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@ e5de992e:4a95ef85
2025-02-25 12:46:53
The future of decentralized identity promises a digital landscape where users have full control over their personal data, privacy, and interactions. When users own their digital presence, several transformative changes could reshape the internet:
---
## Empowerment and Control
### Self-Sovereignty
Users will manage their identities through cryptographic keys rather than relying on third-party platforms. This means you decide what data to share, how to share it, and with whom, eliminating reliance on centralized authorities.
### Data Portability
Decentralized identity frameworks enable seamless movement of personal data across various services. Without vendor lock-in, you can maintain a consistent digital persona, regardless of the platform or application you choose to use.
---
## Privacy and Security
### Enhanced Privacy
With decentralized identity, you control the amount and type of information you reveal. This minimizes exposure to data breaches, unauthorized surveillance, and privacy violations that are common in centralized systems.
### Stronger Security
Cryptography plays a central role in decentralized identity, reducing the risk of identity theft and fraud. Since your identity is not stored in a single, vulnerable location, it's much harder for attackers to compromise your personal information.
---
## Interoperability and Innovation
### Interoperable Ecosystems
Decentralized identity standards can pave the way for interoperable systems where different services and platforms recognize and trust your digital credentials. This can lead to smoother user experiences and increased innovation in digital services.
### New Economic Models
Ownership of your digital identity might also enable new ways to monetize personal data. Instead of platforms harvesting data for profit, users could potentially control and even earn from the use of their own information.
---
## Social and Cultural Impact
### Democratizing the Digital Space
A user-owned digital identity reduces the power imbalance between large tech corporations and individuals. It fosters a more democratic online environment where freedom of expression and personal autonomy are respected.
### Resilience Against Censorship
Decentralized systems distribute data across multiple nodes, making it far more resistant to censorship. This ensures that your voice can be heard even in environments where centralized platforms might suppress it.
---
## Challenges Ahead
### Usability and Adoption
While the potential benefits are significant, mainstream adoption will require overcoming technical and usability challenges. Managing cryptographic keys, for instance, may be daunting for non-technical users unless user-friendly solutions are developed.
### Regulatory and Standardization Issues
As decentralized identity becomes more prevalent, there will be a need for clear standards and regulations to ensure interoperability, security, and consumer protection without stifling innovation.
---
## In Summary
When users own their digital presence, the future of decentralized identity is marked by increased privacy, enhanced control, and a more open, interoperable digital ecosystem. This shift not only empowers individuals but also encourages the development of innovative technologies and business models that prioritize user rights and freedoms in the online world.
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@ 57d1a264:69f1fee1
2025-02-25 12:38:46
I've been pondering how LSPs (lightning service providers) might pan out over time and how that might affect fees, and I am wondering what everyone else is thinking. Some people will always prefer to manage their own channels, and for some specific use cases, that might be preferable. But I am thinking about the broad userbase that does not want to do that. We will need a massive LSP infrastructure to onboard people and to enable insane amounts of payments.
LSPs will need to efficiently open and adjust channels for users, using their own liquidity or sourcing liquidity from other providers, using just-in-time channels, batching and/or splicing to reduce costs and wait times. Across all this, along with facilitating payments, they need to make their business model work and offer different options for users to pay for their services.
Users might be able to:
1. Pay-as-you-go (pay X for Y more liquidity for Z amount of time)
2. Pay X per month for Y inbound liquidity
3. Pay X per month for unlimited liquidity
4. Nothing for liquidity, but higher transaction fees
A wallet might also automatically choose an appropriate LSP based on what is the best and most appropriate deal at the time.
Let's look at user scenarios:
- If someone sends and receives the same amount every month, they will never need more liquidity. They just draw down the same channel and fill it up again. So they would only pay the LSP for them assigning that fixed amount of liquidity to them. Maybe options 1 and 2 are good for them.
- If someone receives more than they send (they save a certain amount every month), they will need more and more inbound liquidity over time. They might choose option 2.
- An online store that receives a ton and can't really estimate how much, might go for option 3.
- For option 4, it depends if the higher transaction fees are fixed or percentage-based.
It's a bit like choosing a data plan for your phone (or for internet at home). You can get a prepaid card, a regular plan with certain limits, or go unlimited. And there are separate plans for small and large businesses, etc. And there are massive amounts of complex infrastructure behind these service providers to make it all work.
So when someone starts using a lightning wallet, maybe they have to first pick an LSP and a plan before being able to receive. Or maybe they get a first channel for free and pay higher fees, and are then prompted to choose a plan. Maybe they need to wait an hour until the LSP has enough channel opens for a batch/splice, to reduce costs. A complex market at work.
Is that how things might pan out? Am I completely off? Is it worth mocking up different scenarios?
```
#bitcoin #LN #BTC #Lightning #LSP #service #zaps #sats #wallet
```
originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/896520
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@ f4c59e4c:82f66850
2025-02-25 12:14:45
## Introduction
Dora Factory actively participated in governance across multiple blockchain ecosystems, including Cosmos Hub, dYdX, Injective, and Osmosis, by casting votes on key proposals. These decisions reflect Dora Factory’s commitment to supporting network upgrades, optimizing infrastructure, and ensuring responsible treasury and market management. Below is a summary of recent governance actions.
---
## Proposals
### Cosmos Hub
[2025-02-14 Cosmos Proposal 988 Yes](https://www.mintscan.io/cosmos/proposals/988)
Dora Factory voted YES on Cosmos Proposal 987 to approve the Gaia v22 software upgrade. The upgrade includes updates to the Cosmos Hub binary and has been tested by Informal Systems and Hypha Co-op.
### dYdX
[2025-02-04 dYdX Proposal 208 Yes](https://www.mintscan.io/dydx/proposals/208)
Dora Factory voted YES on dYdX Proposal 208 to add the dYdX Operations subDAO (DOS) signer as a market authority in the market map module and remove the 10% revenue share. This change allows DOS to update the market map while ensuring no fees accrue to Market Mappers, aligning with the community’s interests.
[2025-02-08 dYdX Proposal 210 No](https://www.mintscan.io/dydx/proposals/210)
Dora Factory voted NO on dYdX Proposal 210, which aimed to revive the dYdX client to Sifchain. The proposal was flagged as suspicious due to false claims of support from Informal Systems, lack of prior discussion, and potential security implications for dYdX Chain.
[2025-02-10 dYdX Proposal 211 Yes](https://www.mintscan.io/dydx/proposals/211)
Dora Factory voted YES on dYdX Proposal 211, which recalls the Stride Liquid Staking Program. The proposal transfers control of stDYDX from the dYdX Community Treasury to the dYdX Treasury SubDAO, allowing it to redeem and manage the assets directly.
### Injective
[2025-01-29 Injective Proposal 490 Yes](https://www.mintscan.io/injective/proposals/490)
Dora Factory voted YES on Injective Proposal 490, which aimed to recover the IBC client for Kopi chain.
[2025-02-03 Injective Proposal 491 Yes](https://www.mintscan.io/injective/proposals/491)
Dora Factory voted YES on Injective Proposal 491, which aimed to increase the maximum gas amount per block to 150,000,000 to optimize on-chain transaction handling
[2025-02-06 Injective Proposal 493 Abstain](https://www.mintscan.io/injective/proposals/493)
Dora Factory ABSTAINED on Injective Proposal 493, which aimed to launch an on-chain S&P 500 Index market by introducing the SPY/USDT perpetual market across Injective Exchange dApps.
[2025-02-12 Injective Proposal 494 Yes](https://www.mintscan.io/injective/proposals/494)
Dora Factory voted YES on Injective Proposal 494, which proposed the Nivara mainnet upgrade. The upgrade includes enhancements to the RWA oracle and module architecture, improved delegation controls, and security updates for the exchange module and Injective Bridge.
[2025-02-12 Injective Proposal 495 Yes](https://www.mintscan.io/injective/proposals/495)
Dora Factory voted YES on Injective Proposal 495, which aimed to recover the IBC client used by the Kopi chain. The proposal passed with significant support.
[2025-02-12 Injective Proposal 496 Yes](https://www.mintscan.io/injective/proposals/496)
Dora Factory voted YES on Injective Proposal 496, which aimed to modify the ticker for the TRADFI/USDT PERP market to reflect the appropriate ticker.
[2025-02-20 Injective Proposal 498 Yes](https://www.mintscan.io/injective/proposals/498)
Dora Factory VOTED YES on Injective Proposal 498, which aims to launch the JNI/HDRO Spot Market for trading the JNI token in HDRO-denominated quote.
### Osmosis
[2025-01-29 Osmosis Proposal 897 Yes](https://www.mintscan.io/osmosis/proposals/897)
Dora Factory voted YES on Osmosis Proposal 897, which aimed to recover the IBC client used by the Kopi chain.
[2025-02-04 Osmosis Proposal 898 Yes](https://www.mintscan.io/osmosis/proposals/898)
Dora Factory voted YES on Osmosis Proposal 898, which aimed to reduce gas consumption for Mars contracts by pinning binary contracts and reducing resource usage.
[2025-02-04 Osmosis Proposal 899 Yes](https://www.mintscan.io/osmosis/proposals/899)
Dora Factory voted YES on Osmosis Proposal 899, which aimed to increase the static limits for Alloyed BTC during its rapid growth phase.
[2025-02-04 Osmosis Proposal 900 Yes](https://www.mintscan.io/osmosis/proposals/900)
Dora Factory voted YES on Osmosis Proposal 900, which requested $150,000 USDC from the Osmosis community pool to bootstrap DOGE liquidity by purchasing DOGE and adding it to a DOGE/USDC liquidity pool on Osmosis.
[2025-02-07 Osmosis Proposal 901 Yes](https://www.mintscan.io/osmosis/proposals/901)
Dora Factory voted YES on Osmosis Proposal 901, which authorized the purchase of BTC using 25% of Osmosis' non-OSMO taker fees. The January 2025 purchase was expected to be around 1.4 BTC.
---
## Conclusion
Dora Factory’s recent votes demonstrate a strong focus on enhancing blockchain infrastructure, optimizing network efficiency, and ensuring responsible asset management. By supporting essential upgrades, market optimizations, and community-driven initiatives, Dora Factory continues to contribute to the long-term sustainability and innovation of these ecosystems.
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@ bc575705:dba3ed39
2025-02-25 11:07:17
Perfection is often held as the ultimate goal in many creative pursuits. But in music—particularly in the world of lo-fi and experimental genres—imperfections can be a source of magic. As a producer and artist, I’ve come to embrace the raw, unpolished elements in my compositions, finding that they add depth, character, and emotional resonance. In this post, I want to reflect on why imperfections are not just acceptable but essential to my music.
## **The Beauty of Imperfections**
Imperfections in music—whether it’s a slightly out-of-tune note, the hiss of tape, or the ambient noise of a recording space—have a way of grounding the sound in reality. They remind us that music is a human endeavor, full of quirks and unpredictability. These imperfections don’t detract from the music; they enhance it by creating a sense of authenticity and intimacy.
In my productions, I often incorporate elements like vinyl crackle, tape distortion, and ambient noise to evoke a feeling of nostalgia. These textures bring a warmth and organic quality to the music that can be hard to achieve with overly polished production.
## **Emotional Resonance Through Rawness**
There’s something deeply emotional about hearing a piece of music that isn’t perfect. A wavering vocal, an unsteady rhythm, or a faint background hum can make a song feel more alive and relatable. Perfection can sometimes feel distant and unattainable, but imperfections invite listeners in, creating a connection that feels personal and genuine.
For example, in one of my tracks, I left in the faint sound of my fingers brushing against piano keys as I played. It wasn’t intentional at first, but when I listened back, I realized it added a layer of intimacy—as if the listener was right there in the room with me.
## **Lo-Fi: A Celebration of Imperfection**
Lo-fi music, by its very definition, is an embrace of imperfection. It revels in the hiss of cassette tapes, the crackle of vinyl, and the subtle flaws that traditional production methods might seek to eliminate. This aesthetic aligns perfectly with my philosophy as an artist: that music doesn’t need to be flawless to be impactful.
Lo-fi’s imperfections are not limitations; they’re features that shape its character. By allowing these raw elements to shine, lo-fi creates an atmosphere of nostalgia and comfort—a reminder that beauty often lies in the imperfect and the incomplete.
## **Finding Freedom in the Flaws**
When I stopped striving for perfection, I found freedom. Embracing imperfections allowed me to focus on the emotional core of my work rather than obsessing over technical precision. It’s in the rawness of a recording, the spontaneity of an improvised melody, or the unpredictable texture of a field recording that I find the most inspiration.
This approach also opens the door to experimentation. When perfection is not the goal, creativity can flow freely. I’ve discovered new sounds and techniques simply by letting go of the need for everything to be “just right.”
## **A Reflection of Life Itself**
Life is imperfect, and music that reflects this reality often feels the most honest. Just as our lives are filled with unexpected turns, small mistakes, and moments of vulnerability, so too can our music. By embracing these elements, we create art that resonates on a deeper level: music that feels human!
## **Final Thoughts**
Imperfections are not flaws to be hidden; they are the soul of the music. They add character, depth, and emotion that can’t be replicated by pristine production alone. As a producer, I’ve found that some of my most meaningful work comes from leaning into the raw, unpolished moments and letting them shape the sound.
To anyone creating music, my advice is this: don’t be afraid of imperfections. Embrace them, celebrate them, and let them tell their own story. You might just find that they hold the key to something truly beautiful.
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@ 2063cd79:57bd1320
2025-02-25 10:44:02
Ich stimme mit Anonymous überein, dass es Probleme mit der tatsächlichen Verwendung von digitalem Bargeld auf kurze Sicht gibt. Aber es hängt in gewissem Maße davon ab, welches Problem man zu lösen versucht.
Eine Sorge, die ich habe, ist, dass der Übergang zum elektronischen Zahlungsverkehr die Privatsphäre einschränken wird, da es einfacher wird, Transaktionen zu protokollieren und aufzuzeichnen. Es könnten Profile angelegt werden, in denen das Ausgabeverhalten eines jeden von uns verfolgt wird.
Schon jetzt wird, wenn ich etwas telefonisch oder elektronisch mit meiner Visa-Karte bestelle, genau aufgezeichnet, wie viel ich ausgegeben habe und wo ich es ausgegeben habe. Im Laufe der Zeit könnten immer mehr Transaktionen auf diese Weise abgewickelt werden, und das Ergebnis könnte einen großen Verlust an Privatsphäre bedeuten.
Die Bezahlung mit Bargeld ist zwar immer noch per Post möglich, aber dies ist unsicher und umständlich. Ich denke, dass die Bequemlichkeit von Kredit- und Debitkarten die Bedenken der meisten Menschen in Bezug auf Privatsphäre ausräumen wird und dass wir uns in einer Situation befinden werden, in der große Mengen an Informationen über das Privatleben aller Leute existieren.
Hier könnte ich mir vorstellen, dass digitales Bargeld eine Rolle spielen könnte. Stellt euch ein Visa-ähnliches System vor, bei dem ich für die Bank nicht anonym bin. Stellt euch in diesem Modell vor, dass mir die Bank einen Kredit gewährt, ganz so wie bei einer Kreditkarte. Allerdings, anstatt mir nur eine Kontonummer zu geben, die ich am Telefon ablese oder in einer E-Mail verschicke, gibt sie mir das Recht, bei Bedarf digitales Bargeld zu verlangen.
Ich habe immer etwas digitales Bargeld beiseite, dass ich für Transaktionen ausgeben kann, wie bereits in früheren Beiträgen beschrieben. Wenn das Geld knapp wird, schicke ich eine E-Mail an die Bank und erhalte mehr digitales Bargeld (dcash). Jeden Monat sende ich einen Check an die Bank, um mein Konto auszugleichen, genauso wie ich es mit meinen Kreditkarten mache. Meine Beziehung zur Bank sind meinen derzeitigen Beziehungen zu den Kreditkartenunternehmen sehr ähnlich: häufige Überweisungen und eine einmalige Rückzahlung jeden Monat per Check.
Das hat mehrere Vorteile gegenüber dem System, auf das wir zusteuern. Es werden keine Aufzeichnungen darüber geführt, wofür ich mein Geld ausgebe. Die Bank weiß nur, wie viel ich jeden Monat abgehoben habe; es könnte sein, dass ich es zu diesem Zeitpunkt ausgegeben habe oder auch nicht. Bei einigen Transaktionen (z.B. Software) könnte ich für den Verkäufer anonym sein; bei anderen könnte der Verkäufer meine wirkliche Adresse kennen, aber dennoch ist keine zentrale Stelle in der Lage, alles zu verfolgen, was ich kaufe.
(Es gibt auch einen Sicherheitsvorteil gegenüber dem lächerlichen aktuellen System, bei dem die Kenntnis über eine 16-stellige Nummer und eines Ablaufdatums es jedem ermöglicht, etwas auf meinen Namen zu bestellen!)
Außerdem sehe ich nicht ein, warum dieses System nicht genauso legal sein sollte wie die derzeitigen Kreditkarten. Der einzige wirkliche Unterschied besteht darin, dass nicht nachverfolgt werden kann, wo die Nutzer ihr Geld ausgeben, und soweit ich weiß, war diese Möglichkeit nie ein wichtiger rechtlicher Aspekt von Kreditkarten. Sicherlich wird heute niemand zugeben, dass die Regierung ein Interesse daran hat, ein Umfeld zu schaffen, in dem jede finanzielle Transaktion nachverfolgt werden kann.
Zugegeben, dies bietet keine vollständige Anonymität. Es ist immer noch möglich, ungefähr zu sehen, wie viel jede Person ausgibt (obwohl nichts eine Person daran hindert, viel mehr Bargeld abzuheben, als sie in einem bestimmten Monat ausgibt, außer vielleicht für Zinsausgaben; aber vielleicht kann sie das zusätzliche digitale Bargel (digicash) selbst verleihen und dafür Zinsen erhalten, um das auszugleichen). Und es orientiert sich an demselben Kunden/ Verkäufer-Modell, das Anonymous kritisierte. Ich behaupte aber, dass dieses Modell heute und in naher Zukunft die Mehrheit der elektronischen Transaktionen ausmachen wird.
Es ist erwähnenswert, dass es nicht trivial ist, ein Anbieter zu werden, der Kreditkarten akzeptiert. Ich habe das mit einem Unternehmen, das ich vor ein paar Jahren betrieben habe, durchgemacht. Wir verkauften Software über den Versandhandel, was die Kreditkartenunternehmen sehr nervös machte. Es gibt zahlreiche Telefonbetrügereien, bei denen Kreditkartennummern über einige Monate hinweg gesammelt werden und dann große Beträge von diesen Karten abgebucht werden. Bis der Kunde seine monatliche Abrechnung erhält und sich beschwert, ist der Verkäufer bereits verschwunden. Um unser Kreditkartenterminal zu bekommen, wandten wir uns an ein Unternehmen, das Start-ups dabei „hilft“. Sie schienen selbst ein ziemlich zwielichtiges Unternehmen zu sein. Wir mussten unseren Antrag dahingehend fälschen, dass wir etwa 50% der Geräte auf Messen verkaufen würden, was offenbar als Verkauf über den Ladentisch zählte. Und wir mussten etwa 3.000 Dollar im Voraus zahlen, als Bestechung, wie es schien. Selbst dann hätten wir es wahrscheinlich nicht geschafft, wenn wir nicht ein Büro im Geschäftsviertel gehabt hätten.
Im Rahmen des digitalen Bargeldsystems könnte dies ein geringeres Problem darstellen. Das Hauptproblem bei digitalem Bargeld sind doppelte Ausgaben, und wenn man bereit ist, eine Online-Überprüfung vorzunehmen (sinnvoll für jedes Unternehmen, das mehr als ein paar Stunden für die Lieferung der Ware benötigt), kann dies vollständig verhindert werden. Es gibt also keine Möglichkeit mehr, dass Händler Kreditkartennummern für spätere Betrügereien sammeln. (Allerdings gibt es immer noch Probleme mit der Nichtlieferung von Waren, so dass nicht alle Risiken beseitigt sind). Dadurch könnte das System schließlich eine größere Verbreitung finden als die derzeitigen Kreditkarten.
Ich weiß nicht, ob dieses System zur Unterstützung von illegalen Aktivitäten, Steuerhinterziehung, Glücksspiel oder Ähnlichem verwendet werden könnte. Das ist nicht der Zweck dieses Vorschlags. Er bietet die Aussicht auf eine Verbesserung der Privatsphäre und der Sicherheit in einem Rahmen, der sogar rechtmäßig sein könnte, und das ist nicht verkehrt.
-----
Englischer Artikel erschienen im Nakamoto Institute: [Digital Cash & Privacy](https://nakamotoinstitute.org/library/digital-cash-and-privacy/here)
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@ 2181959b:80f0d27d
2025-02-25 10:38:33
أطلقت مايكروسوفت بهدوء إصدارًا مجانيًا من تطبيقات Office لأجهزة ويندوز، يتيح للمستخدمين تحرير المستندات دون الحاجة إلى اشتراك في Microsoft 365 أو ترخيص مدفوع.
ومع ذلك، يأتي هذا الإصدار مع إعلانات دائمة وقيود على بعض الميزات الأساسية.
**ما هي قيود الإصدار المجاني من تطبيقات Office؟**
وفقًا لموقع Beebom، يعتمد الإصدار المجاني على التطبيقات المكتبية الكاملة لكنه يُقيد معظم الميزات خلف اشتراك Microsoft 365.
وهذه القيود تتمثل في الآتي:
1: يتم عرض الإعلانات بشكل دائم داخل تطبيقات Word وPowerPoint وExcel أثناء العمل على المستندات.
2: يمكن حفظ الملفات فقط على OneDrive، دون دعم لتحرير الملفات المحلية.
3: لا يتوفر الإملاء الصوتي، والإضافات، والتنسيقات المتقدمة، وSmartArt، مما يجعله مناسبًا للمهام الأساسية فقط.
https://image.nostr.build/bbfd97a76b189c9b826d98208537600ee607169f9ee98c0b3f3a99bb04f3b1f4.jpg
**كيفية الوصول إلى الإصدار المجاني من تطبيقات Office؟**
يمكن للمستخدمين تخطي طلب تسجيل الدخول عند تشغيل أحد تطبيقات Office لأول مرة، وبعد ذلك سيحصلون على خيار استخدامه مجانًا مقابل الإعلانات والميزات المحدودة.
في هذا الوضع، يمكن فتح المستندات وعرضها وتحريرها، تمامًا كما هو الحال في إصدار Office على الويب.
**هل هو متاح للجميع؟**
حاليًا، يبدو أن هذا الإصدار لا يزال في مرحلة الاختبار المحدود، حيث لم يتمكن بعض المستخدمين من تجاوز شاشة تسجيل الدخول عند تشغيل Office. ومن المحتمل أن مايكروسوفت تختبر هذه النسخة في مناطق محددة أو مع مجموعة صغيرة من المستخدمين قبل إطلاقها رسميًا.
حتى الآن، لم تُعلن الشركة رسميًا عن هذا الإصدار، ولم تذكره في مستندات الدعم الخاصة بها، لكن قد تكشف مايكروسوفت عن تفاصيل إضافية خلال الأيام أو الأسابيع المقبلة.
[المصدر]( https://www.windowscentral.com/software-apps/office-365/microsoft-quietly-launches-free-ad-supported-version-of-office-apps-for-windows-with-limited-functionality)
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@ d360efec:14907b5f
2025-02-25 10:16:18
**ภาพรวม BTCUSDT (OKX):**
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) แนวโน้มระยะยาว TF Day ยังคงเป็นขาลง แนวโน้มระยะกลาง TF 4H Sideway down และแนวโน้มระยะสั้น TF 15M Sideways Down
**วิเคราะห์ทีละ Timeframe:**
**(1) TF Day (รายวัน):** 
* **แนวโน้ม:** ขาลง (Downtrend)
* **SMC:**
* Lower Highs (LH) และ Lower Lows (LL)
* Break of Structure (BOS) ด้านล่าง
* **Liquidity:**
* มี Sellside Liquidity (SSL) อยู่ใต้ Lows ก่อนหน้า
* มี Buyside Liquidity (BSL) อยู่เหนือ Highs ก่อนหน้า
* **ICT:**
* **Order Block** ราคาไม่สามารถผ่าน Order Block ได้
* **EMA:**
* ราคาอยู่ใต้ EMA 50 และ EMA 200
* **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):**
* สีแดง
* **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):**
* สีแดง แสดงถึงแนวโน้มขาลง
* **Chart Patterns:** *ไม่มีรูปแบบที่ชัดเจน*
* **Volume Profile:**
* Volume ค่อนข้างนิ่ง
* **แท่งเทียน:** แท่งเทียนล่าสุดเป็นสีแดง
* **แนวรับ:** บริเวณ Low ล่าสุด
* **แนวต้าน:** EMA 50, EMA 200 , Order Block
* **สรุป:** แนวโน้มขาลง
**(2) TF4H (4 ชั่วโมง):** 
* **แนวโน้ม:** ขาลง (Downtrend)
* **SMC:**
* Lower Highs (LH) และ Lower Lows (LL)
* Break of Structure (BOS) ด้านล่าง
* **Liquidity:**
* มี SSL อยู่ใต้ Lows ก่อนหน้า
* มี BSL อยู่เหนือ Highs ก่อนหน้า
* **ICT:**
* **Order Block** ราคาไม่สามารถผ่าน Order Block ได้
* **EMA:**
* ราคาอยู่ใต้ EMA 50 และ EMA 200
* **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):**
* สีแดง แสดงถึงแรงขาย
* **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):**
* สีแดง แสดงถึงแนวโน้มขาลง
* **Chart Patterns:** *ไม่มีรูปแบบที่ชัดเจน*
* **Volume Profile:**
* Volume ค่อนข้างนิ่ง
* **แนวรับ:** บริเวณ Low ล่าสุด
* **แนวต้าน:** EMA 50, EMA 200, Order Block
* **สรุป:** แนวโน้มขาลง,
**(3) TF15 (15 นาที):** 
* **แนวโน้ม:** Sideway Down
* **SMC:**
* Lower High (LH) และ Lower Lows (LL)
* Break of Structure (BOS) ด้านล่าง
* **ICT:**
* **Order Block:** ราคา Sideways ใกล้ Order Block
* **EMA:**
* EMA 50 และ EMA 200 เป็นแนวต้าน
* **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):**
* แดง
* **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):**
* แดง/ ไม่มีสัญญาณ
* **Chart Patterns:** *ไม่มีรูปแบบที่ชัดเจน*
* **Volume Profile:** Volume ค่อนข้างสูง
* **แนวรับ:** บริเวณ Low ล่าสุด
* **แนวต้าน:** EMA 50, EMA 200, Order Block
* **สรุป:** แนวโน้ม Sideways Down,
**สรุปภาพรวมและกลยุทธ์ (BTCUSDT):**
* **แนวโน้มหลัก (Day):** ขาลง
* **แนวโน้มรอง (4H):** ขาลง
* **แนวโน้มระยะสั้น (15m):** Sideways Down
* **Liquidity:** มี SSL ทั้งใน Day, 4H, และ 15m
* **Money Flow:** เป็นลบในทุก Timeframes
* **Trend Strength:** Day/4H/15m เป็นขาลง
* **Chart Patterns:** ไม่พบรูปแบบที่ชัดเจน
* **กลยุทธ์:**
1. **Wait & See (ดีที่สุด):** รอความชัดเจน
2. **Short (เสี่ยง):** ถ้าไม่สามารถ Breakout EMA/แนวต้านใน TF ใดๆ ได้ หรือเมื่อเกิดสัญญาณ Bearish Continuation
3. **ไม่แนะนำให้ Buy:** จนกว่าจะมีสัญญาณกลับตัวที่ชัดเจนมากๆ
**Day Trade & การเทรดรายวัน:**
* **Day Trade (TF15):**
* **Short Bias:** หาจังหวะ Short เมื่อราคาเด้งขึ้นไปทดสอบแนวต้าน (EMA, Order Block)
* **Stop Loss:** เหนือแนวต้านที่เข้า Short
* **Take Profit:** แนวรับถัดไป (Low ล่าสุด)
* **ไม่แนะนำให้ Long**
* **Swing Trade (TF4H):**
* **Short Bias:** รอจังหวะ Short เมื่อราคาไม่สามารถผ่านแนวต้าน EMA หรือ Order Block ได้
* **Stop Loss:** เหนือแนวต้านที่เข้า Short
* **Take Profit:** แนวรับถัดไป
* **ไม่แนะนำให้ Long**
**สิ่งที่ต้องระวัง:**
* **Sellside Liquidity (SSL):** มีโอกาสสูงที่ราคาจะถูกลากลงไปแตะ SSL
* **False Breakouts:** ระวัง
* **Volatility:** สูง
**Setup Day Trade แบบ SMC (ตัวอย่าง):**
1. **ระบุ Order Block:** หา Order Block ขาลง (Bearish Order Block) ใน TF15
2. **รอ Pullback:** รอให้ราคา Pullback ขึ้นไปทดสอบ Order Block นั้น
3. **หา Bearish Entry:**
* **Rejection:** รอ Price Action ปฏิเสธ Order Block
* **Break of Structure:** รอให้ราคา Break โครงสร้างย่อยๆ
* **Money Flow:** ดู Money Flow ให้เป็นสีแดง
4. **ตั้ง Stop Loss:** เหนือ Order Block
5. **ตั้ง Take Profit:** แนวรับถัดไป
**คำแนะนำ:**
* **ความขัดแย้งของ Timeframes:** ไม่มีแล้ว ทุก Timeframes สอดคล้องกัน
* **Money Flow:** เป็นลบในทุก Timeframes
* **Trend Strength:** เป็นลบ
* **Order Block TF Day:** หลุด Order Block ขาขึ้นแล้ว
* **ถ้าไม่แน่ใจ อย่าเพิ่งเข้าเทรด**
**Disclaimer:** การวิเคราะห์นี้เป็นเพียงความคิดเห็นส่วนตัว ไม่ถือเป็นคำแนะนำในการลงทุน ผู้ลงทุนควรศึกษาข้อมูลเพิ่มเติมและตัดสินใจด้วยความรอบคอบ
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@ d360efec:14907b5f
2025-02-25 09:12:44
$OKX:BTCUSDT.P
**Overall Assessment:**
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) on OKX is currently showing a bearish trend across all analyzed timeframes (Daily, 4-Hour, and 15-Minute). While the long-term trend (Daily) was technically an uptrend, it has *significantly weakened* and broken key support levels, including a major bullish Order Block and the 50-period EMA. The 4-hour and 15-minute charts confirm the downtrend. This analysis focuses on identifying potential areas of Smart Money activity (liquidity pools and order blocks), assessing trend strength, and looking for any emerging chart patterns.
**Detailed Analysis by Timeframe:**
**(1) TF Day (Daily):**

* **Trend:** Downtrend
* **SMC (Smart Money Concepts):**
* The Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) structure is *broken*.
* Prior Breaks of Structure (BOS) to the upside, but now a significant and deep pullback/reversal is underway.
* **Liquidity:**
* **Sellside Liquidity (SSL):** Significant SSL rests below previous lows in the 85,000 - 90,000 range.
* **Buyside Liquidity (BSL):** BSL is present above the all-time high.
* **ICT (Inner Circle Trader Concepts):**
* **Order Block:** The price has *broken below* the prior bullish Order Block. This is a *major bearish signal*.
* **FVG:** No significant Fair Value Gap is apparent at the current price level.
* **EMA (Exponential Moving Average):**
* Price is *below* the 50-period EMA (yellow).
* The 200-period EMA (white) is the next major support level.
* **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):**
* A *long red bar* indicates strong and sustained selling pressure.
* **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):**
* Red cloud, indicating a downtrend. No buy/sell signals are present.
* **Chart Patterns:** No readily identifiable chart patterns are dominant.
* **Volume Profile:** Relatively low volume.
* **Candlesticks:** Recent candlesticks are red, confirming selling pressure.
* **Support:** EMA 200, 85,000-90,000 (SSL area).
* **Resistance:** EMA 50, Previous All-Time High.
* **Summary:** The Daily chart has shifted to a downtrend. The break below the Order Block and 50 EMA, combined with negative Money Flow and Trend Strength, are all strong bearish signals.
**(2) TF4H (4-Hour):**

* **Trend:** Downtrend.
* **SMC:**
* Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL).
* BOS to the downside.
* **Liquidity:**
* **SSL:** Below previous lows.
* **BSL:** Above previous highs.
* **ICT:**
* **Order Block:** The price was rejected by a bearish Order Block.
* **EMA:**
* Price is below both the 50-period and 200-period EMAs (bearish).
* **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):**
* Predominantly red, confirming selling pressure.
* **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):**
* Red cloud, confirming downtrend.
* **Chart Patterns:** No readily identifiable chart patterns.
* **Volume Profile:** Relatively steady volume.
* **Support:** Recent lows.
* **Resistance:** EMA 50, EMA 200, Order Block.
* **Summary:** The 4-hour chart is in a confirmed downtrend. Money Flow and Trend Strength are bearish.
**(3) TF15 (15-Minute):**
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* **Trend:** Downtrend / Sideways Down
* **SMC:**
* Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL).
* BOS to the downside.
* **ICT:**
* **Order Block** price is near to a bearish Order Block.
* **EMA:**
* The 50-period and 200-period EMAs are acting as resistance.
* **Money Flow (LuxAlgo):**
* Red
* **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):**
* Red/No signals
* **Chart Patterns:** None
* **Volume Profile:**
* Relatively High Volume
* **Support:** Recent lows.
* **Resistance:** EMA 50, EMA 200, Order Block.
* **Summary:** The 15-minute chart is clearly bearish, with price action, EMAs, and Money Flow all confirming the downtrend.
**Overall Strategy and Recommendations (BTCUSDT):**
* **Primary Trend (Day):** Downtrend
* **Secondary Trend (4H):** Downtrend.
* **Short-Term Trend (15m):** Downtrend/ Sideways Down.
* **Liquidity:** Significant SSL zones exist below the current price on all timeframes.
* **Money Flow:** Negative on all timeframes.
* **Trend Strength:** Bearish on Day,4H and 15m.
* **Chart Patterns:** None identified.
* **Strategies:**
1. **Wait & See (Best Option):** The strong bearish momentum on all shorter timeframes.
2. **Short (High Risk):** This aligns with the 4H and 15m downtrends.
* **Entry:** On rallies towards resistance levels (EMAs on 15m/4H, previous support levels that have turned into resistance, Order Blocks).
* **Stop Loss:** Above recent highs on the chosen timeframe, or above a key resistance level.
* **Target:** The next support levels (recent lows on 15m, then potentially the SSL zones on the 4H and Daily charts).
3. **Buy (Extremely High Risk - NOT Recommended):** Do *not* attempt to buy until there are *very strong and consistent* bullish reversal signals across *all* timeframes.
**Key Recommendations:**
* **Conflicting Timeframes:** The conflict is resolved toward the downside. The Daily is weakening significantly.
* **Money Flow:** Consistently negative across all timeframes, a major bearish factor.
* **Trend Strength:** Bearish on Day,4h and 15m.
* **Daily Order Block:** The *break* of the bullish Order Block on the Daily chart is a significant bearish development.
* **Sellside Liquidity (SSL):** Be aware that Smart Money may target the SSL zones below. This increases the risk of stop-loss hunting.
* **Risk Management:** Due to the high uncertainty and volatility, *strict risk management is absolutely critical.* Use tight stop-losses, do not overtrade, and be prepared for rapid price swings.
* **Volume:** Confirm any breakout or breakdown with volume.
**Day Trading and Intraday Trading Strategies:**
* **Day Trade (TF15 focus):**
* **Short Bias:** Given the current 15m downtrend and negative Money Flow, the higher probability is to look for shorting opportunities.
* **Entry:** Look for price to rally to resistance levels (EMAs, Order Blocks, previous support levels that have become resistance) and then show signs of rejection (bearish candlestick patterns, increasing volume on the downside).
* **Stop Loss:** Place a stop-loss order above the resistance level where you enter the short position.
* **Take Profit:** Target the next support level (recent lows).
* **Avoid Long positions** until there's a *clear* and *confirmed* bullish reversal on the 15m chart (break above EMAs, positive Money Flow, bullish market structure).
* **Swing Trade (TF4H focus):**
* **Short Bias:** The 4H chart is in a downtrend.
* **Entry:** Wait for price to rally to resistance levels (EMAs, Order Blocks) and show signs of rejection.
* **Stop Loss:** Above the resistance level where you enter the short position.
* **Take Profit:** Target the next support levels (e.g., the 200 EMA on the Daily chart, SSL zones).
* **Avoid Long positions** until there's a *clear* and *confirmed* bullish reversal on the 4H chart.
**SMC Day Trade Setup Example (TF15 - Bearish):**
1. **Identify Bearish Order Block:** Locate a bearish Order Block on the TF15 chart (a bullish candle before a strong downward move).
2. **Wait for Pullback:** Wait for the price to pull back up to test the Order Block (this may or may not happen).
3. **Bearish Entry:**
* **Rejection:** Look for price action to reject the Order Block (e.g., a pin bar, engulfing pattern, or other bearish candlestick pattern).
* **Break of Structure:** Look for a break of a minor support level on a *lower* timeframe (e.g., 1-minute or 5-minute) after the price tests the Order Block. This confirms weakening bullish momentum.
* **Money Flow:** Confirm that Money Flow remains negative (red).
4. **Stop Loss:** Place a stop-loss order *above* the Order Block.
5. **Take Profit:** Target the next support level (e.g., recent lows) or a bullish Order Block on a higher timeframe.
**In conclusion, BTCUSDT is currently in a high-risk, bearish environment. The "Wait & See" approach is strongly recommended for most traders. Shorting is the higher-probability trade *at this moment*, but only for experienced traders who can manage risk extremely effectively. Buying is not recommended at this time.**
**Disclaimer:** This analysis is for informational purposes only and represents a personal opinion. It is not financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves significant risk. Investors should conduct their own research and exercise due diligence before making any investment decisions.
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@ b8af284d:f82c91dd
2025-02-25 08:11:32
Liebe Abonnenten,
*„The Fourth Turning“ ist ein epochemachendes wie hellseherisches Buch von William Strauss und Neil Howe. Es erschien 1997 mit der These, wonach Geschichte in Zyklen von 80 bis 100 Jahren verlaufe. Jede Gesellschaft durchlaufe vier Phasen („Turnings“): **High, Awakening, Unraveling und Crisis**. Nach der Crisis kommt es zum „Fourth Turning“ - welches die Autoren in den Jahren 2020 bis 2030 prophezeiten. Das klingt nach esoterischer Science-Fiction-Literatur, ist es aber nicht: Der mittlerweile verstorbene Strauss war Historiker, Howl ist Ökonom. In „The Fourth Turning“ argumentieren sie demnach weitgehend wissenschaftlich. Die Argumentation hier wiederzugeben, würden den Rahmen sprengen. Aber nur soviel: Wir sind mittendrin. Abseits des turbulenten Tagesgeschehens beginnt sich, eine neue Finanzordnung abzuzeichnen.*
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Musk und sein “[Department of Government Efficiency](https://x.com/DOGE)” drehen gerade jeden Stein um, den sie finden können. Alle Ausgaben der Regierung kommen auf den Prüfstand.
Deswegen wurden sämtliche Zahlungen an die vermeintliche Entwicklungshilfe-Organisation USAID gestrichen. In die meisten Leitmedien schafften es nur Meldungen, wonach nun [Projekte zur Förderung von Beschneidungen in Mozambique und Biodiversität in Nepal ](https://x.com/DOGE/status/1890849405932077378)kein Geld mehr erhalten. Weniger war davon zu lesen, dass USAID als Deckorganisation für die CIA funktionierte und zum Beispiel[ die Forschung an pathogenen Corona-Viren in China](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/486983/usaid-wont-give-details-on-4-67-million-grant-to-wuhan-lab-collaborator-ecohealth-alliance/) mit 4,6 Millionen finanzierte. Auch mit dabei: [2,6 Millionen Dollar an ein Zensur-Programm namens “Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH](https://x.com/AllumBokhari/status/1892027594666541412))” und vieles mehr: eine gute Übersicht findet man hier auf der [Website des Weißen Haus](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/at-usaid-waste-and-abuse-runs-deep/)’. Die Einsparungen sind so hoch aktuell rund neun Milliarden US-Dollar, das darüber nachgedacht wird, einen Teil der Steuergelder wieder an die Bürger zurückzuzahlen: [Die “DogeDividend” könnte bei 5000$ pro Kopf liegen](https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1892182305487097877). (Wer sich noch an den Covid-Stimulus in Höhe von 1200$ erinnert, weiß, welche Rally die Zahlungen 2020 auslösten).
Der Kassensturz umfasst aber längst nicht nur USAID, sondern betrifft sämtliche Staatsausgaben. Sämtliche Ausgaben und Vermögenswerte der USA werden erfasst und hinsichtlich ihrer Nützlichkeit überprüft.
Im Rahmen von DOGE ließ Elon Musk kürzlich fragen, ob es nicht mal Zeit für eine Zählung der Gold-Reserven wäre. In Fort Knox, das die meisten wahrscheinlich aus James-Bond-Filmen oder Donald-Duck-Comics kennen, lagern mindestens 4800 Tonnen Gold - über die Hälfte der amerikanischen Reserven. Das heißt: Niemand weiß genau, wie viel es eigentlich sind. Die letzte Inventur fand 1953 statt.
Dasselbe gilt für die Zahlungen in die Ukraine. Mindestens 270 Milliarden US-Dollar haben die USA an Kiew gezahlt. Das Resultat: vermutlich über eine halbe Million Tote, ein völlig zerstörtes Land und ein korruptes System.
Nach der Rede von JD Vance bei der Münchener Sicherheitskonferenz ist Europa erst einmal in Schnappatmung gefallen. Am Dienstag darauf folgten zum ersten Mal seit Jahren direkte Gespräche zwischen Moskau und Washington in Saudi-Arabien. Europäer waren nicht eingeladen, die hielten stattdessen ein Krisentreffen in Paris ab.
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Innerhalb der EU wird jetzt von einem neuen Militärfonds gefaselt, um die größte Aufrüstung des Kontinents seit 1933 zu finanzieren. [700 Milliarden Euro soll der umfassen, finanziert durch Steuererhöhungen](https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/wirtschaft-verantwortung/baerbock-verplappert-sich-nach-der-wahl-milliarden-fuer-ukraine-li.2295623), da ja der Schutz der USA jetzt wegfalle. Man kann nur hoffen, dass die EU-Bürokratie zusammen mit Selenski nicht auf die Idee kommt, den Krieg allein weiterzuführen oder den Friedensprozess zu sabotieren.
Vielen dürfte allerdings klar sein, dass sich demnächst etwas grundsätzlich ändern wird. Die Trump-Administration ordnet die Welt neu, und damit auch die globale Finanzarchitektur. Was hat es damit auf sich? Und worum geht es eigentlich?
Zur Erinnerung: Mit dem Beitritt Chinas zur Welthandelsorganisation 2001 wurde die industrielle Basis der USA nach und nach ausgehöhlt. Chinesische Waren waren billiger - und so verlagerten sich immer mehr Industrien nach China. Deutschland profitierte relativ länger von dieser Entwicklung, da die Automobilindustrie wettbewerbsfähiger war und deutsche Maschinenbauer chinesische Fabriken ausstatteten.
\
Trump 1 versuchte diese Entwicklung mit Zöllen zu unterbinden. Bei Trump 2 geht es um mehr. Zölle sind nur noch die vorübergehende Waffe, die Ziele durchzusetzen. Ziel ist ein schwächerer Dollar.
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Eine starke Währung klingt nett, bedeutet aber nichts anderes, als dass Importe aus anderen Ländern günstiger sind und Exporte in andere Länder vergleichsweise teurer sind. Eine schwächere Währung heißt dagegen, dass Exporte günstiger und damit wettbewerbsfähiger sind. Ein starker Dollar behindert deswegen den (Rück-)Aufbau der amerikanischen Industrie. Allerdings ist das eben auch genau der Preis, den ein Land für eine Leit- oder Reserve-Währung zahlen muss. Weil die Welt mit US-Dollar bezahlt - auch ein mexikanisches Unternehmen, das mit einem chinesischen handelt, wickelt das mit Dollar ab - ist die Nachfrage nach US-Dollar hoch, und die Währung damit stark:
> *From a trade perspective, the dollar is persistently overvalued, in large part because dollar assets function as the world’s reserve currency. This overvaluation has weighed heavily on the American manufacturing sector while benefiting financialized sectors of the economy in manners that benefit wealthy Americans.*
Die USA zahlten indirekt für dieses Privileg, indem sie es sich zur Aufgabe machten, internationale Handelswege zu schützen. Die US-Marine übernahm nach 1945 und besonders nach 1989 den Job der British Royal Navy, und bewacht seitdem alle wichtigen Schifffahrtswege weltweit, um freien Handel zu ermöglichen.
\
*The U.S. dollar is the reserve asset in large part because America provides stability, liquidity, market depth and the rule of law. Those are related to the characteristics that make America powerful enough to project physical force worldwide and allow it to shape and defend the global international order. The history of intertwinement between reserve currency status and national security is long.*
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Das System funktionierte auch deswegen, weil die allermeisten, befreundeten Staaten, ihr Überschüsse wieder in US-Dollar-Anleihen anlegten (US-Treasuries). Dieses Recycling aus “Amerikaner konsumieren und zahlen mit US-Dollar, die China, Japan und die EU wiederum in US-Anleihen anlegen” funktionierte lange gut.
Das Problem ist seit einigen Jahren: Die Situation hat sich zuungunsten der USA verschoben. Man zahlt viel für das Militär, aber die Gewinne, die sich aus einer Leitwährung ergeben, sind gefallen. Kurz gesagt: Das Verteidigungsbudget wächst, während Arbeitsplätze verloren gegangen sind. Zwar konnten sich die USA in den vergangenen Jahren günstiger als andere verschulden. Trotzdem erdrückt die Schuldenlast mittlerweile den Etat, und immer weniger Staaten haben Lust, ihre Reserven in US-Treasuries anzulegen. Sie kaufen lieber Gold (und vielleicht auch bald Bitcoin).
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Eine Neugewichtung des Deals ist notwendig. Daher der Kassensturz. Daher die ständigen Aufforderungen Trumps an Verbündete, künftig mehr zu zahlen.
Die Lösung könnte ein „Mar-a-Lago“-Accord sein. Die USA befanden sich in den 1980er Jahren schon einmal in einer ähnlichen Situation: Japanische und deutsche Waren überschwemmten die amerikanischen Märkte. Nach einem verlorenen Krieg in Vietnam und hoher Inflation hatten sich innerhalb Gesellschaft große Spannungen aufgebaut. Ronald Reagan, übrigens ein Präsident, der ähnlich polarisierte wie Trump heute, sprach 1985 Klartext: Japan und in geringerem Maße die BRD, Frankreich und Großbritannien hatten ihre Währungen aufzuwerten. Damit wurde die Flut der Exporte in die USA gestemmt und die Finanzflüsse stabilisiert.
Seit einigen Wochen gibt es relativ klare Pläne, wie diese neue Ordnung aussehen soll. Sie gehen zurück auf den Ökonomen Steve Miran, der bereits unter der ersten Trump-Administration eine Berater-Rolle hatte. Seit Dezember 2024 ist der Vorsitzender des Council of Economic Advisers. Miran wiederum steht [Zoltan Pozsar nahe, der 2022/23 zum Shooting Star der Macro-Economy-Nerds wurde](https://www.finews.ch/themen/guruwatch/58206-zoltan-pozsar-ex-uno-plures-resarch-dollar-zinsen-bretton-woods-ungarn). Worum geht es?
Weiter geht es auf <https://blingbling.substack.com/p/der-mar-a-lago-accord>
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@ 57d1a264:69f1fee1
2025-02-25 07:28:18
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@Voltage team will be building a simple implementation of a Lightning gated API service using a Voltage LND Node and the L402 protocol.
📅 Thursday, February 27th 4:00 PM CDT
📷 Live on Voltage Discord, on X, or on YouTube.
- discord.gg/EN93fDfQ
- https://x.com/voltage_cloud/status/1892938201980919985
- https://www.youtube.com/@voltage_cloud
originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/896373
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@ 6389be64:ef439d32
2025-02-25 05:53:41
Biochar in the soil attracts microbes who take up permanent residence in the "coral reef" the biochar provides. Those microbes then attract mycorrhizal fungi to the reef. The mycorrhizal fungi are also attached to plant roots connecting diverse populations to each other, allowing transportation of molecular resources (water, cations, anions etc).
The char surface area attracts positively charged ions like
K+
Ca2+
Mg2+
NH4+
Na+
H+
Al3+
Fe2+
Fe3+
Mn2+
Cu2+
Zn2+
Many of these are transferred to plant roots by mycorrhizal fungi in exchange for photosynthetic products (sugars). Mycorrhizal fungi are connected to both plant roots and biochar. Char adsorbs these cations so, it stands to reason that under periods of minimal need by plants for these cations (stress, low or no sunlight etc.), mycorrhizal fungi could deposit the cations to the char surfaces. The char would be acting as a "bank" for the cations and the deposition would be of low energy cost.
Once the plant starts exuding photosynthetic products again, signaling a need for these cations, the fungi can start "stripping" the cations off of the char surface for immediate exchange of the cations for the sugars. This would be a high energy transaction because the fungi would have to expend energy to strip the cations off of the char surface, in effect, an "interest rate".
The char might act as a reservoir of cations that were mined by the fungi while the sugar flow from the roots was active. It's a bank.
originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/896340
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@ ef1744f8:96fbc3fe
2025-02-25 05:51:23
kZPO/Pgqm/nOfGtpHNVK3gcDhzs5sSvyVqUZlAJrs95os0xUFhO4VlBC5GuEYF0uYTTGVGe60TjK8sm+ixOIPxpd3eYGGtZs9CjkRzis8vU=?iv=KyDTZEV4fCT/lKJWR4heeQ==
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@ ef1744f8:96fbc3fe
2025-02-25 05:45:21
B3rafJgfWeHKOv/c2y8pk7thAOvmYYooCN1BMJh+gtmngdanQ7Mnimz048gzTWlV8Ap6wHRtu2rD6W6KDt6r82HlaftHm8jRBH1BGJ8Aw+GYy/PRGuQnUZP3DcjZusRchZSIhWuFBnhonWUHrxwnzrmcolx6yPekWKzxn9DR8Kt2qWIxbg2791EnuQn6orrAdw8MJJQg/hZhEdqib8KuweUrn6YDPi8ICV099rHUAlWBR6NSn/kwyomarCmV6U0bucUiv5y6QrBUSIQGfMTKYGBgmdXdeWTQ4YSYTaF0cZNDCJorksVIxx32dpc8RhYsvooZwk0OAAGg5LO5dekA1rn5jZk6rbmAnRcvnQFcue0=?iv=gZIUGRNTRQULCjSeRae+YQ==
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@ ef1744f8:96fbc3fe
2025-02-25 04:39:34
z9Lx1dooDqHDDhWqropQYC1DWuFDIPxnfgiKc2T0ZFYdD45DOQNWX/kVslqJzGIe3s7KB8QBIhaxcYte84h631adZwVR/15tZOC8FeeLeIt8fM8QCromJVIoPJU29yY4kLepPMDWw7WoWfDysolhLDv1dtPrOkIWZ+188YOjAc8byhgWsvWgfwxlfS+26BpZadFIBolA4kDqN1dO+SQnyM9mUD1jc3aLe4utOlij/+gU0XkN93W7637MBN41AXGBLAv4E4AG+ywAQrx8f2R8JUY+Vg+DLmq1/vuUH+S1qTC/Lz6HEy5H2HiGeSyK43UB7QV7HLGn0e5KUtn6dxjl/irrJQL6dDdilCpdCBgCBBk=?iv=xctArPoh36458mWve+tqEw==
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@ ef1744f8:96fbc3fe
2025-02-25 04:33:53
qT0bRNd6LiQzh1Y34rZv39xcgw5TCv9xZ5xAxbHoBDrhfaYGyll5g4XvgHY0LgfxcxSt8XcMI50yjY19WYfwvxl0gASsXBljn8SzhlO4RiF0NorJCklhOjDo93kQON/pVOYNmIi9oGTpqMWWxE5Qh53tvA2zaPG67B6CBCjh7wbVnFrLqCdq1KV9iBSRZmFXaBYWcn3pFcGKlqTV/NGrHnVFwqjS1uFAZZrScwxWRmbM1TVplp6f5dHNxTfe8pXajSsvO3kXV5jRCLr6C2jJMWepUFWw33tjBCwGOyo9kbkf0C++OTHrlPMECi5vXq18C1L+bA0ouVlVlfYu5j/ywg==?iv=BgxOFzpGx/RiIRYKZZz/8g==
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@ ef1744f8:96fbc3fe
2025-02-25 04:19:37
gGRBBQfw8RRgMK4XZ9kE3MpdCdFgngP/0/QQUfUdEbX6ZjUr2cZ6B6yID05lexoOosOSlzmPbTbx5y8Imur0ls8EHBik31l/IZdYdln8vPGnQ341Ul4Kp88VCjJ9UWNY6l+Sel9XbwwGGqzBvIIRsg+OWCAput62iAErCDmsVkMYMfnmhH8cSVYFOwEWqk4H1iKFSsWnRbRZ8w5scRXgjHIaQNQ6QSsSWAgC8jeZi7mFmTJN+JrBPBQEzM30AUWFpMjUy8NVKflfe9dRJ9j1OfDFCwZxAmohvBpWx3TgFDvcpAOnIH3J/d4XO7XJpZ4pJPSo5Sej73lDwYKQSEpGng==?iv=XKhoZRopkCInuqqAzP1haQ==
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@ 04ea4f83:210e1713
2025-02-24 06:42:36
Erschienen im [The Bitstein Brief](https://bitstein.substack.com/p/mises-the-original-toxic-maximalist?ref=europeanbitcoiners.com) | Veröffenlichung 10.12.2022 |\
Author: [Bitstein (Michael Goldstein)](https://twitter.com/bitstein?ref=europeanbitcoiners.com)\
Übersetzt von: [Sinautoshi am 11.12.2022 - 766906](https://twitter.com/Sinautoshi_8_21?ref=europeanbitcoiners.com)
*„Die gesellschaftliche Funktion der Wirtschaftswissenschaft besteht gerade darin, solide Wirtschaftstheorien zu entwickeln und die Irrtümer bösartiger Denkweisen zu entlarven. Bei der Verfolgung dieser Aufgabe zieht der Wirtschaftswissenschaftler die tödliche Feindschaft aller Schwindler und Scharlatane auf sich, deren Abkürzungen zum irdischen Paradies er entlarvt. Je weniger diese Quacksalber in der Lage sind, plausible Einwände gegen die Argumente eines Ökonomen vorzubringen, desto wütender beschimpfen sie ihn.“*
\- Ludwig von Mises, „Nationalökonomie, Theorie des Handelns und Wirtschaftens”
***
Das „toxischste" an einem Bitcoin-Maximalisten ist seine unerschütterliche Bereitschaft, „*Nein” *zu sagen. Nach dem Studium der Geldtheorie und -geschichte und der Erfahrung mit den unerbittlichen Kräften des Marktes, hat der Bitcoiner ein Verständnis für die Realität des monetären Wettbewerbs, ein Bewusstsein für die kritische Natur dezentraler Systeme, einen Fokus auf die Lösung der wichtigsten monetären Probleme und eine strikte Ablehnung der unvermeidlichen Ablenkungen, Opportunitätskosten und ethischen Bedenken bei der Einführung und Förderung von Altcoin-Projekten.
Einige Kritiker bemängeln unhöfliche rhetorische Schnörkel, die als Hindernis für die Gewinnung neuer Bitcoin-Nutzer angesehen werden. Wenn das wahr wäre, gäbe es in der Arbeitsteilung eine Chance für eine qualitativ hochwertigere Bitcoin-Ausbildung, die die Bitcoiner meiner Meinung nach gerne wahrnehmen würden, vor allem die Kritiker, die die bestehenden Unzulänglichkeiten besser erkennen. Doch egal, wie höflich die Bitcoiner ihre Ansichten darlegen, bestimmte Möchtegern-Unternehmer und Influencer werden immer im Streit mit einer leidenschaftlichen Bevölkerungsgruppe stehen, die einfach nicht interessiert ist - und ihr Desinteresse lautstark kundtut. Die „toxischsten" Bitcoiner sind oft diejenigen, die die Weisheit der Bitcoiner erst erkannt haben, nachdem sie von Shitcoins verbrannt wurden und ihr neu gefundenes Desinteresse unmissverständlich zum Ausdruck bringen wollen.
Was soll man also als Bitcoiner tun? Ich empfehle, sich der Wahrheit und der Förderung der Wahrheit zu verschreiben und die Wirksamkeit von Rhetorik an ihrem langfristigen Einfluss und nicht an ihrer kurzfristigen Popularität zu messen.
In dieser Hinsicht sollten sich die Bitcoiner von dem ursprünglichen toxischen Maximalisten inspirieren lassen: Ludwig von Mises. Der bedeutende Wirtschaftswissenschaftler setzte sich unbeirrt für die Wahrheit, freie Märkte und gesundes Geld ein und scheute sich nicht, das zu sagen, was gesagt werden musste, auch wenn er sich damit keine Freunde machte. Langfristig wurde er zu einem der einflussreichsten Ökonomen und Denker des 20. Jahrhunderts, und seine Arbeit hat den Weg für den Bitcoin geebnet.
### Mises, der Geldmaximalist
Einer der Hauptkritikpunkte an den Bitcoin-Maximalisten ist die Behauptung, dass die Welt auf Bitcoin (als Geld) konvergieren wird und es generell keine Verwendung für andere Währungen gibt. Dies wird als normative Aussage betrachtet. In Wirklichkeit machen die Bitcoiner eine positive, beschreibende Aussage darüber, wie der monetäre Wettbewerb funktioniert.
In der 1912 veröffentlichten *[Theorie des Geldes und der Umlaufmittel](https://mises.org/library/theory-money-and-credit?ref=europeanbitcoiners.com)*[ ](https://mises.org/library/theory-money-and-credit?ref=europeanbitcoiners.com)schrieb Mises:
***
*„So haben die Erfordernisse des Marktes allmählich dazu geführt, dass bestimmte Waren als gemeinsame Tauschmittel ausgewählt wurden. Die Gruppe der Waren, aus der diese ausgewählt wurden, war ursprünglich sehr groß und unterschied sich von Land zu Land; sie wurde aber immer mehr eingeschränkt. Wann immer ein direkter Tausch nicht in Frage kam, war jede der an einem Geschäft beteiligten Parteien bestrebt, ihre überflüssigen Waren nicht nur gegen marktgängigere Waren im Allgemeinen, sondern gegen die marktgängigsten Waren einzutauschen, und von diesen wiederum bevorzugte sie natürlich die marktgängigste Ware. Je größer die Marktfähigkeit der zuerst im indirekten Tausch erworbenen Waren ist, desto größer ist die Aussicht, das endgültige Ziel ohne weitere Manöver erreichen zu können. So gäbe es die unvermeidliche Tendenz, dass die weniger marktfähigen Güter aus der Reihe der als Tauschmittel verwendeten Waren nach und nach verworfen würden, bis schließlich nur noch ein einziges Gut übrig bliebe, das allgemein als Tauschmittel verwendet würde: das Geld.“*
***
Mises zufolge wählen die Akteure zunehmend das marktgängigste Gut als Tauschmittel aus und der natürliche Verlauf des Marktes geht in Richtung Vereinheitlichung zu einem einzigen Geldgut. Das ist schlicht und einfach monetärer Maximalismus.
Mises unterscheidet sich von den Bitcoinern lediglich durch die Stärke der Behauptungen, die er über die tatsächlichen empirischen Entscheidungen der Wirtschaftsakteure zu treffen bereit ist. Mises weist darauf hin, dass sowohl Gold als auch Silber an vielen Orten zu Geld gemacht wurden, wahrscheinlich wegen ihrer ähnlichen Eigenschaften, und dass es den Rahmen der Geldtheorie sprengt, zu sagen, ob Gold oder Silber letztlich besser verkäuflich ist. Trotzdem sagt er:
***
*„Denn es ist ziemlich sicher, dass die Vereinheitlichung auch dann ein wünschenswertes geldpolitisches Ziel gewesen wäre, wenn die ungleiche Marktfähigkeit der als Tauschmittel verwendeten Güter kein Motiv geboten hätte. Die gleichzeitige Verwendung mehrerer Geldarten bringt so viele Nachteile mit sich und verkompliziert die Technik des Tauschens so sehr, dass das Bestreben, das Geldsystem zu vereinheitlichen, in jedem Fall unternommen worden wäre.“*
***
Die natürliche Tendenz zu einem einzigen Geldgut ist so stark, dass seiner Meinung nach die Vereinheitlichung der Geldsysteme auch dann angestrebt würde, wenn zwei Güter genau gleich marktfähig wären. Zuvor stellt er außerdem fest:
***
*„Das endgültige Urteil könnte erst gefällt werden, wenn alle Hauptteile der bewohnten Erde ein einziges Handelsgebiet bilden, denn erst dann wäre es unmöglich, dass andere Nationen mit unterschiedlichen Geldsystemen sich anschließen und die internationale Organisation verändern.“*
***
Jede neue Handelsbeziehung eröffnet die Möglichkeit, ein brandneues Geldgut einzuführen, das bisher nicht verwendet wurde. Wenn seine Qualitäten ein höheres Maß an Marktfähigkeit aufrechterhalten könnten, ist es möglich, dass sich die gesamte internationale Währungsordnung aufgrund seiner natürlichen Überlegenheit bei der Bewältigung der Funktionen des Geldes um ihn herum neu organisieren könnte.
Im [Bitcoin Standard ](https://aprycot.media/shop/der-bitcoin-standard/?ref=europeanbitcoiners.com)liefert Saifedean Ammous zahlreiche Argumente dafür, warum Gold dem Silber als Geldwert überlegen war, obwohl Mises nicht bereit oder nicht daran interessiert war, diesen Punkt zu diskutieren, und warum Bitcoin ein noch besserer Geldwert ist. Mises hat die Einführung von Bitcoin in die Weltwirtschaft zwar nicht mehr erlebt, aber seine Wirtschaftstheorie erklärt genau, warum Bitcoin an Wert gewinnen würde und warum es plausibel ist, dass die gesamte internationale Währungsordnung auf einen Bitcoin-Standard umgestellt wird. Er gibt auch den theoretischen Rahmen, um zu verstehen, warum Altcoins Bitcoin nicht allein durch ihre Eigenschaften ausstechen können. Sie müssen eine bessere Marktfähigkeit in Bezug auf Raum, Zeit und Größe bieten, um einen ausreichenden Vorteil gegenüber Bitcoin zu haben. Wie bereits an anderer Stelle beschrieben, ist dies einfach nicht gelungen, und nur Bitcoin bietet ein stark dezentralisiertes, überprüfbares und glaubwürdig knappes digitales Geldgut.
### Mises, der Marktmaximalist
Die Geldtheorie ist nicht der einzige Ort, an dem der Leser eine Art „Maximalismus" in Mises' Denken spüren kann. Sein gesamtes Werk läuft auf einen unverhohlenen Marktmaximalismus hinaus, der sich weigert, durch rigorose ökonomische Theorie und Analyse sozialistischen oder interventionistischen Argumenten nachzugeben.
Ein großartiges Beispiel für seine Verteidigung des freien Marktes findet sich in einem Vortrag aus dem Jahr 1950 mit dem Titel „[Die Mitte des Weges führt zum Sozialismus](https://mises.org/library/middle-road-leads-socialism?ref=europeanbitcoiners.com)". In dieser Vorlesung greift Mises Interventionisten an, die behaupten, eine Politik der „Mitte" zwischen den beiden Extremen Kapitalismus und Sozialismus zu favorisieren. Durch strategische Interventionen kann der Staat die Auswüchse beider Systeme verhindern.
Mises betrachtet Kapitalismus und Sozialismus jedoch als diametral entgegengesetzte und unvereinbare Organisationssysteme und nicht als ein Spektrum der Wohlstandsverteilung:
***
*„Der Konflikt der beiden Prinzipien ist unüberbrückbar und lässt keinen Kompromiss zu. Kontrolle ist unteilbar. Entweder entscheidet die Nachfrage der Verbraucher, die sich auf dem Markt manifestiert, für welche Zwecke und wie die Produktionsfaktoren eingesetzt werden sollen, oder der Staat kümmert sich um diese Angelegenheiten. Es gibt nichts, was den Gegensatz zwischen diesen beiden widersprüchlichen Prinzipien abmildern könnte. Sie schließen sich gegenseitig aus. Der Interventionismus ist kein goldener Mittelweg zwischen Kapitalismus und Sozialismus. Er ist der Entwurf für ein drittes System der wirtschaftlichen Organisation der Gesellschaft und muss als solches gewürdigt werden.“*
***
Dieses dritte System ist jedoch im Grunde nur ein längerer Marsch zum Sozialismus, indem es ein falsches Lippenbekenntnis zu Privateigentum und freier Marktwirtschaft ablegt. Auf jeden Eingriff, der stattfindet, müssen weitere folgen. Die Festsetzung eines Preises hier erfordert die Festsetzung eines anderen Preises dort, und so geht es die ganze Lieferkette entlang. Am Ende hat der Interventionismus die gesamte „Marktwirtschaft" im Würgegriff.
***
*Der Interventionismus kann nicht als ein Wirtschaftssystem betrachtet werden, das dazu bestimmt ist, zu bleiben. Er ist eine Methode zur Umwandlung des Kapitalismus in den Sozialismus in mehreren aufeinanderfolgenden Schritten. Damit unterscheidet er sich von den Bemühungen der Kommunisten, den Sozialismus auf einen Schlag zu verwirklichen. Der Unterschied bezieht sich nicht auf das letztendliche Ziel der politischen Bewegung, sondern vor allem auf die Taktik, die zur Erreichung des von beiden Gruppen angestrebten Ziels angewandt wird.*
***
Trotzdem sind selbst die meisten vermeintlichen Befürworter einer freien Marktwirtschaft in Wirklichkeit von interventionistischen Ideologien und Denkweisen durchdrungen, und ihre Strategien sind immer zum Scheitern und zu Kompromissen verurteilt.
***
*„Dies hat zur Folge, dass praktisch kaum etwas getan wird, um das System der Privatwirtschaft zu erhalten. Es gibt nur Mittelsmänner, die glauben, erfolgreich gewesen zu sein, wenn sie eine besonders ruinöse Maßnahme eine Zeit lang hinausgezögert haben. Sie sind immer auf dem Rückzug. Sie nehmen heute Maßnahmen in Kauf, die sie noch vor zehn oder zwanzig Jahren für undiskutabel gehalten hätten. In ein paar Jahren werden sie sich mit anderen Maßnahmen abfinden, die sie heute noch für undiskutabel halten. Was den totalitären Sozialismus verhindern kann, ist nur ein grundlegender Wandel der Ideologien.*\
\
*Was wir brauchen, ist weder Antisozialismus noch Antikommunismus, sondern eine offene Befürwortung des Systems, dem wir all den Wohlstand verdanken, der unser Zeitalter von den vergleichsweise beengten Verhältnissen vergangener Zeiten unterscheidet.“*
***
Mises nimmt kein Blatt vor den Mund, wenn er eine interventionistische Politik fordert, und es gibt viele Lehren, die Bitcoiner daraus ziehen können.
Erstens ist das Bitcoin-Netzwerk nicht einfach nur eine andere Art des Werttransfers als eine bestehende zentralisierte Lösung, eine Art PayPal 2.0. Es ist ein strukturell anderer Ansatz für das gesamte Problem der doppelten Ausgaben. „Blockchain, nicht Bitcoin" ist eine Mogelpackung, weil sie den Kern dessen, was Bitcoin einzigartig macht (Dezentralisierung, unabhängige Überprüfbarkeit usw.), wegnimmt, während sie behauptet, „die zugrundeliegende Technologie" zu nutzen, ähnlich wie ein nationalsozialistisches oder faschistisches Regime die staatliche Kontrolle über die Produktion übernehmen könnte, während es behauptet, für Privateigentum zu sein. Wenn du die Vorteile des Marktes nutzen willst, musst du tatsächlich einen Markt haben, und wenn du die Vorteile von Bitcoin nutzen willst, musst du Bitcoin tatsächlich nutzen.
Außerdem sollte die Dezentralisierung als binäres System betrachtet werden. Entweder ist ein System dezentralisiert, oder es ist dazu verdammt, zentralisiert zu werden, manchmal mit einem Hard Fork nach dem anderen (*vgl. Ethereum*). Bitcoin-Maximalisten werden regelmäßig als toxisch bezeichnet, weil sie entschlossen an bestimmten Netzwerkparametern festhalten, selbst wenn diese willkürlich oder trivial erscheinen. Ein ganzer[ Krieg über die Blockgröße](https://amzn.to/3OZX84g?ref=europeanbitcoiners.com) wurde um eine Begrenzung von 1 MB geführt. Die Zahl schien willkürlich und die Lösung trivial zu sein, aber die Bitcoiner weigerten sich, davon abzuweichen. Und warum? Eine höhere Blockgröße würde die Kosten für den Betrieb eines vollständigen Knotens (Full Node) erhöhen, der für eine unabhängige Validierung und Dezentralisierung notwendig ist. Ein Hard Fork würde einen vernichtenden Präzedenzfall schaffen und alle zukünftigen Ansprüche auf Abwärtskompatibilität gefährden, die für die Glaubwürdigkeit der Geldpolitik und die Fähigkeit der Nodes, sich vertrauensvoll mit dem Netzwerk zu synchronisieren, erforderlich sind. Die Blockkapazität stieg zwar an, aber nur, weil SegWit, dessen Vorteile weit über die bloße Verbesserung der Skalierung hinausgingen, über einen Soft Fork aktiviert werden konnte, sodass denjenigen, die dies nicht wollten, keine neuen Kosten auferlegt wurden.
Andere Projekte hingegen akzeptieren nicht, dass [die Kompromisse bei Bitcoin nicht wirklich willkürlich sind](https://medium.com/@nic__carter/bitcoin-bites-the-bullet-8005a2a62d29?ref=europeanbitcoiners.com). Sie bieten Turing-complete Smart Contracts, schnellere Blockzeiten, größere Blöcke oder alle möglichen anderen „Features" an. Die Features werden nicht mit demselben extrem konservativen Engagement für Sicherheit produziert wie Bitcoin und bedrohen oft die Fähigkeit, überhaupt einen vollständigen Knoten (*Full-Node*) zu betreiben. Nur bei Bitcoin kümmern sich die Leute darum, dass die Geldmenge tatsächlich überprüft werden kann. Mit der Zeit verlieren die Projekte, wenn sie überhaupt aufrechterhalten werden, jeden Anschein einer glaubwürdigen Dezentralisierung. Ethereum, das einst mit unaufhaltsamen Anwendungen und der Aussage „Code ist Gesetz" warb, erlebte den DAO-Hack und ist nach der Einführung von Proof-of-Stake (das von Natur aus zentralisierend ist) der OFAC-Zensur in unterschiedlichem Maße unterworfen.
Bitcoin akzeptiert nichts von alledem. Er beugt seine Regeln für niemanden. Bitcoiner wissen auch, dass das System gar kein Bitcoin mehr wäre, wenn die Regeln gebogen *würden*. Mises hilft uns zu verstehen, dass eine Politik des Mittelweges zu Shitcoinerei führt. Eine Währung ist entweder Bitcoin oder dazu verdammt, ein Shitcoin zu sein.
### Mises, der toxische Maximalist
Im Jahr 1947 fand in der Schweiz das erste Treffen der Mont Pèlerin Society statt. Bei diesem Treffen trafen sich viele der einflussreichsten Verfechter der freien Märkte und des klassischen Liberalismus, von Ludwig von Mises über F. A. Hayek bis hin zu Milton Friedman und vielen anderen, um darüber zu diskutieren, wie man die steigende Flut des Totalitarismus und seiner Wirtschaftsideologien durch die Förderung freier Märkte und des Privateigentums bekämpfen kann. Man könnte meinen, dass Mises genau in diese Diskussionen passt. Doch wie [Milton Friedman berichtete](https://reason.com/1995/06/01/best-of-both-worlds/?ref=europeanbitcoiners.com), kam es anders:
***
*„Die Geschichte, an die ich mich am besten erinnere, ereignete sich auf dem ersten Treffen in Mont Pèlerin, als \[Mises] aufstand und sagte: „Ihr seid alle ein Haufen Sozialisten." Wir diskutierten über die Einkommensverteilung und darüber, ob man progressive Einkommenssteuern haben sollte. Einige der Anwesenden vertraten die Ansicht, dass es eine Rechtfertigung dafür geben könnte.*\
\
*Eine andere Gelegenheit, die ebenso aufschlussreich ist: Fritz Machlup war ein Schüler von Mises, einer seiner treuesten Jünger. Bei einem der Treffen in Mont Pèlerin hielt Machlup einen Vortrag, in dem er, glaube ich, die Idee eines Goldstandards in Frage stellte; er sprach sich für freie Wechselkurse aus. Mises war so wütend, dass er drei Jahre lang nicht mit Machlup sprechen wollte. Einige Leute mussten die beiden wieder zusammenbringen. Es ist schwer zu verstehen; man kann es einigermaßen nachvollziehen, wenn man sich vor Augen führt, wie Menschen wie Mises in seinem Leben verfolgt wurden.“*
***
Wie bereits erwähnt, hielt Mises drei Jahre später einen Vortrag, in dem er eindrucksvoll erklärte, warum sie tatsächlich alle ein Haufen Sozialisten waren. Wer staatliche Eingriffe in die Einkommensverteilung akzeptiert, ist dem Sozialismus bereits verfallen, sobald genug Zeit vergangen ist. Mises war einfach nicht bereit, den sozialistischen Irrtümern, die er im Laufe seiner intellektuellen Karriere so akribisch aufgespießt hatte, Glauben zu schenken. Jörg Guido Hülsmann stellt in [Mises: *The Last Knight of Liberalism*](https://mises.org/library/mises-last-knight-liberalism-0?ref=europeanbitcoiners.com) fest, dass „Mises zwar in der Lage war, Sozialisten hoch zu schätzen, aber der Vorfall zeigte, dass er wenig Geduld mit Sozialisten hatte, die sich als Liberale ausgaben."
Doch Mises' giftiges Verhalten blieb nicht ohne Folgen. Laut Hülsmann:
***
*„Der Schlagabtausch zwischen Mises und seinen neoliberalen Gegnern prägte den Ton in der Mont Pèlerin Society für die kommenden Jahre.... Obwohl die Libertären um Mises eine kleine Minderheit waren, hatten sie die finanzielle Unterstützung der amerikanischen Hauptsponsoren wie dem Volker Fund, ohne die die Gesellschaft in jenen frühen Jahren schnell ausgestorben wäre. Solange Mises aktiv an den Treffen teilnahm, war es daher unmöglich, die technischen Details eines genehmigten staatlichen Interventionismus zu diskutieren. Das** **Laissez-faire hatte ein Comeback gefeiert. Es war zwar nicht die Mehrheitsmeinung, aber es war eine diskutierbare und diskutierte politische Option - zu viel für einige anfängliche Mitglieder wie Maurice Allais, der die Gesellschaft genau aus diesem Grund bald wieder verließ.“*
***
Indem er toxisch war, konnte Mises dazu beitragen, den Ton für eine wirklich *laissez-faire* Mont Pèlerin Society zu setzen, die ihrem erklärten Ziel gerecht werden konnte, und sie wählten F. A. Hayek zu ihrem Präsidenten. Er hatte keine Angst, Klartext zu reden, aber lautstark, sogar gegenüber Leuten, die vermutlich zu seinem „eigenen Team" gehörten. Ludwig von Mises war ein Mann, der seine Ideen ernst nahm und die Wahrheit noch viel ernster.
In seinen [Memoiren ](https://mises.org/library/memoirs?ref=europeanbitcoiners.com)schreibt Mises über seine Zeit in der österreichischen Handelskammer in den 1910er und 1920er Jahren:
***
*„Ich wurde manchmal beschuldigt, meinen Standpunkt zu schroff und unnachgiebig zu vertreten. Es wurde auch behauptet, dass ich mehr hätte erreichen können, wenn ich eine größere Kompromissbereitschaft gezeigt hätte.... Die Kritik war ungerechtfertigt; ich konnte nur dann effektiv sein, wenn ich die Dinge so darstellen konnte, wie sie mir erschienen. Wenn ich heute auf meine Arbeit bei der Handelskammer zurückblicke, bedauere ich nur meine Kompromissbereitschaft und nicht meine Unnachgiebigkeit.“*
***
In dieser Zeit trug sein Rat dazu bei, die Hyperinflation in Österreich aufzuhalten und ihre Auswirkungen im Vergleich zur Weimarer Republik abzuschwächen.
Bitcoiner werden von endlosen „Krypto-" und „Shitcoin"-Betrügern geplagt, die auf dem Rücken der innovativen Technologie und des wirtschaftlichen Erfolgs von Bitcoin reiten wollen. Den Bitcoinern wird gesagt, dass sie alle im selben Team sind. In den Augen der Öffentlichkeit sind sie das auch. Das Ergebnis ist eine getäuschte Öffentlichkeit, der zentralisierte Pump-and-Dump-Systeme und Rugpulls, Affen-Jpegs und Rube-Goldberg-Maschinen verkauft werden, die auf Schlagwörtern basieren und die Vorstellung vermitteln, dass sie in der gleichen Liga spielen wie die großartigste Geldtechnologie, die je geschaffen wurde. „Krypto" profitiert vom Erfolg von Bitcoin, und die Bekanntheit von Bitcoin sinkt mit den Misserfolgen von „Krypto". Doch wenn Bitcoiner die Unterschiede ansprechen und diese Projekte ablehnen, die sie uninteressant oder sogar verabscheuungswürdig finden, wird das als schädlich angesehen. Den Bitcoinern schadet das nicht, denn sie können weiter (Satoshis) stapeln und bauen, aber die Menschen, die unter Fiat-Regimen leben müssen, leiden darunter, dass ihnen kein Weg zu Freiheit und Wohlstand gezeigt wird.
Abgesehen davon, dass das Geld des Einzelnen in Gefahr ist, kann die Offenheit für Shitcoins auch Veränderungen im Netzwerk fördern, die die Dezentralisierung beeinträchtigen. Wenn es Unterstützung für einen Shitcoin gibt, der auf einem bestimmten Merkmal basiert, warum sollte das Merkmal dann nicht in Bitcoin existieren? Wenn es tatsächlich eine Tendenz zu einer einzigen Währung gibt, ist die Förderung einer alternativen Kryptowährung selbst ein Angriff auf das Potenzial von Bitcoin. Wirtschaft und Technik sind mit gnadenlosen Konsequenzen konfrontiert. Eine falsche Abfolge von Schritten kann zu absoluter Verwüstung führen. Bitcoiner nehmen das sehr ernst und machen keinen Hehl daraus, dass sie diese Konsequenzen fürchten. Wenn sie das tun, lehnen sie ganze unternehmerische Vorhaben ab und stellen ihre gesamte Einnahmequelle in Frage. Das ist toxisch.
Bitcoiners sollten immer den Mut haben, Mises zu zitieren und jedem zu sagen: „Ihr seid alle ein Haufen Shitcoiner."
### Der aufgehende Stern von Mises
Obwohl er aus einer adligen Familie stammte und in Österreich hohe Positionen innehatte, hatte Mises, als er auf der Flucht vor den Nazis in die Vereinigten Staaten emigrierte, nur wenige Möglichkeiten. Bis zu seiner Pensionierung war er „Gastprofessor" an der New York University. Er arbeitete im Grunde genommen im stillen Kämmerlein und unterrichtete hauptsächlich in seinen inzwischen berühmten informellen Seminaren, an denen auch Murray Rothbard und andere teilnahmen. Er benötigte die Unterstützung verschiedener philanthropischer Fonds. Hinzu kam, dass die Wirtschaftswissenschaften, wie alle Sozialwissenschaften, dem Szientismus und der Technokratie erlegen waren, so dass Mises' strenge logisch-deduktive Methoden im Vergleich zu mathematischen Formeln und statistischen Modellen als altmodisch galten. Der Goldstandard wurde zugunsten eines Fiat-Systems abgeschafft, und als Mises starb, hatte der US-Dollar keinerlei Verbindung mehr zu Edelmetallen oder realen Ersparnissen, so dass die Geldpolitik allein den Launen der Politik überlassen blieb.
Es gab allen Grund, Ludwig von Mises völlig in Vergessenheit geraten zu lassen. Doch seine Schüler, wie Murray Rothbard, hielten die österreichische Schule am Leben. Im Jahr 1982 wurde das Ludwig von Mises Institute von Rothbard und Lew Rockwell gegründet und von Dr. Ron Paul finanziert (beide wurden von ihren Kritikern als „toxisch" bezeichnet). Dr. Paul selbst wurde zu einem legendären Verfechter der Ideen von Mises und anderen, sowohl im Kongress als auch im Präsidentschaftswahlkampf. In letzterem machte Dr. Paul die von der Federal Reserve verursachte wirtschaftliche Zerstörung zu einem zentralen Bestandteil seines Programms und zum ersten Mal seit Jahrzehnten zu einem wichtigen Thema in der politischen Debatte, was den Diskurs danach für immer veränderte.
Es ist also kein Wunder, dass viele Menschen, die sich als erste für Bitcoin begeisterten, treue Schüler von Mises waren und dass seine Ideen mit dem Wachstum von Bitcoin noch mehr an Bedeutung gewonnen haben. Seine rigorose Erläuterung der Wahrheiten des Wirtschaftsrechts, die auf Subjektivismus, Marginalismus und methodologischem Individualismus beruht, gab den Menschen den Rahmen, um zu verstehen, wie Bitcoin die Geldpolitik veranschaulicht, die zu Frieden, Wohlstand und Freiheit führt. Anstatt irrelevant zu werden, ist Mises heute wichtiger denn je. Wie Ron Paul bemerkte: „[Wir sind jetzt alle Österreicher](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=467hCNuGvNw\&ref=europeanbitcoiners.com)."
### Fazit
Das Toxische liegt im Auge des Betrachters oder des Bagholders. Die Wirtschaftswissenschaft ist, wie jedes Streben nach Wahrheit, kein Beliebtheitswettbewerb, und die Wahrheit wird immer von denen bekämpft werden, deren Geschäft und Status von der Verbreitung von Irrtümern und Unwahrheiten abhängt.\
\
Ludwig von Mises stand fest zu seinen gründlichen Analysen der Wirtschaftswissenschaften und des klassischen Liberalismus und scheute sich nicht, das zu verteidigen, was er für wahr hielt, selbst auf Kosten von Prestige und Popularität. Heute steht er weit über fast jedem anderen Sozialwissenschaftler des 20. Jahrhunderts.
Ich habe an anderer Stelle über [Memes und Rhetorik ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBAuHv5cPl8\&ref=europeanbitcoiners.com)gesprochen, und es gibt viel zu diskutieren über bestimmte Strategien und ihre Wirksamkeit. Aber vor allem muss jede Strategie die Wahrheit in den Mittelpunkt stellen. Die Wahrheit ist zeitlos, so dass ihre Relevanz nicht auf kurzfristige Popularität beschränkt ist. Wenn dies der Fall ist, ist der Vorwurf der „Toxizität" entweder eine Aufforderung zur Verbesserung oder ein Ehrenzeichen dafür, dass man trotz aller Widrigkeiten für die Wahrheit einsteht. Wie das Motto von Ludwig von Mises schon sagte: *tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito.* Weiche dem Bösen nicht, trete ihm umso mutiger entgegen.
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@ da0b9bc3:4e30a4a9
2025-02-24 06:35:50
Hello Stackers!
Welcome on into the ~Music Corner of the Saloon!
A place where we Talk Music. Share Tracks. Zap Sats.
So stay a while and listen.
🚨Don't forget to check out the pinned items in the territory homepage! You can always find the latest weeklies there!🚨
🚨Subscribe to the territory to ensure you never miss a post! 🚨
originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/895451
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@ 583e5ea1:b44effdd
2025-02-24 06:05:24
Today, we remember and pay tribute to Parag Kumar Das, a fearless journalist and human rights activist from Assam, on what would have been his 64th birthday. Though he's no longer with us, his legacy lives on, inspiring generations to continue fighting for justice and human rights.
Das's journey as a journalist began in the 1990s, writing for local newspapers in Assam. However, he soon realized that true power lies not in reporting events, but in giving voice to the voiceless and holding those in power accountable. This marked the beginning of his journey as a human rights activist.
Throughout his career, Das criticized state-sponsored violence, human rights abuses, and social injustices. His writings shed light on pressing issues in Assam, including extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, and internally displaced persons. He relentlessly campaigned against the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA), highlighting the need for its repeal.
Das faced harassment, intimidation, and physical attacks, but these challenges strengthened his resolve. He received several awards, including the prestigious 'Scoop' Award for Investigative Journalism. However, for Das, the true reward lay in knowing his work made a tangible difference in people's lives.
As we reflect on his remarkable journey, we're reminded that the pen is mightier than the sword, and voices of truth and justice will always prevail. We salute Parag Kumar Das, a champion of human rights in Assam, on his 64th birthday. His courage, conviction, and commitment to justice continue to inspire us.
Though Das was assassinated by SULFA in 1996, his memory lives on, and his work continues to inspire human rights activists in Assam and beyond.
With love and respect on your 64th birthday, sir! May your courage, conviction and commitment to justice continue to inspire generations to come. We salute you, on this special day, and always. 🙏🏼
For reference, here is the Wikipedia article about him: [Parag Kumar Das]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parag_Kumar_Das)
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@ 57d1a264:69f1fee1
2025-02-24 04:10:33
As your involvement in open source design increases, you’ll face challenges that go beyond basic UI work. From creating scalable design systems to mentoring new contributors, these advanced areas require strategic thinking, collaboration, and leadership.
This chapter dives into these complexities, helping you handle real-world situations while continuing to grow as a designer.
- Championing Design Initiatives
- Creating and Maintaining Design Systems
- Handling Complex Design Challenges
- Conducting In-Depth User Research
- Balancing Open Source Work with Other Commitments
- Navigating Project Dynamics
-0 Mentoring New Designers
Read more:
https://opendesign.guide/10-advanced-topics
```
#design #nostrdesign #bitcoindesign #ln #grownostr #asknostr #zap #btc #bitcoin #nostr #cashu
```
originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/895377
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@ b8851a06:9b120ba1
2025-02-24 02:02:32
The French fiscal catastrophe is unfolding exactly as Austrian economists predicted. Government intervention breeds more intervention, trapping the economy in a death spiral of debt, deficits, and monetary debasement.
France’s public debt has surged to 111% of GDP in 2023, with projections showing 119% by 2029. The government’s much-touted €60 billion “budget effort” is a political charade—by 2025, the deficit will still exceed 5.4% of GDP. To stabilize its finances, France would need €120 billion in permanent savings—an impossible task in a system where political survival depends on endless spending.
## The Political Crisis: A System Losing Legitimacy
Economic crises create political ones. In December 2024, Prime Minister Barnier was ousted over austerity measures, replaced by Bayrou—a desperate attempt to calm markets. But leadership changes won’t fix the fundamental issue: France is ungovernable under its current fiscal trajectory.
Every attempt to “fix” the problem—more regulation, more spending, more monetary manipulation—only worsens the crisis. Political chaos is a symptom of economic insolvency.
## The ECB’s Stealth Bailout: Germany’s Growing Revolt
France is functionally bankrupt, but the ECB is quietly shifting the burden onto German savers through Target2 claims and monetary expansion. This amounts to a silent wealth transfer—bailing out Paris at Berlin’s expense.
The German public is noticing. Support for the AfD’s “Dexit” movement is rising, as voters realize they are being forced to subsidize failing economies. The eurozone’s fault lines are deepening.
## The Likely Scenarios: What Comes Next?
Based on current conditions, three major outcomes are most probable:
### Scenario 1: ECB “Muddles Through”
The ECB takes a “too little, too late” approach, avoiding decisive action while failing to restore confidence. This leads to:
• Wider French bond spreads as investors demand higher yields
• Weakened ECB credibility, as markets lose faith in its ability to contain the crisis
• Prolonged volatility without addressing the fundamental debt problem
### Scenario 2: IMF/ESM Bailout
France is forced into a formal bailout via the IMF and European Stability Mechanism (ESM). This would trigger:
* Harsh austerity measures, politically toxic in a nation that riots over pension reforms
* Severe political fallout, as both left and right-wing factions resist external control
* A crisis within the ECB itself, as its French president faces backlash for “bailing out his own country”
* Northern European pushback, with the German Bundestag and creditor states reluctant to approve another bailout
### Scenario 3: Communications Crisis
A severe market panic caused by ECB miscommunication leads to:
* A European-style “Taper Tantrum”, triggering a selloff in French bonds
* Spreads widening rapidly, forcing emergency interventions
* Loss of market confidence, accelerating capital flight
* Potential contagion, pulling in weaker Eurozone economies
The remaining probability accounts for more moderate scenarios, where France manages to delay disaster through temporary measures. But at this level of debt and deficit spending, delay is the best-case scenario—not resolution.
## The Endgame: Default or Hyperinflation?
France’s pension system alone is set to bleed €30 billion annually by 2045. The debt load is unsustainable, the political will to cut spending is nonexistent, and the ECB’s ability to print euros without consequence is rapidly eroding.
#### There are only two ways this ends:
* Massive defaults, triggering economic and social chaos.
* Hyperinflationary money printing, destroying savings and purchasing power.
#### Ludwig von Mises warned about this nearly a century ago:
“The ultimate outcome of credit expansion is either a depression brought about by the voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or a catastrophe of the currency system involved.”
France—and the entire euro system—has reached this fork in the road. The only question left is: Will they choose ruin now, or ruin later?
Mises was right. And in the end, economic reality always wins. The only choice left is whether you want to be a victim—or prepared.
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@ d34e832d:383f78d0
2025-02-24 01:22:32
## **age** - Simple, modern, and secure file encryption.
## SYNOPSIS
```bash
age [--encrypt] (-r RECIPIENT | -R PATH)... [--armor] [-o OUTPUT] [INPUT]
age [--encrypt] --passphrase [--armor] [-o OUTPUT] [INPUT]
age --decrypt [-i PATH | -j PLUGIN]... [-o OUTPUT] [INPUT]
```
The **age** tool provides a robust solution for encrypting and decrypting files. It simplifies the encryption process while ensuring strong security through modern cryptographic standards. **age** primarily focuses on:
- Encrypting data to specific recipients or using passphrases.
- Decrypting data based on available private keys or passphrases.
- Supports both binary and ASCII armored (Base64-encoded) outputs.
- A compact, secure design suitable for integration into diverse environments.
- **RECIPIENTS**: Public keys or identities to which a file is encrypted. Each recipient can decrypt the file with their corresponding private key.
- **IDENTITIES**: Private keys that allow decryption of files encrypted to corresponding recipients.
- **Passphrase**: A user-defined secret key used to encrypt or decrypt data interactively, typically used when specific recipient identities are not available.
### Encryption Process:
Files are encrypted using public keys or passphrases. The `-r` option encrypts the file to specific recipients, whereas the `--passphrase` option allows encryption using a passphrase. In the absence of these options, **age** will prompt the user for the necessary inputs interactively.
### Decryption Process:
Decryption is automatically handled by **age** based on the format of the encrypted file. If the file is encrypted with a passphrase, **age** will request the passphrase interactively. Alternatively, it will use the private key specified by the `-i` option to decrypt the file.
### Binary and ASCII Output:
The default output for **age** is binary, which is suitable for storage and transmission. However, when using the `--armor` option, the encrypted file is encoded into a text format that is easy to handle in text-based systems.
---
## OPTIONS
### General Options:
- `-o, --output=OUTPUT`: Directs the encrypted or decrypted content to the specified OUTPUT file. If OUTPUT already exists, it is overwritten. In the case of encryption without `--armor`, the tool refuses to output binary to a TTY.
- `--version`: Displays the **age** version and exits.
### Encryption Options:
- `-e, --encrypt`: Default mode for encrypting files. Specifies that the input file should be encrypted.
- `-r, --recipient=RECIPIENT`: Encrypts to the recipient's public key, which can be a native X25519 key or an SSH key. This option may be repeated to encrypt for multiple recipients.
- `-R, --recipients-file=PATH`: Encrypts for recipients listed in a file, each recipient specified on a new line. Lines starting with `#` are treated as comments. If `PATH` is `-`, recipients are read from standard input.
- `-p, --passphrase`: Encrypts the file with a passphrase. The passphrase is requested interactively, and **age** offers an option to auto-generate a secure passphrase. This mode cannot be combined with other recipient options.
- `--armor`: Encrypts the output to an ASCII "armored" encoding (strict Base64). This makes it more suitable for text environments.
- `-i, --identity=PATH`: Specifies the path to the private key(s) that correspond to the recipients. Used to generate a file compatible with recipient encryption, allowing seamless encryption to private keys.
- `-j PLUGIN`: Specifies the use of a plugin for encryption, typically used for non-standard encryption schemes.
### Decryption Options:
- `-d, --decrypt`: Decrypts the specified INPUT file. If the file is passphrase-encrypted, the passphrase is automatically detected and requested interactively.
- `-i, --identity=PATH`: Specifies the private key file used for decryption. This can be a native age private key, an SSH private key, or a passphrase-protected identity file. The file path can also be `-` to read from standard input.
- `-j PLUGIN`: Decrypts using a plugin, similar to how the plugin is used in encryption. The plugin should contain no data-specific encryption information.
### Plugins:
**age** supports the use of plugins to extend its encryption and decryption functionality. A plugin is used when encryption or decryption requires a non-standard method. The plugin executes specific cryptographic operations as defined by the plugin.
---
## VARIOUS EXAMPLES
### 1. Encrypt a file to a recipient using a native X25519 key:
```bash
age -r age1ql3z7hjy54pw3hyww5ayyfg7zqgvc7w3j2elw8zmrj2kg5sfn9aqmcac8p file.txt > file.txt.age
```
### 2. Encrypt a file to multiple recipients:
```bash
age -o file.txt.age -r age1ql3z7hjy54pw3hyww5ayyfg7zqgvc7w3j2elw8zmrj2kg5sfn9aqmcac8p \
-r age1lggyhqrw2nlhcxprm67z43rta597azn8gknawjehu9d9dl0jq3yqqvfafg file.txt
```
### 3. Encrypt to recipients listed in a file:
```bash
cat > recipients.txt
# Alice
age1ql3z7hjy54pw3hyww5ayyfg7zqgvc7w3j2elw8zmrj2kg5sfn9aqmcac8p
# Bob
age1lggyhqrw2nlhcxprm67z43rta597azn8gknawjehu9d9dl0jq3yqqvfafg
age -R recipients.txt file.txt > file.txt.age
```
### 4. Encrypt and decrypt a file with a passphrase:
```bash
# Encrypt with a passphrase
age -p secrets.txt > secrets.txt.age
Enter passphrase (leave empty to autogenerate a secure one):
Using the autogenerated passphrase "release-response-step-brand-wrap-ankle-pair-unusual-sword-train".
# Decrypt with the same passphrase
age -d secrets.txt.age > secrets.txt
Enter passphrase:
```
### 5. Encrypt and decrypt with a passphrase-protected identity file:
```bash
# Generate a passphrase-protected identity file
age-keygen | age -p > key.age
Enter passphrase (leave empty to autogenerate a secure one):
Using the autogenerated passphrase "hip-roast-boring-snake-mention-east-wasp-honey-input-actress".
# Encrypt using the identity
age -r age1yhm4gctwfmrpz87tdslm550wrx6m79y9f2hdzt0lndjnehwj0ukqrjpyx5 secrets.txt > secrets.txt.age
# Decrypt using the identity file
age -d -i key.age secrets.txt.age > secrets.txt
Enter passphrase for identity file "key.age":
```
---
## EXIT STATUS
- `0`: Encryption or decryption was successful.
- `1`: An error occurred during the operation.
---
## BACKWARDS COMPATIBILITY
Files encrypted with a stable version of **age** will be compatible with any later version of the tool. When decrypting older files, **age** might provide a flag to force the operation if the operation poses a security risk.
---
The **age** tool is designed with security and simplicity in mind. It uses strong encryption methods to ensure that your files are protected against unauthorized access, with flexibility in how encryption keys are managed and applied.
[Age Github Repo](https://github.com/FiloSottile/age?tab=readme-ov-file)
-
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@ b8851a06:9b120ba1
2025-02-23 23:41:06
> Something stinks in the crypto markets, and it’s not just OpenSea’s suspicious trading activity.
The recent regulatory pivot in Washington—driven by the Trump administration’s aggressive push to make the U.S. “the world’s crypto capital”—has set the stage for a wave of unchecked fraud. OpenSea’s sudden regulatory relief and strategic transformation are just the beginning.
## The SEC’s Curious Retreat
Let’s start with the smoking gun: the SEC was investigating OpenSea for unregistered securities violations, even issuing a Wells notice in August 2024. Then, in a complete reversal, they dropped the case without explanation. This wasn’t some random bureaucratic oversight—it happened right after Trump took office.
The timing is too perfect. His administration wasted no time signaling its pro-crypto stance, and the SEC, once an enforcer, is now rolling over like a neutered watchdog.
> The message? As long as you’re playing the “crypto-bro” game, the rules don’t apply.
## OpenSea’s Convenient Pivot
With the regulatory threat gone, OpenSea immediately rebranded itself—not just as an NFT marketplace but a full-blown token trading platform. Here’s what they did:
* Launched OS2, a rebuilt exchange expanding into token trading.
* Dropped the SEA token on February 13, 2025—perfectly timed with the regulatory climate shift.
* Slashed fees to near zero to attract volume and dominate the market.
This wasn’t just a business move—it was a power play. OpenSea knew that under the previous administration, tokenizing its platform might have triggered another securities probe. But under Trump’s SEC? It’s open season.
## Wash Trading and Market Manipulation
And it worked. The SEA token launch sent OpenSea’s market share skyrocketing from 25.5% to 71.5% in just four weeks. Daily trading volume exploded from $3.47 million to $17.4 million—but the numbers don’t add up. The surge was so artificial that OpenSea had to suspend its XP-based incentives system after accusations of wash trading flooded in.
### Let’s be clear: this isn’t real market growth. This is manipulation.
By incentivizing rapid-fire, circular trading, OpenSea created the illusion of demand. The goal? Pump the SEA token, dominate competitors, and make insiders rich—at the expense of everyday traders.
## Who’s Really Benefiting?
The financials paint a grim picture. #Coatue Management, once a major investor, slashed OpenSea’s valuation from $13.3 billion to just $1.4 billion. Trading volume has collapsed from its $5 billion peak to just $190 million per month. And yet, insiders are doubling down.
Consider these strategic moves:
* OpenSea relocated from New York to Miami, aligning with Florida’s looser regulatory environment.
* It established a foundation in the Cayman Islands—a classic move for dodging scrutiny.
* It’s benefiting from a hands-off #SEC, which has abandoned enforcement actions under the new administration.
This is the new crypto economy: a lawless Wild West where the biggest players game the system while retail traders foot the bill.
## What Comes Next?
With #Trump’s administration actively reshaping crypto regulation, OpenSea is the first of many companies to exploit this new reality. We’re entering an era where politically connected #crypto firms will enjoy total freedom to manipulate markets, while ordinary investors will be left holding the bag.
### The lesson? If you’re not on the inside, you’re the exit liquidity.
This isn’t just about #OpenSea. It’s about a government-sanctioned crypto casino, where fraud is no longer the exception—it seems to be the business model.
I really hope am wrong on this one #nostr.
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@ 629c4a12:f822cc1a
2025-02-23 21:50:25
Treasury bonds, once considered the gold standard for conservative investments, have struggled to maintain their appeal in an era of low yields and rising inflation. Governments face mounting pressure to rethink their traditional treasury instruments, especially the long duration bonds. Enter Bitcoin—a neutral, decentralized, scarce, and globally recognized asset. By integrating Bitcoin into treasury bonds, governments have a unique opportunity to breathe new life into their sovereign debt markets and attract a new wave of investors.
### Problem: The decline of long-duration sovereign bonds
Around the world, governments are grappling with declining investor confidence in their long-term debt instruments. Major institutional investors have been reducing their exposure to long-dated sovereign bonds due to rising inflation, unsustainable debt levels, and uncertainty around global monetary policies.
In Europe, countries like Italy and Greece have faced heightened yield spreads, reflecting investor wariness over fiscal sustainability. In Japan, long-term government bonds have seen weak demand, despite interventions by the Bank of Japan to stabilize yields. Emerging markets, too, face significant challenges, with higher borrowing costs and limited foreign investor participation in their sovereign bond markets.
Globally, yields on long-term sovereign bonds have risen as investors demand higher compensation for the perceived risks. This inverse relationship between yields and bond prices highlights a broader issue: governments are finding it increasingly difficult to issue long-term debt at sustainable costs.
### Key factors contributing to this global decline include:
* **Persistent inflation:** Eroding the purchasing power of fixed-income returns across global markets.
* **Increased government borrowing:** Leading to an oversupply of bonds in developed and emerging economies alike.
* **Monetary policy uncertainty:** Central bank actions in response to inflation and slowing economic growth have added volatility to bond markets.
As a result, global investors are increasingly favoring short-term bonds or alternative assets, leaving long-term sovereign bonds struggling to attract sufficient demand.
Solution: Bitcoin as collateral for treasury bonds
Governments can collateralize 10% of their 10-year and 30-year treasury bond offerings with Bitcoin. In practice, this means a portion of the bond’s value would be backed by Bitcoin reserves held securely by the issuing government or a trusted custodian. Investors would gain exposure not only to the guaranteed yield of the bond but also to the potential upside of Bitcoin’s price appreciation.
To sweeten the deal, governments could offer tax-free capital gains on any Bitcoin price appreciation realized through this instrument. This would make Bitcoin-backed treasury bonds not only a conservative, yield-generating investment but also a potentially lucrative one.
### Why this matters for governments
* **Attracting a new investor class:** Bitcoin has a growing base of institutional and retail investors. A Bitcoin-collateralized bond could attract Bitcoin enthusiasts and institutional investors seeking compliant exposure to Bitcoin.
* **Strengthening national bitcoin reserves:** By holding Bitcoin as collateral, governments would gradually build Bitcoin reserves, which could act as a hedge against currency devaluation and macroeconomic instability.
* **Enhancing bond appeal in inflationary environments:** In inflationary periods, traditional bonds struggle to offer real returns. Bitcoin’s historical performance as an inflation hedge could help offset this concern.
* **Diversifying reserve assets:** Bitcoin offers a unique diversification benefit compared to traditional reserve assets like gold and foreign currencies.
### Why this matters for investors
* **Dual upside potential:** Investors not only gain the fixed yield of a treasury bond but also the upside of Bitcoin price appreciation.
* **Tax-gree gains on Bitcoin exposure:** The tax exemption on Bitcoin gains would be a significant incentive for investors looking for capital-efficient exposure to Bitcoin.
* **Low-risk Bitcoin exposure:** For more conservative investors, Bitcoin-backed bonds offer a lower-risk pathway to Bitcoin exposure compared to direct ownership.
### Why focus on 10-Year and 30-year treasuries?
Long-term treasuries, such as 10-year and 30-year bonds, are ideal candidates for Bitcoin collateralization due to their extended maturity periods. These longer timelines allow Bitcoin’s historical price appreciation to play a more significant role in generating value for investors. Additionally, they align better with Bitcoin’s long-term investment thesis, making them more attractive to investors seeking both yield and potential asset growth.
Short-term treasuries, on the other hand, are less suited for Bitcoin collateralization due to Bitcoin’s volatility and shorter investment horizons.
Implementation and challenges
While the concept is innovative, there are several practical and regulatory challenges:
* **Custody and Security:** Governments must establish secure custody solutions for Bitcoin reserves.
* **Volatility Management:** Bitcoin’s price volatility could introduce risk into the bond’s collateral structure.
* **Regulatory Clarity:** Clear regulatory frameworks would need to be established to govern these hybrid financial instruments.
However, with the right infrastructure and governance, these challenges are far from insurmountable.
A win-win opportunity
By collateralizing 10-year and 30-year treasury bonds with Bitcoin, governments around the world can tap into the growing Bitcoin economy, attract a new wave of global investors, and future-proof their financial strategies. Investors, on the other hand, gain access to a secure, regulated, and potentially lucrative investment vehicle.
In a rapidly changing financial landscape, integrating Bitcoin into long-term sovereign bonds is not just an opportunity—it’s a strategic imperative. Governments that act decisively could position themselves at the forefront of a new era in global sovereign finance.
-
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@ 629c4a12:f822cc1a
2025-02-23 21:33:31
I’ve always been drawn to minimalism. There’s a certain peace that comes from stripping away the unnecessary, decluttering both physical and mental spaces. Yet, when it comes to finances, I’ve found myself tangled in complexity. As an ‘optimizer,’ I spend an inordinate amount of time thinking about investments, managing risk, and endlessly tinkering with my portfolio. This preoccupation contradicts the minimalist principles I try to live by.
It seems absurd to me that the financial world has become so complicated that we need money managers to simply preserve the value of our money. If investing is so intricate that the average person must hire professionals just to preserve (let alone grow) the value of their savings, then something is fundamentally wrong.
For the past five years, I’ve immersed myself in the history and mechanics of financial systems. The deeper I delved, the clearer it became: Bitcoin is a force of minimalism in an increasingly financialized and complex world.
### The Clutter of Modern Finance
Our financial system has become bloated with complexity. The hyper-securitization of assets has created an environment filled with financial clutter. Derivatives, for example, represent layers upon layers of financial engineering, often so convoluted that even experts struggle to understand them fully.
More troubling is the way nearly everything of value has been financialized. Real estate and art, two things that should embody personal value and cultural significance, have been transformed into mere asset classes. They are bought, sold, and speculated upon not for their intrinsic qualities but as instruments in the game of wealth preservation.
But why has this happened? It’s actually quite simple: our money is constantly losing value. The dollar, for example, debases at a rate of around 7% per year. Holding cash feels like holding melting ice, so it’s only natural for people to seek out scarce assets to preserve their wealth.
The Never-Ending Game of Diversification
This pursuit of scarce assets sets off a complex game—a game that forces people to diversify endlessly:
* Equities
* Bonds
* Real Estate
* Commodities
* Art
* Collectibles
We’re told to spread our investments across these asset classes to mitigate risk and preserve our hard-earned money. Those who can afford to hire money managers generally fare better in this game, as they have access to expertise and strategies designed to navigate this maze of complexity.
Ironically, this system creates an incentive for more complexity. The more convoluted the financial landscape becomes, the more we need money managers, and the more entrenched this cycle of financialization and securitization becomes. It’s a force of ever-increasing entropy—quite the opposite of minimalism.
### Bitcoin: Simplicity in a Complex World
In the midst of this financial chaos, Bitcoin emerges as a beacon of simplicity. It offers a way out of the clutter, a chance to reclaim financial minimalism. Bitcoin embodies the concept of scarcity with a rare kind of perfection: there will only ever be 21 million Bitcoins. No more.
This scarcity makes Bitcoin the perfect savings technology. Unlike traditional currencies, no one can debase your holdings. You don’t need to chase after real estate, art, or other assets to preserve your wealth. You don’t need to constantly diversify and rebalance a portfolio to stay ahead of inflation. Bitcoin’s scarcity gives you a way to hold your wealth securely, without the need for endless tinkering.
I’m not blind to Bitcoin’s short-term price volatility. However, it’s crucial to understand that we’re still in the early stages of adoption. As more people embrace this perfect form of scarcity, Bitcoin’s qualities as savings technology will express itself.
Bitcoin has the potential to de-financialize the housing market. It can de-financialize art.
Ultimately, Bitcoin has the power to replace those aspects of our lives that currently serve as proxies for scarcity.
### A Minimalist Approach to Wealth
Bitcoin allows us to step off the treadmill of constant financial optimization. It offers a simpler way to safeguard the fruits of our labor. Rather than spending our time, energy, and attention on navigating a complex financial system, we can focus on what truly matters: living a meaningful life.
By embracing Bitcoin, we embrace a minimalist approach to wealth. We reject the idea that we must play a never-ending game of diversification to maintain our standard of living. Instead, we adopt a simple, elegant solution that aligns with the principles of minimalism.
### Conclusion
In a world that grows more financially cluttered by the day, Bitcoin stands as a path to financial minimalism. It frees us from the complexities of traditional finance, allowing us to preserve our wealth without the need for constant vigilance and management.
By embodying scarcity and simplicity, Bitcoin gives us a way to reclaim our time and energy. It’s not just a financial tool; it’s a way to simplify our lives, to step back from the chaos, and to focus on what truly matters
-
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@ c11cf5f8:4928464d
2025-02-23 20:42:52
Let's hear some of your latest #Bitcoin purchases, feel free to include links to the #shops or #merchants you bought from too. Any good #deal we should know about?
If you missed our last thread, [here](https://stacker.news/items/887305/r/AG) are some of the items stackers recently spent and #zap #sats on.
originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/895134
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@ 378562cd:a6fc6773
2025-02-23 20:41:59
Social media platforms like Facebook and X (formerly Twitter) have long dominated online communication. However, many people are looking for alternatives due to increasing censorship, algorithmic manipulation, and corporate control over user data. One of the most promising new protocols I have found is Nostr, a decentralized and open-source alternative to traditional social media. But how does Nostr compare, and why should you consider making the switch? If you're reading this, presumably, you already have made the switch, but share this with friends if you like. Let’s dive in.
The Fundamental Differences Between Nostr and Traditional Social Media
1. Decentralization vs. Centralization
Facebook and X are owned and operated by massive corporations that control everything from content moderation to algorithmic visibility. Your posts, followers, and interactions are at the mercy of the company's policies and changes.
Nostr: No single entity owns Nostr. It operates as a protocol where anyone can run a relay (a server that transmits messages). Users are not tied to a single company or platform, ensuring freedom from corporate control.
2. Censorship Resistance
Facebook & X: Heavily moderate content, often removing posts or banning accounts based on internal policies, government pressure, or **advertiser** demands.
Nostr: Built to resist censorship. Since users publish to multiple relays, blocking content on one relay does not remove it from others. You control where your messages are sent, not a centralized authority.
3. User Ownership and Privacy
Facebook & X: Your data is stored on corporate servers and often sold to advertisers. You don’t truly own your content or connections.
Nostr: Users control their private keys, which function like cryptographic signatures. Your identity is yours alone, and no company can take it away.
4. Algorithm-Free Experience
Facebook & X: Content is curated by algorithms that determine what you see based on engagement metrics, often promoting divisive or viral content over meaningful conversations.
Nostr: No forced algorithms. You decide which relays to use and what content to follow. Your feed remains chronological and free from corporate influence.
Pros and Cons of Nostr
✅ Pros:
True freedom of speech: No corporate moderation, allowing open discussion.
User-owned identity: You control your account with a cryptographic key.
No ads or tracking: Your data isn’t harvested or sold to advertisers.
Resilient against shutdowns: Multiple relays ensure content persists even if one relay goes offline.
Customizable experience: Choose the relays and clients that best suit your needs.
❌ Cons (If Any):
Early-stage adoption: Not as many users as Facebook or X (yet!).
Technical learning curve: Requires setting up keys and understanding relays, though improving rapidly.
Lack of centralized moderation: While this is a pro for free speech, it can also mean exposure to spam or undesirable content if it is not filtered properly. However, they are developing hidden or block features to help control your feeds. I don't have a lot of worries here. To be perfectly honest, it seems like a better class of people come here.
Why Should You Leave Facebook and Join Nostr?
If you’re tired of algorithmic manipulation, invasive tracking, and corporate censorship, Nostr offers a fresh start. It’s a place where your voice truly belongs to you, and a centralized authority cannot control your connections.
Yes, it may take some time to adjust to using Nostr, but the benefits far outweigh the minor learning curve. If you value digital freedom, privacy, and resistance to censorship, now is the perfect time to explore the future of social networking.
How to Get Your Friends to Leave Corporate Social Media and Join Nostr
Switching to Nostr is one thing, but convincing your friends to make the leap can be challenging. Here are some practical ways to help them transition:
Explain the benefits: Many people don’t realize how much control corporations have over their online experience. Share this article and highlight the key points.
Make it easy: Walk them through setting up a Nostr account, generating a private key, and connecting to relays.
Show them the community: Introduce them to active Nostr users, groups, and discussions to make the transition feel worthwhile.
Lead by example: Use Nostr consistently and post compelling content that makes it appealing to your friends.
Keep the conversation going. As more people join, Nostr will become even more engaging, making it a true alternative to corporate-controlled platforms.
-
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@ badc29af:a92bd071
2025-02-23 20:34:58
**Part I: The First Hour (Blocks 694,200–694,205)**
**Block 694,200: The Coder**\
Sarah Chen sat hunched over her keyboard in her San Francisco apartment, the fog smudging her window. Debugging a fintech app, she watched block 694,200 confirm on the Bitcoin blockchain. Suddenly, its architecture snapped into focus: not just code, but a defiance of artificial abundance.\
"Holy shit," she whispered, easing back from her desk, her monitor casting light on scattered ramen cups. She’d coded financial systems for years, but now she saw money’s true potential—scarce, digital, unbound.
**Block 694,201: The Entrepreneur**\
Ten minutes later, in a steamy Lagos cybercafé, James Okonjo’s world shifted as block 694,201 locked in. Struggling with payment delays under Nigeria’s currency controls, he read about Bitcoin’s borderless flow.\
"No more gatekeepers," he said, startling nearby patrons. His hands shook as he set up his first wallet, already dreaming of a Bitcoin education platform for African developers.
**Block 694,202: The Economist**\
In Caracas, Maria Rodriguez paced before her Universidad Central de Venezuela class, dissecting inflation’s latest surge. As block 694,202 formed, the idea of fixed-supply money hit her like a revelation.\
"Forget this slide," she said, closing her laptop. "Let’s talk proof-of-work." Her students stared, but her mind was already racing with possibilities.
**Block 694,203: The Retiree**\
In Tokyo, Hiroshi Yamamoto sipped tea during his morning portfolio review when block 694,203 confirmed. A retired salaryman, he saw Bitcoin as a shield against decades of yen erosion. Quietly, he began researching wallets, his curiosity ignited.
**Block 694,204: The Prodigy**\
In Toronto, 16-year-old Emma Chen, a coding whiz, stumbled across block 694,204 while tinkering online. The power to program her own money dawned on her. She grinned, diving into Bitcoin’s whitepaper with reckless glee.
**Block 694,205: The Shopkeeper**\
In Buenos Aires, Carlos Mendoza tallied his shop’s dwindling profits as block 694,205 ticked into existence. Sick of the peso’s collapse, he found Bitcoin—an escape from financial quicksand. By nightfall, he’d downloaded a wallet app.
---
**Part II: The First Day (Blocks 694,206–694,343)**
**The Morning Wave (Blocks 694,206–694,247)**\
Over the next 42 blocks—about seven hours—as Asia slept and Europe stirred, the awakenings multiplied:
**Block 694,206**: A Swiss banker questioned her fiat career.
**Block 694,207**: A German programmer marveled at Bitcoin’s consensus beauty.
**Block 694,208**: A Korean gamer saw virtual gold turn real.\
The chain hummed, each block birthing new believers, ten minutes apart.
**The American Session (Blocks 694,248–694,295)**\
As Wall Street woke, blocks 694,248 to 694,295—eight hours—marked a finance-world reckoning:
**Block 694,248**: A Connecticut hedge fund manager saw through fiat’s illusions.
**Block 694,249**: A Chicago commodities trader grasped digital scarcity.
**Block 694,250**: A Texas pension admin envisioned a sounder future.\
Each block stamped a timestamp on their transformation.
**The Global South Rises (Blocks 694,296–694,343)**\
The day’s final stretch—48 blocks, eight more hours—saw the global south ignite:
**Block 694,296**: Brazilian students planned Bitcoin beach hubs.
**Block 694,297**: Indonesian merchants linked Lightning payment loops.
**Block 694,298**: South African miners turned solar power into hash rate.\
The chain pulsed, relentless, binding them all.
---
**Part III: The Network Effect (Beyond Block 694,343)**
**The Teachers (Block 694,344)**\
Sarah quit her job at block 694,344, coding Bitcoin education tools. James’s platform launched, reaching Africa’s devs. Maria’s NOSTR lectures spread, her voice a beacon.
**The Builders (Block 694,345)**\
At block 694,345, innovation bloomed: privacy upgrades, scaling fixes, Lightning finance tools. The awakened built atop the chain.
**The HODLers (Block 694,346)**\
By block 694,346, others simply held—silent sentinels whose faith grew with each block, each halving.
---
**Epilogue: The Endless Chain (Blocks Onward)**
The awakening rolled on, ten minutes at a time. Block 694,347 saw a Mumbai coder join Sarah’s cause. Block 694,348 brought a Nairobi merchant to James’s platform. Block 694,349 swayed a Manila policymaker with Maria’s words.
Every block—144 a day—sparked new stories: dreamers seeking freedom, builders crafting tools, HODLers standing firm. Money, they understood, was too vital to be ruled by power. From block 694,200, the chain stretched forward, a living testament to scarcity, ownership, math over might.
Each block was a birth, each hash a heartbeat, each Bitcoiner a node in a network of financial truth—marching on, block by block, toward a harder, sounder world, forever verified, never permissioned, growing but never diluted, ten minutes at a time.
-
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@ 629c4a12:f822cc1a
2025-02-23 20:27:36
This is test 2
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@ d34e832d:383f78d0
2025-02-23 19:53:32
Hockeypuck is an **OpenPGP keyserver** that allows users to publish, search, and retrieve **PGP public keys** for secure communication. It is designed for **federation** with other keyservers and supports a **high-performance, scalable** architecture.
---
## **🛠️ Usage**
### **1. Public PGP Key Directory**
- Organizations, security researchers, and privacy-focused users can **publish and retrieve PGP keys** for encrypted email and document verification.
- Similar to **SKS Keyserver**, but actively maintained and more scalable.
### **2. Enterprise PGP Key Management**
- Companies can **host a private keyserver** for internal teams to share PGP keys securely.
- Prevents reliance on external keyservers like keys.openpgp.org.
### **3. Decentralized Identity and Key Distribution**
- Used in federated **PGP keyserver networks** like **Hockeypuck & SKS pools** to distribute OpenPGP keys across multiple servers.
- Useful for **distributed trust models** where multiple organizations manage keys collaboratively.
### **4. Bitcoin & Nostr Applications**
- Can be used alongside **Nostr** for key verification, ensuring public keys are retrievable for cryptographic signatures.
- Useful in **Bitcoin** applications where PGP-signed messages confirm identity.
### **5. Software Package Signing**
- Developers and package maintainers can **sign software updates** using OpenPGP, and end users can fetch public keys from Hockeypuck to verify authenticity.
- Example: **Debian and Arch Linux package signing**.
### **6. Secure Messaging**
- Supports secure email systems using **PGP-encrypted mail (e.g., ProtonMail, Thunderbird + Enigmail, Mailpile, etc.)**.
---
## **📌 Key Benefits**
✅ **Docker-Based Deployment** → Easily installable with **Docker** and **docker-compose**.
✅ **Federated Keyserver** → Can join existing **PGP keyserver networks**.
✅ **High-Performance Storage** → Uses PostgreSQL for better performance than older SKS keyservers.
✅ **Supports HTTP & HTTPS** → Can be hosted publicly with **TLS encryption**.
✅ **Fully Open Source** → Maintained as a modern alternative to SKS.
## **🔑 Signing a Nostr Event Using PGP & Verifying It on a Relay**
If Alice wants to **prove she controls `npub1xyz...`** using **PGP**, she can sign a Nostr event and publish both the event and signature.
---
### **🔹 Step 1: Create a Nostr Event (Kind 0)**
Alice generates a **Nostr profile metadata event**:
```json
{
"id": "xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx",
"pubkey": "npub1xyz...",
"created_at": 1700000000,
"kind": 0,
"tags": [],
"content": "{ \"name\": \"Alice\", \"about\": \"PGP Verified Nostr User\" }"
}
```
She saves this as **`nostr_event.json`**.
---
### **🔹 Step 2: Sign the Event with PGP**
Alice uses GnuPG to sign the event:
```bash
gpg --clearsign --armor nostr_event.json
```
This creates **`nostr_event.json.asc`**, which contains the event with a **PGP signature**.
🔹 **Example of the signed event:**
```
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA256
{
"id": "xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx",
"pubkey": "npub1xyz...",
"created_at": 1700000000,
"kind": 0,
"tags": [],
"content": "{ \"name\": \"Alice\", \"about\": \"PGP Verified Nostr User\" }"
}
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
iQIzBAEBCAAdFiEEbGSk4HTlMz5tG0tF0Y8fO3HTQYYFAmS8mOkACgkQ0Y8fO3HT
QYYX4w/+JwzbfM1EZ2F7H3yqbdGBJ2cGd...
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----
```
---
### **🔹 Step 3: Upload the Signature to a Public Keyserver**
Alice submits her signed Nostr event to the **Hockeypuck keyserver**:
```bash
curl --data-binary @nostr_event.json.asc https://keyserver.example.com/pks/add
```
---
### **🔹 Step 4: Publish the Event to a Nostr Relay**
Alice **publishes the original event** to a Nostr relay:
```bash
curl -X POST https://nostr-relay.example.com/ -d @nostr_event.json
```
---
### **🔹 Step 5: Verification**
Anyone can **fetch Alice’s PGP-signed event** and verify it:
```bash
curl "https://keyserver.example.com/pks/lookup?op=get&search=alice@nostr.example.com" | gpg --verify
```
If successful, it will show:
```
gpg: Good signature from "Alice <alice@nostr.example.com>"
```
---
### **✅ Use Cases**
1. **Proving Ownership of a Nostr Public Key** with PGP.
2. **Bitcoin Applications**: PGP-signed messages can confirm identities for multisig coordination.
3. **Decentralized Web of Trust**: Verifying Nostr users via signed events.
---
Additionally a simple JS or python script could automate signing process.
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@ e5de992e:4a95ef85
2025-02-23 07:52:00
A trading log isn't just a record of past trades—it's a tool for learning, improving, and achieving consistency. By keeping a detailed log, you gain insights into your decision-making process, identify patterns, and refine your strategy over time.
Here's why and how to maintain a comprehensive trading log effectively.
---
## 1. The Importance of a Trading Log
- **Track Performance Objectively**
Without a log, it's easy to misremember trades or overestimate success. A detailed log provides accurate data to analyze your progress.
- **Understand Your Strengths and Weaknesses**
By reviewing your log, you can identify what works well and where you need improvement. Patterns in losing trades often highlight common mistakes or emotional triggers.
- **Build Confidence and Trust in Your System**
Seeing a record of rule-based, consistent trades reinforces trust in your strategy. Reviewing past successes can boost morale during challenging periods.
---
## 2. What to Include in Your Trading Log
A detailed trading log should cover both objective data and subjective reflections.
### Objective Data
- **Date and Time:** When the trade was entered and exited.
- **Instrument Traded:** Stock, forex pair, crypto, etc.
- **Entry and Exit Prices:** Precise levels where you opened and closed the trade.
- **Position Size:** Number of shares, contracts, or units traded.
- **Stop Loss and Take Profit Levels:** Risk management details.
- **P/L (Profit or Loss):** Outcome of the trade in dollars or percentage terms.
- **Trade Type:** Long, short, scalping, swing, etc.
### Subjective Reflections
- **Reason for Entering the Trade:** What setup or signal prompted the trade?
- **Emotional State:** How did you feel before, during, and after the trade?
- **Execution Notes:** Did you follow your plan? If not, why?
- **Lessons Learned:** What can you take away from this trade to improve next time?
> **Key Insight:** Both data and reflection are essential for meaningful analysis.
---
## 3. How to Analyze Your Trading Log
1. **Identify Patterns**
Look for common themes in your winning and losing trades.
_Examples:_ Winning trades often align with specific setups, while losing trades frequently result from breaking rules or impulsive decisions.
2. **Evaluate Strategy Effectiveness**
Assess whether your system produces consistent results over time.
Use metrics like win rate, risk-reward ratio, and drawdown to evaluate performance.
3. **Address Emotional Triggers**
Reflect on emotional notes to understand what triggers fear, greed, or hesitation.
Develop strategies to manage emotions based on these insights.
---
## 4. Benefits of Keeping a Trading Log
- **Improved Discipline:**
Writing down each trade reinforces the habit of sticking to your plan.
- **Informed Adjustments:**
Logs provide data-driven insights to refine your strategy.
- **Emotional Control:**
Journaling emotions helps you recognize and address psychological pitfalls.
- **Long-Term Growth:**
By tracking your progress, you can measure improvement over months and years.
> **Key Insight:** A trading log turns mistakes into lessons and successes into repeatable actions.
---
## 5. Tools for Logging Trades
### Manual Logs
- Use a notebook or spreadsheet to record trades.
- **Pros:** Highly customizable, forces you to engage deeply with each entry.
- **Cons:** Time-intensive and less automated.
### Software and Platforms
- Tools like Edgewonk, TraderSync, or Tradervue can streamline the process.
- **Pros:** Automated data collection, advanced analytics, and performance tracking.
- **Cons:** May have a learning curve or subscription costs.
> **Key Insight:** Choose a method that aligns with your workflow and trading style.
---
## 6. Tips for Maintaining a Consistent Trading Log
- **Log Every Trade:**
Don't skip trades, even the ones you'd rather forget. They're often the most valuable for learning.
- **Be Honest:**
Record trades exactly as they happened, including mistakes and rule-breaking.
- **Review Regularly:**
Set aside time weekly or monthly to analyze your log and adjust your approach.
- **Stay Disciplined:**
Treat logging as an essential part of your trading routine.
---
## 7. Conclusion: Your Trading Log is Your Mirror
A detailed trading log is more than just a record—it's a roadmap to success. It provides clarity, accountability, and insights that are essential for continuous improvement.
Start today. Keep a detailed log, review it often, and use it to refine both your strategy and your mindset. Your future self will thank you.
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@ e5de992e:4a95ef85
2025-02-23 07:46:45
China’s M1 increases a lot, it means there’s more money available for people and businesses to buy things. This can help boost spending and economic growth in the short term. However, if there’s too much money chasing the same amount of goods and services, prices can rise, leading to inflation. Sometimes, a rapid increase in M1 can also signal that banks are lending a lot of money, which might eventually create bubbles in things like real estate or stocks if the growth isn’t managed carefully.
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/money-supply-m1
China’s M1 increases a lot, it means there’s more money available for people and businesses to buy things. This can help boost spending and economic growth in the short term.
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@ da0b9bc3:4e30a4a9
2025-02-23 07:08:22
Hello Stackers!
Welcome on into the ~Music Corner of the Saloon!
A place where we Talk Music. Share Tracks. Zap Sats.
So stay a while and listen.
🚨Don't forget to check out the pinned items in the territory homepage! You can always find the latest weeklies there!🚨
🚨Subscribe to the territory to ensure you never miss a post! 🚨
originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/894609
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@ e3ba5e1a:5e433365
2025-02-23 06:35:51
My wife and I have six children, making our house a household of eight people. Looking just at the eight of us, how many relationships exist? Well, as a first stab, we could look at how many connections exist between two unique individuals in this family. The mathematical term for this is “8 choose 2”, and the answer is 8\*7/2, or 28\.
Even that doesn’t really capture the answer though, because relationships aren’t just between two people. For example, when my wife and two oldest children are the only ones still awake after the younger kids go to bed, we’ll put on my mature TV shows that they’ll appreciate and watch together. It’s our own little subgroup within the group.
Based on that, we could have groups of 2, 3, 4, all the way up to 8, the group of all of us. If you do the math, this comes up to 247 different subgroups of 2 or more people. That’s a lot of groups for just 8 people.
As a father, this means I’ll never be able to fully understand every set of connections within my family. I may have a good understanding of my own relationship with each child. I also am closely aware of the relationship between our two youngest children, since they’re twins. And I could probably list 20 or so other noteworthy relationships. But I’ll never understand all of them.
For example, months ago I bought a game on Steam for my 3rd and 4th kids. I know they like to play games together, so it was a relationship that I thought I understood well. A few days ago I found out that my oldest had joined them in playing one of these games (Brotato). I’d made the purchase, given it to the kids, and it sparked new relationship and interaction structures without my involvement.
There’s no problem with the fact that I can’t track every interaction in my house. That’s healthy\! The kids are able to discover ways of interacting beyond what I can teach them, learn everything from schoolwork to video games from each other, and overall become more healthy and well-adjusted adults (I hope).
And here’s the important part: the growth of the number of connections is *massive* as the number of participants increases. If we add in another participant, we have 502 groupings. At 10 total participants, it jumps to over 1,000. By the time we get to 100, we’re well into the trillions.
A mathematical and software term for this is *combinatoric complexity*, the massive increase in an output value based on a small increase in the input. The analysis I’m providing could be termed as part of graph theory (for connections of 2, looking at people as *vertices* and connections as *edges*) or set theory (unique subsets, allowing for larger group sizes). But regardless, the point is: the increase in complexity is huge as more people join.
Now consider the global economy. It’s over 8 billion people. There are so many people that the number of groupings is absurd to talk about. Nonetheless, massive numbers of these groupings naturally occur. There are family units, friend circles, individual connections, companies, project teams, sports teams, schools, classes, and millions more. These groups of people form new ways of interacting, express vastly different desires for goods and services, and are capable of producing wide varieties of goods and services themselves.
When you allow this system to run free, beauty emerges. Each node in the graph can manage its own connections. Each *person* is free to make his or her own decisions about association, what to spend time on, what to spend money on, and so on. Each person does so on their own judgement and world view.
Some of these people may make “dumb” decisions. They may “waste” their time and money on useless things. Except: who made that value judgement? Clearly not them, they decided it was worth it. No central planner has the right to override their will.
My point in all this is: as yet another of many reasons in the list of “why people should be free,” we have one more data point: pure math. Central planning will never scale. Central planning will never appreciate the individuality and desires of each person. Only by giving people the freedom to explore their connections to others, discover what they can produce and consume, explore their options, and ultimately make their own decisions, can we have any chance of creating a world where everyone can succeed.
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@ 78c90fc4:4bff983c
2025-02-23 06:25:25
 
Vor dem Prozess kursierten Gerüchte, Maxwell verstecke sich in einem U-Boot oder auf nahe gelegenen Inseln. Sie besitzt ein U-Boot und hat eine Lizenz dafür
Water Island ist eine 500 Hektar große Landzunge auf den U.S. Virgin Islands. Aufnahmen aus dem Jahr 2012 (auch Video) zeigen einen Teil des Untergrunds und seiner Umgebung.
2005: James und Sara Biden kaufen ein Grundstück auf Water Island, in der Mitte der Insel, für 150.000 Euro. Dieser Teil des Grundstücks wurde in drei Teile aufgeteilt und verkauft. Einer von ihnen ist Scott Green.
Scott Green, ein Lobbyist mit engen Beziehungen zu Joe Biden, kaufte das Grundstück auf den Jungferninseln von James Biden und gewährte ihm dann eine private Hypothek.
Nach dem Kauf machte Joe Biden mindestens dreimal Urlaub auf der winzigen Insel, die einst einen nahe gelegenen U-Boot-Stützpunkt und eine unterirdische Anlage schützte, bevor sie zu einem tropischen Rückzugsort wurde.
Die Bedingungen des Darlehens wurden in den Immobilienunterlagen nicht offengelegt.
Green hat auf mehrere Bitten um Stellungnahme nicht reagiert.
Der Anwalt von James Biden, George Mesires, bestätigte den Erhalt von Fragen, beantwortete sie aber nicht.
Green hat Biden 2.300 Dollar gespendet, aber als er um einen Kommentar gebeten wurde, hat er nicht geantwortet.
Und raten Sie mal, was Green in Washington, D.C., als Auftragnehmer für öffentliche Sicherheits- und Strafverfolgungsbehörden als Teil einer Firma arbeitet, die er 1994 mitbegründet hat.
Es wird noch interessanter!! Scotts Lafayette Group erhält 5,8 Millionen Dollar von der FEMA. 3 TAGE SPÄTER gaben sie James und Sara Biden eine Hypothek von 133.000 für Water Island Land. Und es gibt noch so viel mehr, aber das ist ein anderes Kaninchenloch (ein weiterer Zuschuss für 40 Millionen Dollar).
Unten können Sie eine von Bidens zahlreichen Lügen sehen:
„Ich habe nie mit meinem Sohn oder meinem Bruder oder sonst jemandem etwas besprochen, was mit ihren Geschäften zu tun hat.“
Hunter Biden arbeitete als Energieberater ohne jegliche Erfahrung in diesem Bereich.
James Biden trat der Firma HillStone bei. Und wie durch ein Wunder erhielt das Unternehmen zahlreiche Aufträge von der Bundesregierung (USA, Irak, Puerto Rico, Mosambik usw.)
Kredit: Natly Denise, CaptainBirchShow, Politico
\#EpsteinClientList #EpsteinIsland
<https://x.com/SaladMeToday/status/1892971887006810214>
<https://x.com/RealWsiegrist/status/1893543364676522222>
Perplexity:
Der U-Boot-Stützpunkt in der Nähe von Water Island auf St. Thomas auf den US-Jungferninseln war während des Zweiten Weltkriegs aufgrund seiner Rolle bei der Verteidigung der Karibik und der US-Marineoperationen von großer strategischer Bedeutung.\
\
\### \*\*Strategische Bedeutung der U-Boot-Basis\*\*\
\- Die U-Boot-Basis auf St. Thomas wurde 1941 als Teil einer umfassenderen US-Militärstrategie zur Sicherung der Karibik während des Zweiten Weltkriegs eingerichtet. Diese Region war entscheidend für den Schutz der Schifffahrtswege und die Bekämpfung der deutschen U-Boot-Aktivitäten im Atlantik\[1]\[2].\
\- Der Stützpunkt verfügte über eine umfangreiche Infrastruktur mit drei Piers, Unterkünften für fast 1.000 Mitarbeiter, Lagereinrichtungen, einer Torpedoüberholungswerkstatt und einem bombensicheren Maschinenhaus\[1]. Diese Einrichtungen unterstützten den Betrieb und die Wartung von U-Booten in einem strategisch wichtigen Gebiet.\
\
\###\
\- Water Island, südlich von St. Thomas gelegen, wurde 1944 von der US-Regierung erworben, um die Küstenverteidigung zu stärken\[5]. Fort Segarra, eine unterirdische Festung auf Water Island, wurde zum Schutz der nahe gelegenen U-Boot-Basis auf St. Thomas\[2]\[4] errichtet.\
\- Das Fort umfasste Geschützstellungen, Tunnel, unterirdische Kammern, Kasernen und andere militärische Infrastrukturen. Es wurde jedoch nie fertiggestellt oder voll einsatzfähig, da der Zweite Weltkrieg vor Abschluss der Bauarbeiten beendet wurde\[3]\[6].\
\
\*\*Nachkriegsnutzung\*\*\
\- Nach dem Krieg wurden Fort Segarra und Water Island für verschiedene militärische Tests genutzt, darunter Experimente zur chemischen Kriegsführung, die zwischen 1948 und 1950 durchgeführt wurden\[4]\[6]. Später, im Jahr 1952, wurde die Insel unter zivile Kontrolle gestellt.\
\
\###\
\- Heute sind die Überreste von Fort Segarra und seine unterirdischen Strukturen auf Water Island für Besucher zugänglich. Sie erinnern an die Rolle des Forts beim Schutz des U-Boot-Stützpunkts und an seine strategische Bedeutung während des Zweiten Weltkriegs\[3]\[6].\
\
Zusammenfassend lässt sich sagen, dass der U-Boot-Stützpunkt auf St. Thomas und die damit verbundenen Verteidigungsanlagen auf Water Island entscheidende Komponenten der US-Bemühungen zur Sicherung der Karibik während des Zweiten Weltkriegs waren. Obwohl ihre militärische Nutzung vor Jahrzehnten endete, bleiben sie aufgrund ihres historischen und strategischen Erbes von Bedeutung.\
\
Quellen\
\[1] Militärgeschichte von Water Island https\://history.wica.vi/military-history/\
\[2] Fort Segarra - Flamingo Point USVI Water Island http\://flamingopointusvi.com/water-island\
\[3] Fort Segarra - Virgin Islands - VInow\.com https\://www\.vinow\.com/wi/wi-a/fort-segarra/\
\[4] Fort Segarra - Wikipedia https\://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort\_Segarra\
\[5] Fort Segarra - Jacksonville District - Army.mil https\://www\.saj.usace.army.mil/FortSegarra/\
\[6] Water Island, U.S. Virgin Islands - Wikipedia https\://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water\_Island,\_U.S.\_Virgin\_Islands\
\[7] Water Island | Seas the Day Charters USVI https\://seasthedayusvi.com/2022/02/11/exploring-water-island-u-s-virgin-islands-best-kept-secret/\
\[8] Water Island: Aktivitäten und Sehenswürdigkeiten - Jungferninseln - VInow\.com https\://www\.vinow\.com/waterisland/attractions\_wi/
Dazu auch die Sammlung
Epstein
<https://waltisiegrist.locals.com/post/1353380/epstein-oder-wie-leicht-sich-die-wissenschaft-kaufen-laesst>
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@ 52adc2ef:9f4bc0ba
2025-02-23 03:45:10
สวัสดีครับ วันนี้อยากมาเล่าเรื่องเกี่ยวกับ Options
เราได้ไปเรียนกับทาง อ.เอ็ม ติดเล่า เรื่องลงทุน
อยากจะเเชร์สำหรับคนที่สนใจ Options เเต่เพื่อนๆที่ลงทุนมาบ้างน่าจะเคยได้ยิน
เเต่ก่อนอื่นการเทรดลงทุนอยากให้เข้าใจ 3 คำนี้ก่อนนะครับ
**Spot , Futures , options**
**Spot** คือ การซื้อขาย สินทรัพย์ ณ เวลาปัจจุบัน ตามราคาปัจจุบัน เช่น BTC มีราคา 95,000$
ในเวปเทรด เรากดซื้อ จะได้ตามราคา
Futures คือ สัญญาซื้อ ขาย สินทรัพย์ล่วงหน้า จะซื้อขายในราคาที่กำหนด เมื่อถึงเวลากำหนด
จะต้องทำการซื้อขายตามนั้น คล้ายๆสัญญาซื้อที่ดิน ที่เราต้องใช้สิทธิ์กันทั้งผู้ซื้อและผู้ขาย
เช่น สัญญาจะซื้อ BTC ราคา 90,000$ โดยมีอายุสัญญา 3 เดือน ถ้าวันครบสัญญา BTC ราคา 95,000$ จะต้องขายให้ในราคา 90,000$
หรือ สัญญาขาย BTC ราคา 100,000$ โดยมีอายุสัญญา 3 เดือน ถ้าวันครบสัญญา BTC ราคา 95,000$ จะต้องขายให้ในราคา 100,000$
**Options** คือ สัญญาที่ผู้จะซื้อขาย เเบบ futures แต่มีจ่ายค่า Premium เพื่อมีสิทธิ์ที่จะใช้สิทธิ์ซื้อหรือสิทธิ์ขายก็ได้ โดยใช้สิทธิ์ในระยะเวลาที่กำหนด
เช่น สัญญา long call สัญญาใช้สิทธิ์ซื้อ เมื่อ BTC ราคา 98,000$ โดยต้องจ่ายค่า premium 100$ เพื่อLock สิทธิ์
ถ้าราคา BTC = 95,000$ เราไม่จำเป็นต้องใช้สิทธิ์ได้ เพราะซื้อในตลาดถูกกว่า เเต่เราจะต้องเสีย premium ที่เราวางไว้ เป็นต้น
พอจะเห็นภาพใช่มั้ยครับ
ซึ่งจะมาพูดในส่วนของ options กัน
Options มีการใช้สิทธิ์อยู่ 2 แบบ
Call Options โดยมี Long call คือ สิทธิ์ในการซื้อ Long put คือ สิทธิ์ในการขาย
Put Optionsโดยมี Short call คือ ผู้ที่มีหน้าที่ต้องขายจะคู่กับ Long call
Short put คือ ผู้ที่มีหน้าที่ต้องซื้อจะคู่กับ Long put
โดยมีคำศัพท์ควรรู้อีกเล็กน้อย จะได้เข้าใจภาพรวมทั้งหมดกัน
Strike price = ราคาที่จะซื้อจะขาย
maturity=วันสิ้นสัญญา
premium=เบี้ย
time to maturity=ระยะเวลาสัญญา
อาจจะยังงงๆ งั้นเริ่มอธิบายทีละข้อกันมาเริ่มที่
**Long Call Option**
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สิทธิ์ในการซื้อ จากรูปจะเห็นว่าถ้าเราคิดว่าราคา สินทรัพย์ที่เราสนใจมีเเนวโน้มที่จะขึ้น
ซึ่งขณะนี้ ราคาอยู่ที่ 90$ เราอาจจะซื้อ Long call ที่ราคาเริ่มใช้สิทธิ์ Strike Price=100$
โดยมีค่า Premium ที่ 5$
จะเห็นว่าถ้าราคาเป็น 80$ เราคงไม่ใช้สิทธิ์ เพราะซื้อปกติถูกกว่า
ราคาใช้สิทธิ์เราจะต้องซื้อที่ 100$
เมื่อไม่ใช้สิทธิ์ เราต้องเสียค่า Premium ให้กับฝั่งที่มีหน้าที่ขาย คือ Short call
ซึ่งเมื่อเทียบกับการ Long Futures ถ้าเกิดลงไปเหลือ 45$ เราจะเสีย 50% เเต่ถ้ามี option จะเสียสุดที่เเค่ค่า Premium
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รูปกราฟของ Long Futures
ซึ่ง Long call = Long future ครึ่งเดียวเพราะ Long Future ราคาจะขึ้นไปเรื่อยๆตามกราฟ
Long Call Option เหมาะใช้เมื่อไหร่?
ให้คิดว่าเหมือนซื้อหวย เพราะถ้าราคาไม่ไปตามที่คิดเราจะเสียเเค่ค่า Premium หวยเหมือนเราเสียค่า Premium ไปก่อน 80 บาท หรือวิเคราะห์มาเเล้วว่ามีโอกาสที่ราคาขึ้น
**Short Call Option**
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เป็นฝั่งตรงข้ามกับ Long
call เราต้องมีหน้าที่ขายให้ฝั่ง long call ซึ่งฝั่งขายต้องมีสินทรัพย์นั้นๆเพื่อไว้ขาย เพราะมีหน้าที่
ต้องขาย ไม่เหมือนฝั่ง long call ที่มีสามารถเลือกใช้สิทธิ์ได้
เมื่อราคาไม่ถึง Strike Price หลังจากหมดอายุสัญญา ฝั่ง short call ได้ค่า Premium
จากฝั่ง Long call
จากรูป ถ้าสินทรัพย์ ราคา 90$ ราคาที่ต้องขายสินทรัพย์ 100$ ถ้าราคาไม่ถึง 100$ จะได้ค่า Premium เเต่ถ้าราคาเกิน 100$ เป็นต้นไป จะขาดทุนมากขึ้นเรื่อยๆ
ถ้าราคาไปที่ 150$ ต้องมาขายที่ 100$ ตามสัญญา
Short Call Option เหมาะใช้เมื่อไหร่?
เหมาะสำหรับที่เรามีสินทรัพย์ที่อยากจะขายอยู่เเล้วตาม Target ที่เราตั้งไว้
เช่น มีหุ้นที่ถือไว้อยู่เเล้ว ราคา 50$ ตั้งใจจะทำกำไรเมื่อราคา 100$ แทนที่จะรอขายเฉยๆ
มาทำการ Short call
ถ้าราคาไม่ถึงก็ได้กินค่า Premium ไป เเต่ถ้าราคาถึง 100$
เราต้องการที่จะ Take Profit อยู่เเล้ว ก็ขายไป
Long Put Option
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หมายถึงเราสิทธ์ในการขายรือไม่ขายก็ได้ จะตรงข้ามกับ Long call
จากรูปถ้าถือสินทรัพย์จากทุน 50$ เเต่ตอนนี้ราคา 80$ เเล้วไม่เเน่ใจว่าราคาจะลงมั้ย เเต่ขึ้นต่อก็ไม่เปนไร
อยากจะ Lock ราคาขาย 70$ ใช้สัญญา Long Put จ่ายค่า Premium ถ้าราคาลงไปที่ 50$ เราใช้สิทธิ์ในการขายที่ ราคา 70$ ได้ ถ้าราคาขึ้นเราก็จะไม่ใช้สิทธิ์เพราะขายในตลาดได้ราคาดีกว่า
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รูปกราฟของ Short Futures
ซึ่ง Long put = Short future ครึ่งเดียวเพราะ Short Future ราคาจะลงไปเรื่อยๆตามกราฟ
Long Put Option เหมาะใช้เมื่อไหร่?
ให้คิดว่าเหมือนซื้อประกัน ที่เราจ่ายเบี้ยประกันไปเพื่อที่จะ Lock ความเสี่ยงที่จะเกิด ส่วน Long Put ก็ไม่รู้ว่าราคาที่ถือจะลงมั้ย ยอมที่จ่ายค่า Premium เพื่อที่จะได้ราคาตามมูลค่าเดิมของเรา
**Short Put Option*
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เป็นฝั่งตรงข้ามกับ Long put เราต้องมีหน้าที่รับซื้อให้ฝั่ง long put ซึ่งฝั่งซื้อต้องมีเงินเพื่อไว้ซื้อ เพราะมีหน้าที่ต้องซื้อ ไม่เหมือนฝั่ง long put ที่มีสามารถเลือกใช้สิทธิ์ได้
เมื่อราคาไม่ถึง Strike Price หลังจากหมดอายุสัญญา ฝั่ง short put ได้ค่า
Premium จากฝั่ง Long put
จากรูป
ราคาสินทรัพย์อยู่ที่ 80$ ราคาที่เรารับซื้อ หรือ Strike Price 70$ ถ้าราคาลงไม่ถึง 70 $ ก็จะได้ค่า Premium ถ้าราคาลงไปต่ำกว่า 70$ ก็ต้องรับซื้อทุกกรณี
ราคาลงไปที่ 50$ เราก็ต้องรับซื้อที่ 70$ ตามสัญญา
Short Put Option เหมาะใช้เมื่อไหร่?
ใช้เมื่อเราอยากจะซื้อสินทรัพย์ราคานั้นๆอยู่เเล้ว เช่น อยากจะซื้อที่ราคา 70 $ แทนที่จะรอเฉยๆ
อาจจะเปิด Short Put เพื่อที่ราคายังไม่ถึง target ก็จะได้ค่า Premium
ถ้าราคาถึงก็ได้ซื้อเหมือนที่ตั้งใจไว้
สรุป
จากที่เล่าทั้งหมดเป็นการอธิบาย Options เบื้องต้นที่อยากให้เพื่อนๆ ที่สนใจการเทรดอยู่เเล้ว
ถ้าเข้าใจเรื่อง Options ด้วยเราคิดว่าน่าจะปรับใช้ในส่วนช่วยใน Port ของเราไม่มากก็น้อย
หวังว่าจะเป็นประโยชน์กับทุกๆคนนะครับขอบคุณครับ
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@ 5d4b6c8d:8a1c1ee3
2025-02-23 01:06:46
Well, my Wemby pick from last month just went up in flames. It's only getting more difficult to figure out who's getting that last spot, now. I want to take KAT, but that would give me the same exact picks as @gnilma with fewer possible points. I'll take his teammate, Jalen Brunson, and hope NY voters pick the wrong Knick.
Remember, older correct predictions are worth more than recent ones, so don't wait too long to get off your bad predictions.
Also, players must play in at least 65 games to be eligible for awards. Luka, AD, and Wemby are not going to be eligible, so you should swap them out if you still have them.
Here's the current state of the competition with your max possible score next to your nym:
| Contestant | MVP | Champ | All NBA | | | | |
|--------------|------|---------|----------|-|-|-|-|
| @Undisciplined 47| SGA| OKC | Jokic | Giannis |Tatum | SGA | Brunson |
| @grayruby 55| Giannis| Cavs| Jokic | Giannis | Luka | Mitchell| Brunson|
| @gnilma 55| SGA| OKC| Jokic | KAT | Giannis | Tatum| SGA |
| @BitcoinAbhi 70 | Luka| Denver| Jokic | Giannis | Luka | Ant| SGA|
| @Bell_curve 63| SGA| Celtics| Jokic | Giannis | Luka | Ant| SGA|
| @0xbitcoiner 70 | Jokic| Pacers| Jokic | Giannis | Luka | Ant| Brunson|
| @Coinsreporter 49| Giannis| Pacers| Jokic | Giannis | Luka | Ant| Brunson|
| @TheMorningStar 49| Luka| Celtics| Jokic | Giannis | Luka | Ant| SGA|
| @onthedeklein 49| Luka| T-Wolves| Jokic | Giannis | Luka | Wemby| SGA|
| @Carresan 49| Luka| Mavs| Jokic | Giannis | Luka | Wemby| SGA|
| @BTC_Bellzer 34| SGA| Celtics| Jokic| Giannis | Tatum| SGA| Brunson |
| @realBitcoinDog 49| Luka| Lakers| Jokic | Giannis | Luka | Ant| SGA|
| @SimpleStacker 42| SGA| Celtics| Jokic| Tatum| Luka | Brunson| SGA|
| @BlokchainB 42| SGA| Knicks| AD| Giannis | Ant| Brunson| SGA|
**Prize**
At least 6k (I'll keep adding zaps to the pot).
If you want to join this contest, just leave your predictions for MVP, Champion, and All-NBA 1st team in the comments. See the [June post](https://stacker.news/items/585231/r/Undisciplined) for more details.
originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/894412
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@ 641d8c39:1224c8d3
2025-02-23 00:17:46
A specter is haunting the modern world, the specter of crypto anarchy.
Computer technology is on the verge of providing the ability for individuals and groups to communicate and interact with each other in a totally anonymous manner. Two persons may exchange messages, conduct business, and negotiate electronic contracts without ever knowing the True Name, or legal identity, of the other. Interactions over networks will be untraceable, via extensive re-routing of encrypted packets and tamper-proof boxes which implement cryptographic protocols with nearly perfect assurance against any tampering. Reputations will be of central importance, far more important in dealings than even the credit ratings of today. These developments will alter completely the nature of government regulation, the ability to tax and control economic interactions, the ability to keep information secret, and will even alter the nature of trust and reputation.
The technology for this revolution--and it surely will be both a social and economic revolution--has existed in theory for the past decade. The methods are based upon public-key encryption, zero-knowledge interactive proof systems, and various software protocols for interaction, authentication, and verification. The focus has until now been on academic conferences in Europe and the U.S., conferences monitored closely by the National Security Agency. But only recently have computer networks and personal computers attained sufficient speed to make the ideas practically realizable. And the next ten years will bring enough additional speed to make the ideas economically feasible and essentially unstoppable. High-speed networks, ISDN, tamper-proof boxes, smart cards, satellites, Ku-band transmitters, multi-MIPS personal computers, and encryption chips now under development will be some of the enabling technologies.
The State will of course try to slow or halt the spread of this technology, citing national security concerns, use of the technology by drug dealers and tax evaders, and fears of societal disintegration. Many of these concerns will be valid; crypto anarchy will allow national secrets to be trade freely and will allow illicit and stolen materials to be traded. An anonymous computerized market will even make possible abhorrent markets for assassinations and extortion. Various criminal and foreign elements will be active users of CryptoNet. But this will not halt the spread of crypto anarchy.
Just as the technology of printing altered and reduced the power of medieval guilds and the social power structure, so too will cryptologic methods fundamentally alter the nature of corporations and of government interference in economic transactions. Combined with emerging information markets, crypto anarchy will create a liquid market for any and all material which can be put into words and pictures. And just as a seemingly minor invention like barbed wire made possible the fencing-off of vast ranches and farms, thus altering forever the concepts of land and property rights in the frontier West, so too will the seemingly minor discovery out of an arcane branch of mathematics come to be the wire clippers which dismantle the barbed wire around intellectual property.
Arise, you have nothing to lose but your barbed wire fences!A specter is haunting the modern world, the specter of crypto anarchy.
Computer technology is on the verge of providing the ability for individuals and groups to communicate and interact with each other in a totally anonymous manner. Two persons may exchange messages, conduct business, and negotiate electronic contracts without ever knowing the True Name, or legal identity, of the other. Interactions over networks will be untraceable, via extensive re-routing of encrypted packets and tamper-proof boxes which implement cryptographic protocols with nearly perfect assurance against any tampering. Reputations will be of central importance, far more important in dealings than even the credit ratings of today. These developments will alter completely the nature of government regulation, the ability to tax and control economic interactions, the ability to keep information secret, and will even alter the nature of trust and reputation.
The technology for this revolution--and it surely will be both a social and economic revolution--has existed in theory for the past decade. The methods are based upon public-key encryption, zero-knowledge interactive proof systems, and various software protocols for interaction, authentication, and verification. The focus has until now been on academic conferences in Europe and the U.S., conferences monitored closely by the National Security Agency. But only recently have computer networks and personal computers attained sufficient speed to make the ideas practically realizable. And the next ten years will bring enough additional speed to make the ideas economically feasible and essentially unstoppable. High-speed networks, ISDN, tamper-proof boxes, smart cards, satellites, Ku-band transmitters, multi-MIPS personal computers, and encryption chips now under development will be some of the enabling technologies.
The State will of course try to slow or halt the spread of this technology, citing national security concerns, use of the technology by drug dealers and tax evaders, and fears of societal disintegration. Many of these concerns will be valid; crypto anarchy will allow national secrets to be trade freely and will allow illicit and stolen materials to be traded. An anonymous computerized market will even make possible abhorrent markets for assassinations and extortion. Various criminal and foreign elements will be active users of CryptoNet. But this will not halt the spread of crypto anarchy.
Just as the technology of printing altered and reduced the power of medieval guilds and the social power structure, so too will cryptologic methods fundamentally alter the nature of corporations and of government interference in economic transactions. Combined with emerging information markets, crypto anarchy will create a liquid market for any and all material which can be put into words and pictures. And just as a seemingly minor invention like barbed wire made possible the fencing-off of vast ranches and farms, thus altering forever the concepts of land and property rights in the frontier West, so too will the seemingly minor discovery out of an arcane branch of mathematics come to be the wire clippers which dismantle the barbed wire around intellectual property.
Arise, you have nothing to lose but your barbed wire fences!
https://groups.csail.mit.edu/mac/classes/6.805/articles/crypto/cypherpunks/may-crypto-manifesto.html
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@ fc481c65:e280e7ba
2025-02-22 22:22:14
**Math is the formalization of a human idea**
Mathematics is a broad field of study that involves the investigation of patterns, quantities, structures, and changes in the abstract form as well as their real-world applications. It is foundational to a variety of disciplines including science, engineering, medicine, and the social sciences, providing a framework for reasoning, problem-solving, and understanding the universe.
<iframe title="The Map of Mathematics" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/OmJ-4B-mS-Y?feature=oembed" height="113" width="200" allowfullscreen="" allow="fullscreen" style="aspect-ratio: 1.76991 / 1; width: 100%; height: 100%;"></iframe>
Mathematics is composed of many subfields, including but not limited to:
1. **Arithmetic:** The study of numbers and the basic operations on them: addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division.
2. **Algebra:** The study of symbols and the rules for manipulating these symbols; it is a unifying thread of almost all of mathematics.
3. **Geometry:** The study of shapes, sizes, and properties of space.
4. **Calculus:** The study of change in mathematical functions and models, dealing with limits, derivatives, integrals, and infinite series.
5. **Statistics:** The study of data collection, analysis, interpretation, presentation, and organization.
6. **Number Theory:** The study of properties and relationships of numbers, especially the integers.
7. **Topology:** The study of properties that remain constant through continuous deformations, such as stretching and bending, but not tearing or gluing.
8. **Applied Mathematics:** Uses mathematical methods and reasoning to solve real-world problems in business, science, engineering, and other fields.
Mathematics is both ancient and modern; it has a rich history stretching back thousands of years, yet it continues to develop and evolve today, with new theories, discoveries, and applications constantly emerging. It is both a rigorous discipline in its own right and an essential tool used throughout the sciences and beyond.
## Pure and Applied Mathematics
Pure mathematics and applied mathematics represent two broad categories within the field of mathematics, each with its focus, methodologies, and applications. The distinction between them lies in their primary objectives and the way mathematical theories are utilized.
[[Attachments/01233372a59d2dc17b937c38319d672f_MD5.jpeg|Open: Pasted image 20240405125055.png]]
![[Attachments/01233372a59d2dc17b937c38319d672f_MD5.jpeg]]
#### Pure Mathematics
Pure mathematics is concerned with the study of mathematical concepts independent of any application outside mathematics. It is motivated by a desire to understand abstract principles and the properties of mathematical structures. The pursuit in pure mathematics is knowledge for its own sake, not necessarily aiming to find immediate practical applications. Pure mathematicians often focus on proving theorems and exploring theoretical frameworks, driven by curiosity and the aesthetic appeal of mathematics itself.
Key areas within pure mathematics include:
- **Algebra:** The study of symbols and the rules for manipulating these symbols.
- **Geometry:** The investigation of the properties of space and figures.
- **Analysis:** The rigorous formulation of calculus, focusing on limits, continuity, and infinite series.
- **Number Theory:** The study of the properties of numbers, particularly integers.
- **Topology:** The study of properties preserved through deformations, twistings, and stretchings of objects.
#### Applied Mathematics
Applied mathematics, on the other hand, is focused on the development and practical use of mathematical methods to solve problems in other areas, such as science, engineering, technology, economics, business, and industry. Applied mathematics is deeply connected with empirical research and the application of mathematical models to real-world situations. It involves the formulation, study, and use of mathematical models and seeks to make predictions, optimize solutions, and develop new approaches based on mathematical theory.
Key areas within applied mathematics include:
- **Differential Equations:** Used to model rates of change in applied contexts.
- **Statistics and Probability:** The study of data, uncertainty, and the quantification of the likelihood of events.
- **Computational Mathematics:** The use of algorithmic techniques for solving mathematical problems more efficiently, especially those that are too large for human numerical capacity.
- **Mathematical Physics:** The application of mathematics to solve problems in physics and the development of mathematical methods for such applications.
## Is Mathematics discovered or Invented
The question of whether mathematics is discovered or invented is a philosophical one that has sparked debate among mathematicians, philosophers, and scientists for centuries. Both viewpoints offer compelling arguments, and the distinction often hinges on one's perspective on the nature of mathematical objects and the universality of mathematical truths.
<iframe title="Is math discovered or invented? - Jeff Dekofsky" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/X_xR5Kes4Rs?feature=oembed" height="113" width="200" allowfullscreen="" allow="fullscreen" style="aspect-ratio: 1.76991 / 1; width: 100%; height: 100%;"></iframe>
### Mathematics as Discovered
Those who argue that mathematics is discovered believe that mathematical truths exist independently of human thought and that mathematicians uncover these truths through investigation and reasoning. This viewpoint suggests that mathematical concepts like numbers, geometrical shapes, and even more abstract ideas have a reality that transcends human invention. The consistency of mathematical laws across cultures and times, and their applicability in accurately describing the natural world, supports the notion that mathematics is a universal truth waiting to be discovered. According to this perspective, mathematical structures exist in some abstract realm, and humans merely uncover aspects of this pre-existing world.
#### Mathematics as Invented
On the other hand, the viewpoint that mathematics is invented centers on the idea that mathematical concepts are human creations, designed to describe and understand the world. According to this perspective, mathematical theories and structures are the products of human thought, created to serve specific purposes in science, engineering, and other fields. This view emphasizes the role of creativity and invention in the development of mathematical ideas, suggesting that different cultures or species might develop entirely different mathematical systems depending on their needs and experiences. Proponents of this view point to the variety of mathematical systems (such as different geometries or number systems) that have been invented to solve particular types of problems, arguing that this diversity is evidence of mathematics being a human invention.
#### A Middle Ground
Some argue for a middle ground, suggesting that while the basic elements of mathematics are discovered, the development of complex mathematical theories and the choice of which aspects to study or develop further involve human invention and creativity. This perspective acknowledges the intrinsic properties of mathematical objects while also recognizing the role of human ingenuity in shaping the field of mathematics.
#### Conclusion
The debate between discovery and invention in mathematics may never be conclusively resolved, as it touches on deep philosophical questions about the nature of reality and the human mind's relationship to it. Whether one views mathematics as discovered or invented often reflects deeper beliefs about the world and our place within it.
## Axioms
a particular mathematical system or theory. They serve as the foundational building blocks from which theorems and other mathematical truths are derived. Axioms are assumed to be self-evident, and their selection is based on their ability to produce a coherent and logically consistent framework for a body of mathematical knowledge.
In the context of different branches of mathematics, axioms can vary significantly:
- **In Euclidean geometry,** one of the most famous sets of axioms are Euclid's postulates, which include statements like "A straight line segment can be drawn joining any two points," and "All right angles are congruent."
- **In algebra,** the field axioms define the properties of operations like addition and multiplication over sets of numbers.
- **In set theory,** Zermelo-Fraenkel axioms (with the Axiom of Choice) are a set of axioms used to establish a foundation for much of modern mathematics.
The role of axioms has evolved throughout the history of mathematics. Initially, they were considered self-evident truths, but as mathematics has developed, the emphasis has shifted to viewing axioms more as arbitrary starting points chosen for their usefulness in building a mathematical theory. This shift allows for the creation of different, sometimes non-intuitive, mathematical frameworks such as non-Euclidean geometries, which arise from altering Euclid's original postulates.
**Everything in maths is constructed based on Axioms, not observation of the scientific method!** It's based only on the human logic reasoning. **And the universe doesn't five a fuck to fit inside human logic reasoning.**
<iframe title="The paradox at the heart of mathematics: Gödel's Incompleteness Theorem - Marcus du Sautoy" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/I4pQbo5MQOs?feature=oembed" height="113" width="200" allowfullscreen="" allow="fullscreen" style="aspect-ratio: 1.76991 / 1; width: 100%; height: 100%;"></iframe>
## Mathematics is not a Science
Mathematics and science are deeply interconnected, but they are distinguished by their fundamental approaches, methodologies, and objectives. The distinction between mathematics as a formal science and other natural or empirical sciences like physics, biology, and chemistry lies in the nature of their inquiry and validation methods.
**Maths doesn't need to prove itself through the scientific method, it only needs axioms, logic, and previous definitions.**
- **Mathematics:** Uses deduction as a primary tool. Starting from axioms and definitions, mathematicians use logical reasoning to derive theorems and propositions. The validity of mathematical statements is determined through proofs, which are arguments that demonstrate their truth within the context of axiomatic systems.
- **Science:** Employs the scientific method, which involves hypothesis formation, experimentation, observation, and the modification of hypotheses based on empirical evidence. Scientific theories and laws are validated by their ability to predict and explain phenomena in the natural world, and they are always subject to revision in light of new evidence.
### Objectives
- **Mathematics:** Aims to create a coherent set of rules and structures that can explain and predict outcomes within abstract systems. Its primary goal is not to describe the physical world but to explore the properties and possibilities of mathematical structures.
- **Science:** Aims to understand and describe the universe. The goal is to produce a body of knowledge that explains natural phenomena and can predict outcomes based on empirical evidence.
In summary, while mathematics is often used as a tool in science to model and solve problems, its focus on abstract reasoning and logical proof distinguishes it from the empirical methodologies of the natural sciences. This fundamental difference in approach and objective is why mathematics is considered a formal science or a branch of knowledge distinct from natural or physical sciences, which are based on empirical evidence and experimental validation.
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@ df478568:2a951e67
2025-02-22 20:29:43
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I shop the bitcoin circular economy as much as I can. Maybe "shop" isn't the best way to describe it. Shopping is a behavior typical of fiat maxis. they drive fancy leases and shop 'till they drop. This season's fashion must-have is next season's trash. Bitcoiners don't shop, we replenish supplies. Our goal is to get the best value for our sats. Our goal to hodl our sats as long as possible.
Yesterday, I shoveled a [ton of compost](nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzph68s45y080zdd9g8sdacnd6kcd4ejpwrgcju2eghjq45y4f28n8qqs24rrm3u2wvf24ad8xkj2xh8nuq2lz7urnd3lzrpqlstmsp4r29hsug39jw) for my garden. If taking showers mean's I', short bitcoin, so be it. I also happened to get my soap from Soapminer delivered to my P.O. Box the day before. What better way is there to test this soap than after shoveling some shit? It was perfect timing.
## Soapminer Sells Soap Made From Beef Tallow
Soapminer is a nostr rounder I've seen online every timestamp in a while. As the name suggests, he makes soap and sells it for sats. He's not the only soap seller on nostr, but something stands out about this soap. He uses beef tallow, the stuff McDonald's used for french fries back in the day. I use it to cook. It's basically beef lard.
So this pleb makes soap and markets it to people who talk about beef and bitcoin. That's better than Fight Club. Then [I heard Matt Odell say it was pretty good](https://fountain.fm/clip/6GHDdmcwMg47mz0xNpVb). I already thought about spending sats on this soap, but now I had a testimonial from a man I have listened to for about six years. **Can you say Web of Trust baby?**
I no soap and suds expert. I have years of soapo sing experience, but I never thought about what commercial soap is made with. I assumed it was like Fight Club like how I assumed the dollar was backed by gold in high school. Both these statements are false. Fiat soap is made with fiat fuckery. I tried looking for the ingredients on a box of Dove Men's Care, but couldn't find them on the box. It's opaque like the amount of gold at Fort Knox, nobody knows. I know what Soapminer uses to make his soap because [it's open source](nostr:note1aypyepc6g7lztutegx0fw5yg5clc9ythvxkp6czfkau3dcgwz06q4mfqr3).
### Tallow Soap Quotes
I asked Soapminer a few questions on nostr. You can find his answer here:
nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzqy9kvcxtqa2tlwyjv4r46ancxk00ghk9yaudzsnp697s60942p7lqy88wumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmv9uq3xamnwvaz7tmsw4e8qmr9wpskwtn9wvhszxrhwden5te0wa3nztnrw4e8yetwwshxu6twdfsj7qpqh7mqlhn392ekrg6nm33pjjquu0dww27tqv3qjduyag4u20er0tcqd2waxl
**That's the link that shows it was signed by his own nostr key, the Internet's version of "I approve this message."**
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**Soapminer:**
`What inspired me was a cleaner, healthier lifestyle. During the plandemic, I had a lot of free time on my hands, and got to read, and investigate what actually causes a lot of the sickness in society. I learned a great deal. I never knew that your skin is your largest organ, and that it absorbs 60-70% of what you put on it. What do ppl put on their skin almost every day? Soap. So out of boredom, and seeking a healthier lifestyle, I started watching YT videos of ppl making soap, and tried it out a few times, and then a few more, until I became good at it.
Once you learn how to make soap, the challenges only arise when you try something that you haven't done before. Depending on what method you are using will determine the challenges that you may face. It's multifaceted, so might be a little long to go into. I overcome them by keep trying until I get it right. No path is going to be easy, you just have to practice to make perfect.
Last question is easy. My favorite soap is Tallow soap. As long as it is made from Tallow, and has all natural ingredients, it is a good soap in my opinion. Tallow mirrors the oils in our skin. It doesn't strip you skin the way commercial soap do, leaving you feel itchy, dry, and actually causing some of the skin ailments that have become common, like eczema, and psoriasis. Just nutures, cleans, and protects. It also, can prevent wrinkles., and acne.`
**Sold!**
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I tried the pine tar first. It makes me smell like a man, at least my wife thinks so. That's also why she prefers the unscented. He is adding more scents, but these ate the one's I have tried.
The soap makes me feel rubber-ducky squeaky clean. After my shower, made some lunch and washed my hands with Dawn. **This made my hands ashier than bio-char**. I decided to cut some soap and place a little piece by the kitchen sink. The soap moisturized my hands in two shakes of a bull's tail. I also cut up some of my soap into smaller pieces because I'm as frugal as a Boy-scout and wanted to wash my hands with this stuff instead of Ivory. **Who wants a clean as real as Ivory? It's only 99.44% pure. Soap miner is 100% pure bitcoin signal.
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#### Here's some more quotes about Soapminer's soap.
- [He's asking his market if they want Peppermint soap.](nostr:note1tpeh65m7y6s6wt9ucjdcl2pge3m86f2ny4hqjdyvcrmf7kglqshqfeceam "nostr:note1tpeh65m7y6s6wt9ucjdcl2pge3m86f2ny4hqjdyvcrmf7kglqshqfeceam)
- [Then he made the soap like a boss](nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzqy9kvcxtqa2tlwyjv4r46ancxk00ghk9yaudzsnp697s60942p7lqqs0yqyvffu9pn39grtxa8agpftpvfssx603w0ra67kpn5qn360masquhrtd7).
- [The Benefits of Tallow](nostr:nevent1qqs9w6g8khrqzhrgu7y3trae9vtdl8847p42p80aqzvsvlu9kr84vkgpz4mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduhsyg8zenmu7gzq8ulj5jj4kv50ph3muwz43f747vmr9ld2alrjdswgavpsgqqqqqqsq5lkzq)
- [He uses Zaprite](nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzqjln5vfhstwf2ahjrmanh57kzwrap4v3xpfzql5sxp48gxlk4a74qqsraadvah6890x4hgvr4rcxe9c2n79a0kx88te3hf7x88j72rh7cuskhempa)
[He has giveaways](nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqyqzpzvke2t7fxwh0rzea5zmx7qnddzgsqk35ujp9tgpw9jmjsmnserr3z8466)
[He wants everyone to live on a bitcoin standard](nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzqy9kvcxtqa2tlwyjv4r46ancxk00ghk9yaudzsnp697s60942p7lqqs8gnddcnkj5p2047qam5drgw5jxlg60vy736e2rwxsmj593whnllsy8ej9j)
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### Testimonials

nostr:note1y9wsl07lkepfzzj8c8ucekss9f9darvg70j93cdmvttadfjx9nfsvtxwes
**The LOTSProject8**
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nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzqy9kvcxtqa2tlwyjv4r46ancxk00ghk9yaudzsnp697s60942p7lqqsxt8kyd650ph3wvhre0lwlw5s0emuv5gcfzmsvfxf7czgg4c2wynq7vg8ga
**GhostBTC**:
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nostr:npub1cm3v486tkgy6qjtk09srry4qvc40y0jysyqha5e3v67whnc22jwsrreyud
**Tuvok**
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**Bit 🐳 Ish**
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["It's good stuff, you'll love it."](nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzpr38l76unwuvm5qnrt0xa7jf64k5qx65ynvlm7dx8cr565nmqu2uqqs2r7rcp2rssfcqhk5838cuu569h43wlkvw34gy8ad2flgdpl0cezckxghkc)
**cryptoshi2k21.bitcoin**
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["Great soap 🧼🫧"](nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzqj5nelekm4aruughza09y8yy26ansshnc23wq2kdha79dqz8rhemqqsxdq4xf69vgk27nnes4syrnekpg4mhkp6v4rer7nzdgfht8kya8ssucu8lz)
**Me**
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["I spent the last two days shyoveling horse shit and compost for my garden. This soap made me feel rubber-ducky squeeky clean afterward."](nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzph68s45y080zdd9g8sdacnd6kcd4ejpwrgcju2eghjq45y4f28n8qqsfvqylk56zdh5n3ykhleypr5zznevqt9dw04vptdeuh9jmskemndgq0hw25)
##### Conclusion
I am a soap mining soap customer now. I'm done with fiat soap. I'm thinking about handing out his soap for Christmas gifts. Odell was right. It is good soap. It's expensive compared to the comercial crap, but competitive with fancy olive oil soaps I've seen. I paid with fiat I had in Strike, but Soapminer received bitcoin. I was going to buy soap anyway, but buying soap this way took $35 of fiat off Strike and put it into soap miners strategic bitcoin reserve. It's not cheap, but buying Dove requires me to first buy fiat. Buying soap from Soapminer takes sats off the exchange. Buying Dove does not, but that's not the only reason I bought this soap. It's great soap, but that's not really why I bought it. I am a big believer in what Adam Smith described as the invisible hand: [nostr:note1jsgzk6rxulyqthae8c53rrawaa70yjqh37nm3kxh08xw8g43vgcq3kux9d "nostr:note1jsgzk6rxulyqthae8c53rrawaa70yjqh37nm3kxh08xw8g43vgcq3kux9d"). We want to see people in our community to prosper. It is in our self-interest That is what Smith means by the invisible hand. The invisible hand is not A Central Bank manipulating interest rates and The IMF turning foreigners into debt-fiat slaves for cheap freshly-frozen shrimp.
Bitcoiners are my community. They may not be close to me by proximity, but my moral sentiments guide me to do business with bitcoiners whenever possible. See, capitalism cannot work with socialist money. Those moral sentiments change when people work for soft money. Fiat soap miners get paid in NGD currency. Sell soap for $35 today and that will buy you half as much stuff in 5 years. The fiat soap miner has no savings to improve his community. Inflation makes him search for the cheapest soap just to keep up with grocery prices.
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Soapminer can save his sats earned selling soap without anyone stealig from him. Therefore, he will be able to afford to buy stuff in his community. Those on a fiat standard cannot afford to save their money in the hopes of buying high quality products and services in their community. Fiat is socialist money, therefore only buys less and less as time goes on. Dear readers, we are not on late stage capitalism. The problem is that socialist money sucks. Those Papi Trump bucks might be fun for a month, but in the end, everyone pays the Piper. Tariffs are a sales tax, [paywalls in meatspace](nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzph68s45y080zdd9g8sdacnd6kcd4ejpwrgcju2eghjq45y4f28n8qyt8wumn8ghj7mn0wd68yetvd96x2uewdaexwtcpzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumt0wd68ytnsw43z7qg4waehxw309ajxjar5duh8qatz9aex2mrp0yqzqx3u59js9ewy9xwr7nuzv5eytj9ty979wrc7vrhv3tfykjxp5pd28s750n). Save your sats long enough, and these taxes will not matter. We circumvent the unjust tax of inflation, we will find solutions to unjust taxes levied on our community.
I participate in the bitcoin circular economy because I want to bring capitalism back. I do not care where you live. If you are a bitcoiner, you are part of my community. There is an invisible hand which compels me to buy stuff from people in my community. That's why I bought soap from Soapminer, but you know what? **the soap is pretty damn good**.
npub1marc26z8nh3xkj5rcx7ufkatvx6ueqhp5vfw9v5teq26z254renshtf3g0
[884,861](https://mempool.marc26z.com/block/00000000000000000001dd2088c2c20508d768455d6c29cd6b33d2a69912cafb)
[Merch](https://marc26z.com/merch)
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@ b8851a06:9b120ba1
2025-02-22 19:43:13
The digital guillotine has fallen. The Bybit hack wasn’t just a theft—it was a surgical strike exposing the fatal flaw of “crypto” that isn’t Bitcoin. This wasn’t a bug. It was a feature of a system designed to fail.
Here’s how North Korea’s Lazarus Group stole $1.5B in ETH, why “decentralized finance” is a joke, and how Bitcoin remains the only exit from this circus.
## I. The Heist: How Centralized “Crypto” Betrayed Its Users
### A. The Multisig Mousetrap (Or: Why You’re Still Using a Bank)
Bybit’s Ethereum cold wallet used multisig, requiring multiple approvals for transactions. Sounds secure, right? Wrong.
• The Con: Hackers didn’t pick the lock; they tricked the keyholders using a UI masking attack. The wallet interface showed “SEND TO BYBIT”, but the smart contract was whispering “SEND TO PYONGYANG.”
• Bitcoin Parallel: Bitcoin’s multisig is enforced on hardware, not a website UI. No browser spoofing, no phishing emails—just raw cryptography.
Ethereum’s multisig is a vault with a touchscreen PIN pad. Bitcoin’s is a mechanical safe with a key only you hold. Guess which one got robbed?
### B. Smart Contracts: Dumb as a Bag of Hammers
The thieves didn’t “hack” Ethereum—they exploited its smart contract complexity.
• Bybit’s security depended on a Safe.global contract. Lazarus simply tricked Bybit into approving a malicious upgrade.
• Imagine a vending machine that’s programmed to take your money but never give you a soda. That’s Ethereum’s “trustless” tech.
Why Bitcoin Wins: Bitcoin doesn’t do “smart contracts” in the Ethereum sense. Its scripting language is deliberately limited—less code, fewer attack vectors.
Ethereum is a Lego tower; Bitcoin is a granite slab. One topples, one doesn’t.
## II. The Laundering: Crypto’s Dirty Little Secret
### A. Mixers, Bridges, and the Art of Spycraft
Once the ETH was stolen, Lazarus laundered it at lightspeed:
1. Mixers (eXch) – Obfuscating transaction trails.
2. Bridges (Chainflip) – Swapping ETH for Bitcoin because that’s the only exit that matters.
Bitcoin Reality Check: Bitcoin’s privacy tools (like CoinJoin) are self-custodial—no third-party mixers. You keep control, not some “decentralized” website waiting to be hacked.
Ethereum’s “bridges” are burning rope ladders. Bitcoin’s privacy? An underground tunnel only you control.
### B. The $1.5B Lie: “Decentralized” Exchanges Are a Myth
Bybit’s “cold wallet” was on Safe.global—a so-called “decentralized” custodian. Translation? A website with extra steps.
• When Safe.global got breached, the private keys were stolen instantly.
• “Decentralized” means nothing if your funds depend on one website, one server, one weak link.
Bitcoin’s Answer: Self-custody. Hardware wallets. Cold storage. No trusted third parties.
Using Safe.global is like hiding your life savings in a gym locker labeled “STEAL ME.”
## III. The Culprits: State-Sponsored Hackers & Crypto’s Original Sin
### A. Lazarus Group: Crypto’s Robin Hood (For Dictators)
North Korea’s hackers didn’t break cryptography—they broke people.
• Phishing emails disguised as job offers.
• Bribes & social engineering targeting insiders.
• DeFi governance manipulation (because Proof-of-Stake is just shareholder voting in disguise).
Bitcoin’s Shield: No CEO to bribe. No “upgrade buttons” to exploit. No governance tokens to manipulate. Code is law—and Bitcoin’s law is written in stone.
Ethereum’s security model is “trust us.” Bitcoin’s is “verify.”
### B. The $3B Elephant: Altcoins Fund Dictators
Since 2017, Lazarus has stolen $3B+ in crypto, funding North Korea’s missile program.
Why? Because Ethereum, Solana, and XRP are built on Proof-of-Stake (PoS)—which centralizes power in the hands of a few rich validators.
• Bitcoin’s Proof-of-Work: Miners secure the network through energy-backed cryptography.
• Altcoins’ Proof-of-Stake: Security is dictated by who owns the most tokens.
Proof-of-Stake secures oligarchs. Proof-of-Work secures money. That’s why Lazarus can drain altcoin treasuries but hasn’t touched Bitcoin’s network.
## IV. Bybit’s Survival: A Centralized Circus
### A. The Bailout: Banks 2.0
Bybit took bridge loans from “undisclosed partners” (read: Wall Street vultures).
• Just like a traditional bank, Bybit printed liquidity out of thin air to stay solvent.
• If that sounds familiar, it’s because crypto exchanges are just banks in hoodies.
Bitcoin Contrast: No loans. No bailouts. No “trust.” Just 21 million coins, mathematically secured.
Bybit’s solvency is a confidence trick. Bitcoin’s solvency is math.
### B. The Great Withdrawal Panic
Within hours, 350,000+ users scrambled to withdraw funds.
A digital bank run—except this isn’t a bank. It’s an exchange that pretended to be decentralized.
Bitcoin fixes this: your wallet isn’t an IOU. It’s actual money.
Bybit = a TikTok influencer promising riches. Bitcoin = the gold in your basement.
## V. The Fallout: Regulators vs Reality
### A. ETH’s 8% Crash vs Bitcoin’s Unshakable Base
Ethereum tanked because it’s a tech stock, not money. Bitcoin? Dropped 2% and stabilized.
No CEO, no headquarters, no attack surface.
### B. The Regulatory Trap
Now the bureaucrats come in demanding:
1. Wallet audits (they don’t understand public ledgers).
2. Mixer bans (criminalizing privacy).
3. KYC everything (turning crypto into a surveillance state).
Bitcoin’s Rebellion: You can’t audit what’s already transparent. You can’t ban what’s unstoppable.
## VI. Conclusion: Burn the Altcoins, Stack the Sats
The Bybit hack isn’t a crypto problem. It’s an altcoin problem.
Ethereum’s smart contracts, DeFi bridges, and “decentralized” wallets are Swiss cheese for hackers. Bitcoin? A titanium vault.
The Only Lessons That Matter:
✅ Multisig isn’t enough unless it’s Bitcoin’s hardware-enforced version.
✅ Complexity kills—every altcoin “innovation” is a security risk waiting to happen.
Lazarus Group won this round because “crypto” ignored Bitcoin’s design. The solution isn’t better regulations—it’s better money.
Burn the tokens. Unplug the servers. Bitcoin is the exit.
Take your money off exchanges. Be sovereign.
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@ 378562cd:a6fc6773
2025-02-22 18:29:35
There was a time when I was a real person. I touched grass, read books made of actual paper, made eye contact with fellow humans, and didn’t panic when my pockets felt empty. Then came the screens. They infiltrated my life like a well-meaning but overly clingy houseguest who never leaves.
It started innocently enough: a quick email check, a couple of YouTube videos, and a little light doomscrolling. And then, before I knew it, my posture resembled a shrimp’s, my eyes had the dull glaze of a microwaved marshmallow, and I had unknowingly memorized the entire algorithm’s playlist of “Obscure Facts You’ll Never Need.”
I knew things had gone too far when I caught myself attempting to *swipe left* on a paperback book. Or when I instinctively tried to pinch-zoom on a restaurant menu, only to find it was printed. On paper. It's like some kind of ancient relic from the Dark Ages.
The worst part? I didn’t even know what I was doing half the time. One moment, I’d be looking up a recipe for lasagna. The next thing I knew, I was 47 minutes deep into a documentary on the mating habits of Alaskan walruses. And did I stop? Of course not. I needed to *know* how it ended! (Spoiler: The walruses were fine. My dinner was not.)
And don’t even get me started on notifications. Those little digital gremlins have mastered the art of ambush just as I’m about to put my phone down, *DING!* A breaking news alert! (Something mildly inconvenient happened in a country I can’t locate on a map.) *DING!* An email! (From a store I haven’t shopped at since 2014, reminding me they exist.) *DING!* A friend liked my post! (The one from three days ago. Thanks, Todd.)
So, I made a vow. I would reclaim my life. I would be strong. I would resist! I would—oh wait, just one more video. Then, for sure, I’ll log off. Probably. Maybe. Okay, fine, I need help.
Until then, I’ll be here, scrolling away, living my best shrimp-postured, screen-addicted life. If you need me, send a text just… not after 9 p.m. That’s when I’m deep in my nightly ritual of watching cooking videos I will never actually attempt.
I hope you enjoyed this sort of funny (in my own head) attempt at wittiness humor. I hope to make some aware of the actual real-life dangers though of too much screen time. We honestly have no idea of all the harm we are causing to our children. To our society. What happens when we all who have actually grown up playing in creeks, skipping rocks, or sitting outside and falling asleep while reading a real book pass away? What happens when those left have only known this screen-diseased life?
I pray we can go back, go way way back!
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@ b4403b24:83542d4e
2025-02-22 17:59:03
Chainflip says it has limited some frontend services but can’t fully block transactions as a decentralized protocol.
Over $1.1M in ETH has already been converted.
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**Well done to them - not for the heist but for the decision to convert weak money to sound money** 😜
originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/894141
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@ cff1720e:15c7e2b2
2025-02-22 17:45:48
Trumps Antrittsrede, seine Präsidentenerlasse, Personalentscheidungen und Amtshandlungen hatten schon in kurzer Zeit die Konturen der künftigen US-Außenpolitik erkennen lassen. Aber in München sprach der Vizepräsident auf einer bedeutenden Konferenz direkt zu den Europäern, den “Partnern” und “Verbündeten”. Und was er ihnen in aller Deutlichkeit mitteilte, war nichts anderes als eine 180-Grad Kehrtwende zur Politik der Vorgänger-Regierung. Die Botschaft war kein Vorschlag, sondern eine Ansage, die Inhalte sind inzwischen hinlänglich bekannt. Obwohl die Rede erwartungsgemäß mehr als reichlich kommentiert wurde, möchte ich noch einige Aspekte ergänzen, die ich bisher in den Kommentaren vermisst habe.
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Im November 1988 wurde die Auslieferung der sowjetischen Zeitschrift “Sputnik” in der DDR gestoppt, was einem Verbot gleichkam. Der Anlaß waren kritische Betrachtungen über Stalin und Berichte über den Hitler-Stalin-Pakt, den es laut DDR-Geschichtsschreibung nicht gab. Es war eine Zensur von Informationen aus dem Land des “großen Bruders”, der Führungsmacht der sozialistischen Welt. Das Diktum “von der Sowjetunion lernen heißt siegen lernen” galt erkennbar nicht mehr. Das war zugleich der Höhepunkt einer ideologischen Entfremdung die 1986 begonnen hatte, als Gorbatschow “Glasnost” (Offenheit) und “Perestroika” (Reformen) einforderte, welche von der vergreisten DDR-Führung als unnötig und gefährlich abgelehnt wurden. Gorbatschow hatte richtig erkannt, dass die sozialistischen Staaten ökonomisch und gesellschaftlich gescheitert waren und ohne Reformen nicht überleben würden. Die Einsicht kam aber zu spät, die DDR kollabierte bereits ein Jahr später an ihrem Reformstau, die UdSSR Ende 1991 trotz der begonnenen Reformversuche.
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Die Parallelen sind unverkennbar, eklatante politische Fehler (u.a. Euro seit 2009 und Migration seit 2015) haben die EU-Staaten zunächst zu Sanierungsfällen gemacht, durch die Corona-Politik zu Insolvenzkandidaten. Der Rubikon ist längst überschritten, die Schönwetter-Union ist nicht mehr zu retten. Den Amerikanern ist das klar, daher sind die Reform-Appelle von Vance wohl eher seiner Höflichkeit zuzurechnen. Für die US-Regierung ist die EU bereits jetzt nicht mehr existent, Verträge werden wieder direkt mit den Mitglieds-Staaten getroffen, und in den Ukraine-Verhandlungen ist kein Platz am Verhandlungstisch. Die Themenbereiche bei den Gesprächen in Riad haben aber auch gezeigt, dass Amerikaner und Russen in global-strategischen Dimensionen denken, die Ukraine ist zurecht nur ein Randthema. Die aktuelle Rhetorik europäischer Politiker hingegen ist niveaulos und kleinkariert, man spielt in der 2. Liga, die EU hat sich selbst vom Akteur zum Objekt degradiert.
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Was bedeutet das für unsere Zukunft? Und was ist von der neuen US-Führung zu erwarten? Die unsäglichen Diskussionen darüber ob nun Trump und Musk gut oder böse sind, vernebelt nur eine klare Tatsache. Die EU hat keinen Rückhalt mehr vom “großen Bruder”, weder durch die NATO in Sachen Ukraine, noch durch Zensur von Systemkritikern (USAID, BigTech). Letzteres führt zu drei fundamentalen Veränderungen.\
\
1\. Das Narrativ von den “westlichen Werten” ist tot. Auf diesem Axiom der USA basierte die gesamte Propaganda-Maschine, es wurde zur Religion. Nun versuchen gerade Provinzpolitiker wie Pistorius und Habeck mit beschränkten rhetorischen Mitteln zu definieren was “westliche Werte” ohne die USA sind, was mehr für Begeisterung bei Satirikern beiträgt als zur Überzeugung von Tagesschau-Anhängern.\
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2\. Die Deutungshoheit geht verloren weil immer mehr Publizisten ihr Fähnchen in den sich drehenden Wind hängen, sofern sie noch von Leser-Abos und Werbekunden abhängig sind. Die einsetzende Kakophonie verwirrt die Masse der schlichten Medien-Konsumenten, die über Jahrzehnte auf Nachrichten-Konformität dressiert worden sind. \
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3\. Weniger Zensur in den sozialen Medien verschafft den kritischen Stimmen mehr Reichweite, “bedrohliche” Meinungsvielfalt entsteht. Leider können die meisten Kritiker aber nur kritisieren, was uns zurück in die Zeiten des Sputnik-Verbots führt.
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Die DDR-Opposition hat beim Abriss der DDR mitgewirkt, über diese Rolle ist sie aber nie hinaus gekommen. Als die Mauer gefallen war und es um die Neugestaltung ging, hat sie kläglich versagt. Dem Großteil der heutigen Opposition droht das selbe Schicksal, weil sie keinen Plan für die Stunde Null hat. Bei Tauwetter darf man nicht mehr über den Winter diskutieren, sondern über das Bestellen der Felder. Wer die Saat ausbringt, entscheidet über die Ernte. Den Kollaps betreffend ist nur noch der Zeitpunkt unklar, für den Zeitraum danach jedoch alles. Wenn wir uns eine Bürgergesellschaft wünschen, dann müssen wir jetzt als Bürger aktiv werden, also DU, Leser. Spende für Pareto, oder für kritische Autoren und Aktivisten. Mach Dir Gedanken über die Zukunft und publiziere sie, hier auf Pareto, wir fördern den Bürger-Journalismus. Schließe Dich einem Projekt an, leiste einen Beitrag und gestalte die Zukunft. Macht wird nicht verteilt, Macht muss man sich erkämpfen.\
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**“Nur der verdient sich Freiheit wie das Leben, der täglich sie erobern muß.”** Goethe, Faust Teil 2
**Spenden für Pareto:** <https://geyser.fund/project/pareto>
**Pareto Landing Page:** <https://pareto.space> 
**Pareto Marktplatz:** <https://pareto.space/read> 
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@ 129f5189:3a441803
2025-02-22 17:11:57
**This is Lazarus.**
They’ve just stolen $1.46 billion from Bybit.
They didn’t breach the code—they breached the people.
Here’s the untold story of how they did it (and why no one is truly safe).
https://image.nostr.build/5120f62c63199bbc1402c1c33c11d337ab9c5623ce78d7351025fcbb9b14c27e.jpg
Lazarus is a state-sponsored hacking group from North Korea.
They've siphoned billions from banks, crypto exchanges, and DeFi protocols.
And now, they’ve executed the largest crypto heist in history.
But how? Well...
https://image.nostr.build/5ecefbb02468cea4ca1b89fdd51835921d15161fc992095d44005003c5f5ddc7.jpg
There was no code exploit.
No leaked private keys.
Bybit’s own multisig signers approved the transactions.
They thought they were signing a routine transfer.
Instead, they handed over access to their entire cold wallet...
https://video.nostr.build/0e92d71c6dba6d99532b4b126c5e42001a8c446d1e312539fa9a3fad8c52d851.mp4
This raises a terrifying question.
How did Lazarus know exactly who to target?
A multisig wallet requires multiple signers.
If even one refused to sign, the hack would have failed.
But they all signed.
This means Lazarus didn’t just hack Bybit...
They knew who to manipulate.
There are only a few ways to gather that kind of information:
- **Inside job** – Someone leaked the signer list.
- **Social engineering** – Lazarus studied their emails and behavior.
- **Device compromise** – One or more signers were infected with malware.
This puts other exchanges at risk too...
https://image.nostr.build/a80694326818292e24e26def7ffddbea45bc2f41384b3563c3217c1a1d53a353.jpg
Today, Lazarus stole 0.42% of all Ethereum.
This means they own more than:
- The Ethereum Foundation
- Vitalik Buterin
- Fidelity
But laundering that much ETH without detection isn’t easy...
https://image.nostr.build/331d83a66c362801b91d42b1aba1b658dc1b35d25a156255d312b483421d4449.jpg
In previous attacks, Lazarus has used:
- Bridging to other blockchains
- On-chain mixing services
- OTC trading through illicit brokers
Will they employ the same tactics again?
https://video.nostr.build/c25c686a1ce4d71ad7e0efebf02b1d6bcb05ac0f23438d11e4380ebe53aa6526.mp4
Investigators quickly flagged the 53 wallets holding the stolen ETH.
Any attempt to cash out or swap funds would immediately raise red flags.
But Lazarus is in no rush...
https://image.nostr.build/2ebfb985c7d7abe4e2715f505ed64c227b908bbbc85b20630fc7437f391a0bb4.jpg
In 2022, Chainalysis found Lazarus still held $55 million from hacks six years earlier.
They don’t cash out quickly; they wait.
And no one has ever gotten their money back. Not once.
Lazarus doesn’t negotiate. They don’t return funds.
So what happens to users?
https://image.nostr.build/3d4738f4d0db5a14c6dd71f32c54d56b061c6e8896134de579cc36867f7175bd.jpg
Bybit’s CEO, Ben Zhou, addressed the crisis publicly:
- “Client funds are 1:1 backed.”
- “We have enough liquidity to cover withdrawals.”
- “All other wallets remain secure.”
So far, there hasn’t been a bank run...
https://video.nostr.build/25616f50b774296945681a3455939f62af623f68081a651209fd89392f778d91.mp4
But this isn’t the first time this has happened.
And it won’t be the last.
So how can you stay safe? Follow these simple steps:
1. **Cold wallets stay cold** - If it touches the internet, it's not cold.
2. **Never sign blindly** - Always verify what you're signing, even if the UI looks legit.
3. **Spread your risk** - Never keep all your funds in one place.
4. **Secure your keys** - Use a hardware wallet. No exceptions.
5. **Assume you're a target** - Lazarus doesn’t hack systems; they hack people. Stay paranoid.
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@ a012dc82:6458a70d
2025-02-22 15:51:37
Bitcoin, the pioneering cryptocurrency, has always been known for its volatility. This digital asset has seen dramatic fluctuations in price, attracting investors and speculators alike. Understanding these price movements is crucial for anyone involved in the crypto market. The journey of Bitcoin from a niche digital token to a mainstream financial asset has been marked by periods of rapid growth and sudden declines. This volatility is not just a source of risk, but also of potential opportunity for traders and investors. The factors driving these fluctuations range from regulatory news, technological advancements, to broader economic factors. Bitcoin's decentralized nature adds to its unpredictability, as it operates independently of a central bank or government.
**Table of Contents**
- The Recent Price Rally and Subsequent Halt
- Insights from CryptoQuant's Analysis
- The Role of Short-Term Holders
- Understanding Bitcoin Binary Coin Days Destroyed ( …
- The Dynamics of Profit-Taking
- Actions by Miners and Whales
- Current Market Scenario and Future Outlook
- Conclusion
- FAQs
**The Recent Price Rally and Subsequent Halt**
In a recent surge, Bitcoin's value soared past the $44,000 mark, only to encounter a significant resistance level near $45,000. This resistance led to a notable decline in its price. The question on everyone's mind is: what caused this sudden halt in Bitcoin's otherwise steady climb? This rally, like many in Bitcoin's past, was driven by a mix of investor optimism, favorable market conditions, and increasing institutional interest in cryptocurrency. However, the resistance at $45,000 proved to be a turning point, sparking a wave of sell-offs and profit-taking. This price behavior is a classic example of the market's psychological dynamics, where key resistance levels can lead to significant shifts in investor behavior. The rapid change from a bullish to a bearish market sentiment at this juncture underscores the fragile and speculative nature of the cryptocurrency market.
**Insights from CryptoQuant's Analysis**
CryptoQuant, a renowned market analytics platform, offers valuable insights into this phenomenon. An analyst from CryptoQuant, Yonsei, conducted a detailed analysis of on-chain data to unravel the mystery behind Bitcoin's recent price behavior. This analysis goes beyond surface-level market trends, delving into the intricate movements of Bitcoin across various wallets and exchanges. By examining metrics such as fund flows, wallet activities, and transaction patterns, CryptoQuant provides a more nuanced understanding of what drives Bitcoin's price changes. Yonsei's analysis, in particular, sheds light on the behavior of different investor cohorts, revealing how their actions collectively impact the market. This kind of deep-dive analysis is essential for anyone looking to understand the often opaque mechanisms of cryptocurrency markets.
**The Role of Short-Term Holders**
The analysis revealed that short-term holders, particularly those who had invested in Bitcoin for a period ranging from 6 to 18 months, started to realize their profits as soon as Bitcoin broke through the $40,000 resistance level. This profit-taking was a primary factor in the subsequent price retraction. These short-term holders, often more sensitive to market fluctuations, tend to react quickly to price changes, looking to capitalize on short-term gains. Their collective actions can create significant market movements, as seen in this instance. The behavior of these investors is often influenced by news events, market sentiment, and technical indicators. In this case, the rapid rise in Bitcoin's price likely triggered a psychological response to lock in profits, leading to a cascade of sell orders. Understanding the motivations and behaviors of these short-term holders is crucial for predicting short-term market movements in the volatile world of cryptocurrency.
**Understanding Bitcoin Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD)**
A critical metric in this analysis is the Bitcoin Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD). This metric assesses the movement of long-held Bitcoins, providing insights into the behavior of long-term investors. An increase in Binary CDD indicates that a significant amount of Bitcoin, held dormant for a long time, has been mobilized, suggesting a sell-off by long-term holders. This metric is particularly important as it highlights the actions of the most steadfast part of the market - those who have held Bitcoin through various cycles. When these long-term holders start moving their coins, it often signals a significant shift in market sentiment. The CDD metric thus serves as a barometer for the conviction of Bitcoin's long-term investor base. A high CDD can indicate a loss of confidence among these investors, or a belief that the market has reached a peak. Conversely, a low CDD suggests that long-term holders are not yet ready to sell, indicating continued confidence in the market's future.
**The Dynamics of Profit-Taking**
The CryptoQuant analysis further highlighted that a majority of Bitcoin holders were in profit, with the Spent Output Profit Ratio remaining above one. This indicated that about 90% of Bitcoin holders were profiting, which naturally led to a trend of profit-taking. This phenomenon is a key aspect of market cycles in cryptocurrencies. When a large portion of investors are in profit, especially after a significant price rally, the market often sees a wave of selling as investors look to cash in on their gains. This behavior is compounded by psychological factors, such as fear of missing out (FOMO) and fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), which can lead to rapid shifts in market sentiment. Additionally, the profit-taking trend is influenced by external factors such as global economic conditions, regulatory news, and technological developments within the blockchain space. These factors can either reinforce the confidence of investors, leading to a hold strategy, or trigger a sell-off in anticipation of a market downturn.
**Actions by Miners and Whales**
Another interesting aspect of the analysis was the behavior of Bitcoin miners and whales (large-scale holders). These groups also contributed to the selling pressure. Miners, in particular, sold their assets at high-profit margins when Bitcoin reached its peak, adding to the downward pressure on its price. The actions of miners are crucial to understanding Bitcoin's market dynamics, as they are not only investors but also the producers of new Bitcoins. Their decision to sell or hold can significantly impact the supply of Bitcoin in the market. Whales, or large-scale holders, have a similar impact due to the sheer volume of their transactions. Their trades can lead to substantial market movements, creating waves that affect smaller investors. The behavior of these whales often reflects a more strategic approach to the market, influenced by long-term trends and broader market analysis. Their actions can serve as indicators for future market movements, making their behavior a key focus for analysts and investors alike.
**Current Market Scenario and Future Outlook**
Despite the recent price drop, the overall market sentiment remains positive. The bear market seems to be in the past, and liquidity conditions in the crypto market are improving. However, Bitcoin currently hovers around the $41,000 mark, a slight decrease from its recent high. This current state reflects the ever-changing nature of the cryptocurrency market, where investor sentiment can shift rapidly. The future outlook for Bitcoin remains a topic of much debate among experts. Some predict continued growth as institutional adoption increases and blockchain technology becomes more integrated into mainstream finance. Others caution about potential regulatory clampdowns and the volatile nature of the market. What remains clear is that Bitcoin continues to be a key player in the financial world, with its price movements being a barometer for the health and sentiment of the broader cryptocurrency market.
**Conclusion**
Bitcoin's market behavior, as analyzed by CryptoQuant, offers a complex picture of various factors at play. The interplay between short-term and long-term holders, the strategic moves of miners and whales, and the overall market sentiment all contribute to the price dynamics of this digital currency. Understanding these elements is key for investors and enthusiasts who wish to navigate the volatile waters of Bitcoin's market. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, keeping a close eye on these trends and analyses will be crucial for making informed decisions in the world of cryptocurrency. The insights provided by platforms like CryptoQuant are invaluable in this regard, offering a deeper understanding of the market forces at work.
**FAQs**
**What caused the recent halt in Bitcoin's price rally?**
The halt in Bitcoin's price rally, after reaching near $45,000, was primarily due to profit-taking by short-term holders and investors who had held Bitcoin for 6-18 months, as revealed by CryptoQuant's analysis.
**What is Bitcoin Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD)?**
Bitcoin Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) is a metric that measures the movement of long-held Bitcoins. It indicates the amount of Bitcoin, held dormant for a long time, that has been mobilized or sold.
**How do miners and whales influence Bitcoin's price?**
Miners and whales (large-scale holders) significantly influence Bitcoin's price through their actions. When they sell their holdings, especially during peak prices, they add to the market's selling pressure, potentially leading to price drops.
**What does a high Bitcoin Binary CDD indicate?**
A high Bitcoin Binary CDD suggests that a large amount of long-held Bitcoin is being sold, which can be a sign of long-term holders losing confidence or deciding to take profits.
**Is the current market sentiment for Bitcoin positive or negative?**
Despite recent price fluctuations, the overall market sentiment for Bitcoin remains cautiously positive, with improvements in market liquidity and interest from institutional investors.
**That's all for today**
**If you want more, be sure to follow us on:**
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***DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.***
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@ 1739d937:3e3136ef
2025-02-22 14:51:17
We've been busy. In my last update, I shared that I was sure MLS on Nostr was going to work and shared an early demo of the app. What a long time ago that seems now.
The big news is that White Noise is no longer just a demo. It's a real app. You can [download the alpha release](https://github.com/erskingardner/whitenoise/releases) and run it for yourself on MacOS, Linux, or Android. iOS TestFlight is coming soon. Keep in mind that it's still very much alpha software; a lot is changing and I wouldn't recommend using it for anything serious quite yet.
We've been busy. In my last update, I shared that I was sure MLS on Nostr was going to work and shared an early demo of the app. What a long time ago that seems now.
## Vision
Before we get to the detailed project updates, I wanted to share a bit of my vision for White Noise.
More and more; freedom of speech, freedom of association, and privacy are under attack. Just this week, Apple was forced to remove their iCloud advanced encryption feature for all UK citizens because the UK government demanded that Apple build a backdoor to allow access to customer data. The EU continues to push "Chat Control" legislation that would force companies to remove end-to-end encryption from their platforms. And governments across the world are enforcing draconian "hate speech" laws that criminalize speech that offends or upsets.
The freedom to express ourselves and discuss difficult topics is a critical precondition for maintaining a healthy society. Without the ability to assert ideas and argue their merits vigorously we have no way of making progress or creating a civil society based on shared values and goals. Ironically, the very laws and regulations that many western governments are enforcing to "protect" us are eroding and destroying the most free and innovative societies in history.
White Noise is to built to protect our freedom to gather, to express ourselves, and to discuss difficult topics. It's free and open source; anyone can fork the code and we'll never charge money to use it. It runs on a free and open source protocol; your identity and social graph is yours to own and control. You don't have to trust us with your data, everything is end-to-end encrypted and metadata is next to non-existent. We don't even run any servers, so government data requests will forever fall on deaf ears.
We want to build the fastest, most secure and private, and the most usable messenger in the world. Whether you want to use it to plan a family BBQ or overthrow a tyrant, White Noise should give you the tools you need to make it happen.
If you find this compelling and want to help, please consider contributing to the project or donating.
## Progress
Alright, let's talk about where we're at with the project.
### Current functionality
- Multiple accounts. You can login, or create, many different Nostr accounts in the app.
- Search your nostr contact list, search for users you don't follow, or add contacts using an npub or hex public key.
- Create DM groups. Right now, you can only create chats with a single other user. Under the hood, these DMs are actually groups, I just haven't added the UI for adding/removing users and managing the group.
- Send messages, reply to messages, and add reactions. As you would expect from a messenging app.
- View group information.
- Settings that allows you to manage your accounts, relays, and other app settings.
### Upcoming
- An amazing hackathon group from [Bitcoin++ in Brasil](https://btcplusplus.dev/conf/floripa) has recently [added NWC](https://github.com/erskingardner/whitenoise/pull/89) (nostr wallet connect) support to the app. Paste lightning invoices into chats and they'll become QR codes that you can scan or pay them with a single click in the conversation! This will be in the next release.
- Add support for encrypted media in chats using [Blossom](https://github.com/hzrd149/blossom/tree/master). We'll start with images, but plan to add video, audio messages, and documents soon.
- Groups with more than two users. We'll add the ability to add/remove users and manage the group. This will also include some upgrades to further improve the forward secrecy of group chats.
- iOS TestFlight. Gated app stores suck. We'll get White Noise on iOS into TestFlight as soon as possible.
## Links
- [The repo](https://github.com/erskingardner/whitenoise)
- [Releases](https://github.com/erskingardner/whitenoise/releases)
- [Previous updates](https://highlighter.com/jeffg.fyi)
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@ 2e8970de:63345c7a
2025-02-22 14:41:31
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-Blue: Neuroticism
-Green: Extraversion
-Red: Openness to experience
-Orange: Agreeableness
-Purple: Conscientiousness
[sourcs(https://www.stevestewartwilliams.com/p/are-there-age-and-sex-differences)]
originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/893992
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@ ac6f9572:8a6853dd
2025-02-22 13:01:56
# The old world crumbles. The sovereign rises.
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Join #Bitshala at #BitPlebs Summit in Goa — a gathering of builders, creators, educators, and hodlers forging #India’s #Bitcoin future.
Open forums. Un-conference style talks. By @bitshala & @plebstogether
RSVP now: https://lu.ma/cd55r5d4
X: https://x.com/bitshala_org/status/1893252853709365684?s=09
originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/893899
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@ c384de42:493922aa
2025-02-22 12:27:08
I've had a weird thought.
Relating to bitcoin and maths and gambling.
I understand none of the above, but found some weird convoluted logic in the fact that 52 cards in a deck and two six faced dice equate to 12 faces, idk.. I lost track of the logical steps in my mind, it may have been a delusion..
But the conclusion, of whatever it was is, kill myself at some point with end result living forever in samsara, or choose the natural progression of life into death, if there is such a thing...
Weird..
It had something to do with gambling and drugs and addiction, like the plug-in drugs in the Ringworld novels by Larry Niven, or the simulation machines in the Paul Verhoeven film, Total Recall, with Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Strange thoughts...