@ eac63075:b4988b48

Since its creation in 2009, Bitcoin has symbolized innovation and resilience. However, from time to time, alarmist narratives arise about emerging technologies that could "break" its security. Among these, quantum computing stands out as one of the most recurrent. But does quantum computing truly threaten Bitcoin? And more importantly, what is the community doing to ensure the protocol remains invulnerable?

The answer, contrary to sensationalist headlines, is reassuring: Bitcoin is secure, and the community is already preparing for a future where quantum computing becomes a practical reality. Let’s dive into this topic to understand why the concerns are exaggerated and how the development of BIP-360 demonstrates that Bitcoin is one step ahead.

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What Is Quantum Computing, and Why Is Bitcoin Not Threatened?

Quantum computing leverages principles of quantum mechanics to perform calculations that, in theory, could exponentially surpass classical computers—and it has nothing to do with what so-called “quantum coaches” teach to scam the uninformed. One of the concerns is that this technology could compromise two key aspects of Bitcoin’s security:

1. Wallets: These use elliptic curve algorithms (ECDSA) to protect private keys. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could deduce a private key from its public key.
2. Mining: This is based on the SHA-256 algorithm, which secures the consensus process. A quantum attack could, in theory, compromise the proof-of-work mechanism.

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Understanding Quantum Computing’s Attack Priorities

While quantum computing is often presented as a threat to Bitcoin, not all parts of the network are equally vulnerable. Theoretical attacks would be prioritized based on two main factors: ease of execution and potential reward. This creates two categories of attacks:

1. Attacks on Wallets

Bitcoin wallets, secured by elliptic curve algorithms, would be the initial targets due to the relative vulnerability of their public keys, especially those already exposed on the blockchain. Two attack scenarios stand out:

• Short-term attacks: These occur during the interval between sending a transaction and its inclusion in a block (approximately 10 minutes). A quantum computer could intercept the exposed public key and derive the corresponding private key to redirect funds by creating a transaction with higher fees.

• Long-term attacks: These focus on old wallets whose public keys are permanently exposed. Wallets associated with Satoshi Nakamoto, for example, are especially vulnerable because they were created before the practice of using hashes to mask public keys.

We can infer a priority order for how such attacks might occur based on urgency and importance.

Bitcoin Quantum Attack: Prioritization Matrix (Urgency vs. Importance)

2. Attacks on Mining

Targeting the SHA-256 algorithm, which secures the mining process, would be the next objective. However, this is far more complex and requires a level of quantum computational power that is currently non-existent and far from realization. A successful attack would allow for the recalculation of all possible hashes to dominate the consensus process and potentially "mine" it instantly.

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Satoshi Nakamoto in 2010 on Quantum Computing and Bitcoin Attacks

Recently, Narcelio asked me about a statement I made on Tubacast:

https://x.com/eddieoz/status/1868371296683511969

If an attack became a reality before Bitcoin was prepared, it would be necessary to define the last block prior to the attack and proceed from there using a new hashing algorithm. The solution would resemble the response to the infamous 2013 bug. It’s a fact that this would cause market panic, and Bitcoin's price would drop significantly, creating a potential opportunity for the well-informed.

Preferably, if developers could anticipate the threat and had time to work on a solution and build consensus before an attack, they would simply decide on a future block for the fork, which would then adopt the new algorithm. It might even rehash previous blocks (reaching consensus on them) to avoid potential reorganization through the re-mining of blocks using the old hash. (I often use the term "shielding" old transactions).

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How Can Users Protect Themselves?

While quantum computing is still far from being a practical threat, some simple measures can already protect users against hypothetical scenarios:

• Avoid using exposed public keys: Ensure funds sent to old wallets are transferred to new ones that use public key hashes. This reduces the risk of long-term attacks.
• Use modern wallets: Opt for wallets compatible with SegWit or Taproot, which implement better security practices.
• Monitor security updates: Stay informed about updates from the Bitcoin community, such as the implementation of BIP-360, which will introduce quantum-resistant addresses.
• Do not reuse addresses: Every transaction should be associated with a new address to minimize the risk of repeated exposure of the same public key.
• Adopt secure backup practices: Create offline backups of private keys and seeds in secure locations, protected from unauthorized access.

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BIP-360 and Bitcoin’s Preparation for the Future

Even though quantum computing is still beyond practical reach, the Bitcoin community is not standing still. A concrete example is BIP-360, a proposal that establishes the technical framework to make wallets resistant to quantum attacks.

BIP-360 addresses three main pillars:

1. Introduction of quantum-resistant addresses: A new address format starting with "BC1R" will be used. These addresses will be compatible with post-quantum algorithms, ensuring that stored funds are protected from future attacks.
2. Compatibility with the current ecosystem: The proposal allows users to transfer funds from old addresses to new ones without requiring drastic changes to the network infrastructure.
3. Flexibility for future updates: BIP-360 does not limit the choice of specific algorithms. Instead, it serves as a foundation for implementing new post-quantum algorithms as technology evolves.

This proposal demonstrates how Bitcoin can adapt to emerging threats without compromising its decentralized structure.

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Post-Quantum Algorithms: The Future of Bitcoin Cryptography

The community is exploring various algorithms to protect Bitcoin from quantum attacks. Among the most discussed are:

• Falcon: A solution combining smaller public keys with compact digital signatures. Although it has been tested in limited scenarios, it still faces scalability and performance challenges.
• Sphincs: Hash-based, this algorithm is renowned for its resilience, but its signatures can be extremely large, making it less efficient for networks like Bitcoin’s blockchain.
• Lamport: Created in 1977, it’s considered one of the earliest post-quantum security solutions. Despite its reliability, its gigantic public keys (16,000 bytes) make it impractical and costly for Bitcoin.

Two technologies show great promise and are well-regarded by the community:

1. Lattice-Based Cryptography: Considered one of the most promising, it uses complex mathematical structures to create systems nearly immune to quantum computing. Its implementation is still in its early stages, but the community is optimistic.
2. Supersingular Elliptic Curve Isogeny: These are very recent digital signature algorithms and require extensive study and testing before being ready for practical market use.

The final choice of algorithm will depend on factors such as efficiency, cost, and integration capability with the current system. Additionally, it is preferable that these algorithms are standardized before implementation, a process that may take up to 10 years.

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Why Quantum Computing Is Far from Being a Threat

The alarmist narrative about quantum computing overlooks the technical and practical challenges that still need to be overcome. Among them:

• Insufficient number of qubits: Current quantum computers have only a few hundred qubits, whereas successful attacks would require millions.
• High error rate: Quantum stability remains a barrier to reliable large-scale operations.
• High costs: Building and operating large-scale quantum computers requires massive investments, limiting their use to scientific or specific applications.

Moreover, even if quantum computers make significant advancements, Bitcoin is already adapting to ensure its infrastructure is prepared to respond.

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Conclusion: Bitcoin’s Secure Future

Despite advancements in quantum computing, the reality is that Bitcoin is far from being threatened. Its security is ensured not only by its robust architecture but also by the community’s constant efforts to anticipate and mitigate challenges.

The implementation of BIP-360 and the pursuit of post-quantum algorithms demonstrate that Bitcoin is not only resilient but also proactive. By adopting practical measures, such as using modern wallets and migrating to quantum-resistant addresses, users can further protect themselves against potential threats.

Bitcoin’s future is not at risk—it is being carefully shaped to withstand any emerging technology, including quantum computing.

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Based on a recent paper that included collaboration from renowned experts such as Lynn Alden, Steve Lee, and Ren Crypto Fish, we discuss in depth how Bitcoin's consensus is built, the main risks, and the complex dynamics of protocol upgrades.

PT-BR version

Podcast https://www.fountain.fm/episode/wbjD6ntQuvX5u2G5BccC

Presentation https://gamma.app/docs/Analyzing-Bitcoin-Consensus-Risks-in-Protocol-Upgrades-p66axxjwaa37ksn

1. Introduction to Consensus in Bitcoin

Consensus in Bitcoin is the foundation that keeps the network secure and functional, allowing users worldwide to perform transactions in a decentralized manner without the need for intermediaries. Since its launch in 2009, Bitcoin is often described as an "immutable" system designed to resist changes, and it is precisely this resistance that ensures its security and stability.

The central idea behind consensus in Bitcoin is to create a set of acceptance rules for blocks and transactions, ensuring that all network participants agree on the transaction history. This prevents "double-spending," where the same bitcoin could be used in two simultaneous transactions, something that would compromise trust in the network.

Evolution of Consensus in Bitcoin

Over the years, consensus in Bitcoin has undergone several adaptations, and the way participants agree on changes remains a delicate process. Unlike traditional systems, where changes can be imposed from the top down, Bitcoin operates in a decentralized model where any significant change needs the support of various groups of stakeholders, including miners, developers, users, and large node operators.

Moreover, the update process is extremely cautious, as hasty changes can compromise the network's security. As a result, the philosophy of "don't fix what isn't broken" prevails, with improvements happening incrementally and only after broad consensus among those involved. This model can make progress seem slow but ensures that Bitcoin remains faithful to the principles of security and decentralization.

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2. Technical Components of Consensus

Bitcoin's consensus is supported by a set of technical rules that determine what is considered a valid transaction and a valid block on the network. These technical aspects ensure that all nodes—the computers that participate in the Bitcoin network—agree on the current state of the blockchain. Below are the main technical components that form the basis of the consensus.

Validation of Blocks and Transactions

The validation of blocks and transactions is the central point of consensus in Bitcoin. A block is only considered valid if it meets certain criteria, such as maximum size, transaction structure, and the solving of the "Proof of Work" problem. The proof of work, required for a block to be included in the blockchain, is a computational process that ensures the block contains significant computational effort—protecting the network against manipulation attempts.

Transactions, in turn, need to follow specific input and output rules. Each transaction includes cryptographic signatures that prove the ownership of the bitcoins sent, as well as validation scripts that verify if the transaction conditions are met. This validation system is essential for network nodes to autonomously confirm that each transaction follows the rules.

Chain Selection

Another fundamental technical issue for Bitcoin's consensus is chain selection, which becomes especially important in cases where multiple versions of the blockchain coexist, such as after a network split (fork). To decide which chain is the "true" one and should be followed, the network adopts the criterion of the highest accumulated proof of work. In other words, the chain with the highest number of valid blocks, built with the greatest computational effort, is chosen by the network as the official one.

This criterion avoids permanent splits because it encourages all nodes to follow the same main chain, reinforcing consensus.

Soft Forks vs. Hard Forks

In the consensus process, protocol changes can happen in two ways: through soft forks or hard forks. These variations affect not only the protocol update but also the implications for network users:

• Soft Forks: These are changes that are backward compatible. Only nodes that adopt the new update will follow the new rules, but old nodes will still recognize the blocks produced with these rules as valid. This compatibility makes soft forks a safer option for updates, as it minimizes the risk of network division.

• Hard Forks: These are updates that are not backward compatible, requiring all nodes to update to the new version or risk being separated from the main chain. Hard forks can result in the creation of a new coin, as occurred with the split between Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash in 2017. While hard forks allow for deeper changes, they also bring significant risks of network fragmentation.

These technical components form the base of Bitcoin's security and resilience, allowing the system to remain functional and immutable without losing the necessary flexibility to evolve over time.

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3. Stakeholders in Bitcoin's Consensus

Consensus in Bitcoin is not decided centrally. On the contrary, it depends on the interaction between different groups of stakeholders, each with their motivations, interests, and levels of influence. These groups play fundamental roles in how changes are implemented or rejected on the network. Below, we explore the six main stakeholders in Bitcoin's consensus.

1. Economic Nodes

Economic nodes, usually operated by exchanges, custody providers, and large companies that accept Bitcoin, exert significant influence over consensus. Because they handle large volumes of transactions and act as a connection point between the Bitcoin ecosystem and the traditional financial system, these nodes have the power to validate or reject blocks and to define which version of the software to follow in case of a fork.

Their influence is proportional to the volume of transactions they handle, and they can directly affect which chain will be seen as the main one. Their incentive is to maintain the network's stability and security to preserve its functionality and meet regulatory requirements.

2. Investors

Investors, including large institutional funds and individual Bitcoin holders, influence consensus indirectly through their impact on the asset's price. Their buying and selling actions can affect Bitcoin's value, which in turn influences the motivation of miners and other stakeholders to continue investing in the network's security and development.

Some institutional investors have agreements with custodians that may limit their ability to act in network split situations. Thus, the impact of each investor on consensus can vary based on their ownership structure and how quickly they can react to a network change.

3. Media Influencers

Media influencers, including journalists, analysts, and popular personalities on social media, have a powerful role in shaping public opinion about Bitcoin and possible updates. These influencers can help educate the public, promote debates, and bring transparency to the consensus process.

On the other hand, the impact of influencers can be double-edged: while they can clarify complex topics, they can also distort perceptions by amplifying or minimizing change proposals. This makes them a force both of support and resistance to consensus.

4. Miners

Miners are responsible for validating transactions and including blocks in the blockchain. Through computational power (hashrate), they also exert significant influence over consensus decisions. In update processes, miners often signal their support for a proposal, indicating that the new version is safe to use. However, this signaling is not always definitive, and miners can change their position if they deem it necessary.

Their incentive is to maximize returns from block rewards and transaction fees, as well as to maintain the value of investments in their specialized equipment, which are only profitable if the network remains stable.

5. Protocol Developers

Protocol developers, often called "Core Developers," are responsible for writing and maintaining Bitcoin's code. Although they do not have direct power over consensus, they possess an informal veto power since they decide which changes are included in the main client (Bitcoin Core). This group also serves as an important source of technical knowledge, helping guide decisions and inform other stakeholders.

Their incentive lies in the continuous improvement of the network, ensuring security and decentralization. Many developers are funded by grants and sponsorships, but their motivations generally include a strong ideological commitment to Bitcoin's principles.

6. Users and Application Developers

This group includes people who use Bitcoin in their daily transactions and developers who build solutions based on the network, such as wallets, exchanges, and payment platforms. Although their power in consensus is less than that of miners or economic nodes, they play an important role because they are responsible for popularizing Bitcoin's use and expanding the ecosystem.

If application developers decide not to adopt an update, this can affect compatibility and widespread acceptance. Thus, they indirectly influence consensus by deciding which version of the protocol to follow in their applications.

These stakeholders are vital to the consensus process, and each group exerts influence according to their involvement, incentives, and ability to act in situations of change. Understanding the role of each makes it clearer how consensus is formed and why it is so difficult to make significant changes to Bitcoin.

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4. Mechanisms for Activating Updates in Bitcoin

For Bitcoin to evolve without compromising security and consensus, different mechanisms for activating updates have been developed over the years. These mechanisms help coordinate changes among network nodes to minimize the risk of fragmentation and ensure that updates are implemented in an orderly manner. Here, we explore some of the main methods used in Bitcoin, their advantages and disadvantages, as well as historical examples of significant updates.

Flag Day

The Flag Day mechanism is one of the simplest forms of activating changes. In it, a specific date or block is determined as the activation moment, and all nodes must be updated by that point. This method does not involve prior signaling; participants simply need to update to the new software version by the established day or block.

• Advantages: Simplicity and predictability are the main benefits of Flag Day, as everyone knows the exact activation date.

• Disadvantages: Inflexibility can be a problem because there is no way to adjust the schedule if a significant part of the network has not updated. This can result in network splits if a significant number of nodes are not ready for the update.

An example of Flag Day was the Pay to Script Hash (P2SH) update in 2012, which required all nodes to adopt the change to avoid compatibility issues.

BIP34 and BIP9

BIP34 introduced a more dynamic process, in which miners increase the version number in block headers to signal the update. When a predetermined percentage of the last blocks is mined with this new version, the update is automatically activated. This model later evolved with BIP9, which allowed multiple updates to be signaled simultaneously through "version bits," each corresponding to a specific change.

• Advantages: Allows the network to activate updates gradually, giving more time for participants to adapt.

• Disadvantages: These methods rely heavily on miner support, which means that if a sufficient number of miners do not signal the update, it can be delayed or not implemented.

BIP9 was used in the activation of SegWit (BIP141) but faced challenges because some miners did not signal their intent to activate, leading to the development of new mechanisms.

User Activated Soft Forks (UASF) and User Resisted Soft Forks (URSF)

To increase the decision-making power of ordinary users, the concept of User Activated Soft Fork (UASF) was introduced, allowing node operators, not just miners, to determine consensus for a change. In this model, nodes set a date to start rejecting blocks that are not in compliance with the new update, forcing miners to adapt or risk having their blocks rejected by the network.

URSF, in turn, is a model where nodes reject blocks that attempt to adopt a specific update, functioning as resistance against proposed changes.

• Advantages: UASF returns decision-making power to node operators, ensuring that changes do not depend solely on miners.

• Disadvantages: Both UASF and URSF can generate network splits, especially in cases of strong opposition among different stakeholders.

An example of UASF was the activation of SegWit in 2017, where users supported activation independently of miner signaling, which ended up forcing its adoption.

BIP8 (LOT=True)

BIP8 is an evolution of BIP9, designed to prevent miners from indefinitely blocking a change desired by the majority of users and developers. BIP8 allows setting a parameter called "lockinontimeout" (LOT) as true, which means that if the update has not been fully signaled by a certain point, it is automatically activated.

• Advantages: Ensures that changes with broad support among users are not blocked by miners who wish to maintain the status quo.

• Disadvantages: Can lead to network splits if miners or other important stakeholders do not support the update.

Although BIP8 with LOT=True has not yet been used in Bitcoin, it is a proposal that can be applied in future updates if necessary.

These activation mechanisms have been essential for Bitcoin's development, allowing updates that keep the network secure and functional. Each method brings its own advantages and challenges, but all share the goal of preserving consensus and network cohesion.

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5. Risks and Considerations in Consensus Updates

Consensus updates in Bitcoin are complex processes that involve not only technical aspects but also political, economic, and social considerations. Due to the network's decentralized nature, each change brings with it a set of risks that need to be carefully assessed. Below, we explore some of the main challenges and future scenarios, as well as the possible impacts on stakeholders.

Network Fragility with Alternative Implementations

One of the main risks associated with consensus updates is the possibility of network fragmentation when there are alternative software implementations. If an update is implemented by a significant group of nodes but rejected by others, a network split (fork) can occur. This creates two competing chains, each with a different version of the transaction history, leading to unpredictable consequences for users and investors.

Such fragmentation weakens Bitcoin because, by dividing hashing power (computing) and coin value, it reduces network security and investor confidence. A notable example of this risk was the fork that gave rise to Bitcoin Cash in 2017 when disagreements over block size resulted in a new chain and a new asset.

Chain Splits and Impact on Stakeholders

Chain splits are a significant risk in update processes, especially in hard forks. During a hard fork, the network is split into two separate chains, each with its own set of rules. This results in the creation of a new coin and leaves users with duplicated assets on both chains. While this may seem advantageous, in the long run, these splits weaken the network and create uncertainties for investors.

Each group of stakeholders reacts differently to a chain split:

• Institutional Investors and ETFs: Face regulatory and compliance challenges because many of these assets are managed under strict regulations. The creation of a new coin requires decisions to be made quickly to avoid potential losses, which may be hampered by regulatory constraints.

• Miners: May be incentivized to shift their computing power to the chain that offers higher profitability, which can weaken one of the networks.

• Economic Nodes: Such as major exchanges and custody providers, have to quickly choose which chain to support, influencing the perceived value of each network.

Such divisions can generate uncertainties and loss of value, especially for institutional investors and those who use Bitcoin as a store of value.

Regulatory Impacts and Institutional Investors

With the growing presence of institutional investors in Bitcoin, consensus changes face new compliance challenges. Bitcoin ETFs, for example, are required to follow strict rules about which assets they can include and how chain split events should be handled. The creation of a new asset or migration to a new chain can complicate these processes, creating pressure for large financial players to quickly choose a chain, affecting the stability of consensus.

Moreover, decisions regarding forks can influence the Bitcoin futures and derivatives market, affecting perception and adoption by new investors. Therefore, the need to avoid splits and maintain cohesion is crucial to attract and preserve the confidence of these investors.

Security Considerations in Soft Forks and Hard Forks

While soft forks are generally preferred in Bitcoin for their backward compatibility, they are not without risks. Soft forks can create different classes of nodes on the network (updated and non-updated), which increases operational complexity and can ultimately weaken consensus cohesion. In a network scenario with fragmentation of node classes, Bitcoin's security can be affected, as some nodes may lose part of the visibility over updated transactions or rules.

In hard forks, the security risk is even more evident because all nodes need to adopt the new update to avoid network division. Experience shows that abrupt changes can create temporary vulnerabilities, in which malicious agents try to exploit the transition to attack the network.

Bounty Claim Risks and Attack Scenarios

Another risk in consensus updates are so-called "bounty claims"—accumulated rewards that can be obtained if an attacker manages to split or deceive a part of the network. In a conflict scenario, a group of miners or nodes could be incentivized to support a new update or create an alternative version of the software to benefit from these rewards.

These risks require stakeholders to carefully assess each update and the potential vulnerabilities it may introduce. The possibility of "bounty claims" adds a layer of complexity to consensus because each interest group may see a financial opportunity in a change that, in the long term, may harm network stability.

The risks discussed above show the complexity of consensus in Bitcoin and the importance of approaching it gradually and deliberately. Updates need to consider not only technical aspects but also economic and social implications, in order to preserve Bitcoin's integrity and maintain trust among stakeholders.

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6. Recommendations for the Consensus Process in Bitcoin

To ensure that protocol changes in Bitcoin are implemented safely and with broad support, it is essential that all stakeholders adopt a careful and coordinated approach. Here are strategic recommendations for evaluating, supporting, or rejecting consensus updates, considering the risks and challenges discussed earlier, along with best practices for successful implementation.

1. Careful Evaluation of Proposal Maturity

Stakeholders should rigorously assess the maturity level of a proposal before supporting its implementation. Updates that are still experimental or lack a robust technical foundation can expose the network to unnecessary risks. Ideally, change proposals should go through an extensive testing phase, have security audits, and receive review and feedback from various developers and experts.

2. Extensive Testing in Secure and Compatible Networks

Before an update is activated on the mainnet, it is essential to test it on networks like testnet and signet, and whenever possible, on other compatible networks that offer a safe and controlled environment to identify potential issues. Testing on networks like Litecoin was fundamental for the safe launch of innovations like SegWit and the Lightning Network, allowing functionalities to be validated on a lower-impact network before being implemented on Bitcoin.

The Liquid Network, developed by Blockstream, also plays an important role as an experimental network for new proposals, such as OP_CAT. By adopting these testing environments, stakeholders can mitigate risks and ensure that the update is reliable and secure before being adopted by the main network.

3. Importance of Stakeholder Engagement

The success of a consensus update strongly depends on the active participation of all stakeholders. This includes economic nodes, miners, protocol developers, investors, and end users. Lack of participation can lead to inadequate decisions or even future network splits, which would compromise Bitcoin's security and stability.

4. Key Questions for Evaluating Consensus Proposals

To assist in decision-making, each group of stakeholders should consider some key questions before supporting a consensus change:

• Does the proposal offer tangible benefits for Bitcoin's security, scalability, or usability?
• Does it maintain backward compatibility or introduce the risk of network split?
• Are the implementation requirements clear and feasible for each group involved?
• Are there clear and aligned incentives for all stakeholder groups to accept the change?

5. Coordination and Timing in Implementations

Timing is crucial. Updates with short activation windows can force a split because not all nodes and miners can update simultaneously. Changes should be planned with ample deadlines to allow all stakeholders to adjust their systems, avoiding surprises that could lead to fragmentation.

Mechanisms like soft forks are generally preferable to hard forks because they allow a smoother transition. Opting for backward-compatible updates when possible facilitates the process and ensures that nodes and miners can adapt without pressure.

6. Continuous Monitoring and Re-evaluation

After an update, it's essential to monitor the network to identify problems or side effects. This continuous process helps ensure cohesion and trust among all participants, keeping Bitcoin as a secure and robust network.

These recommendations, including the use of secure networks for extensive testing, promote a collaborative and secure environment for Bitcoin's consensus process. By adopting a deliberate and strategic approach, stakeholders can preserve Bitcoin's value as a decentralized and censorship-resistant network.

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7. Conclusion

Consensus in Bitcoin is more than a set of rules; it's the foundation that sustains the network as a decentralized, secure, and reliable system. Unlike centralized systems, where decisions can be made quickly, Bitcoin requires a much more deliberate and cooperative approach, where the interests of miners, economic nodes, developers, investors, and users must be considered and harmonized. This governance model may seem slow, but it is fundamental to preserving the resilience and trust that make Bitcoin a global store of value and censorship-resistant.

Consensus updates in Bitcoin must balance the need for innovation with the preservation of the network's core principles. The development process of a proposal needs to be detailed and rigorous, going through several testing stages, such as in testnet, signet, and compatible networks like Litecoin and Liquid Network. These networks offer safe environments for proposals to be analyzed and improved before being launched on the main network.

Each proposed change must be carefully evaluated regarding its maturity, impact, backward compatibility, and support among stakeholders. The recommended key questions and appropriate timing are critical to ensure that an update is adopted without compromising network cohesion. It's also essential that the implementation process is continuously monitored and re-evaluated, allowing adjustments as necessary and minimizing the risk of instability.

By following these guidelines, Bitcoin's stakeholders can ensure that the network continues to evolve safely and robustly, maintaining user trust and further solidifying its role as one of the most resilient and innovative digital assets in the world. Ultimately, consensus in Bitcoin is not just a technical issue but a reflection of its community and the values it represents: security, decentralization, and resilience.

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8. Links

Whitepaper: https://github.com/bitcoin-cap/bcap

Youtube (pt-br): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rARycAibl9o&list=PL-qnhF0qlSPkfhorqsREuIu4UTbF0h4zb

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The future of physical money is at stake, and the discussion about DREX, the new digital currency planned by the Central Bank of Brazil, is gaining momentum. In a candid and intense conversation, Federal Deputy Julia Zanatta (PL/SC) discussed the challenges and risks of this digital transition, also addressing her Bill No. 3,341/2024, which aims to prevent the extinction of physical currency. This bill emerges as a direct response to legislative initiatives seeking to replace physical money with digital alternatives, limiting citizens' options and potentially compromising individual freedom. Let's delve into the main points of this conversation.

https://www.fountain.fm/episode/i5YGJ9Ors3PkqAIMvNQ0

(PT-BR version here)

What is a CBDC?

Before discussing the specifics of DREX, it’s important to understand what a CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) is. CBDCs are digital currencies issued by central banks, similar to a digital version of physical money. Unlike cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, which operate in a decentralized manner, CBDCs are centralized and regulated by the government. In other words, they are digital currencies created and controlled by the Central Bank, intended to replace physical currency.

A prominent feature of CBDCs is their programmability. This means that the government can theoretically set rules about how, where, and for what this currency can be used. This aspect enables a level of control over citizens' finances that is impossible with physical money. By programming the currency, the government could limit transactions by setting geographical or usage restrictions. In practice, money within a CBDC could be restricted to specific spending or authorized for use in a defined geographical area.

In countries like China, where citizen actions and attitudes are also monitored, a person considered to have a "low score" due to a moral or ideological violation may have their transactions limited to essential purchases, restricting their digital currency use to non-essential activities. This financial control is strengthened because, unlike physical money, digital currency cannot be exchanged anonymously.

Practical Example: The Case of DREX During the Pandemic

To illustrate how DREX could be used, an example was given by Eric Altafim, director of Banco Itaú. He suggested that, if DREX had existed during the COVID-19 pandemic, the government could have restricted the currency’s use to a 5-kilometer radius around a person’s residence, limiting their economic mobility. Another proposed use by the executive related to the Bolsa Família welfare program: the government could set up programming that only allows this benefit to be used exclusively for food purchases. Although these examples are presented as control measures for safety or organization, they demonstrate how much a CBDC could restrict citizens' freedom of choice.

To illustrate the potential for state control through a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), such as DREX, it is helpful to look at the example of China. In China, the implementation of a CBDC coincides with the country’s Social Credit System, a governmental surveillance tool that assesses citizens' and companies' behavior. Together, these technologies allow the Chinese government to monitor, reward, and, above all, punish behavior deemed inappropriate or threatening to the government.

How Does China's Social Credit System Work?

Implemented in 2014, China's Social Credit System assigns every citizen and company a "score" based on various factors, including financial behavior, criminal record, social interactions, and even online activities. This score determines the benefits or penalties each individual receives and can affect everything from public transport access to obtaining loans and enrolling in elite schools for their children. Citizens with low scores may face various sanctions, including travel restrictions, fines, and difficulty in securing loans.

With the adoption of the CBDC — or “digital yuan” — the Chinese government now has a new tool to closely monitor citizens' financial transactions, facilitating the application of Social Credit System penalties. China’s CBDC is a programmable digital currency, which means that the government can restrict how, when, and where the money can be spent. Through this level of control, digital currency becomes a powerful mechanism for influencing citizens' behavior.

Imagine, for instance, a citizen who repeatedly posts critical remarks about the government on social media or participates in protests. If the Social Credit System assigns this citizen a low score, the Chinese government could, through the CBDC, restrict their money usage in certain areas or sectors. For example, they could be prevented from buying tickets to travel to other regions, prohibited from purchasing certain consumer goods, or even restricted to making transactions only at stores near their home.

Another example of how the government can use the CBDC to enforce the Social Credit System is by monitoring purchases of products such as alcohol or luxury items. If a citizen uses the CBDC to spend more than the government deems reasonable on such products, this could negatively impact their social score, resulting in additional penalties such as future purchase restrictions or a lowered rating that impacts their personal and professional lives.

In China, this kind of control has already been demonstrated in several cases. Citizens added to Social Credit System “blacklists” have seen their spending and investment capacity severely limited. The combination of digital currency and social scores thus creates a sophisticated and invasive surveillance system, through which the Chinese government controls important aspects of citizens’ financial lives and individual freedoms.

Deputy Julia Zanatta views these examples with great concern. She argues that if the state has full control over digital money, citizens will be exposed to a level of economic control and surveillance never seen before. In a democracy, this control poses a risk, but in an authoritarian regime, it could be used as a powerful tool of repression.

DREX and Bill No. 3,341/2024

Julia Zanatta became aware of a bill by a Workers' Party (PT) deputy (Bill 4068/2020 by Deputy Reginaldo Lopes - PT/MG) that proposes the extinction of physical money within five years, aiming for a complete transition to DREX, the digital currency developed by the Central Bank of Brazil. Concerned about the impact of this measure, Julia drafted her bill, PL No. 3,341/2024, which prohibits the elimination of physical money, ensuring citizens the right to choose physical currency.

“The more I read about DREX, the less I want its implementation,” says the deputy. DREX is a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), similar to other state digital currencies worldwide, but which, according to Julia, carries extreme control risks. She points out that with DREX, the State could closely monitor each citizen’s transactions, eliminating anonymity and potentially restricting freedom of choice. This control would lie in the hands of the Central Bank, which could, in a crisis or government change, “freeze balances or even delete funds directly from user accounts.”

Risks and Individual Freedom

Julia raises concerns about potential abuses of power that complete digitalization could allow. In a democracy, state control over personal finances raises serious questions, and EddieOz warns of an even more problematic future. “Today we are in a democracy, but tomorrow, with a government transition, we don't know if this kind of power will be used properly or abused,” he states. In other words, DREX gives the State the ability to restrict or condition the use of money, opening the door to unprecedented financial surveillance.

EddieOz cites Nigeria as an example, where a CBDC was implemented, and the government imposed severe restrictions on the use of physical money to encourage the use of digital currency, leading to protests and clashes in the country. In practice, the poorest and unbanked — those without regular access to banking services — were harshly affected, as without physical money, many cannot conduct basic transactions. Julia highlights that in Brazil, this situation would be even more severe, given the large number of unbanked individuals and the extent of rural areas where access to technology is limited.

The Relationship Between DREX and Pix

The digital transition has already begun with Pix, which revolutionized instant transfers and payments in Brazil. However, Julia points out that Pix, though popular, is a citizen’s choice, while DREX tends to eliminate that choice. The deputy expresses concern about new rules suggested for Pix, such as daily transaction limits of a thousand reais, justified as anti-fraud measures but which, in her view, represent additional control and a profit opportunity for banks. “How many more rules will banks create to profit from us?” asks Julia, noting that DREX could further enhance control over personal finances.

International Precedents and Resistance to CBDC

The deputy also cites examples from other countries resisting the idea of a centralized digital currency. In the United States, states like New Hampshire have passed laws to prevent the advance of CBDCs, and leaders such as Donald Trump have opposed creating a national digital currency. Trump, addressing the topic, uses a justification similar to Julia’s: in a digitalized system, “with one click, your money could disappear.” She agrees with the warning, emphasizing the control risk that a CBDC represents, especially for countries with disadvantaged populations.

Besides the United States, Canada, Colombia, and Australia have also suspended studies on digital currencies, citing the need for further discussions on population impacts. However, in Brazil, the debate on DREX is still limited, with few parliamentarians and political leaders openly discussing the topic. According to Julia, only she and one or two deputies are truly trying to bring this discussion to the Chamber, making DREX’s advance even more concerning.

Bill No. 3,341/2024 and Popular Pressure

For Julia, her bill is a first step. Although she acknowledges that ideally, it would prevent DREX's implementation entirely, PL 3341/2024 is a measure to ensure citizens' choice to use physical money, preserving a form of individual freedom. “If the future means control, I prefer to live in the past,” Julia asserts, reinforcing that the fight for freedom is at the heart of her bill.

However, the deputy emphasizes that none of this will be possible without popular mobilization. According to her, popular pressure is crucial for other deputies to take notice and support PL 3341. “I am only one deputy, and we need the public’s support to raise the project’s visibility,” she explains, encouraging the public to press other parliamentarians and ask them to “pay attention to PL 3341 and the project that prohibits the end of physical money.” The deputy believes that with a strong awareness and pressure movement, it is possible to advance the debate and ensure Brazilians’ financial freedom.

What’s at Stake?

Julia Zanatta leaves no doubt: DREX represents a profound shift in how money will be used and controlled in Brazil. More than a simple modernization of the financial system, the Central Bank’s CBDC sets precedents for an unprecedented level of citizen surveillance and control in the country. For the deputy, this transition needs to be debated broadly and transparently, and it’s up to the Brazilian people to defend their rights and demand that the National Congress discuss these changes responsibly.

The deputy also emphasizes that, regardless of political or partisan views, this issue affects all Brazilians. “This agenda is something that will affect everyone. We need to be united to ensure people understand the gravity of what could happen.” Julia believes that by sharing information and generating open debate, it is possible to prevent Brazil from following the path of countries that have already implemented a digital currency in an authoritarian way.

A Call to Action

The future of physical money in Brazil is at risk. For those who share Deputy Julia Zanatta’s concerns, the time to act is now. Mobilize, get informed, and press your representatives. PL 3341/2024 is an opportunity to ensure that Brazilian citizens have a choice in how to use their money, without excessive state interference or surveillance.

In the end, as the deputy puts it, the central issue is freedom. “My fear is that this project will pass, and people won’t even understand what is happening.” Therefore, may every citizen at least have the chance to understand what’s at stake and make their voice heard in defense of a Brazil where individual freedom and privacy are respected values.

@ 8fb140b4:f948000c

Embarking on the journey of operating your own Lightning node on the Bitcoin Layer 2 network is more than just a tech-savvy endeavor; it's a step into a realm of financial autonomy and cutting-edge innovation. By running a node, you become a vital part of a revolutionary movement that's reshaping how we think about money and digital transactions. This role not only offers a unique perspective on blockchain technology but also places you at the heart of a community dedicated to decentralization and network resilience. Beyond the technicalities, it's about embracing a new era of digital finance, where you contribute directly to the network's security, efficiency, and growth, all while gaining personal satisfaction and potentially lucrative rewards.

In essence, running your own Lightning node is a powerful way to engage with the forefront of blockchain technology, assert financial independence, and contribute to a more decentralized and efficient Bitcoin network. It's an adventure that offers both personal and communal benefits, from gaining in-depth tech knowledge to earning a place in the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency.

Running your own Lightning node for the Bitcoin Layer 2 network can be an empowering and beneficial endeavor. Here are 10 reasons why you might consider taking on this task:

1. Direct Contribution to Decentralization: Operating a node is a direct action towards decentralizing the Bitcoin network, crucial for its security and resistance to control or censorship by any single entity.

2. Financial Autonomy: Owning a node gives you complete control over your financial transactions on the network, free from reliance on third-party services, which can be subject to fees, restrictions, or outages.

3. Advanced Network Participation: As a node operator, you're not just a passive participant but an active player in shaping the network, influencing its efficiency and scalability through direct involvement.

4. Potential for Higher Revenue: With strategic management and optimal channel funding, your node can become a preferred route for transactions, potentially increasing the routing fees you can earn.

5. Cutting-Edge Technological Engagement: Running a node puts you at the forefront of blockchain and bitcoin technology, offering insights into future developments and innovations.

6. Strengthened Network Security: Each new node adds to the robustness of the Bitcoin network, making it more resilient against attacks and failures, thus contributing to the overall security of the ecosystem.

7. Personalized Fee Structures: You have the flexibility to set your own fee policies, which can balance earning potential with the service you provide to the network.

8. Empowerment Through Knowledge: The process of setting up and managing a node provides deep learning opportunities, empowering you with knowledge that can be applied in various areas of blockchain and fintech.

9. Boosting Transaction Capacity: By running a node, you help to increase the overall capacity of the Lightning Network, enabling more transactions to be processed quickly and at lower costs.

10. Community Leadership and Reputation: As an active node operator, you gain recognition within the Bitcoin community, which can lead to collaborative opportunities and a position of thought leadership in the space.

These reasons demonstrate the impactful and transformative nature of running a Lightning node, appealing to those who are deeply invested in the principles of bitcoin and wish to actively shape its future. Jump aboard, and embrace the journey toward full independence. 🐶🐾🫡🚀🚀🚀

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Chef's notes

Serving these two dishes together will create a delightful centerpiece for your Thanksgiving meal, offering a perfect blend of traditional flavors with a homemade touch.

Details

• ⏲️ Prep time: 30 min
• 🍳 Cook time: 1 - 2 hours
• 🍽️ Servings: 4-6

Ingredients

• 1 whole turkey (about 12-14 lbs), thawed and ready to cook
• 1 cup unsalted butter, softened
• 2 tablespoons fresh thyme, chopped
• 2 tablespoons fresh rosemary, chopped
• 2 tablespoons fresh sage, chopped
• Salt and freshly ground black pepper
• 1 onion, quartered
• 1 lemon, halved
• 2-3 cloves of garlic
• Apple and Sage Stuffing
• 1 loaf of crusty bread, cut into cubes
• 2 apples, cored and chopped
• 1 onion, diced
• 2 stalks celery, diced
• 3 cloves garlic, minced
• 1/4 cup fresh sage, chopped
• 1/2 cup unsalted butter
• 2 cups chicken broth
• Salt and pepper, to taste

Directions

1. Preheat the Oven: Set your oven to 325°F (165°C).
2. Prepare the Herb Butter: Mix the softened butter with the chopped thyme, rosemary, and sage. Season with salt and pepper.
3. Prepare the Turkey: Remove any giblets from the turkey and pat it dry. Loosen the skin and spread a generous amount of herb butter under and over the skin.
4. Add Aromatics: Inside the turkey cavity, place the quartered onion, lemon halves, and garlic cloves.
5. Roast: Place the turkey in a roasting pan. Tent with aluminum foil and roast. A general guideline is about 15 minutes per pound, or until the internal temperature reaches 165°F (74°C) at the thickest part of the thigh.
6. Rest and Serve: Let the turkey rest for at least 20 minutes before carving.
7. Next: Apple and Sage Stuffing
8. Dry the Bread: Spread the bread cubes on a baking sheet and let them dry overnight, or toast them in the oven.
9. Cook the Vegetables: In a large skillet, melt the butter and cook the onion, celery, and garlic until soft.
10. Combine Ingredients: Add the apples, sage, and bread cubes to the skillet. Stir in the chicken broth until the mixture is moist. Season with salt and pepper.
11. Bake: Transfer the stuffing to a baking dish and bake at 350°F (175°C) for about 30-40 minutes, until golden brown on top.

@ 8fb140b4:f948000c

Testing a brand new YakiHonne native client for iOS. Smooth as butter (not penis butter 🤣🍆🧈) with great visual experience and intuitive navigation. Amazing work by the team behind it! * lists * work

Bold text work!

Images could have used nostr.build instead of raw S3 from us-east-1 region.

Very impressive! You can even save the draft and continue later, before posting the long-form note!

🐶🐾🤯🤯🤯🫂💜

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As the title states, scratch behind my ear and you get it. 🐶🐾🫡

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Test Bounty Note

@ 8fb140b4:f948000c

Intro

This short tutorial will help you set up your own Nostr Wallet Connect (NWC) on your own LND Node that is not using Umbrel. If you are a user of Umbrel, you should use their version of NWC.

Requirements

You need to have a working installation of LND with established channels and connectivity to the internet. NWC in itself is fairly light and will not consume a lot of resources. You will also want to ensure that you have a working installation of Docker, since we will use a docker image to run NWC.

• Working installation of LND (and all of its required components)
• Docker (with Docker compose)

Installation

For the purpose of this tutorial, we will assume that you have your lnd/bitcoind running under user bitcoin with home directory /home/bitcoin. We will also assume that you already have a running installation of Docker (or docker.io).

Prepare and verify

git version - we will need git to get the latest version of NWC. docker version - should execute successfully and show the currently installed version of Docker. docker compose version - same as before, but the version will be different. ss -tupln | grep 10009- should produce the following output: tcp LISTEN 0 4096 0.0.0.0:10009 0.0.0.0: tcp LISTEN 0 4096 [::]:10009 [::]:**

For things to work correctly, your Docker should be version 20.10.0 or later. If you have an older version, consider installing a new one using instructions here: https://docs.docker.com/engine/install/

Create folders & download NWC

In the home directory of your LND/bitcoind user, create a new folder, e.g., "nwc" mkdir /home/bitcoin/nwc. Change to that directory cd /home/bitcoin/nwc and clone the NWC repository: git clone https://github.com/getAlby/nostr-wallet-connect.git

Creating the Docker image

In this step, we will create a Docker image that you will use to run NWC.

• Change directory to nostr-wallet-connect: cd nostr-wallet-connect
• Run command to build Docker image: docker build -t nwc:$(date +'%Y%m%d%H%M') -t nwc:latest . (there is a dot at the end)
• The last line of the output (after a few minutes) should look like => => naming to docker.io/library/nwc:latest
• nwc:latest is the name of the Docker image with a tag which you should note for use later.

Creating docker-compose.yml and necessary data directories

• Let's create a directory that will hold your non-volatile data (DB): mkdir data
• Indocker-compose.ymlfile, there are fields that you want to replace (<> comments) and port “4321” that you want to make sure is open (check with ss -tupln | grep 4321which should return nothing).
• Create docker-compose.ymlfile with the following content, and make sure to update fields that have <> comment:

version: "3.8" services: nwc: image: nwc:latest volumes: - ./data:/data - ~/.lnd:/lnd:ro ports: - "4321:8080" extra_hosts: - "localhost:host-gateway" environment: NOSTR_PRIVKEY: <use "openssl rand -hex 32" to generate a fresh key and place it inside ""> LN_BACKEND_TYPE: "LND" LND_ADDRESS: localhost:10009 LND_CERT_FILE: "/lnd/tls.cert" LND_MACAROON_FILE: "/lnd/data/chain/bitcoin/mainnet/admin.macaroon" DATABASE_URI: "/data/nostr-wallet-connect.db" COOKIE_SECRET: <use "openssl rand -hex 32" to generate fresh secret and place it inside ""> PORT: 8080 restart: always stop_grace_period: 1m

Starting and testing

Now that you have everything ready, it is time to start the container and test.

• While you are in the nwcdirectory (important), execute the following command and check the log output, docker compose up
• You should see container logs while it is starting, and it should not exit if everything went well.
• At this point, you should be able to go to http://<ip of the host where nwc is running>:4321 and get to the interface of NWC
• To stop the test run of NWC, simply press Ctrl-C , and it will shut the container down.
• To start NWC permanently, you should execute docker compose up -d , “-d” tells Docker to detach from the session.
• To check currently running NWC logs, execute docker compose logs to run it in tail mode add -f to the end.
• To stop the container, execute docker compose down

That's all, just follow the instructions in the web interface to get started.

Updating

As with any software, you should expect fixes and updates that you would need to perform periodically. You could automate this, but it falls outside of the scope of this tutorial. Since we already have all of the necessary configuration in place, the update execution is fairly simple.

• Change directory to the clone of the git repository, cd /home/bitcoin/nwc/nostr-wallet-connect
• Run command to build Docker image: docker build -t nwc:$(date +'%Y%m%d%H%M') -t nwc:latest . (there is a dot at the end)
• Change directory back one level cd ..
• Restart (stop and start) the docker compose config docker compose down && docker compose up -d
• Done! Optionally you may want to check the logs: docker compose logs

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Bitcoin is more than money, more than an asset, and more than a store of value. Bitcoin is a Prime Mover, an enabler and it ignites imaginations. It certainly fueled an idea in my mind. The idea integrates sensors, computational prowess, actuated machinery, power conversion, and electronic communications to form an autonomous, machined creature roaming forests and harvesting the most widespread and least energy-dense fuel source available. I call it the Forest Walker and it eats wood, and mines Bitcoin.

I know what you're thinking. Why not just put Bitcoin mining rigs where they belong: in a hosted facility sporting electricity from energy-dense fuels like natural gas, climate-controlled with excellent data piping in and out? Why go to all the trouble building a robot that digests wood creating flammable gasses fueling an engine to run a generator powering Bitcoin miners? It's all about synergy.

Bitcoin mining enables the realization of multiple, seemingly unrelated, yet useful activities. Activities considered un-profitable if not for Bitcoin as the Prime Mover. This is much more than simply mining the greatest asset ever conceived by humankind. It’s about the power of synergy, which Bitcoin plays only one of many roles. The synergy created by this system can stabilize forests' fire ecology while generating multiple income streams. That’s the realistic goal here and requires a brief history of American Forest management before continuing.

Smokey The Bear

In 1944, the Smokey Bear Wildfire Prevention Campaign began in the United States. “Only YOU can prevent forest fires” remains the refrain of the Ad Council’s longest running campaign. The Ad Council is a U.S. non-profit set up by the American Association of Advertising Agencies and the Association of National Advertisers in 1942. It would seem that the U.S. Department of the Interior was concerned about pesky forest fires and wanted them to stop. So, alongside a national policy of extreme fire suppression they enlisted the entire U.S. population to get onboard via the Ad Council and it worked. Forest fires were almost obliterated and everyone was happy, right? Wrong.

Smokey is a fantastically successful bear so forest fires became so few for so long that the fuel load - dead wood - in forests has become very heavy. So heavy that when a fire happens (and they always happen) it destroys everything in its path because the more fuel there is the hotter that fire becomes. Trees, bushes, shrubs, and all other plant life cannot escape destruction (not to mention homes and businesses). The soil microbiology doesn’t escape either as it is burned away even in deeper soils. To add insult to injury, hydrophobic waxy residues condense on the soil surface, forcing water to travel over the ground rather than through it eroding forest soils. Good job, Smokey. Well done, Sir!

Most terrestrial ecologies are “fire ecologies”. Fire is a part of these systems’ fuel load and pest management. Before we pretended to “manage” millions of acres of forest, fires raged over the world, rarely damaging forests. The fuel load was always too light to generate fires hot enough to moonscape mountainsides. Fires simply burned off the minor amounts of fuel accumulated since the fire before. The lighter heat, smoke, and other combustion gasses suppressed pests, keeping them in check and the smoke condensed into a plant growth accelerant called wood vinegar, not a waxy cap on the soil. These fires also cleared out weak undergrowth, cycled minerals, and thinned the forest canopy, allowing sunlight to penetrate to the forest floor. Without a fire’s heat, many pine tree species can’t sow their seed. The heat is required to open the cones (the seed bearing structure) of Spruce, Cypress, Sequoia, Jack Pine, Lodgepole Pine and many more. Without fire forests can’t have babies. The idea was to protect the forests, and it isn't working.

So, in a world of fire, what does an ally look like and what does it do?

Meet The Forest Walker

For the Forest Walker to work as a mobile, autonomous unit, a solid platform that can carry several hundred pounds is required. It so happens this chassis already exists but shelved.

Introducing the Legged Squad Support System (LS3). A joint project between Boston Dynamics, DARPA, and the United States Marine Corps, the quadrupedal robot is the size of a cow, can carry 400 pounds (180 kg) of equipment, negotiate challenging terrain, and operate for 24 hours before needing to refuel. Yes, it had an engine. Abandoned in 2015, the thing was too noisy for military deployment and maintenance "under fire" is never a high-quality idea. However, we can rebuild it to act as a platform for the Forest Walker; albeit with serious alterations. It would need to be bigger, probably. Carry more weight? Definitely. Maybe replace structural metal with carbon fiber and redesign much as 3D printable parts for more effective maintenance.

The original system has a top operational speed of 8 miles per hour. For our purposes, it only needs to move about as fast as a grazing ruminant. Without the hammering vibrations of galloping into battle, shocks of exploding mortars, and drunken soldiers playing "Wrangler of Steel Machines", time between failures should be much longer and the overall energy consumption much lower. The LS3 is a solid platform to build upon. Now it just needs to be pulled out of the mothballs, and completely refitted with outboard equipment.

The Small Branch Chipper

When I say “Forest fuel load” I mean the dead, carbon containing litter on the forest floor. Duff (leaves), fine-woody debris (small branches), and coarse woody debris (logs) are the fuel that feeds forest fires. Walk through any forest in the United States today and you will see quite a lot of these materials. Too much, as I have described. Some of these fuel loads can be 8 tons per acre in pine and hardwood forests and up to 16 tons per acre at active logging sites. That’s some big wood and the more that collects, the more combustible danger to the forest it represents. It also provides a technically unlimited fuel supply for the Forest Walker system.

The problem is that this detritus has to be chewed into pieces that are easily ingestible by the system for the gasification process (we’ll get to that step in a minute). What we need is a wood chipper attached to the chassis (the LS3); its “mouth”.

A small wood chipper handling material up to 2.5 - 3.0 inches (6.3 - 7.6 cm) in diameter would eliminate a substantial amount of fuel. There is no reason for Forest Walker to remove fallen trees. It wouldn’t have to in order to make a real difference. It need only identify appropriately sized branches and grab them. Once loaded into the chipper’s intake hopper for further processing, the beast can immediately look for more “food”. This is essentially kindling that would help ignite larger logs. If it’s all consumed by Forest Walker, then it’s not present to promote an aggravated conflagration.

I have glossed over an obvious question: How does Forest Walker see and identify branches and such? LiDaR (Light Detection and Ranging) attached to Forest Walker images the local area and feed those data to onboard computers for processing. Maybe AI plays a role. Maybe simple machine learning can do the trick. One thing is for certain: being able to identify a stick and cause robotic appendages to pick it up is not impossible.

Great! We now have a quadrupedal robot autonomously identifying and “eating” dead branches and other light, combustible materials. Whilst strolling through the forest, depleting future fires of combustibles, Forest Walker has already performed a major function of this system: making the forest safer. It's time to convert this low-density fuel into a high-density fuel Forest Walker can leverage. Enter the gasification process.

The Gassifier

The gasifier is the heart of the entire system; it’s where low-density fuel becomes the high-density fuel that powers the entire system. Biochar and wood vinegar are process wastes and I’ll discuss why both are powerful soil amendments in a moment, but first, what’s gasification?

Reacting shredded carbonaceous material at high temperatures in a low or no oxygen environment converts the biomass into biochar, wood vinegar, heat, and Synthesis Gas (Syngas). Syngas consists primarily of hydrogen, carbon monoxide, and methane. All of which are extremely useful fuels in a gaseous state. Part of this gas is used to heat the input biomass and keep the reaction temperature constant while the internal combustion engine that drives the generator to produce electrical power consumes the rest.

Critically, this gasification process is “continuous feed”. Forest Walker must intake biomass from the chipper, process it to fuel, and dump the waste (CO2, heat, biochar, and wood vinegar) continuously. It cannot stop. Everything about this system depends upon this continual grazing, digestion, and excretion of wastes just as a ruminal does. And, like a ruminant, all waste products enhance the local environment.

When I first heard of gasification, I didn’t believe that it was real. Running an electric generator from burning wood seemed more akin to “conspiracy fantasy” than science. Not only is gasification real, it’s ancient technology. A man named Dean Clayton first started experiments on gasification in 1699 and in 1901 gasification was used to power a vehicle. By the end of World War II, there were 500,000 Syngas powered vehicles in Germany alone because of fossil fuel rationing during the war. The global gasification market was $480 billion in 2022 and projected to be as much as $700 billion by 2030 (Vantage Market Research). Gasification technology is the best choice to power the Forest Walker because it’s self-contained and we want its waste products.

Biochar: The Waste

Biochar (AKA agricultural charcoal) is fairly simple: it’s almost pure, solid carbon that resembles charcoal. Its porous nature packs large surface areas into small, 3 dimensional nuggets. Devoid of most other chemistry, like hydrocarbons (methane) and ash (minerals), biochar is extremely lightweight. Do not confuse it with the charcoal you buy for your grill. Biochar doesn’t make good grilling charcoal because it would burn too rapidly as it does not contain the multitude of flammable components that charcoal does. Biochar has several other good use cases. Water filtration, water retention, nutrient retention, providing habitat for microscopic soil organisms, and carbon sequestration are the main ones that we are concerned with here.

Carbon has an amazing ability to adsorb (substances stick to and accumulate on the surface of an object) manifold chemistries. Water, nutrients, and pollutants tightly bind to carbon in this format. So, biochar makes a respectable filter and acts as a “battery” of water and nutrients in soils. Biochar adsorbs and holds on to seven times its weight in water. Soil containing biochar is more drought resilient than soil without it. Adsorbed nutrients, tightly sequestered alongside water, get released only as plants need them. Plants must excrete protons (H+) from their roots to disgorge water or positively charged nutrients from the biochar's surface; it's an active process.

Biochar’s surface area (where adsorption happens) can be 500 square meters per gram or more. That is 10% larger than an official NBA basketball court for every gram of biochar. Biochar’s abundant surface area builds protective habitats for soil microbes like fungi and bacteria and many are critical for the health and productivity of the soil itself.

The “carbon sequestration” component of biochar comes into play where “carbon credits” are concerned. There is a financial market for carbon. Not leveraging that market for revenue is foolish. I am climate agnostic. All I care about is that once solid carbon is inside the soil, it will stay there for thousands of years, imparting drought resiliency, fertility collection, nutrient buffering, and release for that time span. I simply want as much solid carbon in the soil because of the undeniably positive effects it has, regardless of any climactic considerations.

Wood Vinegar: More Waste

Another by-product of the gasification process is wood vinegar (Pyroligneous acid). If you have ever seen Liquid Smoke in the grocery store, then you have seen wood vinegar. Principally composed of acetic acid, acetone, and methanol wood vinegar also contains ~200 other organic compounds. It would seem intuitive that condensed, liquefied wood smoke would at least be bad for the health of all living things if not downright carcinogenic. The counter intuition wins the day, however. Wood vinegar has been used by humans for a very long time to promote digestion, bowel, and liver health; combat diarrhea and vomiting; calm peptic ulcers and regulate cholesterol levels; and a host of other benefits.

For centuries humans have annually burned off hundreds of thousands of square miles of pasture, grassland, forest, and every other conceivable terrestrial ecosystem. Why is this done? After every burn, one thing becomes obvious: the almost supernatural growth these ecosystems exhibit after the burn. How? Wood vinegar is a component of this growth. Even in open burns, smoke condenses and infiltrates the soil. That is when wood vinegar shows its quality.

This stuff beefs up not only general plant growth but seed germination as well and possesses many other qualities that are beneficial to plants. It’s a pesticide, fungicide, promotes beneficial soil microorganisms, enhances nutrient uptake, and imparts disease resistance. I am barely touching a long list of attributes here, but you want wood vinegar in your soil (alongside biochar because it adsorbs wood vinegar as well).

The Internal Combustion Engine

Conversion of grazed forage to chemical, then mechanical, and then electrical energy completes the cycle. The ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) converts the gaseous fuel output from the gasifier to mechanical energy, heat, water vapor, and CO2. It’s the mechanical energy of a rotating drive shaft that we want. That rotation drives the electric generator, which is the heartbeat we need to bring this monster to life. Luckily for us, combined internal combustion engine and generator packages are ubiquitous, delivering a defined energy output given a constant fuel input. It’s the simplest part of the system.

The obvious question here is whether the amount of syngas provided by the gasification process will provide enough energy to generate enough electrons to run the entire system or not. While I have no doubt the energy produced will run Forest Walker's main systems the question is really about the electrons left over. Will it be enough to run the Bitcoin mining aspect of the system? Everything is a budget.

CO2 Production For Growth

Plants are lollipops. No matter if it’s a tree or a bush or a shrubbery, the entire thing is mostly sugar in various formats but mostly long chain carbohydrates like lignin and cellulose. Plants need three things to make sugar: CO2, H2O and light. In a forest, where tree densities can be quite high, CO2 availability becomes a limiting growth factor. It’d be in the forest interests to have more available CO2 providing for various sugar formation providing the organism with food and structure.

An odd thing about tree leaves, the openings that allow gasses like the ever searched for CO2 are on the bottom of the leaf (these are called stomata). Not many stomata are topside. This suggests that trees and bushes have evolved to find gasses like CO2 from below, not above and this further suggests CO2 might be in higher concentrations nearer the soil.

The soil life (bacterial, fungi etc.) is constantly producing enormous amounts of CO2 and it would stay in the soil forever (eventually killing the very soil life that produces it) if not for tidal forces. Water is everywhere and whether in pools, lakes, oceans or distributed in “moist” soils water moves towards to the moon. The water in the soil and also in the water tables below the soil rise toward the surface every day. When the water rises, it expels the accumulated gasses in the soil into the atmosphere and it’s mostly CO2. It’s a good bet on how leaves developed high populations of stomata on the underside of leaves. As the water relaxes (the tide goes out) it sucks oxygenated air back into the soil to continue the functions of soil life respiration. The soil “breathes” albeit slowly.

The gasses produced by the Forest Walker’s internal combustion engine consist primarily of CO2 and H2O. Combusting sugars produce the same gasses that are needed to construct the sugars because the universe is funny like that. The Forest Walker is constantly laying down these critical construction elements right where the trees need them: close to the ground to be gobbled up by the trees.

The Branch Drones

During the last ice age, giant mammals populated North America - forests and otherwise. Mastodons, woolly mammoths, rhinos, short-faced bears, steppe bison, caribou, musk ox, giant beavers, camels, gigantic ground-dwelling sloths, glyptodons, and dire wolves were everywhere. Many were ten to fifteen feet tall. As they crashed through forests, they would effectively cleave off dead side-branches of trees, halting the spread of a ground-based fire migrating into the tree crown ("laddering") which is a death knell for a forest.

These animals are all extinct now and forests no longer have any manner of pruning services. But, if we build drones fitted with cutting implements like saws and loppers, optical cameras and AI trained to discern dead branches from living ones, these drones could effectively take over pruning services by identifying, cutting, and dropping to the forest floor, dead branches. The dropped branches simply get collected by the Forest Walker as part of its continual mission.

The drones dock on the back of the Forest Walker to recharge their batteries when low. The whole scene would look like a grazing cow with some flies bothering it. This activity breaks the link between a relatively cool ground based fire and the tree crowns and is a vital element in forest fire control.

The Bitcoin Miner

Mining is one of four monetary incentive models, making this system a possibility for development. The other three are US Dept. of the Interior, township, county, and electrical utility company easement contracts for fuel load management, global carbon credits trading, and data set sales. All the above depends on obvious questions getting answered. I will list some obvious ones, but this is not an engineering document and is not the place for spreadsheets. How much Bitcoin one Forest Walker can mine depends on everything else. What amount of biomass can we process? Will that biomass flow enough Syngas to keep the lights on? Can the chassis support enough mining ASICs and supporting infrastructure? What does that weigh and will it affect field performance? How much power can the AC generator produce?

Other questions that are more philosophical persist. Even if a single Forest Walker can only mine scant amounts of BTC per day, that pales to how much fuel material it can process into biochar. We are talking about millions upon millions of forested acres in need of fuel load management. What can a single Forest Walker do? I am not thinking in singular terms. The Forest Walker must operate as a fleet. What could 50 do? 500?

What is it worth providing a service to the world by managing forest fuel loads? Providing proof of work to the global monetary system? Seeding soil with drought and nutrient resilience by the excretion, over time, of carbon by the ton? What did the last forest fire cost?

The Mesh Network

What could be better than one bitcoin mining, carbon sequestering, forest fire squelching, soil amending behemoth? Thousands of them, but then they would need to be able to talk to each other to coordinate position, data handling, etc. Fitted with a mesh networking device, like goTenna or Meshtastic LoRa equipment enables each Forest Walker to communicate with each other.

Now we have an interconnected fleet of Forest Walkers relaying data to each other and more importantly, aggregating all of that to the last link in the chain for uplink. Well, at least Bitcoin mining data. Since block data is lightweight, transmission of these data via mesh networking in fairly close quartered environs is more than doable. So, how does data transmit to the Bitcoin Network? How do the Forest Walkers get the previous block data necessary to execute on mining?

Back To The Chain

Getting Bitcoin block data to and from the network is the last puzzle piece. The standing presumption here is that wherever a Forest Walker fleet is operating, it is NOT within cell tower range. We further presume that the nearest Walmart Wi-Fi is hours away. Enter the Blockstream Satellite or something like it.

A separate, ground-based drone will have two jobs: To stay as close to the nearest Forest Walker as it can and to provide an antennae for either terrestrial or orbital data uplink. Bitcoin-centric data is transmitted to the "uplink drone" via the mesh networked transmitters and then sent on to the uplink and the whole flow goes in the opposite direction as well; many to one and one to many.

We cannot transmit data to the Blockstream satellite, and it will be up to Blockstream and companies like it to provide uplink capabilities in the future and I don't doubt they will. Starlink you say? What’s stopping that company from filtering out block data? Nothing because it’s Starlink’s system and they could decide to censor these data. It seems we may have a problem sending and receiving Bitcoin data in back country environs.

But, then again, the utility of this system in staunching the fuel load that creates forest fires is extremely useful around forested communities and many have fiber, Wi-Fi and cell towers. These communities could be a welcoming ground zero for first deployments of the Forest Walker system by the home and business owners seeking fire repression. In the best way, Bitcoin subsidizes the safety of the communities.

Sensor Packages

LiDaR

The benefit of having a Forest Walker fleet strolling through the forest is the never ending opportunity for data gathering. A plethora of deployable sensors gathering hyper-accurate data on everything from temperature to topography is yet another revenue generator. Data is valuable and the Forest Walker could generate data sales to various government entities and private concerns.

LiDaR (Light Detection and Ranging) can map topography, perform biomass assessment, comparative soil erosion analysis, etc. It so happens that the Forest Walker’s ability to “see,” to navigate about its surroundings, is LiDaR driven and since it’s already being used, we can get double duty by harvesting that data for later use. By using a laser to send out light pulses and measuring the time it takes for the reflection of those pulses to return, very detailed data sets incrementally build up. Eventually, as enough data about a certain area becomes available, the data becomes useful and valuable.

Forestry concerns, both private and public, often use LiDaR to build 3D models of tree stands to assess the amount of harvest-able lumber in entire sections of forest. Consulting companies offering these services charge anywhere from several hundred to several thousand dollars per square kilometer for such services. A Forest Walker generating such assessments on the fly while performing its other functions is a multi-disciplinary approach to revenue generation.

pH, Soil Moisture, and Cation Exchange Sensing

The Forest Walker is quadrupedal, so there are four contact points to the soil. Why not get a pH data point for every step it takes? We can also gather soil moisture data and cation exchange capacities at unheard of densities because of sampling occurring on the fly during commission of the system’s other duties. No one is going to build a machine to do pH testing of vast tracts of forest soils, but that doesn’t make the data collected from such an endeavor valueless. Since the Forest Walker serves many functions at once, a multitude of data products can add to the return on investment component.

Weather Data

Temperature, humidity, pressure, and even data like evapotranspiration gathered at high densities on broad acre scales have untold value and because the sensors are lightweight and don’t require large power budgets, they come along for the ride at little cost. But, just like the old mantra, “gas, grass, or ass, nobody rides for free”, these sensors provide potential revenue benefits just by them being present.

I’ve touched on just a few data genres here. In fact, the question for universities, governmental bodies, and other institutions becomes, “How much will you pay us to attach your sensor payload to the Forest Walker?”

Noise Suppression

Only you can prevent Metallica filling the surrounds with 120 dB of sound. Easy enough, just turn the car stereo off. But what of a fleet of 50 Forest Walkers operating in the backcountry or near a township? 500? 5000? Each one has a wood chipper, an internal combustion engine, hydraulic pumps, actuators, and more cooling fans than you can shake a stick at. It’s a walking, screaming fire-breathing dragon operating continuously, day and night, twenty-four hours a day, three hundred sixty-five days a year. The sound will negatively affect all living things and that impacts behaviors. Serious engineering consideration and prowess must deliver a silencing blow to the major issue of noise.

It would be foolish to think that a fleet of Forest Walkers could be silent, but if not a major design consideration, then the entire idea is dead on arrival. Townships would not allow them to operate even if they solved the problem of widespread fuel load and neither would governmental entities, and rightly so. Nothing, not man nor beast, would want to be subjected to an eternal, infernal scream even if it were to end within days as the fleet moved further away after consuming what it could. Noise and heat are the only real pollutants of this system; taking noise seriously from the beginning is paramount.

Fire Safety

A “fire-breathing dragon” is not the worst description of the Forest Walker. It eats wood, combusts it at very high temperatures and excretes carbon; and it does so in an extremely flammable environment. Bad mix for one Forest Walker, worse for many. One must take extreme pains to ensure that during normal operation, a Forest Walker could fall over, walk through tinder dry brush, or get pounded into the ground by a meteorite from Krypton and it wouldn’t destroy epic swaths of trees and baby deer. I envision an ultimate test of a prototype to include dowsing it in grain alcohol while it’s wrapped up in toilet paper like a pledge at a fraternity party. If it runs for 72 hours and doesn’t set everything on fire, then maybe outside entities won’t be fearful of something that walks around forests with a constant fire in its belly.

The Wrap

How we think about what can be done with and adjacent to Bitcoin is at least as important as Bitcoin’s economic standing itself. For those who will tell me that this entire idea is without merit, I say, “OK, fine. You can come up with something, too.” What can we plug Bitcoin into that, like a battery, makes something that does not work, work? That’s the lesson I get from this entire exercise. No one was ever going to hire teams of humans to go out and "clean the forest". There's no money in that. The data collection and sales from such an endeavor might provide revenues over the break-even point but investment demands Alpha in this day and age. But, plug Bitcoin into an almost viable system and, voilà! We tip the scales to achieve lift-off.

Let’s face it, we haven’t scratched the surface of Bitcoin’s forcing function on our minds. Not because it’s Bitcoin, but because of what that invention means. The question that pushes me to approach things this way is, “what can we create that one system’s waste is another system’s feedstock?” The Forest Walker system’s only real waste is the conversion of low entropy energy (wood and syngas) into high entropy energy (heat and noise). All other output is beneficial to humanity.

Bitcoin, I believe, is the first product of a new mode of human imagination. An imagination newly forged over the past few millennia of being lied to, stolen from, distracted and otherwise mis-allocated to a black hole of the nonsensical. We are waking up.

What I have presented is not science fiction. Everything I have described here is well within the realm of possibility. The question is one of viability, at least in terms of the detritus of the old world we find ourselves departing from. This system would take a non-trivial amount of time and resources to develop. I think the system would garner extensive long-term contracts from those who have the most to lose from wildfires, the most to gain from hyperaccurate data sets, and, of course, securing the most precious asset in the world. Many may not see it that way, for they seek Alpha and are therefore blind to other possibilities. Others will see only the possibilities; of thinking in a new way, of looking at things differently, and dreaming of what comes next.

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My blog posts and reading material have both been on a decidedly economics-heavy slant recently. The topic today, incentives, squarely falls into the category of economics. However, when I say economics, I’m not talking about “analyzing supply and demand curves.” I’m talking about the true basis of economics: understanding how human beings make decisions in a world of scarcity.

A fair definition of incentive is “a reward or punishment that motivates behavior to achieve a desired outcome.” When most people think about economic incentives, they’re thinking of money. If I offer my son $5 if he washes the dishes, I’m incentivizing certain behavior. We can’t guarantee that he’ll do what I want him to do, but we can agree that the incentive structure itself will guide and ultimately determine what outcome will occur.

The great thing about monetary incentives is how easy they are to talk about and compare. “Would I rather make $5 washing the dishes or $10 cleaning the gutters?” But much of the world is incentivized in non-monetary ways too. For example, using the “punishment” half of the definition above, I might threaten my son with losing Nintendo Switch access if he doesn’t wash the dishes. No money is involved, but I’m still incentivizing behavior.

And there are plenty of incentives beyond our direct control! My son is also incentivized to not wash dishes because it’s boring, or because he has some friends over that he wants to hang out with, or dozens of other things. Ultimately, the conflicting array of different incentive structures placed on him will ultimately determine what actions he chooses to take.

Why incentives matter

A phrase I see often in discussions—whether they are political, parenting, economic, or business—is “if they could just do…” Each time I see that phrase, I cringe a bit internally. Usually, the underlying assumption of the statement is “if people would behave contrary to their incentivized behavior then things would be better.” For example:

• If my kids would just go to bed when I tell them, they wouldn’t be so cranky in the morning.
• If people would just use the recycling bin, we wouldn’t have such a landfill problem.
• If people would just stop being lazy, our team would deliver our project on time.

In all these cases, the speakers are seemingly flummoxed as to why the people in question don’t behave more rationally. The problem is: each group is behaving perfectly rationally.

• The kids have a high time preference, and care more about the joy of staying up now than the crankiness in the morning. Plus, they don’t really suffer the consequences of morning crankiness, their parents do.
• No individual suffers much from their individual contribution to a landfill. If they stopped growing the size of the landfill, it would make an insignificant difference versus the amount of effort they need to engage in to properly recycle.
• If a team doesn’t properly account for the productivity of individuals on a project, each individual receives less harm from their own inaction. Sure, the project may be delayed, company revenue may be down, and they may even risk losing their job when the company goes out of business. But their laziness individually won’t determine the entirety of that outcome. By contrast, they greatly benefit from being lazy by getting to relax at work, go on social media, read a book, or do whatever else they do when they’re supposed to be working.

My point here is that, as long as you ignore the reality of how incentives drive human behavior, you’ll fail at getting the outcomes you want.

If everything I wrote up until now made perfect sense, you understand the premise of this blog post. The rest of it will focus on a bunch of real-world examples to hammer home the point, and demonstrate how versatile this mental model is.

Running a company

Let’s say I run my own company, with myself as the only employee. My personal revenue will be 100% determined by my own actions. If I decide to take Tuesday afternoon off and go fishing, I’ve chosen to lose that afternoon’s revenue. Implicitly, I’ve decided that the enjoyment I get from an afternoon of fishing is greater than the potential revenue. You may think I’m being lazy, but it’s my decision to make. In this situation, the incentive–money–is perfectly aligned with my actions.

Compare this to a typical company/employee relationship. I might have a bank of Paid Time Off (PTO) days, in which case once again my incentives are relatively aligned. I know that I can take off 15 days throughout the year, and I’ve chosen to use half a day for the fishing trip. All is still good.

What about unlimited time off? Suddenly incentives are starting to misalign. I don’t directly pay a price for not showing up to work on Tuesday. Or Wednesday as well, for that matter. I might ultimately be fired for not doing my job, but that will take longer to work its way through the system than simply not making any money for the day taken off.

Compensation overall falls into this misaligned incentive structure. Let’s forget about taking time off. Instead, I work full time on a software project I’m assigned. But instead of using the normal toolchain we’re all used to at work, I play around with a new programming language. I get the fun and joy of playing with new technology, and potentially get to pad my resume a bit when I’m ready to look for a new job. But my current company gets slower results, less productivity, and is forced to subsidize my extracurricular learning.

When a CEO has a bonus structure based on profitability, he’ll do everything he can to make the company profitable. This might include things that actually benefit the company, like improving product quality, reducing internal red tape, or finding cheaper vendors. But it might also include destructive practices, like slashing the R\&D budget to show massive profits this year, in exchange for a catastrophe next year when the next version of the product fails to ship.

Or my favorite example. My parents owned a business when I was growing up. They had a back office where they ran operations like accounting. All of the furniture was old couches from our house. After all, any money they spent on furniture came right out of their paychecks! But in a large corporate environment, each department is generally given a budget for office furniture, a budget which doesn’t roll over year-to-year. The result? Executives make sure to spend the entire budget each year, often buying furniture far more expensive than they would choose if it was their own money.

There are plenty of details you can quibble with above. It’s in a company’s best interest to give people downtime so that they can come back recharged. Having good ergonomic furniture can in fact increase productivity in excess of the money spent on it. But overall, the picture is pretty clear: in large corporate structures, you’re guaranteed to have mismatches between the company’s goals and the incentive structure placed on individuals.

Using our model from above, we can lament how lazy, greedy, and unethical the employees are for doing what they’re incentivized to do instead of what’s right. But that’s simply ignoring the reality of human nature.

Moral hazard

Moral hazard is a situation where one party is incentivized to take on more risk because another party will bear the consequences. Suppose I tell my son when he turns 21 (or whatever legal gambling age is) that I’ll cover all his losses for a day at the casino, but he gets to keep all the winnings.

What do you think he’s going to do? The most logical course of action is to place the largest possible bets for as long as possible, asking me to cover each time he loses, and taking money off the table and into his bank account each time he wins.

But let’s look at a slightly more nuanced example. I go to a bathroom in the mall. As I’m leaving, I wash my hands. It will take me an extra 1 second to turn off the water when I’m done washing. That’s a trivial price to pay. If I don’t turn off the water, the mall will have to pay for many liters of wasted water, benefiting no one. But I won’t suffer any consequences at all.

This is also a moral hazard, but most people will still turn off the water. Why? Usually due to some combination of other reasons such as:

1. We’re so habituated to turning off the water that we don’t even consider not turning it off. Put differently, the mental effort needed to not turn off the water is more expensive than the 1 second of time to turn it off.
2. Many of us have been brought up with a deep guilt about wasting resources like water. We have an internal incentive structure that makes the 1 second to turn off the water much less costly than the mental anguish of the waste we created.
3. We’re afraid we’ll be caught by someone else and face some kind of social repercussions. (Or maybe more than social. Are you sure there isn’t a law against leaving the water tap on?)

Even with all that in place, you may notice that many public bathrooms use automatic water dispensers. Sure, there’s a sanitation reason for that, but it’s also to avoid this moral hazard.

A common denominator in both of these is that the person taking the action that causes the liability (either the gambling or leaving the water on) is not the person who bears the responsibility for that liability (the father or the mall owner). Generally speaking, the closer together the person making the decision and the person incurring the liability are, the smaller the moral hazard.

It’s easy to demonstrate that by extending the casino example a bit. I said it was the father who was covering the losses of the gambler. Many children (though not all) would want to avoid totally bankrupting their parents, or at least financially hurting them. Instead, imagine that someone from the IRS shows up at your door, hands you a credit card, and tells you you can use it at a casino all day, taking home all the chips you want. The money is coming from the government. How many people would put any restriction on how much they spend?

And since we’re talking about the government already…

Government moral hazards

As I was preparing to write this blog post, the California wildfires hit. The discussions around those wildfires gave a huge number of examples of moral hazards. I decided to cherry-pick a few for this post.

The first and most obvious one: California is asking for disaster relief funds from the federal government. That sounds wonderful. These fires were a natural disaster, so why shouldn’t the federal government pitch in and help take care of people?

The problem is, once again, a moral hazard. In the case of the wildfires, California and Los Angeles both had ample actions they could have taken to mitigate the destruction of this fire: better forest management, larger fire department, keeping the water reservoirs filled, and probably much more that hasn’t come to light yet.

If the federal government bails out California, it will be a clear message for the future: your mistakes will be fixed by others. You know what kind of behavior that incentivizes? More risky behavior! Why spend state funds on forest management and extra firefighters—activities that don’t win politicians a lot of votes in general—when you could instead spend it on a football stadium, higher unemployment payments, or anything else, and then let the feds cover the cost of screw-ups.

You may notice that this is virtually identical to the 2008 “too big to fail” bail-outs. Wall Street took insanely risky behavior, reaped huge profits for years, and when they eventually got caught with their pants down, the rest of us bailed them out. “Privatizing profits, socializing losses.”

And here’s the absolute best part of this: I can’t even truly blame either California or Wall Street. (I mean, I do blame them, I think their behavior is reprehensible, but you’ll see what I mean.) In a world where the rules of the game implicitly include the bail-out mentality, you would be harming your citizens/shareholders/investors if you didn’t engage in that risky behavior. Since everyone is on the hook for those socialized losses, your best bet is to maximize those privatized profits.

There’s a lot more to government and moral hazard, but I think these two cases demonstrate the crux pretty solidly. But let’s leave moral hazard behind for a bit and get to general incentivization discussions.

Non-monetary competition

At least 50% of the economics knowledge I have comes from the very first econ course I took in college. That professor was amazing, and had some very colorful stories. I can’t vouch for the veracity of the two I’m about to share, but they definitely drive the point home.

In the 1970s, the US had an oil shortage. To “fix” this problem, they instituted price caps on gasoline, which of course resulted in insufficient gasoline. To “fix” this problem, they instituted policies where, depending on your license plate number, you could only fill up gas on certain days of the week. (Irrelevant detail for our point here, but this just resulted in people filling up their tanks more often, no reduction in gas usage.)

Anyway, my professor’s wife had a friend. My professor described in great detail how attractive this woman was. I’ll skip those details here since this is a PG-rated blog. In any event, she never had any trouble filling up her gas tank any day of the week. She would drive up, be told she couldn’t fill up gas today, bat her eyes at the attendant, explain how helpless she was, and was always allowed to fill up gas.

This is a demonstration of non-monetary compensation. Most of the time in a free market, capitalist economy, people are compensated through money. When price caps come into play, there’s a limit to how much monetary compensation someone can receive. And in that case, people find other ways of competing. Like this woman’s case: through using flirtatious behavior to compensate the gas station workers to let her cheat the rules.

The other example was much more insidious. Santa Monica had a problem: it was predominantly wealthy and white. They wanted to fix this problem, and decided to put in place rent controls. After some time, they discovered that Santa Monica had become wealthier and whiter, the exact opposite of their desired outcome. Why would that happen?

Someone investigated, and ended up interviewing a landlady that demonstrated the reason. She was an older white woman, and admittedly racist. Prior to the rent controls, she would list her apartments in the newspaper, and would be legally obligated to rent to anyone who could afford it. Once rent controls were in place, she took a different tact. She knew that she would only get a certain amount for the apartment, and that the demand for apartments was higher than the supply. That meant she could be picky.

She ended up finding tenants through friends-of-friends. Since it wasn’t an official advertisement, she wasn’t legally required to rent it out if someone could afford to pay. Instead, she got to interview people individually and then make them an offer. Normally, that would have resulted in receiving a lower rental price, but not under rent controls.

So who did she choose? A young, unmarried, wealthy, white woman. It made perfect sense. Women were less intimidating and more likely to maintain the apartment better. Wealthy people, she determined, would be better tenants. (I have no idea if this is true in practice or not, I’m not a landlord myself.) Unmarried, because no kids running around meant less damage to the property. And, of course, white. Because she was racist, and her incentive structure made her prefer whites.

You can deride her for being racist, I won’t disagree with you. But it’s simply the reality. Under the non-rent-control scenario, her profit motive for money outweighed her racism motive. But under rent control, the monetary competition was removed, and she was free to play into her racist tendencies without facing any negative consequences.

Bureaucracy

These were the two examples I remember for that course. But non-monetary compensation pops up in many more places. One highly pertinent example is bureaucracies. Imagine you have a government office, or a large corporation’s acquisition department, or the team that apportions grants at a university. In all these cases, you have a group of people making decisions about handing out money that has no monetary impact on them. If they give to the best qualified recipients, they receive no raises. If they spend the money recklessly on frivolous projects, they face no consequences.

Under such an incentivization scheme, there’s little to encourage the bureaucrats to make intelligent funding decisions. Instead, they’ll be incentivized to spend the money where they recognize non-monetary benefits. This is why it’s so common to hear about expensive meals, gift bags at conferences, and even more inappropriate ways of trying to curry favor with those that hold the purse strings.

Compare that ever so briefly with the purchases made by a small mom-and-pop store like my parents owned. Could my dad take a bribe to buy from a vendor who’s ripping him off? Absolutely he could! But he’d lose more on the deal than he’d make on the bribe, since he’s directly incentivized by the deal itself. It would make much more sense for him to go with the better vendor, save $5,000 on the deal, and then treat himself to a lavish $400 meal to celebrate.

Government incentivized behavior

This post is getting longer in the tooth than I’d intended, so I’ll finish off with this section and make it a bit briefer. Beyond all the methods mentioned above, government has another mechanism for modifying behavior: through directly changing incentives via legislation, regulation, and monetary policy. Let’s see some examples:

• Artificial modification of interest rates encourages people to take on more debt than they would in a free capital market, leading to malinvestment and a consumer debt crisis, and causing the boom-bust cycle we all painfully experience.
• Going along with that, giving tax breaks on interest payments further artificially incentivizes people to take on debt that they wouldn’t otherwise.
• During COVID-19, at some points unemployment benefits were greater than minimum wage, incentivizing people to rather stay home and not work than get a job, leading to reduced overall productivity in the economy and more printed dollars for benefits. In other words, it was a perfect recipe for inflation.
• The tax code gives deductions to “help” people. That might be true, but the real impact is incentivizing people to make decisions they wouldn’t have otherwise. For example, giving out tax deductions on children encourages having more kids. Tax deductions on childcare and preschools incentivizes dual-income households. Whether or not you like the outcomes, it’s clear that it’s government that’s encouraging these outcomes to happen.
• Tax incentives cause people to engage in behavior they wouldn’t otherwise (daycare+working mother, for example).
• Inflation means that the value of your money goes down over time, which encourages people to spend more today, when their money has a larger impact. (Milton Friedman described this as high living.)

Conclusion

The idea here is simple, and fully encapsulated in the title: incentives determine outcomes. If you want to know how to get a certain outcome from others, incentivize them to want that to happen. If you want to understand why people act in seemingly irrational ways, check their incentives. If you’re confused why leaders (and especially politicians) seem to engage in destructive behavior, check their incentives.

We can bemoan these realities all we want, but they are realities. While there are some people who have a solid internal moral and ethical code, and that internal code incentivizes them to behave against their externally-incentivized interests, those people are rare. And frankly, those people are self-defeating. People should take advantage of the incentives around them. Because if they don’t, someone else will.

(If you want a literary example of that last comment, see the horse in Animal Farm.)

How do we improve the world under these conditions? Make sure the incentives align well with the overall goals of society. To me, it’s a simple formula:

• Focus on free trade, value for value, as the basis of a society. In that system, people are always incentivized to provide value to other people.
• Reduce the size of bureaucracies and large groups of all kinds. The larger an organization becomes, the farther the consequences of decisions are from those who make them.
• And since the nature of human beings will be to try and create areas where they can control the incentive systems to their own benefits, make that as difficult as possible. That comes in the form of strict limits on government power, for example.

And even if you don’t want to buy in to this conclusion, I hope the rest of the content was educational, and maybe a bit entertaining!

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I’ve been using Notedeck for several months, starting with its extremely early and experimental alpha versions, all the way to its current, more stable alpha releases. The journey has been fascinating, as I’ve had the privilege of watching it evolve from a concept into a functional and promising tool.

In its earliest stages, Notedeck was raw—offering glimpses of its potential but still far from practical for daily use. Even then, the vision behind it was clear: a platform designed to redefine how we interact with Nostr by offering flexibility and power for all users.

I'm very bullish on Notedeck. Why? Because Will Casarin is making it! Duh! 😂

Seriously though, if we’re reimagining the web and rebuilding portions of the Internet, it’s important to recognize the potential of Notedeck. If Nostr is reimagining the web, then Notedeck is reimagining the Nostr client.

Notedeck isn’t just another Nostr app—it’s more a Nostr browser that functions more like an operating system with micro-apps. How cool is that?

Much like how Google's Chrome evolved from being a web browser with a task manager into ChromeOS, a full blown operating system, Notedeck aims to transform how we interact with the Nostr. It goes beyond individual apps, offering a foundation for a fully integrated ecosystem built around Nostr.

As a Nostr evangelist, I love to scream INTEROPERABILITY and tout every application's integrations. Well, Notedeck has the potential to be one of the best platforms to showcase these integrations in entirely new and exciting ways.

Do you want an Olas feed of images? Add the media column.

Do you want a feed of live video events? Add the zap.stream column.

Do you want Nostr Nests or audio chats? Add that column to your Notedeck.

Git? Email? Books? Chat and DMs? It's all possible.

Not everyone wants a super app though, and that’s okay. As with most things in the Nostr ecosystem, flexibility is key. Notedeck gives users the freedom to choose how they engage with it—whether it’s simply following hashtags or managing straightforward feeds. You'll be able to tailor Notedeck to fit your needs, using it as extensively or minimally as you prefer.

Notedeck is designed with a local-first approach, utilizing Nostr content stored directly on your device via the local nostrdb. This will enable a plethora of advanced tools such as search and filtering, the creation of custom feeds, and the ability to develop personalized algorithms across multiple Notedeck micro-applications—all with unparalleled flexibility.

Notedeck also supports multicast. Let's geek out for a second. Multicast is a method of communication where data is sent from one source to multiple destinations simultaneously, but only to devices that wish to receive the data. Unlike broadcast, which sends data to all devices on a network, multicast targets specific receivers, reducing network traffic. This is commonly used for efficient data distribution in scenarios like streaming, conferencing, or large-scale data synchronization between devices.

In a local first world where each device holds local copies of your nostr nodes, and each device transparently syncs with each other on the local network, each node becomes a backup. Your data becomes antifragile automatically. When a node goes down it can resync and recover from other nodes. Even if not all nodes have a complete collection, negentropy can pull down only what is needed from each device. All this can be done without internet.

-Will Casarin

In the context of Notedeck, multicast would allow multiple devices to sync their Nostr nodes with each other over a local network without needing an internet connection. Wild.

Notedeck aims to offer full customization too, including the ability to design and share custom skins, much like Winamp. Users will also be able to create personalized columns and, in the future, share their setups with others. This opens the door for power users to craft tailored Nostr experiences, leveraging their expertise in the protocol and applications. By sharing these configurations as "Starter Decks," they can simplify onboarding and showcase the best of Nostr’s ecosystem.

Nostr’s “Other Stuff” can often be difficult to discover, use, or understand. Many users doesn't understand or know how to use web browser extensions to login to applications. Let's not even get started with nsecbunkers. Notedeck will address this challenge by providing a native experience that brings these lesser-known applications, tools, and content into a user-friendly and accessible interface, making exploration seamless. However, that doesn't mean Notedeck should disregard power users that want to use nsecbunkers though - hint hint.

For anyone interested in watching Nostr be developed live, right before your very eyes, Notedeck’s progress serves as a reminder of what’s possible when innovation meets dedication. The current alpha is already demonstrating its ability to handle complex use cases, and I’m excited to see how it continues to grow as it moves toward a full release later this year.

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This article hopes to complement the article by Lyn Alden on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jk_HWmmwiAs

The reason why we have broken money

Before the invention of key technologies such as the printing press and electronic communications, even such as those as early as morse code transmitters, gold had won the competition for best medium of money around the world.

In fact, it was not just gold by itself that became money, rulers and world leaders developed coins in order to help the economy grow. Gold nuggets were not as easy to transact with as coins with specific imprints and denominated sizes.

However, these modern technologies created massive efficiencies that allowed us to communicate and perform services more efficiently and much faster, yet the medium of money could not benefit from these advancements. Gold was heavy, slow and expensive to move globally, even though requesting and performing services globally did not have this limitation anymore.

Banks took initiative and created derivatives of gold: paper and electronic money; these new currencies allowed the economy to continue to grow and evolve, but it was not without its dark side. Today, no currency is denominated in gold at all, money is backed by nothing and its inherent value, the paper it is printed on, is worthless too.

Banks and governments eventually transitioned from a money derivative to a system of debt that could be co-opted and controlled for political and personal reasons. Our money today is broken and is the cause of more expensive, poorer quality goods in the economy, a larger and ever growing wealth gap, and many of the follow-on problems that have come with it.

Bitcoin overcomes the "transfer of hard money" problem

Just like gold coins were created by man, Bitcoin too is a technology created by man. Bitcoin, however is a much more profound invention, possibly more of a discovery than an invention in fact. Bitcoin has proven to be unbreakable, incorruptible and has upheld its ability to keep its units scarce, inalienable and counterfeit proof through the nature of its own design.

Since Bitcoin is a digital technology, it can be transferred across international borders almost as quickly as information itself. It therefore severely reduces the need for a derivative to be used to represent money to facilitate digital trade. This means that as the currency we use today continues to fare poorly for many people, bitcoin will continue to stand out as hard money, that just so happens to work as well, functionally, along side it.

Bitcoin will also always be available to anyone who wishes to earn it directly; even China is unable to restrict its citizens from accessing it. The dollar has traditionally become the currency for people who discover that their local currency is unsustainable. Even when the dollar has become illegal to use, it is simply used privately and unofficially. However, because bitcoin does not require you to trade it at a bank in order to use it across borders and across the web, Bitcoin will continue to be a viable escape hatch until we one day hit some critical mass where the world has simply adopted Bitcoin globally and everyone else must adopt it to survive.

Bitcoin has not yet proven that it can support the world at scale. However it can only be tested through real adoption, and just as gold coins were developed to help gold scale, tools will be developed to help overcome problems as they arise; ideally without the need for another derivative, but if necessary, hopefully with one that is more neutral and less corruptible than the derivatives used to represent gold.

Bitcoin blurs the line between commodity and technology

Bitcoin is a technology, it is a tool that requires human involvement to function, however it surprisingly does not allow for any concentration of power. Anyone can help to facilitate Bitcoin's operations, but no one can take control of its behaviour, its reach, or its prioritisation, as it operates autonomously based on a pre-determined, neutral set of rules.

At the same time, its built-in incentive mechanism ensures that people do not have to operate bitcoin out of the good of their heart. Even though the system cannot be co-opted holistically, It will not stop operating while there are people motivated to trade their time and resources to keep it running and earn from others' transaction fees. Although it requires humans to operate it, it remains both neutral and sustainable.

Never before have we developed or discovered a technology that could not be co-opted and used by one person or faction against another. Due to this nature, Bitcoin's units are often described as a commodity; they cannot be usurped or virtually cloned, and they cannot be affected by political biases.

The dangers of derivatives

A derivative is something created, designed or developed to represent another thing in order to solve a particular complication or problem. For example, paper and electronic money was once a derivative of gold.

In the case of Bitcoin, if you cannot link your units of bitcoin to an "address" that you personally hold a cryptographically secure key to, then you very likely have a derivative of bitcoin, not bitcoin itself. If you buy bitcoin on an online exchange and do not withdraw the bitcoin to a wallet that you control, then you legally own an electronic derivative of bitcoin.

Bitcoin is a new technology. It will have a learning curve and it will take time for humanity to learn how to comprehend, authenticate and take control of bitcoin collectively. Having said that, many people all over the world are already using and relying on Bitcoin natively. For many, it will require for people to find the need or a desire for a neutral money like bitcoin, and to have been burned by derivatives of it, before they start to understand the difference between the two. Eventually, it will become an essential part of what we regard as common sense.

Learn for yourself

If you wish to learn more about how to handle bitcoin and avoid derivatives, you can start by searching online for tutorials about "Bitcoin self custody".

There are many options available, some more practical for you, and some more practical for others. Don't spend too much time trying to find the perfect solution; practice and learn. You may make mistakes along the way, so be careful not to experiment with large amounts of your bitcoin as you explore new ideas and technologies along the way. This is similar to learning anything, like riding a bicycle; you are sure to fall a few times, scuff the frame, so don't buy a high performance racing bike while you're still learning to balance.

@ f51f916e:39ec49e7

What is so special about a Green Barbet, a Bronze-naped Pigeon and a Swamp Nightjar? Why do birders descend in their flocks for an unassuming sandpiper on the Mtunzini mudflats?

Rarities have value because they’re hard to find. We have to work for them, either by spending time in the right habitat or travelling to wherever their location might be.

Humans make decisions at the margin, under the influence of scarcity- the value of something is determined by how easy it is to obtain another one.

That’s why no one makes a special trip for a Burchell’s Coucal or an Olive Thrush, but happy to do so for a Black Coucal or a Spotted Ground-Thrush.

THE CONSERVATION PROBLEM

We all recognise that our birds and their habitats are threatened. If they weren’t, there wouldn’t be non-profits fighting everyday to counter the anthropogenic challenges.

But the question is, do we really understand the problem? Are our interventions reversing the trends, or only offering a temporary resistance? It is only when a disease’s underlying cause is understood that it can be cured.

In March/April 2022, African Birdlife magazine reported on the dire state of Ndumo Game Reserve in the article “Vested Interests”. Two paragraphs are startling:

• “…the human population living along the  Phongolo River (which stretches up to Jozini  and beyond) had grown from 30 000 to more  than 400 000 from 1980 to 2020.”
• “…in communities surrounding Ndumo Game Reserve, more than 70 percent of the population survives on less than R800 a month, provided by government grants and a small informal economy, and that up to 70 percent of residents are under the age of 18.”

This is the elephant in the room. And it’s going to get worse- this is why nothing conservation is doing today will make any difference.

Because the biggest threat to conservation is a socio-economic problem, and we are not addressing the economics.

TIME IS FUNDAMENTAL TO CONSERVATION

Conservation is the sustainable use of our natural resources. Sustainable means we are concerned about the future.

Human time preference can be described as the rate at which we discount the future compared to the present. We all agree that today is more important than tomorrow- there is a lot that can happen today that completely changes the context of tomorrow, and every individual discounts the future at a different rate than another.

Those with low time preference, for instance, start planning for their child’s university education as soon as the child is born. The future is recognized as important enough, and provision is made today.

Humans with high time preference are not sure from where their child’s next meal will come. The future is uncertain, and therefore, university education is not considered during the actions of the present day.

As humans, we are all individually, communally, and nationally moving on the spectrum of time preference. What determines a person’s time preference? The leading factor is economic freedom.

The more economic freedom a person has, the more likely they are to make decisions that benefit the people around them, because it’s mutually beneficial for their future self.

It follows that countries with high economic freedom have higher prosperity and better social indices, such as increased GDP, increased life expectancy, higher happiness scores in polling, lower corruption and violence, and, importantly, increased income levels for the poorest 10% (heritage.org).

Notably, these countries also have better environmental protection.

Therefore, if we want to lower the time preference of communities for the benefit of biodiversity, we need to increase economic freedom.

People will only protect Nature if they can afford a future where Nature still exists.

Property rights, monetary policy, rule of law, freedom to trade and work, and low levels of bureaucracy and corruption collectively influence our economic freedom.

How could we as citizens then influence economic freedom when governments are largely responsible?

SOLVING CONSERVATION

We need to start using sound money.

When money is abundant, resources become rare; when money is rare, resources become abundant. What do we mean by that?

The natural state of a free market is deflation. Thanks to entrepreneurs and advances in technology, prices fall to the marginal cost of production. New entrants to the market will capture the difference between inputs and sales, enhancing competition and driving down prices.

But why then do our prices continue to rise?

Because the money supply is increasing at a higher rate than the influence of deflationary factors. For this, we can thank central banking and, more specifically, fractional reserve banking. Every time a loan is made, new money enters the financial system. Currency debasement distorts price signals, increases business input costs, and inflates asset prices

What makes this worse is something called the Cantillon Effect. This ensures that those, who receive the newly created money first, benefit at the expense of all others, meaning that rural people living at the environmental interface become poorer as their earnings are eroded and their cost of living increases.

This is the cardinal reason why we see progressive wealth inequality.

An ever-increasing money supply is not needed for an economy to grow; we do not need a central bank-regulated interest rate- all we need is a single divisible monetary unit to run the economy.

Yes, capital may be needed to start a business, but that doesn’t mean new money has to be conjured magically onto a bank’s spreadsheet.

Humans are consumers, and with money that is finite in supply, purchasing power will rise as the amount of goods and services increases. It’s simply math, and the only available form of money that enables us to accurately perform this calculation, is Bitcoin.

Thus, for a community champion like Junior Gabela, or a conservation non-profit organisation, the cost of living or the operational costs will get cheaper should they migrate to a Bitcoin Standard.

Bitcoin’s value proposition is that it is the best savings technology. And only when humans can save, can they start to value everything around them.

WHY IS BITCOIN VITAL FOR CONSERVATION?

The future of biodiversity will be determined by the choices of people at scale, whether it is communities at the wildlife interface, humans harvesting resources on which other species depend, or elected politicians making decisions about land-use.

If we want to spread this philosophy of conservation, then we also need to scale low time preference. People need to value their future, but how can they when their economic energy is being debased by inflation?

When you are struggling to pay rent, transport and food, what does it matter if African Penguins are going extinct. We don’t need birds and grasslands and wetlands in order to survive ourselves- humanity will always engineer an alternative or synthetic solution; that’s why the human species continues to flourish in places where the biodiversity has been eliminated.

But if we all use sound money, that is finite in supply and incorruptible, we can secure our future with productivity. With free market money, prices will fall to the marginal cost of production, and savings will increase in purchasing power.

We can then spend more time enjoying life, and we can value Nature purely for the Cultural Services she offers us, like birding.

WHY DID WE CHOOSE THE NAME “SATOSHI’S SPARROWS”?

The Bitcoin White Paper was published by cypherpunk Satoshi Nakamoto on 31 October 2008, and in 2011 Satoshi disappeared- to this day his identity remains a mystery.

What we do know is that he favoured Austrian economics and despised central banks. He knew that the perfect money needed to be independent of human control, and so he wrote the open-source code for Bitcoin: sound money run on an incorruptible ledger that is maintained by thousands of contributors around the world.

What remains is all the early Bitcoin that he mined. And it serves two purposes: For 16 years no individual, company or nation-state has been able to hack the wallet and move these enormous holdings, proving the networks’s security model of cryptography and proof-of-work. The voluntary protocol has demonstrated anti-fragility and immutability; growing in the abscence of any singlular entity or group, revealing that we have finally separated money from state.

Sparrow Wallet is an open-source, globably reknown, Bitcoin desktop wallet. In a small way, our birding team pays homage to the South African developer that in the spirit of Satoshi, shares it for free with the world for anyone seeking self-sovereignty. Visit sparrowwallet.com.

HOW DOES BITCOIN HELP A BIRD GUIDE?

Junior Gabela is a local legend in Mtunzini, and your best birding asset when visiting Ngoye and Dlinza mistbelt forests, or when searching for local specials such as Palmnut Vulture, Mangrove Kingfisher and Southern Banded Snake Eagle.

But the reality is that the financial system is rigged against him. The only honest way to improve the quality of one’s life is to add value to society, live within your means, and then accumulate financial assets; but what do you do when you can only save in cash, and your money is a melting ice cube?

What do you do when you can’t afford to buy a mortgage, or don’t meet the barriers of entry to get exposure to the Magnifcent 7?

Bitcoin is the most equitable asset available. Now Junior can access the same asset class as a Wall Street banker or a nation-state. Bitcoin doesn’t care what your name is or what you look like, plus it’s permissionless- the protocol for prosperity.

With a smartphone, or even an old school feature phone (thanks to proudly South African machankura.com), anyone can save in the instrument that measures everything else, and everything goes to zero against Bitcoin.

Not only is it the best way to hedge against inflation and migrate one’s economic energy through time, but it is also extremely liquid and portable, and can be used for daily transactions using the Lightning Network.

You can spend it at Pick n Pay (using the blink.sv phone wallet), or at any business on btcmap.org or wedobitcoin.co.za, or you can trade a few satoshis peer-to-peer for ZAR with a friend that’s also stacking.

That’s why we call it Freedom Money.

For awesome birding in KZN, contact Junior Gabela at +27 82 667 3704, and why not send some sats to his Lightning address: juniorgabela@blink.sv

Study Bitcoin.

@ 37fe9853:bcd1b039

yoyoaa

@ fd06f542:8d6d54cd

`relayServer = [ "wss://search.nos.today/", "wss://relay.nostr.band/", ];

relays = [relay for relay in relayServer]

words = "news"

filters = {"kinds":[1,30023],"limit":100,"search":words}

r = RelayPool(relays)

r.connect(5)

def handler_event(event): dt_object = datetime.datetime.fromtimestamp(event['created_at']) log.blue(dt_object.strftime('%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S'),False) print(event['content']) print(event['tags'])

subs = r.subscribe(filters) subs.on("EVENT",handler_event)`

这里主要解决的问题是 ：服务器的选择，不是所有的服务器都支持搜索的。 第二， filter的写法，这个其实普通的去填写就可以。 然后订阅后，就有结果了。

过一段时间 nostrhttp会增加这个功能。

@ 62033ff8:e4471203

收录的内容中 kind=1的部分，实话说 质量不高。 所以我增加了kind=30023 长文的article，但是更新的太少，多个relays 的服务器也没有多少长文。

所有搜索nostr如果需要产生价值，需要有高质量的文章和新闻。 而且现在有很多机器人的文章充满着浪费空间的作用，其他作用都用不上。

https://www.duozhutuan.com 目前放的是给搜索引擎提供搜索的原材料。没有做UI给人类浏览。所以看上去是粗糙的。 我并没有打算去做一个发microblog的 web客户端，那类的客户端太多了。

我觉得nostr社区需要解决的还是应用。如果仅仅是microblog 感觉有点够呛

幸运的是npub.pro 建站这样的，我觉得有点意思。

yakihonne 智能widget 也有意思

我做的TaskQ5 我自己在用了。分布式的任务系统，也挺好的。

@ 23b0e2f8:d8af76fc

Necessário

• Um Android que você não use mais (a câmera deve estar funcionando).
• Um cartão microSD (opcional, usado apenas uma vez).
• Um dispositivo para acompanhar seus fundos (provavelmente você já tem um).

Algumas coisas que você precisa saber

• O dispositivo servirá como um assinador. Qualquer movimentação só será efetuada após ser assinada por ele.
• O cartão microSD será usado para transferir o APK do Electrum e garantir que o aparelho não terá contato com outras fontes de dados externas após sua formatação. Contudo, é possível usar um cabo USB para o mesmo propósito.
• A ideia é deixar sua chave privada em um dispositivo offline, que ficará desligado em 99% do tempo. Você poderá acompanhar seus fundos em outro dispositivo conectado à internet, como seu celular ou computador pessoal.

---

O tutorial será dividido em dois módulos:

• Módulo 1 - Criando uma carteira fria/assinador.
• Módulo 2 - Configurando um dispositivo para visualizar seus fundos e assinando transações com o assinador.

---

No final, teremos:

• Uma carteira fria que também servirá como assinador.
• Um dispositivo para acompanhar os fundos da carteira.

---

Módulo 1 - Criando uma carteira fria/assinador

1. Baixe o APK do Electrum na aba de downloads em https://electrum.org/. Fique à vontade para verificar as assinaturas do software, garantindo sua autenticidade.

2. Formate o cartão microSD e coloque o APK do Electrum nele. Caso não tenha um cartão microSD, pule este passo.

1. Retire os chips e acessórios do aparelho que será usado como assinador, formate-o e aguarde a inicialização.

1. Durante a inicialização, pule a etapa de conexão ao Wi-Fi e rejeite todas as solicitações de conexão. Após isso, você pode desinstalar aplicativos desnecessários, pois precisará apenas do Electrum. Certifique-se de que Wi-Fi, Bluetooth e dados móveis estejam desligados. Você também pode ativar o modo avião.\ (Curiosidade: algumas pessoas optam por abrir o aparelho e danificar a antena do Wi-Fi/Bluetooth, impossibilitando essas funcionalidades.)

1. Insira o cartão microSD com o APK do Electrum no dispositivo e instale-o. Será necessário permitir instalações de fontes não oficiais.

1. No Electrum, crie uma carteira padrão e gere suas palavras-chave (seed). Anote-as em um local seguro. Caso algo aconteça com seu assinador, essas palavras permitirão o acesso aos seus fundos novamente. (Aqui entra seu método pessoal de backup.)

---

Módulo 2 - Configurando um dispositivo para visualizar seus fundos e assinando transações com o assinador.

1. Criar uma carteira somente leitura em outro dispositivo, como seu celular ou computador pessoal, é uma etapa bastante simples. Para este tutorial, usaremos outro smartphone Android com Electrum. Instale o Electrum a partir da aba de downloads em https://electrum.org/ ou da própria Play Store. (ATENÇÃO: O Electrum não existe oficialmente para iPhone. Desconfie se encontrar algum.)

2. Após instalar o Electrum, crie uma carteira padrão, mas desta vez escolha a opção Usar uma chave mestra.

1. Agora, no assinador que criamos no primeiro módulo, exporte sua chave pública: vá em Carteira > Detalhes da carteira > Compartilhar chave mestra pública.

1. Escaneie o QR gerado da chave pública com o dispositivo de consulta. Assim, ele poderá acompanhar seus fundos, mas sem permissão para movimentá-los.

2. Para receber fundos, envie Bitcoin para um dos endereços gerados pela sua carteira: Carteira > Addresses/Coins.

3. Para movimentar fundos, crie uma transação no dispositivo de consulta. Como ele não possui a chave privada, será necessário assiná-la com o dispositivo assinador.

1. No assinador, escaneie a transação não assinada, confirme os detalhes, assine e compartilhe. Será gerado outro QR, desta vez com a transação já assinada.

1. No dispositivo de consulta, escaneie o QR da transação assinada e transmita-a para a rede.

---

Conclusão

Pontos positivos do setup:

• Simplicidade: Basta um dispositivo Android antigo.
• Flexibilidade: Funciona como uma ótima carteira fria, ideal para holders.

Pontos negativos do setup:

• Padronização: Não utiliza seeds no padrão BIP-39, você sempre precisará usar o electrum.
• Interface: A aparência do Electrum pode parecer antiquada para alguns usuários.

Nesse ponto, temos uma carteira fria que também serve para assinar transações. O fluxo de assinar uma transação se torna: Gerar uma transação não assinada > Escanear o QR da transação não assinada > Conferir e assinar essa transação com o assinador > Gerar QR da transação assinada > Escanear a transação assinada com qualquer outro dispositivo que possa transmiti-la para a rede.

Como alguns devem saber, uma transação assinada de Bitcoin é praticamente impossível de ser fraudada. Em um cenário catastrófico, você pode mesmo que sem internet, repassar essa transação assinada para alguém que tenha acesso à rede por qualquer meio de comunicação. Mesmo que não queiramos que isso aconteça um dia, esse setup acaba por tornar essa prática possível.

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@ a012dc82:6458a70d

Table Of Content

• Unexpected Findings in a Prison Raid

• The Tocorón Prison: A Criminal Haven

• The Lucrative World of Bitcoin Mining

• A Growing Trend in Latin America

• Conclusion

• FAQ

In the ever-evolving world of crime, criminals are constantly seeking innovative ways to further their illicit gains. The recent Venezuelan prison raid offers a startling glimpse into this world, revealing an unexpected intersection between organized crime and the realm of cryptocurrency. This article delves into the surprising findings of the raid, the notorious Tocorón prison, the lucrative allure of Bitcoin mining, and the emerging trend of cryptocurrency in the Latin American criminal landscape.

Unexpected Findings in a Prison Raid

In a recent raid on the Tocorón prison in Aragua state, Venezuelan authorities made an unexpected discovery. Alongside the anticipated confiscation of rocket launchers, grenades, and bullets, they stumbled upon Bitcoin mining machines. This operation, which involved a staggering 11,000 troops, was aimed at dismantling the country's most formidable organized crime group. While weapons were a predictable find, the presence of Bitcoin miners was a revelation that caught many off guard. Videos circulating on social media platforms showcased buildings filled with these machines, emphasizing the scale of the operation. The juxtaposition of traditional weapons with high-tech mining equipment highlights the adaptability and resourcefulness of criminal organizations, demonstrating their willingness to embrace new technologies to further their objectives.

The Tocorón Prison: A Criminal Haven

The Tocorón prison, located in the heart of Venezuela, has long been notorious for being under the control of criminals. In fact, it had been run by them for years, turning it into a veritable fortress of illicit activities. This prison wasn't just a place of confinement; it boasted amenities like a swimming pool and even a mini zoo, painting a picture of a facility that was more a criminal fortress than a penitentiary. Such luxuries are unheard of in conventional prisons, suggesting a level of autonomy and power that these criminals wielded. Venezuelan prisons, in general, have a reputation for being perilously overcrowded and hazardous, often leading to violent confrontations. This particular raid marked the first time Venezuelan authorities took decisive action against the dreaded Tren de Aragua, a criminal organization with a hand in various illicit activities, ranging from drug and human trafficking to extortion, both within Venezuela and in neighboring countries. The audacity of such a group to operate so openly speaks volumes about the challenges faced by Venezuelan law enforcement.

The Lucrative World of Bitcoin Mining

Bitcoin mining, for the uninitiated, might seem like a complex digital process, but its implications are very tangible. Mining machines play a pivotal role in minting new coins and ensuring the security of the Bitcoin blockchain. Engaging in this energy-intensive process requires a significant amount of electricity, often leading to concerns about its environmental impact. However, the rewards, in the form of new cryptocurrency, can be substantial. A recent report from Coin Metrics highlighted that Bitcoin miners raked in a whopping $184 million from transaction fees in a mere three months, from April to June. This lucrative venture offers a glimpse into why criminals might be drawn to such operations, given the potential for immense profits. The decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies also provides a level of anonymity, making it an attractive option for those wishing to operate outside the purview of traditional financial systems.

A Growing Trend in Latin America

The discovery of Bitcoin mining machines in the Tocorón prison isn't an isolated incident. Just two weeks prior, Chilean police uncovered a drug trafficking ring in Santiago that was operating a Bitcoin mining venture. This suggests a growing trend among criminals in Latin America, who seem to be exploring the lucrative world of cryptocurrency. As the digital currency gains traction globally, it's evident that the criminal underworld is also keen on capitalizing on its potential. The integration of cryptocurrency into criminal operations represents a new frontier in crime, challenging law enforcement agencies to adapt and develop new strategies to combat this emerging threat.

Conclusion

The Venezuelan prison raid serves as a stark reminder of the intricate and ever-changing nature of organized crime. As the lines between traditional criminal activities and the digital world blur, it's crucial for authorities to stay one step ahead. The fusion of organized crime with the world of cryptocurrency underscores the need for continued vigilance and adaptability in the face of evolving criminal methodologies.

FAQs

What was discovered during the Venezuelan prison raid? Along with weapons like rocket launchers and grenades, authorities found Bitcoin mining machines in the Tocorón prison.

Who controlled the Tocorón prison? The prison had been under the control of criminals for years, notably the Tren de Aragua crime group.

Why is Bitcoin mining significant? Bitcoin mining is the process of minting new coins and securing the Bitcoin blockchain. It can be highly lucrative, with miners earning substantial amounts from transaction fees.

Is cryptocurrency involvement a trend in Latin American crime? Yes, there's a growing trend among criminals in Latin America to integrate cryptocurrency into their operations, as seen in both Venezuela and Chile.

How are authorities responding to this trend? The Venezuelan raid signifies a proactive approach by authorities, but the blending of crime with cryptocurrency highlights the need for continued vigilance and adaptability.

That's all for today

If you want more, be sure to follow us on:

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.

@ 3f770d65:7a745b24

New Year’s resolutions often feel boring and repetitive. Most revolve around getting in shape, eating healthier, or giving up alcohol. While the idea is interesting—using the start of a new calendar year as a catalyst for change—it also seems unnecessary. Why wait for a specific date to make a change? If you want to improve something in your life, you can just do it. You don’t need an excuse.

That’s why I’ve never been drawn to the idea of making a list of resolutions. If I wanted a change, I’d make it happen, without worrying about the calendar. At least, that’s how I felt until now—when, for once, the timing actually gave me a real reason to embrace the idea of New Year’s resolutions.

Enter Olas.

If you're a visual creator, you've likely experienced the relentless grind of building a following on platforms like Instagram—endless doomscrolling, ever-changing algorithms, and the constant pressure to stay relevant. But what if there was a better way? Olas is a Nostr-powered alternative to Instagram that prioritizes community, creativity, and value-for-value exchanges. It's a game changer.

Instagram’s failings are well-known. Its algorithm often dictates whose content gets seen, leaving creators frustrated and powerless. Monetization hurdles further alienate creators who are forced to meet arbitrary follower thresholds before earning anything. Additionally, the platform’s design fosters endless comparisons and exposure to negativity, which can take a significant toll on mental health.

Instagram’s algorithms are notorious for keeping users hooked, often at the cost of their mental health. I've spoken about this extensively, most recently at Nostr Valley, explaining how legacy social media is bad for you. You might find yourself scrolling through content that leaves you feeling anxious or drained. Olas takes a fresh approach, replacing "doomscrolling" with "bloomscrolling." This is a common theme across the Nostr ecosystem. The lack of addictive rage algorithms allows the focus to shift to uplifting, positive content that inspires rather than exhausts.

Monetization is another area where Olas will set itself apart. On Instagram, creators face arbitrary barriers to earning—needing thousands of followers and adhering to restrictive platform rules. Olas eliminates these hurdles by leveraging the Nostr protocol, enabling creators to earn directly through value-for-value exchanges. Fans can support their favorite artists instantly, with no delays or approvals required. The plan is to enable a brand new Olas account that can get paid instantly, with zero followers - that's wild.

Olas addresses these issues head-on. Operating on the open Nostr protocol, it removes centralized control over one's content’s reach or one's ability to monetize. With transparent, configurable algorithms, and a community that thrives on mutual support, Olas creates an environment where creators can grow and succeed without unnecessary barriers.

Join me on my New Year's resolution. Join me on Olas and take part in the #Olas365 challenge! It’s a simple yet exciting way to share your content. The challenge is straightforward: post at least one photo per day on Olas (though you’re welcome to share more!).

Download on iOS.

Download on Android or download via Zapstore.

Let's make waves together.

@ da0b9bc3:4e30a4a9

Hello Stackers!

Welcome on into the ~Music Corner of the Saloon!

A place where we Talk Music. Share Tracks. Zap Sats.

So stay a while and listen.

🚨Don't forget to check out the pinned items in the territory homepage! You can always find the latest weeklies there!🚨

🚨Subscribe to the territory to ensure you never miss a post! 🚨

originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/850896

@ e6817453:b0ac3c39

The Rise of Graph RAGs and the Quest for Data Quality

As we enter a new year, it’s impossible to ignore the boom of retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems, particularly those leveraging graph-based approaches. The previous year saw a surge in advancements and discussions about Graph RAGs, driven by their potential to enhance large language models (LLMs), reduce hallucinations, and deliver more reliable outputs. Let’s dive into the trends, challenges, and strategies for making the most of Graph RAGs in artificial intelligence.

Booming Interest in Graph RAGs

Graph RAGs have dominated the conversation in AI circles. With new research papers and innovations emerging weekly, it’s clear that this approach is reshaping the landscape. These systems, especially those developed by tech giants like Microsoft, demonstrate how graphs can:

• Enhance LLM Outputs: By grounding responses in structured knowledge, graphs significantly reduce hallucinations.
• Support Complex Queries: Graphs excel at managing linked and connected data, making them ideal for intricate problem-solving.

Conferences on linked and connected data have increasingly focused on Graph RAGs, underscoring their central role in modern AI systems. However, the excitement around this technology has brought critical questions to the forefront: How do we ensure the quality of the graphs we’re building, and are they genuinely aligned with our needs?

Data Quality: The Foundation of Effective Graphs

A high-quality graph is the backbone of any successful RAG system. Constructing these graphs from unstructured data requires attention to detail and rigorous processes. Here’s why:

• Richness of Entities: Effective retrieval depends on graphs populated with rich, detailed entities.
• Freedom from Hallucinations: Poorly constructed graphs amplify inaccuracies rather than mitigating them.

Without robust data quality, even the most sophisticated Graph RAGs become ineffective. As a result, the focus must shift to refining the graph construction process. Improving data strategy and ensuring meticulous data preparation is essential to unlock the full potential of Graph RAGs.

Hybrid Graph RAGs and Variations

While standard Graph RAGs are already transformative, hybrid models offer additional flexibility and power. Hybrid RAGs combine structured graph data with other retrieval mechanisms, creating systems that:

• Handle diverse data sources with ease.
• Offer improved adaptability to complex queries.

Exploring these variations can open new avenues for AI systems, particularly in domains requiring structured and unstructured data processing.

Ontology: The Key to Graph Construction Quality

Ontology — defining how concepts relate within a knowledge domain — is critical for building effective graphs. While this might sound abstract, it’s a well-established field blending philosophy, engineering, and art. Ontology engineering provides the framework for:

• Defining Relationships: Clarifying how concepts connect within a domain.
• Validating Graph Structures: Ensuring constructed graphs are logically sound and align with domain-specific realities.

Traditionally, ontologists — experts in this discipline — have been integral to large enterprises and research teams. However, not every team has access to dedicated ontologists, leading to a significant challenge: How can teams without such expertise ensure the quality of their graphs?

How to Build Ontology Expertise in a Startup Team

For startups and smaller teams, developing ontology expertise may seem daunting, but it is achievable with the right approach:

1. Assign a Knowledge Champion: Identify a team member with a strong analytical mindset and give them time and resources to learn ontology engineering.
2. Provide Training: Invest in courses, workshops, or certifications in knowledge graph and ontology creation.
3. Leverage Partnerships: Collaborate with academic institutions, domain experts, or consultants to build initial frameworks.
4. Utilize Tools: Introduce ontology development tools like Protégé, OWL, or SHACL to simplify the creation and validation process.
5. Iterate with Feedback: Continuously refine ontologies through collaboration with domain experts and iterative testing.

So, it is not always affordable for a startup to have a dedicated oncologist or knowledge engineer in a team, but you could involve consulters or build barefoot experts.

You could read about barefoot experts in my article :

Even startups can achieve robust and domain-specific ontology frameworks by fostering in-house expertise.

How to Find or Create Ontologies

For teams venturing into Graph RAGs, several strategies can help address the ontology gap:

1. Leverage Existing Ontologies: Many industries and domains already have open ontologies. For instance:

2. Public Knowledge Graphs: Resources like Wikipedia’s graph offer a wealth of structured knowledge.

3. Industry Standards: Enterprises such as Siemens have invested in creating and sharing ontologies specific to their fields.

4. Business Framework Ontology (BFO): A valuable resource for enterprises looking to define business processes and structures.

5. Build In-House Expertise: If budgets allow, consider hiring knowledge engineers or providing team members with the resources and time to develop expertise in ontology creation.

6. Utilize LLMs for Ontology Construction: Interestingly, LLMs themselves can act as a starting point for ontology development:

7. Prompt-Based Extraction: LLMs can generate draft ontologies by leveraging their extensive training on graph data.

8. Domain Expert Refinement: Combine LLM-generated structures with insights from domain experts to create tailored ontologies.

Parallel Ontology and Graph Extraction

An emerging approach involves extracting ontologies and graphs in parallel. While this can streamline the process, it presents challenges such as:

• Detecting Hallucinations: Differentiating between genuine insights and AI-generated inaccuracies.
• Ensuring Completeness: Ensuring no critical concepts are overlooked during extraction.

Teams must carefully validate outputs to ensure reliability and accuracy when employing this parallel method.

LLMs as Ontologists

While traditionally dependent on human expertise, ontology creation is increasingly supported by LLMs. These models, trained on vast amounts of data, possess inherent knowledge of many open ontologies and taxonomies. Teams can use LLMs to:

• Generate Skeleton Ontologies: Prompt LLMs with domain-specific information to draft initial ontology structures.
• Validate and Refine Ontologies: Collaborate with domain experts to refine these drafts, ensuring accuracy and relevance.

However, for validation and graph construction, formal tools such as OWL, SHACL, and RDF should be prioritized over LLMs to minimize hallucinations and ensure robust outcomes.

Final Thoughts: Unlocking the Power of Graph RAGs

The rise of Graph RAGs underscores a simple but crucial correlation: improving graph construction and data quality directly enhances retrieval systems. To truly harness this power, teams must invest in understanding ontologies, building quality graphs, and leveraging both human expertise and advanced AI tools.

As we move forward, the interplay between Graph RAGs and ontology engineering will continue to shape the future of AI. Whether through adopting existing frameworks or exploring innovative uses of LLMs, the path to success lies in a deep commitment to data quality and domain understanding.

Have you explored these technologies in your work? Share your experiences and insights — and stay tuned for more discussions on ontology extraction and its role in AI advancements. Cheers to a year of innovation!

@ 1cb14ab3:95d52462

Stunning beaches, ancient temples as far as the eye can see, and lush, green mountainsides that will leave you in awe—Myanmar is a destination you NEED to add to your bucket list. This guide offers the perfect one-month itinerary to explore the hidden gems of this incredible country.

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The Itinerary

Days 1-2:

Fly into Yangon Airport. Settle in and explore the vibrant sights and flavors of the city.

Day 3:

Take an overnight bus south to the coastal city of Myeik.

Days 4-8:

Go island hopping around the Mergui Archipelago—remote beaches and untouched islands await.

Day 9:

Travel to Dawei. Find a cozy place to stay and relax for the evening.

Days 10-13:

Rent a motorcycle and explore the stunning Dawei Peninsula. Soak up the sun on pristine beaches.

Day 14:

Head to Hpa An. Check into a hotel and enjoy a sunset beer.

Days 15-18:

Discover the limestone mountains, caves, and farmlands of Hpa An.

Day 19:

Travel to Bagan. The journey may be bumpy, but the destination is worth it.

Days 20-23:

Explore the breathtaking temples of Bagan. Sunrise hot air balloon rides are a must.

Day 24:

Head to Lake Inle. Settle into your accommodation and dine by the water.

Days 25-26:

Cruise around Lake Inle by boat. Immerse yourself in the local culture and capture the iconic fishermen in action.

Days 27-28:

Visit Mandalay to experience city life from a Burmese perspective.

Days 29-30:

Return to Yangon for a final exploration before flying home.

---

Days 1-2: Arrival in Yangon

Myanmar's largest city is a bustling hub filled with shops, activities, and incredible food. The rapid development of this once-isolated country is evident everywhere you look.

If you are flying internationally: Yangon will most likely be the cheapest and most easily accessible destination to begin the trip.

If you are coming from Thailand: I would recommend altering the itinerary and going straight to Myeik via land border then working your way up the country from there.

Bogyoke Aung San Market

If shopping is your thing, this place is a haven for local treasures. Hundreds of stalls line the market and surrounding alleyways containing everything from art, sculptures, jewelry, antiquities, and fabrics. I spent a few hours here before jumping onto the nearby circular train for a loop around the city. There are a few small shops to get a bite to eat if you are hungry.

Remember that this itinerary will land you back in Yangon at the end of the trip if you see something you want to buy and don’t feel like lugging it around for a month.

Yangon Circular Train

Easily one of the most fascinating experiences of the trip is riding the Yangon Circular Train around the city for a true look at how the locals live. The train is old, slow, and packed with locals commuting to and from work. The doors are wide open, allowing you to hang your feet outside and soak in all of the sights afar. This is one of the best ways to get a true glimpse into the culture and day-to-day life of the Burmese people.

Be sure to speak with a train operator before getting on to make sure the entire loop is operational. When I went, construction stopped the train about 45 minutes into the loop, forcing us to get a taxi back to the downtown area. The full loop will take over 2 hours to complete. On the train, you can find vendors and hawkers selling little things such as water, nuts, and fruit. I’d suggest eating before jumping on.

Shwedagon Pagoda

Upon walking up the steep and lengthy stairway to the Shwedagon Pagoda lies Yangon’s most famous attraction. The 99-meter gold-coated pagoda can be seen all around the city but is best enjoyed up close. This is a must-visit during your time in the capital. I went about an hour before sunset and stayed well into the night. Sunset from the hill it sits atop is spectacular, and the contrast of the pagoda between day and night is striking.

Make sure to bring socks and a bag, as shoes are not allowed, and you will need to carry them or leave them at the door. After visiting, you can take a short walk to the Sky Bar in the Yangon International Hotel overlooking the pagoda. This is a wonderful place to enjoy a nice dinner and drink, ideal for soaking up more of that luxurious golden pagoda.

---

Day 3: Bus to Myeik

The longest stretch of the trip—but well worth the sights to come. I took a 22-hour overnight bus and opted for the slight upcharge to take the VIP bus. This option is absolutely worth it. Equipped with A/C, comfortable reclining seats, and stops for three meals, it was a cheaper alternative to the costly domestic flight from Yangon and allowed me to see much more of the country.

I had a surprisingly good sleep and would do it again in a heartbeat. You can also fly directly to Myeik, but flights are infrequent and considerably more expensive. The bus I took arrived in Myeik around noon the next day, leaving me plenty of time to check into the hotel and wander around the city a bit before sunset. There weren’t many buses heading down here, so I’d recommend checking for tickets as early as possible when you arrive in Yangon. Alternatively, if you’re coming from Thailand, you can rearrange the itinerary and begin your Myanmar trip in Myeik by crossing from Thailand via bus at the land border.

---

Days 4-8: Island Hopping in Myeik

The city of Myeik has no accessible beaches, so you’ll need to book an island-hopping tour to fully appreciate the surrounding Mergui Archipelago. While the city itself doesn’t offer much in terms of entertainment, the beaches and crystal-clear waters you’ll encounter on an island-hopping tour are truly unparalleled. Your trip to Myeik will be unforgettable and is an experience you shouldn’t miss.

There are several travel companies offering island-hopping tours, ranging from single-day trips to 14-day excursions. While you can book ahead, I found it quite easy to arrange a trip through an agency in the city. I opted for a three-day, two-night tour with Life Seeing Tours, and it was fantastic. They provided food, tents, and transportation—just bring a swimsuit and a change of clothes, and you’re ready to spend a few nights exploring the islands.

---

Day 9: Bus to Dawei

Another travel day! This time, you’ll take a shorter bus ride heading north to Dawei. The journey takes about six hours, and tickets can be purchased from one of the travel agencies in Myeik. From what I gathered, there’s only one bus per day on this route, and it departs early in the morning.

Be prepared to wake up around 4 AM and make your way back to the same bus station where you arrived. It’s a good idea to arrange transportation to the station the night before—your hotel can help you book a ride for that morning.

---

Days 10-13: Motorcycling the Dawei Peninsula

Dawei boasts some of the most stunning coastlines and beaches in the country. While most of these beaches are only accessible by motorcycle, there are a few small bed-and-breakfast-style accommodations at the southern end of the peninsula that offer direct beach access.

If you’d prefer not to travel 2–3 hours each day from the city, I recommend staying in that area. You can rent a motorcycle from several places in the city and ride down to the B&Bs near the beaches for an overnight stay. This approach lets you enjoy the remote, lush, and scenic motorcycle journey while avoiding the daily commute to the beaches.

Grandfather Beach

Surrounded by mountains and vibrant orange dirt, getting here can be a bit tricky. You’ll need to navigate a steep, loose hill to reach the area. I recommend arriving near low tide, as the beach and surrounding shops flood around noon, making the descent a wet and challenging experience. Be prepared to remove your shoes and walk through knee-deep water to access the beach. This is one of the more popular spots for locals and was among the few beaches I visited that actually had people.

Tizit Beach

When we arrived at Tizit Beach, there was no one else around except for the locals. The sand here is soft, and the ocean is pristine. A motorcycle is necessary to access this beach, but the breathtaking views from the mountain pass make the journey entirely worthwhile. The sand near the shore is firm enough to ride on, creating unforgettable moments of cruising along the beach at sunset.

---

Day 14: Bus to Hpa An

One of the shorter bus rides on this trip, the fare is around $20, and it takes approximately 5 bumpy hours. Once you arrive in Hpa An, there are plenty of hostels and hotels to choose from. I booked mine on Hostelworld the night before, but you should have no trouble finding a place to stay on the day of your arrival if needed.

---

Days 15-18: Hpa An: Farmland, Caves, and Mountains

Hpa An offers a stark contrast to the beaches and cities encountered so far on the trip. Surrounded by towering limestone mountains and lush green farmland, the region has a peaceful, rural charm. There are several caves, lakes, and one of my favorite sunrise hikes of the journey.

While I have a few recommendations and must-visit spots, Hpa An is best explored without a strict plan. A central theme of this trip has been the freedom of hopping on a motorcycle and riding wherever your heart desires.

Mount Zwegabin Sunrise Hike

Hiking Mount Zwegabin for sunrise is a must-do during your time in Hpa An. The mountain is located a short ride from town, about 40 minutes by motorcycle. The hike to the summit took around 35 minutes at a brisk pace, so you’ll need to leave around 4 AM to catch the sunrise, depending on the season. The highlight of the hike is the final ascent up the floating stairs to reach the peak. Be sure to have your camera ready and take in the breathtaking views.

Kyauk Kalat Pagoda

This is one of those places that leaves you in awe, wondering how such a unique landscape can exist. Easily one of the most unusual rock formations I’ve encountered, it’s a fantastic spot to watch the sunset. A winding staircase leads up the rock to the top of the temple, making it a great place to spend a couple of hours.

Saddar Cave

Filled with bats, stunning limestone formations, and statues, this short cave walk provides a refreshing escape from the heat. The path takes about 20 minutes to explore, leading to a beautiful lake at the back. Grab a drink, relax for a while, and take a small paddle boat back to the entrance for a memorable experience.

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Day 19: Bus to Bagan

A travel day heading north. This part of the trip is hot, bumpy, and slow, so be prepared for a longer journey than expected. Bagan has plenty of hotels and hostels, but I’d recommend booking accommodations in advance, as it’s a popular tourist destination. You’ll need to purchase an entry ticket for the area, as it’s a protected national park, but the bus driver should assist in sorting it out before you enter the park.

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Days 20-23: Chasing Pagodas in Bagan

Once you’ve settled into your accommodation in Bagan, the best way to explore the vast area is by pedal bike or scooter. All the scooters available for rent are electric, helping to reduce noise pollution—a refreshing change from the loud gas-powered vehicles you’ll be used to from the first half of your trip. There’s no right or wrong way to experience Bagan. The park is enormous, with thousands of pagodas scattered throughout. Most of them are open for exploration, with a few offering rooftop access (though that is being restricted more recently).

You could spend weeks here and still not see all the pagodas up close. Bagan is divided into a new town and an old town—most of the backpacker-friendly hostels are located in Old Town. You’ll find a handful of restaurants, but I often ate at my hostel or from local food carts. Several hostels and hotels offer outdoor pools, which are a great perk, especially depending on the time of year you visit. I highly recommend simply wandering the area freely, but here are a few top pagodas and experiences not to miss during your time in Bagan.

Hot Air Ballooning

The top attraction in Bagan is undoubtedly the daily hot air balloon tours. Almost everyone who experiences it claims it’s a must-do. I chose to watch from the ground, as the cost of a tour is quite expensive. If you decide to go for it, be sure to set aside a few hundred USD for the trip. From what I’ve heard, you’ll wake up around 4:30 AM and head to the take-off location, returning by around 9:00 AM.

Sunset Boat Cruise

Be sure to spend at least one evening on a slow cruise down the Ayeyarwady River. It’s a wonderful way to enjoy distant views of some of the pagodas and relax after a long day of exploration. Several companies offer these cruises at very affordable prices. Our boat included snacks, drinks, and even alcohol. The trips range from half an hour to two hours. Book through your hotel for convenience.

The Big Three Temples

With over a thousand pagodas to explore in Bagan, there are three main structures that hold significant importance to locals: Shwesandaw, Thatbyinnyu, and Shwezigon. Be sure to make time to visit these iconic pagodas during your trip—you’re likely to come across them without even trying.

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Day 24: Bus to Kalaw

Long-distance buses run the route multiple times a day, with the overnight option being the most popular. I recommend checking with a travel agent in Bagan to book your tickets before heading to the bus stop

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Day 25-26: Relaxing at Lake Inle

These two days take us to the stunning Lake Inle, located just outside the city of Kalaw. Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to make it to Lake Inle during this trip, but everyone I spoke to highly recommended not missing it. The lake is known for its breathtaking scenery, traditional Intha stilt houses, and the unique leg-rowing fishermen.

From what I’ve heard and seen through photos, the calm waters, floating gardens, and vibrant markets make Lake Inle a truly unforgettable destination. Huge thanks to my friend Toby for sharing those beautiful pictures and giving me a glimpse of what I missed!

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Day 27-28: Mandalay City

Mandalay is a fast-paced city with less tourism compared to other parts of the country. It offers a fascinating glimpse into the daily lives of the Burmese people, away from the crowds typically found in Yangon. There are several culturally significant monasteries and temples within the city limits, as well as vibrant markets perfect for shopping and exploring. Mandalay Hill is a great spot for a brisk hike and offers stunning views of the city and sunset on one of your nights. You could also visit the Mandalay Marionettes Theater to catch a local show showcasing Myanmar’s rich history and culture.

As for me, I mainly wandered the city without specific destinations in mind. Since this is the last stop before returning to Yangon, you might not feel as inclined to spend too much time here, but there are definitely some interesting sights worth exploring.

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Day 29-30: Return to Yangon

The final two days of the trip are a return to where it all began. The bus from Mandalay to Yangon takes about 8 hours. Alternatively, Mandalay has a large international airport if you prefer to fly, depending on your next destination.

If you return to Yangon, you’ll have plenty of time to revisit the markets and pick up any final souvenirs or trinkets you might want to take home. Enjoy these last couple of days, savor some delicious food, and take the time to reflect on the incredible month of experiences you’ve had.

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Concluding Thoughts

Your month-long journey through Myanmar is bound to be an unforgettable adventure, filled with stunning landscapes, rich culture, and warm hospitality. From the serene beaches of Ngapali to the ancient wonders of Bagan, and the tranquil beauty of Lake Inle to the bustling streets of Yangon and Mandalay, each destination offers its own unique charm and insight into Myanmar’s diverse culture.

The highlights of your trip—exploring historic pagodas, witnessing breathtaking sunrises, and embracing the freedom of riding a motorcycle—are sure to stay with you. Myanmar’s blend of natural beauty, vibrant traditions, and friendly locals makes every moment special. Despite the occasional long and bumpy journeys, the sense of discovery and connection with the people and places makes the experience truly worthwhile.

As you reflect on your journey, you’ll likely feel grateful for the memories, experiences, and the chance to explore a country that feels both timeless and unique. Myanmar’s beauty lies not just in its landscapes but in the people who call it home. You’ll leave with a deeper appreciation for the warmth and resilience of its people and a desire to return and explore even more of this enchanting land.

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Update: Unfortunately as of this time (June 2021) Myanmar is experiencing major political and civil unrest. Taken from the advice of friends on the ground there— I can not recommend traveling to Myanmar at the time of writing. Pray for Myanmar!

Update 2: The political situation in Myanmar has escalated (July 2022). Travel is still not recommended.

Update 3: As of 2025, some tourists have reported that travel is doable. However many governments still have do not travel advisories. DYOR.

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Other Myanmar Guides:

The Top 3 Hidden Beaches of Myanmar: A Guide to Tizit, Grandfather, and Mergui

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Store

Travel Guides

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Originally Published June 15, 2021. Edited with Nostr friendly images on 1/5/2025

@ 141daddd:1df80a3f

In the world of social media, the term "echo chamber" often carries a negative connotation. It’s associated with reinforcing biases, limiting perspectives, and fostering division. However, on platforms like Nostr, echo chambers take on a new, empowering dimension—one that allows users to consciously curate their own feeds and use them as tools for self-improvement and personal growth.

The Power of Voluntary Echo Chambers

Unlike traditional social networks, where algorithms dictate what you see based on corporate interests or ad revenue, Nostr puts the power back in your hands. You choose the accounts you follow, the content you consume, and ultimately, the ideas that shape your thinking. This creates a voluntary echo chamber, one that reflects your personal interests and goals rather than the priorities of a centralized algorithm.

This concept ties into psychological principles like autosuggestion or self-programming. By surrounding yourself with content that aligns with your aspirations, you can subtly influence your thoughts and behaviors over time. For example: - Following accounts that discuss Bitcoin might deepen your understanding of it even if you are normally lazy to do your own research. - Subscribing to content about meat eating or lifting could motivate you to adopt those habits. - Engaging with posts about self-discipline or personal development might inspire you to take actionable steps toward your goals.

Scrolling through your Nostr feed becomes more than a passive activity—it becomes a form of self-conditioning. Each post you see reinforces the values and ideas you’ve chosen to prioritize, nudging you toward the person you want to become.

A Contrast with Traditional Social Media

On traditional platforms like Facebook, Instagram, or X, the feed is curated by algorithms designed to maximize engagement. These algorithms often prioritize sensationalism, controversy, or content that serves the platform’s business model. As a result, your brain is programmed not by your own goals, but by the interests of the corporation behind the platform.

This distinction is crucial. On Nostr, you are the algorithm. You decide what influences you, creating a space where your feed becomes a tool for self-improvement rather than a source of manipulation.

Echo Chambers as Positive Spaces

The idea of an echo chamber isn’t inherently negative. In fact, any group or community built around shared interests can be considered an echo chamber. Think about: - A sports club, where everyone encourages each other to train harder and improve. - A book club, where members discuss ideas that expand their intellectual horizons. - A support group, where people share experiences and motivate each other to overcome challenges.

These are all examples of echo chambers that people enter voluntarily, and they often lead to positive outcomes. The same principle applies to Nostr. By carefully curating your feed, you can create a digital space that motivates, educates, and inspires you.

The Key to Beneficial Echo Chambers

The difference between a harmful and a beneficial echo chamber lies in intentionality. On Nostr, you have the freedom to: 1. Choose your influences: Follow accounts that align with your values and goals. 2. Avoid manipulation: Stay clear of (mute) content that doesn’t serve your interests. 3. Adapt over time: As your priorities evolve, so can your feed.

This level of control allows you to use echo chambers as a force for good—a way to program your mind for success, growth, and self-improvement.

Final Thoughts

Nostr represents a paradigm shift in how we interact with social media. By giving users the power to create their own echo chambers, it transforms the concept from something limiting into something liberating. Your feed becomes a reflection of your aspirations, a tool for self-programming, and a space for growth.

So, the next time someone criticizes echo chambers, remember: when entered voluntarily and curated intentionally, they can be one of the most powerful tools for personal development. On Nostr, the choice is yours.

@ a4a6b584:1e05b95b

The Four-Layer Framework

Layer 1: Zoom Out

Start by looking at the big picture. What’s the subject about, and why does it matter? Focus on the overarching ideas and how they fit together. Think of this as the 30,000-foot view—it’s about understanding the "why" and "how" before diving into the "what."

Example: If you’re learning programming, start by understanding that it’s about giving logical instructions to computers to solve problems.

• Tip: Keep it simple. Summarize the subject in one or two sentences and avoid getting bogged down in specifics at this stage.

Once you have the big picture in mind, it’s time to start breaking it down.

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Layer 2: Categorize and Connect

Now it’s time to break the subject into categories—like creating branches on a tree. This helps your brain organize information logically and see connections between ideas.

Example: Studying biology? Group concepts into categories like cells, genetics, and ecosystems.

• Tip: Use headings or labels to group similar ideas. Jot these down in a list or simple diagram to keep track.

With your categories in place, you’re ready to dive into the details that bring them to life.

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Layer 3: Master the Details

Once you’ve mapped out the main categories, you’re ready to dive deeper. This is where you learn the nuts and bolts—like formulas, specific techniques, or key terminology. These details make the subject practical and actionable.

Example: In programming, this might mean learning the syntax for loops, conditionals, or functions in your chosen language.

• Tip: Focus on details that clarify the categories from Layer 2. Skip anything that doesn’t add to your understanding.

Now that you’ve mastered the essentials, you can expand your knowledge to include extra material.

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Layer 4: Expand Your Horizons

Finally, move on to the extra material—less critical facts, trivia, or edge cases. While these aren’t essential to mastering the subject, they can be useful in specialized discussions or exams.

Example: Learn about rare programming quirks or historical trivia about a language’s development.

• Tip: Spend minimal time here unless it’s necessary for your goals. It’s okay to skim if you’re short on time.

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Pro Tips for Better Learning

1. Use Active Recall and Spaced Repetition

Test yourself without looking at notes. Review what you’ve learned at increasing intervals—like after a day, a week, and a month. This strengthens memory by forcing your brain to actively retrieve information.

2. Map It Out

Create visual aids like diagrams or concept maps to clarify relationships between ideas. These are particularly helpful for organizing categories in Layer 2.

3. Teach What You Learn

Explain the subject to someone else as if they’re hearing it for the first time. Teaching exposes any gaps in your understanding and helps reinforce the material.

4. Engage with LLMs and Discuss Concepts

Take advantage of tools like ChatGPT or similar large language models to explore your topic in greater depth. Use these tools to:
- Ask specific questions to clarify confusing points.
- Engage in discussions to simulate real-world applications of the subject.
- Generate examples or analogies that deepen your understanding.

Tip: Use LLMs as a study partner, but don’t rely solely on them. Combine these insights with your own critical thinking to develop a well-rounded perspective.

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Get Started

Ready to try the Four-Layer Method? Take 15 minutes today to map out the big picture of a topic you’re curious about—what’s it all about, and why does it matter? By building your understanding step by step, you’ll master the subject with less stress and more confidence.

@ ae6ce958:d0f02c7d

The world today stands at the confluence of unprecedented technological advancement and entrenched systemic challenges. Economic inequality, resource misallocation, and social fragmentation persist, often exacerbated by opaque systems that prioritize the interests of the few over the needs of the many. At the heart of these issues lies a critical flaw: the absence of transparent, verifiable accountability in behaviors and outcomes.

Enter DamageBDD, a revolutionary platform designed to automate behavioral verification and realign incentives; Damage Token, the accompanying utility token for integrating economic incentives; and Lightning Network Integration, enabling immediate liquidity for verified milestones. Together, they offer a transformative approach to addressing systemic challenges through fairness, transparency, and progress. This article critically explores the application of DamageBDD, Damage Token, and Lightning Network integration as tools to set the highest standards in behavioral verification, accountability, and real-world outcomes.

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The Core Premise: Why Verification and Liquidity Matter

At its essence, DamageBDD is a response to a fundamental question: How do we ensure that what is promised is delivered, and how do we reward individuals and organizations fairly based on outcomes? In a world where centralized systems often obscure accountability, DamageBDD’s automated and decentralized verification capabilities bring clarity.

The integration of the Lightning Network, a Layer-2 scaling solution for Bitcoin, takes this premise further by enabling instant, low-cost payments for verified milestones. This seamless liquidity enhances trust and fosters participation across all levels of society.

1. Behavioral Verification as the Foundation

What It Is: Behavioral verification refers to the systematic confirmation that predefined actions or outcomes have occurred. Unlike trust-based systems, DamageBDD relies on automated verification, ensuring accuracy and fairness.

Why It Matters: Trust is fragile, and its erosion often leads to inefficiencies, fraud, and disillusionment. DamageBDD replaces subjective evaluation with objective, immutable validation, building systems that reward effort, not influence.

1. Lightning Network Integration for Instant Liquidity

What It Is: The Lightning Network allows fast, scalable transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain, providing near-instant payments with minimal fees.

Why It Matters: By integrating the Lightning Network, DamageBDD ensures that payouts for verified milestones are immediate. This reduces the financial risks often associated with delays in traditional systems and enhances liquidity for contributors.

1. The Role of Incentives

Incentives drive behavior. Misaligned incentives lead to inefficiencies, corruption, and exclusion. Damage Token, now enhanced with Lightning Network compatibility, ensures that rewards are directly tied to verified actions, fostering accountability and inclusivity.

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DamageBDD in Action: The Vision of Practical Application

DamageBDD’s capabilities transcend industries, offering use cases that demonstrate its transformative potential:

1. Technology-Driven Development

Challenge: Traditional software development often suffers from misaligned incentives—developers prioritize delivery speed over quality, and stakeholders lack transparency into progress.

Solution: DamageBDD automates the verification of testing milestones. Paired with Lightning Network integration, developers receive immediate payouts upon milestone completion, incentivizing high-quality work.

Impact: Developers and stakeholders benefit from reduced friction, enhanced trust, and improved product outcomes.

1. Public Infrastructure and Governance

Challenge: Public projects are notoriously prone to corruption and inefficiency. Funds are misallocated, deadlines are missed, and trust in governance erodes.

Solution: DamageBDD integrates with public project management to verify milestone completion. Using the Lightning Network, payments are released instantly upon verification, ensuring accountability and liquidity.

Impact: Taxpayer money is safeguarded, public trust is restored, and projects deliver meaningful value without delays.

1. Education and Skill Development

Challenge: Traditional education systems prioritize rote learning over real-world skills, and students from disadvantaged backgrounds often lack access to resources.

Solution: DamageBDD tracks and verifies learning outcomes based on real-world applications, such as project submissions or skill demonstrations. Students are rewarded via the Lightning Network, enabling immediate access to resources.

Impact: A meritocratic system emerges, empowering learners regardless of background.

1. Decentralized Economies

Challenge: In traditional economies, wealth concentration and opaque systems marginalize individuals and small businesses.

Solution: Damage Token, coupled with DamageBDD and Lightning Network integration, creates decentralized economic systems where contributions are rewarded with immediate payouts for verified tasks.

Impact: Economic power shifts toward inclusivity, fostering a fairer distribution of resources.

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The Higher Standard: What Sets DamageBDD Apart

For DamageBDD, Damage Token, and the Lightning Network to achieve their transformative potential, they must adhere to the highest standards of design and implementation. These principles distinguish them as tools for meaningful progress:

1. Transparency and Immutability

By leveraging blockchain technology, DamageBDD ensures that every verified action is recorded immutably. This transparency builds trust among participants and prevents manipulation.

1. Decentralization and Liquidity

Decentralization reduces systemic vulnerabilities, while Lightning Network integration ensures that liquidity is never a bottleneck for participants.

1. Ethical Alignment

Behavioral verification must respect individual autonomy and privacy. DamageBDD integrates ethical considerations, ensuring that data is used responsibly and that systems promote fairness.

1. Incentive Realignment

Damage Token ties economic incentives directly to verified actions, while the Lightning Network enables fast, frictionless access to rewards, fostering a more agile system.

1. Scalability and Adaptability

DamageBDD is designed to integrate seamlessly across industries and use cases, ensuring broad applicability without compromising its core principles.

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Addressing Challenges: Critical Considerations

While the potential of DamageBDD and its ecosystem is immense, its implementation must navigate several challenges:

1. Adoption Barriers

Challenge: Organizations and individuals may resist adopting a new system, especially one that demands greater transparency and accountability.

Solution: Education, pilot programs, and highlighting the efficiency of instant payouts via the Lightning Network can foster trust and buy-in.

1. Technical Integration

Challenge: Integrating DamageBDD and Lightning Network with legacy systems may require significant effort.

Solution: Modular design and interoperability features ensure smoother integration and faster adoption.

1. Ethical and Privacy Concerns

Challenge: Behavioral verification involves data collection, which can raise privacy concerns.

Solution: DamageBDD adheres to stringent privacy standards, ensuring that data is anonymized and used ethically.

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A Roadmap to the Future: Practical Progress Through Verification

The long-term success of DamageBDD and its ecosystem depends on their ability to create meaningful, measurable change. Here’s how they can drive progress:

1. Building Inclusive Systems

DamageBDD eliminates biases by evaluating behaviors, not backgrounds. This inclusivity ensures that opportunities are accessible to all.

1. Driving Accountability

By automating verification, DamageBDD holds individuals and organizations accountable for their actions, fostering trust and integrity.

1. Empowering Marginalized Groups

Damage Token, paired with the Lightning Network, provides immediate rewards, offering a lifeline for marginalized groups to participate in equitable systems.

1. Redefining Progress

By tying incentives to verified outcomes, DamageBDD shifts the focus from short-term gains to long-term impact, redefining what progress means in the 21st century.

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Conclusion: The Vision of a Verified, Liquid Future

DamageBDD, Damage Token, and Lightning Network integration represent a paradigm shift in how we approach accountability, incentives, and progress. By automating behavioral verification and enabling instant liquidity, this ecosystem creates systems that are transparent, inclusive, and transformative.

In a world that often rewards power over merit and obscurity over transparency, DamageBDD sets a new standard. It is not just a technological evolution—it is a moral imperative, a call to action for organizations, governments, and individuals to embrace accountability and build systems worthy of humanity’s highest aspirations.

The tools are here. The vision is clear. The future is verified, liquid, and equitable.

@ 0fe1a615:c70a7ba5

11

@ 16d11430:61640947

Fiat monetary systems, often viewed as tools for economic stability and growth, are deeply anthropomorphic in their structure and impact. These systems reflect the essence of human nature: tribalism, competition, and the drive for survival. From our evolutionary roots to the intricacies of modern society, fiat systems amplify these instincts, shaping familial dynamics, societal structures, and even genetic outcomes. This article delves into the anthropological dimensions of fiat systems, exploring their strengths, weaknesses, and how individuals can navigate and exploit these systems to their advantage in an equitable manner.

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Fiat Systems as an Extension of Human Tribalism

1. Tribalism and the Roots of Fiat

Humans are inherently tribal beings, evolved to form close-knit groups that ensure survival through resource sharing and kin protection. Fiat systems, governed by centralized entities like central banks and governments, mirror these tribal instincts:

Resource Centralization: Just as early tribes controlled access to food, water, and shelter, modern fiat systems centralize the control of money and credit.

Kinship Favoritism: Policy-making often reflects tribal loyalty, prioritizing the interests of elite families and economic classes. Wealth circulates within these "modern tribes," ensuring their dominance across generations.

1. The Sociological Impact

The societal effects of fiat systems are strikingly tribal in nature:

Class Stratification: Wealth concentration creates modern “tribes” defined by socioeconomic status, leading to rigid class divides.

Social Fragmentation: Disparities in resource access foster mistrust and division, weakening societal cohesion and reducing opportunities for collaboration.

Cultural Hegemony: Elite groups shape societal values and norms, perpetuating their influence and marginalizing alternative perspectives.

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The Biological and Genetic Consequences

Fiat systems influence not only societal dynamics but also biological and genetic outcomes:

Health Disparities: Economic inequality leads to unequal access to healthcare and nutrition, creating long-term health and genetic advantages for wealthier groups.

Reproductive Patterns: Wealthier families often have higher reproductive success, while economically disadvantaged groups face declining birth rates due to financial stress.

Epigenetic Changes: Chronic stress caused by financial instability can lead to heritable epigenetic modifications, perpetuating cycles of disadvantage.

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Economic and Evolutionary Weaknesses of Fiat Systems

While fiat systems are powerful, they are not invincible. Their weaknesses arise from their anthropomorphic tendencies, making them susceptible to manipulation and exploitation:

1. Over-Reliance on Centralization

Weakness: Centralized control creates inefficiencies, corruption, and vulnerabilities to mismanagement.

Exploitation Opportunity: Individuals can leverage decentralized systems (like Bitcoin) to protect their wealth from inflation and bypass the limitations of fiat systems.

1. Inflation as a Silent Tax

Weakness: Inflation erodes purchasing power, disproportionately affecting savings and fixed-income earners.

Exploitation Opportunity: Investing in assets that appreciate with inflation (e.g., real estate, gold, or cryptocurrencies) can preserve and grow wealth.

1. Debt Dependence

Weakness: Fiat systems thrive on debt, creating cycles of dependency that can cripple individuals and nations.

Exploitation Opportunity: By avoiding unnecessary debt and prioritizing investments in education and skill development, individuals can escape the debt trap and build long-term financial stability.

1. Wealth Inequality

Weakness: The concentration of wealth limits economic mobility and stifles innovation.

Exploitation Opportunity: Understanding the policies and mechanisms that benefit the wealthy (e.g., tax strategies, asset allocation) can help individuals replicate these practices ethically to improve their financial standing.

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Anthropomorphic Resilience: How to Thrive in a Fiat World

1. Leverage Knowledge and Financial Literacy

Educate yourself on the nuances of monetary policy, taxation, and investment strategies.

Use this knowledge to navigate fiat systems effectively, turning systemic biases into personal opportunities.

1. Embrace Decentralization

Explore decentralized financial systems like Bitcoin to protect your wealth from inflation and central control.

Advocate for policies that promote equitable access to resources and reduce systemic barriers.

1. Build Resilient Networks

Cultivate strong social and professional networks that provide support and opportunities.

Recognize the tribal nature of human relationships and use it to create inclusive, collaborative communities.

1. Invest in Future Generations

Break the cycle of disadvantage by investing in education, health, and skill development for yourself and your family.

Prioritize long-term thinking over short-term gains to create lasting wealth and resilience.

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Critically Examining the Future of Fiat and Tribalism

Fiat systems, for all their flaws, are a reflection of humanity’s deepest instincts. They embody our desire to control resources, protect kin, and ensure survival. However, these same traits make fiat systems vulnerable to exploitation and perpetuation of inequality. Recognizing this duality is the first step toward reform.

1. The Need for Equity: By addressing the biases inherent in fiat systems, we can create more inclusive policies that benefit all members of society, not just the privileged few.

2. The Role of Individuals: Each person has the power to navigate and exploit these systems ethically, turning their weaknesses into opportunities for growth and empowerment.

3. The Path Forward: As humanity evolves, so too must our economic systems. By embracing decentralization, fostering education, and prioritizing collective well-being, we can transcend the limitations of tribalism and build a more equitable world.

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Conclusion: The Humanity in Fiat

At its core, the fiat monetary system is neither inherently good nor evil—it is simply human. It reflects our strengths and weaknesses, our ambitions and fears. By understanding the anthropomorphic nature of fiat systems, we can navigate their complexities, address their flaws, and ensure they serve humanity rather than divide it. In doing so, we honor the best of what it means to be human: the ability to adapt, evolve, and create a future that transcends our tribal roots.

Research References

The intersection of tribalism, monetary systems, and societal evolution has intrigued thinkers across multiple disciplines, though often explored indirectly or in fragmented ways. Here are some prominent individuals and schools of thought that have touched upon these ideas:

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1. Anthropologists and Sociologists

Yuval Noah Harari:

Books: Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, Homo Deus.

Harari delves into humanity's tribal instincts, the role of shared myths (like money), and how these constructs shape societies. He discusses how systems like fiat currency act as collective fictions that unite and divide.

Emile Durkheim:

Durkheim explored how social cohesion and division are influenced by economic and societal structures, foreshadowing modern critiques of capitalism and monetary systems.

Marshall Sahlins:

Books: Stone Age Economics.

Sahlins analyzed the economic behaviors of early societies, highlighting the transition from tribal economies to centralized systems, including the rise of monetary mechanisms.

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1. Economists and Monetary Theorists

John Maynard Keynes:

Keynes laid the foundation for modern monetary policy and explored how centralized control of money influences societal outcomes. Critics of Keynesian economics often highlight its potential to create inequality, unintentionally favoring elite "tribes."

Friedrich Hayek:

Books: The Road to Serfdom.

Hayek critiqued centralized monetary systems and advocated for decentralized economic structures, anticipating the rise of alternatives like Bitcoin.

Karl Marx:

Books: Das Kapital.

Marx argued that monetary systems are tools of class oppression, perpetuating tribal dynamics between the bourgeoisie and proletariat.

Saifedean Ammous:

Books: The Bitcoin Standard.

Ammous critiques fiat currency as a tool of wealth erosion and argues for Bitcoin as a decentralized alternative to counteract the tribal favoritism embedded in monetary systems.

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1. Evolutionary Biologists and Geneticists

Richard Dawkins:

Books: The Selfish Gene.

Dawkins popularized the idea that genetic survival drives human behavior, including tribalism. While not explicitly discussing fiat systems, his work underpins theories on how resource allocation and power structures serve genetic imperatives.

E.O. Wilson:

Books: The Social Conquest of Earth.

Wilson explored how tribalism and group selection shape human societies, touching on themes relevant to how monetary systems reinforce social hierarchies.

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1. Philosophers and Political Thinkers

Friedrich Nietzsche:

Nietzsche’s critiques of power and morality resonate with discussions on fiat systems, particularly the idea that such systems perpetuate control mechanisms favoring the powerful.

Hannah Arendt:

Books: The Human Condition.

Arendt examined the relationship between power, labor, and societal structures, providing a philosophical lens to understand how monetary systems influence human behavior.

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1. Modern Bitcoin and Decentralization Advocates

Andreas M. Antonopoulos:

Books: The Internet of Money.

Antonopoulos advocates for decentralized systems like Bitcoin to counteract the inequalities and tribal dynamics perpetuated by fiat systems.

Balaji Srinivasan:

Ideas: Srinivasan often discusses the intersection of technology, economics, and societal evolution, emphasizing decentralized systems as a way to break free from entrenched tribal hierarchies.

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1. Historians and Futurists

Will Durant:

Books: The Lessons of History.

Durant explored how economic systems and tribal instincts shape civilizations over time, offering a historical lens on modern monetary practices.

Arthur C. Clarke:

Clarke's science fiction often speculated on humanity’s evolution, blending technology, sociology, and biology to imagine futures where human instincts like tribalism adapt to new paradigms.

Alvin Toffler:

Books: Future Shock.

Toffler explored the impacts of rapid societal and technological change, touching on how economic systems evolve alongside human psychology.

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1. Cultural Critics and Theorists

Joseph Campbell:

Books: The Hero with a Thousand Faces.

Campbell’s work on myth and archetypes provides insights into how shared cultural narratives, including those tied to money and power, shape human societies.

Frantz Fanon:

Books: The Wretched of the Earth.

Fanon analyzed the impacts of colonialism and economic exploitation on societal structures, resonating with critiques of fiat systems as tools of dominance.

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1. Technologists and Cryptographers

Satoshi Nakamoto (Pseudonym):

The creator of Bitcoin, Nakamoto's vision challenges fiat systems and their inherent tribal favoritism, advocating for a decentralized, egalitarian alternative.

Nick Szabo:

Ideas: Szabo’s work on “smart contracts” and the history of money examines how monetary systems reinforce or dismantle tribal hierarchies.

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Conclusion: An Evolving Discourse

While no single thinker has encapsulated the entire intersection of tribalism, genetics, fiat systems, and societal evolution, the cumulative insights of these scholars and innovators offer a comprehensive framework. Their work collectively illuminates how fiat systems reflect and amplify human instincts, providing fertile ground for future exploration and critique.

@ 1cb14ab3:95d52462

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No. 1 - The Less Touristy "Bund"

The Bund is certainly a must-see if you are traveling to Shanghai for the first time - and it will be at the top of every travel guide out there, for good reason - there are equally as stunning alternatives away from the crowds. If you want to enjoy the skyline from a more relaxed perspective, consider the Pudong side of the river. There are parks, basketball courts, and green spaces along the riverbank for you to chill at and take in the sights. You can also hop on a ferry or a sightseeing boat to cross the river and admire the views from the renowned Bund.

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No. 2 - Walks Along Golden Street

This one is out in Gubei, a suburban area in the west of Shanghai. It may be a bit of a trek, but it is worth it if you are looking for a more relaxing and peaceful pedestrian street in the city. Golden Street, or Jinxiu Road, is a great place to walk a dog, grab an afternoon drink, or enjoy a romantic dinner with your loved one. While it may be a bit far from downtown, it makes for a great joyride on your scooter or bicycle.

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No. 3 - Moganshan Road Graffiti Wall

Moganshan Road is a gem for all things art. It is home to M50, the best art district in the city, where you will find dozens of galleries, studios, and workshops showcasing a wide range of art. There are also plenty of cool spots scattered around the area, particularly the graffiti wall. The wall is a welcome contrast to some of the drab and monotonous architecture found around the city; with colorful display of street art featuring various styles and themes. Stop by and admire the works of local and international artists, and even jump in to join them in adding your own mark. The wall is constantly evolving, so you can always find something new.

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No. 4 - Jiaotong University in the Fall

Easily one of the best spots in town for catching rows of bright yellow and red leaves. Jiaotong University is one of the oldest and most prestigious universities in China. The campus is located in Xuhui District and has a mix of Chinese and Western architectural styles to admire as well. Try to visit in late October or early November for the best leaf-peeping. You can walk along the tree-lined paths, set up a blanket in the field for a picnic, or simply take photos and enjoy the scenery.

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No. 5 - Day Drinking at Highline

Hands down one of the top five rooftop bars in the city, along with Bar Rouge, Kartel, and others; Highline is a go-to-spot that offers great views of the city and excellent food. Find it on the sixth floor of the Ascott Hotel in Huaihai Road in Xintiandi. Nothing beats a laid back Saturday afternoon at Highline. I prefer the views during the day, though it is equally as nice a night. Sip cocktails, wine, or beer, and enjoy the music and vibe. Highline is a perfect place to spend an afternoon.

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Additional Photos

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Next Guide in the Series:

An Expats Guide to the Best Spots in Shanghai: 002

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Find Me Elsewhere:

Website

Art

Travel Guides

Photography

Storefront

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All images property of Hes. Originally published as an Instagram Guide on Feb. 02, 2021. Reworked and published on Nostr on Feb. 17, 2024.

@ db625e76:f5ba6fa7

Introduction: Rethinking Our Role in Planetary Systems

Imagine our planet as a living, breathing organism with an incredibly complex metabolic system. At the heart of this system lies carbon—the fundamental building block of life—constantly moving and transforming through an intricate global cycle. But what if this cycle has a critical flaw, and what if humans are accidentally becoming its unexpected solution?

The carbon cycle is more than just a scientific concept; it's the circulatory system of our planet. Carbon moves between the atmosphere, living organisms, oceans, and underground reserves in a delicate dance that has sustained life for millions of years. Yet, hidden within this process is a paradox that could potentially threaten the very system that supports life as we know it.

The Carbon Sequestration Puzzle: A Planetary Challenge

Plants are nature's most sophisticated carbon capture machines. Through photosynthesis, they pull carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, breaking it down and incorporating carbon into their tissues. Roots, stems, leaves—all become repositories of captured carbon. While this process creates oxygen and builds biomass, it also represents a one-way mechanism that gradually depletes atmospheric carbon.

Consider the long-term geological perspective. Over millions of years, vast amounts of carbon have been permanently removed from atmospheric circulation. Ancient forests compress into coal, marine organisms transform into oil, creating enormous carbon sinks. Each of these processes progressively reduces the available carbon dioxide that future plants will need to survive.

Biological systems typically develop feedback mechanisms to prevent such unidirectional processes. However, in the carbon cycle, natural regulatory systems have been limited. Decomposition returns some carbon to the atmosphere, but not nearly at the rate of sequestration. Volcanic activity once played a crucial role in carbon redistribution, but planetary cooling has significantly reduced volcanic intensity.

The Unexpected Role of Humans

Here's where human activity becomes fascinating. Our extraction and burning of fossil fuels—often criticized as environmentally destructive—can be viewed through an entirely different lens. By releasing ancient carbon stores back into the atmosphere, humans might be inadvertently counteracting the long-term depletion of atmospheric carbon.

Think of it like a global life support system. Volcanoes used to be the primary mechanism for redistributing carbon, essentially "resetting" the game board. As volcanic activity decreases, humans have unknowingly stepped into this role. We're extracting carbon that was locked away for millions of years and returning it to atmospheric circulation.

Evolutionary Perspective: Humans as a Planetary Mechanism

This perspective challenges our traditional understanding of humanity's relationship with the planet. We're not just consumers or destroyers, but potentially a critical component of a larger, more complex ecological regulatory mechanism. Evolution might have developed humans as a solution to a systemic challenge in the carbon cycle.

Our technological interventions—fossil fuel extraction, agricultural practices, emerging carbon capture technologies—can be seen as more than just human activities. They might represent a planetary-scale adaptive response, ensuring the continued availability of carbon for photosynthetic life.

Philosophical Implications

This theory invites us to reconsider our place in the world. We're not external to the system of life, but an integral part of a sophisticated planetary process. Our actions, often viewed as destructive, might actually be part of a broader mechanism of planetary self-regulation.

It's crucial to note that this perspective doesn't absolve us of environmental responsibility. Instead, it suggests a more nuanced understanding of human impact. We are active participants in an incredibly complex system, potentially fulfilling a role that has been millions of years in the making.

Conclusion: A New Way of Seeing

The carbon cycle is not a simple, linear process, but a dynamic, adaptive system. Humans represent an unexpected variable in this equation—a potentially purposeful mechanism for maintaining the delicate balance necessary for continued life on Earth.

This perspective challenges us to think beyond simplistic narratives of environmental destruction. It suggests that our relationship with the planet is far more intricate and potentially purposeful than we've previously imagined.

We are not just observers of life's complexity, but active participants in a planetary mechanism of remarkable sophistication and potential purpose.

@ 1bda7e1f:bb97c4d9

Tldr

• Nostr is an open and interoperable protocol
• You can integrate it with workflow automation tools to augment your experience
• n8n is a great low/no-code workflow automation tool which you can host yourself
• Nostrobots allows you to integrate Nostr into n8n
• In this blog I create some workflow automations for Nostr
• A simple form to delegate posting notes
• Push notifications for mentions on multiple accounts
• Push notifications for your favourite accounts when they post a note
• All workflows are provided as open source with MIT license for you to use

Inter-op All The Things

Nostr is a new open social protocol for the internet. This open nature exciting because of the opportunities for interoperability with other technologies. In Using NFC Cards with Nostr I explored the nostr: URI to launch Nostr clients from a card tap.

The interoperability of Nostr doesn't stop there. The internet has many super-powers, and Nostr is open to all of them. Simply, there's no one to stop it. There is no one in charge, there are no permissioned APIs, and there are no risks of being de-platformed. If you can imagine technologies that would work well with Nostr, then any and all of them can ride on or alongside Nostr rails.

My mental model for why this is special is Google Wave ~2010. Google Wave was to be the next big platform. Lars was running it and had a big track record from Maps. I was excited for it. Then, Google pulled the plug. And, immediately all the time and capital invested in understanding and building on the platform was wasted.

This cannot happen to Nostr, as there is no one to pull the plug, and maybe even no plug to pull.

So long as users demand Nostr, Nostr will exist, and that is a pretty strong guarantee. It makes it worthwhile to invest in bringing Nostr into our other applications.

All we need are simple ways to plug things together.

Nostr and Workflow Automation

Workflow automation is about helping people to streamline their work. As a user, the most common way I achieve this is by connecting disparate systems together. By setting up one system to trigger another or to move data between systems, I can solve for many different problems and become way more effective.

n8n for workflow automation

Many workflow automation tools exist. My favourite is n8n. n8n is a low/no-code workflow automation platform which allows you to build all kinds of workflows. You can use it for free, you can self-host it, it has a user-friendly UI and useful API. Vs Zapier it can be far more elaborate. Vs Make.com I find it to be more intuitive in how it abstracts away the right parts of the code, but still allows you to code when you need to.

Most importantly you can plug anything into n8n: You have built-in nodes for specific applications. HTTP nodes for any other API-based service. And community nodes built by individual community members for any other purpose you can imagine.

Eating my own dogfood

It's very clear to me that there is a big design space here just demanding to be explored. If you could integrate Nostr with anything, what would you do?

In my view the best way for anyone to start anything is by solving their own problem first (aka "scratching your own itch" and "eating your own dogfood"). As I get deeper into Nostr I find myself controlling multiple Npubs – to date I have a personal Npub, a brand Npub for a community I am helping, an AI assistant Npub, and various testing Npubs. I need ways to delegate access to those Npubs without handing over the keys, ways to know if they're mentioned, and ways to know if they're posting.

I can build workflows with n8n to solve these issues for myself to start with, and keep expanding from there as new needs come up.

Running n8n with Nostrobots

I am mostly non-technical with a very helpful AI. To set up n8n to work with Nostr and operate these workflows should be possible for anyone with basic technology skills.

• I have a cheap VPS which currently runs my HAVEN Nostr Relay and Albyhub Lightning Node in Docker containers,
• My objective was to set up n8n to run alongside these in a separate Docker container on the same server, install the required nodes, and then build and host my workflows.

Installing n8n

Self-hosting n8n could not be easier. I followed n8n's Docker-Compose installation docs–

• Install Docker and Docker-Compose if you haven't already,
• Create your docker-compose.yml and .env files from the docs,
• Create your data folder sudo docker volume create n8n_data,
• Start your container with sudo docker compose up -d,
• Your n8n instance should be online at port 5678.

n8n is free to self-host but does require a license. Enter your credentials into n8n to get your free license key. You should now have access to the Workflow dashboard and can create and host any kind of workflows from there.

Installing Nostrobots

To integrate n8n nicely with Nostr, I used the Nostrobots community node by Ocknamo.

In n8n parlance a "node" enables certain functionality as a step in a workflow e.g. a "set" node sets a variable, a "send email" node sends an email. n8n comes with all kinds of "official" nodes installed by default, and Nostr is not amongst them. However, n8n also comes with a framework for community members to create their own "community" nodes, which is where Nostrobots comes in.

You can only use a community node in a self-hosted n8n instance (which is what you have if you are running in Docker on your own server, but this limitation does prevent you from using n8n's own hosted alternative).

To install a community node, see n8n community node docs. From your workflow dashboard–

• Click the "..." in the bottom left corner beside your username, and click "settings",
• Cilck "community nodes" left sidebar,
• Click "Install",
• Enter the "npm Package Name" which is n8n-nodes-nostrobots,
• Accept the risks and click "Install",
• Nostrobots is now added to your n8n instance.

Using Nostrobots

Nostrobots gives you nodes to help you build Nostr-integrated workflows–

• Nostr Write – for posting Notes to the Nostr network,
• Nostr Read – for reading Notes from the Nostr network, and
• Nostr Utils – for performing certain conversions you may need (e.g. from bech32 to hex).

Nostrobots has good documentation on each node which focuses on simple use cases.

Each node has a "convenience mode" by default. For example, the "Read" Node by default will fetch Kind 1 notes by a simple filter, in Nostrobots parlance a "Strategy". For example, with Strategy set to "Mention" the node will accept a pubkey and fetch all Kind 1 notes that Mention the pubkey within a time period. This is very good for quick use.

What wasn't clear to me initially (until Ocknamo helped me out) is that advanced use cases are also possible.

Each node also has an advanced mode. For example, the "Read" Node can have "Strategy" set to "RawFilter(advanced)". Now the node will accept json (anything you like that complies with NIP-01). You can use this to query Notes (Kind 1) as above, and also Profiles (Kind 0), Follow Lists (Kind 3), Reactions (Kind 7), Zaps (Kind 9734/9735), and anything else you can think of.

Creating and adding workflows

With n8n and Nostrobots installed, you can now create or add any kind of Nostr Workflow Automation.

• Click "Add workflow" to go to the workflow builder screen,
• If you would like to build your own workflow, you can start with adding any node. Click "+" and see what is available. Type "Nostr" to explore the Nostrobots nodes you have added,
• If you would like to add workflows that someone else has built, click "..." in the top right. Then click "import from URL" and paste in the URL of any workflow you would like to use (including the ones I share later in this article).

Nostr Workflow Automations

It's time to build some things!

A simple form to post a note to Nostr

I started very simply. I needed to delegate the ability to post to Npubs that I own in order that a (future) team can test things for me. I don't want to worry about managing or training those people on how to use keys, and I want to revoke access easily.

I needed a basic form with credentials that posted a Note.

For this I can use a very simple workflow–

• A n8n Form node – Creates a form for users to enter the note they wish to post. Allows for the form to be protected by a username and password. This node is the workflow "trigger" so that the workflow runs each time the form is submitted.
• A Set node – Allows me to set some variables, in this case I set the relays that I intend to use. I typically add a Set node immediately following the trigger node, and put all the variables I need in this. It helps to make the workflows easier to update and maintain.
• A Nostr Write node (from Nostrobots) – Writes a Kind-1 note to the Nostr network. It accepts Nostr credentials, the output of the Form node, and the relays from the Set node, and posts the Note to those relays.

Once the workflow is built, you can test it with the testing form URL, and set it to "Active" to use the production form URL. That's it. You can now give posting access to anyone for any Npub. To revoke access, simply change the credentials or set to workflow to "Inactive".

It may also be the world's simplest Nostr client.

You can find the Nostr Form to Post a Note workflow here.

Push notifications on mentions and new notes

One of the things Nostr is not very good at is push notifications. Furthermore I have some unique itches to scratch. I want–

• To make sure I never miss a note addressed to any of my Npubs – For this I want a push notification any time any Nostr user mentions any of my Npubs,
• To make sure I always see all notes from key accounts – For this I need a push notification any time any of my Npubs post any Notes to the network,
• To get these notifications on all of my devices – Not just my phone where my Nostr regular client lives, but also on each of my laptops to suit wherever I am working that day.

I needed to build a Nostr push notifications solution.

To build this workflow I had to string a few ideas together–

• Triggering the node on a schedule – Nostrobots does not include a trigger node. As every workflow starts with a trigger we needed a different method. I elected to run the workflow on a schedule of every 10-minutes. Frequent enough to see Notes while they are hot, but infrequent enough to not burden public relays or get rate-limited,
• Storing a list of Npubs in a Nostr list – I needed a way to store the list of Npubs that trigger my notifications. I initially used an array defined in the workflow, this worked fine. Then I decided to try Nostr lists (NIP-51, kind 30000). By defining my list of Npubs as a list published to Nostr I can control my list from within a Nostr client (e.g. Listr.lol or Nostrudel.ninja). Not only does this "just work", but because it's based on Nostr lists automagically Amethyst client allows me to browse that list as a Feed, and everyone I add gets notified in their Mentions,
• Using specific relays – I needed to query the right relays, including my own HAVEN relay inbox for notes addressed to me, and wss://purplepag.es for Nostr profile metadata,
• Querying Nostr events (with Nostrobots) – I needed to make use of many different Nostr queries and use quite a wide range of what Nostrobots can do–
  • I read the EventID of my Kind 30000 list, to return the desired pubkeys,
  • For notifications on mentions, I read all Kind 1 notes that mention that pubkey,
  • For notifications on new notes, I read all Kind 1 notes published by that pubkey,
  • Where there are notes, I read the Kind 0 profile metadata event of that pubkey to get the displayName of the relevant Npub,
  • I transform the EventID into a Nevent to help clients find it.
• Using the Nostr URI – As I did with my NFC card article, I created a link with the nostr: URI prefix so that my phone's native client opens the link by default,
• Push notifications solution – I needed a push notifications solution. I found many with n8n integrations and chose to go with Pushover which supports all my devices, has a free trial, and is unfairly cheap with a $5-per-device perpetual license.

Once the workflow was built, lists published, and Pushover installed on my phone, I was fully set up with push notifications on Nostr. I have used these workflows for several weeks now and made various tweaks as I went. They are feeling robust and I'd welcome you to give them a go.

You can find the Nostr Push Notification If Mentioned here and If Posts a Note here.

In speaking with other Nostr users while I was building this, there are all kind of other needs for push notifications too – like on replies to a certain bookmarked note, or when a followed Npub starts streaming on zap.stream. These are all possible.

Use my workflows

I have open sourced all my workflows at my Github with MIT license and tried to write complete docs, so that you can import them into your n8n and configure them for your own use.

To import any of my workflows–

• Click on the workflow of your choice, e.g. "Nostr_Push_Notify_If_Mentioned.json",
• Click on the "raw" button to view the raw JSON, ex any Github page layout,
• Copy that URL,
• Enter that URL in the "import from URL" dialog mentioned above.

To configure them–

• Prerequisites, credentials, and variables are all stated,
• In general any variables required are entered into a Set Node that follows the trigger node,
• Pushover has some extra setup but is very straightforward and documented in the workflow.

What next?

Over my first four blogs I explored creating a good Nostr setup with Vanity Npub, Lightning Payments, Nostr Addresses at Your Domain, and Personal Nostr Relay.

Then in my latest two blogs I explored different types of interoperability with NFC cards and now n8n Workflow Automation.

Thinking ahead n8n can power any kind of interoperability between Nostr and any other legacy technology solution. On my mind as I write this:

• Further enhancements to posting and delegating solutions and forms (enhanced UI or different note kinds),
• Automated or scheduled posting (such as auto-liking everything Lyn Alden posts),
• Further enhancements to push notifications, on new and different types of events (such as notifying me when I get a new follower, on replies to certain posts, or when a user starts streaming),
• All kinds of bridges, such as bridging notes to and from Telegram, Slack, or Campfire. Or bridging RSS or other event feeds to Nostr,
• All kinds of other automation (such as BlackCoffee controlling a coffee machine),
• All kinds of AI Assistants and Agents,

In fact I have already released an open source workflow for an AI Assistant, and will share more about that in my next blog.

Please be sure to let me know if you think there's another Nostr topic you'd like to see me tackle.

GM Nostr.

@ f9cf4e94:96abc355

Scuttlebutt foi iniciado em maio de 2014 por Dominic Tarr ( dominictarr ) como uma rede social alternativa off-line, primeiro para convidados, que permite aos usuários obter controle total de seus dados e privacidade. Secure Scuttlebutt (ssb) foi lançado pouco depois, o que coloca a privacidade em primeiro plano com mais recursos de criptografia.

Se você está se perguntando de onde diabos veio o nome Scuttlebutt:

Este termo do século 19 para uma fofoca vem do Scuttlebutt náutico: “um barril de água mantido no convés, com um buraco para uma xícara”. A gíria náutica vai desde o hábito dos marinheiros de se reunir pelo boato até a fofoca, semelhante à fofoca do bebedouro.

Marinheiros se reunindo em torno da rixa. ( fonte )

Dominic descobriu o termo boato em um artigo de pesquisa que leu.

Em sistemas distribuídos, fofocar é um processo de retransmissão de mensagens ponto a ponto; as mensagens são disseminadas de forma análoga ao “boca a boca”.

Secure Scuttlebutt é um banco de dados de feeds imutáveis apenas para acréscimos, otimizado para replicação eficiente para protocolos ponto a ponto. Cada usuário tem um log imutável somente para acréscimos no qual eles podem gravar. Eles gravam no log assinando mensagens com sua chave privada. Pense em um feed de usuário como seu próprio diário de bordo, como um diário de bordo (ou diário do capitão para os fãs de Star Trek), onde eles são os únicos autorizados a escrever nele, mas têm a capacidade de permitir que outros amigos ou colegas leiam ao seu diário de bordo, se assim o desejarem.

Cada mensagem possui um número de sequência e a mensagem também deve fazer referência à mensagem anterior por seu ID. O ID é um hash da mensagem e da assinatura. A estrutura de dados é semelhante à de uma lista vinculada. É essencialmente um log somente de acréscimo de JSON assinado. Cada item adicionado a um log do usuário é chamado de mensagem.

Os logs do usuário são conhecidos como feed e um usuário pode seguir os feeds de outros usuários para receber suas atualizações. Cada usuário é responsável por armazenar seu próprio feed. Quando Alice assina o feed de Bob, Bob baixa o log de feed de Alice. Bob pode verificar se o registro do feed realmente pertence a Alice verificando as assinaturas. Bob pode verificar as assinaturas usando a chave pública de Alice.

Estrutura de alto nível de um feed

Pubs são servidores de retransmissão conhecidos como “super peers”. Pubs conectam usuários usuários e atualizações de fofocas a outros usuários conectados ao Pub. Um Pub é análogo a um pub da vida real, onde as pessoas vão para se encontrar e se socializar. Para ingressar em um Pub, o usuário deve ser convidado primeiro. Um usuário pode solicitar um código de convite de um Pub; o Pub simplesmente gerará um novo código de convite, mas alguns Pubs podem exigir verificação adicional na forma de verificação de e-mail ou, com alguns Pubs, você deve pedir um código em um fórum público ou chat. Pubs também podem mapear aliases de usuário, como e-mails ou nome de usuário, para IDs de chave pública para facilitar os pares de referência.

Depois que o Pub enviar o código de convite ao usuário, o usuário resgatará o código, o que significa que o Pub seguirá o usuário, o que permite que o usuário veja as mensagens postadas por outros membros do Pub, bem como as mensagens de retransmissão do Pub pelo usuário a outros membros do Pub.

Além de retransmitir mensagens entre pares, os Pubs também podem armazenar as mensagens. Se Alice estiver offline e Bob transmitir atualizações de feed, Alice perderá a atualização. Se Alice ficar online, mas Bob estiver offline, não haverá como ela buscar o feed de Bob. Mas com um Pub, Alice pode buscar o feed no Pub mesmo se Bob estiver off-line porque o Pub está armazenando as mensagens. Pubs são úteis porque assim que um colega fica online, ele pode sincronizar com o Pub para receber os feeds de seus amigos potencialmente offline.

Um usuário pode, opcionalmente, executar seu próprio servidor Pub e abri-lo ao público ou permitir que apenas seus amigos participem, se assim o desejarem. Eles também podem ingressar em um Pub público. Aqui está uma lista de Pubs públicos em que todos podem participar . Explicaremos como ingressar em um posteriormente neste guia. Uma coisa importante a observar é que o Secure Scuttlebutt em uma rede social somente para convidados significa que você deve ser “puxado” para entrar nos círculos sociais. Se você responder às mensagens, os destinatários não serão notificados, a menos que estejam seguindo você de volta. O objetivo do SSB é criar “ilhas” isoladas de redes pares, ao contrário de uma rede pública onde qualquer pessoa pode enviar mensagens a qualquer pessoa.

Perspectivas dos participantes

Scuttlebot

O software Pub é conhecido como servidor Scuttlebutt (servidor ssb ), mas também é conhecido como “Scuttlebot” e sbotna linha de comando. O servidor SSB adiciona comportamento de rede ao banco de dados Scuttlebutt (SSB). Estaremos usando o Scuttlebot ao longo deste tutorial.

Os logs do usuário são conhecidos como feed e um usuário pode seguir os feeds de outros usuários para receber suas atualizações. Cada usuário é responsável por armazenar seu próprio feed. Quando Alice assina o feed de Bob, Bob baixa o log de feed de Alice. Bob pode verificar se o registro do feed realmente pertence a Alice verificando as assinaturas. Bob pode verificar as assinaturas usando a chave pública de Alice.

Estrutura de alto nível de um feed

Pubs são servidores de retransmissão conhecidos como “super peers”. Pubs conectam usuários usuários e atualizações de fofocas a outros usuários conectados ao Pub. Um Pub é análogo a um pub da vida real, onde as pessoas vão para se encontrar e se socializar. Para ingressar em um Pub, o usuário deve ser convidado primeiro. Um usuário pode solicitar um código de convite de um Pub; o Pub simplesmente gerará um novo código de convite, mas alguns Pubs podem exigir verificação adicional na forma de verificação de e-mail ou, com alguns Pubs, você deve pedir um código em um fórum público ou chat. Pubs também podem mapear aliases de usuário, como e-mails ou nome de usuário, para IDs de chave pública para facilitar os pares de referência.

Depois que o Pub enviar o código de convite ao usuário, o usuário resgatará o código, o que significa que o Pub seguirá o usuário, o que permite que o usuário veja as mensagens postadas por outros membros do Pub, bem como as mensagens de retransmissão do Pub pelo usuário a outros membros do Pub.

Além de retransmitir mensagens entre pares, os Pubs também podem armazenar as mensagens. Se Alice estiver offline e Bob transmitir atualizações de feed, Alice perderá a atualização. Se Alice ficar online, mas Bob estiver offline, não haverá como ela buscar o feed de Bob. Mas com um Pub, Alice pode buscar o feed no Pub mesmo se Bob estiver off-line porque o Pub está armazenando as mensagens. Pubs são úteis porque assim que um colega fica online, ele pode sincronizar com o Pub para receber os feeds de seus amigos potencialmente offline.

Um usuário pode, opcionalmente, executar seu próprio servidor Pub e abri-lo ao público ou permitir que apenas seus amigos participem, se assim o desejarem. Eles também podem ingressar em um Pub público. Aqui está uma lista de Pubs públicos em que todos podem participar . Explicaremos como ingressar em um posteriormente neste guia. Uma coisa importante a observar é que o Secure Scuttlebutt em uma rede social somente para convidados significa que você deve ser “puxado” para entrar nos círculos sociais. Se você responder às mensagens, os destinatários não serão notificados, a menos que estejam seguindo você de volta. O objetivo do SSB é criar “ilhas” isoladas de redes pares, ao contrário de uma rede pública onde qualquer pessoa pode enviar mensagens a qualquer pessoa.

Perspectivas dos participantes

Pubs - Hubs

Pubs públicos

| Pub Name | Operator | Invite Code | | ------------------------------------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------ | | scuttle.us | @Ryan | scuttle.us:8008:@WqcuCOIpLtXFRw/9vOAQJti8avTZ9vxT9rKrPo8qG6o=.ed25519~/ZUi9Chpl0g1kuWSrmehq2EwMQeV0Pd+8xw8XhWuhLE= | | pub1.upsocial.com | @freedomrules | pub1.upsocial.com:8008:@gjlNF5Cyw3OKZxEoEpsVhT5Xv3HZutVfKBppmu42MkI=.ed25519~lMd6f4nnmBZEZSavAl4uahl+feajLUGqu8s2qdoTLi8= | | Monero Pub | @Denis | xmr-pub.net:8008:@5hTpvduvbDyMLN2IdzDKa7nx7PSem9co3RsOmZoyyCM=.ed25519~vQU+r2HUd6JxPENSinUWdfqrJLlOqXiCbzHoML9iVN4= | | FreeSocial | @Jarland | pub.freesocial.co:8008:@ofYKOy2p9wsaxV73GqgOyh6C6nRGFM5FyciQyxwBd6A=.ed25519~ye9Z808S3KPQsV0MWr1HL0/Sh8boSEwW+ZK+8x85u9w= | | ssb.vpn.net.br | @coffeverton | ssb.vpn.net.br:8008:@ze8nZPcf4sbdULvknEFOCbVZtdp7VRsB95nhNw6/2YQ=.ed25519~D0blTolH3YoTwSAkY5xhNw8jAOjgoNXL/+8ZClzr0io= | | gossip.noisebridge.info | Noisebridge Hackerspace @james.network | gossip.noisebridge.info:8008:@2NANnQVdsoqk0XPiJG2oMZqaEpTeoGrxOHJkLIqs7eY=.ed25519~JWTC6+rPYPW5b5zCion0gqjcJs35h6JKpUrQoAKWgJ4= |

Pubs privados

Você precisará entrar em contato com os proprietários desses bares para receber um convite.

| Pub Name | Operator | Contact | | --------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------ | ----------------------------------------------- | | many.butt.nz | @dinosaur | mikey@enspiral.com | | one.butt.nz | @dinosaur | mikey@enspiral.com | | ssb.mikey.nz | @dinosaur | mikey@enspiral.com | | ssb.celehner.com | @cel | cel@celehner.com |

Pubs muito grandes

Aviso: embora tecnicamente funcione usar um convite para esses pubs, você provavelmente se divertirá se o fizer devido ao seu tamanho (muitas coisas para baixar, risco para bots / spammers / idiotas)

| Pub Name | Operator | Invite Code | | --------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------ | | scuttlebutt.de | SolSoCoG | scuttlebutt.de:8008:@yeh/GKxlfhlYXSdgU7CRLxm58GC42za3tDuC4NJld/k=.ed25519~iyaCpZ0co863K9aF+b7j8BnnHfwY65dGeX6Dh2nXs3c= | | Lohn's Pub | @lohn | p.lohn.in:8018:@LohnKVll9HdLI3AndEc4zwGtfdF/J7xC7PW9B/JpI4U=.ed25519~z3m4ttJdI4InHkCtchxTu26kKqOfKk4woBb1TtPeA/s= | | Scuttle Space | @guil-dot | Visit scuttle.space | | SSB PeerNet US-East | timjrobinson | us-east.ssbpeer.net:8008:@sTO03jpVivj65BEAJMhlwtHXsWdLd9fLwyKAT1qAkc0=.ed25519~sXFc5taUA7dpGTJITZVDCRy2A9jmkVttsr107+ufInU= | | Hermies | s | net:hermies.club:8008~shs:uMYDVPuEKftL4SzpRGVyQxLdyPkOiX7njit7+qT/7IQ=:SSB+Room+PSK3TLYC2T86EHQCUHBUHASCASE18JBV24= |

GUI - Interface Gráfica do Utilizador(Usuário)

Patchwork - Uma GUI SSB (Descontinuado)

Patchwork é o aplicativo de mensagens e compartilhamento descentralizado construído em cima do SSB . O protocolo scuttlebutt em si não mantém um conjunto de feeds nos quais um usuário está interessado, então um cliente é necessário para manter uma lista de feeds de pares em que seu respectivo usuário está interessado e seguindo.

Fonte: scuttlebutt.nz

Quando você instala e executa o Patchwork, você só pode ver e se comunicar com seus pares em sua rede local. Para acessar fora de sua LAN, você precisa se conectar a um Pub. Um pub é apenas para convidados e eles retransmitem mensagens entre você e seus pares fora de sua LAN e entre outros Pubs.

Lembre-se de que você precisa seguir alguém para receber mensagens dessa pessoa. Isso reduz o envio de mensagens de spam para os usuários. Os usuários só veem as respostas das pessoas que seguem. Os dados são sincronizados no disco para funcionar offline, mas podem ser sincronizados diretamente com os pares na sua LAN por wi-fi ou bluetooth.

Patchbay - Uma GUI Alternativa

Patchbay é um cliente de fofoca projetado para ser fácil de modificar e estender. Ele usa o mesmo banco de dados que Patchwork e Patchfoo , então você pode facilmente dar uma volta com sua identidade existente.

Planetary - GUI para IOS

Planetary é um app com pubs pré-carregados para facilitar integração.

Manyverse - GUI para Android

Manyverse é um aplicativo de rede social com recursos que você esperaria: posts, curtidas, perfis, mensagens privadas, etc. Mas não está sendo executado na nuvem de propriedade de uma empresa, em vez disso, as postagens de seus amigos e todos os seus dados sociais vivem inteiramente em seu telefone .

Fontes

• https://scuttlebot.io/

• https://decentralized-id.com/decentralized-web/scuttlebot/#plugins

• https://medium.com/@miguelmota/getting-started-with-secure-scuttlebut-e6b7d4c5ecfd

• Secure Scuttlebutt : um protocolo de banco de dados global.

@ 16d11430:61640947

In every town, in every home, there lies a force unseen but deeply felt. It does not bear a face or speak a word, yet its presence governs lives and decides destinies. This force, born of human invention, is the fiat monetary system. Like a shadow cast over the dinner table, it molds the lives of families in ways that few can name but all can feel.

---

The Weight of a Dollar That Isn't Worth a Dollar

Families, once the heart of a community, find themselves stretched thin under the weight of money that promises security but delivers uncertainty. Inflation, a quiet thief in the night, robs the hard-earned savings of parents who dream of brighter futures for their children. They sit at kitchen tables, bills spread like playing cards, and wonder how far their dollars will stretch this month. The dreams of vacations, college funds, or even a night out fade beneath the gnawing fear of rising prices and unpaid debts.

Debt itself is a serpent, coiled tightly around many a household. It whispers promises of homes, cars, and comforts, but its grip tightens with each passing month. Fathers work longer hours; mothers take second jobs. The children, left to their own devices, grow up in homes where the light of connection dims under the weight of obligation.

---

A House Divided by Numbers

Fiat money divides more than just wealth; it divides hearts and homes. Generations, once bound by shared struggle and sacrifice, now find themselves at odds. Parents, raised on tales of hard work and thrift, watch their children struggle beneath mountains of student debt and stagnant wages. The younger generation looks at their elders with a mix of envy and resentment, wondering why the ladder to success seems shorter for them.

This divide is not born of malice but of a system that values numbers over people. As communities grow wealthier in goods, they grow poorer in connection. Neighbors no longer gather on porches to share stories; families no longer sit down to meals together. The bonds that hold society together fray, one thread at a time.

---

The Exodus of Hope

In towns where opportunity dries up like a summer creek, young people leave, chasing dreams in distant cities. They promise to send money back home, but the miles between them and their kin grow longer with each passing year. Children grow up without grandparents; siblings become strangers. The family, once a stronghold, becomes a memory of what was and what could have been.

This migration is not born of greed but necessity. The fiat system creates deserts where once there were gardens, forcing people to seek greener pastures. But in the pursuit of individual prosperity, the roots of community are pulled up, leaving behind only dust and longing.

---

A Silent Burden on the Heart

The fiat system does not shout; it whispers. It whispers to parents as they lie awake at night, counting the cost of a child’s education. It whispers to children who watch their parents argue over money. It whispers to the elderly who wonder if their pensions will last. This constant hum of worry and uncertainty wears on the spirit, making joy a fleeting visitor in many homes.

The toll is not just financial but emotional. Anxiety becomes a constant companion; stress seeps into every corner of life. Families, once a refuge from the world, become battlegrounds where arguments over money take the place of laughter and love.

---

A Glimpse of Light

But even in the darkest corners, there is always a glimmer of hope. Some see a way out—a return to something simpler, something fairer. They dream of a world where money does not dictate worth, where families are not torn apart by financial strain, where communities are built on trust and shared purpose.

This vision is not easy to grasp, but it grows stronger with each passing day. It is a reminder that no system, no matter how powerful, is greater than the human spirit. Families have weathered storms before, and they will again. Perhaps, one day, they will gather around tables not to divide burdens but to share dreams, free from the chains of a system that seeks to control them.

---

Conclusion: A Call to Remember

The fiat system may govern the world, but it does not define it. At the heart of every family lies something far more valuable than money—love, resilience, and the hope of a better tomorrow. In remembering this, perhaps we can find a way to break free from the invisible chain and rebuild the bonds that truly matter.

For in the end, it is not wealth or power that sustains a family but the simple act of being together, unbroken by the weight of the world. And that, above all, is a treasure no system can take away.

@ e97aaffa:2ebd765d

Último dia do ano, momento para tirar o pó da bola de cristal, para fazer reflexões, previsões e desejos para o próximo ano e seguintes.

Ano após ano, o Bitcoin evoluiu, foi ultrapassando etapas, tornou-se cada vez mais mainstream. Está cada vez mais difícil fazer previsões sobre o Bitcoin, já faltam poucas barreiras a serem ultrapassadas e as que faltam são altamente complexas ou tem um impacto profundo no sistema financeiro ou na sociedade. Estas alterações profundas tem que ser realizadas lentamente, porque uma alteração rápida poderia resultar em consequências terríveis, poderia provocar um retrocesso.

Código do Bitcoin

No final de 2025, possivelmente vamos ter um fork, as discussões sobre os covenants já estão avançadas, vão acelerar ainda mais. Já existe um consenso relativamente alto, a favor dos covenants, só falta decidir que modelo será escolhido. Penso que até ao final do ano será tudo decidido.

Depois dos covenants, o próximo foco será para a criptografia post-quantum, que será o maior desafio que o Bitcoin enfrenta. Criar uma criptografia segura e que não coloque a descentralização em causa.

Espero muito de Ark, possivelmente a inovação do ano, gostaria de ver o Nostr a furar a bolha bitcoinheira e que o Cashu tivesse mais reconhecimento pelos bitcoiners.

Espero que surjam avanços significativos no BitVM2 e BitVMX.

Não sei o que esperar das layer 2 de Bitcoin, foram a maior desilusão de 2024. Surgiram com muita força, mas pouca coisa saiu do papel, foi uma mão cheia de nada. Uma parte dos projetos caiu na tentação da shitcoinagem, na criação de tokens, que tem um único objetivo, enriquecer os devs e os VCs.

Se querem ser levados a sério, têm que ser sérios.

“À mulher de César não basta ser honesta, deve parecer honesta”

Se querem ter o apoio dos bitcoiners, sigam o ethos do Bitcoin.

Neste ponto a atitude do pessoal da Ark é exemplar, em vez de andar a chorar no Twitter para mudar o código do Bitcoin, eles colocaram as mãos na massa e criaram o protocolo. É claro que agora está meio “coxo”, funciona com uma multisig ou com os covenants na Liquid. Mas eles estão a criar um produto, vão demonstrar ao mercado que o produto é bom e útil. Com a adoção, a comunidade vai perceber que o Ark necessita dos covenants para melhorar a interoperabilidade e a soberania.

É este o pensamento certo, que deveria ser seguido pelos restantes e futuros projetos. É seguir aquele pensamento do J.F. Kennedy:

“Não perguntem o que é que o vosso país pode fazer por vocês, perguntem o que é que vocês podem fazer pelo vosso país”

Ou seja, não fiquem à espera que o bitcoin mude, criem primeiro as inovações/tecnologia, ganhem adoção e depois demonstrem que a alteração do código camada base pode melhorar ainda mais o vosso projeto. A necessidade é que vai levar a atualização do código.

Reservas Estratégicas de Bitcoin

Bancos centrais

Com a eleição de Trump, emergiu a ideia de uma Reserva Estratégia de Bitcoin, tornou este conceito mainstream. Foi um pivot, a partir desse momento, foram enumerados os políticos de todo o mundo a falar sobre o assunto.

A Senadora Cynthia Lummis foi mais além e propôs um programa para adicionar 200 mil bitcoins à reserva ao ano, até 1 milhão de Bitcoin. Só que isto está a criar uma enorme expectativa na comunidade, só que pode resultar numa enorme desilusão. Porque no primeiro ano, o Trump em vez de comprar os 200 mil, pode apenas adicionar na reserva, os 198 mil que o Estado já tem em sua posse. Se isto acontecer, possivelmente vai resultar numa forte queda a curto prazo. Na minha opinião os bancos centrais deveriam seguir o exemplo de El Salvador, fazer um DCA diário.

Mais que comprar bitcoin, para mim, o mais importante é a criação da Reserva, é colocar o Bitcoin ao mesmo nível do ouro, o impacto para o resto do mundo será tremendo, a teoria dos jogos na sua plenitude. Muitos outros bancos centrais vão ter que comprar, para não ficarem atrás, além disso, vai transmitir uma mensagem à generalidade da população, que o Bitcoin é “afinal é algo seguro, com valor”.

Mas não foi Trump que iniciou esta teoria dos jogos, mas sim foi a primeira vítima dela. É o próprio Trump que o admite, que os EUA necessitam da reserva para não ficar atrás da China. Além disso, desde que os EUA utilizaram o dólar como uma arma, com sanção contra a Rússia, surgiram boatos de que a Rússia estaria a utilizar o Bitcoin para transações internacionais. Que foram confirmados recentemente, pelo próprio governo russo. Também há poucos dias, ainda antes deste reconhecimento público, Putin elogiou o Bitcoin, ao reconhecer que “Ninguém pode proibir o bitcoin”, defendendo como uma alternativa ao dólar. A narrativa está a mudar.

Já existem alguns países com Bitcoin, mas apenas dois o fizeram conscientemente (El Salvador e Butão), os restantes têm devido a apreensões. Hoje são poucos, mas 2025 será o início de uma corrida pelos bancos centrais. Esta corrida era algo previsível, o que eu não esperava é que acontecesse tão rápido.

Empresas

A criação de reservas estratégicas não vai ficar apenas pelos bancos centrais, também vai acelerar fortemente nas empresas em 2025.

Mas as empresas não vão seguir a estratégia do Saylor, vão comprar bitcoin sem alavancagem, utilizando apenas os tesouros das empresas, como uma proteção contra a inflação. Eu não sou grande admirador do Saylor, prefiro muito mais, uma estratégia conservadora, sem qualquer alavancagem. Penso que as empresas vão seguir a sugestão da BlackRock, que aconselha um alocações de 1% a 3%.

Penso que 2025, ainda não será o ano da entrada das 6 magníficas (excepto Tesla), será sobretudo empresas de pequena e média dimensão. As magníficas ainda tem uma cota muito elevada de shareholders com alguma idade, bastante conservadores, que têm dificuldade em compreender o Bitcoin, foi o que aconteceu recentemente com a Microsoft.

Também ainda não será em 2025, talvez 2026, a inclusão nativamente de wallet Bitcoin nos sistema da Apple Pay e da Google Pay. Seria um passo gigante para a adoção a nível mundial.

ETFs

Os ETFs para mim são uma incógnita, tenho demasiadas dúvidas, como será 2025. Este ano os inflows foram superiores a 500 mil bitcoins, o IBIT foi o lançamento de ETF mais bem sucedido da história. O sucesso dos ETFs, deve-se a 2 situações que nunca mais se vão repetir. O mercado esteve 10 anos à espera pela aprovação dos ETFs, a procura estava reprimida, isso foi bem notório nos primeiros meses, os inflows foram brutais.

Também se beneficiou por ser um mercado novo, não existia orderbook de vendas, não existia um mercado interno, praticamente era só inflows. Agora o mercado já estabilizou, a maioria das transações já são entre clientes dos próprios ETFs. Agora só uma pequena percentagem do volume das transações diárias vai resultar em inflows ou outflows.

Estes dois fenómenos nunca mais se vão repetir, eu não acredito que o número de inflows em BTC supere os número de 2024, em dólares vai superar, mas em btc não acredito que vá superar.

Mas em 2025 vão surgir uma infindável quantidade de novos produtos, derivativos, novos ETFs de cestos com outras criptos ou cestos com ativos tradicionais. O bitcoin será adicionado em produtos financeiros já existentes no mercado, as pessoas vão passar a deter bitcoin, sem o saberem.

Com o fim da operação ChokePoint 2.0, vai surgir uma nova onda de adoção e de produtos financeiros. Possivelmente vamos ver bancos tradicionais a disponibilizar produtos ou serviços de custódia aos seus clientes.

Eu adoraria ver o crescimento da adoção do bitcoin como moeda, só que a regulamentação não vai ajudar nesse processo.

Preço

Eu acredito que o topo deste ciclo será alcançado no primeiro semestre, posteriormente haverá uma correção. Mas desta vez, eu acredito que a correção será muito menor que as anteriores, inferior a 50%, esta é a minha expectativa. Espero estar certo.

Stablecoins de dólar

Agora saindo um pouco do universo do Bitcoin, acho importante destacar as stablecoins.

No último ciclo, eu tenho dividido o tempo, entre continuar a estudar o Bitcoin e estudar o sistema financeiro, as suas dinâmicas e o comportamento humano. Isto tem sido o meu foco de reflexão, imaginar a transformação que o mundo vai sofrer devido ao padrão Bitcoin. É uma ilusão acreditar que a transição de um padrão FIAT para um padrão Bitcoin vai ser rápida, vai existir um processo transitório que pode demorar décadas.

Com a re-entrada de Trump na Casa Branca, prometendo uma política altamente protecionista, vai provocar uma forte valorização do dólar, consequentemente as restantes moedas do mundo vão derreter. Provocando uma inflação generalizada, gerando uma corrida às stablecoins de dólar nos países com moedas mais fracas. Trump vai ter uma política altamente expansionista, vai exportar dólares para todo o mundo, para financiar a sua própria dívida. A desigualdade entre os pobres e ricos irá crescer fortemente, aumentando a possibilidade de conflitos e revoltas.

“Casa onde não há pão, todos ralham e ninguém tem razão”

Será mais lenha, para alimentar a fogueira, vai gravar os conflitos geopolíticos já existentes, ficando as sociedade ainda mais polarizadas.

Eu acredito que 2025, vai haver um forte crescimento na adoção das stablecoins de dólares, esse forte crescimento vai agravar o problema sistémico que são as stablecoins. Vai ser o início do fim das stablecoins, pelo menos, como nós conhecemos hoje em dia.

Problema sistémico

O sistema FIAT não nasceu de um dia para outro, foi algo que foi construído organicamente, ou seja, foi evoluindo ao longo dos anos, sempre que havia um problema/crise, eram criadas novas regras ou novas instituições para minimizar os problemas. Nestes quase 100 anos, desde os acordos de Bretton Woods, a evolução foram tantas, tornaram o sistema financeiro altamente complexo, burocrático e nada eficiente.

Na prática é um castelo de cartas construído sobre outro castelo de cartas e que por sua vez, foi construído sobre outro castelo de cartas.

As stablecoins são um problema sistémico, devido às suas reservas em dólares e o sistema financeiro não está preparado para manter isso seguro. Com o crescimento das reservas ao longo dos anos, foi se agravando o problema.

No início a Tether colocava as reservas em bancos comerciais, mas com o crescimento dos dólares sob gestão, criou um problema nos bancos comerciais, devido à reserva fracionária. Essas enormes reservas da Tether estavam a colocar em risco a própria estabilidade dos bancos.

A Tether acabou por mudar de estratégia, optou por outros ativos, preferencialmente por títulos do tesouro/obrigações dos EUA. Só que a Tether continua a crescer e não dá sinais de abrandamento, pelo contrário.

Até o próprio mundo cripto, menosprezava a gravidade do problema da Tether/stablecoins para o resto do sistema financeiro, porque o marketcap do cripto ainda é muito pequeno. É verdade que ainda é pequeno, mas a Tether não o é, está no top 20 dos maiores detentores de títulos do tesouros dos EUA e está ao nível dos maiores bancos centrais do mundo. Devido ao seu tamanho, está a preocupar os responsáveis/autoridades/reguladores dos EUA, pode colocar em causa a estabilidade do sistema financeiro global, que está assente nessas obrigações.

Os títulos do tesouro dos EUA são o colateral mais utilizado no mundo, tanto por bancos centrais, como por empresas, é a charneira da estabilidade do sistema financeiro. Os títulos do tesouro são um assunto muito sensível. Na recente crise no Japão, do carry trade, o Banco Central do Japão tentou minimizar a desvalorização do iene através da venda de títulos dos EUA. Esta operação, obrigou a uma viagem de emergência, da Secretaria do Tesouro dos EUA, Janet Yellen ao Japão, onde disponibilizou liquidez para parar a venda de títulos por parte do Banco Central do Japão. Essa forte venda estava desestabilizando o mercado.

Os principais detentores de títulos do tesouros são institucionais, bancos centrais, bancos comerciais, fundo de investimento e gestoras, tudo administrado por gestores altamente qualificados, racionais e que conhecem a complexidade do mercado de obrigações.

O mundo cripto é seu oposto, é naife com muita irracionalidade e uma forte pitada de loucura, na sua maioria nem faz a mínima ideia como funciona o sistema financeiro. Essa irracionalidade pode levar a uma “corrida bancária”, como aconteceu com o UST da Luna, que em poucas horas colapsou o projeto. Em termos de escala, a Luna ainda era muito pequena, por isso, o problema ficou circunscrito ao mundo cripto e a empresas ligadas diretamente ao cripto.

Só que a Tether é muito diferente, caso exista algum FUD, que obrigue a Tether a desfazer-se de vários biliões ou dezenas de biliões de dólares em títulos num curto espaço de tempo, poderia provocar consequências terríveis em todo o sistema financeiro. A Tether é grande demais, é já um problema sistémico, que vai agravar-se com o crescimento em 2025.

Não tenham dúvidas, se existir algum problema, o Tesouro dos EUA vai impedir a venda dos títulos que a Tether tem em sua posse, para salvar o sistema financeiro. O problema é, o que vai fazer a Tether, se ficar sem acesso às venda das reservas, como fará o redeem dos dólares?

Como o crescimento do Tether é inevitável, o Tesouro e o FED estão com um grande problema em mãos, o que fazer com o Tether?

Mas o problema é que o atual sistema financeiro é como um curto cobertor: Quanto tapas a cabeça, destapas os pés; Ou quando tapas os pés, destapas a cabeça. Ou seja, para resolver o problema da guarda reservas da Tether, vai criar novos problemas, em outros locais do sistema financeiro e assim sucessivamente.

Conta mestre

Uma possível solução seria dar uma conta mestre à Tether, dando o acesso direto a uma conta no FED, semelhante à que todos os bancos comerciais têm. Com isto, a Tether deixaria de necessitar os títulos do tesouro, depositando o dinheiro diretamente no banco central. Só que isto iria criar dois novos problemas, com o Custodia Bank e com o restante sistema bancário.

O Custodia Bank luta há vários anos contra o FED, nos tribunais pelo direito a ter licença bancária para um banco com full-reserves. O FED recusou sempre esse direito, com a justificativa que esse banco, colocaria em risco toda a estabilidade do sistema bancário existente, ou seja, todos os outros bancos poderiam colapsar. Perante a existência em simultâneo de bancos com reserva fracionária e com full-reserves, as pessoas e empresas iriam optar pelo mais seguro. Isso iria provocar uma corrida bancária, levando ao colapso de todos os bancos com reserva fracionária, porque no Custodia Bank, os fundos dos clientes estão 100% garantidos, para qualquer valor. Deixaria de ser necessário limites de fundos de Garantia de Depósitos.

Eu concordo com o FED nesse ponto, que os bancos com full-reserves são uma ameaça a existência dos restantes bancos. O que eu discordo do FED, é a origem do problema, o problema não está nos bancos full-reserves, mas sim nos que têm reserva fracionária.

O FED ao conceder uma conta mestre ao Tether, abre um precedente, o Custodia Bank irá o aproveitar, reclamando pela igualdade de direitos nos tribunais e desta vez, possivelmente ganhará a sua licença.

Ainda há um segundo problema, com os restantes bancos comerciais. A Tether passaria a ter direitos similares aos bancos comerciais, mas os deveres seriam muito diferentes. Isto levaria os bancos comerciais aos tribunais para exigir igualdade de tratamento, é uma concorrência desleal. Isto é o bom dos tribunais dos EUA, são independentes e funcionam, mesmo contra o estado. Os bancos comerciais têm custos exorbitantes devido às políticas de compliance, como o KYC e AML. Como o governo não vai querer aliviar as regras, logo seria a Tether, a ser obrigada a fazer o compliance dos seus clientes.

A obrigação do KYC para ter stablecoins iriam provocar um terramoto no mundo cripto.

Assim, é pouco provável que seja a solução para a Tether.

FED

Só resta uma hipótese, ser o próprio FED a controlar e a gerir diretamente as stablecoins de dólar, nacionalizado ou absorvendo as existentes. Seria uma espécie de CBDC. Isto iria provocar um novo problema, um problema diplomático, porque as stablecoins estão a colocar em causa a soberania monetária dos outros países. Atualmente as stablecoins estão um pouco protegidas porque vivem num limbo jurídico, mas a partir do momento que estas são controladas pelo governo americano, tudo muda. Os países vão exigir às autoridades americanas medidas que limitem o uso nos seus respectivos países.

Não existe uma solução boa, o sistema FIAT é um castelo de cartas, qualquer carta que se mova, vai provocar um desmoronamento noutro local. As autoridades não poderão adiar mais o problema, terão que o resolver de vez, senão, qualquer dia será tarde demais. Se houver algum problema, vão colocar a responsabilidade no cripto e no Bitcoin. Mas a verdade, a culpa é inteiramente dos políticos, da sua incompetência em resolver os problemas a tempo.

Será algo para acompanhar futuramente, mas só para 2026, talvez…

É curioso, há uns anos pensava-se que o Bitcoin seria a maior ameaça ao sistema ao FIAT, mas afinal, a maior ameaça aos sistema FIAT é o próprio FIAT(stablecoins). A ironia do destino.

Isto é como uma corrida, o Bitcoin é aquele atleta que corre ao seu ritmo, umas vezes mais rápido, outras vezes mais lento, mas nunca pára. O FIAT é o atleta que dá tudo desde da partida, corre sempre em velocidade máxima. Só que a vida e o sistema financeiro não é uma prova de 100 metros, mas sim uma maratona.

Europa

2025 será um ano desafiante para todos europeus, sobretudo devido à entrada em vigor da regulamentação (MiCA). Vão começar a sentir na pele a regulamentação, vão agravar-se os problemas com os compliance, problemas para comprovar a origem de fundos e outras burocracias. Vai ser lindo.

O Travel Route passa a ser obrigatório, os europeus serão obrigados a fazer o KYC nas transações. A Travel Route é uma suposta lei para criar mais transparência, mas prática, é uma lei de controle, de monitorização e para limitar as liberdades individuais dos cidadãos.

O MiCA também está a colocar problemas nas stablecoins de Euro, a Tether para já preferiu ficar de fora da europa. O mais ridículo é que as novas regras obrigam os emissores a colocar 30% das reservas em bancos comerciais. Os burocratas europeus não compreendem que isto coloca em risco a estabilidade e a solvência dos próprios bancos, ficam propensos a corridas bancárias.

O MiCA vai obrigar a todas as exchanges a estar registadas em solo europeu, ficando vulnerável ao temperamento dos burocratas. Ainda não vai ser em 2025, mas a UE vai impor políticas de controle de capitais, é inevitável, as exchanges serão obrigadas a usar em exclusividade stablecoins de euro, as restantes stablecoins serão deslistadas.

Todas estas novas regras do MiCA, são extremamente restritas, não é para garantir mais segurança aos cidadãos europeus, mas sim para garantir mais controle sobre a população. A UE está cada vez mais perto da autocracia, do que da democracia. A minha única esperança no horizonte, é que o sucesso das políticas cripto nos EUA, vai obrigar a UE a recuar e a aligeirar as regras, a teoria dos jogos é implacável. Mas esse recuo, nunca acontecerá em 2025, vai ser um longo período conturbado.

Recessão

Os mercados estão todos em máximos históricos, isto não é sustentável por muito tempo, suspeito que no final de 2025 vai acontecer alguma correção nos mercados. A queda só não será maior, porque os bancos centrais vão imprimir dinheiro, muito dinheiro, como se não houvesse amanhã. Vão voltar a resolver os problemas com a injeção de liquidez na economia, é empurrar os problemas com a barriga, em de os resolver. Outra vez o efeito Cantillon.

Será um ano muito desafiante a nível político, onde o papel dos políticos será fundamental. A crise política na França e na Alemanha, coloca a UE órfã, sem um comandante ao leme do navio. 2025 estará condicionado pelas eleições na Alemanha, sobretudo no resultado do AfD, que podem colocar em causa a propriedade UE e o euro.

Possivelmente, só o fim da guerra poderia minimizar a crise, algo que é muito pouco provável acontecer.

Em Portugal, a economia parece que está mais ou menos equilibrada, mas começam a aparecer alguns sinais preocupantes. Os jogos de sorte e azar estão em máximos históricos, batendo o recorde de 2014, época da grande crise, não é um bom sinal, possivelmente já existe algum desespero no ar.

A Alemanha é o motor da Europa, quanto espirra, Portugal constipa-se. Além do problema da Alemanha, a Espanha também está à beira de uma crise, são os países que mais influenciam a economia portuguesa.

Se existir uma recessão mundial, terá um forte impacto no turismo, que é hoje em dia o principal motor de Portugal.

Brasil

Brasil é algo para acompanhar em 2025, sobretudo a nível macro e a nível político. Existe uma possibilidade de uma profunda crise no Brasil, sobretudo na sua moeda. O banco central já anda a queimar as reservas para minimizar a desvalorização do Real.

Sem mudanças profundas nas políticas fiscais, as reservas vão se esgotar. As políticas de controle de capitais são um cenário plausível, será interesse de acompanhar, como o governo irá proceder perante a existência do Bitcoin e stablecoins. No Brasil existe um forte adoção, será um bom case study, certamente irá repetir-se em outros países num futuro próximo.

Os próximos tempos não serão fáceis para os brasileiros, especialmente para os que não têm Bitcoin.

Blockchain

Em 2025, possivelmente vamos ver os primeiros passos da BlackRock para criar a primeira bolsa de valores, exclusivamente em blockchain. Eu acredito que a BlackRock vai criar uma própria blockchain, toda controlada por si, onde estarão os RWAs, para fazer concorrência às tradicionais bolsas de valores. Será algo interessante de acompanhar.

---

Estas são as minhas previsões, eu escrevi isto muito em cima do joelho, certamente esqueci-me de algumas coisas, se for importante acrescentarei nos comentários. A maioria das previsões só acontecerá após 2025, mas fica aqui a minha opinião.

Isto é apenas a minha opinião, Don’t Trust, Verify!

@ 4c96d763:80c3ee30

Changes

William Casarin (6):

• timeline: only show one tab in hashtag timeline
• columns: navigate back when switching account
• previews: run previews as notedeck apps
• lockfile: update
• nixos: fix wayland
• query: fix since filter on kind queries

kernelkind (3):

• use hashtag icon
• use hashtag icon in hashtag col header
• Delete column confirmation

pushed to notedeck:refs/heads/master

@ f9cf4e94:96abc355

Na era das grandes navegações, piratas ingleses eram autorizados pelo governo para roubar navios.

A única coisa que diferenciava um pirata comum de um corsário é que o último possuía a “Carta do Corso”, que funcionava como um “Alvará para o roubo”, onde o governo Inglês legitimava o roubo de navios por parte dos corsários. É claro, que em troca ele exigia uma parte da espoliação.

Bastante similar com a maneira que a Receita Federal atua, não? Na verdade, o caso é ainda pior, pois o governo fica com toda a riqueza espoliada, e apenas repassa um mísero salário para os corsários modernos, os agentes da receita federal.

Porém eles “justificam” esse roubo ao chamá-lo de imposto, e isso parece acalmar os ânimos de grande parte da população, mas não de nós. Não é por acaso que 'imposto' é o particípio passado do verbo 'impor'. Ou seja, é aquilo que resulta do cumprimento obrigatório -- e não voluntário -- de todos os cidadãos. Se não for 'imposto' ninguém paga. Nem mesmo seus defensores. Isso mostra o quanto as pessoas realmente apreciam os serviços do estado.

Apenas volte um pouco na história: os primeiros pagadores de impostos eram fazendeiros cujos territórios foram invadidos por nômades que pastoreavam seu gado. Esses invasores nômades forçavam os fazendeiros a lhes pagar uma fatia de sua renda em troca de "proteção". O fazendeiro que não concordasse era assassinado.

Os nômades perceberam que era muito mais interessante e confortável apenas cobrar uma taxa de proteção em vez de matar o fazendeiro e assumir suas posses. Cobrando uma taxa, eles obtinham o que necessitavam. Já se matassem os fazendeiros, eles teriam de gerenciar por conta própria toda a produção da fazenda. Daí eles entenderam que, ao não assassinarem todos os fazendeiros que encontrassem pelo caminho, poderiam fazer desta prática um modo de vida.

Assim nasceu o governo.

Não assassinar pessoas foi o primeiro serviço que o governo forneceu. Como temos sorte em ter à nossa disposição esta instituição!

Assim, não deixa de ser curioso que algumas pessoas digam que os impostos são pagos basicamente para impedir que aconteça exatamente aquilo que originou a existência do governo. O governo nasceu da extorsão. Os fazendeiros tinham de pagar um "arrego" para seu governo. Caso contrário, eram assassinados. Quem era a real ameaça? O governo. A máfia faz a mesma coisa.

Mas existe uma forma de se proteger desses corsários modernos. Atualmente, existe uma propriedade privada que NINGUÉM pode tirar de você, ela é sua até mesmo depois da morte. É claro que estamos falando do Bitcoin. Fazendo as configurações certas, é impossível saber que você tem bitcoin. Nem mesmo o governo americano consegue saber.

brasil #bitcoinbrasil #nostrbrasil #grownostr #bitcoin

@ 16d11430:61640947

For centuries, financial markets have been shackled by an archaic mindset rooted in Newtonian physics: "What goes up must come down." This belief has dominated the thinking of old-school fiat economists, who view the rise and fall of markets as a natural cycle of gravity-bound economics. But Bitcoin, the digital phoenix, was designed to defy this outdated paradigm. It isn't just an asset class or a currency—it's a revolution in financial physics, unshackling value from centralized control and rewriting the rules of money.

The Fiat Fallacy: Gravity Economics

Fiat systems are inherently cyclical, prone to inflation, manipulation, and collapse. Central banks print money endlessly, causing value to "come down" as purchasing power erodes. For fiat thinkers, this is unavoidable—a gravitational force they accept as immutable. Yet this mindset ignores Bitcoin’s game-changing properties: its hard cap of 21 million coins, decentralized consensus, and permissionless architecture.

Bitcoin is fundamentally non-Newtonian. It doesn’t adhere to traditional financial laws because it isn't bound by the same forces of supply and control. Instead, it operates in a new paradigm: deflationary, transparent, and immune to political meddling.

Bitcoin's Escape Velocity

Bitcoin's dominance lies in its ability to achieve escape velocity. Unlike fiat currencies, which are constantly being pulled back by inflationary policies, Bitcoin is propelled by its scarcity, adoption, and network effects. Every halving event tightens the supply, creating an upward pressure that fiat systems can't replicate. And as global trust in traditional systems erodes, Bitcoin's gravitational pull grows stronger.

This phenomenon is evident in the adoption curve. Institutions, governments, and individuals worldwide are recognizing Bitcoin as a superior store of value, an inflation hedge, and the ultimate form of financial sovereignty. The more participants enter the network, the more its value compounds, creating a virtuous cycle of exponential growth.

Humiliating the Old Guard

The fiat establishment—steeped in centuries of centralized control—has long dismissed Bitcoin as a bubble, a fad, or even a Ponzi scheme. Yet, year after year, Bitcoin rises from the ashes of their predictions. Its resilience, transparency, and provable scarcity expose the fragility and corruption of fiat systems.

The ultimate humiliation for fiat thinkers is Bitcoin's ability to thrive in crises. Where traditional systems falter—be it through hyperinflation, bank failures, or geopolitical instability—Bitcoin becomes a lifeboat. It doesn’t just resist gravity; it flips the entire script. Fiat currencies are revealed as infinite-print illusions, while Bitcoin’s immutable ledger stands as the ultimate arbiter of truth and value.

A New Financial Paradigm

Bitcoin’s ascent is not merely about price; it’s about domination. It represents a shift from centralized control to individual empowerment, from opaque systems to transparent protocols, from inflationary theft to deflationary savings. It’s a financial singularity, an escape from the gravitational pull of outdated thinking.

As Bitcoin continues its trajectory, the old world of "what goes up must come down" will look increasingly absurd. In its place, a new principle will reign: what’s decentralized cannot be stopped. Bitcoin isn’t just leaving Earth’s orbit; it’s becoming the financial universe’s North Star.

So buckle up, because Bitcoin isn’t just going up—it’s transcending. And as it does, it will leave the Newtonian thinkers in the dust, staring in disbelief at the rocket that left them behind.

@ ee11a5df:b76c4e49

China

I might be wrong, but this is how I see it

This is a post within a series I am going to call "I might be wrong, but this is how I see it"

I have repeatedly found that my understanding of China is quite different from that of many libertarian-minded Americans. And so I make this post to explain how I see it. Maybe you will learn something. Maybe I will learn something.

It seems to me that many American's see America as a shining beacon of freedom with a few small problems, and China is an evil communist country spreading communism everywhere. From my perspective, America was a shining beacon of freedom that has fallen to being typical in most ways, and which is now acting as a falling empire, and China was communist for about a decade, but turned and ran away from that as fast as they could (while not admitting it) and the result is that the US and China are not much different anymore when it comes to free markets. Except they are very different in some other respects.

China has a big problem

China has a big problem. But it is not the communism problem that most Westerners diagnose.

I argue that China is no longer communist, it is only communist in name. And that while it is not a beacon of free market principles, it is nearly as free market now as Western nations like Germany and New Zealand are (being somewhat socialist themselves).

No, China's real problem is authoritarian one-party rule. And that core problem causes all of the other problems, including its human rights abuses.

Communism and Socialism

Communism and Socialism are bad ideas. I don't want to argue it right here, but most readers will already understand this. The last thing I intend to do with this post is to bolster or defend those bad ideas. If you dear reader hold a candle for socialism, let me know and I can help you extinguish it with a future "I might be wrong, but this is how I see it" installment.

Communism is the idea of structuring a society around common ownership of the means of production, distribution, and exchange, and the idea of allocating goods and services based on need. It eliminates the concept of private property, of social classes, ultimately of money and finally of the state itself.

Back under Mao in 1958-1962 (The Great Leap Forward), China tried this (in part). Some 50+ million people died. It was an abject failure.

But due to China's real problem (authoritarianism, even worship of their leaders), the leading classes never admitted this. And even today they continue to use the word "Communist" for things that aren't communist at all, as a way to save face, and also in opposition to the United States of America and Europe.

Authorities are not eager to admit their faults. But this is not just a Chinese fault, it is a fault in human nature that affects all countries. The USA still refuses to admit they assassinated their own president JFK. They do not admit they bombed the Nord Stream pipeline.

China defines "socialism with Chinese characteristics" to mean "the leadership of the Communist Party of China". So they still keep the words socialism and communism, but they long ago dropped the meanings of those words. I'm not sure if this is a political ploy against us in the West or not.

China's Marketplace Today

Today China exhibits very few of the properties of communism.

They have some common ownership and state enterprises, but not much differently than Western countries (New Zealand owns Air New Zealand and Kiwibank and Kiwirail, etc). And there are private enterprises all over China. They compete and some succeed and some fail. You might hear about a real-estate bank collapsing. China has private property. They have mostly free markets. They have money, and the most definitely have social classes and a very strong state.

None of that is inline with what communist thinkers want. Communist thinkers in China moan that China has turned away from communism.

Deng Xiaoping who succeeded Mao and attempted to correct the massive mistake, did much when he said "to get rich is glorious."

China achieved staggering rates of economic growth. 10% annually on average since 1977. Chinese economic reform started in 1979 and has continued through successive administrations (Deng, Jiang, Hu and now Xi).

China is now the world's largest economy (by GDP in PPP terms) since 2016.

I was first made aware of China's economic growth by Jim Rogers, an American commodities expert who travelled through China (and the rest of the world from 1990-1992) and in 2007 moved to Singapore where he ensured his daughters learned to speak Mandarin, because Jim knew where the economic growth was going to happen. Jim always spoke positively of China's economic prospects, and his view was so different from the "China is a nasty communist place" view that I had grown up with that my mind opened.

How can anybody believe they are still a communist country? In what world does it make sense that communism can produce such a massively booming economy? It doesn't make sense because it is simply wrong.

What does happen is that the CPC interferes. It lets the market do what markets do, but it interferes where it thinks oversight and regulation would produce a better result.

Western nations interfere with their markets too. They have oversight and regulation. In fact some of China's planned reforms had to be put on hold by Xi due to Donald Trump's trade war with China. That's right, they were trying to be even more free market than America, but America's protectionism prodded Xi to keep control so he could fight back efficiently.

Government oversight and regulation IMHO is mostly bad because it gets out of control, and there are no market forces to correct this. This gets even more extreme in a one-party system, so I can judge that China's oversight and regulation problems are very likely worse than those in Western nations (but I have no first hand experience or evidence).

Why do you keep saying CPC?

The Communist Party of China (CPC) is the ruling party in China. That is their official name. To call them the CCP is to concede to the idea that the British and Americans get to name everybody. I'm not sure who is right, since CPC or CCP is their "English" name (in Chinese it is 中国共产党 and Westernized it is Zhōngguó Gòngchǎndǎng). Nonetheless, I'll call them CPC because that is their wish.

Social Credit System

China moved from a planned economy to a market economy in stages. They didn't want any more sudden changes (can you blame them?). In the process, many institutions that have existed in the West for a long time didn't exist in China and they had to arise somehow. IMHO market forces would have brought these about in the private sector, but the one-party CP of China instead decided to create these.

One of those institutions was a credit score system. In the West we have TransUnion and Equifax that maintain credit ratings on people, and we have S&P, Moody's and Fitch that maintain credit ratings on companies. The domain of these ratings is their financial credit-worthiness.

So the People's Bank of China developed a credit information database for it's own needs. The government picked up on the idea and started moving towards a National Credit Management System. In 2004 it became an official goal to establish a credit system compatible with a modern market system. By 2006 banks were required to report on consumer creditworthiness.

But unchecked one-party governmental power will often take a good idea (credit worthiness data shared among private parties) and systematize it and apply it top-down, creating a solution and a new problem at the same time.

Nonetheless, originally it was about credit worthiness and also criminal convictions. That is no big scary thing that some right-wing American commentators will lead you to believe. In the US for example criminal records are public, so China's Social Credit System started out being no more over-reaching in scope than what Americans have lived under their entire lives, its only fault (a severe one) being centrally planned. And that remained the case up until about 2016 (in my estimation).

But of course there is always scope creep. As it exists today, I have reason to believe that CPC officials and even A.I. use judgement calls to score someone on how moral that person has been! Of course that is not a good idea, and IMHO the problem stems from one-party rule, and authoritarian administration of ideas that should instead be handled by the private sector.

Environmental, Social, and Governance

ESG is a system that came out of a couple basic ideas. The first is that many two-party transactions actually have externalities. They don't just affect the two parties, they also affect everybody else. When you fly in an airplane, you increase the CO2 in the atmosphere that everybody has to pay for (eventually). You may dispute that example, but that is no doubt one of the motivations of ESG.

But of course the recognition of this basic issue didn't lead all people towards market solutions (well it did, but those have been mostly messed up by others), but instead led many people towards ESG, which is a social credit scoring system which applies scores based on environmental and social side-effects of market transactions.

This is not at all the same as China's social credit system, which I described above. I hope you can see the difference.

In fact, China imported ESG from the West. Chinese companies, of their free will, in an attempt to court Western capital, achieve ESG goals for those Western investors. They have been playing this ESG game for 20 years just like the entire world has, because the West has imposed this faux-morality upon them. It isn't something China exported to us, it is something we exported to them.

I think China has avoided Woke-ism

My understanding of Chinese people, based on what I've heard many Chinese people say, is that China isn't affected by the Western woke-ism epidemic. They deride Western white woke people with the term "Baizuo". They have never sent an incompetent break dancer to the Olympics because of wok-ism. Competence is highly respected as is the competition to be the most competent, which (when augmented by a one-child policy which is no longer) has produced child prodigies like no other country has.

What about predatory loans of the Belt and Road initiative?

Predatory is an odd name for loans to people in need. The World Bank makes loans to people in need. China does too. China stands in opposition to Western Empire, and in that regard they produce their own alternative BRICS institutions. This is one of them.

There is AFAIK nothing more predatory about them. It is just that in some cases the borrowers have trouble paying them back and they get foreclosed upon. I don't think this is worthy of much discussion, except that the term "predatory" seems to me to be a propaganda device.

What about foreign influence from China?

China wants to influence the world, especially its own trading partners and potential trading partners. Doing that above board is fine by me.

But some of it is undoubtedly covert. Sometimes Chinese-born people run for public office in Western countries. In New Zealand we stood down some when it became clear they were being influenced too much by the CPC while being charged with representing their local town (dual loyalty issues). If only the USA would do the same thing to their dually-loyal politicians.

And all large nations run influence operations. The USA has the CIA, for example, and claims this "soft power" is actually the better alternative to what would otherwise be military intervention (but IMHO shouldn't be either). I'm not defending such operations (I despise them), I'm just explaining how China's position of exerting influence is not only no big deal and totally expected, it pales in comparison to the United States' influence operations which often become military excursions (something China rarely ever does).

What about the Great Firewall?

Yeah, that sucks. Again, single-party authoritarian control gone to extremes.

What about Human Rights Abuses? What about the Uyghur Genocide?

I don't like them. To the extent they are occurring (and I lean towards the belief that they are occurring), I condemn them.

China has anti-terrorism and anti-extremism policies that go too far. They end up oppressing and/or criminalizing cultures that aren't Chinese enough. But especially, China punishes dissent. Disagreement with the CPC is the high crime. It is the one-party rule that causes this problem. Anybody who speaks out against the CPC or goes against the state in any way is harshly punished. This happens to Uyghurs, to Falun Gong, to Tibetans, and to any religion that is seen as subversive.

Amnesty International and the UN OHCHR have documented issues around the Xinjiang Uyghur autonomous region, Tibet, LGBT rights, death penalty, workers rights, and the Hong Kong special administrative region. I am not about to pretend I know better than they do, but to some extent they go too far.

Amnesty International says this about the USA: Discrimination and violence against LGBTI people were widespread and anti-LGBTI legislation increased. Bills were introduced to address reparations regarding slavery and its legacies. Multiple states implemented total bans on abortion or severely limited access to it. Gender-based violence disproportionately affected Indigenous women. Access to the USA for asylum seekers and migrants was still fraught with obstacles, but some nationalities continued to enjoy Temporary Protected Status. Moves were made to restrict the freedom to protest in a number of states. Black people were disproportionately affected by the use of lethal force by police. No progress was made in the abolition of the death penalty, apart from in Washington. Arbitrary and indefinite detention in the US naval base Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, continued. Despite extensive gun violence, no further firearm reform policies were considered, but President Biden did announce the creation of the White House Office of Gun Violence Prevention. The USA continued to use lethal force in countries around the world. Black people, other racialized groups and low-income people bore the brunt of the health impacts of the petrochemical industry, and the use of fossil fuels continued unabated.

Amnesty international didn't even point out that the US government quashes free speech via pressure on social media corporations (because Amnesty International is far too lefty).

So who is worse, China or the US? I'm not going to make that judgement call, but suffice it to say that in my mind, China is not obviously worse.

China violates freedom of expression, association, and assembly of all people. This is bad, and a consequence mainly of one-party rule (again, what I think is the root cause of most of their ills). They arrest, detain, potentially kill anybody who publicly disagrees openly with their government. Clearly this is an excess of authoritarianism, a cancer that is very advanced in China.

As to organ harvesting of Uyghur Muslims, I think this is a myth.

China has dealt harshly with Muslim extremism. They don't offer freedom of religion to ISIS. And Amnesty International complains about that. But practically speaking you probably shouldn't respect the extremist religion of people who want to force everybody into a global caliphate through threat of violence. As you are well aware, some extremist Muslims (<1% of Islam) believe in using violence to bring about a global caliphate. Those extremists pop up in every country and are usually dealt with harshly. China has had to deal with them too.

I have watched two different Western YouTubers travel to Xinjiang province trying to find the oppressed Uyghurs and interview them. They can't find them. What they find instead are Uyghur Muslims doing their prayers five times a day at the local mosque. And also stories that the CPC pitched in some money to help them renovate the mosque. Maybe they were afraid it was a CPC trap and so they wouldn't speak freely. Amnesty International and the UN OHCHR say more than a million are "arbitrarily detained" and I'm not going to argue otherwise. But I'd be more convinced if there were a stream of pictures and news like there is out of Gaza, and it is suspicious that there isn't.

Conclusion

China is more like a Western nation that Westerners realize. Economically, militarily, socially. It still has a very serious obstacle to overcome: one-party rule. I don't think the one-party is going to voluntarily give up power. So most probably at some point in the future there will be a revolution. But in my opinion it won't happen anytime soon. For the most part Chinese people are living high on the hog, getting rich, enjoying the good life, in positive spirits about life, and are getting along with their government quite well at present.

@ 16d11430:61640947

At the intersection of philosophy, theology, physics, biology, and finance lies a terrifying truth: the fiat monetary system, in its current form, is not just an economic framework but a silent, relentless force actively working against humanity's survival. It isn't simply a failed financial model—it is a systemic engine of destruction, both externally and within the very core of our biological existence.

The Philosophical Void of Fiat

Philosophy has long questioned the nature of value and the meaning of human existence. From Socrates to Kant, thinkers have pondered the pursuit of truth, beauty, and virtue. But in the modern age, the fiat system has hijacked this discourse. The notion of "value" in a fiat world is no longer rooted in human potential or natural resources—it is abstracted, manipulated, and controlled by central authorities with the sole purpose of perpetuating their own power. The currency is not a reflection of society’s labor or resources; it is a representation of faith in an authority that, more often than not, breaks that faith with reckless monetary policies and hidden inflation.

The fiat system has created a kind of ontological nihilism, where the idea of true value, rooted in work, creativity, and family, is replaced with speculative gambling and short-term gains. This betrayal of human purpose at the systemic level feeds into a philosophical despair: the relentless devaluation of effort, the erosion of trust, and the abandonment of shared human values. In this nihilistic economy, purpose and meaning become increasingly difficult to find, leaving millions to question the very foundation of their existence.

Theological Implications: Fiat and the Collapse of the Sacred

Religious traditions have long linked moral integrity with the stewardship of resources and the preservation of life. Fiat currency, however, corrupts these foundational beliefs. In the theological narrative of creation, humans are given dominion over the Earth, tasked with nurturing and protecting it for future generations. But the fiat system promotes the exact opposite: it commodifies everything—land, labor, and life—treating them as mere transactions on a ledger.

This disrespect for creation is an affront to the divine. In many theologies, creation is meant to be sustained, a delicate balance that mirrors the harmony of the divine order. Fiat systems—by continuously printing money and driving inflation—treat nature and humanity as expendable resources to be exploited for short-term gains, leading to environmental degradation and societal collapse. The creation narrative, in which humans are called to be stewards, is inverted. The fiat system, through its unholy alliance with unrestrained growth and unsustainable debt, is destroying the very creation it should protect.

Furthermore, the fiat system drives idolatry of power and wealth. The central banks and corporations that control the money supply have become modern-day gods, their decrees shaping the lives of billions, while the masses are enslaved by debt and inflation. This form of worship isn't overt, but it is profound. It leads to a world where people place their faith not in God or their families, but in the abstract promises of institutions that serve their own interests.

Physics and the Infinite Growth Paradox

Physics teaches us that the universe is finite—resources, energy, and space are all limited. Yet, the fiat system operates under the delusion of infinite growth. Central banks print money without concern for natural limits, encouraging an economy that assumes unending expansion. This is not only an economic fallacy; it is a physical impossibility.

In thermodynamics, the Second Law states that entropy (disorder) increases over time in any closed system. The fiat system operates as if the Earth were an infinite resource pool, perpetually able to expand without consequence. The real world, however, does not bend to these abstract concepts of infinite growth. Resources are finite, ecosystems are fragile, and human capacity is limited. Fiat currency, by promoting unsustainable consumption and growth, accelerates the depletion of resources and the degradation of natural systems that support life itself.

Even the financial “growth” driven by fiat policies leads to unsustainable bubbles—inflated stock markets, real estate, and speculative assets that burst and leave ruin in their wake. These crashes aren’t just economic—they have profound biological consequences. The cycles of boom and bust undermine communities, erode social stability, and increase anxiety and depression, all of which affect human health at a biological level.

Biology: The Fiat System and the Destruction of Human Health

Biologically, the fiat system is a cancerous growth on human society. The constant chase for growth and the devaluation of work leads to chronic stress, which is one of the leading causes of disease in modern society. The strain of living in a system that values speculation over well-being results in a biological feedback loop: rising anxiety, poor mental health, physical diseases like cardiovascular disorders, and a shortening of lifespans.

Moreover, the focus on profit and short-term returns creates a biological disconnect between humans and the planet. The fiat system fuels industries that destroy ecosystems, increase pollution, and deplete resources at unsustainable rates. These actions are not just environmentally harmful; they directly harm human biology. The degradation of the environment—whether through toxic chemicals, pollution, or resource extraction—has profound biological effects on human health, causing respiratory diseases, cancers, and neurological disorders.

The biological cost of the fiat system is not a distant theory; it is being paid every day by millions in the form of increased health risks, diseases linked to stress, and the growing burden of mental health disorders. The constant uncertainty of an inflation-driven economy exacerbates these conditions, creating a society of individuals whose bodies and minds are under constant strain. We are witnessing a systemic biological unraveling, one in which the very act of living is increasingly fraught with pain, instability, and the looming threat of collapse.

Finance as the Final Illusion

At the core of the fiat system is a fundamental illusion—that financial growth can occur without any real connection to tangible value. The abstraction of currency, the manipulation of interest rates, and the constant creation of new money hide the underlying truth: the system is built on nothing but faith. When that faith falters, the entire system collapses.

This illusion has become so deeply embedded that it now defines the human experience. Work no longer connects to production or creation—it is reduced to a transaction on a spreadsheet, a means to acquire more fiat currency in a world where value is ephemeral and increasingly disconnected from human reality.

As we pursue ever-expanding wealth, the fundamental truths of biology—interdependence, sustainability, and balance—are ignored. The fiat system’s abstract financial models serve to disconnect us from the basic realities of life: that we are part of an interconnected world where every action has a reaction, where resources are finite, and where human health, both mental and physical, depends on the stability of our environment and our social systems.

The Ultimate Extermination

In the end, the fiat system is not just an economic issue; it is a biological, philosophical, theological, and existential threat to the very survival of humanity. It is a force that devalues human effort, encourages environmental destruction, fosters inequality, and creates pain at the core of the human biological condition. It is an economic framework that leads not to prosperity, but to extermination—not just of species, but of the very essence of human well-being.

To continue on this path is to accept the slow death of our species, one based not on natural forces, but on our own choice to worship the abstract over the real, the speculative over the tangible. The fiat system isn't just a threat; it is the ultimate self-inflicted wound, a cultural and financial cancer that, if left unchecked, will destroy humanity’s chance for survival and peace.

@ a367f9eb:0633efea

I’ll admit that I was wrong about Bitcoin. Perhaps in 2013. Definitely 2017. Probably in 2018-2019. And maybe even today.

Being wrong about Bitcoin is part of finally understanding it. It will test you, make you question everything, and in the words of BTC educator and privacy advocate Matt Odell, “Bitcoin will humble you”.

I’ve had my own stumbles on the way.

In a very public fashion in 2017, after years of using Bitcoin, trying to start a company with it, using it as my primary exchange vehicle between currencies, and generally being annoying about it at parties, I let out the bear.

In an article published in my own literary magazine Devolution Review in September 2017, I had a breaking point. The article was titled “Going Bearish on Bitcoin: Cryptocurrencies are the tulip mania of the 21st century”.

It was later republished in Huffington Post and across dozens of financial and crypto blogs at the time with another, more appropriate title: “Bitcoin Has Become About The Payday, Not Its Potential”.

As I laid out, my newfound bearishness had little to do with the technology itself or the promise of Bitcoin, and more to do with the cynical industry forming around it:

In the beginning, Bitcoin was something of a revolution to me. The digital currency represented everything from my rebellious youth.

It was a decentralized, denationalized, and digital currency operating outside the traditional banking and governmental system. It used tools of cryptography and connected buyers and sellers across national borders at minimal transaction costs.

…

The 21st-century version (of Tulip mania) has welcomed a plethora of slick consultants, hazy schemes dressed up as investor possibilities, and too much wishy-washy language for anything to really make sense to anyone who wants to use a digital currency to make purchases.

While I called out Bitcoin by name at the time, on reflection, I was really talking about the ICO craze, the wishy-washy consultants, and the altcoin ponzis.

What I was articulating — without knowing it — was the frame of NgU, or “numbers go up”. Rather than advocating for Bitcoin because of its uncensorability, proof-of-work, or immutability, the common mentality among newbies and the dollar-obsessed was that Bitcoin mattered because its price was a rocket ship.

And because Bitcoin was gaining in price, affinity tokens and projects that were imperfect forks of Bitcoin took off as well.

The price alone — rather than its qualities — were the reasons why you’d hear Uber drivers, finance bros, or your gym buddy mention Bitcoin. As someone who came to Bitcoin for philosophical reasons, that just sat wrong with me.

Maybe I had too many projects thrown in my face, or maybe I was too frustrated with the UX of Bitcoin apps and sites at the time. No matter what, I’ve since learned something.

I was at least somewhat wrong.

My own journey began in early 2011. One of my favorite radio programs, Free Talk Live, began interviewing guests and having discussions on the potential of Bitcoin. They tied it directly to a libertarian vision of the world: free markets, free people, and free banking. That was me, and I was in. Bitcoin was at about $5 back then (NgU).

I followed every article I could, talked about it with guests on my college radio show, and became a devoted redditor on r/Bitcoin. At that time, at least to my knowledge, there was no possible way to buy Bitcoin where I was living. Very weak.

I was probably wrong. And very wrong for not trying to acquire by mining or otherwise.

The next year, after moving to Florida, Bitcoin was a heavy topic with a friend of mine who shared the same vision (and still does, according to the Celsius bankruptcy documents). We talked about it with passionate leftists at Occupy Tampa in 2012, all the while trying to explain the ills of Keynesian central banking, and figuring out how to use Coinbase.

I began writing more about Bitcoin in 2013, writing a guide on “How to Avoid Bank Fees Using Bitcoin,” discussing its potential legalization in Germany, and interviewing Jeremy Hansen, one of the first political candidates in the U.S. to accept Bitcoin donations.

Even up until that point, I thought Bitcoin was an interesting protocol for sending and receiving money quickly, and converting it into fiat. The global connectedness of it, plus this cypherpunk mentality divorced from government control was both useful and attractive. I thought it was the perfect go-between.

But I was wrong.

When I gave my first public speech on Bitcoin in Vienna, Austria in December 2013, I had grown obsessed with Bitcoin’s adoption on dark net markets like Silk Road.

My theory, at the time, was the number and price were irrelevant. The tech was interesting, and a novel attempt. It was unlike anything before. But what was happening on the dark net markets, which I viewed as the true free market powered by Bitcoin, was even more interesting. I thought these markets would grow exponentially and anonymous commerce via BTC would become the norm.

While the price was irrelevant, it was all about buying and selling goods without permission or license.

Now I understand I was wrong.

Just because Bitcoin was this revolutionary technology that embraced pseudonymity did not mean that all commerce would decentralize as well. It did not mean that anonymous markets were intended to be the most powerful layer in the Bitcoin stack.

What I did not even anticipate is something articulated very well by noted Bitcoin OG Pierre Rochard: Bitcoin as a savings technology.

The ability to maintain long-term savings, practice self-discipline while stacking stats, and embrace a low-time preference was just not something on the mind of the Bitcoiners I knew at the time.

Perhaps I was reading into the hype while outwardly opposing it. Or perhaps I wasn’t humble enough to understand the true value proposition that many of us have learned years later.

In the years that followed, I bought and sold more times than I can count, and I did everything to integrate it into passion projects. I tried to set up a company using Bitcoin while at my university in Prague.

My business model depended on university students being technologically advanced enough to have a mobile wallet, own their keys, and be able to make transactions on a consistent basis. Even though I was surrounded by philosophically aligned people, those who would advance that to actually put Bitcoin into practice were sparse.

This is what led me to proclaim that “Technological Literacy is Doomed” in 2016.

And I was wrong again.

Indeed, since that time, the UX of Bitcoin-only applications, wallets, and supporting tech has vastly improved and onboarded millions more people than anyone thought possible. The entrepreneurship, coding excellence, and vision offered by Bitcoiners of all stripes have renewed a sense in me that this project is something built for us all — friends and enemies alike.

While many of us were likely distracted by flashy and pumpy altcoins over the years (me too, champs), most of us have returned to the Bitcoin stable.

Fast forward to today, there are entire ecosystems of creators, activists, and developers who are wholly reliant on the magic of Bitcoin’s protocol for their life and livelihood. The options are endless. The FUD is still present, but real proof of work stands powerfully against those forces.

In addition, there are now dozens of ways to use Bitcoin privately — still without custodians or intermediaries — that make it one of the most important assets for global humanity, especially in dictatorships.

This is all toward a positive arc of innovation, freedom, and pure independence. Did I see that coming? Absolutely not.

Of course, there are probably other shots you’ve missed on Bitcoin. Price predictions (ouch), the short-term inflation hedge, or the amount of institutional investment. While all of these may be erroneous predictions in the short term, we have to realize that Bitcoin is a long arc. It will outlive all of us on the planet, and it will continue in its present form for the next generation.

Being wrong about the evolution of Bitcoin is no fault, and is indeed part of the learning curve to finally understanding it all.

When your family or friends ask you about Bitcoin after your endless sessions explaining market dynamics, nodes, how mining works, and the genius of cryptographic signatures, try to accept that there is still so much we have to learn about this decentralized digital cash.

There are still some things you’ve gotten wrong about Bitcoin, and plenty more you’ll underestimate or get wrong in the future. That’s what makes it a beautiful journey. It’s a long road, but one that remains worth it.

@ ec42c765:328c0600

この記事は前回の内容を把握している人向けに書いています（特にNostrエクステンション（NIP-07）導入）

前回：Nostrのカスタム絵文字の使い方

手順

1. 登録する画像を用意する
2. 画像をweb上にアップロードする
3. 絵文字セットに登録する

1. 登録する画像を用意する

以下のような方法で用意してください。

• 画像編集ソフト等を使って自分で作成する
• 絵文字作成サイトを使う（絵文字ジェネレーター、MEGAMOJI など）
• フリー画像を使う（いらすとや など）

データ量削減

Nostrでは画像をそのまま表示するクライアントが多いので、データ量が大きな画像をそのまま使うとモバイル通信時などに負担がかかります。

データ量を増やさないためにサイズやファイル形式を変更することをおすすめします。

以下は私のおすすめです。 * サイズ：正方形 128×128 ピクセル、長方形 任意の横幅×128 ピクセル * ファイル形式：webp形式（webp変換おすすめサイト toimg） * 単色、単純な画像の場合：png形式（webpにするとむしろサイズが大きくなる）

その他

• 背景透過画像
• ダークモード、ライトモード両方で見やすい色

がおすすめです。

2. 画像をweb上にアップロードする

よく分からなければ emojito からのアップロードで問題ないです。
普段使っている画像アップロード先があるならそれでも構いません。
気になる方はアップロード先を適宜選んでください。

既に投稿されたカスタム絵文字の画像に対して

• 削除も差し替えもできない → emojito など
• 削除できるが差し替えはできない → Gyazo、nostrcheck.meなど
• 削除も差し替えもできる → GitHub 、セルフホスティングなど

これらは既にNostr上に投稿されたカスタム絵文字の画像を後から変更できるかどうかを指します。
どの方法でも新しく使われるカスタム絵文字を変更することは可能です。
同一のカスタム絵文字セットに同一のショートコードで別の画像を登録する形で対応できます。

3. 絵文字セットに登録する

emojito から登録します。

右上のアイコン → + New emoji set から新規の絵文字セットを作成できます。

① 絵文字セット名を入力

基本的にカスタム絵文字はカスタム絵文字セットを作り、ひとまとまりにして登録します。

一度作った絵文字セットに後から絵文字を追加することもできます。

② 画像をアップロードまたは画像URLを入力

emojitoから画像をアップロードする場合、ファイル名に日本語などの2バイト文字が含まれているとアップロードがエラーになるようです。

その場合はファイル名を適当な英数字などに変更してください。

③ 絵文字のショートコードを入力

ショートコードは絵文字を呼び出す時に使用する場合があります。

他のカスタム絵文字と被っても問題ありませんが選択時に複数表示されて支障が出る可能性があります。

他と被りにくく長くなりすぎないショートコードが良いかもしれません。

ショートコードに使えるのは半角の英数字とアンダーバーのみです。

④ 追加

Add を押してもまだ作成完了にはなりません。

一度に絵文字を複数登録できます。

最後に右上の Save を押すと作成完了です。

画面が切り替わるので、右側の Options から Bookmark を選択するとそのカスタム絵文字セットを自分で使えるようになります。

既存の絵文字セットを編集するには Options から Edit を選択します。

以上です。

---

仕様

NIP-30 Custom Emoji

NIP-30 カスタム絵文字（和訳）

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na startit.rs

29.12.2017 / Autor: Danilo Backović

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Esej koji obrađuje konceptualne osnove Bitkoina, njegovu istorijsku ulogu i odnos sa klasičnim monetarnim sistemom.

Bitkoin, banke i suverenost individue

Kratak dijalog o dva monetarna sistema sveta napisan u čast petstogodišnjice kačenja Luterovih “95 teza” na vrata crkve Svih Svetih u Vitenbergu.

Šta je Bitkoin i ko je tu gazda uopšte?

Niko. Niko od nas i svi mi zajedno. To je “samo” softver koji radi na računarima svih onih koji žele da se pridruže. Ni od koga ti ne treba dozvola. Ne postoji meta gde naciljati Tomahavk.

Po svetu postoji toliko kopija ove računovodstvene knjige da ona može preživeti nuklearni udar (u žargonu se to zove “bubašvaba protokol”). Bitkoin se može preneti na računaru, mejlom, pismom, u glavi, u slici (steganografija), radio talasima… Jedna firma je čak platila lansiranje satelitskog repetitora koji pokriva Evropu, sever Afrike i dobar deo Azije namenjenog samo za prosleđivanje bitkoin transakcija.

Korišćenje je besplatno. Ovakav softver se zove distribuiran, jer nema jedan ili više centara sa privilegovanim učesnicima.

I Gutenbergova štamparska mašina je bila “samo” miks malo preciznog livenja, obrade drveta, poluge i tinte, začinjena cutting-edge telekomunikacionom tehnologijom tog doba — hartijom, ali ta otrovna kombinacija je promenila svet zauvek. Decentralizovala je pristup znanju i oslobodila najvažniju mrežu među ljudima od pisarskih centara moći — jezičku.

Bitkoin koristeći se novom Gutenbergovom mašinom — internetom, oslobađa drugu najvažniju mrežu među ljudima — novčanu, koja prenosi signal o vrednosti.

Ne razumem. Kako to radi samo od sebe?

Soft skillovi su mrtvi, pripremi se na vreme za svet u kome caruje matematika. Doba disidenata pisaca, novinara, pesnika i glumaca je prošlo. Svako može da shvati, treba samo malo napora i želje.

Sama srž ove tehnologije leži u zakonima brojeva. Koliko je koren iz 4? Dva? Sedi jedan. +/- 2 je tačan odgovor, jer parna stepena funkcija gubi informaciju o znaku.

Koren je čudna funkcija. Problem kvadriranja dvojke, 2^2 ne možeš tek tako da rešiš unazad (inverzno). Možda sam ja krenuo od -2? Moraš da znaš neki dodatni uslov da bi izabrao pravu granu korena (pozitivnu ili negativnu), ili da probaš obe. Na kompjuteru ne bi mnogo potrajalo da zaista probaš obe grane.

Ali! Postoji čitav jedan skup algoritama koji se zovu “kriptografske heš funkcije” (H). Pođimo od apsurdno velikog broja P (na primer od 55 cifara), stavimo ga u takav algoritam H i neka je rešenje broj J = H(P). Ovi algoritmi imaju čudesnu osobinu ireverzibilnosti.

To znači da, imao li čak i najjači mogući sekvencijalni kompjuter, ne najjači postojeći, nego najjači koji termodinamika dozvoljava, u nameri da rešiš ovaj problem unazad, znajući J, a želeći da otkriješ P od koga smo krenuli ( P = H^-1(J) ) trebalo bi ti otprilike onoliko vremena koliko je Svemiru ostalo do njegove konačne termodinamičke smrti. Ovakav algoritam u bitkoinu ima dve ključne uloge:

• On čuva tvoju imovinu od drugih, tako da svako može da pristupi toj računovodstvenoj knjizi (zamisli da banka dozvoli da svako pristupi njenoj bazi podataka), a da opet ne može da ti je uzme. Zato bitkoinu ne trebaju adresa, zaposleni, direktori, obezbeđenje i revizori.

• On čuva tuđu imovinu od tebe jer te sprečava da falsifikuješ transakciju i probaš dva puta da potrošiš isti novčić, kroz genijalno Satošijevo otkriće dokaza o radu (proof of work ili Nakamoto konsenzus). Novčana mreža je primer tzv. Vizantijske mreže, u kojoj se učesnici ne smatraju kooperantima nego suparnicima. Nakamoto konsenzus je rešenje kako ta mreža dolazi do zaključka šta je istina, kolika je nečija imovina, bez da nekome mora da se preda poverenje da za nas vodi tu knjigu evidencije imovine!

Sve do bloka postanja (genesis block) 3. januara 2009, morali smo da imamo računovođu (banka) kome predajemo poverenje da za nas vodi računovodstvenu knjigu. Ako on kaže prodavcu da ti imaš dinar kojim kupuješ robu, prodavac će mu verovati i robu će ti dati. Sada umesto poverenja imamo zakone brojeva.

Bitkoin je jedna računovodstvena knjiga za celu planetu, agnostična na državne regulative i konačno, hvala Bogu, ne zahteva računovođu. Oci prosvetiteljstva su nam dali “Liberté, égalité, fraternité” i upozorili na vreme da je predstavnički sistem samo najmanje loša aproksimacija demokratije, zato je naš doprinos: Vires in numeris!

Bojim se da mi i dalje ništa nije jasno.

Većina nas seda u avion u nadi da će poleteti. Ne moraš znati dinamiku fluida da bi negde otputovao. Daleko je prostije biti korisnik bitkoina nego klijent banke. Za koju godinu koristićeš neki finansijski proizvod, a da ni ne znaš da u pozadini radi bitkoin.

Ali ako želiš da saznaš trebaće ti ne više od par nedelja da shvatiš najvažnije tehničke detalje. Za matematičku suštinu malo više od toga, ali ne moraš ići toliko duboko. To je zato što je on slobodna, potpuno otvorena tehnologija.

Reci mi, gde to čovek može da sazna kako funkcioniše naš trenutni monetarni sistem, ta “džungla konfuzije” (Kejns)? Akademija i dalje predaje neistinu, da se Sunce vrti oko Zemlje (da je depozit stariji od kredita).

Kako to misliš: “Bitkoin oslobađa novac”?

To je pravo pitanje i najvažnija poruka: Društvo je samo jedan veoma kompleksan graf. Svaki proces u društvu se može opisati učesnicima i njihovim vezama. Školovanje, vađenje pasoša, matičenje rođenih, venčanih, umrlih, katastar, uprava, carina, itd…

Bez obzira na to što su neki procesi vrlo prosti, a neki beznadežno kompleksni, svi oni imaju jednu zajedničku osobinu da sačinjavaju hijerarhijski graf. To znači, da svaka od ovih procedura da bi funkcionisala ima u osnovi neku listu ili knjigu evidencije (ledger), a nad njom piramidu odgovornih ljudi sa pravom upisa u nju koji su pečatom, potpisom ili “ok” dugmetom garanti istine (da je diploma odbranjena, carina plaćena, da se imovina poseduje, da je dete rođeno, ugovor važeći itd…).

Ti ljudi su predstavnici kojima predajemo poverenje.

Sve do interneta ljudi nisu imali drugi izbor da se umrežavaju osim ovog hijerarhijskog — predstavničkog (sa izuzetkom primitivnih plemenskih mikrozajednica). U ovakvoj topologiji mreže postoji nezgodan fenomen koji se zove korupcija.

To je zloupotreba mreže od strane nekog od predstavnika. I nije stvar mentaliteta nego je inherentni fenomen takve geometrije mreže.

U svakom društvu postoje ubice koje se šetaju sa diplomatskim pasošima, mrtvi glasači, lažne diplome… Internet je prva horizontalna topologija umrežavanja ljudi u istoriji, a Bitkoin monetarni sistem koji koristi ovu osobinu interneta (peer-to-peer) kako bi izbacio posrednike iz novčane transakcije.

To je, po dizajnu, necenzorabilan, transnacionalan, nehakabilan, u potpunosti definisan monetarni sistem koji ne zahteva predaju poverenja posrednicima da bi funkcionisao (trustless/no counterparty risk). U srcu sistema je nesvakidašnje otkriće digitalne oskudnosti.

Gde je registrovan?

Bitkoin nije pravno lice, nije forex kockanje, ni akcija na berzi. Bitkoin je algoritam. Kao Pitagorina teorema. Znanje koje se više ne može vratiti nazad u bocu, niti se ljudi mogu naterati da se od njega oduče.

Bitkoin sa velikim “B” je protokol, to je nova vrsta baze podataka bez administratora, u kojoj svaki korisnik ima istu ulogu i koja ima token (žeton, unos u bazi, to je bitkoin sa malim “b”) koji može da menja vlasnika.

Dinamika kreiranja tokena tokom vremena je regulisana protokolom, neizmenjiva od bilo kog korisnika i njihova količina nakon završetka te emisije će biti 21 milion. On je prvi programabilni novac. U transakciji se može implementirati i neka obligacija (ugovor), ne samo prosta razmena.

Znači to su neki virtuelni žetoni upotrebljivi na internetu?

“Virtuelni” je omiljeni pridev korporativnih medija. Nije virtuelna nego kriptovaluta jer ga kriptografija čini mogućim i daleko realnijom od depozitnog novca.

Ovaj token nije obična informacija kao što je to mp3 fajl ili računovodstvena stavka na pasivi bilansa privatnog lica sa državnom licencom za depozitne poslove (banka).

To je inertna informacija, jer joj treba minimum fizičkog rada (pod “fizički” se misli na veličinu u fizici) da bi nastala i pokrenula se. Kao zlato, samo bez mase. Naučili smo da ovaplotimo informaciju, napravimo od nje oskudnu tvar. I to je jedna divna istorijska simetrija.

Moderna nauka — Galilejeva fizika je počela shvatanjem inertnosti materije, od toga da je pravolinijsko kretanje ravnomernom brzinom osnovno, ne kružno kao što su mislile tadašnje usijane akademske glave, zato što je ono enciklika na “savršenoj nebeskoj sferi”. Otuda i jeretička kovanica za “nebesku mehaniku” Johana Keplera.

Otkriće i otimanje kriptografskih heš funkcija od države, zasluga Sajferpankera, modernih Pitagorejaca, i njihov religiozni odnos prema kriptografiji, doveo nas je do otkrića inertne informacije i to će otvoriti novu veliku stranicu istorije u kojoj je kriptografija osnov organizacije društva.

Još uvek joj nismo dali ime, ali dobar kandidat je period omoćenja ili suverenosti individue. Jer se istorija ne ponavlja, ali se rimuje (enlightment — prosvetiteljstvo, empowerment — omoćenje).

Ali ne smeju se tek tako dozvoliti te slobode, nastaće haos. Šta ako posluže za kupovinu droge i pranje novca?

Anonimnost transakcije nije privilegija nego pravo koje treba braniti životom. Prva rečenica manifesta Sajferpank pokreta je: “Privatnost je neophodan uslov za otvoreno društvo informatičkog doba. Privatnost nije tajna. Privatna stvar je nešto što se ne želi podeliti sa celim svetom, tajna je nešto što se ne želi podeliti ni sa kim. Privatnost je moć selektivnog otkrivanja sebe svetu“.

Svako ko se odriče prava na privatnost, jer “nema šta da krije” se ne razlikuje od onoga ko se odriče prava na slobodu govora jer “nema šta pametno da kaže” (Edvard Snouden).

Ovog trenutka banka zna više o vama od vas samih. I to je posledica dizajna depozitnog novca. Dve najvažnije mreže među ljudima su jezička kojom serijalizujemo naše misli i novčana kojom prenosimo signal o vrednosti stvari oko nas. Svaki pokušaj ometanja ovih mreža treba da prepoznamo i sprečimo. Na vladama je da nađu načine da spreče protivzakonita ponašanja i oporezivanje bez diranja u anonimnost transakcije.

Ali, neko mora da stoji iza toga. Čiji je taj Satoši Nakamoto?

Irelevantno. “Iza toga” je samo otvoren i svima dostupan programski kod. Bitkoin je recept, ideja, algoritam. Nije pravno lice. Je li važno ko je zapravo bio Pitagora? Frensis Bekon? Vilijam Šekspir?

Postao je preskup. Mogu da ga priušte još samo bogati.

Novac sa dve decimale je samo istorijska posledica, verovatno nekada merne nepreciznosti kantara. Nije nikakav prirodni zakon da novac mora imati samo dve decimale. Bitkoin je deljiv na sto miliona delova. Možeš kupiti npr. hiljaditi deo bitkoina za 15 evra. Manje od 1% ljudi na planeti može imati više od jednog bitkoina, to je ogromna jedinica.

I šta onda? Da čekam da poraste pa da prodam?

Ne. Imaš priliku koju tvoji stari nisu imali. Da štediš u nečemu što ti nijedan diktator ne može obezvrediti, poreznik ili nasilnik oduzeti, bankarski službenik odbiti, proslediti. Svakim danom je sve jače i rasprostranjenije platežno sredstvo. Čekaj dok ne budemo razmenjivali delove bitkoina na lokalnom buvljaku.

Ovakav rast nije normalan. Ovo je balon koji mora da pukne.

Bitkoin je do sada imao 4 mehura. Prvi je bio jula 2010, kada je skočio sa $0.008 na $0.08.

Drugi je bio “veliki mehur 2011.”, sa $0.06 na $31, da bi onda pao na $5.

Treći je bio Aprila 2013, sa $20 na $280, kada su se kiparske banke spasavale pleneći klijentske depozite.

Četvrti je bio velika kriza MtGox berze novembra 2013. kada je skočio sa $70 na $1200, pa nekoliko meseci kasnije pao na $200.

Bitkoin je, naravno, i sada u balonu, koji se zove jedino slobodno neregulisano tržište na svetu. Višegodišnji trend rasta vrednosti bitkoina prati Metkalfeov zakon o vrednosti mreže. Ali na sitnijoj vremenskoj skali ta vrednost je vrlo volatilna, jer mreže rastu u naletima, a na svakom o njih se dešava borba straha i pohlepe i novo otkrivanje fer cene. Ne zaboravi samo Kejnsov investicioni savet: “Tržište može mnogo duže da ostane iracionalno nego ti solventan”.

Države jednog trenutka više neće dozvoliti ovo igranje.

Ovaj argument više svedoči o inferiornosti onoga ko ga izgovara nego o moći vlada. Evo spiska nekih državnih zabrana do sada: Hindu-Arapske cifre, štamparska mašina, slobodni izbori, podela vlasti, pruge, višespratnice, alkohol, saharoza, gramofon, zlato, homoseksualnost, marihuana, pornografija.

Jedino što vlade i bankarski kartel mogu je da pokušaju moralno prokazivanje ideje u nadi da će većina od nas nasesti. TPPN! TPPN! (Terorizam, Pedofilija i naravno omiljeni opresivni zakon, naslednik Sokratovog kvarenja omladine, njegovo predikativno visočanstvo: pranje novca).

Ali, bez većine nas to su samo zmajevi od papira. Ne zaboravi prvu lekciju renesansnog, prosvećenog čoveka: ti nisi objekat nad kojim se vrši istorija, ti si subjekat koji je menja.

Kada je 2000. Lars Ulrih iz Metalike lio suze pred Senatskim odborom za svojom intelektualnom svojinom u slučaju Napster, jedan koder pozvan kao veštak je lepo upozorio vladu SAD-a: “Zabranite Napster i pojaviće se nešto mnogo strašnije”. Ugasili su ga. I još istog meseca dobili bittorent protokol, koji je danas između ostalog i neizostavan deo mašinerije Bitkoin protokola.

Jer, kako je rekao Džon Gilmor, jedan od koderskih apostola i najuži krug sajferpankera:

Internet tretira cenzuru kao kvar i meandrira oko nje.

”Čitave armije ne mogu zaustaviti ideju kojoj je došlo vreme”. Pokušati zabraniti Bitkoin bilo bi kao pokušati zabraniti psovke ili izraz za obim kružnice.

Priča se preko “virtuelnih” medija da je otkriće u stvari blockchain, a ne bitkoin?

Nakon potrošenih ismevanja i pretnji, ovo je preostala slamka sofista. Potcenjivački i sa visine, treba da ostavi utisak da se to deca igraju dok ne ulete veliki. Ali, kako kaže jedna od zen rekontri Patrijarha Pavla: “Ne kaže On da čovek ne živi o hlebu, nego da ne živi samo o hlebu”.

Blockchain je osnova, ali je samo telo, bez tokena je zombi. Bitkoin je sa razlogom jedna vrlo spora i neefikasna baza podataka. Imperativ dizajna je da mora ispunjavati uslov da je bez korisničkih uloga i administratora.

Jednostruko povezana lista heševa izrudarenih blokova (blockchain) je jedini poznat način da ovaj uslov implementiramo u programskom kodu. Dakle on rešava jedan vrlo uzak i specifičan problem. Svega smo spremni da se odreknemo da bi dobili osobinu da nema vlasnika.

Ako Dojče banka želi da napravi blockchain, on će po definiciji biti zatvoren, sa administratorom. Ta kreatura će ili imati bezvredan token pa nije opasnost Bitkoinu ili će biti zombi bez tokena, a onda je kupovina Oracle licence mnogo pametniji izbor.

Bitkoin je deflatoran, niko neće hteti da ga troši. Kako onda može biti novac?

Ako je nešto omiljena disciplina ekonomista, to je guranje višestrukih oprečnih značenja u isti pojam. Postoje dve vrste deflacije koje nisu ni nalik jedna drugoj.

Prva je deflacija privatnog bankarskog depozitnog novca. Kada se ekonomija nađe u stanju prezaduženosti (privatni dug je ključan!) banke više ne pozajmljuju. Odluka o puštanju kredita je isključivo pravo poslovne politike svake banke. Ako one smatraju da više nema kreditno sposobnih, kreditiranje može imati oštar pad.

Kako se prethodni krediti isplaćuju, novac nestaje iz ekonomije u momentu otplate rate, a nov kreditni novac se ne kreira. Ovo dovodi do rasta vrednosti preostalog novca onome ko ga ima u rukama, a nije zadužen.

Ostatak ekonomije se grabi da nakrpi za ratu sa sve manje novca u opticaju, koji sada mora još brže da menja ruke da bi svi isplatili rate, što naglo dovodi do nenaplativih kredita, još manje kreditno sposobnih dužnika, pada ekonomske aktivnosti, zatvaranja firmi, nezaposlenosti, punih kafića i dnevnih žurki do konačnog raspada.

Druga vrsta deflacije, ona Bitkoinova, je nagrađivanje štediša, ne rasipnika, odlaganje potrošnje i inhibiranje fenomena namernog zastarevanja (artificial obsolescence). Kada ograničeni novac obuhvati celu ekonomiju kao opna, vrednost njegove jedinice diše sa ukupnim izlazom cele ekonomije, raste kako ona raste i smanjuje se kako se ona kontrahuje.

Bitkoin motiviše štednju ne potrošnju, dok je štednja toksični elemenat u sistemu privatnog bankarskog depozitnog novca, jer ga privremeno uklanja iz cirkulacije. Ovakva deflacija ne da nije štetna po društvo nego je poželjna. U poređenju sa ovim dinamika privatnog bankarskog novca je vožnja ili pod punim gasom ili kočenje iz sve snage.

A šta ćemo sa bitkoin aristokratijom? Polovinu do sada izdatih bitkoina poseduje 1%?

Analize distribucije vlasništva bitkoina su u najmanju ruku sumnjive. Ali bez obzira na njihovu istinitost one su irelevantne. Pitanje pravde je klizav teren za nekog iz sveta tvrdih veština, ali postoji jedna dinamička osobina monetarnog sistema koja čini da nije svaki jaz između bogatih i siromašnih isti.

Kao prvo, ravnopravnost je jedna opasna kolektivistička zamka. Istinski evropski liberalizam i individualizam je nešto vrlo fino, tanano i nenametljivo.

Nema testosteron i udobnost rulje desnice niti romantizam plejboja sa gitarom i Čeovom kapicom. Veliki statizmi 20. veka su imali svako etičko pravo da nastanu. Jedan iz horora fabričkih hala, a drugi iz horora rovova 1. svetskog rata. Ali istorija je pokazala da nisu rešenje.

Zasnivanje društva na etičkoj i moralnoj aksiomatici je prošlost. Etika treba da bude posledica matematički pravilno dizajniranog monetarnog sistema. On je ključan za kanalisanje ljudske motivacije u pravom smeru.

Iako nema ekosistema u prirodi u kome su sve jedinke iste, postoje situacije kada imovinski jaz postaje neprihvatljiv kao danas. To je kada u društvu nastanu ono što Nasim Taleb naziva “upijajuća stanja”. Od imovinskog jaza daleko je važnije da li za svakog od nas važe ista pravila.

Ako svaki ekonomski akter bez obzira na njegov imovinski položaj mora da preuzme rizik od gubitka svaki put kada donosi neku investicionu odluku onda to čini društvo takvim da je moguć prolaz kroz stanja siromašan-bogat-siromašan. Takvo društvo nema upijajuća stanja.

Ali ako jednom dostignut položaj bogatog čini da taj akter više ne preuzima nikakav rizik ma kako lošu odluku doneo, onda to društvo ima aristokratiju.

Monetarni sistem zasnovan na oskudnom (ograničenom) novcu u kome su pravila zadata protokolom, a ne hijerarhijskim predstavničkim procesom ima jednaka pravila za sve po definiciji. Bitkoin bogataš nije isto što i venture kapitalista sa vezama u centralnoj banci koja vrši kvantitativna olakšavanja tako što kreira kroz privatnu banku depozite njegovom fondu za 0% kamate.

Ako ovaj prvi napravi lošu procenu zauvek je izgubio svoje koine. Ovaj drugi može da priušti 100 miliona gubitaka na startape i da opet ima novih 100 miliona.

U redu, vratimo se na ekonomiju. Uveo si pojam oskudnosti koji si dužan objasniti. Ali pre toga: zašto bi uopšte trebalo smatrati bitkoin vrednim?

U samoj biti, pitanje vrednosti kao i lepote je misterija. Antropolozi i ekonomisti imaju neke maglovite ideje o tome kako među ljudima proliferiše saglasnost da je nešto vredno, ali su to sve ad hoc akademske mudrosti.

U neverici gledaju kako im jedna gargantuantska mreža nastaje pred očima. Od nule, sama od sebe, bez arbitra iako je suparnička. Nešto što je do juče bilo predmet samo arheoloških iskopavanja. Fenomen koji se otima konvencionalnim akademskim objašnjenjima je već slomio dobar broj intelektualnih sujeta.

Ovo pitanje je imalo smisla postaviti u januaru 2009. godine. Surova istina je da se danas više ne pitaš. Uskoro ćeš ih morati imati, jer će taj pored tebe tražiti da mu u njima platiš.

Kao što vrednost lopate dolazi od njene osobine da kopa, tako vrednost novca dolazi od toga koliko je dobro sredstvo razmene i čuvar vrednosti. - Karl Menger

Za Bitkoinom vlada planetarni grabež. Ta potražnja postoji zbog njegovih jedinstvenih osobina koje nijedan novac pre njega nije imao.

Bitkoin je:

– Fungabilan: svaka jedinica novca isto vredi. Ne kao dijamant kod koga zavisi kako je brušen.

– Durabilan: kao (inertna) informacija po prirodi je nepropadljiv.

– Portabilan: može da promeni ruke anonimno iz jedne u bilo koju drugu tačku planete za 10 minuta. Ne kao depozitni novac koji ne voli da putuje vikendom i traži potpis bankarskog službenika.

Portabilnost je Ahilova peta zlata, jer za razliku od Bitkoina ima masu. Zlato je uvek samo jedan korumpirani zakon daleko od konfiskacije. Ono jeste čuvar vrednosti, ali nije i transakcioni sistem kao Bitkoin.

– Oskudan: ovo je ključna karakteristika pravog novca, jer čini da on bude čuvar vrednosti. Zlato može nastati samo u sudaru neutronskih zvezda i to je njegov garant oskudnosti, ali koliko zlata ima oko nas nije do kraja jasno. Još manje je jasno koliko ga ima na Mesecu na primer, koji će nam sutra biti na dohvat ruke.

Bitkoinova garancija oskudnosti je jača od zlata, jer proizilazi iz osobina brojeva — iz ireverzibilnosti kriptografskih heš funkcija.

– U potražnji: U odnosu na konvencionalan novac, Bitkoin i dalje pokriva mali deo ekonomije, ali mreža raste neverovatnom brzinom. Ne dozvolite da vas ekonomski eksperti ubeđuju kako je ovo najbolji od svih svetova. Ne nasedajte na moralno prokazivanje (TPPN!), anonimnost transakcije nije privilegija nego pravo koje se brani koliko i sloboda govora. Mislite svojom glavom. Napravite napor, obrazujte se o novcu. Izbor novca je politika, ne ekonomija. Od nas zavisi ishod.

I na sve to još: pseudoniman, necenzorabilan, neoporeziv, programabilan, nemoguć za falsifikovati. On diže pojam lične svojine na novu skalu. A sa tim i slobodu.

U redu, ali i dalje ne može biti novac jer ga ne priznaje država. Zar ne?

Da bi čovek istinski mogao ceniti veličinu ideje Bitkoina, neophodno je razumeti mehaniku današnjeg novca, a ta materija je minsko polje oprečnih mišljenja, neočekivanih obrta i nedobronamerne obfuskacije pojmova. Slučajnost ili ne, ali upravo u deceniji bitkoina drmaju se temelji važeće akademske doktrine vezane za novac.

Novac je mreža za prenos informacije o vrednosti jednog ekonomskog dobra u odnosu na sva ostala. Ali kao što elektromagnetno polje ima nosioca — foton i novac mora imati neki svoj reprezent. To je ono što se dobija u trenutku prodaje dobra.

U zavisnosti od prirode tog tokena postoje dva moguća dizajna novca. U oba slučaja, suština je u našoj saglasnosti da ono što razmenjujemo smatramo vrednim, ali u prvoj vrsti novca ta vrednost dolazi iz prirode i nije opterećena nekom obligacijom, vrednost vadimo iz majke prirode (nešto je inherentno vredno). U drugoj vrsti novac je kvantifikovani socijalni odnos iza koga stoji neko obećanje koje nakon zaključivanja postaje transferabilno, a vrednost vadimo iz nas samih.

Razlog zašto postoje dva pristupa u dizajnu novca je igra zbog koje nastaju i nestaju čitava društva — kredit.

Kredit je transakcija rasparena u vremenu, gde se u zamenu za novac sada, ekonomsko dobro dobija kasnije. U trenutku razmene to dobro još ne postoji. Ne postoji potražnja za njim. Ali nakon njegovog kreiranja društvo ima jedno novo ekonomsko dobro koje (bi trebalo) da uveća egzistencijalno blagostanje svih nas.

Naravno da u ovom idealnom slučaju govorim samo o produktivnom kreditu, ne o tvorevinama potrošačkog društva: dozvoljeni minus, kreditna kartica i potrošački kredit kojim samo dovlačiš tvoju buduću kupovnu moć u sadašnjost do bankrota. Neproduktivni krediti su jedan od toksičnih elemenata u ovom sistemu.

U 1. vrsti novca nosilac je neka objektivna tvar koja bi po pravilu trebalo biti oskudna i van ljudskog domašaja stvaranja. Neki istorijski primeri su: retke školjke, so, pirinač, buseni duvana (“bucks”), čudni kameni stećci u obliku diska ostrva Jap, dabrove kože, zlato, srebro, bitkoin.

Da, bitkoin je 1. vrsta! Oskudnost je ovde ključna osobina jer ona čini novac čuvarom vrednosti. Na primer, garant oskudnosti zlata je što nastaje samo u sudaru neutronskih zvezda. Garancija oskudnosti bitkoina je još jača, jer sledi iz osobina brojeva (ireverzibilnosti kriptografskih heš funkcija).

Ekonomija zasnovana na ovakvom novcu se zove ekonomija razmene (barter economy), jer je za akciju razmene (transakciju) potrebno samo dva aktera i taj prirodni token. Ovakav novac ne poznaje fenomen inflacije, ali zato ima druge dve ozbiljne mane.

Pristup kreditu je izuzetno težak, jer ne postoji niko ko može stvoriti ovakav novac. Ekonomija na njemu ne može da “gori”, može samo vrlo sporo da “tinja” (možda je to i bolji recept za ljudsku sreću?).

Drugi problem je što novac može da isteče iz jedne zajednice, zbog nekog poremećaja, da li nagle demografske promene, neuravnoteženog uvoza i izvoza, rata i slično. Treba li zajednica da nestane? Zajednica neće nestati nego će upravo iznedriti novac 2. vrste.

Ekonomija zasnovana na drugom tipu novca, koji je kvantifikovani socijalni odnos, zove se monetarna ekonomija. U njoj je svaka transakcija triangularna, tj. potrebne su tri strane za razmenu: kupac, prodavac i poseban agent u ekonomiji koji izdaje ta cirkulirajuća obećanja. Taj specijalni akter nije država, nego privatna banka.

Pogađaš, ovde je pristup kreditu lak, jer je novac po definiciji neograničen. Ali da bi neoskudan novac mogao biti čuvar vrednosti, mora postojati proces kojim se on uklanja iz ekonomije. Ako taj proces zakaže, nastaje fenomen inflacije — najrazornije sile koja kida sve niti društva.

Zapravo u takvoj ekonomiji sav novac je dug. Odatle ona engleska poslovica: “Zlato je novac kraljeva, srebro gospode, a dug robova”.

Šta ti se sada čini virtuelnije, lova koju imaš na računu banke ili kripto(!)valuta Bitkoin?

Molim?!

Da, nije lako progutati ovu pilulu. Zaboravi na prvu asocijaciju da je novac keš koji štampa državni trezor. Prvo to je netačno, drugo, keš je zanemarljiv deo ekonomije (3.5% u Srbiji) i irelevantan. Zaboravi na to da banka navodno deli kredite tako što prvo uzme depozit od klijenta. Ništa nije dalje od istine.

Pravo je čudo da igra koja upravlja motivacijom celog ljudskog roda, dvostruko knjigovodstvo, nije predmet opšteg obrazovanja. Depozit je banci pasiva, a kredit je banci aktiva. To su suprotne strane bilansa! Depozit nikada ne može postati kredit.

Novac koji sve ekonomije sveta (izuzeci: Severna Koreja, Iran, Sirija, do nedavno Irak i Libija) koriste je tzv. depozitni novac, tj. pasiva privatnog pravnog lica (banke) koje ima državnu monopolsku licencu za obavljanje depozitnih poslova.

Država ne reguliše ko kako sme da pozajmljuje. Ali zato opasno reguliše ko sme da ima računovodstvenu kategoriju depozita na svom bilansu. Ako se dogodi pozajmica između bilo koja dva ne-banka aktera u ekonomiji, taj dug je samo između njih, on je bilateralan. Ali, kada banka pozajmi, onda je taj dug, to obećanje, multilateralno. Ono počinje da kruži po ekonomiji kao imovina nas ostalih.

Novac nastaje u trenutku puštanja kredita kada se dužnik obavezuje poveriocu (banci) da će ga vratiti. Tada banka, prostom računarskom SQL instrukcijom INSERT INTO, bez ikakvog drugog ograničenja osim sopstvene procene o kreditnoj sposobnosti dužnika, upiše u bazu podataka, svoju računovodstvenu knjigu, na strani pasive nov nikad ranije postojeći depozit u ekonomiji u visini iznosa kredita.

Dakle, ono što je nama imovina, privatnoj banci je obaveza. I to ne samo pri puštanju kredita, nego i pri deljenju plata, bonusa i investiranju za svoje potrebe (hartije od vrednosti, nekretnine, kancelarijsku opremu, softver itd…) banka stvara novac. Jer, ono što je svakom ne-banka akteru u ekonomiji novac, banci je obaveza. Sa tom razlikom što ako ga stvara za svoje potrebe, mora u krajnjem rezultatu da umanji svoj kapital za taj iznos.

Kredit je stariji od depozita. Sramota je da je to znao engleski zakonodavac još 1727. kada je pisao zakon o falsifikovanju, a profesori ekonomije se i dan danas prave ludi da se Sunce vrti oko Zemlje, ne obrnuto.

Ekonomija ne koristi državni, nego privatni novac. Preciznije onaj deo ekonomije koga činimo mi fizička, pravna lica ne-banke i javne ustanove države. Ni u jednom zakonu se eksplicitno ne tvrdi da privatna banka kreira novac, niti da se to dešava u momentu puštanja kredita. Ovaj proces je sporedni efekat, od države priznatih, međunarodnih računovodstvenih standarda koje donosi privatna nadnacionalna fondacija IFRS.

Da bi ovakav neoskudan novac mogao biti čuvar vrednosti, kada se obećanje ispuni, tj. ekonomsko dobro za koje je (produktivni) kredit uzet proizvede, novac koji je dat treba da bude uklonjen iz ekonomije. I zaista u trenutku plaćanja svake rate, banka na svom bilansu, sa desne strane obaveza, umanji depozit, a sa leve strane umanji preostali iznos duga dužnika.

Čekaj malo… A kamata? Nju ne spominješ?

U ovom grmu leži zec, ali ne onako kako to misle pesnici. Nije Gospod Hristos izlomio tezge ispred hrama zbog kamate. Kamata je cena za koju je izdavač tih obećanja spreman da preuzme rizik da mu dužnik ne vrati obećano.

Da, u trenutku stvaranja depozitnog novca (kredita) kamata nije stvorena. Zato je ukupan dug u ekonomiji uvek veći od ukupne količine novca u opticaju i sistem se ne može zatvoriti. Ali, zabluda koja kruži okolo je da je to razlog što ovakav sistem proizvodi novac (dug) eksponencijalno: da bi se, navodno, isplatili prethodni krediti koji vuku i kamatu za sobom.

Ne, to nije tačno. Zabluda dolazi od nerazumevanja mernih jedinica. Iznos kredita je kao koordinata (RSD), a kamata je brzina (RSD/god). To su različite veličine (stock and flow of money).

U teoriji, mogli bi se svi krediti (različitog tenora) isplatiti i sa jednim jedinim dinarom ako bi on dovoljnom brzinom menjao ruke.

Problem leži u tome šta banka naknadno uradi sa primanjima od kamate, jer samo je iznos kredita potrebno ukloniti iz ekonomije, kamatu ne. Nju bi banka trebalo u celosti da vrati u kruženje. Ali to ne radi, jer želi da obogaćuje svoje akcionare, a i regulativa (vrlo zgodna koincidencija) zahteva da uvećava svoj kapital. I to na našu žalost, na duže staze radi eksponencijalno. I niko to ne može da joj zabrani.

Dobro, pa na šta se to onda misli kada se spomene novac u zakonima?

Dinar je samo oznaka za jedinicu mere, kao kilogram ili sekund. Postoje dve različite tvari koje se mere tom istom jedinicom i obe su novac 2. vrste, tj. transferabilna obećanja, ali su različite tvari kao drvo i metal.

Rekli smo da je u monetarnoj ekonomiji svaka transakcija triangularna. Potrebna su dva ne-banka ekonomska aktera i banka, akteri razmenjuju stavke na pasivi privatne banke, koje ona proizvodi jer samo ona ima računovodstvenu kategoriju depozita.

A šta ako u ekonomiji postoji više od jedne banke? Tada mora postojati još jedan krug drugačijeg novca. U njemu su privatne banke ekonomski akteri, a nad-banka ili centralna banka je proizvođač obećanja. I taj novac je depozitni novac, tj. kružeće obećanje, ali je pasiva centralne banke, njena obaveza ka privatnim bankama. Zove se rezerva.

Dakle, u ekonomiji sa više banaka uvek postoji hijerarhija novca. Depozitni novac privatnih banaka je naša imovina, a njihova obaveza; depozitni novac centralne banke je privatnim bankama imovina, a centralnoj banci obaveza.

Rezerve kruže samo u računovodstvenoj knjizi centralne banke, čiji klijenti mogu biti samo banke i državni trezor i ta tvar iako merena u dinarima, nema kupovnu moć, nego mora da se pretvori u depozitni novac privatne banke na računu nekog ne-banka aktera u ekonomiji da bi nešto kupio.

Kada god država spomene reč novac u zakonima implicitno se misli uvek i samo na rezerve ili njihov materijalni ekvivalent: keš i kovanice. To zakonsko sredstvo plaćanja (legal tender) uopšte nije novac koji koristi ostatak ekonomije izuzev banaka. Vlada to zna i opet nije gadljiva na privatni depozitni novac.

Svaki put kada uplatiš porez, taj novac privremeno(!) nestaje iz ekonomije, jer se iz depozitnog novca privatne banke pretvori u rezerve na računu trezora kod centralne banke. Pojaviće se opet kada ga trezor prosledi nekoj državnoj ustanovi da ga potroši, opet kroz privatnu banku.

Evropska društva su imala vrlo gorka iskustva sa štampanjem novca od strane vlada. SAD upravo obrnuto. To društvo je cvetalo kad god je imalo državni novac, a ubija ga jedna centralna banka.

Današnji novac je zato jedna čudna istorijska tvorevina potrebe, pohlepe i polupromišljenosti slobodnog tržišta, koji nastaje van suverena (dakle nije fiat, iako svi koristimo taj žargon) obostranim dobrovoljnim pristankom dužnika i privatne banke u procesu kreditiranja, a nestaje otplatom tog kredita.

U krugu rezervi, izuzetno brzo struji zanemarljivo mala količina jednog novca bez kupovne moći i služi da se dve privatne banke poravnaju svaki put kada neki od depozita u njima preleće iz jedne u drugu. Rezerve su ono jedino do čega je jednoj privatnoj banci stalo.

Te žetone ona ne može da proizvede ad infinitum, jer su žetoni centralne banke. I naravno stalo joj je, da joj vratiš dug, inače će doći po svoju funtu živog mesa (za to plaća licencu vladi). Samo, bez žetona centralne banke se može ostati preko noći, a gomila nenaplativih kredita na bilansu se mogu poturati pod tepih jako dugo. Sve dok neko ne vikne da je car go.

Svakoga ko ovo jednom razume, ne može a da ne zaboli stomak na sofizam da kriptovaluta ne može imati vrednost, jer nije potkrepljena državom.

Spomenuo si “fiat”. Šta uopšte znači ta reč?

Fiat lux (neka bude svetlo)! Neutoljiva glad svakog vladara da uzme prerogativ bogova i stvori ni iz čega nešto.

Ovaj fenomen je najbolje shvatiti na primeru. Dinar, funta, dolar… Sve su to nekada davno bile jedinice za merenje težine srebra ili zlata.

Zamisli da imaš teg težine 100 dinara, terazije i prodaješ maline. Kupac se pojavi sa par grumenja zlata i želi maline u vrednosti od 100 dinara. Maline ćeš dati za onoliko grumenja koliko terazije pokažu da teže 100 dinara. Nevažno kog oblika je grumen i ima li na sebi neku facu, dokle god je pravo nesečeno zlato.

Međutim, niotkuda, pojavi se ekipa do te mere nasilna i organizovana da skalira svoje nasilje do nivoa države. Odmah donese zakon da svaki grumen težine 1 dinar mora da bude u obliku novčića. Sa jedne strane mora biti otisnut lik glavonje, a sa druge da piše 1 dinar, tako da više nisu potrebne terazije da provere da novčić zaista teži 1 dinar pri razmeni.

Nakon izvesnog vremena lokalna ekipa nasilnika se zakači sa susjedima i treba im zlata za vojsku plaćenika. Ali zlato je oskudno, ne može da se napravi. Međutim glavonja ima ideju. Otisnuće rupu u sredini novčića ili će mu okrznuti krajeve ili će pomešati zlato i bakar, a ostaviti na njemu i dalje oznaku 1 dinar.

To je fiat. Tačnije: fiat denarii! Rasparivanje jedinice mere od deklarisane vrednosti (face value).

Glavonja je sebi stvorio kupovnu moć prividno ni iz čega. Za manje od 1 dinara zlata može da kupi robu i usluge u ekonomiji od 1 dinara. U stvari, ovo je samo iluzija. Surova istina je da je oteo po malo imovine od svih ostalih, jer jedna jedinica novca sada svakome vredi manje. Ovakva igra bez izuzetka uvek završi na nuli. Naglo i nasilno. Rimsko carstvo je udžbenički primer.

Termin fiat je danas žargon za svaki novac koji nije kriptovaluta što je u osnovi greška, jer izuzev kovanica, novac već dugo vremena nije fiat. Jedino što suveren i dalje pravi su kovanice i prodaje ih centralnoj banci. Ako ga izrada kovanice od 1 dinar košta 5 para, a centralna banka je kupi tako što trezoru uveća depozit rezervi za 1 dinar, suveren je ni iz čega stvorio 95 para (senioraža).

Kovanice su istorijski reziduum fiata. Suveren je sveo sebe na sramotni sitniš.

Hmm… Mora li ovo ovako? Sve ovo počinje da mi izgleda kao jedno veliko zamešateljstvo dvostrukog knjigovodstva?

Pravo u metu, dragi moj Sagredo. Pravo u metu. Venecija 1494. Alkoholizam, prejedanje, sifilis i pussy galore. Sa izuzetkom organske ishrane, nesečene robe i lajf-koučeva to je kudikamo opis finansijske metropole i danas.

Armija perverzno bogatih snobova sa previše slobodnog vremena, humus za umetnost, nauku i startape. Knjiga je koštala kao skuplji laptop i bila omiljeni statusni simbol. Naročito ako je velika i debela poput Paćolijeve enciklopedije matematike.

Hindu-Arapske cifre su još uvek bile sporne, jer je: “svaki dobri Hrišćanin morao biti prezriv prema matematici” (Sv. Avgustin), a štamparska mašina tek nedavno unapređena da može otiskivati crteže. Dvostruko knjigovodstvo je samo 9. poglavlje tog renesansnog remek dela Fra Luke Paćolija iz koga je i Leonardo naučio perspektivu.

U školi tom otkriću, pleksusu današnjeg sveta, ne pridaju ni blizu značaj koji mu pripada. Uči se da je njegova poenta korekcija greške, a dvostruko knjigovodstvo je u stvari izvorni blockchain.

Svako dobro koje menja vlasnika, ta transakcija, ostaje zabeležena na 2 mesta, jednom akteru na izlazu (pasivi), a drugome na njegovom ulazu (aktivi) na taj način povezujući celu ekonomiju u jedan tok i omogućavajući reviziju i arbitražu.

Bez tog mehanizma današnji novac i kapitalizam je nemoguć. Možda najbolja definicija kapitalističke ekonomije je: “Money is nothing, that you get for something, before doing anything”. Novac je ni od čega, koje dobiješ samo ako založiš nešto, pre nego što možeš da napraviš bilo šta.

Ne zaboravi, makroekonomija su finansije, finansije računovodstvo, a računovodstvo pravo. Tamno srce sveta leži u definicijama računovodstvenih kategorija. Zabluda je misliti da je svet zao i beznadežan jer korporacije imaju samo jedan cilj — da uvećaju profit. Naprotiv to je racionalno ponašanje.

Ali mi smo ti koji definišemo šta je to profit! McDonalds je izuzetno profitabilan, zato što prebacuje dijabetes kao trošak na bilans društva. Monsato takođe, jer ekocid nije definisana računovodstvena kategorija troška, nego je “eksternalizacija”. Sve je u zakonima.

Znači kao što neka firma ode u banku po kredit, tako i država dobije kredit od centralne banke?

Ne. Država je jedini klijent centralne banke koji je to sam sebi zabranio. Tačno je, i za krug rezervi (depozitnog novca centralne banke) važi isto pravilo kao i kod depozitnog novca privatne banke. Centralna banka pogoni isti softver kao i privatna.

Rezerva nastaje kada centralna banka pusti kredit. Njeni klijenti, privatne banke mogu dobiti kredit sa ili bez obezbeđenja. U tom krugu jako brzo kruži vrlo mala količina novca u poređenju sa novcem ostatka ekonomije. Ti krediti su obično vrlo kratkog tenora. Takođe još češći je slučaj da banke međusobno jedne drugima bilateralno pozajmljuju već postojeće rezerve (money markets).

Upravo se u ovom reaktoru dogodila kriza 2008. Banke su trgovale egzotičnim finansijskim hartijama do te mere da su se jednog trenutka našle kao rogovi u vreći. Nikome nije bilo jasno ko je solventan, a ko više nije zbog ogromnih gubitaka na tim hartijama i međusobno pozajmljivanje rezervi je praktično stalo.

Od tada sistem rapidno gubi kontakt sa zdravim razumom, a centralne banke eksponencijalno kreiraju nove rezerve da bi vratile te leševe u solventno stanje. Kao obezbeđenje za te kreirane depozite rezervi bankama uzimaju akcije Pepsija, Koka Kole, Fejsbuka, toksične finansijske derivate i trilione korporativnih obveznica sa negativnom kamatnom stopom.

Ne zaboravi rezerve nemaju kupovnu moć! Da bi centralna banka kupila nečiju akciju u tom procesu “kvantitativnog olakšavanja” (nad našom imovinom) ona mora naložiti privatnoj banci da za taj iznos uveća nečiji depozit i tako se kreira nov novac u našem krugu ekonomije van standardnog kanala kreiranja uzimanjem kredita od privatne banke. Posledica toga je razarajući jaz u bogatstvu koji danas postoji u svetu. Od 2008. više niko nije za volanom.

U svakom slučaju, jedini klijent centralne banke koji ne može da se direktno zaduži je državni trezor. Suveren je samog sebe tako ograničio. Ako želi da potroši neki novac, na plate, vrtiće ili puteve, on mora da se dokopa već postojećeg depozitnog novca privatnih banaka jer je samo to novac sa kupovnom moći. I za to ima dva načina.

Može da odštampa obveznicu. Kada nađe kupca, privatna banka tada smanji depozit kupcu za iznos vrednosti obveznice, a isti iznos rezervi prebaci trezoru na njegov depozit u centralnoj banci.

Drugi način je da ubira porez. Tada banka umanji depozit onome ko porez plaća, a onda, kao u prethodnom slučaju, za isti iznos se uveća rezerva državnom trezoru u knjizi centralne banke. Kada želi da potroši taj novac, trezor prosledi rezerve i instrukciju privatnoj banci koja onda uveća depozit javne institucije kojoj se prosleđuje novac.

I u jednom i u drugom slučaju nije bilo stvaranja novog novca, nego samo promena vlasništva već postojeće količine privatnog depozitnog novca u ekonomiji. To čini oporezivanje mehanizmom redistribucije vlasništva, koje bi u teoriji trebalo ići u korist manje bogatih.

Polako ulazi u modu i treći način da suveren uzme kredit kod privatne banke kao bilo ko drugi od nas. Kao vrhunac poniženja suverena, ovo je i dalje retkost i dovodi do povećanja privatnog depozitnog novca u opticaju jer banka pušta nov kredit.

Ali, nezahvalno je tražiti opšte stavove u načinu finansiranja država. Na primer, Velika Britanija se dugo oslanjala na dozvoljeni minus kod svoje centralne banke. EU regulativa joj je to zabranila. Ona je poštovala taj zakon, dok joj je to odgovaralo, ali kada je 2008. udarila kriza, ona je opet uvela taj mehanizam ne obazirući se ni trenutka na zakon. UK sme, a Srbija ne sme. I? Šta ćeš sad?

Pa zašto Srbija ne dozvoli sebi dozvoljeni minus, kada je centralna banka i ovako narodna?

Zaista neke centralne banke su privatne, neke nisu. Jedine centralne banke koje su važne su i privatne: FED, BOE, BOJ, ECB, SNB.

Ali, još jedna uvrežena zabluda je da je upravo to ključni bag u sistemu. Nije. Većina profita centralne banke koji dolazi od držanja državnih dugovnih hartija, bez obzira na to ko joj je vlasnik, a država uvek ima udeo u upravljanju i postavljanju izvršnih funkcija, i ovako biva vraćena državi.

U svetu se vodi jedna vrlo nepravedna utakmica između nacija, jer većina njih mora da živi od poreza, a upravo najmoćniji imaju trikove da to u nekoj meri izbegnu. To se zove monetarna suverenost i prerogativ je samo najmoćnijih društava. U suštini ne više od 5. SAD, Velika Britanija, Kina, Japan i Švajcarska.

Naravno da sve države tu “muvaju” i ko zna kakva korisnička prava imaju u sistemu centralne banke, ne zaboravi da su to sve hijerarhijski procesi koji su inherentno koruptivni. Za razliku od bitkoina, konvencionalni monetarni sistem ni jednog trenutka nije do kraja definisan.

Prerogativ monetarne suverenosti je daleko teže dobiti od teritorijalne. Za teritorijalnu ti trebaju moćna leđa i naoružane face na granici. Za monetarnu moraš da budeš potreban svetu. Samo tada se tvoj žeton koga pravi centralna banka traži. Tek sa tim dolaze trikovi dolaženja do novca van oporezivanja.

Dozvoljeni minus Britanskog trezora zaista znači da država ima udeo u kreiranju novca. Uveća sebi iznos rezervi, a onda ih prebaci na račun neke privatne banke i naloži joj da uveća depozit neke javne ustanove u u njoj. I voilà, nov privatni kreditni novac je kreiran u ekonomiji bez puštanja kredita.

Dobro, ali zar nisi jednog trenutka tvrdio je ovo bolji sistem od novca 1. vrste u koji spada i bitkoin?

Kružeća obećanja se ne mogu iskoreniti. Društvo će uvek spontano iznedriti kreditni novac na manje ili više sofisticiran način čim oseti potrebu ili pretnju. Na zlatu se rat može samo izgubiti. Lako dostupan kredit omogućava da društvo raste kada i koliko ono želi. Ceo mehanizam, uključujući i tu osobinu da je vremenom izolovao vlade od čina kreiranja novca ima smisao koliko i vrlo pametna istorijska izolacija crkve.

Ali kao nekada državne fiat valute i ovaj privatni kreditni novac uporno iznova propada.

Bitkoin, novac 1. vrste, je čamac za spasavanje u takvim kobnim vremenima. Sa njim rasparuješ svoju sudbinu od sudbine kreditnog novca u raspadu.

Ne postoji način da se izbegne konačni kolaps izazvan kreditnom ekspanzijom. Alternativa je jedino da li će kriza doći brže usled dobrovoljnog odustanka od dalje ekspanzije kredita ili kasnije kao konačna katastrofa valute u kojoj je izražen. - Ludvig fon Mizes

Sa ovom promisli iz “Teorije novca i kredita” treba da počne svaki kurs iz makroekonomije. Dinamika kreditnog novca, ne biva u konačnom ciklusu, nego prevodi sistem iz jedne fiksne tačke nezaduženosti u drugu totalne prezaduženosti nakon koga je neophodan reset u vidu deflatornog (“…dobrovoljni odustanak…”) ili inflatornog (“…konačna katastrofa…”) kraha.

Nesporna eksperimentalna činjenica, na podacima UK i SAD za poslednjih 120 godina je da ovaj sistem nema kočnice. On mahnito kreira novac (kredite), a onda naglo staje. Na duži period količina novca u opticaju raste eksponencijalno i njegova uloga čuvara vrednosti se raspada.

Stotine kreditnih kriza u svetu samo od “privremene” vladine uredbe Ričarda Niksona, tj. ukidanja monetarne funkcije zlata 1971. i gubitak vrednosti rezervne svetske valute dolara za 92% od 1913. su činjenice.

Još jedna nesporna eksperimentalna činjenica, na primeru SAD, je da ekonomija takođe raste eksponencijalno od 1650. godine, sa prosečnim rastom od 2.9%. Ključno pitanje je: da li monetarni sistem nameće eksponencijalni rast ekonomije, ili je obrnuto, ekonomija nameće eksponencijalni rast kredita, tj. depozita u opticaju?

Ako je tačno ovo prvo, onda je sistem disfunkcionalan i ne radi kako je zamišljen, jer umesto da servisira ekonomiju, ona servisira njega. Ako eksponencijalni rast ekonomije nije održiv, onda ovakav monetarni sistem uopšte nije moguć.

Centralna banka troši ogromnu energiju na privid kako je za volanom kreditne ekspanzije. Tu bajku zove “transmisioni mehanizam”. Dajdžest ove dogme se može naći i u doktorskoj disertaciji Jorgovanke Tabaković (nije šala).

Da si prišao jednom centralnom bankaru pre 1980. i rekao mu da se količina privatnog depozitnog novca u ekonomiji može kontrolisati kamatnom stopom na rezerve centralne banke koje ona kreira u procesu kreditiranja banaka, smejao bi ti se u lice. Danas ako mu tvrdiš da se to može postići regulacijom minimuma obaveznih rezervi, kao što se to radilo do 1980, opet će ti se smejati u lice.

U stvari, istina je da je centralna banka samo običan refinansijer, kliring kuća privatnih banaka. Jedino što centralna banka može je da utiče na cenu (kamatu) i količinu depozita koje ona stvara. Te rezerve ne samo da nisu u dodiru sa spoljnom ekonomijom nego ih ima mizerno malo u odnosu na kreditni novac privatnih banaka.

Uspeh centralne banke u obuzdavanju količine kreditnog novca privatnih banaka u opticaju je jedna tužna nula kroz celu njihovu istoriju.

Privatne banke sa druge strane vrlo brižljivo iznutra gaje kulturu privida kako strašna centralna banka zadaje pravila igre. Regulativa kojoj se podređuju privatne banke u ograničavanju emisije depozita usvaja i nadgleda centralna banka, tačno, ali kao i u slučaju računovodstvenih standarda i ovo je međunarodni standard. Naravno, došao iz kuhinje nadnacionalne privatne institucije registrovane kao banka i u vlasništvu najvećih privatnih banaka zvane BIS — arhitektonske alegorije Vavilonske kule, smeštene u miru Švajcarskog gradića Bazela poznatog po najvećem broju bordela po glavi stanovnika.

Srpski guverner tamo dolazi jednom u dva meseca na kratki poslovni ručak, a onda bude ispraćen kući. Nakon ručka, 5 najjačih privatnih računovodstvenih knjiga sveta se povlače na zatvoreni sastanak.

Autoregulativa se svodi na vrlo konvoluirani matematički postupak klasifikacije i stohastičke simulacije prepun magičnih cifara na presudnim mestima, da bi se emitovanje depozita (kreditiranje) ograničilo količinom kapitala banke.

Njen sporedni efekat je upravljanje rizicima (od insolvencije i nelikvidnosti), važnija agenda je da sve privatne banke koriste iste kriterijume procene rizika kako bi se postigao efekat da se ceo sektor ekspandira i kontrahuje kao jedan. Zašto? Jer to privatnim bankama garantuje minimalno korišćenje rezervi centralne banke, žetona koje one ne mogu da proizvedu.

Dakle, ako banka želi da emituje više depozita (kredita) mora da poveća svoj kapital. A to može da uradi na sledeće načine:

– Dokapitalizacijom: emitovanjem još akcija, ovo smanjuje procenat vlasništva koje nosi jedna akcija, što ugrožava postojeće vlasnike (dilution).

– Smanji aktivu: proda nekretnine, opremu u vlasništvu ili podeli otkaze.

– Napravi kratku pozajmicu od centralne banke (repo) samo za ovu potrebu (trik se zove “window dressing” i banke ga obavljaju na kraju računovodstvenog perioda da ulepšaju bilans)

– Emituje svoje korporativne obveznice za prodaju. Ova akcija uklanja novac iz ekonomije na određeno vreme trajanja obveznice.

– Ne potroši profit i ne isplati dividende. Ova akcija, reklasifikacije profita na stavku “retained earnings” uklanja novac iz ekonomije na neodređeno vreme. Dakle, postoji vrlo važna razlika kada banka uveća kapital i kada bilo koji drugi ekonomski akter ne-banka uveća kapital. U slučaju banke to uklanja novac iz kruženja na neodređeno vreme, sve dok banka ne odluči da ga potroši na sebe. Ali što više kredita želi da emituje, to više novca mora tu da stoji nepotrošeno. Ovakva akcija obogaćuje postojeće akcionare.

Ne zaboravi, u idealnom slučaju trebalo bi da postoji samo jedan mehanizam za nestajanje kreditnog novca iz kruženja: otplata (produktivnog) kredita. Svaki drugi je za sistem toksičan: štednja (koja ga uklanja na kratak period), kolaps banke koji briše ceo bilans i uvećanje bankinog kapitala.

Veza eksponencijalnog rasta ekonomije i novca u opticaju nije jasna. Ali akcija povlačenja novca iz opticaja poreklom od dobiti od kamate na kapital banke je dokazano jedan faktor koji izaziva obaveznost rasta.

Recimo da monetarni sistem kreditnog novca zaista zahteva večni eksponencijalni rast da se ne raspadne. Zašto ne bismo mogli večno tako da rastemo?

Jer postoje nepotkupljivi zakoni, oni od majke prirode. Jedan od njih, koji nam sreću kvari, je Štefan-Bolcmanov, a onaj najgori, zbog koga nikada nećemo postati bogovi je II zakon termodinamike.

Kakvu god mašinu napravio, njen krajnji rezultat osim korisnog rada mora biti i nešto toplote. A naš svemirski brod koji nam daje život — Zemlja ima samo jedan način da oslobodi tu toplotu u okolni vakuum svemira — zračenjem.

Štefan-Bolcman nam onda govori, kolika mora biti njena temperatura, ako se mora osloboditi izvesne količine toplote. Danas oslobađamo oko 12TW toplote. Ako nastavimo da rastemo eksponencijalno istim tempom kao poslednjih 300 godina, oko 2400. godine prosečna temperatura na Zemlji mora biti 100 stepeni celzijusa. Apsurd.

Ova analiza nema nikakve veze sa efektom staklene bašte i problematikom klime i ugljen-dioksida, Štefan-Bolcman je do te mere kristalno jasan, da sa loncem poznatih dimenzija, nešto vode, termometrom i štopericom možeš izmeriti temperaturu na površini Sunca. I to je školski zadatak.

Dakle, ako monetarni sistem zaista zahteva eksponencijalni rast ekonomije da bi postojao u ovoj formi, onda tvrdim sledeće: šta će biti sa dolarom 2020. ne znam, ali ono što znam sa apsolutnom sigurnošću je da već 2150. njega ovakvog neće biti, jer je termodinamička nemogućnost.

Zašto onda države ne bi napravile svoje kriptovalute? Zar time ne bi i Bitkoin postao suvišan?

To je jedna stvar koju država sigurno neće nikad uraditi. Razmisli šta to znači za novčani poredak? Temelj monetarne ekonomije je da banka kreira novac u činu puštanja kredita. Ako centralna banka napravi kriptovalutu, vraćamo se u stanje fiat valute, tj. državnog novca i barter ekonomije, jer banke postaju samo medijatori, a depozitni novac centralne banke (sada rezerve) bi postale jedino sredstvo plaćanja sa kupovnom moći.

Sa druge strane, Bitkoin ne bi ni osetio ovaj potez, jer njegov status najvećeg lanca otvorenog pristupa bez administratora ne bi bio izazvan jednom običnom zatvorenom bazom sa kontrolom pristupa i vladinim sisadminom. Svaki kripto maksimalista bi trebao da priželjkuje ovako glup potez vlada. Tehnologija kriptovalute je istinski šah-mat vladajućoj ekonomskoj dogmi.

Po ovome onda ne vidim da imamo izbora? Ili imamo bezdugovni novac i sporu ekonomiju razmene sa teško izvodljivim kreditiranjem ili imamo sofisticiranu monetarnu ekonomiju koja mora imati banku za triangularnu transakciju i u njoj uvek nekog ko odlučuje kome i kada pustiti kredit, tj. stvoriti novac. I da igramo tu igru dok ne spržimo Zemlju?

Treća opcija je da se svi mi izmenimo, počnemo da meditiramo i da raširimo kosmičku duhovnost tako da svaki od nas poput anđela može da čini samo dobro. Onda je svejedno kakav monetarni sistem imamo. Razočaravajuće je koliki broj ljudi i dalje misli da se tako gradi društvo.

Problem nije trivijalan, ali pre Gutenberga, dok su pisari bili centri kontrole pismenosti, mislili smo da je svet ravan i star 6000 godina, a žena nastala od muškog rebra. Nakon što smo oslobodili jezičku mrežu otkrili su nam se večni zakoni prirode zapisani jezikom matematike, kojima je i Tvorac odlučio da se povinuje.

Nekada smo decenijama plaćali harač za zarobljenog kralja da se vrati iz zatočeništva. Kada nam je Gutenbergova mašina omogućila da postanemo programeri pisanog jezika — gramatike i pravopisa, shvatili smo da je kralj smrtan, samo je ustav besmrtan.

Danas, centri kotrole kreiranja novca ulažu divovski trud u stvaranje privida da su izaslanici nevidljive ruke tržišta. Da bolje znaju kom mlekaru dati kredit od ostalih mlekara, kom poljoprivredniku od ostalih poljoprivrednika.

Iza tog vela stoji samo lamentiranje nad finansijskim izveštajima kreditnih odbora koji da se sutra zamene bacanjem fer novčića, ekonomija ne bi osetila razliku. Sve što ti lažni proroci rade je puštaju indulgencije svojim prisnima. Kako ekonomska nauka kaže: misalokacija kapitala.

Do 3. januara 2009. nismo imali izbora, jer smo transakcije mogli obavljati samo kroz njih. Izbor je duša Bitkoina. Sada imamo naše cevi za prenos vrednosti. A to što kroz njih teče nije ugroženo u kriznim vremenima kada obećanja počnu da se krše, jer nije opterećeno dugom i ima čvrstu garanciju oskudnosti.

Kreditni novac neće otići, ali više nismo u nemilosti bankara. Sada jedni druge držimo u šakama. Čovečanstvo je sazrelo za novo vreme u kome se privatnost transakcije, pravo raspolaganja imovinom neometeno nacionalnim granicama i dobrovoljno oporezivanje vidi kao elementarno pravo.

Sledeći korak istorije će biti distribuirana (p2p) kriptografska mreža kreditnog novca, u kome odluka o puštanju kredita biva oslobođena od centara kontrole, bitkoin postaje rezerva, nenaplativ kredit jasno definisan, a otplata kredita dobrovoljna, motivisana teorijom igara implementiranom u biznis logiku protokola.

Možda će upravo ovakav sistem pokazati da je kreditni novac moguć bez obaveznosti rasta. Banke će uspeti tek na tren da podignu glavu i vide obris tog asteroida u naletu.

Zar je zaista moguće da sistem ovako funkcioniše? Ovo sve miriše na teorije zavere, pseudonauku u najgorem slučaju.

Kvartalni bilten centralne banke engleske (BOE) o mehanizmu kreiranja novca u ekonomiji

O nemogućnosti eksponencijalnog rasta

Vebsajt profesora Stiva Kina

O imperativu rasta

Školski zadatak kako izmeriti temperaturu na površini Sunca:

Monetarni suverenisti: www.positivemoney.org,

https://www.sovereignmoney.eu/

Odlična monografija Jozefa Hubera

Nezaobilazno štivo Ričarda Wernera, oca kovanice “kvantitativne olakšice” i monetarnog suvereniste

I njegov vrhunski članak o činu kreacije dugovnog novca

Da li si svestan da nobelovac Pol Krugman tvrdi suprotno?

vaka epizoda istorije ima svoje fariseje i aristotelovce. Dežurnu dvorsku ludu postojećeg poretka, sramotni portret korumpiranosti jedne nauke — Pola Krugmana istančano opisuje anonimni autor ‘Buckaroo Banzai’.

Stiv Kin (Steve Keen) je mnogo bolji izbor ako želiš da razumeš ekonomiju, don Sagredo. Ali moraš da se potkuješ fizikom ako želiš da se probudiš iz računovodstvene bajke. Diferencijalne jednačine, ne tepisi teksta.

“Greši onaj ko misli da će nas simboli odvesti od realnosti, naprotiv dovešće nas u suštinu stvari”, umeo je da kaže veliki Lajbnic. Ili kraće: vires in numeris.

Don Salviati, nobody likes a smartass. Gde mogu da naučim više o Bitkoinu?

https://lopp.net/bitcoin.html

Stilizovani prikaz bilansa sa dve računovodstvene situacije koje za banku znače kraj poslovanja i opisom kako do njih dolazi. Levi scenario se po pravilu nikada ne događa, jer šta je to nenaplativ kredit? Sliku izradio: miloseviclawyer.com

@ 1cb14ab3:95d52462

Originally written in October 2022 (Block: 757258 / USD: $20.1k / SatsDollar: 4961). Refined with slight edits for publishing on Nostr in December 2024 (Block: 875189 / USD: $106k / SatsDollar: 938 ). Banner image property of Hes. My journey down the rabbit hole has only intensified since the time of writing. Enjoy.

---

The Bitcoin time perspective is wild. Reflecting on it has been profoundly eye-opening, and once it has been seen— there is no returning to our prior ways.

Ever since venturing down the rabbit hole that we call Bitcoin, I’ve started making significant life decisions and forming nuanced opinions on polarizing topics based on the implications of multi-generational timeframes. Before Bitcoin, I spent money recklessly, leading a fast-paced and impulsive lifestyle. Even in my early days of learning about Bitcoin, I hadn’t fully seen the light. I would still blow the occasional $500 bar tab or buy some flashy gadget I didn’t need. Living in the moment has its merits, but so does considering the time beyond our own lives. Now, I pause before purchases and decisions, always reflecting on how they might impact the future.

When your money isn’t constantly being devalued before your eyes, you start seeing the world differently. You begin saving for the future with confidence, knowing that no central authority can endlessly print away your hard-earned time and energy. Inflation doesn’t just erode purchasing power; it steals time. It destroys the hours, days, and years of effort represented by a lifetime of savings. When governments print money to prop up failing banks or fund inefficient ventures, the impact ripples through generations. Those at the bottom of the ladder are hit the hardest, their ability to save and plan for the future undermined by forces beyond their control. Decisions become focused on surviving today instead of thriving tomorrow, leaving little room to consider the long-term implications of our choices. This system creates a mindset where we are incentivized to spend now, instead of save for later—an unnatural phenomenon that most of us have accepted as normal.

For individuals who simply want to put away money for a rainy day, inflation is a relentless adversary. A dollar in 1900 has lost over 96% of its value. The countless hours of labor behind those savings have been stolen. Not only did the expansion of money destroy what they could buy, it stole our time and energy. Years of our lives—blood, sweat, and tears—washed away.

This isn’t just a historical problem—it’s a recurring one that occurs every decade or so and is accelerating. At an average inflation rate of 3%, the value of cash halves roughly every 23 years. This means that even modest inflation rates gradually diminish purchasing power over time, forcing individuals to chase speculative assets like stocks, real estate, and gold—not because they want to, but because they have no choice. Personal inflation rates differ depending on consumer habits, but a glance at rising prices reveals they often outpace the 2% annual rate reported by the government, which poses a significant problem for individua;s, as highlighted in the table below:

Corporations like McDonald’s understand this. Sitting on a prime corner lot in every major city is far smarter than stacking a pile of cash losing value. Even if the franchise is losing money, the building it operates in is guaranteed to “rise” in value over time. This mindset trickles down to everyday people. To protect themselves, they’re compelled to invest in assets—with real estate being the pinnacle savings instrument of our time. The financial system we’ve accepted as normal turns shelter into an investment vehicle and savings into a gamble.

But here’s the irony: real estate is a lousy store of value—which is what we are all truly seeking. Properties require constant maintenance. Without care, assets deteriorate. We’ve all seen abandoned theme parks and overgrown cities. We’ve all dealt with broken pipes and creaky floorboards. Why should saving our hard-earned wealth require us to become housing market experts, landlords, or property managers? Why should we pay financial advisors to manage stock portfolios full of companies whose values or practices we might not even believe in, just to beat inflation?

A flawed monetary system inflates bubbles in real estate and stocks, redirecting resources into speculative markets instead of productive investments. Imagine a world where people don’t have to read quarterly earnings reports after a long day of work to ensure their cash retains value. If the incentives driving these bubbles were removed, the financial landscape would dramatically shift. Inflation wouldn’t push people into markets like real estate or zombie companies; instead, they could focus on building or supporting businesses they genuinely care about. They could plan for the long term and make well-thought-out, rational decisions about their future.

Bitcoin takes this entire dynamic and flips it on its head. It isn’t a tool for speculation as often misunderstood. It is the best form of saving humanity has ever seen. Unlike fiat currencies, Bitcoin’s fixed supply ensures scarcity, making it a refuge from the erosion of wealth caused by inflation. As weak currencies flow into stronger ones (a concept known as Gresham’s Law), Bitcoin’s role as a store of value becomes clearer. It’s not that Bitcoin has “gone up 19,000%”—it’s that people are exchanging weaker money for stronger money.

The implications of a world on a Bitcoin standard extend far beyond monetary policy. It offers something unprecedented: a tool for transferring the value of labor and energy across time and space. Unlike fiat, Bitcoin allows time to be preserved across generations. It isn’t just a hedge against inflation—it reintroduces the idea of saving with confidence, of being able to store wealth in a form of money that cannot be manipulated or devalued.

By saving in Bitcoin, individuals are no longer tethered to the uncertainties of fiat systems. The Bitcoin time perspective is about aligning our actions today with the future we want to build tomorrow. It’s about prioritizing long-term impact over short-term gains. When you embrace Bitcoin, you embrace a mindset that values time, energy, and the well-being of future generations. It’s not just a currency; it’s a revolution in thinking that will change you forever. The past, present, and future converge in this new paradigm, offering hope in an otherwise uncertain world.

Bitcoin isn’t a bubble; it’s a beacon.

---

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@ fe32298e:20516265

Today I learned how to install NVapi to monitor my GPUs in Home Assistant.

NVApi is a lightweight API designed for monitoring NVIDIA GPU utilization and enabling automated power management. It provides real-time GPU metrics, supports integration with tools like Home Assistant, and offers flexible power management and PCIe link speed management based on workload and thermal conditions.

• GPU Utilization Monitoring: Utilization, memory usage, temperature, fan speed, and power consumption.
• Automated Power Limiting: Adjusts power limits dynamically based on temperature thresholds and total power caps, configurable per GPU or globally.
• Cross-GPU Coordination: Total power budget applies across multiple GPUs in the same system.
• PCIe Link Speed Management: Controls minimum and maximum PCIe link speeds with idle thresholds for power optimization.
• Home Assistant Integration: Uses the built-in RESTful platform and template sensors.

Getting the Data

sudo apt install golang-go git clone https://github.com/sammcj/NVApi.git cd NVapi go run main.go -port 9999 -rate 1 curl http://localhost:9999/gpu

Response for a single GPU: [ { "index": 0, "name": "NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4090", "gpu_utilisation": 0, "memory_utilisation": 0, "power_watts": 16, "power_limit_watts": 450, "memory_total_gb": 23.99, "memory_used_gb": 0.46, "memory_free_gb": 23.52, "memory_usage_percent": 2, "temperature": 38, "processes": [], "pcie_link_state": "not managed" } ]

Response for multiple GPUs: [ { "index": 0, "name": "NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3090", "gpu_utilisation": 0, "memory_utilisation": 0, "power_watts": 14, "power_limit_watts": 350, "memory_total_gb": 24, "memory_used_gb": 0.43, "memory_free_gb": 23.57, "memory_usage_percent": 2, "temperature": 36, "processes": [], "pcie_link_state": "not managed" }, { "index": 1, "name": "NVIDIA RTX A4000", "gpu_utilisation": 0, "memory_utilisation": 0, "power_watts": 10, "power_limit_watts": 140, "memory_total_gb": 15.99, "memory_used_gb": 0.56, "memory_free_gb": 15.43, "memory_usage_percent": 3, "temperature": 41, "processes": [], "pcie_link_state": "not managed" } ]

Start at Boot

Create /etc/systemd/system/nvapi.service:

``` [Unit] Description=Run NVapi After=network.target

[Service] Type=simple Environment="GOPATH=/home/ansible/go" WorkingDirectory=/home/ansible/NVapi ExecStart=/usr/bin/go run main.go -port 9999 -rate 1 Restart=always User=ansible

Environment="GPU_TEMP_CHECK_INTERVAL=5"

Environment="GPU_TOTAL_POWER_CAP=400"

Environment="GPU_0_LOW_TEMP=40"

Environment="GPU_0_MEDIUM_TEMP=70"

Environment="GPU_0_LOW_TEMP_LIMIT=135"

Environment="GPU_0_MEDIUM_TEMP_LIMIT=120"

Environment="GPU_0_HIGH_TEMP_LIMIT=100"

Environment="GPU_1_LOW_TEMP=45"

Environment="GPU_1_MEDIUM_TEMP=75"

Environment="GPU_1_LOW_TEMP_LIMIT=140"

Environment="GPU_1_MEDIUM_TEMP_LIMIT=125"

Environment="GPU_1_HIGH_TEMP_LIMIT=110"

[Install] WantedBy=multi-user.target ```

Home Assistant

Add to Home Assistant configuration.yaml and restart HA (completely).

For a single GPU, this works: ``` sensor: - platform: rest name: MYPC GPU Information resource: http://mypc:9999 method: GET headers: Content-Type: application/json value_template: "{{ value_json[0].index }}" json_attributes: - name - gpu_utilisation - memory_utilisation - power_watts - power_limit_watts - memory_total_gb - memory_used_gb - memory_free_gb - memory_usage_percent - temperature scan_interval: 1 # seconds

• platform: template sensors: mypc_gpu_0_gpu: friendly_name: "MYPC {{ state_attr('sensor.mypc_gpu_information', 'name') }} GPU" value_template: "{{ state_attr('sensor.mypc_gpu_information', 'gpu_utilisation') }}" unit_of_measurement: "%" mypc_gpu_0_memory: friendly_name: "MYPC {{ state_attr('sensor.mypc_gpu_information', 'name') }} Memory" value_template: "{{ state_attr('sensor.mypc_gpu_information', 'memory_utilisation') }}" unit_of_measurement: "%" mypc_gpu_0_power: friendly_name: "MYPC {{ state_attr('sensor.mypc_gpu_information', 'name') }} Power" value_template: "{{ state_attr('sensor.mypc_gpu_information', 'power_watts') }}" unit_of_measurement: "W" mypc_gpu_0_power_limit: friendly_name: "MYPC {{ state_attr('sensor.mypc_gpu_information', 'name') }} Power Limit" value_template: "{{ state_attr('sensor.mypc_gpu_information', 'power_limit_watts') }}" unit_of_measurement: "W" mypc_gpu_0_temperature: friendly_name: "MYPC {{ state_attr('sensor.mypc_gpu_information', 'name') }} Temperature" value_template: "{{ state_attr('sensor.mypc_gpu_information', 'temperature') }}" unit_of_measurement: "°C" ```

For multiple GPUs: ``` rest: scan_interval: 1 resource: http://mypc:9999 sensor: - name: "MYPC GPU0 Information" value_template: "{{ value_json[0].index }}" json_attributes_path: "$.0" json_attributes: - name - gpu_utilisation - memory_utilisation - power_watts - power_limit_watts - memory_total_gb - memory_used_gb - memory_free_gb - memory_usage_percent - temperature - name: "MYPC GPU1 Information" value_template: "{{ value_json[1].index }}" json_attributes_path: "$.1" json_attributes: - name - gpu_utilisation - memory_utilisation - power_watts - power_limit_watts - memory_total_gb - memory_used_gb - memory_free_gb - memory_usage_percent - temperature

• platform: template sensors: mypc_gpu_0_gpu: friendly_name: "MYPC GPU0 GPU" value_template: "{{ state_attr('sensor.mypc_gpu0_information', 'gpu_utilisation') }}" unit_of_measurement: "%" mypc_gpu_0_memory: friendly_name: "MYPC GPU0 Memory" value_template: "{{ state_attr('sensor.mypc_gpu0_information', 'memory_utilisation') }}" unit_of_measurement: "%" mypc_gpu_0_power: friendly_name: "MYPC GPU0 Power" value_template: "{{ state_attr('sensor.mypc_gpu0_information', 'power_watts') }}" unit_of_measurement: "W" mypc_gpu_0_power_limit: friendly_name: "MYPC GPU0 Power Limit" value_template: "{{ state_attr('sensor.mypc_gpu0_information', 'power_limit_watts') }}" unit_of_measurement: "W" mypc_gpu_0_temperature: friendly_name: "MYPC GPU0 Temperature" value_template: "{{ state_attr('sensor.mypc_gpu0_information', 'temperature') }}" unit_of_measurement: "C"

• platform: template sensors: mypc_gpu_1_gpu: friendly_name: "MYPC GPU1 GPU" value_template: "{{ state_attr('sensor.mypc_gpu1_information', 'gpu_utilisation') }}" unit_of_measurement: "%" mypc_gpu_1_memory: friendly_name: "MYPC GPU1 Memory" value_template: "{{ state_attr('sensor.mypc_gpu1_information', 'memory_utilisation') }}" unit_of_measurement: "%" mypc_gpu_1_power: friendly_name: "MYPC GPU1 Power" value_template: "{{ state_attr('sensor.mypc_gpu1_information', 'power_watts') }}" unit_of_measurement: "W" mypc_gpu_1_power_limit: friendly_name: "MYPC GPU1 Power Limit" value_template: "{{ state_attr('sensor.mypc_gpu1_information', 'power_limit_watts') }}" unit_of_measurement: "W" mypc_gpu_1_temperature: friendly_name: "MYPC GPU1 Temperature" value_template: "{{ state_attr('sensor.mypc_gpu1_information', 'temperature') }}" unit_of_measurement: "C"

```

Basic entity card: type: entities entities: - entity: sensor.mypc_gpu_0_gpu secondary_info: last-updated - entity: sensor.mypc_gpu_0_memory secondary_info: last-updated - entity: sensor.mypc_gpu_0_power secondary_info: last-updated - entity: sensor.mypc_gpu_0_power_limit secondary_info: last-updated - entity: sensor.mypc_gpu_0_temperature secondary_info: last-updated

Ansible Role

```

• name: install go become: true package: name: golang-go state: present

• name: git clone git: repo: "https://github.com/sammcj/NVApi.git" dest: "/home/ansible/NVapi" update: yes force: true

go run main.go -port 9999 -rate 1

• name: install systemd service become: true copy: src: nvapi.service dest: /etc/systemd/system/nvapi.service

• name: Reload systemd daemons, enable, and restart nvapi become: true systemd: name: nvapi daemon_reload: yes enabled: yes state: restarted ```

@ 005bc4de:ef11e1a2

There was a time when I liked to regularly listen to NPR for their stories. And, I owe a certain something to NPR since that's where I first got interested in bitcoin. But, their incessant political hard-left, alt-left push eventually pushed me away. Nowadays, I'll sometimes listen in just to get annoyed at whatever silliness they're projecting.

January 9, 2025, I heard this: https://www.npr.org/2025/01/09/nx-s1-5228194/what-are-biodiversity-credits-and-could-have-a-meaningful-impact talking about "Biodiversity credits." I'd heard of "carbon credits" before, but never biodiversity credits.

Evidently, some "financial instrument" is being sold for $25 a pop as a "biodiversity credit." I assume the sales site is this one. With one credit purchased, your $25 gets you a promise from...someone. The promise, or "assurance", is to protect a 10 x 10 square meter splotch of Andean mountainside where the spectacled bear lives. The spectacled bear? I was unfamiliar with the spectacled bear, but evidently it's a bear that looks like a large raccoon and likes to scratch trees.

The NPR folks ponied up $25 for the so-called biodiversity credit financial instrument. After their purchase, the NPR journalists apparently traveled to Colombia, to the "water star" area where the alleged preserve exists as "El Globo." Okay, three things here:

1. They only buy one biodiversity credit? How's a spectacled bear supposed to live on a 10 x 10 meter square?!
2. I'll assume the journalists (I read this as plural since the article said "we"; I'll guess two people) flew from the US to Colombia. Are listeners/readers to just ignore the fact that they flew on a carbon-emitting jet to Colombia for the sole purpose of checking on a 100 square meter plot? This is the plot of land that exists supposedly to house animals threatened by supposed climate-caused deforestation, like jet exhaust? Are we to just pretend this hypocrisy is not there?
3. Are we to ignore that the plane tickets for two (not to mention room, board, and travel while visiting Colombia) could rather have been spent to buy more than one biodiversity credit and to ostensibly save more land?

I've got to say, this sounds like a $25 ticket to win a prize for an all expense paid trip to the Colombian Andes to see the exotic spectacled bear. Credit to those who pulled off this $25 trip to the water star region of Colombia; nicely done. Okay, maybe NPR had correspondents already in Colombia. Either way, first, it didn't sound that way in the report and secondly, there's more to the numbers.

According to the "climatetrade.com" website (that name, wow!), there are 310,000 biodiversity credits to be sold. Let's do the math:

310,000 credits times $25 for each credit comes to $7.75 million. El Globo is 340 hectares of land (that's 840 acres). $7.75M for 840 acres is $9,226 per acre.

Knowing zero about land value in Colombia, that still seemed high to me. Google Gemini AI informs me the median price is much lower. It reported this:

According to available information, the median price per acre of land in Colombia varies significantly depending on location and land quality, but generally falls within a range of $1,500 to $10,000 per hectare (equivalent to roughly $365 to $2,400 per acre).

Google Gemini

What's more, this is not for protection of the land in perpetuity...no, this is for 30 years only. Say what? This sounds to me like somebody's career plan: 30 years of protection, retirement, then I can't guarantee the land's protection after that. More likely, somewhere around about the 20 year mark, it will be time to start to re-up and start selling credits again. Well, at least these 30 years of protection are "verified by an independent third party." That should make us all feel better.

For a second opinion on numbers, I asked the AI, Microsoft Copilot. It said with $7.75 million USD one could buy a lot of land: between 7 and 16 thousand hectares. That's a lot more than the El Globo preserve of 340 hectares.

Understand, this is actually purchasing the land. If you purchase it, it can be held as a preserve forever, not just for 30 years.

And, speaking of money, and funding, and choices made in spending that money, remember that NPR gets US government money to operate. They take great pride in running hours-long annual fundraisers to ask you and me for public donations while giving "commercial-free programming." Yes, they literally run hours-long commercials for a week or two each year to say that they run commercial-free programming! 😆 You can't make this up. Nevertheless, NPR gets about $34 million from the government annually according to Microsoft Copilot AI.

NPR seems to go to lengths to downplay this government funding. It's a mess. NPR apparently says they get "less than 1%" of their $300 million annual budget from the government. (Disregard the fact that every other radio station supports themselves 100% and gets 0% from the government.) But, this 1% looks as though that's only money directly from the federal government. There is a larger chunk coming in via the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB), which is also government money. The CPB funds "member stations" and those stations pay dues to NPR. Somehow, this government doesn't count in NPR's eyes. So, despite the "1%" talk, it's still government money funneling to NPR. By masking this fact, NPR is making the whole situation look shadier than it is. It might do well to simply be up front about government funding rather than obfuscating it and making the whole thing look shady; "the cover up is worse than the crime," as they say. All told, the Copilot estimate is $33.9 million in government funds going to NPR annually (about 12% of their budget, not 1%). The other 88%, I guess, comes from donations by regular folks, foundations, and corporations who respond to the hours-long, weeks long annual fundraiser commercials about commercial-free programming.

Anyway, $33.9 million in government money, and $300 million total when you count in donations. That's a lot of hectares of Andean biodiversity credits that could be bought. Actually, NPR could have bought them all and the bears would be safe for 30 years. Also, as to those reporters who trekked to Colombia for a visit, that's a pretty good tax-supported, listener-supported gig that they pulled off: buy one "biodiversity credit", get a vacation to the Andean forest to see bear scratchings.

It gets worse. The outfit selling these biodiversity credits on https://market.climatetrade.com admits that $7.75 million is a lot of money for Moms and Pops to purchase all the credits. (I still can't get over that URL, at least it's honest by flat out stating they're making a market out of trading the climate.) They say they need corporations to chip in and buy mass credits. According to the report, they have meet-ups and shin-digs for this sort of thing, apparently. A favorite line for me in the piece was "...Handing out shots to promote a jaguar credit."

> Image created at https://leonardo.ai with the prompt: "well-dressed folks at the soirée laughing as they down a shot of tequila and suck a lemon in salute to said jaguar"

At this point, it seemed that these various credits were and are spinning off into something very much like the multitudes of memecoins...doge, dog-wif-hat, dog-wif-cat, dog-wif-pepe, pepe-wif-maximus, maximux-wif-spectacled-bear, spectacled-bear-wif-jaguar. Seriously, we have credits (tokens), we have "tokenomics" of a max supply and emission, we have a market to buy the the credits/tokens ICO-style. I wonder if there is a secondary market where NPR could unload their one biodiversity credit if they were to go full climate credit degen. I pictured in my mind the well-dressed folks at the soirée laughing as they down a shot of tequila and suck a lemon in salute to said jaguar in the report. "Jaguar credits to the moon!"

To be fair to NPR, they did include one man's counter to biodiversity credits. Mark Opel said this:

At the end of the day, companies are in the business of generating shareholder value. There is not a business case for biodiversity credits to generate shareholder value beyond a token amount of philanthropy and marketing.

That was some much-needed concise analysis and clarity, a voice of reason. The only value these credits bring to companies was "a token amount of philanthropy and marketing." So, we have two value transfers going on here:

1. The "El Globo" outfit gets value by making money on climatetrade.com...$7.75 million if all spots sell, only to be re-upped again in 30 years. Somebody is getting paid.
2. A company can get value by feeling good for saving spectacled bears and thereby looking good in the public eye. It gets feel-good press.

Here's the bottom line...

This story checks many of the boxes for an NPR listener. It's a mix of climate change, saving cute and furry animals, deforestation, fighting corporations who want to exploit the land, and feeling good that you did something for these things. I see why they chose to send reporters to Colombia for this story. This story fits the narrative.

Placebo Credits

Let's play this thing out.

Since the purpose of these credits is to (1) transfer money to some outfit and (2) make companies, or you, feel good and look good, then let's do this...

I want you to think of something that is wrong in this world right now. Think of something you feel is terribly unjust. Maybe it's the spectacled bear being pushed out by greedy corporations, or a baby polar bear swimming aimlessly searching for an ice floe, or maybe something else, like the blue footed booby. Maybe it's land being clear cut or burnt off or walls of ice breaking off into the ocean as lonely icebergs. Perhaps it's all the sad downtrodden puppies that could use your help. They are cold, they are hungry, they are sad. They are looking at you. Picture those puppies in your mind now.

To rectify whatever bad thing you are thinking of, whatever wrong you wish to help right, you can now buy Placebo Credits (PCs). Placebo Credits will make you feel that you are in fact doing your part; that you are truly making a difference in this world. Placebo Credits work.

To buy Placebo Credits, send bitcoin to the address below. One bitcoin satoshi will buy you one credit. Don't cheat yourself...the more PCs you buy, the better you will feel knowing that you are making a difference in this world.

Get Placebo Credits here: https://coinos.io/pay/crrdlx

Are you a Nostr user? Just send a zap! ⚡ A zap buys Placebo Credits too! Not on Nostr, get on it. Send zap, get Placebo Credits!

And, why only make a difference in this world? Don't constrain your imagination. Don't constrain how much you help the world and how much you help yourself in the process. Look up, look beyond, look to the stars. When you look at the stars tonight, pick one out. Pick out any of the beautiful stars above. It's twinkling at you, it's calling out to you...then help save that star. Buy Placebo Credits to help save your chosen star. Then, every night from today onward, you can look up at your shimmering, twinkling star. Let it remind you of your fight against all the wrongs that exist and your push toward a more just and verdant world. When you look at your star, let that point of light buoy up your resolve, and say to yourself, "I did my part...and I can do more."

> Source: leonardo.ai using the prompt: "beautiful stars shining brightly in the night sky creating a sense of wonder"

@ e83b66a8:b0526c2b

I watched Tucker Carlson interview Roger Ver last night.

I know we have our differences with Roger, and he has some less than pleasant personality traits, but he is facing 109 years in jail for tax evasion. While the charges may be technically correct, he should be able to pay the taxes and a fine and walk free. Even if we accept he did wrong, a minor prison term such as 6 months to 2 years would be appropriate in this case.

We all know the severe penalty is an over reach by US authorities looking to make the whole crypto community scared about using any form of crypto as money.

The US and many governments know they have lost the battle of Bitcoin as a hard asset, but this happened as a result of the Nash equilibrium, whereby you are forced to play a game that doesn’t benefit you, because not playing that game disadvantages you further. I.e. Governments loose control of the asset, but that asset is able to shore up their balance sheet and prevent your economy from failing (potentially).

The war against Bitcoin (and other cryptos) as a currency, whereby you can use your Bitcoin to buy anything anywhere from a pint of milk in the local shop, to a house or car and everything in-between is a distant goal and one that is happening slowly. But it is happening and these are the new battle lines.

Part of that battle is self custody, part is tax and part are the money transmitting laws.

Roger’s case is also being used as a weapon of fear.

I don’t hate Roger, the problem I have with Bitcoin cash is that you cannot run a full node from your home and if you can’t do this, it is left to large corporations to run the blockchain. Large corporations are much easier to control and coerce than thousands, perhaps millions of individuals. Just as China banned Bitcoin mining, so in this scenario it would be possible for governments to ban full nodes and enforce that ban by shutting down companies that attempted to do so.

Also, if a currency like Bitcoin cash scaled to Visa size, then Bitcoin Cash the company would become the new Visa / Mastercard and only the technology would change. However, even Visa and Mastercard don’t keep transaction logs for years, that would require enormous amount of storage and have little benefit. Nobody needs a global ledger that keeps a record of every coffee purchased in every coffee shop since the beginning of blockchain time.

This is why Bitcoin with a layer 2 payment system like Lightning is a better proposition than large blockchain cryptos. Once a payment channel is closed, the transactions are forgotten in the same way Visa and Mastercard only keep a transaction history for 1 or 2 years.

This continues to allow the freedom for anybody, anywhere to verify the money they hold and the transactions they perform along with everybody else. We have consensus by verification.

@ e83b66a8:b0526c2b

Can I suggest you read my book, it will tell you a lot. It is important you understand what Bitcoin is before you invest anything into it. https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0CLJP6R3F/

Firstly, Bitcoin is not like anything else you have ever experienced in your life. Everything else is based on trust and there is a higher authority you can always turn to.

If you loose access to your bank account, you can walk in to a branch with your ID papers and within half an hour or so, your account access will be restored by them. The bank control your account and the money held within it.

If you loose your passport or driving license, the government can issue you new ones. They control your identity.

If you get locked out of your house, you can call a locksmith and they will break in, legally, for you.

Bitcoin is different, it is permissionless and trustless. Nobody can stop you spending your money and you can send it to anyone anywhere in the world instantly without having to trust a third party to authorise payment for you.

By that same token, if you make a mistake and send it to the wrong address or if you loose the keys that secure your Bitcoin, it is gone, nobody can help you. You need to understand and be comfortable with that.

As for Bitcoin as a store of value, this is the first stage that all new Bitcoiners go through, but if you do it properly, it will eventually be the least significant feature.

However, as for Bitcoin price cycles. Every 4 years the supply is automatically halved. This happened on the 20th April this year, you probably saw we were in Warsaw at a halving party. It happened at 3:09am European time, so we were asleep.

Nothing actually happens for around 6 months of the halving, but from 6 - 18 months after the halving, the price rises significantly to adapt to the new supply and scarcity.

So, from the start of November the price has started to rise and will continue to do so in a saw tooth pattern for around the next year.

The price rise often overshoots the new natural price level and so expect a crash around the end of next year, it will be significant and will take a year or so to recover, but will eventually settle to a new price.

In 4 years time, around April 2028, the cycle will happen again.

Bitcoin is not a short term investment, don’t invest unless you are prepared to hold for a minimum of 4 years.

Holding bitcoin for 8 years can produce generational wealth.

The three core tenets of Bitcoin are:

Not your keys, not your coins - in other words, don’t leave them on exchanges

Don’t trust, verify - which leads to:

Do your own research

Study Bitcoin, it will give you back far more than you can imagine.

@ e8ed3798:67dd345a

Crowdsourcing subjective value is a great idea, but when no thought has been put into how to do it, the results are neither useful nor healthy.

In this article we discuss the problems with the classic five star rating system and why it needs to be abolished in favor of better expressions of public sentiment.

Part 1: What's In A Star?

Let's start with a thought experiment:

• Do you buy products on Amazon that have 3 stars?
• Do you take rides from Uber drivers that have 3 stars?
• Do you download apps on the App Store that have 3 stars?
• Do you visit places on Google Maps that have 3 stars?

"Not on purpose," is probably your answer. But why not? After all, a three out of five is better than the median; it's 60 percent! That is solidly "above average" by any usual measure. Although it makes sense in mathematical terms, it is not correct to say that a 3 star product is at least half as good as a 5 star product.

The funny thing about the 5 star rating system is that nobody really knows exactly what the stars mean, mostly because they aren't ever explained. They are just a weak abstraction of a score out of 5, which itself is an abstraction of a score out of 100, and it is used to average all ratings for a thing into an average star rating. Presumably, 5 is the best and 1 is the worst, and somewhere in between is... what exactly? Mediocre? Passable? Acceptable? Average? Who knows! This is the first problem with this system; while the top and bottom of the scale may be implied (ambiguity still isn't great), the middle of the scale is entirely ambiguous.

Most of the time, people start with a default supposition that a product ought to be 5 stars, and then they subtract stars according to their own perceived deficiencies of the product. On the flip side, people who are dissatisfied with a product tend to start at 1 star and perhaps award it a couple more if they are feeling charitable.

This dualistic approach highlights another issue with this kind of rating system. Despite the pure quantitative mechanism, the feelings and disposition of the rater ultimately assign meaning to the numeric scale.

Ultimately, any 5 star rating system ends up being a gamut ranging from hate it to love it with a lot of ambiguity in the middle.

To put it simply, the stars mean nothing. But to be more precise, the stars are the average of the numeric expression of the public sentiment about a thing.

OK, public sentiment. That's what we want right? We want to know what the public thinks about the product so we can make a good purchase decision.

Except, unfortunately, the 5 star rating system does an incredibly imprecise job at capturing what the public actually thinks about a product. Let's dive into why this is. But first, to conclude our thought experiment, I'd like to establish an informal consensus that we instinctually seek out the highest rated items and avoid ratings less than 4.5 out of 5, with infrequent exceptions. If this sounds like you, then let's proceed.

Part 2: Trash or Treasure

How does one turn their feelings into a number? This is not something people are good at, or do naturally, or are even required to do very often. It is also completely subjective and arbitrary. Does "happy" mean 5 or 100 or 902,581? It really depends on what you are trying to measure.

However, you've probably done this on a survey. Normally, a range of options is given with accompanying numbers. You may have heard a guiding explanation such as "Rate one through five, with one being 'least likely' and five being 'most likely' to recommend to a friend." Such explanations are useful in assisting a person in expressing their personal sentiments as a numeric range, and anecdotally I seem to provide more nuanced answers when I have guidance as to what each value actually means to me. However, such explanations are missing from most places where five star rating systems can make or break one's livelihood as a seller, developer, or musician. Users are normally given no guidance as to how a particular star value should correspond to their sentiment.

Accordingly, this manifests in an all too common star rating smiley. Like the famed "smiley face curve" equalizer setting popularized in the 70's in which the frequencies of a song were engineered to grow from the midranges upward toward the treble and bass making a smile shape (who's midrange is the lowest), the star rating smile is a common sight on product reviews where the most common review ratings appear anecdotally to be 5 and 1, then 4 and 2, and lastly 3.

The fact that the most common ratings are five stars and one star indicates that people most often do not think about their experience as a gradient between good and bad, but rather simply label their sentiment as only "good" or "bad" with little room for nuance. Having not received any guidance for expressing their sentiment numerically, this should be wholly unsurprising. But, I also feel like this binary outcome is a very natural expression that requires minimal mental energy to produce, and is therefore the most efficient expression of sentiment. I suspect that in another universe where we have a commonplace 15 star rating system but humans are the same, the most common ratings are 15 stars and 1 star respectively.

Other factors influence this binary good/bad paradigm too. People know instinctively that leaving a bad review is bad for business, and often this is their vengeful response to any sense of feeling as if they have been mistreated, misled, or swindled by the seller. Often times the sheer excitement of the new product compels people to write reviews only minutes after they have received it, precluding them from providing an experienced and time-tested perspective of how the product performs.

These quirks of human behavior can skew five star ratings severely. But the behaviors themselves are not bad! They are totally natural and expected. The real problem is how the five star rating system fails to capture these commonplace human sentiments accurately.

We need to build a rating system that works for people rather than forcing people to fit into a poorly executed rating system.

Part 3: Feast or Famine

It is natural that when presented with a plethora of options, humans will be drawn to the options that are labeled as "the best". When "best" possible is five stars, then five stars naturally becomes the Schelling pointfor all buyers and sellers, where the vast majority of economic activity is concentrated.

When all ratings are seen from a five-based perspective, fours look barely adequate. Threes look unacceptable. Twos are abject. And ones are complete disasters.

You may have heard about how Uber would suspend drivers whose ratings fell below 4.6. The tendency of five star rating systems is to create a gradient of sentiment where 1 to 4.5 stars is "bad" and 4.5 to 5 stars is "good".

One rarely discussed outcome of this dynamic is that good ratings are nearly impossible to compare to each other. As alluded to in the introduction thought experiment, the narrow range between 4.5 and 5 leaves very little room to distinguish from a good product and an excellent product; both are simply "good" or "not bad". As highly rated products are usually the products people are most interested in, it is unfortunate that a favorable rating would actually provide less signal than a bad rating as to the product's relative quality in the spectrum of good ratings.

Meanwhile, bad ratings have wide berth to compare numerically. The astronomical range between 1 and 4.5 is a very spacious gradient in which to assess how bad one product is versus another, except nobody actually cares because nobody is going to buy it anyway!

In the five star rating system, the better a product is, the less information we get to compare it to other similarly good products. This is a critical design flaw, because the better a product is and the more people review it, the more information we should have about it versus other similar products. It would be better if the range of "good" ratings was wider so that good ratings could be compared to each other.

I'd like to emphasize that the loss of precision as a product becomes more desirable is a truly ludicrous mechanic of the five star rating system. This poorly conceived rating paradigm completely pervades our digital economic systems and determines the success of millions of producers. Let's be clear about the stakes. Assigning subjective value to things is completely overlooked for what it really is: a absolutely critical and monumentally influential economic activity. Because the most important economic activity is how we assign value to things with money, the second most important economic activity is how we inform our economic value assignments with subjective value assignments such as these.

We need to fix how we rate things. It could literally change how entire economies function.

Part 4: Quality or Quantity

Valve has obviously put thought into how they handle ratings for video games sold through their extremely popular and long-lived Steam platform.

Reviews are not allowed until a certain amount of hours of the game have been played. The review must assign a thumbs-up or thumbs-down, and then provide a minimum amount of text.

Then, rather than simply providing an average of these binary ratings, Steam averages them over a recent period of time, creating a dynamic where if a game developer releases a new update, the reviews written more recently are sure to influence the overall rating of the game rather than old ratings that haven't taken the new update into consideration.

Finally, the aggregated rating itself is displayed as "Overwhelming Negative", "Very Negative", "Mostly Negative", "Mixed", "Mostly Positive", "Very Positive", or "Overwhelmingly Positive".

Ask yourself, which product would you be more likely to try? - 2.5/5 stars - "Mixed Reviews"

Ironically, the Steam rating system gives users less flexibility to express their sentiment as a number, and yet provides more depth, nuance, and balance to the resulting ratings. This, ladies and gentlemen, is what it looks like when somebody gives a damn about how things work. It is a great system.

Another interesting emergent behavior that accompanies many Steam reviews, as well as many reviews on other sites, are user generated pros/cons lists. These lists are helpful and offer qualitative labels that help to explain the quantitative rating assignment, although these labels are not mechanically related to the rating system itself.

Steam has another mechanism to express qualitative judgements in the form of labels, although they had to be restricted because they were being abused in undesirable or nefarious ways. Now the labeling system does more to tell you about what the game is rather than what people think about it, which is fine, but I feel like it is a missed opportunity.

Therefore, I'd like to propose a simple system that combines thumbs up/down and labeling to be used in the context of nostr's review system.

Part 5: QTS

I call this new review system QTS, or the "Qualitative Thumb System". Originally I developed QTS when working at Arcade Labs.

This PR for a new nostr review mechanism allows for a lot of flexibility in how you apply ratings to things, so QTS is simply a method of applying rating values that creates a better human-oriented review system. QTS is a way of using reviews.

In essence, QTS capitalizes on our very human instinct to assign a "good" or "bad" label by limiting the quantitative assessment to a thumbs-up or thumbs-down. Then, QTS provides qualitative labels that describe possible positive sentiments that describe different aspects of the thing being rated.

First, the user chooses thumbs-up or thumbs-down as their overall assessment. If they do nothing else, this is sufficient to capture their sentiment. However, labels should be provided which the user can check or toggle on to increase their rating further.

The initial thumbs up is worth 0.5, and each label is worth (0.5 / number of labels). The minimum rating is 0 (thumbs down, no labels), and the maximum rating is 1 (thumbs up and all labels). Any rating 0.5 or above is trending toward good and below 0.5 is trending toward bad.

The labels should be applicable in the context of the thing. So, for example, I might provide the following labels for place reviews in a Google Maps-style app: - Convenient - Clean - Affordable - Memorable - Inviting

These labels could possibly describe any place. It's OK if a place doesn't have all of these qualities. Zero labels and at thumbs up is still a "good" rating. Each label selected is essentially a "cherry on top" and its absence may indicate that either it isn't applicable OR the place failed to earn it.

Likewise, it is possible that you may give a place a thumbs-down and apply labels; this would result in a rating higher than 0 but still in the bad gradient (below 0.5).

Here are the key benefits I want to highlight of QTS: - The 5 star rating system forces a user to do the work of translating their sentiment into a quantity. With QTS, the user never has to translate their feelings into a number! They only express good or bad and pick labels, and the QTS mechanism does the work of translating this into a computation-friendly value. - The 5 star rating system generally results in a "bad" range from 1 to 4.5 and a "good" range from 4.5 to 5. QTS balances this with a "bad" rating at 0, a "good" rating at 0.5, and an excellent rating is anything above 0.5 (up to 1.0). This creates the maximum possible gradient between good and bad which makes it easier to compare similar ratings. Recall this in contrast to the 5 star rating system which actually loses precision as more ratings are provided. - It is also helpful that similar QTS ratings may have different labels, which will allow people to make easy qualitative assessments that do not depend on users generating their own pros/cons list.

Part 6: Implementing QTS

Here is how it works:

You give the user the option to rate a thumbs up or thumbs down.

Then, you also give your user the option to choose from a predefined set of positive labels. You can have any number of labels but try to keep it below 10 so as not to overwhelm your users. Keep the labels general enough that they could potentially apply to any thing being rated.

For example, if you were providing labels for Amazon.com, some good labels would be: - Good Value - Good Quality - As Described - Durable - Right Size

These labels are general enough that they could apply to almost any product. It is important to create labels that are general so that when comparing product ratings you are comparing the same labels. It is possible however that something like Amazon.com could define a different QTS label subset for each product category, and then the labels could be more specific to that category.

For example, a product category of Candles could have "Long Burning", "Good smell", "Safe", etc. These labels are much more specific, but appropriate for the Candle product category. The main point is that products which should be compared should use the same QTS label set.

Some poor examples of labels would be: - Orange (not really relevant to the product's assessment) - Easy to Lift (only relevant to certain products) - Made in USA (not really relevant to the product's assessment) - Cheap (not descriptive enough and could be interpreted as negative)

A score is derived as follows: - a thumbs-down is a score of 0.00 - a thumbs-up is a score of 0.50 - a label is worth 0.50 ÷ the number of labels available. So, if there are 3 labels to pick from, each label is worth 0.1666. The labels should all have the same value.

Here is an example by calvadev being used on Shopstr: https://github.com/nostr-protocol/nips/pull/879#issuecomment-2502210146

You can adjust the weights however you want. The fundamental thing that QTS prescribes is that a thumbs up gives a 50% score, and labels each contribute an equal share up to another 50%.

Conclusion

With nostr we have a great opportunity to improve the economic information available to the planet. A more efficient market based on higher quality information will improve civilization in ways we may not expect, but definitely deserve!

If you like this post, be sure to give it a thumbs up ✌😁

@ 6389be64:ef439d32

Resilience is the ability to withstand shocks, adapt, and bounce back. It’s an essential quality in nature and in life. But what if we could take resilience a step further? What if, instead of merely surviving, a system could improve when faced with stress? This concept, known as anti-fragility, is not just theoretical—it’s practical. Combining two highly resilient natural tools, comfrey and biochar, reveals how we can create systems that thrive under pressure and grow stronger with each challenge.

Comfrey: Nature’s Champion of Resilience

Comfrey is a plant that refuses to fail. Once its deep roots take hold, it thrives in poor soils, withstands drought, and regenerates even after being cut down repeatedly. It’s a hardy survivor, but comfrey doesn’t just endure—it contributes. Known as a dynamic accumulator, it mines nutrients from deep within the earth and brings them to the surface, making them available for other plants.

Beyond its ecological role, comfrey has centuries of medicinal use, earning the nickname "knitbone." Its leaves can heal wounds and restore health, a perfect metaphor for resilience. But as impressive as comfrey is, its true potential is unlocked when paired with another resilient force: biochar.

Biochar: The Silent Powerhouse of Soil Regeneration

Biochar, a carbon-rich material made by burning organic matter in low-oxygen conditions, is a game-changer for soil health. Its unique porous structure retains water, holds nutrients, and provides a haven for beneficial microbes. Soil enriched with biochar becomes drought-resistant, nutrient-rich, and biologically active—qualities that scream resilience.

Historically, ancient civilizations in the Amazon used biochar to transform barren soils into fertile agricultural hubs. Known as terra preta, these soils remain productive centuries later, highlighting biochar’s remarkable staying power.

Yet, like comfrey, biochar’s potential is magnified when it’s part of a larger system.

The Synergy: Comfrey and Biochar Together

Resilience turns into anti-fragility when systems go beyond mere survival and start improving under stress. Combining comfrey and biochar achieves exactly that.

1. Nutrient Cycling and Retention\ Comfrey’s leaves, rich in nitrogen, potassium, and phosphorus, make an excellent mulch when cut and dropped onto the soil. However, these nutrients can wash away in heavy rains. Enter biochar. Its porous structure locks in the nutrients from comfrey, preventing runoff and keeping them available for plants. Together, they create a system that not only recycles nutrients but amplifies their effectiveness.

2. Water Management\ Biochar holds onto water making soil not just drought-resistant but actively water-efficient, improving over time with each rain and dry spell.

3. Microbial Ecosystems\ Comfrey enriches soil with organic matter, feeding microbial life. Biochar provides a home for these microbes, protecting them and creating a stable environment for them to multiply. Together, they build a thriving soil ecosystem that becomes more fertile and resilient with each passing season.

Resilient systems can withstand shocks, but anti-fragile systems actively use those shocks to grow stronger. Comfrey and biochar together form an anti-fragile system. Each addition of biochar enhances water and nutrient retention, while comfrey regenerates biomass and enriches the soil. Over time, the system becomes more productive, less dependent on external inputs, and better equipped to handle challenges.

This synergy demonstrates the power of designing systems that don’t just survive—they thrive.

Lessons Beyond the Soil

The partnership of comfrey and biochar offers a valuable lesson for our own lives. Resilience is an admirable trait, but anti-fragility takes us further. By combining complementary strengths and leveraging stress as an opportunity, we can create systems—whether in soil, business, or society—that improve under pressure.

Nature shows us that resilience isn’t the end goal. When we pair resilient tools like comfrey and biochar, we unlock a system that evolves, regenerates, and becomes anti-fragile. By designing with anti-fragility in mind, we don’t just bounce back, we bounce forward.

By designing with anti-fragility in mind, we don’t just bounce back, we bounce forward.

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I started a long series of articles about how to model different types of knowledge graphs in the relational model, which makes on-device memory models for AI agents possible.

We model-directed graphs

Also, graphs of entities

We even model hypergraphs

Last time, we discussed why classical triple and simple knowledge graphs are insufficient for AI agents and complex memory, especially in the domain of time-aware or multi-model knowledge.

So why do we need metagraphs, and what kind of challenge could they help us to solve?

• complex and nested event and temporal context and temporal relations as edges
• multi-mode and multilingual knowledge
• human-like memory for AI agents that has multiple contexts and relations between knowledge in neuron-like networks

MetaGraphs

A meta graph is a concept that extends the idea of a graph by allowing edges to become graphs. Meta Edges connect a set of nodes, which could also be subgraphs. So, at some level, node and edge are pretty similar in properties but act in different roles in a different context.
Also, in some cases, edges could be referenced as nodes.
This approach enables the representation of more complex relationships and hierarchies than a traditional graph structure allows. Let’s break down each term to understand better metagraphs and how they differ from hypergraphs and graphs.

Graph Basics

• A standard graph has a set of nodes (or vertices) and edges (connections between nodes).
• Edges are generally simple and typically represent a binary relationship between two nodes.
• For instance, an edge in a social network graph might indicate a “friend” relationship between two people (nodes).

Hypergraph

• A hypergraph extends the concept of an edge by allowing it to connect any number of nodes, not just two.
• Each connection, called a hyperedge, can link multiple nodes.
• This feature allows hypergraphs to model more complex relationships involving multiple entities simultaneously. For example, a hyperedge in a hypergraph could represent a project team, connecting all team members in a single relation.
• Despite its flexibility, a hypergraph doesn’t capture hierarchical or nested structures; it only generalizes the number of connections in an edge.

Metagraph

• A metagraph allows the edges to be graphs themselves. This means each edge can contain its own nodes and edges, creating nested, hierarchical structures.
• In a meta graph, an edge could represent a relationship defined by a graph. For instance, a meta graph could represent a network of organizations where each organization’s structure (departments and connections) is represented by its own internal graph and treated as an edge in the larger meta graph.
• This recursive structure allows metagraphs to model complex data with multiple layers of abstraction. They can capture multi-node relationships (as in hypergraphs) and detailed, structured information about each relationship.

Named Graphs and Graph of Graphs

As you can notice, the structure of a metagraph is quite complex and could be complex to model in relational and classical RDF setups. It could create a challenge of luck of tools and software solutions for your problem.
If you need to model nested graphs, you could use a much simpler model of Named graphs, which could take you quite far.

The concept of the named graph came from the RDF community, which needed to group some sets of triples. In this way, you form subgraphs inside an existing graph. You could refer to the subgraph as a regular node. This setup simplifies complex graphs, introduces hierarchies, and even adds features and properties of hypergraphs while keeping a directed nature.

It looks complex, but it is not so hard to model it with a slight modification of a directed graph.
So, the node could host graphs inside. Let's reflect this fact with a location for a node. If a node belongs to a main graph, we could set the location to null or introduce a main node . it is up to you

Nodes could have edges to nodes in different subgraphs. This structure allows any kind of nesting graphs. Edges stay location-free

Meta Graphs in Relational Model

Let’s try to make several attempts to model different meta-graphs with some constraints.

Directed Metagraph where edges are not used as nodes and could not contain subgraphs

In this case, the edge always points to two sets of nodes. This introduces an overhead of creating a node set for a single node. In this model, we can model empty node sets that could require application-level constraints to prevent such cases.

Directed Metagraph where edges are not used as nodes and could contain subgraphs

Adding a node set that could model a subgraph located in an edge is easy but could be separate from in-vertex or out-vert.
I also do not see a direct need to include subgraphs to a node, as we could just use a node set interchangeably, but it still could be a case.

Directed Metagraph where edges are used as nodes and could contain subgraphs

As you can notice, we operate all the time with node sets. We could simply allow the extension node set to elements set that include node and edge IDs, but in this case, we need to use uuid or any other strategy to differentiate node IDs from edge IDs. In this case, we have a collision of ephemeral edges or ephemeral nodes when we want to change the role and purpose of the node as an edge or vice versa.

A full-scale metagraph model is way too complex for a relational database.
So we need a better model.

Now, we have more flexibility but loose structural constraints. We cannot show that the element should have one vertex, one vertex, or both. This type of constraint has been moved to the application level. Also, the crucial question is about query and retrieval needs.
Any meta-graph model should be more focused on domain and needs and should be used in raw form. We did it for a pure theoretical purpose.

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Hey folks! Today, let’s dive into the intriguing world of neurosymbolic approaches, retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), and personal knowledge graphs (PKGs). Together, these concepts hold much potential for bringing true reasoning capabilities to large language models (LLMs). So, let’s break down how symbolic logic, knowledge graphs, and modern AI can come together to empower future AI systems to reason like humans.

The Neurosymbolic Approach: What It Means ?

Neurosymbolic AI combines two historically separate streams of artificial intelligence: symbolic reasoning and neural networks. Symbolic AI uses formal logic to process knowledge, similar to how we might solve problems or deduce information. On the other hand, neural networks, like those underlying GPT-4, focus on learning patterns from vast amounts of data — they are probabilistic statistical models that excel in generating human-like language and recognizing patterns but often lack deep, explicit reasoning.

While GPT-4 can produce impressive text, it’s still not very effective at reasoning in a truly logical way. Its foundation, transformers, allows it to excel in pattern recognition, but the models struggle with reasoning because, at their core, they rely on statistical probabilities rather than true symbolic logic. This is where neurosymbolic methods and knowledge graphs come in.

Symbolic Calculations and the Early Vision of AI

If we take a step back to the 1950s, the vision for artificial intelligence was very different. Early AI research was all about symbolic reasoning — where computers could perform logical calculations to derive new knowledge from a given set of rules and facts. Languages like Lisp emerged to support this vision, enabling programs to represent data and code as interchangeable symbols. Lisp was designed to be homoiconic, meaning it treated code as manipulatable data, making it capable of self-modification — a huge leap towards AI systems that could, in theory, understand and modify their own operations.

Lisp: The Earlier AI-Language

Lisp, short for “LISt Processor,” was developed by John McCarthy in 1958, and it became the cornerstone of early AI research. Lisp’s power lay in its flexibility and its use of symbolic expressions, which allowed developers to create programs that could manipulate symbols in ways that were very close to human reasoning. One of the most groundbreaking features of Lisp was its ability to treat code as data, known as homoiconicity, which meant that Lisp programs could introspect and transform themselves dynamically. This ability to adapt and modify its own structure gave Lisp an edge in tasks that required a form of self-awareness, which was key in the early days of AI when researchers were exploring what it meant for machines to “think.”

Lisp was not just a programming language—it represented the vision for artificial intelligence, where machines could evolve their understanding and rewrite their own programming. This idea formed the conceptual basis for many of the self-modifying and adaptive algorithms that are still explored today in AI research. Despite its decline in mainstream programming, Lisp’s influence can still be seen in the concepts used in modern machine learning and symbolic AI approaches.

Prolog: Formal Logic and Deductive Reasoning

In the 1970s, Prolog was developed—a language focused on formal logic and deductive reasoning. Unlike Lisp, based on lambda calculus, Prolog operates on formal logic rules, allowing it to perform deductive reasoning and solve logical puzzles. This made Prolog an ideal candidate for expert systems that needed to follow a sequence of logical steps, such as medical diagnostics or strategic planning.

Prolog, like Lisp, allowed symbols to be represented, understood, and used in calculations, creating another homoiconic language that allows reasoning. Prolog’s strength lies in its rule-based structure, which is well-suited for tasks that require logical inference and backtracking. These features made it a powerful tool for expert systems and AI research in the 1970s and 1980s.

The language is declarative in nature, meaning that you define the problem, and Prolog figures out how to solve it. By using formal logic and setting constraints, Prolog systems can derive conclusions from known facts, making it highly effective in fields requiring explicit logical frameworks, such as legal reasoning, diagnostics, and natural language understanding. These symbolic approaches were later overshadowed during the AI winter — but the ideas never really disappeared. They just evolved.

Solvers and Their Role in Complementing LLMs

One of the most powerful features of Prolog and similar logic-based systems is their use of solvers. Solvers are mechanisms that can take a set of rules and constraints and automatically find solutions that satisfy these conditions. This capability is incredibly useful when combined with LLMs, which excel at generating human-like language but need help with logical consistency and structured reasoning.

For instance, imagine a scenario where an LLM needs to answer a question involving multiple logical steps or a complex query that requires deducing facts from various pieces of information. In this case, a solver can derive valid conclusions based on a given set of logical rules, providing structured answers that the LLM can then articulate in natural language. This allows the LLM to retrieve information and ensure the logical integrity of its responses, leading to much more robust answers.

Solvers are also ideal for handling constraint satisfaction problems — situations where multiple conditions must be met simultaneously. In practical applications, this could include scheduling tasks, generating optimal recommendations, or even diagnosing issues where a set of symptoms must match possible diagnoses. Prolog’s solver capabilities and LLM’s natural language processing power can make these systems highly effective at providing intelligent, rule-compliant responses that traditional LLMs would struggle to produce alone.

By integrating neurosymbolic methods that utilize solvers, we can provide LLMs with a form of deductive reasoning that is missing from pure deep-learning approaches. This combination has the potential to significantly improve the quality of outputs for use-cases that require explicit, structured problem-solving, from legal queries to scientific research and beyond. Solvers give LLMs the backbone they need to not just generate answers but to do so in a way that respects logical rigor and complex constraints.

Graph of Rules for Enhanced Reasoning

Another powerful concept that complements LLMs is using a graph of rules. A graph of rules is essentially a structured collection of logical rules that interconnect in a network-like structure, defining how various entities and their relationships interact. This structured network allows for complex reasoning and information retrieval, as well as the ability to model intricate relationships between different pieces of knowledge.

In a graph of rules, each node represents a rule, and the edges define relationships between those rules — such as dependencies or causal links. This structure can be used to enhance LLM capabilities by providing them with a formal set of rules and relationships to follow, which improves logical consistency and reasoning depth. When an LLM encounters a problem or a question that requires multiple logical steps, it can traverse this graph of rules to generate an answer that is not only linguistically fluent but also logically robust.

For example, in a healthcare application, a graph of rules might include nodes for medical symptoms, possible diagnoses, and recommended treatments. When an LLM receives a query regarding a patient’s symptoms, it can use the graph to traverse from symptoms to potential diagnoses and then to treatment options, ensuring that the response is coherent and medically sound. The graph of rules guides reasoning, enabling LLMs to handle complex, multi-step questions that involve chains of reasoning, rather than merely generating surface-level responses.

Graphs of rules also enable modular reasoning, where different sets of rules can be activated based on the context or the type of question being asked. This modularity is crucial for creating adaptive AI systems that can apply specific sets of logical frameworks to distinct problem domains, thereby greatly enhancing their versatility. The combination of neural fluency with rule-based structure gives LLMs the ability to conduct more advanced reasoning, ultimately making them more reliable and effective in domains where accuracy and logical consistency are critical.

By implementing a graph of rules, LLMs are empowered to perform deductive reasoning alongside their generative capabilities, creating responses that are not only compelling but also logically aligned with the structured knowledge available in the system. This further enhances their potential applications in fields such as law, engineering, finance, and scientific research — domains where logical consistency is as important as linguistic coherence.

Enhancing LLMs with Symbolic Reasoning

Now, with LLMs like GPT-4 being mainstream, there is an emerging need to add real reasoning capabilities to them. This is where neurosymbolic approaches shine. Instead of pitting neural networks against symbolic reasoning, these methods combine the best of both worlds. The neural aspect provides language fluency and recognition of complex patterns, while the symbolic side offers real reasoning power through formal logic and rule-based frameworks.

Personal Knowledge Graphs (PKGs) come into play here as well. Knowledge graphs are data structures that encode entities and their relationships — they’re essentially semantic networks that allow for structured information retrieval. When integrated with neurosymbolic approaches, LLMs can use these graphs to answer questions in a far more contextual and precise way. By retrieving relevant information from a knowledge graph, they can ground their responses in well-defined relationships, thus improving both the relevance and the logical consistency of their answers.

Imagine combining an LLM with a graph of rules that allow it to reason through the relationships encoded in a personal knowledge graph. This could involve using deductive databases to form a sophisticated way to represent and reason with symbolic data — essentially constructing a powerful hybrid system that uses LLM capabilities for language fluency and rule-based logic for structured problem-solving.

My Research on Deductive Databases and Knowledge Graphs

I recently did some research on modeling knowledge graphs using deductive databases, such as DataLog — which can be thought of as a limited, data-oriented version of Prolog. What I’ve found is that it’s possible to use formal logic to model knowledge graphs, ontologies, and complex relationships elegantly as rules in a deductive system. Unlike classical RDF or traditional ontology-based models, which sometimes struggle with complex or evolving relationships, a deductive approach is more flexible and can easily support dynamic rules and reasoning.

Prolog and similar logic-driven frameworks can complement LLMs by handling the parts of reasoning where explicit rule-following is required. LLMs can benefit from these rule-based systems for tasks like entity recognition, logical inferences, and constructing or traversing knowledge graphs. We can even create a graph of rules that governs how relationships are formed or how logical deductions can be performed.

The future is really about creating an AI that is capable of both deep contextual understanding (using the powerful generative capacity of LLMs) and true reasoning (through symbolic systems and knowledge graphs). With the neurosymbolic approach, these AIs could be equipped not just to generate information but to explain their reasoning, form logical conclusions, and even improve their own understanding over time — getting us a step closer to true artificial general intelligence.

Why It Matters for LLM Employment

Using neurosymbolic RAG (retrieval-augmented generation) in conjunction with personal knowledge graphs could revolutionize how LLMs work in real-world applications. Imagine an LLM that understands not just language but also the relationships between different concepts — one that can navigate, reason, and explain complex knowledge domains by actively engaging with a personalized set of facts and rules.

This could lead to practical applications in areas like healthcare, finance, legal reasoning, or even personal productivity — where LLMs can help users solve complex problems logically, providing relevant information and well-justified reasoning paths. The combination of neural fluency with symbolic accuracy and deductive power is precisely the bridge we need to move beyond purely predictive AI to truly intelligent systems.

Let's explore these ideas further if you’re as fascinated by this as I am. Feel free to reach out, follow my YouTube channel, or check out some articles I’ll link below. And if you’re working on anything in this field, I’d love to collaborate!

Until next time, folks. Stay curious, and keep pushing the boundaries of AI!

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Por décadas, o Brasil se beneficiou de um bônus demográfico, no qual a população em idade produtiva crescia mais rápido que a população dependente. Isso impulsionou a economia, o consumo e a urbanização. No entanto, essa era chegou ao fim.

Com a queda nas taxas de natalidade e o envelhecimento acelerado da população, o país enfrenta um futuro de baixo crescimento econômico, crise previdenciária e perda de relevância global. Pior ainda, o Brasil não tem a estrutura econômica e tecnológica necessária para compensar esse declínio populacional.

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O Fim do Bônus Demográfico Brasileiro

A transição demográfica do Brasil está acontecendo mais rápido do que o esperado. A taxa de fertilidade caiu abaixo do nível de reposição, e a população idosa cresce rapidamente.

Colapso da Taxa de Natalidade

O Brasil experimentou uma queda drástica na taxa de fecundidade nas últimas décadas:

• 1960: 6,3 filhos por mulher
• 2000: 2,3 filhos por mulher
• 2022: 1,6 filhos por mulher (abaixo da taxa de reposição de 2,1)
• Projeção para 2050: 1,5 filhos por mulher
• Fonte: Banco Mundial, IBGE, ONU

Essa queda acompanha tendências observadas no Japão, China e Coreia do Sul, países que agora sofrem com envelhecimento populacional e escassez de mão de obra. A diferença é que essas nações têm alta produtividade e tecnologia avançada para mitigar os efeitos demográficos. O Brasil não.

Envelhecimento da População e Redução da Força de Trabalho

• Em 2023, 10,5% da população brasileira tinha 65 anos ou mais.
• Em 2050, esse número será de 24%, ou seja, quase 1 em cada 4 brasileiros será idoso.
• A idade média da população aumentou de 19 anos (1980) para 34 anos (2023) e chegará a 45 anos até 2050.
• Fonte: IBGE, ONU

Com menos jovens entrando no mercado de trabalho e mais idosos dependendo do Estado, o sistema previdenciário e a economia entrarão em colapso.

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Crescimento Lento e Crise Previdenciária

O declínio da população em idade produtiva trará queda na produtividade, estagnação do crescimento e aumento dos custos sociais.

Encolhimento da Força de Trabalho

• Em 2020, havia 7 pessoas em idade ativa (15–64 anos) para cada idoso.
• Em 2050, essa proporção cairá para apenas 2,5 trabalhadores por aposentado.
• Fonte: IBGE, Banco Mundial

Isso significa que menos pessoas estarão trabalhando e pagando impostos para sustentar a previdência e os serviços públicos.

Colapso do Sistema Previdenciário

• Em 2022, os gastos com previdência representavam 13% do PIB do Brasil.
• Sem reformas, esse valor pode chegar a 18% do PIB até 2050, tornando o sistema insustentável.

O governo será forçado a aumentar impostos, cortar benefícios ou elevar a idade de aposentadoria—medidas impopulares que enfrentarão resistência política.

Crescimento Econômico Vai Despencar

• A taxa média de crescimento do PIB era de 4,5% ao ano nos anos 2000, mas caiu para apenas 1,2% ao ano entre 2013 e 2023.
• Com uma força de trabalho menor, o crescimento econômico de longo prazo ficará abaixo de 1% ao ano.

O Brasil entrará em um ciclo de baixo crescimento econômico e estagnação, tornando-se menos atrativo para investidores.

Queda no Investimento e Baixa Produtividade

• A taxa de investimento do Brasil é de apenas 17% do PIB, muito abaixo da China (40%) e da Índia (30%).
• O crescimento da produtividade total dos fatores (PTF) está praticamente zerado desde os anos 1980.
• Fonte: OCDE, Banco Mundial

Ou seja, o Brasil depende mais do crescimento populacional do que de ganhos de eficiência econômica—um modelo inviável com o encolhimento da força de trabalho.

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Comparação Internacional: Brasil Está em Posição Pior

Japão e Coreia do Sul (Envelhecendo, Mas Produtivos)

• O Japão viu sua força de trabalho diminuir, mas compensou com alta produtividade e inovação tecnológica.
• PIB per capita do Japão: US$ 39.000 (2023) vs. Brasil: US$ 10.000.
• Fonte: Banco Mundial

O Brasil não tem tecnologia, inovação nem uma economia avançada como o Japão, tornando sua situação mais grave.

China (Começando a Sofrer com o Envelhecimento)

• Taxa de fertilidade da China: 1,2 filhos por mulher (2023), ainda menor que a do Brasil.
• A população da China começou a encolher em 2022.
• O crescimento do PIB chinês caiu de 10% ao ano (2000) para 4% ao ano (2023) devido à queda da força de trabalho.
• Fonte: ONU

Se até a China, com sua indústria forte, está sofrendo, o Brasil, com baixa produtividade e poucos investimentos, enfrentará um cenário muito pior.

Estados Unidos e Índia (Demograficamente Fortes)

• EUA: Fertilidade de 1,7 filhos por mulher (acima do Brasil) e 1 milhão de imigrantes por ano, sustentando o crescimento da força de trabalho.
• Índia: População jovem (idade média de 28 anos) e forte crescimento econômico.
• Fonte: ONU, Censo dos EUA

Enquanto EUA e Índia continuarão crescendo, o Brasil envelhecerá sem soluções econômicas para compensar.

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Por Que o Brasil Não Conseguirá Reagir

Mesmo que o Brasil reconheça o problema, o país carece dos meios para reverter a crise demográfica.

Baixo Investimento em Tecnologia e Indústria

• O Brasil investe apenas 1,2% do PIB em P&D, enquanto a Coreia do Sul investe 4,8%.
• O crescimento da produtividade foi zero nas últimas duas décadas.
• Fonte: Banco Mundial, OCDE

Sem investimentos em tecnologia e inovação, o Brasil não conseguirá substituir a perda de trabalhadores por automação e ganhos de eficiência.

Corrupção e Instabilidade Política

• O Brasil ocupa a 94ª posição no Índice de Percepção da Corrupção, dificultando reformas.
• Ranking de Facilidade para Fazer Negócios: 124º lugar (de 190 países).
• Fonte: Transparência Internacional, Banco Mundial

A falta de reformas estruturais impedirá qualquer solução para a crise demográfica.

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O Brasil Caminha para o Declínio

O bônus demográfico do Brasil acabou, e os efeitos serão devastadores. O país não tem produtividade, investimentos ou governança eficiente para lidar com o envelhecimento populacional.

Sem uma força de trabalho jovem, sem inovação tecnológica e com um sistema previdenciário insustentável, o Brasil enfrentará estagnação econômica e perda de competitividade global. É impossível ser otimista sobre o futuro do Brasil.

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Introduction: Personal Knowledge Graphs and Linked Data

We will explore the world of personal knowledge graphs and discuss how they can be used to model complex information structures. Personal knowledge graphs aren’t just abstract collections of nodes and edges—they encode meaningful relationships, contextualizing data in ways that enrich our understanding of it. While the core structure might be a directed graph, we layer semantic meaning on top, enabling nuanced connections between data points.

The origin of knowledge graphs is deeply tied to concepts from linked data and the semantic web, ideas that emerged to better link scattered pieces of information across the web. This approach created an infrastructure where data islands could connect — facilitating everything from more insightful AI to improved personal data management.

In this article, we will explore how these ideas have evolved into tools for modeling AI’s semantic memory and look at how knowledge graphs can serve as a flexible foundation for encoding rich data contexts. We’ll specifically discuss three major paradigms: RDF (Resource Description Framework), property graphs, and a third way of modeling entities as graphs of graphs. Let’s get started.

Intro to RDF

The Resource Description Framework (RDF) has been one of the fundamental standards for linked data and knowledge graphs. RDF allows data to be modeled as triples: subject, predicate, and object. Essentially, you can think of it as a structured way to describe relationships: “X has a Y called Z.” For instance, “Berlin has a population of 3.5 million.” This modeling approach is quite flexible because RDF uses unique identifiers — usually URIs — to point to data entities, making linking straightforward and coherent.

RDFS, or RDF Schema, extends RDF to provide a basic vocabulary to structure the data even more. This lets us describe not only individual nodes but also relationships among types of data entities, like defining a class hierarchy or setting properties. For example, you could say that “Berlin” is an instance of a “City” and that cities are types of “Geographical Entities.” This kind of organization helps establish semantic meaning within the graph.

RDF and Advanced Topics

Lists and Sets in RDF

RDF also provides tools to model more complex data structures such as lists and sets, enabling the grouping of nodes. This extension makes it easier to model more natural, human-like knowledge, for example, describing attributes of an entity that may have multiple values. By adding RDF Schema and OWL (Web Ontology Language), you gain even more expressive power — being able to define logical rules or even derive new relationships from existing data.

Graph of Graphs

A significant feature of RDF is the ability to form complex nested structures, often referred to as graphs of graphs. This allows you to create “named graphs,” essentially subgraphs that can be independently referenced. For example, you could create a named graph for a particular dataset describing Berlin and another for a different geographical area. Then, you could connect them, allowing for more modular and reusable knowledge modeling.

Property Graphs

While RDF provides a robust framework, it’s not always the easiest to work with due to its heavy reliance on linking everything explicitly. This is where property graphs come into play. Property graphs are less focused on linking everything through triples and allow more expressive properties directly within nodes and edges.

For example, instead of using triples to represent each detail, a property graph might let you store all properties about an entity (e.g., “Berlin”) directly in a single node. This makes property graphs more intuitive for many developers and engineers because they more closely resemble object-oriented structures: you have entities (nodes) that possess attributes (properties) and are connected to other entities through relationships (edges).

The significant benefit here is a condensed representation, which speeds up traversal and queries in some scenarios. However, this also introduces a trade-off: while property graphs are more straightforward to query and maintain, they lack some complex relationship modeling features RDF offers, particularly when connecting properties to each other.

Graph of Graphs and Subgraphs for Entity Modeling

A third approach — which takes elements from RDF and property graphs — involves modeling entities using subgraphs or nested graphs. In this model, each entity can be represented as a graph. This allows for a detailed and flexible description of attributes without exploding every detail into individual triples or lump them all together into properties.

For instance, consider a person entity with a complex employment history. Instead of representing every employment detail in one node (as in a property graph), or as several linked nodes (as in RDF), you can treat the employment history as a subgraph. This subgraph could then contain nodes for different jobs, each linked with specific properties and connections. This approach keeps the complexity where it belongs and provides better flexibility when new attributes or entities need to be added.

Hypergraphs and Metagraphs

When discussing more advanced forms of graphs, we encounter hypergraphs and metagraphs. These take the idea of relationships to a new level. A hypergraph allows an edge to connect more than two nodes, which is extremely useful when modeling scenarios where relationships aren’t just pairwise. For example, a “Project” could connect multiple “People,” “Resources,” and “Outcomes,” all in a single edge. This way, hypergraphs help in reducing the complexity of modeling high-order relationships.

Metagraphs, on the other hand, enable nodes and edges to themselves be represented as graphs. This is an extremely powerful feature when we consider the needs of artificial intelligence, as it allows for the modeling of relationships between relationships, an essential aspect for any system that needs to capture not just facts, but their interdependencies and contexts.

Balancing Structure and Properties

One of the recurring challenges when modeling knowledge is finding the balance between structure and properties. With RDF, you get high flexibility and standardization, but complexity can quickly escalate as you decompose everything into triples. Property graphs simplify the representation by using attributes but lose out on the depth of connection modeling. Meanwhile, the graph-of-graphs approach and hypergraphs offer advanced modeling capabilities at the cost of increased computational complexity.

So, how do you decide which model to use? It comes down to your use case. RDF and nested graphs are strong contenders if you need deep linkage and are working with highly variable data. For more straightforward, engineer-friendly modeling, property graphs shine. And when dealing with very complex multi-way relationships or meta-level knowledge, hypergraphs and metagraphs provide the necessary tools.

The key takeaway is that only some approaches are perfect. Instead, it’s all about the modeling goals: how do you want to query the graph, what relationships are meaningful, and how much complexity are you willing to manage?

Conclusion

Modeling AI semantic memory using knowledge graphs is a challenging but rewarding process. The different approaches — RDF, property graphs, and advanced graph modeling techniques like nested graphs and hypergraphs — each offer unique strengths and weaknesses. Whether you are building a personal knowledge graph or scaling up to AI that integrates multiple streams of linked data, it’s essential to understand the trade-offs each approach brings.

In the end, the choice of representation comes down to the nature of your data and your specific needs for querying and maintaining semantic relationships. The world of knowledge graphs is vast, with many tools and frameworks to explore. Stay connected and keep experimenting to find the balance that works for your projects.

@ e6817453:b0ac3c39

The temporal semantics and temporal and time-aware knowledge graphs. We have different memory models for artificial intelligence agents. We all try to mimic somehow how the brain works, or at least how the declarative memory of the brain works. We have the split of episodic memory and semantic memory. And we also have a lot of theories, right?

Declarative Memory of the Human Brain

How is the semantic memory formed? We all know that our brain stores semantic memory quite close to the concept we have with the personal knowledge graphs, that it’s connected entities. They form a connection with each other and all those things. So far, so good. And actually, then we have a lot of concepts, how the episodic memory and our experiences gets transmitted to the semantic:

• hippocampus indexing and retrieval
• sanitization of episodic memories
• episodic-semantic shift theory

They all give a different perspective on how different parts of declarative memory cooperate.

We know that episodic memories get semanticized over time. You have semantic knowledge without the notion of time, and probably, your episodic memory is just decayed.

But, you know, it’s still an open question:

do we want to mimic an AI agent’s memory as a human brain memory, or do we want to create something different?

It’s an open question to which we have no good answer. And if you go to the theory of neuroscience and check how episodic and semantic memory interfere, you will still find a lot of theories, yeah?

Some of them say that you have the hippocampus that keeps the indexes of the memory. Some others will say that you semantic the episodic memory. Some others say that you have some separate process that digests the episodic and experience to the semantics. But all of them agree on the plan that it’s operationally two separate areas of memories and even two separate regions of brain, and the semantic, it’s more, let’s say, protected.

So it’s harder to forget the semantical facts than the episodes and everything. And what I’m thinking about for a long time, it’s this, you know, the semantic memory.

Temporal Semantics

It’s memory about the facts, but you somehow mix the time information with the semantics. I already described a lot of things, including how we could combine time with knowledge graphs and how people do it.

There are multiple ways we could persist such information, but we all hit the wall because the complexity of time and the semantics of time are highly complex concepts.

Time in a Semantic context is not a timestamp.

What I mean is that when you have a fact, and you just mentioned that I was there at this particular moment, like, I don’t know, 15:40 on Monday, it’s already awake because we don’t know which Monday, right? So you need to give the exact date, but usually, you do not have experiences like that.

You do not record your memories like that, except you do the journaling and all of the things. So, usually, you have no direct time references. What I mean is that you could say that I was there and it was some event, blah, blah, blah.

Somehow, we form a chain of events that connect with each other and maybe will be connected to some period of time if we are lucky enough. This means that we could not easily represent temporal-aware information as just a timestamp or validity and all of the things.

For sure, the validity of the knowledge graphs (simple quintuple with start and end dates)is a big topic, and it could solve a lot of things. It could solve a lot of the time cases. It’s super simple because you give the end and start dates, and you are done, but it does not answer facts that have a relative time or time information in facts . It could solve many use cases but struggle with facts in an indirect temporal context. I like the simplicity of this idea. But the problem of this approach that in most cases, we simply don’t have these timestamps. We don’t have the timestamp where this information starts and ends. And it’s not modeling many events in our life, especially if you have the processes or ongoing activities or recurrent events.

I’m more about thinking about the time of semantics, where you have a time model as a hybrid clock or some global clock that does the partial ordering of the events. It’s mean that you have the chain of the experiences and you have the chain of the facts that have the different time contexts.

We could deduct the time from this chain of the events. But it’s a big, big topic for the research. But what I want to achieve, actually, it’s not separation on episodic and semantic memory. It’s having something in between.

Blockchain of connected events and facts

I call it temporal-aware semantics or time-aware knowledge graphs, where we could encode the semantic fact together with the time component.I doubt that time should be the simple timestamp or the region of the two timestamps. For me, it is more a chain for facts that have a partial order and form a blockchain like a database or a partially ordered Acyclic graph of facts that are temporally connected. We could have some notion of time that is understandable to the agent and a model that allows us to order the events and focus on what the agent knows and how to order this time knowledge and create the chains of the events.

Time anchors

We may have a particular time in the chain that allows us to arrange a more concrete time for the rest of the events. But it’s still an open topic for research. The temporal semantics gets split into a couple of domains. One domain is how to add time to the knowledge graphs. We already have many different solutions. I described them in my previous articles.

Another domain is the agent's memory and how the memory of the artificial intelligence treats the time. This one, it’s much more complex. Because here, we could not operate with the simple timestamps. We need to have the representation of time that are understandable by model and understandable by the agent that will work with this model. And this one, it’s way bigger topic for the research.”

@ 17538dc2:71ed77c4

Nassim Nicholas Taleb writes:

“We cannot explain everything. We know more about what something is not than what something is. If there would have been no word for colour blue, it would still have existed in reality. It would only have been absent in linguistics. But since we don’t have a word for it, we couldn’t define or comprehend it. But we still could say what it is not. It is not orange. It’s not an elephant, etc. This method of knowledge is truer and more rigorous than positive knowledge.”

In this article, I introduce practical examples of how to apply via negativa to various systems.

Recommended reading is Antifragile by N. N. Taleb.

The basic template is as follows:

What is ____ not?

Let's start with something every human should be familiar with - food.

Food

Take hot pockets. Is hot pockets food?

What is not food?

To answer this question, let's examine the contents of hot pockets.

There seem to be chemistry lab sounding ingredients ("MEDIUM CHAIN TRIGLYCERIES", "SODIUM STEAROYL LACTYLATE"), as well as food items that your great-great-great-great-great-great grandma cooked with ("SALT", "BEEF" etc.)

So What happens when we apply via negativa to the ingredients?

From 30 "ingredients" we deduce a couple foood items, or a ~90% reduction in "ingredients" by eliminating processed food slop.

meat good

bread yum

Free Discourse

Take the social media platform X.

X consists of: leased identity, censored speech, and a tech platform for discourse. On the roadmap is social media score that will be used to determine if you can pay your bills when X launches its' bank.

What is free discourse not?

Removing the ingredient of WEF,

KYC lease hell

and censorship

we receive nostr .

Nostr, to my best understanding, is not a WEF globo-homo participant, does not lease identities, and it is that much more difficult to censor wrongspeak (e.g. Netanyahu and friends are commiting genocide, and wanted as war criminals; there are two genders; there is no climate crisis; Ivermectin works).

Automobiles

Modern automobiles can be summed up in two words: "safety", and constant surveillance. Yes, advancements in safety are great - e.g. airbags, seatbelts, car frames that absorb impact energy.

However the "its for your safety" component of remote shutdown, remote control, location data selling to data brokers, insurance agents, and your local surveillance outfit is gulag tech.

!(image)[https://image.nostr.build/15befd30113614dad3fd7aac01b8771b95bd8ace9186ed4f8016eec6e886e969.jpg]

So what happens when we remove the gulag tech out of cars? That is, what is not a car?

Let's use the following definition of car:

``` A car, or an automobile, is a motor vehicle with wheels

```

Let's use the following definition of gulag:

``` The Gulag is recognized as a major instrument of political repression in the Soviet Union.

```

You get the 2024 Toyota Land Cruiser. No gulag. Airbags. Push and turn knobs. No spying, no remote control, no cameras, no satellite, no bluetooth, no wi-fi.

As an aside, it is practically impossible to import this car to the US. It's "for your safety", and "for the environment", of course.

!(image)[https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a1/Toyota_Land_Cruiser_16.09.20_JM_%283%29_%28cropped%29.jpg/800px-Toyota_Land_Cruiser_16.09.20_JM_%283%29_%28cropped%29.jpg]?20210328155727

Toyota Landcruiser HZJ-79 Double Cab, Johannes Maximilian https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Toyota_Land_Cruiser_16.09.20_JM_(3)_(cropped).jpg).

Hopefully this guide has been helpful illustrating how simple and powerful it is to apply the Via Negativa approach.

Mr. Taleb, I commend you on speaking out on the Palestine genocide. I invite you to and hope one day you join anti-fragile nostr.

@ 3b19f10a:4e1f94b4

Sometimes perspective is everything...

artmodel

nude

nudemodel

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@ b8851a06:9b120ba1

It Begins with a Click

It starts with a click: “Do you agree to our terms and conditions?”\ You scroll, you click, you comply. A harmless act, right? But what if every click was a surrender? What if every "yes" was another link in the chain binding you to a life where freedom requires approval?

This is the age of permission. Every aspect of your life is mediated by gatekeepers. Governments demand forms, corporations demand clicks, and algorithms demand obedience. You’re free, of course, as long as you play by the rules. But who writes the rules? Who decides what’s allowed? Who owns your life?

---

Welcome to Digital Serfdom

We once imagined the internet as a digital frontier—a vast, open space where ideas could flow freely and innovation would know no bounds. But instead of creating a decentralized utopia, we built a new feudal system.

• Your data? Owned by the lords of Big Tech.
• Your money? Controlled by banks and bureaucrats who can freeze it on a whim.
• Your thoughts? Filtered by algorithms that reward conformity and punish dissent.

The modern internet is a land of serfs and lords, and guess who’s doing the farming? You. Every time you agree to the terms, accept the permissions, or let an algorithm decide for you, you till the fields of a system designed to control, not liberate.

They don’t call it control, of course. They call it “protection.” They say, “We’re keeping you safe,” as they build a cage so big you can’t see the bars.

---

Freedom in Chains

But let’s be honest: we’re not just victims of this system—we’re participants. We’ve traded freedom for convenience, sovereignty for security. It’s easier to click “I Agree” than to read the fine print. It’s easier to let someone else hold your money than to take responsibility for it yourself. It’s easier to live a life of quiet compliance than to risk the chaos of true independence.

We tell ourselves it’s no big deal. What’s one click? What’s one form? But the permissions pile up. The chains grow heavier. And one day, you wake up and realize you’re free to do exactly what the system allows—and nothing more.

---

The Great Unpermissioning

It doesn’t have to be this way. You don’t need their approval. You don’t need their systems. You don’t need their permission.

The Great Unpermissioning is not a movement—it’s a mindset. It’s the refusal to accept a life mediated by gatekeepers. It’s the quiet rebellion of saying, “No.” It’s the realization that the freedom you seek won’t be granted—it must be reclaimed.

• Stop asking. Permission is their tool. Refusal is your weapon.
• Start building. Embrace tools that decentralize power: Bitcoin, encryption, open-source software, decentralized communication. Build systems they can’t control.
• Stand firm. They’ll tell you it’s dangerous. They’ll call you a radical. But remember: the most dangerous thing you can do is comply.

The path won’t be easy. Freedom never is. But it will be worth it.

---

The New Frontier

The age of permission has turned us into digital serfs, but there’s a new frontier on the horizon. It’s a world where you control your money, your data, your decisions. It’s a world of encryption, anonymity, and sovereignty. It’s a world built not on permission but on principles.

This world won’t be given to you. You have to build it. You have to fight for it. And it starts with one simple act: refusing to comply.

---

A Final Word

They promised us safety, but what they delivered was submission. The age of permission has enslaved us to the mundane, the monitored, and the mediocre. The Great Unpermissioning isn’t about tearing down the old world—it’s about walking away from it.

You don’t need to wait for their approval. You don’t need to ask for their permission. The freedom you’re looking for is already yours. Permission is their power—refusal is yours.

@ 0d532801:197a0c30

Mr. Robot

Dünya tehlikeli bir yer. Kötülük yapanlar yüzünden değil, görüp de hiçbir şey yapmayanlar yüzünden.

İnsanları okumada çok iyiyimdir. İçlerindeki en kötü şeyi ararım.

Herkes çalar. Bu böyledir. İnsanlar tam anlamıyla hak ettiklerini mi kazanıyorlar? Hayır. Ya fazla ya da az alıyorlar ama zincirdeki biri her zaman kaymağını götürüyor.

Bir adama bir silah verirsen bir bankayı soyabilir ama bir adama bir banka verirsen dünyayı soyar.

İnsanlar her zaman umudumu boşa çıkarmanın bir yolunu buldu.

Bir holdingi kalbini hedef alarak çökertemezsin. Holdinglerin olayı budur, kalpleri olmaz. Onları parça parça çökertirsin. Ve çözülmeye başladıkları zaman kontrol yanılsamaları da çözülür.

Büyük bir fırsat ondan faydalanılmasını bekler.

Seçimlerimiz üzerinde kontrol sahibi olup olmadığımızı nasıl bileceğiz? Sadece önümüze gelen şeyin en iyisini yapmaya çalışıyoruz, olay bu. Sürekli iki seçenekten birini seçmeye çalışıyoruz. Tıpkı bekleme salonundaki iki tablo gibi. Ya da Coca-Cola ve Pepsi. Mcdonald's veya Burger King. Hyundai veya Honda. Hepsi aynı bulanıklığın parçası. Odak dışında kalan bulanıklık. Seçimin yanılsaması. Kendi istediğimiz kablolu yayın, doğalgaz ve elektrik şirketini bile seçemiyoruz. içtiğimiz su, sağlık sigortamız.. Seçebilseydik bile fark eder miydi ki? Eğer tek seçim şansımız kılıç ve kalkan arasında oluyorsa bu nasıl seçimdir amına koyayım? Aslında aynı değiller midir? Hayır, seçimlerimiz bizim için tayin edilmiş uzun zaman önce.

İnsanlar etrafta dolaşıp nefretin ne demek olduğunu biliyormuş gibi yapıyorlar. Hayır, kimse bilemez. Ta ki kendinden nefret edene kadar. Demek istediğim, gerçekten kendinden nefret etmek. Bu, güçtür.

İnsanlar iletişim kuramadıkları zaman öfkelenir.

İçinde yaşadığımız dünya bu. İnsanlar birbirlerinin hatalarına bel bağlıyor. Birbirlerini kandırmak için başkalarını kullanıyorlar. Hatta birbirleri ile ilişkili oluyorlar. Sıcak, dağınık bir insan çemberi.

Bu, kendimi korumanın tek yolu: onlara asla kaynak kodumu göstermemek. Kendimi kapatmak. Beni kimsenin bulamayacağı soğuk, kusursuz labirentimi yaratmak. Ama artık daha normal olacağım. Belki kız arkadaşım bile olabilir. Onunla birlikte aptal marvel filmlerine gideceğim. Spor salonuna yazılacağım. Instagram'da bir şeyleri beğeneceğim. Vanilyalı latteler içeceğim. Bu andan itibaren açıksız bir hayat süreceğim. Kusursuz labirentimi korumak için her şeyi yapacağım.

Bir maskeyi, artık maske olmayı bıraktığında nasıl çıkarırsın? Senin kadar senin bir parçan olduğunda.

@ 554ab6fe:c6cbc27e

We live in a world where the advances in modern medicine are heralded as achievements beyond our wildest dreams. Science is truly amazing and will continue to propel human life forward in tremendous ways. However, our journey as scientific healers is in its extreme infancy, and what we see as medicine today will be interpreted as primitive in the decades or centuries to come. I think there is already an aspect of medicine that is incredibly underrepresented, an aspect of human health that many still ignore; the recognition of the integral relationship between the body and mind.

Starting with my interest in the health benefits of mindfulness meditation, I have found that the body, its organs, and its systems are all incredibly interconnected to our mind and experience of consciousness. We often perceive each organ as separate and independent piece of our complicated “machine”, but this is far from the truth. For example, the gut affects the state of the mind, mental health translates into physical health, physical health translates back into mental health, etc. I tend to imagine the body as more of a soup, where everything is just a fluid flowing around, and a change in one area causes a ripple that influences everywhere else. Understanding the entire ecosystem, and how it functions to maintain balance, is at the heart of having true understanding of our own bodies, health, and how to obtain satisfaction in life. These ideas are rooted in core philosophies of eastern medicine, yet our western society often disregards these practices as pseudoscience and unfounded. As science matures, and more research is conducted, this naivety diminishes. It is my hope to share some scientific research that highlights how interconnected all the systems are, to explain the importance and scientific validly of holistic health. This article will provide a brief introduction to these topics. It will be the intent of this entire blog to further develop upon these ideas, as time continues to flow.

To begin, discussion of gut health, microbiota, and how it interacts with the brain is a sure way to articulate the beauty of our inner ecosystem. Many have heard the phrase “you are what you eat”. The cells from the food we consume become the cells that make our body, but this is an extreme oversimplification. Our gut is composed of more than just the organs and juices that process our food. It is also home to 300-500 bacterial species called microbiota (Quigley, 2010). These foreign species that live inside of us, come from the foods we eat, and they have a profound impact on our physical and mental health. A healthy colony of microbiota in our gut wall is essential for selectively allowing nutrients into our systems, while keeping other more harmful molecules such as pathogens out (Househam et al., 2017). Therefore, a healthy microbiota population has a severe impact on immune health. Additionally, microbiota, via the vagus nerve, may have influence over our dietary behavior (Alcock et al., 2014). For example, people who desire chocolate and those who are indifferent to it seem to have different microbiota (Rezzi et al., 2007). Other examples, from mice studies, have shown different mood styles depending on the food given (Bercik et al., 2011). Decreasing stress through probiotics (foods containing gut bacteria) in humans has also been achieved (Messaoudi et al., 2011). So, on top of affecting our immune health, our gut bacteria colony seems to affect our mind by both influencing what we want to eat and our mood. This is a clear example of how the body affects the mind. Not to mention, our mind obviously makes choices in what we eat. Therefore, our mind also affects our body. Hopefully this illustrates the cyclical nature of the influence our mind and body have on each other. Perhaps this also sparks interest in having more attention over our own diets. I know it has for me.

The gut is not the only body part to have this type of relationship with the mind; our heart does as well. The brain has dramatic influence over the heart. Our nervous system contains the autonomic nervous system, and within it are two branches: the sympathetic and parasympathetic nervous systems. The sympathetic nervous system induces the “fight or flight” response, which increases heart rate. The parasympathetic is the opposite and slows heart rate. The heart is continuously receiving signals from both branches and changes its pace accordingly (Armour, 1994). The cardiovascular system also has its own set of sensory neurons, so that it can regulate its pace on its own (Armour, 1994). It is a vital organ for life, and therefore must have robust communication back and forth between itself and the brain, to maintain proper functionality and harmony between the two major systems. This is in part why the heart and cardiovascular systems relay more information to the brain than any other organ in the body (Cameron, 2002). Additionally, this means that its influence over the brain is significant. It seems obvious that our emotional state can influence heart rate. When we get scared or nervous, our heart rate increases. This is something we have all experienced. However, heart rate not only represents our emotional states, but it can also determine them (Mccraty et al., 2009). Many of the afferent neurons sending signals from the heart to the brain innervate with the brain’s thalamus, hypothalamus, and amygdala, which all play a role in emotional processing (Mccraty et al., 2009). More evidence for this theory is found in research that shows panic is frequently generated after unrecognized cardiac arrhythmia (Mccraty et al., 2009). Not only does the mind influence the heart, but so does the heart influence the mind, likely in ways that we do not fully comprehend yet. Nonetheless, I hope it is becoming clear that our mind not only influences the activity of organs, but these organs also influence the mind and brain. Therefore, there seems to be a cyclical interaction and communication between our brain and body that is constantly at work. In which case, the brain is the body, and the body is the brain. It is one giant ecosystem influencing and reacting to itself.

A practice that seems to properly highlight the significance of the mind body relationship is meditation. Meditation can be thought of as both a physical and mental activity. It is mental in the sense that it involves a practice of processing all incoming thoughts, feelings, and emotions in a nonjudgmental way to learn to dereify thoughts (to learn that thoughts are not a part of reality)(Wielgosz et al., 2019). Additionally, it incorporates a physical aspect of breath work. Advanced meditators seem to commonly arrive at a calm breathing frequency of 8 breaths / minute (0.13Hz) (Cysarz & Büssing, 2005), suggesting that the process of meditation leads to certain breathing patterns. Of course, meditation can become even more physical within the practice that we commonly refer to as yoga, Tai Chi （太极）, or Qi Gong (气功). These practices involve a certain orientation to the body and present moments that promote mindfulness.

The mental practice of mindfulness and meditation seem to lead to very healthy mental outcomes. For example, large meta-analysis studies have found that mindfulness-based practices lead to decreased ruminations, stress, anxiety (Greeson et al., 2018; Querstret et al., 2020). These poor mental habits are highly correlated to a wandering mind that is time traveling to the past and future. Mindfulness meditation is amazingly helpful in alleviating these psychological burdens by creating a practice of keeping the mind present. Furthermore, this field of practice not only affects the mind, but also the body. For example, there has been research to suggest that pranayama breathing may aid in the alleviation of asthmatic symptoms (Agnihotri et al., 2016; Jayawardena et al., 2020; Saxena & Saxena, 2009). The main theory behind how meditation leads to all the physical and mental benefits comes from the idea that meditation may increase vagus nerve tone. If this is true, then it has profound implications on the relationship between the mind and body. The vagus nerve is the longest nerve in the body (Bonaz et al., 2017), and is the main nerve for the parasympathetic nervous system. The activation of that nerve alters the state of most organs and systems throughout the body via promoting parasympathetic activity. Given our modern stressful lives, this is something our body is in dire need of. If the practice of meditation, which is largely mental, is truly capable of influencing the activation of this nerve, then the interplay between mind and body should be taken very seriously from a health care point of view. If science continues to promote this finding, then meditation could potentially be one of the most powerful ways we can promote health within ourselves.

Much of this blog will be devoted to the pursuit of the understanding of how the mind and body is related. How is the mind, our experience, and perception of world dictated by both our mental and physical habits? Additionally, how do physical habits influence the mind? Together, we can slowly learn how the body and mind work in a holistic manner, to gain more control over our health and well-being. I look forward to this journey of inquiry, and I hope you will join me on it.

References

Agnihotri, S., Kant, S., Mishra, S. K., & Singh, R. (2016). Efficacy of yoga in mild to moderate persistent chronic bronchial asthma. Indian Journal of Traditional Knowledge, 15(2), 337–340.

Alcock, J., Maley, C. C., & Aktipis, C. A. (2014). Is eating behavior manipulated by the gastrointestinal microbiota? Evolutionary pressures and potential mechanisms. BioEssays, 36(10), 940–949. https://doi.org/10.1002/bies.201400071

Armour, J. A. (1994). The role of peripheral autonomic neurons in cardiac regulation. Neurocardiology, 219–244. https://ci.nii.ac.jp/naid/10025731968

Bercik, P., Denou, E., Collins, J., Jackson, W., Lu, J., Jury, J., Deng, Y., Blennerhassett, P., MacRi, J., McCoy, K. D., Verdu, E. F., & Collins, S. M. (2011). The intestinal microbiota affect central levels of brain-derived neurotropic factor and behavior in mice. Gastroenterology, 141(2), 599–609. https://doi.org/10.1053/j.gastro.2011.04.052

Bonaz, B., Sinniger, V., & Pellissier, S. (2017). The vagus nerve in the neuro-immune axis: Implications in the pathology of the gastrointestinal tract. In Frontiers in Immunology (Vol. 8, Issue NOV, p. 1452). Frontiers Media S.A. https://doi.org/10.3389/fimmu.2017.01452

Cameron, O. G. (2002). Visceral Sensory Neuroscience: Interoception. In Oxford University Press. Oxford University Press.

Cysarz, D., & Büssing, A. (2005). Cardiorespiratory synchronization during Zen meditation. European Journal of Applied Physiology, 95(1), 88–95. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00421-005-1379-3

Greeson, J. M., Zarrin, H., Smoski, M. J., Brantley, J. G., Lynch, T. R., Webber, D. M., Hall, M. H., Suarez, E. C., & Wolever, R. Q. (2018). Mindfulness Meditation Targets Transdiagnostic Symptoms Implicated in Stress-Related Disorders: Understanding Relationships between Changes in Mindfulness, Sleep Quality, and Physical Symptoms. Evidence-Based Complementary and Alternative Medicine, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/4505191

Househam, A. M., Christine, ;, Peterson, T., Mills, P. J., & Chopra, D. (2017). The Effects of Stress and Meditation on the Immune System, Human Microbiota, and Epigenetics.

Jayawardena, R., Ranasinghe, P., Ranawaka, H., Gamage, N., Dissanayake, D., & Misra, A. (2020). Exploring the therapeutic benefits of “Pranayama” (yogic breathing): A systematic review. International Journal of Yoga, 13(2), 99. https://doi.org/10.4103/ijoy.ijoy_37_19

Mccraty, R., Atkinson, M., Tomasino, D., & Bradley, R. T. (2009). The Coherent Heart Heart-Brain Interactions, Psychophysiological Coherence, and the Emergence of System-Wide Order. In REVIEW December (Vol. 5, Issue 2).

Messaoudi, M., Lalonde, R., Violle, N., Javelot, H., Desor, D., Nejdi, A., Bisson, J. F., Rougeot, C., Pichelin, M., Cazaubiel, M., & Cazaubiel, J. M. (2011). Assessment of psychotropic-like properties of a probiotic formulation (Lactobacillus helveticus R0052 and Bifidobacterium longum R0175) in rats and human subjects. British Journal of Nutrition, 105(5), 755–764. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007114510004319

Querstret, D., Morison, L., Dickinson, S., Cropley, M., & John, M. (2020). Mindfulness-based stress reduction and mindfulness-based cognitive therapy for psychological health and well-being in nonclinical samples: A systematic review and meta-analysis. International Journal of Stress Management, 27(4), 394–411. https://doi.org/10.1037/str0000165

Quigley, E. M. M. (2010). Prebiotics and probiotics; modifying and mining the microbiota. In Pharmacological Research (Vol. 61, Issue 3, pp. 213–218). Academic Press. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrs.2010.01.004

Rezzi, S., Ramadan, Z., Martin, F. P. J., Fay, L. B., van Bladeren, P., Lindon, J. C., Nicholson, J. K., & Kochhar, S. (2007). Human metabolic phenotypes link directly to specific dietary preferences in healthy individuals. Journal of Proteome Research, 6(11), 4469–4477. https://doi.org/10.1021/pr070431h

Saxena, T., & Saxena, M. (2009). The effect of various breathing exercises (pranayama) in patients with bronchial asthma of mild to moderate severity. International Journal of Yoga, 2(1), 22. https://doi.org/10.4103/0973-6131.53838

Wielgosz, J., Goldberg, S. B., Kral, T. R. A., Dunne, J. D., & Davidson, R. J. (2019). Mindfulness Meditation and Psychopathology. Annual Review of Clinical Psychology, 15(1), 285–316. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-clinpsy-021815-093423

@ e31e84c4:77bbabc0

Bitcoin and Fixed Income was Written By Wyatt O’Rourke. If you enjoyed this article then support his writing, directly, by donating to his lightning wallet: ultrahusky3@primal.net

Fiduciary duty is the obligation to act in the client’s best interests at all times, prioritizing their needs above the advisor’s own, ensuring honesty, transparency, and avoiding conflicts of interest in all recommendations and actions.

This is something all advisors in the BFAN take very seriously; after all, we are legally required to do so. For the average advisor this is a fairly easy box to check. All you essentially have to do is have someone take a 5-minute risk assessment, fill out an investment policy statement, and then throw them in the proverbial 60/40 portfolio. You have thousands of investment options to choose from and you can reasonably explain how your client is theoretically insulated from any move in the \~markets\~. From the traditional financial advisor perspective, you could justify nearly anything by putting a client into this type of portfolio. All your bases were pretty much covered from return profile, regulatory, compliance, investment options, etc. It was just too easy. It became the household standard and now a meme.

As almost every real bitcoiner knows, the 60/40 portfolio is moving into psyop territory, and many financial advisors get clowned on for defending this relic on bitcoin twitter. I’m going to specifically poke fun at the ‘40’ part of this portfolio.

The ‘40’ represents fixed income, defined as…

An investment type that provides regular, set interest payments, such as bonds or treasury securities, and returns the principal at maturity. It’s generally considered a lower-risk asset class, used to generate stable income and preserve capital.

Historically, this part of the portfolio was meant to weather the volatility in the equity markets and represent the “safe” investments. Typically, some sort of bond.

First and foremost, the fixed income section is most commonly constructed with U.S. Debt. There are a couple main reasons for this. Most financial professionals believe the same fairy tale that U.S. Debt is “risk free” (lol). U.S. debt is also one of the largest and most liquid assets in the market which comes with a lot of benefits.

There are many brilliant bitcoiners in finance and economics that have sounded the alarm on the U.S. debt ticking time bomb. I highly recommend readers explore the work of Greg Foss, Lawrence Lepard, Lyn Alden, and Saifedean Ammous. My very high-level recap of their analysis:

• A bond is a contract in which Party A (the borrower) agrees to repay Party B (the lender) their principal plus interest over time.

• The U.S. government issues bonds (Treasury securities) to finance its operations after tax revenues have been exhausted.

• These are traditionally viewed as “risk-free” due to the government’s historical reliability in repaying its debts and the strength of the U.S. economy

• U.S. bonds are seen as safe because the government has control over the dollar (world reserve asset) and, until recently (20 some odd years), enjoyed broad confidence that it would always honor its debts.

• This perception has contributed to high global demand for U.S. debt but, that is quickly deteriorating.

• The current debt situation raises concerns about sustainability.

• The U.S. has substantial obligations, and without sufficient productivity growth, increasing debt may lead to a cycle where borrowing to cover interest leads to more debt.

• This could result in more reliance on money creation (printing), which can drive inflation and further debt burdens.

In the words of Lyn Alden “Nothing stops this train”

Those obligations are what makes up the 40% of most the fixed income in your portfolio. So essentially you are giving money to one of the worst capital allocators in the world (U.S. Gov’t) and getting paid back with printed money.

As someone who takes their fiduciary responsibility seriously and understands the debt situation we just reviewed, I think it’s borderline negligent to put someone into a classic 60% (equities) / 40% (fixed income) portfolio without serious scrutiny of the client’s financial situation and options available to them. I certainly have my qualms with equities at times, but overall, they are more palatable than the fixed income portion of the portfolio. I don’t like it either, but the money is broken and the unit of account for nearly every equity or fixed income instrument (USD) is fraudulent. It’s a paper mache fade that is quite literally propped up by the money printer.

To briefly be as most charitable as I can – It wasn’t always this way. The U.S. Dollar used to be sound money, we used to have government surplus instead of mathematically certain deficits, The U.S. Federal Government didn’t used to have a money printing addiction, and pre-bitcoin the 60/40 portfolio used to be a quality portfolio management strategy. Those times are gone.

Now the fun part. How does bitcoin fix this?

Bitcoin fixes this indirectly. Understanding investment criteria changes via risk tolerance, age, goals, etc. A client may still have a need for “fixed income” in the most literal definition – Low risk yield. Now you may be thinking that yield is a bad word in bitcoin land, you’re not wrong, so stay with me. Perpetual motion machine crypto yield is fake and largely where many crypto scams originate. However, that doesn’t mean yield in the classic finance sense does not exist in bitcoin, it very literally does. Fortunately for us bitcoiners there are many other smart, driven, and enterprising bitcoiners that understand this problem and are doing something to address it. These individuals are pioneering new possibilities in bitcoin and finance, specifically when it comes to fixed income.

Here are some new developments –

Private Credit Funds – The Build Asset Management Secured Income Fund I is a private credit fund created by Build Asset Management. This fund primarily invests in bitcoin-backed, collateralized business loans originated by Unchained, with a secured structure involving a multi-signature, over-collateralized setup for risk management. Unchained originates loans and sells them to Build, which pools them into the fund, enabling investors to share in the interest income.

Dynamics

• Loan Terms: Unchained issues loans at interest rates around 14%, secured with a 2/3 multi-signature vault backed by a 40% loan-to-value (LTV) ratio.
• Fund Mechanics: Build buys these loans from Unchained, thus providing liquidity to Unchained for further loan originations, while Build manages interest payments to investors in the fund.

Pros

• The fund offers a unique way to earn income via bitcoin-collateralized debt, with protection against rehypothecation and strong security measures, making it attractive for investors seeking exposure to fixed income with bitcoin.

Cons

• The fund is only available to accredited investors, which is a regulatory standard for private credit funds like this.

Corporate Bonds – MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR), a business intelligence company, has leveraged its corporate structure to issue bonds specifically to acquire bitcoin as a reserve asset. This approach allows investors to indirectly gain exposure to bitcoin’s potential upside while receiving interest payments on their bond investments. Some other publicly traded companies have also adopted this strategy, but for the sake of this article we will focus on MSTR as they are the biggest and most vocal issuer.

Dynamics

• Issuance: MicroStrategy has issued senior secured notes in multiple offerings, with terms allowing the company to use the proceeds to purchase bitcoin.

• Interest Rates: The bonds typically carry high-yield interest rates, averaging around 6-8% APR, depending on the specific issuance and market conditions at the time of issuance.

• Maturity: The bonds have varying maturities, with most structured for multi-year terms, offering investors medium-term exposure to bitcoin’s value trajectory through MicroStrategy’s holdings.

Pros

• Indirect Bitcoin exposure with income provides a unique opportunity for investors seeking income from bitcoin-backed debt.

• Bonds issued by MicroStrategy offer relatively high interest rates, appealing for fixed-income investors attracted to the higher risk/reward scenarios.

Cons

• There are credit risks tied to MicroStrategy’s financial health and bitcoin’s performance. A significant drop in bitcoin prices could strain the company’s ability to service debt, increasing credit risk.

• Availability: These bonds are primarily accessible to institutional investors and accredited investors, limiting availability for retail investors.

Interest Payable in Bitcoin – River has introduced an innovative product, bitcoin Interest on Cash, allowing clients to earn interest on their U.S. dollar deposits, with the interest paid in bitcoin.

Dynamics

• Interest Payment: Clients earn an annual interest rate of 3.8% on their cash deposits. The accrued interest is converted to Bitcoin daily and paid out monthly, enabling clients to accumulate Bitcoin over time.

• Security and Accessibility: Cash deposits are insured up to $250,000 through River’s banking partner, Lead Bank, a member of the FDIC. All Bitcoin holdings are maintained in full reserve custody, ensuring that client assets are not lent or leveraged.

Pros

• There are no hidden fees or minimum balance requirements, and clients can withdraw their cash at any time.

• The 3.8% interest rate provides a predictable income stream, akin to traditional fixed-income investments.

Cons

• While the interest rate is fixed, the value of the Bitcoin received as interest can fluctuate, introducing potential variability in the investment’s overall return.

• Interest rate payments are on the lower side

Admittedly, this is a very small list, however, these types of investments are growing more numerous and meaningful. The reality is the existing options aren’t numerous enough to service every client that has a need for fixed income exposure. I challenge advisors to explore innovative options for fixed income exposure outside of sovereign debt, as that is most certainly a road to nowhere. It is my wholehearted belief and call to action that we need more options to help clients across the risk and capital allocation spectrum access a sound money standard.

Additional Resources

• River: The future of saving is here: Earn 3.8% on cash. Paid in Bitcoin.

• Onramp: Bitcoin, The Emergent Asset Class

• MicroStrategy: MicroStrategy Announces Pricing of Offering of Convertible Senior Notes

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Bitcoin and Fixed Income was Written By Wyatt O’Rourke. If you enjoyed this article then support his writing, directly, by donating to his lightning wallet: ultrahusky3@primal.net

@ 0d532801:197a0c30

߹ İnsan, bilinçli olarak günah işlediğinde, aslında birçok içsel ve dışsal faktörün etkisi altındadır. Bu faktörlerin başında bireysel arzular, toplumsal baskılar, zayıflıklar, bilinçaltı dürtüler ve bazen de cehalet gelir. İnsan, sadece dürtülerine göre hareket etmeyi tercih edebilir ya da kısa vadeli tatmin için uzun vadeli sonuçları göz ardı edebilir. Peki, bir insan neden bilerek günah işler? Bu sorunun cevabı, sadece dini ya da etik perspektiflerle değil, psikolojik, toplumsal ve kültürel açılardan da ele alınmalıdır.

1. Bireysel Arzular ve Dürtüler

߹ İnsanın doğasında, zaman zaman nefsini tatmin etme isteği vardır. Bu istek, bazen mantık ve vicdanın önüne geçebilir. İnsan, kısa süreli hazları arzularken, bunun gelecekteki olumsuz sonuçlarını göz ardı edebilir. Örneğin, hırsızlık yapan bir kişi, anlık bir mal edinme arzusuyla hareket edebilir, ancak bu davranışın ona ve çevresine getireceği zararları düşünmektense, elde edeceği çıkarı daha önemli görür. Benzer şekilde, yalan söylemek ya da başkalarını manipüle etmek de kısa vadeli çıkarlar ve bireysel egolar tarafından beslenen bir davranış biçimidir.

1. Toplumsal Baskılar ve Çevresel Faktörler

߹ İnsan, toplumsal bir varlık olarak çevresinden büyük ölçüde etkilenir. Toplumun normları, kültürel değerleri, arkadaş gruplarının etkisi ve ailevi dinamikler, bireyin davranışlarını şekillendirir. Bazı durumlarda, kişi bilerek yanlış bir davranış sergileyebilir çünkü çevresindeki kişiler böyle yapmaktadır ve kendini dışlanmış hissetmemek için buna ayak uydurur. Örneğin, bir grup insanın başka birine kötü davranması ya da yalan söylemesi, bir bireyi de benzer şekilde davranmaya itebilir. Bu durum, bireyin vicdanı ve doğru-yanlış algısı ile çatışan bir durumdur.

1. Zayıflıklar ve İnsan Doğası

߹ Herkesin zayıf anları vardır. Zihinsel ve duygusal olarak zorlandığı anlarda insanlar bazen bilerek yanlış bir şey yapabilir. İnsan, öfke, stres, yalnızlık ya da korku gibi duygusal durumlar içinde daha kolay günah işleyebilir. Duygusal karmaşa, sağlıklı düşünme yeteneğini zayıflatabilir ve kişi, anlık bir rahatlama ya da kaçış için yanlış bir yolu seçebilir. Örneğin, öfkelenen bir kişi, karşısındaki kişiye hakaret etmek ya da ona zarar vermek isteyebilir. Bu tür eylemler, kişinin o anki duygusal durumunun bir sonucu olarak ortaya çıkar.

1. Cehalet ve Yanlış İnançlar

߹ Bazen insanlar, neyin doğru neyin yanlış olduğuna dair doğru bir bilgiye sahip olmayabilirler. Bilgi eksikliği ya da yanlış inanışlar, bireyin günah işlemesine neden olabilir. İnsan, kötü bir davranışın ne kadar zarar verebileceğini ya da o davranışın ahlaki ve dini boyutlarını tam anlamayabilir. Özellikle bazı insanlar, içinde bulundukları ortamın, alışkanlıkların ya da eğitim seviyelerinin etkisiyle, doğruyu ve yanlışı tam kavrayamayabilirler. Bu durum da, onların bilerek ve isteyerek günah işlemesine yol açabilir.

1. İçsel Çatışmalar ve Vicdanın Bastırılması

߹ İnsan, bazen kendi içsel çatışmalarına dayanamayabilir. Vicdanı, doğruyu yapması yönünde onu uyarırken, içindeki kötü duygular ya da arzular ona engel olamayacak kadar güçlü olabilir. İnsanın kendisini haklı çıkarma çabası da burada devreye girebilir. Bir insan, kendini iyi bir insan olarak görmek isterken, bazen içindeki kötü dürtüleri bastırmak yerine, bunları haklı göstermek için kendine çeşitli gerekçeler uydurur. Örneğin, bir kişi başkasının hakkını yemek için kendini “bunu herkes yapıyor” ya da “benim de buna ihtiyacım var” gibi bahanelerle kandırabilir.

1. Dini ve Ahlaki Değerlerin Zayıflaması

߹ Bir insanın dini inançları ya da ahlaki değerleri, doğru-yanlış algısını büyük ölçüde şekillendirir. Ancak zamanla, bireylerin inançları ya da değerleri zayıflayabilir. Toplumda sekülerleşmenin arttığı bir dönemde, dini ve ahlaki öğretiler zamanla insanların gözünde daha az değerli hâle gelebilir. Bu durumda, insanlar günah işleme konusunda daha az vicdan azabı duyarlar, çünkü dini ya da ahlaki sonuçları görmezden gelmeyi tercih edebilirler.

߹ Sonuç olarak, insanın bilerek günah işlemesi, karmaşık bir durumdur ve çok çeşitli faktörlere dayanır. İnsanlar bazen içsel isteklerine, bazen dışsal baskılara, bazen de bilinçli ya da bilinçsiz olarak zayıf noktalarına dayanarak yanlışlar yapabilirler. Önemli olan, insanın yaptığı hataları fark etmesi, bu hatalardan ders alması ve doğru yolu bulmaya çaba göstermesidir. Kişi, hatalarını kabul ederek ve daha bilinçli bir şekilde hareket ederek hem kendisine hem de çevresine faydalı bir yaşam sürebilir.

@ c311a1eb:53fc6542

@florian | Photographer

Studio-Shoot

• photography

• picstr

• grownostr

• artonnostr

“Know thyself” is a phrase attributed to the ancient Greek philosopher Socrates, and it has been a cornerstone of philosophical thought for centuries. It invites an individual to deeply examine their own thoughts, feelings, behaviors, and motivations in order to understand their true nature.

At its core, “Know thyself” encourages self-awareness - an understanding of who you truly are beneath the surface. This process of introspection can uncover your strengths, weaknesses, desires, fears, and values. It invites you to acknowledge your habits, biases, and patterns of thinking, so you can make more conscious choices in life.

Knowing yourself also involves understanding your place in the larger context of existence. It means recognizing how your actions and choices affect others and the world around you. This awareness can lead to greater empathy, a sense of interconnectedness, and a more authentic life, free from the distractions of societal expectations or superficial identities.

In a practical sense, knowing yourself might involve:

Self-reflection: Regularly taking time to reflect on your thoughts, feelings, and experiences.

Mindfulness: Practicing awareness of the present moment and observing your reactions without judgment.

Exploration: Being open to trying new things and learning from both successes and failures.

Seeking truth: Engaging in honest inquiry about your motivations, desires, and beliefs.

Growth: Continuously learning from your past and striving to align your actions with your inner values.

Ultimately, “Know thyself” is about cultivating a deep, honest understanding of who you are, which leads to a more fulfilled, intentional, and peaceful existence.

@ 55e343e6:880acd1b

When we consider the intrinsic value of Bitcoin, we often compare it to traditional currencies like the dollar, euro or other fiat currencies. However, the dollar isn't real in the sense that it's not physical. It's more of an abstract concept backed by government trust rather than tangible assets. Take, for example, valuing a horse in ancient China, where silver was the standard. If we knew how much silver was in a "tael" - an ancient Chinese measure of weight - we could truly grasp the economic value of horse in that era.

Similarly, in ancient Rome around 44 BCE, you might ponder how much a gladiator's armor cost in denarii. What's a denarius? But if we knew how much gold was in a denarius, we'd have a clear measure of its worth.

Both these examples from history illustrate that value was once tied to tangible assets like gold or silver, rather than abstract numbers. Bitcoin's value, therefore, isn't best captured by its price in dollars because dollars aren't physical, they're more like abstract entries in a ledger. Instead, Bitcoin's true "price" should be measured by the physical work, or energy, represented by its hash rate - the computational power used to mine each block. A hash isn't just a digital number; it's a measure of energy consumption, giving us a more concrete indication of Bitcoin's cost in real terms.

At Bitcoin's creation with the genesis block, the hash-to-satoshi ratio was about 1 (0.8 to be precise), highlighting the minimal computational complexity required for early mining.

Now, with mining difficulty at around 109.78 trillion, and having undergone three halvings (2^3 = 8), this ratio has jumped to approximately 702 trillion hashes per satoshi. This is calculated as:

• Current Mining Difficulty x 0.8 (the initial hash rate) x 8 (due to three halvings) = 109.78 trillion x 0.8 x 8 = approximately 702 trillion hashes per satoshi.

This calculation overlooks the additional revenue miners gain from transaction fees, which, while significant, does not drastically alter the fundamental relationship between hashes and satoshis in this simplified model.

Why Hashes Over Dollars?

• Energy as Currency: Just as silver in ancient China or gold in Rome was a measure of wealth due to their scarcity and the effort involved in mining them, Bitcoin's value can be seen through the energy it consumes. Mining Bitcoin means solving complex mathematical problems, requiring vast amounts of energy. This energy use is directly proportional to the number of hashes performed.
• Security and Trust: The hash rate symbolizes the security of the Bitcoin network. The higher the number of hashes needed to mine a block, the more secure the network is against attacks, much like the security derived from the rarity and difficulty of mining gold or silver.
• Decentralization and Proof-of-Work: Unlike the geographical and economic centralization inherent to gold or silver mining, Bitcoin's mining operates on a fundamentally decentralized model, with computational resources distributed globally. Each hash performed in the proof-of-work process reinforces the blockchain's security, ensuring the immutability and trustworthiness of transactions while mitigating the risks of single points of failure or centralized control.
• Inflation and Scarcity: Just as gold or silver's value was influenced by their scarcity during ancient times, Bitcoin's value in hashes reflects its programmed scarcity in the modern digital era. With a cap at 21 million bitcoins, each hash becomes more significant as the network grows, mirroring how each ounce of gold or silver was once precious in ancient economies.

A hash represents a tangible physical process, consuming energy to be generated. Therefore, it's more insightful to express Bitcoin's value in terms of hashes per bitcoin—comparing the computational effort and energy expended in mining to the Bitcoin rewards earned through that process.

While Bitcoin is frequently evaluated in terms of its dollar price, its intrinsic value is more accurately reflected in the metric of hashes per bitcoin. This measure encapsulates the computational effort and energy expenditure required for mining, underscoring Bitcoin's unique nature as a digital asset intrinsically tied to tangible, real, and energy-based costs. By anchoring its valuation to the immutable principles of thermodynamic expenditure, Bitcoin transcends the transient and inflationary characteristics of fiat currency, aligning its worth with the enduring physicality of energy—whether from the labor-intensive extraction of ancient minerals or the vast computational networks powering modern cryptographic systems.

@ 9cb3545c:2ff47bca

Hey there! So you’ve got a whopping 50+ Lightning Channels and you’re not keen on them Force Closing? Well, buckle up! This guide will be an additional resource as you navigate through daunting process.

In this post, we will go over some extra tips and tricks not covered in the official guide. While this guide does have some steps that are not covered by Umbrel, its main objective is to provide confidence in the process (not a replacement process), coming from someone who’s been there and done that, and some how came out with all Lightning Channels still running! I highly recommend reading this post fully before starting the migration process.

Before we dive in, here is the Official Guide from the Umbrel team on how to update UmbrelOS from 0.5.4 to 1.x.x. Reference the steps all the time, and follow them carefully.

With that out of the way. Here are some extra TIPs to fill in some gaps I encountered as I went through the process.

The Order of Steps

Tip #1:

In the Official Umbrel Guide, the Umbrel team asks you to start by backing up your data. As a lightning Node Runner, I recommend against this. Because the Bash script will stop all Umbrel Services and your node will remain offline while you prepare a Bootable USB Stick. So definitely don't start with the backup, first get the bootable stick sorted out, then move on to backups.

Creating the Bootable USB Stick

TIP #2:

After many failed attempts to create a bootable USB stick from the link umbrel provides in their official guide. I ended up getting the ISO directly from Umbrels team through their Discord Channel. Unfortunately, I wont be able to share this link here. but just in case the umbrelOS-amd64-usb-installer.iso.xz didnt work for you as well, this could be an alternative route.

TIP #3:

Since Umbrel is an actual full OS now. You might need to handle some BIOS quirks. The umbrelOS Kernal is not signed. So if you have Secure Boot turned on in the BIOS, your PC will try to protect you, and block you from booting into you USB Stick. Turn off Secure Boot and you should be able to bypass this issue. I also had to turn on Legacy Option ROMs as well.

Tip #4:

Test your Bootable USB Stick on a secondary device before you go on trying to update your node. Since turning the node off and on is a hassle, its just easier to be certain the the Bootable Stick is ready before even attempting to upgrade your node.

If all is good, you are ready to get back to the guide and walk through the steps.

Preparing the Hardware

Tip #5:

In the official guide they as you to connect a Keyboard and Screen. This is of course needed. I would highly suggest you connect a mouse as well. My Bios was very stubborn and didn't comply with just a keyboard as I attempted to re-order Boot Sequences.

The Migration Process

Tip #6:

Remember, this is 10 times easier if you are not running a lightning node, but on a lightning node, the Channel.db file is being updated constantly. Once you start the backup process, the script will shutdown umbrel services and start copying. you can''t turn your node back on after this stage. If you do, assume the backup you created through the Bash script is obsolete. and you will have to redo the backup process again. If you really know what you are doing, you probably can surgically copy/paste the LND folder. But its easier not to do this.

But not to worry, if you start the process just keep going (especially if you checked all the TIPs I cover above). I say this out of experience, because after I started the first backup process, it took me about an hour to backup my SSD, but then the Bootable USB stick threw so many errors I gave up, and turned on the node again. Then later re-attempted the process from scratch. This time, since my external SSD was already full, it took 3.5 hours to backup all the files again.

Tip #7:

This will take time, so just trust the migration process and wait for the files to get copied. you are probably copying more than a terabyte worth of data back and forth over USB, Leverage USB 3 if you have it.

Tip #8:

If you have a custom name for your umbrel node. Meaning you do not access it by using umbrel.local, this will be reset to the default umbrel.local after the migration. I am not sure if this could be switched again to a custom name, but for now, this won't cause any issues.

Tip #9:

During the last steps of the Migration process, and once Umbrel has copied the backup back into the SSD, it will finish the process with downloading your apps, and restarting. Don't freak out :D

Tip #10:

I honestly don't have a tenth tip, but thought it would make this list look nicer with one. So my last tip for you is to relax and enjoy the process. And feel free to tag me if you faced any issues. Hopefully it will be something i experienced and will be able to help.

Have Fun, and Good Luck!

@ badbdda5:8cdc962a

Abstract

In this article, we try to explain how deletion requests on the Nostr work, and how we can probably improve this using filters.

NIP-09: Deletion Request

As you know, we can request the election of an event that we own using a kind 5 event like the below based on nip-09:

json { "kind": 5, "pubkey": "<32-bytes hex-encoded public key of the event creator>", "tags": [ ["e", "dcd59..464a2"], ["e", "968c5..ad7a4"], ["a", "<kind>:<pubkey>:<d-identifier>"], ["k", "1"], ["k", "30023"] ], "content": "these posts were published by accident", // other fields... }

There are 2 important limitations to this model:

1. We can't request a to delete huge amount of events with complex conditions in one request since it would result in an event with a lot of tags which may some relays even reject because of the number of tags. for example, you can think of deleting all of your reactions to the posts of one of your followings.
2. There is no guarantee for a kind 5 request to be executed by all relays and clients since they can keep a copy of events json forever.

Deletion Using Filters

Based on issues that we had with the old model used in nip-09 we tried to find different ways to fix them. Deletion using filter i is a new model that tries to fix the first issue. The third issue is still under research.

Nostr utilizes a query model called filter to query events that can be checked and matched with an event and receive only 2 results that are matched and not matched. So, we can define a structure that can be matched with any number of events.

We define a new tag called filter which contains a stringified Nostr filter. Using this tag, we construct a kind 5 event that requests the deletion of all events matching with that event. Here is an example:

json { "kind": 5, "pubkey": "aca682c51c44c9046461de0cb34bcc6338d5562cdf9062aee9c3ca5a4ca0ab3c", "tags": [ ["filter", "{\n \"authors\": [\"aca682c51c44c9046461de0cb34bcc6338d5562cdf9062aee9c3ca5a4ca0ab3c\"],\n \"kinds\": [7],\n \"#p\": \"aca682c51c44c9046461de0cb34bcc6338d5562cdf9062aee9c3ca5a4ca0ab3c\",\n \"since\": 0,\n \"until\": 2147483647,\n}"] ], "content": "i don't want to be selfish anymore.", // other fields... }

In this example, aca682c51c44c9046461de0cb34bcc6338d5562cdf9062aee9c3ca5a4ca0ab3c public key requests to delete all of their reactions on their on events.

Or using the example below, you can request account deletion:

json { "kind": 5, "pubkey": "aca682c51c44c9046461de0cb34bcc6338d5562cdf9062aee9c3ca5a4ca0ab3c", "tags": [ ["filter", "{\n \"authors\": [\"aca682c51c44c9046461de0cb34bcc6338d5562cdf9062aee9c3ca5a4ca0ab3c\"],\n}"] ], "content": "use my new pubkey: cc6...a0a.", // other fields... }

Filter Limitations and Details

Here is a list of limitations and considerations for those who are using the filter tag on kind 5:

1. authors: This field must be implicit and it MUST always contain one pubkey which is the pubkey of the deletion author. Some relays MAY accept multiple pubkeys from moderators events. (but it's RECOMMENDED for it to be applied from nip-86 management API, gRPC API, or anything used for managing relay.)

2. limit: This field MUST be ignored since the limit selection can be different in the relay/client internal system.

3. search: A relay MAY support NIP-50 search for this purpose.

4. until/since: These fields would be used instead of the event created_at for time. But relay MAY follow any of the below behaviors: 4.1. They only let pubkeys request the deletion of old events, not future events and consider the since field. 4.2 They MAY keep a list of deleted filters in a hashmap with pubkey as the key to check any incoming event with the filter and they can drop the filer once we pass the until. this would be an expensive action to accept kind 5 from all pubkeys, relays MAY charge some fee or require some amount of work to accept kind 5 in this case.

Thanks mike@mikedilger.com for sharing his ideas on this PR.

Uses cases

Here is a small list of use cases for this model:

1. Account Deletion Request: a pubkey can request for deletion of their account.

2. Bulk Remove: Chat clients for example can support the selection of multiple messages and requests for deletion.

3. Force Limit: The Relays that keep the filter using the until field can be used by a pubkey to force the relay to not accept a specific event matching that filter for a specific time.

Final Words

This standard is currently in beta version, not merged in the nips repo, and it is implemented and supported in the Immortal relay.

1. Open PR on NIPs.
2. Example implementation in Golang.

@ fe02e8ec:f07fbe0b

Warum Trump?

Die hierzulande völlig falsch vorhergesagten Ergebnisse bei der US-Wahl sowie die Regierungskrise in Deutschland stellt viele Menschen vor die Frage: wohin bewegen wir uns, was ist auf dieser Welt eigentlich los? Die Medien verlieren in nie gekanntem Ausmaß an Vertrauen und auch die Politiker können den Bürgern die Welt nicht mehr erklären, geschweige denn glaubhafte Lösungen aufzeigen. Wie konnte es so weit kommen? Und wie kommen wir wieder dazu, miteinander zu reden und um Lösungen zu ringen anstatt die jeweils andere Seite zu verleumden und zu diskreditieren?

Dieser Artikel beleuchtet die Situation aus der Perspektive von Werteebenen und Weltbildern. Ganz entscheidend dafür sind die Biografie und das Wertesystem der Menschen. Der amerikanische Wissenschaftler Clare Graves hat in den 80er Jahren diese unterschiedlichen Ebenen erstmals beschrieben und ein Modell dazu entwickelt (‹Spiral Dynamics›, auch Bestandteil der Integralen Theorie von Ken Wilber). Das Modell beschreibt, wie sich Menschen und Gesellschaften im Lauf ihrer Entwicklung auf unterschiedlichen Werteebenen bewegen und wie eine Gruppe die andere kaum verstehen kann. Und hier liegt die Problematik unserer Gesellschaften: in den USA (ebenso wie in Europa) haben wir es parallel mit drei sehr unterschiedlichen Wertesystemen und Weltbildern zu tun, die sich heute immer stärker voneinander abgrenzen.

Die aktuell erlebten drei Ebenen sind (in knapper Darstellung):

Die Ebene ‹Ordnung, Recht und Gesetz›: Das Wichtigste ist, dass das Zusammenleben der Menschen durch einen klaren Ordnungsrahmen bestimmt wird. Fehlverhalten wird konsequent geahndet. Der Einzelne fühlt sich sicher, gemeinsam ist man stark. Die Freiheit des Einzelnen ist innerhalb des Rahmens von Gesetz und Ordnung garantiert. Das gemeinsam Erreichte ist wichtiger als das unbekannte Neue. Religion und Tradition spielen eine wichtige Rolle (politisch: rechts-konservativ).

Die Ebene ‹anything goes›: Jeder ist seines Glückes Schmied, jeder kann erfolgreich sein, wenn er sich nur genügend anstrengt. Wettbewerb zwischen Menschen und Unternehmen prägt Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft; persönlicher Erfolg, Effizienz und Leistung sind treibende Kräfte, Selbstoptimierung wird zur Pflichtübung für viele. Technische Erfindungen erleichtern und verändern unser Leben, wirken sich aber auch auf das Ökosystem und den Planten aus. Religion und Tradition werden zu Gunsten der Wissenschaft getauscht (politisch: (neo-)liberal)

Die Ebene des ‹Pluralismus›: Jeder und alles wird akzeptiert und hat ein Recht darauf, sein ‹Ding› zu leben. Der Einzelne übernimmt größere Verantwortung für sein Tun im Hinblick auf die Umwelt, Randgruppen, Ethik. Konsens geht vor Diskurs, Gefühle sind wichtiger als Rationalität. Gesetze und Struktur (z. B. Ländergrenzen) sind ‹old school›, denn keiner möchte sich etwas vorschreiben lassen und wenn alle Menschen gleich sind, so braucht es keine Länder mehr. Es gibt keine absolute Wahrheit, jeder hat mit seiner eigenen (gefühlten) Wahrheit grundsätzlich recht. Man erlebt sich als moralisch höherstehend, Political Correctness oder Wokeness werden zu einer Art Religion (politisch: links-grün, Identitätspolitik).

(Durch die Zuwanderung existieren noch weitere Ebenen, vor allem die Stammesebene mit dem Wert der Ehre an oberster Stelle, doch dies wird hier nicht weiter ausgeführt).

So lange keine Existenzängste, keine Bedrohung von innen oder außen und keine größere Krise drohten konnten diese Ebenen zumeist gut nebeneinander existieren. Heute allerdings, da die scheinbaren und realen Bedrohungsszenarien permanent wachsen, prallen die unterschiedlichen Werte bei Wahlen, Parteiprogrammen und in den Medien mit Wucht aufeinander. Verstärkt wird die Problematik dadurch, dass sich die Anhänger des Pluralismus auf einer höheren moralischen Ebene wähnen, was sie scheinbar berechtigt, mit den anderen jeden Dialog verweigern. Hierbei erleben wir einen fundamentalen Widerspruch, denn während die Ebene des Pluralismus einerseits behauptet, dass es keine absoluten Wahrheiten gibt, halten sie gleichzeitig ihr eigenes Weltbild und ihre Werte für unumstößlich wahr. Dieser Widerspruch wird allerdings nicht bemerkt und macht Diskussionen deshalb umso schwieriger bis unmöglich. Während vor gut 100 Jahren die Verantwortungsmoral wesentlich höher gewichtet wurde als die Gesinnungsmoral hat sich dieses Verhältnis heute radikal verkehrt.

Der US-Wahlkampf seitens der ‹Demokraten› hat auch gezeigt, wie Menschen mit anderen Werten von den sogenannten Eliten verachtet werden. Sie wurden als Abgehängte, **‹**Basket of deplorables› (Hillary Clinton) oder ‹Müll› (Biden) bezeichnet. Dabei sind es genau diese Menschen, die durch ihre Arbeit die Versorgung des Landes sicherstellen. Trump hat die unnachahmliche Fähigkeit, diese Menschen anzusprechen und ihnen ein Gefühl der Akzeptanz und Wertschätzung zu geben, obwohl er Milliardär ist. Gerade bei jungen Männern konnte er punkten, da diese die permanenten Beleidigungen durch die Woken (‹toxische› Männlichkeit) und deren Umerziehungsversuche leid sind.

Das Modell der Werteebenen, Spiral Dynamics, kennt allerdings noch eine weitere Entwicklung, die Integrale Ebene, die auch in der Integralen Theorie von Ken Wilber eine bedeutsame Rolle spielt. Sie ist diejenige Ebene, der es gelingt, die jeweilige Berechtigung der anderen Ebenen zu erkennen. So ist ‹Ordnung, Recht und Gesetz› dafür zuständig, das Bedürfnis der Menschen nach Sicherheit zu erfüllen. Sicherheit, genug zu essen zu haben, ein Dach über dem Kopf, eine verfügbare und bezahlbare Gesundheitsversorgung und natürlich körperliche Sicherheit, d. h. möglichst keinen Angriffen ausgesetzt zu werden. Die Ebene ‹anything goes› erfüllt das Bedürfnis nach Individualität, nach persönlicher Freiheit, nach Unabhängigkeit von Institutionen und kirchlichen Vorschriften. Sie ermöglichte die großen Erfindungen, das enorme Wachstum des Wohlstands, aber auch der Ausbeutung des Planeten. Der Pluralismus erfüllt unser Bedürfnis nach Kooperation, nach größerer Verantwortung für Natur und Umwelt sowie nach Gleichberechtigung (nicht: Gleichstellung).

Problematisch dabei ist, dass jede Ebene die anderen ablehnt, entweder, weil sie nicht verstanden oder für bereits überwunden gehalten werden. Dabei hat jede – wie beschrieben – ihre Berechtigung. Erst die Integrale Ebene erkennt dies und kann die jeweiligen Werte wertschätzen. Dazu kommt, dass sich hier eine neue Spiritualität entwickeln kann, die ein Bewusstseinswachstum mit sich bringt. Weg von den institutionalisierten Kirchen, hin zu einer individuellen Suche und Erkenntnis. Denn gerade die anything-goes-Ebene hat mit ihrem Konzept von Wissenschaft den GEIST aus der Materie verbannt, was letztlich auch zu dem überbordenden Materialismus geführt hat, den wir seit den 60er-Jahren beobachten können.

Spiral Dynamics beschreibt diese Werteebenen als Antworten von Gesellschaften auf die herrschenden Umweltbedingungen. Während der überwiegenden Zeit der Menschheitsgeschichte waren Gesellschaften hinsichtlich ihrer Werte homogen. Der Übergang von einer zur anderen Ebene dauerte mehrere Generationen. Heute haben wir erstmals in der Geschichte die Situation, dass drei und mehr Ebenen gleichzeitig innerhalb einer Gesellschaft existieren. Dies erklärt anschaulich, woher das fundamentale Nichtverstehen ganzer Bevölkerungsgruppen herrührt. Der Übergang von einer Ebene zur nächsten kann nicht erzwungen werden, er erfolgt auf Grund der persönlichen Lebensumgebung. Das erklärt zum Beispiel die Unterschiede zwischen Stadt und Land, zwischen den Generationen oder Studenten aus bestimmten Fachrichtungen verglichen mit Menschen aus produzierenden Berufen. Dazu kommt, dass niemand ausschließlich in einer einzigen Werteeben zuhause ist, vielmehr gibt es Überschneidungen. Kommt es jedoch zu kritischen Situationen, so sucht man diejenige Ebene auf, die die größte Sicherheit verspricht.

In der Politik kommt noch eine besondere Zutat hinzu: der unbedingte Wille zur Macht. Das Ergebnis ist eine fundamentale Spaltung der Gesellschaft, wie in den USA zwischen Trump- und Harris-Anhängern zu beobachten oder in Deutschland, Österreich, Frankreich, Holland u. a. Ländern zwischen Anhängern linker und rechter Parteien. Die Anhänger des anderen Lagers sind dann wahlweise gefährliche Idioten, linksgrün versifft, Populisten, Rassisten oder gleich Nazis.

Der Spaltpilz besteht aus dem Unverständnis (und der Nicht-Akzeptanz) für andere Menschen und deren Weltverständnis, gepaart mit dem Machtwillen der Politiker.

Problematisch im ‹Wertewesten› ist fast überall die mediale Berichterstattung, die das Werteverständnis von deutlich weniger als 50% der Bevölkerung zur Grundlage hat, da sie primär durch Menschen erfolgt, die sich als Pluralisten sehen (politisch links-grün). Statt möglichst objektiv zu berichten haben sie den Anspruch, auf den anderen, größeren Teil der Bevölkerung erzieherisch einzuwirken. Doch die großen Medienhäuser sind heute keine Gatekeeper mehr. Schon seit Jahren haben sie nicht mehr die Hoheit darüber, was die Menschen in welcher Form und mit welcher Interpretation erfahren sollen. Das Internet hat hier etwas fundamental Neues bewirkt: die Empfänger konnten erstmals zu Sendern werden! Einzelne (Joe Rogan, Tucker Carlson), Gruppen, alternative Medien bauten sich Reichweiten auf, mit welchen sie zu den Etablierten direkt in Wettbewerb treten. Und oft sogar eine höhere Glaubwürdigkeit genießen.

Damit ist erstmals seit Menschengedenken das Meinungs- und Interpretationsmonopol der Mächtigen in großem Stil durchbrochen. Die Angst der Eliten kann man täglich beobachten, wenn die neu geschaffenen Zensurgesetze gegen unliebsame Meinungen zum Einsatz kommen (Digital Service Act). Hier spielt die EU eine Vorreiterrolle und Deutschland meldet mit Abstand die meisten Fälle von ‹Hass und Hetze› an die Meldestellen. Dies wird noch viel massivere Formen annehmen, siehe die EU-Gesetzgebung, die ‹Trusted Flagger› oder zum Beispiel die Verhaftung des telegram Gründers Pavel Durov zur Erpressung der Zusammenarbeit. Eine Gegenbewegung im Sinne freier Meinungsäußerung stellt dagegen X.com (twitter) dar, weshalb Elon Musk für einige nun zum Staatsfeind Nr. 2 (nach Trump) ‹aufstieg›, s. Spiegel. Der Wahlausgang in den USA gibt Anlass zur Hoffnung, dass die Zensurpolitik künftig nicht weiter verschärft werden wird.

Die Menschen wehren sich

Die größten politischen Schockereignisse im letzten Jahrzehnt waren die Wahl Trumps 2016 und nun erneut 2024 sowie der Brexit (Abstimmung 2016). Wie konnte es dazu kommen, obwohl nach übereinstimmenden Analysen 90% der Medien für die Gegenseite geschrieben und gesendet hatten? Die hier beschriebenen Zusammenhänge machen klar, dass ein immer größer werdender Teil der Bevölkerung Medien und Politik von ihrer Lebenswirklichkeit abgekoppelt erleben, deren Ziele kaum noch Gemeinsamkeiten haben mit den Bedürfnissen großer Teile der Gesellschaft. Eine bittere Desillusionierung ist die Folge: die Erkenntnis, dass die Demokratie aufgehört hat zu funktionieren und durch eine Oligarchie abgelöst wurde (laut Studie der Princeton University für die USA). Die immer größere Schere zwischen den superreichen 0,1 Prozent und dem Rest vertiefen bei den Wählern den Graben zu ‹denen in Washington› oder ‹denen in Berlin›. Und deshalb entschieden sich nun in den USA zig Millionen Menschen dafür, auf keinen Fall ein ‹Weiter-so‹ zu wählen. Und Trump war damals geschickt und ist es heute wieder: er verspricht Stärke, Sicherheit, ‹Make America great again›. Also Werte aus der Ebene ‹Ordnung, Recht und Gesetz›: wirtschaftlichen Aufschwung, weniger Immigranten, das Recht auf Waffenbesitz. Aber auch Menschen, die ihre Individualität schätzen wählten Trump, denn er verspricht – zusammen mit Elon Musk – weniger Zensur, technische Innovationen, volle Akzeptanz von Bitcoin. Werte aus der Ebene ‹anything-goes›. Damit erreicht er die Mehrheit der Menschen aus zwei Ebenen, während Harris mit den Schwerpunkten Identitätspolitik, Weiter-so und Wokismus nur eine der drei Ebenen erreichen konnte.

Und in Deutschland?

In Deutschland existieren ebenfalls die beschriebenen drei Werteebenen. Und gleichzeitig gibt es große Unterschiede zu den USA. Das Nummer-eins-Ziel der USA ist es die größte Nation der Welt zu sein und damit implizit alles zu tun, um diesen Status aufrecht zu erhalten. Das betrifft die Geopolitik, das Militär, das Finanzwesen, die Kulturproduktion, die Digitalindustrie, die Medien. Das ist so ziemlich das Gegenteil deutschen innen- und außenpolitischen Verständnisses. Und wo in den USA das Prinzip des ‹the winner gets it all› dominiert, gab es in Deutschland lange Zeit die weitgehend gut funktionierende Soziale Markwirtschaft. Ein weiterer großer Unterschied: während in den USA lange Zeit die Linken die Erzfeinde der Nation waren („alles Kommunisten“) und es nach rechts kaum Grenzen gibt ist es in Deutschland exakt umgekehrt. Durch Instrumentalisierung der historischen Schuld wird alles, was nur im Entferntesten als national bezeichnet werden könnte, in die Verdammnis rechts=Nazi geworfen. Damit wird nationales Eigeninteresse, das für jede Regierung handlungsleitend sein sollte, in die no-go Area verschoben!

Diese politische No-go Area in Deutschland liegt nun aber genau in den Werteebenen großer Bevölkerungsteile. Und hier zeigt sich die aktuelle Problematik: Statt dass verschiedene politische Richtungen im echten Diskurs um die beste Lösung feilschen, besteht die Taktik ausschließlich darin, das verminte Gebiet des Nicht-Diskutierbaren (Overton Window) immer weiter auszudehnen. Kampfbegriffe wie**** Populisten, ‹Rechte› (was ja eine weit verbreitete**** und notwendige politische Richtung darstellt, jedenfalls in allen anderen demokratischen Ländern) oder sogar ‹Nazi› führen dazu, dass kein einziges Thema – und sei es noch so wichtig – auf der Sachebene diskutiert werden kann.

Die Betrachtung der Werteebenen stellt natürlich nur einen Ausschnitt dar aus der komplexen gesellschaftlichen und politischen Realität. Dennoch vermag sie zu mehr Verständnis der aktuellen Verhältnisse verhelfen. Was hier nicht betrachtet wurde ist die Ausbeutung der Bedürfnisse von Menschen speziell aus der Gruppe Pluralismus. Ihr Wunsch nach Gleichberechtigung und Schutz von Umwelt und Klima wird von sehr mächtigen Gruppen und Personen dazu missbraucht, bestimmte Themen voranzutreiben (Abschaffung von: Nationen, Geschlechtsidentität, Heimatbezug, gemeinsamer Kultur u. a.), unter Einsatz extremer Manipulationstechniken. Dazu mehr in einem eigenen Beitrag.

Die Wahl Trumps wird die Deutungshoheit der Staats- und Konzernmedien weiter schwächen. In den USA vertrauen ihnen weniger als 30% der Menschen, in Deutschland noch immerhin knapp die Hälfte. Doch was hilft uns diese Erkenntnis? Viel interessanter ist die Frage, was jeder einzelne tun kann in dieser verfahrenen Situation. Wie können wir daran mitwirken, dass die Gräben nicht tiefer, die Verachtung für die jeweils andere Seite nicht größer wird?

Dieser Beitrag erschien ebenfalls bei Radio München >> hier anhören

Oder direkt hier:

https://soundcloud.com/radiomuenchen/werte-warum-trump-von-thomas-eisinger

@ c311a1eb:53fc6542

• Stop worrying too much about what may come in the future or what has happened in the past.

• Our seconds tick by too fast to waste on things you can't change or control.

• Just let it be. Take a deep breath, be in the moment, and just be thankful for where you're at right now.

• The present is all we really have. Forget about the 'what ifs' and the 'should/could-haves.' Accept what was and what is.

• Remember, you've got one life, one opportunity to live.

• Don't let it slip away while you focus on the wrong things. Breathe in. Breathe out. Make every moment count.

---

Thanks for Reading

@ 16d11430:61640947

The Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) is a cornerstone of modern financial theory. It suggests that markets are so good at processing information that asset prices reflect all available data at any given moment. According to this theory, it is nearly impossible to consistently "beat the market" through strategies based on publicly available information, as the market price already incorporates it.

The EMH can be categorized into three levels of efficiency:

1. Weak Form Efficiency: Prices reflect all historical price and volume data.

2. Semi-Strong Form Efficiency: Prices reflect all publicly available information, such as news, earnings, and economic data.

3. Strong Form Efficiency: Prices reflect all information, both public and private, including insider knowledge.

While there is ongoing debate about the extent to which markets are truly efficient, the EMH helps explain how financial systems evolve to allocate resources toward the most efficient and reliable assets.

---

What Does Efficiency Mean for Markets?

In practical terms, efficiency means that markets naturally favor assets that perform the job of "money" or "store of value" better than alternatives. An efficient market rewards assets that are:

Reliable: Stable in terms of supply and value over time.

Accessible: Easily transferred and exchanged with minimal friction.

Secure: Resistant to loss or manipulation.

Predictable: Free from arbitrary external interference or inflationary policies.

When applied to money and investments, market efficiency drives a gradual move toward assets that better fulfill these criteria. This is where Bitcoin enters the picture.

---

Why Bitcoin Fits the Criteria for Efficiency

Bitcoin is fundamentally different from fiat currencies like dollars, euros, or yen. It is not controlled by any central authority, government, or corporation. Instead, it operates on a decentralized, transparent network governed by unchangeable rules coded into its system. This unique setup gives Bitcoin characteristics that align strongly with market efficiency:

1. Fixed Supply and Predictability

Unlike fiat currencies, which can be printed in unlimited quantities by central banks, Bitcoin has a hard cap of 21 million coins. This makes it immune to inflation caused by excessive money printing—a common issue with fiat currencies. Markets tend to favor assets with predictable supply, as it allows for better long-term planning and investment.

1. Global Accessibility

Bitcoin can be sent and received anywhere in the world without relying on banks or financial intermediaries. This level of accessibility makes it far more efficient than traditional systems, where cross-border transactions often involve delays, fees, and exchange rate fluctuations.

1. Security and Decentralization

Bitcoin's decentralized network ensures that no single entity can control or manipulate it. Transactions are verified by a global network of computers, making it one of the most secure financial systems ever created. This resilience appeals to markets looking for stability and reliability.

1. Efficiency in Value Transfer

Traditional financial systems rely on a chain of intermediaries, each adding costs and delays to transactions. Bitcoin operates on a peer-to-peer basis, allowing value to be transferred directly between parties with minimal fees and no intermediaries. Over time, this efficiency reduces friction in the global economy.

---

Why Markets May Gravitate Toward Bitcoin

If markets are truly efficient, they will naturally gravitate toward assets that best serve the needs of participants. Bitcoin's unique combination of scarcity, security, accessibility, and efficiency positions it as a strong contender for this role. Here’s why:

1. Store of Value: Just as gold has historically been a trusted store of value due to its scarcity, Bitcoin offers a digital alternative with even greater predictability and portability.

2. Hedge Against Inflation: With central banks around the world printing money at unprecedented rates, Bitcoin provides a way to protect wealth from the erosion of purchasing power caused by inflation.

3. Global Asset: Bitcoin is not tied to any specific country or economy. It functions as a truly global asset, making it an attractive option in an increasingly interconnected world.

---

A Transition, Not a Revolution

For those accustomed to fiat currencies, the idea of Bitcoin replacing traditional money may seem far-fetched. But history shows that markets evolve over time to adopt superior systems. Gold gave way to fiat currencies as global economies expanded and required more flexibility. Bitcoin, in turn, offers a solution for the digital age—a system that combines the best properties of money with the efficiencies of modern technology.

This doesn't mean Bitcoin will replace fiat overnight. Instead, it suggests that over time, markets will allocate more resources toward Bitcoin as its advantages become clearer. As more individuals and institutions adopt it, Bitcoin's role in the financial system will grow, reflecting its status as an efficient and reliable asset.

---

Conclusion: Bitcoin and Market Efficiency

The Efficient Markets Hypothesis tells us that markets are driven by information and efficiency. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply, decentralization, and global accessibility, embodies these principles better than traditional fiat systems. While the journey toward widespread adoption may take time, the market’s natural inclination toward efficiency suggests that Bitcoin could play an increasingly central role in the global economy. It’s not just a technological innovation—it’s a reflection of what happens when markets seek the most efficient tools to meet their needs.