mittlerweile habe ich persönlich viel Respekt vor Menschen, die sich an nichts mehr „erinnern“ können, da ich gelernt habe, dass sie am schlimmsten traumatisiert sind. Diese Einstellung hatte ich nicht immer.
Jedenfalls verhält es sich nach meiner Beobachtung und auch nach meinen eigenen Erfahrungen so, dass man sich ganz oft erst dann vollständig UND in Farbe an traumatische Erlebnisse erinnert, wenn die Zeit dafür reif ist. Man könnte auch sagen, wenn die Seele bereit ist, die verlorenen Seelenanteile wieder zuzulassen. Sie sind nie weg, denn eine unsichtbare Schnur verbindet uns immer mit dem, was passiert ist. Also, wenn dieser Moment, in dem Du Deine Seelenanteile wieder begrüßen darfst, kommt, dann ist das wie ein riesiges Geschenk, auch wenn sich das zu Beginn nicht so anfühlt. Es fühlt sich dann eher so an, wie wenn man auf den Rettungswagen wartet, aber es ist definitiv ein Geschenk, genau wie eine Geburt ein Geschenk ist. Und eine Geburt ist ja auch nicht immer leicht.
Also, je mehr Gefühl beim Erinnern von traumatischen Inhalten spürbar ist, desto besser kann Traumabearbeitung gelingen. (Heiße den Schmerz willkommen, wenn er in Dein Leben kommt.) Ich persönlich hatte lange Wehen, bevor mein Trauma dann schlagartig aktiviert wurde. Das war, bildlich gesprochen, eine Hausgeburt, die ich allein vollbracht habe, weil der Rettungswagen dermaßen Verspätung hatte. Aber das Kind hat sich dennoch gut entwickelt. Ich habe zuvor lange von meinem Trauma „nur“ geredet. Ich habe rationalisiert, wie man in der Fachsprache sagt. Mir war meine frühe Verletzung bewusst, aber ich hatte kein Gefühl zu dem, was ich erlebt hatte. Als das Gefühl da war, verstand ich, dass es sinnvoll war, es solange nicht gefühlt haben zu können, denn es war ein überwältigender Schmerz. Die Natur macht instinktiv ein gutes Timing für die Wiederkehr des Gefühls. Sie sucht sich eine Zeit im Leben aus, wo man einen guten Stand hat, stabil ist, eine Umgebung hat, die einen zumindest für eine Weile halten und auffangen kann. Denn die Natur möchte schließlich, dass man auch die Wiederkehr des Gefühls überlebt.
Genauso schmerzhaft wie der Verlust des Gefühls war, genauso schmerzhaft ist seine Wiederkehr.
Der Schmerz ist quasi der Erste und der Letzte. Er macht das Licht aus, und später macht er das Licht oder den Farbfilm wieder an. Der Schmerz ist viel besser als sein Ruf.
Ich erzähle hier lediglich meine Erfahrungen und Beobachtungen, auch wenn ich allgemein formuliere. Das kann sich bei anderen Menschen auch anders verhalten. Aber ich finde den Erfahrungsaustausch über dieses Thema wichtig, WEIL es unterschiedlich sein kann und jeder auf einem anderen Level von Traumabearbeitung steht. Ein Problem bei Traumabearbeitung ist, dass jeder ein anderes Trauma erlebt hat, dass jeder einen anderen Nährboden hatte, auf den das Trauma fiel, und dass es verschiedene Stadien gibt, bis es dann endlich und hoffentlich soweit ist, dass das Trauma wieder vollständig in die eigene Psyche integriert werden kann und man wieder „ganz“ bzw. „neu und etwas anders“ ist. Und meine Erfahrung ist, dass man auf das Tempo dieses Prozesses leider keinen Einfluss hat, auch wenn es hierzu, wie ich finde, viele falsche Verkehrsdurchsagen gibt. Die Natur ist da verschlossen wie eine Auster, sie lässt sich nicht ins Handwerk pfuschen. Als ich das verstand, hat sich mein Wunsch, Menschen zu helfen, schlagartig verändert. Ich verstand, dass ICH das nicht machen kann, dass die Natur das selber macht. Und das ist eine gute Nachricht, denn die Natur kann das am besten und ist ein super zuverlässiger Partner.
Wir brauchen keinen Rettungswagen. Der Schmerz ist die Rettung.
Das Thema „Trauma“ birgt so viel positiven Erkenntnisgewinn über das Wunder des Lebens.
Aber zurück zum Thema. Wenn man, so wie ich, ein halbes Leben in einem Schwarz-Weiß-Film verbracht hat, dann die Hausgeburt ohne Rettungswagen durchgestanden hat und das Kind irgendwann anfängt, neugierige Fragen zu stellen, dann ist man im Zugzwang. In dieser Situation bin ich heute. Deswegen schreibe ich. Mein neues ICH fragt mich immer öfter, warum ich so viele Dinge tue, die ich eigentlich gar nicht mehr tun will. Kinder fragen einen auch manchmal ganz unverblümt, ob man den Hansi denn lieb hat oder ob man gerne im Büro arbeitet. Wenn man den Hansi nicht lieb hat und nicht gerne im Büro arbeitet, dann muss man schlucken und eine kindgerechte Antwort formulieren. Genauso wenig wie Kinder als kompetenter 20-jähriger auf die Welt kommen, genau so wenig ist man nach geglückter Traumabearbeitung „geheilt“. Es wird nichts schlagartig besser. Das ist auch so eine falsche Verkehrsdurchsage. Man lebt ja noch im alten Leben, was nun Schritt für Schritt verändert werden darf. ABER man ist glückliche Mutter. Mutter sein, ist nicht immer leicht, habe ich mir sagen lassen. Mütter lieben ihre Kinder. Im Idealfall machen sie sich keine Gedanken darüber, was aus ihrem Kind mal werden soll. Sie vertrauen einfach darauf, DASS aus ihrem Kind ein glücklicher Mensch wird und buttern deshalb so viel Liebe in das Kind hinein, wie in den wenigen Jahren, die das Kind ein Kind ist, möglich ist. So ähnlich geht es mir heute auch. Ich bin stolz auf mein neues ICH und lobe es, so oft ich kann. Jede Mutter lobt ihre Butter. Das ist wichtig, denn das Leben bietet ständig Herausforderungen, an denen man bekanntlich wachsen darf. Ich gehe jeden Tag mit meinem „Kind“ spazieren, und wir sehen viel. Wir sehen andere Menschen mit Trauma, wir hören zu, welches Trauma der andere erlebt hat und auf welchem Level er ist. Wir hören das Gefühl heraus, welches mitschwingt. Wir sehen Menschen in ihrem Schwarz-Weiß-Film. Und wir sehen Menschen, die scheinbar mit jeder Situation souverän umgehen können. Am meisten interessieren „uns“ zur Zeit solche Menschen, die ehrlich zugeben, dass sie Wehen haben, dass der Schmerz sich in immer kürzeren Abständen meldet. (Die verlorenen Seelenanteile ziehen an der unsichtbaren Schnur.) Mit diesen Leuten kann ich im Moment am besten. Das hört sich komisch an. Aber ich will damit zum Ausdruck bringen, dass ich mit diesen Menschen mittlerweile am meisten resoniere. Sie sprechen meine Sprache. Sie empfinden Gefühle, und sprechen über diese. Das ist für mich die schönste Sprache.
Wer in diesen Tagen wahrhaftig Schmerz empfindet, und nicht nur als Lippenbekenntnis, sondern echten üblen Schmerz über die enttäuschte Liebe oder über die Verhältnisse in dieser Welt, der ist mir sympathisch, der ist mir nah. Denn ich weiß, dass so ein fühlender Mensch auch bald eine Niederkunft erleben wird, die ihn verändert, die ihn anders auf diese Welt schauen lässt.
Der Schmerz bringt uns die Verwandlung. Der Schmerz bringt die verlorenen Seelenanteile zurück. Der Schmerz ist der Hüter des Lebens. Der Schmerz bringt Dir Deine volle Sensibilität für andere Menschen zurück. Alles, was Du bei Dir nicht fühlen kannst, kannst Du bei anderen nicht fühlen. Der Schmerz beendet das. Er macht das Licht an und gibt dem Film wieder Farbe.
Heiße den Schmerz willkommen, wenn er in Dein Leben kommt. Tu das, nicht etwa weil Du gern leidest, nein tu das, weil Du Dich liebst, weil Du bewusst darauf achten möchtest, was Dir wirklich gut tut und Freude macht. Ein Mensch oder ein Job, der Dir Schmerz bereitet, den gilt es loszulassen. Und wenn Du Schmerz im Gesicht Deines Gegenübers siehst, dann frage Dich ehrlich, was Dein Anteil daran ist, dass der andere leidet. Wir sind nicht für jedes Leid auf dieser Welt verantwortlich, das möchte ich hier auch betonen. Und die Schuld-Nummer zieht bei mir schon lange nicht mehr. Aber ich nehme immer besser wahr, wenn mein eigenes Verhalten nicht angemessen, nicht authentisch ist, von überholten Glaubensmustern geprägt ist. Ich kann das erkennen und korrigieren. Ich kann das heute selber erkennen, weil der Schmerz mich das gelehrt hat, mich geöffnet hat. Der Schmerz lehrt uns ganz viel. Der Schmerz ist der Hüter des Lebens. Er trifft einen hart, macht aber weich.
Heiße den Schmerz willkommen, denn er ist die Rettung.
“Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben.”
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@ 8d34bd24:414be32b
2025-05-28 13:53:46These days it can feel like the whole world is out of control. Government officials lie and break the law. People are selfish, act emotionally rather than logically, and push ideologies that are illogical and contrary to reality. Society is divided into groups and people are judged, not for their own character, but based on which group they are placed into. There are wars and rumors of wars. There are worries of pandemics and economic disasters. Depression, psychosis, and despair is rampant even among the youngest among us.
Hope For Believers
As much as things seem to be out of control, they are not out of God’s control. This is what the Bible predicted. No matter how bad things get in the world, those who have put their faith in Jesus, do not need to feel despair.
Why are you in despair, O my soul?\ And why have you become disturbed within me?\ Hope in God, for I shall again praise Him\ For the help of His presence.\ O my God, my soul is in despair within me;\ Therefore I remember You from the land of the Jordan\ And the peaks of Hermon, from Mount Mizar. (Psalm 42:5-6)
When we start to feel despair overcoming us, we need to remember what God has done and what He has promised. We need to praise God for what He has done, what He has promised, and what He will bring to completion. Things may be hard now, but God is still in control, and we know how the story will end. God triumphs. Good is rewarded. Evil is destroyed. We can stand on the foundation of hope because we know the ending. Even though things may be out of our personal control, they are always under God’s control.
The more fiercely the storm rages, the more we need to rest in Jesus and the more we need to put our hope in Him.
O love the Lord, all you His godly ones!\ The Lord preserves the faithful\ And fully recompenses the proud doer.\ **Be strong and let your heart take courage,\ All you who hope in the Lord. (Psalm 31:23-24) {emphasis mine}
We can take courage because God always acts for our long term good. Every hardship we experience here on earth will be recognized as a blessing that grew our faith and prepared us for heaven and God’s presence in eternity.
For I know the plans that I have for you,’ declares the Lord, ‘plans for welfare and not for calamity to give you a future and a hope. (Jeremiah 29:11)
Even the worst things that happen to us, due to the sins of others, have a good purpose in our lives. God is working good through us. Our hope isn’t an empty hope. It isn’t a “I really hope this happens.” It is a “I can hope in the guaranteed promises of God.”
For we do not want you to be unaware, brethren, of our affliction which came to us in Asia, that we were burdened excessively, beyond our strength, so that we despaired even of life; indeed, we had the sentence of death within ourselves so that we would not trust in ourselves, but in God who raises the dead; who delivered us from so great a peril of death, and will deliver us, He on whom we have set our hope. And He will yet deliver us, (2 Corinthians 1:8-10) {emphasis mine}
We may experience situations so bad that they seem hopeless, but with God, nothing is hopeless. The God who raises the dead can raise us out of any situation. The God who spoke the universe into existence can deliver us by a word.
The God of the Bible knows all and loves us completely. He looks at our situation through the lens of eternity. What seems best in the moment is not necessarily what is best for our eternity. Many times He delivers us through hardship rather than out of it. We just need to trust Him and put our hope in Him because He is good.
In the same way God, desiring even more to show to the heirs of the promise the unchangeableness of His purpose, interposed with an oath, so that by two unchangeable things in which it is impossible for God to lie, we who have taken refuge would have strong encouragement to take hold of the hope set before us. This hope we have as an anchor of the soul, a hope both sure and steadfast and one which enters within the veil, where Jesus has entered as a forerunner for us, having become a high priest forever according to the order of Melchizedek. (Hebrews 6:17-20) {emphasis mine}
Read that statement again. “This hope we have as an anchor of the soul, a hope both sure and steadfast.” Are you trusting Jesus as the “anchor of your soul?” Is your hope just a wish or is it a “sure and steadfast” hope based on the promises of God that you know will 100% come true?
And not only this, but we also exult in our tribulations, knowing that tribulation brings about perseverance; and perseverance, proven character; and proven character, hope; and hope does not disappoint, because the love of God has been poured out within our hearts through the Holy Spirit who was given to us. (Romans 5:3-5)
Isn’t it ironic that we need hope to persevere through tribulations, but that persevering through tribulation gives us character and hope? Our faith, trust, and hope grow through hardship. When things are easy, we almost always fall back on trusting in our own power rather than relying on God’s power. If we have put our faith in Jesus, there is no situation in which we should lose hope.
Now may the God of hope fill you with all joy and peace in believing, so that you will abound in hope by the power of the Holy Spirit. (Romans 15:13)
Is your joy and peace based on your circumstances or have you learned to have hope in God so you can experience joy and peace even in the trials?
Many people equate joy and happiness, but I think there is a key distinction. Happiness is a pleasant feeling that comes from pleasant circumstances. Joy is a similar feeling to happiness, but it comes from knowing God and His love. It is not tied to circumstances. When we have truly put our hope in God we can still have joy in and despite the most horrific circumstances.
Blessed be the God and Father of our Lord Jesus Christ, who according to His great mercy has caused us to be born again to a living hope through the resurrection of Jesus Christ from the dead, to obtain an inheritance which is imperishable and undefiled and will not fade away, reserved in heaven for you, (1 Peter 1:3-4) {emphasis mine}
Just as Jesus told the Samaritan woman at the well that He provides living water that wells up inside, so that she need never thirst, in the same way believers have a living hope that wells up in times of need. Our hope is in the Creator of the universe and Savior of the world. No problem is too big for Him. No situation is a surprise to Him. No enemy is too powerful for Him. All of our problems are already solved. We just haven’t necessarily seen the solution yet.
My soul, wait in silence for God only,\ For my hope is from Him.\ He only is my rock and my salvation,\ My stronghold; I shall not be shaken.\ On God my salvation and my glory rest;\ The rock of my strength, my refuge is in God. (Psalm 62:5-7)
Despair For Unbelievers
Although believers never have reason to despair, the same is not true for those who have rejected the Savior, Jesus Christ. In these perilous times, they have a real reason for dread and despair.
Moreover, the Lord will scatter you among all peoples, from one end of the earth to the other end of the earth; and there you shall serve other gods, wood and stone, which you or your fathers have not known. Among those nations you shall find no rest, and there will be no resting place for the sole of your foot; but there the Lord will give you a trembling heart, failing of eyes, and despair of soul. So your life shall hang in doubt before you; and you will be in dread night and day, and shall have no assurance of your life. (Deuteronomy 64-66)
Those who reject the atoning sacrifice of Jesus do not get His protection. They do not get His help. They cannot rest in hope in Him.
Of course, the good news is that they can chose to turn their hearts to Him, confess their sins, and trust in Him up until their moment of death. Sadly many will continue to put off faith until it is too late. Many will choose evil over good and license over submission until God gives them over to their lusts.
And just as they did not see fit to acknowledge God any longer, God gave them over to a depraved mind, to do those things which are not proper, being filled with all unrighteousness, wickedness, greed, evil; full of envy, murder, strife, deceit, malice; they are gossips, slanderers, haters of God, insolent, arrogant, boastful, inventors of evil, disobedient to parents, without understanding, untrustworthy, unloving, unmerciful; and although they know the ordinance of God, that those who practice such things are worthy of death, they not only do the same, but also give hearty approval to those who practice them. (Romans 1:28-32)
If any of you have not yet put your trust in Jesus as Savior and Lord, do not wait. Turn away from evil. Submit to the will of Jesus. Trust Him to take away your sins and cover you with His righteousness.
If any of you know people who are in despair, share the gospel with them. Tell them about the greatness of God. Show them the hope that is within you.
Can Believers Despair?
Are there believers who despair? Yes. Should believers ever despair? Definitely not!
But we have this treasure in earthen vessels, so that the surpassing greatness of the power will be of God and not from ourselves; we are afflicted in every way, but not crushed; perplexed, but not despairing; persecuted, but not forsaken; struck down, but not destroyed; always carrying about in the body the dying of Jesus, so that the life of Jesus also may be manifested in our body. (2 Corinthians 4:7-10)
Jesus is always with believers in all situations guiding and protecting us. Those difficult situations that happen are for our good, even when we can’t see how it could be for good.
Job had more reasons to despair than almost anyone, yet he trusted in God. He didn’t know why he was being put through such loss, but his loss increased his faith in God and was a great example to people throughout history. I also love this cry of his heart.
“Oh that my words were written!\ Oh that they were inscribed in a book!” (Job 19:23)
He may or may not have seen even the partial fulfillment of this cry, but His words are written in the book of Job, in the Holy Scriptures read by Jews and Christians throughout the world and throughout history. Job’s first response to loss was an example to us all. After losing all ten children and all of his wealth, this was his response.
Then Job arose and tore his robe and shaved his head, and he fell to the ground and worshiped. (Job 1:20)
Yes, it is true that he had moments of despair where he cursed his birth, but he then returned to God in faith and hope. After a brief rebuke from God, Job submitted to God’s will.
“Behold, I am insignificant; what can I reply to You?\ I lay my hand on my mouth.\ Once I have spoken, and I will not answer;\ Even twice, and I will add nothing more.” (Job 40:4-5)
After his second rebuke from God, he fully submitted.
Then Job answered the Lord and said,
“I know that You can do all things,\ And that no purpose of Yours can be thwarted.\ ‘Who is this that hides counsel without knowledge?’\ *Therefore I have declared that which I did not understand,\ Things too wonderful for me, which I did not know.\ ‘Hear, now, and I will speak;\ I will ask You, and You instruct me*.’\ I have heard of You by the hearing of the ear;\ But now my eye sees You;\ Therefore I retract,\ And I repent in dust and ashes**.” (Job 42:1-6) {emphasis mine}
Job admitted that he did not understand what God was doing, but that God was right; God was good; and God was Lord. Job was able to have hope knowing that God was in control and working for good.
In the case of Job, he was later blessed with more kids, more wealth, and more respect than he had in the beginning. We won’t all see our blessings here on earth, but all believers will receive blessings from their trials.
May our glorious Savior and God fill you with faith and hope in God, His goodness, His power, and His plan. May we all submit to His good will even when we do not understand and even when every part of our earthly body is crying, “stop!” May God fill you with knowledge of Him, faith in Him, and hope in Him.
Trust Jesus
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@ 812cff5a:5c40aeeb
2025-05-28 12:56:32NIP-01 — الشكل الأساسي للأحداث في نُستر
رقم التعريف (NIP): 01
العنوان: الشكل الأساسي للأحداث
الحالة: نهائي
المؤلف: fiatjaf
التاريخ: 2020-12-10
الملخص
هذا المستند يعرّف الشكل القياسي لأي "حدث" يتم تداوله ضمن شبكة نُستر (Nostr).
الهدف من هذا التنسيق هو ضمان إمكانية معالجة وتفسير الأحداث من قبل جميع العملاء والخوادم بطريقة موحّدة.
هيكل الحدث
كل حدث عبارة عن كائن يحتوي على الحقول التالية:
{ "id": <معرّف فريد>, "pubkey": <مفتاح عام للمرسل>, "created_at": <تاريخ الإنشاء كرقم UNIX timestamp>, "kind": <نوع الحدث>, "tags": [<قائمة من الوسوم>], "content": <المحتوى>, "sig": <التوقيع الرقمي> }
شرح الحقول
- id: سلسلة نصية تمثل SHA-256 لمحتوى الحدث.
- pubkey: المفتاح العام للمستخدم (عادةً 32 بايت بصيغة hex).
- created_at: الطابع الزمني للإنشاء (Unix timestamp).
- kind: رقم يحدد نوع الحدث (مثلاً: منشور، متابعة، إعادة نشر).
- tags: قائمة من الوسوم المرتبطة بالحدث (مثلاً: إشارة إلى مستخدم أو حدث).
- content: المحتوى الأساسي للحدث (نص أو بيانات).
- sig: التوقيع الرقمي الذي يثبت أن المرسل هو صاحب المحتوى.
كيفية توليد معرف الحدث
id
يتم توليد المعرّف عبر أخذ تمثيل JSON للحدث (بدون الحقول
id
وsig
) ثم حساب التجزئة باستخدام SHA-256.
توقيع الحدث
يُوقّع المستخدم الحدث باستخدام مفتاحه الخاص.
هذا التوقيع الرقمي يسمح لأي شخص بالتحقق من صحة الحدث باستخدام المفتاح العام.
أنواع الأحداث (kind)
0
: ملف التعريف (الاسم، الصورة، النبذة).1
: منشور عام نصي.2
: إعادة نشر.3
: قائمة المتابَعين.4
: رسالة مشفّرة خاصة.- أنواع أخرى يمكن إضافتها لاحقًا.
الوسوم (Tags)
الوسوم عبارة عن قوائم (arrays) داخل الحدث لتوفير معلومات إضافية.
مثال:["e", "<معرّف الحدث>"] ["p", "<مفتاح عام لمستخدم>"]
"e"
تشير إلى حدث."p"
تشير إلى مستخدم.
الخلاصة
NIP-01 هو الأساس الهيكلي لتبادل الأحداث عبر نُستر.
من خلال اتباع هذا الشكل، يمكن لجميع التطبيقات والخوادم العمل معاً بسلاسة، وضمان أمن وموثوقية كل حدث. -
@ 5f078e90:b2bacaa3
2025-05-28 12:00:23Sylvi the seahorse
In the coral haven of Azure Bay, a seahorse named Sylvi danced with the tides. Her tail curled around a swaying frond as she watched fish dart by. One dawn, a lost pearl rolled into her nook. Sylvi, curious, nudged it along the reef, meeting crabs and eels who shared tales of the deep. By dusk, she found its oyster home. The pearl gleamed thanks, and Sylvi twirled home, her heart light as foam.
Ignore this test. This was in bold originally.
(380 chars, plain text after Markdown stripping, this was in italics originally)
Originally written on habla.news (on Nostr)
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@ a29cfc65:484fac9c
2025-05-28 10:30:32Deutschland ist eines der wenigen Länder mit einer gesetzlich verankerten ausnahmslosen Schulbesuchspflicht. Mit den Schulschließungen in der Corona-Zeit wurde das Gesetz jedoch faktisch plötzlich außer Kraft gesetzt. Alle mussten zu Hause lernen. Als die Schulen danach wieder offen waren, wurden die Kinder mit Maskenpflicht, Tests und Impfdruck gequält. Nicht selten traten bei den Schülern Krankheiten und psychische Störungen auf. Nicht wenige Eltern suchten im Gespräch mit dem Lehrerkollegium nach Lösungen für ihre Kinder. In den meisten Fällen war das nicht möglich. Die Lehrer waren auf die neue Ideologie und die Durchsetzung der Maßnahmen eingeschworen und hatten Angst. Einige Eltern haben ihre Kinder dann in eigener Verantwortung aus der Schule genommen und zu Hause selbst unterrichtet. An manchen Orten fanden sich Gemeinschaften, wo die Kinder in Gruppen lernten. Während viele Lerngemeinschaften nicht mehr existieren, hat die Familie von Katharina den Unterricht für ihre drei Kinder in Eigenregie etabliert. Inzwischen haben sie dafür sogar „den Segen“ von Familiengericht und Jugendamt.
Katharina und Johannes leben mit ihren drei Wunschkindern Aurelius (15), Benjamin (14) und Friedrich (10) in einem Vorort von Leipzig. Die Familie wohnte früher in der Stadt. In der Corona-Zeit haben sie sich mit dem Physiotherapie- & Seminarzentrum Curasanus eine Existenz auf dem Land aufgebaut und begehen diesen Sommer ihr 20-jähriges Praxis-Jubiläum. Katharina hat ihre Arbeit als Physiotherapeutin weitgehend aufgegeben, um sich als Mama und Lernbegleiterin ihren Kindern widmen zu können. Daneben bietet sie Vorträge und Workshops an, übernimmt einen großen Teil der Praxis-Organisation und ist Manager, Rezeptionistin und Vertriebler der eigenen Firma. Wir besuchten einen ihrer Lachyoga-Kurse. Dabei erlebten wir ihr Zusammenspiel mit den drei Kindern. Anschließend stellten wir Katharina unsere Fragen zum Freilernen.
Im unmittelbaren Umfeld wird die Familie bestaunt und geachtet. Sie haben sich bewusst für das Freilernen entschieden. Die Kinder wurden ohne Test nicht mehr in die Schule gelassen. Auch andere Zwangsmaßnahmen wie die Maske wollten die Eltern den Kindern ersparen. Besonders Benjamin hatte traumatische Erlebnisse. Seine Lehrerin schmiss mit dem Schlüssel nach den Schülern und wandte andere schwarze Pädagogik an. Er ging ständig mit Bauchschmerzen ins Bett. Ein weiterer Punkt ist die Masernimpfung. Die Kinder könnten zwar zur Schule gehen, aber die Eltern werden mit rechtlichen Maßnahmen und Zwangszahlungen belegt. Da Katharina in ihrer Praxis viele Erkrankungen als Folge der Masernimpfung beobachten konnte, lehnt sie die Pflichtimpfung ab. Die Eltern haben kein Vertrauen mehr in die staatliche Schulerziehung mit all dem Zwang und den Erpressungen. Als die Familie den Entschluss gefasst hatte, die Kinder nicht mehr in die Schule zu schicken, haben sie ihre Praxis vorübergehend geschlossen, ihr Haus verkauft und sind auf Reisen gegangen. Die beiden großen Kinder wurden von der Schule abgemeldet. Nach der Rückkehr haben sie dann mit einem neuen Leben auf dem Land begonnen.
Lernen ohne Schule: Wie geht das?
„Wissen ist Macht und eine Holschuld“, sagt uns Katharina. Das ist ihr Motto und motiviert auch die Kinder. Mit dem Unterricht zu Hause macht die Familie ihre eigene Studie und zeigt, dass Lernen auch anders geht als in der Schule. Die Eltern können viel besser auf jedes einzelne Kind eingehen. Johannes arbeitete früher als Straßenbauer. Er unterstützt die Jungs vor allem in Mathematik, Geometrie und Physik sowie bei handwerklichen Fertigkeiten. Katharinas Stärken liegen in Deutsch, Sprachen und Organisation. Unter den Patienten ihrer Praxis gibt es Lehrer, die ihnen helfen. Weitere Unterstützung kommt von Freunden und Bekannten. Bei bestimmten Projekten treffen sie auf andere Freilernerkinder. „Das Netzwerk wird immer größer, es wird immer schöner und interessanter“, sagt Katharina. Man geht mit vielen anderen einen gemeinsamen Weg, verlässt dabei eingetretene Pfade und erkundet neue Themenfelder wie Mediengestaltung, freie Energie, Elektrotherapie, meditatives und Improvisations-Zeichnen. „Ich sprudele vor Ideen. Sie kommen in mein Feld, und dann mache ich was draus“, sagt Katharina. Die Jungs sind in Wurzen im Ringelnatz-Literaturkreis. Dort schreiben sie Drehbuchgeschichten und haben einen Film produziert. Sie suchen sich Projekte oder kreieren neue, wie mit dem Planetarium Eilenburg. Diese Zusammenarbeit hat sich sehr gut entwickelt. Dort lernen 4- bis 15-Jährige zusammen. Die drei Jungs spielen Klavier. Erdkunde und Geschichte erleben die Kinder auch dadurch, dass die Familie Hauptstädte oder die bosnischen Pyramiden selbst erkundet. Dabei erweist es sich als Vorteil, nicht auf die Ferienzeiten angewiesen zu sein.
Als Physiotherapeutin ist Katharina bewusst, dass man neue Lernstrategien entwickeln muss. Die Kinder lernen unterschiedlich. Jedes Kind hat seinen eigenen Charakter. Aurelius benötigt eher eine 1:1-Betreuung. Darauf kann Katharina viel individueller eingehen als die staatliche Schule. Es ist aber auch aufwendiger und anstrengender. Besonderen Wert legt sie darauf, dass rechte und linke Gehirnhälfte gleichmäßig beansprucht werden. Lernphasen werden immer wieder mit Entspannungs- oder Bewegungsphasen kombiniert. Sie weiß, dass den Kindern zuerst die Grundlagen des Lesens, Rechnens und Schreibens vermittelt werden müssen. Dann sind sie in der Lage, sich alles Weitere selbst anzueignen – Unterstützung vorausgesetzt. „Besonders das Schreiben mit der eigenen Hand ist wichtig für die Vernetzung der beiden Gehirnhälften“, sagt Katharina. Dafür nehmen sich die Eltern Zeit. Die Kinder führen Tagebuch. Außerdem halten es die Eltern für wichtig, den Kindern Werte und Tugenden wie Dankbarkeit, Verlässlichkeit, Beharrlichkeit, Aufrichtigkeit, Ehrlichkeit und die zehn Gebote zu vermitteln. Katharina und Johannes sind beide religiös begleitet aufgewachsen. Heute sehen sie die Kirche als Institution kritisch. Angebunden an die Schöpfung und im Gottvertrauen erschaffen und schöpfen sie Leben und Lebensraum aus eigener Kraft – so erklärt es uns Katharina.
Ein weiteres Thema sind die Funktionen des Körpers und wie sich die Kinder gesund erhalten können. Vieles lernen sie dabei in der Physiotherapiepraxis. Die Familie hat das Privileg, in ihrem eigenen Biorhythmus leben zu können. „Das macht sehr viel aus – wir sind alle gesund“, sagt Katharina. Der Lern- und Arbeitstag beginnt nicht vor 9 Uhr und hat eine eigene Struktur. Im Tagesablauf sind feste Verantwortlichkeiten integriert. So wechseln sich die Kinder aller drei Tage mit Tischdecken, Staubsaugen und Geschirrspüler ab. Das hilft ihnen, sich selbst zu organisieren. Das geht nicht immer reibungslos vonstatten. Wenn das Lernpensum beizeiten abgearbeitet wurde, helfen die Kinder im Haushalt oder Garten oder gehen ihrem Bewegungsdrang auf andere Weise nach. Die Eltern sind am Abend noch länger aktiv, denn die Praxis erfordert noch die eine oder andere bürokratische Pflicht. Die Familie ist sehr naturverbunden. Sie gehen viel in den Wald und in den Garten. Sie bauen selbst Gemüse und Obst an. Dabei können die Kinder zum Beispiel Erfahrungen mit Permakultur und natürlicher Düngung sammeln. Die Familie achtet auf die Ernährung, schließlich ist Katharina seit fast 25 Jahren Ernährungsberaterin. Was sie nicht selbst anbauen, wird beim Bauern des Vertrauens eingekauft. Die Jungs können selbst kochen und backen. Die Schädlichkeit von Zucker ist den Kindern schon bewusst geworden, ohne gänzlich auf Schokolade verzichten zu müssen. Medikamente gibt es im Haushalt nicht. Sie kennen sich sehr gut mit den Heilmitteln aus der Natur aus und können so ihre Selbstheilungskräfte aktivieren. Sie haben keinen Hausarzt. Natürlich hat keines der Kinder ein Handy. Bisher haben sie noch kein Verlangen danach. Die Eltern halten es für wichtig, dass die Kinder erst sicher bei Selbstorganisation und Tagesstruktur sind, bevor sie ein Handy bekommen. Katharina weist darauf hin, dass beispielsweise WhatsApp erst ab 16 Jahren zugelassen ist, und fragt sich, ob das andere Eltern wissen.
Gesetze auf Augenhöhe auslegen
Den Behörden blieben die Freilerner nicht verborgen. Sie wurden aktiv und schalteten das Familiengericht ein. Die Familie hatte keinen Anwalt und keine Rechtsschutzversicherung. Katharina erzählt uns, dass sie schließlich auf „Hilfe von oben“ gehofft habe. Irgendwer hat sie anscheinend erhört, denn sie bekamen „einen Engel“ als Verfahrensbeistand. Die Behörden waren sehr zugänglich. In den Gesprächen gab man zu, mit der Schulsituation ebenfalls nicht zufrieden zu sein. „Wir wollen so wie ihr, dass sich etwas verändert. Wir sind an Eurer Seite.“ Die Gespräche mit dem Jugendamt und der Richterin vom Familiengericht Grimma waren immer auf Augenhöhe. Schließlich legte man der Familie keine Steine in den Weg. Damit kann Katharina ihr Konzept nach außen leben und andere inspirieren. Ihre Schlussfolgerung: Eltern müssen sich ihrer Stärken bewusst werden und aus ihrer Angst herauskommen. Das Konzept muss aber zur Familie passen, denn jede Familie ist anders.
Die Basis für freies Lernen ist das Vertrauen der Eltern in ihre Kinder. Denn Kinder sind von Natur aus wissbegierig und wollen lernen. Katharina hat viel von Bertrand Stern und von Riccardo Leppe gelernt. Beiden wurde von ihren Eltern das Lernen ohne Schulbesuch ermöglicht. Mit Bertrand Stern hat Katharina Kontakt. Er wird im November am Buß- und Bettag eine kleine Fortbildung im Therapie- und Seminarzentrum geben. Für den Vorabend ist ein Vortrag geplant. Katharina zitiert Riccardo Leppe: „Es ändert sich nur was, wenn man es selbst tut.“ Er sei sich sicher, dass der Fortschritt beim Freilernen inzwischen so weit ist, dass „die Paste nicht wieder zurück in die Tube geht“.
Der Übergang zur Berufsausbildung
Die ersten Freilernerkinder kommen jetzt in das Alter, in dem sie eine Berufsausbildung beginnen können. Aurelius und Benjamin, die beiden „Großen“, machen seit Anfang des Jahres schon erste Praktika bei ortsansässigen Handwerksbetrieben. Beide Seiten sind sehr zufrieden. Durch die Praktika, die länger dauern als im schulischen Lehrplan vorgesehen, können sich die Kinder ausprobieren. Katharina findet es interessant miterleben zu dürfen, wie auf ihre Kinder reagiert wird. Bringen sie etwas mit, das die anderen nicht haben? Denken sie anders mit? Benjamin bekam schon ein Angebot, in einem Metallbau-Betrieb stundenweise mitzuarbeiten. In den Betrieben weiß man, dass die Abschlüsse der staatlichen Schulen größtenteils das Papier nicht wert sind, auf dem sie stehen. Viele verlassen die Schule und können kaum lesen und schreiben, von Selbstorganisation ganz zu schweigen. Ein Freilerner kann eine staatliche Externen-Prüfung ablegen, um einen Haupt- oder Realschulabschluss zu erwerben. Katharina: „Für eine Ausbildung bei einem privaten Unternehmer braucht man das nicht, allein der Unternehmer entscheidet über die Aufnahme des Auszubildenden“. Außerdem stehen den jungen Leuten Privatschulen oder der zweite Bildungsweg zur Verfügung. Wenn man einen praktischen Beruf ergreift, ist es immer noch möglich, sich bis zur Hochschulreife weiterzubilden. Nach mehrjährigen Tätigkeiten kann man bei den Kammern von Industrie, Handel und Handwerk (IHK und HWK) eine Abschlussprüfung ablegen, mit der man zum Studium zugelassen werden kann. Oder man geht gleich den Weg in die Selbstständigkeit.
Frei lernen weitergedacht
Während der Coronazeit haben sich in Sachsen und speziell um Leipzig herum kleine Freilernergruppen gefunden. Die Gruppen werden aktuell zusammengeführt, um zum Beispiel gemeinsam den Mathematikunterricht zu gestalten. Besonders um Dresden herum ist die Szene noch stärker ausgeprägt. Außerdem gibt es seit mehr als 20 Jahren den Bundesverband Natürlich Lernen (BVNL). Er bietet Beratung und zentrale Veranstaltungen an.
Der Wunsch nach dem freien Lernen ohne Schulzwang ist groß. Doch die meisten Eltern wollen ihre Kinder dafür irgendwo abgeben und nicht selbst unterrichten. Katharinas größter Wunsch ist es, drei bis fünf Elternpaare zu finden, die sich in die Betreuung und Unterrichtung ihrer Kinder teilen. Das größte Hindernis dafür sieht sie in den Eltern selbst. Durch ungelöste transgenerative Konflikte und unverarbeitete Familientraumata kommen sie noch nicht in ihre eigene Kraft für ein selbstbestimmtes Leben. Viele wagen es noch nicht, ihre Erwerbstätigkeit zugunsten der Kinder einzuschränken. Katharina sieht es als große Aufgabe für sich und ihre Familie, mit dem Freilernen das Gemeinschaftsbewusstsein und gute Konfliktlösungsstrategien zu entwickeln. Sie denkt dabei bereits an ihre Enkel. Aber sie weiß auch, dass die Eltern ein sehr hohes Maß an Eigeninitiative, Motivation und Selbstdisziplin aufbringen müssen. Sie würde Eltern, die sich das noch nicht zutrauen, als Traumabegleiterin zur Verfügung stehen, für einen angemessenen Energieausgleich. Diese gegenseitige Unterstützung käme Kindern und Eltern zugute. Ebenso hält sie die Idee der Mehrgenerationenerziehung für wichtig. Dabei profitieren nicht nur die Kinder. Die Erfahrungen der älteren Menschen gehen nicht verloren, sondern werden an die jüngeren Generationen weitergegeben und machen sie resilienter. Das hilft den Eltern, ihrer Erwerbsarbeit nachzugehen und Familientraumata zu bewältigen.
Katharina ist eine starke Frau und sprüht nur so vor Energie. Selbst als wir nach 21 Uhr das Therapiezentrum verlassen, sind ihr die Anstrengungen des Tages nicht anzumerken. Sie wird nicht müde beim Sprechen. Für Fragen zum Thema Freilernen kann man sich an sie wenden.
Der Text wurde zuerst am 27.05.2025 im Blog „Freie Akademie für Medien und Journalismus“ veröffentlicht (https://www.freie-medienakademie.de/medien-plus/lernen-neu-gemacht)
Bildquelle: Salah Darwish, unsplash.com
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@ 005bc4de:ef11e1a2
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@ 58537364:705b4b85
2025-05-28 08:25:55ถ้าอยากแล้วไม่หลง มันก็อยากด้วยปัญญา ความอยากอย่างนี้ท่านเรียกว่า เป็นบารมีของตน แต่ไม่ใช่ทุกคนนะที่มีปัญญา
บางคนไม่อยากจะให้มันอยาก เพราะเข้าใจว่า การมาปฏิบัติก็เพื่อระงับความอยาก ความจริงน่ะ ถ้าหากว่าไม่มีความอยาก ก็ไม่มีข้อปฏิบัติ ไม่รู้ว่าจะทำอะไร ลองพิจารณาดูก็ได้
ทุกคน แม้องค์พระพุทธเจ้าของเราก็ตาม ที่ท่านออกมาปฏิบัติ ก็เพื่อจะให้บรรเทากิเลสทั้งหลายนั้น
แต่ว่ามันต้องอยากทำ อยากปฏิบัติ อยากให้มันสงบ และก็ไม่อยากให้มันวุ่นวาย ทั้งสองอย่างนี้ มันเป็นอุปสรรคทั้งนั้น ถ้าเราไม่มีปัญญา ไม่มีความฉลาดในการกระทำอย่างนั้น เพราะว่ามันปนกันอยู่ อยากทั้งสองอย่างนี้มันมีราคาเท่า ๆ กัน
อยากจะพ้นทุกข์มันเป็นกิเลส สำหรับคนไม่มีปัญญา อยากด้วยความโง่ ไม่อยากมันก็เป็นกิเลส เพราะไม่อยากอันนั้นมันประกอบด้วยความโง่เหมือนกัน คือทั้งอยาก ไม่อยาก ปัญญาก็ไม่มี ทั้งสองอย่างนี้ มันเป็นกามสุขัลลิกานุโยโค กับอัตตกิลมถานุโยโค ซึ่งพระพุทธองค์ของเรา ขณะที่พระองค์กำลังทรงปฏิบัติอยู่นั้น ท่านก็หลงใหลในอย่างนี้ ไม่รู้ว่าจะทำอย่างไร ท่านหาอุบายหลายประการ กว่าจะพบของสองสิ่งนี้
ทุกวันนี้เราทั้งหลายก็เหมือนกัน ทุกสิ่งทั้งสองอย่างนี้มันกวนอยู่ เราจึงเข้าสู่ทางไม่ได้ก็เพราะอันนี้ ความเป็นจริงนี้ทุกคนที่มาปฏิบัติ ก็เป็นปุถุชนมาทั้งนั้น ปุถุชนก็เต็มไปด้วยความอยาก ความอยากที่ไม่มีปัญญา อยากด้วยความหลง ไม่อยากมันก็มีโทษเหมือนกัน “ไม่อยาก” มันก็เป็นตัณหา “อยาก” มันก็เป็นตัณหาอีกเหมือนกัน
ทีนี้ นักปฏิบัติยังไม่รู้เรื่องว่า จะเอายังไงกัน เดินไปข้างหน้าก็ไม่ถูก เดินกลับไปข้างหลังก็ไม่ถูก จะหยุดก็หยุดไม่ได้เพราะมันยังอยากอยู่ มันยังหลงอยู่ มีแต่ความอยาก แต่ปัญญาไม่มี มันอยากด้วยความหลง มันก็เป็นตัณหา ถึงแม้ไม่อยาก มันก็เป็นความหลง มันก็เป็นตัณหาเหมือนกันเพราะอะไร? เพราะมันขาดปัญญา
ความเป็นจริงนั้น ธรรมะมันอยู่ตรงนั้นแหละ ตรงความอยากกับความไม่อยากนั่นแหละ แต่เราไม่มีปัญญา ก็พยายามไม่ให้อยากบ้าง เดี๋ยวก็อยากบ้าง อยากให้เป็นอย่างนั้น ไม่อยากให้เป็นอย่างนี้ ความจริงทั้งสองอย่างนี้ หรือทั้งคู่นี้มันตัวเดียวกันทั้งนั้น ไม่ใช่คนละตัว แต่เราไม่รู้เรื่องของมัน
พระพุทธเจ้าของเรา และสาวกทั้งหลายของพระองค์นั้นท่านก็อยากเหมือนกัน แต่ “อยาก” ของท่านนั้น เป็นเพียงอาการของจิตเฉย ๆ หรือ “ไม่อยาก” ของท่าน ก็เป็นเพียงอาการของจิตเฉย ๆ อีกเหมือนกัน มันวูบเดียวเท่านั้น ก็หายไปแล้ว
ดังนั้น ความอยากหรือไม่อยากนี้ มันมีอยู่ตลอดเวลาแต่สำหรับผู้มีปัญญานั้น “อยาก” ก็ไม่มีอุปาทาน “ไม่อยาก” ก็ไม่มีอุปาทาน เป็น “สักแต่ว่า” อยากหรือไม่อยากเท่านั้น ถ้าพูดตามความจริงแล้ว มันก็เป็นแต่ "อาการของจิต" อาการของจิตมันเป็นของมันอย่างนั้นเอง ถ้าเรามาตะครุบมันอยู่ใกล้ ๆ นี่มันก็เห็นชัด
ดังนั้นจึงว่า การพิจารณานั้น ไม่ใช่รู้ไปที่อื่น มันรู้ตรงนี้แหละ เหมือนชาวประมงที่ออกไปทอดแหนั่นแหละ ทอดแหออกไปถูกปลาตัวใหญ่ เจ้าของผู้ทอดแหจะคิดอย่างไร? ก็กลัว กลัวปลาจะออกจากแหไปเสีย เมื่อเป็นเช่นนั้น ใจมันก็ดิ้นรนขึ้นระวังมาก บังคับมาก ตะครุบไปตะครุบมาอยู่นั่นแหละ ประเดี๋ยวปลามันก็ออกจากแหไปเสีย เพราะไปตะครุบมันแรงเกินไป
อย่างนั้นโบราณท่านพูดถึงเรื่องอันนี้ ท่านว่าค่อย ๆ ทำมัน แต่อย่าไปห่างจากมัน นี่คือปฏิปทาของเรา ค่อย ๆ คลำมันไปเรื่อย ๆ อย่างนั้นแหละ
อย่าปล่อยมัน หรือไม่อยากรู้มัน ต้องรู้ ต้องรู้เรื่องของมัน พยายามทำมันไปเรื่อย ๆ ให้เป็นปฏิปทา ขี้เกียจเราก็ทำไม่ขี้เกียจเราก็ทำ เรียกว่าการทำการปฏิบัติ ต้องทำไปเรื่อยๆอย่างนี้
ถ้าหากว่าเราขยัน ขยันเพราะความเชื่อ มันมีศรัทธาแต่ปัญญาไม่มี ถ้าเป็นอย่างนี้ ขยันไป ๆ แล้วมันก็ไม่เกิดผลอะไรขึ้นมากมาย ขยันไปนาน ๆ เข้า แต่มันไม่ถูกทาง มันก็ไม่สงบระงับ ทีนี้ก็จะเกิดความคิดว่า เรานี้บุญน้อยหรือวาสนาน้อย หรือคิดไปว่ามนุษย์ในโลกนี้คงทำไม่ได้หรอก แล้วก็เลยหยุดเลิกทำเลิกปฏิบัติ
ถ้าเกิดความคิดอย่างนี้เมื่อใด ขอให้ระวังให้มาก ให้มีขันติ ความอดทน ให้ทำไปเรื่อย ๆ เหมือนกับเราจับปลาตัวใหญ่ ก็ให้ค่อย ๆ คลำมันไปเรื่อย ๆ ปลามันก็จะไม่ดิ้นแรงค่อย ๆทำไปเรื่อย ๆ ไม่หยุด ไม่ช้าปลาก็จะหมดกำลัง มันก็จับง่าย จับให้ถนัดมือเลย ถ้าเรารีบจนเกินไป ปลามันก็จะหนีดิ้นออกจากแหเท่านั้น
ดังนั้น การปฏิบัตินี้ ถ้าเราพิจารณาตามพื้นเหตุของเรา เช่นว่า เราไม่มีความรู้ในปริยัติ ไม่มีความรู้ในอะไรอื่น ที่จะให้การปฏิบัติมันเกิดผลขึ้น ก็ดูความรู้ที่เป็นพื้นเพเดิมของเรานั่นแหละอันนั้นก็คือ “ธรรมชาติของจิต” นี่เอง มันมีของมันอยู่แล้ว เราจะไปเรียนรู้มัน มันก็มีอยู่ หรือเราจะไม่ไปเรียนรู้มัน มันก็มีอยู่
อย่างที่ท่านพูดว่า พระพุทธเจ้าจะบังเกิดขึ้นก็ตาม หรือไม่บังเกิดขึ้นก็ตาม ธรรมะก็คงมีอยู่อย่างนั้น มันเป็นของมันอยู่อย่างนั้น ไม่พลิกแพลงไปไหน มันเป็นสัจจธรรม
เราไม่เข้าใจสัจจธรรม ก็ไม่รู้ว่าสัจจธรรมเป็นอย่างไร นี้เรียกว่า การพิจารณาในความรู้ของผู้ปฏิบัติที่ไม่มีพื้นปริยัติ
ขอให้ดูจิต พยายามอ่านจิตของเจ้าของ พยายามพูดกับจิตของเจ้าของ มันจึงจะรู้เรื่องของจิต ค่อย ๆ ทำไป ถ้ายังไม่ถึงที่ของมัน มันก็ไปอยู่อย่างนั้น
ครูบาอาจารย์บางท่านบอกว่า ทำไปเรื่อย ๆ อย่าหยุด บางทีเรามาคิด “เออ ทำไปเรื่อย ๆ ถ้าไม่รู้เรื่องของมัน ถ้าทำไม่ถูกที่มัน มันจะรู้อะไร” อย่างนี้เป็นต้น ก็ต้องไปเรื่อย ๆ ก่อน แล้วมันก็จะเกิดความรู้สึกนึกคิดขึ้นในสิ่งที่เราพากเพียรทำนั้น
มันเหมือนกันกับบุรุษที่ไปสีไฟ ได้ฟังท่านบอกว่า เอาไม้ไผ่สองอันมาสีกันเข้าไปเถอะ แล้วจะมีไฟเกิดขึ้น บุรุษนั้นก็จับไม้ไผ่เข้าสองอัน สีกันเข้า แต่ใจร้อน สีไปได้หน่อย ก็อยากให้มันเป็นไฟ ใจก็เร่งอยู่เรื่อย ให้เป็นไฟเร็วๆ แต่ไฟก็ไม่เกิดสักที บุรุษนั้นก็เกิดความขี้เกียจ แล้วก็หยุดพัก แล้วจึงลองสีอีกนิด แล้วก็หยุดพัก ความร้อนที่พอมีอยู่บ้าง ก็หายไปล่ะซิ เพราะความร้อนมันไม่ติดต่อกัน
ถ้าทำไปเรื่อยๆอย่างนี้ เหนื่อยก็หยุด มีแต่เหนื่อยอย่างเดียวก็พอได้ แต่มีขี้เกียจปนเข้าด้วย เลยไปกันใหญ่ แล้วบุรุษนั้นก็หาว่าไฟไม่มี ไม่เอาไฟ ก็ทิ้ง เลิก ไม่สีอีก แล้วก็ไปเที่ยวประกาศว่า ไฟไม่มี ทำอย่างนี้ไม่ได้ ไม่มีไฟหรอก เขาได้ลองทำแล้ว
ก็จริงเหมือนกันที่ได้ทำแล้ว แต่ทำยังไม่ถึงจุดของมันคือความร้อนยังไม่สมดุลกัน ไฟมันก็เกิดขึ้นไม่ได้ ทั้งที่ความจริงไฟมันก็มีอยู่ อย่างนี้ก็เกิดความท้อแท้ขึ้นในใจของผู้ปฏิบัตินั้น ก็ละอันนี้ไปทำอันโน้นเรื่อยไป อันนี้ฉันใดก็ฉันนั้น
การปฏิบัตินั้น ปฏิบัติทางกายทางใจทั้งสองอย่าง มันต้องพร้อมกัน เพราะอะไร? เพราะพื้นเพมันเป็นคนมีกิเลสทั้งนั้น พระพุทธเจ้าก่อนที่จะเป็นพระพุทธเจ้า ท่านก็มีกิเลสแต่ท่านมีปัญญามากหลาย พระอรหันต์ก็เหมือนกัน เมื่อยังเป็นปุถุชนอยู่ ก็เหมือนกับเรา
เมื่อความอยากเกิดขึ้นมา เราก็ไม่รู้จัก เมื่อความไม่อยากเกิดขึ้นมา เราก็ไม่รู้จัก บางทีก็ร้อนใจ บางทีก็ดีใจ ถ้าใจเราไม่อยาก ก็ดีใจแบบหนึ่ง และวุ่นวายอีกแบบหนึ่ง ถ้าใจเราอยาก มันก็วุ่นวายอย่างหนึ่ง และดีใจอย่างหนึ่ง มันประสมประเสกันอยู่อย่างนี้
อันนี้คือปฏิปทาของผู้ปฏิบัติเรา
[อ่านใจธรรมชาติ] หลวงปู่ชา สุภัทโท หนังสือ หมวด: โพธิญาณ
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@ 21810ca8:f2e8341e
2025-05-28 08:10:53Ich bin neu bei Nostr und versuche mich hier rein zu fuchsen. Kann das einer sehen? Und dann habe ich noch viele Fragen
Gibt es gute Marktplätze wie ebay oder ebay kleinanzeigen wo man stink normale dinge und kram von zuhause gegen sat verkaufen kann.