@ 5d4b6c8d:8a1c1ee3

Following our updated [February predictions](https://stacker.news/items/894412/r/Undisciplined), here's how stackers are predicting the NBA season will play out: - Champ - Celtics - MVP - SGA - All NBA 1st Team - Jokic, Giannis, Ant, SGA, Brunson ----- # Full results ## Champion - Celtics 5/15 - Thunder 2/15 - Pacers 2/15 - Nuggets 1/15 - Timberwolves 1/15 - Lakers 1/15 - Grizzlies 1/15 - Cavaliers 1/15 - Knicks 1/15 ## MVP - SGA 8/15 - Luka 3/15 - Giannis 2/15 - Jokic 1/15 - Lebron 1/15 ## All NBA 1st Team - Jokic 14/15 - Giannis 14/15 - SGA 13/15 - Ant 8/15 - Brunson 7/15 - Luka 7/15 - Tatum 5/15 - KAT 4/15 - Mitchell 1/15 - Wemby 1/15 - Steph 1/15 originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/901107

@ 6260f29f:2ee2fcd4

<div style="position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;height:0;overflow:hidden;max-width:100%;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/htak8D2tv_M?enablejsapi=1" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;border:0;" allowfullscreen></iframe></div> # PlebDevs ⚡️ A one-of-a-kind developer education, content, and community platform built on Nostr and fully Lightning integrated. <br />[https://plebdevs.com](https://plebdevs.com) ## Overview PlebDevs is an open-source platform that combines educational content, community interaction, and Bitcoin/Lightning integration. The platform publishes content to Nostr and actively pulls from Nostr relays, creating a distributed, interoperable trail of Documents, Videos, and Courses. ## Technical Implementation ### Nostr Integration - **Content Distribution**: Implements NIP-23 for rich multimedia content embedding - **Content Encryption**: Paid content bodies are encrypted while maintaining metadata visibility - **Authentication**: - Multi-method signup (NIP-07, Email, GitHub, Anonymous) - Ephemeral keypair generation for non-Nostr users - Account linking and recovery system - **Lists & Courses**: NIP-51 implementation for structured content organization - **Monetization**: NIP-99 for digital content sales - **Automated Subscriptions**: NIP-47 (Nostr Wallet Connect) for recurring payments - **Badge System**: NIP-58 for automated achievement rewards - **Identity**: NIP-05 for custom platform identities - **Additional NIPs**: Implements NIP-01, NIP-19, NIP-39, NIP-57 ### Platform Architecture - **Content Management**: - Draft system with preview capabilities - Parameterized replaceable events - Multi-format support (Markdown, Video, Mixed Media) - Course builder with drag-and-drop ordering - **User Management**: - Profile synchronization with Nostr - Activity tracking and progress monitoring - Custom relay configuration - Wallet connection management - **Admin Features**: - Protected admin routes based on pubkey configuration - Content creation and management interface - Draft/publish workflow - Course assembly tools

@ 4f1c14e5:b8546d05

Training ideologies often lead to tribalism when they shouldn’t. As with all things, there are no solutions - only tradeoffs. The reality is that free weights and machines are both tools. The one you should use is determined by your objective. In either case, creating tension within the target muscle group is always the objective when it comes to building muscle. It's this mechanical tension that's responsible for initiating the growth process by destroying already formed muscle cells. Both machines and free weights accomplish this objective. As a general rule, the more stable you are during an exercise, the more tension you can create within the target muscle. The difference is simply that machines offer more stability. That’s neither better nor worse, it just is. Stability within exercises is a spectrum. We create stability by bracing against things. The more points of contact and the more of your body that braces against things, the more stability you will have. Because of gravity, we are forced to have at least one point of contact braced against something at all times. Typically, it's the floor. A pistol squat offers a very low amount of stability because of the lack of bracing. In this example, only one foot is braced against the floor. Adding a second foot to the ground and doing a body weight squat enhances stability. Holding onto a bar or a bench in front of you while squatting now adds another layer of stability. A hack squat is a machine where both feet are planted on a platform and the user rests the posterior portion of their entire upper body - from their lower back to their head - against a pad. This machine has a fixed movement pattern which further reduces any instability. These are all examples of different exercises that follow the same movement pattern, yet offer varying degrees of stability. Which should beginners use? Again, both is the best approach. But what would happen if you limited yourself to mostly one or the other? Predominantly using machines as a beginner will allow you to forego the lack of development in your ability to stabilize yourself. The machine stabilizes your body for you in a way that beginners simply aren’t able to at first. You are braced by a seat, a back pad/chest pad and maybe a handle or two as well. In addition to this bracing, the movement path is already carved out for you. You simply position yourself appropriately and push (or pull), and the machine does the rest. This allows you to focus more on creating tension in the target muscle as well as learning to train to failure safely. Predominantly using free weights as a beginner will force you to develop stability from the start. There are no pads anywhere to brace your body against. Your body must learn to brace against itself. **You** become the machine. This may limit your ability to create maximum tension in the target muscles at first, but the stability you create this way will translate to systemic muscular development. You'll become thicker everywhere because your body works as a system to stabilize itself against gravity. The stability built through free weight movements will transfer over to machines. If you can stabilize yourself with just a barbell, the stability you can create while braced in a machine will translate to even greater tension. You’ll be stabilized by your body AND the machine. Since it makes the most sense to do both, the only thing left is understanding which circumstances are better suited for machines vs free weights. Since fatigue is something we all contend with during a workout, it makes sense to program the least stabilized, most demanding movements earlier in the workout and the most stabilized, least demanding movements later in the session. This not only allows you to create the most tension possible throughout the workout, but is also the safest approach. It would be unwise to schedule barbell front squats at the end of a workout when fatigue is high and energy is low. Not only will you fail to generate maximum tension, but you’ll put yourself at higher risk of injury. TLDR; use both, but do free weight stuff first.

@ 6260f29f:2ee2fcd4

<div style="position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;height:0;overflow:hidden;max-width:100%;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/F-px_Eqr16E?enablejsapi=1" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;border:0;" allowfullscreen></iframe></div> # PlebDevs ⚡️ A one-of-a-kind developer education, content, and community platform built on Nostr and fully Lightning integrated. <br />[https://plebdevs.com](https://plebdevs.com) ## Overview PlebDevs is an open-source platform that combines educational content, community interaction, and Bitcoin/Lightning integration. The platform publishes content to Nostr and actively pulls from Nostr relays, creating a distributed, interoperable trail of Documents, Videos, and Courses. ## Technical Implementation ### Nostr Integration - **Content Distribution**: Implements NIP-23 for rich multimedia content embedding - **Content Encryption**: Paid content bodies are encrypted while maintaining metadata visibility - **Authentication**: - Multi-method signup (NIP-07, Email, GitHub, Anonymous) - Ephemeral keypair generation for non-Nostr users - Account linking and recovery system - **Lists & Courses**: NIP-51 implementation for structured content organization - **Monetization**: NIP-99 for digital content sales - **Automated Subscriptions**: NIP-47 (Nostr Wallet Connect) for recurring payments - **Badge System**: NIP-58 for automated achievement rewards - **Identity**: NIP-05 for custom platform identities - **Additional NIPs**: Implements NIP-01, NIP-19, NIP-39, NIP-57 ### Platform Architecture - **Content Management**: - Draft system with preview capabilities - Parameterized replaceable events - Multi-format support (Markdown, Video, Mixed Media) - Course builder with drag-and-drop ordering - **User Management**: - Profile synchronization with Nostr - Activity tracking and progress monitoring - Custom relay configuration - Wallet connection management - **Admin Features**: - Protected admin routes based on pubkey configuration - Content creation and management interface - Draft/publish workflow - Course assembly tools

@ 6260f29f:2ee2fcd4

<div style="position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;height:0;overflow:hidden;max-width:100%;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/yOKs5L18YcI?enablejsapi=1" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;border:0;" allowfullscreen></iframe></div>

@ f33c8a96:5ec6f741

<div style="position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;height:0;overflow:hidden;max-width:100%;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tGVxP4RgyI4?enablejsapi=1" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;border:0;" allowfullscreen></iframe></div>

@ f33c8a96:5ec6f741

<div style="position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;height:0;overflow:hidden;max-width:100%;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7dsR7um-DxA?enablejsapi=1" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;border:0;" allowfullscreen></iframe></div>

@ f33c8a96:5ec6f741

<div style="position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;height:0;overflow:hidden;max-width:100%;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/QY6euaT_G_E?enablejsapi=1" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;border:0;" allowfullscreen></iframe></div>

@ 5d4b6c8d:8a1c1ee3

Alright, Fast February has come to an end. It was more impactful than I anticipated, considering daily intermittent dry fasting had been part of my routine for a long time. I had definitely let the practice slip to the point where I probably wasn't regularly entering ketosis. Now, my food cravings are substantially reduced and it's quite easy for me to confine my eating to a smaller window. Even with the fiscal fast being over, I just bought some vitamins and coconut milk (no cravings for junk food or snacks). I would have gotten some fruit, too, but it didn't look great. I did notice craving more juicy foods this month, as my dry fasts got longer. Eating more fruit will probably be an adjustment I make going forward. If you have any practices that have been on autopilot, I recommend occasionally putting some focus on them to make sure they're still doing what you thought they were. originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/901017

@ 378562cd:a6fc6773

You're in the right place if you've feel like you have never known God but feel drawn to Him. The Bible is God’s Word, His way of speaking to us, and it holds the truth about who He is, who we are, and how we can have a relationship with Him. Here’s a *simple guide* to getting started: **Step 1: Begin with Jesus** The best place to start is with Jesus. He is the heart of the Bible’s message; we can know God through Him. Start by reading the Gospel of John in the New Testament. It clearly shows who Jesus is, His love for us, and why He came to save us. **Step 2: Talk to God as You Read** Reading the Bible isn’t just about gathering knowledge and meeting God. Ask Him to help you understand. A simple prayer like, "God, if You are real, show me the truth. Help me know You" is enough. **Step 3: Understand the Main Message** The Bible tells one big story: God created us (Genesis 1:1) Sin separated us from God (Romans 3:23) Jesus came to save us (John 3:16) We can be forgiven and have eternal life through Him (Romans 10:9) **Step 4: Accepting Jesus into Your Heart** If you believe that Jesus is the Son of God, that He died for your sins, and that He rose again, you can ask Him to forgive you and come into your life. You don’t need fancy words—just a sincere heart. You can pray something like this: "Jesus, I believe You are the Son of God. I believe You died for my sins and rose again. I ask You to forgive me, change me, and come into my life. I want to follow You. Amen." **Step 5: Keep Going!** Read a little each day. Start with John, then move to Matthew, Mark, and Luke. Find a Bible-believing church or group to help you grow. Pray daily — talk to God like you would a friend. Trust that God will guide you as you seek Him. If you’ve taken these steps, you’ve begun the greatest journey of your life—walking with Jesus. Keep seeking, keep learning, and know that God loves you deeply. 💙 I may not know you, and you may not know me, but this guide can be a lifeline if you carry burdens— drama, heartache, struggles, pains or whatever. If you commit to following the steps of this guide and make time to read your Bible daily, you’ll find wisdom, peace, and the strength to face whatever life throws your way.

@ bbb5dda0:f09e2747

**A couple weeks with a little bit of everything, TollGate marketing, app stability improvements, and some personal matters that needed my attention. Let's get into it:** ## TollGate App For starters, we worked hard to get an early version of the [TollGate](https://tollgate.me) website live. What do we want to communicate about the project, and to whom. We've identified three 'types' of visitor, each requiring its own 'customer journey' through the website. First there's the end-user, someone that just wants access to tollgate, but doesn't care about any of the technichalities. We try to guide those people to downloading our app as soon as possible. Currently that means downloading it straight from the website as an APK file. But we want to quickly move on to publishing it to the [ZapStore](https://zapstore.dev). The past couple weeks I put some efforts into getting the app stable. It was hard to identify what was causing the seemingly random crashes and full reloads (of the web content). After getting some outside help we've identified that we were trying to interact with the android API's on the main thread. Which is bad practice. I first couldn't figure out how to make a web request without having to spawn a seperate thread in the kotlin code, that then we'd have to create some kind of system to bubble up the callback method's result. I then found there's a proper [Tauri (the framework) way](https://tauri.app/develop/plugins/develop-mobile/) of doing this using Kotlin Coroutines, which I wasn't familliar with. But it just executes the entire Tauri 'command' (function call) on a background thread. Problem solved. I haven't had any full app crashes since. Which left me with the random page refreshes, the thing that was behind the demo-effect at Sat's and Facts. I noticed it happened around the moments I would go to settings to hit the 'sign in' button to dismiss the captive portal. That's where I had looked before, but I needed to zoom out. It had to do SOMETHING with moving the app to and from the background. Okay is it some kind of sleep issue? I don't remember where or how I found it but I saw a suggestion to run the Tauri dev build with a --no-watch flag. Which disables hot reloading of the app when I edit one of the TypeScript/HTML files. Somehow the reload would be triggered sometimes on app switching. Why? I don't know, but i'm glad I could pinpoint it. So now the demo part seems stable, finally. Which means I can move on and properly implement the wallet logic and making the download on the website work. ## TollGateOS  The second customer group will be people interested in running a TollGate. We're trying to get them to download our custom build of OpenWRT that includes all the required packages. We 'baptized' this version to be called **TollGateOS** as we say in proper Dutch ;). I think it will help to have these clear distinct names. I really want any moderately technical person to be able to install TollGateOS on a supported router. My vision for this is to have some kind of web installer, akin to what GrapheneOS does with their web-installer. It seems to be possible to do SSH from the browser, but I'll kill that bird when I see it (is that a saying? I think it should be...) By the way, in earlier docs/demo's we talked about a 'herald' module, which would do the advertising of the tollgate. But as we found that the crowsnest already interacts with the hardware antennas, which is needed for 'advertising' the tollgate, we thought it better to merge both of them into the Crowsnest. ## Developers TollGate is fully open source, so anyone looking to either look at or fork the source code is welcome to do so. Developers interested at looking at the code are probably already interested to some degree. For this group we added easy links to navigate to the project's repositories Currently our focus is publishing the Android version, but we're building the app in a cross-platform way. The only thing we have to customize are the system integrations, like scanning for wifi-networks and connecting to them. ## Gearing up for Sovereign Engineering As i'm writing this piece for you i'm at 10km (that's 30.000ft for y'all Americans) in the air on my way to Sovereign Engineering edition #4, SEC-04. I feel ready to go kick ass once again and build beautiful things with a bunch of my favourite plebs! ## A bit of a focus shift If you've been following me you might notice I haven't posted much about Epoxy recently. I found the momentum I see emerge on TollGate and GitHub Actions too good to let go to waste. So those will be my focus for a while, I'm hoping to circle back to Epoxy when these projects have a more steady pace.

@ df478568:2a951e67

In [my Soapminer article](https://habla.news/u/marc@primal.net/washing-the-invisible-hand-with-soapminer), I added quotes from various plebs. I earned over 12,000 sats! That's enough for a McJunk today, but maybe a steak dinner in a few years. That's my two sats anyway. *This is not investment advice* It feels great to receive value from people who support and appreciate your work. It's also nice to stack more sats by writing. I have a budget of $25.00 that I have sent to various people using Zapplanner, but I'm trying something new: Zapsplits. ## WTF Are Zapsplits? I asked [Unleashed.chat](https://unleashed.chat). Here's what the anthropomorphic Unleashed said. Me: What is a Zapsplit on nostr?  Unleashed: A Zapsplit on Nostr refers to splitting a Zap, which is a form of donation or tipping on the ~platform~ protocol, among multiple recipients. **It allows users to distribute their support more broadly across various content creators instead of just one**. That's more succinct than I would put it, but nostr is a protocol, not a platform. The important part about Zapsplits for me is that it removes the cognitive cost of deciding what percentage of my giving budget should go to each creator. Do I zap podcast guests? Do podcasters with ads get less than podcasters sans ads? How much value did this particular article bring me? If I zap Guy Swann, should I also zap the authors he reads? Should I zap long-form articles more than micro-blogs? There are 21 million different considerations. Zapsplits removes all this from me because I can use the following algorithm.  ### Does This Person Provide Me Value? Yes ⬇️ I add them to my Zapsplit post for that month. A portion of my monthly zapping budget, 25 dirty-fiat bucks, transforms into magic Internet money and is distributed among everyone in the Zapsplit. No ⬇️ If I don't get any value, I don't send value. Simple. #### Testing Zapsplits I added podcasters and devs to a nostr post and enabled a 10-way zapsplit on the post. It's based on [prisms](https://www.nobsbitcoin.com/lightning-prism-nostr/), a little nostr feature that gives me prose writing superpowers. 1. I can earn sats for writing. 2. I can support others with a single zap. 3. I can add people who give me quotes to my zap splits. People appreciate attribution. I suspect they will appreciate it more if they also get paid. What if I added some quotes to an article and then split any zaps I get with the quoted plebs? Come to think of it, I'll try it. [Here's a quote from a dev on nostr](nostr:note1qf4277rudtflllrjr555890xsjp6u60f7xdvclkwc9t220duajeq0x665q I added Silberangel to the Zapsplits on Habla.news. My [V4V](https://blog.getalby.com/the-case-for-value-4-value/) payments can also get sent to ten different plebs with a simple click of a button. I am going to start using this for a lot of my monthly V4V budget. Every month, I'll think about the people's content I value most and add them to a single zapsplit payment. Then, I'll zap the post. Say I create a poll and make a wager with ten different people. If I lose, I can pay everyone pit at the same time. This is probably better for a football pool, but you get the idea. The options are limited only by your imagination.  nostr:nevent1qqspnhucgxc6mprhw36fe2242hzv7zumavyy7dhzjswtldhxk4dh7ugpz4mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduhsygxlg7zks3uauf454q7phhzdh2mpkhxg9cdrzt3t9z7gzksj49g7vupsgqqqqqqsl5uwfl Other people can also zap the post. As Siberangel says, we can use other people's money to provide value, too. This is a great option for stacking neophytes, people who don't have much bitcoin or cheap skates. Let's be honest, bitcoin has made most of us cheapskates. Bitcoin books with multiple authors can have QR codes that link to one of these Zapsplit posts. The authors can do a book signing and sell their books using this on nostr. Nerds like me can get three autographs and zap the book. The sats are split among all authors. Here's a Zapsplit that includes all the authors of Parallel.  Can you think of any other ways to use Zapsplits? Let me know. npub1marc26z8nh3xkj5rcx7ufkatvx6ueqhp5vfw9v5teq26z254renshtf3g0 [885,610](https://mempool.marc26z.com/block/00000000000000000000742c0f980fcfcbd25fade47c3ebcfd69eda93f6861c7) [Merch](https://marc26z.com/merch/)

@ 43baaf0c:d193e34c

eARThist vlog name represents the fusion of Earth and Art and me as traveling artist. I'm kicking off my vlogging journey with my first vlog, Bangkok Lightning Tour. My goal with vlogging is to share more about my art journey as I travel the world. After years of traveling and filming around the world, I’m now fully focused on my art. However, filming and photography remaining a passion of mine. I also create still some travel content for my company, @traveltelly, whenever I’m not drawing.  After spending time creating art around the world, this feels like the natural next step sharing more behind the scenes moments of both traveling and my artist life.  I started in Bangkok, a city I often visit and where I’ve spent the last five months creating the BangPOP art. Teaming up with Sats ‘n’ Facts, I explored Bangkok to see how Bitcoin Lightning adoption is growing here. Bitcoin has given me the freedom to create art, so I wanted to see if it’s also helping others in Bangkok. On a scorching 35°C day, we filmed three places where you can pay with Bitcoin Lightning. You can find these locations on btcmap.org.  I’m leaving Bangkok soon, but more vlogs from Thailand will follow when I return. I always find my way back to the Land of Smiles.

@ a012dc82:6458a70d

Bitcoin, since its creation by the enigmatic figure Satoshi Nakamoto, has revolutionized the concept of currency. Its journey from an obscure digital token to a major financial asset has been marked by dramatic bull runs, capturing the attention of investors worldwide. These surges in Bitcoin's value are not random but are driven by a combination of technological innovation, economic factors, and unique monetary policy. In this article, we explore the intricacies of Bitcoin's scarcity, the halving process, and the broader market dynamics that contribute to its periodic bull runs. The allure of Bitcoin lies not just in its technological novelty but also in its challenge to traditional financial systems. It represents a decentralized form of currency, free from government control and manipulation. This aspect has been particularly appealing in times of economic uncertainty, where traditional currencies and markets have shown vulnerability. Bitcoin's bull runs can be seen as a barometer of the changing landscape of finance, reflecting a growing shift towards digital assets. **Table of Contents** - The Concept of Scarcity in Bitcoin - Finite Supply - Impact on Value - The Halving Events - Mechanism and Purpose - Historical Impact on Price - Market Dynamics and Investor Sentiment - Institutional Investment - Global Economic Factors - Technological Advancements - Regulatory Environment - Conclusion - FAQs **The Concept of Scarcity in Bitcoin** **Finite Supply** Bitcoin's protocol ensures that only 21 million coins will ever be in existence. This limit is encoded in its blockchain, making it a deflationary asset as opposed to inflationary fiat currencies. The idea behind this is to create a form of money that can resist inflationary pressures over time, much like gold, which has maintained its value for centuries due to its scarcity. **Impact on Value** The scarcity of Bitcoin has a profound psychological impact on investors. It creates a sense of urgency and a fear of missing out (FOMO) as the available supply dwindles. This is particularly evident as each Bitcoin halving event approaches, reminding the market of the ever-decreasing new supply. The result is often a speculative rally, as seen in the past bull runs. Moreover, as Bitcoin becomes more scarce, its comparison to gold becomes increasingly apt, attracting investors who are looking for assets that can retain value over time. Scarcity also plays into the hands of long-term investors, often referred to as 'HODLers' in the crypto community. These investors view Bitcoin as a long-term store of value, akin to an investment in precious metals. The limited supply of Bitcoin reassures these investors that their holdings will not be devalued through oversupply, a common problem in fiat currencies. **The Halving Events** **Mechanism and Purpose** Bitcoin's halving is a genius mechanism that ensures a controlled and gradual distribution of coins. By reducing the mining reward by half every four years, Bitcoin mimics the process of extracting a natural resource like gold, becoming progressively harder and more resource-intensive to mine. This not only controls inflation but also adds to the scarcity, making each coin more valuable over time. **Historical Impact on Price** Each halving event has historically led to an increase in Bitcoin's price, though not immediately. There is typically a lag between the halving and the subsequent bull run. This delay can be attributed to market adjustment and the gradual realization of reduced supply. The anticipation of this price increase often starts a positive feedback loop, attracting more investors and further driving up the price. The halving events serve as key milestones in Bitcoin's timeline, providing a predictable pattern of supply reduction that savvy investors monitor closely. These events have become celebratory moments within the Bitcoin community, symbolizing the strength and resilience of the network. They also serve as a reminder of Bitcoin's unique value proposition in the world of cryptocurrencies. **Market Dynamics and Investor Sentiment** **Institutional Investment** The recent years have seen a paradigm shift with the entry of institutional investors into the Bitcoin market. This shift is significant as it marks a departure from Bitcoin's early days of being a niche asset for tech enthusiasts. Institutional investors bring with them not only large capital inflows but also a sense of legitimacy and stability to the market. Their involvement has been a key driver in the maturation of the cryptocurrency market, making it more appealing to a broader audience. **Global Economic Factors** The role of global economic factors in influencing Bitcoin's price cannot be overstated. In times of economic instability, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic, investors increasingly turned to Bitcoin as a safe haven asset. This trend is indicative of a growing recognition of Bitcoin's value as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. The decentralized nature of Bitcoin makes it less susceptible to geopolitical tensions and policy changes that affect traditional currencies and markets. **Technological Advancements** The continuous evolution of blockchain technology and the infrastructure surrounding Bitcoin has played a crucial role in its adoption. Developments such as improved transaction speed, enhanced security measures, and user-friendly trading platforms have made Bitcoin more accessible and attractive to a wider audience. These technological advancements are crucial in building investor confidence and facilitating the integration of Bitcoin into mainstream finance. **Regulatory Environment** The regulatory environment for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies has been a double-edged sword. On one hand, clear and supportive regulations in certain jurisdictions have provided a boost to the market, encouraging institutional participation and providing clarity for investors. On the other hand, regulatory crackdowns in some countries have led to market volatility and uncertainty. The ongoing development of a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies remains a key factor in shaping Bitcoin's future. **Conclusion** Bitcoin's journey is a testament to the evolving nature of finance and investment in the digital age. Its bull runs, driven by scarcity, halving events, and a complex interplay of market dynamics, highlight the growing acceptance of cryptocurrencies as a legitimate asset class. As the world increasingly embraces digital currencies, Bitcoin's role as a pioneer and standard-bearer will likely continue to influence its value and relevance in the global financial landscape. Understanding Bitcoin's market dynamics is not just about analyzing charts and trends. It's about appreciating the broader context of economic, technological, and social changes that are reshaping the way we think about money and value. For investors and enthusiasts alike, staying informed and adaptable is key to navigating the exciting and often unpredictable world of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. **FAQs** **What causes a Bitcoin bull run?** Bitcoin bull runs are typically driven by a combination of factors including its built-in scarcity due to the finite supply, halving events reducing the mining rewards, institutional investment, global economic factors, advancements in blockchain technology, and the evolving regulatory landscape. **How does Bitcoin's scarcity affect its value?** Bitcoin's value is significantly influenced by its scarcity. With a capped supply of 21 million coins, as demand increases, the limited supply pushes the price upwards, similar to precious metals like gold. **What is a Bitcoin halving event?** A Bitcoin halving event is when the reward for mining new Bitcoin blocks is halved, effectively reducing the rate at which new Bitcoins are created. This occurs approximately every four years and is a key factor in Bitcoin's deflationary model. **Why do institutional investors matter in Bitcoin's market?** Institutional investors bring significant capital, credibility, and stability to the Bitcoin market. Their participation signals a maturation of the market and can lead to increased confidence and investment from other sectors. **That's all for today** **If you want more, be sure to follow us on:** **NOSTR: croxroad@getalby.com** **X: [@croxroadnewsco](https://x.com/croxroadnewsco)** **Instagram: [@croxroadnews.co/](https://www.instagram.com/croxroadnews.co/)** **Youtube: [@thebitcoinlibertarian](https://www.youtube.com/@thebitcoinlibertarian)** **Store: https://croxroad.store** **Subscribe to CROX ROAD Bitcoin Only Daily Newsletter** **https://www.croxroad.co/subscribe** **Get Orange Pill App And Connect With Bitcoiners In Your Area. Stack Friends Who Stack Sats link: https://signup.theorangepillapp.com/opa/croxroad** **Buy Bitcoin Books At Konsensus Network Store. 10% Discount With Code “21croxroad” link: https://bitcoinbook.shop?ref=21croxroad** *DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.*

@ 732c6a62:42003da2

 > De acordo com a Forbes, a Ripple (Empresa responsável pela Criptomoeda XRP) tem financiado e apoiado campanhas contra a mineração de Bitcoin. ## **Por que Ripple faz propaganda anti-bitcoin?** Simples: **eles são o oposto do Bitcoin em quase tudo.** Enquanto o Bitcoin foi criado para ser descentralizado, resistente à censura e independente de instituições, o Ripple é basicamente um serviço bancário 2.0. Eles precisam atacar o Bitcoin para justificar sua própria existência. ## **O que você não sabe:** 1. **Ripple Labs controla a maioria do XRP:** Eles têm um estoque estratégico que pode ser liberado no mercado a qualquer momento. Isso é o oposto de descentralização. 2. **XRP não é uma moeda para "pessoas comuns":** Foi criada para bancos e instituições financeiras. Basicamente, é o "banco central" das criptomoedas. 3. **Ripple não é blockchain no sentido tradicional:** Eles usam um protocolo chamado **Ripple Protocol Consensus Algorithm (RPCA)**, que é mais rápido, mas menos descentralizado. ## **Os principais ataques do Ripple ao Bitcoin:** 1. **Anti-mineração:** O Ripple critica o consumo de energia do Bitcoin, mas esquece que seu próprio sistema depende de servidores centralizados que também consomem energia. 2. **Anti-reserva estratégica:** O Ripple tem um estoque gigante de XRP, mas critica o Bitcoin por ser "deflacionário". Hipocrisia? Nunca ouvi falar. 3. **Anti-descentralização:** O Ripple prega que a descentralização do Bitcoin é "ineficiente", mas o que eles realmente querem é manter o controle nas mãos de poucos. ## **Análise Psicológica Básica (para você que acha que XRP é o futuro):** - **Síndrome do Underdog:** Acha que apoiar o Ripple te faz um rebelde, mas na verdade você está torcendo para o sistema bancário tradicional. - **Viés de Confirmação:** Só ouve opiniões que validam sua decisão de comprar XRP. - **Efeito Dunning-Kruger:** Acha que entender Ripple te torna um especialista em criptomoedas, mas não sabe o que é um *hard fork*. **Estudo de Caso (Real, mas Você Vai Ignorar):** Carlos, 30 anos, comprou XRP porque "é o futuro das transações bancárias". Ele não sabe que o Ripple está sendo processado pela SEC por vender XRP como um título não registrado. Carlos agora está esperando o "pump" que nunca vem. ## **Conclusão: ou, "volte para a aula de economia do ensino médio"** Ripple não é o futuro das finanças. É só mais um player tentando lucrar em um mercado competitivo. E sua propaganda anti-Bitcoin? Essa só prova que **a descentralização assusta quem quer controle**. Agora vá estudar blockchain básico — ou pelo menos pare de compartilhar memes com erros de português.

@ b83a28b7:35919450

## **Preamble** *I used OpenAI's o3-mini reasoning engine to construct a thesis for the Russia-Ukraine conflict using the positions of Jeffery Sachs and John Mearsheimer. I then asked it to create a counterargument to those positions- the antithesis. And I finally asked for a synthesis that concludes in lasting peace in the region. In all three cases, I prompted it to only use axiomatic deductive reasoning and first principles thinking, emphasizing facts and ignoring the opinions and assertions of so-called experts.* # The Thesis ## **John Mearsheimer's Position: A Realist Perspective** ### **First Principles** 1. **States prioritize survival**: In an anarchic international system (no overarching authority), states act to maximize security and minimize threats. 2. **Great powers seek regional hegemony**: States aim to dominate their immediate regions to prevent rival powers from threatening them. 3. **Proximity amplifies threat perception**: The closer a rival power or alliance is to a state's borders, the greater the perceived threat. ### **Logical Reasoning** 1. NATO's eastward expansion brings a U.S.-led military alliance closer to Russia’s borders. - From the principle of proximity, this increases Russia’s perceived insecurity. 2. Ukraine’s potential NATO membership represents a direct challenge to Russia’s sphere of influence. - A great power like Russia would logically act to prevent this encroachment, as it undermines its regional dominance. 3. Russia’s actions (e.g., annexation of Crimea in 2014 and invasion in 2022) are defensive responses to NATO's perceived encroachment. - From the principle of survival, Russia seeks to neutralize threats by ensuring Ukraine does not join NATO. 4. The U.S. and NATO ignored Russia’s stated red lines (e.g., no NATO membership for Ukraine). - This provoked predictable countermeasures from Russia, consistent with great-power behavior. ### **Conclusion** From a realist perspective, NATO expansion is the root cause of the conflict. Russia’s actions are not imperialistic but defensive responses to protect its security and sphere of influence. ## **Jeffrey Sachs' Position: A Historical and Diplomatic Perspective** ### **First Principles** 1. **Agreements create expectations**: Commitments between states establish norms that guide future behavior. 2. **Security is interdependent**: One state’s pursuit of security can increase another state’s insecurity (the "security dilemma"). 3. **Conflicts are preventable through diplomacy**: Negotiations and compromises can avert wars by addressing mutual concerns. ### **Logical Reasoning** 1. In 1990, U.S. officials assured Soviet leaders that NATO would not expand eastward if Germany was reunified. - If such assurances were made (even informally), subsequent NATO expansion violated these expectations, fostering mistrust. 2. The U.S.'s unilateral withdrawal from treaties like the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (2002) and its push for NATO enlargement exacerbated Russia's insecurity. - By the principle of interdependent security, these actions predictably escalated tensions with Russia. 3. Putin proposed negotiations in 2021 to prevent NATO expansion into Ukraine, but these were rejected by the U.S. - Diplomacy could have addressed Russian concerns without war, but its rejection left military action as Russia’s only perceived option. 4. Ukraine’s neutrality could have prevented conflict by satisfying both Russian and Western security concerns. - Neutrality would reduce NATO's proximity to Russia while preserving Ukraine's sovereignty. ### **Conclusion** From Sachs’ perspective, the war is a consequence of U.S.-led NATO expansion and missed diplomatic opportunities. A negotiated settlement based on Ukrainian neutrality remains the logical path to peace. ## Deductive Insights 1. Both positions agree that NATO expansion is central to understanding the conflict but differ in emphasis: - Mearsheimer focuses on structural inevitabilities in great-power politics. - Sachs highlights historical commitments and missed opportunities for diplomacy. 2. Both rely on axioms about state behavior: - Mearsheimer emphasizes security maximization through power balancing. - Sachs underscores trust-building through adherence to agreements. In conclusion, reasoning from first principles supports both scholars’ views as internally consistent frameworks for explaining the Ukraine conflict, though they emphasize different aspects of state behavior and international relations logic. To construct counterarguments to the positions of John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs using axiomatic deductive reasoning, we will start with alternative first principles and challenge their logical conclusions. This approach ensures that the counterarguments are rooted in logic and facts, without relying on external opinions or assertions. ## **Counterarguments to John Mearsheimer's Position** ### **First Principles for the Counterargument** 1. **Sovereign states have the right to self-determination**: All states, regardless of size, have the right to choose their alliances and political alignments. 2. **Security is not zero-sum**: One state’s pursuit of security does not always come at the expense of another’s; collective security arrangements can enhance stability. 3. **Aggression undermines security**: A state that invades its neighbors creates insecurity for itself by provoking opposition and strengthening rival alliances. ### **Logical Reasoning** 1. NATO expansion was voluntary and driven by the sovereign decisions of Eastern European states seeking protection from historical Russian aggression. - From the principle of self-determination, NATO enlargement reflects the legitimate choices of countries like Poland, Estonia, and Ukraine to align with a defensive alliance, not an act of Western aggression against Russia. 2. Russia’s perception of NATO as a threat is not inherently justified. - NATO is a defensive alliance with no history of invading non-member states. From the principle that security is not zero-sum, NATO’s presence near Russia does not necessarily reduce Russian security unless Russia itself acts aggressively. 3. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine contradicts Mearsheimer’s claim that its actions are purely defensive. - By attacking Ukraine, Russia has provoked a stronger NATO presence in Eastern Europe (e.g., Finland and Sweden joining NATO) and increased its own insecurity. This undermines the principle that great powers act rationally to maximize their security. 4. The analogy to the Cuban Missile Crisis is flawed. - In 1962, the U.S. objected to Soviet missiles in Cuba because they posed an immediate offensive threat. NATO membership for Ukraine does not involve stationing offensive weapons aimed at Russia but rather a defensive commitment. ### **Conclusion** Mearsheimer’s argument fails to account for the agency of smaller states and overstates the inevitability of conflict due to NATO expansion. Russia’s actions are better explained as aggressive attempts to reassert imperial influence rather than rational defensive measures. # The Antithesis ## **Counterarguments to Jeffrey Sachs' Position** ### **First Principles for the Counterargument** 1. **Informal agreements lack binding force**: Verbal or informal assurances between states do not constitute enforceable commitments in international relations. 2. **Security dilemmas require mutual restraint**: Both sides in a conflict must take steps to reduce tensions; unilateral blame is insufficient. 3. **Sovereign equality underpins diplomacy**: No state has the right to dictate another state’s foreign policy or alliances. ### **Logical Reasoning** 1. The alleged 1990 U.S. assurance against NATO expansion was never formalized in any treaty or agreement. - From the principle that informal agreements lack binding force, subsequent NATO enlargement cannot be considered a violation of commitments since no legal obligation existed. 2. Russia’s actions have escalated tensions far more than NATO expansion ever did. - By annexing Crimea (2014) and invading Ukraine (2022), Russia has actively destabilized its neighbors and created insecurity across Europe. From the principle of mutual restraint, Russia bears responsibility for escalating the conflict rather than solely responding to U.S./NATO actions. 3. Diplomatic solutions require both parties to negotiate in good faith. - Putin’s 2021 proposals demanded guarantees that Ukraine would never join NATO—a condition that violates Ukraine’s sovereignty and right to self-determination. From the principle of sovereign equality, such demands are inherently illegitimate. 4. Neutrality is not always a viable solution. - Ukraine attempted neutrality after independence (e.g., refusing to join NATO for decades). However, this did not prevent Russian aggression in 2014 or 2022, undermining Sachs’ claim that neutrality would have ensured peace. ### **Conclusion** Sachs’ argument overemphasizes historical grievances and ignores Russia’s active role in escalating tensions through aggression and coercion. The failure of diplomacy lies as much with Russia’s demands as with Western policies. ## **Deductive Insights from Counterarguments** 1. Both Mearsheimer and Sachs underestimate the agency of smaller states like Ukraine, which made sovereign decisions based on their own security needs rather than being mere pawns in great-power politics. 2. Both positions assume that Russia’s actions are primarily reactive or defensive, but this ignores evidence that Russia has proactively pursued aggressive policies (e.g., Georgia 2008, Crimea 2014). 3. The principle of sovereignty challenges both scholars’ frameworks: - Mearsheimer overlooks Ukraine's right to align with NATO if it chooses. - Sachs dismisses Ukraine's agency by suggesting neutrality could have been imposed as a solution. In conclusion, while Mearsheimer and Sachs present internally consistent arguments, their frameworks can be challenged by emphasizing sovereignty, rejecting inevitability in great-power conflict, and highlighting Russia's active role in escalating tensions beyond what can be justified by security concerns alone. # The Synthesis: A Balanced Framework for Resolving the Russia-Ukraine Conflict ### **First Principles for Synthesis** 1. **Security is interdependent**: A state’s pursuit of security can create insecurity for others, necessitating mutual accommodation. 2. **Sovereignty is fundamental but constrained by geography**: States have a right to self-determination, but geography imposes practical limits on absolute sovereignty in a multipolar world. 3. **Great powers act to preserve their spheres of influence**: In an anarchic international system, great powers prioritize regional dominance to ensure their survival. 4. **Diplomacy is essential for de-escalation**: Durable peace requires negotiated compromises that address the core interests of all parties involved. ### **Reconciling the Thesis and Antithesis** #### **Thesis (Mearsheimer and Sachs' Positions)** - NATO expansion near Russia’s borders provoked a predictable response from Moscow, reflecting structural dynamics of great-power competition. - U.S. and NATO policies ignored Russian security concerns, contributing to the escalation of tensions. - Diplomacy and neutrality for Ukraine are necessary to resolve the conflict. #### **Antithesis (Counterarguments)** - NATO expansion was driven by voluntary decisions of Eastern European states seeking protection from historical Russian aggression, not Western provocation. - Russia’s actions are not purely defensive but reflect imperial ambitions that violate Ukraine’s sovereignty. - Neutrality alone would not guarantee peace, as Russia has acted aggressively even when Ukraine was neutral. #### **Synthesis** Both perspectives contain valid insights but fail to fully address the complexity of the conflict. The synthesis must: 1. Acknowledge Russia’s legitimate security concerns while rejecting its imperialistic actions. 2. Respect Ukraine’s sovereignty while recognizing that its geographic position necessitates pragmatic compromises. 3. Balance great-power dynamics with smaller states’ rights to self-determination. ## **Proposed Solution: A Comprehensive Peace Framework** To achieve an enduring peace in Ukraine and stabilize Eastern Europe, the following steps are proposed: ### 1. Immediate Ceasefire - Both sides agree to an immediate cessation of hostilities under international supervision (e.g., UN peacekeeping forces). - A demilitarized buffer zone is established along current frontlines to prevent further clashes. ### 2. Neutrality with Conditions - Ukraine adopts a status of permanent neutrality, enshrined in its constitution and guaranteed by international treaties. - Neutrality includes: - No NATO membership for Ukraine. - Freedom for Ukraine to pursue economic integration with both the EU and other global partners without military alignments. ### 3. Security Guarantees - Russia receives legally binding assurances that NATO will not expand further eastward or station offensive weapons near its borders. - Ukraine receives multilateral security guarantees from major powers (e.g., U.S., EU, China) to deter future aggression from any party. ### 4. Territorial Dispute Resolution - Crimea’s status is deferred to future negotiations under international mediation, with both sides agreeing to maintain the status quo in the interim. - Donetsk and Luhansk regions are granted autonomy within Ukraine under a decentralized federal structure, ensuring local governance while preserving Ukrainian sovereignty. ### 5. Economic Reconstruction - An international fund is established for rebuilding war-torn regions in Ukraine, with contributions from Russia, Western nations, and multilateral institutions. - Economic cooperation between Ukraine and Russia is encouraged through trade agreements designed to benefit both parties. ### 6. Phased Implementation - Peace agreements are implemented incrementally to build trust: - Initial steps include withdrawal of heavy weaponry, prisoner exchanges, and humanitarian aid delivery. - Subsequent phases involve constitutional reforms (e.g., neutrality), elections in disputed regions, and gradual reintegration of territories under international supervision. ### 7. Long-Term Regional Security Framework - A new regional security framework is established involving Russia, Ukraine, NATO members, and neutral states to manage disputes peacefully. - This framework institutionalizes dialogue channels for arms control, economic cooperation, and crisis management. ## **Rationale for the Solution** 1. **Balances Security Concerns**: - Neutrality addresses Russia’s fears of NATO encirclement while preserving Ukraine’s independence. - Security guarantees reduce mistrust between NATO and Russia while protecting Ukraine from future aggression. 2. **Respects Sovereignty**: - Ukraine retains its independence and territorial integrity (except for deferred issues like Crimea) while accommodating regional realities through federalism and neutrality. 3. **Acknowledges Great-Power Dynamics**: - The solution recognizes Russia’s need for a secure sphere of influence without legitimizing its imperial ambitions or violating international law. 4. **Builds Trust Through Gradualism**: - Incremental implementation allows both sides to verify commitments before proceeding further. - International monitoring ensures compliance with agreements. 5. **Incorporates Lessons from History**: - Neutrality models (e.g., Austria) demonstrate that such arrangements can work when backed by strong guarantees. - Phased implementation mirrors successful peace processes in other conflicts (e.g., Colombia). ## **Conclusion** The synthesis reconciles the structural realism of Mearsheimer with Sachs’ emphasis on diplomacy by proposing a balanced solution that addresses both security dilemmas and sovereignty concerns. Neutrality serves as the linchpin for de-escalation, while phased implementation builds trust over time. By integrating immediate conflict resolution measures with long-term regional frameworks, this approach offers a realistic path toward enduring peace in Eastern Europe. *Citations:* [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1drhxxh/john_mearsheimers_take_on_the_russoukrainian_war/ [2] https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/14ktcv2/the_darkness_ahead_where_the_ukraine_war_is/ [3] https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalScience/comments/1bp64ub/what_is_with_mearsheimer_and_russia/ [4] https://www.reddit.com/r/AskConservatives/comments/1gznjks/do_you_think_appeasing_putin_is_the_right_way_to/ [5] https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/comments/1hu8iop/cmv_the_united_states_should_continue_to_send_aid/ [6] https://internationalpolicy.org/publications/jeffrey-sachs-matt-duss-debate-u-s-russia-talks-to-end-ukraine-war/ [7] https://www.reddit.com/r/IRstudies/comments/17iwfpr/john_mearsheimer_is_wrong_about_ukraine/ [8] 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https://blog.prif.org/2023/07/26/russian-self-defense-fact-checking-arguments-on-the-russo-ukrainian-war-by-john-j-mearsheimer-and-others/ [85] https://europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/the-ukraine-crisis-according-to-john-j-mearsheimer-impeccable-logic-wrong-facts/ [86] https://pjia.com.pk/index.php/pjia/article/download/837/587 [87] https://www.reddit.com/r/TheAllinPodcasts/comments/1e4noiz/where_is_sacks_prorussia_motive_coming_from/ [88] https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1an20x2/why_did_boris_johnson_tell_ukraine_not_to_take/ [89] https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1gjfcwg/media_reveals_deal_russia_offered_to_ukraine_at/ [90] https://www.reddit.com/r/AskARussian/comments/1d3pv6y/do_you_feel_like_the_west_was_actively_sabotaging/

@ d360efec:14907b5f

**ภาพรวม (Integrated Overview)** ถ้าพิจารณาทั้ง TF Daily, 4H, และ 15m (พร้อมข้อมูล Money Flow ที่เป็นลบในทุก TF) ราคาปัจจุบันประมาณ 84,579 **การวิเคราะห์แบบรวม*** 1. **แนวโน้ม (Trend):** * **Daily:** *ขาลง* (Bearish) แม้ว่าราคาจะอยู่เหนือเส้นค่าเฉลี่ยเคลื่อนที่ (EMA) แต่ *Money Flow ที่เป็นลบอย่างรุนแรง* บ่งชี้ถึงแนวโน้มขาลง * **4H:** *ขาลง* (Bearish) Money Flow เป็นลบอย่างมาก และมี *รูปแบบ* Head and Shoulders ที่มีโอกาสเกิดขึ้น * **15m:** *ขาลง* (Bearish) Money Flow เป็นลบ 2. **SMC & ICT (Smart Money Concepts & Inner Circle Trader):** * **Buyside Liquidity:** อยู่เหนือราคาสูงสุดปัจจุบัน ระดับราคาที่ *อาจ* เป็นแนวต้าน (จากกราฟ Daily): 90456.8, 92755.8, 95054.9, 97354.0, 99653.1, 101952.1, 104251.3, 106550.3, 109998.9, และ 117000.0 ใน TF 15m, Buyside Liquidity คือจุดสูงสุดของแท่งเทียนก่อนหน้า * **Sellside Liquidity:** แนวรับสำคัญ: 80,000 (Neckline ของ Head and Shoulders ใน TF 4H, ตัวเลขกลม, แนวรับทางจิตวิทยา) แนวรับอื่นๆ: 83559.5, 81260.4, 78961.4, 76662.3, 74363.2, 72064.1, 69705.1, 67400.0, 66811.7, และ 65166.9 (จากกราฟ Daily) ใน TF 15m, Sellside Liquidity คือจุดต่ำสุดของแท่งเทียนก่อนหน้า 3. **Money Flow:** * **Daily:** *เป็นลบอย่างมาก* (Strongly Negative) * **4H:** *เป็นลบอย่างมาก* (Strongly Negative) * **15m:** *เป็นลบ* (Negative) * **นี่คือตัวบ่งชี้ที่สำคัญที่สุดในขณะนี้ และเป็นขาลงในทุก Timeframe** 4. **EMA (Exponential Moving Averages):** * **Daily:** ราคาอยู่เหนือ EMA 50 และ 200 *แต่ถูกหักล้างด้วย Money Flow ที่เป็นลบ* * **4H:** ราคาอยู่เหนือ EMA 50 และ 200 *แต่ถูกหักล้างด้วย Money Flow ที่เป็นลบ* * **15m:** ราคาแกว่งตัวรอบ EMA 50, อยู่เหนือ EMA 200 *แต่ถูกหักล้างด้วย Money Flow ที่เป็นลบ* 5. **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha):** * **Daily:** เมฆ Ichimoku เป็นสีเทา (Neutral - เป็นกลาง) * **4H:** เมฆ Ichimoku เป็นสีเทา (Neutral - เป็นกลาง) * **15m:** เมฆ Ichimoku เป็นสีเทา (Neutral - เป็นกลาง) 6. **Chart Patterns (รูปแบบกราฟ):** * **Daily:** ไม่มีรูปแบบที่ชัดเจน แต่มีการอ่อนตัวของราคา * **4H:** *มีโอกาสเกิด* รูปแบบ Head and Shoulders (กลับหัว) (Bearish - ขาลง) * **15m:** ไม่มีรูปแบบที่ชัดเจน แต่อาจเป็นส่วนหนึ่งของ Right Shoulder ใน TF 4H **กลยุทธ์ Day Trade (SMC-Based)** เนื่องจาก Money Flow ที่เป็นลบอย่างท่วมท้นในทุก Timeframes และรูปแบบ Head and Shoulders ที่มีโอกาสเกิดขึ้นใน TF 4H กลยุทธ์การซื้อขายที่สมเหตุสมผล *เพียงอย่างเดียว* คือ **การป้องกันอย่างเข้มงวด** โดยเน้นที่ **การหลีกเลี่ยงสถานะ Long** และพิจารณาสถานะ Short *เฉพาะ* เมื่อมีเงื่อนไขที่เข้มงวดมากเท่านั้น 1. **Long (Buy):** *ไม่แนะนำโดยเด็ดขาด* (Absolutely, unequivocally not recommended) การทำเช่นนี้จะเป็นการซื้อขายสวนทางกับแนวโน้มหลักและสัญญาณ Money Flow ที่ชัดเจน 2. **Short (Sell):** * **Entry (จุดเข้า):** นี่คือการเทรด *เดียว* ที่ *อาจ* มีเหตุผลสนับสนุน, แต่ *เฉพาะ* เมื่อเงื่อนไข *ทั้งหมด* ต่อไปนี้เป็นจริง: * รูปแบบ Head and Shoulders ใน TF 4H *เสร็จสมบูรณ์* ด้วยการ Breakout ที่ชัดเจนใต้ Neckline (80,000-81,000) * การ Breakout ใต้ Neckline เกิดขึ้นพร้อมกับ *Volume ที่สูง* * Money Flow ใน *ทั้งสาม* Timeframes ยังคง *เป็นลบอย่างมาก* * คุณมีสัญญาณ Bearish อื่นๆ ยืนยัน (เช่น รูปแบบแท่งเทียน Bearish, Bearish Divergence) * **Target (เป้าหมาย):** ระดับ Sellside Liquidity (เช่น 78961.4, 76662.3) * **Stop Loss (จุดตัดขาดทุน):** *เหนือ* Neckline หรือ Right Shoulder ทันที *จำเป็นต้องมี Stop Loss ที่เข้มงวดอย่างยิ่ง* 3. **No Trade (ไม่เทรด):** เป็นตัวเลือกที่ *ดีที่สุด* สำหรับนักเทรด/นักลงทุนส่วนใหญ่ ความเสี่ยงที่จะเกิดการปรับฐานครั้งใหญ่มีสูงมาก **สรุป** สถานการณ์ของ BTC คือ **Bearish อย่างมาก** *Money Flow ที่เป็นลบอย่างมากในทุก Timeframes* เป็นปัจจัยสำคัญที่สุด ซึ่งมีน้ำหนักมากกว่าสัญญาณ Bullish ใดๆ ก่อนหน้านี้จาก EMA รูปแบบ Head and Shoulders ที่มีโอกาสเกิดขึ้นใน TF 4H ช่วยเพิ่มการยืนยันแนวโน้ม Bearish **สถานะ Long ไม่สมเหตุสมผลอย่างยิ่ง** สถานะ Short *อาจ* พิจารณาได้, แต่ *ต้อง* มีการยืนยันสัญญาณที่ชัดเจน *ทั้งหมด* และมีการบริหารความเสี่ยงที่เข้มงวดมาก **"Wait and See" (รอดู) และการรักษาเงินทุนเป็นสิ่งสำคัญที่สุด** **Disclaimer:** การวิเคราะห์นี้เป็นเพียงความคิดเห็นส่วนตัว ไม่ถือเป็นคำแนะนำในการลงทุน ผู้ลงทุนควรศึกษาข้อมูลเพิ่มเติมและตัดสินใจด้วยความรอบคอบ

@ d360efec:14907b5f

$OKX:BTCUSDT.P **Overview (Integrated Overview)** All three provided timeframes (Daily, 4H, and 15m, *all now confirmed to have negative Money Flow*), The current price is approximately 84,579. **Integrated Analysis** 1. **Trend:** * **Daily:** *Bearish*. While the price is above the EMAs, the *strongly negative Money Flow* on the Daily chart overrides the EMA signal, indicating a bearish trend. The Ichimoku Cloud is neutral, further supporting the idea that the previous bullish trend is weakening. * **4H:** *Bearish*. Strongly negative Money Flow and a *potential* (but not yet confirmed) inverted Head and Shoulders pattern. * **15m:** *Bearish*. Negative Money Flow. 2. **SMC & ICT (Smart Money Concepts & Inner Circle Trader):** * **Buyside Liquidity:** Above the current high. Potential resistance levels (derived from the Daily chart image, assuming it's from 2025): 90456.8, 92755.8, 95054.9, 97354.0, 99653.1, 101952.1, 104251.3, 106550.3, 109998.9, and 117000.0. On the 15m chart (though we are prioritizing the Daily and 4H now), Buyside Liquidity would be represented by recent swing highs. * **Sellside Liquidity:** Key support: 80,000 (this is the approximate neckline of the *potential* Head and Shoulders pattern on the 4H chart, a round number, and a psychological support level). Other support levels (derived from the Daily chart image): 83559.5, 81260.4, 78961.4, 76662.3, 74363.2, 72064.1, 69705.1, 67400.0, 66811.7, and 65166.9. On the 15m chart, Sellside Liquidity would be represented by recent swing lows. 3. **Money Flow:** * **Daily:** *Strongly Negative*. This is a major bearish signal. * **4H:** *Strongly Negative*. This reinforces the bearish signal and is consistent with the Daily chart. * **15m:** *Negative*. This confirms the short-term outflow of money. * **The consistently negative Money Flow across all timeframes is the most important and dominant indicator in this analysis.** 4. **EMA (Exponential Moving Averages):** * **Daily:** Price is above the EMA 50 (yellow) and EMA 200 (white). *However, the strongly negative Money Flow overrides the bullish signal typically provided by the price being above the EMAs.* * **4H:** Price is above the EMA 50 and EMA 200. *Again, the strongly negative Money Flow overrides this.* * **15m:** Price is oscillating around the EMA 50 and above the EMA 200. *The negative Money Flow overrides this.* 5. **Trend Strength (AlgoAlpha Indicator):** * **Daily:** The Ichimoku Cloud is gray (Neutral). This is *not* a bullish signal and is consistent with the negative Money Flow. * **4H:** The Ichimoku Cloud is gray (Neutral). * **15m:** The Ichimoku Cloud is gray (Neutral). 6. **Chart Patterns:** * **Daily:** No *fully formed* classic chart pattern. However, the recent price action shows a loss of upward momentum and the beginning of a potential downward move. This *weakening* price action, combined with the strongly negative Money Flow, is bearish. * **4H:** *Potential* inverted Head and Shoulders pattern. This is a *bearish reversal pattern*. It's crucial to understand that this pattern is *not yet confirmed*. Confirmation requires a decisive break *below* the neckline (approximately 80,000-81,000), *with increased volume* and *continued negative Money Flow*. * **15m:** No clearly defined classic chart pattern. The 15m price action is best understood as potentially forming the right shoulder of the 4H Head and Shoulders. **SMC-Based Day Trading Strategies** Given the overwhelmingly bearish evidence – primarily the strongly negative Money Flow across all timeframes, combined with the potential Head and Shoulders pattern on the 4H chart – the *only* justifiable trading strategy is **extreme caution and a strong bias against long positions**. Short positions have a *slightly* higher probability of success, but only under *very specific* conditions and with *extremely* tight risk management. 1. **Long (Buy):** *Absolutely, unequivocally not recommended*. There is no technical justification for entering a long position at this time. This would be trading directly against the dominant bearish signals. 2. **Short (Sell):** * **Entry:** This is the *only* trade with *any* potential, and *only* if *all* of the following conditions are met: * The Head and Shoulders pattern on the 4H chart *fully completes* with a decisive break *below* the neckline (80,000-81,000). * The breakout below the neckline occurs on *significantly increased volume*. * The Money Flow on *all three* timeframes (Daily, 4H, and 15m) remains *strongly negative* at the time of the breakout. * Additional bearish confirmation is present (e.g., bearish candlestick patterns, bearish divergences on other oscillators like RSI or MACD – which we cannot see from the provided images). * **Target:** Sellside Liquidity levels, derived from the Daily chart. Potential targets include, but are not limited to: 78961.4, 76662.3, 74363.2, and potentially lower. * **Stop Loss:** *Immediately* above the neckline (after the breakout) or above the high of the right shoulder (if placing the trade *before* a confirmed neckline break – which is *extremely* risky). *An extremely tight stop-loss is absolutely mandatory* due to the inherent volatility of BTC and the potential for false breakouts. 3. **No Trade (Cash):** This is, by far, the *best* and most prudent option for the vast majority of traders and investors. The risk of a substantial price decline is extremely high, given the confluence of bearish signals. Preserving capital should be the primary objective. **Key Levels to Watch:** * **80,000 - 81,000 (4H Chart):** This is the neckline of the potential Head and Shoulders pattern. A sustained break below this level, with the confirming factors listed above, would be a strong bearish signal. * **Money Flow on all chart**: **Conclusion** The overall technical picture for BTC, **strongly bearish**. The *dominant factor* is the *consistently and strongly negative Money Flow across all three timeframes*. This overrides any seemingly bullish signals from the EMAs. The potential (but unconfirmed) Head and Shoulders pattern on the 4H chart adds further weight to the bearish case. **Long positions are completely unjustified and extremely risky.** Short positions *might* be considered, but *only* with the strictest possible entry criteria, complete confirmation from multiple indicators, and extremely tight risk management. **The "Wait and See" approach, prioritizing capital preservation, is the most prudent strategy for most market participants.** This situation calls for extreme caution and a defensive posture. **Disclaimer:** This analysis is a personal opinion. It is not financial advice. Trading and investing in cryptocurrencies involves significant risk. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

@ ed5774ac:45611c5c

**Trump and Vance Expose Zelensky: The West’s Narrative Machine Meets Reality** In the modern era, the West has perfected the art of ruling through narratives. Stories, carefully crafted and disseminated, have become the primary tool for shaping public perception, justifying actions, and maintaining control. This narrative-driven approach to governance has been the cornerstone of Western power since the 20th century, and nowhere is this more evident than in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Enter Volodymyr Zelensky, the comedian-turned-president, who has become a poster child for this narrative-driven world order. But in a recent confrontation with Donald Trump and J.D. Vance, Zelensky’s carefully constructed facade crumbled, exposing the fragility of the Western storytelling empire. **The West’s Narrative Machine** As Alastair Crooke astutely observes in his article **The Western Way of War: Owning the Narrative Trumps Reality** ( https://www.unz.com/article/the-western-way-of-war-owning-the-narrative-trumps-reality), the West’s power lies not in its military or economic might alone but in its ability to control the narrative. Crooke argues that the West has mastered the art of “owning the story,” creating a reality that serves its interests, regardless of facts on the ground. This narrative dominance ensures that the general public—often referred to as the masses—follows along without questioning, accepting the official line as gospel truth. To maintain this control, the West relies on carefully curated protagonists who can sell its stories to the world. Take, for example, the story of Volodymyr Zelensky, a former actor whose rise to power was itself a narrative triumph. Portrayed as a relatable outsider who defeated the corrupt establishment, Zelensky promised hope and reform. But behind this carefully crafted image lay darker forces. Oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky, one of Ukraine’s most powerful and controversial figures, played a pivotal role in Zelensky’s ascent. Kolomoisky, who owned the TV channel that aired Zelensky’s show Servant of the People, used his media empire to propel the political novice into the spotlight. This was not a grassroots movement but a calculated maneuver by Ukraine’s oligarchic elite to maintain control under a new, more palatable face. **Zelensky’s Rise and the West’s Geopolitical Strategy** Zelensky’s rise was not just a domestic political shift; it was a calculated move by the West to advance its long-standing goal of containing Russia and dominating Eurasia. The West, particularly the EU and NATO, saw Ukraine as a critical piece in its geopolitical chess game. By installing a pro-Western leader like Zelensky, the West aimed to pull Ukraine firmly into its orbit, knowing full well that such a move would antagonize Moscow. This was not an accidental escalation but a deliberate provocation, designed to create a pretext for further Western intervention. To polish Zelensky’s image and present him as a beacon of hope for peace and the Westernization of Ukraine, the West also needed to whitewash Ukraine’s darker realities. This meant turning a blind eye to the corruption and oligarchic influence that underpinned Zelensky’s presidency. Equally ignored were the neo-Nazi crimes and policies that had been well-documented before 2014, such as the rise of far-right groups like Svoboda and the Azov Battalion, their glorification of Nazi collaborator **Stepan Bandera**, and their violent attacks on ethnic minorities, political opponents, and LGBTQ+ communities. These atrocities, once reported in Western media, were suddenly erased from the narrative after 2014, as if they had never existed, to preserve the image of Ukraine as an innocent victim in the West’s geopolitical chess game. **The Grand Chessboard: Ukraine as a Proxy** The West’s use of Ukraine as a geopolitical pawn is not a recent development. Its roots can be traced back to Zbigniew Brzezinski’s 1997 book The Grand Chessboard, in which the former U.S. National Security Advisor laid out a blueprint for American dominance in Eurasia. He famously wrote, “The one who rules the heartland rules the world, the one who rules East Europe rules the heartland, the one who rules Ukraine rules East Europe.” This statement foreshadowed the West’s strategic interest in Ukraine as a tool to contain and destabilize Russia—a goal that has driven Western policy for decades. Even in 2008, Western leaders like Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy opposed Ukraine’s NATO membership, recognizing that such a move would provoke Russia. Classified cables from William Burns, the U.S. Ambassador to Russia at the time, echoed this sentiment. Burns warned that NATO expansion into Ukraine was a “red line” for Moscow, succinctly stating, “**Nyet means nyet**.” The West was fully aware that it was playing with fire, risking a direct confrontation with Russia that could escalate into a potential World War III. Yet, despite these warnings, the West pushed forward with its agenda, pulling Ukraine into its orbit. The stakes were simply too high to abandon the plan. At the heart of this strategy lies the West’s desperate need to sustain its faltering economic system. Since the 2008 financial crisis, the Western debt-driven financial model has teetered on the brink of collapse. Sovereign debt crises loom large, and the banking industry, reliant on endless money printing, urgently needs new collateral to back its ever-expanding debt. Russia’s vast resource-rich territories—filled with oil, gas, minerals, and rare earth metals—offer a tempting solution. By dominating Russia and seizing control of its natural wealth, the West could issue **resource-backed bonds,** financial instruments tied directly to Russia’s oil and gas reserves. These bonds would allow the West to leverage Russia’s resources as collateral, providing a stable foundation for its debt-ridden financial system. Controlling access to these resources would ensure currency stability and keep Western economies functioning, even as debt levels soar. But the West’s ambitions extend beyond economic survival. Controlling Russia’s resources would also allow it to sever China’s access to critical raw materials, undermining Beijing’s economic and military development. By dominating Russia’s energy exports, the West could manipulate global energy prices, stabilizing its own economies while weakening rivals like China, which relies heavily on Russian energy. The U.S. and EU view China as the greatest geopolitical challenge of the 21st century, and by encircling and weakening Russia, they aim to isolate and contain Beijing. In this grand strategy, Ukraine is not merely a pawn but a critical linchpin in the West’s efforts to reshape the global order—even at the risk of catastrophic conflict. **Zelensky’s Role in the West’s Strategy** To execute this high-stakes strategy, the West needed a compelling narrative—one that could justify its actions, rally public support, and obscure its true motives. Therefore, they created the narrative around Volodymyr Zelensky, casting him as a global symbol of resistance, a hero fighting against the “evil” of Putin’s Russia. The West, particularly the EU and NATO, embraced this narrative, using it to justify billions in aid—much of which served as a cover for money laundering—sanctions on Russia, and the broader geopolitical agenda outlined above. Zelensky became the face of this narrative, a willing participant in the West’s grand strategy, even as his own country was turned into a battlefield. Zelensky’s narrative, however, is built on shaky ground. Take, for example, the claim that Putin is “non-agreement capable”—a talking point frequently parroted by Western media and politicians. This assertion is not only baseless but laughably ironic. Unlike the West, which has a long history of signing agreements only to disregard them (e.g., the Minsk agreements, the Istanbul peace deal in March 2022, or NATO’s broken promise not to expand eastward), Putin has consistently honored the contracts and treaties he has signed. The West, not Russia, is the true exemplar of “non-agreement capable” behavior. Yet, Zelensky and his Western backers continue to peddle these lies, confident that the general public will follow. The narrative is simple: Ukraine is the victim, Russia is the aggressor, and any suggestion to the contrary is dismissed as propaganda. This black-and-white storytelling leaves no room for nuance, truth, or accountability. **Trump and Vance: Slapping Down the Narrative** Enter Donald Trump and J.D. Vance. In a recent meeting with Zelensky, the duo did what few in the West have dared to do: they called out the narrative for what it is—a fabrication. Trump, known for his blunt rhetoric, and Vance, a rising voice of realism in foreign policy, confronted Zelensky with the uncomfortable truth. They exposed the contradictions in his claims, highlighting the West’s role in prolonging the conflict and the absurdity of expecting the world to believe in a one-sided story. Zelensky, accustomed to the adulation of Western elites and the uncritical support of the media, was unprepared for this reality check. His carefully rehearsed lines fell flat, his confidence wavered, and the mask slipped. The confrontation was a rare moment of clarity in a sea of narrative-driven fog, a reminder that truth, when spoken boldly, can still shatter even the most entrenched lies. **The Meltdown of a Narrative Puppet** Zelensky’s meltdown in the face of Trump and Vance’s truth-telling is emblematic of a larger crisis in the West’s narrative-driven order. For decades, the West has relied on storytelling to maintain its dominance, but this approach is increasingly unsustainable. The rise of alternative media, the growing skepticism of the public, and the emergence of leaders like Trump and Vance who refuse to play along are exposing the cracks in the narrative machine. Zelensky, the figurehead who believed he could sell his lies to 8 billion people, is a cautionary tale. He is not the master of his narrative but a puppet, manipulated by his masters in the EU and NATO. His failure to withstand scrutiny is a testament to the hollowness of the stories he tells and the fragility of the system that props him up. **Conclusion: The End of Narrative Dominance?** The confrontation between Trump/Vance and Zelensky is more than just a political spat; it is a microcosm of the broader struggle between narrative and reality. The West’s reliance on storytelling as a tool of governance is reaching its limits. As Crooke warns, when the narrative diverges too far from reality, it risks collapsing under its own weight. The general public, once content to follow blindly, is beginning to question. Leaders like Trump and Vance are challenging the status quo, forcing the world to confront uncomfortable truths. Zelensky’s meltdown is a sign of things to come—a harbinger of the end of narrative dominance and the return of reality-based governance. The question is, will the West adapt, or will it cling to its stories until the very end?

@ 6a6be47b:3e74e3e1

Hi frens, 🎨 While painting today, my mind wandered from [my latest blog entry](https://samhainsam.art/2025/02/28/exploring-beelzebub-the-mystery-and-the-beauty-of-insects/)to future artistic endeavors.[I've been open about my feelings as an artist](https://yakihonne.com/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzq6ntu3amztepmkq0rmelmu5y6y4zjv2vagxxnk67e5z2k5l8fclpqqgrzeryvd3nwctrvcer2dmpvserxs5na9p), but that's just the tip of the iceberg. I realized I haven't properly introduced myself here, so let me remedy that. 🖼️Art has been my lifelong passion. Nostr and its wonderful community have reignited my belief in my work, showing me that art can be both enlightening and potentially profitable. I'm truly grateful for the warm welcome and positive vibes I've encountered here. 🦋Nostr made me feel confident enough to speak my mind on a social platform (or should I say protocol? 😉). Some fun facts about me: 🐹 I'm a "golly jolly" kind of gal who's always curious about the world and seeking answers. 🐹I'm a sunscreen enthusiast in summer (but in winter, I'm buried under so many layers, I practically double in size!) 🐹Birdwatching is a hobby of mine. I've researched and painted some cool birds like [shoebills](https://samhainsam.art/2024/06/25/shoebill-%f0%9f%90%a6/) and [bearded vultures](https://samhainsam.art/2024/07/04/bearded-vulture-%f0%9f%90%a6/). (Any suggestions for my next avian subject?) 🩷I'm truly happy to be here and grateful for each day. My goal is to spread joy through my art and interactions. Thanks for being part of this journey with me! In your personal experience, how has it been discovering Nostr wether you're an artist or not? What's you favorite part of your journey so far? Godspeed 🚀 

@ 4fe4a528:3ff6bf06

Technology adoption has been hard for a lot of people to understand. Tucker this week finally understood why gold became money. He finally understood that hard money drives out money that isn’t scarce. Still, most people don’t store their wealth in the hardest money ever made—Bitcoin. Yes, Bitcoin went down 20-25% this week. How can the scarcest asset vary that much? Humans tend toward emotion—fear or greed. I am no exception, but if you have a plan or have been here before, you can control your emotion. Let me illustrate. I installed a camera on the barn this week so I could save time checking on the cows. Lo and behold, the WiFi wasn’t strong enough, so I bought two outdoor access points. Whenever I would add them to the house, the WiFi mesh system would cause my internet to go down on the main computer. Fear of losing internet was causing me to consider taking a $100 write-off on my idea of saving time. Because I have solved networking issues before, I had the courage to be greedy and keep working at it. I know a lot of people would give up on technology and throw their cell phone in the snowbank - my neighbor does that. He usually comes back for it because he likes communication. Is a cell phone a feature or a bug? Answer… both. What Satoshi solved 16 years ago was how to move 1s and 0s to different devices and keep them secure. What Vint Cerf solved 35 years ago was how to route 1s and 0s and have the packets arrive at the intended destination. Both Bitcoin and the Internet rely on people not throwing their cell phone in the snowbank. This last drawdown in Bitcoin has given me hope that people will start to understand technology better and give up on Sol and Eth. Finally, people are realizing that printing digital coins doesn’t help people, just like printing Canadian dollars doesn’t help the average Canadian get ahead. It could be that Sam Bankman-Fried is in jail, but I think it has more to do with people starting to get comfortable with technology. https://youtu.be/fxWZO0FEQ1g

@ a95c6243:d345522c

*Ständige Lügen und Unterstellungen, permanent falsche Fürsorge* *\ können Bausteine von emotionaler Manipulation sein. Mit dem Zweck,* *\ Macht und Kontrolle über eine andere Person auszuüben.* *\ Apotheken Umschau* &#x20; **Irgendetwas muss passiert sein: «Gaslighting» ist gerade Thema** in vielen Medien. Heute bin ich nach längerer Zeit mal wieder über dieses Stichwort gestolpert. Das war in einem [Artikel](https://norberthaering.de/propaganda-zensur/dwd-referenzperiode/) von Norbert Häring über Manipulationen des Deutschen Wetterdienstes (DWD). In diesem Fall ging es um eine Pressemitteilung vom Donnerstag zum «viel zu warmen» Winter 2024/25. **Häring wirft der Behörde vor, dreist zu lügen und Dinge auszulassen,** um die Klimaangst wach zu halten. Was der Leser beim DWD nicht erfahre, sei, dass dieser Winter kälter als die drei vorangegangenen und kälter als der Durchschnitt der letzten zehn Jahre gewesen sei. Stattdessen werde der falsche Eindruck vermittelt, es würde ungebremst immer wärmer. **Wem also der zu Ende gehende Winter eher kalt vorgekommen sein sollte,** mit dessen Empfinden stimme wohl etwas nicht. Das jedenfalls wolle der DWD uns einreden, so der Wirtschaftsjournalist. Und damit sind wir beim Thema Gaslighting. **Als** **[Gaslighting](https://bayern-gegen-gewalt.de/gewalt-infos-und-einblicke/formen-von-gewalt/psychische-gewalt/gaslighting/)** **wird eine Form psychischer Manipulation bezeichnet,** mit der die Opfer desorientiert und zutiefst verunsichert werden, indem ihre eigene Wahrnehmung als falsch bezeichnet wird. Der Prozess führt zu Angst und Realitätsverzerrung sowie zur Zerstörung des Selbstbewusstseins. Die Bezeichnung kommt von dem britischen Theaterstück «Gas Light» aus dem Jahr 1938, in dem ein Mann mit grausamen Psychotricks seine Frau in den Wahnsinn treibt. **Damit Gaslighting funktioniert, muss das Opfer dem Täter vertrauen.** Oft wird solcher Psychoterror daher im privaten oder familiären Umfeld beschrieben, ebenso wie am Arbeitsplatz. Jedoch eignen sich die Prinzipien auch perfekt zur Manipulation der Massen. Vermeintliche Autoritäten wie Ärzte und Wissenschaftler, oder «der fürsorgliche Staat» und Institutionen wie die UNO oder die WHO wollen uns doch nichts Böses. Auch Staatsmedien, Faktenchecker und diverse NGOs wurden zu «vertrauenswürdigen Quellen» erklärt. Das hat seine Wirkung. **Warum das Thema Gaslighting derzeit scheinbar so populär ist,** vermag ich nicht zu sagen. Es sind aber gerade in den letzten Tagen und Wochen auffällig viele Artikel dazu erschienen, und zwar nicht nur von Psychologen. Die *Frankfurter Rundschau* hat gleich mehrere publiziert, und [Anwälte](https://www.anwalt.de/rechtstipps/gaslighting-beispiele-anzeichen-strafbarkeit-212449.html) interessieren sich dafür offenbar genauso wie Apotheker. **Die** ***Apotheken Umschau*** **machte sogar auf** **[«Medical Gaslighting»](https://archive.is/Wx5YM)** **aufmerksam.** Davon spreche man, wenn Mediziner Symptome nicht ernst nähmen oder wenn ein gesundheitliches Problem vom behandelnden Arzt «schnöde heruntergespielt» oder abgetan würde. Kommt Ihnen das auch irgendwie bekannt vor? Der Begriff sei allerdings irreführend, da er eine manipulierende Absicht unterstellt, die «nicht gewährleistet» sei. **Apropos Gaslighting: Die noch amtierende deutsche Bundesregierung** [meldete](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/service/newsletter-und-abos/bundesregierung-aktuell/ausgabe-08-2025-februar-28-2336254?view=renderNewsletterHtml) heute, es gelte, «weiter \[sic!] gemeinsam daran zu arbeiten, einen gerechten und dauerhaften Frieden für die Ukraine zu erreichen». Die Ukraine, wo sich am Montag «der völkerrechtswidrige Angriffskrieg zum dritten Mal jährte», [verteidige](https://transition-news.org/wikileaks-der-westen-wusste-dass-ein-nato-beitritt-der-ukraine-riskant-war) ihr Land und «unsere gemeinsamen Werte». **Merken Sie etwas? Das Demokratieverständnis mag ja tatsächlich** inzwischen in beiden Ländern ähnlich traurig sein. Bezüglich Friedensbemühungen ist meine Wahrnehmung jedoch eine andere. Das muss an meinem Gedächtnis liegen. *** Dieser Beitrag ist zuerst auf ***[Transition News](https://transition-news.org/bitte-nicht-von-gaslichtern-irritieren-lassen)*** erschienen.

@ 04c195f1:3329a1da

***Yesterday's chaotic Oval Office meeting between Trump, Vance, and Zelensky exposes a harsh truth: Europe can no longer depend on American protection. The time has come for Europe to reclaim its sovereignty and rebuild as an independent power.*** ## A Diplomatic Theater With No Happy Ending Yesterday's chaotic scenes in the Oval Office revealed more than just diplomatic tension—they exposed the fundamental weakness of Europe's strategic position. As President Trump, Vice President Vance, and President Zelensky engaged in their uncomfortable public spectacle, one truth became painfully clear: Europe can no longer rely on American protection. The awkward press conference featured about 40 minutes of relative calm before descending into 10 minutes of complete chaos. This final meltdown was likely never intended to produce meaningful results. Each participant appeared to be performing for different audiences—Trump and Vance signaling to their base, Zelensky demonstrating resolve to European allies. Without concrete security guarantees, any agreement would be meaningless for Ukraine, a reality all parties surely understood beforehand. When Vance spoke of diplomacy as a "new strategy"—ignoring numerous failed diplomatic initiatives—he crossed a line that provoked Zelensky's visible frustration. The subsequent breakdown wasn't merely a failure of diplomatic protocol but the public collapse of a relationship Europe has staked its security upon. ## The Price of Misguided Priorities This moment of crisis presents an opportunity if European nations are willing to confront uncomfortable realities. The time has come for Europe to emerge as a third global power, independent from both Eastern and Western influence. However, the path forward requires acknowledging our current weaknesses. European leadership has squandered decades pursuing ideological luxuries while our industrial and military capabilities have atrophied. While obsessing over multicultural social engineering, progressive identity politics, and globalist agendas, we've neglected the fundamental responsibilities of sovereign nations: securing borders, building defensive capabilities, and fostering national cohesion. The defense of European nations begins with domestic policy. A society divided against itself cannot stand firm in the face of external threats. This principle applies whether discussing Sweden's defense posture or the broader European security architecture. Photo by [Christian Lue](https://english.daneriksson.com/p/true) on [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/) ## Reclaiming National Identity and Purpose To rebuild our defensive capabilities, we must first address the internal fragmentation deliberately cultivated across the political spectrum. The active policies of societal division pursued with increasing fervor since the latter half of the 20th century have undermined the very foundations of national identity and common purpose. Strengthening national defense requires citizens who understand their shared heritage and believe their nation is worth defending. In practical terms, this means confronting difficult questions about immigration, assimilation, and the presence of potential fifth-column elements within our societies. Nations with higher social cohesion demonstrate greater willingness to defend their collective interests. The current crisis in Ukraine and the uncertain American commitment should serve as a wake-up call. European nations must rapidly rebuild industrial capacity, military strength, and most importantly, a sense of shared purpose. This demands breaking free from the ideological constraints that have guided European politics for generations. Although European establishment politicians show little appetite for such fundamental reassessment, events are accelerating rapidly. The dramatic scenes in Washington should catalyze serious reflection across European capitals. We cannot hold our breath waiting for political leadership to regain sense—we must push the conversation forward ourselves. Europe stands at a crossroads. We can continue our dangerous dependence on unreliable partners, or we can reclaim our sovereignty and rebuild our strength. The choice should be obvious, but making it requires courage our leaders have thus far failed to demonstrate. ■

@ fd78c37f:a0ec0833

**Author**: Zhengyu Qian, Eric Zhang **Original Link**: https://research.dorahacks.io/2025/02/22/maci-mailbox/ We are not reinventing email. Even a glance at the TOC of [IETF RFC 5322](https://datatracker.ietf.org/doc/html/rfc5322) reveals: email is long-standing and well-established, but far from simple. This is just one piece of the puzzle in today’s email system. What we would like to do first is to review the essence of message delivery. ## Proto-mail A typical process of message delivery can be broken down into three critical components: 1. Individuals intending to exchange messages—referred to as the **users**. 2. An intermediary, or **agent**, that facilitates the delivery. 3. The **message** itself.  Message delivery takes place when the sender hands over the message (e.g., a written note) to an agent—a person (a messenger), a device (a beacon), or an institution (a post office). The agent then dispatches the message to the recipient. Though direct communication, such as face-to-face conversation, falls outside the scope of this context. ## The Protocol of MACI Mailbox The MACI Mailbox is an encryption-based mailing protocol that builds directly on the three components above, with modifications and extensions.  1. The **user** consists of two parts: - An **account**, typically with a publicly visible **mailing address**. - A **keypair**(a private key and its corresponding public key), which works its magic in encrypted communication. 2. The **agent** has a similar structure: - An **account**. - A **keypair**. 3. The message is simple, consisting of two fields: - **Subject**. - **Body**. The following outlines the flow of message delivery in the MACI Mailbox protocol. The process of sending a message is addressed first.  1. The sender writes a **message**. 2. The **agent** encrypts the message **using its public key**, posts and stores it in a shared public database (e.g. a blockchain, Nostr), and assigns it a queryable **ID**. 3. The sender wraps the **ID** of encrypted message together with the **agent’s private key**, encrypts them using the **recipient’s public key**, and broadcasts the resulting encrypted data to a public space. Yes, **broadcasts it publicly**—feeling like encrypted radio communication yet? In this process, asymmetric encryption is introduced twice, achieving something valuable: the decoupling of message storage from broadcast. This has at least two key implications: 1. It’s highly flexible to choose the infrastructures for encrypted message **posting and storage** as well as **broadcasting** facilities—both of which are **modular, replaceable, and trustless**. 2. Storage and broadcast infrastructures can be separately tailored to meet specific requirements. Typically: - Message storage is expected to be inexpensive, reliable, and scalable. - Broadcast infrastructure can be customized to fit the varying user ecosystems or needs.  Receiving a message is basically the reverse process: 1. The recipient indexes their mail in the broadcast space, decrypts it with **their own private key** (guaranteed by the principles of asymmetric encryption), and retrieves both the **ID of encrypted message** (storage address) and **the agent’s private key** (which, as you may recall, was bundled with the message ID before broadcast). 2. With the message ID, the recipient fetches the encrypted message from storage and decrypts it using the agent’s private key to obtain the plaintext message. 3. Tada. It can be observed that the agent’s role described above is highly procedural, lending itself to a modular and replaceable design. This enables significant flexibility in the implementation of MACI Mailbox services and applications. ## Vota-Nostr Mailbox: basic architecture The Vota-Nostr Mailbox is the first implementation of the Protocol by Dora Factory, consisting of several core modules: - **A smart contract** deployed on [Dora Vota](https://research.dorahacks.io/2023/07/31/vota/) appchain to handle the broadcasting of messages. - [Nostr relays](https://nostr.com/relays), used for publishing and storing encrypted messages. - **An indexer service** to assist users in locating relevant messages, such as those sent to or from themselves. - **A web app** as the interface for interacting with the Vota-Nostr Mailbox.   First, user accounts are implemented as on-chain accounts of Dora Vota (represented as a wallet address) paired with a public/private [ECC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliptic-curve_cryptography) keypair. Message content is kept simple as plain-text strings, with the flexibility to upgrade it later (Everybody Loves Rich Text). Next, let’s push the boundaries for the agent. Ideally, users shouldn’t have to learn how to interact with it actively—think about fully automated agents. Or picture a stylish scene from *[The Day of the Jackal](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt24053860/)*: [Eddie Redmayne](https://www.imdb.com/name/nm1519666/) casually discarding a phone after each call. Thus, a disposable, one-time auto agent is designed for each mail flow. This agent consists of a randomly generated ECC keypair and a temporarily created Nostr account (essentially another keypair: [npub/nsec](https://nostr.com/get-started#understanding-keys)). ## Vota-Nostr Mailbox: communication workflow In [Vota-Nostr implementation](https://vota.dorafactory.org/mailbox) of MACI Mailbox Protocol, the communication flow is as follows. Both the encryption/decryption of message content and the broadcast rely on elliptic-curve cryptography.   To enhance user experience, a “Sent Messages” feature has been implemented, allowing senders to index, decrypt, and review their sent messages. In general, with asymmetric encryption, only the recipient’s private key can decrypt the encrypted content. Technically, there are cryptographic methods to enable mutual decryption by both sender and recipient. For simplicity at this stage, this issue is addressed by creating **a duplicate of each broadcast data** (on Dora Vota appchain). This duplicate is encrypted using the sender’s own public key, allowing the sender to decrypt it with their private key. Since the Protocol decouples the storage of encrypted message from the broadcast data, this duplication doesn’t significantly increase the payload on the broadcast infrastructure. Only the **message ID** and the **agent’s private key** need to be processed as duplicates, both of which are compact and independent of the actual message size (the length of your address line and the size of your front door key don’t depend on the dimensions of your house). Below outlines the entire communication process: 1. The sender encrypts their message using the **agent’s one-time public key** and publishes it to Nostr relay(s) via the **agent’s one-time Nostr account**, obtaining the encrypted message’s ID (i.e., **Nostr event ID**). 2. The sender wraps the encrypted message ID along with the **agent’s one-time private key**, encrypts them using the **recipient’s public key**, and broadcasts the resulting encrypted data to the appchain via **their own Dora Vota account**. This process leverages wallet apps/extensions for transaction submission and the smart contract for processing, closely resembling how users typically interact with blockchains and dapps. 3. Once the on-chain transaction is processed, the encrypted data is broadcast on Dora Vota. Both the sender and the recipient can retrieve the data at any time via the **Mailbox Indexer**. 4. The recipient decrypts the broadcast encrypted data using **their own private key**, finding the **Nostr event ID** and the corresponding decryption key (**one-time agent private key**). They then fetch the encrypted message from Nostr relay(s) by the ID and decrypt it with the one-time private key. 5. The sender can follow a nearly identical process to fetch and decrypt their own duplicate, enabling them to review sent messages. ## **Acknowledgements** The MACI Mailbox protocol was conceived during a Dora Factory developer meeting in Kyoto, March 2024. Eric Zhang supported its implementation in October as a tool to facilitate communications and campaigns in MACI decentralized governance. Shrey Khater and Divyansh Joshi contributed to an MVP of the Vota-Nostr implementation. The protocol was officially integrated with Dora Vota appchain as well as its frontend with efforts from Zhengyu Qian, Dennis Tang, and Vegebun.

@ da0b9bc3:4e30a4a9

Hello Stackers! Welcome on into the ~Music Corner of the Saloon! A place where we Talk Music. Share Tracks. Zap Sats. So stay a while and listen. 🚨Don't forget to check out the pinned items in the territory homepage! You can always find the latest weeklies there!🚨 🚨Subscribe to the territory to ensure you never miss a post! 🚨 originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/900550

@ 95cb4330:96db706c

Embracing The Principle of Asymmetric Bets Embracing the principle of asymmetric bets, as practiced by visionaries like Jeff Bezos and Peter Thiel, involves seeking opportunities where the potential gains far outweigh the possible losses. This strategy enables bold decision-making while minimizing exposure to significant failures. --- ## Understanding Asymmetric Bets - **Definition:** An asymmetric bet is a strategic decision where the potential upside is substantially greater than the downside risk. This approach allows individuals and organizations to pursue high-reward opportunities without jeopardizing overall stability. --- ## Examples in Practice - **Jeff Bezos and Amazon Web Services (AWS):** Bezos invested in AWS when cloud computing was still emerging. The potential upside—a trillion-dollar business—vastly outweighed the moderate research and development costs, exemplifying an asymmetric bet. - **Peter Thiel's Investment in Facebook:** Thiel's early $500,000 investment in Facebook transformed into a multi-billion-dollar return, showcasing the immense potential of asymmetric bets in venture capital. --- ## Implementing Asymmetric Bets 1. **Identify Opportunities with High Upside and Low Downside:** Seek situations where the potential benefits are disproportionately higher than the risks involved. 2. **Evaluate the Risk-to-Reward Ratio:** Assess scenarios where even a small probability of success can lead to substantial rewards, justifying the risk taken. 3. **Diversify Bets:** Spread resources across multiple asymmetric opportunities to increase the likelihood of significant returns while mitigating individual risks. --- ## Action Step Identify a decision or project where the potential upside is considerable and the downside is limited. Take action on this opportunity today, leveraging the principle of asymmetric bets to maximize success while minimizing risk. --- By adopting this mindset, you position yourself to capitalize on transformative opportunities that can lead to substantial growth and innovation. ---

@ b4403b24:83542d4e

https://x.com/JacquiHeinrich/status/1895547519117246611 originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/900278

@ 88cc134b:5ae99079

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Morbi eget mi euismod, porta enim at, congue erat. **Vivamus in ante leo. Vestibulum feugiat**, mauris a faucibus ultrices, enim massa bibendum magna, eu consequat leo mi eu velit. Mauris et magna rhoncus, ornare justo a, dictum sapien. Maecenas mattis rhoncus lacus ac lacinia*. Donec pulvinar finibus rutrum. Cras quis sapien lectus.* Ut odio est, condimentum vel consectetur at, elementum et neque. Donec dignissim metus eu nisi vestibulum vehicula. Maecenas vel dictum leo. Ut nisi lorem, tempor nec enim a, porta elementum augue. Vestibulum dictum ex at magna viverra, a tincidunt sem tempor. Fusce sit amet bibendum dui. Pellentesque congue tempus purus eu faucibus. Suspendisse non ex nunc. Quisque posuere euismod dui eget euismod. Praesent convallis turpis ac tellus gravida suscipit. Sed nulla lorem, auctor at ornare vel, tristique sit amet metus. Nullam id tristique arcu. Morbi sit amet velit nisi. Quisque quis est ut ex tempus lobortis in ut turpis. Sed eu diam ut leo suscipit dapibus nec at nisi. Etiam vel vulputate turpis. Suspendisse non ligula finibus, vestibulum magna ac, semper sapien. Integer dignissim dolor eros. Morbi nisl arcu, tincidunt non libero luctus, sagittis tempor urna. Duis sagittis nisi sed sagittis iaculis. Donec neque mi, fermentum nec suscipit ac, scelerisque vitae augue. Pellentesque id felis pharetra urna ornare congue ac quis augue. In posuere vulputate libero at pulvinar. Integer tincidunt justo nec cursus varius. Pellentesque habitant morbi tristique senectus et netus et malesuada fames ac turpis egestas. Donec fringilla tellus nibh, at feugiat risus vulputate in. Nulla commodo sem porttitor erat sodales, eu tincidunt nibh vulputate. Sed non massa volutpat nibh venenatis laoreet. Etiam arcu lectus, placerat sed porta et, aliquet sagittis elit. Integer pharetra nunc eget lacus vehicula bibendum. Fusce non libero interdum, vulputate mi a, ornare justo. Sed fermentum sapien lacus, et iaculis est pharetra a. Cras elementum magna velit, et tempor nibh egestas sed. Cras sollicitudin maximus ligula sit amet interdum. Aenean ullamcorper congue tincidunt. Aliquam condimentum, nisl quis ullamcorper facilisis, urna est ultricies lorem, quis dapibus velit quam eu ante. Integer vulputate feugiat molestie. Donec vestibulum eros eu velit gravida accumsan. Phasellus elementum arcu non ultricies rutrum. Morbi ac rhoncus ante. Maecenas scelerisque scelerisque nibh, ac lobortis tellus aliquam quis. Proin mi tellus, fringilla et hendrerit id, tincidunt nec turpis. Aenean ultrices magna iaculis felis tincidunt, eu molestie lorem cursus. Sed est eros, ultricies ut ornare non, suscipit vitae dui. Nunc nec rhoncus est. Aliquam at laoreet sapien, in ornare turpis. Morbi in quam at mi elementum vulputate. Donec sed sagittis purus. Morbi rutrum non mi vitae hendrerit. Nulla auctor ante lorem, eget scelerisque nunc hendrerit ornare.

@ 88cc134b:5ae99079

@ b581c912:7df8270f

Fui abordado por um colega e ele me falou de forma bastante enérgica sobre o projeto Pi Network, após uma breve conversa resolvi dar crédito e estudar sobre a solução proposta. Tentei ser imparcial e fui direto no site “oficial” (🤔) onde encontrei dois Whitepapers (referência 1), um de 2019 e outro de 2021. Decidi então fazer a leitura pela documentação oficial, tentar não me influenciar mais do que já sou influenciado (como um Bitcoiner Maximlista que acho que sou). Infelizmente não tive condições de terminar os dois documentos, no capítulo “Pi – Token Supply” de 2019 já deixa claro de forma matemática que Pi Network é uma pirâmide, e como até aquele momento não consegui resposta se o processo de recompensa da rede tinha sido atualizada, eu decidi não gastar mais meu tempo de vida estudando sobre o protocolo.\ \ Deixo aqui as anotações que fiz até onde tive condições de ler. Por favor, sinta-se à vontade para contra-argumentar caso você tenha entendido o protocolo de forma diferente, ou assim como Satoshi “If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry.”. De forma bastante resumida, esta é minha conclusão: Pi Network é uma pirâmide declarada na sua própria documentação oficial. Infelizmente, mais uma shitcoin. Vende a ideia de descentralização e justiça, mas não tem nada descentralizado e muito menos justa, usando da falácia argumentativa e frases de efeito tenta vender sua pirâmide financeira. (OBS: os primeiros capítulos do Whitepaper de 2019 são concentrados em atacar o Bitcoin e seu ambiente, mas sem a coragem de pelo menos descrever corretamente como o ambiente funciona. Soltando verdades pela metade leva o leitor a achar que o ambiente do Bitcoin é malicioso e precisa de ‘melhorias’) 1. Introduction: Why cryptocurrencies matter - Traz alguns argumentos para validar a existência do Pi Network, cita falhas do sistema fia, mas não citou o maior problema: Inflação e/ou impressão de dinheiro; 2. Securing Distributed Ledgers (Mining) - “*This process (Bitcoin mining) is very secure, but it demands enormous computing power and energy consumption as users essentially “burn money” to solve the computational puzzle that earns them more Bitcoin. The burn-to-reward ratio is so punitive that it is always in Validators’ self-interest to post honest transactions to the Bitcoin record.*” - Aqui é descrito como se a base da “Prova de Trabalho” fosse punitiva “burn-to-reward”, quando na verdade  é completamente o contrário: meritocracia total. Trabalhe de forma justa, com dados reais, não tente burlar o sistema e você será recompensado, não importa quem você é ou de onde você vem. Seja justo, trabalhe e seja recompensado. 3. Problem: Centralization of power and money put 1st Generation Cryptocurrencies out of reach - O capítulo inteiro é focado em criticar o PoW, sendo que PoW + ”algoritmo de consenso” é a base da solução do problema do “General Bizantino” em um sistema descentralizado. Usando argumentos de ‘excesso de consumo de energia’ e outros para causar desprezo à tecnologia. - O Bitcoin é o mercado mundial que mais usa energia renovável. Em 2022 tinha um total de 56% de toda a rede de mineração rodando sobre energias renováveis (2). No Brasil temos algumas empresas que atuam em reutilização de energia renovável para mineração de Bitcoin (3). 4. A Simplified Introduction To Consensus Algorithms - A explicação desse capítulo ficou MUITO vago, deixando a entender que o que o minerador coloca no bloco é válido como dado real. Quando na realidade isso não é verdade: o minerador (Mining Node) realmente precisa fazer cálculos computacionais e quem achar o bloco ganha o direito de enviar essa informação para os Nós (“validation” nodes, se é que eu posso chamá-los assim), então os Nós é que vão decidir de forma descentralizada se aquele bloco é válido ou não, caso não seja, recusando o bloco e aceitando o próximo bloco válido. 5. A Simplified Introduction To Stellar Consensus Protocol - Este capítulo já começa reforçando a falácia anterior “Pi uses the other type of consensus algorithms”, tentando reforçar que o mecanismo de consenso do Bitcoin é inseguro ou custoso, sendo que no capítulo anterior eles misturaram a prova de trabalho (mineração) com a validação dos blocos, que é realmente o “consensus algorithms”, ou seja, o argumento utilizado aqui é nulo, não fazendo sentido além do de tentar levar o leitor a menosprezar a solução do Bitcoin. - “*One major criticism of BFT (Byzantine Fault Tolerance) is that it has a centralization point: because voting is involved, the set of nodes participating in the voting “quorum” are centrally determined by the creator of the system in its beginning.*” 1. Não sei qual BFT exatamente eles estão criticando aqui, mas certamente não é o Bitcoin. Os Nós (“validation” nodes) não são centralmente especificados, qualquer um pode entrar como um nós validador e fazer parte da validação dos blocos, rejeitando aqueles que considera não verdadeiros por N motivos. O sistema de consenso do Bitcoin é feito por %, se 51% dos nós validadores aceitam o bloco (minerado pelo nó minerador) aquele bloco é então visto como válido. Se 51% rejeitam, aquele bloco é rejeitado por toda a rede. 6. Pi’s Adaptations to Stellar Consensus Protocol (SCP) - “*For example, once a week, the stellar network is using it to compute inflation on the stellar network and allocate the newly minted tokens proportionally to all stellar coin holders (Stellar’s coin is called lumens). In a similar manner, the Pi network employs SCP once a day to compute the network-wide new Pi distribution across all Pi miners (pioneers, contributors, ambassadors, nodes) who actively participated in any given day. In other words, Pi mining rewards are computed only once daily and not on every block of the blockchain.*”  1. Aqui está deixando claro a centralização da recompensa? Não ficou muito claro, mas me parece que a recompensa é mantida em um wallet temporária (controlada por quem? pelo ambiente? Isso quer dizer que a equipe de desenvolvimento controla a wallet?) e distribuída no fim do dia. Qual o nível de transparência desse processo? É possível analisar tudo capital armazenado, de onde veio, para onde está indo, quanto foi para cada ‘mão’?. - “*Mining pools are not only points of centralization, but also their operators get cuts reducing the amount going to individual miners.  In Pi, there is no need for mining pools, since once a day everyone who contributed get a meritocratic distribution of new Pi.*”  1. Aqui reforça a solução centralizada que eles mesmo acabaram de criticar. Se meus fundos vão ficar na mão da “Pi Network” que seja 1 dia apenas, então eles estão centralizando os incentivos. 7. Pi Economic Model: Balancing Scarcity and Access - Inverted Means Uneven 1. Bem vindo à meritocracia, bem vindo à prova de trabalho, bem vindo à vida real. Quem viu a qualidade e futuro na solução XYZ e gastou seu próprio tempo entendendo, aprendendo e se especializando, consequentemente ganha mais. Isso não quer dizer que quem está entrando agora não ganhe ou esteja “burning more energy for less bitcoin”, eles entram agora sabendo que a recompensa é menor e que o trabalho está mais difícil, mas mesmo assim acreditam no potencial da solução. - Hoarding Inhibits Use As A Medium Of Exchange 1. É necessário entender a história do dinheiro. Qualquer dinheiro precisa primeiro passar pelo processo de “reserva de valor” <https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:1400/1\*7-2w9CZn8yVeO31SmBQqow.png>  2. Abstrairei aqui as camadas 2: Lightning, LIquid, Ark e etc, que já são usadas há alguns anos justamente para resolver o problema de “apenas reserva de valor e não moeda de troca” 8. The Pi Economic Model - Aqui temos um grande problema: levando em consideração que os fundos diários serão centralizados em uma ‘carteira temporária’ (isso foi especificado no capítulo “Transaction fees”, sem especificar quem ou o que controla essa carteira) , e unindo isso com a ‘distribuição justa’ e o fato de que eles querem ‘garantir que grandes quantidade de Pi não sejam concentradas em poucas mãos’, me vem a pergunta: quem decide o que é justo? Quem decide a distribuição justa? Quem decide o quanto é “grande quantidade”? 9. Pi – Token Supply - M=∫ f(P), uma função logarítmica decrescente, onde P é a quantidade de participantes. Resumidamente: M paga menos a cada novo integrante na rede - R=(r\*M), onde a distribuição por novo membro acontece com 25% para o indicado (novo membro) 25% para o indicador (o membro que indicou) e 50% distribuído para o resto da rede - D=t\*(M+R), remuneração dos desenvolvedores. Fixando t=25% de cada Pi token gerado - Acredito que a fórmula final pode ser traduzida como: (∫f(P)dx)⋅(1+r)⋅(1+t) - Tendo em vista esta tradução dissertativa do cálculo de “Token Supply”, é possível considerar que Pi Network é uma pirâmide: a recompensa é distribuída entre ‘indicado’ (novo membro), ‘indicador’ (quem indicou), equipe de manutenção da rede e por fim, o resto da rede. Essa recompensa diminui a cada novo membro na rede, forçando todos a continuar introduzindo mais membros (obviamente novos membros são incentivados com mais afinco para essa atividade, ou seja, se não indicarem mais membros, não ganham mais incentivos) - Apesar de existir recompensa através de taxas de transação, essa recompensa traz um grande problema que já foi citado anteriormente: centralização. 10. Outras críticas gratuitas sem nexo(?) - Em vários pontos eles só soltam informações soltas sem contexto tentando direcionar o leitor a uma avaliação falaciosa do ambiente do Bitcoin: - *“While Bitcoin’s process for updating its record is proven (burning energy / money to prove trustworthiness), it is not very user (or planet!) friendly.”* 1. *Utilizando frases de efeito de um problema inexistente para validar a necessidade da solução proposta. Já é comprovado que o Bitcoin não consome energia em excesso, não é um perigo para o meio ambiente, muito pelo contrário.* - “*Moreover, due to Bitcoin’s lack in the safety guarantee, Bitcoin’s blockchain in rare occasions can be overwritten within the first hour. This means that a user of Bitcoin must wait about 1 hour before they can be sure that a transaction is considered final.*” 1. “lack of safety guarantee” leva o leitor a achar que existe um problema de segurança 2. “in rare occasions can be overwritten” se qualquer bloco do Bitcoin for reescrito, então a rede foi hackeada, fim! Não existe forma de reescrever um bloco sem ultrapassar 51% da PoW atual. 11. Stella Core (Stellar Consensus Protocol SCP) - A equipe/gestora inicial são sabiamente conhecidos, vou abstrair toda e qualquer argumentação lógica do pq isso é terrível para o sistema. - Eles fazem questão de deixar tds os responsáveis pelo protocolo conhecidos <https://stellar.org/foundation/team>  - O David Mazières, autor principal do SCP, parece o Vitalik Buterin, criador da shitcoin Ethereum. Isso não deve ser levado como argumento válido! - <https://github.com/stellar/stellar-core/tree/master> - Sim, o protocolo é Open Source, já possui 81 contribuições de pessoas conhecidas e anônimas. Mas o fato de os principais gestores e mantenedores do projeto serem conhecidos cria um grande problema de segurança no protocolo. Em caso de um projeto deste vir a realmente ser útil e financeiramente rentável, basta impor sanções governamentais, processos ‘legais’, prisão ou sequestrar familiares e assim obrigar o protocolo mudar de objetivo/função/código. - Pré-mining(?): vários artigos citam ‘pioneiros’ migrando Pi Coin para a main net, ou seja, induz a ideia de pré-mining? 1. <https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/new-updates/pi-network-coins-62-crash-explainedwhy-it-declined-and-what-it-means-for-crypto-enthusiasts/articleshow/118442880.cms?from=mdr> 2. <https://cointelegraph.com/explained/pi-network-mainnet-launch-what-it-means-for-pioneers> 3. <https://explorepi.info/en/statistic> 4. Mas baseado no capítulo do Whitepaper, o capítulo “Pi – Token Supply“ especifica que o grupo de desenvolvedores (que mantém o protocolo) receberá 25% de todos os tokens, sabendo que o número de participantes é fixado em 100 milhões, podemos deduzir que 25% dos tokens foram pré-minerados para o grupo de desenvolvedores. - Transparência e KYC 1. Apesar da teórica descentralização da mineração, os nós precisam de KYC, possivelmente armazenado em um servidor central do SCP, apesar de não estar claro como o processo deles funciona, qualquer tipo de centralização e obtenção de dados pessoais levanta extrema cautela. - <https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/20211503293737>  - <https://www.reddit.com/r/PiNetwork/comments/1isjnve/issue_with_kyc_on_pi_network_after_reinstalling/> - <https://coindcx.com/blog/crypto-news-global/pi-network-kyc-deadline-and-mainnet-launch/>  - Possui equipe formalmente organizada 1. Equipe de marketing 2. Fundação bem organizada 3. Hierárquica interna \ O artigo se chama "(quase) Análise" justamente por que não tive condições de terminar os dois documentos. \[1\] <https://minepi.com/white-paper/#original-whitepaper>  \[2\] <https://www.bitstamp.net/en-gb/learn/crypto-101/bitcoin-energy/#:\~:text=Bitcoin%20and%20clean%20energy,use%20was%20closer%20to%2040%25>.  \[3\] <https://br.cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-mining-renewable-energy-transition><https://brasilbitcoin.com.br/blog/a-evolucao-da-mineracao-sustentavel-de-bitcoin/><https://www.infomoney.com.br/onde-investir/mineracao-de-bitcoin-pode-ajudar-a-reduzir-energia-ociosa-no-brasil-diz-estudo/>

@ 88cc134b:5ae99079

@ 88cc134b:5ae99079

@ 88cc134b:5ae99079

@ 6f26dd2b:f2824b88

💭 There are some interesting noises about Bitcoin coming from the most unlikely of sources. The Czech central bank says that Bitcoin “should not be lumped together with other crypto assets.” “We central bankers should study it,” says the Bank’s governor. Meanwhile, other central banks are just as keen to distance themselves from Bitcoin. A divide about Bitcoin is opening up in the central banking world!

@ 2e8970de:63345c7a

Atlanta Fed is now projecting Q1 GDP -1.5%. Last week it was +2.3%. 4 weeks ago it was +3.9%  https://x.com/AtlantaFed/status/1895508046215852476 originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/899962

@ 6fac7d89:9d76f561

With the price of Bitcoin having gone significantly up over the past few months (I wrote this about a month ago to post on Stacker News), I imagine interest in acquiring it has gone up as well. As such, I'm here to share with you every method I use to stack sats so that we can all HODL more. While the majority of my experience in regards to phone apps is on Android, some of the apps mentioned may work on iPhone as well (I just got an iOS based device and intend to discover methods on there as well with time) so links provided will be the Play Store or my referral links. Some of the referral messages have included Apple App Store links by default so I've left them in.     Bitcoin Education:   First and foremost, I think that anyone seeking to acquire BTC should learn about it. From how it works, to how to acquire and then store it. As such, this first category I'm covering is for BTC education resources that also reward you with satoshis for your learning progress.   Yzer: Probably my favorite app in this category as it covers more than the others mentioned in greater depth. While the other apps do cover some aspects of the history of money, economics, and investing/finance, this one really delves into it to offer the most robust education of the bunch. I didn't even know about Austrian economics until going through the lessons provided here, and it boasts the most lessons of this category as well. Each section is divided into chapters containing a few lessons and an end-of-chapter quiz, and you have a chance of earning a few satoshis upon completion of a lesson or quiz. Use my referral code to earn an extra 50 sats upon reaching level 2: KAB4ZKD https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=io.wizzer.academy&pcampaignid=web_share   Simple Bitcoin: This app can be breezed through in regards to the lessons offered, allowing you to complete the learning aspect of it pretty quickly. Instead of rewarding sats outright for completion of lessons, this app rewards you with tickets you can spend to spin a wheel to earn small amounts of sats. Where this app shines is that while Yzer stops rewards when all lessons are completed, Simple Bitcoin has a news section where articles from outside sources are summarized, and reading them earns you more tickets. There is a limit to how many articles/day you can read unless you pay for premium, however, which also increases the reward amounts feature on the prize wheel. https://simplebitcoin.page.link/ozJaD6uCaUyscYWy6   Jippi: The newest of the bunch in this category, Jippi is still in its earlier stages of development and thus is the least robust. This one works a little differently as, for the time being, you need to complete all available lessons to earn a lump sum reward of 200 sats. Unlike the other educational apps, this one offers audio lessons to listen to for completion alongside the usual texts to read. While still in development, they plan to release a feature called "Tribe Clash" which they describe as "Pokemon Go for Bitcoin". https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.jippiApp.jippi.prod&pcampaignid=web_share     Buying Bitcoin: So now you know about Bitcoin, but how can you buy some? While there are many crypto exchanges that offer BTC, this bitcoin-only service offers a more robust experience in regards to BTC and the purchase of it.   Swan: While Swan allows you to buy BTC outright or via recurring buy (DCA), it has some additional interesting features and offerings as well. Their learn section allows you to further educate yourself on various aspects of bitcoin and perspectives on it, and they even offer a Bitcoin IRA (either Traditional or Roth) for those interested in such a service. The caveat to the IRA is that you'll be entrusting them with your BTC instead of having full custody and responsibility of it yourself. Use my referral link and get $10 of BTC: https://www.swanbitcoin.com/MF_MOON     Cash-Back: The next category I'll be covering is cash-back options, be they via spending with a certain card or using apps/extensions to earn sats on your purchases. Because if you're going to spend money anyways, why not try to get some of that money back in sats for your stack?   Satsback: This browser extension works pretty similar to other cash-back extensions if you've ever tried them: if you're on a site which the extension offers cash-back on, a pop-up to activate it will appear. Make sure to have adblockers and (possibly) your VPN disabled before activating to ensure you get your reward (I suggest you do this for any similar extensions mentioned below as well). https://satsback.com/register/k524KP0olqLX19Ov   Fold Debit Card: Fold has several options that allow you to earn sats, one of which is the option to buy gift cards to popular retailers like Amazon, Google Play, Home Depot, Bass Pro Shop, AirBnB and more and earn sats back on the purchase. You can earn even more sats back by paying for these gift cards with their debit card, which needs to be pre-loaded to use, but using another card will still earn you sats, albeit at a lower rate. If you do have their debit card and opt for their premium service, Fold+, you can also earn 1.5% back on all purchases made with said card. Fold+ even offers you cash back on paying bills with the account and routing numbers they provide, though you need to hit certain spending thresholds in the prior month to be eligible for this feature. The app also offers a daily spin to earn small amounts of sats, with higher amounts including a whole Bitcoin locked behind the premium membership. Depending on your average spending and bills, this could be worth it though. https://use.foldapp.com/r/3RHW4FUJ   CoinMiles: CoinMiles is like SatsBack in the sense that it lets you earn cash-back in bitcoin via online retailers within their app (similar to Lolli below) with the added feature of cash-back in sats on the purchase of gift cards as well, similar to Fold. Using my referral code will earn us both 5000 sats. https://coinmiles.onelink.me/90Pp/96f2tati   Gemini Credit Card: Crypto exchange Gemini offers a credit card that offers some pretty nice rewards for using it, which has become my go-to method of spending at this point. Allowing you to choose from every crypto asset they offer for your cash-back rewards, you can earn in more than just Bitcoin with this card. The rewards rates are as follows: 4% back on gas at the pump and EV charging, 3% back on dining, 2% back on groceries, and 1% back on everything else. They also have "Merchant Reward Offers" in which they offer a higher rate in cash back on top of the default rate for the category the merchant falls under, I've gotten a total of 8% back at a local brewery using this as it automatically applies if you use the card at said locations. Rewards are issued and credited to your Gemini accounts instantly upon making said purchase. The one issue I take with the exchange is that without lightning integration, BTC withdrawal fees can get steep. As a result, I opt to earn in another asset with lower withdrawal fees and swap said asset for BTC via an external swapping service. If you choose to purchase assets directly via the exchange as well, using my referral link can earn you referral rewards that scale with how much crypto you purchase with them: https://www.gemini.com/share/wwm6w8a3e   Lolli: Boasting both an app and a browser extension, Lolli offers not only cash-back similar to SatsBack, but also card boosts, which reward you for paying with a linked credit or debit card in stores they offer. Simply activate the boost before paying with your linked card to earn cash-back in sats, or when shopping online, activate cash back via a pop-up from the browser extension or clicking the retailer within the app to be directed to their site. Similar to Fold, the app features a daily way to earn small amounts of sats. https://lolli.com/share/T2r2NYSr7A   Bitcoin Company Rewards: Another app that allows you to buy gift cards and earn sats back on the purchase, this one has the standout option of offering Visa gift cards within the US to earn a small amount of sats back on, among many other card offerings. Use my referral code to earn 1000 sats to start. Referral Code: O30WN3 https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.tbtc_app&pcampaignid=web_share     Social Media: These next two are, in my opinion, the future of social media, and you can earn on them too!   Stacker News: Reddit meets Hacker News on this site, which encourages quality content through the implementation of the lightning network and satoshis. You don't have to be signed up to browse and read content on here, but you should be, and you should use my referral link to do so! https://stacker.news/r/MF_MOON   Nostr: This one can be a little tougher to describe, but I'll do my best. Nostr is a social media platform that operates on an open-source protocol that supports of variety of applications or "clients" utilizing a unique public and private key pair. Connections can be maintained across clients, which are often made to emulate the more well-known social media services out there. It can be daunting to get into at first, and requires some involvement as there are no built-in algorithms (though devs are starting to provide ways to implement some for discoverability) but it boasts a great community. Users can "zap" each other sats for content they like, and it's integrated with a number of other services at this point including Fountain and Wavlake (see below). Feel free to follow me on there: https://njump.me/nprofile1qqsglhkx0ey8pdac9ne4w9m4tzglpv2tkl8tvuyc9dzgyrgj07lk42ccwtvy9     Music & Podcasts: Want to earn sats for offering up your ears while doing other things? With these apps, you can enjoy your favorite podcasts and discover new music to earn sats as you listen.   Wavlake: While this app allows you to listen to promoted songs to earn a few sats each day, it also offers you the ability to earn sats on your own music and podcasts that you upload to the service. If people listen to your content via the service and like it, they can send you sats, along with feedback and other comments. There is a flat fee of 10% of all earnings for creators, but it's another way to get your content some exposure and possible earn some sats along the way! https://wavlake.com/     Cloud Mining: The next section I'll be covering is a bit of a dicey topic as some consider it to be scam. While I agree that paying for cloud mining is absolutely a scam, the services I'll be mentioning here offer free options that offer low earnings but only require a daily check in that I do all at once. While I can't tell you how to spend your money, I HIGHLY suggest you avoid spending any money on higher mining rates and spend that money on BTC directly instead.   Bitcoin Mining (Crypto Miner): This one offers you 2 free "mining contracts": 1 that you can claim every 8 hours, and another that serves as a daily check-in reward for checking in consistently, as rewards increase the longer your check-in streak is. Claiming contracts involves simply tapping the corresponding claim button, so I usually claim the 8 hour contract 2 times a day and the daily one when I go to make the 2nd 8 hour claim. Your free earning rate can be increased by watching ads for a temporary boost if you so desire as well. You can get an extra 10% in earnings using my referral link. https://cloudminecrypto.com/?invite_code=R0yMgkOEmEajYvD6 or download the app and add my invite code R0yMgkOEmEajYvD6 directly.   Bitcoin Mining: This one is pretty similar to the previous one, but the free 8 hour mining option can only be activated once per day even if it's finished, unlike the other one. Similar to the prior app, you can watch ads to boost mining rate if you so desire. A nice feature of this one is that it integrates popular lighting wallets including Speed, ZBD and Muun for more seamless withdrawals. My invitation code:5UHLF Appstore: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/id6503180820 Google play: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=bitcoin.minning.com   Ember: While this started off as a regular mining app on which you check in once a day, they've changed their model up a bit recently: you now earn "bonus sats" which must be gambled in games, and the sats earned from said games are then withdrawable. Essentially, you have to convert your earnings via a gambling game of some sort to make them eligible for withdrawal, with the risk of losing them along the way. However, this one earns the most in this category by far, especially if you have a network of friends to mine with as this affords you increased earning rates. Referral Code: MNGCC33WRON https://emberfund.onelink.me/ljTI/l4g18zii?mining_referrer_id=MNGCC33WRON   Games: Here we have games that offer BTC as rewards for paying in small amounts. While they won't earn you a ton, they're nice little time-killers to earn you sats on the side.   ZBD: While technically a lightning wallet, the following app are powered by ZBD wallet, so you'll want to install this to claim your earnings from them. ZBD offers a variety of ways to earn should you choose to dabble in them, from completing surveys to watching videos to trying out games that allow you to earn from play time. The options I personally opt for are their daily poll and playing the next game listed below, as it allows you to earn without a "time-gated" mechanic: if you build up your game to a certain point and will allow you to earn more rapidly than any others I've tried. But see what games they offer and if you find them fun, go for it! Referral Code: PEXE52 https://zbd.link/hcHi/invite?af_sub1=PEXE52   Bitcoin Miner: Being an idle game, this one has a slow start but with a little dedication, can become one of the quickest and most consistent earners in this category. The daily withdrawal limit is unfortunately 330 sats, but when you're maxed out in the current state of the game, you can earn this within 3.5 resets, each of which takes me under minutes to max out with the right strategy and which can be done once every 30 minutes. A one-time purchase of $11.99 will remove all ads, which in my opinion is worth it as you can earn $10/mo in BTC with this game. Using my referral code will net you some of the premium in-game currency to get you started off nicely. Referral Code: 8H44HB Google Play: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.fumbgames.bitcoinminor&pcampaignid=web_share Apple App Store: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/bitcoin-miner-idle-tycoon/id1413770650   THNDR Games: THNDR is a developer that offers a few different games you can play to earn tickets in timed drawings to earn sats, and with your tickets across their games pooling up in a single grand total for the prize drawing when the time comes. I personally find their game "Bitcoin Bay" (a bubble popping game) to be the one that strikes the best balance of fun and earning potential, so its the only one I keep on my phone (I don't want to be playing games on my phone much in my day as it is) but it's really a matter of personal preference which game of theirs you want to play. A nice feature here is that they integrate with lightning wallets including ZBD, Speed, and Strike among others. https://bitcoinbay.thndr.games/r/tdhP   Bling: Bling is a developer that makes a number of "match" games a la Candy Crush that allow you to earn in BTC and some of which offer earnings in other crytpo assets as well. I personally play their game "Sweet Bitcoin" as I find it to be the most visually appealing, but they all appear to earn at the same rate in my experience. The on caveat to these games is that it has an "energy" system similar to Candy Crush which allows you to play a limited number of games as a time-gating mechanism until you "recharge" plays. For this reason, if this is your preferred type of game, you may want to download more than one of their offerings to be able to earn more in less time. Their games offer withdrawals that integrate CoinBase, Lightning options ZBD and Strike, and PayPal (but only in USD for this option). https://bln.gg/1NC-CQX-JDK   Earn While You Browse: This last one is an extension on your browser that allows you to earn sats as you browse the web. Slice: This browser extension adds small ads to sies you visit as you browse, paying you for the respective views. They also offer the option to change your new tab page & default browser for additional earnings, as well as a desktop app to display ads in the bottom right of your screen for even more opportunities to earn. The only downside to this is that your VPN must be turned off, and earnings are made in "slices" which must then be converted to sats. https://addslice.com/?crew=FjVuNqgg     And there you have it folks, every single method I use to accumulate sats/BTC all in one quick read for your convenience. Given that I've recently also joined the iOS eco-system, I intend to explore that side of earning apps as well, so let me know if any of you want me to share what I find after I spend some time with it, or if you recommend any apps I should check out. I also have methods of earning other coins in passive or semi-passive ways that I then convert into BTC and am happy to share if interest is expressed, or even ways I earn USD in such ways. Feel free to follow me on Nostr (link mentioned above) and to share the ways you earn sats on the side that I may have missed. Stay humble and keep stacking!

@ 6260f29f:2ee2fcd4

<div style="position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;height:0;overflow:hidden;max-width:100%;"><video style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;border:0;" controls> <source src="https://plebdevs-bucket.nyc3.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/testr.mp4" type="video/mp4"/> </video></div>

@ ef1744f8:96fbc3fe

y2d7pExtIazBUckiwKfbjrtVgKBmiwO6o1Zof8apH1BW4CUN0CUMwEvfz5ZFcOHeG3O4AA+LlA7wP5R25MtltS+QnweC6oVpxBNFK+Ip/6PzoG8TTcfghm1I9AM23OAmN9AIcB9u9MgVzlUTXMe315FY3tYCTkEabUOFhFtaLramMHbWng9Inlf3sEauHMpr?iv=rW/xc4LIYFoSibLGj8wgcA==

@ ef1744f8:96fbc3fe

UE84clEq0aBc37LbxcNS2GwWdAF4Z+3e96EwrjYQAi/Wzu30jsURRRghiilLY5EWfa/8DJbDy+IYU8hOmdo6lIvYY20PeswXGlFBBy8YFEj0vwrOK7iMIwWTK1ZVFOl6744DYFFP6qqCJGvlsB0uX3kh2i3mtmhd7j8beqxCNu8CCMI9w7B7vSBF1GsnOwQt?iv=T3LDcc5D4rY8JJyN3d886A==

@ ef1744f8:96fbc3fe

soyZKFII5uLafJNWMAu/LFF8aj1ctwCPEudtezgpqpeZxD4dzkecaW9D26kJLtKGjTWhAlNJp0f64Pc3iCyxSAYUtuiiiJqP9mNd0OAEKKpZ1EbakRl8AABIBswE/gOwHuZl7WlycGLHb3/MK0n3RaZ6lhOqqlKXS/r1IjrjtxKeS9FdsBsNjkumjDbubYA/?iv=JVecnqJHmxtDlu2LflTVWA==

@ 54609048:8e22ba03

The recent $1.4 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) agreement between the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and El Salvador marks a significant turning point in the nation's economic and monetary policy. The IMF’s $1.4 billion “lifeline” is a sly Trojan horse, gutting El Salvador’s sovereignty and kneecapping its 2021 Bitcoin law— which represented a bold step toward monetary freedom and economic self-determination— all to prop up the same economic mess it pretends to fix. Brilliant, right? **The IMF’s Colonialist Agenda: A Historical Precedent** In 2021, El Salvador made history by adopting Bitcoin as legal tender, positioning itself at the forefront of financial innovation and offering its citizens an alternative to the U.S. dollar. This move was a bold step toward monetary independence and as a pathway toward individual financial sovereignty by reducing remittance costs for Salvadorans and bypassing the predatory international banking system. By making Bitcoin legal tender, El Salvador was taking steps to free itself from financial colonialism. The IMF’s response to El Salvador’s Bitcoin law was predictably hostile from day one. The institution repeatedly warned of the “risks” associated with Bitcoin, framing it as a threat to financial stability rather than a tool for economic empowerment. Hypocrisy drips from every word—the IMF’s own debt traps and inflationary schemes have fueled the chaos it now “rescues” El Salvador from. The Bretton Woods institution has long been the enforcer of the global financial elite, ensuring that nations remain shackled to the U.S. dollar-dominated system. Through predatory loans and stringent conditions, the IMF perpetuates economic subjugation. Now, facing pressure from these same institutions, El Salvador finds itself caught in the classic IMF trap: accepting loans with strings attached that further cement dependency. This aid package isn't a solution to El Salvador's problems; it's leverage to force compliance with the global banking cartel's agenda. Under the IMF agreement, El Salvador has been compelled to amend its Bitcoin law, revoking Bitcoin's status as legal tender and making its acceptance by businesses voluntary. Additionally, tax obligations must now be settled exclusively in U.S. dollars. This gut-wrenching retreat from its bold Bitcoin rebellion represents a diabolical masterpiece of oppression—stripping citizens of financial freedom and forcing them to forever bow before the fiat gods. **Why the IMF Must Destroy Bitcoin’s Medium of Exchange Use Case ** To understand why the IMF is so determined to undermine Bitcoin’s role as a medium of exchange in El Salvador, it’s important to revisit the fundamental nature of money. The widely cited “three functions” of money—medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account—are often misunderstood. These are not rigid definitions, but empirical observations of how money functions in practice. Money is, first and foremost, the generally accepted medium of exchange. The other functions tend to follow, but they are not exclusive to money. For example, gold can serve as a store of value but is no longer a commonly accepted medium of exchange, and other commodities can also act as units of account, but neither is money unless it is widely accepted as a medium of exchange. Bitcoin’s rise as a store of value (akin to “digital gold”) is not as threatening to the fiat system as its potential to function as a widely accepted medium of exchange. A strong store of value can exist within a system that is still dominated by fiat currencies. If Bitcoin were to become a dominant medium of exchange, it would directly challenge the monopoly of central banks and the control that institutions like the IMF exert over global financial systems. That is why the IMF’s primary goal in El Salvador is not necessarily to stop Bitcoin’s adoption altogether but rather to strip Bitcoin of its medium of exchange function, thus effectively relegating Bitcoin to a speculative asset or store of value. Furthermore, this Bitcoin experiment was the first real-world test of Bitcoin as a medium of exchange at the nation-state level. If it had succeeded, other countries—especially those in the Global South struggling with inflation, currency devaluation, and IMF-imposed austerity—might have followed suit. The IMF couldn't afford to let that happen. By neutralizing Bitcoin's role as money, it ensures that alternative financial systems do not gain traction outside the fiat-based global order. In other words, as long as Bitcoin can't be used freely as a medium of exchange, it cannot fulfill its role as money, and the fiat gods' grip on the global monetary system remains unchallenged—at least for now. **The $1.4 Billion Faustian Bargain** El Salvador’s decision to seek IMF funding is a reflection of the immense pressure it faces from global financial markets and institutions. The country’s high debt levels and weak external buffers are, in large part, a consequence of its integration into a global financial system that prioritizes short-term capital flows over long-term economic stability. By accepting the IMF’s terms, El Salvador has effectively traded its sovereignty for temporary financial relief. What is even more surprising is that El Salvador had an alternative to this Faustian bargain: the issuance of Bitcoin bonds. While initially proposed as a way to finance Bitcoin City and geothermal Bitcoin mining infrastructure, the volcano bonds the country could have raised the $1.4 billion needed without sacrificing its monetary sovereignty. This represents a missed opportunity for El Salvador to bolster its financial independence, attract global capital, and solidify its position as a pioneer in the adoption of decentralized money. Instead of falling back into the IMF’s debt trap—complete with austerity measures, restrictions on Bitcoin use, and financial surveillance—El Salvador could have embraced a Bitcoin-native financial strategy that aligned with its long-term vision of economic independence. So why didn't El Salvador go through with the Bitcoin bond issuance? I don't know, but if I were to speculate, I would say the answer likely lies in political and institutional inertia, coupled with external pressures from the IMF and its allied institutions, or worse. If El Salvador had raised capital through Bitcoin bonds, it would have sent shockwaves through the financial world, proving that a nation-state could operate independently of the IMF. **The Long-Term Consequences for El Salvador** While the IMF’s program may provide short-term relief, its long-term consequences are likely to be detrimental to the Salvadoran people. The emphasis on fiscal consolidation and debt reduction will inevitably lead to cuts in public spending, particularly in areas such as social services and infrastructure. These measures will disproportionately affect the most vulnerable segments of society, exacerbating inequality and undermining the country’s social fabric. Moreover, the IMF’s focus on “strengthening governance and transparency” is a thinly veiled attempt to impose external control over El Salvador’s domestic policies. The requirement to enhance Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) frameworks, while ostensibly aimed at combating illicit activities, will likely be used to surveil and restrict the financial activities of ordinary citizens. This represents a gross violation of individual rights and a further erosion of economic freedom. **Conclusion** The IMF's $1.4 billion arrangement with El Salvador represents not economic salvation but a calculated reassertion of control. By forcing El Salvador to retreat from its Bitcoin initiative, the IMF is protecting the very system that has kept developing nations financially subjugated for decades. For Salvadorans, this means their bold experiment in monetary sovereignty has been curtailed, not by market forces or technological limitations, but by the deliberate intervention of the guardians of the old financial order. Those who believe in true financial freedom must recognize this for what it is: not assistance, but suppression; not aid, but control. The battle for monetary sovereignty continues, and despite this setback, Bitcoin's promise of financial liberation remains as vital as ever—not just for El Salvador, but for all those seeking escape from the oppressive machinery of central banking

@ b2d670de:907f9d4a

# onion-service-nostr-relays A list of nostr relays exposed as onion services. ## The list | Relay name | Description | Onion url | Operator | Payment URL | Payment options | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | nostr.oxtr.dev | Same relay as clearnet relay nostr.oxtr.dev | ws://oxtrdevav64z64yb7x6rjg4ntzqjhedm5b5zjqulugknhzr46ny2qbad.onion | [operator](nostr:nprofile1qqst94nsmefmya53crp5qq39kewrtgndqcynhnzp7j8lcu0qjple6jspz3mhxue69uhkummnw3ezummcw3ezuer9wcq3gamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwv3sk6atn9e5k7jxrgyy) | N/A | N/A | | relay.snort.social | Same relay as clearnet relay relay.snort.social | wss://skzzn6cimfdv5e2phjc4yr5v7ikbxtn5f7dkwn5c7v47tduzlbosqmqd.onion | [operator](nostr:nprofile1qqsx8lnrrrw9skpulctgzruxm5y7rzlaw64tcf9qpqww9pt0xvzsfmgpzpmhxue69uhkummnw3ezuamfdejszxrhwden5te0wfjkccte9eekummjwsh8xmmrd9skct9tyup) | N/A | N/A | | nostr.thesamecat.io | Same relay as clearnet relay nostr.thesamecat.io | ws://2jsnlhfnelig5acq6iacydmzdbdmg7xwunm4xl6qwbvzacw4lwrjmlyd.onion | [operator](nostr:npub1wtuh24gpuxjyvnmjwlvxzg8k0elhasagfmmgz0x8vp4ltcy8ples54e7js) | N/A | N/A | | nostr.land | The nostr.land paid relay (same as clearnet) | ws://nostrland2gdw7g3y77ctftovvil76vquipymo7tsctlxpiwknevzfid.onion | [operator](nostr:npub12262qa4uhw7u8gdwlgmntqtv7aye8vdcmvszkqwgs0zchel6mz7s6cgrkj) | [Payment URL](http://nostrland2gdw7g3y77ctftovvil76vquipymo7tsctlxpiwknevzfid.onion) | BTC LN | | bitcoiner.social | No auth required, currently | ws://bitcoinr6de5lkvx4tpwdmzrdfdpla5sya2afwpcabjup2xpi5dulbad.onion | [operator](nostr:npub1an3nz7lczcunpdw6ltjst94hgzcxpppnk7zk3zr2nfcj4yd96kdse6twjd) | N/A | N/A | | relay.westernbtc.com | The westernbtc.com paid relay | ws://westbtcebhgi4ilxxziefho6bqu5lqwa5ncfjefnfebbhx2cwqx5knyd.onion | [operator](nostr:npub1pc57ls4rad5kvsp733suhzl2d4u9y7h4upt952a2pucnalc59teq33dmza) | [Payment URL](hjar34h5zwgtvxr345q7rncso3dhdaryuxgri3lu7lbhmnzvin72z5ad.onion) | BTC LN | | freelay.sovbit.host | Free relay for sovbit.host | ws://sovbitm2enxfr5ot6qscwy5ermdffbqscy66wirkbsigvcshumyzbbqd.onion | [operator](nostr:npub1gnwpctdec0aa00hfy4lvadftu08ccs9677mr73h9ddv2zvw8fu9smmerrq) | N/A | N/A | | nostr.sovbit.host | Paid relay for sovbit.host | ws://sovbitgz5uqyh7jwcsudq4sspxlj4kbnurvd3xarkkx2use3k6rlibqd.onion | [operator](nostr:npub1gnwpctdec0aa00hfy4lvadftu08ccs9677mr73h9ddv2zvw8fu9smmerrq) | N/A | N/A | | nostr.wine | 🍷 [nostr.wine](https://nostr.wine) relay | ws://nostrwinemdptvqukjttinajfeedhf46hfd5bz2aj2q5uwp7zros3nad.onion | [operator](nostr:npub1fyvwkve2gxm3h2d8fvwuvsnkell4jtj4zpae8w4w8zhn2g89t96s0tsfuk) | [Payment URL](http://nostrwinemdptvqukjttinajfeedhf46hfd5bz2aj2q5uwp7zros3nad.onion) | BTC LN, BTC, Credit Card/CashApp (Stripe) | | inbox.nostr.wine | 🍷 [inbox.nostr.wine](https://inbox.nostr.wine) relay | ws://wineinboxkayswlofkugkjwhoyi744qvlzdxlmdvwe7cei2xxy4gc6ad.onion | [operator](nostr:npub1fyvwkve2gxm3h2d8fvwuvsnkell4jtj4zpae8w4w8zhn2g89t96s0tsfuk) | [Payment URL](http://wineinboxkayswlofkugkjwhoyi744qvlzdxlmdvwe7cei2xxy4gc6ad.onion) | BTC LN, BTC | | filter.nostr.wine | 🍷 [filter.nostr.wine](https://filter.nostr.wine) proxy relay | ws://winefiltermhqixxzmnzxhrmaufpnfq3rmjcl6ei45iy4aidrngpsyid.onion | [operator](nostr:npub1fyvwkve2gxm3h2d8fvwuvsnkell4jtj4zpae8w4w8zhn2g89t96s0tsfuk) | [Payment URL](http://nostrwinemdptvqukjttinajfeedhf46hfd5bz2aj2q5uwp7zros3nad.onion/add-time) | BTC LN, BTC | | N/A | N/A | ws://pzfw4uteha62iwkzm3lycabk4pbtcr67cg5ymp5i3xwrpt3t24m6tzad.onion:81 | [operator](nostr:nprofile1q9z8wue69uhky6t5vdhkjmnjxejx2dtvddm8sdr5wpmkgmt6wfjxversd3sn2umevyexzenhwp3kzcn2w4cry7rsdy6kgatvvfskgtn0de5k7m30q9z8wue69uhk77r5wfjx2anpwcmrg73kx3ukydmcxeex5ee5de685ut2dpjkgmf4vg6h56n3w4k82emtde585u35xeh8jvn3vfskgtn0de5k7m30qqs93v545xjl0w8865rhw7kte0mkjxst88rk3k3xj53q4zdxm2zu5ectdn2z6) | N/A | N/A | | nostr.fractalized.net | Free relay for fractalized.net | ws://xvgox2zzo7cfxcjrd2llrkthvjs5t7efoalu34s6lmkqhvzvrms6ipyd.onion | [operator](nostr:npub1ky4kxtyg0uxgw8g5p5mmedh8c8s6sqny6zmaaqj44gv4rk0plaus3m4fd2) | N/A | N/A | | nfrelay.app | [nfrelay.app](https://nfrelay.app) aggregator relay (nostr-filter-relay) | ws://nfrelay6saohkmipikquvrn6d64dzxivhmcdcj4d5i7wxis47xwsriyd.onion | [operator](nostr:npub19dn7fq9hlxwjsdtgf28hyakcdmd73cccaf2u7a7vl42echey7ezs2hwja7) | N/A | N/A | relay.nostr.net | Public relay from nostr.net (Same as clearnet) | ws://nostrnetl6yd5whkldj3vqsxyyaq3tkuspy23a3qgx7cdepb4564qgqd.onion | [operator](https://nostr.at/aljaz@nostr.si) | N/A | N/A | | nerostrator | Free to read, pay XMR to relay | ws://nerostrrgb5fhj6dnzhjbgmnkpy2berdlczh6tuh2jsqrjok3j4zoxid.onion | [operator](nostr:npub19j7zhftjfjnep4xa7zxhevschkqdvem9zr26dq4myhu6d62p3gqs3htnca) |[Payment URL](http://nerostrrgb5fhj6dnzhjbgmnkpy2berdlczh6tuh2jsqrjok3j4zoxid.onion) | XMR | | nostr.girino.org | Public relay from nostr.girino.org | ws://gnostr2jnapk72mnagq3cuykfon73temzp77hcbncn4silgt77boruid.onion | [operator](nostr:npub18lav8fkgt8424rxamvk8qq4xuy9n8mltjtgztv2w44hc5tt9vets0hcfsz) | N/A | N/A | | wot.girino.org | WoT relay from wot.girino.org | ws://girwot2koy3kvj6fk7oseoqazp5vwbeawocb3m27jcqtah65f2fkl3yd.onion | [operator](nostr:npub18lav8fkgt8424rxamvk8qq4xuy9n8mltjtgztv2w44hc5tt9vets0hcfsz) | N/A | N/A | | haven.girino.org/{outbox, inbox, chat, private} | Haven smart relay from haven.girino.org | ws://ghaven2hi3qn2riitw7ymaztdpztrvmm337e2pgkacfh3rnscaoxjoad.onion/{outbox, inbox, chat, private} | [operator](nostr:npub18lav8fkgt8424rxamvk8qq4xuy9n8mltjtgztv2w44hc5tt9vets0hcfsz) | N/A | N/A | | relay.nostpy.lol | Free Web of Trust relay (Same as clearnet) | ws://pemgkkqjqjde7y2emc2hpxocexugbixp42o4zymznil6zfegx5nfp4id.onion | [operator](nostr:nprofile1qy08wumn8ghj7mn0wd68yttsw43zuam9d3kx7unyv4ezumn9wshszxrhwden5te0dehhxarj9enx6apwwa5h5tnzd9az7qpqg5pm4gf8hh7skp2rsnw9h2pvkr32sdnuhkcx9yte7qxmrg6v4txqr5amve) |N/A | N/A | | Poster.place Nostr Relay | N/A | ws://dmw5wbawyovz7fcahvguwkw4sknsqsalffwctioeoqkvvy7ygjbcuoad.onion | [operator](nostr:nprofile1qqsr836yylem9deatcu08ekfj8qj9f2aypq8ydt0w8dyng8zp8akjsqpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0ds6xxx6y) | N/A | N/A | | Azzamo Relay | [Azzamo](https://azzamo.net/relays/) Premium Nostr relay. (paid) | ws://q6a7m5qkyonzb5fk5yv4jyu3ar44hqedn7wjopg737lit2ckkhx2nyid.onion | [operator](nostr:npub1jjn20zj6awa6gz73423zxjqszvkzmqqyhwghwctvgy7ncrwlxg8qdavknm) | [Payment URL](https://azzamo.net/pay) | BTC LN | | Azzamo Inbox Relay | [Azzamo](https://azzamo.net/inbox-relay/) Group and Private message relay. (Freemium) | ws://gp5kiwqfw7t2fwb3rfts2aekoph4x7pj5pv65re2y6hzaujsxewanbqd.onion | [operator](nostr:npub1jjn20zj6awa6gz73423zxjqszvkzmqqyhwghwctvgy7ncrwlxg8qdavknm) | [Payment URL](https://azzamo.net/pay) | BTC LN | | Noderunners Relay | The official [Noderunners](https://noderunners.network) Nostr Relay. | ws://35vr3xigzjv2xyzfyif6o2gksmkioppy4rmwag7d4bqmwuccs2u4jaid.onion | [operator](nostr:nprofile1qqsqarzpaw2xv4cc36n092krdsj78yll7n2pfx5rv7fzp4n9jhlsl2spz3mhxue69uhhwmm59esh57npd4hjumn9wsq3gamnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwv3sk6atn9e5k7tqd6ns) | [Payment URL](https://noderunners.azzamo.net) | BTC LN | ## Contributing Contributions are encouraged to keep this document alive. Just open a PR and I'll have it tested and merged. The onion URL is the only mandatory column, the rest is just nice-to-have metadata about the relay. Put `N/A` in empty columns. If you want to contribute anonymously, please contact me on [SimpleX](https://simplex.chat/contact#/?v=2&smp=smp%3A%2F%2F0YuTwO05YJWS8rkjn9eLJDjQhFKvIYd8d4xG8X1blIU%3D%40smp8.simplex.im%2FZ_4q0Nv91wCk8Uekyiaas7NSr-nEDir7%23%2F%3Fv%3D1-2%26dh%3DMCowBQYDK2VuAyEAvdSLn5QEwrfKQswQGTzlwtXeLMXbzxErv-zOJU6D0y8%253D%26srv%3Dbeccx4yfxxbvyhqypaavemqurytl6hozr47wfc7uuecacjqdvwpw2xid.onion) or send a DM on nostr using a disposable npub. ### Operator column It is generally preferred to use something that includes a NIP-19 string, either just the string or a url that contains the NIP-19 string in it (e.g. an njump url).

@ 000002de:c05780a7

The newly installed FBI Director Kash Patel was sworn in on a Bhagavad Gita (Hindu holy book) NOT a Christian Bible! Guys, its happening! Christian Nationalism is here. We predicted that Trump would introduce a government ruled by Christians for Christians persecuting people of other faiths. Its just a matter of weeks until we are in full blown Handmaids Tale! Time to get out. Get out while you can. originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/899838

@ 5d4b6c8d:8a1c1ee3

I've been very hopeful that the proposal to replace the IRS, and all of the taxes it collects, with a combination of sales taxes and tariffs, will go through, but just this morning some of the secondary effects of such a change occurred to me. Now, I'm even more hopeful that this happens. # The Obvious Benefits My initial reasons for excitement were the obvious ones: consumption based taxes have better incentives than production based taxes (I know tax incidence muddies the waters, but this is still true) and consumption taxes are more avoidable than the slew of individual and corporate taxes currently in place. # Financial Privacy One second order benefit occurred to me immediately: Without taxes on income/payroll/inheritance/capital gains/etc. the state loses most of its rational for its rampant invasions of our financial privacy. Since most businesses are already subjected to the invasion of their financial privacy (through state and local sales taxes), this is a huge net positive. Not only is this better for its own sake, but all of the monitoring that goes into current financial surveillance is costly. Getting all of those transactions costs out of our financial system will be a huge positive. # No More Benefits Tied to Employment This is what hit me this morning. The reason Americans get so many benefits through their employers is because they're tax exempted. Having our healthcare tied to our employer, and largely decided by them, is a huge distortion in the health care market and it radically reduces competition. Without preferential tax treatment, we would just be paid out that money in our salaries and make our own health care choices. As such, expect the current medical-industrial complex to fight this tax reform tooth and nail. The other element of this that I realized is that retirement accounts will lose the tax penalty, come withdrawal time (obviously depending on which type you have). That'll be a huge boon for many of us, and make up for the impending collapse of Social Security. # What Else? I haven't spent much more time thinking through other implications. What other effects will there be if the current tax regime is replaced with sales taxes and tariffs. originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/899802

@ 55f04590:2d385185

# Loops have been the overarching theme in the last two months of my work. You see, my book project is incredibly exciting, and whenever I have a large project like this—_a beast_—I have a tendency to become somewhat obsessive, (subconsciously) dedicating every waking hour to feeding it. I forced myself to step away from it for a bit, working on other projects while letting the book slumber in the back of my head. When I picked the project back up again, I could feel the different pieces it consists of had clicked into place. It always surprises me to see how taking time _away from a project_ can contribute to seeing things more clearly _on the project_. ## A new website for NoGood During this brief hiatus I found myself digging deeper into the indie & open web. I read articles by people who have been active proponents of an open web—as opposed to the walled gardens we’ve gotten accustomed to tracking us whichever way we surf—and I discovered the concept of tending to a ‘digital garden’. I saw a side of the web I was less exposed to before that aligned perfectly with my values. As a result, I overhauled the NoGood website. This new version of the website is simple, effective, and static: there is no tracking whatsoever, and it makes no requests to external resources. It only uses system fonts, serves optimised images, and because of that it’s blazing fast. I built it using _11ty_, and you can read more about it [in last month’s blogpost](https://nogood.studio/posts/update/new-website/). Within weeks, NoGood got featured on [DeadSimpleSites](http://deadsimplesites.com), a gallery full of similar websites, which is a welcome bit of recognition.  ## Rewarding dialogues The book’s sections ([_Work_, _Process_, _Context_, _Items_](https://nogood.studio/posts/book/announcement)) are set. The _Context_ section is meant to—well, do what it says on the tin: paint a picture of the context in which my own work was created and construct conversations between my work and that which came before it. To do so, I’ll carve out space for articles—published under the _Creative Commons_ or share-alike license—that inspired me along the way. I’ll illustrate each article myself, in black and white. I’ve asked a few people for their permission to publish their articles and have received positive responses from [Cory Doctorow](https://craphound.com/), Jack Dorsey, [Lyn Alden](https://www.lynalden.com/) and [DerGigi](https://dergigi.com/), for which I’m incredibly grateful. Just the ability to have dialogues with these people whose work I’ve admired is a rewarding outcome of me pursuing this project, feeding back into my desire to create a great publication. In order to do right by the _Creative Commons_ license, I’ll make the _Context_ section available on the NoGood website, too. I may even turn it into a printable zine—more on that later. ## Editing and designing the NoGood book I primarily work on the book from my studio space, which I share with two other creatives, [Timo](http://timokuilder.com) and [Daniël](http://daniel.pizza). Daniël designs and builds open-source software for [Ghost](http://ghost.org), writes, and publishes a literary magazine called [_TRANSCRIPT_](http://transcriptmag.store). We share similar values, he knows a thing or two about the open web, and it made perfect sense for us to work together. I’ve hired him to act as an editor for the book, and he now edits my writing (in fact, he edited this update, too!). We’ve had some dialogues about the articles I’m including as well as others I could add, too, and we’ll continue our conversations throughout the design process. Commissioning him to take on this work has been a relief. It freed up precious headspace, and I’ve started designing the first spreads of the book. Some sections already are very clear, while others still need time to crystallise. Fortunately, clarity comes as a result of chipping away at the work ahead, so I keep at it with renewed energy—updates will now follow more regularly.   ## Crowdfunding & production I have a complete picture of the production costs of the book and I’ve ironed out the logistics. I know which printer will be printing it, and my budget estimates were correct. The current number of [pre-orders](https://geyser.fund/project/nogoodartbook) (53) covers roughly 70% of the production costs, which means I can safely produce the NoGood book—it’s going to print this summer! 200 copies will roll off the press, and I’m really looking forward to it. Thank you for reading. More soon, Thomas. --- #### Previous updates [The NoGood art book announcement](https://stacker.news/items/736947) [Update 01 – Humble beginnings](https://stacker.news/items/744898) [Update 02 – Throwback](https://stacker.news/items/762791) #### Pre-order a book The NoGood art book is available [as a pre-order on Geyser](https://geyser.fund/project/nogoodartbook). originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/899798

@ c43d6de3:a6583169

Every Sunday, my brother Alex and I would catch the scent of pie creeping from the oven as we chased Ronnie and Ellis around my grandma’s house. We were good at keeping traditions. Though we eventually outgrew the days of stampeding through Grandma’s living room, her house remained our gathering place. The four of us—Alex, Ronnie, Ellis, and I—would settle on the back porch, the aroma of freshly baked pie still wafting through the air. We’d trade stories about our first crushes, our first kisses, and our dreams for the future, laughing in the warmth of a home that felt eternal. Alex was the first to leave for college. He never really came back. Four years away, then a big-time job across the country. Ronnie and Ellis—the twins—left a few years later. They never truly returned, either. Not the same, at least. A cruel trick of biology had been lurking in the depths of their genes, lying in wait for the right moment to surface. In college, Ronnie was consumed by schizophrenia, while Ellis battled years of depression. They came back home, but they weren’t the same boys I had grown up with. The ones I had once sprinted through hallways with, laughing until our sides hurt, were lost to something none of us could chase down or outrun. By the time I graduated, the scent of pie had vanished forever. My grandmother’s grave was my last stop before I, too, left town. I never went back. People leave in different ways. Some move to another city or another country. Some lose themselves to illness, slipping through our fingers even as they sit beside us. Some find their final resting place. All dearly departed. What makes their departure so bittersweet is the time we once had with them—the memories we carry, the laughter that still echoes in the corners of our hearts. That’s life. That’s what makes it worth it.

@ 5d4b6c8d:8a1c1ee3

# It's *contest-palooza* at ~Stacker_Sports: - We have [cricket](https://stacker.news/items/898849/r/Undisciplined) - We'll likely have more cricket soon! - We have [USA vs the world](https://stacker.news/items/897858/r/Undisciplined) - We have [soccer](https://stacker.news/items/894320/r/Undisciplined) - We have [NBA](https://stacker.news/items/894412/r/Undisciplined) - Coming soon: March Madness, Fantasy Baseball, MLB Survivor Pools, NFL Mock Drafts, and AFL! # In actual sports news, - the NBA is hitting the home stretch. The contenders, pretenders, and tankers are sorting themselves out. - Steph's 56 - Giannis vs Jokic showdown - Brady tampering for Stafford? - NFL combine and other offseason activity - Ovi chasing the Great One - MLB started spring training games - New ball/strike review system # Degenerate Corner - [Predyx Super Bowl market](https://beta.predyx.com/market/super-bowl-winner-2026-1740263192) - I'm killing it on Ember. What's my secret? Plus, whatever stackers drop in the comments. originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/899748

@ a012dc82:6458a70d

In the dynamic and often unpredictable world of cryptocurrency, the opinions and predictions of financial pundits like Jim Cramer, the host of CNBC's "Mad Money," can significantly sway market sentiments and investor behavior. Cramer, known for his incisive and sometimes controversial market insights, has recently turned his attention to Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency. His latest comments suggest a bearish outlook on Bitcoin, which has sparked intense discussions and speculations within the crypto community. This development is particularly noteworthy given Cramer's influence and the weight his opinions often carry in financial circles. His views on Bitcoin are not just idle chatter; they have the potential to shape market trends and influence investment strategies. **Table of Contents** - Cramer's Changing Stance on Bitcoin - Historical Perspective - The "Reverse Cramer Effect" - Market Reactions and Speculations - Analyzing Past Trends - The Role of Bitcoin ETFs - Implications for Investors - Navigating Market Sentiments - The Future of Bitcoin - Conclusion - FAQs **Cramer's Changing Stance on Bitcoin** **Historical Perspective** Jim Cramer's relationship with Bitcoin has been a rollercoaster of changing opinions and stances. Initially skeptical, Cramer warmed up to Bitcoin, acknowledging its potential as an investment asset. However, his recent bearish comments mark a significant shift from his earlier views. This change is intriguing, as it comes at a time when Bitcoin has been showing signs of recovery and gaining mainstream acceptance. Cramer's influence in the financial world means that his opinions are closely monitored and can lead to tangible market reactions. His latest stance, suggesting that Bitcoin is "topping out," has therefore raised eyebrows and led to debates about the future direction of the cryptocurrency. **The "Reverse Cramer Effect"** The phenomenon known as the "reverse Cramer effect" has become a topic of interest among investors and market analysts. This effect, where the market tends to move in the opposite direction of Cramer's advice, has been observed on multiple occasions. For example, after Cramer advised investors to sell Bitcoin in April 2023, the cryptocurrency's price surged, defying his predictions. This pattern has led some investors to view Cramer's predictions as a contrarian indicator. The consistency of this effect raises questions about market psychology and the influence of prominent financial figures on investor behavior. It also underscores the complexity and unpredictability of the cryptocurrency market, where sentiment can often drive price movements more than fundamentals. **Market Reactions and Speculations** **Analyzing Past Trends** The market's reaction to Cramer's comments is not just a matter of idle speculation; it has real implications for investors and traders. The "reverse Cramer effect" has been noted not just in the case of Bitcoin but also in other financial markets. This phenomenon suggests a deeper, perhaps psychological, aspect of market behavior where investors might be inclined to react contrarily to prominent predictions. The recent bearish stance by Cramer on Bitcoin thus becomes a focal point for market watchers. If history is any guide, this could very well be an inadvertent signal for a bullish phase for Bitcoin. **The Role of Bitcoin ETFs** The potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC is a significant development in the cryptocurrency world. These ETFs would provide a more accessible and regulated avenue for investing in Bitcoin, potentially attracting a new class of investors. The approval of these ETFs could be a game-changer for Bitcoin's price, as it would represent a major step towards mainstream acceptance and institutional investment. The timing of Cramer's comments in the context of these developments adds an interesting dimension to market speculations. If the SEC does approve Bitcoin ETFs, and the "reverse Cramer effect" holds true, we could witness a substantial bull run in Bitcoin's price. **Implications for Investors** **Navigating Market Sentiments** For investors, the "reverse Cramer effect" and the potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs present a complex scenario. While it's tempting to base investment decisions on the predictions of market experts, the unpredictable nature of cryptocurrencies requires a more nuanced approach. Investors need to consider a range of factors, including market trends, technological developments, regulatory changes, and broader economic indicators. The case of Jim Cramer's shifting stance on Bitcoin highlights the importance of not relying solely on expert opinions but also conducting independent research and analysis. **The Future of Bitcoin** The future of Bitcoin, as suggested by the recent developments and Cramer's comments, appears to be at a potential turning point. While the possibility of a bull market looms, it's important to remember the inherent volatility and risks associated with cryptocurrencies. The market's response to Cramer's comments, coupled with the potential regulatory advancements like Bitcoin ETFs, could indeed set the stage for significant price movements. However, investors should remain cautious and diversified in their approach, keeping in mind that the cryptocurrency market is still maturing and subject to rapid changes. **Conclusion** Jim Cramer's recent bearish comments on Bitcoin have stirred up a wave of discussions and speculations about the future of this leading cryptocurrency. While his track record suggests the possibility of an upcoming bull market, the volatile and unpredictable nature of the crypto world warrants a cautious approach. Investors should weigh Cramer's opinions alongside other market indicators and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions. As the cryptocurrency landscape continues to evolve, staying informed, adaptable, and prudent remains crucial for navigating the market's ebbs and flows. **FAQs** **Who is Jim Cramer?** Jim Cramer is a well-known financial expert and the host of CNBC's "Mad Money." He is recognized for his bold market predictions and has a significant influence in the financial world. **What is the "Reverse Cramer Effect"?** The "Reverse Cramer Effect" refers to a phenomenon where the market tends to move in the opposite direction of Jim Cramer's predictions. This has been observed particularly in the cryptocurrency market with Bitcoin. **Why are Jim Cramer's comments on Bitcoin important?** Cramer's comments are closely followed by investors and can influence market trends. His recent bearish stance on Bitcoin has sparked discussions and speculations about a potential bull market due to the "Reverse Cramer Effect." **What impact could Bitcoin ETFs have on the market?** The approval of Bitcoin ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) by the SEC could significantly boost Bitcoin's price by providing a regulated and accessible investment avenue, potentially attracting more mainstream and institutional investors. **Should investors base their decisions solely on Jim Cramer's predictions?** While Cramer's opinions are influential, investors are advised to conduct their own research and consider a range of factors before making investment decisions, due to the unpredictable nature of the cryptocurrency market. **That's all for today** **If you want more, be sure to follow us on:** **NOSTR: croxroad@getalby.com** **X: [@croxroadnewsco](https://x.com/croxroadnewsco)** **Instagram: [@croxroadnews.co/](https://www.instagram.com/croxroadnews.co/)** **Youtube: [@thebitcoinlibertarian](https://www.youtube.com/@thebitcoinlibertarian)** **Store: https://croxroad.store** **Subscribe to CROX ROAD Bitcoin Only Daily Newsletter** **https://www.croxroad.co/subscribe** **Get Orange Pill App And Connect With Bitcoiners In Your Area. Stack Friends Who Stack Sats link: https://signup.theorangepillapp.com/opa/croxroad** **Buy Bitcoin Books At Konsensus Network Store. 10% Discount With Code “21croxroad” link: https://bitcoinbook.shop?ref=21croxroad** ***DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.***

@ 2dd9250b:6e928072

Vi recentemente um post onde a pessoa diz que aquele final do filme O Doutrinador (2019) não faz sentido porque mesmo se explodir o Palácio dos Três Poderes, não acaba a corrupção no Brasil. Olha a mentalidade desse pessoal! São analfabetos mesmo. Progressistas são pessoas que não sabem ler e não conseguem interpretar nada, não possuem essa capacidade de interpretar o que está lendo porque o final de Doutrinador não tem a ver com isso, tem a ver com a relação entre Herói e a sua Cidade. Nas histórias em quadrinhos sempre existe uma ligação entre a cidade e o Super-Herói, é por isso que Gotham City acaba criando o Batman, isso é mostrado em The Batman e em Batman: Cavaleiro das Trevas, quando aquele garoto no final, diz para o Batman não fugir, porque ele queria ver o Batman de novo. E o Comissário Gordon diz que o "Batman é o que a cidade de Gotham precisa." Em Batman: Cavaleiro das Trevas Ressurge você vê justamente a cidade de Gotham sendo tomada pela corrupção e pela ideologia do Bane. A Cidade vai definhando em imoralidade e o Bruce olha da prisão naquele poço a cidade sendo destruída e decide que o Batman precisa voltar porque se Gotham for destruída, o Batman é destruído junto e é por isso que ele consegue sair daquele poço e voltar para salvar Gotham. Isso também é mostrado em Demolidor. Na série Demolidor o Matt Murdock sempre está falando que ele precisa defender a cidade Cozinha do Inferno; que o Fisk não vai dominar a cidade e fazer o que ele quer. Inclusive na terceira temporada isso fica mais evidente na luta final na mansão do Fisk, onde Matt fala para ele que agora a cidade toda vai saber o que ele fez; a cidade vai ver o mal que ele é para Hell's Kitchen, porque a gente sabe que o Fisk fez de tudo para a imagem do Demolidor entrar e descrédito perante os cidadãos, então o que acontece no final ali do Doutrinador não significa que ele está acabando com a corrupção quando explode o Congresso, ele está praticamente interrompendo o ciclo do sistema, ele está colocando uma falha na engrenagem do sistema. Quando você ouve o nome "Brasília" você pensa na corrupção dos políticos, onde a farra acontece, onde os políticos moram, onde eles desviam dinheiro arrecadado dos impostos que vai tudo para Brasília, então quando você ouve falarem de Brasília, você sempre pensa que o pessoal que mora lá, mora junto com tudo de podre que acontece no Brasil. Então quando ele explode tudo ali, ele está basicamente destruindo o mecanismo que suja Brasília. Ele está fazendo isso naquela cidade. Porque o símbolo da cidade é justamente esse, a farsa de que naquele lugar o povo será ouvido e a justiça será feita. Ele está destruindo a ideologia de que o Estado nos protege, nos dá segurança, saúde e educação. Porque na verdade o Estado só existe para privilegiar os políticos, funcionários públicos de auto escalão, suas famílias e amigos. Enquanto que o povo sofre para sustentar a elite política. O protagonista Miguel entendeu isso quando a filha dele morreu na fila do SUS.

@ d360efec:14907b5f

**ภาพรวมการวิเคราะห์ Bitcoin (BTC)** จากการตรวจสอบกราฟและอินดิเคเตอร์ใน Timeframe 15 นาที, 4 ชั่วโมง, และรายวัน (Day) พบว่า Bitcoin มีความผันผวนและมีแนวโน้มการเปลี่ยนแปลงที่น่าสนใจในแต่ละ Timeframe ดังรายละเอียดต่อไปนี้ค่ะ **อินดิเคเตอร์ที่ใช้ในการวิเคราะห์** * **EMA (Exponential Moving Average):** * **EMA 50 (สีเหลือง):** แสดงแนวโน้มระยะสั้นของราคา * **EMA 200 (สีขาว):** แสดงแนวโน้มระยะยาวของราคา * **SMC (Smart Money Concepts):** แนวคิดการเทรดที่เน้นการวิเคราะห์พฤติกรรมของ "Smart Money" หรือผู้เล่นรายใหญ่ในตลาด * **ICT (Inner Circle Trader) Buyside & Sellside Liquidity:** อินดิเคเตอร์ที่ระบุตำแหน่งสภาพคล่องฝั่งซื้อและฝั่งขาย ซึ่งเป็นเป้าหมายราคาที่น่าสนใจ * **Money Flow:** อินดิเคเตอร์ที่แสดงทิศทางการไหลเข้าออกของเงินทุนในสินทรัพย์ * **Trend Strength (🌟Introducing the Trend and Strength Signals indicator by AlgoAlpha!):** อินดิเคเตอร์ที่ช่วยระบุแนวโน้มและความแข็งแกร่งของตลาด มีลักษณะเป็นเมฆและสัญญาณซื้อขาย **วิเคราะห์แนวโน้มและกลยุทธ์การเทรด** **1. Timeframe 15 นาที (TF 15m)**  * **แนวโน้ม:** ใน TF 15 นาที ราคา BTC มีความผันผวนในกรอบแคบ EMA 50 ตัดกับ EMA 200 บ่งบอกถึงความไม่แน่นอนของแนวโน้มในระยะสั้น * **สัญญาณอินดิเคเตอร์:** * **Trend Strength:** เกิดสัญญาณซื้อขาย (Buy/Sell Signal) แต่เมฆ (Cloud) ยังไม่ชัดเจน บ่งบอกถึงความแข็งแกร่งของแนวโน้มยังไม่เด่นชัด * **Money Flow:** มีการสลับการไหลเข้าออกของเงินทุน สะท้อนถึงความไม่แน่นอนในระยะสั้น * **Buyside & Sellside Liquidity:** อินดิเคเตอร์นี้จะช่วยระบุแนวรับแนวต้านใน TF สั้นๆ เพื่อใช้ในการพิจารณาจุดเข้าออก * **Chart Pattern:** พิจารณารูปแบบ Chart Pattern ใน TF 15 นาที เช่น รูปแบบสามเหลี่ยม (Triangle) หรือรูปแบบธง (Flag) เพื่อหารูปแบบราคาที่อาจเกิดขึ้น * **กลยุทธ์ Day Trade (การเทรดรายวัน):** * **กลยุทธ์:** เน้นการเทรดในกรอบ Sideway โดยใช้แนวรับแนวต้านที่ระบุจาก Buyside & Sellside Liquidity และสัญญาณจาก Trend Strength ประกอบการตัดสินใจ * **SMC Setup:** มองหา SMC Setup ใน TF 15 นาที เช่น Order Block หรือ Fair Value Gap บริเวณแนวรับแนวต้าน เพื่อหาจังหวะเข้าเทรดตามแนวโน้มระยะสั้น * **สิ่งที่ต้องระวัง:** ความผันผวนสูงใน TF 15 นาที อาจทำให้เกิดสัญญาณหลอก ควรใช้ Stop Loss ที่เหมาะสม และบริหารความเสี่ยงอย่างเคร่งครัด **2. Timeframe 4 ชั่วโมง (TF 4H)**  * **แนวโน้ม:** ใน TF 4 ชั่วโมง ราคา BTC มีแนวโน้มเป็นขาขึ้น EMA 50 อยู่เหนือ EMA 200 บ่งบอกถึงแนวโน้มขาขึ้นในระยะกลาง * **สัญญาณอินดิเคเตอร์:** * **Trend Strength:** เกิดเมฆสีเขียว (Green Cloud) และสัญญาณซื้อ (Buy Signal) บ่งบอกถึงแนวโน้มขาขึ้นที่แข็งแกร่ง * **Money Flow:** เงินทุนไหลเข้าต่อเนื่อง สนับสนุนแนวโน้มขาขึ้น * **Buyside & Sellside Liquidity:** อินดิเคเตอร์นี้จะช่วยระบุแนวรับแนวต้านที่สำคัญใน TF 4 ชั่วโมง เพื่อใช้ในการวางแผนการเทรดระยะกลาง * **Chart Pattern:** พิจารณารูปแบบ Chart Pattern ใน TF 4 ชั่วโมง เช่น รูปแบบ Cup and Handle หรือรูปแบบ Ascending Triangle เพื่อยืนยันแนวโน้มขาขึ้น * **กลยุทธ์ Day Trade (การเทรดรายวัน) / Swing Trade (การเทรดระยะกลาง):** * **กลยุทธ์:** เน้นการเทรดตามแนวโน้มขาขึ้น โดยใช้ EMA 50 และแนวรับแนวต้านจาก Buyside & Sellside Liquidity เป็นจุดอ้างอิงในการเข้าเทรด * **SMC Setup:** มองหา SMC Setup ใน TF 4 ชั่วโมง เช่น Break of Structure (BOS) หรือ Change of Character (CHOCH) เพื่อหาจังหวะเข้าเทรดตามแนวโน้มขาขึ้น * **สิ่งที่ต้องระวัง:** การพักตัวของราคาในแนวโน้มขาขึ้น อาจทำให้เกิดการย่อตัวระยะสั้น ควรพิจารณาแนวรับที่แข็งแกร่ง และตั้ง Stop Loss เพื่อป้องกันความเสี่ยง **3. Timeframe รายวัน (TF Day)**  * **แนวโน้ม:** ใน TF รายวัน ราคา BTC ยังคงอยู่ในแนวโน้มขาขึ้นระยะยาว EMA 50 อยู่เหนือ EMA 200 อย่างชัดเจน * **สัญญาณอินดิเคเตอร์:** * **Trend Strength:** เกิดเมฆสีเขียวขนาดใหญ่ (Large Green Cloud) และสัญญาณซื้อต่อเนื่อง (Continuous Buy Signal) บ่งบอกถึงแนวโน้มขาขึ้นระยะยาวที่แข็งแกร่งมาก * **Money Flow:** เงินทุนไหลเข้าอย่างต่อเนื่องและแข็งแกร่ง สนับสนุนแนวโน้มขาขึ้นระยะยาว * **Buyside & Sellside Liquidity:** อินดิเคเตอร์นี้จะช่วยระบุแนวรับแนวต้านที่สำคัญใน TF รายวัน เพื่อใช้ในการวางแผนการลงทุนระยะยาว * **Chart Pattern:** พิจารณารูปแบบ Chart Pattern ใน TF รายวัน เช่น รูปแบบ Bullish Flag หรือรูปแบบ Wedge เพื่อยืนยันแนวโน้มขาขึ้นระยะยาว * **กลยุทธ์ Day Trade (การเทรดรายวัน) / Swing Trade (การเทรดระยะกลาง) / Long-Term Investment (การลงทุนระยะยาว):** * **กลยุทธ์:** เน้นการลงทุนระยะยาวตามแนวโน้มขาขึ้น โดยพิจารณาจังหวะเข้าซื้อเมื่อราคาย่อตัวลงมาบริเวณแนวรับสำคัญใน TF รายวัน * **SMC Setup:** มองหา SMC Setup ใน TF รายวัน เช่น Institutional Order Flow เพื่อยืนยันแนวโน้มขาขึ้นระยะยาว * **สิ่งที่ต้องระวัง:** ความเสี่ยงจากปัจจัยภายนอกที่อาจกระทบตลาด Cryptocurrency ในระยะยาว ควรติดตามข่าวสารและสถานการณ์ตลาดอย่างใกล้ชิด และกระจายความเสี่ยงในการลงทุน **สรุป** จากการวิเคราะห์ BTC ใน 3 Timeframe ด้วยอินดิเคเตอร์และ Chart Pattern พบว่า BTC ยังคงมีแนวโน้มขาขึ้นในระยะกลางและระยะยาว อย่างไรก็ตาม ในระยะสั้น TF 15 นาที ยังมีความผันผวนและไม่แน่นอน กลยุทธ์การเทรดที่เหมาะสมจะแตกต่างกันไปตาม Timeframe และเป้าหมายการเทรดของแต่ละบุคคล ควรพิจารณาความเสี่ยงและบริหารจัดการเงินทุนอย่างเหมาะสม **คำแนะนำเพิ่มเติม** * **ศึกษาเพิ่มเติม:** ควรศึกษาเพิ่มเติมเกี่ยวกับ SMC, ICT, และ Trend Strength Indicator เพื่อให้เข้าใจหลักการทำงานและนำไปประยุกต์ใช้ในการเทรดได้อย่างมีประสิทธิภาพ * **ทดลองบนบัญชี Demo:** ทดลองกลยุทธ์ต่างๆ บนบัญชี Demo ก่อนนำไปใช้จริง เพื่อทดสอบความเข้าใจและปรับปรุงกลยุทธ์ให้เหมาะสมกับตนเอง * **ติดตามข่าวสาร:** ติดตามข่าวสารและสถานการณ์ตลาด Cryptocurrency อย่างสม่ำเสมอ เพื่อประกอบการตัดสินใจในการเทรดและการลงทุน **Disclaimer (ข้อจำกัดความรับผิดชอบ):** การวิเคราะห์นี้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อให้ข้อมูลเท่านั้น และเป็นความคิดเห็นส่วนบุคคล ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำทางการเงิน การลงทุนใน Cryptocurrency มีความเสี่ยงสูง นักลงทุนควรศึกษาข้อมูลด้วยตนเองและใช้ความระมัดระวังก่อนตัดสินใจลงทุน

@ d360efec:14907b5f

$OKX:BTCUSDT.P From checking the charts and indicators in 15-minute, 4-hour, and daily timeframes, it is found that Bitcoin is volatile and has interesting trend changes in each timeframe, as detailed below: **Trend Analysis and Trading Strategies** **1. 15-Minute Timeframe (TF 15m)**  * **Trend:** In the 15-minute TF, the BTC price is fluctuating in a narrow range. EMA 50 crossing with EMA 200 indicates short-term trend uncertainty. * **Indicator Signals:** * **Trend Strength:** Buy/Sell signals occur, but the cloud is not yet clear, indicating that the trend strength is not yet prominent. * **Money Flow:** There is an alternating inflow and outflow of funds, reflecting short-term uncertainty. * **Buyside & Sellside Liquidity:** This indicator helps identify support and resistance levels in short TFs to consider entry and exit points. * **Chart Pattern:** Consider Chart Patterns in the 15-minute TF, such as Triangle or Flag patterns, to find possible price patterns. * **Day Trade Strategy:** * **Strategy:** Focus on trading in a Sideway range, using support and resistance levels identified by Buyside & Sellside Liquidity and signals from Trend Strength to make decisions. * **SMC Setup:** Look for SMC Setups in the 15-minute TF, such as Order Blocks or Fair Value Gaps around support and resistance areas, to find short-term trend trading opportunities. * **Things to watch out for:** High volatility in the 15-minute TF may cause false signals. Appropriate Stop Loss should be used and risk should be managed strictly. **2. 4-Hour Timeframe (TF 4H)**  * **Trend:** In the 4-hour TF, the BTC price is trending upwards. EMA 50 is above EMA 200, indicating a medium-term uptrend. * **Indicator Signals:** * **Trend Strength:** A Green Cloud and Buy Signal occur, indicating a strong uptrend. * **Money Flow:** Funds continue to flow in, supporting the uptrend. * **Buyside & Sellside Liquidity:** This indicator helps identify important support and resistance levels in the 4-hour TF for medium-term trading planning. * **Chart Pattern:** Consider Chart Patterns in the 4-hour TF, such as Cup and Handle or Ascending Triangle patterns, to confirm the uptrend. * **Day Trade / Swing Trade Strategy:** * **Strategy:** Focus on trading along the uptrend, using EMA 50 and support and resistance levels from Buyside & Sellside Liquidity as reference points for entering trades. * **SMC Setup:** Look for SMC Setups in the 4-hour TF, such as Break of Structure (BOS) or Change of Character (CHOCH), to find trading opportunities along the uptrend. * **Things to watch out for:** Price consolidation in an uptrend may cause short-term pullbacks. Strong support levels should be considered, and Stop Loss should be set to prevent risk. **3. Daily Timeframe (TF Day)**  * **Trend:** In the Daily TF, the BTC price is still in a long-term uptrend. EMA 50 is clearly above EMA 200. * **Indicator Signals:** * **Trend Strength:** A Large Green Cloud and Continuous Buy Signal occur, indicating a very strong long-term uptrend. * **Money Flow:** Funds are flowing in continuously and strongly, supporting the long-term uptrend. * **Buyside & Sellside Liquidity:** This indicator helps identify important support and resistance levels in the Daily TF for long-term investment planning. * **Chart Pattern:** Consider Chart Patterns in the Daily TF, such as Bullish Flag or Wedge patterns, to confirm the long-term uptrend. * **Day Trade / Swing Trade / Long-Term Investment Strategy:** * **Strategy:** Focus on long-term investment along the uptrend, considering buying opportunities when the price pulls back to important support levels in the Daily TF. * **SMC Setup:** Look for SMC Setups in the Daily TF, such as Institutional Order Flow, to confirm the long-term uptrend. * **Things to watch out for:** Risks from external factors that may affect the cryptocurrency market in the long term. Market news and situations should be closely monitored, and investment risk should be diversified. **Summary** From analyzing BTC in 3 Timeframes with indicators and Chart Patterns, it is found that BTC still has an uptrend in the medium and long term. However, in the short term, the 15-minute TF is still volatile and uncertain. Appropriate trading strategies will vary depending on the timeframe and individual trading goals. Risk should be considered and capital should be managed appropriately. **Additional Recommendations** * **Further Study:** Further study on SMC, ICT, and Trend Strength Indicator should be done to understand the working principles and apply them effectively in trading. * **Experiment on Demo Account:** Experiment with various strategies on a Demo account before using them in real trading to test understanding and improve strategies to suit oneself. * **Follow News:** Follow cryptocurrency market news and situations regularly to inform trading and investment decisions. **Disclaimer:** This analysis is for informational purposes only and represents a personal opinion. It is not financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves significant risk. Investors should conduct their own research and exercise due diligence before making any investment decisions.

@ d360efec:14907b5f

$OKX:BTCUSDT.P **Overview:** Based on the overall picture across the 3 timeframes (15m, 4H, Day), Bitcoin is in a bullish trend but is experiencing a short-term consolidation. **Analysis of each Timeframe:** * **TF 15m:**  * **SMC:** The price is in a sideways consolidation phase after breaking out of a triangle pattern. There's potential to test the Buyside Liquidity around $64,000. * **ICT:** The price is testing the EMA 50 (yellow) support. If it holds above this support, there's a chance for further upward movement. * **Buyside & Sellside Liquidity:** * Buyside Liquidity: $64,000 * Sellside Liquidity: $60,000 (around EMA 200 and the lower boundary of the sideways range) * **Money Flow:** Positive, supporting the bullish trend. * **EMA:** EMA 50 > EMA 200, a bullish signal. * **Trend Strength:** Thick green cloud and buy signals indicate a strong uptrend. * **Chart Pattern:** Triangle breakout. * **TF 4H:**  * **SMC:** The price is in a clear uptrend after breaking out of a significant resistance level. * **ICT:** The price is holding strongly above both EMA 50 and EMA 200. * **Buyside & Sellside Liquidity:** * Buyside Liquidity: No significant resistance nearby. * Sellside Liquidity: $58,000 (around EMA 50) * **Money Flow:** Positive, supporting the bullish trend. * **EMA:** EMA 50 > EMA 200, a bullish signal. * **Trend Strength:** Green cloud and buy signals indicate an uptrend. * **TF Day:**  * **SMC:** The price is in a clear uptrend. * **ICT:** The price is holding strongly above both EMA 50 and EMA 200. * **Buyside & Sellside Liquidity:** * Buyside Liquidity: No significant resistance nearby. * Sellside Liquidity: $50,000 (around EMA 50) * **Money Flow:** Positive, supporting the bullish trend. * **EMA:** EMA 50 > EMA 200, a bullish signal. * **Trend Strength:** Thick green cloud and buy signals indicate a strong uptrend. **Day Trade Strategy (SMC):** 1. **Buy on Dip:** Wait for the price to pull back towards the EMA 50 support on the 15m TF (around $61,500 - $62,000) or the lower boundary of the sideways range. 2. **Take Profit:** Set a profit target at the Buyside Liquidity around $64,000. 3. **Stop Loss:** Set a stop loss slightly below the Sellside Liquidity around $60,000. **Things to Watch Out For:** * **Volatility:** Bitcoin is highly volatile. Set your stop loss appropriately. * **False Breakout:** Be cautious of false breakouts. * **News:** Stay updated on news that may impact Bitcoin's price. **Summary:** Bitcoin is in a bullish trend across all timeframes but is experiencing a short-term consolidation. The recommended day trade strategy is "Buy on Dip," with a profit target of $64,000 and a stop loss slightly below $60,000. **Disclaimer:** This analysis is for informational purposes only and represents a personal opinion. It is not financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves significant risk. Investors should conduct their own research and exercise due diligence before making any investment decisions.

@ 2e8970de:63345c7a

 the silence before the storm originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/899535

@ e373ca41:b82abcc5

*Dieser Artikel wurde mit dem* *[Pareto-Client](https://pareto.space/read)* geschrieben (lesen Sie ihn dort, um die volle Erfahrung zu machen).  *Dies ist Teil 3 der Serie “Die Corona-Connection”: Lesen Sie hier* *[Teil 1](https://pareto.space/a/naddr1qqxnzden8quryveexq6rywp3qgswxu72gyq7ykjdfl9j556887jpzwu3mw3v9ez36quas55whq4te3grqsqqqa28l4mwne)* *und* *[Teil 2](https://pareto.space/a/naddr1qqxnzden8yensv3jxyenqv3eqgswxu72gyq7ykjdfl9j556887jpzwu3mw3v9ez36quas55whq4te3grqsqqqa2847yc03)*[.](https://pareto.space/a/naddr1qqxnzden8yensv3jxyenqv3eqgswxu72gyq7ykjdfl9j556887jpzwu3mw3v9ez36quas55whq4te3grqsqqqa2847yc03) *Wenn die Realität die Fiktion überholt: das ist die Signatur unserer Epoche. Im Zuge täglicher Enthüllungen tritt nun immer deutlicher der medial-industrielle Komplex der “Corona-Connection” zum Vorschein. Allein die Finanzströme zeigen deutlich: der Anfangsverdacht einer Verschwörung ist sichtbar und nachweisbar.* *** **Sie wollen meine (überwiegend englischen) Artikel auch per Email bekommen?**&#x20; **[Hier](https://pareto.space/u/ashoka@pareto.space#subscribe)** **können Sie sich eintragen für den Newsletter (max. 1-2 x pro Woche).** *** ### “Follow the Money” In Washington hat das große Sesselrücken begonnen: Tausende Wohnungen und Häuser werden gerade auf den Markt geschwemmt, die Suchanfragen nach Offshorebanken und Strafverteidigern explodiert. Die Ratten verlassen das sinkende Schiff, eine alte Nomenklatura fällt, eine neue wird errichtet. So ist Politik. Wie viel davon Inszenierung und wie viel echt ist, werden wir erst später erfahren. [](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F13c10c76-0ad9-4db8-b3f9-e5e83100c812_1040x1116.png) (Quelle: [X/@wikileaks](https://x.com/wikileaks/status/1890177866085855461?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1890177866085855461%7Ctwgr%5Ec7b04670001e6199207c6ed1c3bcf4ac8cf4d6d4%7Ctwcon%5Es1_\&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Feruption-bleachbit-wipe-hard-drive-offshore-bank-searches-dc-suggest-deep-state-panic)) Schon jetzt erfahren die Europäer allerdings von JD Vance, dass in Washington “ein neuer Sheriff in town” ist. [Die Rede auf der Münchener Sicherheitskonferenz](https://x.com/wikileaks/status/1890177866085855461?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1890177866085855461%7Ctwgr%5Ec7b04670001e6199207c6ed1c3bcf4ac8cf4d6d4%7Ctwcon%5Es1_\&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Feruption-bleachbit-wipe-hard-drive-offshore-bank-searches-dc-suggest-deep-state-panic) war eine Zäsur in den transatlantischen Beziehungen. JD Vance hat Europa die Leviten gelesen: Wir glaubten nicht mehr an die Meinungsfreiheit, und damit an die Demokratie; wir griffen in Wahlen ein, deindustrialisierten uns selbst, betrieben ideologische Beeinflussung, Zensur und Manipulation. Eine beeindruckende Rede eines früheren Trump-Verächters (er nannte ihn mal einen Betrüger und überlegte Hillary Clinton zu wählen). Und dann der „Killer-Satz“ an das Establishment: > *„Wenn Sie Angst vor den eigenen Bürgern haben gibt es nichts, was die USA für Sie tun können.“* Ja, Vance hat in vielem Recht, Europa ist ein sektiererischer Bürokratenkontinent, der ideologisch gekapert ist. Doch vielleicht hätte Vance etwas mehr darüber sprechen können, was die USA bereits „für Europa getan haben“, allein in den letzten Jahren: * Der Europäische Debattenraum wurde mit US-Steuergeldern manipuliert, [knapp 500 Mio USD. flossen durch die Kanäle von USAID und Co.](https://www.freischwebende-intelligenz.org/p/unterwanderter-journalismus-der-mediale) * Deindustrialisierung: Danke für die Sprengung von Nordstream, großer Bruder! * Zensur: waren das nicht auch die großen amerikanische Social Media Plattformen, siehe [Twitter-Files?](https://www.freischwebende-intelligenz.org/p/twitter-files) * Ach überhaupt, der ganze Verschwörungskomplex zu Corona, ist nicht die Corona-Connection im Kern ein Konsortium überwiegend amerikanischer Player? NGOs, öffentliche Gesundheitsbehörden, CIA, Überwachungsindustrie, Big Pharma im Verbund mit China. * Wer in den letzten Jahren von “Misinformation und Disinformation” sprach, benutzte exakt das USAID-Wording und derartige Beispiele gibt es viele. *** ANZEIGE: **Sie suchen nach dem einfachsten Weg, Bitcoin zu kaufen und selbst zu verwahren?**\*\*\*\*\*\* *Die* ***[Relai-App](https://relai.app/de/?af_xp=custom\&source_caller=ui\&pid=INFLUENCER\&is_retargeting=true\&af_click_lookback=7d\&shortlink=eo5zpzew\&af_channel=branded_url\&af_inactivity_window=30d\&c=Milosz%20Matuszek)*** *ist Europas erfolgreichste Bitcoin-App.* ***[Hier](https://relai.app/de/?af_xp=custom\&source_caller=ui\&pid=INFLUENCER\&is_retargeting=true\&af_click_lookback=7d\&shortlink=eo5zpzew\&af_channel=branded_url\&af_inactivity_window=30d\&c=Milosz%20Matuszek)*** *kaufen Sie Bitcoin in wenigen Schritten und können auch Sparpläne einrichten. Niemand hat Zugriff auf Ihre Bitcoin, außer Sie selbst.* ***Relai senkt jetzt die Gebühr auf 1%**, mit dem Referral-Code* ***MILOSZ*** *sparen Sie weitere 10%. (keine Finanzberatung). Disclaimer wg. EU-Mica-Regulierung: Die Dienste von Relai werden ausschließlich für Einwohner der Schweiz und Italiens empfohlen.*  *** Sprechen wir also zuerst vom Verrat Amerikas an der Welt, in Form der größten Psyop der Welt, sowie dem Biowaffenangriff in Form von Corona und mRNA, an dem amerikanische Behörden maßgeblich beteiligt waren. Die USA (oder der deep state?) sind scheinbar im Kalten Krieg mit der eigenen Bevölkerung und der Welt: * USAID und NIAID [finanzierten Coronavirusforschung](https://www.freischwebende-intelligenz.org/p/usaid-and-co-die-ersten-kopfe-der) in Wuhan, USAID finanzierte massiv die Bill & Melinda Gates Stiftung, [Impfprogramme](https://www.ivi.int/who-we-are/ivi-the-united-states/) sowie [GAVI](https://www.gavi.org/news/media-room/united-states-endorses-gavi-recommendation-us-116-billion-four-year-commitment), CEPI, Programme für [“reproductive health](https://2017-2020.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/documents/FPRH-factsheet_OCT2020.pdf)” [etc](https://www.mathematica.org/publications/wash-for-life-findings-from-an-evaluation-of-the-partnership-between-the-bill-and-melinda-gates-fdn). Die Liste der “joint ventures” von Gates und USAID ist lang. Und USAID finanzierte den Propagandaapparat. * Früher eichte die CIA Schriftsteller im [Congress for Culture Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congress_for_Cultural_Freedom), heute finanzieren sie Weiterbildungen und Medientrainings für Tausende Journalisten, auch in Europa. Die Presselandschaft wird wie bei [“Operation Mockingbird”](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NK1tfkESPVY\&t=20s) einfach weiter unterwandert. * Reuters bekam 9 Mio. vom US-Verteidigungsministerium und eine köstliche Programm-Beschreibung obendrein: [Millionen für social engineering und gesellschaftliche Täuschung,](https://www.usaspending.gov/award/CONT_AWD_FA865018C7886_9700_-NONE-_-NONE-) *[large societal deception](https://www.usaspending.gov/award/CONT_AWD_FA865018C7886_9700_-NONE-_-NONE-)* [(abgekürzt LSD)](https://www.usaspending.gov/award/CONT_AWD_FA865018C7886_9700_-NONE-_-NONE-). Ein Wink mit dem Zaunpfahl auf [“Mission Mind Control”](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMH5WgGFxlc), also Bewusstseinsexperimente der CIA, u.a. mit LSD? [](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe5184a90-1b9c-42c3-95a7-505f87b34cac_900x471.jpeg) - Ein paar Tröpfchen LSD dürfen nicht fehlen (rechts unten) Die Rede vom Verrat an den eigenen Werten in vasallenartigem Gehorsam reiht sich jedenfalls schlecht ein in den noch größeren Verrat der eigenen Werte und eine Form von Hochverrat am Bürger durch amerikanische Behörden. Was genau bleibt also vom Vorwurf von Vance? Ihr habt bei der von uns mitfinanzierten Propagandamaschinerie etwas zu gut mitgemacht. Watch your values! Die Rede von Vance sei Wahlbeeinflussung, eine Einmischung in „unsere Demokratie“, heißt es nun bei hiesigen Nomenklaturapolitikern. Wahlbeeinflussung durch Vance? Eine schöne Nebelkerze. Die größte Wahlbeeinflussung war doch die mit Milliarden USAID-Geld finanzierte ideologische Unterwanderung des europäischen Debattenraums, von Moldawien und der Ukraine bis Deutschland und Frankreich: Internews Network, Trusted News Initiativen, Factchecker, Kampagnen zu „Misinformation/Disinformation“ uvm. Der europäische Debattenraum wurde auf CIA-Narrativebene geeicht. Die Europäer sind konsterniert: Sie haben mitgemacht und werden jetzt von Vance „unter den Bus geworfen“. Sie stehen als die nützlichen Idioten da, die sie waren. Auch eine Form von Gaslighing: Bestrafung für Gehorsam. ### Das Business Modell des Philanthrokapitalismus Der Verrat der Werte, er zieht sich längst durch alle Ebenen von Bürokratie, Politik, Wirtschaft. Was eröffnet auch bessere Geschäftsmöglichkeiten als Gedankenkontrolle, Beeinflussung, autoritäre Einschüchterungsmethoden, durchgeführt von einem korporativen Machtapparat aus Politik, Polizei, Medien, Big Tech und Pharma? Unter denen, die wegen USAID am meisten aufheulen, ist Bill Gates. Zu diesem tauchen, welch Wunder, gerade überall Lobesartikel auf, in US-Sendungen wird er wieder als Gesundheitsexperte herumgereicht, warnt vor Millionen Toten, wenn die Hilfen, die in seine Gesundheitsprogramme von USAID flossen, gestoppt werden. Nur am Rande: Gerade gab es einen Ebolaausbruch in Uganda. [Die WHO lobt den schnellen Impfstart.](https://www.watson.ch/international/gesundheit/825991708-ebola-ausbruch-in-uganda-who-lobt-zuegigen-impfstart) Immer diese Zufälle, *pandamic preparedness* sei Dank, Herr Gates! USAID und Gates sind [ziemlich beste Freunde](https://www.gatesfoundation.org/Ideas/Media-Center/Press-Releases/2010/06/Gates-Foundation-and-USAID-Announce-Innovative-Fund-to-Incentivize-Mobile-Money-Services-in-Haiti): Die weltgrößte Privatstiftung von Eugeniker Gates und eine CIA-Frontorganisation in trauter Verbundenheit. Was soll da anderes rauskommen, als die größte Psyop der Welt? Nein, USAID hat nicht in 1.6 Mrd. Dollar in deutsche Medien gesteckt, wie kürzlich per falschem Screenshot auf X verbreitet wurde. Die EU steckte dafür [132 Mio. Euro in journalistische EU-PR.](https://archive.ph/Ntehp) Doch es blieb genug Geld für die Medien übrig, um den Corona-Scam zu glauben, zu verbreiten – und sich boostern zu lassen. [](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc4119cc3-7237-44f3-a714-173650a675b6_458x768.png) So wird ein Schuh draus: (Netzfund) Darüber hinaus steckte USAID Milliarden in Gavi und CEPI, die Gatesschen Impfkonsortien mit Sitz in der Schweiz. Sowie in zig andere Programme der Gatesstiftung. Teils floss Geld zurück. Ein Geben und Nehmen. All das wäre für ein James-Bond-Drehbuch zu viel des Guten und Undenkbaren: Wir haben es bei der Corona-Connection mit einer Verschwörung von Geheimdienstkreisen, China und Philanthrokapitalisten zu tun. Deren teils geheimdienstfinanzierten Outlets (GAVI, CEPI), aber auch die WHO genießen in der Schweiz Steuervorteile und Immunität, wie eine Botschaft. Und so wird ein Business-Modell daraus: * Man suche sich ein Tätigkeitsfeld, Anliegen oder ein sonstiges Vorhaben der sozialen Ingenieurskunst aus. Bei Gates: Bevölkerungskontrolle und -reduktion, Impfstoffverkauf. 2010-2020 sollte die Dekade der Impfstoffe werden – und wurde es. Gates Gebaren konnte man [2015 in einer kritischen Untersuchung](https://archive.globalpolicy.org/images/pdfs/GPFEurope/Philanthropic_Power_online.pdf) von “Misereor” und “Brot für die Welt” studieren. * Dann definiere man Strukturen, Mechanismen und Businessmodelle zur Umsetzung. In einer [Studie von USAID, BMGF sowie Rockefeller-Stiftung](https://web.archive.org/web/20210309193849/https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/documents/1864/AI-in-Global-Health_webFinal_508.pdf) zum Einsatz von KI im Gesundheitsbereich liest man es exemplarisch schwarz auf weiß: *“If evidence is promising, define business case – Wenn die Beweise vielversprechend sind, entwickle eine Geschäftsidee.”* [](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5d42b19-4f01-4d68-9fde-66d2ad7b71b0_836x222.png) * Es erfolgt ein Investment in die Geschäftsidee. Das nennt sich dann Program-Related Investment, und nicht nur “grant”, wie die [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/13/business/from-the-gates-foundation-direct-investment-not-just-grants.html?_r=0) früher noch kritisierte. Hier wird der angebliche Altruismus zum systemischen legalen Interessenkonflikt. Katastrophen zahlen sich jetzt aus. * WHO, Partnerorganisationen, News-Netzwerke werden auf die Idee geeicht, das übliche PR-Geschäft. * Dann noch schnell ein Planspiel, in Wuhan ist der USAID-Partner mit der gain of function-Forschung nämlich schon bereit für den Lab-Leak. Investments in Curevac, Biontech & Co. sind bereits getätigt, das politische Feld in Sachen Epidemic Preparedness ohnehin vorgeimpft (und beteiligt, hunderte Millionen gingen von Deutschland an die BMGF und CEPI, Gavi). In dieser Phase hängt der Erfolg der Operation nur noch davon ab, wie gut (und wie lange) man es schafft, das Overton-Fenster in den Medien (also das, was relevant ist) mit immer neuen Propaganda-Erzählungen und Angstbildern vollzuhängen, die sozialen Medien zurechtzustutzen und Kritiker zu dezimieren: Fertig ist der größte kriminelle Coup der Geschichte. Alle Beteiligten gewinnen: Gates vedient an den Impfstoffen, kann das Geld steuerbefreit in der Stiftung für neue Machtgewinnungsfeldzüge einsetzen, die CIA hat ein erfolgreiches Massenhypnose-Experiment durchgeführt und China konnte die Weltwirtschaft hinter sich lassen, intern die Pandemie schnell besiegen und dem Westen seine sehr schnell in Vergessenheit geratenen Bürger- und Menschenrechte vorhalten. Diese Rechte fielen ungefähr so schnell, wie die Menschen in chinesischen Propagandavideos auf der Straße zusammensackten. Nur in China übrigens, nirgendwo anders. *** **Sie wollen meine (überwiegend englischen) Artikel auch per Email bekommen?** **[Hier](https://pareto.space/u/ashoka@pareto.space#subscribe)** **können Sie sich eintragen für den Newsletter (max. 1-2 x pro Woche).** *** Philanthrokapitalismus bedeutet übersetzt, den Anreiz auszuleben, mit Kontrollphantasien, Social Engineering und Technokratie zugleich Geld zu verdienen, Steuern zu sparen, und Macht zu gewinnen. Ein Honeypot für schwerreiche Psychopathen, die munter nach Gutsherrenart an der Bevölkerung herumschrauben wollen. Der Philanthrokapitalismus eines Gates, Soros & Co ist das gefährlichste korporatistische Räuberbaronentum der Neuzeit. Der Staat kann legal für private Machterreichungszwecke ausgenommen werden – zum Schaden der Bürger. Es gab bei Corona viele Profiteure. Und viele Opfer. Über beide werden wir in naher Zukunft noch viel mehr erfahren. Die Welle der Aufarbeitung rollt. Und die Konsequenzen? Ein Bill Gates sollte vielleicht daran denken, nicht erst dann zu flüchten, wenn die Epstein-Files veröffentlicht werden, sondern schon früher. In der amerikanischen Verfassung gibt es nur einen Strafrechtsparagraphen und dieser lautet so: Artikel III, Abschnitt 3 der US-Verfassung: *„Hochverrat gegen die Vereinigten Staaten besteht ausschließlich darin, Krieg gegen sie zu führen oder ihren Feinden Beistand und Unterstützung zu leisten.“* Die Corona-Impfkampagne hat die Gesundheit der Amerikaner, auch der von Soldaten massiv geschadet, wie akut erhöhte Krankenstände und Nebenwirkungsmeldungen zeigten. Damit wurde Feinden der USA (mindestens jede verfeindete Kriegspartei) Beistand geleistet. Eines wissen wir schon jetzt: So in etwa ist der “Source Code” des Bösen programmiert. *** ***You prefer reading me in English?*** *You can find my first uncensorable articles written with our Pareto client via Nostr,* ***[clicking on this link.](https://pareto.space/u/ashoka@pareto.space)*** *Discover other authors at* ***[Pareto.space/read.](https://pareto.space/read)(click on the Pareto button to see our first authors).*** [](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc33bfce1-1a89-42ff-a89f-e1fbd7edfac4_2382x1272.png) *** ***Join the marketplace of ideas!** We are building a publishing ecosystem on Nostr for citizen-journalism, starting with a client for blogging and newsletter distribution. Sound money and sound information should finally be in the hands of the people, right? Want to learn more about the [Pareto Project](https://pareto.space/en)? Zap me, if you want to contribute (all Zaps go to the project).* *Are you a publication or journalist and want to be part of it, test us, migrate your content to Nostr? Write to **<team@pareto.space>*** **Not yet on** **[Nostr](https://nostr.com/)** **and want the full experience?** Easy onboarding via **[Start.](https://start.njump.me/)** We have started a crowdfunding campaign on **[Geyser.](https://geyser.fund/project/pareto?hero=geyser)** **We are in the Top 3 in February, thank you for the support!**  *** **Sie wollen meine Artikel auch per Email bekommen?** **[Hier](https://pareto.space/u/ashoka@pareto.space#subscribe)** **können Sie sich eintragen für den Newsletter (max. 1-2 x pro Woche).**

@ 5afdec5b:2d631be1

# Bitcoin: The Future of Collateralized Loans _Bitcoin is transforming the financial landscape, not just as a digital currency but arguably as the best form of collateral for unlocking liquidity. At Lendasat, we're pioneering this shift by working towards a trustless, self-custodial lending platform that lets users borrow against their Bitcoin without selling it. Let's explore Bitcoin's unmatched value as collateral and how Lendasat's innovative approach - with Discreet Log Contracts (DLCs) and integrations - make borrowing secure, simple, and practical. Bitcoin unlocks cash access without letting it go._  --- ## Why Bitcoin Stands Out as Collateral ##### Bitcoin's intrinsic properties set it apart from traditional assets like real estate or stocks: 🌐 **Decentralized Control:** No intermediaries, ensuring transparency and independence. 💧 **Ultimate Liquidity:** Bitcoin is one of the most liquid assets in the world, tradable 24/7 without interruption. Unlike traditional markets with public holidays, and weekend downtime, Bitcoin operates continuously, allowing transactions at any time from anywhere. ✅ **Capped Supply:** Only 21 million coins will ever exist, shielding it from dilution/inflation. 🔒 **Robust Security:** Backed by cryptography and a global mining network, Bitcoin is portable, durable, and verifiable. These qualities make Bitcoin an ideal foundation for lending, a vision Lendasat brings to life. Our app leverages Bitcoin's censorship-resistant nature to offer a collateral option that traditional assets can't rival. ## The "Buy, Borrow, Die" Strategy: A Smart Money Move Now Available For Everyone  > For those unfamiliar, the "buy, borrow, die" strategy involves buying assets, borrowing against them for liquidity, and holding until death to pass on the assets with a stepped-up basis, minimizing taxes. Savvy investors and businesses often borrow against their holdings rather than sell them. Why? It's a tax-efficient way to access cash while retaining ownership and future gains. With Bitcoin, this approach is even more compelling: 🏷️ **Tax Advantage:** No capital gains taxes when borrowing instead of selling. 🔒 **Ownership Retention:** Keep your Bitcoin and its potential upside. 📈 **Growth Exposure:** Benefit from Bitcoin's long-term appreciation. Lendasat's motto, **"Get the bread you need without having to part with your corn"** encapsulates this strategy. We empower users to tap into their Bitcoin's value without sacrificing their stake in its future. Bitcoin gives access to practices that were previously reserved to the wealthiest individuals and companies. ℹ️ **Note:** Tax benefits may vary depending on your jurisdiction. Please consult with a tax professional. ## Lendasat's Vision: Seamless Lending Process ##### Lendasat, in its public release, will make Bitcoin-backed loans straightforward and secure. Here's how it works: 1. Secure Your Bitcoin: Lock your BTC in a Discreet Log Contract (DLC), a "smart contract" that eliminates counterparty risk while keeping you in control 2. Borrow Stablecoins: Receive stablecoins at an average 50% loan-to-value ratio (e.g., $50,000 for $100,000 in BTC), balancing liquidity with safety. 3. Spend Anywhere: Use our spending tools and off-ramps integrations to spend loan funds effortlessly in the real world, as an example, with a Virtual Card for online shopping - launched in our closed beta. This peer-to-peer process makes KYC optional, prioritizing privacy and accessibility. ## Who Benefits from Lendasat? ##### Our app serves a wide range of users: **Borrowers:** - Unlock cash without selling Bitcoin. - Enjoy tax savings and growth potential. - Spend easily with the virtual debit card. **Lenders:** - Earn guaranteed returns on overcollateralized loans. - Reduce risk with Bitcoin's security. - Diversify investments with a cutting-edge asset. Lendasat's self-custodial design ensures both parties retain autonomy, with DLCs handling the heavy lifting. ## Real-World Applications ##### Bitcoin collateral isn't just for individuals - it's a game-changer for businesses: **Businesses:** Fund expansion or operations without diluting equity or selling BTC. **Miners:** Cover costs like electricity bills by borrowing against mined Bitcoin, avoiding sales at low prices. Lendasat supports these scenarios with flexible solutions, and we're exploring enhancements like on-ramps integration for bank transfer repayments to streamline the experience. ## The Future of Bitcoin Collateral ##### Bitcoin's role as collateral is only beginning. Emerging possibilities include: **Credit Lines:** Bitcoin-backed spending options akin to traditional credit. **Institutional Use:** Large-scale financing for companies and even governments. While Bitcoin is currently primarily used as a store of value, its potential as a medium of exchange is still developing. Lendasat's platform is designed to adapt to Bitcoin's evolving role in the financial ecosystem, whether it remains a collateral asset or becomes widely used for transactions. Lendasat is driving this future by refining our platform, focusing on user-friendly on/off ramps and practical spending tools to make Bitcoin loans a financial mainstay. ## What Sets Lendasat Apart? ##### Lendasat isn't just another lending platform - it aims to be the leader in Bitcoin finance: **Trustless System:** DLCs ensure security without third-party custody. **Practical Tools:** The virtual debit card bridges DeFi and daily life. **User-Centric:** Optional KYC, no credit checks, and flexible repayment options in development. **Mission-Driven:** We're here to empower financial freedom through Bitcoin. These strengths make Lendasat the premier choice for leveraging Bitcoin as collateral. ## Challenges and Considerations ##### While Bitcoin-backed loans offer many advantages, there are risks to consider: **Volatility:** Bitcoin's price can be volatile, which may lead to liquidation if the value drops significantly. **User Experience:** Managing DLCs and understanding the lending process may be complex for some users. At Lendasat, we're actively working to mitigate these risks through user education, robust platform design, and ongoing development of user-friendly features. # Conclusion: Bitcoin's Full Potential Bitcoin isn't just money - It is the best collateral in the making ever discovered, blending security, liquidity, and growth. Lendasat brings this power to your fingertips with a platform that's secure, intuitive, and built for the future. Whether you're funding a dream or growing a business, we've got you covered. Ready to borrow without selling? Dive into [https://Lendasat.com](https://Lendasat.com) and see how your Bitcoin can work harder for you. ## Quick Comparison: Traditional vs. Lendasat's Bitcoin Collateral  This snapshot underscores why Bitcoin, paired with Lendasat, is rewriting the rules of collateral. ## Help Us To Achieve Our Vision! Want to be part of the journey? Join our waiting list or, even better, connect with us on Discord to get yourself an invite code and try our app and share your thoughts! Stay tuned, and as always, stay sovereign. 

@ 95cb4330:96db706c

Adopting Inversion Thinking, a mental model championed by Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett, can enhance decision-making and problem-solving by focusing on potential pitfalls to avoid. This approach involves considering the opposite of your desired outcome to identify and mitigate risks effectively. --- ## Understanding Inversion Thinking - **Definition:** Inversion Thinking entails approaching problems by asking, "What could cause failure?" rather than solely focusing on achieving success. This perspective helps in uncovering obstacles and errors that might be overlooked when only considering positive outcomes. --- ## Examples in Practice - **Charlie Munger's Approach:** Munger emphasizes solving problems by inverting them. For instance, instead of asking how to be successful, he suggests identifying what actions could lead to failure and then avoiding those actions. [FS.BLOG](https://fs.blog) - **Warren Buffett's Investment Strategy:** Buffett applies inversion by considering what factors could cause an investment to fail, such as poor management or unsustainable business models, and avoids investments with these red flags. --- ## Implementing Inversion Thinking 1. **Define the Problem:** Clearly articulate the challenge or goal you are addressing. 2. **Invert the Problem:** Ask what actions or factors could lead to the opposite of your desired outcome. 3. **Identify Preventative Measures:** Determine strategies to avoid these negative actions or factors. 4. **Apply Insights to Decision-Making:** Use the information gathered to inform your choices, focusing on avoiding identified pitfalls. --- ## Action Step Consider a current goal or project. Apply inversion by asking, "What steps could lead to failure in this endeavor?" List these potential pitfalls and develop strategies to prevent them, thereby increasing the likelihood of success. --- By integrating Inversion Thinking into your decision-making process, you can proactively address potential challenges, leading to more robust and resilient strategies. ---

@ 95cb4330:96db706c

Jeff Bezos, Sam Altman, and Elon Musk follow a critical decision-making principle: never let past investments dictate future choices. Instead of holding onto failing projects due to time, money, or effort already spent, successful entrepreneurs cut losses quickly and reallocate resources toward higher-impact opportunities. --- ## Why Avoiding Sunk Costs Matters - **Frees Up Resources for Better Opportunities:** The more time you spend on a failing project, the fewer resources you have to invest in something that could succeed. - **Prevents Emotional Bias in Decision-Making:** Many people stick with bad decisions because they feel committed, rather than assessing future potential objectively. - **Increases Agility & Competitive Edge:** Being able to pivot quickly allows you to adapt to market changes faster than competitors. --- ## Example in Action: Bezos, Musk & Altman - **Jeff Bezos & the Fire Phone:** Amazon heavily invested in its Fire Phone, but when it failed, Bezos shut it down and redirected efforts to Alexa and AWS, which became massive successes. - **Elon Musk & Tesla Model S Plaid+:** Tesla had planned a Model S Plaid+ variant, but Musk canceled it, realizing it no longer made strategic sense in Tesla’s long-term roadmap. - **Sam Altman & Startup Strategy:** Altman constantly advises founders to evaluate if they’re on the best path—not just the one they’ve already invested in. He encourages entrepreneurs to pivot fast rather than waste time on failing ideas. --- ## How to Apply This Principle 1. **Identify Projects You’re Holding Onto for the Wrong Reasons** *Ask:* Would I start this today knowing what I now know? 2. **Focus on Future Potential, Not Past Investment** Look at the expected future return rather than the money or effort already spent. 3. **Be Willing to Pivot or Cut Losses Quickly** If a project no longer aligns with your long-term vision, redirect resources elsewhere. --- ## Action Step: Audit Your Current Projects - 👉 Are you continuing something just because of past investment rather than future potential? - 👉 If so, consider pivoting or cutting it today. --- By avoiding the sunk cost fallacy, you can stay flexible, maximize impact, and ensure you’re always focused on the best opportunities ahead.

@ f6488c62:c929299d

เมื่อกระแสข่าวเรื่อง Government Shutdown ของสหรัฐฯ เริ่มร้อนแรงขึ้นเรื่อย ๆ โดยแพลตฟอร์มอย่าง Polymarket บ่งชี้ว่าความเป็นไปได้ของเหตุการณ์นี้พุ่งขึ้นถึง 50% หลายคนอาจสงสัยว่ามันเกี่ยวอะไรกับตลาดคริปโต โดยเฉพาะกลุ่ม เหรียญมีม (Meme Coins) ที่ดูเหมือนจะอยู่นอกเหนือระบบเศรษฐกิจแบบดั้งเดิม แต่ความจริงแล้ว การปิดตัวของรัฐบาลกลางสหรัฐฯ อาจส่งผลกระทบทั้งทางตรงและทางอ้อมต่อตลาดเหรียญมีมอย่างหลีกเลี่ยงไม่ได้ มาดูกันว่า โอกาส และ ความเสี่ยง ของสาวกเหรียญมีมในสถานการณ์เช่นนี้มีอะไรบ้าง 🎯 โอกาสสำหรับเหรียญมีม กระแสการเงินไหลเข้าสินทรัพย์เสี่ยงสูง (High-risk assets) หากนักลงทุนเชื่อว่า Shutdown จะทำให้ธนาคารกลางสหรัฐ (Fed) ต้องผ่อนคลายนโยบายการเงินในอนาคตเพื่อลดผลกระทบทางเศรษฐกิจ เงินทุนอาจไหลเข้าสินทรัพย์เสี่ยงอย่างคริปโต รวมถึงเหรียญมีมที่มักมีการเคลื่อนไหวรุนแรงเกินจริง เหรียญอย่าง DOGE, SHIBA หรือ PEPE อาจได้ประโยชน์จากความคลั่งไคล้และกระแส "ซื้อเพราะมันตลก" ที่เคยเกิดขึ้นในอดีต ชุมชนออนไลน์มีบทบาทมากขึ้น การปิดตัวของหน่วยงานรัฐอาจกระตุ้นความไม่พอใจในหมู่ประชาชน ส่งผลให้การเคลื่อนไหวทางออนไลน์เพิ่มขึ้น สังคมคริปโต โดยเฉพาะกลุ่มเหรียญมีม อาจใช้โอกาสนี้เพื่อสร้างกระแสหรือหาเหตุผลสนุก ๆ ในการผลักดันเหรียญ ตัวอย่าง: แคมเปญ "Shutdown? Buy DOGE!" หรือ "Government off, PEPE on!" อาจกลายเป็นไวรัลได้ Narrative ใหม่ ๆ เพื่อดึงนักลงทุน โปรเจกต์เหรียญมีมอาจสร้างเรื่องราวใหม่ ๆ เพื่อเชื่อมโยงกับเหตุการณ์ เช่น การล้อเลียนการเมืองหรือสร้างโทเค็นเชิงสัญลักษณ์เพื่อประท้วงรัฐบาล ดึงดูดนักลงทุนที่มองหาทางออกจากความวุ่นวายของระบบดั้งเดิม ⚠️ ความเสี่ยงสำหรับเหรียญมีม ภาวะเสี่ยงต่ำ (Risk-off sentiment) ในช่วงแรกของ Shutdown นักลงทุนมักถอยกลับไปถือ เงินดอลลาร์ (USD) หรือสินทรัพย์ปลอดภัย เช่น ทองคำ ส่งผลให้ตลาดคริปโตตกลงอย่างหนัก รวมถึงเหรียญมีมที่มีความผันผวนสูงและไม่มีมูลค่าพื้นฐาน ความเชื่อมั่นที่ลดลงนี้อาจทำให้ราคาเหรียญมีมดิ่งลงแบบไร้จุดหมาย ขาดสภาพคล่อง (Liquidity crunch) หากเศรษฐกิจชะงัก นักลงทุนรายย่อยอาจไม่มีเงินสดมาปั่นราคาหรือเก็งกำไรเหรียญมีมได้เหมือนเดิม ทำให้การเคลื่อนไหวของราคาเหรียญมีมซบเซา เหรียญเล็ก ๆ ที่อาศัยชุมชนเป็นหลัก อาจเผชิญกับปัญหาสภาพคล่องอย่างรุนแรง ความเสี่ยงด้านกฎระเบียบ แม้ Shutdown จะทำให้หน่วยงานกำกับดูแลบางส่วนหยุดทำงาน แต่ในระยะยาว หากรัฐบาลกลับมาพร้อมนโยบายคุมเข้ม ตลาดคริปโตอาจเจอแรงกดดันเพิ่มเติม ซึ่งอาจส่งผลลบต่อเหรียญมีมที่มักถูกมองว่าเป็นสินทรัพย์ "เก็งกำไรสูงสุด" 🚀 สรุป: เตรียมตัวรับมือยังไง? นักลงทุนสายเหรียญมีม ควรติดตามข่าวสารทั้งเรื่อง Shutdown และทิศทางของ Fed อย่างใกล้ชิด เพราะเหตุการณ์เหล่านี้สามารถเปลี่ยนทิศทางตลาดได้อย่างฉับพลัน วางแผนการลงทุน โดยแบ่งพอร์ตอย่างชาญฉลาด ไม่ทุ่มหมดหน้าตักกับเหรียญมีม และเตรียมเงินสดไว้เผื่อโอกาสซื้อเพิ่มหากราคาตกหนัก สร้างและติดตามกระแสออนไลน์ หากคุณเป็นแฟนเหรียญมีม การเคลื่อนไหวในโซเชียลมีเดียอาจเป็นตัวแปรสำคัญในการดันราคา ดังนั้นการร่วมชุมชนหรือมีส่วนร่วมในแคมเปญต่าง ๆ อาจช่วยให้เหรียญมีมของคุณกลับมาเป็นที่สนใจ สุดท้ายแล้ว Government Shutdown อาจเป็นทั้งโอกาสและความเสี่ยง แต่สำหรับสาวกเหรียญมีมแล้ว บางที "ความวุ่นวาย" อาจเป็นเชื้อไฟที่ทำให้ตลาดนี้ลุกเป็นไฟได้อีกครั้ง 🔥

@ 8947a945:9bfcf626

## Chef's notes https://video.nostr.build/ea19333ab7f700a6557b6f52f1f8cfe214671444687fa7ea56a18e5d751fe0a9.mp4 https://video.nostr.build/bcae8d39e22f66689d51f34e44ecabdf7a57b5099cc456e3e0f29446b1dfd0de.mp4 ## Details - ⏲️ Prep time: 5 min - 🍳 Cook time: 5 min - 🍽️ Servings: 1 ## Ingredients - ไข่ 1 - 2 ฟอง - ข้าวโอ๊ต 3 - 4 ช้อน ## Directions 1. ตอกไข่ + ตีไข่ 2. ปรุงรส พริกไทย หรือ ซอสถั่วเหลืองตามชอบ 3. ใส่ข้าวโอ๊ต 3 - 4 ช้อน 4. ใส่ถั่วลิสงอบ 1 - 2 หยิบมือ 5. เทน้ำใส่พอท่วมข้าวโอ๊ต 6. เข้าไมโครเวฟ ไฟแรง 1 - 2 นาที

@ da0b9bc3:4e30a4a9

Hello Stackers! Welcome on into the ~Music Corner of the Saloon! A place where we Talk Music. Share Tracks. Zap Sats. So stay a while and listen. 🚨Don't forget to check out the pinned items in the territory homepage! You can always find the latest weeklies there!🚨 🚨Subscribe to the territory to ensure you never miss a post! 🚨 originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/899482

@ 1c19eb1a:e22fb0bc

After my first major review of [Primal on Android](https://www.nostr-reviews.com/post/1733635103705/), we're going to go a very different direction for this next review. Primal is your standard "Twitter clone" type of kind 1 note client, now branching into long-form. They also have a team of developers working on making it one of the best clients to fill that use-case. By contrast, this review will not be focusing on any client at all. Not even an "other stuff" client. Instead, we will be reviewing a very useful tool created and maintained by nostr:npub1w4uswmv6lu9yel005l3qgheysmr7tk9uvwluddznju3nuxalevvs2d0jr5 called #Amber. For those unfamiliar with Amber, it is an #Android application dedicated to managing your signing keys, and allowing you to log into various #Nostr applications without having to paste in your private key, better known as your #nsec. It is not recommended to paste your nsec into various applications because they each represent another means by which it could be compromised, and anyone who has your nsec can post as you. On Nostr, your #npub is your identity, and your signature using your private key is considered absolute proof that any given note, reaction, follow update, or profile change was authorized by the rightful owner of that identity. It happens less often these days, but early on, when the only way to try out a new client was by inputting your nsec, users had their nsec compromised from time to time, or they would suspect that their key may have been compromised. When this occurs, there is no way to recover your account, or set a new private key, deprecating the previous one. The only thing you can do is start over from scratch, letting everyone know that your key has been compromised and to follow you on your new npub. If you use Amber to log into other Nostr apps, you significantly reduce the likelihood that your private key will be compromised, because only one application has access to it, and all other applications reach out to Amber to sign any events. This isn't quite as secure as storing your private key on a separate device that isn't connected to the internet whatsoever, like many of us have grown accustomed to with securing our #Bitcoin, but then again, an online persona isn't nearly as important to secure for most of us as our entire life savings. Amber is the first application of its kind for managing your Nostr keys on a mobile device. nostr:npub1w4uswmv6lu9yel005l3qgheysmr7tk9uvwluddznju3nuxalevvs2d0jr5 didn't merely develop the application, but literally created the specification for accomplishing external signing on Android which can be found in [NIP-55](https://github.com/nostr-protocol/nips/blob/master/55.md). Unfortunately, Amber is only available for Android. A signer application for iOS is in the works from nostr:npub1yaul8k059377u9lsu67de7y637w4jtgeuwcmh5n7788l6xnlnrgs3tvjmf, but is not ready for use at this time. There is also a new mobile signer app for Android and iOS called Nowser, but I have not yet had a chance to try this app out. From a cursory look at the Android version, it is indeed in the very early stages of development and cannot be compared with Amber. This review of Amber is current as of version 3.2.5.  ## Overall Impression Score: **4.5** / 5 I cannot speak highly enough about Amber as a tool that every Nostr user on Android should start using if they are not already. When the day comes that we have more options for well-developed signer apps on mobile, my opinion may very well change, but until then Amber is what we have available to us. Even so, it is an incredibly well thought-out and reliable tool for securing your nsec. Despite being the only well-established Android signer available for Android, Amber ***can*** be compared with other external signing methods available on other platforms. Even with more competition in this arena, though, Amber still holds up incredibly well. If you are signing into web applications on a desktop, I still would recommend using a browser extension like #Alby or #Nos2x, as the experience is usually faster, more seamless, and far more web apps support this signing method ([NIP-07](https://github.com/nostr-protocol/nips/blob/master/07.md)) than currently support the two methods employed by Amber. Nevertheless that gap is definitely narrowing. A running list I created of applications that support login and signing with Amber can be found here: [Nostr Clients with External Signer Support](nostr:naddr1qvzqqqrcvgpzpde8f55w86vrhaeqmd955y4rraw8aunzxgxstsj7eyzgntyev2xtqydhwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnzwf5kw6r5vfhkcapwdejhgtcpr4mhxue69uhkg6ttv95k7ue3x5cnwtnwdaehgu339e3k7mf0qq4xummnw3ez6cmvd9jkuarn94mkjarg94jhsar9wfhxzmpdwd5kwmn9wgkhxatswphhyaqrcy76t) I have run into relatively few bugs in my extensive use of Amber for all of my mobile signing needs. Occasionally the application crashes when trying to send it a signing request from a couple of applications, but I would not be surprised if this is no fault of Amber at all, and rather the fault of those specific apps, since it works flawlessly with the vast majority of apps that support either [NIP-55](https://github.com/nostr-protocol/nips/blob/master/55.md) or [NIP-46](https://github.com/nostr-protocol/nips/blob/master/46.md) login. I also believe that mobile is the ideal platform to use for this type of application. First, because most people use Nostr clients on their phone more than on a desktop. There are, of course, exceptions to that, but in general we spend more time on our phones when interacting online. New users are also more likely to be introduced to Nostr by a friend having them download a Nostr client on their phone than on a PC, and that can be a prime opportunity to introduce the new user to protecting their private key. Finally, I agree with the following assessment from nostr:npub1jlrs53pkdfjnts29kveljul2sm0actt6n8dxrrzqcersttvcuv3qdjynqn. nostr:nevent1qqsw0r6gzn05xg67h5q2xkplwsuzedjxw9lf7ntrxjl8ajm350fcyugpz4mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduhsyg9hyaxj3clfswlhyrd5kjsj5v04clhjvgeq6pwztmysfzdvn93gevpsgqqqye9qd30q62 The one downside to Amber is that it will be quite foreign for new users. That is partially unavoidable with Nostr, since folks are not accustomed to public/private key cryptography in general, let alone using a private key to log into websites or social media apps. However, the initial signup process is a bit cumbersome if Amber is being used as the means of initially generating a key pair. I think some of this could be foregone at start-up in favor of streamlining onboarding, and then encourage the user to back-up their private key at a later time. ## Features Amber has some features that may surprise you, outside of just storing your private key and signing requests from your favorite Nostr clients. It is a full key management application, supporting multiple accounts, various backup methods, and even the ability to authorize other users to access a Nostr profile you control. ### Android Signing This is the signing method where Amber really shines in both speed and ease of use. Any Android application that supports this standard, and even some progressive web-apps that can be installed to your Android's home-screen, can very quickly and seamlessly connect with Amber to authorize anything that you need signed with your nsec. All you have to do is select "Login with Amber" in clients like #Amethyst or #0xChat and the app will reach out to Amber for all signing requests from there on out. If you had previously signed into the app with your nsec, you will first need to log out, then choose the option to use Amber when you log back in.  This is a massive deal, because everything you do on Nostr requires a signature from your private key. Log in? Needs a signature. Post a "GM" note? Needs a signature. Follow someone who zapped your note? Needs a signature. Zap them back? You guessed it; needs a signature. When you paste your private key into an application, it will automatically sign a lot of these actions without you ever being asked for approval, but you will quickly realize just how many things the client is doing on your behalf when Amber is asking you to approve them each time. Now, this can also get quite annoying after a while. I recommend using the setting that allows Amber to automatically sign for basic functions, which will cut down on some of the authorization spam. Once you have been asked to authorize the same type of action a few times, you can also toggle the option to automatically authorize that action in the future. Don't worry, though, you have full control to require Amber to ask you for permission again if you want to be alerted each time, and this toggle is specific to each application, so it's not a blanket approval for all Nostr clients you connect with.  This method of signing is just as fast as signing via browser extension on web clients, which users may be more accustomed to. Everything is happening locally on the device, so it can be very snappy and secure. ### Nostr Connect/Bunker Signing This next method of signing has a bit of a delay, because it is using a Nostr relay to send encrypted information back and forth between the app the user is interacting with and Amber to obtain signatures remotely. It isn't a significant delay most of the time, but it is just enough to be noticeable. Also, unlike the previous signing method that would automatically switch to Amber as the active application when a signing request is sent, this method only sends you a notification that you must be watching for. This can lead to situations where you are wondering why something isn't working in a client you signed into remotely, because it is waiting on you to authorize the action and you didn't notice the notification from Amber. As you use the application, you get used to the need to check for such authorization requests from time to time, or when something isn't working as expected.  By default, Amber will use relay.nsec.app to communicate with whichever Nostr app you are connecting to. You can set a different relay for this purpose, if you like, though not just any relay will support the event kinds that Amber uses for remote signing. You can even run your own relay just for your own signing purposes. In fact, the creator of Amber has a relay application you can run on your phone, called Citrine, that can be used for signing with any web app you are using locally on your phone. This is definitely more of an advanced option, but it is there for you if you want it. For most users, sticking with relay.nsec.app will be just fine, especially since the contents of the events sent back and forth for signing are all encrypted. Something many users may not realize is that this remote signing feature allows for issuing signing permissions to team members. For instance, if anyone ever joined me in writing reviews, I could issue them a connection string from Amber, and limit their permissions to just posting long-form draft events. Anything else they tried to do would require my explicit approval each time. Moreover, I could revoke those permissions if I ever felt they were being abused, without the need to start over with a whole new npub. Of course, this requires that your phone is online whenever a team member is trying to sign using the connection string you issued, and it requires you pay attention to your notifications so you can approve or reject requests you have not set to auto-approve. However, this is probably only useful for small teams, and larger businesses will want to find a more robust solution for managing access to their npub, such as Keycast from nostr:npub1zuuajd7u3sx8xu92yav9jwxpr839cs0kc3q6t56vd5u9q033xmhsk6c2uc. The method for establishing a connection between Amber and a Nostr app for remote signing can vary for each app. Most, at minimum, will support obtaining a connection string from Amber that starts with "bunker://" and pasting it in at the time of login. Then you just need to approve the connection request from Amber and the client will log you in and send any subsequent signing requests to Amber using the same connection string.  Some clients will also offer the option to scan a QR code to connect the client to Amber. This is quite convenient, but just remember that this also means the client is setting which relay will be used for communication between the two. Clients with this option will also have a connection string you can copy and paste into Amber to achieve the same purpose. For instance, you may need this option if you are trying to connect to an app on your phone and therefore can't scan the QR code using Amber on the same phone.  ### Multiple Accounts Amber does not lock you into using it with only a single set of keys. You can add all of your Nostr "accounts" to Amber and use it for signing events for each independently. Of course, Nostr doesn't actually have "accounts" in the traditional sense. Your identity is simply your key-pair, and Amber stores and accesses each private key as needed.  When first signing in using native Android signing as described above, Amber will default to whichever account was most recently selected, but you can switch to the account that is needed before approving the request. After initial login, Amber will automatically detect the account that the signing request is for. ### Key Backup & Restore Amber allows multiple ways to back up your private key. As most users would expect, you can get your standard nsec and copy/paste it to a password manager, but you can also obtain your private key as a list of mnemonic seed words, an encrypted version of your key called an ncryptsec, or even a QR code of your nsec or ncryptsec.  Additionally, in order to gain access to this information, Amber requires you to enter your device's PIN or use biometric authentication. This isn't cold-storage level protection for your private key by any means, especially since your phone is an internet connected device and does not store your key within a secure element, but it is about as secure as you can ask for while having your key accessible for signing Nostr events. ### Tor Support While Amber does not have Tor support within the app itself, it does support connecting to Tor through Orbot. This would be used with remote signing so that Amber would not connect directly over clearnet to the relay used for communication with the Nostr app requesting the signature. Instead, Amber would connect through Tor, so the relay would not see your IP address. This means you can utilize the remote signing option without compromising your anonymity.  ### Additional Security Amber allows the user the option to require either biometric or PIN authentication before approving signing requests. This can provide that extra bit of assurance that no one will be able to sign events using your private key if they happen to gain access to your phone. The PIN you set in Amber is also independent from the PIN to unlock your device, allowing for separation of access. ## Can My Grandma Use It? Score: **4.0** / 5 At the end of the day, Amber is a tool for those who have some concept of the importance of protecting their private key by not pasting it into every Nostr client that comes along. This concept in itself is not terribly approachable to an average person. They are used to just plugging their password into every service they use, and even worse, they usually have the ***same password*** for everything so they can more readily remember it. The idea that they should never enter their "Nostr password" into any Nostr application would never occur to them unless someone first explained how cryptography works related to public/private key pairs. That said, I think there can be some improvements made to how users are introduced to these concepts, and that a signer application like Amber might be ideal for the job. Considering Amber as a new user's first touchpoint with Nostr, I think it holds up well, but could be somewhat streamlined. Upon opening the app, the user is prompted to either use their existing private key or "Create a new Nostr account." This is straightforward enough. "Account" is not a technically correct term with Nostr, but it is a term that new users would be familiar with and understand the basic concept.  The next screen announces that the account is ready, and presents the user with their public key, explaining that it is "a sort of username" that will allow others to find them on Nostr. While it is good to explain this to the user, it is unnecessary information at this point. This screen also prompts the user to set a nickname and set a password to encrypt their private key. Since the backup options also allow the user to set this password, I think this step could be pushed to a later time. This screen would better serve the new user if it simply prompted them to set a nickname and short bio that could be saved to a few default relays.  Of course, Amber is currently prompting for a password to be set up-front because the next screen requires the new user to download a "backup kit" in order to continue. While I do believe it is a good idea to encourage the creation of a backup, it is not crucial to do so immediately upon creation of a new npub that has nothing at stake if the private key is lost. This is something the UI could remind the user to do at a later time, reducing the friction of profile creation, and expediting getting them into the action.  Outside of these minor onboarding friction points, I think Amber does a great job of explaining to the user the purpose of each of its features, all within the app and without any need to reference external documentation. As long as the user understands the basic concept that their private key is being stored by Amber in order to sign requests from other Nostr apps, so they don't have to be given the private key, Amber is very good about explaining the rest without getting too far into the technical weeds. The most glaring usability issue with Amber is that it isn't available in the Play Store. Average users expect to be able to find applications they can trust in their mobile device's default app store. There is a valid argument to be made that they are incorrect in this assumption, but that doesn't change the fact that this is the assumption most people make. They believe that applications in the Play Store are "safe" and that anything they can't install through the Play Store is suspect. The prompts that the Android operating system requires the user to approve when installing "unknown apps" certainly doesn't help with this impression. Now, I absolutely ***love*** the Zapstore from nostr:npub1wf4pufsucer5va8g9p0rj5dnhvfeh6d8w0g6eayaep5dhps6rsgs43dgh9, but it doesn't do much to alleviate this issue. Users will still need to be convinced that it is safe to install the Zapstore from the GitHub repo, and then install Amber from there. Furthermore, this adds yet another step to the onboarding process. Instead of: - Install Amber - Set up your keys - Install the client you want to use - Log in with Amber The process becomes: - Go to the Zapstore GitHub and download the latest version from the releases page. - Install the APK you downloaded, allowing any prompt to install unknown apps. - Open Zapstore and install Amber, allowing any prompt to install unknown apps again. - Open Amber and set up your keys. - Install the client you want to use - Log in with Amber An application as important as Amber for protecting users' private keys should be as readily available to the new user as possible. New users are the ones most prone to making mistakes that could compromise their private keys. Amber should be available to them in the Play Store. ## How do UI Look? Score: **4.5** / 5 Amber's UI can be described as clean but utilitarian. But then, Amber is a tool, so this is somewhat expected. It is not an app you will be spending a lot of time in, so the UI just needs to be serviceable. I would say it accomplishes this and then some. UI elements are generally easy to understand what they do, and page headings fill in the gaps where that is not the case.  I am not the biggest fan of the color-scheme, particularly in light-mode, but it is not bad in dark-mode at all, and Amber follows whatever theme you have set for your device in that respect. Additionally, the color choice does make sense given the application's name.  It must also be taken into consideration that Amber is almost entirely the product of a single developer's work. He has done a great job producing an app that is not only useful, but pleasant to interact with. The same cannot be said for most utility apps I have previously used, with interfaces that clearly made good design the lowest priority. While Amber's UI may not be the most beautiful Nostr app I have seen, design was clearly not an afterthought, either, and it is appreciated. ## Relay Management Score: **4.9** / 5 Even though Amber is not a Nostr client, where users can browse notes from their favorite npubs, it still relies heavily on relays for some of its features. Primarily, it uses relays for communicating with other Nostr apps for remote signing requests. However, it also uses relays to fetch profile data, so that each private key you add to Amber will automatically load your chosen username and profile picture. In the relay settings, users can choose which relays are being used to fetch profile data, and which relays will be used by default when creating new remote signing connection strings.  The user can also see which relays are currently connected to Amber and even look at the information that has been passed back and forth on each of those active relays. This information about actively connected relays is not only available within the application, but also in the notification that Amber has to keep in your device's notification tray in order to continue to operate in the background while you are using other apps.  Optionality is the name of the game when it comes to how Amber handles relay selection. The user can just stick with the default signing relay, use their own relay as the default, or even use a different relay for each Nostr application that they connect to for remote signing. Amber gives the user an incredible amount of flexibility in this regard. In addition to all of this, because not all relays accept the event types needed for remote signing, when you add a relay address to Amber, it automatically tests that relay to see if it will work. This alone can be a massive time saver, so users aren't trying to use relays that don't support remote signing and wondering why they can't log into noStrudel with the connection string they got from Amber.  The only way I could see relay management being improved would be some means of giving the user relay recommendations, in case they want to use a relay other than relay.nsec.app, but they aren't sure which other relays will accept remote signing events. That said, most users who want to use a different relay for signing remote events will likely be using their own, in which case recommendations aren't needed. ## Current Users' Questions The AskNostr hashtag can be a good indication of the pain points that other users are currently having with any Nostr application. Here are some of the most common questions submitted about Amber in the last two months. nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzpv30auvvha0wkhteg500n3xd528063l6099zh37sgj2uevdm5mslqythwumn8ghj7ct49eex2mrp09skymr99ehhyee0qyt8wumn8ghj7ct4w35zumn0wd68yvfwvdhk6tcpz9mhxue69uhnzdps9enrw73wd9hj7qpqjx685wn6j3se7w6380ktwvrpydedpu06jd0cwfjawkgnzmahvs2s7t0585 This is a good example of Amber working correctly, but the app the user is trying to log into not working. In my experience with #Olas in particular, it sometimes allows remote signer login, and sometimes doesn't. Amber will receive the signing request and I will approve it, but Olas remains on the login screen. If Amber is receiving the signing requests, and you are approving them, the fault is likely with the application you are trying to log into. That's it. That's all the repeated questions I could find. Oh, there were a few one-off questions where relay.nsec.app wouldn't connect, or where the user's out-of-date web browser was the issue. Outside of that, though, there were no common questions about ***how*** to use Amber, and that is a testament to Amber's ease of use all on its own. ## Wrap Up If you are on Android and you are not already using Amber to protect your nsec, please do yourself a favor and get it installed. It's not at all complicated to set up, and it will make trying out all the latest Nostr clients a safe and pleasant experience. If you are a client developer and you have not added support for NIP-55 or NIP-46, do your users the courtesy of respecting the sanctity of their private keys. Even developers who have no intention of compromising their users' keys can inadvertently do so. Make that eventuality impossible by adding support for NIP-55 and NIP-46 signing. Finally, I apologize for the extended time it took me to get this review finished. The time I have available is scarce, Nostr is distracting, and nostr:npub1w4uswmv6lu9yel005l3qgheysmr7tk9uvwluddznju3nuxalevvs2d0jr5 kept improving Amber even as I was putting it through its paces over the last two months. Keep shipping, my friend! You have made one of the most useful tools we have seen for Nostr to date! Now... What should I review next?

@ d830ee7b:4e61cd62

ในชีวิตประจำวัน เรามักวัดมูลค่าของสิ่งต่างๆ ด้วยหน่วยเงินที่เราคุ้นเคย เช่น บาทหรือดอลลาร์ เราดีใจเมื่อการลงทุนของเรา **“เพิ่มขึ้น”** ในหน่วยเงินเหล่านั้น ..แต่น้อยคนนักจะหยุดคิดว่าไม้บรรทัดที่เราใช้วัดมูลค่านั้นมีความมั่นคงเพียงใด หากไม้บรรทัดเองหดสั้นลงเรื่อยๆ สิ่งของที่เราวัดอาจดูเหมือนยาวขึ้นทั้งที่ความจริงไม่ได้เปลี่ยนไปเลย แนวคิดนี้สะท้อนถึงการวัดมูลค่าทางเศรษฐกิจในหน่วยเงินที่เปลี่ยนแปลงตลอดเวลา และนำเราไปสู่หลักการเรื่อง **"ค่าเสียโอกาส" (opportunity cost)** ในการลงทุน เมื่อเราเลือกถือสินทรัพย์ชนิดหนึ่ง เรากำลังสละโอกาสที่จะได้ผลตอบแทนจากอีกชนิดหนึ่งเสมอ การทำความเข้าใจว่าอะไรเป็นตัววัดมาตรฐานของเราและค่าเสียโอกาสที่ตามมา จึงเป็นจุดเริ่มต้นในการสำรวจมุมมองใหม่ของการประเมินความมั่งคั่ง ในบริบทนี้.. **บิตคอยน์** (Bitcoin) ได้ถูกเสนอขึ้นมาเป็น **“มาตรฐาน”** ใหม่ในการวัดมูลค่ว เสมือนกับที่ทองคำเคยเป็นมาตรฐานการเงินของโลกในอดีต หนังสือ **The Bitcoin Standard** ของ Saifedean Ammous ชวนเราคิดว่า Bitcoin อาจกลายเป็นเหมือน **“มาตรฐานทองคำ”** ยุคดิจิทัล ที่มารองรับระบบการเงินสากลในอนาคต เหตุผลสำคัญที่ Bitcoin ถูกมองว่าเป็นเงินตราที่มีความแข็งแกร่ง (sound money) คือคุณสมบัติที่หาได้ยากในเงินสกุลปัจจุบัน มันมีปริมาณจำกัดตายตัว 21 ล้านหน่วย ไม่มีธนาคารกลางใดสามารถพิมพ์เพิ่มได้ตามใจชอบ ต่างจากเงินเฟียต (Fiat money) อย่างดอลลาร์ ที่จำนวนเพิ่มขึ้นตลอดเวลาจากนโยบายรัฐ ผลคือ Bitcoin มีความทนทานต่อภาวะค่าเงินเสื่อมค่าจากเงินเฟ้อ และสามารถรักษามูลค่าได้ในระยะยาวดุจทองคำในอดีต หลายคนจึงยกให้มันเป็น **“Sound Money”** หรือเงินที่มั่นคง เชื่อถือได้ในด้านมูลค่าเมื่อเวลาผ่านไป แนวคิดนี้เองเปิดประตูไปสู่การใช้ Bitcoin เป็นหน่วยวัดเปรียบเทียบมูลค่าสินทรัพย์อื่นๆ เพื่อมองภาพเศรษฐกิจในมุมใหม่ - - - ลองจินตนาการกราฟหนึ่งที่นำดัชนีหุ้นชั้นนำอย่าง S&P 500 มาเปรียบเทียบในหน่วย Bitcoin แทนที่จะเป็นดอลลาร์ กราฟนี้จะแสดงให้เราเห็นภาพที่ต่างออกไปอย่างมากจากกราฟปกติที่คุ้นเคย https://nostr.download/e344db050a8f6b023b2a9c7883560ad8a7be3fc4154d3908cbae3471b970272a.webp หากย้อนไปช่วงปี 2011 หุ้น S&P 500 อยู่ที่ราว 1,300 จุด ขณะที่บิตคอยน์มีราคายังไม่ถึง 1 ดอลลาร์ นั่นหมายความว่าดัชนี S&P 500 ในเวลานั้นมีมูลค่าประมาณ 1,300 BTC แต่เมื่อเวลาผ่านไป Bitcoin มีราคาสูงขึ้นมหาศาล ในปี 2021–2022 Bitcoin (เคยพุ่งขึ้นไปแตะหลักหลายหมื่นดอลลาร์ต่อ 1 BTC) ทำให้มูลค่าของ S&P 500 เมื่อวัดในหน่วย BTC กลับกลายเป็นเพียงเศษเสี้ยวของที่เคยเป็น สมมติ S&P 500 ล่าสุดอยู่แถว 4,000 จุด และราคา BTC อยู่หลักแสนดอลลาร์ ดัชนี S&P 500 ทั้งดัชนีอาจมีค่าไม่ถึง 0.05 BTC ด้วยซ้ำ ผลลัพธ์ที่สะท้อนออกมาบนกราฟคือเส้นค่าของ S&P 500 (เมื่อวัดด้วย BTC) ที่มีแนวโน้มลดลงเรื่อยๆ ตลอดทศวรรษที่ผ่านมา แปลความได้ว่า.. บิตคอยน์มีมูลค่าเพิ่มขึ้นเมื่อเทียบกับสินทรัพย์การเงินดั้งเดิมอย่างหุ้น ถึงขั้นที่... **การถือ Bitcoin ไว้ให้ผลตอบแทนดีกว่าการลงทุนในดัชนีหุ้นใหญ่เสียอีกในช่วงเวลาที่ผ่านมา** แม้จะฟังดูเหลือเชื่อ แต่นี่คือภาพที่ข้อมูลได้บอกเรา.. ในมุมมองของมาตรฐาน Bitcoin ตลาดหุ้นสหรัฐฯ ที่ว่าทำผลตอบแทนโดดเด่น ยังดูซีดเซียวลงในทันที ข้อมูลในช่วงสิบปีให้หลังตอกย้ำภาพนี้อย่างชัดเจน ผลตอบแทนของ Bitcoin เหนือกว่าสินทรัพย์แทบทุกชนิดที่เรารู้จักในยุคปัจจุบัน ในเชิงตัวเลข Bitcoin ให้ผลตอบแทนเฉลี่ยต่อปีราว 230% ตลอดทศวรรษ 2011–2021 ขณะที่ดัชนี S&P 500 ซึ่งขึ้นชื่อว่าให้ผลตอบแทนดีสม่ำเสมอ ยังมีค่าเฉลี่ยผลตอบแทนต่อปีประมาณ 10% กว่าๆ เท่านั้นเอง เมื่อนำมาคำนวณทบต้น นั่นหมายความว่า.. ในช่วงเวลาประมาณ 10 ปีที่ผ่านมา มูลค่าของ Bitcoin เพิ่มขึ้นหลักหลายหมื่นเปอร์เซ็นต์ ในขณะที่ S&P 500 เพิ่มขึ้นเพียงไม่กี่ร้อยเปอร์เซ็นต์ **ผลต่างระดับนี้ใหญ่พอที่จะเปลี่ยนวิธีที่เรามองความสำเร็จในการลงทุนไปเลยทีเดียว** มีการสังเกตด้วยว่าเพียงช่วงห้าปีหลังสุด ดัชนี S&P 500 สูญเสียมูลค่าประมาณเกือบ 90% หากวัดในหน่วยของบิตคอยน์ พูดอีกอย่างคือ.. ในสายตาของคนที่ถือ Bitcoin ไว้เป็นเกณฑ์ *"เงิน 100 บาทที่ลงทุนในหุ้นเมื่อต้นช่วงเวลาดังกล่าว จะเหลือมูลค่าเพียงประมาณ 10 บาทเท่านั้นในปัจจุบัน** (เพราะ 90 บาทที่เหลือคือค่าเสียโอกาสที่หายไปเมื่อเทียบกับการถือ Bitcoin) มุมมองแบบนี้ชวนให้เราตั้งคำถามว่า ที่ผ่านมาสินทรัพย์ที่ดูเหมือนมั่นคงปลอดภัย อาจไม่ปลอดภัยอย่างที่คิดเมื่อประเมินด้วยบรรทัดฐานใหม่ การเปรียบเทียบข้างต้นยังสะท้อนถึง ปัญหาการเสื่อมค่าของเงินเฟียต ซึ่งเราคุ้นเคยแต่บางครั้งมองข้ามความร้ายกาจของมัน เงินดอลลาร์สหรัฐซึ่งเป็นสกุลเงินหลักของโลก สูญเสียอำนาจซื้อไปแล้วกว่า 96% ตั้งแต่ปี 1913 จนถึงปัจจุบัน (กล่าวคือ เงิน 1 ดอลลาร์ในสมัยนั้นมีค่าพอๆ กับเงินเกือบ 30 ดอลลาร์ในปัจจุบัน) การที่ค่าเงินด้อยค่าลงเรื่อยๆ แบบนี้หมายความว่า **ตัวเลขราคาในหน่วยเงินเฟียตอาจเพิ่มขึ้นทั้งที่มูลค่าที่แท้จริงไม่เพิ่ม** ยกตัวอย่างเช่น ดัชนี S&P 500 ทำจุดสูงสุดใหม่เป็นประวัติการณ์ในหน่วยดอลลาร์สหรัฐอยู่บ่อยครั้ง แต่หากปรับค่าด้วยปัจจัยเงินเฟ้อหรือปริมาณเงินที่พิมพ์เพิ่มเข้าไป เราจะพบว่ามูลค่าที่แท้จริงของดัชนีนี้ไม่ได้เพิ่มขึ้นมากอย่างที่เห็น บางการวิเคราะห์ชี้ว่าหลังวิกฤตการเงินปี 2008 เป็นต้นมา แม้ดัชนี S&P 500 ในตัวเลขจะพุ่งขึ้นไม่หยุด แต่เมื่อหารด้วยปริมาณเงินที่เพิ่มขึ้น (เช่น M3) เส้นกราฟที่ได้กลับแทบไม่สูงไปกว่าจุดก่อนวิกฤตเลยด้วยซ้ำ หมายความว่า.. ที่ราคาหุ้นสูงขึ้น ส่วนใหญ่ก็เพื่อไล่ตามสภาพคล่องเงินที่ไหลเข้าระบบเท่านั้น ไม่ได้สะท้อนการเติบโตแท้จริงของเศรษฐกิจมากนัก เงินเฟ้อและการขยายตัวของปริมาณเงินจึงเปรียบเสมือน **“หมอก”** ที่บังตา ทำให้เรามองไม่ชัดว่าสิ่งใดเพิ่มมูลค่าแท้จริง สิ่งใดแค่ตัวเลขฟูขึ้นตามสกุลเงินที่ด้อยค่าลง เมื่อ Bitcoin ถูกใช้เป็นหน่วยวัดเปรียบเทียบ มันทำหน้าที่เสมือนกระจกใสที่กวาดเอาหมอกเงินเฟ้อนั้นออกไป เราจึงเห็นภาพที่ต่างไปโดยสิ้นเชิง เช่นเดียวกับกรณีที่เราเปรียบเทียบราคาสินค้าโภคภัณฑ์บางอย่างในหน่วย BTC ผลลัพธ์ก็อาจกลับทิศ การทดลองหนึ่งของธนาคารเฟด สาขาเซนต์หลุยส์ เคยเล่นเปรียบเทียบราคา **“ไข่ไก่หนึ่งโหล”** ในหน่วยดอลลาร์กับในหน่วยบิตคอยน์ ปรากฏว่า... แม้ต้องการจะชี้ให้เห็นความผันผวนของ Bitcoin แต่ดันกลับตอกย้ำความจริงที่ว่า ในช่วงเงินเฟ้อสูง ราคาฟองไข่ที่ดูเพิ่มขึ้นเรื่อยๆ ในหน่วยดอลลาร์ จริงๆ แล้วทรงตัวหรือลดลงด้วยซ้ำเมื่อคิดเป็น BTC นี่เป็นตัวอย่างสนุกๆ ที่บอกเราว่า กรอบอ้างอิง (frame of reference) ในการวัดมูลค่านั้นสำคัญเพียงใด แน่นอนว่า Bitcoin เองก็มีความผันผวนสูงและยังอยู่ในช่วงเริ่มต้นเมื่อเทียบกับสินทรัพย์ดั้งเดิม การที่มันพุ่งทะยานหลายหมื่นเปอร์เซ็นต์ที่ผ่านมาไม่ได้รับประกันว่ากราฟในหน่วย BTC ของสินทรัพย์ต่างๆ จะดิ่งลงอย่างนี้ไปตลอด แต่สิ่งที่เกิดขึ้นแล้วได้ให้แง่คิดทางปรัชญาการเงินที่ลึกซึ้งกับเรา อย่างแรกคือเรื่อง **ค่าเสียโอกาส** ที่กล่าวถึงตอนต้น ทุกการตัดสินใจทางการเงินมีต้นทุนค่าเสียโอกาสแฝงอยู่เสมอ เพียงแต่เมื่อก่อนเราอาจไม่เห็นมันชัดเจน การเก็บออมเงินสดไว้เฉยๆ ในธนาคารมีต้นทุนคือผลตอบแทนที่สูญไปหากเราเลือกลงทุนอย่างอื่น การลงทุนในสินทรัพย์ A ก็ย่อมหมายถึงการไม่ได้ลงทุนในสินทรัพย์ B หาก B นั้นให้ผลตอบแทนสูงกว่า เราก็สูญเสียส่วนต่างนั้นไป สิบกว่าปีที่ผ่านมา Bitcoin ทำผลงานได้เหนือชั้นกว่าสินทรัพย์อื่นๆ มาก ค่าเสียโอกาสของการไม่ถือ Bitcoin จึงสูงลิ่วในช่วงนี้ สำหรับนักลงทุนที่มองย้อนกลับไป นี่คือบทเรียนราคาแพง บางคนอาจนึกเสียดายว่า **“รู้งี้ซื้อบิตคอยน์ไว้ตั้งแต่แรกซะก็ดี”** แต่ประเด็นไม่ได้อยู่ที่การเสียดายอดีต แต่อยู่ที่ **การตระหนักรู้ถึงค่าเสียโอกาสและผลกระทบของมันที่มีต่อความมั่งคั่งของเราในระยะยาว** ต่างหาก อีกแง่หนึ่งที่ลึกกว่านั้นคือเรื่อง **กรอบในการวัดมูลค่า** ของเราทุกวันนี้ว่าเหมาะสมแล้วหรือไม่ หากการที่เราใช้เงินเฟียตที่เสื่อมค่าเป็นตัววัด ทำให้เราประเมินค่าของสิ่งต่างๆ ผิดเพี้ยนไป การตัดสินใจทางเศรษฐกิจของเราก็อาจผิดทิศทางในระยะยาวได้ ลองนึกภาพว่า.. ถ้าเงินที่เราใช้อยู่มีมูลค่าเสถียรหรือเพิ่มขึ้นตามประสิทธิภาพการผลิตจริงๆ ของเศรษฐกิจ (เหมือนที่เงิน Bitcoin ถูกออกแบบมาให้ไม่เสื่อมค่าไปตามกาลเวลา) เราอาจไม่จำเป็นต้องวิ่งไล่หาผลตอบแทนสูงๆ เพียงเพื่อรักษามูลค่าเงินออมของตัวเองให้ทันเงินเฟ้อ ผู้คนอาจวางแผนการเงินระยะยาวขึ้น แนวคิดเรื่อง **“เวลาที่ต้องใช้”** กับ **“อัตราส่วนลดของอนาคต”** (time preference) ก็จะเปลี่ยนไป ดังที่ Ammous กล่าวไว้ใน The Bitcoin Standard ว่าเงินที่มีเสถียรภาพจะส่งเสริมให้คนออมและลงทุนในโครงการระยะยาวมากขึ้น ผิดกับระบบเงินเฟ้อที่ชักจูงให้ผู้คนรีบใช้จ่ายหรือเข้าร่วมเก็งกำไรระยะสั้นเพราะกลัวว่าเงินจะด้อยค่าไป นี่ไม่ใช่แค่เรื่องการเงินส่วนบุคคล แต่สะท้อนถึงคุณภาพของการเติบโตทางเศรษฐกิจและนวัตกรรมในสังคมโดยรวมด้วย หากเรามีหน่วยวัดมูลค่าที่เที่ยงตรง ไม่บิดเบือนไปตามนโยบายการเงินรายวัน เราก็อาจประเมินโครงการต่างๆ ได้ตามศักยภาพที่แท้จริงมากขึ้น เงินเฟ้อและการพิมพ์เงินจำนวนมากมักทำให้เกิดการลงทุนผิดที่ผิดทาง (malinvestment) เพราะสัญญาณราคาถูกบิดเบือน เช่น ดอกเบี้ยที่ต่ำผิดปกติอาจทำให้เกิดหนี้ล้นเกินหรือลงทุนในโครงการที่ไม่ยั่งยืน ในขณะที่มาตรฐานเงินที่เข้มงวดอย่าง Bitcoin อาจบังคับให้ทุกการลงทุนต้องมีเหตุผลรองรับที่แข็งแรงขึ้น เนื่องจากไม่สามารถอาศัยการอัดฉีดสภาพคล่องมาช่วยพยุงได้ง่ายๆ เมื่อมาถึงตรงนี้.. เราอาจไม่ได้ข้อสรุปทันทีว่า **“ต่อไปนี้ฉันควรถือ Bitcoin แทนที่จะลงทุนอย่างอื่น”** และบทความนี้ก็ไม่ได้มีเจตนาจะชี้นำการลงทุนเช่นนั้น เป้าหมายแท้จริงคือการเปิดมุมมองใหม่ว่า เราประเมินคุณค่าของสิ่งต่างๆ อย่างไร ลองตั้งคำถามกับตัวเองว่า.. ทุกวันนี้เราวัดความร่ำรวยหรือความก้าวหน้าทางเศรษฐกิจด้วยหน่วยอะไร หน่วยนั้นวัดได้เที่ยงตรงหรือเปล่า? หากเงินที่เราใช้วัดเองลดค่าลงทุกปีๆ เราจะมั่นใจได้อย่างไรว่าตัวเลขที่เพิ่มขึ้นบนกระดาษคือความมั่งคั่งที่เพิ่มขึ้นจริง? การใช้ Bitcoin เป็นมาตรฐานเทียบเคียง เป็นเสมือนการลองวัดด้วยไม้บรรทัดอีกอันที่อาจตรงกว่าเดิม ในหลายกรณีมันเผยให้เห็นภาพที่เราคาดไม่ถึงและท้าทายความเชื่อเดิมๆ ของเรา บทเรียนที่ได้รับไม่ใช่ให้เราทุกคนเปลี่ยนไปคิดเป็น BTC ในชีวิตประจำวันทันที แต่คือการตระหนักว่า **หน่วยวัดมีความหมาย** และการมองโลกการเงินด้วยหน่วยวัดที่ต่างออกไปสามารถให้ข้อคิดที่ลึกซึ้งได้อย่างไร ท้ายที่สุด ไม่ว่าจะเชื่อใน **“มาตรฐานบิตคอยน์”** หรือไม่นั้น ไม่สำคัญเท่ากับการที่เราได้ฉุกคิดและตั้งคำถามกับระบบที่เราใช้อยู่ทุกเมื่อเชื่อวัน บางทีสิ่งที่ Bitcoin และปรัชญาการเงินแบบใหม่ๆ นำมาให้เรา อาจไม่ใช่คำตอบสำเร็จรูป แต่คือแรงกระตุ้นให้เราเปิดใจมองภาพใหญ่ของเศรษฐกิจในมุมที่กว้างขึ้น ลองพิจารณาปัจจัยพื้นฐานอย่างค่าเงิน เวลา และโอกาสที่สูญเสียไปกับการตัดสินใจต่างๆ อย่างรอบด้านขึ้น เมื่อเราเริ่มมองเห็นว่าการวัดมูลค่าของสิ่งต่างๆ ด้วย **ไม้บรรทัดที่ต่างออกไป** ให้อะไรเราได้บ้าง เราก็จะพร้อมที่จะปรับมุมมองและกลยุทธ์การเงินของตนเองให้เท่าทันโลกที่เปลี่ยนแปลงเสมอ ไม่แน่ว่าในอนาคต เราอาจได้เห็นผู้คนพูดถึงราคาบ้านหรือดัชนีหุ้นในหน่วยบิตคอยน์อย่างเป็นเรื่องปกติ และการคิดเช่นนั้นอาจไม่ใช่เรื่องแปลกใหม่อีกต่อไป เพราะเราได้เรียนรู้ที่จะมองผ่านเปลือกของหน่วยเงิน ไปสู่แก่นแท้ของมูลค่าจริงๆ ที่อยู่เบื้องหลังนั่นเอง ขอบคุณ Thai Ratel สำหรับความกระจ่างในการวัดมูลค่าสินทรัพย์ต่าง ๆ ด้วยบิตคอยน์

@ d830ee7b:4e61cd62

In our daily lives, we often measure the value of things using familiar monetary units such as baht or dollars. We feel delighted when our investments **"increase"** in these units. However, few people stop to consider how stable the measuring stick itself is. If the ruler we use to measure value keeps shrinking, the objects we measure may appear longer, even though their actual size remains unchanged. This concept reflects the way we assess economic value in constantly changing monetary units, leading us to the principle of opportunity cost in investment: when we choose to hold one type of asset, we are always giving up the opportunity to earn returns from another. Understanding what serves as our standard measure and the opportunity costs that come with it is the first step toward exploring a new perspective on wealth assessment. In this context, Bitcoin has been proposed as a new **"standard"** for measuring value, much like gold once served as the global financial standard in the past. Some view Bitcoin as the "digital gold standard" that could support the international financial system in the future. A key reason Bitcoin is considered **"sound money"** is its rarity—something modern currencies lack. Its supply is permanently capped at 21 million units, meaning no central bank can print more at will. This contrasts with fiat money, such as the dollar or baht, which constantly increases in supply due to government policies. As a result, Bitcoin is resistant to inflation-induced depreciation and can retain its value over the long term, much like gold in the past. Many therefore consider it **"sound money"**—a form of currency that is stable and reliable in preserving value over time. This idea opens the door to using Bitcoin as a benchmark for comparing the value of other assets, offering a fresh perspective on the economy. Imagine a graph that compares the leading stock index, **the S&P 500, in Bitcoin terms instead of dollars.**  This graph would reveal a drastically different picture from the conventional charts we are familiar with. Looking back to 2011, the S&P 500 was around 1,300 points, while Bitcoin was priced at less than $1. This means the S&P 500 index was valued at approximately 1,300 BTC at the time. However, as Bitcoin's price surged over the years—reaching tens of thousands of dollars per BTC in 2021–2022—the value of the S&P 500, when measured in BTC, shrank dramatically. Suppose the S&P 500 currently stands at around 4,000 points, while Bitcoin is priced at six figures in dollars. The entire S&P 500 index might be worth less than 0.05 BTC. The resulting graph would show a consistent downward trend in the S&P 500's value **(when measured in BTC)** over the past decade. This means Bitcoin has appreciated relative to traditional financial assets like stocks—to the extent that simply holding Bitcoin has outperformed investing in major stock indices. As surprising as this may seem, the data tells this story: from the perspective of a Bitcoin standard, even the high-performing U.S. stock market appears lackluster. Data from the past decade reinforces this view. Bitcoin has outperformed nearly every asset class known today. In numerical terms, Bitcoin delivered an average annual return of **approximately 230% from 2011 to 2021**, whereas the S&P 500, which is renowned for its consistent performance, achieved an average annual return of just over 10%. When compounded over time, this means Bitcoin's value increased by tens of thousands of percent over the past decade, while the S&P 500's value rose by only a few hundred percent. The magnitude of this difference is significant enough to reshape how we perceive investment success. Observations also indicate that in just **the past five years, the S&P 500 has lost nearly 90% of its value when measured in Bitcoin.** In other words, for someone using Bitcoin as their benchmark, a 100-baht investment in stocks at the beginning of this period would be worth only about 10 baht today—the remaining 90 baht representing the opportunity cost of not holding Bitcoin. This perspective challenges our assumptions about the stability of supposedly safe assets when evaluated under a new standard. This comparison also highlights the issue of fiat currency depreciation—something we are familiar with but often underestimate. The U.S. dollar, the world's primary reserve currency, has **lost over 96% of its purchasing power since 1913**. This means that what $1 could buy back then now requires nearly $30. This ongoing depreciation implies that prices in fiat terms may rise even when real value does not. For example, the S&P 500 frequently reaches all-time highs in U.S. dollar terms. However, when adjusted for inflation or money supply expansion, its real value has not increased as much as it seems. Some analyses suggest that since the 2008 financial crisis, although the S&P 500's nominal value has surged, when divided by the expanding money supply (such as M3), its graph remains largely unchanged from pre-crisis levels. This suggests that stock prices have risen primarily in response to liquidity injections rather than genuine economic growth. Inflation and monetary expansion act like a **"fog,"** obscuring our ability to discern real value from mere numerical increases. When Bitcoin is used as a comparative unit, it acts as a clear lens that removes this inflationary fog, revealing a completely different picture. The same applies when comparing commodity prices in BTC. A notable experiment by the St. Louis Federal Reserve once examined the price of **"a dozen eggs"** in both dollars and Bitcoin. While the study aimed to highlight Bitcoin’s volatility, it inadvertently reinforced the point that during periods of high inflation, the price of eggs, which seemed to rise continuously in dollars, actually remained stable or even declined in BTC terms. This amusing example illustrates the profound impact of measurement standards. Of course, Bitcoin itself is highly volatile and still in its early stages compared to traditional assets. Its meteoric rise over the past decade does not guarantee that all asset graphs in BTC terms will continue declining indefinitely. However, what has already transpired provides deep financial insights. **The first takeaway** is the concept of opportunity cost mentioned earlier—every financial decision has an inherent cost, even if we do not always recognize it. Holding cash in a bank carries the opportunity cost of the returns one could earn by investing elsewhere. Investing in asset A means missing out on asset B, and if B delivers higher returns, we incur that loss. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has outperformed all other assets by a wide margin, making the opportunity cost of not holding Bitcoin extremely high. Investors looking back on this period might regret not having bought Bitcoin earlier, but the key lesson is not about dwelling on past decisions—it is about becoming aware of **opportunity costs** and their long-term impact on wealth. On a deeper level, this discussion raises questions about whether our current valuation framework is truly appropriate. If using a depreciating fiat currency as a benchmark distorts our perception of value, our economic decisions may be misaligned in the long run. Imagine a scenario where money retains or even appreciates in value in line with real economic productivity (as Bitcoin was designed to do). In such a system, people would not need to chase high returns merely to preserve their savings from inflation. They could plan finances with a longer-term perspective. Concepts like **"time preference"** and **"discounting the future"** would shift. It is often argued that sound money encourages saving and long-term investment, whereas inflationary systems push people toward short-term spending or speculation out of fear that their money will lose value. This is not just a matter of personal finance but a fundamental influence on the quality of economic growth and innovation. **A sound money standard** like **Bitcoin** might enforce stricter investment discipline, as liquidity injections could no longer be used as a safety net for unsustainable projects. At this point, readers may not conclude that they should immediately hold Bitcoin instead of investing in other assets—and this article is not intended as investment advice. Its real purpose is to provoke thought about how we measure value. **Ask yourself:** What unit do we use to gauge wealth and economic progress? Is that unit reliable? If the money we use for measurement loses value every year, how can we be sure that increasing numbers on paper reflect true wealth growth? Using Bitcoin as a reference standard is like measuring with a new ruler—one that may be more accurate. In many cases, it reveals unexpected insights and challenges long-held beliefs. Ultimately, whether or not one believes in the **"Bitcoin standard"** is less important than the ability to critically examine the system we rely on daily. Perhaps the greatest value Bitcoin and new financial philosophies offer is not a definitive answer but the impetus to look at the bigger economic picture with fresh eyes. Thank you, Thai Ratel, for enlightening me on this topic! Jakk Goodday.

@ 3eba5ef4:751f23ae

### Standardizing Bitcoin Layer 2 Withdrawals: Output Script Descriptor (BOSD) Jose Storopoli and Trey Del Bonis from Alpen Labs introduced [Output Script Descriptor (BOSD)](https://bitcoinops.org/en/topics/output-script-descriptors/), a standardized withdrawal output format aimed at improving the on-chain withdrawal process for Bitcoin Layer 2s while eliminating reliance on ad-hoc rules. One key issue BOSD addresses is the risk L2 operators face when users request non-standard transactions, such as those with oversized OP\_RETURN outputs. By abstracting complex validation logic into a more manageable format, BOSD helps mitigate these risks and serves as a crucial tool for maintaining the integrity and reliability of Bitcoin’s Layer 2 infrastructure. * [Rust implementation of BOSD](https://crates.io/crates/bitcoin-bosd) * [Specification](https://github.com/alpenlabs/bitcoin-bosd/blob/main/SPECIFICATION.md) ### Allowing Mobile Wallets to Settle Lightning Channels Without Extra UTXOs Bastien Teinturier [introduced](https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/zero-fee-commitments-for-mobile-wallets/1453) an opt-in variant of Lightning Network’s [V3 commitments](https://bitcoinops.org/en/topics/v3-commitments/), enabling mobile wallets to settle channels using funds within the channel even in cases of theft attempts. This removes the need for users to maintain an on-chain UTXO to cover closing fees. ### Custodial Solutions Are Not Solutions Matt Corallo, one of Bitcoin’s most prolific developers, has been vocal about the challenges of non-custodial Bitcoin payment solutions, particularly in the Lightning Network. His article, [*Custodial Solutions Are Not Solutions*](https://spiralbtc.substack.com/p/custodial-solutions-are-not-solutions), critiques the Bitcoin community’s fixation on new custodial models. He argues that too many engineering resources have gone into custodial solutions like Blockstream’s Liquid (a multisig-controlled private blockchain), ecash (blind-signed custodial systems), Spark (Lightspark’s Statechains extension requiring near-total operator trust), and modern Ark variants (which rely heavily on trusted Statechain operators for scalability). While many of these systems offer excellent UX and privacy, they compromise Bitcoin’s core censorship resistance. For now, Corallo believes Lightning remains the only non-custodial solution capable of supporting most Bitcoin users. ### Three Approaches to Solo Mining There is significant debate over what qualifies as *solo mining*. Some define it as a miner earning block rewards alone, while others focus on miners generating their own block templates. To clarify this, the open-source mining advocacy group [256 Foundation](https://256foundation.org/) explored the topic in their recent report, [*Swim at Your Own Risk*](https://256foundation.org/newsletters/256Foundation-Newsletter-2502_v1.pdf), outlining three types of solo mining: * **Self-Hosted Solo Mining:** The miner runs their own Bitcoin node and Stratum server, generates block templates, broadcasts blocks, and keeps all rewards. This is the most "pure" form of solo mining. * **OCEAN Mining**: The miner runs their own Bitcoin node and DATUM gateway, generates block templates, but relies on a pool to broadcast blocks. Miners can choose whether to share rewards with others, and the pool charges a 1% fee. * **Joining a Solo Mining Pool** * The miner operates mining hardware, while the pool provides block templates and broadcasts blocks. Pools supporting this include CK Pool, Braiins Solo Pool (2% fee), and Public Pool (no fees). * While this method involves pools, individual miners still receive direct rewards, making it a hybrid form of solo mining. ### Lightning Network Growth Report Lightning Network service provider Voltage Cloud released a report titled *The Lightning Network: Expanding Bitcoin Use Cases*, highlighting key trends: * More businesses are integrating Lightning, a trend expected to continue through 2025. * Older, inefficient channels deployed between 2018 and 2020 are closing in favor of larger, more efficient ones. * The average total capacity of public Lightning channels is increasing, improving the success rate for larger payments. * If nodes are well-optimized, transaction fees can be near zero, with settlement times under half a second. * The Lightning Network is evolving toward fewer but better-connected nodes rather than many weakly connected ones. * Lightning is proving itself as one of the most efficient transaction methods in the digital asset ecosystem. * Lightning can be seen as a *yield-bearing network*, allowing users to earn without sacrificing Bitcoin custody. [Download](https://www.voltage.cloud/expanding-bitcoin-use-cases) the full report. ### Mempool Block Art Created Through Anomalous Transactions According to [256 Foundation’s monthly report](https://256foundation.org/newsletters/256Foundation-Newsletter-2502_v1.pdf), researcher *boerst* [discovered](https://x.com/boerst/status/1882390953496809484) anomalies involving empty block templates from mining pools like Binance, SECpool, Sigmapool, and EMCD. Earlier, SEC Pool mined [empty block 880496](https://mempool.space/block/00000000000000000000e3f7c2b91609da1394fd9a725fedb8123419188b34ec), which later returned to a normal transaction-included state. These anomalies were linked to SEC Pool engineers configuring block templates to create block art. As a result, [block 880512](https://mempool.space/block/00000000000000000001c3fbc76a7efe7a320a8236ea6250bc15e4f7a67e727d) was shaped into a Satoshi pattern. Additionally, some of the first transactions contained OP\_RETURN messages with the text: *Declaration of Genesis: Awakening on the Bitcoin Network. Bitcoin’s promise of freedom will become an untamperable habitat for AI.*  ### Podcast | SNI: Fractional Reserve Banking is Obsolete The latest episode of *The Reorg*, a podcast by the Satoshi Nakamoto Institute, discusses Pierre Rochard’s article *Fractional Reserve Banking is Obsolete*. The article argues that the fractional reserve banking system leads to capital misallocation and price distortions, inevitably causing economic crises. Bitcoin, on the other hand, provides a safer, more transparent, and more efficient way to store and transfer funds, rendering traditional banking obsolete. Moreover, the increasing adoption of Bitcoin serves as a validation of Austrian economic theory: a 100% reserve banking system can prevent financial crises and economic downturns. A healthy economy expands based on capital goods rather than monetary or credit inflation. [Listen here](https://nakamotoinstitute.org/podcasts/the-reorg/fractional-reserve-banking-is-obsolete/) ### Central Banks Postpone CBDC Plans A survey conducted by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) on 34 central banks, titled [*Why central banks should take the next step on CBDCs*](https://www.omfif.org/2025/02/why-central-banks-should-take-the-next-step-on-cbdcs/), reveals that 31% of central banks have delayed their retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) plans. The percentage of central banks inclined to issue a CBDC has dropped from 38% in 2022 to 18%. While this slowdown is a welcome shift, the survey [concludes](https://cointelegraph.com/news/central-banks-pushing-back-cbdc-plans-survey) that most central banks are still likely to issue a CBDC in the future. ### Governments Worldwide Seek to Break Encryption for Data Access Will Jager [reveals](https://www.therage.co/encryption-is-under-siege/) the global trend of governments attempting to bypass encryption protections to access private data. He highlights the growing risks associated with government access to encrypted data, citing examples such as the UK government’s [order to Apple](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20g288yldko) to create a backdoor for encrypted iCloud data, the EU’s [Chat Control proposal](https://www.techradar.com/computing/cyber-security/chat-control-all-you-need-to-know-about-the-eu-plan-to-scan-all-your-whatsapp-chats), and the U.S. [EARN IT Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/1207), which expands government surveillance over encrypted communications.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na [medium.com](https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/do-not-buy-bitcoin-75da73226530). ###### Autor: [Aleksandar Svetski](https://primal.net/svetski) / Prevod: [₿itcoin Serbia](https://x.com/BTCSRB) --- Nemojte kupovati Bitkoin! Ni danas, ni kasnije, nikada! Posvećeno skepticima, neznalicama, arogantnima i nezainteresovanima. ##### NE TREBA vam Bitkoin. ##### Molim vas. Nemojte ga kupovati. ##### Lično me ne zanima "masovna adopcija". ##### Draža mi je selektivna adopcija. ##### Svinja ne zaslužuje bisere. ##### Na vama je da platite cenu neznanja. ##### Kao i cenu glupavosti. ##### Kada dođe vreme, sa zadovoljstvom ću vam platiti hiljadu satošija mesečno za vaše vreme i smejati se usput.  #### Najbitnija odluka koju ćete ikada doneti NEMA važnije odluke za vašu finansijsku, ekonomsku i suverenu budućnost koju danas možete doneti nego da kupite Bitkoin. A ako ne želite da izdvojite malo vremena da ga dalje proučite, JEDINA osoba koju treba da krivite kasnije ste vi sami. Danas, Bitkoin se nalazi u svojoj ranoj, početnoj fazi. O ovome možete više pročitati ovde (hvala [ObiWan Kenobit](https://obiwankenobit.medium.com/)): [Hiperbitkoinizacija: pobednik uzima sve](https://medium.com/coinmonks/hyperbitcoinization-winner-takes-all-69ab59f9695f) Ovo JE prilika ne samo vašeg života, već verovatno i najveći mogući transfer bogatstva u istoriji, a najluđa stvar je što će se najveći deo toga odigrati u narednih nekoliko decenija. Nalazimo se tek u prvih 12 godina ove promene, a već smo videlo kako je Bitkoin eksplodirao sa $0.008c (kada su za 10.000 BTC kupljene dve pice) na trenutnu cenu od oko $11.500. **Ovo je tek početak.** Tek 0.001% svetskog bogatstva je denominirano u Bitkoinu. Ako sada izdvojite samo trenutak da razumete novac, njegovu ulogu u društvu i kako će ekonomski darvinizam voditi ceo svet prema najrobusnijem, najčvršćem i najsigurnijem obliku očuvanja bogatstva, možete odlučiti da kupite neki deo pre nego što se ostatak sveta priključi. Čitajući ovo, vi ste poput drevnog pojedinca koji je pronašao zlato, dok svi ostali koriste školjke. Razlika je u tome što živite u digitalnom dobu tokom kojeg će se ovaj novac pojaviti i sazreti *za vreme vašeg života*. Taj drevni pojedinac bi bio u pravu ali mrtav zato što je zlatu bilo potrebno nekoliko hiljada godina da uradi ono za šta će Bitkoinu biti potrebne decenije. **Zamislite. Se. Nad. Tim.** I naučite dalje o nastanku Bitkoina ovde: [Zašto je Bitkoin važan](https://medium.com/hackernoon/why-bitcoin-matters-c8bf733b9fad) I za ime ljubavi prema sopstvenoj budućnosti, preuzmite ovu kratku elektronsku knjigu i jebeno se edukujte!! [Preuzmite "Investiranje u Bitkoin"](https://info.amber.app/investing-in-bitcoin) I eto, dajem vam izvore.. jbt.. Svejedno... Danas, imate izbor da kupite Bitkoin; najoskudniji novac u univerzumu, za siću!! Bukvalno možete kupiti hiljade satošija (najmanju jedinicu Bitkoina gde je 100.000.000 satošija = 1 BTC) za $1!!! Danas ne postoji veća prilika, kao što sutradan neće postojati veće žaljenje kada više ne budete imali "izbor" da ga kupite. Kada taj dan bude došao i kada budete to *morali* da prihvatite, setićete se ovih reči, ali avaj, biće prekasno, a vreme ne možete vratiti.  #### Više nije 2012 Tada ste imali izgovor. Sada je 2020... Apsolutno NEMA razloga zašto neko sa malo radoznalosti i relativno funkcionalnim mozgom ne može da prouči šta je Bitkoin, zašto postoji, zašto je važan i zašto bi trebalo da u njega prebaci malo ličnog bogatstva. *Naročito* ako ima prijatelja poput mene ili mnoštvo Bitkoinera negde tamo. Ja više neću smarati ljude sa porukama "*zašto treba kupiti Bitkoin*". Više nije 2012. godina. Danas imamo toliko puno informacija od toliko mnogo dobrih ljudi na svim mogućim medijima, tako da NEMATE IZGOVORA da ga ignorišete ili kažete: "ali niko mi nije rekao". Ukoliko nemate da izdvojite bar malo vremena od vašeg Netflix rasporeda da biste istražili šta je ova stvar i zašto je bitna za vašu ličnu ekonomsku budućnost, onda zaslužujete to što imate. Deluje okrutno ali dobrodošao u život, mladi žutokljunče. Sada... Ako ste izdvojili malo vremena ali ste i dalje nezainteresovani ili dovoljno glupi da ga odbacite, onda zaista zaslužujete to što dolazi i ostatak ovog članka je definitivno za vas. #### Ne želim da uopšte kupite Bitkoin! Ok Aleks, ali šta ćemo sa "masovnom adopcijom"??? Pažljivo me slušajte: ##### Zabole me kurac da li će masovna adopcija doći za 10, 20, 50 ili 100 godina! Ja sam skroz za selektivnu adopciju i potpuno za dugačku igru. Tako da sam spreman da čekam. Kao u SVIM prirodnim, evolutivno funkcionalnim sistemima, oni koji seju i pomažu u izgradnji temelja bi trebalo da budu i nesrazmerno nagrađeni. Ovo je 100% fer i predivno **nejednako** (*neki od vas koji me znate ste upoznati sa mojim stavom o nejednakosti kao najprezrenijem od svih ljudskih ideala. Radi se o odvratnom idealu koji nagrađuje najgore među nama*).  **Tako da za skeptike i "neverne Tome" imam jednostavnu poruku:** Nadam se da nećete uopšte kupiti Bitkoin. *Ni danas ni bilo kada.* Nadam se da će jedini put kada budete stupili u dodir sa Bitkoinom to biti jedini način da za nešto budete isplaćeni; npr. kada budete morali da ga zaradite. Jedva čekam dan kada će mojih nekoliko hiljada satošija moći da kupi tri, četiri ili pet meseci vašeg vremena. A u međuvremenu... **Molim vas**, držite se vašeg fiat novca. **Molim vas**, držite se vaših šitkoina. Ne želim nikoga od vas "blokčejnera", šitkoinera, fiat nokoinera i vas svih ostalih klovnova koji mislite da znate bolje. Ovaj rolerkoster je specijalan, tako da zašto bih želeo da ga delim sa vama glupanderima? Zašto bih bacao bisere pred svinje? Ja verujem u *principe isključivosti.* Ovo nije "kumbaya" ili "svi smo jedno". Jebite se. Sa razlogom smo drugačiji. Napraviću sam svoj krevet i ležati u njemu. Vi napravite svoje. Kada bude došlo vreme, ja ću vam za vaše vreme plaćati satošijima zato što onda nećete imati izbora. Tada ja pobeđujem, a vi gubite. #### Kako sejete, tako žanjete Razlika između mene i vas je ta što ja **kupujem** Bitkoin sada zato što tako **želim**. Vi ćete morati da **radite** za Bitkoin sutra zato što tako **morate**. To je cena neznanja. *To* je cena arogancije. To je cena gluposti koju ćete platiti i, koliko god ovo zvuči okrutno, istina je da *zaslužujete svaki delić toga.* Svi ležimo u krevetu koji sami pravimo, a vi svoj krevet pravite sada. Neće vam samouvereni Bitkoiner reći: "lepo sam vam rekao". Nova ekonomska realnost će vam to reći umesto njega. "Lepo sam vam rekao" će vas udariti poput tone cigle kada shvatite razliku između vas i onih koji su bili razboriti, koji su marljivo štedeli, koji su uložili vreme i trud da otkriju šta je zapravo Bitkoin dok su ih svi nazivali ludacima. Neće biti sažaljenja. #### Nema više bacanja bisera pred svinje Oni koji imaju priliku da kupe nešto Bitkoina sada, a odluče da to ne urade zahvaljujući neznanju, aroganciji ili gluposti, *zaslužuju da plate sa kamatom.* Zaslužuju da trguju svoje sutrašnje dragoceno vreme i energiju za ono što su mogli da nabave danas i to bukvalno "za kikiriki". Ovde nema greške: nismo jednaki. Mi smo veoma, veoma različiti ljudi. Ja sam uložio vreme, trud i energiju **sada**, ne samo zbog sebe samog, već i da bih posadio seme i pomogao mreži. Uradio sam svoj deo. Vi ćete doći kasnije i pomoći mi da žanjem nagrade svog truda. Postojaćete da biste mi pomogli da uživam u plodovima. To će biti vaša uloga. Izabrao sam da rizikujem i steknem deo onoga zbog čega su me svi nazivali ludim zato što sam učio, verovao i shvatio **danas**, sa nadom da se izgradi bolja, poštenija i pravičnija budućnost za sve. Radeći to, neki od nas će postati džinovi i nesrazmerno bogati. I vi imate tu šansu ali je mnogi od vas neće iskoristiti. ###### *I ja sam skroz ok sa tim. Više neću bacati bisere pred svinje.* --- Ovaj članak može zvučati neprijatno ali više me zabole kurac. Sada je na vama da sami istražujete. Ovo se događa bez obzira sviđalo vam se to ili ne. Ja i hiljade drugih Bitkoinera smo pisali eseje i eseje o ovome. Neka imena sa kvalitetnim materijalom kojih se mogu setiti iz glave su: * Naravno ja * [Gigi](https://dergigi.com/) * [Robert Breedlove](https://breedlove22.medium.com/) * [Saifedean Ammous](https://saifedean.com/) Ako ste radoznali možete ih pratiti. A ovo je sjajno mesto gde možete preuzeti nekoliko odličnih radova: [The Bitcoin Times](https://bitcointimes.io/) I za kraj, ako si Bitkoiner koji ovo čita, nikada nećeš znati da li sam zloban ili samo igram 4D šah. Iskreno, nije ni bitno. Ovo se dešava. Bitkoin osvaja svet. Ekonomski darvinizam je činjenica. Sakupljajte vaše satošije, ponudite maslinovu grančicu, obratite pažnju na njihovu radoznalost ili iskru u njihovom oku kao znak da nastavite. Ukoliko toga nema ili naiđete na odbijanje, ostavite ih da se igraju kao svinje u govnima sa njihovim fiatom, deonicama ili šitkoinima. Biće nam potrebni čistači za naše citadele.

@ 6e0ea5d6:0327f353

Ascolta bene, amico mio. Admiration is always better than mere understanding! Simple understanding in a relationship is an easy, almost automatic gesture. Any woman can understand a man, tolerate his flaws, and accept his presence. But this often stems from pity, convenience, or merely the habit of having someone around. Understanding without admiration is not respect; it is resignation. A woman who only understands but does not admire may stay by your side, but she will never be truly loyal in her heart. And who wants to be merely tolerated out of pity when they could be followed with pride? Admiration, on the other hand, is the pillar that upholds any worthy relationship. It’s not just about liking someone; it’s about recognizing the value in a man's daily battles, not just his victories. A woman who truly admires you takes pride in your strength, respects your struggles, and walks beside you with her head held high. She doesn’t just accept you—she follows you to the end because she sees greatness in what you build and what you represent. Admiration is not just about affection; it’s about looking at the man beside you and feeling deep respect for who he is, what he builds, and what he stands for. Without that, what remains? Tolerance? Indifference? The woman who merely understands accepts your existence, but the one who admires follows you with pride because she sees value in your struggle, your strength, and your legacy. So forget about being “understood” as a priority. Understanding can be a mere transaction, but admiration is the true foundation of any dignified relationship. If your woman does not admire you for what you do, who you are, and what you build, she is either occupying a space she does not deserve, or you are too weak to be admired. Thank you for reading, my friend! If this message resonated with you, consider leaving your "🥃" as a token of appreciation. A toast to our family!

@ 378562cd:a6fc6773

How much better would life be if we could hit a reset button and erase computers from existence? It’s a question worth asking, especially in an age where screens dominate our attention, social interactions have been reduced to text bubbles, and Google searches have replaced critical thinking. Would we be smarter? Would life be simpler? Common sense suggests that without computers constantly thinking for us, we’d have to rely on our own intelligence a whole lot more. **What Year Would We Have to Go Back To?** To escape computers entirely, we’d have to rewind far beyond today’s digital chaos—probably to the early 20th century. While the 1940s and 1950s saw the first massive computers creeping into government and military operations, the average person had little to no interaction with them. The term “computer” wasn’t something you’d hear at the dinner table, in the classroom, or even in most workplaces. It wasn’t until the late 1970s and early 1980s—when personal computers like the Apple II and IBM PC hit the market—that computers began working their way into homes, offices, and eventually, every aspect of daily life. Before then, life was entirely hands-on. People weren’t glued to screens but engaged in the world around them. Finances were managed with checkbooks and mental math, not banking apps. Phone numbers lived in people’s heads, not in a digital contact list. If you needed directions, you either studied a map or asked someone for help. Letters were written by hand, and the act of research meant flipping through encyclopedia pages, not skimming Wikipedia. An algorithm didn’t give you information; it was earned through effort, curiosity, and real-world experience. The transition happened slowly, but once computers became mainstream, they took over with astonishing speed. What started as a tool for business efficiency soon became a crutch for everyday life, shaping how we communicate, learn, and even think. But if we could turn back time to before computers dictated our every move, would we find ourselves living richer, more connected, and perhaps even smarter lives? **How Things Were Done Without Computers** Before computers ran the world, problem-solving required actual thought. If you needed directions, you read a map or asked a local. If you wanted to research something, you visited a library or consulted an expert. People had to remember things because no cloud storage or smartphone reminder buzzed every five minutes. Work was different before computers took over. Office tasks like accounting, inventory management, and record-keeping were done manually, with pens scratching across paper and filing cabinets brimming with carefully organized documents. Sure, it took longer, but there was an attention to detail that software often lacks—errors were caught by sharp human eyes, not overlooked by buggy algorithms or buried in digital spreadsheets. Customer service meant face-to-face interactions or a polite phone call, not endless chatbot loops and automated phone menus that never seem to understand what you need. Shopping wasn’t an online transaction handled by an AI-driven algorithm—it was an experience, where store clerks knew regular customers by name and recommendations were based on conversation, not data tracking. Banking required a visit to a teller who personally handled your deposit, rather than a faceless app approving transactions in milliseconds. Even skilled trades and craftsmanship thrived without automation. Mechanics relied on their knowledge of engines, not diagnostic computers spitting out error codes. Artists and designers used their hands, not digital tablets and AI-generated imagery. Cooking was a learned skill, not a task handed off to a microwave with pre-programmed settings. Farming—one of the last truly hands-on professions—was once guided by intuition, experience, and a deep connection to the land. Farmers studied the sky, felt the moisture in the soil, and trusted generational wisdom and intuition to predict a good harvest. There were no satellite forecasts, automated irrigation systems, or genetically modified shortcuts—just nature's raw, unpredictable rhythm and the skill to work alongside it. Even leisure time was more grounded. Families gathered around a radio for evening entertainment, played board games, read books, or simply sat on the porch and talked. People weren’t glued to screens, endlessly doom-scrolling through bad news and meaningless content—they were present, engaged, and connected in ways that modern life has all but erased. **Would We Be Smarter Without Computers?** The short answer here is "Hell Yes! It’s hard to argue otherwise. The more we outsource thinking to machines, the less we need to use our brains. We no longer need to remember phone numbers, calculate tips in our heads, or even read maps. Schools teach kids how to use software but often fail to emphasize basic skills like handwriting, mental math, or deep reading. Common sense, once the backbone of decision-making, is in short supply. Why? Because computers do too much thinking for us. Instead of analyzing situations logically, people Google an answer and take it as fact. Instead of experiencing life firsthand, we experience it through a filtered, algorithm-driven feed. And instead of developing problem-solving skills, we ask AI to do it for us now. **How Would Life Work Today Without Computers?** If computers vanished overnight, the world would be thrown into chaos—at least initially. Banks would scramble to process transactions, businesses would struggle to function without automated systems, and most people—so dependent on screens for communication, navigation, and even basic problem-solving—would feel completely lost. The silence of a world without notifications, emails, and instant internet access might feel eerie at first. But after the initial shock wore off, something incredible might happen. We’d be forced to slow down, to actually live in the present rather than constantly checking in on a digital one. People would have to interact face-to-face, strengthening real-life relationships instead of shallow online connections. Communities might grow tighter, with neighbors relying on each other instead of distant customer service centers and faceless apps. The lost critical thinking, memorization, and hands-on problem-solving skills would resurface out of necessity. Work would change, too. Without computers dictating every move, businesses would have to rethink their operations. There would be less automation but more craftsmanship, less efficiency but more human intuition. Transactions would be slower but perhaps more intentional. Creativity, once overshadowed by digital shortcuts, would thrive as people relied on their own talents rather than the latest AI-generated solution. Now, picture a world where children race bikes and climb trees instead of being glued to tablets, where conversations happen over dinner tables rather than through screens. Where decisions are made based on wisdom, instinct, and experience, not whatever happens to be trending. Would life be harder? At first, sure. But would it be better? Arguably, yes. Maybe it’s time we step back and ask ourselves: Are computers running our lives, or are they ruining them? The truth is, they’re doing both. They’ve woven themselves into every aspect of our daily existence, dictating how we work, communicate, and even think. They make life more convenient, sure—but at what cost? Over time, as we hand over more control to algorithms, automation, and artificial intelligence, we risk losing the very things that make us human: deep thought, real-world problem-solving, and genuine face-to-face connection. Computers have made us more efficient, but also more dependent. They’ve expanded our access to information, yet dulled our ability to think critically. They connect us instantly across the globe, yet leave us lonelier than ever. The balance is tipping, and if we’re not careful, the very technology designed to serve us may quietly end up ruling us. What are YOUR thoughts? #asknostr

@ 4523be58:ba1facd0

# NIP-117 ## The Double Ratchet Algorithm The Double Ratchet is a key rotation algorithm for secure private messaging. It allows us to 1) communicate on Nostr without revealing metadata (who you are communicating with and when), and 2) keep your message history and future messages safe even if your main Nostr key is compromised. Additionally, it enables disappearing messages that become undecryptable when past message decryption keys are discarded after use. See also: [NIP-118](./118.md): Nostr Double Ratchet Invites ### Overview "Double ratchet" means we use 2 "ratchets": cryptographic functions that can be rotated forward, but not backward: current keys can be used to derive next keys, but not the other way around. Ratchet 1 uses Diffie-Hellman (DH) shared secrets and is rotated each time the other participant acknowledges a new key we have sent along with a previous message. Ratchet 2 generates encryption keys for each message. It rotates after every message, using the previous message's key as input (and the Ratchet 1 key when it rotates). This process ensures forward secrecy for consecutive messages from the same sender in between Ratchet 1 rotations. ## Nostr implementation We implement the Double Ratchet Algorithm on Nostr similarly to Signal's [Double Ratchet with header encryption](https://signal.org/docs/specifications/doubleratchet/#double-ratchet-with-header-encryption), but encrypting the message headers with [NIP-44](./44.md) conversation keys instead of symmetric header keys. Ratchet 1 keys are standard Nostr keys. In addition to encryption, they are also used for publishing and subscribing to messages on Nostr. As they are rotated and not linked to public Nostr identities, metadata privacy is preserved. ## Nostr event format ### Message #### Outer event ```typescript { kind: 1060, content: encryptedInnerEvent, tags: [["header", encryptedHeader]], pubkey: ratchetPublicKey, created_at, id, sig } ``` We subscribe to Double Ratchet events based on author public keys which are ephemeral — not used for other purposes than the Double Ratchet session. We use the regular event kind `1060` to differentiate it from other DM kinds, retrieval of which may be restricted by relays. The encrypted header contains our next nostr public key, our previous sending chain length and the current message number. #### Inner event Inner events must be [NIP-59](https://github.com/nostr-protocol/nips/blob/master/59.md) Rumors (unsigned Nostr events) allowing plausible deniability. With established Nostr event kinds, clients can implement all kinds of features, such as replies, reactions, and encrypted file sharing in private messages. Direct message and encrypted file messages are defined in [NIP-17](https://github.com/nostr-protocol/nips/blob/master/17.md). ## Algorithm Signal's [Double Ratchet with header encryption](https://signal.org/docs/specifications/doubleratchet/#double-ratchet-with-header-encryption) document is a comprehensive description and explanation of the algorithm. In this NIP, the algorithm is only described in code, in order to highlight differences to the Signal implementation. ### External functions We use the following Nostr functions ([NIP-01](https://github.com/nostr-protocol/nips/blob/master/01.md)): - `generateSecretKey()` for creating Nostr private keys - `finalizeEvent(partialEvent, secretKey)` for creating valid Nostr events with pubkey, id and signature We use [NIP-44](https://github.com/nostr-protocol/nips/blob/master/44.md) functions for encryption: - `nip44.encrypt` - `nip44.decrypt` - `nip44.getConversationKey` [NIP-59](https://github.com/nostr-protocol/nips/blob/master/59.md): - createRumor Key derivation function: ```typescript export function kdf( input1: Uint8Array, input2: Uint8Array = new Uint8Array(32), numOutputs: number = 1 ): Uint8Array[] { const prk = hkdf_extract(sha256, input1, input2); const outputs: Uint8Array[] = []; for (let i = 1; i <= numOutputs; i++) { outputs.push(hkdf_expand(sha256, prk, new Uint8Array([i]), 32)); } return outputs; } ``` ### Session state With this information you can start or continue a Double Ratchet session. Save it locally after each sent and received message. ```typescript interface SessionState { theirCurrentNostrPublicKey?: string; theirNextNostrPublicKey: string; ourCurrentNostrKey?: KeyPair; ourNextNostrKey: KeyPair; rootKey: Uint8Array; receivingChainKey?: Uint8Array; sendingChainKey?: Uint8Array; sendingChainMessageNumber: number; receivingChainMessageNumber: number; previousSendingChainMessageCount: number; // Cache of message & header keys for handling out-of-order messages // Indexed by Nostr public key, which you can use to resubscribe to unreceived messages skippedKeys: { [pubKey: string]: { headerKeys: Uint8Array[]; messageKeys: { [msgIndex: number]: Uint8Array }; }; }; } ``` ### Initialization Alice is the chat initiator and Bob is the recipient. Ephemeral keys were exchanged earlier. ```typescript static initAlice( theirEphemeralPublicKey: string, ourEphemeralNostrKey: KeyPair, sharedSecret: Uint8Array ) { // Generate ephemeral key for the next ratchet step const ourNextNostrKey = generateSecretKey(); // Use ephemeral ECDH to derive rootKey and sendingChainKey const [rootKey, sendingChainKey] = kdf( sharedSecret, nip44.getConversationKey(ourEphemeralNostrKey.private, theirEphemeralPublicKey), 2 ); return { rootKey, theirNextNostrPublicKey: theirEphemeralPublicKey, ourCurrentNostrKey: ourEphemeralNostrKey, ourNextNostrKey, receivingChainKey: undefined, sendingChainKey, sendingChainMessageNumber: 0, receivingChainMessageNumber: 0, previousSendingChainMessageCount: 0, skippedKeys: {}, }; } static initBob( theirEphemeralPublicKey: string, ourEphemeralNostrKey: KeyPair, sharedSecret: Uint8Array ) { return { rootKey: sharedSecret, theirNextNostrPublicKey: theirEphemeralPublicKey, // Bob has no ‘current’ key at init time — Alice will send to next and trigger a ratchet step ourCurrentNostrKey: undefined, ourNextNostrKey: ourEphemeralNostrKey, receivingChainKey: undefined, sendingChainKey: undefined, sendingChainMessageNumber: 0, receivingChainMessageNumber: 0, previousSendingChainMessageCount: 0, skippedKeys: {}, }; } ``` ### Sending messages ```typescript sendEvent(event: Partial<UnsignedEvent>) { const innerEvent = nip59.createRumor(event) const [header, encryptedData] = this.ratchetEncrypt(JSON.stringify(innerEvent)); const conversationKey = nip44.getConversationKey(this.state.ourCurrentNostrKey.privateKey, this.state.theirNextNostrPublicKey); const encryptedHeader = nip44.encrypt(JSON.stringify(header), conversationKey); const outerEvent = finalizeEvent({ content: encryptedData, kind: MESSAGE_EVENT_KIND, tags: [["header", encryptedHeader]], created_at: Math.floor(now / 1000) }, this.state.ourCurrentNostrKey.privateKey); // Publish outerEvent on Nostr, store inner locally if needed return {outerEvent, innerEvent}; } ratchetEncrypt(plaintext: string): [Header, string] { // Rotate sending chain key const [newSendingChainKey, messageKey] = kdf(this.state.sendingChainKey!, new Uint8Array([1]), 2); this.state.sendingChainKey = newSendingChainKey; const header: Header = { number: this.state.sendingChainMessageNumber++, nextPublicKey: this.state.ourNextNostrKey.publicKey, previousChainLength: this.state.previousSendingChainMessageCount }; return [header, nip44.encrypt(plaintext, messageKey)]; } ``` ### Receiving messages ```typescript handleNostrEvent(e: NostrEvent) { const [header, shouldRatchet, isSkipped] = this.decryptHeader(e); if (!isSkipped) { if (this.state.theirNextNostrPublicKey !== header.nextPublicKey) { // Received a new key from them this.state.theirCurrentNostrPublicKey = this.state.theirNextNostrPublicKey; this.state.theirNextNostrPublicKey = header.nextPublicKey; this.updateNostrSubscriptions() } if (shouldRatchet) { this.skipMessageKeys(header.previousChainLength, e.pubkey); this.ratchetStep(header.nextPublicKey); } } decryptHeader(event: any): [Header, boolean, boolean] { const encryptedHeader = event.tags[0][1]; if (this.state.ourCurrentNostrKey) { const conversationKey = nip44.getConversationKey(this.state.ourCurrentNostrKey.privateKey, event.pubkey); try { const header = JSON.parse(nip44.decrypt(encryptedHeader, conversationKey)) as Header; return [header, false, false]; } catch (error) { // Decryption with currentSecret failed, try with nextSecret } } const nextConversationKey = nip44.getConversationKey(this.state.ourNextNostrKey.privateKey, event.pubkey); try { const header = JSON.parse(nip44.decrypt(encryptedHeader, nextConversationKey)) as Header; return [header, true, false]; } catch (error) { // Decryption with nextSecret also failed } const skippedKeys = this.state.skippedKeys[event.pubkey]; if (skippedKeys?.headerKeys) { // Try skipped header keys for (const key of skippedKeys.headerKeys) { try { const header = JSON.parse(nip44.decrypt(encryptedHeader, key)) as Header; return [header, false, true]; } catch (error) { // Decryption failed, try next secret } } } throw new Error("Failed to decrypt header with current and skipped header keys"); } ratchetDecrypt(header: Header, ciphertext: string, nostrSender: string): string { const plaintext = this.trySkippedMessageKeys(header, ciphertext, nostrSender); if (plaintext) return plaintext; this.skipMessageKeys(header.number, nostrSender); // Rotate receiving key const [newReceivingChainKey, messageKey] = kdf(this.state.receivingChainKey!, new Uint8Array([1]), 2); this.state.receivingChainKey = newReceivingChainKey; this.state.receivingChainMessageNumber++; return nip44.decrypt(ciphertext, messageKey); } ratchetStep(theirNextNostrPublicKey: string) { this.state.previousSendingChainMessageCount = this.state.sendingChainMessageNumber; this.state.sendingChainMessageNumber = 0; this.state.receivingChainMessageNumber = 0; this.state.theirNextNostrPublicKey = theirNextNostrPublicKey; // 1st step yields the new conversation key they used const conversationKey1 = nip44.getConversationKey(this.state.ourNextNostrKey.privateKey, this.state.theirNextNostrPublicKey!); // and our corresponding receiving chain key const [theirRootKey, receivingChainKey] = kdf(this.state.rootKey, conversationKey1, 2); this.state.receivingChainKey = receivingChainKey; // Rotate our Nostr key this.state.ourCurrentNostrKey = this.state.ourNextNostrKey; const ourNextSecretKey = generateSecretKey(); this.state.ourNextNostrKey = { publicKey: getPublicKey(ourNextSecretKey), privateKey: ourNextSecretKey }; // 2nd step yields the new conversation key we'll use const conversationKey2 = nip44.getConversationKey(this.state.ourNextNostrKey.privateKey, this.state.theirNextNostrPublicKey!); // And our corresponding sending chain key const [rootKey, sendingChainKey] = kdf(theirRootKey, conversationKey2, 2); this.state.rootKey = rootKey; this.state.sendingChainKey = sendingChainKey; } skipMessageKeys(until: number, nostrSender: string) { if (this.state.receivingChainMessageNumber + MAX_SKIP < until) { throw new Error("Too many skipped messages"); } if (!this.state.skippedKeys[nostrSender]) { this.state.skippedKeys[nostrSender] = { headerKeys: [], messageKeys: {} }; if (this.state.ourCurrentNostrKey) { const currentSecret = nip44.getConversationKey(this.state.ourCurrentNostrKey.privateKey, nostrSender); this.state.skippedKeys[nostrSender].headerKeys.push(currentSecret); } const nextSecret = nip44.getConversationKey(this.state.ourNextNostrKey.privateKey, nostrSender); this.state.skippedKeys[nostrSender].headerKeys.push(nextSecret); } while (this.state.receivingChainMessageNumber < until) { const [newReceivingChainKey, messageKey] = kdf(this.state.receivingChainKey!, new Uint8Array([1]), 2); this.state.receivingChainKey = newReceivingChainKey; this.state.skippedKeys[nostrSender].messageKeys[this.state.receivingChainMessageNumber] = messageKey; this.state.receivingChainMessageNumber++; } } trySkippedMessageKeys(header: Header, ciphertext: string, nostrSender: string): string | null { const skippedKeys = this.state.skippedKeys[nostrSender]; if (!skippedKeys) return null; const messageKey = skippedKeys.messageKeys[header.number]; if (!messageKey) return null; delete skippedKeys.messageKeys[header.number]; if (Object.keys(skippedKeys.messageKeys).length === 0) { delete this.state.skippedKeys[nostrSender]; } return nip44.decrypt(ciphertext, messageKey); } ```