@ df478568:2a951e67

In [my Soapminer article](https://habla.news/u/marc@primal.net/washing-the-invisible-hand-with-soapminer), I added quotes from various plebs. I earned over 12,000 sats! That's enough for a McJunk today, but maybe a steak dinner in a few years. That's my two sats anyway. *This is not investment advice* It feels great to receive value from people who support and appreciate your work. It's also nice to stack more sats by writing. I have a budget of $25.00 that I have sent to various people using Zapplanner, but I'm trying something new: Zapsplits. ## WTF Are Zapsplits? I asked [Unleashed.chat](https://unleashed.chat). Here's what the anthropomorphic Unleashed said. Me: What is a Zapsplit on nostr?  Unleashed: A Zapsplit on Nostr refers to splitting a Zap, which is a form of donation or tipping on the ~platform~ protocol, among multiple recipients. **It allows users to distribute their support more broadly across various content creators instead of just one**. That's more succinct than I would put it, but nostr is a protocol, not a platform. The important part about Zapsplits for me is that it removes the cognitive cost of deciding what percentage of my giving budget should go to each creator. Do I zap podcast guests? Do podcasters with ads get less than podcasters sans ads? How much value did this particular article bring me? If I zap Guy Swann, should I also zap the authors he reads? Should I zap long-form articles more than micro-blogs? There are 21 million different considerations. Zapsplits removes all this from me because I can use the following algorithm.  ### Does This Person Provide Me Value? Yes ⬇️ I add them to my Zapsplit post for that month. A portion of my monthly zapping budget, 25 dirty-fiat bucks, transforms into magic Internet money and is distributed among everyone in the Zapsplit. No ⬇️ If I don't get any value, I don't send value. Simple. #### Testing Zapsplits I added podcasters and devs to a nostr post and enabled a 10-way zapsplit on the post. It's based on [prisms](https://www.nobsbitcoin.com/lightning-prism-nostr/), a little nostr feature that gives me prose writing superpowers. 1. I can earn sats for writing. 2. I can support others with a single zap. 3. I can add people who give me quotes to my zap splits. People appreciate attribution. I suspect they will appreciate it more if they also get paid. What if I added some quotes to an article and then split any zaps I get with the quoted plebs? Come to think of it, I'll try it. [Here's a quote from a dev on nostr](nostr:note1qf4277rudtflllrjr555890xsjp6u60f7xdvclkwc9t220duajeq0x665q I added Silberangel to the Zapsplits on Habla.news. My [V4V](https://blog.getalby.com/the-case-for-value-4-value/) payments can also get sent to ten different plebs with a simple click of a button. I am going to start using this for a lot of my monthly V4V budget. Every month, I'll think about the people's content I value most and add them to a single zapsplit payment. Then, I'll zap the post. Say I create a poll and make a wager with ten different people. If I lose, I can pay everyone pit at the same time. This is probably better for a football pool, but you get the idea. The options are limited only by your imagination.  nostr:nevent1qqspnhucgxc6mprhw36fe2242hzv7zumavyy7dhzjswtldhxk4dh7ugpz4mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduhsygxlg7zks3uauf454q7phhzdh2mpkhxg9cdrzt3t9z7gzksj49g7vupsgqqqqqqsl5uwfl Other people can also zap the post. As Siberangel says, we can use other people's money to provide value, too. This is a great option for stacking neophytes, people who don't have much bitcoin or cheap skates. Let's be honest, bitcoin has made most of us cheapskates. Bitcoin books with multiple authors can have QR codes that link to one of these Zapsplit posts. The authors can do a book signing and sell their books using this on nostr. Nerds like me can get three autographs and zap the book. The sats are split among all authors. Here's a Zapsplit that includes all the authors of Parallel.  Can you think of any other ways to use Zapsplits? Let me know. npub1marc26z8nh3xkj5rcx7ufkatvx6ueqhp5vfw9v5teq26z254renshtf3g0 [885,610](https://mempool.marc26z.com/block/00000000000000000000742c0f980fcfcbd25fade47c3ebcfd69eda93f6861c7) [Merch](https://marc26z.com/merch/)

@ 43baaf0c:d193e34c

eARThist vlog name represents the fusion of Earth and Art and me as traveling artist. I'm kicking off my vlogging journey with my first vlog, Bangkok Lightning Tour. My goal with vlogging is to share more about my art journey as I travel the world. After years of traveling and filming around the world, I’m now fully focused on my art. However, filming and photography remaining a passion of mine. I also create still some travel content for my company, @traveltelly, whenever I’m not drawing.  After spending time creating art around the world, this feels like the natural next step sharing more behind the scenes moments of both traveling and my artist life.  I started in Bangkok, a city I often visit and where I’ve spent the last five months creating the BangPOP art. Teaming up with Sats ‘n’ Facts, I explored Bangkok to see how Bitcoin Lightning adoption is growing here. Bitcoin has given me the freedom to create art, so I wanted to see if it’s also helping others in Bangkok. On a scorching 35°C day, we filmed three places where you can pay with Bitcoin Lightning. You can find these locations on btcmap.org.  I’m leaving Bangkok soon, but more vlogs from Thailand will follow when I return. I always find my way back to the Land of Smiles.

@ a012dc82:6458a70d

Bitcoin, since its creation by the enigmatic figure Satoshi Nakamoto, has revolutionized the concept of currency. Its journey from an obscure digital token to a major financial asset has been marked by dramatic bull runs, capturing the attention of investors worldwide. These surges in Bitcoin's value are not random but are driven by a combination of technological innovation, economic factors, and unique monetary policy. In this article, we explore the intricacies of Bitcoin's scarcity, the halving process, and the broader market dynamics that contribute to its periodic bull runs. The allure of Bitcoin lies not just in its technological novelty but also in its challenge to traditional financial systems. It represents a decentralized form of currency, free from government control and manipulation. This aspect has been particularly appealing in times of economic uncertainty, where traditional currencies and markets have shown vulnerability. Bitcoin's bull runs can be seen as a barometer of the changing landscape of finance, reflecting a growing shift towards digital assets. **Table of Contents** - The Concept of Scarcity in Bitcoin - Finite Supply - Impact on Value - The Halving Events - Mechanism and Purpose - Historical Impact on Price - Market Dynamics and Investor Sentiment - Institutional Investment - Global Economic Factors - Technological Advancements - Regulatory Environment - Conclusion - FAQs **The Concept of Scarcity in Bitcoin** **Finite Supply** Bitcoin's protocol ensures that only 21 million coins will ever be in existence. This limit is encoded in its blockchain, making it a deflationary asset as opposed to inflationary fiat currencies. The idea behind this is to create a form of money that can resist inflationary pressures over time, much like gold, which has maintained its value for centuries due to its scarcity. **Impact on Value** The scarcity of Bitcoin has a profound psychological impact on investors. It creates a sense of urgency and a fear of missing out (FOMO) as the available supply dwindles. This is particularly evident as each Bitcoin halving event approaches, reminding the market of the ever-decreasing new supply. The result is often a speculative rally, as seen in the past bull runs. Moreover, as Bitcoin becomes more scarce, its comparison to gold becomes increasingly apt, attracting investors who are looking for assets that can retain value over time. Scarcity also plays into the hands of long-term investors, often referred to as 'HODLers' in the crypto community. These investors view Bitcoin as a long-term store of value, akin to an investment in precious metals. The limited supply of Bitcoin reassures these investors that their holdings will not be devalued through oversupply, a common problem in fiat currencies. **The Halving Events** **Mechanism and Purpose** Bitcoin's halving is a genius mechanism that ensures a controlled and gradual distribution of coins. By reducing the mining reward by half every four years, Bitcoin mimics the process of extracting a natural resource like gold, becoming progressively harder and more resource-intensive to mine. This not only controls inflation but also adds to the scarcity, making each coin more valuable over time. **Historical Impact on Price** Each halving event has historically led to an increase in Bitcoin's price, though not immediately. There is typically a lag between the halving and the subsequent bull run. This delay can be attributed to market adjustment and the gradual realization of reduced supply. The anticipation of this price increase often starts a positive feedback loop, attracting more investors and further driving up the price. The halving events serve as key milestones in Bitcoin's timeline, providing a predictable pattern of supply reduction that savvy investors monitor closely. These events have become celebratory moments within the Bitcoin community, symbolizing the strength and resilience of the network. They also serve as a reminder of Bitcoin's unique value proposition in the world of cryptocurrencies. **Market Dynamics and Investor Sentiment** **Institutional Investment** The recent years have seen a paradigm shift with the entry of institutional investors into the Bitcoin market. This shift is significant as it marks a departure from Bitcoin's early days of being a niche asset for tech enthusiasts. Institutional investors bring with them not only large capital inflows but also a sense of legitimacy and stability to the market. Their involvement has been a key driver in the maturation of the cryptocurrency market, making it more appealing to a broader audience. **Global Economic Factors** The role of global economic factors in influencing Bitcoin's price cannot be overstated. In times of economic instability, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic, investors increasingly turned to Bitcoin as a safe haven asset. This trend is indicative of a growing recognition of Bitcoin's value as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. The decentralized nature of Bitcoin makes it less susceptible to geopolitical tensions and policy changes that affect traditional currencies and markets. **Technological Advancements** The continuous evolution of blockchain technology and the infrastructure surrounding Bitcoin has played a crucial role in its adoption. Developments such as improved transaction speed, enhanced security measures, and user-friendly trading platforms have made Bitcoin more accessible and attractive to a wider audience. These technological advancements are crucial in building investor confidence and facilitating the integration of Bitcoin into mainstream finance. **Regulatory Environment** The regulatory environment for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies has been a double-edged sword. On one hand, clear and supportive regulations in certain jurisdictions have provided a boost to the market, encouraging institutional participation and providing clarity for investors. On the other hand, regulatory crackdowns in some countries have led to market volatility and uncertainty. The ongoing development of a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies remains a key factor in shaping Bitcoin's future. **Conclusion** Bitcoin's journey is a testament to the evolving nature of finance and investment in the digital age. Its bull runs, driven by scarcity, halving events, and a complex interplay of market dynamics, highlight the growing acceptance of cryptocurrencies as a legitimate asset class. As the world increasingly embraces digital currencies, Bitcoin's role as a pioneer and standard-bearer will likely continue to influence its value and relevance in the global financial landscape. Understanding Bitcoin's market dynamics is not just about analyzing charts and trends. It's about appreciating the broader context of economic, technological, and social changes that are reshaping the way we think about money and value. For investors and enthusiasts alike, staying informed and adaptable is key to navigating the exciting and often unpredictable world of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. **FAQs** **What causes a Bitcoin bull run?** Bitcoin bull runs are typically driven by a combination of factors including its built-in scarcity due to the finite supply, halving events reducing the mining rewards, institutional investment, global economic factors, advancements in blockchain technology, and the evolving regulatory landscape. **How does Bitcoin's scarcity affect its value?** Bitcoin's value is significantly influenced by its scarcity. With a capped supply of 21 million coins, as demand increases, the limited supply pushes the price upwards, similar to precious metals like gold. **What is a Bitcoin halving event?** A Bitcoin halving event is when the reward for mining new Bitcoin blocks is halved, effectively reducing the rate at which new Bitcoins are created. This occurs approximately every four years and is a key factor in Bitcoin's deflationary model. **Why do institutional investors matter in Bitcoin's market?** Institutional investors bring significant capital, credibility, and stability to the Bitcoin market. Their participation signals a maturation of the market and can lead to increased confidence and investment from other sectors. **That's all for today** **If you want more, be sure to follow us on:** **NOSTR: croxroad@getalby.com** **X: [@croxroadnewsco](https://x.com/croxroadnewsco)** **Instagram: [@croxroadnews.co/](https://www.instagram.com/croxroadnews.co/)** **Youtube: [@thebitcoinlibertarian](https://www.youtube.com/@thebitcoinlibertarian)** **Store: https://croxroad.store** **Subscribe to CROX ROAD Bitcoin Only Daily Newsletter** **https://www.croxroad.co/subscribe** **Get Orange Pill App And Connect With Bitcoiners In Your Area. Stack Friends Who Stack Sats link: https://signup.theorangepillapp.com/opa/croxroad** **Buy Bitcoin Books At Konsensus Network Store. 10% Discount With Code “21croxroad” link: https://bitcoinbook.shop?ref=21croxroad** *DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.*

@ 732c6a62:42003da2

 > De acordo com a Forbes, a Ripple (Empresa responsável pela Criptomoeda XRP) tem financiado e apoiado campanhas contra a mineração de Bitcoin. ## **Por que Ripple faz propaganda anti-bitcoin?** Simples: **eles são o oposto do Bitcoin em quase tudo.** Enquanto o Bitcoin foi criado para ser descentralizado, resistente à censura e independente de instituições, o Ripple é basicamente um serviço bancário 2.0. Eles precisam atacar o Bitcoin para justificar sua própria existência. ## **O que você não sabe:** 1. **Ripple Labs controla a maioria do XRP:** Eles têm um estoque estratégico que pode ser liberado no mercado a qualquer momento. Isso é o oposto de descentralização. 2. **XRP não é uma moeda para "pessoas comuns":** Foi criada para bancos e instituições financeiras. Basicamente, é o "banco central" das criptomoedas. 3. **Ripple não é blockchain no sentido tradicional:** Eles usam um protocolo chamado **Ripple Protocol Consensus Algorithm (RPCA)**, que é mais rápido, mas menos descentralizado. ## **Os principais ataques do Ripple ao Bitcoin:** 1. **Anti-mineração:** O Ripple critica o consumo de energia do Bitcoin, mas esquece que seu próprio sistema depende de servidores centralizados que também consomem energia. 2. **Anti-reserva estratégica:** O Ripple tem um estoque gigante de XRP, mas critica o Bitcoin por ser "deflacionário". Hipocrisia? Nunca ouvi falar. 3. **Anti-descentralização:** O Ripple prega que a descentralização do Bitcoin é "ineficiente", mas o que eles realmente querem é manter o controle nas mãos de poucos. ## **Análise Psicológica Básica (para você que acha que XRP é o futuro):** - **Síndrome do Underdog:** Acha que apoiar o Ripple te faz um rebelde, mas na verdade você está torcendo para o sistema bancário tradicional. - **Viés de Confirmação:** Só ouve opiniões que validam sua decisão de comprar XRP. - **Efeito Dunning-Kruger:** Acha que entender Ripple te torna um especialista em criptomoedas, mas não sabe o que é um *hard fork*. **Estudo de Caso (Real, mas Você Vai Ignorar):** Carlos, 30 anos, comprou XRP porque "é o futuro das transações bancárias". Ele não sabe que o Ripple está sendo processado pela SEC por vender XRP como um título não registrado. Carlos agora está esperando o "pump" que nunca vem. ## **Conclusão: ou, "volte para a aula de economia do ensino médio"** Ripple não é o futuro das finanças. É só mais um player tentando lucrar em um mercado competitivo. E sua propaganda anti-Bitcoin? Essa só prova que **a descentralização assusta quem quer controle**. Agora vá estudar blockchain básico — ou pelo menos pare de compartilhar memes com erros de português.

@ b83a28b7:35919450

## **Preamble** *I used OpenAI's o3-mini reasoning engine to construct a thesis for the Russia-Ukraine conflict using the positions of Jeffery Sachs and John Mearsheimer. I then asked it to create a counterargument to those positions- the antithesis. And I finally asked for a synthesis that concludes in lasting peace in the region. In all three cases, I prompted it to only use axiomatic deductive reasoning and first principles thinking, emphasizing facts and ignoring the opinions and assertions of so-called experts.* # The Thesis ## **John Mearsheimer's Position: A Realist Perspective** ### **First Principles** 1. **States prioritize survival**: In an anarchic international system (no overarching authority), states act to maximize security and minimize threats. 2. **Great powers seek regional hegemony**: States aim to dominate their immediate regions to prevent rival powers from threatening them. 3. **Proximity amplifies threat perception**: The closer a rival power or alliance is to a state's borders, the greater the perceived threat. ### **Logical Reasoning** 1. NATO's eastward expansion brings a U.S.-led military alliance closer to Russia’s borders. - From the principle of proximity, this increases Russia’s perceived insecurity. 2. Ukraine’s potential NATO membership represents a direct challenge to Russia’s sphere of influence. - A great power like Russia would logically act to prevent this encroachment, as it undermines its regional dominance. 3. Russia’s actions (e.g., annexation of Crimea in 2014 and invasion in 2022) are defensive responses to NATO's perceived encroachment. - From the principle of survival, Russia seeks to neutralize threats by ensuring Ukraine does not join NATO. 4. The U.S. and NATO ignored Russia’s stated red lines (e.g., no NATO membership for Ukraine). - This provoked predictable countermeasures from Russia, consistent with great-power behavior. ### **Conclusion** From a realist perspective, NATO expansion is the root cause of the conflict. Russia’s actions are not imperialistic but defensive responses to protect its security and sphere of influence. ## **Jeffrey Sachs' Position: A Historical and Diplomatic Perspective** ### **First Principles** 1. **Agreements create expectations**: Commitments between states establish norms that guide future behavior. 2. **Security is interdependent**: One state’s pursuit of security can increase another state’s insecurity (the "security dilemma"). 3. **Conflicts are preventable through diplomacy**: Negotiations and compromises can avert wars by addressing mutual concerns. ### **Logical Reasoning** 1. In 1990, U.S. officials assured Soviet leaders that NATO would not expand eastward if Germany was reunified. - If such assurances were made (even informally), subsequent NATO expansion violated these expectations, fostering mistrust. 2. The U.S.'s unilateral withdrawal from treaties like the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (2002) and its push for NATO enlargement exacerbated Russia's insecurity. - By the principle of interdependent security, these actions predictably escalated tensions with Russia. 3. Putin proposed negotiations in 2021 to prevent NATO expansion into Ukraine, but these were rejected by the U.S. - Diplomacy could have addressed Russian concerns without war, but its rejection left military action as Russia’s only perceived option. 4. Ukraine’s neutrality could have prevented conflict by satisfying both Russian and Western security concerns. - Neutrality would reduce NATO's proximity to Russia while preserving Ukraine's sovereignty. ### **Conclusion** From Sachs’ perspective, the war is a consequence of U.S.-led NATO expansion and missed diplomatic opportunities. A negotiated settlement based on Ukrainian neutrality remains the logical path to peace. ## Deductive Insights 1. Both positions agree that NATO expansion is central to understanding the conflict but differ in emphasis: - Mearsheimer focuses on structural inevitabilities in great-power politics. - Sachs highlights historical commitments and missed opportunities for diplomacy. 2. Both rely on axioms about state behavior: - Mearsheimer emphasizes security maximization through power balancing. - Sachs underscores trust-building through adherence to agreements. In conclusion, reasoning from first principles supports both scholars’ views as internally consistent frameworks for explaining the Ukraine conflict, though they emphasize different aspects of state behavior and international relations logic. To construct counterarguments to the positions of John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs using axiomatic deductive reasoning, we will start with alternative first principles and challenge their logical conclusions. This approach ensures that the counterarguments are rooted in logic and facts, without relying on external opinions or assertions. ## **Counterarguments to John Mearsheimer's Position** ### **First Principles for the Counterargument** 1. **Sovereign states have the right to self-determination**: All states, regardless of size, have the right to choose their alliances and political alignments. 2. **Security is not zero-sum**: One state’s pursuit of security does not always come at the expense of another’s; collective security arrangements can enhance stability. 3. **Aggression undermines security**: A state that invades its neighbors creates insecurity for itself by provoking opposition and strengthening rival alliances. ### **Logical Reasoning** 1. NATO expansion was voluntary and driven by the sovereign decisions of Eastern European states seeking protection from historical Russian aggression. - From the principle of self-determination, NATO enlargement reflects the legitimate choices of countries like Poland, Estonia, and Ukraine to align with a defensive alliance, not an act of Western aggression against Russia. 2. Russia’s perception of NATO as a threat is not inherently justified. - NATO is a defensive alliance with no history of invading non-member states. From the principle that security is not zero-sum, NATO’s presence near Russia does not necessarily reduce Russian security unless Russia itself acts aggressively. 3. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine contradicts Mearsheimer’s claim that its actions are purely defensive. - By attacking Ukraine, Russia has provoked a stronger NATO presence in Eastern Europe (e.g., Finland and Sweden joining NATO) and increased its own insecurity. This undermines the principle that great powers act rationally to maximize their security. 4. The analogy to the Cuban Missile Crisis is flawed. - In 1962, the U.S. objected to Soviet missiles in Cuba because they posed an immediate offensive threat. NATO membership for Ukraine does not involve stationing offensive weapons aimed at Russia but rather a defensive commitment. ### **Conclusion** Mearsheimer’s argument fails to account for the agency of smaller states and overstates the inevitability of conflict due to NATO expansion. Russia’s actions are better explained as aggressive attempts to reassert imperial influence rather than rational defensive measures. # The Antithesis ## **Counterarguments to Jeffrey Sachs' Position** ### **First Principles for the Counterargument** 1. **Informal agreements lack binding force**: Verbal or informal assurances between states do not constitute enforceable commitments in international relations. 2. **Security dilemmas require mutual restraint**: Both sides in a conflict must take steps to reduce tensions; unilateral blame is insufficient. 3. **Sovereign equality underpins diplomacy**: No state has the right to dictate another state’s foreign policy or alliances. ### **Logical Reasoning** 1. The alleged 1990 U.S. assurance against NATO expansion was never formalized in any treaty or agreement. - From the principle that informal agreements lack binding force, subsequent NATO enlargement cannot be considered a violation of commitments since no legal obligation existed. 2. Russia’s actions have escalated tensions far more than NATO expansion ever did. - By annexing Crimea (2014) and invading Ukraine (2022), Russia has actively destabilized its neighbors and created insecurity across Europe. From the principle of mutual restraint, Russia bears responsibility for escalating the conflict rather than solely responding to U.S./NATO actions. 3. Diplomatic solutions require both parties to negotiate in good faith. - Putin’s 2021 proposals demanded guarantees that Ukraine would never join NATO—a condition that violates Ukraine’s sovereignty and right to self-determination. From the principle of sovereign equality, such demands are inherently illegitimate. 4. Neutrality is not always a viable solution. - Ukraine attempted neutrality after independence (e.g., refusing to join NATO for decades). However, this did not prevent Russian aggression in 2014 or 2022, undermining Sachs’ claim that neutrality would have ensured peace. ### **Conclusion** Sachs’ argument overemphasizes historical grievances and ignores Russia’s active role in escalating tensions through aggression and coercion. The failure of diplomacy lies as much with Russia’s demands as with Western policies. ## **Deductive Insights from Counterarguments** 1. Both Mearsheimer and Sachs underestimate the agency of smaller states like Ukraine, which made sovereign decisions based on their own security needs rather than being mere pawns in great-power politics. 2. Both positions assume that Russia’s actions are primarily reactive or defensive, but this ignores evidence that Russia has proactively pursued aggressive policies (e.g., Georgia 2008, Crimea 2014). 3. The principle of sovereignty challenges both scholars’ frameworks: - Mearsheimer overlooks Ukraine's right to align with NATO if it chooses. - Sachs dismisses Ukraine's agency by suggesting neutrality could have been imposed as a solution. In conclusion, while Mearsheimer and Sachs present internally consistent arguments, their frameworks can be challenged by emphasizing sovereignty, rejecting inevitability in great-power conflict, and highlighting Russia's active role in escalating tensions beyond what can be justified by security concerns alone. # The Synthesis: A Balanced Framework for Resolving the Russia-Ukraine Conflict ### **First Principles for Synthesis** 1. **Security is interdependent**: A state’s pursuit of security can create insecurity for others, necessitating mutual accommodation. 2. **Sovereignty is fundamental but constrained by geography**: States have a right to self-determination, but geography imposes practical limits on absolute sovereignty in a multipolar world. 3. **Great powers act to preserve their spheres of influence**: In an anarchic international system, great powers prioritize regional dominance to ensure their survival. 4. **Diplomacy is essential for de-escalation**: Durable peace requires negotiated compromises that address the core interests of all parties involved. ### **Reconciling the Thesis and Antithesis** #### **Thesis (Mearsheimer and Sachs' Positions)** - NATO expansion near Russia’s borders provoked a predictable response from Moscow, reflecting structural dynamics of great-power competition. - U.S. and NATO policies ignored Russian security concerns, contributing to the escalation of tensions. - Diplomacy and neutrality for Ukraine are necessary to resolve the conflict. #### **Antithesis (Counterarguments)** - NATO expansion was driven by voluntary decisions of Eastern European states seeking protection from historical Russian aggression, not Western provocation. - Russia’s actions are not purely defensive but reflect imperial ambitions that violate Ukraine’s sovereignty. - Neutrality alone would not guarantee peace, as Russia has acted aggressively even when Ukraine was neutral. #### **Synthesis** Both perspectives contain valid insights but fail to fully address the complexity of the conflict. The synthesis must: 1. Acknowledge Russia’s legitimate security concerns while rejecting its imperialistic actions. 2. Respect Ukraine’s sovereignty while recognizing that its geographic position necessitates pragmatic compromises. 3. Balance great-power dynamics with smaller states’ rights to self-determination. ## **Proposed Solution: A Comprehensive Peace Framework** To achieve an enduring peace in Ukraine and stabilize Eastern Europe, the following steps are proposed: ### 1. Immediate Ceasefire - Both sides agree to an immediate cessation of hostilities under international supervision (e.g., UN peacekeeping forces). - A demilitarized buffer zone is established along current frontlines to prevent further clashes. ### 2. Neutrality with Conditions - Ukraine adopts a status of permanent neutrality, enshrined in its constitution and guaranteed by international treaties. - Neutrality includes: - No NATO membership for Ukraine. - Freedom for Ukraine to pursue economic integration with both the EU and other global partners without military alignments. ### 3. Security Guarantees - Russia receives legally binding assurances that NATO will not expand further eastward or station offensive weapons near its borders. - Ukraine receives multilateral security guarantees from major powers (e.g., U.S., EU, China) to deter future aggression from any party. ### 4. Territorial Dispute Resolution - Crimea’s status is deferred to future negotiations under international mediation, with both sides agreeing to maintain the status quo in the interim. - Donetsk and Luhansk regions are granted autonomy within Ukraine under a decentralized federal structure, ensuring local governance while preserving Ukrainian sovereignty. ### 5. Economic Reconstruction - An international fund is established for rebuilding war-torn regions in Ukraine, with contributions from Russia, Western nations, and multilateral institutions. - Economic cooperation between Ukraine and Russia is encouraged through trade agreements designed to benefit both parties. ### 6. Phased Implementation - Peace agreements are implemented incrementally to build trust: - Initial steps include withdrawal of heavy weaponry, prisoner exchanges, and humanitarian aid delivery. - Subsequent phases involve constitutional reforms (e.g., neutrality), elections in disputed regions, and gradual reintegration of territories under international supervision. ### 7. Long-Term Regional Security Framework - A new regional security framework is established involving Russia, Ukraine, NATO members, and neutral states to manage disputes peacefully. - This framework institutionalizes dialogue channels for arms control, economic cooperation, and crisis management. ## **Rationale for the Solution** 1. **Balances Security Concerns**: - Neutrality addresses Russia’s fears of NATO encirclement while preserving Ukraine’s independence. - Security guarantees reduce mistrust between NATO and Russia while protecting Ukraine from future aggression. 2. **Respects Sovereignty**: - Ukraine retains its independence and territorial integrity (except for deferred issues like Crimea) while accommodating regional realities through federalism and neutrality. 3. **Acknowledges Great-Power Dynamics**: - The solution recognizes Russia’s need for a secure sphere of influence without legitimizing its imperial ambitions or violating international law. 4. **Builds Trust Through Gradualism**: - Incremental implementation allows both sides to verify commitments before proceeding further. - International monitoring ensures compliance with agreements. 5. **Incorporates Lessons from History**: - Neutrality models (e.g., Austria) demonstrate that such arrangements can work when backed by strong guarantees. - Phased implementation mirrors successful peace processes in other conflicts (e.g., Colombia). ## **Conclusion** The synthesis reconciles the structural realism of Mearsheimer with Sachs’ emphasis on diplomacy by proposing a balanced solution that addresses both security dilemmas and sovereignty concerns. Neutrality serves as the linchpin for de-escalation, while phased implementation builds trust over time. By integrating immediate conflict resolution measures with long-term regional frameworks, this approach offers a realistic path toward enduring peace in Eastern Europe. *Citations:* [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1drhxxh/john_mearsheimers_take_on_the_russoukrainian_war/ [2] https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/14ktcv2/the_darkness_ahead_where_the_ukraine_war_is/ [3] https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalScience/comments/1bp64ub/what_is_with_mearsheimer_and_russia/ [4] https://www.reddit.com/r/AskConservatives/comments/1gznjks/do_you_think_appeasing_putin_is_the_right_way_to/ [5] https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/comments/1hu8iop/cmv_the_united_states_should_continue_to_send_aid/ [6] https://internationalpolicy.org/publications/jeffrey-sachs-matt-duss-debate-u-s-russia-talks-to-end-ukraine-war/ [7] https://www.reddit.com/r/IRstudies/comments/17iwfpr/john_mearsheimer_is_wrong_about_ukraine/ [8] https://scheerpost.com/2024/11/23/jeffrey-sachs-explains-the-russia-ukraine-war/ [9] https://consortiumnews.com/2023/09/21/jeffrey-sachs-nato-expansion-ukraines-destruction/ [10] https://www.democracynow.org/2025/2/18/russia_ukraine [11] https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/15kwpx3/ukraine_war_and_the_paradox_of_mearsheimers/ [12] https://braveneweurope.com/jeffrey-d-sachs-the-real-history-of-the-war-in-ukraine-a-chronology-of-events-and-case-for-diplomacy [13] https://www.jeffsachs.org/newspaper-articles/nato-chief-admits-expansion-behind-russian-invasion [14] https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/2c06cbc711d95427489f8bc781c45daab461ccde [15] https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/46e28172de2a520e4f77e654a37687a7757d9d49 [16] https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/e8c17a15a554054c755a1b1d53d3e1099d159033 [17] https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/65cbcec6ac255413086db567774844f84c813600 [18] https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/d11db25ffa5b50ef38d18c2a1e2243e4c7c53b24 [19] https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/5b750f3d763d728ae2bcf2ce3e6cf67a8281bb2b [20] https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/34883bf28c7a988eb2c2fe458b7eab3180b36dcc [21] https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/b64319315d02b2cc1dff936d69be40d78d15f6b9 [22] https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/c4ca4d645825a5b8d7389c45bcfcad0eeebecd81 [23] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11734947/ [24] https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalScience/comments/17iwhqi/john_mearsheimer_is_wrong_about_ukraine/ [25] https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1ih646n/john_mearsheimer_is_offensive_realist_who_should/ [26] https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/tjhwi4/a_response_to_mearsheimers_views_on_nato_ukraine/ [27] https://www.reddit.com/r/IRstudies/comments/1b12pdh/genuine_structural_realist_cases_against_us/ [28] https://www.reddit.com/r/lexfridman/comments/17xl8jk/john_mearsheimer_israelpalestine_russiaukraine/ [29] https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/17xve8j/people_give_too_much_credit_to_the_realist/ [30] https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalDiscussion/comments/zvfquu/do_you_agree_with_john_mearsheimers_complex_view/ [31] https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1bghzbp/john_mearshimer_and_ukraine/ [32] https://www.reddit.com/r/LabourUK/comments/tbzs2d/john_mearsheimer_on_why_the_west_is_principally/ [33] https://www.reddit.com/r/IRstudies/comments/1gjus1i/playing_devils_advocate_to_john_mearsheimer/ [34] https://www.reddit.com/r/TheAllinPodcasts/comments/1fipvmu/john_mearsheimer_and_jeffrey_sachs_on_american/ [35] https://www.e-ir.info/2024/03/31/dissecting-the-realist-argument-for-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/ [36] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6YOVl5LKTs [37] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/362890238_Mearsheimer_Realism_and_the_Ukraine_War [38] https://www.ndsmcobserver.com/article/2024/01/john-mearsheimer-talks-war-and-international-politics [39] https://euideas.eui.eu/2022/07/11/john-mearsheimers-lecture-on-ukraine-why-he-is-wrong-and-what-are-the-consequences/ [40] https://academic.oup.com/ia/article-pdf/98/6/1873/47659084/iiac217.pdf [41] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qciVozNtCDM [42] https://metacpc.org/en/mearsheimer2022/ [43] https://www.fpri.org/article/2023/01/the-realist-case-for-ukraine/ [44] https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-the-Ukraine-Crisis-Is.pdf [45] https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-john-mearsheimer-blames-the-us-for-the-crisis-in-ukraine [46] https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/cd2fd9e8ea82fa4e7f2f66a2eb517f4ba34981a0 [47] https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/99942047e1e43e77ef76e147e51b725a63d86e22 [48] https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/a53f98c63c58e4268856bde3883abc72e43e03bf [49] https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/471f43cd36c53141ee24a431eef520bec311c15c [50] https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/d56b89349fade26cef69c1d0cffd6887adca102d [51] https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/50f504029753ffb7eec4d2660f29beb48b682803 [52] https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/e2f85f09340e854efcfc4df9d1aabd2e533e1051 [53] https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1ghs32m/ru_pov_jeffrey_sachss_view_on_the_lead_up_and/ [54] https://www.reddit.com/r/EndlessWar/comments/1iwpc2e/ukraine_war_is_over_jeffrey_sachs_explosive/ [55] https://www.reddit.com/r/UnitedNations/comments/1ivq4zg/there_will_be_no_war/ [56] https://www.reddit.com/r/chomsky/comments/1gx5c5k/jeffrey_sachs_explains_the_background_to_the/ [57] https://www.reddit.com/r/chomsky/comments/1ix8z9a/jeffery_sachs_providing_clarity/ [58] https://www.reddit.com/r/chomsky/comments/1ism3vj/jeffrey_sachs_on_us_russia_talks_to_end_ukraine/ [59] https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1e04cpd/i_do_not_understand_the_prorussia_stance_from/ [60] https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalVideo/comments/1izr6g9/economist_prof_jeffrey_sachs_addresses_eu/ [61] https://www.reddit.com/r/LabourUK/comments/1iw9u56/economist_prof_jeffrey_sachs_addresses_eu/ [62] https://www.reddit.com/r/TheAllinPodcasts/comments/1cjfkbx/fact_checking_david_sachs_data_sources_on_ukraine/ [63] https://www.reddit.com/r/chomsky/comments/1e4n8ea/why_wont_the_us_help_negotiate_a_peaceful_end_to/ [64] https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/13lrmgo/rebuttal_to_jeffrey_sachs_ad_in_the_new_york/ [65] https://www.reddit.com/r/chomsky/comments/1ipg351/you_can_immediately_tell_who_in_this_sub_doesnt/ [66] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RiK6DijNLGE [67] https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/why-nato-expansion-explains-russias-actions-in-ukraine/ [68] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7ThOU4xKaU [69] https://www.jeffsachs.org/newspaper-articles/s6ap8hxhp34hg252wtwwwtdw4afw7x [70] https://www.jeffsachs.org/newspaper-articles/wgtgma5kj69pbpndjr4wf6aayhrszm [71] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfRG1Cqda2M [72] https://voxukraine.org/en/open-letter-to-jeffrey-sachs [73] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmZoJ1vKEKk [74] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnBakiVQf-s [75] https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/russia-nato-security-through-ukrainian-neutrality-by-jeffrey-d-sachs-2022-02 [76] https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/nato-chief-admits-expansion-behind-russian-invasion [77] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-MmJfmTgvAk [78] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ava7rqirOYI [79] https://jordantimes.com/opinion/jeffrey-d-sachs/war-ukraine-was-not-%E2%80%98unprovoked%E2%80%99 [80] https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1d8ony5/john_mearsheimers_opinion_on_ukraines_own_ability/ [81] https://thegeopolitics.com/mearsheimer-revisited-how-offensive-realisms-founder-is-inconsistent-on-the-ukraine-russia-war/ [82] https://www.scielo.br/j/rbpi/a/MvWrWYGGtcLhgtsFRrmdmcx/ [83] https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/auk-2022-2023/html?lang=en [84] https://blog.prif.org/2023/07/26/russian-self-defense-fact-checking-arguments-on-the-russo-ukrainian-war-by-john-j-mearsheimer-and-others/ [85] https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/the-ukraine-crisis-according-to-john-j-mearsheimer-impeccable-logic-wrong-facts/ [86] https://pjia.com.pk/index.php/pjia/article/download/837/587 [87] https://www.reddit.com/r/TheAllinPodcasts/comments/1e4noiz/where_is_sacks_prorussia_motive_coming_from/ [88] https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1an20x2/why_did_boris_johnson_tell_ukraine_not_to_take/ [89] https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1gjfcwg/media_reveals_deal_russia_offered_to_ukraine_at/ [90] https://www.reddit.com/r/AskARussian/comments/1d3pv6y/do_you_feel_like_the_west_was_actively_sabotaging/

@ d360efec:14907b5f

**ภาพรวม (Integrated Overview)** ถ้าพิจารณาทั้ง TF Daily, 4H, และ 15m (พร้อมข้อมูล Money Flow ที่เป็นลบในทุก TF) ราคาปัจจุบันประมาณ 84,579 **การวิเคราะห์แบบรวม*** 1. **แนวโน้ม (Trend):** * **Daily:** *ขาลง* (Bearish) แม้ว่าราคาจะอยู่เหนือเส้นค่าเฉลี่ยเคลื่อนที่ (EMA) แต่ *Money Flow ที่เป็นลบอย่างรุนแรง* บ่งชี้ถึงแนวโน้มขาลง * **4H:** *ขาลง* (Bearish) Money Flow เป็นลบอย่างมาก และมี *รูปแบบ* Head and Shoulders ที่มีโอกาสเกิดขึ้น * **15m:** *ขาลง* (Bearish) Money Flow เป็นลบ 2. **SMC & ICT (Smart Money Concepts & Inner Circle Trader):** * **Buyside Liquidity:** อยู่เหนือราคาสูงสุดปัจจุบัน ระดับราคาที่ *อาจ* เป็นแนวต้าน (จากกราฟ Daily): 90456.8, 92755.8, 95054.9, 97354.0, 99653.1, 101952.1, 104251.3, 106550.3, 109998.9, และ 117000.0 ใน TF 15m, Buyside Liquidity คือจุดสูงสุดของแท่งเทียนก่อนหน้า * **Sellside Liquidity:** แนวรับสำคัญ: 80,000 (Neckline ของ Head and Shoulders ใน TF 4H, ตัวเลขกลม, แนวรับทางจิตวิทยา) แนวรับอื่นๆ: 83559.5, 81260.4, 78961.4, 76662.3, 74363.2, 72064.1, 69705.1, 67400.0, 66811.7, และ 65166.9 (จากกราฟ Daily) ใน TF 15m, Sellside Liquidity คือจุดต่ำสุดของแท่งเทียนก่อนหน้า 3. **Money Flow:** * **Daily:** *เป็นลบอย่างมาก* (Strongly Negative) * **4H:** *เป็นลบอย่างมาก* (Strongly Negative) * **15m:** *เป็นลบ* (Negative) * **นี่คือตัวบ่งชี้ที่สำคัญที่สุดในขณะนี้ และเป็นขาลงในทุก Timeframe** 4. **EMA (Exponential Moving Averages):** * **Daily:** ราคาอยู่เหนือ EMA 50 และ 200 *แต่ถูกหักล้างด้วย Money Flow ที่เป็นลบ* * **4H:** ราคาอยู่เหนือ EMA 50 และ 200 *แต่ถูกหักล้างด้วย Money Flow ที่เป็นลบ* * **15m:** ราคาแกว่งตัวรอบ EMA 50, อยู่เหนือ EMA 200 *แต่ถูกหักล้างด้วย Money Flow ที่เป็นลบ* 5. **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * **Daily:** เมฆ Ichimoku เป็นสีเทา (Neutral - เป็นกลาง) * **4H:** เมฆ Ichimoku เป็นสีเทา (Neutral - เป็นกลาง) * **15m:** เมฆ Ichimoku เป็นสีเทา (Neutral - เป็นกลาง) 6. **Chart Patterns (รูปแบบกราฟ):** * **Daily:** ไม่มีรูปแบบที่ชัดเจน แต่มีการอ่อนตัวของราคา * **4H:** *มีโอกาสเกิด* รูปแบบ Head and Shoulders (กลับหัว) (Bearish - ขาลง) * **15m:** ไม่มีรูปแบบที่ชัดเจน แต่อาจเป็นส่วนหนึ่งของ Right Shoulder ใน TF 4H **กลยุทธ์ Day Trade (SMC-Based)** เนื่องจาก Money Flow ที่เป็นลบอย่างท่วมท้นในทุก Timeframes และรูปแบบ Head and Shoulders ที่มีโอกาสเกิดขึ้นใน TF 4H กลยุทธ์การซื้อขายที่สมเหตุสมผล *เพียงอย่างเดียว* คือ **การป้องกันอย่างเข้มงวด** โดยเน้นที่ **การหลีกเลี่ยงสถานะ Long** และพิจารณาสถานะ Short *เฉพาะ* เมื่อมีเงื่อนไขที่เข้มงวดมากเท่านั้น 1. **Long (Buy):** *ไม่แนะนำโดยเด็ดขาด* (Absolutely, unequivocally not recommended) การทำเช่นนี้จะเป็นการซื้อขายสวนทางกับแนวโน้มหลักและสัญญาณ Money Flow ที่ชัดเจน 2. **Short (Sell):** * **Entry (จุดเข้า):** นี่คือการเทรด *เดียว* ที่ *อาจ* มีเหตุผลสนับสนุน, แต่ *เฉพาะ* เมื่อเงื่อนไข *ทั้งหมด* ต่อไปนี้เป็นจริง: * รูปแบบ Head and Shoulders ใน TF 4H *เสร็จสมบูรณ์* ด้วยการ Breakout ที่ชัดเจนใต้ Neckline (80,000-81,000) * การ Breakout ใต้ Neckline เกิดขึ้นพร้อมกับ *Volume ที่สูง* * Money Flow ใน *ทั้งสาม* Timeframes ยังคง *เป็นลบอย่างมาก* * คุณมีสัญญาณ Bearish อื่นๆ ยืนยัน (เช่น รูปแบบแท่งเทียน Bearish, Bearish Divergence) * **Target (เป้าหมาย):** ระดับ Sellside Liquidity (เช่น 78961.4, 76662.3) * **Stop Loss (จุดตัดขาดทุน):** *เหนือ* Neckline หรือ Right Shoulder ทันที *จำเป็นต้องมี Stop Loss ที่เข้มงวดอย่างยิ่ง* 3. **No Trade (ไม่เทรด):** เป็นตัวเลือกที่ *ดีที่สุด* สำหรับนักเทรด/นักลงทุนส่วนใหญ่ ความเสี่ยงที่จะเกิดการปรับฐานครั้งใหญ่มีสูงมาก **สรุป** สถานการณ์ของ BTC คือ **Bearish อย่างมาก** *Money Flow ที่เป็นลบอย่างมากในทุก Timeframes* เป็นปัจจัยสำคัญที่สุด ซึ่งมีน้ำหนักมากกว่าสัญญาณ Bullish ใดๆ ก่อนหน้านี้จาก EMA รูปแบบ Head and Shoulders ที่มีโอกาสเกิดขึ้นใน TF 4H ช่วยเพิ่มการยืนยันแนวโน้ม Bearish **สถานะ Long ไม่สมเหตุสมผลอย่างยิ่ง** สถานะ Short *อาจ* พิจารณาได้, แต่ *ต้อง* มีการยืนยันสัญญาณที่ชัดเจน *ทั้งหมด* และมีการบริหารความเสี่ยงที่เข้มงวดมาก **"Wait and See" (รอดู) และการรักษาเงินทุนเป็นสิ่งสำคัญที่สุด** **Disclaimer:** การวิเคราะห์นี้เป็นเพียงความคิดเห็นส่วนตัว ไม่ถือเป็นคำแนะนำในการลงทุน ผู้ลงทุนควรศึกษาข้อมูลเพิ่มเติมและตัดสินใจด้วยความรอบคอบ

@ d360efec:14907b5f

$OKX:BTCUSDT.P **Overview (Integrated Overview)** All three provided timeframes (Daily, 4H, and 15m, *all now confirmed to have negative Money Flow*), The current price is approximately 84,579. **Integrated Analysis** 1. **Trend:** * **Daily:** *Bearish*. While the price is above the EMAs, the *strongly negative Money Flow* on the Daily chart overrides the EMA signal, indicating a bearish trend. The Ichimoku Cloud is neutral, further supporting the idea that the previous bullish trend is weakening. * **4H:** *Bearish*. Strongly negative Money Flow and a *potential* (but not yet confirmed) inverted Head and Shoulders pattern. * **15m:** *Bearish*. Negative Money Flow. 2. **SMC & ICT (Smart Money Concepts & Inner Circle Trader):** * **Buyside Liquidity:** Above the current high. Potential resistance levels (derived from the Daily chart image, assuming it's from 2025): 90456.8, 92755.8, 95054.9, 97354.0, 99653.1, 101952.1, 104251.3, 106550.3, 109998.9, and 117000.0. On the 15m chart (though we are prioritizing the Daily and 4H now), Buyside Liquidity would be represented by recent swing highs. * **Sellside Liquidity:** Key support: 80,000 (this is the approximate neckline of the *potential* Head and Shoulders pattern on the 4H chart, a round number, and a psychological support level). Other support levels (derived from the Daily chart image): 83559.5, 81260.4, 78961.4, 76662.3, 74363.2, 72064.1, 69705.1, 67400.0, 66811.7, and 65166.9. On the 15m chart, Sellside Liquidity would be represented by recent swing lows. 3. **Money Flow:** * **Daily:** *Strongly Negative*. This is a major bearish signal. * **4H:** *Strongly Negative*. This reinforces the bearish signal and is consistent with the Daily chart. * **15m:** *Negative*. This confirms the short-term outflow of money. * **The consistently negative Money Flow across all timeframes is the most important and dominant indicator in this analysis.** 4. **EMA (Exponential Moving Averages):** * **Daily:** Price is above the EMA 50 (yellow) and EMA 200 (white). *However, the strongly negative Money Flow overrides the bullish signal typically provided by the price being above the EMAs.* * **4H:** Price is above the EMA 50 and EMA 200. *Again, the strongly negative Money Flow overrides this.* * **15m:** Price is oscillating around the EMA 50 and above the EMA 200. *The negative Money Flow overrides this.* 5. **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha Indicator):** * **Daily:** The Ichimoku Cloud is gray (Neutral). This is *not* a bullish signal and is consistent with the negative Money Flow. * **4H:** The Ichimoku Cloud is gray (Neutral). * **15m:** The Ichimoku Cloud is gray (Neutral). 6. **Chart Patterns:** * **Daily:** No *fully formed* classic chart pattern. However, the recent price action shows a loss of upward momentum and the beginning of a potential downward move. This *weakening* price action, combined with the strongly negative Money Flow, is bearish. * **4H:** *Potential* inverted Head and Shoulders pattern. This is a *bearish reversal pattern*. It's crucial to understand that this pattern is *not yet confirmed*. Confirmation requires a decisive break *below* the neckline (approximately 80,000-81,000), *with increased volume* and *continued negative Money Flow*. * **15m:** No clearly defined classic chart pattern. The 15m price action is best understood as potentially forming the right shoulder of the 4H Head and Shoulders. **SMC-Based Day Trading Strategies** Given the overwhelmingly bearish evidence – primarily the strongly negative Money Flow across all timeframes, combined with the potential Head and Shoulders pattern on the 4H chart – the *only* justifiable trading strategy is **extreme caution and a strong bias against long positions**. Short positions have a *slightly* higher probability of success, but only under *very specific* conditions and with *extremely* tight risk management. 1. **Long (Buy):** *Absolutely, unequivocally not recommended*. There is no technical justification for entering a long position at this time. This would be trading directly against the dominant bearish signals. 2. **Short (Sell):** * **Entry:** This is the *only* trade with *any* potential, and *only* if *all* of the following conditions are met: * The Head and Shoulders pattern on the 4H chart *fully completes* with a decisive break *below* the neckline (80,000-81,000). * The breakout below the neckline occurs on *significantly increased volume*. * The Money Flow on *all three* timeframes (Daily, 4H, and 15m) remains *strongly negative* at the time of the breakout. * Additional bearish confirmation is present (e.g., bearish candlestick patterns, bearish divergences on other oscillators like RSI or MACD – which we cannot see from the provided images). * **Target:** Sellside Liquidity levels, derived from the Daily chart. Potential targets include, but are not limited to: 78961.4, 76662.3, 74363.2, and potentially lower. * **Stop Loss:** *Immediately* above the neckline (after the breakout) or above the high of the right shoulder (if placing the trade *before* a confirmed neckline break – which is *extremely* risky). *An extremely tight stop-loss is absolutely mandatory* due to the inherent volatility of BTC and the potential for false breakouts. 3. **No Trade (Cash):** This is, by far, the *best* and most prudent option for the vast majority of traders and investors. The risk of a substantial price decline is extremely high, given the confluence of bearish signals. Preserving capital should be the primary objective. **Key Levels to Watch:** * **80,000 - 81,000 (4H Chart):** This is the neckline of the potential Head and Shoulders pattern. A sustained break below this level, with the confirming factors listed above, would be a strong bearish signal. * **Money Flow on all chart**: **Conclusion** The overall technical picture for BTC, **strongly bearish**. The *dominant factor* is the *consistently and strongly negative Money Flow across all three timeframes*. This overrides any seemingly bullish signals from the EMAs. The potential (but unconfirmed) Head and Shoulders pattern on the 4H chart adds further weight to the bearish case. **Long positions are completely unjustified and extremely risky.** Short positions *might* be considered, but *only* with the strictest possible entry criteria, complete confirmation from multiple indicators, and extremely tight risk management. **The "Wait and See" approach, prioritizing capital preservation, is the most prudent strategy for most market participants.** This situation calls for extreme caution and a defensive posture. **Disclaimer:** This analysis is a personal opinion. It is not financial advice. Trading and investing in cryptocurrencies involves significant risk. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

@ ed5774ac:45611c5c

**Trump and Vance Expose Zelensky: The West’s Narrative Machine Meets Reality** In the modern era, the West has perfected the art of ruling through narratives. Stories, carefully crafted and disseminated, have become the primary tool for shaping public perception, justifying actions, and maintaining control. This narrative-driven approach to governance has been the cornerstone of Western power since the 20th century, and nowhere is this more evident than in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Enter Volodymyr Zelensky, the comedian-turned-president, who has become a poster child for this narrative-driven world order. But in a recent confrontation with Donald Trump and J.D. Vance, Zelensky’s carefully constructed facade crumbled, exposing the fragility of the Western storytelling empire. **The West’s Narrative Machine** As Alastair Crooke astutely observes in his article **The Western Way of War: Owning the Narrative Trumps Reality** ( https://www.unz.com/article/the-western-way-of-war-owning-the-narrative-trumps-reality), the West’s power lies not in its military or economic might alone but in its ability to control the narrative. Crooke argues that the West has mastered the art of “owning the story,” creating a reality that serves its interests, regardless of facts on the ground. This narrative dominance ensures that the general public—often referred to as the masses—follows along without questioning, accepting the official line as gospel truth. To maintain this control, the West relies on carefully curated protagonists who can sell its stories to the world. Take, for example, the story of Volodymyr Zelensky, a former actor whose rise to power was itself a narrative triumph. Portrayed as a relatable outsider who defeated the corrupt establishment, Zelensky promised hope and reform. But behind this carefully crafted image lay darker forces. Oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky, one of Ukraine’s most powerful and controversial figures, played a pivotal role in Zelensky’s ascent. Kolomoisky, who owned the TV channel that aired Zelensky’s show Servant of the People, used his media empire to propel the political novice into the spotlight. This was not a grassroots movement but a calculated maneuver by Ukraine’s oligarchic elite to maintain control under a new, more palatable face. **Zelensky’s Rise and the West’s Geopolitical Strategy** Zelensky’s rise was not just a domestic political shift; it was a calculated move by the West to advance its long-standing goal of containing Russia and dominating Eurasia. The West, particularly the EU and NATO, saw Ukraine as a critical piece in its geopolitical chess game. By installing a pro-Western leader like Zelensky, the West aimed to pull Ukraine firmly into its orbit, knowing full well that such a move would antagonize Moscow. This was not an accidental escalation but a deliberate provocation, designed to create a pretext for further Western intervention. To polish Zelensky’s image and present him as a beacon of hope for peace and the Westernization of Ukraine, the West also needed to whitewash Ukraine’s darker realities. This meant turning a blind eye to the corruption and oligarchic influence that underpinned Zelensky’s presidency. Equally ignored were the neo-Nazi crimes and policies that had been well-documented before 2014, such as the rise of far-right groups like Svoboda and the Azov Battalion, their glorification of Nazi collaborator **Stepan Bandera**, and their violent attacks on ethnic minorities, political opponents, and LGBTQ+ communities. These atrocities, once reported in Western media, were suddenly erased from the narrative after 2014, as if they had never existed, to preserve the image of Ukraine as an innocent victim in the West’s geopolitical chess game. **The Grand Chessboard: Ukraine as a Proxy** The West’s use of Ukraine as a geopolitical pawn is not a recent development. Its roots can be traced back to Zbigniew Brzezinski’s 1997 book The Grand Chessboard, in which the former U.S. National Security Advisor laid out a blueprint for American dominance in Eurasia. He famously wrote, “The one who rules the heartland rules the world, the one who rules East Europe rules the heartland, the one who rules Ukraine rules East Europe.” This statement foreshadowed the West’s strategic interest in Ukraine as a tool to contain and destabilize Russia—a goal that has driven Western policy for decades. Even in 2008, Western leaders like Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy opposed Ukraine’s NATO membership, recognizing that such a move would provoke Russia. Classified cables from William Burns, the U.S. Ambassador to Russia at the time, echoed this sentiment. Burns warned that NATO expansion into Ukraine was a “red line” for Moscow, succinctly stating, “**Nyet means nyet**.” The West was fully aware that it was playing with fire, risking a direct confrontation with Russia that could escalate into a potential World War III. Yet, despite these warnings, the West pushed forward with its agenda, pulling Ukraine into its orbit. The stakes were simply too high to abandon the plan. At the heart of this strategy lies the West’s desperate need to sustain its faltering economic system. Since the 2008 financial crisis, the Western debt-driven financial model has teetered on the brink of collapse. Sovereign debt crises loom large, and the banking industry, reliant on endless money printing, urgently needs new collateral to back its ever-expanding debt. Russia’s vast resource-rich territories—filled with oil, gas, minerals, and rare earth metals—offer a tempting solution. By dominating Russia and seizing control of its natural wealth, the West could issue **resource-backed bonds,** financial instruments tied directly to Russia’s oil and gas reserves. These bonds would allow the West to leverage Russia’s resources as collateral, providing a stable foundation for its debt-ridden financial system. Controlling access to these resources would ensure currency stability and keep Western economies functioning, even as debt levels soar. But the West’s ambitions extend beyond economic survival. Controlling Russia’s resources would also allow it to sever China’s access to critical raw materials, undermining Beijing’s economic and military development. By dominating Russia’s energy exports, the West could manipulate global energy prices, stabilizing its own economies while weakening rivals like China, which relies heavily on Russian energy. The U.S. and EU view China as the greatest geopolitical challenge of the 21st century, and by encircling and weakening Russia, they aim to isolate and contain Beijing. In this grand strategy, Ukraine is not merely a pawn but a critical linchpin in the West’s efforts to reshape the global order—even at the risk of catastrophic conflict. **Zelensky’s Role in the West’s Strategy** To execute this high-stakes strategy, the West needed a compelling narrative—one that could justify its actions, rally public support, and obscure its true motives. Therefore, they created the narrative around Volodymyr Zelensky, casting him as a global symbol of resistance, a hero fighting against the “evil” of Putin’s Russia. The West, particularly the EU and NATO, embraced this narrative, using it to justify billions in aid—much of which served as a cover for money laundering—sanctions on Russia, and the broader geopolitical agenda outlined above. Zelensky became the face of this narrative, a willing participant in the West’s grand strategy, even as his own country was turned into a battlefield. Zelensky’s narrative, however, is built on shaky ground. Take, for example, the claim that Putin is “non-agreement capable”—a talking point frequently parroted by Western media and politicians. This assertion is not only baseless but laughably ironic. Unlike the West, which has a long history of signing agreements only to disregard them (e.g., the Minsk agreements, the Istanbul peace deal in March 2022, or NATO’s broken promise not to expand eastward), Putin has consistently honored the contracts and treaties he has signed. The West, not Russia, is the true exemplar of “non-agreement capable” behavior. Yet, Zelensky and his Western backers continue to peddle these lies, confident that the general public will follow. The narrative is simple: Ukraine is the victim, Russia is the aggressor, and any suggestion to the contrary is dismissed as propaganda. This black-and-white storytelling leaves no room for nuance, truth, or accountability. **Trump and Vance: Slapping Down the Narrative** Enter Donald Trump and J.D. Vance. In a recent meeting with Zelensky, the duo did what few in the West have dared to do: they called out the narrative for what it is—a fabrication. Trump, known for his blunt rhetoric, and Vance, a rising voice of realism in foreign policy, confronted Zelensky with the uncomfortable truth. They exposed the contradictions in his claims, highlighting the West’s role in prolonging the conflict and the absurdity of expecting the world to believe in a one-sided story. Zelensky, accustomed to the adulation of Western elites and the uncritical support of the media, was unprepared for this reality check. His carefully rehearsed lines fell flat, his confidence wavered, and the mask slipped. The confrontation was a rare moment of clarity in a sea of narrative-driven fog, a reminder that truth, when spoken boldly, can still shatter even the most entrenched lies. **The Meltdown of a Narrative Puppet** Zelensky’s meltdown in the face of Trump and Vance’s truth-telling is emblematic of a larger crisis in the West’s narrative-driven order. For decades, the West has relied on storytelling to maintain its dominance, but this approach is increasingly unsustainable. The rise of alternative media, the growing skepticism of the public, and the emergence of leaders like Trump and Vance who refuse to play along are exposing the cracks in the narrative machine. Zelensky, the figurehead who believed he could sell his lies to 8 billion people, is a cautionary tale. He is not the master of his narrative but a puppet, manipulated by his masters in the EU and NATO. His failure to withstand scrutiny is a testament to the hollowness of the stories he tells and the fragility of the system that props him up. **Conclusion: The End of Narrative Dominance?** The confrontation between Trump/Vance and Zelensky is more than just a political spat; it is a microcosm of the broader struggle between narrative and reality. The West’s reliance on storytelling as a tool of governance is reaching its limits. As Crooke warns, when the narrative diverges too far from reality, it risks collapsing under its own weight. The general public, once content to follow blindly, is beginning to question. Leaders like Trump and Vance are challenging the status quo, forcing the world to confront uncomfortable truths. Zelensky’s meltdown is a sign of things to come—a harbinger of the end of narrative dominance and the return of reality-based governance. The question is, will the West adapt, or will it cling to its stories until the very end?

@ 6a6be47b:3e74e3e1

Hi frens, 🎨 While painting today, my mind wandered from [my latest blog entry](https://samhainsam.art/2025/02/28/exploring-beelzebub-the-mystery-and-the-beauty-of-insects/)to future artistic endeavors.[I've been open about my feelings as an artist](https://yakihonne.com/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzq6ntu3amztepmkq0rmelmu5y6y4zjv2vagxxnk67e5z2k5l8fclpqqgrzeryvd3nwctrvcer2dmpvserxs5na9p), but that's just the tip of the iceberg. I realized I haven't properly introduced myself here, so let me remedy that. 🖼️Art has been my lifelong passion. Nostr and its wonderful community have reignited my belief in my work, showing me that art can be both enlightening and potentially profitable. I'm truly grateful for the warm welcome and positive vibes I've encountered here. 🦋Nostr made me feel confident enough to speak my mind on a social platform (or should I say protocol? 😉). Some fun facts about me: 🐹 I'm a "golly jolly" kind of gal who's always curious about the world and seeking answers. 🐹I'm a sunscreen enthusiast in summer (but in winter, I'm buried under so many layers, I practically double in size!) 🐹Birdwatching is a hobby of mine. I've researched and painted some cool birds like [shoebills](https://samhainsam.art/2024/06/25/shoebill-%f0%9f%90%a6/) and [bearded vultures](https://samhainsam.art/2024/07/04/bearded-vulture-%f0%9f%90%a6/). (Any suggestions for my next avian subject?) 🩷I'm truly happy to be here and grateful for each day. My goal is to spread joy through my art and interactions. Thanks for being part of this journey with me! In your personal experience, how has it been discovering Nostr wether you're an artist or not? What's you favorite part of your journey so far? Godspeed 🚀 

@ 4fe4a528:3ff6bf06

Technology adoption has been hard for a lot of people to understand. Tucker this week finally understood why gold became money. He finally understood that hard money drives out money that isn’t scarce. Still, most people don’t store their wealth in the hardest money ever made—Bitcoin. Yes, Bitcoin went down 20-25% this week. How can the scarcest asset vary that much? Humans tend toward emotion—fear or greed. I am no exception, but if you have a plan or have been here before, you can control your emotion. Let me illustrate. I installed a camera on the barn this week so I could save time checking on the cows. Lo and behold, the WiFi wasn’t strong enough, so I bought two outdoor access points. Whenever I would add them to the house, the WiFi mesh system would cause my internet to go down on the main computer. Fear of losing internet was causing me to consider taking a $100 write-off on my idea of saving time. Because I have solved networking issues before, I had the courage to be greedy and keep working at it. I know a lot of people would give up on technology and throw their cell phone in the snowbank - my neighbor does that. He usually comes back for it because he likes communication. Is a cell phone a feature or a bug? Answer… both. What Satoshi solved 16 years ago was how to move 1s and 0s to different devices and keep them secure. What Vint Cerf solved 35 years ago was how to route 1s and 0s and have the packets arrive at the intended destination. Both Bitcoin and the Internet rely on people not throwing their cell phone in the snowbank. This last drawdown in Bitcoin has given me hope that people will start to understand technology better and give up on Sol and Eth. Finally, people are realizing that printing digital coins doesn’t help people, just like printing Canadian dollars doesn’t help the average Canadian get ahead. It could be that Sam Bankman-Fried is in jail, but I think it has more to do with people starting to get comfortable with technology. https://youtu.be/fxWZO0FEQ1g

@ a95c6243:d345522c

*Ständige Lügen und Unterstellungen, permanent falsche Fürsorge* *\ können Bausteine von emotionaler Manipulation sein. Mit dem Zweck,* *\ Macht und Kontrolle über eine andere Person auszuüben.* *\ Apotheken Umschau*   **Irgendetwas muss passiert sein: «Gaslighting» ist gerade Thema** in vielen Medien. Heute bin ich nach längerer Zeit mal wieder über dieses Stichwort gestolpert. Das war in einem [Artikel](https://norberthaering.de/propaganda-zensur/dwd-referenzperiode/) von Norbert Häring über Manipulationen des Deutschen Wetterdienstes (DWD). In diesem Fall ging es um eine Pressemitteilung vom Donnerstag zum «viel zu warmen» Winter 2024/25. **Häring wirft der Behörde vor, dreist zu lügen und Dinge auszulassen,** um die Klimaangst wach zu halten. Was der Leser beim DWD nicht erfahre, sei, dass dieser Winter kälter als die drei vorangegangenen und kälter als der Durchschnitt der letzten zehn Jahre gewesen sei. Stattdessen werde der falsche Eindruck vermittelt, es würde ungebremst immer wärmer. **Wem also der zu Ende gehende Winter eher kalt vorgekommen sein sollte,** mit dessen Empfinden stimme wohl etwas nicht. Das jedenfalls wolle der DWD uns einreden, so der Wirtschaftsjournalist. Und damit sind wir beim Thema Gaslighting. **Als** **[Gaslighting](https://bayern-gegen-gewalt.de/gewalt-infos-und-einblicke/formen-von-gewalt/psychische-gewalt/gaslighting/)** **wird eine Form psychischer Manipulation bezeichnet,** mit der die Opfer desorientiert und zutiefst verunsichert werden, indem ihre eigene Wahrnehmung als falsch bezeichnet wird. Der Prozess führt zu Angst und Realitätsverzerrung sowie zur Zerstörung des Selbstbewusstseins. Die Bezeichnung kommt von dem britischen Theaterstück «Gas Light» aus dem Jahr 1938, in dem ein Mann mit grausamen Psychotricks seine Frau in den Wahnsinn treibt. **Damit Gaslighting funktioniert, muss das Opfer dem Täter vertrauen.** Oft wird solcher Psychoterror daher im privaten oder familiären Umfeld beschrieben, ebenso wie am Arbeitsplatz. Jedoch eignen sich die Prinzipien auch perfekt zur Manipulation der Massen. Vermeintliche Autoritäten wie Ärzte und Wissenschaftler, oder «der fürsorgliche Staat» und Institutionen wie die UNO oder die WHO wollen uns doch nichts Böses. Auch Staatsmedien, Faktenchecker und diverse NGOs wurden zu «vertrauenswürdigen Quellen» erklärt. Das hat seine Wirkung. **Warum das Thema Gaslighting derzeit scheinbar so populär ist,** vermag ich nicht zu sagen. Es sind aber gerade in den letzten Tagen und Wochen auffällig viele Artikel dazu erschienen, und zwar nicht nur von Psychologen. Die *Frankfurter Rundschau* hat gleich mehrere publiziert, und [Anwälte](https://www.anwalt.de/rechtstipps/gaslighting-beispiele-anzeichen-strafbarkeit-212449.html) interessieren sich dafür offenbar genauso wie Apotheker. **Die** ***Apotheken Umschau*** **machte sogar auf** **[«Medical Gaslighting»](https://archive.is/Wx5YM)** **aufmerksam.** Davon spreche man, wenn Mediziner Symptome nicht ernst nähmen oder wenn ein gesundheitliches Problem vom behandelnden Arzt «schnöde heruntergespielt» oder abgetan würde. Kommt Ihnen das auch irgendwie bekannt vor? Der Begriff sei allerdings irreführend, da er eine manipulierende Absicht unterstellt, die «nicht gewährleistet» sei. **Apropos Gaslighting: Die noch amtierende deutsche Bundesregierung** [meldete](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/service/newsletter-und-abos/bundesregierung-aktuell/ausgabe-08-2025-februar-28-2336254?view=renderNewsletterHtml) heute, es gelte, «weiter \[sic!] gemeinsam daran zu arbeiten, einen gerechten und dauerhaften Frieden für die Ukraine zu erreichen». Die Ukraine, wo sich am Montag «der völkerrechtswidrige Angriffskrieg zum dritten Mal jährte», [verteidige](https://transition-news.org/wikileaks-der-westen-wusste-dass-ein-nato-beitritt-der-ukraine-riskant-war) ihr Land und «unsere gemeinsamen Werte». **Merken Sie etwas? Das Demokratieverständnis mag ja tatsächlich** inzwischen in beiden Ländern ähnlich traurig sein. Bezüglich Friedensbemühungen ist meine Wahrnehmung jedoch eine andere. Das muss an meinem Gedächtnis liegen. *** Dieser Beitrag ist zuerst auf ***[Transition News](https://transition-news.org/bitte-nicht-von-gaslichtern-irritieren-lassen)*** erschienen.

@ 04c195f1:3329a1da

***Yesterday's chaotic Oval Office meeting between Trump, Vance, and Zelensky exposes a harsh truth: Europe can no longer depend on American protection. The time has come for Europe to reclaim its sovereignty and rebuild as an independent power.*** ## A Diplomatic Theater With No Happy Ending Yesterday's chaotic scenes in the Oval Office revealed more than just diplomatic tension—they exposed the fundamental weakness of Europe's strategic position. As President Trump, Vice President Vance, and President Zelensky engaged in their uncomfortable public spectacle, one truth became painfully clear: Europe can no longer rely on American protection. The awkward press conference featured about 40 minutes of relative calm before descending into 10 minutes of complete chaos. This final meltdown was likely never intended to produce meaningful results. Each participant appeared to be performing for different audiences—Trump and Vance signaling to their base, Zelensky demonstrating resolve to European allies. Without concrete security guarantees, any agreement would be meaningless for Ukraine, a reality all parties surely understood beforehand. When Vance spoke of diplomacy as a "new strategy"—ignoring numerous failed diplomatic initiatives—he crossed a line that provoked Zelensky's visible frustration. The subsequent breakdown wasn't merely a failure of diplomatic protocol but the public collapse of a relationship Europe has staked its security upon. ## The Price of Misguided Priorities This moment of crisis presents an opportunity if European nations are willing to confront uncomfortable realities. The time has come for Europe to emerge as a third global power, independent from both Eastern and Western influence. However, the path forward requires acknowledging our current weaknesses. European leadership has squandered decades pursuing ideological luxuries while our industrial and military capabilities have atrophied. While obsessing over multicultural social engineering, progressive identity politics, and globalist agendas, we've neglected the fundamental responsibilities of sovereign nations: securing borders, building defensive capabilities, and fostering national cohesion. The defense of European nations begins with domestic policy. A society divided against itself cannot stand firm in the face of external threats. This principle applies whether discussing Sweden's defense posture or the broader European security architecture. Photo by [Christian Lue](https://english.daneriksson.com/p/true) on [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/) ## Reclaiming National Identity and Purpose To rebuild our defensive capabilities, we must first address the internal fragmentation deliberately cultivated across the political spectrum. The active policies of societal division pursued with increasing fervor since the latter half of the 20th century have undermined the very foundations of national identity and common purpose. Strengthening national defense requires citizens who understand their shared heritage and believe their nation is worth defending. In practical terms, this means confronting difficult questions about immigration, assimilation, and the presence of potential fifth-column elements within our societies. Nations with higher social cohesion demonstrate greater willingness to defend their collective interests. The current crisis in Ukraine and the uncertain American commitment should serve as a wake-up call. European nations must rapidly rebuild industrial capacity, military strength, and most importantly, a sense of shared purpose. This demands breaking free from the ideological constraints that have guided European politics for generations. Although European establishment politicians show little appetite for such fundamental reassessment, events are accelerating rapidly. The dramatic scenes in Washington should catalyze serious reflection across European capitals. We cannot hold our breath waiting for political leadership to regain sense—we must push the conversation forward ourselves. Europe stands at a crossroads. We can continue our dangerous dependence on unreliable partners, or we can reclaim our sovereignty and rebuild our strength. The choice should be obvious, but making it requires courage our leaders have thus far failed to demonstrate. ■

@ fd78c37f:a0ec0833

**Author**: Zhengyu Qian, Eric Zhang **Original Link**: https://research.dorahacks.io/2025/02/22/maci-mailbox/ We are not reinventing email. Even a glance at the TOC of [IETF RFC 5322](https://datatracker.ietf.org/doc/html/rfc5322) reveals: email is long-standing and well-established, but far from simple. This is just one piece of the puzzle in today’s email system. What we would like to do first is to review the essence of message delivery. ## Proto-mail A typical process of message delivery can be broken down into three critical components: 1. Individuals intending to exchange messages—referred to as the **users**. 2. An intermediary, or **agent**, that facilitates the delivery. 3. The **message** itself.  Message delivery takes place when the sender hands over the message (e.g., a written note) to an agent—a person (a messenger), a device (a beacon), or an institution (a post office). The agent then dispatches the message to the recipient. Though direct communication, such as face-to-face conversation, falls outside the scope of this context. ## The Protocol of MACI Mailbox The MACI Mailbox is an encryption-based mailing protocol that builds directly on the three components above, with modifications and extensions.  1. The **user** consists of two parts: - An **account**, typically with a publicly visible **mailing address**. - A **keypair**(a private key and its corresponding public key), which works its magic in encrypted communication. 2. The **agent** has a similar structure: - An **account**. - A **keypair**. 3. The message is simple, consisting of two fields: - **Subject**. - **Body**. The following outlines the flow of message delivery in the MACI Mailbox protocol. The process of sending a message is addressed first.  1. The sender writes a **message**. 2. The **agent** encrypts the message **using its public key**, posts and stores it in a shared public database (e.g. a blockchain, Nostr), and assigns it a queryable **ID**. 3. The sender wraps the **ID** of encrypted message together with the **agent’s private key**, encrypts them using the **recipient’s public key**, and broadcasts the resulting encrypted data to a public space. Yes, **broadcasts it publicly**—feeling like encrypted radio communication yet? In this process, asymmetric encryption is introduced twice, achieving something valuable: the decoupling of message storage from broadcast. This has at least two key implications: 1. It’s highly flexible to choose the infrastructures for encrypted message **posting and storage** as well as **broadcasting** facilities—both of which are **modular, replaceable, and trustless**. 2. Storage and broadcast infrastructures can be separately tailored to meet specific requirements. Typically: - Message storage is expected to be inexpensive, reliable, and scalable. - Broadcast infrastructure can be customized to fit the varying user ecosystems or needs.  Receiving a message is basically the reverse process: 1. The recipient indexes their mail in the broadcast space, decrypts it with **their own private key** (guaranteed by the principles of asymmetric encryption), and retrieves both the **ID of encrypted message** (storage address) and **the agent’s private key** (which, as you may recall, was bundled with the message ID before broadcast). 2. With the message ID, the recipient fetches the encrypted message from storage and decrypts it using the agent’s private key to obtain the plaintext message. 3. Tada. It can be observed that the agent’s role described above is highly procedural, lending itself to a modular and replaceable design. This enables significant flexibility in the implementation of MACI Mailbox services and applications. ## Vota-Nostr Mailbox: basic architecture The Vota-Nostr Mailbox is the first implementation of the Protocol by Dora Factory, consisting of several core modules: - **A smart contract** deployed on [Dora Vota](https://research.dorahacks.io/2023/07/31/vota/) appchain to handle the broadcasting of messages. - [Nostr relays](https://nostr.com/relays), used for publishing and storing encrypted messages. - **An indexer service** to assist users in locating relevant messages, such as those sent to or from themselves. - **A web app** as the interface for interacting with the Vota-Nostr Mailbox.   First, user accounts are implemented as on-chain accounts of Dora Vota (represented as a wallet address) paired with a public/private [ECC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliptic-curve_cryptography) keypair. Message content is kept simple as plain-text strings, with the flexibility to upgrade it later (Everybody Loves Rich Text). Next, let’s push the boundaries for the agent. Ideally, users shouldn’t have to learn how to interact with it actively—think about fully automated agents. Or picture a stylish scene from *[The Day of the Jackal](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt24053860/)*: [Eddie Redmayne](https://www.imdb.com/name/nm1519666/) casually discarding a phone after each call. Thus, a disposable, one-time auto agent is designed for each mail flow. This agent consists of a randomly generated ECC keypair and a temporarily created Nostr account (essentially another keypair: [npub/nsec](https://nostr.com/get-started#understanding-keys)). ## Vota-Nostr Mailbox: communication workflow In [Vota-Nostr implementation](https://vota.dorafactory.org/mailbox) of MACI Mailbox Protocol, the communication flow is as follows. Both the encryption/decryption of message content and the broadcast rely on elliptic-curve cryptography.   To enhance user experience, a “Sent Messages” feature has been implemented, allowing senders to index, decrypt, and review their sent messages. In general, with asymmetric encryption, only the recipient’s private key can decrypt the encrypted content. Technically, there are cryptographic methods to enable mutual decryption by both sender and recipient. For simplicity at this stage, this issue is addressed by creating **a duplicate of each broadcast data** (on Dora Vota appchain). This duplicate is encrypted using the sender’s own public key, allowing the sender to decrypt it with their private key. Since the Protocol decouples the storage of encrypted message from the broadcast data, this duplication doesn’t significantly increase the payload on the broadcast infrastructure. Only the **message ID** and the **agent’s private key** need to be processed as duplicates, both of which are compact and independent of the actual message size (the length of your address line and the size of your front door key don’t depend on the dimensions of your house). Below outlines the entire communication process: 1. The sender encrypts their message using the **agent’s one-time public key** and publishes it to Nostr relay(s) via the **agent’s one-time Nostr account**, obtaining the encrypted message’s ID (i.e., **Nostr event ID**). 2. The sender wraps the encrypted message ID along with the **agent’s one-time private key**, encrypts them using the **recipient’s public key**, and broadcasts the resulting encrypted data to the appchain via **their own Dora Vota account**. This process leverages wallet apps/extensions for transaction submission and the smart contract for processing, closely resembling how users typically interact with blockchains and dapps. 3. Once the on-chain transaction is processed, the encrypted data is broadcast on Dora Vota. Both the sender and the recipient can retrieve the data at any time via the **Mailbox Indexer**. 4. The recipient decrypts the broadcast encrypted data using **their own private key**, finding the **Nostr event ID** and the corresponding decryption key (**one-time agent private key**). They then fetch the encrypted message from Nostr relay(s) by the ID and decrypt it with the one-time private key. 5. The sender can follow a nearly identical process to fetch and decrypt their own duplicate, enabling them to review sent messages. ## **Acknowledgements** The MACI Mailbox protocol was conceived during a Dora Factory developer meeting in Kyoto, March 2024. Eric Zhang supported its implementation in October as a tool to facilitate communications and campaigns in MACI decentralized governance. Shrey Khater and Divyansh Joshi contributed to an MVP of the Vota-Nostr implementation. The protocol was officially integrated with Dora Vota appchain as well as its frontend with efforts from Zhengyu Qian, Dennis Tang, and Vegebun.

@ da0b9bc3:4e30a4a9

Hello Stackers! Welcome on into the ~Music Corner of the Saloon! A place where we Talk Music. Share Tracks. Zap Sats. So stay a while and listen. 🚨Don't forget to check out the pinned items in the territory homepage! You can always find the latest weeklies there!🚨 🚨Subscribe to the territory to ensure you never miss a post! 🚨 originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/900550

@ 95cb4330:96db706c

Embracing The Principle of Asymmetric Bets Embracing the principle of asymmetric bets, as practiced by visionaries like Jeff Bezos and Peter Thiel, involves seeking opportunities where the potential gains far outweigh the possible losses. This strategy enables bold decision-making while minimizing exposure to significant failures. --- ## Understanding Asymmetric Bets - **Definition:** An asymmetric bet is a strategic decision where the potential upside is substantially greater than the downside risk. This approach allows individuals and organizations to pursue high-reward opportunities without jeopardizing overall stability. --- ## Examples in Practice - **Jeff Bezos and Amazon Web Services (AWS):** Bezos invested in AWS when cloud computing was still emerging. The potential upside—a trillion-dollar business—vastly outweighed the moderate research and development costs, exemplifying an asymmetric bet. - **Peter Thiel's Investment in Facebook:** Thiel's early $500,000 investment in Facebook transformed into a multi-billion-dollar return, showcasing the immense potential of asymmetric bets in venture capital. --- ## Implementing Asymmetric Bets 1. **Identify Opportunities with High Upside and Low Downside:** Seek situations where the potential benefits are disproportionately higher than the risks involved. 2. **Evaluate the Risk-to-Reward Ratio:** Assess scenarios where even a small probability of success can lead to substantial rewards, justifying the risk taken. 3. **Diversify Bets:** Spread resources across multiple asymmetric opportunities to increase the likelihood of significant returns while mitigating individual risks. --- ## Action Step Identify a decision or project where the potential upside is considerable and the downside is limited. Take action on this opportunity today, leveraging the principle of asymmetric bets to maximize success while minimizing risk. --- By adopting this mindset, you position yourself to capitalize on transformative opportunities that can lead to substantial growth and innovation. ---

@ b4403b24:83542d4e

https://x.com/JacquiHeinrich/status/1895547519117246611 originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/900278

@ 88cc134b:5ae99079

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Morbi eget mi euismod, porta enim at, congue erat. **Vivamus in ante leo. Vestibulum feugiat**, mauris a faucibus ultrices, enim massa bibendum magna, eu consequat leo mi eu velit. Mauris et magna rhoncus, ornare justo a, dictum sapien. Maecenas mattis rhoncus lacus ac lacinia*. Donec pulvinar finibus rutrum. Cras quis sapien lectus.* Ut odio est, condimentum vel consectetur at, elementum et neque. Donec dignissim metus eu nisi vestibulum vehicula. Maecenas vel dictum leo. Ut nisi lorem, tempor nec enim a, porta elementum augue. Vestibulum dictum ex at magna viverra, a tincidunt sem tempor. Fusce sit amet bibendum dui. Pellentesque congue tempus purus eu faucibus. Suspendisse non ex nunc. Quisque posuere euismod dui eget euismod. Praesent convallis turpis ac tellus gravida suscipit. Sed nulla lorem, auctor at ornare vel, tristique sit amet metus. Nullam id tristique arcu. Morbi sit amet velit nisi. Quisque quis est ut ex tempus lobortis in ut turpis. Sed eu diam ut leo suscipit dapibus nec at nisi. Etiam vel vulputate turpis. Suspendisse non ligula finibus, vestibulum magna ac, semper sapien. Integer dignissim dolor eros. Morbi nisl arcu, tincidunt non libero luctus, sagittis tempor urna. Duis sagittis nisi sed sagittis iaculis. Donec neque mi, fermentum nec suscipit ac, scelerisque vitae augue. Pellentesque id felis pharetra urna ornare congue ac quis augue. In posuere vulputate libero at pulvinar. Integer tincidunt justo nec cursus varius. Pellentesque habitant morbi tristique senectus et netus et malesuada fames ac turpis egestas. Donec fringilla tellus nibh, at feugiat risus vulputate in. Nulla commodo sem porttitor erat sodales, eu tincidunt nibh vulputate. Sed non massa volutpat nibh venenatis laoreet. Etiam arcu lectus, placerat sed porta et, aliquet sagittis elit. Integer pharetra nunc eget lacus vehicula bibendum. Fusce non libero interdum, vulputate mi a, ornare justo. Sed fermentum sapien lacus, et iaculis est pharetra a. Cras elementum magna velit, et tempor nibh egestas sed. Cras sollicitudin maximus ligula sit amet interdum. Aenean ullamcorper congue tincidunt. Aliquam condimentum, nisl quis ullamcorper facilisis, urna est ultricies lorem, quis dapibus velit quam eu ante. Integer vulputate feugiat molestie. Donec vestibulum eros eu velit gravida accumsan. Phasellus elementum arcu non ultricies rutrum. Morbi ac rhoncus ante. Maecenas scelerisque scelerisque nibh, ac lobortis tellus aliquam quis. Proin mi tellus, fringilla et hendrerit id, tincidunt nec turpis. Aenean ultrices magna iaculis felis tincidunt, eu molestie lorem cursus. Sed est eros, ultricies ut ornare non, suscipit vitae dui. Nunc nec rhoncus est. Aliquam at laoreet sapien, in ornare turpis. Morbi in quam at mi elementum vulputate. Donec sed sagittis purus. Morbi rutrum non mi vitae hendrerit. Nulla auctor ante lorem, eget scelerisque nunc hendrerit ornare.

@ 88cc134b:5ae99079

@ b581c912:7df8270f

Fui abordado por um colega e ele me falou de forma bastante enérgica sobre o projeto Pi Network, após uma breve conversa resolvi dar crédito e estudar sobre a solução proposta. Tentei ser imparcial e fui direto no site “oficial” (🤔) onde encontrei dois Whitepapers (referência 1), um de 2019 e outro de 2021. Decidi então fazer a leitura pela documentação oficial, tentar não me influenciar mais do que já sou influenciado (como um Bitcoiner Maximlista que acho que sou). Infelizmente não tive condições de terminar os dois documentos, no capítulo “Pi – Token Supply” de 2019 já deixa claro de forma matemática que Pi Network é uma pirâmide, e como até aquele momento não consegui resposta se o processo de recompensa da rede tinha sido atualizada, eu decidi não gastar mais meu tempo de vida estudando sobre o protocolo.\ \ Deixo aqui as anotações que fiz até onde tive condições de ler. Por favor, sinta-se à vontade para contra-argumentar caso você tenha entendido o protocolo de forma diferente, ou assim como Satoshi “If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry.”. De forma bastante resumida, esta é minha conclusão: Pi Network é uma pirâmide declarada na sua própria documentação oficial. Infelizmente, mais uma shitcoin. Vende a ideia de descentralização e justiça, mas não tem nada descentralizado e muito menos justa, usando da falácia argumentativa e frases de efeito tenta vender sua pirâmide financeira. (OBS: os primeiros capítulos do Whitepaper de 2019 são concentrados em atacar o Bitcoin e seu ambiente, mas sem a coragem de pelo menos descrever corretamente como o ambiente funciona. Soltando verdades pela metade leva o leitor a achar que o ambiente do Bitcoin é malicioso e precisa de ‘melhorias’) 1. Introduction: Why cryptocurrencies matter - Traz alguns argumentos para validar a existência do Pi Network, cita falhas do sistema fia, mas não citou o maior problema: Inflação e/ou impressão de dinheiro; 2. Securing Distributed Ledgers (Mining) - “*This process (Bitcoin mining) is very secure, but it demands enormous computing power and energy consumption as users essentially “burn money” to solve the computational puzzle that earns them more Bitcoin. The burn-to-reward ratio is so punitive that it is always in Validators’ self-interest to post honest transactions to the Bitcoin record.*” - Aqui é descrito como se a base da “Prova de Trabalho” fosse punitiva “burn-to-reward”, quando na verdade  é completamente o contrário: meritocracia total. Trabalhe de forma justa, com dados reais, não tente burlar o sistema e você será recompensado, não importa quem você é ou de onde você vem. Seja justo, trabalhe e seja recompensado. 3. Problem: Centralization of power and money put 1st Generation Cryptocurrencies out of reach - O capítulo inteiro é focado em criticar o PoW, sendo que PoW + ”algoritmo de consenso” é a base da solução do problema do “General Bizantino” em um sistema descentralizado. Usando argumentos de ‘excesso de consumo de energia’ e outros para causar desprezo à tecnologia. - O Bitcoin é o mercado mundial que mais usa energia renovável. Em 2022 tinha um total de 56% de toda a rede de mineração rodando sobre energias renováveis (2). No Brasil temos algumas empresas que atuam em reutilização de energia renovável para mineração de Bitcoin (3). 4. A Simplified Introduction To Consensus Algorithms - A explicação desse capítulo ficou MUITO vago, deixando a entender que o que o minerador coloca no bloco é válido como dado real. Quando na realidade isso não é verdade: o minerador (Mining Node) realmente precisa fazer cálculos computacionais e quem achar o bloco ganha o direito de enviar essa informação para os Nós (“validation” nodes, se é que eu posso chamá-los assim), então os Nós é que vão decidir de forma descentralizada se aquele bloco é válido ou não, caso não seja, recusando o bloco e aceitando o próximo bloco válido. 5. A Simplified Introduction To Stellar Consensus Protocol - Este capítulo já começa reforçando a falácia anterior “Pi uses the other type of consensus algorithms”, tentando reforçar que o mecanismo de consenso do Bitcoin é inseguro ou custoso, sendo que no capítulo anterior eles misturaram a prova de trabalho (mineração) com a validação dos blocos, que é realmente o “consensus algorithms”, ou seja, o argumento utilizado aqui é nulo, não fazendo sentido além do de tentar levar o leitor a menosprezar a solução do Bitcoin. - “*One major criticism of BFT (Byzantine Fault Tolerance) is that it has a centralization point: because voting is involved, the set of nodes participating in the voting “quorum” are centrally determined by the creator of the system in its beginning.*” 1. Não sei qual BFT exatamente eles estão criticando aqui, mas certamente não é o Bitcoin. Os Nós (“validation” nodes) não são centralmente especificados, qualquer um pode entrar como um nós validador e fazer parte da validação dos blocos, rejeitando aqueles que considera não verdadeiros por N motivos. O sistema de consenso do Bitcoin é feito por %, se 51% dos nós validadores aceitam o bloco (minerado pelo nó minerador) aquele bloco é então visto como válido. Se 51% rejeitam, aquele bloco é rejeitado por toda a rede. 6. Pi’s Adaptations to Stellar Consensus Protocol (SCP) - “*For example, once a week, the stellar network is using it to compute inflation on the stellar network and allocate the newly minted tokens proportionally to all stellar coin holders (Stellar’s coin is called lumens). In a similar manner, the Pi network employs SCP once a day to compute the network-wide new Pi distribution across all Pi miners (pioneers, contributors, ambassadors, nodes) who actively participated in any given day. In other words, Pi mining rewards are computed only once daily and not on every block of the blockchain.*”  1. Aqui está deixando claro a centralização da recompensa? Não ficou muito claro, mas me parece que a recompensa é mantida em um wallet temporária (controlada por quem? pelo ambiente? Isso quer dizer que a equipe de desenvolvimento controla a wallet?) e distribuída no fim do dia. Qual o nível de transparência desse processo? É possível analisar tudo capital armazenado, de onde veio, para onde está indo, quanto foi para cada ‘mão’?. - “*Mining pools are not only points of centralization, but also their operators get cuts reducing the amount going to individual miners.  In Pi, there is no need for mining pools, since once a day everyone who contributed get a meritocratic distribution of new Pi.*”  1. Aqui reforça a solução centralizada que eles mesmo acabaram de criticar. Se meus fundos vão ficar na mão da “Pi Network” que seja 1 dia apenas, então eles estão centralizando os incentivos. 7. Pi Economic Model: Balancing Scarcity and Access - Inverted Means Uneven 1. Bem vindo à meritocracia, bem vindo à prova de trabalho, bem vindo à vida real. Quem viu a qualidade e futuro na solução XYZ e gastou seu próprio tempo entendendo, aprendendo e se especializando, consequentemente ganha mais. Isso não quer dizer que quem está entrando agora não ganhe ou esteja “burning more energy for less bitcoin”, eles entram agora sabendo que a recompensa é menor e que o trabalho está mais difícil, mas mesmo assim acreditam no potencial da solução. - Hoarding Inhibits Use As A Medium Of Exchange 1. É necessário entender a história do dinheiro. Qualquer dinheiro precisa primeiro passar pelo processo de “reserva de valor” <https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1400/1\*7-2w9CZn8yVeO31SmBQqow.png>  2. Abstrairei aqui as camadas 2: Lightning, LIquid, Ark e etc, que já são usadas há alguns anos justamente para resolver o problema de “apenas reserva de valor e não moeda de troca” 8. The Pi Economic Model - Aqui temos um grande problema: levando em consideração que os fundos diários serão centralizados em uma ‘carteira temporária’ (isso foi especificado no capítulo “Transaction fees”, sem especificar quem ou o que controla essa carteira) , e unindo isso com a ‘distribuição justa’ e o fato de que eles querem ‘garantir que grandes quantidade de Pi não sejam concentradas em poucas mãos’, me vem a pergunta: quem decide o que é justo? Quem decide a distribuição justa? Quem decide o quanto é “grande quantidade”? 9. Pi – Token Supply - M=∫ f(P), uma função logarítmica decrescente, onde P é a quantidade de participantes. Resumidamente: M paga menos a cada novo integrante na rede - R=(r\*M), onde a distribuição por novo membro acontece com 25% para o indicado (novo membro) 25% para o indicador (o membro que indicou) e 50% distribuído para o resto da rede - D=t\*(M+R), remuneração dos desenvolvedores. Fixando t=25% de cada Pi token gerado - Acredito que a fórmula final pode ser traduzida como: (∫f(P)dx)⋅(1+r)⋅(1+t) - Tendo em vista esta tradução dissertativa do cálculo de “Token Supply”, é possível considerar que Pi Network é uma pirâmide: a recompensa é distribuída entre ‘indicado’ (novo membro), ‘indicador’ (quem indicou), equipe de manutenção da rede e por fim, o resto da rede. Essa recompensa diminui a cada novo membro na rede, forçando todos a continuar introduzindo mais membros (obviamente novos membros são incentivados com mais afinco para essa atividade, ou seja, se não indicarem mais membros, não ganham mais incentivos) - Apesar de existir recompensa através de taxas de transação, essa recompensa traz um grande problema que já foi citado anteriormente: centralização. 10. Outras críticas gratuitas sem nexo(?) - Em vários pontos eles só soltam informações soltas sem contexto tentando direcionar o leitor a uma avaliação falaciosa do ambiente do Bitcoin: - *“While Bitcoin’s process for updating its record is proven (burning energy / money to prove trustworthiness), it is not very user (or planet!) friendly.”* 1. *Utilizando frases de efeito de um problema inexistente para validar a necessidade da solução proposta. Já é comprovado que o Bitcoin não consome energia em excesso, não é um perigo para o meio ambiente, muito pelo contrário.* - “*Moreover, due to Bitcoin’s lack in the safety guarantee, Bitcoin’s blockchain in rare occasions can be overwritten within the first hour. This means that a user of Bitcoin must wait about 1 hour before they can be sure that a transaction is considered final.*” 1. “lack of safety guarantee” leva o leitor a achar que existe um problema de segurança 2. “in rare occasions can be overwritten” se qualquer bloco do Bitcoin for reescrito, então a rede foi hackeada, fim! Não existe forma de reescrever um bloco sem ultrapassar 51% da PoW atual. 11. Stella Core (Stellar Consensus Protocol SCP) - A equipe/gestora inicial são sabiamente conhecidos, vou abstrair toda e qualquer argumentação lógica do pq isso é terrível para o sistema. - Eles fazem questão de deixar tds os responsáveis pelo protocolo conhecidos <https://stellar.org/foundation/team>  - O David Mazières, autor principal do SCP, parece o Vitalik Buterin, criador da shitcoin Ethereum. Isso não deve ser levado como argumento válido! - <https://github.com/stellar/stellar-core/tree/master> - Sim, o protocolo é Open Source, já possui 81 contribuições de pessoas conhecidas e anônimas. Mas o fato de os principais gestores e mantenedores do projeto serem conhecidos cria um grande problema de segurança no protocolo. Em caso de um projeto deste vir a realmente ser útil e financeiramente rentável, basta impor sanções governamentais, processos ‘legais’, prisão ou sequestrar familiares e assim obrigar o protocolo mudar de objetivo/função/código. - Pré-mining(?): vários artigos citam ‘pioneiros’ migrando Pi Coin para a main net, ou seja, induz a ideia de pré-mining? 1. <https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/new-updates/pi-network-coins-62-crash-explainedwhy-it-declined-and-what-it-means-for-crypto-enthusiasts/articleshow/118442880.cms?from=mdr> 2. <https://cointelegraph.com/explained/pi-network-mainnet-launch-what-it-means-for-pioneers> 3. <https://explorepi.info/en/statistic> 4. Mas baseado no capítulo do Whitepaper, o capítulo “Pi – Token Supply“ especifica que o grupo de desenvolvedores (que mantém o protocolo) receberá 25% de todos os tokens, sabendo que o número de participantes é fixado em 100 milhões, podemos deduzir que 25% dos tokens foram pré-minerados para o grupo de desenvolvedores. - Transparência e KYC 1. Apesar da teórica descentralização da mineração, os nós precisam de KYC, possivelmente armazenado em um servidor central do SCP, apesar de não estar claro como o processo deles funciona, qualquer tipo de centralização e obtenção de dados pessoais levanta extrema cautela. - <https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/20211503293737>  - <https://www.reddit.com/r/PiNetwork/comments/1isjnve/issue_with_kyc_on_pi_network_after_reinstalling/> - <https://coindcx.com/blog/crypto-news-global/pi-network-kyc-deadline-and-mainnet-launch/>  - Possui equipe formalmente organizada 1. Equipe de marketing 2. Fundação bem organizada 3. Hierárquica interna \ O artigo se chama "(quase) Análise" justamente por que não tive condições de terminar os dois documentos. \[1\] <https://minepi.com/white-paper/#original-whitepaper>  \[2\] <https://www.bitstamp.net/en-gb/learn/crypto-101/bitcoin-energy/#:\~:text=Bitcoin%20and%20clean%20energy,use%20was%20closer%20to%2040%25>.  \[3\] <https://br.cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-mining-renewable-energy-transition><https://brasilbitcoin.com.br/blog/a-evolucao-da-mineracao-sustentavel-de-bitcoin/><https://www.infomoney.com.br/onde-investir/mineracao-de-bitcoin-pode-ajudar-a-reduzir-energia-ociosa-no-brasil-diz-estudo/>

@ 88cc134b:5ae99079

@ 88cc134b:5ae99079

@ 88cc134b:5ae99079

@ 6f26dd2b:f2824b88

💭 There are some interesting noises about Bitcoin coming from the most unlikely of sources. The Czech central bank says that Bitcoin “should not be lumped together with other crypto assets.” “We central bankers should study it,” says the Bank’s governor. Meanwhile, other central banks are just as keen to distance themselves from Bitcoin. A divide about Bitcoin is opening up in the central banking world!

@ 2e8970de:63345c7a

Atlanta Fed is now projecting Q1 GDP -1.5%. Last week it was +2.3%. 4 weeks ago it was +3.9%  https://x.com/AtlantaFed/status/1895508046215852476 originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/899962

@ 6fac7d89:9d76f561

With the price of Bitcoin having gone significantly up over the past few months (I wrote this about a month ago to post on Stacker News), I imagine interest in acquiring it has gone up as well. As such, I'm here to share with you every method I use to stack sats so that we can all HODL more. While the majority of my experience in regards to phone apps is on Android, some of the apps mentioned may work on iPhone as well (I just got an iOS based device and intend to discover methods on there as well with time) so links provided will be the Play Store or my referral links. Some of the referral messages have included Apple App Store links by default so I've left them in.     Bitcoin Education:   First and foremost, I think that anyone seeking to acquire BTC should learn about it. From how it works, to how to acquire and then store it. As such, this first category I'm covering is for BTC education resources that also reward you with satoshis for your learning progress.   Yzer: Probably my favorite app in this category as it covers more than the others mentioned in greater depth. While the other apps do cover some aspects of the history of money, economics, and investing/finance, this one really delves into it to offer the most robust education of the bunch. I didn't even know about Austrian economics until going through the lessons provided here, and it boasts the most lessons of this category as well. Each section is divided into chapters containing a few lessons and an end-of-chapter quiz, and you have a chance of earning a few satoshis upon completion of a lesson or quiz. Use my referral code to earn an extra 50 sats upon reaching level 2: KAB4ZKD https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=io.wizzer.academy&pcampaignid=web_share   Simple Bitcoin: This app can be breezed through in regards to the lessons offered, allowing you to complete the learning aspect of it pretty quickly. Instead of rewarding sats outright for completion of lessons, this app rewards you with tickets you can spend to spin a wheel to earn small amounts of sats. Where this app shines is that while Yzer stops rewards when all lessons are completed, Simple Bitcoin has a news section where articles from outside sources are summarized, and reading them earns you more tickets. There is a limit to how many articles/day you can read unless you pay for premium, however, which also increases the reward amounts feature on the prize wheel. https://simplebitcoin.page.link/ozJaD6uCaUyscYWy6   Jippi: The newest of the bunch in this category, Jippi is still in its earlier stages of development and thus is the least robust. This one works a little differently as, for the time being, you need to complete all available lessons to earn a lump sum reward of 200 sats. Unlike the other educational apps, this one offers audio lessons to listen to for completion alongside the usual texts to read. While still in development, they plan to release a feature called "Tribe Clash" which they describe as "Pokemon Go for Bitcoin". https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.jippiApp.jippi.prod&pcampaignid=web_share     Buying Bitcoin: So now you know about Bitcoin, but how can you buy some? While there are many crypto exchanges that offer BTC, this bitcoin-only service offers a more robust experience in regards to BTC and the purchase of it.   Swan: While Swan allows you to buy BTC outright or via recurring buy (DCA), it has some additional interesting features and offerings as well. Their learn section allows you to further educate yourself on various aspects of bitcoin and perspectives on it, and they even offer a Bitcoin IRA (either Traditional or Roth) for those interested in such a service. The caveat to the IRA is that you'll be entrusting them with your BTC instead of having full custody and responsibility of it yourself. Use my referral link and get $10 of BTC: https://www.swanbitcoin.com/MF_MOON     Cash-Back: The next category I'll be covering is cash-back options, be they via spending with a certain card or using apps/extensions to earn sats on your purchases. Because if you're going to spend money anyways, why not try to get some of that money back in sats for your stack?   Satsback: This browser extension works pretty similar to other cash-back extensions if you've ever tried them: if you're on a site which the extension offers cash-back on, a pop-up to activate it will appear. Make sure to have adblockers and (possibly) your VPN disabled before activating to ensure you get your reward (I suggest you do this for any similar extensions mentioned below as well). https://satsback.com/register/k524KP0olqLX19Ov   Fold Debit Card: Fold has several options that allow you to earn sats, one of which is the option to buy gift cards to popular retailers like Amazon, Google Play, Home Depot, Bass Pro Shop, AirBnB and more and earn sats back on the purchase. You can earn even more sats back by paying for these gift cards with their debit card, which needs to be pre-loaded to use, but using another card will still earn you sats, albeit at a lower rate. If you do have their debit card and opt for their premium service, Fold+, you can also earn 1.5% back on all purchases made with said card. Fold+ even offers you cash back on paying bills with the account and routing numbers they provide, though you need to hit certain spending thresholds in the prior month to be eligible for this feature. The app also offers a daily spin to earn small amounts of sats, with higher amounts including a whole Bitcoin locked behind the premium membership. Depending on your average spending and bills, this could be worth it though. https://use.foldapp.com/r/3RHW4FUJ   CoinMiles: CoinMiles is like SatsBack in the sense that it lets you earn cash-back in bitcoin via online retailers within their app (similar to Lolli below) with the added feature of cash-back in sats on the purchase of gift cards as well, similar to Fold. Using my referral code will earn us both 5000 sats. https://coinmiles.onelink.me/90Pp/96f2tati   Gemini Credit Card: Crypto exchange Gemini offers a credit card that offers some pretty nice rewards for using it, which has become my go-to method of spending at this point. Allowing you to choose from every crypto asset they offer for your cash-back rewards, you can earn in more than just Bitcoin with this card. The rewards rates are as follows: 4% back on gas at the pump and EV charging, 3% back on dining, 2% back on groceries, and 1% back on everything else. They also have "Merchant Reward Offers" in which they offer a higher rate in cash back on top of the default rate for the category the merchant falls under, I've gotten a total of 8% back at a local brewery using this as it automatically applies if you use the card at said locations. Rewards are issued and credited to your Gemini accounts instantly upon making said purchase. The one issue I take with the exchange is that without lightning integration, BTC withdrawal fees can get steep. As a result, I opt to earn in another asset with lower withdrawal fees and swap said asset for BTC via an external swapping service. If you choose to purchase assets directly via the exchange as well, using my referral link can earn you referral rewards that scale with how much crypto you purchase with them: https://www.gemini.com/share/wwm6w8a3e   Lolli: Boasting both an app and a browser extension, Lolli offers not only cash-back similar to SatsBack, but also card boosts, which reward you for paying with a linked credit or debit card in stores they offer. Simply activate the boost before paying with your linked card to earn cash-back in sats, or when shopping online, activate cash back via a pop-up from the browser extension or clicking the retailer within the app to be directed to their site. Similar to Fold, the app features a daily way to earn small amounts of sats. https://lolli.com/share/T2r2NYSr7A   Bitcoin Company Rewards: Another app that allows you to buy gift cards and earn sats back on the purchase, this one has the standout option of offering Visa gift cards within the US to earn a small amount of sats back on, among many other card offerings. Use my referral code to earn 1000 sats to start. Referral Code: O30WN3 https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.tbtc_app&pcampaignid=web_share     Social Media: These next two are, in my opinion, the future of social media, and you can earn on them too!   Stacker News: Reddit meets Hacker News on this site, which encourages quality content through the implementation of the lightning network and satoshis. You don't have to be signed up to browse and read content on here, but you should be, and you should use my referral link to do so! https://stacker.news/r/MF_MOON   Nostr: This one can be a little tougher to describe, but I'll do my best. Nostr is a social media platform that operates on an open-source protocol that supports of variety of applications or "clients" utilizing a unique public and private key pair. Connections can be maintained across clients, which are often made to emulate the more well-known social media services out there. It can be daunting to get into at first, and requires some involvement as there are no built-in algorithms (though devs are starting to provide ways to implement some for discoverability) but it boasts a great community. Users can "zap" each other sats for content they like, and it's integrated with a number of other services at this point including Fountain and Wavlake (see below). Feel free to follow me on there: https://njump.me/nprofile1qqsglhkx0ey8pdac9ne4w9m4tzglpv2tkl8tvuyc9dzgyrgj07lk42ccwtvy9     Music & Podcasts: Want to earn sats for offering up your ears while doing other things? With these apps, you can enjoy your favorite podcasts and discover new music to earn sats as you listen.   Wavlake: While this app allows you to listen to promoted songs to earn a few sats each day, it also offers you the ability to earn sats on your own music and podcasts that you upload to the service. If people listen to your content via the service and like it, they can send you sats, along with feedback and other comments. There is a flat fee of 10% of all earnings for creators, but it's another way to get your content some exposure and possible earn some sats along the way! https://wavlake.com/     Cloud Mining: The next section I'll be covering is a bit of a dicey topic as some consider it to be scam. While I agree that paying for cloud mining is absolutely a scam, the services I'll be mentioning here offer free options that offer low earnings but only require a daily check in that I do all at once. While I can't tell you how to spend your money, I HIGHLY suggest you avoid spending any money on higher mining rates and spend that money on BTC directly instead.   Bitcoin Mining (Crypto Miner): This one offers you 2 free "mining contracts": 1 that you can claim every 8 hours, and another that serves as a daily check-in reward for checking in consistently, as rewards increase the longer your check-in streak is. Claiming contracts involves simply tapping the corresponding claim button, so I usually claim the 8 hour contract 2 times a day and the daily one when I go to make the 2nd 8 hour claim. Your free earning rate can be increased by watching ads for a temporary boost if you so desire as well. You can get an extra 10% in earnings using my referral link. https://cloudminecrypto.com/?invite_code=R0yMgkOEmEajYvD6 or download the app and add my invite code R0yMgkOEmEajYvD6 directly.   Bitcoin Mining: This one is pretty similar to the previous one, but the free 8 hour mining option can only be activated once per day even if it's finished, unlike the other one. Similar to the prior app, you can watch ads to boost mining rate if you so desire. A nice feature of this one is that it integrates popular lighting wallets including Speed, ZBD and Muun for more seamless withdrawals. My invitation code:5UHLF Appstore: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/id6503180820 Google play: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=bitcoin.minning.com   Ember: While this started off as a regular mining app on which you check in once a day, they've changed their model up a bit recently: you now earn "bonus sats" which must be gambled in games, and the sats earned from said games are then withdrawable. Essentially, you have to convert your earnings via a gambling game of some sort to make them eligible for withdrawal, with the risk of losing them along the way. However, this one earns the most in this category by far, especially if you have a network of friends to mine with as this affords you increased earning rates. Referral Code: MNGCC33WRON https://emberfund.onelink.me/ljTI/l4g18zii?mining_referrer_id=MNGCC33WRON   Games: Here we have games that offer BTC as rewards for paying in small amounts. While they won't earn you a ton, they're nice little time-killers to earn you sats on the side.   ZBD: While technically a lightning wallet, the following app are powered by ZBD wallet, so you'll want to install this to claim your earnings from them. ZBD offers a variety of ways to earn should you choose to dabble in them, from completing surveys to watching videos to trying out games that allow you to earn from play time. The options I personally opt for are their daily poll and playing the next game listed below, as it allows you to earn without a "time-gated" mechanic: if you build up your game to a certain point and will allow you to earn more rapidly than any others I've tried. But see what games they offer and if you find them fun, go for it! Referral Code: PEXE52 https://zbd.link/hcHi/invite?af_sub1=PEXE52   Bitcoin Miner: Being an idle game, this one has a slow start but with a little dedication, can become one of the quickest and most consistent earners in this category. The daily withdrawal limit is unfortunately 330 sats, but when you're maxed out in the current state of the game, you can earn this within 3.5 resets, each of which takes me under minutes to max out with the right strategy and which can be done once every 30 minutes. A one-time purchase of $11.99 will remove all ads, which in my opinion is worth it as you can earn $10/mo in BTC with this game. Using my referral code will net you some of the premium in-game currency to get you started off nicely. Referral Code: 8H44HB Google Play: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.fumbgames.bitcoinminor&pcampaignid=web_share Apple App Store: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/bitcoin-miner-idle-tycoon/id1413770650   THNDR Games: THNDR is a developer that offers a few different games you can play to earn tickets in timed drawings to earn sats, and with your tickets across their games pooling up in a single grand total for the prize drawing when the time comes. I personally find their game "Bitcoin Bay" (a bubble popping game) to be the one that strikes the best balance of fun and earning potential, so its the only one I keep on my phone (I don't want to be playing games on my phone much in my day as it is) but it's really a matter of personal preference which game of theirs you want to play. A nice feature here is that they integrate with lightning wallets including ZBD, Speed, and Strike among others. https://bitcoinbay.thndr.games/r/tdhP   Bling: Bling is a developer that makes a number of "match" games a la Candy Crush that allow you to earn in BTC and some of which offer earnings in other crytpo assets as well. I personally play their game "Sweet Bitcoin" as I find it to be the most visually appealing, but they all appear to earn at the same rate in my experience. The on caveat to these games is that it has an "energy" system similar to Candy Crush which allows you to play a limited number of games as a time-gating mechanism until you "recharge" plays. For this reason, if this is your preferred type of game, you may want to download more than one of their offerings to be able to earn more in less time. Their games offer withdrawals that integrate CoinBase, Lightning options ZBD and Strike, and PayPal (but only in USD for this option). https://bln.gg/1NC-CQX-JDK   Earn While You Browse: This last one is an extension on your browser that allows you to earn sats as you browse the web. Slice: This browser extension adds small ads to sies you visit as you browse, paying you for the respective views. They also offer the option to change your new tab page & default browser for additional earnings, as well as a desktop app to display ads in the bottom right of your screen for even more opportunities to earn. The only downside to this is that your VPN must be turned off, and earnings are made in "slices" which must then be converted to sats. https://addslice.com/?crew=FjVuNqgg     And there you have it folks, every single method I use to accumulate sats/BTC all in one quick read for your convenience. Given that I've recently also joined the iOS eco-system, I intend to explore that side of earning apps as well, so let me know if any of you want me to share what I find after I spend some time with it, or if you recommend any apps I should check out. I also have methods of earning other coins in passive or semi-passive ways that I then convert into BTC and am happy to share if interest is expressed, or even ways I earn USD in such ways. Feel free to follow me on Nostr (link mentioned above) and to share the ways you earn sats on the side that I may have missed. Stay humble and keep stacking!

@ 6260f29f:2ee2fcd4

<div style="position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;height:0;overflow:hidden;max-width:100%;"><video style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;border:0;" controls> <source src="https://plebdevs-bucket.nyc3.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/testr.mp4" type="video/mp4"/> </video></div>

@ ef1744f8:96fbc3fe

y2d7pExtIazBUckiwKfbjrtVgKBmiwO6o1Zof8apH1BW4CUN0CUMwEvfz5ZFcOHeG3O4AA+LlA7wP5R25MtltS+QnweC6oVpxBNFK+Ip/6PzoG8TTcfghm1I9AM23OAmN9AIcB9u9MgVzlUTXMe315FY3tYCTkEabUOFhFtaLramMHbWng9Inlf3sEauHMpr?iv=rW/xc4LIYFoSibLGj8wgcA==

@ ef1744f8:96fbc3fe

UE84clEq0aBc37LbxcNS2GwWdAF4Z+3e96EwrjYQAi/Wzu30jsURRRghiilLY5EWfa/8DJbDy+IYU8hOmdo6lIvYY20PeswXGlFBBy8YFEj0vwrOK7iMIwWTK1ZVFOl6744DYFFP6qqCJGvlsB0uX3kh2i3mtmhd7j8beqxCNu8CCMI9w7B7vSBF1GsnOwQt?iv=T3LDcc5D4rY8JJyN3d886A==

@ ef1744f8:96fbc3fe

soyZKFII5uLafJNWMAu/LFF8aj1ctwCPEudtezgpqpeZxD4dzkecaW9D26kJLtKGjTWhAlNJp0f64Pc3iCyxSAYUtuiiiJqP9mNd0OAEKKpZ1EbakRl8AABIBswE/gOwHuZl7WlycGLHb3/MK0n3RaZ6lhOqqlKXS/r1IjrjtxKeS9FdsBsNjkumjDbubYA/?iv=JVecnqJHmxtDlu2LflTVWA==

@ 54609048:8e22ba03

The recent $1.4 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) agreement between the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and El Salvador marks a significant turning point in the nation's economic and monetary policy. The IMF’s $1.4 billion “lifeline” is a sly Trojan horse, gutting El Salvador’s sovereignty and kneecapping its 2021 Bitcoin law— which represented a bold step toward monetary freedom and economic self-determination— all to prop up the same economic mess it pretends to fix. Brilliant, right? **The IMF’s Colonialist Agenda: A Historical Precedent** In 2021, El Salvador made history by adopting Bitcoin as legal tender, positioning itself at the forefront of financial innovation and offering its citizens an alternative to the U.S. dollar. This move was a bold step toward monetary independence and as a pathway toward individual financial sovereignty by reducing remittance costs for Salvadorans and bypassing the predatory international banking system. By making Bitcoin legal tender, El Salvador was taking steps to free itself from financial colonialism. The IMF’s response to El Salvador’s Bitcoin law was predictably hostile from day one. The institution repeatedly warned of the “risks” associated with Bitcoin, framing it as a threat to financial stability rather than a tool for economic empowerment. Hypocrisy drips from every word—the IMF’s own debt traps and inflationary schemes have fueled the chaos it now “rescues” El Salvador from. The Bretton Woods institution has long been the enforcer of the global financial elite, ensuring that nations remain shackled to the U.S. dollar-dominated system. Through predatory loans and stringent conditions, the IMF perpetuates economic subjugation. Now, facing pressure from these same institutions, El Salvador finds itself caught in the classic IMF trap: accepting loans with strings attached that further cement dependency. This aid package isn't a solution to El Salvador's problems; it's leverage to force compliance with the global banking cartel's agenda. Under the IMF agreement, El Salvador has been compelled to amend its Bitcoin law, revoking Bitcoin's status as legal tender and making its acceptance by businesses voluntary. Additionally, tax obligations must now be settled exclusively in U.S. dollars. This gut-wrenching retreat from its bold Bitcoin rebellion represents a diabolical masterpiece of oppression—stripping citizens of financial freedom and forcing them to forever bow before the fiat gods. **Why the IMF Must Destroy Bitcoin’s Medium of Exchange Use Case ** To understand why the IMF is so determined to undermine Bitcoin’s role as a medium of exchange in El Salvador, it’s important to revisit the fundamental nature of money. The widely cited “three functions” of money—medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account—are often misunderstood. These are not rigid definitions, but empirical observations of how money functions in practice. Money is, first and foremost, the generally accepted medium of exchange. The other functions tend to follow, but they are not exclusive to money. For example, gold can serve as a store of value but is no longer a commonly accepted medium of exchange, and other commodities can also act as units of account, but neither is money unless it is widely accepted as a medium of exchange. Bitcoin’s rise as a store of value (akin to “digital gold”) is not as threatening to the fiat system as its potential to function as a widely accepted medium of exchange. A strong store of value can exist within a system that is still dominated by fiat currencies. If Bitcoin were to become a dominant medium of exchange, it would directly challenge the monopoly of central banks and the control that institutions like the IMF exert over global financial systems. That is why the IMF’s primary goal in El Salvador is not necessarily to stop Bitcoin’s adoption altogether but rather to strip Bitcoin of its medium of exchange function, thus effectively relegating Bitcoin to a speculative asset or store of value. Furthermore, this Bitcoin experiment was the first real-world test of Bitcoin as a medium of exchange at the nation-state level. If it had succeeded, other countries—especially those in the Global South struggling with inflation, currency devaluation, and IMF-imposed austerity—might have followed suit. The IMF couldn't afford to let that happen. By neutralizing Bitcoin's role as money, it ensures that alternative financial systems do not gain traction outside the fiat-based global order. In other words, as long as Bitcoin can't be used freely as a medium of exchange, it cannot fulfill its role as money, and the fiat gods' grip on the global monetary system remains unchallenged—at least for now. **The $1.4 Billion Faustian Bargain** El Salvador’s decision to seek IMF funding is a reflection of the immense pressure it faces from global financial markets and institutions. The country’s high debt levels and weak external buffers are, in large part, a consequence of its integration into a global financial system that prioritizes short-term capital flows over long-term economic stability. By accepting the IMF’s terms, El Salvador has effectively traded its sovereignty for temporary financial relief. What is even more surprising is that El Salvador had an alternative to this Faustian bargain: the issuance of Bitcoin bonds. While initially proposed as a way to finance Bitcoin City and geothermal Bitcoin mining infrastructure, the volcano bonds the country could have raised the $1.4 billion needed without sacrificing its monetary sovereignty. This represents a missed opportunity for El Salvador to bolster its financial independence, attract global capital, and solidify its position as a pioneer in the adoption of decentralized money. Instead of falling back into the IMF’s debt trap—complete with austerity measures, restrictions on Bitcoin use, and financial surveillance—El Salvador could have embraced a Bitcoin-native financial strategy that aligned with its long-term vision of economic independence. So why didn't El Salvador go through with the Bitcoin bond issuance? I don't know, but if I were to speculate, I would say the answer likely lies in political and institutional inertia, coupled with external pressures from the IMF and its allied institutions, or worse. If El Salvador had raised capital through Bitcoin bonds, it would have sent shockwaves through the financial world, proving that a nation-state could operate independently of the IMF. **The Long-Term Consequences for El Salvador** While the IMF’s program may provide short-term relief, its long-term consequences are likely to be detrimental to the Salvadoran people. The emphasis on fiscal consolidation and debt reduction will inevitably lead to cuts in public spending, particularly in areas such as social services and infrastructure. These measures will disproportionately affect the most vulnerable segments of society, exacerbating inequality and undermining the country’s social fabric. Moreover, the IMF’s focus on “strengthening governance and transparency” is a thinly veiled attempt to impose external control over El Salvador’s domestic policies. The requirement to enhance Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) frameworks, while ostensibly aimed at combating illicit activities, will likely be used to surveil and restrict the financial activities of ordinary citizens. This represents a gross violation of individual rights and a further erosion of economic freedom. **Conclusion** The IMF's $1.4 billion arrangement with El Salvador represents not economic salvation but a calculated reassertion of control. By forcing El Salvador to retreat from its Bitcoin initiative, the IMF is protecting the very system that has kept developing nations financially subjugated for decades. For Salvadorans, this means their bold experiment in monetary sovereignty has been curtailed, not by market forces or technological limitations, but by the deliberate intervention of the guardians of the old financial order. Those who believe in true financial freedom must recognize this for what it is: not assistance, but suppression; not aid, but control. The battle for monetary sovereignty continues, and despite this setback, Bitcoin's promise of financial liberation remains as vital as ever—not just for El Salvador, but for all those seeking escape from the oppressive machinery of central banking

@ b2d670de:907f9d4a

# onion-service-nostr-relays A list of nostr relays exposed as onion services. ## The list | Relay name | Description | Onion url | Operator | Payment URL | Payment options | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | nostr.oxtr.dev | Same relay as clearnet relay nostr.oxtr.dev | ws://oxtrdevav64z64yb7x6rjg4ntzqjhedm5b5zjqulugknhzr46ny2qbad.onion | [operator](nostr:nprofile1qqst94nsmefmya53crp5qq39kewrtgndqcynhnzp7j8lcu0qjple6jspz3mhxue69uhkummnw3ezummcw3ezuer9wcq3gamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwv3sk6atn9e5k7jxrgyy) | N/A | N/A | | relay.snort.social | Same relay as clearnet relay relay.snort.social | wss://skzzn6cimfdv5e2phjc4yr5v7ikbxtn5f7dkwn5c7v47tduzlbosqmqd.onion | [operator](nostr:nprofile1qqsx8lnrrrw9skpulctgzruxm5y7rzlaw64tcf9qpqww9pt0xvzsfmgpzpmhxue69uhkummnw3ezuamfdejszxrhwden5te0wfjkccte9eekummjwsh8xmmrd9skct9tyup) | N/A | N/A | | nostr.thesamecat.io | Same relay as clearnet relay nostr.thesamecat.io | ws://2jsnlhfnelig5acq6iacydmzdbdmg7xwunm4xl6qwbvzacw4lwrjmlyd.onion | [operator](nostr:npub1wtuh24gpuxjyvnmjwlvxzg8k0elhasagfmmgz0x8vp4ltcy8ples54e7js) | N/A | N/A | | nostr.land | The nostr.land paid relay (same as clearnet) | ws://nostrland2gdw7g3y77ctftovvil76vquipymo7tsctlxpiwknevzfid.onion | [operator](nostr:npub12262qa4uhw7u8gdwlgmntqtv7aye8vdcmvszkqwgs0zchel6mz7s6cgrkj) | [Payment URL](http://nostrland2gdw7g3y77ctftovvil76vquipymo7tsctlxpiwknevzfid.onion) | BTC LN | | bitcoiner.social | No auth required, currently | ws://bitcoinr6de5lkvx4tpwdmzrdfdpla5sya2afwpcabjup2xpi5dulbad.onion | [operator](nostr:npub1an3nz7lczcunpdw6ltjst94hgzcxpppnk7zk3zr2nfcj4yd96kdse6twjd) | N/A | N/A | | relay.westernbtc.com | The westernbtc.com paid relay | ws://westbtcebhgi4ilxxziefho6bqu5lqwa5ncfjefnfebbhx2cwqx5knyd.onion | [operator](nostr:npub1pc57ls4rad5kvsp733suhzl2d4u9y7h4upt952a2pucnalc59teq33dmza) | [Payment URL](hjar34h5zwgtvxr345q7rncso3dhdaryuxgri3lu7lbhmnzvin72z5ad.onion) | BTC LN | | freelay.sovbit.host | Free relay for sovbit.host | ws://sovbitm2enxfr5ot6qscwy5ermdffbqscy66wirkbsigvcshumyzbbqd.onion | [operator](nostr:npub1gnwpctdec0aa00hfy4lvadftu08ccs9677mr73h9ddv2zvw8fu9smmerrq) | N/A | N/A | | nostr.sovbit.host | Paid relay for sovbit.host | ws://sovbitgz5uqyh7jwcsudq4sspxlj4kbnurvd3xarkkx2use3k6rlibqd.onion | [operator](nostr:npub1gnwpctdec0aa00hfy4lvadftu08ccs9677mr73h9ddv2zvw8fu9smmerrq) | N/A | N/A | | nostr.wine | 🍷 [nostr.wine](https://nostr.wine) relay | ws://nostrwinemdptvqukjttinajfeedhf46hfd5bz2aj2q5uwp7zros3nad.onion | [operator](nostr:npub1fyvwkve2gxm3h2d8fvwuvsnkell4jtj4zpae8w4w8zhn2g89t96s0tsfuk) | [Payment URL](http://nostrwinemdptvqukjttinajfeedhf46hfd5bz2aj2q5uwp7zros3nad.onion) | BTC LN, BTC, Credit Card/CashApp (Stripe) | | inbox.nostr.wine | 🍷 [inbox.nostr.wine](https://inbox.nostr.wine) relay | ws://wineinboxkayswlofkugkjwhoyi744qvlzdxlmdvwe7cei2xxy4gc6ad.onion | [operator](nostr:npub1fyvwkve2gxm3h2d8fvwuvsnkell4jtj4zpae8w4w8zhn2g89t96s0tsfuk) | [Payment URL](http://wineinboxkayswlofkugkjwhoyi744qvlzdxlmdvwe7cei2xxy4gc6ad.onion) | BTC LN, BTC | | filter.nostr.wine | 🍷 [filter.nostr.wine](https://filter.nostr.wine) proxy relay | ws://winefiltermhqixxzmnzxhrmaufpnfq3rmjcl6ei45iy4aidrngpsyid.onion | [operator](nostr:npub1fyvwkve2gxm3h2d8fvwuvsnkell4jtj4zpae8w4w8zhn2g89t96s0tsfuk) | [Payment URL](http://nostrwinemdptvqukjttinajfeedhf46hfd5bz2aj2q5uwp7zros3nad.onion/add-time) | BTC LN, BTC | | N/A | N/A | ws://pzfw4uteha62iwkzm3lycabk4pbtcr67cg5ymp5i3xwrpt3t24m6tzad.onion:81 | [operator](nostr:nprofile1q9z8wue69uhky6t5vdhkjmnjxejx2dtvddm8sdr5wpmkgmt6wfjxversd3sn2umevyexzenhwp3kzcn2w4cry7rsdy6kgatvvfskgtn0de5k7m30q9z8wue69uhk77r5wfjx2anpwcmrg73kx3ukydmcxeex5ee5de685ut2dpjkgmf4vg6h56n3w4k82emtde585u35xeh8jvn3vfskgtn0de5k7m30qqs93v545xjl0w8865rhw7kte0mkjxst88rk3k3xj53q4zdxm2zu5ectdn2z6) | N/A | N/A | | nostr.fractalized.net | Free relay for fractalized.net | ws://xvgox2zzo7cfxcjrd2llrkthvjs5t7efoalu34s6lmkqhvzvrms6ipyd.onion | [operator](nostr:npub1ky4kxtyg0uxgw8g5p5mmedh8c8s6sqny6zmaaqj44gv4rk0plaus3m4fd2) | N/A | N/A | | nfrelay.app | [nfrelay.app](https://nfrelay.app) aggregator relay (nostr-filter-relay) | ws://nfrelay6saohkmipikquvrn6d64dzxivhmcdcj4d5i7wxis47xwsriyd.onion | [operator](nostr:npub19dn7fq9hlxwjsdtgf28hyakcdmd73cccaf2u7a7vl42echey7ezs2hwja7) | N/A | N/A | relay.nostr.net | Public relay from nostr.net (Same as clearnet) | ws://nostrnetl6yd5whkldj3vqsxyyaq3tkuspy23a3qgx7cdepb4564qgqd.onion | [operator](https://nostr.at/aljaz@nostr.si) | N/A | N/A | | nerostrator | Free to read, pay XMR to relay | ws://nerostrrgb5fhj6dnzhjbgmnkpy2berdlczh6tuh2jsqrjok3j4zoxid.onion | [operator](nostr:npub19j7zhftjfjnep4xa7zxhevschkqdvem9zr26dq4myhu6d62p3gqs3htnca) |[Payment URL](http://nerostrrgb5fhj6dnzhjbgmnkpy2berdlczh6tuh2jsqrjok3j4zoxid.onion) | XMR | | nostr.girino.org | Public relay from nostr.girino.org | ws://gnostr2jnapk72mnagq3cuykfon73temzp77hcbncn4silgt77boruid.onion | [operator](nostr:npub18lav8fkgt8424rxamvk8qq4xuy9n8mltjtgztv2w44hc5tt9vets0hcfsz) | N/A | N/A | | wot.girino.org | WoT relay from wot.girino.org | ws://girwot2koy3kvj6fk7oseoqazp5vwbeawocb3m27jcqtah65f2fkl3yd.onion | [operator](nostr:npub18lav8fkgt8424rxamvk8qq4xuy9n8mltjtgztv2w44hc5tt9vets0hcfsz) | N/A | N/A | | haven.girino.org/{outbox, inbox, chat, private} | Haven smart relay from haven.girino.org | ws://ghaven2hi3qn2riitw7ymaztdpztrvmm337e2pgkacfh3rnscaoxjoad.onion/{outbox, inbox, chat, private} | [operator](nostr:npub18lav8fkgt8424rxamvk8qq4xuy9n8mltjtgztv2w44hc5tt9vets0hcfsz) | N/A | N/A | | relay.nostpy.lol | Free Web of Trust relay (Same as clearnet) | ws://pemgkkqjqjde7y2emc2hpxocexugbixp42o4zymznil6zfegx5nfp4id.onion | [operator](nostr:nprofile1qy08wumn8ghj7mn0wd68yttsw43zuam9d3kx7unyv4ezumn9wshszxrhwden5te0dehhxarj9enx6apwwa5h5tnzd9az7qpqg5pm4gf8hh7skp2rsnw9h2pvkr32sdnuhkcx9yte7qxmrg6v4txqr5amve) |N/A | N/A | | Poster.place Nostr Relay | N/A | ws://dmw5wbawyovz7fcahvguwkw4sknsqsalffwctioeoqkvvy7ygjbcuoad.onion | [operator](nostr:nprofile1qqsr836yylem9deatcu08ekfj8qj9f2aypq8ydt0w8dyng8zp8akjsqpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0ds6xxx6y) | N/A | N/A | | Azzamo Relay | [Azzamo](https://azzamo.net/relays/) Premium Nostr relay. (paid) | ws://q6a7m5qkyonzb5fk5yv4jyu3ar44hqedn7wjopg737lit2ckkhx2nyid.onion | [operator](nostr:npub1jjn20zj6awa6gz73423zxjqszvkzmqqyhwghwctvgy7ncrwlxg8qdavknm) | [Payment URL](https://azzamo.net/pay) | BTC LN | | Azzamo Inbox Relay | [Azzamo](https://azzamo.net/inbox-relay/) Group and Private message relay. (Freemium) | ws://gp5kiwqfw7t2fwb3rfts2aekoph4x7pj5pv65re2y6hzaujsxewanbqd.onion | [operator](nostr:npub1jjn20zj6awa6gz73423zxjqszvkzmqqyhwghwctvgy7ncrwlxg8qdavknm) | [Payment URL](https://azzamo.net/pay) | BTC LN | | Noderunners Relay | The official [Noderunners](https://noderunners.network) Nostr Relay. | ws://35vr3xigzjv2xyzfyif6o2gksmkioppy4rmwag7d4bqmwuccs2u4jaid.onion | [operator](nostr:nprofile1qqsqarzpaw2xv4cc36n092krdsj78yll7n2pfx5rv7fzp4n9jhlsl2spz3mhxue69uhhwmm59esh57npd4hjumn9wsq3gamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwv3sk6atn9e5k7tqd6ns) | [Payment URL](https://noderunners.azzamo.net) | BTC LN | ## Contributing Contributions are encouraged to keep this document alive. Just open a PR and I'll have it tested and merged. The onion URL is the only mandatory column, the rest is just nice-to-have metadata about the relay. Put `N/A` in empty columns. If you want to contribute anonymously, please contact me on [SimpleX](https://simplex.chat/contact#/?v=2&smp=smp%3A%2F%2F0YuTwO05YJWS8rkjn9eLJDjQhFKvIYd8d4xG8X1blIU%3D%40smp8.simplex.im%2FZ_4q0Nv91wCk8Uekyiaas7NSr-nEDir7%23%2F%3Fv%3D1-2%26dh%3DMCowBQYDK2VuAyEAvdSLn5QEwrfKQswQGTzlwtXeLMXbzxErv-zOJU6D0y8%253D%26srv%3Dbeccx4yfxxbvyhqypaavemqurytl6hozr47wfc7uuecacjqdvwpw2xid.onion) or send a DM on nostr using a disposable npub. ### Operator column It is generally preferred to use something that includes a NIP-19 string, either just the string or a url that contains the NIP-19 string in it (e.g. an njump url).

@ 000002de:c05780a7

The newly installed FBI Director Kash Patel was sworn in on a Bhagavad Gita (Hindu holy book) NOT a Christian Bible! Guys, its happening! Christian Nationalism is here. We predicted that Trump would introduce a government ruled by Christians for Christians persecuting people of other faiths. Its just a matter of weeks until we are in full blown Handmaids Tale! Time to get out. Get out while you can. originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/899838

@ 5d4b6c8d:8a1c1ee3

I've been very hopeful that the proposal to replace the IRS, and all of the taxes it collects, with a combination of sales taxes and tariffs, will go through, but just this morning some of the secondary effects of such a change occurred to me. Now, I'm even more hopeful that this happens. # The Obvious Benefits My initial reasons for excitement were the obvious ones: consumption based taxes have better incentives than production based taxes (I know tax incidence muddies the waters, but this is still true) and consumption taxes are more avoidable than the slew of individual and corporate taxes currently in place. # Financial Privacy One second order benefit occurred to me immediately: Without taxes on income/payroll/inheritance/capital gains/etc. the state loses most of its rational for its rampant invasions of our financial privacy. Since most businesses are already subjected to the invasion of their financial privacy (through state and local sales taxes), this is a huge net positive. Not only is this better for its own sake, but all of the monitoring that goes into current financial surveillance is costly. Getting all of those transactions costs out of our financial system will be a huge positive. # No More Benefits Tied to Employment This is what hit me this morning. The reason Americans get so many benefits through their employers is because they're tax exempted. Having our healthcare tied to our employer, and largely decided by them, is a huge distortion in the health care market and it radically reduces competition. Without preferential tax treatment, we would just be paid out that money in our salaries and make our own health care choices. As such, expect the current medical-industrial complex to fight this tax reform tooth and nail. The other element of this that I realized is that retirement accounts will lose the tax penalty, come withdrawal time (obviously depending on which type you have). That'll be a huge boon for many of us, and make up for the impending collapse of Social Security. # What Else? I haven't spent much more time thinking through other implications. What other effects will there be if the current tax regime is replaced with sales taxes and tariffs. originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/899802

@ 55f04590:2d385185

# Loops have been the overarching theme in the last two months of my work. You see, my book project is incredibly exciting, and whenever I have a large project like this—_a beast_—I have a tendency to become somewhat obsessive, (subconsciously) dedicating every waking hour to feeding it. I forced myself to step away from it for a bit, working on other projects while letting the book slumber in the back of my head. When I picked the project back up again, I could feel the different pieces it consists of had clicked into place. It always surprises me to see how taking time _away from a project_ can contribute to seeing things more clearly _on the project_. ## A new website for NoGood During this brief hiatus I found myself digging deeper into the indie & open web. I read articles by people who have been active proponents of an open web—as opposed to the walled gardens we’ve gotten accustomed to tracking us whichever way we surf—and I discovered the concept of tending to a ‘digital garden’. I saw a side of the web I was less exposed to before that aligned perfectly with my values. As a result, I overhauled the NoGood website. This new version of the website is simple, effective, and static: there is no tracking whatsoever, and it makes no requests to external resources. It only uses system fonts, serves optimised images, and because of that it’s blazing fast. I built it using _11ty_, and you can read more about it [in last month’s blogpost](https://nogood.studio/posts/update/new-website/). Within weeks, NoGood got featured on [DeadSimpleSites](http://deadsimplesites.com), a gallery full of similar websites, which is a welcome bit of recognition.  ## Rewarding dialogues The book’s sections ([_Work_, _Process_, _Context_, _Items_](https://nogood.studio/posts/book/announcement)) are set. The _Context_ section is meant to—well, do what it says on the tin: paint a picture of the context in which my own work was created and construct conversations between my work and that which came before it. To do so, I’ll carve out space for articles—published under the _Creative Commons_ or share-alike license—that inspired me along the way. I’ll illustrate each article myself, in black and white. I’ve asked a few people for their permission to publish their articles and have received positive responses from [Cory Doctorow](https://craphound.com/), Jack Dorsey, [Lyn Alden](https://www.lynalden.com/) and [DerGigi](https://dergigi.com/), for which I’m incredibly grateful. Just the ability to have dialogues with these people whose work I’ve admired is a rewarding outcome of me pursuing this project, feeding back into my desire to create a great publication. In order to do right by the _Creative Commons_ license, I’ll make the _Context_ section available on the NoGood website, too. I may even turn it into a printable zine—more on that later. ## Editing and designing the NoGood book I primarily work on the book from my studio space, which I share with two other creatives, [Timo](http://timokuilder.com) and [Daniël](http://daniel.pizza). Daniël designs and builds open-source software for [Ghost](http://ghost.org), writes, and publishes a literary magazine called [_TRANSCRIPT_](http://transcriptmag.store). We share similar values, he knows a thing or two about the open web, and it made perfect sense for us to work together. I’ve hired him to act as an editor for the book, and he now edits my writing (in fact, he edited this update, too!). We’ve had some dialogues about the articles I’m including as well as others I could add, too, and we’ll continue our conversations throughout the design process. Commissioning him to take on this work has been a relief. It freed up precious headspace, and I’ve started designing the first spreads of the book. Some sections already are very clear, while others still need time to crystallise. Fortunately, clarity comes as a result of chipping away at the work ahead, so I keep at it with renewed energy—updates will now follow more regularly.   ## Crowdfunding & production I have a complete picture of the production costs of the book and I’ve ironed out the logistics. I know which printer will be printing it, and my budget estimates were correct. The current number of [pre-orders](https://geyser.fund/project/nogoodartbook) (53) covers roughly 70% of the production costs, which means I can safely produce the NoGood book—it’s going to print this summer! 200 copies will roll off the press, and I’m really looking forward to it. Thank you for reading. More soon, Thomas. --- #### Previous updates [The NoGood art book announcement](https://stacker.news/items/736947) [Update 01 – Humble beginnings](https://stacker.news/items/744898) [Update 02 – Throwback](https://stacker.news/items/762791) #### Pre-order a book The NoGood art book is available [as a pre-order on Geyser](https://geyser.fund/project/nogoodartbook). originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/899798

@ c43d6de3:a6583169

Every Sunday, my brother Alex and I would catch the scent of pie creeping from the oven as we chased Ronnie and Ellis around my grandma’s house. We were good at keeping traditions. Though we eventually outgrew the days of stampeding through Grandma’s living room, her house remained our gathering place. The four of us—Alex, Ronnie, Ellis, and I—would settle on the back porch, the aroma of freshly baked pie still wafting through the air. We’d trade stories about our first crushes, our first kisses, and our dreams for the future, laughing in the warmth of a home that felt eternal. Alex was the first to leave for college. He never really came back. Four years away, then a big-time job across the country. Ronnie and Ellis—the twins—left a few years later. They never truly returned, either. Not the same, at least. A cruel trick of biology had been lurking in the depths of their genes, lying in wait for the right moment to surface. In college, Ronnie was consumed by schizophrenia, while Ellis battled years of depression. They came back home, but they weren’t the same boys I had grown up with. The ones I had once sprinted through hallways with, laughing until our sides hurt, were lost to something none of us could chase down or outrun. By the time I graduated, the scent of pie had vanished forever. My grandmother’s grave was my last stop before I, too, left town. I never went back. People leave in different ways. Some move to another city or another country. Some lose themselves to illness, slipping through our fingers even as they sit beside us. Some find their final resting place. All dearly departed. What makes their departure so bittersweet is the time we once had with them—the memories we carry, the laughter that still echoes in the corners of our hearts. That’s life. That’s what makes it worth it.

@ 5d4b6c8d:8a1c1ee3

# It's *contest-palooza* at ~Stacker_Sports: - We have [cricket](https://stacker.news/items/898849/r/Undisciplined) - We'll likely have more cricket soon! - We have [USA vs the world](https://stacker.news/items/897858/r/Undisciplined) - We have [soccer](https://stacker.news/items/894320/r/Undisciplined) - We have [NBA](https://stacker.news/items/894412/r/Undisciplined) - Coming soon: March Madness, Fantasy Baseball, MLB Survivor Pools, NFL Mock Drafts, and AFL! # In actual sports news, - the NBA is hitting the home stretch. The contenders, pretenders, and tankers are sorting themselves out. - Steph's 56 - Giannis vs Jokic showdown - Brady tampering for Stafford? - NFL combine and other offseason activity - Ovi chasing the Great One - MLB started spring training games - New ball/strike review system # Degenerate Corner - [Predyx Super Bowl market](https://beta.predyx.com/market/super-bowl-winner-2026-1740263192) - I'm killing it on Ember. What's my secret? Plus, whatever stackers drop in the comments. originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/899748

@ a012dc82:6458a70d

In the dynamic and often unpredictable world of cryptocurrency, the opinions and predictions of financial pundits like Jim Cramer, the host of CNBC's "Mad Money," can significantly sway market sentiments and investor behavior. Cramer, known for his incisive and sometimes controversial market insights, has recently turned his attention to Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency. His latest comments suggest a bearish outlook on Bitcoin, which has sparked intense discussions and speculations within the crypto community. This development is particularly noteworthy given Cramer's influence and the weight his opinions often carry in financial circles. His views on Bitcoin are not just idle chatter; they have the potential to shape market trends and influence investment strategies. **Table of Contents** - Cramer's Changing Stance on Bitcoin - Historical Perspective - The "Reverse Cramer Effect" - Market Reactions and Speculations - Analyzing Past Trends - The Role of Bitcoin ETFs - Implications for Investors - Navigating Market Sentiments - The Future of Bitcoin - Conclusion - FAQs **Cramer's Changing Stance on Bitcoin** **Historical Perspective** Jim Cramer's relationship with Bitcoin has been a rollercoaster of changing opinions and stances. Initially skeptical, Cramer warmed up to Bitcoin, acknowledging its potential as an investment asset. However, his recent bearish comments mark a significant shift from his earlier views. This change is intriguing, as it comes at a time when Bitcoin has been showing signs of recovery and gaining mainstream acceptance. Cramer's influence in the financial world means that his opinions are closely monitored and can lead to tangible market reactions. His latest stance, suggesting that Bitcoin is "topping out," has therefore raised eyebrows and led to debates about the future direction of the cryptocurrency. **The "Reverse Cramer Effect"** The phenomenon known as the "reverse Cramer effect" has become a topic of interest among investors and market analysts. This effect, where the market tends to move in the opposite direction of Cramer's advice, has been observed on multiple occasions. For example, after Cramer advised investors to sell Bitcoin in April 2023, the cryptocurrency's price surged, defying his predictions. This pattern has led some investors to view Cramer's predictions as a contrarian indicator. The consistency of this effect raises questions about market psychology and the influence of prominent financial figures on investor behavior. It also underscores the complexity and unpredictability of the cryptocurrency market, where sentiment can often drive price movements more than fundamentals. **Market Reactions and Speculations** **Analyzing Past Trends** The market's reaction to Cramer's comments is not just a matter of idle speculation; it has real implications for investors and traders. The "reverse Cramer effect" has been noted not just in the case of Bitcoin but also in other financial markets. This phenomenon suggests a deeper, perhaps psychological, aspect of market behavior where investors might be inclined to react contrarily to prominent predictions. The recent bearish stance by Cramer on Bitcoin thus becomes a focal point for market watchers. If history is any guide, this could very well be an inadvertent signal for a bullish phase for Bitcoin. **The Role of Bitcoin ETFs** The potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC is a significant development in the cryptocurrency world. These ETFs would provide a more accessible and regulated avenue for investing in Bitcoin, potentially attracting a new class of investors. The approval of these ETFs could be a game-changer for Bitcoin's price, as it would represent a major step towards mainstream acceptance and institutional investment. The timing of Cramer's comments in the context of these developments adds an interesting dimension to market speculations. If the SEC does approve Bitcoin ETFs, and the "reverse Cramer effect" holds true, we could witness a substantial bull run in Bitcoin's price. **Implications for Investors** **Navigating Market Sentiments** For investors, the "reverse Cramer effect" and the potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs present a complex scenario. While it's tempting to base investment decisions on the predictions of market experts, the unpredictable nature of cryptocurrencies requires a more nuanced approach. Investors need to consider a range of factors, including market trends, technological developments, regulatory changes, and broader economic indicators. The case of Jim Cramer's shifting stance on Bitcoin highlights the importance of not relying solely on expert opinions but also conducting independent research and analysis. **The Future of Bitcoin** The future of Bitcoin, as suggested by the recent developments and Cramer's comments, appears to be at a potential turning point. While the possibility of a bull market looms, it's important to remember the inherent volatility and risks associated with cryptocurrencies. The market's response to Cramer's comments, coupled with the potential regulatory advancements like Bitcoin ETFs, could indeed set the stage for significant price movements. However, investors should remain cautious and diversified in their approach, keeping in mind that the cryptocurrency market is still maturing and subject to rapid changes. **Conclusion** Jim Cramer's recent bearish comments on Bitcoin have stirred up a wave of discussions and speculations about the future of this leading cryptocurrency. While his track record suggests the possibility of an upcoming bull market, the volatile and unpredictable nature of the crypto world warrants a cautious approach. Investors should weigh Cramer's opinions alongside other market indicators and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions. As the cryptocurrency landscape continues to evolve, staying informed, adaptable, and prudent remains crucial for navigating the market's ebbs and flows. **FAQs** **Who is Jim Cramer?** Jim Cramer is a well-known financial expert and the host of CNBC's "Mad Money." He is recognized for his bold market predictions and has a significant influence in the financial world. **What is the "Reverse Cramer Effect"?** The "Reverse Cramer Effect" refers to a phenomenon where the market tends to move in the opposite direction of Jim Cramer's predictions. This has been observed particularly in the cryptocurrency market with Bitcoin. **Why are Jim Cramer's comments on Bitcoin important?** Cramer's comments are closely followed by investors and can influence market trends. His recent bearish stance on Bitcoin has sparked discussions and speculations about a potential bull market due to the "Reverse Cramer Effect." **What impact could Bitcoin ETFs have on the market?** The approval of Bitcoin ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) by the SEC could significantly boost Bitcoin's price by providing a regulated and accessible investment avenue, potentially attracting more mainstream and institutional investors. **Should investors base their decisions solely on Jim Cramer's predictions?** While Cramer's opinions are influential, investors are advised to conduct their own research and consider a range of factors before making investment decisions, due to the unpredictable nature of the cryptocurrency market. **That's all for today** **If you want more, be sure to follow us on:** **NOSTR: croxroad@getalby.com** **X: [@croxroadnewsco](https://x.com/croxroadnewsco)** **Instagram: [@croxroadnews.co/](https://www.instagram.com/croxroadnews.co/)** **Youtube: [@thebitcoinlibertarian](https://www.youtube.com/@thebitcoinlibertarian)** **Store: https://croxroad.store** **Subscribe to CROX ROAD Bitcoin Only Daily Newsletter** **https://www.croxroad.co/subscribe** **Get Orange Pill App And Connect With Bitcoiners In Your Area. Stack Friends Who Stack Sats link: https://signup.theorangepillapp.com/opa/croxroad** **Buy Bitcoin Books At Konsensus Network Store. 10% Discount With Code “21croxroad” link: https://bitcoinbook.shop?ref=21croxroad** ***DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.***

@ 2dd9250b:6e928072

Vi recentemente um post onde a pessoa diz que aquele final do filme O Doutrinador (2019) não faz sentido porque mesmo se explodir o Palácio dos Três Poderes, não acaba a corrupção no Brasil. Olha a mentalidade desse pessoal! São analfabetos mesmo. Progressistas são pessoas que não sabem ler e não conseguem interpretar nada, não possuem essa capacidade de interpretar o que está lendo porque o final de Doutrinador não tem a ver com isso, tem a ver com a relação entre Herói e a sua Cidade. Nas histórias em quadrinhos sempre existe uma ligação entre a cidade e o Super-Herói, é por isso que Gotham City acaba criando o Batman, isso é mostrado em The Batman e em Batman: Cavaleiro das Trevas, quando aquele garoto no final, diz para o Batman não fugir, porque ele queria ver o Batman de novo. E o Comissário Gordon diz que o "Batman é o que a cidade de Gotham precisa." Em Batman: Cavaleiro das Trevas Ressurge você vê justamente a cidade de Gotham sendo tomada pela corrupção e pela ideologia do Bane. A Cidade vai definhando em imoralidade e o Bruce olha da prisão naquele poço a cidade sendo destruída e decide que o Batman precisa voltar porque se Gotham for destruída, o Batman é destruído junto e é por isso que ele consegue sair daquele poço e voltar para salvar Gotham. Isso também é mostrado em Demolidor. Na série Demolidor o Matt Murdock sempre está falando que ele precisa defender a cidade Cozinha do Inferno; que o Fisk não vai dominar a cidade e fazer o que ele quer. Inclusive na terceira temporada isso fica mais evidente na luta final na mansão do Fisk, onde Matt fala para ele que agora a cidade toda vai saber o que ele fez; a cidade vai ver o mal que ele é para Hell's Kitchen, porque a gente sabe que o Fisk fez de tudo para a imagem do Demolidor entrar e descrédito perante os cidadãos, então o que acontece no final ali do Doutrinador não significa que ele está acabando com a corrupção quando explode o Congresso, ele está praticamente interrompendo o ciclo do sistema, ele está colocando uma falha na engrenagem do sistema. Quando você ouve o nome "Brasília" você pensa na corrupção dos políticos, onde a farra acontece, onde os políticos moram, onde eles desviam dinheiro arrecadado dos impostos que vai tudo para Brasília, então quando você ouve falarem de Brasília, você sempre pensa que o pessoal que mora lá, mora junto com tudo de podre que acontece no Brasil. Então quando ele explode tudo ali, ele está basicamente destruindo o mecanismo que suja Brasília. Ele está fazendo isso naquela cidade. Porque o símbolo da cidade é justamente esse, a farsa de que naquele lugar o povo será ouvido e a justiça será feita. Ele está destruindo a ideologia de que o Estado nos protege, nos dá segurança, saúde e educação. Porque na verdade o Estado só existe para privilegiar os políticos, funcionários públicos de auto escalão, suas famílias e amigos. Enquanto que o povo sofre para sustentar a elite política. O protagonista Miguel entendeu isso quando a filha dele morreu na fila do SUS.

@ d360efec:14907b5f

**ภาพรวมการวิเคราะห์ Bitcoin (BTC)** จากการตรวจสอบกราฟและอินดิเคเตอร์ใน Timeframe 15 นาที, 4 ชั่วโมง, และรายวัน (Day) พบว่า Bitcoin มีความผันผวนและมีแนวโน้มการเปลี่ยนแปลงที่น่าสนใจในแต่ละ Timeframe ดังรายละเอียดต่อไปนี้ค่ะ **อินดิเคเตอร์ที่ใช้ในการวิเคราะห์** * **EMA (Exponential Moving Average):** * **EMA 50 (สีเหลือง):** แสดงแนวโน้มระยะสั้นของราคา * **EMA 200 (สีขาว):** แสดงแนวโน้มระยะยาวของราคา * **SMC (Smart Money Concepts):** แนวคิดการเทรดที่เน้นการวิเคราะห์พฤติกรรมของ "Smart Money" หรือผู้เล่นรายใหญ่ในตลาด * **ICT (Inner Circle Trader) Buyside & Sellside Liquidity:** อินดิเคเตอร์ที่ระบุตำแหน่งสภาพคล่องฝั่งซื้อและฝั่งขาย ซึ่งเป็นเป้าหมายราคาที่น่าสนใจ * **Money Flow:** อินดิเคเตอร์ที่แสดงทิศทางการไหลเข้าออกของเงินทุนในสินทรัพย์ * **Trend Strength (🌟Introducing the Trend and Strength Signals indicator by AlgoAlpha!):** อินดิเคเตอร์ที่ช่วยระบุแนวโน้มและความแข็งแกร่งของตลาด มีลักษณะเป็นเมฆและสัญญาณซื้อขาย **วิเคราะห์แนวโน้มและกลยุทธ์การเทรด** **1. Timeframe 15 นาที (TF 15m)**  * **แนวโน้ม:** ใน TF 15 นาที ราคา BTC มีความผันผวนในกรอบแคบ EMA 50 ตัดกับ EMA 200 บ่งบอกถึงความไม่แน่นอนของแนวโน้มในระยะสั้น * **สัญญาณอินดิเคเตอร์:** * **Trend Strength:** เกิดสัญญาณซื้อขาย (Buy/Sell Signal) แต่เมฆ (Cloud) ยังไม่ชัดเจน บ่งบอกถึงความแข็งแกร่งของแนวโน้มยังไม่เด่นชัด * **Money Flow:** มีการสลับการไหลเข้าออกของเงินทุน สะท้อนถึงความไม่แน่นอนในระยะสั้น * **Buyside & Sellside Liquidity:** อินดิเคเตอร์นี้จะช่วยระบุแนวรับแนวต้านใน TF สั้นๆ เพื่อใช้ในการพิจารณาจุดเข้าออก * **Chart Pattern:** พิจารณารูปแบบ Chart Pattern ใน TF 15 นาที เช่น รูปแบบสามเหลี่ยม (Triangle) หรือรูปแบบธง (Flag) เพื่อหารูปแบบราคาที่อาจเกิดขึ้น * **กลยุทธ์ Day Trade (การเทรดรายวัน):** * **กลยุทธ์:** เน้นการเทรดในกรอบ Sideway โดยใช้แนวรับแนวต้านที่ระบุจาก Buyside & Sellside Liquidity และสัญญาณจาก Trend Strength ประกอบการตัดสินใจ * **SMC Setup:** มองหา SMC Setup ใน TF 15 นาที เช่น Order Block หรือ Fair Value Gap บริเวณแนวรับแนวต้าน เพื่อหาจังหวะเข้าเทรดตามแนวโน้มระยะสั้น * **สิ่งที่ต้องระวัง:** ความผันผวนสูงใน TF 15 นาที อาจทำให้เกิดสัญญาณหลอก ควรใช้ Stop Loss ที่เหมาะสม และบริหารความเสี่ยงอย่างเคร่งครัด **2. Timeframe 4 ชั่วโมง (TF 4H)**  * **แนวโน้ม:** ใน TF 4 ชั่วโมง ราคา BTC มีแนวโน้มเป็นขาขึ้น EMA 50 อยู่เหนือ EMA 200 บ่งบอกถึงแนวโน้มขาขึ้นในระยะกลาง * **สัญญาณอินดิเคเตอร์:** * **Trend Strength:** เกิดเมฆสีเขียว (Green Cloud) และสัญญาณซื้อ (Buy Signal) บ่งบอกถึงแนวโน้มขาขึ้นที่แข็งแกร่ง * **Money Flow:** เงินทุนไหลเข้าต่อเนื่อง สนับสนุนแนวโน้มขาขึ้น * **Buyside & Sellside Liquidity:** อินดิเคเตอร์นี้จะช่วยระบุแนวรับแนวต้านที่สำคัญใน TF 4 ชั่วโมง เพื่อใช้ในการวางแผนการเทรดระยะกลาง * **Chart Pattern:** พิจารณารูปแบบ Chart Pattern ใน TF 4 ชั่วโมง เช่น รูปแบบ Cup and Handle หรือรูปแบบ Ascending Triangle เพื่อยืนยันแนวโน้มขาขึ้น * **กลยุทธ์ Day Trade (การเทรดรายวัน) / Swing Trade (การเทรดระยะกลาง):** * **กลยุทธ์:** เน้นการเทรดตามแนวโน้มขาขึ้น โดยใช้ EMA 50 และแนวรับแนวต้านจาก Buyside & Sellside Liquidity เป็นจุดอ้างอิงในการเข้าเทรด * **SMC Setup:** มองหา SMC Setup ใน TF 4 ชั่วโมง เช่น Break of Structure (BOS) หรือ Change of Character (CHOCH) เพื่อหาจังหวะเข้าเทรดตามแนวโน้มขาขึ้น * **สิ่งที่ต้องระวัง:** การพักตัวของราคาในแนวโน้มขาขึ้น อาจทำให้เกิดการย่อตัวระยะสั้น ควรพิจารณาแนวรับที่แข็งแกร่ง และตั้ง Stop Loss เพื่อป้องกันความเสี่ยง **3. Timeframe รายวัน (TF Day)**  * **แนวโน้ม:** ใน TF รายวัน ราคา BTC ยังคงอยู่ในแนวโน้มขาขึ้นระยะยาว EMA 50 อยู่เหนือ EMA 200 อย่างชัดเจน * **สัญญาณอินดิเคเตอร์:** * **Trend Strength:** เกิดเมฆสีเขียวขนาดใหญ่ (Large Green Cloud) และสัญญาณซื้อต่อเนื่อง (Continuous Buy Signal) บ่งบอกถึงแนวโน้มขาขึ้นระยะยาวที่แข็งแกร่งมาก * **Money Flow:** เงินทุนไหลเข้าอย่างต่อเนื่องและแข็งแกร่ง สนับสนุนแนวโน้มขาขึ้นระยะยาว * **Buyside & Sellside Liquidity:** อินดิเคเตอร์นี้จะช่วยระบุแนวรับแนวต้านที่สำคัญใน TF รายวัน เพื่อใช้ในการวางแผนการลงทุนระยะยาว * **Chart Pattern:** พิจารณารูปแบบ Chart Pattern ใน TF รายวัน เช่น รูปแบบ Bullish Flag หรือรูปแบบ Wedge เพื่อยืนยันแนวโน้มขาขึ้นระยะยาว * **กลยุทธ์ Day Trade (การเทรดรายวัน) / Swing Trade (การเทรดระยะกลาง) / Long-Term Investment (การลงทุนระยะยาว):** * **กลยุทธ์:** เน้นการลงทุนระยะยาวตามแนวโน้มขาขึ้น โดยพิจารณาจังหวะเข้าซื้อเมื่อราคาย่อตัวลงมาบริเวณแนวรับสำคัญใน TF รายวัน * **SMC Setup:** มองหา SMC Setup ใน TF รายวัน เช่น Institutional Order Flow เพื่อยืนยันแนวโน้มขาขึ้นระยะยาว * **สิ่งที่ต้องระวัง:** ความเสี่ยงจากปัจจัยภายนอกที่อาจกระทบตลาด Cryptocurrency ในระยะยาว ควรติดตามข่าวสารและสถานการณ์ตลาดอย่างใกล้ชิด และกระจายความเสี่ยงในการลงทุน **สรุป** จากการวิเคราะห์ BTC ใน 3 Timeframe ด้วยอินดิเคเตอร์และ Chart Pattern พบว่า BTC ยังคงมีแนวโน้มขาขึ้นในระยะกลางและระยะยาว อย่างไรก็ตาม ในระยะสั้น TF 15 นาที ยังมีความผันผวนและไม่แน่นอน กลยุทธ์การเทรดที่เหมาะสมจะแตกต่างกันไปตาม Timeframe และเป้าหมายการเทรดของแต่ละบุคคล ควรพิจารณาความเสี่ยงและบริหารจัดการเงินทุนอย่างเหมาะสม **คำแนะนำเพิ่มเติม** * **ศึกษาเพิ่มเติม:** ควรศึกษาเพิ่มเติมเกี่ยวกับ SMC, ICT, และ Trend Strength Indicator เพื่อให้เข้าใจหลักการทำงานและนำไปประยุกต์ใช้ในการเทรดได้อย่างมีประสิทธิภาพ * **ทดลองบนบัญชี Demo:** ทดลองกลยุทธ์ต่างๆ บนบัญชี Demo ก่อนนำไปใช้จริง เพื่อทดสอบความเข้าใจและปรับปรุงกลยุทธ์ให้เหมาะสมกับตนเอง * **ติดตามข่าวสาร:** ติดตามข่าวสารและสถานการณ์ตลาด Cryptocurrency อย่างสม่ำเสมอ เพื่อประกอบการตัดสินใจในการเทรดและการลงทุน **Disclaimer (ข้อจำกัดความรับผิดชอบ):** การวิเคราะห์นี้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อให้ข้อมูลเท่านั้น และเป็นความคิดเห็นส่วนบุคคล ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำทางการเงิน การลงทุนใน Cryptocurrency มีความเสี่ยงสูง นักลงทุนควรศึกษาข้อมูลด้วยตนเองและใช้ความระมัดระวังก่อนตัดสินใจลงทุน

@ d360efec:14907b5f

$OKX:BTCUSDT.P From checking the charts and indicators in 15-minute, 4-hour, and daily timeframes, it is found that Bitcoin is volatile and has interesting trend changes in each timeframe, as detailed below: **Trend Analysis and Trading Strategies** **1. 15-Minute Timeframe (TF 15m)**  * **Trend:** In the 15-minute TF, the BTC price is fluctuating in a narrow range. EMA 50 crossing with EMA 200 indicates short-term trend uncertainty. * **Indicator Signals:** * **Trend Strength:** Buy/Sell signals occur, but the cloud is not yet clear, indicating that the trend strength is not yet prominent. * **Money Flow:** There is an alternating inflow and outflow of funds, reflecting short-term uncertainty. * **Buyside & Sellside Liquidity:** This indicator helps identify support and resistance levels in short TFs to consider entry and exit points. * **Chart Pattern:** Consider Chart Patterns in the 15-minute TF, such as Triangle or Flag patterns, to find possible price patterns. * **Day Trade Strategy:** * **Strategy:** Focus on trading in a Sideway range, using support and resistance levels identified by Buyside & Sellside Liquidity and signals from Trend Strength to make decisions. * **SMC Setup:** Look for SMC Setups in the 15-minute TF, such as Order Blocks or Fair Value Gaps around support and resistance areas, to find short-term trend trading opportunities. * **Things to watch out for:** High volatility in the 15-minute TF may cause false signals. Appropriate Stop Loss should be used and risk should be managed strictly. **2. 4-Hour Timeframe (TF 4H)**  * **Trend:** In the 4-hour TF, the BTC price is trending upwards. EMA 50 is above EMA 200, indicating a medium-term uptrend. * **Indicator Signals:** * **Trend Strength:** A Green Cloud and Buy Signal occur, indicating a strong uptrend. * **Money Flow:** Funds continue to flow in, supporting the uptrend. * **Buyside & Sellside Liquidity:** This indicator helps identify important support and resistance levels in the 4-hour TF for medium-term trading planning. * **Chart Pattern:** Consider Chart Patterns in the 4-hour TF, such as Cup and Handle or Ascending Triangle patterns, to confirm the uptrend. * **Day Trade / Swing Trade Strategy:** * **Strategy:** Focus on trading along the uptrend, using EMA 50 and support and resistance levels from Buyside & Sellside Liquidity as reference points for entering trades. * **SMC Setup:** Look for SMC Setups in the 4-hour TF, such as Break of Structure (BOS) or Change of Character (CHOCH), to find trading opportunities along the uptrend. * **Things to watch out for:** Price consolidation in an uptrend may cause short-term pullbacks. Strong support levels should be considered, and Stop Loss should be set to prevent risk. **3. Daily Timeframe (TF Day)**  * **Trend:** In the Daily TF, the BTC price is still in a long-term uptrend. EMA 50 is clearly above EMA 200. * **Indicator Signals:** * **Trend Strength:** A Large Green Cloud and Continuous Buy Signal occur, indicating a very strong long-term uptrend. * **Money Flow:** Funds are flowing in continuously and strongly, supporting the long-term uptrend. * **Buyside & Sellside Liquidity:** This indicator helps identify important support and resistance levels in the Daily TF for long-term investment planning. * **Chart Pattern:** Consider Chart Patterns in the Daily TF, such as Bullish Flag or Wedge patterns, to confirm the long-term uptrend. * **Day Trade / Swing Trade / Long-Term Investment Strategy:** * **Strategy:** Focus on long-term investment along the uptrend, considering buying opportunities when the price pulls back to important support levels in the Daily TF. * **SMC Setup:** Look for SMC Setups in the Daily TF, such as Institutional Order Flow, to confirm the long-term uptrend. * **Things to watch out for:** Risks from external factors that may affect the cryptocurrency market in the long term. Market news and situations should be closely monitored, and investment risk should be diversified. **Summary** From analyzing BTC in 3 Timeframes with indicators and Chart Patterns, it is found that BTC still has an uptrend in the medium and long term. However, in the short term, the 15-minute TF is still volatile and uncertain. Appropriate trading strategies will vary depending on the timeframe and individual trading goals. Risk should be considered and capital should be managed appropriately. **Additional Recommendations** * **Further Study:** Further study on SMC, ICT, and Trend Strength Indicator should be done to understand the working principles and apply them effectively in trading. * **Experiment on Demo Account:** Experiment with various strategies on a Demo account before using them in real trading to test understanding and improve strategies to suit oneself. * **Follow News:** Follow cryptocurrency market news and situations regularly to inform trading and investment decisions. **Disclaimer:** This analysis is for informational purposes only and represents a personal opinion. It is not financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves significant risk. Investors should conduct their own research and exercise due diligence before making any investment decisions.